And The Winner Is…

And the winner is...

And the winner is...

Last week, I invited geegeez readers to submit their angles for squeezing optimal value from Peter May's excellent speed ratings, which have recently been incorporated into the comprehensive Geegeez Gold stable of tools, tips and numbers.

Dr May has created a couple of tools to aid the process, and it seems as though many of you enjoyed delving into the data. There were over 70 entries, and judging them was a fun challenge, but one where Chris and I had to be quite clinical in the final reckoning.

With a first prize of a lifetime subscription to Gold, and a runner up prize of a year's subscription, it will have been well worth the time for a couple of clued up site visitors. But who?

Below, I've included not just the winner and runner up, but also some of the shortlisted angles as well. And I'd like to give special mention to Matteo who, although not winning, contributed significantly to the entries and must have burned up a fair amount of midnight oil in the process. Good work, Matteo!

So, to the short list. and each of these entries had a decent (three figure) number of qualifiers, meaning that they'd be a) more statistically significant and b) likely to throw up more qualifiers going forwards. Chris and I ran through all entries independently of each other, and the winner and runner up appeared on both of our lists.

Shortlisted

Paul Harrison's Under-Rated Non-Handicap Form

Race Age: All Age Races
Race Grade: All Handicap
Tracks: All Tracks
Going: All Weather
Race Distance: All Distances
Field Size 5 to 40 runners
Months: All Months
Race Class: All Classes
Years: 2009 to 2013
For horses aged 2yo to 6yo
For horses priced between 2.50/1 to 10.00/1
For horses off the track between 0 to 28 days
Pos LTO: Won Second Third
RaceGrade LTO: Claimer Maiden Seller
Using Exchange Prices

33 wins / 113 runs – 29% S/R
0.95 ROI

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maverick99's Long Distance Handicap Hurdle system

Race Grade: All Handicap Hdl
Tracks: All Tracks
Going: Good Good to soft Soft Heavy
Race Distance: 2m7f 3m 3m1f 3m2f 3m3f 3m4f 3m5f 3m6f
Field Size: 2 to 20 runners
Months: All Months
Race Class: All Classes
Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
All race age categories
For horses aged 6yo to 7yo
For horses rated 80 to 185
Using Exchange Prices

84/418 20% SR
Profit £0.66/£

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Runner up

Bing's Recent Form All Weather Warriors

Your first 30 days for just £1

Race Age: All Age Races
Race Grade: All Handicap
Tracks: All Tracks
Going: All Weather
Race Distance: 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f 1m6f 1m7f 2m 2m1f
Field Size: Any
Months: All Months
Race Class: All Classes
Years: 2009 to 2013
For horses aged 4yo to 6yo
Genders: geldings
For horses priced between 2.50/1 to 10.00/1
For horses off the track between 0 to 14 days
Pos LTO: Won Second Third
Using Exchange Prices

Wins 62/Runs 257
Profit £0.42/£1

Bing wrote:

I have long favoured backing geldings on the all weather, especially in longer races. I think strength is important in these races which is why I’ve gone for 4yo’s to 6yo’s (Some horses older than that win obviously but in general I’m not fond of backing horses much older than that on the flat).

I also think good recent form is a big factor on the AW hence the placing and number of days rule and I don’t think there’s much mileage in backing short prices so none of my systems would include runners below 5/2.

Bing wins a year's free subscription to Geegeez Gold, worth £197, which includes access to the Peter May speed ratings of course.

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Winner

Hud's 2yo All Weather Maidens

Race Age: 2-Y.O Races
Race Grade: Maiden Race
Tracks: All Tracks
Going: All Weather
Race Distance: All Distances
Field Size: Any
Months: All Months
Race Class: All Classes
Years: 2009 to 2013
For horses priced between 0.00/1 to 4.00/1
Using Exchange SP
167 wins from 398 runs 42%SR 0.11 Profit/£

Chris and I both loved the simple inclusive nature of this, allied to the big strike rate and the large number of qualifiers (roughly 80 a year). 11% ROI is better than good on such an approach, and the logic of backing fancied top rated runners on the all weather stacks up, as they're often racing against horses without AW form.

Those horses don't have a rating, as turf figures don't count, and the implication is that the market over-plays the importance of turf form in all weather maidens.

Hud wins a Lifetime Gold subscription (value priceless 😉 as it's not currently available) - well done sir.

**

I'm currently working on configuring a report to pull together various 'best of the ratings' angles and, where they lend themselves to systematic calculation, we'll include the above on the report.

I will need to discuss with my clever techie people, but my hope is that we can include all four of the above angles.

Very well done to the shortlisted entries and the winners, and huge thanks to all who took part. If you'd like to use the analysis tools (PC only), they can be downloaded from within this post.

Matt

Your first 30 days for just £1
12 replies
  1. lickybits says:

    like to say great systems and worthy winners…
    like to congratulate winners
    found it interesting 3/4 angles included all-weather going

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi lickybits

      They actually don’t include the going as such. That’s just the way the software outputs the rules for all-weather-based systems, which those three are.

      Thanks for taking time to congratulate the winners. 🙂

      Matt

  2. Mark says:

    Hi Matt, I’ve downloaded the analysis tools via that link but they don’t seem to be working. It won’t let me add parameters after running the initial analysis. I noticed on his website that the analysis tools are downloadable for a fee so wondered if they were only available to geegeez members for that short time that your competition was running??

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Mark

      I wonder if you’ve downloaded the right tools? The ones we used – Flat Ratings Analyzer and NH System Analyzer – are free on Peter’s site. He has other tools which are premium software (i.e you pay a small fee to use), that are not based around the top rated horses on his ratings.

      Hope that clarifies,
      Matt

  3. maverick99 says:

    Congratulations to both Bing & Hud for their winning entries – two great systems and hopefully being able to forecast the Exchange SPs before the event may not be too much of an inconvenience or problematic? It will be interesting to monitor and see if everyone actually obtains the same selections, as I’m mindful of any selection process that is price dependent when the final SP isn’t actually known until after the race has started.

  4. Matteo says:

    Hi Matt,
    thanks for the mention, I’ve really appreciated it and I hugely enjoyed this competition, thanks a lot for this opportunity.
    Congratulations to the winners also but I have to raise an issue:
    the winning system considers all the AW tracks (also Great Leighs but no selections fortunately), including Wolverhampton, which is like a new track due to the Tapeta refitting. Well, I don’t think considering Wolverhampton has much sense, we don’t have the same surface, the same times, ecc. ecc. and the point is that past results are totally irrelevant.
    The results without Wolverhampton are:
    2009 na 18 45 40% -0,03
    2010 na 21 50 42% 0,17
    2011 na 17 45 38% -0,14
    2012 na 23 53 43% 0,31
    2013 na 10 38 26% -0,22
    All Runners na 89 231 39% 0,04

    Considering SP we have a 0,01% ROI! Is it a joke?

    The runner-up system also considers Wolverhampton, if we eliminate it the strategy remains profitable but a little reduced.

    Saying this I don’t want to create controversy and absolutely I don’t say I had to be the winner, but I have some doubts about the potential of the winning system, allow me!

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Matteo

      Firstly, thanks for your time and thoughts.

      I have to take issue with you on a couple of points however. The first is that Wolverhampton form is now redundant. It’s true that some horses may not act on the new surface, but tapeta is widely considered to be the fairest artificial surface available and so I’m not expecting too many to fail on that score. More materially, the conformation of the course – its bends and the length of its straights – has not changed and it is often that, as much as and more than the surface, which horses perform against.

      Secondly, converting exchange prices to SP is a daft thing to do in my opinion. If you can get 6/1 why would you take 5/1? If you can buy a pint for £3, why would you pay £4? It doesn’t make any economic sense.

      Finally, the reason I liked this system the most was for its simplicity and the volume of bets. ROI of 11% on a bigger turnover of bets is worth more profit – in real terms, rather than percentage terms – than a higher ROI on a handful of bets. It also offers a higher confidence level that the feat may be replicated.

      Hope that all makes sense, and clarifies my position.

      Best,
      Matt

  5. Matteo says:

    Hi Matt, sorry for the delay, I have to say that I agree with you, my thoughts on Wolverhampton were too hasty. I’m scoring the new standard times and I’ve seen that they’re a little slower than the past and my judgment was affected by this, wrongly. What you say about the course and the bends is far more important, I’ve convinced myself watching 6/8 favs winning on Saturday and I think that there’s nothing more to say about.
    About SP and ROI I completely agree with you from the beginning and I don’t have to say nothing. Thanks for straighten me on the right track Matt!

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      No problem, Matteo. I should say that it is possible that the surface WILL make a difference, but existing knowledge of tapeta is that it’s a very fair surface, and ought not to be materially different to the previous poly. Time will tell.

      Thanks for coming back on this, and I hope your betting is going well.

      Matt

  6. Matteo says:

    My betting is not going bad thanks and I can say I’m satisfied but I take this opportunity to say that an huge problem is born yesterday and you, English people, can not even imagine.
    I’m Italian and many of you already know that something strange happens here sometimes: yesterday was launched Bet365.it and the problem is that every UK website that launch a .it version cut dramatically the palimpsest and the betting markets. For example, we can forget the Asian handicap, can you believe it? The tragedy is not football or sports markets, which I think are bigger in Congo, but that every Italian version of UK websites DON’T HAVE HORSE RACING. Yes, you’ve red well, I don’t know how to play and I’ve seen the death of Betfair (transformed in a sh***y minimal website) last year, Betdaq (completely removed from Italy, neither a sh***y .it) two years ago and now Bet365 (.it site was supposed to be launched last year, every gambler here have always hoped it would happen as late as possible), the best betting website of the world. Now we have Betfred and Betdaq cancelled and Italian versions of Ladbrokes, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair, Bet365, 888, Coral, Unibet, all WITHOUT a shade of horse racing. Many other UK websites like Skybet, Totebet, Betvictor, don’t accept Italian customers. I can only play on Racebets, a great German site but without the place market and BOG only on bigger events and on Marathonbet, a Russian (?) site with the place market but no BOG for every race and restricted stakes. Well, my betting strategy consists on place bets singles for the 70/80% of the time and before yesterday I was happy to take Bet365 tote SP on the place market, which is ridiculous in itself. I don’t want to bore anyone but I would have to write thousand words about our national bookies, the Italian gambling system, the laws, the politicians, ecc. ecc. and I don’t think you could be interested. The point is that we’re under a gambling dictatorship, I’m here if someone would know something. Sorry Matt for these confused words but I’m very angry and frustrated

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Try a virtual private server or proxy server, Matteo. That might get around the problem.

  7. Matteo says:

    Matt it’s not possible, technically it is but I could have problems with the withdrawals and being a non-resident I could see my account closed if I try to access. I think our government has studied this situation and they want we to play on their fu****g bookies that even price UK racings. They want to keep the gambling monopoly, the only solution is to content with little or relocate to England.
    What a sadness

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