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  • in reply to: Tuesday 7th july #2813307
    Janves
    Member

    I don’t have much as did not have time yesterday.
    12:15 Sarvan 5/2 EW 3pl@1/5 purely because it’s a good bet from maths point of view (bad ew race)
    13:15 Zlatam 15/2 EW 4PL@1/5

    in reply to: sunday 5th july #2813286
    Janves
    Member

    use imgur.com, upload as hidden and copy the link of the pink and simply past it it, just the link, nothing else (basically CTRL+C and CTRL+V in here)

    in reply to: Monday 6 July #2813272
    Janves
    Member

    Now this is tough, really good bet on Second Collection and she blew the start. Rough day today.

    in reply to: Monday 6 July #2813268
    Janves
    Member

    I hate it when you know your pick has no chance right after leaving the stalls 🤦‍♂️😂

    in reply to: sunday 5th july #2813262
    Janves
    Member

    Definitely agree, bankroll management is very important as well as staking plan. There are many types of staking plans (kelly criterion, flat staking, staking to win X amount, etc.), but people have to understand one thing, good staking plan only reduces the variance, in long term, different staking plans will achieve very similar results.

    I prefer flat staking for my horse racing bets as it is the easiest system to find out if you have any kind of edge or not and it’s very simple.

    For my advantage play bets (boosts, request a bet markets, golf, EW value bets based on BF odds and many more) I use 25% kelly (1 kelly is too aggressive). For those who never heard about kelly criterion, it’s a system which takes into account your bankroll, edge and odds of the selection to calculate the amount you should bet. It is ideal system, which should ensure to maximise the profit while reducing the chance of going bust. It has 2 disadvantages though, you have to know your edge, e.g. expected value and it takes longer to recover losing runs. Thinking about it, there is one more drawdown and that is placing multiple bets while others still haven’t settled.

    in reply to: Monday 6 July #2813261
    Janves
    Member

    Hiya Gmd and welcome, hope we will see you here more often

    Good afternoon everybody

    For me today:
    Ayr
    13:40 Muscika 9/2
    14:45 Alix James EW 3PL@1/5 5/1
    15:15 Hard Solution 5/1
    15:45 Secretarial EW 3PL@1/5 6/1
    Windsor
    16:40 Perfect Sunrise EW 3PL@1/5 14/1
    17:15 Second Collection EW 3PL@1/5 11/1
    17:45 Imperial Fora EW 3PL@1/5 10/1
    Thirsk:
    16:55 Chocoholic EW 4PL@1/5 18/1 (Bet365 EW extra)

    Good luck everybody

    in reply to: sunday 5th july #2813214
    Janves
    Member

    Hey guys,

    right, 3rd try 😀

    I always say: If the value is king, then volume is the queen 😉

    To illustrate my point, imagine you have 20% edge (you can take that from your long term yield, e.g. for every £1 you bet, you make 20p profit) and average odds you bet at are 5.00. After 100 of bets, there is whopping 40% chance of you being in red numbers. Even after 500 bets, there is roughly 10% chance of showing loss. That’s maths, it can really happen. That is one of the reasons, why people give up.

    Now, for another example, imagine we live in perfect world, where the maths knows no randomness. You have 3 bets for a day: one at 3.00, one at 4.00 and one at 8.00. Their BSP will show as 4.00, 4.5 and 5.2. Even though the first two bets were bad as they aren’t beating BSP, the last big steamer will make up for it and if you did these 3 bets every day, you would still show profit over the long term. Sometimes the bad bet wins, sometimes the good ones loses. In fact, in this example, both of the bad bets would still win more often than the good one. Unfortunately we do not live in the world where our steamers always win and drifters always lose.

    I am by no means trying to change someone’s betting style, because people should bet within their comfort zone. I just think people should be at least aware of these things.

    I wanted to post my results since 1st of June, it includes all bets, system ones (picked evening before the race) and action bets (which are all bets I pick on a day of racing). I made slightly over 400 bets, roughly 10/day. By no means they were all good, in fact they beat BSP only 50% of a time, but where they beat the BSP, it is more then the difference when they don’t. Note there is a p-value, which is 0.787. P-value indicates, how likely the result was achieved by a pure chance. In this case it is 7.87%, still not great as you want it under 5% and closer to 0% the better. There is also Archie score, which says the same just in a slightly different way. Anything above 10 is basically saying there is 0% chance. Now, 400 bets is by no means enough and one bad run will change it, but at least this gives an idea, how you’re really doing and can support you, when you get on that slightly bad run. And remember, it will come. Your worst bad run is always in the future!!! But my point is, you can clearly see 2 bad runs which lasted about 20-30 bets. If you back 2 selections per day, that’s two weeks!!! Obviously nothing changes in terms of monetary value of the bad run, it just does not take that long.

    View post on imgur.com

    Cheers,

    Janves

    in reply to: sunday 5th july #2813212
    Janves
    Member

    FFS, I posted twice already and there is nothing grrrr

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by Janves.
    in reply to: sunday 5th july #2813198
    Janves
    Member

    I cannot complain.

    I want to ask a question guys as I noticed you always pick only a few horses. Why is that?

    I do not mean it bad in any way, just curious what is the reason behind it. Obviously there are days, even when I cannot pick much, but in my eyes, focusing on only the best bets makes you miss a few. Yes, they might be speculative, however if you have an edge, in a long term, they will prove good.

    Don’t take it as a criticism, it’s a genuine question.

    (I am probably paranoid of people taking the question in a wrong way, but that what social media do, so hope you guys won’t)

    janves

    in reply to: sunday 5th july #2813191
    Janves
    Member

    Afternoon guys,

    Here are mine with odds as of placed with no R4 included.
    Have to type as pic does not wrok for some reason
    Haydock
    13:00 Brad The Brief 6/1
    13:30 Well Funded EW 4PL@1/4 14/1
    15:15 Deja EW 5PL@1/5 7/1
    Sandown
    13:15 Macho Pride EW 3@1/5 8/1
    13:50 Sandown Liberty Beach
    15:00 Zwayyan EW 3PL@1/5 25/1
    15:35 Ghayyath 11/5
    Doncaster
    14:15 Parikarma EW 4PL@1/5 11/1
    14:50 Doncaster Newbolt 7/1

    Again, going for quite a few.

    Good Luck to you all guys

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by Janves.
    • This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by Janves.
    • This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by Janves.
    in reply to: Saturday 4th July #2813184
    Janves
    Member

    Quickly checking who finished behind serpentine in that maiden

    in reply to: Saturday 4th July #2813183
    Janves
    Member

    I have (had) for Haydock
    12:00 Blazing Hot 5/2, I switched off the video right after the start where he was slow from the stall and squeezed so knew he has no chance
    14:40 Mustarrid EW 4PL@1/5 22/1
    16:25 First Impression 4/1
    16:25 Zegalo 14/1

    in reply to: wednesday 1st july #2813176
    Janves
    Member

    That is definitely correct. What I am interested is basically the answer to the question What is more important, how often you beat BSP or by how much you beat it.
    So far, I reckon the 2nd is true. Guess I will keep collecting my bets and when on some solid number, I can make a conclusion.

    in reply to: Five to Follow in 2020 #2813172
    Janves
    Member

    Yeah, I got on. The race was ideal as only 8 ran so that was easy EW bet

    Well done Matt!!!

    in reply to: wednesday 1st july #2813160
    Janves
    Member

    That would be awesome, I have 356 bets with average win odds 12.50 which is not really enough to prove anything. I am not particularly interested in beating BSP on it’s own. I am interested in how much does beating BSP influence the profit/loss.
    My numbers so far showing where I beat the BSP, my profit is larger then expected and even bets where I don’t, I am still making profit (could be only because of the limited number of bets), but if I compare the two, much better profits are achieved, where the BSP was beaten.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 145 total)