AINTREE – Day Three Trends….

 

Andy Newton is on hand with all the trends that matter for all 7 Aintree races on Grand National Day....................

 

AINTREE (BBC/RUK)

1.45 – John Smith´s Mersey Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) BBC1 Good To Soft 2m4f

2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (1 joint)
8 of the last 10 winners were either 5 or 6 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
10 of the last 15 race sixth or better at the Cheltenham Festival
All 10 finished 6th or better last time out
6 of the last 10 finished in the top 3 last time out
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2004, 2006 & 2008 – MOLOTOF
Tim Vaughan has a 22% record with his hurdlers here – ALAND ISLANDS
Ruby Walsh has a 30% record when riding over hurdles at the track - MOLOTOF
Richard Johnson is +£36 when riding over hurdles here – COLOUR SQUADRON

 

2.15 – John Smith´s Maghull Novices´ Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) BBC1 Good To Soft 2m

4 winning favourites in the last 10 years
All 10 recent winners were aged 8 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/2
The last 10 winners all returned 4/1 or SHORTER in the betting
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2002, 2003, 2007 & 2010 – TOUBAB
AP McCoy rode the winner in 2004 & 2006
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2003, 2007 & 2010 – TOUBAB
16 of the last 17 winners ran in that seasons Arkle Chase
No Irish-trained winner for 23 years
Ruby Walsh has a 20% record when riding over fences here – TOUBAB
James Reveley has a £22 record when riding over fences at the track – KUDU COUNTRY

2.50 –John Smith´s Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £90,032 BBC1 Good To Soft 2m4f

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2 winning favourites in the last 10 years (2 joint)
No outright winning favourite since the 1999 running
8 of the last 8 winners were aged 6 or older
9 of the last 10 winners returned 9/1 or SHORTER in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
6 of the last 10 winners have been Irish-trained
Only 1 of the last 8 winners won their previous race
4 of the last 7 ran in that seasons Champion Hurdle in their previous race
6 of the last 10 ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
Ruby Walsh has a 30% record when riding over hurdles here - ZARKANDAR

 

3.25 –John Smith´s Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) BBC1 Good To Soft 3m1f

2 winning favourites in the last 10 years
8 of the last 10 were aged 8 or OLDER
9 of the last 10 carried 11-2 or LESS
None of the last 10 winners had won at Aintree before
6 of the last 10 ran at Cheltenham last time out
The last 5 winners had not previously won over this trip
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
8 of the last 15 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Only 2 winners aged in double figures in the last 15 runnings
No Irish winner in the history of the race
David Pipe is only 3 from 38 with his runners over fences here – BATTLE GROUP
Ferdy Murphy is just 2 from 36 with his runners over fences at the track – THE HOLLINWELL
Ruby Walsh has a 20% record when riding over fences here - CHAPOTURGEON
Richard Johnson is only 3 from 32 when riding over fences here - MARUFO
Dougie Costello has a 24% record when riding over fences at the track – SAINT ARE
Daryl Jacob is 0 from 20 over fences at Aintree - NOLAND

 

4.15 – John Smith´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (7yo+) Winner £547,268 BBC1 Good To Soft 4m4f

No winner has carried more than 11-5 since Red Rum in 1977
98 horses since 1977 have tried to win with 11-5 – they’ve all failed
The last 7 year-old to win was in 1940
The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974
Only 1 Cheltenham Festival winner from that season has won the race since 1961
The last horse to do the Gold Cup/National double in the same season was Golden Miller in 1934
All of the last 21 winners ran no more than 48 days ago
17 of the last 21 carried 10-12 or LESS
17 of the last 21 ran no more than 34 days ago
16 of the last 21 returned a double-figure price
15 of the last 21 were aged 10 or younger
12 of the last 21 came 4 or better last time out
6 of the last 21 were Irish-trained winners
5 of the last 21 went to the favourite
7 of the last 11 had run previously over the National-style fences
Only 1 French-bred winner in the last 103 years
9 of the last 11 winners were bred in Ireland

5.05 - John Smith´s Handicap Hurdle (For Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) RUK Good To Soft 2m110y

Only 3 previous runnings
All three returned a double-figure price
All three were aged 6 or older
All 3 recent winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
2 of the last 3 winners ran in the County Hurdle last time out
All 3 were unplaced in their last race
2 of the 3 winners carried 11-0 or more
DEE EE WILLIAMS won the race in 2010
David Pipe is only 2 from 40 with his hurdles at the track – KAZLIAN, DREAM ESTEEM
Venetia Williams is just 1 from 43 with her hurdles at the course - CICERON

5.35 - John Smith´s Champion Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4-6yo) RUK Good To Soft 2m1f

2 winning favourites in the last 10 years
7 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 24/1
8 of the last 10 were aged 5 or OLDER
8 of the last 10 had previously won a NH Flat race
3 of the last 10 ran in the Cheltenham Festival bumper last time out
Only 3 of the last 10 won last time out
Peter Bowen has a 25% (+£30) record in NH Flat races at the track – SIR JOHNSON
Donald McCain is only 1 from 20 with his NH Flat runners here - IFYOUSAYSO
Jamie Moore has a 50% record when riding in NH Flat races here – SIR JOHNSON

All trainer and jockey stats correct as of before racing on 13th April..........

 

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