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  • #2801724
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Any thoughts on the remaining races on day two?

    14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f
    2019 Winner: WILLIAM HENRY (28/1)
    Trainer – Nicky Henderson
    Jockey – Nico de Boinville

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · 11 of the last 15 were 2nd season hurdlers
    · 9 of the last 11 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
    · 11 of the last 14 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting

    Negatives…
    · No winning favourite in the last 16 years
    · Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 305 to even place since 1999

    Betting (14th February 2020)
    King Roland 10/1
    Birchdale 12/1
    Janidil 14/1
    Not Many Left 14/1
    Protektorat 14/1
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    16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 7f
    2019 Winner: TIGER ROLL 5/4 fav
    Trainer – Gordon Elliott
    Jockey – Keith Donoghue

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · The Irish have won 13 of the last 15 runnings
    · Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
    · 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top three in the betting

    Negatives…
    · Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
    · Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 97

    Betting (14th February 2020)
    Tiger Roll 13/8
    Easysland 10/3
    Yanworth 9/1
    Elegant Star 12/1
    Rathvinden 12/1
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    16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m ½f
    2019 Winner: BAND OF OUTLAWS7/2 fav
    Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
    Jockey – J J Slevin

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · 11 of the last 15 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
    · French bred horses have a good record
    · 7 of the last 9 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap

    Negatives…
    · Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
    · Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 14 (just 1 placed in top 5 too)

    Betting (14th February 2020)

    Aramax 8/1
    Wolf Prince 12/1
    A Wave Of The Sea 16/1
    Cerberus 16/1
    Palladium 16/1
    .
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    17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper 2m ½f
    2019 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN 2/1 fav
    Trainer – Gordon Elliott
    Jockey – Jamie Codd

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · 25 of the last 27 had won last time out
    · Respect Irish-trained runners (20 from 36)
    · 4 of the last 10 winners were won by UK-based trainers

    Negatives…
    · Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
    · 4 year-olds are 1 from 60 since 2000

    Betting (14th February 2020)
    Appreciate It 2/1
    Panic Attack 10/1
    Ballyadam 12/1
    Israel Champ 12/1
    Ferny Hollow 14/1

    #2801803
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Interesting chat on Twitter (Sunday 16th February)

    Were we all happy with Tiger Rolls’ comeback today at Navan?

    Who do we fancy for the Cross Country? Anyone taking him on in the National? #racehour

    ”Grand comeback travelled well and will improve for it no doubt. Purely on price I fancy Yanworth for the Cross Country at about 8/1. As for the Grand National I’m hoping Discorama could come back to form and run well.”

    ”He’ll win the Cross Country but I’ll have to be against him at that price for the National.”

    ”That was a perfect prep run for Tiger Roll today. That definitely gave him a good blow in his first race. His jumping over hurdles was excellent. He will win Cross Country race at Cheltenham. GN I’m not sure about winning it. There other very good ones in that field.”

    ”Great first run done as well as expected would love him to clean up again and has a huge chance , main dangers are easyland cross country and kimberlite candy national personally.”

    ”It was a decent prep for the cross country! Hes obviously the one to beat but Easylands is a real danger and should be an interesting match between the two!
    The National under that weight he has to be taken on surely!”

    ”Je suis Easyland.”

    #2801805
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Gavin Cromwell has been forced to rule leading Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle contender Wolf Prince out of the Cheltenham Festival because of injury.
    From Racing Post

    Wolf Prince, who was second in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown behind A Wave Of The Sea, has picked up a knock that will rule him out of Cheltenham.

    Cromwell said on Monday: “It’s disappointing. He got a small knock at Leopardstown and I suppose we were being a bit optimistic and were hoping he’d be okay in time for Cheltenham.

    “Unfortunately, Cheltenham looks as though it will come a bit too soon and we had to make that decision this morning.”

    The injury is not thought to be career-threatening and Cromwell is hoping the dual hurdles winner can race again this season.

    He added: “I’m not sure whether he’ll be back in time for the other spring festivals. I wouldn’t rule anything in or out at this stage.”

    #2801836
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Might Bite

    “He will hopefully go for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase. He had not trained with the other horses before Newbury. He had been doing his own thing, jumping all sorts of spooky things around here, and he absolutely loved it. I would like to get two practice sessions into him over the cross country course beforehand.”
    Nicky Henderson

    #2801840
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Palladium and Fraser Island are my two for the Boodles (Fred Winter) Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. I don’t have anything for the JCB Triumph Hurdle. I knew early on that I did not have a star among the juveniles but, then again, neither did I this time last year – then Pentland Hills and Fusil Raffles came along. That won’t happen again this year I can assure you.
    Nicky Henderson

    #2801864
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Tiger Roll

    Elliott said: “Tiger Roll and Out Sam will run in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase. I was very happy with the way Tiger Roll ran on Sunday and, as you saw this morning, he has come out of the race very well. He would be the one horse we are all looking forward to during Cheltenham week.

    “I actually thought that, given the ground, he would not run as well as he did on Sunday, as he had only been back cantering since 1 January. I thought he showed a lot of zest and jumped very well. He looked the winner between the third and second last, and then got tired. It was great to see him back and running so well.

    “He will probably go over to Cheltenham now for a school [over the cross country course] and then it will be all systems go for The Festival.

    “We are very lucky to have a horse like him. The odds are against him in the Grand National – four and a quarter miles, 30 fences and 40 runners. I am not worried about top weight. The handicapper had his job to do and he can’t have done any more than that.

    “We may run him in Punchestown this year, but if he ran in a Gold Cup, I don’t think he would go out on the last circuit. He is just that type of horse, even though his rating suggests that he should be bang there in it. Hopefully, I am wrong, but I think he enjoys doing different things and jumping different types of fences.

    “If he is one piece, he will stay in training next season and there is no reason why he can’t have a go at the cross country race again. He is 10 years of age and Michael O’Leary is not buying any more horses, so we need to keep as many of them in as we can!
    Gordon Elliott

    #2801905
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Appreciate It has done everything right on last couple of runs. He looks to have a big chance in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper. Although he is by Jeremy, he is a big chasing type. He gallops all day and has a huge cruising speed, which is probably what you need for Cheltenham. He would have to be one of our main hopes of the week. Ferny Hollow could also go here. He is entered at Fairyhouse this weekend, so we will see what happens there. Five Bar Brian had a good run in England, had a bit of trouble, and he ended up over here. He won the other day and I think there is a lot of improvement. I think connections would like to have a runner at The Festival. We will see how he is. To me, Eric Bloodaxe looked the best bumper horse in Ireland until his run the last day.

    Willie Mullins

    #2801993
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Price Update (Monday 24th February)
    14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

    Protektorat 12
    Bachasson 16
    Dame De Compagnie 16
    Birchdale 20
    Burrows Edge 20
    Canardier 20
    Ciel De Neige 20
    Conflated 20
    Easywork 20
    Front View 20
    Harry Senior 20
    Janidil 20
    McFabulous 20
    Tamaroc Du Mathan 20
    Thosedaysaregone 20
    Traffic Fluide 20

    16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 7f

    Tiger Roll 11/10
    Easysland 3
    Elegant Star 12
    Rathvinden 12
    Urgent De Gregaine 12

    16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m ½f

    Aramax 7
    Mick Pastor 12
    Thyme White 14
    A Wave Of The Sea 16
    Cerberus 16
    Palladium 16
    Saint DOroux 16
    Sir Psycho 16
    Tronador 16

    17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper 2m ½f

    Appreciate It 2
    Panic Attack 10
    Ferny Hollow 12
    Israel Champ 12
    Queens Brook 14
    Ballyadam 16
    Farouk DAlene 16
    Fire Attack 16

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