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I'm back. Let's back!

I'm back. Let's back!

I'm back, dear reader, after a few days out of the loop while I helped my Winning Trainers 2.0 subscribers get up to speed with everything inside the members' area there. WT2.0 is now sold out, and I'll now be dividing my time between those subscribers and you, my dear old geegeez readership.

So, what's new? Good weekend? I've had a cracking time, despite the workload. I managed to get out to a stable on Friday for the first of the promised stable tours for WT2.0 members. That was fantastic.

And yesterday, I was a guest of Tony Stafford, representing Raymond Tooth, as the guvnor's Freeport dead-heated in the 5.00 at Windsor. It was my first trip to the track - bizarrely, given it's only about an hour away - and I have to say that, whilst finding winners there has always been tough for me, it's a gorgeous course on a sunny day.

Tonight, I'm off to 'Leafy' Lingfield, where the old goat, Khajaaly, runs. He's owned by a syndicate I set up and runs in the colours of geegeez.co.uk (red, white and blue, natch!)

Alas, although he's showing plenty at home and the trainer's very pleased with him, it remains to be seen whether he decides he wants to do it on the track tonight. He's become a bit wise these days, but Adam Beschizza will keep him honest, and we'll see how it goes. He wouldn't want the ground softer than good, ideally.

Then, on Thursday, I'll be back at Lingfield to watch Vastly, in which I own a share, attempt to show he's a better horse on all weather than on turf, which I suspect. He's got top weight there, but he's a massive horse - hence the name - and I wouldn't be worried about that. With luck, he'll make the frame.

It's Epsom and the Oaks on Friday. I'll be working out of the press room, as I pull together a full preview of Derby Day for geegeez readers. And, of course, I'll also be covering Oaks day in full on here.

Saturday I'm in two minds as to whether to go to the Derby. It's. Just. So. Busy.

And finally, after a few days off, I may well be heading to Worcester (or possibly Ffos Las) where we hope to run Priceless Art, the second geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse. We've had to be very patient with him as he's had plenty of problems. But, touch wood, we feel like we're getting there now, and we're excited to see this one run as he has a decent level of form already in the book.

Phew! That's a lot of racing coming up and I can't wait. 🙂

********

To today, and after a few days off, the placepot picks are back. The back story here is that I'd signed a deal with Mal Boyle - our excellent stats man - to provide placepot coverage in a similar vein to that which he does on sportinglife.com. But a combination of his existing workload and my demanding nature (I know, it's hard to believe!) meant that didn't work out as we'd have liked: it was always a trial run for us.

That left me holding the placepot baby and, whilst I love love love the bet, I don't always have the time to dedicate to the six races that comprise the 'pot. So, I'm sorry for the short hiatus, but I'm now back and raring to go. It's my intention to widen these placepot previews out to incorporate a meeting preview so, even if you're not interested in the placepot, you might still find a horse you want to back as a consequence of reading. Make sense? Good!

OK, Newton Abbot today, as I'm dodging both Leicester and Redcar. You can see all of today's racing on the racecards here. I'm clearly biased but I think these are about the zippiest race cards on the internet. See what you think: Today's Racing.

Leg 1: 2.20 - We start with a maiden hurdle and talk about how are the mighty fallen... Honour System won a Meydan handicap on the flat off 102 (!) last January and was third in another off 105. A year off, and he's run three moderate races in hurdle company, a sure indication that he's not the horse he was. Whilst this wouldn't take a lot of winning, he's hardly a reliable proposition despite that latent talent.

Looking Hopeful is a seven-year-old novice and could be a 'bleeder' (bursts blood vessels when running, which stops horses very quickly). Certainly his finishing efforts have been very tame recently. Not for me.

Emma Lavelle's horses aren't really in much form either, so second favourite, Staigue Fort, is hardly robust in here. He is probably the pick of the top trio, though, and has been fairly consistent.

Greenaway's Eye and Anglingforcharlie have one run between them, and it wouldn't take a machine to win this race. Both could get competitive. And Macarthur, the highest officially rated of these on 110, would have needed the run last time and could improve.

A - 11 (Staigue Fort)
B - 5 (Macarthur), 13 (Anglingforcharlie), 15 (Greenaway's Eye)

Leg 2: 2.50 - If we're still going, it does get slightly easier. I really like American Spin here, for Luke Dace. A high class hurdler, he's a mile clear of these on ratings. Although he wouldn't want it too soft - not sure how much rain is in the southwest today - he stays well and has more class than this lot put together. I've backed him.

Banker.

A - 1 (American Spin)

Leg 3: 3.20 - This is a terrible novice hurdle, and it's inconceivable that if Qoubilai finishes the race, he won't be in the frame. He might get beaten by Neston Grace, who has a likeable attitude, but he might not. Not a betting race, except to bank on the favourite.

A - 3 (Qoubilai)

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Leg 4: 3.50 - A fair handicap, including an old friend of mine. Anquetta leads the field with top weight and bids to follow up a win at Worcester last time. He loves decent ground and should get that here. This is also a drop in class, and that man Waley-Cohen takes off five pounds. Obvious chance.

The favourite though is Fiftyonefiftyone, on a hat-trick after two Class 4 wins. He's never won higher than Class 4 even though he's had eleven tries. I'd be surprised if he broke his duck today.

Two who will love the class, ground and trip are Mister Matt and my old mate, Takeroc. The former - well named, isn't he? 😉 - won round here in Class 2 last summer, beating Shooters Wood in a driving finish. He might get a nice tow into the race behind Unforgettable and Fiftyonefiftyone, and could go very well. He's a big price at 12/1

Takeroc is probably regressive these days, having been a good egg in his time. He's another who will probably stalk the pace and, if he's still good enough, pounce late. There are very few horses I follow religiously, but he's one, so I'll be backing him today! (Small stakes only)

Mibleu is old and has an inexperienced amateur on today. No thanks, though I'm worried that he's been so well backed. And anyone who backs a Robin Dickin horse at the moment gets what they deserve. He hasn't had a winner since Noah was a boy. A couple have placed recently and maybe the corner is near, but it's certainly not been turned yet.

A - 1 (Anquetta), 2 (Mister Matt)
B - 5 (Takeroc), 7 (Fiftyonefiftyone)

Leg 5: 4.20 - This looks like a very competitive handicap hurdle, but Lord of the Dunes has been punted half to death. He's a best priced 7/4 as I write, and while he's obviously placepot 'A' material, he's far from a banker.

There are three other last time out winners here, and all require closer inspection. Nothing Is Forever is a course and distance winner that loves fast ground. He's won off 95 and has 92 here, so is capable of winning.

Party Palace is also a course and distance winner, and has won off a similar mark. 11/1 is a decent each way proposition, I think, with the decent Giles Hawkins nicking three pounds off his back.

Titch Strider was winning his first race in nineteen starts last time, and this drop in trip isn't obviously what he needs. He's overlooked.

Tamarillo Grove wouldn't be fantastically well handicapped but he does like it here, and is taking a drop in class. Conditions will suit well enough. And Kayfrou may not be a completely forlorn hope either.

A - 3 (Lord Of The Dunes), 12 (Party Palace)
B - 1 (Tamarillo Grove), 10 (Nothing Is Forever)

Leg 6: 4.50 - A lady amateurs' selling handicap hurdle. Gulp. Jockey ability and market support could be crucial here. The best riders in the field are Gina Andrews and Lucy Gardner, the former riding the favourite, Sovereign Spirit; the latter riding a 20/1 poke, Jigsaw Financial.

The money has come for Dune Shine, with the same connections as the favourite - hmm - and Millie O'Brien.

Sovereign Spirit seems versatile as to ground, and has the best form in the race. He's an A banker. I'll top up with some B's, just in case.

Jewellery is having only his second start for Kevin Bishop, having been moved from Victor Dartnall's yard, and he'll surely run better than the last time out 'P'. I can't ignore the money for either Dune Shine or Millie O'Brien and they go on B too. Jigsaw Financial actually wasn't beaten that far, in the context of a race like this, and the pilot indicates that there may be scope for hope.

A - 4 (Sovereign Spirit)
B - 1 (Dune Shine), 3 (Jewellery), 10 (Jigsaw Financial), 11 (Millie O'Brien)

Just A's - 1 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 1 = 4 bets

All picks - 4 x 1 x 1 x 4 x 4 x 5 = 320 bets

Ticket builder optimized perm - see below.

Newton Abbot Placepot

Newton Abbot Placepot

Readers can use the ticket builder at www.geegeez.co.uk/ppot/ to create their own part perms.

Place your toteplacepot bets with totepool directly, using the link below:

totesport.com

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17 replies
  1. simon. says:

    love the placepot like yourself Matt, so I am chuffed to see it back.
    having a go @ NAbbott myself.
    I like to try and target a couple of races and hope for a shock or two.
    1.fav
    2.9
    3.fav
    4.fav
    5. 1,5,13
    6. 6,7,11
    9@20p.

  2. simon says:

    thanks matt. trying something different than usual ,as I don’t normally include Favs.
    looking at the stats for each racetype and individual race to see the performance of the Fav. also the Betfair market has such an influence on the Sp’s these days and the really informed money comes in during the last 5 minute lead up to the race. so the early RPost fav can be well wide of the mark come the start of the race. hence the unnamed Fav.
    still need loads of luck and racing can leave you scratching your head most times but you never know !!
    what do you think ?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      I prefer a race by race approach, Simon. I generally don’t like favourite stats, as they don’t really mean anything. Not to me, anyway!

      For instance, that favourite is a bleeder, and you couldn’t pick that up from the stats.

      Matt

  3. Josh W says:

    Great read Matt, I am yet to get into the placepot seriously but for now just used your info to guide any bets…and having read this I got on American Spin, class often wins out and the 5/2 I got now looks very generous! thanks for pointing him out wouldnt have looked at race otherwise.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Josh. He’s not the most natural fencer, but has bags of class in this context. Palace Jester… well, he was well named.

      I wonder if they might take the visor back off next time. Probably didn’t help the horse…

      Matt

  4. Josh W says:

    yes he isn’t the most fluent but as you point out, i this context he was the clear class pick, went off at the right price in the end so was nice to beat SP, stacks of money must have come late. I think he was crying out for those extra 4 furlongs which helped. I have placed a very small bet on Mister Matt EW, if he gets an uncontested lead up front he could prove tricky to peg back round this course, would be disappointed if outside top 3! McCoy could be about to unleas kitchen sink on takeroc and drag him over the line!

  5. Josh W says:

    is that the placepot landed? few favs not in the frame so was it a good dividend?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Paid £250.40, and the £23.20 perm with the ticket builder scored £1.20 of it on ticket 5. That was worth £300.48 to me and anyone else who joined in. I also backed American Spin for a few quid at 11/4, so a nice day at Newton Abbot. 🙂

      Matt

  6. mintyrambler says:

    Hi Matt – “over the moon” !!! Only went with your “A” picks got to race six and Sovereign Spirit (non runner) so I went with Master Wells you know the rest !!!

    2 x shares of the placepot for £4.00p – what a return.

    Great stuff – many thanks.

  7. simon says:

    just got back from Work, well done on the placepot Matt. looking forward to future pots !!

  8. Josh W says:

    hi Matt, this may be a basic question (always learning!!)…could you, or another more experienced place potter than myself, explain the minimum bet. I see your ticket 1 comes to £1.60…I always thought minimum unit stake on tote was £2…or is that just on course? presume if you bet through tote online you can bet lower than £2? when I have bet on placepot before I have bet through another bookie where I thought minimum was £2… thanks

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Josh

      It depends where you’re betting. I tend to use Betfair, where the minimum unit stake is 10p and the minimum ticket stake is £1. So for the 40p ticket, I tripled the stake (cost me an extra 80p). If you’re betting in the shops, I think the tote terminals will take a minimum ticket stake of £1 still but the minimum unit stake is 5p.

      Hope that helps,
      Matt

  9. Josh W says:

    thanks Matt, yes that is helpful…definitely need to get into the placepot more. Very excited about PA running soon , hopefully all goes well!

  10. Stuart says:

    Cheers Matt
    Used all the A’s for a £2 stake received £125.00

    Many Thanks.
    Stu.

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