We offer an extensive range of daily free horse racing tips, all of which can be found here.

2026 Irish Oaks Trends

Staged at the Curragh racecourse the Irish Oaks is a Group One race run over a distance of 1m4f and for 3 year-old fillies.

In recent years, horses that ran in the Epsom Oaks previously have gone well, with 11 of the last 23 Epsom winners having run in the English Oaks earlier that season. And seven doing the double in the last 23 years.

Including Minnie Hauk last season, who game Aidan O'Brien an 8th win in the race.

Plus, with 20 of the last 23 winners having finished first or second last time out this is another key trend to note.

Here at GEEGEEZ we are on hand with all the key recent stats ahead of the 2026 running - this year staged on Saturday 18th July 2026 - use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners.

Recent Irish Oaks Winners

2025 - MINNIE HAUK (2/11 fav)
2024 - YOU GOT TO ME (15/2)
2023 - SAVETHELASTDANCE (10/11 fav)
2022 - MAGICAL LAGOON (5/4 fav)
2021 – SNOWFALL (2/7 fav)
2020 - EVEN SO (10/1)
2019 - STAR CATCHER (7/2)
2018 - SEA OF CLASS (11/4)
2017 - ENABLE (2/5 fav)
2016 – SEVENTH HEAVEN (14/1)
2015 – COVERT LOVE (7/1)
2014 – BRACELET (10/1)
2013 – CHICQUITA (9/2)
2012 – GREAT HEAVENS (5/4 fav)
2011 – BLUE BUNTING (5/2)
2010 – SNOW FAIRY (7/2)
2009 – SARISKA (Evs fav)
2008 – MOONSTONE (2/1 fav)
2007 – PEEPING FAWN (3/1)
2006 – ALEXANDROVA (8/15 fav)
2005 – SHAWANDA (9/2)
2004 – OUIJA BOARD (4/7 fav)
2003 – VINTAGE TIPPLE (12/1)

Irish Oaks Betting Trends and Stats

21/23 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
20/23 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
19/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/23 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Had won between 1-2 times before
16/23 – Won last time out
16/23 – Placed favourites
16/23 – Won over 1m4f before
11/23 – Irish-trained winners
11/23 – Ran in the Epsom Oaks last time out
10/23 – Won by a UK-based trainer
10/23 – Winning favourites
8/23 – Winning distance, 3 lengths or more
8/23 – Had won a Group One before
8/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4 of the last 10) (8 in total)
7/23 – Won the Epsom Oaks last time out
3/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 5)
2/23 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 9)

Recent Irish and Epsom Oaks Winners 

  • 2025 - Minnie Hauk
  • 2021 – Snowfall
  • 2017 – Enable
  • 2010 – Snow Fairy
  • 2009 – Sariska
  • 2006 – Alexandrova
  • 2004 – Ouija Board

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2026 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day Three, Saturday 11th July

As we head into day three of the Newmarket July Festival this Saturday there is bundles more to look forward to with SIX more LIVE ITV races too.

The Group One July Cup (4:35) spearheads the afternoon's action at HQ and, as always, we've got all the ITV races covered with key trends to help you find the winners.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day Three, Saturday 11th July 2025

1:40 – Rossdales British EBF Maiden Stakes Cl3 (2yo) 7f

9/10 – Returned 17/2 or shorter
8/10 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4), Andrew Balding (2) or John Gosden (2)
8/10 – Drawn between 3-9
7/10 – Foaled in Feb or March
4/10 – Winning favourites
This race has been won by Distant Storm, Field Of Gold and Noble Truth since 2021
Constitution River 2nd in 2025

2:15 – Newmarket Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f

17/17 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Didn’t win last time out
16/17 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
14/17 - Had won over at least 7f before
12/17 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
11/17 – Rated between 82-93 (inc)
10/17 – Placed favourites
6/17 – Drawn in stalls 10, 11 or 13 (2 each)
5/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/17 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/17 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/17 – Winning favourites
Royal Velvet (4/1) won the race in 2025

2:52 - Newmarket Handicap (3yo) Cl2 1m ITV

22/24 – Had won over 7f or further previously
19/24 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
18/24 – Had 2 or more runs that season
14/24 – Unplaced in their last race
10/24 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
10/24 – Favourites unplaced
5/24 – Won their last race
5/24 – Winning Favourites
4/24 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4 of the last 8)
Charlie Appleby and William Buick have won 2 of the last 3
Godolphin has won 5 of the last 8
The Richard Hannon yard have won 3 of the last 13 runnings

3:25 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

23/24 – Won over 7f previously
22/24 – Raced 3 or more times that season
17/24 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
15/24 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/24 – Winners from stall 13 or higher
13/24 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
11/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
12/24 – Placed in their last race
10/24 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
9/24 – Horses from a double-figure stall that finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd
5/24 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/24 – Won by the Hannon yard (2 or last 6)
3/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey (3 of the last 15)
3/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 17)
11 of the last 15 winners came from double-figure draws
16 of the last 18 winners carried 9st or more
10 of the last 18 winners carried between 9st and 9st 3lbs
Aalto (15/2) won the race in 2024 & 2nd in 2025

4:00 - bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

23/24 – Won over at least 6f previously
22/24 – Placed in their last race
21/24 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
19/24 – Won their latest race
16/24 – Won by either a March or April foal
14/24 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
14/24 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
10/24 – Favourites unplaced
8/24 – Winning Favourites
5/24 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (4 of the last 16)
5/24 - Ridden by William Buick (5 of the last 8)
4/24 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/24 – Winners from stall 3
3/24 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 9)
2/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 13 runnings)
2/24 – Trained by Mick Channon
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 7 of the last 11 runnings
Last 4 winners all drawn stall 2
William Buick / Charlie Appleby have won 5 of the last 8

4:35 – Al Basti July Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners.....
2025 No Half Measures (66/1)
2024 Mill Stream (11/1)
2023 Shaquille (5/2 jfav)
2022 Alcohol Free (14/1)
2021 Starman (9/2)
2020 Oxted (12/1)
2019 Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018 U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017 Harry Angel (9/2)
2016 Limato (9/2 fav)
2015 Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014 Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013 Lethal Force (9/2)
2012 Mayson (20/1)
2011 Dream Ahead (7/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

23/24 – Aged 5 or younger
22/24 – Had won over 6f before
19/24 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
19/24 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
19/24 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
18/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
18/24 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
15/24 – Placed last time out
11/24 – Ran last time out in either the King Charles III Stakes or QEII Jubilee Stakes
11/24 – Unplaced favourites
9/24 – Won their previous race
6/24 – Winning favourites
4/24 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 8 winners)
4/24 – Filly winners
2/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of the last 8)
2/24 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/24 – French-trained winners
16 of the last 17 winners aged 3 or 4
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019) – joint winning most trainer with Vincent O’Brien and Charles Morton
Trainer Charlie Appleby has never won the race

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Sat TV Trends: Ascot & York (11th July 2026)

Plenty going on again this Saturday with a staggering ELEVEN LIVE ITV races to take in.

We’ve the final day of the Newmarket July Meeting (covered separately), with the Group One July Cup , plus the Group Two Superlative Stakes and the competitive Bunbury Cup Handicap.

Then at Ascot, we’ve two more LIVE races to enjoy from the Berkshire track that include the Group Two Summer Mile, while the ITV cameras are also at York to take in four races that include the competitive John Smith’s Cup Handicap.

As always, we’ve got all the races covered with key trends and stats – use these to find the best past profile of winning horses.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends

1:55 – Club 26 Heritage Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 5f ITV4

10/11 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
9/11 – Had won over 5f before
9/11 – Carried 8-10 or more
8/11 – Had won between 2-6 times
8/11 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
7/11 – Didn’t win last time out
7/11 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1
7/11 – Came from a double-figure stall
5/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/11 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3 winning favourites in the last 10
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

2:27 – Juddmonte Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV4

17/17 - Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had raced at Ascot before (4 won)
12/17 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
11/17 – Previous Group race winner
9/17 – Winning favourites (8 of the last 11 have won)
9/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/17 – Aged 4 years-old
8/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
7/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Had won a Group 1 before
11 of the last 15 winners were draw in stalls 5 or lower
Trainer William Haggas has won 2 of the last 10 runnings
Trainer Andrew Balding has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/2

York Horse Racing Trends

2:39 - John Smith’s Racing Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

14/14 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
13/14 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
13/14 - Won between 2-4 times before
12/14 - Carried 9st or more in weight
12/14 - Won over at least 1m before
11/14 - Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 - Drawn in stall 7 or lower
9/14 - Irish bred
9/14 - Finished 4th or better last time out
8/14 - Had run at the track before (York)
7/14 - Placed favourites
5/14 - Trained by David O’Meara
3/14 - Winning favourites
8 of the last 9 winners drawn 8 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runs is 13/2

3:12 - John Smith's City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f ITV4

15/15 – Won over 5f before
14/15 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Unplaced last time out
10/15 – Won at York before
10/15 – Rated between 101 and 111
7/15 – Had only won at Handicap class before
7/15 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
6/15 – Won by a neck or less
6/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
Last 8 winners aged between 3-5 years-old
Trainer Tim Easterby has won the race in 2019 & 2021
Washington Heights won the race in 2025
Starlust (13/8 fav) won the race in 2024
6 of the last 10 favourites (co and joint) have won
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

3:45 - John Smith's Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV4

22/24 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
22/24 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
20/24 – Aged 5 or younger
16/24 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
15/24 – Came from stall 9 or higher
15/24 – Carried 9-4 or less
14/24 – Aged 4 years-old
14/24 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
13/24 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
13/24 – Officially rated between 99-105
10/24 – Had run at York before
6/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/24 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
3/24 – Trained by William Haggas
3/24 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/24 - Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 7)
2/24 - Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 12)
Since 1960 just one winner older than 6
12 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or 5
9 of the last 12 winners carried 9st 3lbs or more
The average winning SP in the last 24 years is 11/1

4:55 - John Smith's Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

18/20 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
16/20 – Aged 5 or younger
14/20 – Didn’t win their previous race
14/20 – Placed favourites
10/20 – Aged 4 years-old
10/20 – Had run at York before
8/20 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/20 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
7/20 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

 

 

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2026 July Cup Trends

The July Cup is a Group One contest is run over 6f at Newmarket racecourse and is one of the highlights for the best sprinters all around the world each year.

Run on the final day of the three-day Newmarket July Meeting the race is worth £453,680 to the winner.

Here at GeeGeez, we take a look back at the recent winners and give you some key trends ahead of the 2026 renewal - on Saturday 11th July.

Did you know 23 of the last 24 July Cup winners were aged 5 or younger?

Recent July Cup Winners.....

2025 - No Half Measures (66/1)
2024 - Mill Stream (11/1)
2023 - Shaquille (5/2 jfav)
2022 - Alcohol Free (14/1)
2021 - Starman (9/2)
2020 - Oxted (12/1)
2019 - Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018 - U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017 - Harry Angel (9/2)
2016 - Limato (9/2 fav)
2015 - Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014 - Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013 - Lethal Force (9/2)
2012 - Mayson (20/1)
2011 - Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010 - Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009 - Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008 - Marchand d'Or (5/2 fav)
2007 - Sakhee's Secret (9/2)
2006 - Les Arcs (10/1)
2005 - Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004 - Frizzante (14/1)
2003 - Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002 - Continent (12/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

23/24 – Aged 5 or younger
22/24 – Had won over 6f before
19/24 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
19/24 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
19/24 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
18/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
18/24 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
15/24 – Placed last time out
11/24 – Ran last time out in either the King Charles III Stakes or QEII Jubilee Stakes
11/24 – Unplaced favourites
9/24 – Won their previous race
6/24 – Winning favourites
4/24 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 8 winners)
4/24 – Filly winners
2/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of the last 8)
2/24 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/24 – French-trained winners
16 of the last 17 winners aged 3 or 4
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019) – joint winning most trainer with Vincent O’Brien and Charles Morton
Trainer Charlie Appleby has never won the race

 

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2026 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day Two, Friday 10th July

As we head into day two of the 2026 Newmarket July Festival this Friday there is bundles more to look forward to with four more LIVE ITV races too.

The Group One Falmouth Stakes (3:35) spearheads the afternoon's action at HQ and, as always, we've got all the ITV races covered with key trends to help you find the winners.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day Two, Friday 10th July 2026

1.50 – Oddschecker Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV

17/19 – Had won between 1-2 times before
16/19 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
15/19 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
14/19 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
14/19 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
11/19 – Irish bred
8/19 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
8/19 – Trained by the Johnston yard (including 7 of last 13 runnings)
8/19 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Ridden by William Buick (3 of the last 11)
3/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding
8 of the last 9 winners drawn 6 or lower
3 of the last 7 winners drawn in stall 6

2.25 - Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV

22/22 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
22/22 – Had raced at least twice before
20/22 – Had won between 1-2 times before
20/22 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
19/22 – Placed favourites
18/22 – Foaled in Feb or March
18/22 – Won by a UK-based yard
16/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/22 – Ran at Ascot last time out
15/22 – Had won over 6f before
13/22 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/22 – Won last time out
10/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Drawn in stall 1 (3 of the last 7)
3/22 – Trained by the Hannon team
3/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc 2 of last 10)
2/22 – Trained by the Johnston yard
3 of the last 11 winners drawn in stall 7
9 of the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter

3.00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

Just 8 previous running
The Saeed Bin Suroor yard won this race in 2021 and 2023
The Johnston yard won this race in 2019, 2020 and 2022
The Charlie Appleby yard won this race in 2018
The Andrew Balding yard won this race in 2024
Godolphin have won 3 of the 8 past runnings
8/8 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
7/8 – Aged 4 or 6
6/8 – Carried 9-0 or more
4/8 – Aged 4 years-old
3/8 – Trained by the Johnston yard
3/8 – Winning favourites (3 of the last 5)
2/8 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy (2 of the last 5)
1/8 – Just 1 winning 5 year-old
Oneforthegutter (12/1) won this race in 2025

3.35 - Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

23/24 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
22/24 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
20/24 – Had 2+ runs that season
19/24 – Won over at least 1m previously
19/24 – Won from stall 5 or lower
18/24 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
18/24 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
15/24 – Favourites placed
10/24 – Previous Group One winners
8/24 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
7/24 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
7/24 – Won their last race
4/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (4 of the last 12)
3/24 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 14 runnings)
2/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 10 runnings)
2/24 - Owned by the Cheveley Park Stud (2 of the last 12 runnings)
2/24 – French-trained winners
4 of the last 9 winners Irish-trained
Since 1979 all bar 2 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old
The last horse to win aged 5 or older was Soviet Song (2005)
10 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 4 (7)
Charlie Appleby has just 1 win in the race (Cinderella’s Dream, 2025)
Godolphin have just 1 win in the race (Cinderella’s Dream, 2025)
9 of the last 10 winners from stalls 4 or lower
Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 winners (2016 Alice Springs & 2017 Roly Poly)

 

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2026 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day One Thursday 9th July

The three-day 2026 Newmarket July Meeting gets started on Thursday (9th July) and runs till Saturday (11th July) - with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races from a trends angle – use these to narrow down the runners and pinpoint the best profiles of past winners of the race.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day One, Thursday 9th July 2026

1.50 - Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV

23/24 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
20/24 – Failed to win last time out
17/24 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
16/24 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
16/24 – Favourites placed in the top three
14/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
14/24 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
12/24 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
8/24 – Winning favourites
4/24 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 15 runnings) (5 in total, winning-most trainer)
4/24 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of the last 3)
4/24 – Won by Godolphin (3 of the last 5 Charlie Appleby)
2/24 – Winners that came from stall 1
The last 11 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race three times (1999, Moon Dragon, 2016 Housesofparliament & 2025 Scandinavia)
Jamie Spencer has ridden 2 of the last 9 winners

2.25 – Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

23/24 – Had won over 5f or 6f previously
21/24 – Placed in their last run
20/24 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
16/24 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
14/24 – Won their last race
13/24 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
12/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
12/24 – Unplaced favourites
8/24 – Trained by Hannon yard (10 wins in total) (2 of the last 5)
8/24 – Winning favourites (4 of the last 10)
3/24 – Winners that came from stall 1 (2 of the last 3)
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times (2005, Ivan Denisovich, 2019 Royal Lytham & 2024 Whistlejacket)
Last 4 winners stalls 1-4
Charlie Appleby has never won the July Stakes

3.00 – Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 6f ITV

18/20 – Had won no more than 3 times before
17/20 – Had won over 6f before
16/20 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
17/20 – Carried 8-12 or less
16/20 – Didn’t win last time out
15/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/20 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
14/20 – Came from a double-figure stall
14/20 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
13/20 – Unplaced favourites
8/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 10)
4/20 – Ridden by David Probert
1/20 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 11 winners drawn 8+
The last 9 winners carried between 8-3 and 8-12

3.35 - Princess Of Wales´s Stakes (Sponsored by the Kingdom Of Bahrain) (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

22/24 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 13 of last 17)
21/24 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
20/24 – Had 2 or more runs that season
19/24 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
18/24 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/24 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
16/24 – Unplaced in their previous race
12/24 – Favourites that were placed
10/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/24 – Won by the Johnston yard (2 of the last 7)
4/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2007, 2009, 2011 and 2012)
3/24 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (3 of the last 9)
2/24 – Trained by Michael Bell (2 of the last 11)
2/24 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (2 of the last 12)
2/24 – Trained by John Gosden
The last 11 winners all aged 4 or 5
Just one 3 year-old winner since 2007
Godolphin have won 5 of the last 12 runnings

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Sat TV Trends: 4th July 2026

The ITV cameras head to Sandown and Newmarket on Saturday 4th July with the Coral-Eclipse, plus the Lancashire Oaks and Old Newton Cup the clear highlights – as always, here at Geegeez we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

With Newmarket hosting for Haydock on Saturday, with the track still unraceable. With the action this Saturday on ITV4.

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1:50 - Coral Charge (Registered as The Sprint Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

23/24 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
22/24 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
19/24 – Had won at least 3 times before
17/24 – Favourites placed
17/24 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/24 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/24 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/24 – Winning favourites
8/24 – Won last time out
7/24 – Had won at Sandown before
7/24 – Ran at Ascot last time out
10 of the last 19 winners were Irish bred
14 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
8 of the last 9 winners from stalls 6 or lower
The last 5 winners were all aged 5
Rumstar (11/2) won the race in 2025

2:25 – Coral Challenge (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y ITV4

23/24 – Aged 6 or younger
21/24 – Previous winners over 1m (or further)
21/24 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
20/24 – Didn’t win their previous race
18/24 – Placed favourites
14/24 – Had run at Sandown before
13/24 – Aged 4 years-old
12/24 – Ran at either York (2) or Ascot (10) last time out
8/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/24 – Winning favourites
2/24 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/24 - Trained by William Haggas (won 2 of the last 7 runnings)
The Richard Hannon yard have won 2 of the last 8
16 of the last 20 winners came from stall 8 or lower
Classic (6/1) won this race in 2025

3:00 – Coral Distaff (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m14y ITV4

21/22 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
20/22 – Had never run at Sandown before
19/22 – Had won over 7f or further before
17/22 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/22 – Favourites that finished in the top three
13/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
6/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/22 - Trained by William Haggas (3 of last 7)
3/22 - Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of last 10)
17 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 3-9 (inc)
11 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 3,4,5 or 6
Oisin Murphy has ridden 2 of the last 6
Trainers Andrew Balding (2), John Gosden (2) and William Haggas (3) have won the last 7 between them
Blue Bolt (2/1 fav) won the race in 2025

3.35 – Coral-Eclipse (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV4

24/24 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
20/24 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
19/24 – Won by a previous Group One winner
19/24 – Placed favourites
18/24 – Placed in their last race
17/24 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season
12/24 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out (four won there)
11/24 – Favourites that won
8/24 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
8/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4 of the last 5)
7/24 – Raced in the Epsom Derby that season
4/24 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of last 14)
10 of the last 19 winners won last time out
3 of the last 16 Epsom Derby winners of that season went onto win the race
The last 6 year-old to win the race was in 1886
17 of out the last 21 winners had run in the previous 30 days
16 out of the last 21 winners were Group 1 winners
20 of the last 21 winners came from the first four in the betting
18 out of the last 21 winners had won over 1m 2f or further
Every winner since 1886 (first run) was aged 6 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 24 runnings is 7/2
The last 5 winners aged 3

Other Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2021, 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002 & 2000
Godolphin-owned horses have won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996, 1995, 2016 & 2020
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 13 runnings (2012, 2015, 2018 & 2019)

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2:05 – Betway Bet £10 Get £40 Handicap Cl2 1m6f95y ITV4

9 previous runnings
8/9 - Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 - Drawn between stalls 4-9 (inc)
8/9 – Won between 1-2 times
8/9 – Yet to win over 1m6f
6/9 - Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Rated between 80-87
6/9 – Didn’t win last race
5/9 - Carried 8-13 or more in weight
5/9 – Finished 1st or 2nd in last race
5/9 – Placed favourites
3/9 – Had run at Haydock before (2 winners)
3/9 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/9 - Winning favourites
3/9 – Won by a claiming jockey
William Haggas trained the winner in 2020, 2022 and 2024
The Johnston yard trained the winner in 2018, 2019, 2024 & 2025
John Gosden trained the winner in 2017
Pole Star (9/1) won the race in 2025
Note: This race is normally run at Haydock

2:40 – bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m3f200y ITV4

21/24 – Had won at least at Listed class before
21/24 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
21/24 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
19/24 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
19/24 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
18/24 – Placed favourites
17/24 – Had won between 1-3 times before
14/24 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/24 – Won last time out
13/24 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/24 – Trained by John Gosden (10 total)
8/24 – Winning favourites
8/24 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/24 – Raced at Ascot last time out
The last 13 runnings have been won by a 4 year-old
Only 1 6yold winner since 1960
Estrange (2/7) won the race last year
Note: The 2007 renewal was staged at Newmarket
Note: This race is normally run at Haydock

3.15 – bet365 Old Newton Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m3f200y ITV4

21/23 – Had won a race over 1m4f before
17/23 – Aged 5 or younger
17/23 – Won no more than 5 times before
17/23 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
15/23 – Had won at least 3 times before
15/23 – Carried 9-1 or less
15/23 – Officially rated between 89 and 97
13/23 – Favourites placed in the top 4
13/23 – Aged 4 years-old
11/23 – Irish or USA bred
11/23 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/23 – Raced within the last 7 days
9/23 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting
8/23 – Placed horses (top three) from stall 4
7/23 – Raced at Ascot last time out
6/23 – Had won a race at Haydock before
6/23 – Won last time out
3/23 – Trained by the Johnston yard
2/23 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/23 – Trained by Marco Botti
2/23 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Andrew Balding has won 2 of the last 4
The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 9/1
Note: There was NO race in 2024 (abandoned)
Note: This race is normally run at Haydock

 

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2026 Coral Eclipse Trends

Run over 1m2f at Sandown Park racecourse in early July the Coral-Eclipse Stakes is open to horses aged 3 or older and with 19 of the last 24 winners having already landed a Group One contest in their careers then it often attracts some of the best horses from around the world.

In recent years, we’ve seen three of the last 16 Epsom Derby winners from that season go onto land the Coral-Eclipse, while favourites have a decent record – winning 12 of the last 24 and being placed in 19 of the last 24.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at recent winners and highlights the key stats to be looking out for ahead of the 2026 renewal - this year run on Saturday 4th July.

Coral Eclipse Stakes Past Winners

2025 - Delacroix (3/1)
2024 - City Of Troy (1/4 fav)
2023 - Paddington (8/11 fav)
2022 - Vadeni (11/4)
2021 – St Mark’s Basilica (Evs fav)
2020 – Ghaiyyath (9/4)
2019 - Enable (4/6 fav)
2018 - Roaring Lion (7/4 fav)
2017 – Ulysses (8/1)
2016 – Hawkbill (6/1)
2015 – Golden Horn (4/9 fav)
2014 – Mukhadram (14/1)
2013 – Al Kazeem (15/8 fav)
2012 – Nathaniel (7/2)
2011 – So You Think (4/11 fav)
2010 - Twice Over (13/8 fav)
2009 – Sea The Stars (4/7 fav)
2008 – Mount Nelson (7/2)
2007 – Notnowcato (7/1)
2006 –David Junior (9/4)
2005 –Oratorio (12/1)
2004 –Refuse To Bend (15/2)
2003 –Falbrav (8/1)
2002 – Hawk Wing (8/15 fav)

Coral Eclipse Stakes Betting Trends

24/24 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
20/24 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
19/24 – Won by a previous Group One winner
19/24 – Placed favourites
18/24 – Placed in their last race
17/24 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season
12/24 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out (four won there)
11/24 – Favourites that won
8/24 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
8/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4 of the last 5)
7/24 – Raced in the Epsom Derby that season
4/24 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of last 14)
10 of the last 19 winners won last time out
3 of the last 16 Epsom Derby winners of that season went onto win the race
The last 6 year-old to win the race was in 1886
17 of out the last 21 winners had run in the previous 30 days
16 out of the last 21 winners were Group 1 winners
20 of the last 21 winners came from the first four in the betting
18 out of the last 21 winners had won over 1m 2f or further
Every winner since 1886 (first run) was aged 6 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 24 runnings is 7/2
The last 5 winners aged 3

Other Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts

Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2021, 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002 & 2000
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2007, 2001, 1997, 1994, 1993 & 2017
Godolphin-owned horses have won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996, 1995, 2016 & 2020
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 13 runnings (2012, 2015, 2018 & 2019)

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Sat TV Trends: 27th June 2026

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to York - plus it’s Irish Derby weekend over at the Curragh, with the big race on Sunday (4:35pm) - as always, Andy Newton’s got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)

1:55 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Mile Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV

Just one past running
Trainer William Haggas won the race last year
Trainer William Haggas have a 23% SR with their 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John & Thady Gosden have a 22% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 11-437 (3%) with their runners at York

2:25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dash Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV

Just one past running
Trainer Nigel Tinkler won the race last year
Squealer won the race in 2025
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 11-437 (3%) with their runners at York
Trainer Richard Hughes has a 38% SR (6-16) with his 3yolds at York

2:58 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

22/23 – Won over 7f before
20/23 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
20/23 – Had at least 1 run already that season
15/23 – Aged 5 or younger
13/23 – Finished unplaced last time out
13/23 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
12/23 – Unplaced favourites
11/23 – Came from stall 3 or lower
8/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/23 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 15 runnings)
Trainer John Gosden has won the race 5 times
12 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Jockey James Doyle has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
Only 2 winning 3 year-olds since 2004 and 3 since 1996
Note: Was run at Newmarket in 2024

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (Sky/ITV)

 

1:40 – Education Network Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 7f ITV

9/9 – Aged between 3-7 years-old
9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Won between 1-3 times
8/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
7/9 – Carried 9-3 or more
7/9 – Irish bred winners
7/9 – Won over 7f before
6/9 – Aged 4 years-old
5/9 – Rated 91 (3) or 97 (2)
5/9 – Had run at Newcastle before
4/9 – Ran at Goodwood (2) or Thirsk (2) last time out
4/9 – From stalls 1 (2) or 9 (2)
2/9 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 6 winners aged 4
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1
Jockey James Doyle has won the last 2
Wathnan Racing have won the last 2
Trainer William Haggas has a 40% with his 4+yolds at Newcastle

 

2:10 – Jenningsbet Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

23/24 – Had won over 6f before
21/24 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
18/24 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/24 – Unplaced last time out
16/24 – Yet to win a Group race
15/24 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
15/24 – Placed favourites
15/24 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/24 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/24 – Aged 5 or older
8/24 - Ran at Ascot last time out
8/24 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/24 – Had run at Newcastle before
4/24 – Won last time out
3/24 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of the last 4)
2/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/24 – Ridden by Tom Marquand (2 of the last 3)
15 of the last 23 winners came between stalls 1-5
4 of the last 8 winners came from stall 2
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 21 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
7 of the last 10 winners from stalls 3 or lower (6 from gates 2 or 3)
Diligent Harry won the race in 2025
Tiber Flow won the race in 2024

2:40 - Jenningsbet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

10 previous runnings
10/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/10 – Ran in the last 2 months
9/10 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
9/10 - Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
9/10 - Won over at least 1m6f in the past
8/10 – Aged 4 (4) or 6 (4) years-old
6/10 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Winners came from stalls 10-19 (inc)
4/10 - Won over 2m (flat) in the past
4/10 - Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1
Savrola won the race in 2025
Alphonse Le Grande won the race in 2024
The last 10 winners aged 4-6

3:15 – Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

23/24 - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
23/24 – Finished fifth or better last time out
20/24 – Came from stall 14 or lower
20/24 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
18/24 – Aged 6 or younger
18/24 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
14/24 – Carried 8-12 or less
14/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/24 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
8/24 – Won by a National Hunt yard
7/24 – Won their previous race
6/24 – Winning favourites
5/24 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
3/24 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 17 winners)
2/24 – Trained by Donald McCain (2 of the last 16)
2/24 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 7)
2/24 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 11)
1/24 – Won by a previous winner of the race
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle (moved from the turf)
Spirit Mixer won the race in 2025 and was 2nd in 2022
Other Northumberland Plate Facts
Just 1 horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985 (2021, Nicholas T (9))
Six of the last 20 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
6 of the last 11 winners has carried between 9st 1lbs and 9st 9lbs
Since the race was run on the AW (2016, 9 runnings) 8 winners drawn from stalls 9-17
9 of the last 9 winners between stalls 7-17
13 of the last 15 winner from stalls 14 or lower
11 winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 5 of the last 14
The Paul Cole yard trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

3:45 – Jenningsbet Over 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV

Just 9 previous runnings

9/9 - Had won over 6f before
9/9 - Won between 2-5 times
8/9 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
8/9 - Carried 9-2 or more in weight
7/9 - Returned between 15/2 or shorter
7/9- Unplaced last time out
6/9 - Drawn in stalls 9 or higher
6/9 - Placed favourites
6/9 - Rated between 95 and 99 (inc)
5/9 - Had run at the track before
2/9 - Came from stalls10
2/9 - Winning favourites
5 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 9-11
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/1
Trainer William Haggas has a 40% SR with his 4+yolds at Newcastle
Trainer Tim Easterby has won 2 of the last 6
Fivethousandandtoone won the race in 2025

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2026 Irish Derby Trends

The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is a Group One contest run over 1m4f at the Curragh racecourse.

In recent years, the race has been dominated by one trainer – Aidan O’Brien, who has landed the lucrative pot a staggering 17 times since 1997 and you can expect the Ballydoyle handler to be mob-handed once again.

He won the race 12 months ago with that season's Epsom Derby winner Lambourn (8/13) and before that with Los Angeles (2024) and Auguste Rodin (2023) - meaning he's won the last three.

We take a look back at past winners, plus give you all the key stats ahead of the 2026 renewal, this year run on Sunday 28th June.

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2025 - LAMBOURN (8/13 fav)
2024 - LOS ANGELES (13/8)
2023 - AUGUSTE RODIN (4/11 fav)
2022 - WESTOVER (11/8 jfav)
2021 – HURRICANE LANE (4/1)
2020 – SANTIAGO (2/1 fav)
2019 – SOVEREIGN (33/1)
2018 – LATROBE (14/1)
2017 – CAPRI (6/1)
2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR (4/1)

Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

22/23 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
20/23 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
19/23 – Won by an Irish-based yard
19/23 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
19/23 – Won a Group race before
19/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
18/23 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/23 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
17/23 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
15/23 – Failed to win their last race
15/23 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
14/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won the race 17 times in total)
12/23 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (5 winners, Lambourn, Auguste Rodin, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
6/23 – Previous Group 1 winners
4/23 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
3/23 - Ridden by Ryan Moore (last three)
2/23 – Ridden by William Buick
Jockey Ryan Moore won the Irish Derby for the first time in 2023 - but has won the last three now

 

20 horses have done the Epsom/Irish Derby double 

  • 2025 - Lambourn
  • 2023 - Auguste Rodin
  • 2016 - Harzand
  • 2014 - Australia
  • 2012 - Camelot
  • 2002 - High Chaparral
  • 2001 - Galileo
  • 2000 - Sinndar
  • 1993 - Commander In Chief
  • 1991 - Generous
  • 1988 - Kahyasi
  • 1986 - Shahrastani
  • 1981 - Shergar
  • 1979 - Troy
  • 1978 - Shirley Heights
  • 1977 - The Minstrel
  • 1975 - Grundy
  • 1970 - Nijinsky
  • 1964 - Santa Claus
  • 1907 - Orby

 

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Royal Ascot 2026: Day Four Preview, Trends, Tips

On we go, to the fourth day of five at Royal Ascot but the final day of our full preview coverage. I hope we've managed to add some fun - and maybe a winner or two - to your week. There have been some fireworks already and perhaps, if it's not being greedy, we can add to the pyrotechnics one more time...

 

N.B. Don't forget to check out our full Royal Ascot Friday trends page here.

 

Friday Tix Competition

We've yet another free £50 Tix competition today.

Bet £5 or more into the placepot/jackpot pools via Tix and, if you played the highest ROI ticket on the day, you'll get an extra £50 - on top of the 5% bonus paid to ALL winning bets placed through Tix.

Click here to take part >

 

 

Our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race
(*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).

 

The going for day four of Royal Ascot, Friday 19th June, is: Good to Firm.

GoingStick readings at 8.30am:
Stands’ side: 8.9
Centre: 8.9
Far side: 8.3
Round: 7.6

Stalls:
Straight Course: centre
Round Course: inside

Weather:
Dry overnight to Friday morning. It is forecast to be generally dry through the remainder of the week. Max temps expected to be between 26 and 28c through to Saturday.

Watering:
Watered 5mm on whole track overnight.

 

2.30 THE ALBANY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

6 of the last 7 winners had raced in the previous 30-34 day period and we have four fillies this year that fit the bill.

Two of the four finished 1st and 2nd in a Newmarket novice in the middle of May and it's the runner up that appeals the most due to her stable's previous notable record in the race. 

There were four maiden winners of this race between 2005 and 2011 with the last two being trained by the Channon yard who also won three of the first ten renewals of the Albany (the third of their three winners had been beaten under a length at the same Newmarket May meeting as the selection).

It was Andrew Balding's Jolivette that won that Newmarket race but fellow newcomer Topaz ran on really well to move into contention from the rear of the field as they entered the final furlong. She reeled in a number of challengers and kept on in eyecatching fashion without quite getting to Jolivette, who had got the first run on the field, and she had to settle for finishing a neck down at the line. Topaz entered a lot of notebooks for that run and she'll be winning races for a stable with previous pedigree with this type of filly.

She certainly doesn't deserve to be twice the price of the Newmarket winner and seems to offer a fair bit of value for a yard looking to reclaim former glories.

 

Suggestion: Try Topaz EW 25/1 (4 places)

 

 

 

Tix Pointers: All of the last 13 winners also won last time out; but plenty of big priced horses have made the frame. I'll be spreading out with last day winners.

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

3.05 THE COMMONWEALTH CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

The newest Group 1 at the Royal meeting, the Commonwealth Cup has bridged a glaring gap for top class three-year-olds that either failed to stay the Guineas trip or were never intended to go that far.

Although fields are usually large, winners have tended to be lurking in the shallows: ten of the 11 winners to date were sent off 12/1 or shorter and in the top five (including joints) in the betting. Of course, lobbing a curveball, was last year's scorer, Time For Sandals at 25/1. She was a third filly to win the race from 45 starters; the fairer sex has a similar win rate but a better place rate and a much better PRB.

With 22 scheduled to go to post, it might be worth noting that the two longest priced winners were when the field size was 21+. Only the electric Campanelle was able to go gate to wire, eight of the 11 winners settling in the second half of the field through the early stages.

The best trials have been the Sandy Lane, the Carnarvon and the 2000 Guineas.

Venetian Sun won the Sandy Lane at Haydock last time having looked a non-stayer in the 1000 Guineas previously. As a juvenile she lowered Gstaad's colours in the G1 Prix Morny and is unbeaten at 6f or shorter. She'll be at peak fitness and was ultra-impressive last time out. The problem is that she's very short - 6/4 in a field of 22 for a Group 1.

Aidan O'Brien is naturally represented here, by the runner-up from the Carnarvon Stakes, Albert Einstein. He's not won above Group 3 level and there's no clear reason why he should reverse form on this more testing track with the re-opposing winner that day, Song Of The Clyde. Moreover, Aidan's record in the Commonwealth Cup is uncharacteristically average: just one win (Caravaggio) from 18 starters. He's had favourites sent off 5/6, 10/11, evens, 11/4 and 10/3 with only the aforementioned horse-named-after-a-painter getting it done, at 5/6. You don't need to be Einstein to figure that the Ballydoyle runner is a bit on the skinny side at 6/1.

Carnarvon winners are actually two from two in this, both Eqtidaar and Shaquille doubling up; that means Song Of The Clyde deserves at least a second squint. He was a rock solid juvenile, winning almost half a million quid courtesy of valuable sales races in which he won and ran second in fields of 21. He does tend to race prominently or on the lead and he'll need the far side rail to ride quicker than it has done in the early part of the week from his berth in 2, but he fits on form.

On the high side, Wesley Ward runs Outfielder, fourth (beaten 2.75L) in Venetian Sun's Morny and a winner of both starts Stateside this season. Fast turf is no issue to this dirt bred US speedster - he has two wins on firm over there - but a straight six with an uphill finish might be tough to sustain for a horse that wears his heart on his sleeve out front. Still, he'll likely offer a bold sight for backers and was still hanging tough with a furlong to go in the one mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last autumn (he really should have run in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, as I wrote at the time!).

Also high is the second Aidan arrow, Charles Darwin: Ballydoyle have really sent their top scientists to this one. Darwin was drawn similarly high when winning the five furlong Norfolk at this meeting last year and added a verdict over the extra furlong on debut in 2026. He clunked in a G3 last time, Ryan reporting he thought the horse had lost its action, and Wayne Lordan takes over now. Lordan has won five Group 1's since the beginning of last season, including both the Newmarket and Irish 1000 Guineas this spring. This son of No Nay Never was unbeaten in four prior to that last day glitch and gets first time blinkers here; he's a certain forward goer which, as mentioned, may not be a positive.

There is actually a ton of pace drawn high. As well as Outfielder and Charles Darwin, Rock On Thunder (drawn 22) and Fitzella (16) are also habitual trailblazers, as to a slightly lesser degree Brussels (18), the third APO'B runner. That might mean they go too hard stands side; but, if they don't, the likeliest to pick up the pieces are Venetian Sun (13) and Wise Approach (15).

The last named is a bit of a forgotten man in this. He was less than a length behind Venetian Sun in the Morny before winning the Group 1 Middle Park over 6f.  True, he's underwhelmed twice in the spring, when beaten about three lengths in each of the Pavilion Stakes (a trial for this) and the Carnarvon; but what if those were sighters for his primary target, the Commonwealth Cup? An alternative theory is that he hasn't trained on - and that holds some water at this stage - but his price is playable and he figures to get a pace setup most likely.

Coppull won the Pavilion last time, and as a two-year-old was a close third to Wise Approach in the Middle Park and a slightly more distant third behind Gstaad in the Coventry. He has two solid bits of track and trip form, then, and is genuine Group 1 class. Stall 14 sandwiches him between Venetian Sun and Wise Approach.

If high numbers have had the best of it so far this week (Tue/Wed as I write this Thursday morning), the stall positions of CC winners gives pause for thought. To wit, last year stall 1 of 21, then 1 of 14, 3 of 13, 1 of 20, 11 of 15, 10 of 16, 4 of 9, and 3 of 22. Hmm. But let's take a breath and consider the evidence more broadly.

 

 

The chart above is PRB3 (the average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) by actual draw position (accounting for non-runners). This is a really good way of smoothing the curve and getting under the skin of seemingly counter-intuitive draw bias numbers. What it shows is that low draws have performed pretty well, especially very low; but so, too, have very high numbers: it appears that being close to either rail is an advantage. That makes a lot more sense even if it doesn't especially help us find the winner, not obviously at any rate.

What we can say is that those drawn in the middle have tended to struggle, which brings in Wise Approach and Venetian Sun. Good grief, help!

There's one more I want to highlight. Drawn 3 is Division, a Wathnan Racing-owned son of Kingman who has probably been screaming for a setup like this. He won a 13-runner Listed race at York over six last October and then, in two spins this term, ran an eyecatching closing third in the Pavilion (course and distance) and then got closest to Venetian Sun in the Sandy Lane at Haydock. He is a closer and, while most of the pace is high, the low numbers have Song Of The Clyde (2), Zanthos (1) and Havana Anna (7). They look sure to carry Division into the mix on his side, from where it's a case of whether they're in front or behind the other lot - assuming there's a, erm, division in the field.

Suggestion: It's a really tricky race if you, like me, want to oppose the 'obvious' filly in the field, Venetian Sun. She might very well win but I can't be taking 6/4. Instead I'm going make two small each way plays, on Wise Approach and Division. If low is again the place to be - or at least not the place not to be (eh?) - 12/1 Division should be bang there. Wise Approach, also 12/1, does require a touch more imagination, but if you like VS from 13 you can't mind WA from 15; he obviously needs to step up on his 2026 level thus far.

 

Tix Pointers: It's not been a crazy race from a placepot perspective. That said, last year was 25/1, 28/1, 20/1, with the first two home drawn 1 and 20 in a field of 21. I'm definitely going deeper than the favourite on my A tickets.

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3.40 THE DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Sam Darby 

This will be my strongest fancy of the week in what is traditionally my favourite race of the meeting - hopefully we’re rewarded. I tend to only bet in the handicaps, and the straight course races are obviously highly unpredictable, not just because of the number of runners but also because the draw bias can be difficult to get right.

There is a clear draw bias over 12f though, and that doesn’t change from race to race or meeting to meeting fortunately.





Even a quick glance at the above shows a strong draw bias towards the higher numbers and, particularly, away from the low numbers.

In terms of PRB3, even the worst of the double figure stalls is pretty much better than any single figure stall and the best single figure stalls come out as 8 and 9.

It’s not impossible to defy a lower draw, of course - the last three winners of this race have come from single figures (7, 4 and 9). However, the previous seven winners came from 19, 19, 14,12, 12, 19 and 18. 

Before I delve into the pace map and form, the other thing worth flagging is the role the draw plays in any pace bias. To defy a lower draw, you generally need to be prominent. That makes perfect sense given the patiently ridden horses from low stalls will often meet significant trouble in running in such large fields.

The sweet spot appears to be a middle to high draw, with a prominent or mid division racing style. The pace map below is sorted high draws at the top to low draws at the bottom.



There look to be three potential front runners in this, all drawn middle to high. I’m not convinced they’ll go massively hard, but it does look likely to be run at an even gallop at least, and should be a pretty fair race on that score.

I’ll cut straight to the chase. The horse I really like for this is HOPEWELL ROCK.

For those of you who have read other previews and articles I’ve written, you’ll probably know that hot form plays a huge part in my selection process. I already liked Hopewell Rock for this at the five day stage, but he was given an almighty form boost in the final race on day one of this meeting.

On seasonal debut at Newmarket, in a steadily run contest, Hopewell Rock did well to finish 3rd (beaten just 1.75 lengths) after being held up out the back. The first two home were Daiquiri Bay and Gamrai, who held the first two positions throughout. That pair then finished 1st and 2nd again in the Copper Horse Stakes on Tuesday.

Opportunity was the ante post favourite for this but I already thought he might be vulnerable having gone up 8lbs for winning what looked a fairly weak race last time, albeit winning it very well. He’s now been handed stall 1, which has a dreadful record in these races, and I’d be very confident in opposing this horse.

Warrant Holder fared much better with the draw (17) and he’s sure to be popular given his profile. It’s worth noting though that he was 5.5 lengths behind Hopewell Rock at Leicester in October and is now 11lbs worse off with that rival. That’s not to say he can’t reverse the form eight months later - a lot of water has passed under the bridge since - but Warrant Holder’s subsequent exploits are another form boost for the selection.

That horse is probably the main danger to Hopewell Rock, whilst at bigger prices, I could see Plage De Havre running into the places. He looks held by the handicapper, but his Old Newton Cup demolition job last year worked out extremely well, and being 10lbs higher for winning that race by four lengths makes him vulnerable to less exposed rivals without ruling him out.

It will be interesting to see what race position Hopewell Rock can get early. I’d have definitely preferred a higher draw to guarantee a wider trip. From stall 8, I still worry that James McDonald won’t have done his homework and he’ll switch him inside and have him out the back. He will have a massive chance of riding the winner if he can keep wider and slot in around mid division, before challenging down the outside in the straight.

If you can get 5/1+, I think he’s still okay as an each way bet.

Suggestion: Back Hopewell Rock e/w at 5/1+

 

Tix Pointers: High draws are fine here, and horses patiently ridden and lucky in the run are those on which to focus. Obviously we won't know which are which on either count until after the race - annoying!

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4.20 THE CORONATION STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

If the St James's Palace Stakes on Tuesday is a confluence of the European 2000 Guineas form, then the Coronation Stakes is the 1000 Guineas' equivalent. Sadly, with no French entry this year it looks a straight match between the winners at Newmarket and the Curragh, both trained by that man Aidan.

At Newmarket, Precise was favoured and ridden by Ryan Moore but True Love won, ridden by Wayne Lordan. Precise, racing on the other side of the track, was beaten five lengths by a winner that was a neck shy of two lengths better than anything else in the race.

If we thought we had our miling queen crowned, the Curragh was a reset of pre-Newmarket thinking. This time, True Love was favoured and ridden by Moore, but Precise re-asserted her primacy in the hands of Wayne Lordan. Precise 1 True Love 1, but Wayne 2 Ryan 0. How frustrating it must be for a jockey in such a position.

Precise is likely to be waited with, as is her wont, and in a smallish field that ought not to be an issue; she looks good to go 2-1 ahead on her fellow Classic-winning stablemate, and 4/6 might not be an uncharitable offer from the layers either, if odds on is your thing.

If there's one thing that tempers enthusiasm, it's O'Brien's relatively poor record in the Coronation Stakes. Since 2009, he's saddled 24 fillies and won just twice, with Lillie Langtry in 2010 and Winter in 2017. Hermosa was beaten at evens, Found at 13/8, Homecoming Queen at 9/4, Opera Singer at 10/3 and Meditate and Together, both 7/2. Food for thought, at least.

I got the impression that Newmarket may have taken plenty out of True Love, who was clearly riper that day, when she ran fairly flat at the Curragh - albeit still grabbing the silver medal. As such, I'd be more wary of her this time. Depending on whether I'm right or wrong on that, there are one or two each way places to play for so let's go deeper into the field.

Touleen raced on the same (wrong) side as Precise in the 1000 Guineas, and finished half a length in front of that one though no match for Evolutionist (a noted absentee here) who 'won' that far side race. She'd previously run a lovely race in defeat in the Fred Darling, closing for second over the inadequate seven furlongs at Newbury. Owen Burrows is a trainer I respect more than most and he's eminently capable with a decent Shadwell horse (think Hukum, Alflaila, Minzaal, Anmaat). There's a feeling this filly has a bit more to come and, though there needs to be on the balance of respective form, she's a definite place player at least.

We haven't seen Balantina since last season, which didn't stop Inspiral in 2022; but that filly was unbeaten whereas this one brings solid but not outstanding claims to the party. Her trainer, Donnacha O'Brien, won this two years ago with Porta Fortuna but she arrived with a neck second in the 1000 Guineas under her belt. There are enough reasons to discount her this time though I'll be very interested to see how she runs with a view to the second half of the campaign.

Fourth at the Curragh was Black Caviar Gold, and she gets a first time visor here. Trainer Paddy Twomey has reached for the visor five times in the past two years, saddling a winner and two seconds from that quintet. They were all very well fancied, however, so that doesn't really tell us anything! This filly doesn't look good enough, in truth.

Similar comments apply to each of Timeforshowcasing, Moon Target and Rose Ghaiyyath, but Sukanya may not be completely without hope. She won the Fred Darling, beating Touleen, before running no sort of a race in the Irish 1000. She got a bump at the start there and was lit up and keen as a result; as such, she was entitled to guzzle her gas before the race was over. It wouldn't be the biggest shock if she made the frame.

Suggestion: This is not a deep renewal and 4/6 PRECISE probably wins. The obvious alternative, True Love from the same stable, looks opposable I think, making 9/1 Touleen reasonable each way value. Hail Mary players might consider a ha'penny each way on 40/1 Sukanya in case her Curragh spin was a chuck out.

 

Tix Pointers: The favourite or second favourite has placed in 12 of the last 13 years. Favourite banker?

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5.00 THE SANDRINGHAM STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

A 3yo fillies handicap over the straight mile to finish my week’s work. I’ll start by taking a look at the 15-year trends, which see four strong pointers.

Market Rank

Six wins for the SP favourites (seven for the BSP fav) so, despite having big fields generally (11 of the races with 20+ runners), the market has proved a good guide as far as market leaders are concerned.

Price LTO

Related, 14 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 17/2 or less LTO. A further 31 were placed. Horses priced 9/1 or bigger LTO have won just once from 123 runners (10 placed).

Weight Rank

Seven of the last 15 winners have come from the top four in the weights (inc. joint 4th). This equates to 47% of the winners from just under 20% of the total runners. Also, a further 14 were placed.

Position LTO

Eight of the last 15 winners won LTO. This equates to 53% of the winners from just 28% of the total runners.

 

We have a few angles for those who follow long term race trends, then.

Looking at the draw now, and last year the first three horses were drawn 2, 6 and 1, whereas in 2023 the first seven home were drawn middle to high. This race has not been that easy to predict draw wise, unlike some of the other straight course races that have tended to show a more reliable and consistent bias. However, I personally will take high to middle over low unless the ground comes up soft, which given the forecast seems very unlikely.

Moving onto run style / pace, 10 of the last 11 winners, and 36 of 44 win & placed runners, were either held up or raced no closer than midfield early. This seems to be a race where waiting tactics are the order of the day. Here is the pace map this time around:

 

 

 

All the early pace looks to be in the high numbers here so a middle to high draw could be the place to be.

 

Here are some of the leading contenders...

Seet – trained by the Gosdens who won this race in 2023 with Coppice. Is a very good trends fit and seems to have the right pace profile albeit having had just three career runs (six of the last 18 winners had just the three runs). Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking and, since 2008, the Moore/Gosden combo has secured 40 wins from 149 rides hitting close to a 27%-win rate, and this year they are currently seven from 12. Drawn 20 looks decent based on the pace map.

Glyfada – not seen on a racecourse as a 2yo but has had two wins and a second from three starts this year. Irish raiders have been successful a couple of times in the last 15 years. Oisin Murphy takes the ride which looks a positive. Drawn 31 which I am thinking might be a good one.

Symbol of Majesty – another from the Gosden yard. Was beaten favourite last time at Wolverhampton when getting poorly positioned from off the pace. Will need to bounce back. Drawn 21.

Darn Hot Gallop – Out of her depth in the 1000 Guineas but previously was three from three at a lower level. If the stable really thought the horse had the potential to be competitive at Group 1 level, then she must have a chance here.

Rosa Inglesa – Charlie Fellows bagged this race in consecutive years in 2019 and 2020 and runs Rosa Inglesa this time. Last time out was a comfortable winner at Nottingham and has been raised 9lb for that success. That doesn’t look too harsh to me. Drawn 19.

 

Suggestion: Famous last words but I want to be drawn middle to high here and hence my three favoured horses are Seet (drawn 20), Rosa Inglesa (drawn 19) and Glyfada (drawn 31). I’m going to suggest 5/1 Seet to win and 9/1 Glyfada each way.

 

Tix Pointers: A race where staying close to the top of the market has served very well. And a patient ride (midfield or held up) has got 11 of the last 13 winners.

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5.35 THE KING EDWARD VII STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Rory Delargy

Traditionally known as the ‘Ascot Derby’ the King Edward VII is rarely a target for those who have gone to Epsom due to its proximity, and it no longer enjoys the status it once enjoyed for all it still retains Group 2 status. Derby flop Ancient Egypt bids to get his career back on track but while I’d excuse his Epsom run on account of the soft ground, it almost always pays to pass over those who come here via Epsom, and he may have to wait for another day.

The race appears to be a clash between Gallinule Stakes winner Causeway and the Kempton novice winner Water Into Wine and the argument is whether the former can utilise his experience against a horse who had little more than an exercise gallop against vastly inferior rivals last time.

Causeway is a typical Coolmore product, being a son of Wootton Bassett out of a beautifully bred daughter of Galileo. His profile suggests that the trip could be an issue as he raced at a mile or shorter on his first four runs, but there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and Coolmore have been breeding Galileo to speedily bred mares to produce middle-distance stars for long enough to know how the magic happens.

Causeway stepped up to ten furlongs in the Gallinule, a Group 3 that has thrown out champions like Ardross and Assert in bygone days, but only Leading Light has gone on to much greater things of recent winners and Causeway beat only a useful bunch to score at the Curragh. That said, he did score in the style of an improving colt, repelling the challenge of Zia Zabel with more in hand than a head would suggest. On the evidence of the run, he will stay this longer trip and looks a solid contender.

Water Into Wine has won a maiden and a novice in two starts, both over 1m3f, and has yet to be extended. The question with him is working out how much substance there is beneath the obvious style, and whether it’s enough to justify favouritism here. First of all, I’ll admit he didn’t beat anything of merit at Kempton last time when cruising to an 11-length win; but his victory on debut at Newbury is a better effort to judge him on, and he was less experienced than the colt he slammed into second that day. That colt, Richard Hannon’s Alderman, went on to Epsom on the back of that second-place effort and finished a highly creditable fifth to Christmas Day in the Derby, beating the likes of Pierre Bonnard, Ancient Egypt and Item by upwards of 2¾ lengths. That might flatter him a little but Water Into Wine made him look slow at Newbury and the winner is entitled to take another step forward given he’s yet to be fully tested.

Some are wary of the switch from all-weather to turf for big races, but Newbury proves he’s effective on firmish ground and I’m inclined to take a very positive view of his form, with his campaign reminiscent of the way Lucarno was campaigned for the same connections before winning the St Leger. I think John Gosden has been quite clever to come here rather than the Queen’s Vase as he was likely to find a smaller field, which will help to offset his inexperience. Causeway will be by far his toughest opponent and will not lie down, but I expect Water To Wine won’t need a miracle to maintain his unbeaten record.

 

Suggestion: 1pt Exacta Water To Wine/Causeway

 

Tix Pointers: Only the Covid edition messed things up for jollies on the placepot ticket. As the last leg, it might be one in which to bank and lay the favourite for a place on the exchange?

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6.10 THE PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by David Massey

There’s a fair spread of pace across the course here, although I’d be surprised if anything led up the speedball that is Revival Power from the low numbers. I’m a massive fan of hers, she did me a few good turns last year but it is worth remembering she did get herself a bit stewed up before the Queen Mary last year and her effort fizzled out as a result. If she can keep a lid on things this time around then obviously her chance would increase, but I suspect there are other targets for her in the second half of the season and it’ll probably be a watching brief.

Only two horses with single-figure draws have hit the frame in this in the last five years; compare that to nine drawn 20 or above that have delivered an each-way return (and that includes three winners) and it probably pays to stick with those drawn high. With that, I think Starmade, from stall 30, makes plenty of interest.

So far Starmade has won twice on the all-weather, successful over 6f at Newcastle last time out (third a winner since) and whilst his three turf efforts don’t match that form, he’s only raced on ground described by Timeform as either soft or good to soft. There must be a chance he is going to improve for quicker conditions here, and the way he travels strongly towards the midfield/rear in his races is probably the right sort of runstyle required to win this. I see some 25s around as I type; 20s and bigger looks perfectly fair.

Dickensian, second in the Windsor Castle last year, is more obvious but is worth pointing out all the same. Last year, he was showing a lot of speed in his races and not always seeing them out, so it was interesting to see new tactics employed on his reappearance at York last month, Shane Gray dropping him out and allowing a fast pace to come back to him at the finish. He showed plenty of tenacity to poke his head in front late on, and that form looks strong; the second home, Simplify, is an improver, and third home Aspect Island lost nothing in defeat when finishing midfield in the King Charles III Stakes here on Tuesday. There should be more to come from him now he’s shown himself tactically versatile.

To complete the shortlist, there's nothing wrong with the claims of James Owen's Cherry Baker. Her profile is probably a bit less sexy than a few, but she's nicely drawn, has the right hold-up run style, and it's a case of whether a drop to five furlongs is going to suit. It might, as for all she's been tried over seven furlongs and a mile, her best form has come over six, her record at that trip reading 112; she comes here in cracking form after two good efforts at Chester. It's not hard to see her finishing off well, and she's one you should at least have in all your exotics here.

Suggestion: Try Starmade e/w at 25/1 or bigger, or Dickensian at 12/1

*

That's it from us for Royal Ascot week. As always, we invite you to go solo on Saturday, and wish you all the best of luck. Thank you very much to my fantastic support (Dave Renham, Sam Darby, Gavin Priestley, David Massey and Rory Delargy) and, mostly, thank you very much to you for following along with us. I hope you've been lucky.

Enjoy the rest of the sport!

Matt

2026 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Three (Thurs 18th June)

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2026 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 16th to Sat 20th June 2026) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day three on Thursday 18th June 2026.

Royal Ascot Trends Day Three – Thursday 18th June 2026

2.30 - Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f ITV

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Humidity (4/1)
2024 – Bedtime Story (11/8 fav)
2023 – Snellen (12/1)
2022 – Holloway Boy (40/1)
2021 – Point Lonsdale (10/11 fav)
2020 – Battleground (11/4 fav)
2019 – Pinatubo (3/1)
2018 – Arthur Kitt (13/2)
2017 – September (11/8 fav)
2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

22/23 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
20/23 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
19/23 – Had just 1 previous career run
19/23 – Were foaled in March or earlier
17/23 – Ran over 6f last time out (11 won)
16/23 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Won their previous race
8/23 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/23 – Irish trained-winners (Aidan O’Brien, 5 of the last 10 winners)
2/23 – Trained by the Johnston yard
2/23 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021 & 2024
17 of the last 20 winners came between stalls 1-8
7 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (4)
15 of the last 20 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
The Cole yard have won the race 4 times before

3.05 - King George V Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m4f ITV

King George V Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Merchant (3/1 fav)
2024 – Going The Distance (9/1)
2023 – Desert Hero (18/1)
2022 – Secret State (4/1 jfav)
2021 – Surefire (5/1)
2020 – Hukum (12/1)
2019 – South Pacific (22/1)
2018 – Baghdad (9/1)
2017 – Atty Persse (7/1)
2016 - Primitivo (13/2)
2015 – Space Age (9/1)
2014 – Elite Army (4/1 jfav)
2013 – Elidor (20/1)
2012 – Fennell Bay (12/1)
2011 – Brown Panther (4/1 jfav)
2010 – Dandino (7/1)
2009 – Cosmic Sun (66/1)
2008 – Colony (11/2 fav)
2007 – Heron Bay (20/1)
2006 – Linas Selection (9/2)
2005 – Munsef (14/1)
2004 – Admiral (9/1)
2003 – Fantastic Love (10/1)

King George V Stakes Trends

22/23 – Never raced at Ascot before
21/23 – Had at least 2 previous runs that same season
21/23 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
21/23 – Placed last time out
17/23 – Carried 8-13 or less
16/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f previously
13/23 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
13/23 – Won their previous race
12/23 – Favourites placed
4/23 – Won by the Johnston camp (4)
4/23 – Ran at Haydock last time out
5/23 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/23 – Godolphin-owned (Charlie Appleby has trained 2 of the last 11)
13 of the last 20 winners came between stalls 10-20 (inc)
8 of the last 20 winners came between stalls 10-16 (inc)
Ralph Beckett has trained 2 of the last 6 winners
Charlie Appleby has trained 2 of the last 12 winners
William Buick has ridden 2 of the last 12 winners

3.40 - Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f ITV

Ribblesdale Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Garden Of Eden (7/1)
2024 – Port Fairy (12/1)
2023 – Warm Heart (13/2)
2022 – Magical Lagoon (11/4)
2021 – Loving Dream (18/1)
2020 – Frankly Darling (11/8 fav)
2019 – Star Catcher (4/1)
2018 – Magic Wand (10/3)
2017 – Coronet (9/1)
2016 – Even Song (15/8 fav)
2015 – Curvy (9/2)
2014 – Bracelet (10/1)
2013 – Riposte (9/2)
2012 – Princess Highway (17/2)
2011 – Banimpire (3/1 fav)
2010 – Hibaayeb (4/1 jfav)
2009 – Flying Cloud (5/1)
2008 – Michita (10/3 fav)
2007 – Silkwood (4/1)
2006 – Mont Etoile (25/1)
2005 – Thakafaat (22/1)
2004 – Punctilious (9/2)
2003 – Spanish Sun (9/2)

Ribblesdale Stakes Trends

20/23 – Had never raced at Ascot before
19/23 – Had at least 2 previous races that season
18/23 - Placed in their previous race
17/23 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
16/23 – Placed favourites
14/23 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/23 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
10/23 – Irish-trained winners (9 of last 14)
9/23 – Won their last race
5/23 – Winning favourites
6/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 of last 12)
6/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/23 - Trained by John Gosden (5 wins in total)
3/23 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (5 in total)
3/23 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
Just two winners from stall 1 in the last 19 runnings
10 of the last 19 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)

4.20 - Ascot Gold Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

Recent Ascot Gold Cup Winners

2025 – Trawlerman (85/40 fav)
2024 – Kyprios (11/10 fav)
2023 – Courage Mon Ami (15/2)
2022 – Kyprios (13/8 fav)
2021 – Subjectivist (13/2)
2020 – Stradivarius (4/5 fav)
2019 – Stradivarius (Evs fav)
2018 – Stradivarius (7/4 jfav)
2017 – Big Orange (5/1)
2016 – Order Of St George (10/11 fav)
2015 – Trip To Paris (12/1)
2014 – Leading Light (10/11 fav)
2013 – Estimate (7/2 fav)
2012 – Colour Vision (6/1)
2011 – Fame And Glory (11/8 fav)
2010 – Rite of Passage (20/1)
2009 – Yeats (6/4 fav)
2008 – Yeats (11/8 fav)
2007 – Yeats (8/13 fav)
2006 – Yeats (7/1)
2005 – Westerner (7/4 fav)
2004 – Papineau (5/1)
2003 – Mr Dinos (3/1)
2002 – Royal Rebel (16/1)

Ascot Gold Cup Trends

22/24 – Had no more than 2 previous runs that season
21/24 – Aged 6 or younger
21/24 – Had between 1-2 previous runs that season
19/24 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat before
19/24 – Favourites that were placed
19/24 – Won their last race
15/24 – Previous Group 1 winners
14/24 – Won by the favourite
11/24 – Aged 4 years-old (9 of the last 14)
10/24 – Irish-trained winners
9/24 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
6/24 – Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes)
4/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (4 of the last 13)
17 of the last 20 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13 of the last 20 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc) (7 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 7 or lower)
Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2012 & 2025
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner in 2024, 2022, 2016, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
John Gosden has trained the winner in 2018, 2019, 2020 & 2025
Since 1949 there have been 16 multiple winners of the race
Since 1930 only 4 winners aged 7+ (Trawlerman, Yeats x 2, Drum Taps)
France have won 15 Gold Cups (last Westerner)

5.00 - Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m ITV

Britannia Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Arabian Story (15/2)
2024 – Mickley (15/2)
2023 – Docklands (6/1 fav)
2022 – Thesis (14/1)
2021 – Perotto (18/1)
2020 – Khaloosy (9/2)
2019 – Biometric (28/1)
2018 – Ostillo (10/1)
2017 – Bless Him (25/1)
2016 – Defrocked (13/2)
2015 – War Envoy (10/1)
2014 – Born In China (14/1)
2013 – Beauty Flame (20/1)
2012 – Fast Or Free (6/1 fav)
2011 – Sagramor (8/1)
2010 – Ransom Note (9/1)
2009 – Fareer (20/1)
2008 – Fifteen Love (28/1)
2007 – Eddie Jock (33/1)
2006 – Sir Gerard (9/2 fav)
2005 – Mostashaar (10/3 fav)
2004 – Mandobi (8/1)
2003 – New Seeker (16/1)

Britannia Stakes Trends

21/23 – Had no more than 3 previous runs that season
19/23 – Had won a race over 7f or 1m before
19/23 – Placed last time out
15/23 – Carried 8-13 or less
15/23 – Had never run at Ascot before
14/23 – Failed to win their previous race
13/23 – Returned a double-figure price
13/23 – Unplaced favourites
9/23 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
9/23 – Had only won over 7f previously
4/23 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
4/23 – Winning favourites
3/23 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Just one top three finish horse from stall 1 in the last 20 runnings
16 of the last 20 winners came from a double-figure stall (2 of the last 6 winners from stall 19)
In 2025 the first 5 horses from stalls 27+
The first 10 home in 2024 were all from a double-figure stall
Aidan O’Brien has only trained 1 winner (War Envoy, 2015)
8 of the last 11 winners drawn between stalls 10-19
Trainer John Gosden has won the race 4 times (last 2001)

5.35 - Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f ITV

Hampton Court Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Trinity College (5/2 fav)
2024 – Jayrebe (7/1)
2023 – Waipiro (7/1)
2022 - Claymore (7/1)
2021 – Mohaafeth (11/8 fav)
2020 – Russian Emperor (10/3)
2019 – Sangarius (13/2)
2018 – Hunting Horn (5/1)
2017 – Benbatl (9/2)
2016 – Hawkbill (11/2)
2015 – Time Test (15/8 fav)
2014 – Cannock Chase (7/4 fav)
2013 – Remote (9/4 fav)
2012 – Energizer (15/2)
2011 – Pisco Sour (20/1)
2010 – Afsare (9/4 fav)
2009 – Glass Harmonium (8/1)
2008 – Collection (13/2)
2007 – Zaham (7/2 fav)
2006 – Snoqualmie Boy (33/1)
2005 – Indigo Cat (3/1 fav)
2004 – Moscow Ballet (8/1)
2003 – Persian Majesty (8/1)

Hampton Court Stakes Trends

22/23 – Had not raced at Ascot before
20/23 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
20/23 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/23 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
12/23 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/23 – Had won over 1m2f before
9/23 – Unplaced favourites
8/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 - Ran at Epsom last time out
5/23 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No winner from stall 1 in the last 20 runnings
16 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
12 of the last 19 winners came from stall 5-9 (inc)

6.10 - Buckingham Palace Handicap (3yo+) 7f ITV4

Buckingham Palace Handicap Trends

10/11 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
10/11 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Had won over at least 6f before
9/11 – Returned 12/1 or bigger in the betting
9/11 – Unplaced favourites
9/11 – Had run at Ascot before
9/11 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/11 – Rated between 92-99
7/11 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
6/11 – Had 5+ wins before
5/11 – Bred in Ireland
2/11 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of the last 6)
2/11 – Came from stall 29
2/11 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
The last 6 winners were aged 4
Since 2002 only 2 winners aged 7+
7 of the last 8 winners from stalls 24+
2025: Never So Brave (4/1 fav), Andrew Balding, Oisin Murphy

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2026 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Four (Fri 19th June)

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2026 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 16th to Sat 20 June 2026) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day four on Friday 19th June 2026.

Royal Ascot Trends Day Four – Friday 19th June 2026

2.30 - Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f ITV

Albany Stakes Past Winners

2025 – Venetian Sun (7/1)
2024 – Fairy Godmother (15/8 fav)
2023 – Porta Fortuna (5/1)
2022 – Meditate (5/2)
2021 – Sandrine (16/1)
2020 – Dandalla (13/2)
2019 – Daahyeh (4/1 fav)
2018 – Main Edition (7/1)
2017 – Different League (20/1)
2016 – Brave Anna (16/1)
2015 – Illuminate (4/1 fav)
2014 – Cursory Glance (14/1)
2013 – Kiyoshi (8/1)
2012 – Newfangled (7/4 fav)
2011 – Samitar (16/1)
2010 – Memory (15/2)
2009 – Habaayib (16/1)
2008 – Cuis Ghaire (8/11 fav)
2007 – Nijoom Dubai (50/1)
2006 - Sander Camillo (4/1 fav)
2005 – La Chunga (10/1)
2004 – Jewel In The Sand (10/1)
2003 – Silca’s Gift (5/1)

Albany Stakes Key Trends

24/24 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs
24/24 – Never raced at Ascot before
23/24 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
20/24 – Won their previous race
18/24 – Won by either a Feb or Mar foal
16/24 – Placed favourites
12/24 – Previous winner over 6f
10/24 – Returned a double-figure price
7/24 – Winning favourites
5/24 – Won by trainers Channon (2) or Hannon (3)
3/24 – Ran at Sandown last time
2/24 – Trained by Karl Burke (2 of the last 6)
2/24 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 12)
Jockey Jamie Spencer has won the race 4 times
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times (2 of the last 4)
Jockey Ryan Moore has won the race 3 times (2 of the last 4)
16 of the last 22 winners came from double-figure stalls
12 of the last 21 winners came from stalls 11-15 (inc)

 

3.05 - Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo) 6f ITV

Commonwealth Cup Recent Winners

2025 – Time For Sandals (25/1)
2024 – Inisherin (9/4 fav)
2023 – Shaquille (9/1)
2022 – Perfect Power (7/2 jfav)
2021 – Campanelle (5/1)
2020 – Golden Horde (5/1)
2019 – Advertise (8/1)
2018 - Eqtidaar (12/1)
2017 - Caravaggio (5/6 fav)
2016 - Quiet Reflection (7/4 fav)
2015 - Muhaarar (10/1)

Commonwealth Cup Trends

11/11 – Won over 6f before
9/11 – Drawn 8 or lower
8/11 – Had run at Ascot before
7/11 – Won 3+ times before
7/11 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
4/11 – Rated 117 or higher
4/11 – Winning favourite
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Won by a filly (Quiet Reflection, Campanelle, Time For Sandals)
2/11 – Came from stall 8
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race once (Caravaggio, 2017)

3.40 - Duke of Edinburgh Stakes Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV

Duke of Edinburgh Past Winners

2025 – Ethical Diamond (3/1 fav)
2024 – Crystal Black (11/1)
2023 – Okita Soushi (9/1)
2022 – Candleford (11/2)
2021 – Quickthorn (7/2 fav)
2020 – Scarlet Dragon (33/1)
2019 – Baghdad (7/2 fav)
2018 – Dash Of Spice (7/2 fav)
2017 – Rare Rhythm (20/1)
2016 – Kinema (8/1)
2015 – Arab Dawn (6/1 jfav)
2014 – Arab Spring (11/4 fav)
2013 – Opinion (8/1)
2012 – Camborne (11/2 fav)
2011 – Fox Hunt (12/1)
2010 – Cill Rialaig (16/1)
2009 – Drill Sergeant (14/1)
2008 – Sugar Ray (8/1)
2007 – Pevensey (8/1)
2006 – Young Mick (28/1)
2005 – Notable Guest (4/1)
2004 – Wunderwood (15/2)
2003 – Waverley (14/1)

Duke of Edinburgh Key Trends

21/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
21/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
21/23 – Had at least 2 previous career wins to their name
19/23 – Carried 9-0 or more
16/23 – Placed last time out
15/23 – Had won over 1m4f before
15/23 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
12/23 – Had run at Ascot before
9/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/23 – Trained by Hughie Morrison (4) or the Johnston (3) yard
7/23 – Ran at either York or Epsom last time (inc 7 of last 13 winners)
7/23 – Unplaced favourites
6/23 – Ran at Newmarket last time
6/23 – Winning favourites
16 of the last 21 winners came from a double-figure stall
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race

4.20 - Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m ITV

Coronation Stakes Past Winners

2025 – Cercene (33/1)
2024 – Porta Fortuna (7/2)
2023 – Tahiyra (8/13 fav)
2022 – Inspiral (15/8 fav)
2021 – Alcohol Free (11/2)
2020 – Alpine Star (9/2)
2019 – Watch Me (20/1)
2018 – Alpha Centauri (11/4 fav)
2017 – Winter (4/9 fav)
2016 – Qemah (6/1)
2015 – Ervedya (3/1)
2014 – Rizeena (11/2)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/2 jfav)
2012 – Fallen For You (12/1)
2011 – Immortal Verse (8/1)
2010 – Lillie Langtry (7/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (2/1 fav)
2008 – Lush Lashes (5/1)
2007 – Indian Ink (8/1)
2006 – Nannina (6/1 jfav)
2005 – Maids Causeway (9/2)
2004 – Attraction (6/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (4/7 fav)
2002 – Sophisticat (11/2)

Coronation Stakes Recent Trends

23/24 – Had won over at least 7f before
21/24 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
18/24 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
18/24 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 previously
15/24 – Had won over at least a 1 mile before
11/24 – Ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas
10/24 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
9/24 – Had run at Ascot before (3 winners)
8/24 – Unplaced last time out
7/24 – Ran in that season’s Irish 1,000 Guineas
3/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/24 – Trained by John Gosden
2/24 – Trained by Jessica Harrington (2 of the last 8)
16 of the last 19 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
1 winner from stall 1 in the last 20 runnings
15 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
11 of the last 20 winners were non UK-trained – French (5), Irish (7)
The Aga Khan IV has won 2 of the last 11

5.00 - Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) 1m ITV

Sandringham Handicap Recent Winners

2025 – Never Let Go (22/1)
2024 – Soprano (14/1)
2023 – Coppice (6/1 jfav)
2022 – Heredia (7/2 fav)
2021 – Create Belief (6/1)
2020 – Onassis (33/1)
2019 – Thanks Be (33/1)
2018 – Agrotera (11/2 fav)
2017 – Con Te Partiro (20/1)
2016 – Persuasive (11/4 fav)
2015 – Osaila (13/2)
2014 – Muteela (9/2 fav)
2013 – Annecdote (11/1)
2012 – Duntle (4/1 fav)
2011 – Rhythm Of Light (8/1)
2010 – Timepiece (5/1)
2009 – Moneycantbuymelove (9/2 fav)
2008 – Festivale (10/1)
2007 – Barshiba (16/1)
2006 – Red Evie (5/1 co-fav)
2005 – Beautyandthebeast (9/2)
2004 – Celtic Heroine (11/1)
2003 – Hold To Ransom (11/1)
2002 – Tashawak (12/1)

Sandringham Handicap Trends

20/24 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
19/24 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
17/24 – Had never run at Ascot before
18/24 – Had won over at least 7f before
18/24 – Placed in their previous race
16/24 – Carried 8-10 or more
15/24 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
12/24 – Won their last race
11/24 – Returned a double-figure price
9/24 – Had exactly 3 runs already that season
8/24 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
4/24 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 11+
Charlie Fellowes has trained 2 of the last 7 winners
Richard Hannon has trained 2 of the last 11 winners
John Gosden has trained 2 of the last 10 winners
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race

5.35 - King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f ITV

King Edward VII Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Amiloc (11/8 fav)
2024 – Calandagan (11/2)
2023 – King Of Steel (11/10 fav)
2022 – Changingoftheguard (11/10 fav)
2021 – Alenquer (13/8 fav)
2020 – Pyledriver (18/1)
2019 – Japan (6/4 fav)
2018 – Old Persian (9/2)
2017 – Permian (6/1)
2016 – Across The Stars (7/1)
2015 – Balios (3/1)
2014 – Eagle Top (12/1)
2013 – Hillstar (15/2)
2012 – Thomas Chippendale (9/2)
2011 – Nathaniel (11/4 fav)
2010 – Monterosso (7/2)
2009 – Father Time (9/1)
2008 – Campanologist (9/1)
2007 – Boscobel (7/1)
2006 – Papal Bull (5/4 fav)
2005 – Plea Bargain (9/2)
2004 – Five Dynasties (11/4 fav)
2003 – High Accolade (5/2 fav)

King Edward VII Stakes Key Trends

22/23 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
21/23 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the
19/23 – Had never raced at Ascot before
17/23 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/23 – Placed favourites
15/23 - Had won at least 2 previous races during their career
14/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/23 – Had already won a Listed or better class race
9/23 – Winning favourites
3/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 6)
3/23 – Trained by John Gosden
3/23 – Trained by the Johnston yard
1/23 – Only 1 French-trained winner
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 21 runnings
13 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 4-9 (inc)
17 of the last 19 winners returned 9/1 or shorter

6.10 - Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap (3yo) 5f ITV4

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Carried 9-1 or less
6/6 – Drawn 11-25
1/6 – Winning favourites
Adrestia (10/1) won this race in 2025
Pilgrim (18/1) won this race in 2024
Rhythm N Hooves (12/1) won this race in 2023
Latin Lover (5/1) won this race in 2022
Trainer Simon & Ed Crisford won this race in 2025
Trainer David and Nicola Barron won this race in 2024
Trainer Harry Eustace won this race in 2022
Trainer Karl Burke won this race in 2021
Trainer Tim Easterby won this race in 2020

 

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2026 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Five (Sat 20th June)

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2026 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 16th to Sat 20th June 2026) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day five on Saturday 20th June 2026.

Royal Ascot Trends Day Five – Saturday 20th June 2026

2.30 - Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f ITV

Norfolk Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Charles Darwin (8/13 fav)
2024 – Shareholder (12/1)
2023 – Valiant Force (150/1)
2022 - The Ridler (50/1)
2021 – Perfect Power (14/1)
2020 – The Lir Jet (9/2)
2019 – A’Ali (5/1)
2018 – Shang Shang Shang (5/1)
2017 – Sioux Nation (14/1)
2016 – Prince Of Lir (8/1)
2015 – Waterloo Bridge (12/1)
2014 – Baitha Alga (8/1)
2013 – No Nay Never (4/1)
2012 – Reckless Abandon (4/1)
2011 – Bapak Chinta (6/1)
2010 – Approve (16/1)
2009 – Radiohead (10/1)
2008 – South Central (11/4 fav)
2007 – Winker Watson (2/1 fav)
2006 – Dutch Art (11/4)
2005 – Masta Plasta (7/2)
2004 – Blue Dakota (5/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Valour (4/1)

Norfolk Stakes Trends

23/23 – Had at least 1 previous run
21/23 – Previous winners over 5f
21/23 – Had never raced at Ascot before
19/23 – Had a RPR of 105+
18/23 – Won their previous race
16/23 – Foaled in March or April
13/23 – Favourites placed
12/23 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/23 – Returned a double-figure (or triple) price
4/23 – Winning favourites
3/23 – Ran at Windsor last time out
3/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/23 – Trained by Wesley Ward
9 of the last 10 winners drawn 10 or lower
Aidan O’Brien has trained 3 of the last 11 winners (4 in total)
Richard Fahey have won 2 of the last 5 runnings
11 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc)
The Hannon yard have won the race 4 times

3.05 - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Rebel’s Romance (6/4 fav)
2024 – Isle Of Jura (16/1)
2023 – Pyledriver (7/2)
2022 – Broome (6/1)
2021 – Wonderful Tonight (5/1)
2020 – Fanny Logan (17/2)
2019 – Defoe (11/4 fav)
2018 – Crystal Ocean (4/7 fav)
2017 – Idaho (9/2)
2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

23/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
22/23 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
20/23 – Placed last time out
20/23 – Had won over 1m4f before
16/23 – Had run at Ascot before
15/23 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
15/23 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
14/23 – Aged 4 years-old (inc 12 of last 15 winners)
12/23 – Placed favourites
12/23 – Won their previous race
8/23 – Winning favourites
7/23 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
6/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4) or Johnston yard (2)
6/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
16 of the last 20 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
14 of the last 20 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 20 runnings
Just one winner aged 7+ since 1923 (Rebel’s Romance, 2025)
9 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)

3.40 – QEII Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f ITV

QEII Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Naval Crown (33/1)
2024 – Khaadem (14/1)
2023 – Khaadem (80/1)
2022 – Naval Crown (33/1)
2021 – Dream Of Dreams (3/1 fav)
2020 – Hello Youmzain (4/1)
2019 – Blue Point (6/4 fav)
2018 – Merchant Navy (4/1)
2017 – The Tin Man (9/2)
2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 - Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

QEII Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

20/23 – Previous distance (6f) winners
20/23 – Previous Group Race winners
18/23 – Had run at Ascot before
17/23 – Aged 5 or younger
17/23 – Failed to win their last race
16/23 – Won by a UK-based yard
12/23 – Returned a double-figure price
11/23 – Unplaced favourites
6/23 – Ran in the King Charles III earlier at the meeting
5/23 – Winning favourite (joint)
2/23 – Trained by James Fanshawe
9 of the last 21 winners were Irish-bred
10 of the last 21 winners came from a low-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 21 runnings
10 of the last 21 winners returned a double-figure price
2 of the last 3 winners trained by Charles Hills
3 of the last 7 winners trained by Charlie Appleby
Ryan Moore has ridden 3 of the last 10
James Doyle has ridden 3 of the last 7

4.20 - Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f ITV

Recent Jersey Stakes Winners

2025 – Noble Champion (25/1)
2024 – Haatem (7/2)
2023 – Age Of Kings (22/1)
2022 – Noble Truth (4/1 fav)
2021 – Creative Force (5/1 jfav)
2020 – Molatham (11/2)
2019 – Space Traveller (25/1)
2018 – Expert Eye (8/1)
2017 – Le Brivido (2/1 fav)
2016 – Ribchester (7/1)
2015 – Dutch Connection (14/1)
2014 – Mustajeeb (9/2 jfav)
2013 – Gale Force Ten (9/2 fav)
2012 – Ishvana (20/1)
2011 – Strong Suit (11/1)
2010 – Rainfall (8/1)
2009 – Ouqba (12/1)
2008 – Aqlaam (13/2)
2007 – Tariq (15/2)
2006 – Jeremy (9/2)
2005 – Proclamation (7/1)
2004 – Kheleyf (6/1)
2003 – Membership (20/1)
2002 - Just James (20/1)

Jersey Stakes Trends

22/24 – Had at least 1 run already that season
20/24 – Had 4 or more career runs
15/24 – Had won over 7f before
14/24 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
12/24 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/24 – Had run at Ascot before
10/24 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
9/24 – Horses from stall 8 placed
9/24 – Unplaced favourites
9/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/24 – Won their previous race
5/24 – Winning favourites
3/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4 wins in total and 3 in the last 14)
2/23 – Trainer by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 5 runnings)
The Irish have won 4 of the last 14 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 5 of the last 18 runnings

5.00 - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f ITV

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Get It (28/1)
2024 – Unequal Love (12/1)
2023 – Saint Lawrence (22/1)
2022 – Rohaan (18/1)
2021 – Rohaan (8/1)
2020 – Hey Jonesy (18/1)
2019 – Cape Byron (7/2 fav)
2018 – Bacchus (33/1)
2017 – Out Do (25/1)
2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1) (dead-heat)

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

26/26 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
24/26 – Had no more than 4 runs that season
24/26 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
23/26 – Had won a race over 6f before
22/26 – Finished sixth or better last time out
21/26 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
17/26 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
17/26 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
16/26 – Had run at Ascot before (9 had won here)
13/26 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
8/26 – Won their previous race
5/26 – Won by the favourite
13 of the last 20 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
11 of the last 20 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
15 of the last 20 winners came from a double-figure draw
14 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure stall
11 of the last 15 runnings - the top 2 finishers both came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 4 of the last 15 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 9 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 36 winners returning a double-figure price
The Cole yard has won the race 3 times

5.35 - Golden Gates Handicap (3yo) 1m2f ITV

Just the 6 previous runnings
Quai De Bethune (12/1) won this race in 2025
Hand Of God (9/4 fav) won this race in 2024
Burdett Road (20/1) won this race in 2023
Missed the Cut (5/2 fav) won this race in 2022
Foxes Tales (13/2) won this race in 2021
Highland Chief (20/1) won this race in 2020
Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2025
Trainer Harry Charlton won this race in 2024
Trainer George Boughey won this race in 2022
Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2021
Trainer Paul and Oliver Cole won this race in 2020
5 of the last 6 winners came between stalls 13-17 (inc)

6.10 - Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y ITV4

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Sober (4/5 fav)
2024 – Uxmal (2/1 fav)
2023 – Dawn Rising (2/1 fav)
2022 – Stratum (10/1)
2021 – Stratum (4/1)
2020 – Who Dares Wins (Evs fav)
2019 – Cleonte (7/2)
2018 – Pallasator (11/2)
2017 – Oriental Fox (10/1)
2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

18/23 – Finished unplaced last time out
15/23 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
13/23 – Had run at Ascot before
13/23 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
10/23 – Won by a NH yard
10/23 – Irish-trained winners
7/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (6 of last 16)
4/23 – Trained by Willie Mullins (5 of last 14)
2/23 – Trained by the Johnston yard (2 of last 11)
2/23 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 13)
2/23 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (2 of last 10)
2/23 – Trained by Joseph O’Brien (2 of the last 3)
15 of the last 20 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
13 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
12 of the last 19 winners came from a double-figure stall

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Royal Ascot 2026: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

It's Gold Cup day, or Ladies' Day - or even Thursday, or Day 3. The hump day of Royal Ascot features the showcase event, the Gold Cup, a Group 1 run over two and a half miles. There is, of course, a further trio of top class shermozzles either side of that blockbuster, so let's get to it...

 

Notes: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Friday trends page here.

 

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(*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).

 

Going: Good to Firm

Goingstick:
Stands side: 8.8
Centre: 8.7
Far side: 8.7
Round: 7.5

Soil Moisture: 41%, readings taken on Thursday at 8.30am.

Rails:
The rail on the round course is now at full width everywhere. Providing fresh ground today from 9f out to the Home straight

Stalls:
Straight Course: Centre

Round Course: Inside

 

2.30 THE CHESHAM STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

In a change to the running order, the Chesham appears as the first race of the Ladies' Day card, a trappy seven-furlong juvenile heat for Listed honours.

The Chesham cheat code appears to be thus: either a once-raced Aidan that got beat, or one of the top three unbeaten-in-one horses in the market. That would have got you nine of the last 11 winners, one of the other pair being the unbackable Holloway Boy on debut and the other the dual winner Pinatubo. Those winners included 12/1 Snellen and 14/1 Suits You.

Taking that approach aligns quite well with the market, the nominated APO'B runner Aix La Chapelle heading the field. He was easy enough to back when sent off 4/1 on his debut (7f, good to yielding) a fortnight ago, and had plenty to do a quarter mile from home. But the further they went the more inevitable was the son of Justify's victory, eventually pulling away by a widening length and a half. He made up a good five lengths in those final two furlongs and looks the obvious one to beat granted normal improvement.

Richard Hannon sends Aperoll with a similar profile to the favourite. She, too, is a once raced winner from about a fortnight ago, though she was more handily placed when taking a Newbury novice over six and a half furlongs. A daughter of Ghaiyyath, she's a January foal and as such is entitled to a precocity edge on most of her rivals. Plenty of fillies have won the Chesham in recent times, including Bedtime Story (2024) and Snellen (2023) as well as September (2017).

Karl Burke won this race in 2022 with the unraced Holloway Boy - some feat - and he's since further advertised himself as one of the top trainers in the country, particularly when it comes to juveniles. He's represented by Revels, easy three length winner of a Redcar maiden a month ago on his sole start. The second has yet to run again but the third won by almost five lengths on his next outing. This son of Lope De Vega is, unsurprisingly perhaps, owned by a member of the Mars family - Ms L Mars, in fact - and she's another that can obviously step forward. [Proud of myself for resisting all kinds of sugar/confectionery puns there].

Time For The Moon shouted his credentials when blitzing a field of Musselburgh novices by 7½ lengths - yikes. However, that was on his second start so he's less scope to improve than the once raced brigade, and - respectfully - it was Musselburgh and the time was good but not great. Moreover, he's gone from the front in his two races so far, with only last year's winner, Humidity, managing to make all in the past decade. It's not easy to do. Still, he has credentials.

Sea Venture has had the sole start, bolting up by three lengths in a Haydock fillies' maiden four weeks, and she is another unexposed runner. The form awaits a boost, though, with none of the five runners since making the frame; that includes the second and fourth, both beaten more than five lengths on their next starts.

Another son of Justify, Nola Soul, travels across for trainer John Stack. He beat a couple of Aidan's as well as a horse called Chesham, presumably fancied at some point to wind up here; closest to him that day, however, was King Of Cloughan which runs in the Windsor Castle on Wednesday: that clearly will be a line of the merit of the form, with the third-placed horse already having won since.

The most expensive horse in the field is an Amo-owned Charlie Johnston-trained Frankel colt called Pikachu. Named after the cute little pokemon, he was second on debut at Thirsk, behind the more experienced Alfred Wallace - another headed for Wednesday's Windsor Castle - and should improve plenty for that. He's a place player at least.

 

Suggestion: Aidan won this in 2024, 2021, 2020, 2017 and 2016; but he didn't win in three of the past four years. Aix La Chapelle has a very good chance and I think I'll save on him; but I'm going to have a point apiece on a couple at prices, Aperoll and Revels. Not because I'm thirsty and hungry, you understand, but rather because both bring impressive unbeaten-in-one form to the party and look definite value at around 10/1.

 

Tix Pointers: Keep it Aidan on A, and unbeaten winners of one on B.

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

3.05 THE KING GEORGE V STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Rory Delargy

The most interesting angle into this 1½m handicap is the effect of the draw. Logically, on a round course, the uneducated view (including among jockeys and trainers who should know better) is that being drawn close to the inside is a positive, and being drawn very wide is a negative. The truth is very different, as results of races over course and distance, and particularly the King George V, show. Here are the results since 2021 based on stall number:

2021: 17-11-21-10
2022: 8-3-12-5
2023: 21-8-16-22
2024: 18-19-8-13
2025: 20-21-3-2

As you can see, a very wide draw is no disadvantage (such results are borne out on a wider scale) and while those drawn low can and do get involved, they are the ones who tend to require a bit of luck in the run. When the field fans out in the straight, those who come widest tend to end up on the quicker ground and when races are run at a strong gallop as they usually are, those coming late and wide are at an advantage. 2022 was a year where the pace slackened mid-race, favouring those who were well positioned at that point, but it’s a rarity for pace to drop in that way with plenty usually keen to press on.

The pace map suggests that low-drawn horses should dominate the early stages but because those who want to lead are drawn close together, there must also be a decent chance that they get involved in a battle for primacy that produces some overly strong early fractions. Those on the front end can enhance their chances by dapping on the brakes at that point as a relentless gallop will play to the hold-up horses, but predicting mid-race tactics is almost impossible in advance and I’m relying on the pace map which predicts the gallop will be strong.

 

 

A strong pace isn’t just an indicator of where in the field the winner might emerge, but confirms that whatever horse wins will have had to show stamina for the trip; on that basis, I’d be keen to exclude those who appear best at up to 1¼m.  A key trial for this is the London Gold Cup at Newbury, which this year saw Lost Boys beat Sahara King and Tierra Del Toro. That was over 1¼m and I thought Tierra Del Toro was the one of the principals who would most benefit from the extra quarter mile here, as he took time to hit top gear before staying on best of all in the closing stages. He was without a prep run for that valuable contest, so I expect him to improve a little more for that first outing of the season, and while I’d prefer him to be drawn wider, stall 10 looks a good spot to stalk the leaders while keeping out of trouble. Ralph Beckett’s Lope de Vega gelding is untried at the trip and his half-brother Alcaraz has won only at 1¼m, but their dam is a full-sister to dual Arc winner Treve, which gives plenty of confidence that he will relish 1½m.

Cannes is one who looks sure to benefit from a test of stamina having landed a decent maiden over the trip at Leopardstown last month. That form looked good at the time and has been franked by wins for the third and fourth placed horses since (second yet to race again), while Cannes is likely to do better still as his stamina is drawn out in a well-run race, his dam being a half-sister to Mojo Star, who was runner-up in the Derby, St Leger and the Gold Cup here. I don’t think the Leopardstown contest got to the bottom of Cannes and he remains completely unexposed. Joseph O’Brien had his handicap record at Royal Ascot questioned at the start of the week, but saddling the 1-2 in the Ascot Stakes answered such criticism in resounding fashion. Stall 21 is a cracking position based on recent results of this race and he should have the race run to suit.

 

Suggestion:  1pt e/w Tierra del Toro @ 8/1 (Bet365, Hills – 5 places); 1pt e/w Cannes @ 11/1 (general – 5 places)

 

Tix Pointers: High draws are where it's been at. One day it won't go that way, but usually that's the counter-intuitive route in Royal Ascot handicaps over 1m4f.

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

 

3.40 THE RIBBLESDALE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by David Massey

John & Thady Gosden’s Legacy Link seemingly holds all the aces here. Her dam is Frankel’s full sister, and this filly is already building a little legacy (pardon the wordplay) of her own, still looking far from the finished project when winning the Musidora at York, outbattling the smoother-travelling Felicitas; and then her second in the Oaks to Thundering On, where she saw out the mile and a half well enough, another step forward.

She is, on form, the one to beat. But look at the prices of the last five winners; 7-1, 12-1, 13-2, 11-4, 18-1. Not a favourite in sight, and we’ve seen the likes of Kalpana, Al Asifah and Noon Star, good fillies all, turned over after previous good runs in Musidoras, Pretty Pollys and Oaks's. Yes, it’s been a bit of a favourites' graveyard recently, and that gives you hope if you’re taking her on.

Gilded Prize has been made second favourite by the books but it’s hard to see what that's based on. Yes, she was impressive enough when winning a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud back in April; but that form would need improving on, and she looked a bit on the slow side when easily brushed aside at Longchamp last time. This step up in trip might help, but all in all she looks short enough.

Earth Shot is improving for William Haggas and her head second to Inis Mor in the Height Of Fashion at Goodwood looks better after the winner finished third in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly last weekend, a very good run. On the bare form she has a lot to find, but she’s going the right way and her pedigree offers plenty of hope she’ll improve again for moving up in trip, the dam a winner at a mile and three-quarters. I like her profile and she is on my shortlist.

Aidan O’Brien has won this for the last three years with lesser fancied fillies, and Composing fits the bill as far as that profile is concerned. She’s getting a pair of blinkers to try and get her back on track, and that did the trick for Port Fairy a couple of years ago when O’Brien equipped her with a first-time visor. Impressive when rattling off a hat-trick last summer, including in G2 and G3 company, she appears to have lost her way this year; but her last of six at Longchamp last time wasn’t a bad effort strictly on the figures, and given she’s looked a bit short on gears this mile and a half could help. I can’t quite bring myself to put the red pen through her, given her trainer's recent record in the race. I think she might keep drifting and if there’s some 20-1 around on the day, I can see myself having a small win-only bet.

I think, if there’s going to be an upset, then Ralph Beckett’s Lady Roisia might be the one to supply it. If there’s one horse that’s almost cast-iron to be guaranteed to appreciate a step up to twelve furlongs then it’s her: the dam was Oaks winner Talent (also trained by Beckett) and there’s stamina on the sire’s side, too. Badly in need of her first run of the season at Newbury when third to Esna, she’ll strip a lot fitter for that here and I liked her physically when she won at Nottingham at the back end of last year. In a race that keeps throwing up little surprises, let’s hope she’s the latest in that line; at 20-1, I make her the each-way bet here.

Suggestion: Try Lady Roisia each way at 20/1

 

Tix Pointers: Aidan and Team Gosden have won ten of the last dozen renewals. They were unplaced in the other two though, so maybe leave a trailing leg?

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

 

4.15 THE GOLD CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

The Gold Cup is historically the centrepiece of the entire Royal Ascot meeting, and chronologically precisely that fulcrum, with 17 races before and the same number after. It might be that races like the St James's Palace Stakes have become a little more fashionable with speed admired over resolve these days, but this is always a compelling watch and frequently the province of the returning champ - who doesn't love that?

This century has given us the brilliant four-time winner Yeats, triple scorer Stradivarius, and dual champs Royal Rebel and Kyprios. Where better to begin, then, than with the defending Gold Cup hero Trawlerman? It's fair to say that I was a little unkind to him in the aftermath of last year's Gold Cup, opining that a seven-year-old couldn't be improving and that he'd been given a very soft time of it on the front end that day.

While there was some truth in my brickbats, Trawlerman went unbeaten in two further races last term, the G2 Lonsdale Cup and the G1 Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. A feature of his wins has been a mid-race injection of pace and then even finishing fractions: in plain English, he gets his rivals out of their comfort zone early and then keeps them uncomfortable.

It's probably fair to say that it was far from a vintage renewal last year, and indeed that the staying crop was below par as a whole. That counts against the dependable but (relatively) limited Sweet William, stablemate of Trawlerman, who possibly doesn't quite stay this far either. He did win the Doncaster Cup over 2m2f and kicked off 2026 with a win in the Sagaro here over two miles. A very likeable chap, he's not on my mind for this.

Of the other golden oldies, Dubai Future stayed on into a never dangerous 3rd a year ago and he's 50/1; he will presumably again be ridden to pick up pieces. And Al Nayyir has been consistent, mainly in defeat and usually at slightly below top class.

Joseph O'Brien showed his talents with stayers on the flat on Tuesday when saddling a 1-2 over the course and distance in the Ascot Stakes, so his Al Riffa is worth a second glance. Now six, he was a Group 1 winner in Germany in 2024, and he doubled his top tier tally when bagging last year's Irish St Leger over 1m6f. Since then, he's been racking up the Avios (and almost £300,000 in prizemoney), with good runs in defeat in Australia, Hong Kong, Dubai and France. This will be a half mile trip increase and he's not certain to stay, but he does bring a level of form few of his rivals can boast.

It's been quite the journey for Caballo De Mar, beaten 15 lengths in a novice stakes this week two years ago - to be fair, the winner was Ombudsman! - and a seven-race maiden before breaking his duck, off 64, in an Ayr handicap in September 2024. What fun connections have had since, as this unfashionably bred and cheaply bought son of Phoenix Of Spain has totted up nine wins via that starter at Ayr, then Southwell four times on the bounce (!), Haydock, Dortmund and Longchamp twice - both Group 1's. Additionally, he ran second in the Chester Cup, the Copper Horse Stakes here last year, the Dubai Gold Cup and in Sweet William's Sagaro. Wow. I do have a niggle that some of those overseas wins were a little below the level needed here, and I suspect Al Riffa will reverse the French form from last time if he sees out the extra yardage.

The other new kids on the block and, aged four with a bit more improvement potentially, are Rahiebb and Scandinavia. Rahiebb is trained by Roger Varian and, after a three-year-old season of knocking on the door - most notably when a neck second to Scandinavia in the St Leger - the more mature four-year-old model was an unequivocal winner of the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup in mid-May. That was 1m6f and he'll go almost a full Wokingham further here, which is the major question mark. His late sectionals certainly lend credence to the idea that he will stay but it's a risk that needs factoring into his price.

Rahiebb's old rival Scandinavia comes here on a five match unbeaten run that started in the G3 Bahrain Trophy last July and has taken in the Goodwood Cup, the St Leger (Doncaster), the Vintage Crop (Navan) and the Saval Beg at Leopardstown. As a result of that nap hand he's a very short price here, but he's not actually stepped forward on his level of form across that quintet of scores. He definitely looks under-priced to me and I'm taking him on, for all that he obviously has a sexy knack of getting the job done.

In the end, it looks a three-horse go between the top trio in the market: Scandinavia, Rahiebb and Trawlerman. Although he still sets the standard, my feeling is that Trawlerman, on seasonal bow and now aged eight, is vulnerable to the more progressive four-year-olds. There was only a neck between Scandinavia and Rahiebb in the St Leger last autumn, the latter finishing well and just failing to get up. With both of them needing to prove they stay this far, the value call is definitely Rahiebb.

I expect that Al Riffa could get into the first four if he stays, and maybe onto the podium. He's clear best of the rest for me.

Suggestion: Back Rahiebb to win at 4/1. Have a look at Al Riffa e/w at 10/1.

 

Tix Pointers: Another Aidan/Gosden benefit. Probably keeping it simple here as plenty of problems to follow...

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

 

4.50 THE BRITANNIA STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby

I shared the historic draw and pace data in yesterday’s Royal Hunt Cup preview, so if you want to reference that before having a bet, you’ll find it in the Day Two preview article here.

As I am writing this before Wednesday’s racing begins, I have less information than you’ll have by the time you read this. But on Tuesday it definitely looked as though high draws were advantageous on the straight course; it will be interesting to see if that changes on Wednesday.

The spread of the early pace could have an impact on any potential draw bias here, so the pace map should be insightful.



The pace is pretty evenly spread across the course - and there looks to be lots of it! Given the straight course tends to favour patient rides anyway, this really could be a race where you want to be held up out back and played late.

It goes without saying that any amount of these horses could be well ahead of their marks, such is the nature of these big field 3yo handicaps where pretty much every runner is lightly raced. This is more of a race to follow going forward, rather than to bet on, but that doesn’t mean we can’t back the winner as well!

There are two horses that I like in this one.

My more favoured pick would be Outback Heat, who was well backed following the final decs on Tuesday. He won a course and distance handicap on his most recent start, coming from last to first. Winning that race before landing the Britannia Stakes is a path this trainer took with Docklands back in 2023 and Harry Eustace also saddled the runner up in this race last year (La Botte).

After just three starts, Outback Heat is entitled to improve as much as anything in this field and he beat the subsequent Silver Bowl winner (who reopposes here on worse terms) in that race, alongside some other runners who have placed since in good races.

He’s drawn in 18, which might be a bit closer to the middle than ideal, but it does give him the obvious option of switching to the near side. My main question mark is Kaiya Fraser keeping the ride. He’s been on board for all three runs so far, so at least knows the horse well, but I’d have preferred one of the top jockeys.

The other one who catches my eye is Wechaad for Roger Varian. He’s a bit more exposed than some of these, with six runs under his belt, and whilst I’m on the negatives, maybe he wants a bit more cut in the ground.

He caught the eye on seasonal reappearance at Goodwood though, in a race that is often a good guide for this (2021 winner Perotto took the same route), where he not only did best of those held up but he did best of the high draws, too. Any draw/pace students out there will know how detrimental stall 15 is over 7f at Goodwood, so that effort can be massively marked up.

He’s drawn in stall 28, whereas many of the market fancies appear to be low drawn. If the higher drawn horses are at an advantage, like I think they could be, then there should be some really nice value to be had.

Suggestion: Try each way Outback Heat at 11/1, and Wechaad at 9/1.

 

Tix Pointers: One of the top four in the market has usually won this, but a couple of wacky placepot results involved the joint fifth and joint seventh in the markets being the highest betting rank placed horse. Spread out!

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

 

5.35 THE HAMPTON COURT STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

A typical Hampton Court winner has:
 - yet to win at Group level (15 of the last 15 winners)
 - an official rating of 103+ (14/15)
 - raced 3-7 times in their career (14/15)
 - came from the top 4 in the betting (13/15)
 - returned less than 8/1 (14/15)
13 of the last 15 winners had won at least one of their last three starts and had finished top 6 in all of those three starts (14/15).
3 of the last 15 winners last raced at Epsom (from just 9 such runners).
In the last 15 years, all 22 runners that had their last start in a class 3-5 race, all 15 horses that last ran in the 2000 Guineas, all 12 horses that last ran in a Group 2 and all 6 horses that last ran on the all weather have been beaten.

Traditionally this is a race for those who missed the Derby due to stamina doubts or those that did run in the Derby but didn't stay. The trends are pretty strong and leave us looking at easy Listed winner Endorsement or Lingfield Derby Trial flop Maho Bay.

By Dubawi out of a Dandy Man mare, Maho Bay is probably not bred to stay, especially since everything in his pedigree ran (well) at up to a mile. He'd looked good when taking a Newmarket novice over ten furlongs in handsome style but stopped quickly over the Derby trip in the Lingfield trial. This step down will certainly suit but he needs to find more than his demonstrated level of form.

The form of Endorsement is rock solid having run a 1/2 length second to Derby winner Christmas Day and filling the same position by the same margin behind Derby third James J Braddock in two of the top Irish Derby Trials ealier in the Spring. He was last seen trouncing his field in a 12f Listed contest by over 7 lengths and is another favourite who has the level required to win this Group 3 with the only question to answer being whether he can perform just as well back over 10f.

Suggestion: Back Endorsement at 9/4

 

 

Tix Pointers: Every one of the last 13 winners started in the first four in the betting. Only one of the last eight winners also won last time out. So a fancied runner that perhaps doesn't look like one?

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

6.10 THE BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

This race was taken off the calendar in 2015 but reinstated in 2020. Hence in terms of trends, I am looking at the last ten renewals, which cover 2011 to 2014 and 2020 to 2025.

Two wins for horses from the top four of the betting, with both being favourite (last two years). Five winners priced between 12/1 and 18/1; the other three were 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1.

4yos have won six of the last ten (60%) from 40% of the total runners. 4yos do have the best placed record (roughly double compared with the other age groups combined).

7yos and older have a poor record win 0 wins and just 5 places from 45 runners.

Seven of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter on their most recent start. This equates to 70% of the winners from just 42% of the total runners.

 

Draw

The number of runners each year has fluctuated between 23 and 29 so for my draw analysis I am using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail.  Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.

Looking at the last ten renewals, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account, so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

 

As the numbers show horses drawn within ten stalls of the stands’ rail have had a significant edge in this race over the past ten years. Indeed, last year’s race saw a huge draw bias as the race result below shows:

 

 

Now, draw bias can come and go at the Royal meeting, but personally a middle to higher draw would be my preference in this race unless the ground came up soft.

 

Run Style

In terms of run style 29 of the 40 win/placed runners over the last ten renewals were held up or raced mid division. Hold up horses have the best record when we analyse the PRBs hitting 0.58. Generally, a horse coming off the pace would be preferred.

 

 

For a field this size there is a surprising lack of genuine front runners. River King looks the most likely from 14, but it will be interesting to see therefore how quickly they go early.

With a maximum field declared here are my thoughts on a few of them.

Defence Minister – has been unlucky with the draw several times in the past with a prime example being his most recent race, over course and distance. There he was drawn on the wrong side, finishing third of his group but 17th overall. The two runners in his group that finished in front of him both ran well next time so his run was far better than the finishing position suggested. However, based on recent renewals of this race, he could have been unlucky with the draw again as he has a low berth in 8.

Hickory – definitely has age against him in terms of past trends for this race, but with two wins and five placed runs at Ascot he clearly loves it here. Having said that he was disappointing over C&D first time up this season. Was not suited by the run of the race at Sandown last time as it was dominated by horses that were up with the pace that day. Will need a career best to win, but may be worth a look in markets offering lots of places. Has the right type of run style and he is drawn in the middle so has options.

Cosi Bello – Lightly raced four-year-old with just five career starts (three wins, one second, one fourth). Up 2lbs for his seasonal debut win at Haydock in May after which trainer Charlie Fellowes said, "the Buckingham Palace Stakes is the obvious target. I think we’ll go straight there and keep him fresh. The stiff seven will suit him perfectly." Tends to race from off the pace which should be a plus, and he is drawn in 26.

Great Acclaim – Has raced over course and distance three times including when second of 28 last time out. He has been raised two pounds for that effort but his mark of 100 looks fair. His other two runs over course and distance also saw good efforts with another big field second and a 4th of 15. He has a very consistent profile and if excluding his 2yo career he has won six and been placed seven times from 24 starts. Could be well drawn in 23.

The Wizard Of Eye – Beat Great Acclaim over course and distance last time which was his second track/trip success. Raised five pounds for that win and would need a career best at the age of seven to win this. Could be ideally drawn though in 29.

Dance In The Storm – Has had seven runs on the turf with two wins and two placed efforts. Won first time up this year at Chepstow before disappointing at Epsom on Oaks day when fifth of 16. Epsom might not have suited her and if we can forgive that run then she should be there or thereabouts. Looks the best of the very low drawn runners.

River King – Not been out of the first three in five turf starts and has a PRB of 0.91. Comfortable winner from the front at Newbury LTO over 1 mile and likely to press on early here dropped a furlong. It’s hard to win from the front at Ascot but has a clear form chance. Drawn 14.

 

Suggestion: The draw could play a big part here again, but we can never be 100 per cent sure how that will pan out. In such a big field I am happy to try three against the field. I’m taking 20/1 Great Acclaim and 8/1 Cosi Bello from the higher draws and from the lower draws I will take a bit of a flyer on 25/1 Defence Minister as I have always been a fan of negative draw bias.

 

And that's a wrap for Ladies' Day. It doesn't get any easier, does it? But it should be another cracking day of sport, and one good winner will apologise for many other wagering missteps.

Stay lucky!

Matt

 

 

 

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