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A dreadful evening all round at Worcester last night, I'm afraid, and that extended to the placepot picks. There's very little of appeal in a placepot context today, and it's Brighton by default more than anything else.
2.20 - Leg 1: We're limping in today, and that means banking on James Tate's once raced Tobougg Happy. He was second over this trip on debut, beaten far enough, but should come on a good bit for that and this is a step down in class. The second market choice, Hatti, has had three tries already, and hasn't shown much improvement.
Fine Art Fair might be capable of improving on a decent debut, in a much better race at Sandown, but it's just the one pick here.
A - 5 (Tobougg Happy)
2.50 - Leg 2: Shelley Birkett, Julia Feilden's daughter, rides Ridgeway Sapphire, and she's made a bit of a name for herself this term, with nine winners in the last three months. Ridgeway's sole win was here on very fast ground off a rating of 45, a pound lower than today. Definite place prospect. Do More Business is also reliable in this context, and might get a soft lead.
On B, I'll chance Just Isla, who steps back in trip and is much less exposed than most here. Copper Rag could improve a lot, and is worth a market check, but doesn't make the ticket.
A - 4 (Do More Business), 6 (Ridgeway Sapphire)
B - 10 (Just Isla)
3.20 - Leg 3: A quartet of nags to roll with in the third leg, with fancied Renoir's Lady and Koharu on A. The former is in form but might struggle to win off her current peg, while the latter has been given every chance by the handicapper after a couple of decent recent efforts.
On B, I'm going with legacy performers, Dvinsky and Rio Royale. Neither have shown much lately, but both are capable on a going day. In a bad race, one or both of them could make the frame. I'm playing for a good result here...!
A - 2 (Renoir's Lady), 5 (Koharu)
B - 6 (Rio Royale), 7 (Dvinsky)
3.50 - Leg 4: Funny race, this. The jolly is a Godolphin progressor, but is ridden by a chap having only his fourth public outing, Ahmad Al Subousi. I don't know anything about him, but I know that Brighton will be quirky enough for such an inexperienced jock. He has to be an A pick, simply because the horse won his maiden over course and distance, and so there are no fears about his ability on the track.
I'm doubling up on A, and including Brian Meehan's Elusive Band. This fellow takes a step down in class - he raced behind Frankel's half-brother, Morpheus, last time - and ought to appreciate it. It's a weak race, and first time in a handicap is a good angle for the yard.
A - 4 (Sadiq), 5 (Elusive Band)
4.20 - Leg 5: Just three runners, and Aqua Ardens is the most likely. But I'll take all three on A.
A - 1 (Hometown Glory), 2 (Lunar Deity), 3 (Aqua Ardens)
4.50 - Leg 6: I like the Racing Post's comment here: "The majority of these find winning difficult"!
There's a fair bit of pace on here, with the likes of Volcanic Dust, Slatey Hen, Spic 'N Span, and Megaleka all keen to go on. Consequently, it might pay to gamble on a pace collapse and a closer bagging the spoils. I'll take two from the top (of the pace), and two from the bottom.
My pace contenders are Slatey Hen (A), and Volcanic Dust (B); and my closers are Excellent Aim (A) and The Name Is Frank (B).
A - 1 (Slatey Hen), 2 (Excellent Aim)
B - 3 (Volcanic Dust), 4 (The Name Is Frank)
Just A's - 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 3 x 2 = 48 bets
All picks - 1 x 3 x 4 x 2 x 3 x 4 = 288 bets
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