Breeders’ Cup 2018: Saturday Race Trends

After Future Stars Friday it is the turn of the seniors on Saturday, with nine Breeders' Cup races culminating in the $6,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic.

Below are some race trends which may help separate those with better chances than their current odds imply...

4.00pm GMT Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

Eleven renewals to date and some strong patterns emerging.

  • Age: 4-6; 5-4; 6-1 (3yo's 0 from 30 to date, incl 11/10 fav in ’17, unplaced; last 10 winners all 4 or 5 yo)
  • 10/11 finished in the top 3, or within 3L of the winner, last time (not ’17 winner)
  • 8/11 won at 7f; 4/11 2+ wins at 7f
  • 9/11 won or were 2nd in a G1 (2017 winner 2nd 7f G1 2 years earlier!)
  • TCA at Keeneland is a key prep (albeit over 6f) – Golden Mischief/Chalon/Vertical Oak closer 1-2-3 in '18
  • PID Masters also key race – Hotshot Anna won by 4 ½ lengths this year
  • Surface switch (synth or turf to dirt) : 7/11 winners
  • Fav 3/11, 2nd fav 2/11, 3rd fav 0/11. 6/11 4th or lower in the betting

4.38pm GMT Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

A race that feels like it should have a greater European presence, it has been largely overlooked by the raiders thus far.

  • 8/10 were already distance winners (check for specific 5½f distance form)
  • Age 3-1; 4-4; 5-3; 6-1; 8-1 (all largely in line with representation)
  • 8/10 winners were top 3 or within 3L of the winner last time out (not ’17 winner)
  • 8/10 had 99+ Beyer; 10/10 96+ Beyer
  • 9/10 had 4+ starts in year
  • 9/10 had a 28+ day layoff (’17 winner off for 147 days!)
  • 10/10 placed in Graded Stakes (6/10 WON Graded Stakes)
  • Europeans 0 from 9 so far (small sample, can’t be dogmatic)
  • Favourite is 4/10

5.16pm GMT Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

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The twelfth running of a race which has somewhat diluted the quality of the Sprint and the Classic, being as it an intermediate distance. Nevertheless, it looks a strong field this time and the trends are firming up:

  • 10/11 ran in a Grade 1 or 2 last time out (’17 winner 2nd in G3 LTO)
  • All 11 notched at least one 100+ Beyer in their last two races
  • 8/11 had 5+ runs in the year, 7/11 had 6+ runs in year (’17 winner: 9 runs)
  • Seasonal run breakdown: 3-2/4-1/5-1/6-2/8-2/9-2/10-1
  • Layoff: 10/11 27-42 days
  • 7/11 'turned back' in distance (2/4 exceptions were Goldencents) [may not favour ‘turn back’ around a one turn mile such as CD]
  • Top 3 favourites: Fav 2/11; 2nd fav 2/11; 3rd fav 1/11 [6/11 outside top 3 in betting]
  • Age 3-3/4-6/5-1/6-1 = 9/11 3 or 4yo (8/11 4yo+)
  • 10/11 had won a Graded Stakes

6.04pm GMT Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

This will be the 20th edition of the Filly and Mare Turf, a race where the distance has flexed to suit the venue. Here at Churchill Downs it is run over 1m3f.

  • US 11 Europe 8
  • 8/8 US winners 1st/2nd LTO; 2/3 ex-Euro imports 1st LTO; 1/8 Euro 1st LTO!
  • Layoff: US/import 10/11 35 days or less; Euro, anything goes!
  • Age: 3: 5 (all Euro, including 2016 & 2017 winners); 4: 8; 5: 4; 6+: 1
  • US have won 5 of last 8 and 7 of last 11
  • 17/19 had 4-7 runs during the season (other 2 had 3 starts, incl 2014 winner)
  • 8 of 11 US winners had a race at Keeneland that season
  • US 3 Euro 1 at CD. Euro at least 2nd in 3 of 4, at least 3rd in all four

6.46pm GMT Breeders' Cup Sprint

One of the original Cup races, there are 34 previous versions from which to elicit patterns and profiles. Here are some key Sprint pointers:

  • Since 2007, the BC Sprint winners came into the race with a combined 68/132 lifetime win record (52%). ’17 winner Roy H ‘only’ 5/16
  • Last 24 winners had at least 50% 1-2 strike rate at 6f
  • 32/34 won a G1-3 that season
  • 1+ 6f wins AND ran sharp 7f last 12 months a solid recent angle
  • 19 of the last 25 had 2+ 6f wins that season
  • 12 of the last 20 winners were 50%+ lifetime winners
  • 27/34 had 5+ seasonal races (5/7 exceptions were trained by Bob Baffert), but 11 of last 14 had 5 or fewer seasonal starts
  • 18 of last 24 winners showed a bullet workout (not ’17 winner, Roy H)
  • Highest average exacta payoff of ALL BC races
  • Highest average win payoff of ALL BC races
  • Bob Baffert is the King of the Layoff/lightly raced runner

7.36pm GMT Breeders' Cup Mile

Another of the original cluster of Breeders' Cup races, this has been a shocker for Britain and Ireland. Maybe this will be our year...

  • The last 16 winners had 4-6 seasonal starts
  • 15/16 winners since 2002 had 2+ mile turf wins (exception, Karakontie 2014)
  • Repeat winners common (Miesque, Lure, Da Hoss, Goldikova, Wise Dan)
  • 15 of the last 22 were US winners; other 7 all French-trained (UK/Ire 0 for 62 since 1995)
  • Only Goldikova (x3) and Karakontie have stemmed US dominance since 2004
  • 7/9 3yo winners were Euros (4 fillies); 11/12 5+yo winners were US (exc Goldi #3)
  • Euro G1 win important, US any Graded win
  • 22 of the last 24 ran 123 last time, or finished within 4L of the winner
  • Career record at 1m of BC Mile winners since 2002: Runs 130, 1st 75 (58%), 2nd 29 (22%)
  • Thus, the last 15 BC Mile winners had a collective 80% 1-2 record at the distance
  • No front runner has been 1st or 2nd since 2000

8.16pm GMT Breeders' Cup Distaff

At one point called 'The Ladies' Classic', the Distaff has mercifully reverted to its initial nomenclature. This will be the 35th renewal:

  • 27/34 won by 3 or 4yo's (17 straight prior to Beholder ’16 and Forever Unbridled ‘17)
  • 17/34 won by 4yo's (including 10 of the last 16)
  • 33/34 finished top 3 or within 4L of winner last time out
  • 20 of the last 27 winners ran 6-8 times in the year (’16 winner, 5 times; ’17 winner twice)
  • 24/30 1m1f Distaff winners had won at the distance already
  • Layoff: 28/34 35 days or less ago (all since 1998, except 3 of last 4 winners)
  • 23/30 1m1f Distaff winners had won a Grade 1
  • The favourite is 14/34 (41% SR)
  • 32/34 had recorded a Beyer of 100+
  • Beldame Stakes was responsible for 4/8 CD Distaff winners

8.56pm GMT Breeders' Cup Turf

A very good event for 'Team Europe' when the Breeders' Cup has been hosted at Churchill Downs, and with arguably our deepest party ever in the race it is extremely difficult to see a home win. The challenge then is which of the raiders will claim the spoils...?

  • 23/24 winners to have raced at the distance had been at least 2nd (Found in 2015 the exception)
  • Layoff: US 35 days or less; Euro any
  • 34/34 aged 3-5yo; 6yo+ 0/50 (inc 2016 fav, Flintshire)
  • Euro 3yo's 7; US 3yo's 2 (last one in 1989)
  • 26/34 won G1 that season (7/8 exceptions were Euro, & averaged 13/1)
  • 11/21 Euro winners last ran in the Arc (not often the 'obvious' one)
  • Arc winners are 0/6 in same season (including Golden Horn, odds on in 2015)
  • 8 US winners ran in Joe Hirsch, six of them winning that key prep
  • 22/24 since '94 had 3-8 starts - 3-4; 4 or 5-6; 6 to 8-12 (5 of last 7 had 6-8 seasonal runs)
  • Every winner to have had at least two 1m4f runs won or was 100% ITM at the distance
  • Europe 6 (including last 4) US 2 at CD

9.44pm Breeders' Cup Classic

The showpiece event, and we're represented here by Mendelssohn, Roaring Lion and Thunder Snow, against what looks a competitive field which maybe lacks a superstar.

  • All of the last 17 Classic winners had 3-8 runs that season
  • 33/34 ran 1-2-3 LTO (20 x 1st; 8 x 2nd; 5 x 3rd)
  • 30/34 won a G1 that season
  • 34/34 aged 3-5 (6yo+ 0/31) – 3yo 12 wins; 4yo 14 wins; 5yo 8 wins.
  • 20 of last 29 posted stamina (6f+) workout since last run
  • 10/11 40+ day layoffs posted Bullet AND/OR Stamina works since last run
  • 9/12 3yo winners ran in at least one Triple Crown race (1 exception was a Euro, 1 was 2016 winner, Arrogate)
  • 20 of the last 23 posted 100+ Beyer last time but below previous best (Arrogate massive 122 LTO in 2016, Gun Runner 115 LTO in 2017)
  • Where no distance form, check breeding for stamina credentials
  • 8/8 CD Classic winners had either won ‘on the road’ (7) or had experience of CD (4)
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2 replies
  1. Avatar
    Adam Russell says:

    Matt … does this mean the Compendium is only available to your site subscribers?

    • Avatar
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Yes, Adam. But you can subscribe for as little as £6 for two days. So, while the Compendium costs £15 or thereabouts most years, it’s essentially available at a discount… if you see what I mean.

      Matt

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