BetBright Chase Preview, Trends, Tips
The Betbright Chase (formerly Racing Post then Racing Plus Chase) is always a cracking race, run over three miles of Kempton's steeplechase circuit. It's a Grade 3 handicap, and will be run on soft ground this year.
The sponsors BetBright have a brilliant offer - double the odds on your Betbright Chase fancy! - for new customers, so let's see if we can relieve them of a few quid, starting with the trends...
BetBright Chase Trends
Age: Six to eight year olds have by far the best strike rate in the race, with a combined 11/99 win record (11%), and a 31/99 place record (31%). Older horses have won six of the last seventeen renewals, but from 120 runners (5%) and have been hugely expensive to follow. Just 22 of the 120 were placed (18%), which is little better than half as good as the younger guns achieved.
Rating: 15 of the last 17 winners were rated 140+. Given that only four of this year's line up can boast an official mark of at least 140, this could be a telling trend.
Weight: Interestingly, this handicap has generally gone the way of the top end of the weights, with eleven of the last seventeen winners carrying eleven stone or more. 28 of the 53 placed horses also carried at least 11-00.
Market: All of the last sixteen winners were priced up at 12/1 or shorter. 41 of the 53 placed horses were also in this price range.
Form: Fourteen of the last seventeen winners finished 1-2-3 last time out, with eleven of them winning.
The trends shortlist consists of the Paul Nicholls pair, Grandioso and Bury Parade.
BetBright Chase Form Preview
Bury Parade is not only one of the trends choices, but he's also the favourite at around 4/1. Winner of two of his last three starts, he has top weight in this contest, a burden that couldn't stop past winners Gungadu (same trainer), Farmer Jack and Marlborough from prevailing.
Bury Parade has won on good to soft and heavy ground, and takes a quarter mile step up in trip here. Although he has yet to prove he stays that far, the easy nature of his last win suggests it will be within his compass and he's a worthy jolly. One reservation however is that he did refuse to race in between those two recent wins.
Second favourite and fellow eight-year-old, Ardkilly Witness, looks to have a fair form chance in receipt of a bit more than a stone from Bury Parade. He was flattered by the winning margin two starts back when his closest rivals - and first two in the betting that day - Holywell and Provo both failed to finish.
Since then, he's run a good second to Venetia Williams' Relax, but that might be the problem with him: he's fundamentally susceptible to anything with a change of gear, as a career record of two wins and seven 2nd/3rd places from eleven starts amply demonstrates.
Nicholls' apparent second string, Grandioso, has a lot going for him. Firstly, he won a Grade 2 novice chase at the track last year. Second, he's won on soft ground. Third, he has a likeable five from fifteen career win record. On the downside, he's yet to race this far, though he was staying on the last day when a five length runner up to Bury Parade (Grandioso four pound better off at the weights this time). However, he might just be suited by this slightly quicker turf - it was heavy that day, and his record in soft ground chases reads 121.
He's 15/2 with the sponsors, which translates to 15/1 with the double the odds concession (best price 9/1 elsewhere). That is very tempting.
Standing Ovation represents David Pipe and, while anything run on a Saturday from that yard commands respect, his winning run was blown out of the water spectacularly last time. Pipe had actually manufactured a mark of 94 for this fellow, which allowed him to complete a four-timer, culminating in a five length Listed win off 120. Now rated 133, things will clearly be tougher. Of equal concern would be the state of the ground: all his wins were on good to soft or faster.
He's coming back fresh and, as I've written, I do respect the trainer but I expect there are better handicapped horses than him this time.
Planet Of Sound is a great old stick. Now twelve, he's a course and distance winner on soft ground last time out, and was third in this race two years ago. He'll undoubtedly be a popular winner, but he's not for me at the veteran stage.
The likes of Baile Anrai (hard race four weeks ago and not progressing aged ten), the novice What's Happening, and Midnight Appeal (the heavier the better - sun shining here in Hackney at time of writing) make little appeal.
One who could return to form at a price - 10/1 which becomes 20/1 with the sponsor's concession - is Tour Des Champs. Still only seven, he's had thirteen chase starts and has been raced over too far the last twice. As a consequence, he's slipped ten pounds in the handicap to his last winning mark of 127 - a mark off which he won a three mile soft ground handicap chase, the same conditions as today.
Tour Des Champs' four wins have all come on flat tracks - like Kempton - and have been on ground ranging from good to soft to heavy. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is in great form just now, and 20/1 is irresistible value here.
BetBright Chase Tips
Most likely winner:
Bury Parade 4/1 (8/1 with BetBright for new customers - see below)
Best value alternatives:
Grandioso 9/1 (15/1 with BetBright for new customers - see below)
Tour Des Champs 10/1 (20/1 with BetBright for new customers - see below)
How to get double odds on the BetBright Chase
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I already have an account with BetBright, which is a shame because I'd love to back Tour Des Champs at 20/1! If you don't have one, then this is a standout offer from a new up-and-coming bookie, and well worth availing of, whichever horse you fancy.
The Terms and Conditions of the offer are:
· Only available to new customers.
· Applies to bets placed after final declarations for the BetBright Chase.
· Min bet £5, max £20. One per customer.
· Applies to first bet placed on BetBright Chase only, any other bets will be settled at price taken or sp only.
· Applies to win part of e/w bets only.
· Double odds not displayed on site but will be applied max 12hrs after settlement.
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· Cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer.