Another short Friday post, dear reader, to bring you the latest installment in young Ross Birkett's guest writing slot; plus I've got the cumulative results to date of the controversial Betfair Conspiracy system; and a couple of horses I'm looking forward to this weekend...
First up, let's get back to the Betfair Conspiracy system. Never in my three years blogging on systems have I encountered such a divisive mailbag on a subject, and - to be frank - I was a little surprised. Readers who have been bouncing their pupils from left to right and back again across Geegeez pages since its outset, wrote to me expressing dismay that I would favourably comment on what must be a scam system.
What I always try to do is see past the preposterous marketing, and take a view on a system itself. Note the word 'view', which means it's my opinion. Now I've been looking at systems critically for ten years, and as a paid affiliate for three, and I've seen literally well over a hundred. As such, I consider myself reasonably qualified to comment on the subject.
Again, that last statement doesn't make me infallible. Far from it. But I hope that it gives me some latitude to make what might appear to be the occasional controversial observation, especially when it is subsequently substantiated with data. Anyway, I'm wearing my soapbox out this week, so I'll retire it, at least until after the weekend, and get on with the show!
Yesterday's results are included in the below breakdown, which comes in two parts. As I mentioned in previous posts, I wouldn't be playing the very short priced selections, and I've made my cut-off point at 1.25. However, this is not a system rule, so I've included two sets of results: one with all selections; and one with just the horses at 1.25 or more. (5% commission has been deducted on all winning bets.)
1.25 or More:
|Av win SP||0.605|
|23-Feb||15:30||Sou||Banjaxed Girl||â‚¬ 50.00||P||0.43||â‚¬20.43||â‚¬1,020.43|
|24-Feb||13:50||Lud||Great Reason||â‚¬ 53.30||P||0.12||â‚¬6.08||â‚¬1,072.06|
|24-Feb||14:45||Lin||Fong's Alibi||â‚¬ 53.60||P||0.41||â‚¬20.88||â‚¬1,092.94|
|24-Feb||15:55||Lin||Handsome Cross||â‚¬ 54.65||P||0.1||â‚¬5.19||â‚¬1,098.13|
|24-Feb||18:00||Kem||Brave Talk||â‚¬ 54.91||U||0.28||-â‚¬54.91||â‚¬1,043.23|
|25-Feb||14:00||Hun||Chilli Rose||â‚¬ 52.16||U||0.24||-â‚¬52.16||â‚¬991.07|
|25-Feb||19:40||Kem||Little Pete||â‚¬ 49.55||P||0.64||â‚¬30.13||â‚¬1,021.19|
|Av win SP||0.44|
Obviously, it's still early days yet, and today I'm looking at the following races:
Warwick 2.40, 3.15, 5.25. A couple of these might end up being too short to play - according to my rule above - but we'll see on that. They will all be reported on the 'all in' sheet.
For those who have the system, I omitted the following for these reasons:
3.05 SOu Jockey
4.15 Sou Trip
2.10 War Jockey / Trainer
3.15 War YES
3.50 War No form
6.40 Wol NR
8.40 Wol Form
You can still get Betfair Conspiracy here.
Now it's Ross' turn to scribble, and as the hullabaloo dies down, before inevitably rising again, around AP McCoy's Denman tumble, our man has a somewhat controversial spin on things. (What?! More controversy? This site will be X-rated soon!)
Eyes down, look in, for another Birkett full house:
The saying goes that horseracing is 95% about the horse and 5% the jockey. This maybe true about your average one mile handicap stakes at Folkestone - all the little man on top has got to do is point his mount towards the winning post, whether the beast wants to be the first to get there is entirely up to them.
But what about over the sticks? Thereâ€™s so much more to riding under National Hunt rules than on the flat - pace, jumping and reserving stamina to name just a few of the dilemmas that spin in a jump jockeyâ€™s mind during a race.
We all have our views on who is the best jockey around, Tony McCoy and Ruby Walsh would feature in quite a few of your lists, but do they contribute the same 5% as, say, a 7lb claimer having their first ride?
Indeed, the way Walsh gets some of his mounts to creep through races, stalking the pace and then pouncing at the death can get even the most shy racegoer singing â€˜Ruby, Ruby, Ruby!â€™ from the stands.
Or is their contribution at times less than 5%? Do some jockeys just not suit some horses? Jamie Spencer on a front-runner springs to mind. What Iâ€™m getting at here is: is McCoy the man for Denman in the Gold Cup?
Anyone who saw the Irishmanâ€™s relentless, never-say-die performance on Wichita Lineman at last yearâ€™s festival will be in no doubt that he can give a horse a ride but not every animal needs the ears scrubbing off it for a circuit.
Lazy he may be but Harry Findlayâ€™s gelding is a gentle giant - crack the whip and youâ€™ll break his heart. Whether the stick is the best way to encourage him is debateable, the carrot may be a wiser incentive.
As we saw, the relationship didnâ€™t get off to the best start in the Aon Chase at Newbury earlier in the month - after some atrocious mistakes the partnership was disjoined when Denman fell two out. To my eye, he was beaten already though.
I donâ€™t think itâ€™s a case of â€˜The Tankâ€™ not being the force of old - his Hennessy win this season was probably the finest our generation has ever seen in a handicap.
Why connections ever thought of taking Sam Thomas off the 2008 Gold Cup winner beats me. Was it spite? Just because Thomas left Paul Nichollsâ€™ yard to work for Tom George, did they feel betrayed and got their own back by taking his best ride away from him?
Whatever the reason, it has cost them - Denman goes into the worldâ€™s toughest steeplechase with a question mark hanging over him. There will be no prisoners come Gold Cup day.
â€˜Can he beat Kauto Star?â€™ is what the Racing Post keep asking us.
On recent evidence, we need an answer to the more pointed question, â€˜Can Denman even get round?â€™
Yikes! Contentious stuff indeed!
Lastly today, there's a couple of horses I'm looking forward to watching especially this weekend.
Firstly, in the Racing Post Chase, I'll be backing Nacarat to double up his victory last year by again seeing off his oppo. He's got 11-08 in a race that has favoured heavyweights in recent seasons, loves the track, and will love the ground. Not the biggest price, but he'll give us a run for the Saturday fish money.
And secondly, I'm taking a fancy to Ballyfoy at Newcastle in the Eider. He's a nine year old, on a hat-trick, loves soggy turf, stays all day, and has eleven stone.
Given that the last seven winners were eight to ten years old, carried eleven stone or more, and had winning form over three miles plus, he should run very well.
Good luck with your weekend wagers!