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There aren’t always syndicates (I didn’t do one today for instance), and when there are they’ve sold out quickly enough.
The best way to be alerted about them is to follow @geegeez_uk on twitter.
Friday was a very early falling off of the Win Pick 6 wagon, but for good reason. The guarantee was £40,000 and I had a decent feeling about the ‘shape’ of the races.
FRIDAY 20th JULY 2018
Newbury Win Pick 6: Newbury is one of those courses where you often get wide open maiden/novice events in which it pays to go deep, and I was hanging our hat on that happening again. Not in the opening leg, which looked to be between the top two (second favourite won), but in leg two where there were 7/2 joint favourites. I went seven deep and we were rewarded with a 20/1 winner (beating a 16/1 shot, also on our ticket).
I also went seven deep in leg three, though this time the 2nd fav won. Still we had a nice position going into leg 4 in which we had just the favourite, Natalie’s Joy. I had said on twitter that it was my intention to get our stakes back via cash out if we were still going at half way, and that’s what I did.
40% of the ticket was cashed out for 90% of original stakes. We thus had 60% running into the last three legs.
Natalie’s Joy was a good winner, so we were still rolling into the penultimate race and it was shaping up to be a big dividend. [We had played for 50p’s, which were quarter stakes, so were attacking an original £10k pot, reduced to £6k after the cashout – by which time it was basically a free go].
Natalie meant we were guaranteed at least a 4/6 consolation and, after leg five, the best we could aim at was a 5/6 consolation as our three of the five runners ran 3rd/4th/5th behind the 10/1 outsider of the field. Bummer.
We had three of the five runners in the last as well, including the winner, who was the evens favourite. That impacted the consolation dividend but we still made a profit on the bet.
Betting anywhere else – totepool, etc – five out of six is a losing bet, or at best pays a scant consolation in jurisdictions like America. But here we were able to be ‘wrong’, albeit mostly right, and still make money on the wager thanks to cash out and consolation dividends.
Stakes £661.50 Returned £748.40
Still treading water in truth, but the value of the trading options were well highligted by today…
After a day off on Wednesday. it was back to biz on Thursday and a couple of Place Pick 6’s.
THURSDAY 19th JULY 2018
Hamilton Place Pick 6: There looked to be a few vulnerable favourites on this card, just the sort I like to go at. But, as has been the case most of this week, they largely managed to find the frame anyway. Thus, the 20/1 second in the opener, and 6/1 and 9/1 winners in legs 4 and 5 were undone by strongly fancied horses falling in with them. Getting the 2nd fav out of the frame in the last was a result, though, and we made a modest profit on the bet. Stakes £192 Returned £327.96
Leicester Place Pick 6: A bombproof 1/16 shot in the opener made this a Pick 5 to all intents and purposes. Two out of three in leg 2 and the jolly nowhere looked promising. But it was a parade of frustration thereafter, as nothing but favourites from some pretty wide coverage made the frame for us. A return, but a loss on the bet. Stakes £180 Returned £65.60
On the day: Staked £372 Returned: £393.56
Got to keep chipping away.
- This reply was modified 1 year, 8 months ago by Matt Bisogno.
Sorry ban894, but Colossus make it easy to share on twitter. I will say that syndicates will generally go up around 11am so it’s worth looking out then.
Thanks also for your interest.
Just catching up on yesterday’s events, as I was actually at Beverley for the irishbigracetrends.com Handicap and, more specifically, to catch up with my mate Tony McCormick – who runs said website – and his clan. Excellent fun as always.
TUESDAY 17th JULY 2018
Beverley Place Pick 6: This looked a competitive, if low grade, card, and so it transpired. We missed a couple of nice results in the first two races, but went through with two lines nevertheless. Leg 3 played out well with the winner and the third, and the well touted favourite, Foxy Boy, out of the frame (now 20 runs without a win!). Leg 4 was the first of two bankers, the odds-on Altra Vita bidding for a four-timer for Sir Mark Prescott, a trainer in excellent form and with a very very good record with LTO winners. Alas, the horse seemed to resent the very firm ground – not the only one who failed to cope with it – and veered wildly off a true line in the final furlong. It would be a surprise (to me at least) if we see this horse back in the near future. Naturally, the other two legs were landed.
A point on this, though it may sound a little “I’m all right, Jack”. I had a couple of other bets running through Altra Vita, and so I laid it for a place on Betfair at 1.27. It was a cheap insurance play and, as it turned out, saved me a few quid. I say this not to gloat (obviously), but rather to suggest to other players that it is a solid strategy in the second half of the sequence (or earlier if you’ve had a nice result early doors knocking out a lot of tickets/units).
One other tactical point here. These syndicates are ‘caveman’ tickets. That is, they’re a single ticket covering short-priced and long-priced, strong and weaker fancies, equally. Until I’m able to link tickets in the syndicate – something I’ve suggested to the Colossus guys – I adopt the following play when I like the favourite but don’t want to go out if it gets beaten out of the frame. Basically, I include the racecard number of the favourite and also ‘unnamed favourite’, as well as any other weaker fancies in the race. This way, if the jolly hits the board, I have a double line (specifically nominated horse, and unnamed favourite) from the race. Hopefully that makes vague sense: it’s essentially a means of managing the ‘unsophisticated’ nature of a caveman perm. £180 staked, £0 returned.
Killarney Win Pick 6: For some reason which, with hindsight I can’t really justify, I thought we’d have a crack at what looked a very trappy card with only a £10,000 guarantee. A 20/1 O’Brien second string in the opener confined this to the dusty bin and, though it was a lesson others paid to learn along with me, I think I’m comfortable that it will be a case of picking and choosing slots for the Win6 (most likely when there’s a solid rollover and/or some chalky looking races to play around). So, no more Win Pick 6’s for now. £194.40 stakes, £0 returned.
No syndicates on Wednesday as I have other commitments, but there will be something on Thursday. I’ll tweet out on the geegeez_uk handle to anyone who might be interested.
Hoping to bring a few people along for the fun ride, jashmeade. Bit bumpy today, but on we go.
Sorry, not checked in for, well, ages actually.
Draw doesn’t help with hurdles as there isn’t any draw – i.e. they line up at a tape rather than go into starting stalls.
Pace is really important though. There’s lots of tutorial on pace on your My Geegeez page. Strongly recommend you look at that.
Interesting stuff, this, Steve. Have you got any Profit/Loss overall figures. The strike rate is much less important than P/L I’d say.
OK, fair enough, Paul – I’ll butt back out again now!!
[Hope you’re keeping well]
Just for info, Paul, I recorded results to BSP. It’s a figure everyone can get, but of course it’s up to you. Just wanted to clarify that in case of doubt.
Whilst I would personally (MUCH) prefer racing to be the primary focus of conversation on the forum, and indeed in this interesting thread, I can assure you the reply wasn’t blocked because of trying to sell something. It may not have been accepted if it had a web address in it however.
If you have further problems, please email it to me and I will post it up.
My first time checking in for a good while, though I do follow the posts via email.
A couple of points from my side:
1. I’m afraid I won’t be able to updae results this season simply due to the ever-increasing pressures on my time. If any regular follower of the thread fancies picking that task up – for the turf only I might suggest – please feel free.
2. I asked Peter May, the man behind the numbers, if he had any advice for using the 2yo figures early season. His reply was:
“look for raced horses top-rated over 60, they tend to do well up to the end of June”
They’ll be flagged as a matter of course on here, because all 2yo races before end June are (I think) 5f. It’ll be interesting to watch.
Hope all are keeping well and, as always, huge kudos and gratitude to Paul for his ongoing commitment to flagging qualifiers. Superb effort.
Great way to start the New Year, Tony!
Well done mate!!
Nice job, Paul. Thank you so much for keeping the wheels turning on this. Here’s hoping that the New Year brings a touch more consistency to the AW figures; that said, history suggests reducing stakes may be prudent. I’ll be waiting for the return of the turf personally.
On a more general note, Happy New Year to all. Wishing you health and happiness. (Profit is very much a secondary consideration, though I wish you that too!)