Viewing 4 posts - 1 through 4 (of 4 total)
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  • #2801717
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Any thoughts on the remaining races on day one?

    14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 3m 1f
    2019 Winner: BEWARE THE BEAR 10/1
    Trainer – Nicky Henderson
    Jockey – Jeremiah McGrath

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · 15 of the last 20 winners were officially rated 143 or less
    · 14 of the last 19 came from the top 4 in the betting
    · 16 of the last 20 winners returned 11/1 or shorter

    Negatives…
    · Horses aged 11 or older are just 2 from 48 to even get placed
    · Paul Nicholls-trained horses – currently 0 from 23

    Betting (14th February 2020)
    Vinndication 8/1
    The Conditional 10/1
    Pym 12/1
    Ok Corral 14/1
    Simply The Betts 14/1
    .
    .
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    16:10 OLBG Mares’ Hurdle 2m 4f
    2019 Winner: ROKSANA 10/1
    Trainer – Dan Skelton
    Jockey – Harry Skelton

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 10 of the last 12 runnings
    · 7 of the last 12 favourites have won
    · Willie Mullins have trained 9 of the last 11 winners

    Negatives…
    · Avoid front-runners
    · All 27 runners to wear headgear have been beaten (just 1 placed)

    Betting (14th February 2020)
    Benie Des Dieux 5/6
    Honeysuckle 15/8
    Stormy Ireland 8/1
    Roksana 10/1
    Laurina 14/1
    .
    .
    .
    16:50 Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase 2m 4½f
    2019 Winner: A PLUS TARD
    Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
    Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · 11 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
    · 14 of the last 15 winners raced in the last 45 days
    · Respect 7 year-olds

    Negatives…
    · Avoid front-runners
    · All 27 runners to wear headgear have been beaten (just 1 placed)

    Betting (14th February 2020)
    Imperial Aura 8/1
    City Island 10/1
    Hold The Note 12/1
    Chosen Mate 14/1
    Galvin 14/1
    .
    .
    .
    17:30 National Hunt Chase 3m6f
    2019 Winner: LE BREUIL 14/1
    Trainer – Ben Pauling
    Jockey – Jamie Codd

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · 11 of the last 18 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
    · 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
    · Favourites have won 3 of the last 10 runnings

    Negatives…
    · 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 80 since 1989
    · Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race – currently 0 from 18

    Betting (14th February 2020)
    Carefully Selected 7/2
    Champagne Classic 9/2
    Danny Whizzbang 14/1
    Battleoverdoyen 16/1
    Sam Brown 16/1

    #2801865
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Champagne Classic is in the National Hunt Chase, along with Ravenhill and a couple of others. I will have to finalise plans with Michael and Eddie [O’Leary], but if I had my way, Champagne Classic will be going for the National Hunt Chase. I think the race is made for him. It just depends on how their ammunition is looking for the RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase.”

    Gordon Elliott

    #2801896
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Benie Des Dieux is in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle. She was a very unlucky loser there last year. She is also in the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle. I would like to go back and get a bit of unfinished business done. You are guaranteed softer ground on the first day of The Festival and that is a big plus for her. She is a hell of a mare.

    “I thought what she did in France last year [winning French Champion Hurdle] was probably completely missed by people over here. She beat their unbeaten mare De Bon Coeur and in France I don’t think they could believe what she did at Auteuil. Had she stood up in Cheltenham last year, maybe things would be different, but then again maybe they would be the same because I am a creature of habit.

    “I curtailed her chasing career because it is easier to win money and keep them sound over hurdles. She has not raced a lot and that is because I had soundness issues with her. It is all very well planning difficult races for her, but I have got her to a stage now where I can run her two or three times a year, and I would like to stay at that. If she ever went chasing again, she could line up in a Gold Cup any day of the week. Three miles and two furlongs would not be any trouble to her.

    Stormy Ireland has booked her ticket for the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle. Her win at Naas was very good and I was very pleased. We tend to let her do what she wants to do and that is the way she likes to run. She is a bit more relaxed now, but she does like to be there or thereabouts.

    Willie Mullins

    #2801988
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Price Update (Monday 24th February)

    14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 3m 1f

    Vinndication 15/2
    The Conditional 10
    Mister Malarky 14
    Who Dares Wins 16
    Champagne Classic 20
    Discorama 20
    Elwood 20
    Fitzhenry 20
    Galvin 20
    Kildisart 20
    La Bague Au Roi 20
    Secret Investor 20

    16:10 Mares’ Hurdle 2m 4f

    Benie Des Dieux 4/5
    Honeysuckle 9/4
    Stormy Ireland 8
    Roksana 10
    Verdana Blue 14

    16:50 Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase 2m 4½f

    Imperial Aura 8
    Galvin 10
    Hold The Note 12
    Chosen Mate 14
    Good Boy Bobby 14

    17:30 National Hunt Chase 3m6f

    Carefully Selected7/2
    Champagne Classic 4
    Copperhead 8
    Battleoverdoyen 14
    Two For Gold 16

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