Back In Albion (Monday Mish Mash)

I'm back home again after my sojourn in France, and it feels a little strange to be honest. Hackney is a strongly contrasting environment from the small village in which I was residing and, whilst it's lovely to be back in Geegeez Towers, I miss the braying donkey, and the stroppy madame in the cafe...

In any case, my return was greeted by a 'close but no cigar' call in the Cesarewitch and, in today's Monday Mish Mash, I've got a run down on the Newmarket racing from Saturday, and a look at what's set to be a running debate: the introduction today of the new whip rules.

It's all about the jocks today, so chocks away!

Firstly, let's look back  at the weekend's racing from Newmarket, with a view to next year's Classics, but before that, a quick review of the Ces.

I'd made a pretty robust case for a horse called Ermyn Lodge in my Cesarewitch Preview piece at the end of last week. Those who followed me in were rewarded on the place part of the bet, as Ermyn Lodge battled bravely to beat 31 of his 32 rivals and finish second.

But the plaudits go to Frankie Dettori, a man I've lambasted a fair bit on here over the years, largely because he doesn't always give a horse the benefit of all of his considerable talent. Saturday was one of those career defining victories, and bookended the week when he was lucky to win his 500th Group race, with a victory here that he had no right whatsoever to claim.

His mount, Never Can Tell, was drawn in the car park's car park in 36 (which was actually the 33rd stall from the shortest course, due to non-runners, and the widest of all). If you think that makes no difference over two and a quarter miles, the stats disagree. And so does this image.

Frankie wins the Cesarewitch from an impossible position

Frankie wins the Cesarewitch from an impossible position

It took Dettori two and a half furlongs to tack across to the far rail which was favoured and, using bad maths, and even worse Pythagorian theory, I estimate that to be the equivalent of 45 metres extra distance. Or, in horse lengths, about 22 lengths.

What's more remarkable was that, once the field entered the interminable Newmarket home straight, Frankie was alone in deciding to race down the centre of the track.

We (I!) often criticise jockeys for a lack of bravery, especially in terms of choosing a furrow where they perceive the best ground to be, and this was brave bordering on foolhardy in such a big race, and as the only one of 34 riders so to do.

But he's not the best for nothing and, on his day, Dettori is simply unplayable, to use parlance from other sports. This was a master class ride in every sense, and if we who had backed Ermyn Lodge were to be beaten, then we have to concede defeat in the most sporting of contexts. For me, this was probably the ride of the season.

It was simply brilliant. And Frankie knew it. You don't see him do this when he wins Group 1's, so to see him do it in a handicap (albeit a pretty good handicap) told you a lot about how chuffed the micro-Italian was with his efforts and those of his gallant Montjeu filly, Never Can Tell. Have you ever seen Frankie do this before:

A delighted Frankie Dettori punches the air after a truly brilliant ride on Never Can Tell wins the Cesarewitch

A delighted Frankie Dettori punches the air after a truly brilliant ride on Never Can Tell wins the Cesarewitch

Formidable ride, Frankie. Well done mate.

And there was more credit to be distributed in the finishing positions of the Cesarewitch as, aside from our brave Ermyn Lodge, a three year old - Colour Vision - was just outbattled in the closing stages. Granted, Mark Johnston's 20/1 shot was getting a fair whack of weight for age, but this was a great effort nonetheless.

And a further fine effort from the super tough and genuine victim of his own partial success, Mount Athos. Lugging top weight here - as is his penance for fine run in defeat after fine run in defeat - Marwan Koukash's second frame placing (he had the winner as well) deserves a big race success.

So it was a great effort and we got a fine run for our money, but ultimately 9/2 the place is not nearly so good as 9/2 the place and 18/1 for the win (returned 16/1). Onwards and downwards...

The more material races for the future were the juvenile 'trials', and it was an Irish jamboree as both the Middle Park and Dewhurst pots were snatched across the sea to the Emerald Isle. In fact, they also snaffled the Rockfel Stakes to boot!

First, it was Crusade who proved three-quarters of a length and more too good for his rivals in the Middle Park Stakes over six furlongs. It's a race that typically produces a high class sprinter rather than a Classic contender, but that doesn't normally stop the winning owner from trying to stretch the stamina beyond the implications of the form book.

Crusade was having his fourth run and was perhaps a typical winner of the race. In his previous three races, he'd been beaten twice at seven furlongs and won his other effort... over six furlongs. This is the Classic Trial for non-stayers!

In behind they were mostly reasonable to quite good sticks, but nothing in here is going to win a Group 1 next year beyond six furlongs (if at all) I wouldn't have thought.

Onto the more meaningful Dewhurst Stakes, presumably named after 'the master butcher', a proper trial for the 2000 Guineas won by the likes of Frankel last term, and Teofilo, Sir Percy, and Rock of Gibraltar in recent times.

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It had also been won by Jim Bolger in three of the previous five years. So quite why his Parish Hall was sent off at 20/1 is beyond me!!! I was playing football at the time and, naturally, hindsight is both a wonderful thing and affords full 20/20 vision.

I do hope that trainer pattern was spotted by some of you as JS Bolger had prevailed here with an 'unfancied' 20/1 shot as recently as 2008 (Intense Focus). He also had the 33/1 third, Glor Na Mara, behind Frankel last year.

OK, so it's obvious looking back. But what about this chap's future prospects?

Well, he won't be winning six furlong races next term, that much is clear. His dad is the aforementioned Dewhurst winner, Teofilo, and his mum calls Montjeu 'daddy', so there's a nice blend of middle distance blood there.

It looks as though he needs at least seven even now, and he might turn out to be a Classic contender next season, without having the pace to win a Guineas or necessarily the stamina to win a Derby. Saying that, he'd probably have a  better chance in the Irish version of the latter race than the Epsom one.

He's unlikely to feature on my ticket for either unless showing considerable progression in the Spring prep races (possible).

Nothing in behind is especially worthy of mention, with the runner-up - favourite, Power - looking all over a sprinter (might win the July Cup next year, you heard it here first!).

The third home, Most Improved, lived up to his name and looking at his pedigree (by Lawman out of a Linamix mare), he might have a nice future. This was only his third run, and there ought to be a fair bit more to come next season. He's a name to remember.

After the Cesarewitch came the  Group 2 Rockfel Stakes for juvenile fillies over seven furlongs. Not too many top notchers emerged victorious here, though 1000 Guineas winners Speciosa and Finsceal Beo, the latter for that man Bolger, were two, and Music Show wasn't bad either.

Wading was much the best here, coming home two lengths clear of a good yardstick in Pimpernel. Wading was second of 20 on debut and, since then, has won back to back races. She looks a stayer, by Montjeu out of Cherry Hinton (a daughter of 'super-dam' Urban Sea, mummy to Galileo and Sea The Stars as well as this lass).

While 10/1 is hardly generous for the 1000 Guineas, it is at least reasonable as she was clearly the pick here, and it's hard to find too many standout candidates for the race elsewhere. She looks certain to progress, this being only her third run, and being a Ballydoyle runner, she won't want for good care.

The 12/1 for the Oaks with Paddy Power is, again, hardly supreme value, but there are lots of reasons to believe she'll a) go to Epsom, and b) go to Epsom with a chance. I've had a cheeky each way on her with PP, and the link below will enable you to do likewise, should you so wish. 🙂

Lastly, the Group 3 Autumn Stakes may not have too many future champions in its midst, but the fourth placed horse was superbly aptly named. He was, of course, Jim Bolger's Whip Rule!

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So, what else is new? Well, the whip rules are! This afternoon's flat meetings at Salisbury, Windsor and Yarmouth (another triumph for race planning with all three in the South!) promise to be frustrating for both pilots and punters alike, as some horses finish placed when they would have won if the race was run yesterday.

Yes, jockeys are required to exercise discretion and be able to count at least up to seven (sorry, that's a bit harsh, even for me!). Some will err on the side of caution. Others will fall foul of the beaks (or, more specifically, the rules), but one thing above all others is certain.

Punters this afternoon will be cursing a combination of the jockeys, the new rules, and the authorities, as wagers which would have won a week ago are lost today.

I have to say that the tardy and somewhat hollow protestations of Kevin Darley, chief executive of the Professional Jockey's Association, do not reflect well on him. It is to be assumed that PJA were given ample opportunity to contribute to the discussions, both in terms of the actual rules and - more materially - the implementation of them.

The fact that Darley is now retrospectively trying to seek a 'bedding in period' smacks of unprofessionalism and a hint of oversight, I'm afraid. I loved the man as a jockey - always excellent value - but something has clearly been missed here, and jocks and punters will be paying this afternoon and for a few weeks to come.

What are your thoughts on the new whip rules? Perhaps you'll be the first to leave a comment cursing a loss as a result of an overturned result or a weaker than expected finish due to the new rules.

My own thoughts on how punters should interpret the rules were outlined in my new monthly report, the Bisogno Bulletin, which costs a whopping £3.82 and can still be acquired here. As well as that, there's also a bunch of hot trainers in October, some insight into what I'm up to at the moment (in terms of current projects, which will be hitting the streets in upcoming weeks and months), and... I'm doing a special 'Bisogno Bulletin readers only' preview for the excellent Champions Day meeting this Saturday at Ascot.

Phew! And all for just £3.82. "What cracking value", I think I heard Eric in Tadcaster, mutter... 😉

Anyway, the feedback's been good and you can get all that lovely goodness for less than four quid (it's actually $5.99, hence the daft sterling amount).

Oh yes, the link. Seriously, I do believe that punters should be making this minor change to their betting in light of the new rules, and it may not be quite as obvious as it should be.

Sign up for the Bisogno Bulletin here.

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And finally, as that man MacDonald, T, used to say, it looks very much like Bet2Win will sell out today. John's been blessed with an excellent run of results (11 winners from his first 16 runners!), which whilst above the normal average of 42% strike rate, is still not unheard of.

Clearly, as the results settle down, there will be losers as well (duh!), but if you've been pondering this, it's last chance saloon. In fact, it might be closed already by the time you read this (not false scarcity - John emailed me last night saying he was going to contact his own 'pending' list and that would be it, so I don't have any 'official' latitude to mention this...)

So, if it's still there, here's your last chance for now at least to get in on Bet2Win.

That's all for today - I'll be back later in the week no doubt, with another unmissable posting on the always fascinating virtual platform that is geegeez.co.uk...! 😉

Until then, have a great week.

Matt

 

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12 replies
  1. Bill says:

    Hi Matt
    Thanks for the info bet2win but for me I cannot see value in this, not keen on backing very short favourites. I must confess emailed the people with a question and got a very prompt and curtious reply which is great. I am sure they will get a lot of winners but question long term profit to risk ratio.
    Thanks again. Bill.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Bill

      No problem. No system or service is for everyone. I personally enjoy backing bigger priced winners, but I also know that requires discipline to stick out the losing runs.

      The long term profitability of Bet2Win is proven, and the profit to risk ratio is fair too. But, bottom line, one has to build a portfolio according to one’s own tastes. It never has been, and never can be, a case of ‘one size fits all’.

      Best Regards,
      Matt

      p.s. I’m not surprised about the courteous reply, which is entirely in line with my experiences of John (and Mark, his brother and business partner).

  2. David says:

    Hi Matt
    Two things, firstly many thanks for Bet2Win. Genius or what?
    Secondly beware Paddy Power ante post places. Big handicaps I always bet 5 places rather than a slightly bigger price, so a few quid ew on Rainforest Magic 12 days ago was my bet. Only 2 bookies, Corals and one other I think Wm Hill were only 4 places. The horse placed 5th but there was no change in my account balance. I phoned PP and was told only 4 places at the particular time I placed the bet, then they went 5 places then 4 again then 5 on the day. I know for a fact PP website said 5 places as did Oddschecker. What can you do, nothing. It’s not the place money, thats peanuts, but the whole principle of the thing. If I ever use PP again, along with all my future bets with anyone, I will be foresaking the trees and printing all my bets off,
    Cheers
    David

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi David

      That’s not good. I bet with them and the bet clearly states the place terms – see below, which is a copy and paste.

      Selection Selection Details Result
      1
      Horse Racing
      NEWMARKET
      15:50 CESAREWITCH HERITAGE HANDICAP 2m 2f
      8th of Oct 2011 3:50 pm
      Win or E/W
      1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5
      Ermyn Lodge @ 18/1 (GP)
      Place

      Stake and Return Details
      Bet placed at 7th of Oct 2011 11:07 am Total Stake £100.00
      Bet type Single (Each-Way) Tax@Tax free 0
      Number of lines 2 Total stake due £100.00
      Stake per line £50.00 Freebets Redeemed £0.00
      Channel Internet Total amount paid £100.00
      Number of win lines 1
      Number of void lines 0 Returns £275.00
      Total Returns £275.00

      So not sure what happened, but I think there is a general principle of due diligence here. Just as you should always ‘check your change before leaving the counter’ in shops, so you should check the terms of the struck wager!

      Best,
      Matt

  3. Frank says:

    Hi Matt
    I am sending this email to thank you for your honest opinion of the Bet2win system,I have not seen comments or results like this before. So glad I am one of the chosen 250.Once again a big thank you.
    I remain a loyal fan.Also,I almost forgot,Ermyn Lodge another cracker.
    Cheers
    Frank

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      It’s a pleasure Frank.

      As I’ve said a couple of times already, 40% winners is sustainable. The current level, which is more like 65%, is not, so you’ll know to expect a couple of bad days as well.

      Best,
      Matt

  4. Liam says:

    Bet2win. It gets a five star rating from me. This may sound strange but they have given me three winners one after the other. Not their fault, that Click Bank did a flip. Then there was no way to pay the money to join until the glitch had been sorted on their website.
    Lucky for them, they know Gavin Priestly and he helped them out and me, to be able to get on the 6.20 One Term the last of their race’s on Saturday. Followed by Sunday and now this afternoon, 3 from 3 winners. The first alone, paid for my 3 months sign up. So I now have two trusted and sensible systems in my Portfolio, I do not want to tread on anyone’s toes But John and Mark have been great in getting me up and running and on the point, of taking it slowly, and not lumping on in case of a fall, Remember the Each Way King, Andrew David of O.P.M He continues to function after so many have folded after the summer Big Upsets, Ascot etc.
    I will always follow his safety rule, even if I do bet to win. I will have an e/w if it is over 3/1 as some insurance. I wish all of us in the Bet2win syndicate a Prosperous future gently gently. 1/5 th is the way to profit over time.

  5. Ted says:

    Thanks from me for Ermyn Lodge honestly thought the winner would collapse towards the end but no Dettori carried it over the line Damn!!!
    Best way to earn money lately, follow Hannon’s 2yos showing a massive profit of around 90pts laborious I know but what a reward.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Not wrong Ted – Hannon has been simply phenomenal with his juvies this year. 🙂

Comments are closed.