In this article I am going to do a deep dive into last time out winners, writes Dave Renham. The focus will be on National Hunt racing in the UK with data taken from 2016 to 2023, and I am going to concentrate on horses that have already had at least three career runs.
There are two reasons for this: firstly, these animals have at least some form in the book; and secondly, later in the piece, I will be looking at some data which is concerned with two and three runs ago. All profits / losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price less 5% commission.
NH Last Time Out winners overall
When most of us look at horse form, our eyes are initially drawn to where a horse finished last time out. It is the most relevant performance being the most recent. We perceive that the most recent form is the most important and this is true, especially when considering the percentage chance a horse has of winning. The following graph shows strike rates for different last time out (LTO) positions:
As can be seen, horses that won LTO have managed to repeat that success more than 21% of the time. Also, as we move down the finishing positions (2nd through to 7th or worse) the percentages decline. It is worth noting that horses which fell or unseated LTO score more often than horses that finished 5th or worse. Horses that were pulled up LTO have the lowest win percentage next time out.
Sticking with LTO winners, despite their good strike rate this group would have lost around 5p in the £ betting all of them blind. In other words, for every £100 staked you would have £95 returned, losing £5. I have mentioned many times before that strike rates are just one part of the story, and not the most important; a high strike rate does not guarantee profitability.
One indicator of ‘value’ is an A/E index so let's compare those in terms of position LTO:
LTO winners have a reasonable A/E index of 0.91 – the second highest of all the finishing positions shown. To offer some context, the average A/E index for all runners is 0.87. Before moving on, it is worth noting that horses that unseated LTO perform much better in their next race than I suspect most people would have thought.
So, can we improve upon these LTO winners by looking at some different subsets? Very probably. Let's see...
NH Last Time Out winners by age
Below is a breakdown of NH LTO winners by age:
Once we get to horses aged eight or older, we see the strike rate dropping. However, despite this it is the LTO winners aged nine and ten that sneak into profit. Once we hit the veterans - 11+ - such LTO winners look best avoiding, with a low strike rate (in comparison to the other ages) of 13.6%, a poor A/E index of 0.83, and losses of over 12p in the £.
NH Last Time Out winners by Gender
A look at the sex of the horse next. As we know male horses win slightly more often than female horses but when it comes to last time out winners, we see that females have just edged it as the table shows:
We can see that female last time winners have been much the better value, with a higher A/E index and a near break-even scenario compared to losses of 5.86% for their male counterparts.
NH Last Time Out winners by Starting Price
It is time to split the LTO winner results up by price. I have used Industry SP for this comparison:
If we look at the A/E indices, it seems the better value lies with the shorter priced runners, especially those 6/4 or shorter. The 16/1 to 25/1 group has made to profit to BSP, but the figures are skewed somewhat as eight of these winners started between 40.0 and 63.37 on Betfair. What did surprise me slightly was the number of last time out winners that started at a big price on their next run – nearly 4400 LTO winners started 11/1 or bigger.
NH Last Time Out winners by Last Race Odds
I thought I would look at the odds horses were sent off when they won LTO: my thinking was that bigger priced winners would have been a surprise and hence more likely not the type of runner to follow up next time. Well, that was my theory! Here is the breakdown – I have used slightly different price groupings to those above to illustrate some patterns:
If we look at the numbers, the strike rates go down as the LTO price increases, which shows that the LTO price is extremely relevant in terms of win percentage chance next time. As a rule, the returns get worse as the LTO prices increases; likewise, the A/E indices trend downward also. Hence, when taking the LTO price data as a whole, it suggests that the shorter the LTO price the better, even if profits are not directly forthcoming.
NH Last Time Out winners by Trainer
One area I always try to look at, assuming it is relevant, is trainer data. Are any trainers particularly successful in terms of backing up a last time out win? Let us first look at the trainers that have the highest A/E indices with LTO winners. To qualify they must have had at least 100 qualifiers during the period of study. Here are the 15 trainers that have the highest figures:
The A/E indices range from 1.05 to 1.26. Generally anything above 1.00 is considered ‘value’ and, to provide a benchmark, the overall A/E index for LTO winners is 0.91. Hence all these trainers are well above that mark. Most of the trainers would not be considered the absolute top tier in terms of their peer group, but this cohort does I believe warrant close scrutiny when sending out a LTO winner. Indeed, all 15 have produced blind profits to BSP as the table below shows (trainers ordered by strike rate):
These are excellent figures correlating well with their A/E indices. Digging down into a few of these trainers, there are some interesting additional stats to share:
- Kim Bailey has fared especially well with LTO winners who are coming back from a break. Horses from his stable that have been off the track for 70 days or more after a LTO win have scored in 20 races from 59 starts (SR 33.9%) for a BSP profit of £17.82 (ROI +30.2%).
- Peter Bowen'a chasers that won LTO scored again 32% of the time returning a very impressive 86 pence in the £.
- Henry Daly has a good record in lower level races. In races classified Class 4 or lower (i.e. Class 4-6) his LTO winners have managed to record another win on their next run 27 times from 72 (SR 37.5%) for a BSP profit of £39.43 (ROI +54.8%).
- In my series on jockeys I highlighted that Charlotte Jones has a very good record riding for James Moffatt. This is certainly the case when Jones is riding a LTO winner from the Moffatt stable. They have combined to score 22 times from 61 (SR 36.1%) for a BSP profit of £52.74 (ROI +44.3%).
Now, if we have several trainers with good records with LTO winners, conversely, we are going to have trainers with poor records. Below are the trainers whose A/E index lies under 0.80 which is extremely low for this type of runner.
As can be seen, we have some low strike rates and very hefty losses to boot. The average win SR% for all trainers with LTO winners stands at 21.5%; this subset sees their SR% range from 18.7% down to 12.3%.
Some of the ‘bigger’ named trainers are yet to be accounted for so here is a selection of their figures for horses that won LTO (ordered by A/E index):
Most of these trainers have a higher-than-average win strike rate, which is to be expected, but as is shown, all bar Harry Fry have produced losses to BSP. Again, this is a good reminder that strike rate is far from the ‘be all and end all’. Generally, the market adjusts to the fact that these trainers are likely to win more often than the average trainer.
NH Last Time Out winners: Last Three Runs
My last port of call for LTO winners is to look at the previous two starts before the win. I want to compare LTO winners that finished in the first three on both of their previous two runs, with those that finished 4th or worse in both of their previous two runs. Here are the splits:
It seems that the ‘in form’ horses (those that finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in both of their two previous runs prior to their LTO win) are the ones to keep an eye out for. Losses are minimal (1p in the £) and one would hope that a further researched subset of these runners could prove to be profitable.
Indeed, one profitable subset of horses that finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in both of their two previous runs prior to their LTO win are those returning to the track within two weeks. Strike while the iron is hot and all that. The results are positive: 357 wins from 1067 runners (SR 33.5%) for a profit to BSP of £156.32 (ROI +14.7%). This group has been consistent with six of the eight study period years turning a profit and the two losing years seeing the very smallest of reverses.
*
It is not easy to profit from last time out winners, but certain trainers highlighted in this article have certainly managed it over recent seasons. Also, LTO winners that finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in both of their two previous runs prior to their LTO win, have been profitable when focusing on those that are returning to the track within two weeks of that LTO success.
I hope this article has given you a better insight into LTO winners and what to look for, and what not to look for. Until next time...
- DR
Hi Dave, have you any breakdown of Days Since Last Run for LTO Winners, say
7 days or less
8-14
etc
Thanks
Comments are closed.