Betfair Winner System Review

Betfair Winner is another £27 system off the conveyor belt. And, whilst we're all tired of the same old hyperbole, same old graphics packs, same old (suspected) forged Betfair account screenshots, I continue to take a look at the systems themselves to establish whether or not they have merit.

Generally, the answer is not, and just very occasionally I'm pleasantly surprised by this particular production line. So, what will the Betfair Winner system bring? Let's take a look...

Well, the first thing to say is that the system is easy to operate and based on good sense. It is a trading system, which means we're looking to take advantage of a certain price movement pattern, and only on certain pre-identified horses.

The trade is essentially placing a back bet at Time A, and then placing a lay bet at Time B, when the odds are expected to have contracted. This then gives us the opportunity to either lay the horse for the same amount as we backed it previously, which creates a risk free bet on the horse in question. Or, we can hedge out to guarantee a profit either way.

Let me show you what I mean:

Risk-free bet example

I bet Mister Ed for £50 at 3.0 (2/1), meaning a profit of £100 if he wins (2 x my £50 stake), or a loss of £50 if he loses.

A bit later I then lay Mister Ed for £50 at his revised odds of 2.5 (6/4). If he wins, I lose £75 (1.5 x my £50 stake). If he loses I win £50.

So, in this example, if Mister Ed wins the race, I win £100 from the first (back) bet, and have to pay £75 from the second (lay) bet, meaning a profit of £25.

If Mister Ed loses the race, I lose £50 from my first (back) bet, but win £50 from my second (lay) bet, meaning a loss of £0.

In other words, I had a free bet to win £25.

Hedged position example

In this second example, I placed the same back bet: £50 at 3.0 (2/1), meaning a profit of £100 if he wins (2 x my £50 stake), or a loss of £50 if he loses.

But this time, I lay him for more than I back him, in order to 'lock in' a profit irrespective of the outcome. So, at odds of 2.5, I lay Mister Ed for £60. This gives me a liability of £90.

So, if Mister Ed wins, I win £100 from my first (back) bet but lose £90 from my second (lay) bet, giving me a net profit of £10.

If Mister Ed loses, I lose £50 from my first (back) bet but win £60 from my second (lay) bet, also giving me a net profit of £10.

These examples exclude commission for the sake of simplicity. The rules are exactly the same and in this example, I'd have profited for £6.22 net of all commissions, for an exposure of £50.

If that sounds taxing, don't fret, because it isn't. It took me about twelve minutes to do the preparatory work on today's five meetings. I identified several potential qualifiers this afternoon as follows, along with their profit and loss to £100 stakes (I'll update this later, but wanted to get the post out so you could read the bit at the end!) -

2.10 The Mongoose  +£4.01
2.50 Benedict Spirit +£12.94
4.30 Abzolutely   -£2.37
4.40 Cara's Request   +£5.98
5.15 Cherry Fosfate    -£2.40
5.25 Grams and Ounces   +£16.92
5.40 Key West  -£34.57
6.10 William van Gogh DNQ

Your first 30 days for just £1

Total: +£0.51

There was a pretty bad reversal in the 5.40 which highlights the downside of such an approach quite well. In fact, there was an option to lay the horse back for the same stake and take the chance that it lost. To me this is gambling and not trading as is the main principle in this report. As such, I chose to lay back for the lowest known liability (i.e. I chose to know my fate before the race started and 'take my medicine', rather than hope the horse got beaten... which it did).

There are a couple of things I like about this system.

Firstly, it doesn't make false promises. (The sales copy does, but the report itself doesn't. I typically always ignore sales copy as salacious claptrap!). The Betfair Winner report talks about not being greedy, about discipline, and about paper trading to begin with.

Secondly, and probably more importantly, Betfair Winner discusses in frank detail what to do if the odds go against you. In other words, if you back a horse and then the odds go longer, meaning you cannot lock in a profit.

It does happen of course, and the manual gives you two ways to mitigate that situation. All good common sense, meaning there will almost never be a situation where you are likely to lose your entire stake (or anything like it), even if/when trading positions go wrong.

I get the definite impression that I've seen Betfair Winner before, and I definitely wonder if this is a re-badged re-release. Given that one of the testimonials is from Stephen Brookes, who used to be responsible for most of the spammy bet systems released before moving on to more lucrative markets like forex and internet marketing (I believe, though probably still selling betting systems pseudonymously), my natural inclination is to suggest you steer well clear of this.

But there is logic to the horses chosen, and there is common sense and caution in the suggested betting approach (i.e. paper trade for two weeks, until you're confident you know what you're doing).

This is a system that can be 'bottified', or automated if you prefer, once you've completed the preparatory work (i.e. fifteen minutes in the morning or the night before).

To be honest, I don't know whether to recommend it or not, so I'm going to place it in the neutral column for now. If you've been using it, do please leave a comment with your experiences to date.

You can read the sales blurb here (naked, i.e. non-affiliated link) - Betfair Winner System

********

The football season is now in full swing, and I'm entitled to a small gloat regarding Southampton. I had said in my football league preview post that I felt Saints were an awful bet at the price and that I worried how long Alan Pardew would remain in the hot seat. In fact, I said,

There’s also strong rumours of dissension between wealthy chairman and manager. Never a good sign. Saints have a chequered recent past and this looks a fairly combustible powder-keg of a situation. If Pardew doesn’t start well, he might not be there by October.

So make October September, and I was spot on, despite one reader commenting "I also thought you might steer clear of rumours, the roles of Pardew and Cortese are well defined and though Cortese does have an air of arrogance he is not stupid and the only way Pardew will leave anytime let alone in October is if the team aren’t doing well in which case winning the league will be improbable anyway."

Sometimes rumours are more than just... well, rumours!

Anyway, the recommended bet is looking reasonable at this stage with Peterborough 2nd in League One (despite being thumped by the mighty Cherry Reds of Bournemouth), Rotherham joint second in League Two, and Burnley fifth in the Championship.

Very early days yet, but we should have some fun over the coming months.

In the Fantasy Football competition, the men are being sorted from the boys, which inevitably means I am plummeting down the rankings!

Richard Halliday's Diegoforlanova now shares top spot with Big Daz's Ghost Town (presumably a Specials fan?) on an impressive 215 points.

There are another three sides with more than 200 points, meaning our league is currently 758th out of the 201,344 leagues entered in the game. Not bad at all.

Finally (and that's the operative word), a (dis)honourable mention for John Laing, who is currently the 'lantern rouge' in Tour parlance, with a 'could do better' score of 78 currently. Come on John, there's still plenty of time! 🙂

********

Oh yes, I almost forgot to mention that if you want to get the discount for Laying Autumn Profits, today is the last day. Now if you read my previous email on the subject you've likely already decided one way or t'other. If you're still cogitating though, be advised that further such dalliance will incur financial penalty if the decide to purchase. Or, in plain English, it'll cost more from tomorrow!

'nuff said. Sales blurb / signup page is here: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/go/layingautumnprofits.php

Matt

Your first 30 days for just £1
21 replies
  1. gizzard says:

    If interested in this system then it’s best to put up with a few pop-ups as you leave the page as you are then offered:
    $5 off
    $10 off
    and finally…..half-price

  2. Paul Schaverien says:

    Have to say this sounds very similar to part of The Rich Life System which came out a year or so ago, although that was about 300 pounds for the system.
    Manuals on greening up your bets are always useful but you´ve got to have the discipline to do it and not just leave them as bets.

  3. morton wishart says:

    Matt,
    If the spade is a spade then why try to give it some other name. I don’t generally comment on what I cannot fully understand and for you to sit on the fence is a bit disturbing. Like it or spit it out aand please stop thinking about the fees that it might get you.
    Must say this is very unlike you.
    Regards,
    m

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Morton

      Thanks for your comment, which is always welcome of course.

      Specifically with regards to the Betfair Winner system, you’ll note the statement “(naked, i.e. non-affiliated link)” immediately prior to the link to the product sales page. To clarify, this means I am in no way receiving anything in return for my thoughts on this particular product.

      And as for sitting on the fence, it is an uncomfortable place for me at the best of times, as you’ll have become accustomed to hearing. But, when a system makes a return on investment of 0.000729% in one day’s analysis, it is hard to draw a more meaningful conclusion!

      I’d have to trial the service for a longer period and that may not be possible right now, as builders are coming in tomorrow to destroy my Geegeez Towers harmony alas.

      (As the missus keeps assuring me, it will be great when it’s finished….) 😉

      Best,
      Matt

  4. Fred Ives says:

    Hi Matt, Betfair winner, yes I think its been done before, I haven’t seen the selection system but my gut reaction is that a drop from 2-1 to 6-4, is very very risky. I sometimes mess around on this priciple with odds on favs, I choose these because if any horse has some sort of guarrantee of reducing in price it’s these. I bet to win, then lay at the same time with a keep bet at a lower price and the same stake, but I only reduce the price by about 10%, some days it works but like you just explained you only need one bet to go wrong and you are in Trouble. I don’t like trouble but it’s nice to have a free bet now and again and with odds on, a lot of horses win so you don’t lose much. thanks. Fred Ives

  5. Gordon Mills says:

    Hi Matt

    That BETFAIR WINNER system is as old as time its-self.
    Firstly it is basic mathematics, and secondly different peddlars of crap have been rehashing it over and over again untill the pips squeak.

    Methinks we have now reached the stage where any and all racing systems are a rehash or semi rehash of what has preceded them: Most of them will work for a wee while, so the safest way to use them is NOT to use them:

    If there is an answer I am damned if I know what it is unless it is becoming a bookie:
    Gordon

  6. colin says:

    Morton

    That’s an interesting post – Matt very plainly stated that there was no affiliate link and simply mused that he didnt know what to think of it as there were some good points.
    I bought – at a whole £13 – just to be “educated”

    I do not think it has merit. Opening prices in the range [removed to avoid giving the rules away] are far too high for trading.
    Fred is absolutely correct – the movement on below 2/1 is in small enough increments to make a trade viable and well fancied horses are more likely to keep their prices than higher ones – and if they do eventually drift, the increments are small enough to do little damage.
    The big loser today opened at 7/2 and closed at 6/1. At 7/2 the drift increments are mega. and the margins on steamers are lower too.
    If you take a horse opening at 20/1 and it comes in to 10/1you could make £100 – the same as a horse moving from2 to evens.
    But if it drifts to 30/1 you stand to lose £1000 if per chance it wins. The 2/1 drifting to 3 would “only” lose £100 (These figures are using £100 stakes)
    If my figures are wrong no doubt someone will shame me!
    I know there are options of greening etc to mitigate losses but this puts Fred’s points into perspective.
    I dont know the relevance of a [removed to avoid giving the rules away] – also top trainer and jockey and THEN you are likely to have a horse that meets Fred’s criteria as being well fancied and likely to not only hold but improve its price.
    When I set my trades, I do it on that basis, NEVER more than BF3 at about 10 to 11 a.m. and start looking after the previous race at that course has finished when the activity builds up. If there is a continual steam to make life easy I place my lay at Betfair SP as there is often a last few seconds flurry on the very well backed horses – presumably bookies laying off

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Excellent post Colin – forgive me for the minor edits.

      I think you might have the bones of a decent trading system there.

      Matt

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Jah,

      1. It’s not patronising, though it may very well be annoying 😉
      2. It should appear no more than once a week, which I hope you can live with.

      Please confirm you haven’t seen it again since it ‘seemed’ to be back.

      Thanks,
      Matt

  7. colin says:

    Matt – you say “speak your mind” As you know, that is what I do and what I did – and it WAS (you know what) You are not so diplomatic in OUR mail! So, I do not appreciate the first edit but totally understand the others with regard to the system itself – although it does make one of my bits of reasoning incomprehensible!

    As to the “decent trading system” – I use it 2 0r 3 times a week when the mood and time permits – you do need to be in a particular mind set to trade, I usually go for horses with early up and down graph but overall down, hit the up and set the lay at 4 points down. I always green and take around £6 to £8 a race. VERY occasionally I make a small loss, but have not yet had a losing day.The most I have done is 6, usually 3 or 4 races as it is time consuming and initially before the lay comes in demanding on the Betfair bank
    If I was brave, I would just take the 6/4 or less on horses that qualify in my methodoligy and leave them on Betfair SP for the lay. Generally this quaruples the profits, but as you cannot cancel a betfair SP layI don’t do it as I no longer have any vestige of control! Anyway, a bird in the hand and all that.

    Another thing against the higher priced horses is that it is sometimes difficult to get £100 on before the price moves again – with the lower prices that sort of liquidity is of no problem

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Colin,

      Yes, fair enough. I basically have two rules for comments on the blog: no pitch and no bitch! In email exchanges with me (i.e. one to one), anything goes! 😉

      Hope you understand, and thanks again for the very interesting trading ideas.

      Matt

  8. colin says:

    Addendum to last post – if leaving to the betfair SP this would be a straigh not greening free back bet – as the strike rate in Maidens at Evens or below is in excess of 50% there is more money to be made this way by sticking with the profit on the winner only than on greening which while nice does dissipate the profit somewhat

  9. colin says:

    I fight cat and dog with J.F’M but defend him on the blogs!
    Anyway, your house, your rules and accepted.

    My trade today (only doing one as in and out) is 4.20 Lingfield Goosberry.
    I backed mid morning at BF3.45 £100
    Layed off a while back at BF3.00 stake of £211 gives me a £20 profit if loses and £25 if wins.
    When I looked a couple of minutes ago it was 2.84 and as it is now 4.21 will open another window to check result and BF SP. Currently in running. Betfair SP 2.88
    Horse lost – so I made my little profit!

    I appreciate I took it at over Betfair 3 but there was a slow and steady shortening of price and everything else looked right, Neil Callan an excellent jockey and a wide gap to 2nd fav, and a maiden which has best ratio of winning favourites.
    As I have being doing this for some time now I feel confortable with a minor breaking of my own rules if I believe the conditions are right.

    Incidentally, the best trade prospect of the day was Auden 15.00 Brighton. 12 selections and fell nicely into Fred parameters. Early price 1.69. Betfair sp 1.40. I would have backed £100 to win and layed £100 to take all the profit on the VERY hot favourite winning – an easy £29 – but it lost. So there would have be no spilt blood. It could have been greened with a lay of ££115 to make £15 as a loser and £23 as a winner. The profits are better greening at the lower prices.(I didnt do this one as knew would not be home to monitor the period leading up to the race)
    All “tutorials” you see on greening gives even monies win or lose, this sint necessary. If the horse is, for example, hot favourite and especially if in a small field and a maidenflat or jumps novice chase
    it has a better chance of winning so keep the bias towards a higher profit for a win. If you have a higher price in a biggish field and a closely priced 2nd and perhaps 3rd favourite, bias your profit towars the lay side.

    Could go on and on, but will stop now
    Colin

  10. colin says:

    Matthew – I trade because I am risk averse!
    Backing throws up too many long runs – Matts own system with a historic 30plus strike rate suffered, I believe a 20 losing run – and even the most succesful of lay systems with strike rates in the high 80’s have losing runs of three, often, and sometimes four.
    Now it is a fact that the higher the strike rate, the higher is the price. Some currently being peddled say their average losing price is about 9/2.
    Now 4 x 9/2 is only 16 points…..the problem is when points become ££££’s. 16 x 100 is £1600!!
    And on loss recovery ouch.

    So, it comes down to trading.

    If you want an early a.m. guide, start with RP . Short cut is do not look at races with forecast sp of over 3/1 and races with more than 10 runners.
    Go to selections, and initially dont note anything under10 for that horse. In practice, you will be looking at smaller fields and non handicaps, but you will soon get the feel of it.. I use horses at 8 and 9 selections – but there must be no more than 2 for any other horse and ideally only one.You really do get the feel for it.
    You do not need to look at anything else except jockey and trainer as the general public, particularly on Saturdays will often pile in on the jockey, helping our price down.
    That a large proportion of the tipsters have selected the horse means that their computers have looked at ratings, going for etc etc which is why the horse has been picked and why it will be backed. We neednt duplicate that work!
    The few horses you find check jockey AND trainer. Make sure they are in top 3 for that course for that race.
    This takes no more than 10 minutes even on a Saturday once you do elimainations by “feel”

    Take an early look at Betfair. My first peek is about 8.00a.m. Horse must be favourite and around 2 points clear of 2nd fav – Put on one side horses with an early BF price higher thatn forecast SP to ceck again.
    If horse already drifting, forget it.
    If it all feels right and there is a gradual falling off in the price I sometimes back as early as then and put in a lay bid4 or 5 pips down. When I look again. 10 0r 11 I usually find I have a small profit and if all seems right will start again.
    But to start with I was thrilled to make around £5 a time 3 or 4 times a day.
    Peanuts some will say, but now I have a feel for it I have made as much as £104 but usually around £60. Sooner or later I will stake £200 when I will double my daily take! The nice thing, keeping to these priced horses the liquidity is there usually in the hour and certainly half our before the race.

    I have often found liquidity at evening meetings not so good.

    I started of playing with £10 stakes and making less than £1 a time – but I also only LOST £1 a time while on the learning curve..
    If you try it let me know. I am not an expert and I do not use BOTs cant get excited by all the last minute in and out stuff, far too unpredicable and that close to start you are at the mercy of the big boys throwing thousands at it – but it works for me as the downside is low if you do it right and the upside, once you have grown in confidence is great. £300 can easily be traded and when I get into that mindset I can see that £200 is NOT a pipe dream but very qchievable.

    Incidentally – dont try to recover in-play.Especially on highr priced horses. If you have a front running favourite that sets off quickly the price is likely to shorten nicely – but if it starts slowly or is a Spencer ridden held back horse the price can easily go out. Been there, done that, lost the bank!!
    Anyway good luck

  11. mathew says:

    Great stuff how much do you make a day ? and do you do it full time i make between £50-£100 a day but when i have a bad day i lose a bit and get greedy your method looks a lot safe than mine many thanks for getting back to me

  12. colin says:

    Typically £60. Happilly never had a losing day as so far have been fortunte enough to have losing trades early on and have simply gone on with more trades to recover.I have learned to take the small l,oss – basically jf the trade starts to go the wring way I accept the same loss as I was happy to win. This essentially means the loss is only a dent not a disaster and can uusually bu made up on the next trade

    Early days I let them run and was often on 4 going out to 6 and that hurt – so now just take my medicine.
    Being of a fragile disposition sa far as losing money is concerned, if I am even or ahead at that time I usually give up on the day!
    I am not a natural gambler but my caution has got me back from an almost wiped out bank following various tipsters high volume laying strategies. But no more!.
    (Note for Matt B – this is nothing to do withe seperate thing you know about I do myself which works but doent satisfy my greed!)

    Because I only aim for a little, I can only lose a little
    I ill not use BOTS as want to be in control so do need the time to be at the machine.
    For example today, was only able to do the one at 5 .30p[.m and got into it too late .
    As it was only a 5 horser with Dettori on the odds on with next horse at 5 plus, thought I would do it. Managed to trade out at the odds I backed so no win no loss – so a good enough day!

    Had I got on mid morning I would have made a little.

    I would be happy with your return and indeed am, as it is my figure!
    I have slowly built up to this and am now on £100 stakes.
    My next step will be £150 and if the success continues will keep the increments going until cant get the money on.

    If you wish to swop strategies and monitor results am happy to do so as long as Matt is happy for us to do so. I dont know whether there is a p.m. facility here?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Colin

      If Mathew is happy to (Mathew, please confirm), I’ll send you both an email and you can push on from there.

      Thanks for the comments, which are most instructive.

      Matt

  13. mathew says:

    Sorry late getting back to you boys only just reading this yes i would def be up for that thanks matt

  14. David says:

    Hi Matt,

    May i just take the opportunity to say thanks for this great site, i was and partly still am what you would call a mug punter, but on the upside i found this site a short while ago and have been reading some of the fantastic info, and am reviewing my betting techniques at present. This being said, Colin without being too cheeky i was wondering if you would be kind enough to take my email also, and if you have a few minutes spare, I would very much like to discuss your trading methods further. Thanks again guys for the very interesting reading, hope to hear from you soon.

    Regards
    David

Comments are closed.