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Yesterday was a bust with 2 from 6 winning, but overall it’s a good way to spot the false favourites. In some races the stats for the first 3 favs are awful so its probably best to avoid, or better still look at the bigger priced runners. There is also the reverse of this, which of course is positive reinforcement of the favourites. There was a race last Saturday in Lingfield where the trainer Scott sent 5 runners in handicaps on the turf there, with 3 different winners. His horse duly obliged @4/1 making it 4/6. Even yesterday A’obrien sent out the fav in the first in galway where he is very strong in non handicaps and won in a canter@2/1.
I don’t have much time these days to post, but definitely filter the full form on the favourites
The main filters I focus on are trainers and sires. I reference and cross reference most of the other filters til I see a pattern. Some stats just completely stand out, especially when the ground/distance/class are added
Here is a classic example
17.10 Beverley CORKED Trainer has 150 runners over the last 2 years in the class with only 2 winner and both of those were on AW. He had 86 runners in Class 6 races with 0 winners and only 14 places and yet the horse is tissue 7/2 and currently 5 to lay on betfair. The sire for the same horse is 1/23 for distance/age. Of course it could be a stat buster, but there is no way that I would back him. Is he a lay possibility yes, but unfortunately the stats on the others aren’t great either, to be truly confident.
Anyways best of luck
14.10 BLAUSEE Trainer 0/21 age/handicap 1/23 going/handicaps Sire 1/17 class/age/ handicaps (1/29 overall) 0/14 distance/class/age (1/31 overall)
14.40 BUHTURI trainer 0/6course/age 0/8 course/class Jockey 1/13 course/age Sire 0/17 going/age
14.00 RIVER CAM Sire 0/22 going/age 1/22 distance Trainer 0/7 course nhcap, 1/8 class/age/ nhcap
15.00 ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 0/11 course &run under 10 days Sire 1/28 class&going 1/28 distance
16.30 CALL ME GINGER Trainer 0/56 flat&aw +60 days Sire 0/20 +60 days 0/39 nhcap
3/13 today. The combined BFSP on the losses was -10.64, so the overall today was +2.3.
18.00 in Kempton was a bust with the 2 lays the first 2 home. They might be worth following as they went against the grain on the stats. Same could be said for MOTAGALLY. He did his job well to give the trainer his first winner at the course for 2 years. Silver linings eh
MOTAGALLY @3.25so far is the only one who beat the stats with 1 more to run.
Looking at the even meetings now
16.55 CASTEL ANGELO Trainer 0/21 all weather 2yr old runners 0/7 for class at Kempton Jockey 1/13 class/ distance (2/30 over CD)
17.30 PROGRESSIVE RATING Trainer 0/8 course/ age (0/20 on all weather) 1/32 class/all weather Sire 1/10 course/age
18.00 INFLAMED Trainer 0/11 age CD, 1/23 age / distance/AW, Sire 1/7 CD/age 1/9 class/course
18.00 GLEN ESK Sire1/19 class/age/handicaps Trainer 0/29 age
13.50 BENI LIGHT Trainer 0/7 at the course 0/16 class in chase Sire 1/8 on ground (BENI LIGHT) 0/3 in class, all unplaced Jockey 1/16 in chase including hunter at the distance
14.20 SEVEN DE BAUNE Trainer 0/17 with 60+ break with chasers in class Sire 0/12 in chases
14.00 WOTS THE WIFI CODE Trainer 0/8 age/ class 0/7 CD Sire 0/ 9 CD 0/23 course
13.40 MOTAGALLY Trainer 0/13 at the course, 1/13 in distance/class on turf Sire 0/16 distance/class on turf (1/25 overall)
14.10 GREAT AIM Trainer 1/20 distance/age/ nhcap on turf (3/40 overall) Sire only 4 runs all unplaced Jockey 1/6 in nhcap at course
14.40 BARRSBROOK Trainer 1/17 in handicaps with horses racing under 10 days Sire 0/6 distance, nothing placed Jockey 1/10 total
15.10 IT’S HOW WE ROLL Trainer 1/16 going/class in handicaps 1/11 at the course Sire 0/17 going/class
15.40 TURNTABLE Trainer 0/6 course 0/6 in handicaps with 60+ days in class 1/11 in age/class/ distance Jockey 0/14 in age/class/distance handicaps Sire 1/11going/distance/age
16.40 BIG TIME MAYBE Trainer 1/60 class turf Sire 1/24 class/ general configuration
ORANGE SUIT defied the stats and won @ 2.86. MINA VAGANTE was a NR
That’s 2/19 so far
13.55 GODDESS Trainer&Jockey 1/9 over C/D with age in non handicaps Sire 1/15 with age class and going and 1/26 in age class and distance
15.00 ALBIGNA Trainer 0/16 age with 60+ days since last run. Sire 0/13 on turf for the age with 60+ days
14.15 NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND Trainer 0/20 in distance class handicaps Sire 0/11 in handicaps
15.20 ORANGE SUIT Trainer 1/11 in class under 10 days, also 1/11 with distance and age Sire 0/15 under 10 days in handicaps with courses with general configuration
14.35 HOT SUMMER Trainer 1/20 over course and class Sire 1/35 age and class on turf (1/40 overall) 1/9 under 10 days since last run
15.10 MIDNITEMUDCRABS Trainer 1/13 in distance class handicaps Jockey 0/24 with age/class/ general configuration Sire 0/6 class/age/handicaps (2/19 overall)
15.45 MADELEINE BOND Trainer 0/6 course 1/16 in class/distance Sire 0/7 age/going 1/12 class/going
16.20 MINA VAGANTE Trainer 1/13 in distance/class/ general configuration 1/9 in going/class Sire 1/17 going/age and 1/19 going class
Nearly a clean sweep, but alas Super FLORENCE did me in the end @4.33. If I recall correctly only 1 other runner finished in first 2.
Just a few more in today’s races
15.45 JUMIRA BRIDGE Trainer 1/16 with class/age/handicaps and 1/22 in age/distance/ handicaps Jockey 0/9 distance/ general configuration
16.20 STRICT TEMPO Trainer 1/14 in handicaps at bath Sire 1/44 flat handicaps and 1/14 distance
17.30 MORE THAN LIKELY Trainer 1/31 in age/class and 0/11 in age/course Sire 1/18 in class/age/general configuration Jockey 0/7 at course
16.05 QUEENOFTHECLYDE trainer 1/15 age/handicaps
17.15 MUHALLAB. Trainer MUHALLAB last win disguises trainers woeful record 1/15 in handicaps going right hand also his -10 days is 1/11 on turf due to the win
19.15 SUPER FLORENCE Trainer is 0/23 on horses run -10 days at the course Sire is 0/19 in the class handicaps under 10 days as well
Here are a few that the trainers have a good strike rate over today’s courses in either handicaps or non.
R Whitaker is 5/17 with horses that have ran within 60 days in handicaps at Pontefract in class 5 races. He runs ROUND THE ISLAND in the 20.05 and PENNY POT LANE in the 20.35
S Bin Suroor is 6/14 in Leicester nhcap and 4/7 in 3 yr old nhcap. He runs 2 in the 4.30, AL MUREIB and GHALY
M Johnson is 8/31 at Windsor with horses that have no equipment and 5/10 in nhcap. He has ETON COLLEGE in the 18.15
W Stone is 6/22 over the last 2 years in Brighton handicaps (4/17) in last year. He runs both DIAMOND LADY 3.05 and TIGERFISH 3.35
The Brighton 2.00 should be easy peasy, as my QT shows up lays for 2 horses and a positive for the other one.
IVOR is a Cjt for R Hannon, whilst TAXIWALA is a lay 2 yr old sire ( going 0/34) and INYAMAZANE trainer, is 0/10 on course and class
Interestingly Hannon is 7/ 24 for age , class and course over the last 2 years.
O greenall has had 9/26 winners in class 4 hurdles races, that have run within 60 days of last race, over the last 3 months. He runs BOSSINEY BAY in the 19.40 in Warwick today.
I also have positive trends for PASSING DREAM and SO LONELY and feel that they are combination forecast (6 bets)and tricast (6 bets) material
- This reply was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by Steve Packer.