AINTREE – Day One Trends….

Can Big Buck's Land A 4th Liverpool Hurdle?

Andy Newton is on hand with all the trends and stats for the opening day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting.

 

 

2.00 - BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) BBC2 Good To Soft 3m110y

BIG BUCK’S has won the last three runnings
The last 8 winners were aged 6 or OLDER
4 of the last 8 runnings went to the favourite
All 8 recent winners returned 11/2 or SHORTER in the betting
Ruby Walsh has ridden the last three winners
All 8 winners have won or come second at the meeting before
7 of the last 8 finished in the top 4 of the World Hurdle
The Irish are yet to win the race
Paul Nicholls is 10 from 56 (18%) with his hurdlers at the track – BIG BUCK’S
Robin Dickin is 3 from 6 (50%, +£45) with his hurdlers at Aintree – RESTLESS HARRY
Ruby Walsh is 12 from 42 (29%) when riding hurdlers at the track – BIG BUCK’S

2.30 - Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) BBC2 Good To Soft 2m110y

6 of the last 7 runnings went to the favourite
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1
Alan King and Robert Thornton combined to win the race in 2007 & 2009 – GRUMETI
9 of the last 12 winners ran in the Triumph Hurdle
18 of the last 22 winners had won at least twice over hurdles previously
French breds have been successful in 6 of the last 13 runnings
Paul Nicholls trained the winner in 2003 & 2011 – PEARL SWAN, HINTERLAND & DODGING BULLETS
Paul Nicholls is 10 from 56 (18%) with his hurdlers at the track – PEARL SWAN, HINTERLAND & DODGING BULLETS
James Bethell is 2 from 3 (67%) with his hurdlers here - BRADBURY
Venetia Williams is just 1 from 41 (2%) with her hurdles at the track – KAPGA DE CERISY
Aidan Coleman is just 1 from 35 when riding hurdlers at Aintree – KAPGA DE CERISY
Richard Johnson has a +£38 level stakes profit when riding over hurdles here – SADLER’S RISK

3.05 - Betfred Bowl Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) BBC2 Good To Soft 3m1f

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years
6 of the last 10 winners were aged 10 or OLDER
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
NACARAT won the race 12 months ago
AP McCoy rode the winner in 2004 & 2007 – BURTON PORT
19 of the last 28 winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
8 of the last 15 finished in the top 4 of that season’s King George VI Chase
The Irish have only saddled 3 winners in the last 28 years
11 of the last 19 winners were either second or third favourites in the betting
Alan King is 6 from 23 (26%) with his chasers at the track - MEDERMIT
Barry Geraghty is 5 from 26 (19%) when riding over fences here – RIVERSIDE THEATRE
Denis O’Regan is 7 from 37 (19%) when riding over fences here – TIME FOR RUPERT
AP McCoy is just 4 from 49 (8%) over fences at Aintree – BURTON PORT

3.40 - John Smith´s Fox Hunters´ Chase (CLASS 2) (6yo+) BBC2 Soft 2m5f110y

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2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
8 of the last 10 were aged 10 or OLDER
Robert and Sam Waley-Cohen teamed up with success in 2005 & 2006 – ROULEZ COOL
SILVER ADONIS won the race in 2010
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/1
16 of the last 19 were placed at least last time out
17 of the last 19 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Only one Irish-trained winner since 1983

4.15 - matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) BBC2 Good To Soft 2m

4 of the last 10 went to the favourite (1 co-fav)
All 10 were aged between 6 and 9 years-old
9 of the last 10 carried 11-1 or LESS
6 of the last 10 carried 10-8 or LESS
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
AP McCoy rode the winner in 2003 & 2005 – KID CASSIDY
A novice has taken 6 of the last 10 runnings
6 of the last 13 winners ran in that season’s Grand Annual Chase
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0-20 in the last 14 years - TAKEROC
10 of the last 14 winners came from the first five in the betting
Alan King is 6 from 23 (26%) with his chasers at the track – KUMBESHWAR

4.50 - Betfred Manifesto Novices´ Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £42,713 RUK Good To Soft 2m4f

Only 3 previous runnings
No winning favourite as yet
2 of the last 3 winners were 8 year-olds
The average winning SP is 4/1
All 3 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that same season
All 3 winners were second or third favourites in the betting
The last 2 winners were rated 150+
Venetia Williams is only 3 from 32 with her chasers here – PEPITE ROSE

 

5.25 - Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £25,628 RUK Good To Soft 3m110y

Only one winning favourite in the last 10 runnings
8 of the last 10 were aged 7 or YOUNGER
ALL 10 carried 11-1 or LESS
6 of the last 10 carried 10-7 or LESS
Jonjo O’Neill trained the winner in 2007 & 2009
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 16/1
AP McCoy rode the winner in 2005 & 2009
19 of the last 23 winners had won earlier that same season
A novice has won 6 of the last 10 renewals
Leading owner JP McManus has won 5 of the last 14 runnings
11 of the last 23 ran at the Cheltenham Festival that same season
The Irish have won 5 of the last 14 runnings Venetia Williams is just 1 from 41 (2%) with her hurdlers at the track – HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, TENOR NIVERNAIS
David Pipe is just 2 from 36 (6%) with his hurdlers here – OUR FATHER, BUENA VISTA, STAR OF ANGELS,, SHOEGAZER
Denis O’Regan is just 1 from 52 (2%) when riding over hurdles here – CAPE TRIBULATION

 

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2 replies
    • Matt Bisogno says:

      One French bred winner in a particularly slow run renewal, who already had Class 1 3m+ form, in a hundred years, means I’m happy with my caveated exclusion of most Frenchies..!

      Best,
      Matt

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