A long post today, dear reader, and a heck of a lot to get through...
But before I do, I just want to quickly mention about Horse Profiles and a strange anomaly where people are being sent to a French PayPal page! This is in fact perfectly natural, because David - the author - lives in France. So, if you went there trying to grab a copy and got put off by that, here's what to do:
2. Click the 'Join Now' button on the right hand side (it is a little confusing)
3. Fill out your membership details, including your chosen username and password
4. At the French PayPal screen:
- if you have a PayPal account enter your email and password on the right side
- if you don't have a PayPal account, find the blue word 'continuer' and click it, then change the dropdown box 'Pays' to 'Royaume-Uni' (which, lest you didn't know, changes country to United Kingdom).
Then everything comes up English. Easy as that! 😉
OK, down to Breeders business...
Now I know that for many the Breeders Cup is not something you can readily get excited about. But let me tell you, the Euros had a field day last year, and they're well placed again this time. It's live on ATR, so if you have a digibox I think you can watch it. Otherwise, you can watch online through their website at www.attheraces.com - look out for me in the crowd!
Right, here we go:
8.35 Breeders Cup Marathon
A new race, inaugurated last year, and won by Raif Beckett's Muhannak. Last season, it was a mile and a half; this year it's a mile and three quarters on the Pro-Ride (synthetic) track, which can only help the Euro's more as the Yank horses don't generally stay well.
Black Astor - no synthetic experience, doubtful stayer, looked to bounce last time off a previous speed best
Muhannak - winner last year over 1m4f, 12-5-1-2 (runs, wins, 2nd, 3rd) record on synthetics, out of sorts, superfecta play
Nite Light - East Coaster, trip / track should suit, 1 from 1 on synthetic, interesting
Cloudy's Knight - turf raced only, no Grade 1 win for two years, doesn't look good enough
Father Time - Won on all weather at Great Leighs (15 runners), 4th in the St Leger (poor ride), better class than US, six races this term, Eddie Ahern jocks off 'Frank' Spencer
Mastery - St Leger winner, top stable, acted fine round Kempton (missed start, short trip, poor ride), Frankie on board (by far the best Euro rider in US), stable flying, the one to beat, though arguably a little one paced
Sir Dave - Doubtful stayer, doubtful surface, doubtful ability, no chance!
Eldaafer - East Coaster (mostly struggle in Southern California (SoCal)), needs a dirt surface, ran a stinker last time
Man Of Iron - 2 Dundalk wins amount to little, doubtful stayer (by Giant's Causeway), eight runs this term already, probably over the top, overlooked
Gangbuster - Tough, 1m5f synthetic winner, best of the Americans?
Next Best: Father Time
Exacta: 6 x 5 (reverse) - 2 bets
Trifecta: 6 x 5 with 2, 3, 10 (6 bets)
Superfecta: 6 x 5 with 2, 3, 10 with 2, 3, 10 (12 bets)
9.08 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Another race run for the first time last year, and one in which O'Brien's Heart Shaped just missed out. Although it's obviously very early days, positive profiles for the race seem to include:
- Group or Graded turf form
- SoCal horses (always favoured when the racing is on the West Coast)
- Distance winner
- Sharp race last time (won or close up)
- Roughly three weeks since last run
Potosina - East Coaster, turf distance win, sharp race last time, big step up in class
Elusive Galaxy - ex-Irish, well beaten by Lillie Langtry, stamina to prove, regressive?
Smart Seattle - East Coaster, improved pace presser, distance form
Rose Catherine - East Coaster, BIG improvement for turf last time, sprint pedigree and 6f form only, front runner, there to be shot at in the straight
La Nez - SoCal, no turf form, improved stepped up to 7f, pace stalker, Graded form
Jungle Tale - Canadian, runs from off the pace, mountain to climb
House of Grace - East Coaster, turf distance win, sharp run last time, 3 week layoff, contender
Lillie Langtry - Euro, best turf form, raced up to 7f (staying on last time), off track five weeks
Hatheer - East Coaster, regressed for step up in trip, held by others
Tapitsfly - East Coaster, best run was at this distance on turf, front runner, interesting if sitting in behind speedball Rose C
Junia Tepzia - German trained Italian winner, ridden by Irishman in the States who rides in UK(!), unextended to date, races near the pace, could be anything as they say
Lisa's Kitten - East Coaster, turf distance win, steady speed ratings, honest, could make the superfecta?
Dad's Crazy - East Coaster, makes late headway, plenty to find, tough draw
In The Slips - ex-Paul Cole, no better than nursery winner in UK, stays, underneath in exotics
Winner: Lillie Langtry
Next Best: La Nez
Exacta: 5,8 over 5,7,8,11 (6 bets)
Trifecta: 8 over 5,11 over 5,7,10,11,12,14 (10 bets)
Superfecta: 8 over 5,11 over 5,7,10,11,12,14 over ALL (106 bets at $0.10)
9.45 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies
At last a race with some history to go on. Positives as follows:
- Graded winner (22 of 25 previous winners)
- Sharp race last time (24 of 25 winners)
- Improved speed rating for step up in trip
- Won or ran sharp race in key prep (Frizette, Oak Leaf, Alcibiades)
- Gained ground from half way in one of the key preps
Zilva - East Coaster, no Graded win, sharp last time, improved for step up in trip
Ms Vananzza - No Graded win, Delaware form only, plenty to find
Blind Luck - Won G1 Oak Leaf over CD, gained ground, improved speed for longer trip, the one to beat
Beautician - East Coaster, regressed for step up in trip, no Graded win, doesn't look good enough
Bickersons - Oak Tree placed, no Graded win
Connie and Michael - One BIG run in maiden special weight, led throughout, recent work moderate, a lot to prove
Devil May Care - Won G1 Frizette, sharp race last time, improved for trip, gained ground, contender
She Be Wild - Won Grade 3, 2nd G1 (key prep), Chicago shipper
Champagne D'Oro - No graded win, no chance
Negligee - Won G1 Alcibiades (key prep), improved for trip, gained ground, could be tough to beat
Always A Princess - Front runner, may struggle to get lead from wide draw, spent turning in, G1 placed
Biofuel - Won G3, Woodbine specialist, big late finisher, very interesting at a price
Winner: Blind Luck
Next Best: Biofuel (e/w)
Exacta: 3 x 7 x 8 x 10 x 12 - 20 bets
Trifecta: 3,10,12 over 3,10,12 over 3,7,8,10,12 (18 bets)
Superfecta: 3,12 over 3,10,12 over 3,7,8,10,12 over ALL (108 bets at $0.10)
10.23 Breeders Cup Fillies and Mares' Turf
Not the powerhouse Euro race I hope it might be, with ex-Euros a very interesting angle here. Positives are:
- Group or Grade 1 win
- Big speed figure (105+ on Beyer, 119+ Racing Post Rating)
- US horses won last time out
- Euros won or placed last time out
- 4 to 7 runs this season
Visit - 2nd in G1 last time, won G3 last season, no win beyond 7f, weak speed figures, not good enough
Forever Together - winner last year, won G1, very late finisher (lay then back in running?), five runs, contender
Rutherienne - 5 runs, no G1 win since 2007, overlooked
Magical Fantasy - ex-UK (no form to speak of there), won three G1's in a row, 6 runs, late rallier, strong last quarter sectionals
Pure Clan - 4 runs, won G1 last time, East Coaster may not be good enough
Midday - 6 runs, placed last time, raced almost exclusively against the girls, place banker but likely find one too good again?
Dynaforce - 4 runs, won G1 only 6th last time, pace presser, likely to be swamped in the straight
Maram - Juvenile Fillies Turf winner last season, no G1 form this term, slow (or will she rise again at her favoured track?)
Winner: Magical Fantasy
Next Best: Midday
Exacta: 6 x 5 x 4 x 2 - 12 bets
11.02 Breeders Cup Fillies and Mares' Sprint (7 furlongs)
Two previous races to go on, and a few interesting looking positive profiles emerging:
- Sharp race last time (always important at BC)
- 7f winner
- extended (45 days+) layoff
- won at multiple tracks this season
- Grade 1 winner
Free Flying Soul - 7-3-1-1 synthetic record, 6.5f winner, SoCal, 28 days off, no G1 win
Sara Louise - Godolphin East Coaster, won 7f, no G1 win, closer, 40 days off, possible for exotics
Game Face - G1 winner, 7f winner, won several on the road, races handy, 55 days off, a lot to like bar running style
Only Green - Frenchie, won Listed last time, 7f winner, 22 days off, only here to keep Goldikova company?
Silver Swallow - SoCal, 2nd in G2, 7f winner, closer, 100 days off, superfecta bomber?
Evita Argentina - SoCal, 7f winner, 2 x G2 win, closer, poor last run, 63 days off, trifecta possible
Informed Decision - excellent traveller, 7f winner, 2 x G1 wins, flexible regarding run style, 27 days off, 6 from 6 on synthetic surfaces, best bet of the day?
Seventh Street - East Coaster, G1 win, been running over a mile, front runner, pacemaker for Sara?
Ventura - SoCal, G1 win, won this last year, closer, 47 days off, second today?
Matt's Verdict (Possible BIG exotics race)
Winner: Informed Decision (nap)
Next Best: Ventura
Exacta: 7,9 over 3,5,6,7,9 (8 bets)
Trifecta: 7,9 over 3,5,6,7,9 over 2,3,5-9 (56 bets)
Superfecta: 7,9 over 3,5,6,7,9 over 3,5,6,7,9 over 2,3,5-9 (240 bets at $0.10)
11.45 Breeders Cup Ladies' Classic (formerly Distaff) (1m1f)
The big race for the ladies. A bit of a B race to be honest, with the absence of the two clear best US mares, Zenyatta (runs in the Classic) and Rachel Alexander (swerves the Pro-Ride surface). Looks a weak renewal, so an upset must be a possibility. Not much of a betting heat, but let's view the profiles anyway:
- 6 to 8 runs this term
- sharp race last time
- 28 days or less since last run
- placed at the distance
- G1 won or placed
- 105+ Beyer (119+ RPR)
Careless Jewel - East Coaster, pacey, bullet workouts, 6 runs, 34 days off
Life Is Sweet - SoCal, 7 runs, sharp race last time, 27 days off, G1 winner, distance winner, contender
Mushka - G1 placed, 9 runs, sharp last time, 26 days off, surprise package?
Lethal Heat - 7 runs, SoCal, sharp last time, G1 / distance placed, 27 days off
Proviso - ex-Euro, G1 distance winner, 6 runs, 26 days off, not quick enough?
Cocoa Beach - Godolphin, 4 runs, sharp last time, placed G1 / distance, 27 days off
Music Note - East Coaster, 3 runs, G1 / distance winner, sharp last time, 34 days off
Rainbow View - rare Brit raider in this race, 7 runs, no distance win, sharp last time, G1 winner, 20 days off, challenge
Winner: Music Note
Next Best: Rainbow View
Exacta: 8-9 - 1 bet
So there you have it. That's pretty much how I'll be wagering (as well as the obligatory rolling Pick 3's - pick three winners in a row: in my opinion, the bet that would DOUBLE the Tote's revenues if introduced in this country).
The real juice is still to come on Saturday, and - like Arnie, governor of this fine State, I'll be back with that preview tomorrow.
Hasta la vista, Breeders!