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“Any fool can back 35% winners”

It CAN Be Done!

It CAN Be Done!

In November 2013, I wrote the post below. It remains as pertinent today as it was then. I have, however, updated some of the information - including my own betting profit and loss - to make it current. It's a really important piece, in my opinion, and I hope you get something from it.

**

I've been reading a book by a young Irish fellow called Kevin Blake. It's about betting on horses, and specifically it's about how he made over £40,000 from betting on horses this year on Irish flat racing.

The keys, you may not be surprised to learn, were discipline, selectivity, discipline, form study, discipline, specialization, and discipline.

The book, "It Can Be Done", is a good read and it's full of strong insights.

But it might be a bit lacking in fun.

Most pro backers are serious types who spend much of their time studying the form book and video replays to eke out their profit. In fairness to Kevin, he doesn't fit that archetype at all.

If that sounds a bit dull, then I have some good news. The book was a catalyst for me taking an early look at my own betting profit and loss for the year (I normally do this at calendar year end), and the results were as pleasant as I expected.

In a nutshell, I'm showing a profit of £6,186 [2013 figure] £4,574 from my betting so far this year, 2016, on a turnover of almost exactly £20,000 [2013 figure] £6,871 (which excludes most of a thousand still sitting in accounts). Please note three things:

1. The numbers are shared as context, not (obviously) to gloat (if indeed you might consider them 'gloatworthy')

2. I love a bet, and I have lots of action bets, and I have fun with my betting.

3. I do not bet massive amounts, in terms of stake size.

I want to remind readers of my unshakeable contention that betting for fun and profit is possible, and that these two are not mutually exclusive. And I'll share some of the keys to my philosophy, such as it, in this post.

Key Principle #1: Have fun!

Firstly, I do not set profit targets. My target is to have fun. I set enjoyment targets. That doesn't mean I don't want to win. Of course I do. But if winning is at the cost of entertainment, then I might as well get a job. (You know, a proper job, not goofing about on the internet scribbling a few paragraphs about whatever tickles my fancy).

No, it starts with fun. I'll bet almost every day. Some days, especially on Mondays when the racing is generally desperate, I might have one little bet in the afternoon, or do a placepot for a bit of interest while I'm doing whatever else I'm doing.

On Saturdays, I generally don't bet much because racing outside of the festival meetings is never more competitive than it is on a Saturday.

But on Sunday, and from Tuesday to Friday, I take a keener interest in what's happening.

Key Principle #2: Get V-A-L-U-E

If you still don't 'get' this, you're completely and utterly doomed. Betting 3/1 when you could have bet 4/1 is just plain unfettered idiocy. And, forgive me, if you're still doing this, you're either very rich and are keen to become less rich; or you're a plain unfettered idiot.

Look. You cannot can't CANNOT win if you habitually take under the odds about your fancies, no matter how smart you are. (And, in case you didn't get my, ahem, inference in the above, you're not very smart if you habitually take under the odds about your fancies).

geegeez trumpets the best bookmaker offers because the very best chance you have of winning is to avail of any concession you're still qualified so to do.

Let me put it another way, and this is becoming something of a catchphrase for me. "Any fool can bet 30% winners".

Just grab a betting slip, or pull up a bookmaker site, and etch onto it/tick the box which says 'Fav'. Simple. Dull. Uninspired. And a little bit sad.

It will also ultimately cause a financial death by a thousand cuts. Slow. Insipid. Inexorable.

Actually, in Britain since the start of 2015, that number is up to 35%. So, Any fool can bet 35% winners !

Now don't get me wrong. There are plenty of occasions when a market leader can be a value bet. But simply backing the 'fav' is a mug's game. It's the ultimate mug's game. And if you do it, you're a mug. Get over it, and try something different. You might surprise yourself.

So what is value? Well, you've heard the coin toss example probably a million times. The problem is not 'what is value?', but rather 'how do I identify value?'

And here's a thing: that's an open book of a question. There is no right answer.

Many people say to quantify value, you must create your own 'tissue', or forecast betting odds. That's all well and good, but on what do you base those odds?

I've done it a few times, and it's an interesting exercise for sure. Comparing your tissue with the actual starting prices will tell you what sort of a handle you have on the market.

But generally, I determine value by feel. If that sounds cheap - perhaps even a cop out - then so be it. The fact is, I don't have all the time in the world to review the racing. I run a business akin to a (very) small iceberg, the main visible element of which is this site.

It takes a lot of maintaining. There are a lot of people involved. I have a young son and a lovely partner with whom I want to spend time. And I like beer. Not as much as I used to, but I still like it.

Time is limited for me, as it is for most people. But that doesn't mean we can't bet profitably, and enjoy the process as well. Value is key.

A Shortcut to finding value

By far the biggest blind spot in the early markets is a recency bias. Specifically, a bad run last time out can double a horse's odds. Take Bobs Worth as an example. He was 5/2 for the Gold Cup before disappointing in his prep race. He drifted out to 5/1. Had his chance halved as a result of that seasonal setback?

[From the original article]: Well, time will tell of course, but to my eye he has so many more positive runs to that one negative effort.

And, here's where the concession thing comes in, if he runs poorly again he might not even go for the Gold Cup. So, backing him at top price with a bookmaker offering non-runner free bet, feels like a smart thing to do. My entire Cheltenham ante-post portfolio so far - which is only about six or seven bets - has been struck with BetVictor, with no bet bigger than the £50 limit on that free bet concession.

Why would I bet anywhere else if they're matching the top price? To do so shows at best a lack of value acumen, and at worst, plain unfettered idiocy. 😉

The point: look beyond a bad run, especially if there's a probable reason for the bad run. Ground, trip, fitness, pace setup, missing the break, whatever. If a horse failed to get his normal luck in running - or ideal race conditions - last time, there's a good chance the market has under-estimated that horse's chance today, assuming race conditions are more in its favour this time.

[Post script: Bobs Worth didn't win the Gold Cup, but he was sent off the 6/4 favourite. 5/1? About a 6/4 shot? Any and every day, please.]

Another shortcut to finding value

Check the bookmaker concessions. Check the best odds available. And be sure to bet at the best odds available, and the best concessions. For as long as you can before they close you down.

I've got a good few winning accounts, and a few losing accounts. For whatever reason, I've only got one restricted account. [Update: I've got several more restricted accounts now]

If you don't currently have an account with the firm offering the best price, open an account with them. Here are three reasons why:

1. You'll get the best odds on your fancy today

2. They'll almost certainly give you some free bet bait to sign up (always great when you were going to sign up anyway)

3. Next time they're top price, you won't have to faff about.

 

Key Principle #3: "Let The Bet Make You"

There's this American bloke called Michael Pizzola. He writes about racing, and he lives in Las Vegas, and he lounges in the racebooks (betting shops) there. He writes very, very articulate and compelling books, and some of his core ideas are generic. One I really like is his strap line, "Let The Bet Make You".

What he means is simply that if you don't fancy something in a race, don't have a bet. You don't have to bet. You won't stop breathing if you don't bet. Most days, you won't even have to wait more than ten minutes for another wagering opportunity.

If you really must have a bet when you don't have an opinion, make it a very small bet. When it wins, you can buy a cup of tea and a sticky bun. When it loses, you won't kick yourself too hard.

That's the thing about discipline: it doesn't need to be a straightjacket. It's your leisure pound, and you can spend it as freely as you choose. But once it's spent, it's spent. Unless you backed a winner. Bet more when you have more of a view. But never bet too much.

Key Principle #4: Contrast is Key

Have you seen the Instant Expert reports on this site? You know, the traffic light thingies, with loads of numbers on them. The idea is that they'll help you see, at a glance, horses in a race which are suited by today's going, class, course, distance and field size, and that may be handicapped to win.

The amber and red box outlines are deliberately similar colours, in order to accentuate the dark green boxes which symbolize a positive profile.

The ideal situation is a horse which has a line of dark green in a race where very little else can offer much, if any, of that verdant hue. Next best is one with green and amber where most are red or grey. Here's an example from later today, 10th May 2016:

Double Czech looks well suited to conditions, while plenty of others may not be...

Double Czech looks well suited to conditions, while plenty of others may not be...

 

With the ground having changed to good to soft, soft in places; and with more rain forecast, it could easily be soft by race time. Double Czech should relish that, and has great course form too. He also has the best speed rating in the field, though that's irrelevant for the purposes of this example. Let's just stick to the colours. DC is green and amber all the way. His rivals are almost all red with occasional blobs of amber (and Zaria's impressive 3 from 3 course record).

Your first 30 days for just £1

Double Czech is 7/2 as I write. He might not win, but that looks too big. I've had a cheeky £20 on him with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker. He might be favourite. I've backed the favourite. He looks a value bet, irrespective of the outcome.

 

Summary

The point of this piece was/is not to gloat about winning at betting. After all, the tools on this website make winning from betting a distinct possibility.

And anyway, let's face it, there are plenty of people out there with far more to gloat about than me (though most don't have nearly as much fun 😉 ).

Rather, what I've tried to outline is a vague blueprint for profitable and enjoyable betting.

Profitable and enjoyable betting.

Those are the cornerstones of what geegeez is about.

Finally, in case you're interested, here's the summary of my betting activities, based on a sanitized download of my bank statement (i.e. I removed the occasional non-betting bank transaction - you know, like the mortgage, and the electricity bill).

N.B. The first image is from the original post, the second from May 2016's updated variant.

Betting P&L 2013

Betting P&L 2013

 

A good year so far...

2016: a good year so far...

 

There may be some who don't believe these accounts to be true, and frankly I've long since grown tired of the trolls that hide behind their screens in cyberspace, so I won't be saying anything further than that I can assure you this is the full and complete record of my wagering deposits and withdrawals...

...except, as I mentioned above, that it doesn't include things like the £1,000-odd I have in various bookie accounts, or the £500 of unsettled football bets I have to come (placed last year, so 'kind of' irrelevant in this context anyway). 😉

I use Geegeez Gold. Obviously. I built it to suit my needs as a recreational punter who likes to win.

It seems to suit the needs of these guys, too...

 

160508_InstantExpert_FFFv2

 

160506_H2H_20to1

 

testimonial160412_14_1and11_2double

 

testimonial160412_yankeedandy2

 

testimonial160412_yankeedandy

 

testimonial160308_66_1winner

 

testimonial160221_GoldAptlyNamed

 

And these guys do as well...

 

testimonial151224_faultless

 

testimonial151231_bigpricedwinnersatisfying

 

testimonial150823_delighted

 

testimonial150812_confidenceandbelief

 

testimonial150805_helplesswithoutGold

 

I have over 100 such emails in a file, and probably twice as many again that I've not captured from email into images.

People like you are using Gold in lots of ways to have fun...

...and they're backing big-priced winners. And they're making their betting pay.

Good luck with your betting. First and foremost, enjoy it.

And if you've any tips for readers on how to improve their own bottom line or fun factor, leave a comment below, and share your investment advice!

Matt

p.s. Although I love the buzz of backing a good winner, especially one that most people could never find in a hundred years, I also enjoy converting profit into good times. That 2016 number above - £4,574 - had already booked a two week family holiday for my family to Lake Garda in the Summer (yes, I'll be trying to take a few days off!).

And last night, it booked my flights to California for the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita later in the year. It's not 'profit': it's hotels, flights, days out, calorific dinners, extravagant bottles of wine, and so on.

Again, indulge me for the point, please. The first thing is to enjoy betting on horses. The second thing is to stop losing so much, then to stop losing. After that, it's all gravy. Or jus if that's your thing.

p.p.s. Want to know more about what's inside Gold? Take a look at this page.

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If you've not yet sampled the amazing winner-getting tools and tips inside Geegeez Gold, you can take a 30 day £1 trial by clicking this link.

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13 replies
  1. John says:

    Hi,
    l regularly take 3/1 on a horse that is available at bigger odds elsewhere not because l am really stupid but because only one online Bookmaker will accept my bets and my use of oddschecker probably contributed to some accounts being closed along the way.
    However the good news is over the last 10 months after deducting costs of the services l use l am over £10000 in profit but with 8 good accounts it obviously it would be even better but what choice do l have?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Well done, John, excellent work. And, as I’ve said, if you can, you should. Obviously, if you can’t, then that’s another matter.

      Matt

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      I haven’t, Paul. Some are restricted, as I’ve said. I also bet a lot into tote pools, which are unrestricted for everyone. But I can still get a bet on with 365, Victor, Hills and Coral, usually for what I want (Coral is a losing account for me, to date). No magic to it, as far as I know.

      Matt

  2. buskin says:

    Thanks Matt,

    For once I don’t feel like a mug as I used the TJ combo report last night and got 5/1 about your example Double Czech!! Here’s hoping!

  3. LiamP47 says:

    Great read Matt,interesting stuff as always I am happy to say I am a winning punter for last few years and since joining Geegeez I definitely believe it has contributed to me becoming a better punter. I am not up fortunes but similar to you enough to go to Spain for a week in the summer with my family. I love the contrast theory and also going against the crowd pays off long term.

  4. david d says:

    great read i have been betting for 40 yrs and have not made a been at mo im trying laying on horses to make £25 a day i only lay at 9/4 or lower works for a bit get to £120 and then seems to go down hill any help out ther

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi David

      The same tools that have can be used for backing horses can also be used for laying horses!

      For instance, when you find a race which looks very competitive (lots of green and amber) but a fancied horse has a lot of red by its name, that can be a lay opportunity. Obviously, if the horse hasn’t had many runs, it can improve, and this is a very simplistic example. I’d look for a horse that might also be unfavoured by the pace, or for a trainer out of form, and so on.

      You can find most of this out from trawling various elements of free racecard sites, but all of this information is available in a couple of clicks for Gold subscribers.

      Best,
      Matt

    • hudmillen says:

      Hi David, Matt has gave you a good hint there if you use the Instant Expert and see red and amber with your selected lay and plenty or some green about other horses in the race. That would be a good sign you are selecting horses with question marks.

      I was wondering do you ever watch a price tumble overnight only to drift again in the morning or close to the off?? Doesnt take much to move prices overnight so if one fits your criteria you might have more qualifiers to lay that way?? Im not sure though, somebody might shed some light after reading your request for help.

      • Matt Bisogno says:

        Hi Gary

        I’ve noticed that often. But I wouldn’t know the science to it. Basically, it takes very little to move the market overnight, and there is a lot more liquidity on day of race, especially after 11am.

        Caution would be advised, but there might be a decent angle in there somewhere.

        Matt

  5. lickybits says:

    checked on your example (double check) was impressed that you got 7/2 on a horse that went of at 4/5 fav, ok it didn’t win this time (but wasn’t far behind winner with every chance), but even so if geegeez golds form tools can point you in the direction of horses that are over valued/priced in the morning, and you can get your bet on before the price starts to tumble, with a horse that has a good realistic chance of winning, that’s very impressive, if you can bet on say a horse with a 50/50 chance of winning at odds that are greater say 6/4 or more, your on a winner

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      It’s misleading, lickybits, as there were bundles of non-runners in the race. So 7/2 would have been hit for a hefty Rule 4.

      Still, as you say, if we can consistently beat the market, we’ll come out in front. The key to doing that is to have information earlier – and in a more digestible format – than others.

      Matt

  6. acranea says:

    Getting harder & harder to get anywhere these days.I was referred to a trader last night for a fiver each way punt on a 33/1 shot at York today.Let me on in the end but seriously WTF??
    It placed with a drift to 66/1 in the end so god knows what they’ll do next time!
    Major player too not some two bob internet outfit.I despair sometimes I really do.My theory is they’ll take away my BOG rights as a next resort.It’s not as if I’ve won a fortune with them either.Gangsters pure & simple & something seriously needs to be done to curb their massive greed.Still,since they’re milking it from the evil of FOBTs I can’t see anyone stopping them.If this carries on I might have to look for a new home within walking distance of 8 betting shops! Barracudas.

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