Betfair Killer System Review

Betfair Killer betting system review

Betfair Killer betting system

Another day, another system, dear reader, and this one is called Betfair Killer. It's not a horse racing system but, rather a series of football systems. It costs £27 - the new 'de facto' price for this production line, it seems - and I wasn't expecting much...

Firstly, I was refreshed to see that there was no nasty video on the sales page, and no 'tripwire' upsell after purchase. Good news.

However, on the Betfair Killer download page, it does say at the bottom, "To your forex success". Clearly, this guy has forex products as well. No big deal, just a slightly careless oversight.

Now then, the product. It's a 27 page ebook, with the first six and the last four given over the padding (how to understand decimal odds, using a bot, etc). In the seventeen pages of 'meat' in Betfair Killer, there are actually five football trading strategies.

To clarify for those who aren't sure, trading is about backing or laying something, with a view to making a subsequent opposite bet later, to guarantee a profit whatever happens. For instance, if I back the Racing Post Pricewise horse as soon as I know it at 13.0 on Betfair, and then when the 'paper is published, the odds plummet to 8.0, I can lay the same horse at the shorter odds to either recoup my stake and have a free bet at the difference in odds, or to lock in a smaller profit irrespective of the outcome of the race.

There are some errors in the way the examples have been put together (e.g. a reference to Arsenal scoring when Blackburn had, and a profit stated as guaranteed on the 'wrong' eventuality in method three), and I do have a couple of areas of uncertainty, as follows:

1. I'm not convinced that methods four and five will work long term (and they're not what I'd personally want to bet/trade in any case)

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2. There is a clear liquidity issue with method five

For all that, and despite my scepticism, I actually really like method one. In fact, I did some digging on it, and I discovered that you'd have been able to trade out for a nice profit in 104 out of 143 Premier League games last season; 121 out of 171 games in 2008/9; and 121 out of 156 games in 2007/8.

In total, that's 346 matches out of 470 where you would have traded for nice profit (73.6% of games).

Given the average liability of 1.7 (i.e. odds of 2.7) points per game, this looks an extremely promising angle, and I plan to trade this in the coming season.

[N.B. my figures include any appropriate score at the point of trade and not just the one stated in the example.]

Methods two and three are moderately interesting to me, and I couldn't easily find a way to test them, so I can't say if they'll work long term or not.

But in my opinion they're irrelevant anyway. This guide is all about method one, which is simple enough and seems to work.

I give Betfair Killer the thumbs up on that basis. Obviously, I need to wait for the season to start before trading it, and you might not want to wait a month to get involved, but I do reckon this is definitely worth a look for football punters / traders.

To clarify for those who aren't sure, trading is about backing or laying something, with a view to making a subsequent opposite bet later, to guarantee a profit whatever happens. For instance, if I back the Racing Post Pricewise horse as soon as I know it at 13.0 on Betfair, and then when the 'paper is published, the odds plummet to 8.0, I can lay the same horse at the shorter odds to either recoup my stake and have a free bet at the difference in odds, or to lock in a smaller profit irrespective of the outcome of the race.

You can check it out here.

Matt

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18 replies
  1. Bill says:

    Hi Matt
    I’ve had a look at this and have come to the same opinion, method 1 is the only one of any interest to me. To give the guy a fair run out I intend to paper trade the 2nd and 3rd and ignore the last two…personally I think they were only added to make it look as if we are getting something more than we expected. I’m not waiting for the British season to kick off, I don’t see why it shouldn’t work on other matches around the world, I’ll paper trade for a couple of weeks and let you know what happens.

    Cheers

    Bill

    Holland or Spain? – my crotch says Dutch, my brain says Spain.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Bill

      I’ll be interested to hear how you progress with other leagues – as you say, it should work equally well assuming those leagues score at the same rate as the Premier League.

      Re World Cup final, I’m more interested in the 3rd place play off, where I need Klose to score a couple for a nice little bet at 33/1 e/w (and 42 win only on Betfair) for Golden Boot.

      Suspect Spain will win but I hope they don’t. They’re diving, cheating toads, and have played really moderately throughout.

      Matt

  2. Brian says:

    Hi Matt

    Diving cheating toads? a bit harsh! Most teams do that these days. What about Arjen Robben? He’s one of the worst I’ve seen!

    I think Xabi Alonso is a fantastic player and hope he gets a winners medal.

  3. John says:

    Spain? Diving cheating toads?.I take it you havent seen much of Holland’s Mr Robben!!!!

  4. Colin Metcalfe says:

    Bit harsh on Spain methinks ! They gave some of the most gifted players in the world and are simply better at keeping possession than all the other teams (with the possible exception of Brazil).
    What differentiates them from the others is that they can also defend, and in Piqué and Puyol have the best central defensive pairing
    What

  5. Colin Metcalfe says:

    That is why Klose didn’t get a sight of goal in the semi. You still have a squeak of a chance with your golden boot bet though as the Germans should prove too good for Uruguay, but in saying that Villa (most likely) or Schneider may still stop you winning by adding further to their tallies !

  6. Matt Bisogno says:

    Robben plays in the Spanish League. Need I say more? Seriously, Spain have massively underperformed, in terms of football not progress, and got a player sent off by diving in two, nearly three, games. Not to my tastes, I’m afraid.

  7. Michael says:

    If only the rest of the world embraced Australian Rules Football ,then there would be no cheating ,scoreless draws , few goals etc….

  8. Bill says:

    Interesting theory Michael. I am a bit puzzled as to why they are called Australian rules considering no one else in the world plays the “game”…what else could they be? :O)

  9. Big Dave says:

    I think you will find that Robben plays for Bayern Munich and they play in the German Bundesliga Matt

  10. fred says:

    What a load of crap this is. It says in the ebook that half time the odds on the draw will be 1.9 thats crap ! This figure is at about the 65-70 minute mark and you never mention this as being the correct figure this is a lie and so is he spouting off about Arsenal when the team leading is Blackburn how poor is that? If you recommend crap like this then thats poor for you dragging yourslef further into the gutter.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Now listen here, Fred. You really (REALLY) need to check your facts.

      If you actually read my piece you’ll note I said the following directly in relation to your points:

      1. There are some errors in the way the examples have been put together (e.g. a reference to Arsenal scoring when Blackburn had,

      2. Given the average liability of 1.7 points per game (i.e. odds of 2.7), this looks an extremely promising angle, and I plan to trade this in the coming season. (i.e. no reference to the quoted 1.9)

      You see I state both your points in the post and, despite these, the method one has still proved highly profitable over the last three years. (NB I used any appropriate score at half time, not just the one stated in the manual).

      Statements like ‘dragging yourself further into the gutter’ when I’m just presenting the facts as I see them, and when I recommend roughly one in eight of the products I see, and when I always state the downsides, is offensive.

      If that’s your view, then go somewhere else to bitch unthinkingly. There’s plenty of forums packed full of such lazy whiners.

      Matt

      p.s. You didn’t include your real email address (well, you wouldn’t, would you?), which is a pity because I wanted to send you the evidence of the last three years supporting my statement. I can’t put it here because it will ‘give the game away’.

  11. Nick says:

    Hi Matt, where did you get the footy stats for your research from ? I’ve been looking for a source of detailed football statistics (even the basics like half time score) for a while now but so far have found nothing.

  12. fred says:

    matt,

    Thanks for your reply. If the product cannot be presented with the correct figures with the correct teams then to me it shows a lack of effort and confirms to me that nobody has even bothered proof reading this drivel. It is just another churned out system then needs to go in the bin As for my email it is .com not .co.uk my mistake so please send me your proof.

  13. Ross says:

    Go on Matt, ‘give the game away’ mate! Sounds interesting little trading technique, dont be shy! 🙂

  14. steven says:

    just tell me its not back and lay the draw after a goal, i’ve been through two poor houses with that ol’ chestnut.

  15. Michael says:

    Hello Bill and sorry for the delay ,there have been reports on the television of Aussie Rules (so named to establish a difference to Association Football I guess ) being played in several European countries ,several African countries ,Asian countries ,Canada and USA . Admittedly they are only learning the game from Australians who have moved to these areas and/or amateur leagues . At least there is always more than 5 goals every game .

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