Entries by Dave Renham

A Comparison of Trifecta and Tricast Payouts in Horse Racing

In two back-to-back articles, I will examine the ‘battle’ between two exotic bets - the tricast and the trifecta, writes David Renham. These bets are incredibly difficult to win because you must correctly predict the first, second, and third horses home in a specific race. We all know that finding the winner can sometimes be […]

Horse Performance: Course, Distance, and C&D Winners Compared

I looked at course, distance, and course and distance National Hunt data a few months back, writes Dave Renham. I will revisit this area now but switch my attention to the flat. I will ignore all-weather racing to write about that in the future. Hence, these findings apply only to UK turf flat racing, and I […]

Switching from All Weather to the Turf

As we move out of April and into May, the number of turf flat race meetings is increasing while the volume of all-weather meetings is diminishing, writes Dave Renham. Therefore, this is the time of year where we see the highest proportion of runners switching from an artificial surface on their last run to the […]

Handicap Losers and Official Rating Change: A Study

In my previous piece, I wrote about last time out handicap winners and reviewed what differences changes in their rating made when they next run, writes Dave Renham. This time, I am going to look at other handicap finishing positions (e.g. 2nd or worse). Introduction / Overview As with the first article I will be […]

Handicap Winners and Official Rating Change: A Study

As the title suggests, in this article I examine last time out (LTO) handicap winners and look to see what impact, if any, different changes to their rating makes when they race again, writes Dave Renham. I will also be grouping together all LTO winners upped in the ratings to explore general trends and stats. […]

What Happens on Next Run After The Cheltenham Festival?

Despite the turf flat slowly beginning to click into gear, I am going to dip my toe back into the world of National Hunt racing for one final time this season, writes Dave Renham. With the Aintree and Punchestown festivals to come there is plenty of great jumps racing still to look forward to. In […]

Top Draw Biases for the 2024 Flat Season

Over the past week I have finished collating thousands of stats, and crunching most of them, in order to be primed and ready for the new turf flat season, writes Dave Renham. The first things I always update in the close season are draw statistics for each course and distance. If possible, I want to […]

Is Recent Trainer Form Important?

Spring is upon us, and the turf flat kicks off this weekend, writes Dave Renham. It is my favourite time of the year as all of my winter research can be unleashed in an attempt to hammer the bookies! Of course, despite all the hard work put in it, it does not guarantee profits for […]

How to Compose a ‘Horses to Follow’ List

I am guessing that around 70% of the people reading this bet on horses on a regular basis, writes Dave Renham. By ‘regular basis’, I mean either daily or weekly. Regardless of how many bets you may have in a day, week, month, year or lifetime, the aim for the majority is probably to be […]

Why Strike Rate is Not the Only Metric in Town

In the articles I write for geegeez.co.uk, I use various different means of evaluating performance, writes Dave Renham. One of them is win strike rate. This is the measure of how often, as a percentage, something wins, be it a horse, jockey, trainer etc. I also typically look at the combined win and placed strike […]

Analysing Last Time Out Winners

In this article I am going to do a deep dive into last time out winners, writes Dave Renham. The focus will be on National Hunt racing in the UK with data taken from 2016 to 2023, and I am going to concentrate on horses that have already had at least three career runs. There […]

How does exposure impact performance?

As I write this opening salvo, I have yet to undertake the number crunching for what will follow so I can be as candid as possible, writes Dave Renham. Have you ever wondered if there is an optimum or near optimum number of runs a horse should have in a year? I must admit I […]

Mythbusters (Revisited)

In November 2017 Matt published an article that looked at five well established horseracing adages, writes Dave Renham. He tested them by looking at data going back to 2011 and he split his findings into two comparing an earlier data set to a more recent one. You can find the link here. In this piece […]

The Importance of Course/Distance Form in NH Racing

As the title suggests, in this article I will look at horses that have previously won at the course, over the distance, and over course and distance. My findings apply to UK National Hunt racing only, and I have looked at the last eight full years, from 2016 to 2023. The perception of many punters […]

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