In previous articles we have covered the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Wisdom of the Crowd, and how these theories help us identify opportunities that have a positive Expected Value (EV+), writes Russell Clarke. Our task as punters is to try and limit our individual bets to those that have an EV+. We can do […]
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Entries by Russell Clarke
It is perhaps the greatest paradox in the investment world that many consistently profitable money managers have a large percentage of losing clients, writes Russell Clarke. I recently saw the records of a very successful US Hedge Fund, that showed over 40% of their lifetime client base had actually lost money while investing with the […]
In part 6 of his outstanding series, Russell Clarke looks at the bigger picture through the prism of short-term hiccups. Russell's previous articles can be found here. IT’S ALL ABOUT THE ODDS Value betting as an accepted modus operandi is a relatively recent concept in the mainstream betting world. The Pricewise column in the Racing […]
The fifth part of this series goes hand in glove with the preceding episode about bookmaker concessions. To review the other previous articles, go here. Last time we looked at a range of bookmaker concessions, and when they offered positive expected value, writes Russell Clarke. This week the focus is very much on each way […]
In this fourth article (previous instalments here), I am going to look at concessions that are offered from time to time by the "soft" bookmakers; and how we can assess if these concessions or offers are worthwhile, writes Russell Clarke. The definition of "worthwhile" is exactly equal to "profitable" and, whilst we cannot know if […]
Part 3 of this series looks at different types of bookmaker. Earlier episodes can be viewed here. The terms “Sharps” and “Softs” refer to bookmakers that operate very different business models, writes Russell Clarke. Sharp bookmakers operate a low margin/high turnover model and Soft bookmakers operate a high margin/low turnover model. Examples of Sharp bookmakers […]
Part 1 of this series can be found here. I have deliberately kept mathematical 'proof' and academic rigour of the theories of Wisdom Of Crowds and the related Efficient Market Hypothesis out of this article, writes Russell Clarke. Those who are interested can easily research further their efficacy online. For what it's worth, I believe both […]
Success in betting is typically approached with the primary, and sometimes exclusive, goal of selecting winners, writes Russell Clarke. Whilst undoubtedly important, such an approach rather puts the cart before the horse (pardon the pun). Understanding the betting marketplace, and some of the basic maths, is the cornerstone of any viable strategy. This can then […]