Breeders' Cup Trends for Keeneland 2022

This will be the 39th renewal of the great transatlantic horseracing shemozzle that is the Breeders' Cup and, while some races are a lot newer than that, most have a historical profile worth noting. What follows are some observations based on what we've seen previously in the hope that it might help to predict what will happen in Keeneland on the first weekend in November.

Click on any highlighted race title below to move straight to that event.

 

Contents

FRIDAY 2

7.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (5f, Turf) 2

Key Trends (4 BC renewals to date) 2

7.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m½f, Dirt) 2

Key Trends (38 renewals to date) 2

8.20pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m, Turf) 3

Key Trends (14 renewals to date) 3

9.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1m ½f, Dirt) 3

Key Trends (38 renewals so far) 3

9.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1m, Turf) 3

Key Trends (15 renewals to date) 3

SATURDAY

3.50pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7f, Dirt) 4

Key Trends (15 renewals so far) 4

4.29pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (5f, Turf) 4

Key Trends (14 renewals so far) 4

5.10pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (1m, Dirt) 5

Key Trends (15 renewals to date) 5

5.50pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (1m3f, Turf) 5

Key Trends (23 renewals to date) 5

6.30pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Sprint (6f, Dirt) 5

Key Trends (38 renewals to date) 5

7.10pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Mile (1m, Turf) 6

Key Trends (38 renewals to date) 6

7.55pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Distaff (1m1f, Dirt) 6

Key Trends (38 renewals to date) 6

8.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Turf (1m4f, Turf) 6

Key Trends (38 renewals to date) 6

9.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Classic (1m2f, Dirt) 7

Key Trends (38 renewals so far) 7

FRIDAY

7.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (5f, Turf)

Key Trends (4 BC renewals to date)

A newish race, which was run for the first time on the undercard in 2017, and now has full Breeders’ Cup status. Naturally, at this stage trends are thin, so caution is strongly advised.

• 2017 (undercard) at Del Mar: Euro 1234
• 2018 US 123 (1st/2nd from wire)
• 2019 US 1234 (1st/2nd from wire), 2020 US 12 Euro 34 (1st from wire), 2021 US 1345 (1st from wire)
• Wes Ward won last three, overall form: 200 in 2018; 149 in 2019; 1500 in 2020; 135 in 2021
• First 2 winners unbeaten (1 & 2 prior starts), 2020 winner won LTO/form 221, 2021 winner won LTO/form 2121
• All 4 winners led all the way
• Winners LTO: '18 1st Listed; '19 1st G3; '20 1st Listed; '21 1st Listed
• Best two Euros: '18 3rd/4th; '19 5th/7th; '20 3rd/4th; '21 2nd/6th

 

7.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m½f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals to date)

• 17 of the last 20 had 3-5 career starts (exceptions, 2 starts, ’07, ’17 & '19)
• Last 20, career runs: 2-3/3-8/4-6/5+-3
• Layoff: 32/38 were running within 30 days (‘16 winner 35 days off, '21 winner 33 days off); (35/38 5 weeks off or less)
• 31/38 (82%) had a Grade 1, 2 or 3 win, from c.60% of the runners. 3/7 non-qualifiers placed in Frizette (incl. ’17 winner)
• 21/27 improved Beyer when racing 7f+ for 1st time (excludes pre-Beyer BC's and winners with no 7f+ form)
• 90+ Beyer = very strong, 80+ 1 or 2 starts = strong
• 35/38 were top 4 or less than 4L behind the winner last time out
• Favourite is 19/38 (50%)
• "Look beyond the obvious when trials were slow", favour lightly raced improver
• 23/38 (61%) had NOT won at the distance
• Baffert not won since 2007

 

8.20pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m, Turf)

Key Trends (14 renewals to date)

• US 12 Euro 2
• 9/12 US winners ran in Miss Grillo or Natalma, ’17/'20 winners exited Jessamine, '19 winner minor Stakes
• 13/14 finished top 3 or within 1.5L of the winner last time out (exception ran in Miss Grillo)
• 13/14 won at 1m+ (exception, Flotilla, 1.5L behind in Arc weekend G1)
• 14/14 finished top 3, or within 1.5L of the winner, in a Stakes race
• Frontrunners 3, Prominent 6, Late runners 5
• Layoff: 3wks-2 / 4wks-3 / 5wks-5 / 6wks-1 / 7wks-3 ('21 winner off 47 days)
• Prior Runs: US winners 2-8; 3-2; 4-1; 5-0; 6-1 / Euro winners 4-1; 5-1
• 80+ Beyer – 9/12 recorded 81+ (2 others had only 2 starts) / Euro RPR's 114, 106
• 2 Euro winners ran in G1 races LTO (1st, 1.5L 4th) - Euro^ = G1 LTO
• Chad Brown has trained 5 JFT winners (4 in California), last one was 2018. 3rd at 6/1 in 2021
• 4 of Chad's 5 won the Ms Grillo (2nd in '22 MsG with Free Look)
• All US exacta: 5/14 (US 1-3 in '21)

 

9.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1m ½f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals so far)

• 36/38 ran 123 or within 4L of the winner last time out
• Prior runs of US winners since 2000: 2-7 (incl 5 in last 9 years)/ 3-5 / 4-6
• Look for solid workouts, especially off a longer (35+ day) layoff
• Uncoupled entries won in 2010, 2013, 2015, 2021
• 19 of the last 29 winners posted a new Beyer top LTO
• 18 of last 26 winners improved their Beyer racing at 7f+ for the first time
• Y/N - Previous runs, not what is declared for BC
• (s) Synthetic track
• Baffert won 5 times, Pletcher & O'Neill twice each

 

9.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1m, Turf)

Key Trends (15 renewals to date)

• Euro 9 US 6 (APO'B 1st Kee 2015, 2nd Kee 2020)
• 2-6 runs (14/15 had 2 to 5 runs - Prior Starts: 2-2/3-3/4-6/5-3/6-1)
• 5/6 US won at 1m+, only 3/9 Euro won at 1m
• 1st-3rd Fav combined only 8 from 45 - 47% winners outside top 3 in betting
• 15/15 Top 3 LTO or within 2L of winner (ran sharp)
• 0 Front Runner winners (8 CLOSERS, 6 PROMINENT, 1 MIDFIELD)
• 7 of the 9 Euro winners plus Hootenanny recorded RPR of 110+; exceptions 108 LTO, 105 LTO
• 9/9 Euro winners placed in G1/2 LTO, or won lesser stakes; 3 of last 6 Euro winners placed in Dewhurst LTO ('18, '21 winners won G3 LTO)
• 6/6 US winners had won a Stakes and were placed 123 in all Stakes runs
• Euro winners 20-43 days absent (5/8 20 or 21 days); US 20, 34, 34, 35, 49, 68 days absent
• Pilgrim Stakes considered a key prep: got 1st win in ’16, 2nd win in '19, 3rd win in '20
• APOB 4, C Appleby 4, Gosden 3

 

SATURDAY
3.50pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7f, Dirt)

Key Trends (15 renewals so far)

• Winner's age: 644544554453335
• 3yo's 3 from 40 to date; '18 winner 3yo, 20/1; '19 1st/2nd only two 3yo's in the field; '20 winner Gamine 3yo
• 3yo's won 0 of first 11, and now won 3 of last 4 (sole 3yo well beaten in '21)
• 14/15 finished in the top 3, or within 3L of the winner, last time (not ’17 winner)
• 12/15 won at 7f; 6/15 2+ wins at 7f
• 11/15 won or were 2nd in a G1 ('17 winner 2nd 7f G1 2 years ago, '18 winner 1st G2 LTO only 7f start, '21 winner won G1 a year ago)
• TCA at Keeneland is a key prep (albeit over 6f) –
• PID Masters (6 1/2f) also key race – not run in '20 or '21 but back in '22, won by Artie's Princess
• Surface switch (synth or turf to dirt): 7/15 winners; '18 winner 1stx2 on synths prior to final prep on dirt
• Fav 5/15, 2nd fav 2/15, 3rd fav 1/15 ('21 winner). 7/15 4th or lower in the betting

 

4.29pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (5f, Turf)

Key Trends (14 renewals so far)

• 9/14 were distance winners (more material when run at 5½f or 6½f, less so at 5f)
• Age 3-2; 4-5; 5-3; 6-3; 8-1 (all largely in line with representation)
• 12/14 winners were top 3 or within 3L of the winner last time out (not ’17 winner)
• 11/14 had 99+ Beyer or 115+ RPR; 14/14 96+ Beyer or 115+ RPR ('21 winner 96 Beyer)
• 12/14 had 4+ starts in year ('21 winner 3 starts)
• 13/14 had a 28+ day layoff
• 14/14 placed in Graded Stakes (10/14 WON Graded Stakes)
• Europeans 1 from 15 so far (Glass Slippers in 2020, 4th-5th-8th in 2021)
• Favourite is 5/14
• Peter Miller won the three renewals between 2017 and 2019 (including 2x exacta!)
• Wesley Ward first BC Turf Sprint win in 2021, from 13 runners to date

 

5.10pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (1m, Dirt)

Key Trends (15 renewals to date)

• 12/15 ran in a Grade 1 or 2 last time out (but NOT '19 or '20 winners)
• 15/15 notched at least one 100+ Beyer in their last two races
• 9/15 had 5+ runs in the year, 8/14 had 6+ runs in year (not strong trend)
• Seasonal run breakdown: 2-1/3-2/4-3/5-1/6-2/7-1/8-2/9-2/10-1
• # of runs from 2012: 5-8-4-3-3-9-4-7-2-4
• Layoff: 12/15 27-42 days ('18 winner 70 days, '19 winner 20 days)
• 8/15 'turned back' in distance (2/4 exceptions were Goldencents)
• Top 3 favourites: Fav 4/15; 2nd fav 3/15; 3rd fav 1/15 [7/15 outside top 3 in betting]
• Age 3-5/4-8/5-1/6-1 = 13/15 aged 3 or 4yo
• 14/15 had won a Graded Stakes in career
• 10/15 had won at a mile

 

5.50pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (1m3f, Turf)

Key Trends (23 renewals to date)

• US/import 12, Europe 10, Japan 1 (2021)
• 8/8 US winners 1st/2nd LTO; 3/4 ex-Euro imports 1st LTO; 1/10 Euro 1st LTO!
• Layoff: US/import 10/12 35 days or less; Euro, anything goes!; Japan winner off 65 days
• Age: 3-6 (all Euro, including 16, 17 & 19 winners); 4-10; 5-5 (inc '21 Japanese winner); 6 or more-1
• Since 2007, Euro 3yo: 4, US: 8, Euro 4yo+: 2, Japan 1 (2021)
• 21/23 - 4-7 runs this season (other 2 had 3 starts)
• 9 of 12 US winners had a race at Keeneland that season
• Since 2012, Chad Brown 4, Europe 5 (all 11/1 or shorter, 2nd with the fav in 2020 from 4 starters), Japan 1
• 4 wins for Chad Brown, 3 for Sir Michael Stoute

 

6.30pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Sprint (6f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals to date)

• 2007+, the BC Sprint winners came into the race with a combined 98/195 lifetime win record (50%)
• Last 30 winners had at least 50% 1-2 strike rate at 6f
• 35/38 won a G1-3 that season ('21 winner closing neck 2nd in G2 LTO)
• 1+ 6f wins AND ran sharp 7f last 12 months a solid recent angle
• 23 of the last 29 had 2+ 6f wins that season
• 14 of the last 24 winners were 50%+ lifetime winners
• 14 of last 18 winners had 6 or fewer seasonal starts ('21 winner had 8 prior starts in first racing season)
• 21 of last 28 winners showed a bullet workout
• 28 of last 30 winners notched at least 103 Beyer in same season ('21 winner only 102)
• Bob Baffert 5 wins, Peter Miller 2

 

7.10pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Mile (1m, Turf)

Key Trends (38 renewals to date)

• 19 of last 20 winners had 4-6 seasonal starts
• 16/20 winners since 2002 had 2+ mile turf wins (exceptions all Euros)
• Repeat winners common (Miesque, Lure, Da Hoss, Goldikova, Wise Dan)
• 16 of the last 26 were US winners; 7 French-trained (UK/Ire 3 for 85 since 1995, after long blank, wins in '18, '20, '21)
• Only Goldikova (x3), Karakontie, Expert Eye, Order of Australia, Space Blues have stemmed US dominance since 2004
• 9/11 3yo winners were Euros (4 fillies); 12/14 5yo+ winners were US (exception Goldikova #3 & Space Blues)
• Euro G1 win important, US any Graded win (Expert Eye, Order of Australia no G1 win)
• 25 of the last 28 ran 123 last time, or finished within 4L of the winner (Order of Australia an exception)
• Career record at 1m of BC Mile winners since 2002: Runs 141, 1st 81 (57%), 2nd 30 (21%)
• Thus, the last 20 BC Mile winners had a collective 78% 1-2 record at the distance (Space Blues unraced at exactly a mile)
• Only 1 front runner has been 1st or 2nd since 2000 (Smooth Like Strait, 2nd in 2021)
• No trainer has won with more than two different horses

 

7.55pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Distaff (1m1f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals to date)

• 29/38 won by 3 or 4yo's ('19 winner 6yo, '20 winner 5yo though missed entire 4yo season, '21 winner 5yo!)
• 17/38 won by 4yo's (including 10 of the last 20)
• 37/38 finished top 3 or within 4L of winner last time out
• 23 of the last 31 winners ran 5-8 times in the year
• 28/34 1m1f Distaff winners had won at the distance already
• Layoff: 29/38 35 days or less ('20 winner off 64 days, '21 winner 86 days!)
• 26/34 1m1f Distaff winners had won a Grade 1 in same year
• The favourite is 16/38 (42% SR)
• 34/38 had recorded a Beyer of 100+ ('21 winner no Beyer, top RPR of just 99)

 

8.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Turf (1m4f, Turf)

Key Trends (38 renewals to date)

• 26/27 winners to have raced at the distance had been at least 2nd (Found in 2015 the exception)
• Layoff: US 35 days or less ('19 winner off 3 months); Euro any
• 38/38 aged 3-5yo; 6yo+ 0/59
• Euro 3yo's 8; US 3yo's 2 (last one in 1989)
• 29/38 won G1 that season (8/9 exceptions were Euro, & averaged 12.5/1). US *MUST* have won G1 same season
• 12/24 Euro winners last ran in the Arc (rarely the 'obvious' one, though Enable doubled up in '18)
• Arc winners are 1/7 in same season (Enable first horse to do the double)
• 8 US winners ran in Joe Hirsch, six of them winning that key prep (??? won 2022)
• 25/28 since '94 had 3-8 season starts - 3-5; 4 or 5-7; 6 to 8-13
• 6 of last 10 had 6-8 seasonal runs, though mares Enable won off just 2 runs in '18 & Tarnawa off 3 in '20
• Every winner to have had at least two 1m4f runs either won or was 100% ITM at the distance
• Europe 17 1/2 US 5 1/2 since 1999 (2xUS winners trained Graham Motion, Englishman)
• APO'B 6 wins (last won in '16), Sir Michael Stoute 4, Andre Fabre 3, Graham Motion, S bin Suroor, B Meehan, Bill Mott 2 each

 

9.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Classic (1m2f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals so far)

• All of the last 21 Classic winners had 3-8 runs that season
• 37/38 ran 1-2-3 LTO (23 x 1st; 9 x 2nd; 5 x 3rd)
• 34/38 won a G1 that season
• 38/38 aged 3-5 (6yo+ 0/33) – 3yo 12 wins; 4yo 15 wins; 5yo 10 wins
• 22 of last 33 posted stamina (6f+) workout since last run
• 10/11 40+ day layoffs posted Bullet AND/OR Stamina works since last run
• 10/13 3yo winners ran in at least one Triple Crown race (1 exception was a Euro)
• 22 of the last 26 posted 100+ Beyer last time but below previous best ('19 winner, 106, new top; '20 winner, 105, equalled top)
• Where no distance form, check breeding for stamina credentials
• Bob Baffert 4, Steve Asmussen 2, Bill Mott 2

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