A bit later than planned - due to the abandonment of day one because of waterlogging - Ayr will try to host the remaining two days of its Western meeting fixture.
It's a high class meeting and, as you'd expect, is targeted by a number of the bigger Northern trainers. So much so, that I've been able to put together a mini-system of sorts for short-listing potential wagers.
I looked to see which trainers had the best record at the Ayr Western meeting with horses which were at least relatively fancied and in their prime racing years. Specifically, 20/1 or shorter and aged two to six. These parameters are somewhat arbitrary, but they work well enough for what is - in any case - an inexact science at best.
The quintet of trainers of whom to take heed are:
- Tim Easterby
- Richard Fahey
- David Nicholls
- Kevin Ryan
- Bryan Smart
This 'Famous Five' have collectively saddled 35 winners from 202 runners at the last three Western meetings. That was worth a profit of 113 points, and is not to be sniffed at. But...
...the sharpies amongst you will realise that this is a heck of a lot of bets - roughly 22 a day - and you'd be right.
So, how can we manage the number down? Well, when the ground is extreme - either heavy or firm - it often pays to demand form on such a surface from the runner in question. The going at Ayr, as and when they race, will be heavy.
Unfortunately, that eliminates ALL sixteen qualifiers!
Looking at those with placed form on heavy does little more to assist, as only the three-year-old, Trail Blaze, has such a notch.
A fat lot of use that was then!
For what they're worth, Friday's potential runners are below, with a few I think might go well emboldened:
Bahamamay 1.50 Ayr 11/4
Garswood 2.20 Ayr 13/2 - WON 7.13 Betfair SP (BSP)
Woodland Mill 2.50 Ayr 16/1
Majestic Moon 2.50 Ayr 9/4
Bachotheque 2.50 Ayr 7/1 - WON 5.85 BSP
Luck 2.50 Ayr 12/1
Take It To The Max 3.25 Ayr 9/2
Lord Aeryn 3.25 Ayr 5/1 - 3rd 5.98 BSP
Trail Blaze 3.25 Ayr 9/4
St Moritz 3.25 Ayr 7/1
Extraterrestrial 3.25 Ayr 9/1 - 2nd 14.0 BSP
Arctic Feeling 4.00 Ayr 12/1 - 2nd 9.52 BSP
Above The Stars 4.00 Ayr 12/1
Waking Warrior 4.00 Ayr 12/1
Come On Dave 4.00 Ayr 8/1 - 3rd 9.04 BSP
Holy Roman Warrior 5.10 Ayr 12/1
Kathleensluckylad 5.10 Ayr 8/1
Best of luck - we're a million to one ON to have a winners with that list above, but whether there are enough profit points to put us/keep us in the black is another question entirely.