Betfair Winner is another Â£27 system off the conveyor belt. And, whilst we're all tired of the same old hyperbole, same old graphics packs, same old (suspected) forged Betfair account screenshots, I continue to take a look at the systems themselves to establish whether or not they have merit.
Generally, the answer is not, and just very occasionally I'm pleasantly surprised by this particular production line. So, what will the Betfair Winner system bring? Let's take a look...
Well, the first thing to say is that the system is easy to operate and based on good sense. It is a trading system, which means we're looking to take advantage of a certain price movement pattern, and only on certain pre-identified horses.
The trade is essentially placing a back bet at Time A, and then placing a lay bet at Time B, when the odds are expected to have contracted. This then gives us the opportunity to either lay the horse for the same amount as we backed it previously, which creates a risk free bet on the horse in question. Or, we can hedge out to guarantee a profit either way.
Let me show you what I mean:
Risk-free bet example
I bet Mister Ed for Â£50 at 3.0 (2/1), meaning a profit of Â£100 if he wins (2 x my Â£50 stake), or a loss of Â£50 if he loses.
A bit later I then lay Mister Ed for Â£50 at his revised odds of 2.5 (6/4). If he wins, I lose Â£75 (1.5 x my Â£50 stake). If he loses I win Â£50.
So, in this example, if Mister Ed wins the race, I win Â£100 from the first (back) bet, and have to pay Â£75 from the second (lay) bet, meaning a profit of Â£25.
If Mister Ed loses the race, I lose Â£50 from my first (back) bet, but win Â£50 from my second (lay) bet, meaning a loss of Â£0.
In other words, I had a free bet to win Â£25.
Hedged position example
In this second example, I placed the same back bet: Â£50 at 3.0 (2/1), meaning a profit of Â£100 if he wins (2 x my Â£50 stake), or a loss of Â£50 if he loses.
But this time, I lay him for more than I back him, in order to 'lock in' a profit irrespective of the outcome. So, at odds of 2.5, I lay Mister Ed for Â£60. This gives me a liability of Â£90.
So, if Mister Ed wins, I win Â£100 from my first (back) bet but lose Â£90 from my second (lay) bet, giving me a net profit of Â£10.
If Mister Ed loses, I lose Â£50 from my first (back) bet but win Â£60 from my second (lay) bet, also giving me a net profit of Â£10.
These examples exclude commission for the sake of simplicity. The rules are exactly the same and in this example, I'd have profited for Â£6.22 net of all commissions, for an exposure of Â£50.
If that sounds taxing, don't fret, because it isn't. It took me about twelve minutes to do the preparatory work on today's five meetings. I identified several potential qualifiers this afternoon as follows, along with their profit and loss to Â£100 stakes (I'll update this later, but wanted to get the post out so you could read the bit at the end!) -
2.10 The MongooseÂ +Â£4.01
2.50 Benedict Spirit +Â£12.94
4.30 AbzolutelyÂ Â -Â£2.37
4.40 Cara's RequestÂ Â +Â£5.98
5.15 Cherry FosfateÂ Â Â -Â£2.40
5.25 Grams and OuncesÂ Â +Â£16.92
5.40 Key WestÂ -Â£34.57
6.10 William van Gogh DNQ
There was a pretty bad reversal in the 5.40 which highlights the downside of such an approach quite well. In fact, there was an option to lay the horse back for the same stake and take the chance that it lost. To me this is gambling and not trading as is the main principle in this report. As such, I chose to lay back for the lowest known liability (i.e. I chose to know my fate before the race started and 'take my medicine', rather than hope the horse got beaten... which it did).
There are a couple of things I like about this system.
Firstly, it doesn't make false promises. (The sales copy does, but the report itself doesn't. I typically always ignore sales copy as salacious claptrap!). The Betfair Winner report talks about not being greedy, about discipline, and about paper trading to begin with.
Secondly, and probably more importantly, Betfair Winner discusses in frank detail what to do if the odds go against you. In other words, if you back a horse and then the odds go longer, meaning you cannot lock in a profit.
It does happen of course, and the manual gives you two ways to mitigate that situation. All good common sense, meaning there will almost never be a situation where you are likely to lose your entire stake (or anything like it), even if/when trading positions go wrong.
I get the definite impression that I've seen Betfair Winner before, and I definitely wonder if this is a re-badged re-release. Given that one of the testimonials is from Stephen Brookes, who used to be responsible for most of the spammy bet systems released before moving on to more lucrative markets like forex and internet marketing (I believe, though probably still selling betting systems pseudonymously), my natural inclination is to suggest you steer well clear of this.
But there is logic to the horses chosen, and there is common sense and caution in the suggested betting approach (i.e. paper trade for two weeks, until you're confident you know what you're doing).
This is a system that can be 'bottified', or automated if you prefer, once you've completed the preparatory work (i.e. fifteen minutes in the morning or the night before).
To be honest, I don't know whether to recommend it or not, so I'm going to place it in the neutral column for now. If you've been using it, do please leave a comment with your experiences to date.
You can read the sales blurb here (naked, i.e. non-affiliated link) - Betfair Winner System
The football season is now in full swing, and I'm entitled to a small gloat regarding Southampton. I had said in my football league preview post that I felt Saints were an awful bet at the price and that I worried how long Alan Pardew would remain in the hot seat. In fact, I said,
Thereâ€™s also strong rumours of dissension between wealthy chairman and manager. Never a good sign. Saints have a chequered recent past and this looks a fairly combustible powder-keg of a situation. If Pardew doesnâ€™t start well, he might not be there by October.
So make October September, and I was spot on, despite one reader commenting "I also thought you might steer clear of rumours, the roles of Pardew and Cortese are well defined and though Cortese does have an air of arrogance he is not stupid and the only way Pardew will leave anytime let alone in October is if the team arenâ€™t doing well in which case winning the league will be improbable anyway."
Sometimes rumours are more than just... well, rumours!
Anyway, the recommended bet is looking reasonable at this stage with Peterborough 2nd in League One (despite being thumped by the mighty Cherry Reds of Bournemouth), Rotherham joint second in League Two, and Burnley fifth in the Championship.
Very early days yet, but we should have some fun over the coming months.
In the Fantasy Football competition, the men are being sorted from the boys, which inevitably means I am plummeting down the rankings!
Richard Halliday's Diegoforlanova now shares top spot with Big Daz's Ghost Town (presumably a Specials fan?) on an impressive 215 points.
There are another three sides with more than 200 points, meaning our league is currently 758th out of the 201,344 leagues entered in the game. Not bad at all.
Finally (and that's the operative word), a (dis)honourable mention for John Laing, who is currently the 'lantern rouge' in Tour parlance, with a 'could do better' score of 78 currently. Come on John, there's still plenty of time! 🙂
Oh yes, I almost forgot to mention that if you want to get the discount for Laying Autumn Profits, today is the last day. Now if you read my previous email on the subject you've likely already decided one way or t'other. If you're still cogitating though, be advised that further such dalliance will incur financial penalty if the decide to purchase. Or, in plain English, it'll cost more from tomorrow!
'nuff said. Sales blurb / signup page is here: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/go/layingautumnprofits.php