Bet365 Gold Cup: Last Big Jumps Winner of the Season?

The trouble with going to the well too often, dear reader, is that - sooner or later - the pail will come up dry. For this reason, allied to the fact that the trends are not terrible strong, I am loathe to honour my duty in taking a look at the Bet365 Gold Cup.

Nevertheless, preview it we must, for there is a winner in the midst of the fifteen declared runners. And, by processes of elimination, we should at least get nearer to it.

A strong-ish trend is that 8 of the last ten winners carried less than 11 stone. This is consistent with most long distance chases, where it is tough to lug a big weight against less-exposed, and more lightly-weighted opponents. Fortunately for us, if we believe that stat will hold tomorrow, we can strike out six of the field.

Let's do that, and make it an nine runner race - much more manageable (assuming we still have the winner in the nonet!)

Supporting the notion about unexposed runners, chasers in either their first or second season have won eight of the last ten renewals. This counts against Laskari, Church Island, Bowleaze, Oodachee, and Briery Fox.

Just four left at this point, and they are: Oscar Park, Hennessey, Verasi, and Zacharova.

Now let's think about class for a moment. Only one of the last ten winners had failed to achieve at least a silver medal in a Class 1 or 2 race earlier that season. Oscar Park pulled up on his only start this year, and is excluded. Hennessey, too, hasn't troubled the judge in top company, so is ruled out.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Verasi has enough P's in this season's form figures for TWO Scrabble sets, and needs it soft anyway, so is readily eliminated despite his shrewd connections.

Finally, then, Zacharova... alas, he has only won three Class 3 chases this season. In what looks a sub-standard renewal with very much an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' feel to it, he might be good enough.

Certainly his trainer, Venetia Williams, has a fine record at the track, and neither trip nor going should be a major incumbrence. Bounce Back won as a 6yo back in 2002, so age is no barrier either.

In summary, it's a weak looking contest, and - despite 'failing' the last stat - Zach is by far the best qualified horse on trends, and is the most likely winner. At 16/1, he looks good value... But don't quote me on it! ;o)

Have a great weekend - it's the last game of the football season for me tomorrow (should have retired years ago!), followed by the end of season drink up in Islington's finest Irish bar (yes, O'Neills!), so expect no word from Geegeez Towers until at least Monday...

Matt

12 replies
  1. Sven says:

    Hello,

    at NagNagNag, the 2009 Sandown ‘Classic Trial’ Trends Guide says something else.

    Who will be the winner of this contest?

    Sven

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Sven

      It is easy to be confused between Gavin’s NagNagNag productions and my Geegeez ones. We are ‘sister’ blogs, but our editorial content is separate and distinct from each other. Thus, the fact that Gavin selects one horse using his interpretation of the trends, does not in itself prevent me from selecting a different animal.

      As was the case with the Irish Grand National, when we both plumped for Niche Market, we sometimes find the same horse; but we often disagree on which are the material statistics / trends. This is healthy, and part of the fun of horse racing.

      Hope this clarifies (though I suspect it may not!)

      Matt

  2. daniel mackenzie says:

    no confusion whatsoever you both tell it as you see it, which is how it will always be, good write ups,anyway i,m going for zach

  3. paul garraway says:

    dear all fellow
    punters
    been following matt 4 last month some very good info
    pity i did not no about site earlyer i had good share in horse called soeur fontanail very good fun shame she died 2 years ago could have given some good info i am very impressed with info i am getting now so lets all get behinehim and win money keep it up matt paul

  4. sunil says:

    But this point confusion remain dear matt, which one choese from both of you. better i’ll go for my self.

  5. chris says:

    Before reading this blog I’d selected Zach for no other reason than it is trained by Venetia Williams – but I don’t know why. Instinct?

  6. Donkers says:

    The poor quality of this renewal probably counted against it being a good trends p[erformer in hindsite….still…Down to the last four….Hennessey, too, hasn’t troubled the judge in top company, so is ruled out….. Seemed fair enough to me.

    Perhaps any horse ridden by Tony McCoy should be upgraded by at least two classes compared to its winning form when discussing any trends race in which he is involved!? He virtually picked up carried Hennessey up the hill at the finish. The man is a true master of his craft. Its worth losing money on a bet to watch a great race and a ride so perfectly timed it defies science and logic as well as statistics! 🙂

  7. Matt Bisogno says:

    Hear, hear Donkers. Another absolute master class from that man McCoy. He must be the greatest jockey ever. Another jockey might have pulled him up down the back straight when he decided to walk through fences rather than leap over them.

    Top drawer!

    Matt

  8. mattgiffin says:

    even thou i questioned your tip i still went with you,why because you have proved you know more than me and not ashamed to admit it
    backd hennessey as well so a good day all round

    thanks for the tip, thats 2/4 for me a 50% strike rate

    33/1 and a 10/1

    keep up the good work cheers matt

Comments are closed.