OK, guys, my first crack at the new Tix Picks feature, so bear with me!

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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pots are at Wolverhampton, so let's head there...

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Wolverhampton, placepot

Leg 1: A 5-runner, Class 5 nursery kicks the meeting off with Greek Gift and Claim To Glory being the only two runners with any discernible form. It's probably an early cop out, but I'll just take both of these for now.

Leg 2: Another 5-runner affair for 2yr olds makes for a tough start to the meeting, but the obvious pick for me is Target Man. He was only beaten by a neck on debut last time out and now drops in class. Likely to try and win the race from the front, which is a good tactic here at Wolverhampton. He's going to be a banker pick for me and probably 90-odd% of players!

Leg 3: A couple more runners in this one and older horses with more 'form' to work with. Most of the field are down in class and Bowman brings steady consistent top-three form to the table. Starshiba has made the frame twice from four runs here and has won over course and distance. Mr Squires won here in June and is the pace angle in the race...

... and if allowed an easy lead, he could well have a top-2 finish here and I'll take him and Bowman as my two against the field. I know Starshiba is popular in the market, but hasn't won a race for nearly nine months and has only made the frame once during his current run of nine defeats.

Leg 4: A better looking contest to work with here with 10 runners contesting this 1m½f, Class 4 handicap with three horses standing out on the Instant Expert place stats...

...all three tend to run in mid-division or further forward which is a bonus, as hold-up horses tend to fare worst over this track/trip. Stalls 4 to 7 score best on the PRB...

...so Photon becomes a pick here, despite still being a maiden after 11 races. In fairness he has been a runner-up in three of his last five on the A/W and a similar effort here will do for us. Elsewhere, King of Scotia is the predicted front-runner and he has won two of his last four and has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last seven outings. Has lost his last two on unsuitably quick ground but won over a mile at Lingfield on his last A/W outing. I'd hope he could make the frame here too.

Leg 5: An interesting seven-runner contest featuring five course and distance winners. Roaring Ralph, Chalk Mountain and Surprise Picture all won LTO in the last week, but the latter is up in class. Consistent placer (3322 in his last four) Ultramarine drops in class and these four are the ones in my mind here on form. Three of these four also standout on Instant Expert...

...and Ultramarine might be dangerously weighted. If we then look at the pace/draw heat map...

...it's Roaring Ralph and Surprise Picture from the original quartet that seem best positioned. Roaring Ralph now has to be a pick, but I think I'd also take Chalk Mountain, Surprise Picture and Ultramarine.

Leg 6: Our final race is another 7f affair, but we've ten 3 yr olds to choose from with Grecian God our only LTO winner. Diligent Henry was a runner-up, but only Amroon and Blacklion have won any of their last seven outings. Instant Expert also steers us towards Grecian God and Amroon...

...but the former might be poorly drawn out widest of the ten runners...

Both of these runners have previously won over course and distance and I'm keeping both onside here, although I do prefer Amroon to Grecian God.

So to summarise, I've identified the following as runners of interest...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 2

Leg 2: horse 2

Leg 3: horses 1 & 6

Leg 4: horses 1 & 8

Leg 5: horses 1, 2, 4 & 6

Leg 6: horses 3 & 5

I'll now hold my hands up and admit that I've not yet got my head around the ABC methodology, I'll need to pick Matt's brains, but if you're up to speed already or just want to do a simple 64-line perm from my picks...

...Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

Cheers,
Chris

I'm 'on the road' tomorrow, so Matt will cover you for Tuesday's picks and I'll be back with you on Wednesday morning. The plan moving forwards is that I'll have the piece ready to go 'live' by around 10am on the day of the races, but I'm going to be in Indonesia for the next four weeks, so things might move around a little until I get home.

A losing day on Friday, stakes of £18 returning only £4.33 after a leg 2 bomb out left just one 'C' ticket (below) remaining. That's often the case, of course, and on we go.

 

Recap: What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here. You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a fat Scoop 6 pool for the ultra-brave and deep-pocketed, plus a £100,000 guaranteed placepot at Haydock.

 

 

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Kempton, placepot

Really, really competitive fare today and no obvious banker safe havens at the three big meetings. There's a £50,000 guaranteed pool at Kempton as well as the £100k guarantee at Haydock and I'll roll the dice on the Sunbury beaches.

Leg 1: A 2yo Group 3 to kick off, 6f and ten runners. Draw and pace can be big factors at Kempton, as this heat map implies. It could be tricky for Jouncy to get any sort of run from the outside box and I'm against him, though his form is solid if he does find a passage. More obvious is Adrian Keatley's Symbol Of Strength, 12lb clear on official ratings and surely odds on - rather than 7/4 - if trained by a more fashionable handler. That said, he's yet to run off turf but was an excellent length third in the G2 Gimcrack last time. He has a good draw and run style for this course and is a sole 'A'.

 

Leg 2: Seven runners - ugh - for this 1m4f Group 3 and Hamish, winner of the race in 2021, is another that is well clear on official ratings. He was second in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Ascot two back but then flopped a bit in a G2 at Newmarket last time. If he comes back close to his best - at age eight, that's not a given - he'll win here. A.

Kalpana is an improving three-year-old filly and a daughter of a very interesting sire in Study Of Man. She's been second and first in Listed contests, sandwiching a bronze medal in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, and she gets a stone in age and sex allowances from the old boy Hamish. Her outside draw isn't ideal, even in a longer race and shorter field, but is mitigated by her tending to race handily in a field where not many do that (Cemhaan the only obvious other): she's on A as well in what is unimaginative play on my part.

Leg 3: The London Mile final, a 14-runner handicap at the - you guessed it - mile range. Very competitive field and again wide draws will have their work cut out as this image demonstrates:

 

The takeaway here is that if you have a double digit draw, it will be tough to get involved.

Kilt is favourite on his second handicap start and has no chinks in his armour bar experience. He is tractable in terms of run style, is drawn in stall 2, comes from the Haggas barn and the form of his two novice runs is working our brilliantly. Not so much the form of his handicap debut but we've since yet to see the only horse to finish ahead of him there and it was nearly three lengths-plus back to the rest. The first three favourites on this card could easily win.

But I want some B backup here. Valkyrian is a four-year-old that has already run 27 times - she's tough! Her last four AW spins have been 2122 and she keeps going up the handicap. It's only three days since her last run and, though I respect connections and she has a good draw/progressive profile, I'm a little wary off a very busy campaign and that recent run. She might defy both and she's reluctantly going on B, simply because four fancied runners are drawn 10, 11, 13 and 14. Vultar also goes on B, Clive Cox's runner having been 112 in three track spins and exiting trap six.

Whitcombe Rockstar is a third B despite a draw in 14. He's won over course and distance from stall 10 of 13 and stall 11 of 12, meaning he must have a turbo kick at the end of his races.

On C, I'll take those other wide lads, Talis Evolvere and Longlai as well as unnamed favourite.

Leg 4: Six go to post in a nursery handicap and coincidence players, perhaps especially Scottish ones, might enjoy the Kilt/Tilted Kilt double in consecutive races. William Knight's handicap debutant has a lot in his corner, including the masterful Neil Callan on top.

I'm not mad about Fearless Freddy's form - I might be wrong - and am swerving him; instead, I like the progressive Chesneys Charm: he needed every yard of the seven furlongs to get up on the line at Wolves last time and this extra eighth should be ideal. I also respect George Scott's handicap debut record and so Toy Soldier is on B tickets. I'll timidly lob the other trio on C.

Leg 5: A dozen runners for the London Sprint Series Final over 6f. Draw and run style are again huge considerations as you can see below:

An inside berth and/or a front-running style are important. Wide and waited with is tough, really tough. The pace horses Habooba and Radio Goo Goo both get automatic C slots at least, and I'm upgrading Habooba to B courtesy of his 9 from 10 place record in 6f all-weather races.

Favourite Heathcliff is more of a 7f horse (his distance win last time was on the more searching straight six at Newcastle) and could be done for speed in this contest; I prefer the chances of top weight Ferrous whose sand level is better than his grass one. If he can get a nice position from his inside stall he's a runner. A. Intervention was a close up sixth in this race last year having been messed about with at the start, and that's an effort that can be upgraded a touch. He's very consistent in AW sprints and has a good draw for an in-form team. B. Al Barez is another well drawn horse but he'll need the splits given his hold up style; in any case, he has a great gear change and completes the B group.

Leg 6: A trappy sextet closes with a 1m4f older horse handicap in which Enrico Caruso looks a worthy jolly for the Gosdens. The form of his handicap debut win last time has worked out well, with the second winning both times since. It was more than six further lengths back to the third, and the fouth has won a Newmarket handicap since. This longer trip should be fine, though Shoemark doesn't want to leave Enrico with too much ground to make up.

Assail was given that mission impossible closing assignment here two back, just missing the frame, and then got it done at Ascot last time over this trip. He is likely to be on the premises and is a second A play.

Wonder Legend is hard to quantify and, on balance, I'll sidestep him with two solid A's already. Harder to ignore is Night Breeze, a big improver this season and one that has been getting plenty of the Racing League prize money. He's been busy but may not be finished yet. B. Haku has some good runs at the track, usually just outside the places and that makes him a C play only along with unnamed favourite. I'll throw the filly Juana Ines on C, too: her trainer does very well on HC2 and she ran a cracker in an Ascot novice last backend and gets the tongue tie as well as the hood for the first time. Interesting.

 

*

A few chances taken, especially the banker jolly in the first. You could place lay it to insure your position if that's your thing.

 

 

 

5p units makes for a £17.60 spread this afternoon. Obviously, lots of risk, especially early, but that's the nature of the game. Good luck!

Matt

p.s. Sundays are a great day for placepots - and often for jackpots too - but it's a day off for Tix Picks. Back on Monday...

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

 

 

I was right to forecast soft ground for Salisbury yesterday. In fact, not quite right enough, because the fixture was abandoned an hour and a half before racing was scheduled to go ahead. What a shame for their big day of the year. To Friday, but first...

 

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here. You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows*

 

*Did you know we had a dark mode? It's the button top right that looks like a sun. And the 'eye' icon next to it reveals or hides your account balance when logged in.

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Ascot, placepot

It's a £50,000 guaranteed pool at Ascot today and the going is currently soft. Ascot has a great page to check going here. There is the promise of more rain on its way so I'm working on the basis of heavy which, like yesterday, could be flawed logic but offers a potential edge. Let's hope, unlike yesterday, the meeting actually goes ahead.

Leg 1: A mile on the straight track for female amateurs is a test of judgement at the best of times. On rain softened ground there could be a furlong between first and last. Experienced rider and a hold up ride on a horse handling the conditions is optimal, and that means Shaladar. His form on soft in mile handicaps is 22722, he's a hold up type and Becky Smith, one of the most competent and experienced jockeys in the race, steers. The other of interest is last year's late, late show winner, Crystal Casque, who is five pounds lower this time around and acts well on soft. Two A's and we'll hope to survive the opener. I've backed Shaladar which is another impost that one will have to overcome!

Law Supreme will go on B.

Leg 2: Godolphin has won this decent maiden with the favourite in three of the last four years, and Fifth Column - trained by the Gosdens for Team Blue - is vying for market leadership. But current jolly and the one to be with, I think, is Isambard Brunel, representing Ballydoyle and the lads. The Aidan and Ryan TJ combo is 7/12 in the past fortnight and, though the going is a niggle for a son of Justify, he's my A single. I'll add a B in the form of Fifth Column, and a couple of C's - Seaplane and Calla Lagoon.

Leg 3: Non-runners have already reduced this race to a field of seven, rarely the friend of placepotters, and I'm banking on the odds-on jolly Ballet Slippers to go one better than last time. Dubawi offspring have a very good record on soft and I hope that's not the kiss of death here. She's the first foal out of the brilliant seven-time Group 1-winning mare Magical, and is a super-interesting cross with a Darley stallion for the Coolmore squad. They need her to get the win. I will take her as my sole pick in the race and lay her cheaply for a place to insure half of my placepot stake.

Leg 4: Hamad al Jehani has made a cracking start to his career in UK, hitting the frame at 38% and winning at 17%. He saddles favourite Diego Ventura, a winner on debut last time before switching to owners Wathnan Racing. Diego was trained by Gavin Cromwell and sent off 33/1 that day, dead heating with subsequent follow up winner and Listed second Magnum Force. That form has plenty of substance and, despite the six pound penalty, he ought to nearly win again, the turf having been yielding that first day.

Fort Augustus had a very troubled start on his debut at Newmarket last time behind another Wathnan runner, Defence Minister. That one scored again yesterday and this fellow looks the main danger (of those with form). He's a B pick, and I'm shoving three on C, all of them mildly interesting today and more than that for the future: Kosometsuke, Newlyn School and Gesundheit (bless you!).

Leg 5: Three absentees here have the field down to seven again, and I'm spreading out a bit further this time in a 0-90 classified stakes. Waleefy has been in great form on much faster ground but has never encountered anything with the word soft or heavy in it. Still, as a son of Night Of Thunder, whose progeny tend to handle deeper ground, he might be fine. His form gets him the A gig, but definitely not a solo spot.

Contrast that with James Tate's runner, United Approach, whose only two wins have been on soft and good to soft turf. He's got a bit to find on bare form but is expected to handle conditions better than some. And I'm adding a third string to my A bow with Look Back Smiling. This is a race where I feel there's a chance of getting a result, and Gemma Tutty's lad is a mudlark with strong handicap form.

I'm against Thunder Blue, who may struggle on the ground, and prefer Dark Thirty to bounce back somewhat. Lord Bertie won a soft ground novice by TWELVE lengths last season; a stable switch has seen three lacklustre spins on the all-weather so far but he, too, could bounce back on the sodden surface. Both on C, along with unnamed favourite.

Leg 6: Theoryofeverything is the place to start in this final leg, a mile handicap. David O'Meara trains and this one has loads of decent soft ground form. Favourite Awaal was second in the Lincoln on heavy last year but has run only once this season, 55 days ago; he looks one to be cautious with just now, though it won't surprise if he comes right back - I'll lob him on B. O'Meara also saddles Bennetot, and Oisin rides, so he'll be popular; but he's 0-from-3 on deep ground, thumped each time.

When I'm discounting most of the horses at the top of the market I get a bit nervous, and that appears to be what's happening here. I could make a small case for Classic, and slightly more of one for standing dish Tempus; but the one I quite like is Hafeet Alain. He's a mudlark and a four-time handicap winner at a mile including twice in this grade. The one niggle is his run style: forward goers don't normally prosper on this piste. He's going on B all the same. So, too, is Navagio, another with plenty of soggy sod form and he's five pounds lower than when third in this year's Lincoln (on soft).

*

For 4p stakes, then, and using the multipliers shown below, that's an £18 play across 14 tickets. You could make the same bet to pennies for £4.50, though I always recommend changing at least a few things up.

 

 

 

It could be an early bath in either of leg 1 or 3 today - or indeed leg 2, and a slightly later dip in the tub via legs 4, 5 or 6! - but risk is the friend of placepot players. If we get it wrong today, we can go again tomorrow. What we cannot do is bankroll self-harm by putting five picks in every leg.

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

 

 

Matt