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Royal Ascot 2024: Day One Preview, Tips

Where does the time go? Barely a week ago, or so it seems, we were cheering home the winner of the Cheltenham varietal of the Gold Cup and now, actually three months later, the Ascot iteration is upon us. No fences, and no racecourse prefix - it is, simply, the Gold Cup - but that's not until Day 3/Thursday, the cornerstone of five sumptuous afternoons of equine action for for a King.

There are less overseas challengers this season, more's the pity, and some of the races look a little weaker than standard, truth be told; but those are the negatives done with. On the plus side, it's an uber competitive week of racing with a far broader array of trainers and jockeys likely to hit the limelight than was the case in mid-March for that other showcase event. And, in the Coronation Stakes, we have what looks one of the best renewals for many a year if they all, or nearly all, stand their ground. That, again, is for another day.

To Tuesday, Day One, and an overture that comprises a trio of Group 1 contests as well as the Group 2 Coventry Stakes: music to the ears, indeed.

After the success of last year's previews, where a nasty dose of the Covid lurgy necessitated a request for some assistance, I've again called in some crack writers to share the coverage of this year's Royal meeting. Specifically, I've asked six top scribes to share their thoughts on one race each per day Tuesday to Friday, leaving the seventh for me. That made for a lovely blend of styles last year, as well as some cracking winners (headlined by Gavin Priestley's excellent 33/1 shout - freely available for some time after publication - on Bradsell), and it's also an opportunity for a few of the best tipsters around to 'show and tell' their modus operandi.

As I always say when I write these mega-posts in the big meeting weeks, it's the same amount of effort that goes into the research whether the picks win or lose; so please try to keep an eye on each contributor's 'process' - how they present their case - as well as their performance in this tiny four-races-each sample.

If you like what you read, you can check out more of their work at the links provided; but, of course, this is the geegeez.co.uk Royal Ascot preview, so allow your editor to kick things off in the Queen Anne Stakes...

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes (1m, Group 1, 4yo+)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

A straight track mile Group 1 for older horses and one that has thrown its share of shocks amidst the shorties in recent years. To wit, in the last six renewals, we've had winners at 1/6 and 2/7, as well as two 33/1 bombs, most recently Triple Time last year. There was also 14/1 Lord Glitters in that list so, in the absence of anything remotely odds-on-looking, maybe we should aim for a bold start to proceedings...

Fourteen are declared, though not Inspiral, one time ante post favourite for the race. Her red, white and blue Cheveley Park Stud silks will instead by worn by Rab Havlin on Audience. The five-year-old gelded son of Iffraaj was last seen making all in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on his first attempt at a mile. Since 2011, Canford Cliffs, Frankel, Ribchester, Palace Pier and Baaeed have all completed the Lockinge-Queen Anne double but none started bigger than 11/8 for the second leg.

Audience is quite lightly raced for a five year old - just 13 starts to date - and his best form is on decent ground which, after a lot of heavy shower chat, looks like being the prevailing terrain for Tuesday. He's a front runner typically, which was how Circus Maximus got it done in 2020 under a masterful Ryan Moore ride; but, as far as I can tell, that's the only front-running winner since at least 2008. It's just very tough to lead all the way on the straight mile in a double-figure field.

One horse who managed to do that was Big Rock, a six-length winner of the QEII Stakes in a field of eleven on British Champions Day last October. The ground there was soft and he was trained by Christopher Head, who had a strike rate of 27% in France in 2023. The ground here is good and the trainer is now Maurizio Guarnieri, who has a strike rate of 7.5% in 2024 (9/119) in France. Big Rock's owner, Yeguada Centurion, under chief decision-maker Leopoldo Fernández Pujals, removed all of their horses from Head late last year, a migration that also includes Blue Rose Cen, entered later in the week.

Neither Big Rock nor Blue Rose Cen has yet come close to matching their form under Head for new handler Guarnieri, and that is a big concern. Big Rock was sixth, 15 lengths behind Audience in the Lockinge, having been sent off an 11/4 shot. It's a leap of faith to think he can reverse placings even allowing for the fact that he fluffed the start somewhat. In any case, a cleaner break would likely have resulted in him contesting the lead with Audience, an act in favour of neither of them in terms of their win prospects.

Facteur Cheval was the closest horse to Big Rock in the QEII, and his sole start since was a short head verdict in the Group 1 Dubai Turf (1m1f, good) at Meydan in March. He held several positions during the race before just getting the best of a duel in the final furlong. As mentioned, his sire Ribchester won this race, and as well as silver here last autumn, he was an unlucky second in the G1 Sussex Stakes last summer. He is a top notcher who handles most underfoot conditions, stays a straight mile well, is tractable in terms of run style, and may have improved from four to five.

Roger Varian saddles the progressive Charyn. Third in last season's St James's Palace Stakes on the round mile at the Royal meeting, he'd started to look exposed by late summer; but this season began with back-to-back scores at Doncaster and Sandown before a runner up slot behind Audience in the Lockinge. Although the form figures look good, however, there has been no breakout in his ratings: he looks a rock solid 115 (or so) horse. Maybe that will be good enough to win this year but there is also a slight niggle about his ability to handle good to firm, should it be that quick on the opening day. He's yet to race on it and, by Dark Angel, might just be better suited to a little ease.

Maljoom was a big sectional eye-catcher in the 2022 St James's Palace Stakes, as I flagged at the time. Alas, he was then not sighted for 15 months before running down the field in the G2 Joel Stakes (1m, good to firm) at Newmarket last September. On his only subsequent run, in the Queen Anne trial race at Ascot seven weeks ago, he was too keen and taken to the front before running out of gas towards the finish. A bigger field with some pace to aim at ought to see him settle better, though that '22 SJP was not a vintage renewal (though nor especially is the '24 QA).

Hayley Turner is almost as adept at riding this straight track as Jamie Spencer, and she executed the waiting tactics to perfection when bringing Docklands with the proverbial withering run to snaffle the Britannia Handicap a year ago. They almost repeated the feat in the valuable Balmoral Handicap last autumn but didn't get the clearest transit and had to settled for third of 20; that off a 10lb higher mark. This season, Docklands has run second in a pair of Listed contests, form which doesn't obviously translate to a podium finish in a Group 1. But we know the track and trip will suit, he's ground agnostic and will be given every chance; he just might not be good enough.

It's really tricky to know what to make of Dolayli. Francis-Henri Graffard's five-year-old has been running mainly on all-weather and over further in recent times and has yet to race on a quicker turf surface than good to soft. In spite of those imponderables, his form is decent: six wins from ten lifetime starts and a length fourth in the G1 Prix Ganay last time (1m1 1/2f, soft). I'd expect Mickael Barzalona to be patient with him and, if you don't believe Big Rock's official rating (I don't), then he's very little to find with the best of the rest. But this will be quite a different examination from those he's sat hitherto.

Poker Face looks relatively exposed but did get to within a length and a quarter of Charyn in a Sandown Group 2 this season, giving the winner three pounds; on that basis alone, a price disparity of 20/1 vs 3/1 might be wrong, though it's more an argument against Charyn's price than for Poker Face's in my book. PF was another far back in the Lockinge though he did win a mile Group 2 at Longchamp last September.

We're into the long grass now, where Brave Emperor was progressing nicely, from a German G3 to an Italian G2 to a valuable Qatari stakes race. The Hong Kong Champions Mile came next, and he was well beaten - eminently forgivable - before a slightly more difficult to excuse tail end finish in the Ganay. He wasn't beaten far there and may not get nine furlongs. Archie Watson is to be noted at the Royal meeting, with five winners to his name already, including three last year; but it's not easy to see this one getting his week off to a flyer.

Third in last year's 2000 Guineas, Royal Scotsman failed to back that effort up in three subsequent Group 1 races in 2023. Dropped to Group 3 level last time, he made all in the Diomed Stakes at Epsom. His run style is normally held up, however, and I expect Jamie Spencer will revert to type - for horse and rider - here. With plenty of Group placed form as a juvenile as well, he's not completely out of the question.

Like Docklands, Witch Hunter was a handicap winner at Royal Ascot 2023, in his case over seven furlongs in the Buckingham Palace Stakes. That man Spencer did the steering on the 50/1 shot then but he's deserted the Richard Hannon-trained five-year-old in favour of Royal Scotsman.

Karl Burke sends Flight Plan, winner of a Leopardstown Group 2 (1m, good) on Irish Champions Weekend. This chap was thumped on seasonal debut in the Lockinge before a slightly more hopeful performance when 3rd in a G3 over an inadequate seven furlongs. Upped to a mile here, he should do better; but he will have to do a good bit better.

And what of Cairo? He was 2nd in the Irish 2000 Guineas last spring when trained by Aidan O'Brien; but his best efforts since were a neck defeat to Brave Emperor in Doha and, since changing to the Alice Haynes yard, 2nd in a Listed race over a mile and a furlong at Leopardstown last time. He was unlucky in running there, without suggesting it would have changed the result, and he could conceivably travel well through the first half of the race. He has a good bit to find on the figures though.

And rounding out the field is Hi Royal. My first instinct was to strike a line through this fella's chance, but then a couple of things caught my eye. Firstly, he's a four-year-old and remains a colt where plenty in this field have been de-tackled. Second, and more interesting, is the record of his trainer Kevin Ryan with older horses at Royal Ascot. Since 2013, he's sent out 21 four- or five-year-olds that went off 33/1 or shorter. Six of them won and another four were placed. Of course, one of that sextet was 33/1 Queen Anne winner Triple Time twelve months ago.

 

 

As I write, Hi Royal is 66/1 so wouldn't fit the 'system' criteria, but he has a run two back that gives him a bit of a form squeak in any case. That was in the G3 Earl of Sefton over nine furlongs at Newmarket, where he was just run down late on. The drop back to a mile in the Lockinge last time saw him get closer than a number of better fancied rivals here having been agitated in the stalls and possibly losing his race there. He's ridden here, as he was at Newbury, by a certain Ryan Moore and I'm inclined to think he's worthy of a tiny speculative wager.

Queen Anne Summary

The opening race of Royal Ascot 2024, the Queen Anne Stakes, is a real headscratcher. The best form line by a way is Big Rock's G1 course and distance score last October; but the horse has run only once since - very moderately - and that on his debut for a new stable that generally fires at a much lower level, in terms of both quality and strike rate, than his previous conditioners. Taking Big Rock out of the equation, Audience recorded a breakout effort last time in the G1 Lockinge on his first try at a mile. It's possible he could continue to progress at the new trip but his run style - going from the front - is similar to Big Rock's and also Brave Emperor's on a track and at a trip that rarely favours contested early speed.

 

 

The solid one is Facteur Cheval, who comes here off the back of a Group 1 win, albeit over nine furlongs and in Dubai; but he can back that up with placed efforts in four straight European G1's beforehand. Therein lies his problem: he does tend to find one too good and, at a price unforgiving of such a trait, he may again frustrate win players. Meanwhile, Charyn has hit a winning groove and some consistency in his performance ratings: they're unsexy but might be good enough. I just don't like his price.

Bits and pieces of place cases can be made for almost all of the rest and it might be a race to bet a couple of rags at massive prices. Better that than have a good win bet on a fancied horse that finishes second in my book. As I say, you can almost pays your money and takes your chance, so it is in that "I'm sorry, I haven't a clue" context that I offer most tentatively 20/1 Royal Scotsman who comes here off a win and was 3rd in the 2022 Coventry; and 66/1 Hi Royal whose price demands a nicker each way - four places at least!

It will at least get ever so slightly easier on occasion after this...

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3.05 Coventry Stakes (6f, Group 2, 2yo)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

First run in 1890 and named after the 9th Earl of Coventry, the Coventry Stakes is arguably the premier juvenile race at Royal Ascot. Winners of this race often go on to compete in higher-profile events later in their careers. Notable recent winners include Caravaggio (2016), Buratino (2015), War Command (2013), Dawn Approach (2012) and Canford Cliffs (2009).

Key Trends (Last 5 Years):

Previous Runs: All five winners and 14 of the 15 placed horses had run once or twice before the Coventry.

Trainer: Archie Watson has had 1 winner from 5 runners with 3 places, yielding an each-way return of +£8.80.

Draw Bias: Recent winners were drawn in stalls 3, 6, 17, 2, and 6, suggesting a slight preference for low to mid draws.

Top Contenders:

Camille Pissarro (Aidan O’Brien) - Impressive debut winner at Navan; narrowly beaten (a head) in the Group 3 Marble Hill last time. Strong credentials for top connections and likely to handle quicker ground well.

Cowardofthecounty (Joseph O’Brien) - Battled well to win on debut on soft to heavy ground at the Curragh. Needs to prove himself on a quicker surface but is open to plenty of improvement if he does.

Midnight Strike (Joseph O’Brien) - Stylish winner on debut; third in the Marble Hill (half a length behind Camille Pissarro) last time. Should be competitive if adapting to quicker ground conditions. Oisin Murphy is booked for the ride. Stablemate of Cowardofthecounty.

Andesite (Karl Burke) - Overcame greenness to win a York novice on debut last month, with the form holding up well. Ascot’s stiffer track could play to his strengths, and he’s the sole Karl Burke runner in the line-up.

Catalyse (Richard Fahey) - Easy debut winner at Hamilton 16 days ago. Steps up in class but looks open to significant improvement and is the pick of retained jockey James Doyle.

Electrolyte (Archie Watson) - Comfortable winner at Ayr on debut, handles good ground well. Solid contender despite retained jockey James Doyle opting for Catalyse. A good each-way contender for a trainer with an excellent race record.

Arran (Paul & Oliver Cole) - Front-running winner at Newmarket on debut in April; form boosted by subsequent winners. Has potential for further improvement and is another with each-way claims.

Coventry Stakes Verdict

The Coventry Stakes is always an exciting race, and this year is no exception. Among the favourites, I prefer Cowardofthecounty over Camille Pissarro. However, considering the current odds, I see the value in backing Andesite and Electrolyte.

Betting Advice: Initially, I considered Electrolyte for an each-way bet, but I've decided to keep Andesite onside as well.

Electrolyte: £3 each way at 28/1 (William Hill & bet365, paying 5 places)
Andesite: £11 win at 9/1

I wouldn't recommend taking lower odds than these. However, if Electrolyte places, a small profit is gained.

 

 

3.45 King Charles III Stakes (5f, Group 1, 3yo+)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

We have had 11 winners from the 27 renewals of the Kings Stand, now King Charles III Stakes, since 1997 that have been trained outside of the UK and Ireland (France, America, Hong Kong, Spain and Australia) making it the most 'international' race run at Royal Ascot in the last quarter of a century. This year Ascot has attracted a single overseas runner, Asfoora from Australia. Ireland's contribution in that time period consists only of dual winner Sole Power who is the one Irish-trained horse to win the Kings Charles III from the 33 runners to have tried; but I'm banking on that all changing this year with one of my best bets of the meeting.

VALIANT FORCE did me and my subscribers a big favour at this meeting last year when winning the Norfolk at an enormous price (150/1) and I think he can follow Bradsell's lead from this race 12 months ago and come back to win the Kings Charles III as a 3yo having won a 2yo race at the Royal meeting the previous year. He's been on my radar for this ever since that win last year and this 5f speedster has done little to change my mind in four starts since. He flopped on his run prior to the Norfolk last season when tried over 6f and found his stamina stretched again over that trip when trying the Group 1 Prix Morny on his first run after the Norfolk when only 5th to Vandeek.

We didn't see him again until the Breeders Cup when, back down to 5f from a wide draw, he flew home to get beat just 1/2 length by Big Evs, closing on the winner all the way to the line. He stayed in America after that run to join Jorge Delgado where he ran 2nd over 5f on turf and 4th over 6f on dirt earlier this year. He's recently re-joined Adrian Murray and makes his first start this side of the pond since the Morny run and first run for 94 days. There have been plenty of winners of this race coming off a break including the 3yo Dominica in 2002 who won on seasonal debut.

In one of the poorest renewals of the King Charles III for many a year (there's been at least one runner in the field rated 115+ since at least 2007), with just 3lb splitting the top eight runners on official ratings, he won't be lacking in class and has nothing to find with the favourite on that run at the Breeders' Cup last year, where he travelled noticeably further than the winner.

With the ground in his favour, the stable in form and a good draw (five of the last seven winners were drawn 10+) I think he has an excellent chance of repeating his course and distance win from last year.

SELECTION: VALIANT FORCE (EW) at 16/1 general / 12/1 6 places Skybet

 

4.25 St James's Palace Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

To race four we hurtle and hopefully by this stage my esteemed blogging colleagues have got us off to a flyer. This preview is rather unoriginal in that I cannot see past the favourite, Notable Speech, who at 11/8 still looks good value to my eyes, but as I type that price is vanishing.

Before talking about the race in more depth, allow me to share some content that may be useful more generally, whatever the result of this race.

In what follows, I've had a look at all Royal Ascot Group 1s, for 3YOs only.

Since 2010, those horses officially rated 121+ (Notable Speech 122, next in 118) are 6 winners from 12 runners, 8 have placed (including all winners), for a Betfair SP Actual vs Expected of 1.17. Remarkably, they’re still performing above market expectations.

If we go back to the start of 2008 and look at Royal Ascot / Group 1s / 3YO Only / Top Rated on Official Ratings…
54 bets / 20 wins / 31 places (incl. wins) / 37% sr / +22 SP / +32 BFSP / BFAE 1.37

Not bad. Looking at those sent off 10/1 or shorter SP improves those figures to 20/47, 31p, +39 BFSP, and at the last three meetings, 6/9,8p, +16 BFSP.

Within those criteria, if we just focus on those that finished in the first two on their last start…
32 bets / 16 wins / 22 places / 50% sr / +27 SP / +34 BFSP / BFAE 1.47

This is a decent little micro angle to keep onside at the Royal meeting moving forwards, with this race, the Commonwealth Cup and the Coronation Stakes the 3YO races in focus.

Moving back to the St James's Palace Stakes...

Notable Speech – of course he hits this micro angle, and indeed horses in this race who were sent off favourite having been last seen winning the 2000 Guineas, are 2/3, 3p. Charlie Appleby has saddled two SJP favourites: Pinatubo, who finished 2nd, and last year’s winner Coroebus, sent off 10/11 fav. Notable Speech may end up such a price.

At the previous five Royal Ascot meetings it has paid to keep Charlie Appleby and William Buick close, especially with horses aged three and who won their last start… 4/12,7p, +11 BFSP.

The yard enters this week in blistering form: in the last 14 days, 4/10, 6p, 79% of rivals beaten, against a 365 day average of 66%. It’s not a bad time for the string the come alive!

The horse… it was hard not to be impressed by Notable Speech at Newmarket on his turf debut. He’d previously had three races on the AW, easily winning a conditions stakes at Kempton on his penultimate start, a performance which had the clock watchers and sectional timing maestros purring. In the 2000 Guineas, he settled very well, looked straightforward, and had to get himself into the race on the far side, on the wing, moving up effortlessly and putting the race to bed in a matter of strides. I suspect were he following Rosallion through that race he’d have been even more impressive. It was visually stunning and of course he’s still open to stacks of improvement.

He knows how to race around a bend from his Kempton sorties and has tactical speed – that could be a big advantage here in a race which doesn’t look likely to be strongly run, on paper anyway! Buick may not want to be as far back as he was at Newmarket, but he appears the sort who can race wherever his jockey wishes to place him, given his change of gears and the ease with which he moves through a race. This will be the fastest ground Notable Speech has faced, which is an unknown, but of course he may relish it. That is the only chink I think those opposing him may cling to.

However I’m struggling to find a negative or a substantive reason from which to oppose him. He’s the best horse on all the figures and brings the best piece of recent form to the table, Rosallion subsequently winning the Irish 2000 Guineas, having got closest to Notable Speech at Newmarket. Richard Hannon’s charge is the best he’s trained apparently, but I can’t see why he overturns the form here, assuming Notable Speech runs his race, of course. He has his own questions if this is a slow pace, as he can take a firm grip and will need to settle. Maybe he will be chasing the favourite home again, and the forecast, or reverse forecast could be a way to play, if wishing to get involved for interest.

Aidan O’Brien always has the capacity to crash the party, his Henry Longfellow currently third in the market as I type. The fast ground is an unknown to him, and there's a chance he may have preferred rain. With his trainer expecting him to leave behind his poor effort in French 2000 Guineas on 12th May, maybe the Ballydoyle team will have transformed Henry as they did City of Troy! On pedigree he should improve plenty for this 1m trip, but he needs to. I would like to think he’ll be battling it out for 2nd place with Rosallion, but I suppose this game is rarely that straightforward! We shall see.

I’m firmly in the NOTABLE SPEECH camp, which may be very unoriginal but I’m minded not to be overly creative for the sake of it. I think the latter two mentioned need the favourite to underperform, and the others require all the top three to have an off day, or to themselves step forward considerably on the evidence to date. The favourite could make 11/8 look value, if you don’t mind a short price. In any case, do note some of the stats above, as they’re sure to help you land on a few winners moving forward, whether during the rest of this week, or next year!

 

'Ever fancied owning a share in a racehorse? Josh now has 11 horses in training and over 170 shareholders.

Keep informed by joining his Racing To Profit Syndicate email list for free, HERE>>>

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If you're betting placepots or jackpots (or quadpots or Scoop6) at Royal Ascot, you're much better off using Tix - it's free so check it out today!

 

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5.05 Ascot Stakes (2m4f, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap)

Preview by our own David Massey 

It would be easy enough, given that Ahorsewithnoname won this for Nicky Henderson last year, to think that this is a race dominated by jumps trainers; but that’s not really the case given Andrew Balding, Alan King and Ian Williams, twice, were also winners of this in the past five years. Granted, King and Williams are dual-purpose, but you get the drift.

The Irish trainers dominate the market this year, with Mullins, Elliott, O’Leary (sister of the suspended Tony Martin) and Jarlath Fahey training the first four in the betting; and, whilst the unexposed My Lyka is going to garner the majority of interest on what is only his second start for Willie, of that front four, if you had to have your house on one to run his race, it would have to be Pied Piper.

Far better known as a top-quality hurdler, he’s still a useful tool on the Flat and ran a cracker to be second to The Shunter in the Cesarewitch last autumn, staying on all the way to the line. He was trying to give the winner 2lb there, and it was merely another excellent effort in a raft of competitive handicaps, Flat and hurdles, that he regularly contends.

It’s worth remembering his sixth place finish in this two years ago when he didn’t get the best of runs: whilst by no means an unlucky loser, he’d surely have gone closer with a clear passage. He was trying to give winner, future Group 1 horse Coltrane, 3lb taking into account Callum Hutchinson’s 5lb on the day, hardly a shoddy effort.

Those looking for something at a bigger price might consider the evergreen Tritonic and another of the Irish contingent, Nusret.

Tritonic was third in this last year and is 5lb lower this time around. Two runs this season have been no more than satisfactory, although the sprint for the line at Southwell last time after they crawled through the race would definitely not have suited him. The question is whether he still wants to do it at the age of seven, and it’s a fair question to ask; but he’s got his conditions today, and maybe the reapplication of cheekpieces might just buck his ideas up. He has a decent draw to work from and could keep drifting in the market, as he’s not a sexy selection at all, so don’t worry if you don’t get BOG from your bookie - back it at Betfair SP.

Nusret is a useful dual-purpose sort for Joseph O’Brien and ran respectably when fifth at the Punchestown Festival, sticking well to his task in a Listed Handicap Hurdle. It’s worth remembering how very easily he won the Race To The Ebor Handicap at the Curragh last June; despite having to wait, and wait again, for the gap to appear, once it did he quickened through it and won a very comfortable half a length, looking like there was a lot left in the tank. He ran to a similar level at Leopardstown next time, the slight drop back in trip counting against him, and whilst this extreme stamina test is something new to him, he’s worth a crack at it. A mark of 91 is very workable if he stays.

 

5.40 Wolferton Stakes (1m2f, Listed, 4yo+)

Preview by Rory Delargy

The complicating factor for me in the Wolferton is the presence of my punting bête noire, Checkandchallenge, in the field. The son of Fast Company was last behind Mqse de Sevigne in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan last time, but was beaten less than 3¾ lengths in a tactical race, and the sixth that day, Marhaba Ya Sanafi, won a Group 3 at the weekend. William Knight has never had his horses in better form, and I can feel the inexorable cliff-horse pull. Must. Resist. Temptation.

Phew, that was close.

The draw is always worth a look at Ascot, irrespective of trip, and while this is a relatively new race at the meeting, there have been enough runnings to make a judgment. Despite the layout of the track suggesting low numbers should have the best of it, that hasn’t been the case, and the only horse to win from one of the two lowest stalls in the race’s history was 13/8 favourite Rainbow Peak in 2010 (he was drawn 16 of 16 back in 2010 before the numbering method changed). High numbers, especially those held up, can also struggle, though three winners in the last decade have come from stall 12.

In terms of pace, no horse has made all since 2006 when the race was run as a handicap, but even hold up horses can find trouble on the run to the bend with three getting the in-running comment “badly hampered” last year. Ideally, you want a horse with the relative early speed to take a handy position behind the leaders and be able to make a move early in the straight.

With the ability to cope with firmish ground (the ground will be quickening throughout the day) a prerequisite, it’s easy to make a shortlist and, being brutal about it, I’m down to two horses fairly quickly. Israr stands out in terms of recent form and race conditions, while he’s got the ideal run style to give him every chance. As such he’s a deserving favourite, and I’d not put anyone off his chances.

The other on my short list is Astro King who can be forgiven a rare below-par effort over 1½m at Newmarket last time. Twice placed at this meeting for Sir Michael Stoute, he’s an improved performer for current connections and ran a cracker to be second in the Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes on his return to the UK in April.

Both of Astro King’s wins for Daniel & Clare Kubler have come on good to firm ground and he is better at 1m1f/1¼m than a mile. His stall is the same one that Contributer, Addeybb and Royal Champion have scored from, and he should get a nice tow into the race from habitual front-runner Cemhaan, making him look a decent each-way bet at around 14/1.

Recommended: 1pt e/w Astro King @ 14/1 (general – 4 places)

 

6.15 Copper Horse Stakes (1m6f, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

This is still a relatively new race with only four previous renewals and, with this course and distance generally only seeing small field races during the rest of the year, draw and pace data remains relatively sparse. What data we do have (Geegeez Gold racecards, PACE tab) suggests that there is a slight advantage being drawn lower and you probably don’t want to be miles off the pace.

 

 

There doesn’t look to be much pace contention with A Piece Of Heaven probably the sole forward-going type. That factor, and the tendency for prominent racers to be advantaged, suggests anything that is held up in the rear here is going to need to be extremely well-handicapped, and lucky in the run, to win.

 

 

It’s difficult to make strong conclusions from the limited draw data but when sorting the dividual draw data table (Geegeez Gold racecards, DRAW tab) by PRB3 it seems telling that the top performing berths are the nine single-figure stalls and the seven worst performers are the double-figure stalls.

Stall 14 has previously won so it’s not as though we can just put a line through the higher draws, but we can probably slightly mark up those who have a lower stall.

On to the runners…

I’m always a little frustrated by these staying handicaps at Ascot as Willie Mullins tends to farm them with horses that are almost impossible to back. That said, I’m looking to bet him in one later in the week!

Generally they have little to no flat form in this country and often have something to prove on fast ground and over the trip they are running. This year’s favourite is slightly different, though. Belloccio is pretty exposed, having run fifteen times on the flat in the UK for David Menuisier. If you were building a profile for the horse from those runs you’d say he was a top handicapper around Kempton (Listed winner) but not a turf horse at all having beaten only ten rivals home in his last eight flat turf runs. If he was still with his old trainer he’d likely be an outsider for this.

So the big question is how magical is Willie Mullins at transforming horses? Belloccio won a maiden hurdle on his only start for his new trainer with a winning margin of nine lengths so suddenly things look more positive in regards to running on turf but I still have strong reservations. The runner up from that race was beaten three times as far next time out at the same level and the third was pulled up on his next start. Despite the impressive winning margin, a poor maiden hurdle score doesn’t necessarily prove he’s thrown in off a mark of 100 here.

He’s also seemingly been kept away from fast ground throughout his career which is another reason he’s opposable. Mullins had the one-two in this last year but if he ever had a runner at Royal Ascot that is opposable it's this horse. I’m not saying he can’t win, but I am saying he’s a terrible price.

Fox Journey is a horse I followed last year and his last run over this trip was an excellent 3rd in the Melrose Handicap behind Middle Earth. He seemingly took his form to a whole new level on his first start this season when winning a 12f handicap by 11 lengths, and the handicapper could have been a lot harsher than giving him only a 9lb rise for that. I have suspicions about the strength of that form so I’m not sure how well handicapped he is now but he at least seems to have conditions in his favour so could go well.

A Piece Of Heaven is another who won easily last time out and he showed plenty of versatility dropping back to 12f, having previously won over two miles. This looks a much tougher race than the last two he’s won and he’s gone up a total of 16lbs for those so I wouldn’t be especially quick to back him from stall 18, even if he could get across and secure an easy lead.

The one I like the most is Bague D’Or, but by the time you read this he’s probably going to have been balloted out of the race as he’s the first reserve at the time of writing. I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed that there’s a non-runner before the cut off because he remains unexposed at this trip with form figures of 1121 on good or better ground, including a course and distance success. His only defeat at 14f on decent ground came at the hands of Trawlerman, who went on to win the Ebor on his next start and subsequently rate 21lbs higher (and is a warm fancy in the Gold Cup market).

Bague D’Or won at Newmarket on his first start this season, in pretty comfortable fashion, and he can race mid-division to prominent so should be well placed in this from stall 9 if he does get a run. On the assumption he doesn’t get a run, we need a backup selection and conveniently there is a runner in this who was just two lengths behind Bague D’Or last time at Newmarket and is now 4lbs better off. That runner is Intinso and if the first time tongue tie can help with his habitual keenness he could have a massive chance here.

If both Bague D’Or and Intinso get to run I still prefer the former (they are both around the 12/1 to 14/1 mark) but you could argue that Intinso has a great chance of reversing Newmarket form. Intinso was probably unsuited by leading that day so can potentially be marked up a little and he’s also more lightly raced than Bague D’Or so could improve further, especially if settling better.

Intinso has run three decent races this year, winning easily at Wolverhampton before finding a tactical race over 11f at Kempton a bit too much, but he still stayed on into 3rd, doing best of those not up with the pace throughout. Then last time out he probably could have done with a lead when beaten by Bague D’Or.

He’s drawn in stall 2 and if he can settle on the rail, just behind A Piece Of Heaven, he may be ideally positioned turning for home and could be seen to very best effect. It’s also worth noting that Amtiyaz, who won this for the same connections in 2021, is a half-brother to Intinso.

So, to summarise, I’m pretty keen on an each way wager on 14/1 BAGUE D’OR if he does get a run (stakes returned if balloted out); but, in the likelihood he doesn’t get in, I’ll be having a small bet on 14/1 INTINSO instead at the same sort of price.

 

Sam Darby's Winning Post Profits

 

*

And that's how our team sees the opening day of the 2024 Royal Ascot meeting. Lots of prices to go at and perfectly possible to have a complete wipeout, but one winner will likely cover the losers. Be lucky, and keep some powder dry for the battles to come!

Matt

Racing Bulletin for 17/06/2024

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2024 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day One (Tues 18th June)

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2024 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 18th to Sat 22nd June 2024) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Royal Ascot Trends - Day One, Tuesday 18th June 2024

2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m ITV

Recent Queen Anne Stakes Winners

2023 – Triple Time 33/1
2022 – Baaeed (1/6 fav)
2021 – Palace Pier (2/7 fav)
2020 – Circus Maximus (4/1 fav)
2019 – Lord Glitters (14/1)
2018 – Accidental Agent (33/1)
2017 – Ribchester (11/10 fav)
2016 – Tepin (11/2)
2015 – Solow (11/8 fav)
2014 – Toronado (4/5 fav)
2013 – Declaration Of War (15/2)
2012 – Frankel (1/10 fav)
2011 – Canford Cliffs (11/8)
2010 – Goldikova (11/8 fav)
2009 – Paco Boy (10/3)
2008 – Haradasun (5/1)
2007 – Ramonti (5/1)
2006 – Ad Valorem (13/2)
2005 – Valixir (4/1)
2004 – Refuse To Bend (12/1)
2003 – Dubai Destination (9/2)
2002 – No Excuse Needed (13/2)

Queen Anne Stakes Trends

21/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
19/22 – Previous winners over 1 mile
17/22 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
17/22 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Had already won a Group 1 race
16/22 – Won by a 4 year-old
15/22 - Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/22 – Trained by either R Hannon (3), A P O’Brien (4) or owned by Godolphin (4)
11/22 – Ran in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time out
11/22 – Had never run at Ascot before
10/22 – Won their previous race
10/22 – Favourites that were unplaced
8/22 – Winning favourites

Godolphin have won the race 8 times in total
Only 2 winners from Stall 1 in the last 16 runnings
13 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 4 or higher

 

3.05 - Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f ITV

Recent Coventry Stakes Winners

2023 – River Tiber (11/8 fav)
2022 – Bradsell (8/1)
2021 – Berkshire Shadow (11/1)
2020 – Nando Parrado (150/1)
2019 – Arizona (15/8 fav)
2018 – Calyx (2/1 fav)
2017 – Rajasinghe (11/1)
2016 – Caravaggio (13/8 fav)
2015 – Buratino (6/1)
2014 – The Wow Signal (5/1 jfav)
2013 – War Command (20/1)
2012 – Dawn Approach (7/2)
2011 – Power (4/1 fav)
2010 – Strong Suit (15/8 fav)
2009 – Canford Cliffs (7/4 fav)
2008 – Art Connoisseur (8/1)
2007 – Henrythenavigator (11/4 fav)
2006 – Hellvelyn (4/1 jfav)
2005 – Red Clubs (11/2)
2004 – Iceman (5/1 jfav)
2003 – Three Valleys (7/1)
2002 – Statue Of Liberty (16/1)

Coventry Stakes Trends

21/22 – Won their previous race
20/22 – Had never raced at Ascot before
19/22 – Had between 1 and 2 previous career runs
18/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 - Foaled in either Feb or March
16/22 - Came from the top three in the betting
13/22 – Won over 6f before
11/22 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
8/22 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
7/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/22 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/22 - Won by a Jan foal
13 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
8 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 9-19 (inc)

3.45 - King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f ITV

Recent King Charles III Stakes Winners

Known as King's Stand Stakes prior to 2024

2023 – Bradsell (14/1)
2022 – Nature Strip (9/4)
2021 – Oxted (4/1)
2020 – Battaash (5/6 fav)
2019 – Blue Point (5/2)
2018 – Blue Point (6/1)
2017 – Lady Aurelia (7/2)
2016 – Profitable (4/1)
2015 – Goldream (20/1)
2014 – Sole Power (5/1)
2013 – Sole Power (8/1)
2012 - Little Bridge (12/1)
2011 - Prohibit (7/1)
2010 - Equiano (9/2)
2009 - Scenic Blast (11/4 fav)
2008 - Equiano (22/1)
2007 - Miss Andretti (3/1 fav)
2006 - Takeover Target (7/1)
2005 - Chineur (7/1)
2004 - The Tatling (8/1)
2003 – Choisir (25/1)

King Charles III Stakes Trends

21/22 – Aged 7 or younger
20/22 – Had won a Group race before
18/22 – Aged 4 or older
18/22 – Had won over 5f before
16/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Finished first or second last time out
14/22 – Had run at Ascot before (9 had won at the track)
12/22 – Favourites placed
12/22 – Won by a non-UK based trained horse
6/22 – Ran at either Flemington (3) or Chantilly (3) last time out
6/22 – Favourites that finished third
4/22 – Won by an Australian-trained horse
4/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – 3 Year-old winners

A horse from stalls 9, 11 & 14 has been placed in 14 of the last 16 runnings

 

4.25 - St James´s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m ITV4

Recent St James’s Palace Stakes Winners

2023 – Paddington (11/5)
2022 – Coroebus (10/11 fav)
2021 – Poetic Flare (7/2 fav)
2020 – Palace Pier (4/1)
2019 – Circus Maximus (10/1)
2018 – Without Parole (9/4 fav)
2017 – Barney Roy (5/2)
2016 – Galileo Gold (6/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (8/15 fav)
2014 – Kingman (8/11 fav)
2013 – Dawn Approach (5/4 fav)
2012 – Most Improved (9/1)
2011 – Frankel (3/10 fav)
2010 – Canford Cliffs (11/4 jfav)
2009 – Mastercraftsman (5/6 fav)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (4/7 fav)
2007 – Excellent Art (8/1)
2006 – Araafa (2/1 fav)
2005 – Shamardal (7/4 fav)
2004 – Azamour (9/2)
2003 - Zafeen (8/1)
2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (4/5 fav)

St James’s Palace Stakes Trends

22/22 - Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
19/22 – Favourites that were placed
19/22 – Had won over a mile before
17/22 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
17/22– Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
15/22 – Previous Group 1 winners
15/22 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
13/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
13/22 – Won their previous race
11/22 – Ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh) last time out (8 won it)
10/22 – Irish-trained winners
7/22 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
6/22 – Had run at Ascot before

Just 3 winners from stall 1 or 2 in the last 16 runnings
6 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 4 or 5

5.05 - Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-95) 2m4f ITV4

Ascot Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Ahorsewithnoname (7/1)
2022 – Coltrane (14/1)
2021 – Reshoun (66/1)
2020 – Coeur De Lion (16/1)
2019 – The Grand Visir (12/1)
2018 – Lagostovegas (10/1)
2017 – Thomas Hobson (4/1 fav)
2016 – Jennies Jewel (6/1)
2015 – Clondaw Warrior (5/1 fav)
2014 – Domination (12/1)
2013 – Well Sharp (9/1)
2012 – Simenon (8/1)
2011 – Veiled (11/2)
2010 – Junior (17/2)
2009 – Judgethemoment (13/2)
2008 – Missoula (20/1)
2007 – Full House (20/1)
2006 – Baddam (33/1)
2005 – Leg Spinner (9/1)
2004 – Double Obsession (25/1)
2003 – Sindapour (12/1)
2002 – Riyadh (7/1 fav)

Ascot Stakes Trends

19/22 – Carried 9-0 or more
16/22 – Had at least 1 previous run on the flat that season
16/22 – Won by a stable better known for their NH runners
15/22 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
12/22 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
12/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/22 – Won their previous race
4/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins (4 of the last 12)
3/22 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 12)
3/22 – Winning favourites
2/22 – Trained by Ian Williams

Just one winner (or placed) horse from stall 1 placed in the last 16 runnings

 

5.40 - Wolferton Rated Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-110) 1m2f ITV4

Wolferton Rated Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Royal Champion (16/1)
2022 – Dubai Future (20/1)
2021 – Juan Elcano (14/1)
2020 – Mountain Angel (8/1)
2019 – Addeybb (5/1)
2018 – Monarchs Glen (8/1)
2017 – Snoano (25/1)
2016 – Sir Isaac Newton (7/1)
2015 – Mahsoob (7/4 fav)
2014 – Contributer (9/1)
2013 – Forgotten Voice (12/1)
2012 – Gatewood (3/1 fav)
2011 – Beachfire (12/1)
2010 – Rainbow Peak (13/8 fav)
2009 – Perfect Stride (8/1)
2008 – Supaseus (12/1)
2007 – Championship Point (25/1)
2006 – I’m So Lucky (16/1)
2005 – Imperial Stride (25/1)
2004 – Red Fort (6/1)
2003 – In Time’s Eye (5/1)

Wolferton Rated Stakes Key Trends

16/21 – Had between 1 and 3 runs already that season
16/21 – Finished unplaced last time out
15/21 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
14/21 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
13/21 – Aged 4 years-old
12/21 – Had run at Ascot before
11/21 – Unplaced favourites
11/21 – Returned a double-figure price
7/21 – Ran at either York (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
4/21 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of last 13)
4/21 – Trained at Kremlin House Stables (Roger Varian/M Jarvis)
2/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/21 – Winning favourites
14 of the last 18 winners returned 7/1 or bigger
4 of the last 8 winners came from stall 5

 

6.15 - Copper Horse Handicap (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

Just four previous runnings
Vauban won the race in 2023
Get Shirty won the race in 2022
4/4 – Carried 9-1 or more
4/4 – Aged between 4-6 (2 winners aged 6)
2/4 – Winning favourite
Trainer Willie Mullins won this race in 2023
Trainer David O’Meara won this race in 2022
Trainer John Gosden won this race in 2021
Trainer Roger Varian won this race in 2020

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2024 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Two (Weds 19th June)

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2024 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 18th to Sat 22nd June 2024) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day two on Wednesday 19th June 2024.

Royal Ascot Trends Day Two – Wednesday 19th June 2024

2.30 - Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) 5f ITV

Queen Mary Recent Winners

2023 – Crimson Advocate (9/1)
2022 – Dramatised (5/2 fav)
2021 – Quick Suzy (8/1)
2020 – Campanelle (9/2)
2019 – Raffle Prize (18/1)
2018 – Signora Cabello (25/1)
2017 – Heartache (5/1)
2016 – Lady Aurelia (2/1 fav)
2015 – Acapulco (5/2 fav)
2014 – Anthem Alexander (9/4 fav)
2013 – Rizeena (6/1)
2012 – Ceiling Kitty (20/1)
2011 – Best Terms (12/1)
2010 – Maqaasid (9/4 fav)
2009 – Jealous Again (13/2)
2008 – Langs Lash (25/1)
2007 – Elletelle (20/1)
2006 – Gilded (11/2)
2005 – Flashy Wings (4/1 jfav)
2004 – Damson (11/2 jfav)
2003 – Attraction (13/8 fav)
2002 – Romantic Liason (16/1)

Queen Mary Stakes Trends

21/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21/22 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
18/22 – Had won over 5f (or shorter) before
18/22 – Won their previous race
16/22 – Won by a horse foaled between Jan-Mar
16/22 – Placed favourites
9/22 – Won from non UK-based yards
8/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/22 – Returned a double-figure price
5/22 – Trained in the US
4/22 – Trained by Wesley Ward (including 3 of last 9 runnings)
2/22 – Won by trainer Richard Hannon

3.05 - Queen's Vase (Listed) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 2m ITV

Queen's Vase Recent Winners

2023 – Gregory (Evs fav)
2022 – Eldar Eldarov (5/2 fav)
2021 – Kemari (15/2)
2020 – Santiago (10/3)
2019 – Dashing Willoughby (6/1)
2018 – Kew Gardens (10/3)
2017 – Stradivarius (11/2)
2016 – Sword Fighter (33/1)
2015 – Aloft (5/2 fav)
2014 – Hartnell (7/2)
2013 – Leading Light (5/4 fav)
2012 – Estimate (3/1 fav)
2011 – Namibian (7/2 fav)
2010 – Mikhail Glinka (2/1 fav)
2009 – Holberg (7/1)
2008 – Patkai (6/4 fav)
2007 – Mahler (7/1)
2006 – Soapy Danger (4/1)
2005 – Melrose Avenue (4/1)
2004 – Duke Of Venice (9/2)
2003 – Shanty Star (7/2 fav)

Queen's Vase Key Trends

19/21 – Had never raced at Ascot before
15/21 – Placed last time out
13/21 – Had at least 2 previous career wins
13/21 – Had run over at least 1m4f before
12/21 – Placed favourites
7/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
7/21 – Ran at either Lingfield or Haydock last time out
8/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 - Trained by the Johnston yard
5/21 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/21 - Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 4 times in all)
No winner from stall 1 in the last 18 years
The horse from stall 7 has been placed in 7 of the last 17 runnings (4 wins)
17 of the last 18 winners came from a single-figure stall
7 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 7 or 8

3.45 - The Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Windsor Forest) (Group 2) 1m ITV

Duke of Cambridge Recent Winners

2023 – Rogue Millennium (10/1)
2022 – Saffron Beach (5/2 jfav)
2021 – Indie Angel (22/1)
2020 – Nazeef (10/3)
2019 – Move Swiftly (9/1)
2018 – Aljazzi (9/2)
2017 – Qemah (5/2 fav)
2016 – Usherette (9/4 fav)
2015 – Amazing Maria (25/1)
2014 – Integral (9/4 fav)
2013 – Duntle (10/3)
2012 – Joviality (11/1)
2011 – Lolly For Dolly (11/1)
2010 – Strawberrydaiquiri (9/2)
2009 – Spacious (10/1)
2008 – Sabana Perdida (4/1)
2007 – Nannina (3/1 co-fav)
2006 – Soviet Song (11/8 fav)
2005 – Peeress (14/1)
2004 – Favourable Terms (13/2)

Duke of Cambridge Trends

19/20 – Had won over a mile (or further) before
18/20 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
17/20 – Won by a 4 year-old
16/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/20 – Had won a Group 3 or better race before
13/20 – Favourites that were placed
12/20 – Had run at Ascot before
7/20 – Had won at Ascot before
7/20 – Returned a double-figure price
6/20 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/20 – Owned by Cheveley Park Stud
4/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/20 – Ran at Epsom last time out
4/20 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 12 and 2 of last 4 runnings)
3/20 – Ridden by William Buick (3 of last 12)
2/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of last 12)
2/20 – 0Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/20 – Winners from stall 1

Only 5 placed horses (2 winners) from stall 1 in the last 20 runnings

 4.25 - Prince of Wales's Stakes (Group 1) 1m2f ITV

Prince of Wales's Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Mostahdaf (10/1)
2022 – State Of Rest (5/1)
2021 – Love (11/10 fav)
2020 – Lord North (5/1)
2019 – Crystal Ocean (3/1)
2018 – Poet’s Word (11/2)
2017 – Highland Reel (9/4)
2016 – My Dream Boat (16/1)
2015 – Free Eagle (5/2 fav)
2014 – The Fugue (11/2)
2013 – Al Kazeem (11/4)
2012 – So You Think (4/5 fav)
2011 – Rewilding (17/2)
2010 – Byword (5/2 fav)
2009 – Vision D’etat (4/1)
2008 – Duke of Marmalade (Evs fav)
2007 – Manduro (15/8 fav)
2006 – Ouija Board (8/1)
2005 – Azamour (11/8 fav)
2004 – Rakti (3/1)
2003 – Nayef (5/1)
2002 -  Grandera (4/1)

Prince of Wales's Stakes Trends

22/22 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
21/22 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
21/22 – Won by a 4 or 5 year-old
18/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
18/22 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
15/22 – Were previous Group 1 winners
15/22 – Placed favourites
12/22 – Won their last race
12/22 – Had run at Ascot before
11/22 – Won by a non-UK based trainer
7/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of the last 12)
3/22 – Trained by John Gosden (5 wins in total)
2/22 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (5 wins in total)
3 of the last 16 runnings have gone to a French-trained horse

5.05 - Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) 1m ITV

Royal Hunt Cup Recent Winners

2023 – Jimi Hendrix (22/1)
2022 – Dark Shift (13/2)
2021 – Real World (18/1)
2020 – Dark Vision (15/2)
2019 – Afaak (20/1)
2018 – Settle For Bay (16/1)
2017 – Zhui Feng (25/1)
2016 – Portage (10/1)
2015 – GM Hopkins (8/1)
2014 – Field of Dream (20/1)
2013 – Belgian Bill (33/1)
2012 – Prince Of Johanne (16/1)
2011 – Julienas (12/1)
2010 – Invisible Man (28/1)
2009 – Forgotten Voice (4/1 fav)
2008 – Mr Aviator (25/1)
2007 – Royal Oath (9/1)
2006 – Cesare (14/1)
2005 – New Seeker (11/1)
2004 – Mine (16/1)
2003 – Macadamia (8/1)
2002 – Norton (25/1)

Royal Hunt Cup Trends

20/22 – Had won over at least a mile before
19/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
16/22 – Carried 9-1 or less
16/22 – Unplaced favourites
16/22 – Returned a double-figure price
14/22 – Had run at Ascot before
14/22 – Won by a 4 year-old (inc 11 of the last 14 runnings)
12/22 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs that season
6/22 – Won their last race
2/22 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/22 – Won by trainer John Gosden
2/22 – Won by trainer Charles Hills (2 of the last 5)
1/22 – Winning favourites
Overall, high number stalls have dominated in recent years
14 of the last 18 winners came from a double-figure stall
We’ve seen 3 winners from stall 33 in the last 15 runnings

 5.40 – Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap) (4yo+) fillies and mares 1m ITV

3 previous runnings
Villanova Queen (25/1) won this race in 2023
Rising Star (40/1) won this race in 2022
Trainer David Loughnane won this race in 2021

 

6.15 - Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f ITV4

Windsor Castle Recent Winners

2023 – Big Evs (20/1)
2022 – Little Big Bear (6/5 fav)
2021 – Chipotle (22/1)
2020 – Tactical (7/2 fav)
2019 – Southern Hills (7/1)
2018 – Soldier’s Call (12/1)
2017 – Sound And Silence (16/1)
2016 – Ardad (20/1)
2015 – Washington DC (5/1)
2014 – Hootenanny (7/2 fav)
2013 – Extortionist (16/1)
2012 – Hototo (14/1)
2011 – Frederick Engels (9/4 fav)
2010 – Marine Commando (9/2)
2009 – Strike The Tiger (33/1)
2008 – Flashmans Papers (100/1)
2007 – Drawnfromthepast (9/1)
2006 – Elhamri (20/1)
2005 – Titus Alone (11/4)
2004 – Chateau Istana (12/1)
2003 – Holborn (5/2 fav)
2002 – Revenue (14/1)

Windsor Castle Trends

22/22 – Had at least 1 previous outing
21/22 – Won by a foal born April or earlier
19/22 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs
16/22 – Had won over 5f before
16/22 – Placed last time out
16/22 – Had never run at Ascot before
12/22 – Returned a double-figure price (inc a 100/1 winner)
11/22 – Unplaced favourites
10/22 – Won their previous race
9/22 – Won by a Feb foal
5/22 – Winning favourites
2/22 – Trained by Wesley Ward
2/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of last 9)

Just 2 horses placed from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings
11 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure stall

 

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2024 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Three (Thurs 20th June)

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2024 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 18th to Sat 22nd June 2024) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day three on Thursday 20th June 2024.

Royal Ascot Trends Day Three – Thursday 20th June 2024

 

2.30 - Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f ITV

Norfolk Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Valiant Force (150/1)
2022 - The Ridler (50/1)
2021 – Perfect Power (14/1)
2020 – The Lir Jet (9/2)
2019 – A’Ali (5/1)
2018 – Shang Shang Shang (5/1)
2017 – Sioux Nation (14/1)
2016 – Prince Of Lir (8/1)
2015 – Waterloo Bridge (12/1)
2014 – Baitha Alga (8/1)
2013 – No Nay Never (4/1)
2012 – Reckless Abandon (4/1)
2011 – Bapak Chinta (6/1)
2010 – Approve (16/1)
2009 – Radiohead (10/1)
2008 – South Central (11/4 fav)
2007 – Winker Watson (2/1 fav)
2006 – Dutch Art (11/4)
2005 – Masta Plasta (7/2)
2004 – Blue Dakota (5/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Valour (4/1)

Norfolk Stakes Trends

21/21 – Had at least 1 previous run
19/21 – Previous winners over 5f
19/21 – Had never raced at Ascot before
18/21 – Had a RPR of 105+
16/21 – Won their previous race
14/21 – Foaled in March or April
12/21 – Favourites placed
11/21 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/21 – Returned a double-figure (or triple) price
3/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Ran at Windsor last time out
2/21 – Trained by Wesley Ward
2/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 of the last 89 winners
Richard Fahey have won 2 of the last 3 runnings
11 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc)

3.05 - King George V Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m4f ITV

King George V Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Desert Hero (18/1)
2022 – Secret State (4/1 jfav)
2021 – Surefire (5/1)
2020 – Hukum (12/1)
2019 – South Pacific (22/1)
2018 – Baghdad (9/1)
2017 – Atty Persse (7/1)
2016 - Primitivo (13/2)
2015 – Space Age (9/1)
2014 – Elite Army (4/1 jfav)
2013 – Elidor (20/1)
2012 – Fennell Bay (12/1)
2011 – Brown Panther (4/1 jfav)
2010 – Dandino (7/1)
2009 – Cosmic Sun (66/1)
2008 – Colony (11/2 fav)
2007 – Heron Bay (20/1)
2006 – Linas Selection (9/2)
2005 – Munsef (14/1)
2004 – Admiral (9/1)
2003 – Fantastic Love (10/1)

King George V Stakes Trends

20/21 – Never raced at Ascot before
19/21 – Had at least 2 previous runs that same season
19/21 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
19/21 – Placed last time out
17/21 – Carried 8-13 or less
14/21 – Had won over at least 1m2f previously
12/21 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
11/21 – Favourites placed
11/21 – Won their previous race
6/21 – Won by trainers Sir Michael Stoute (2) or the Johnston camp (4)
4/21 – Ran at Haydock last time out
4/21 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/21 – Godolphin-owned (Charlie Appleby has trained 2 of the last 9)

11 of the last 18 winners came between stalls 10-20 (inc)
8 of the last 18 winners came between stalls 10-16 (inc)

 

3.45 - Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £77,092 1m4f ITV

Ribblesdale Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Warm Heart (13/2)
2022 – Magical Lagoon (11/4)
2021 – Loving Dream (18/1)
2020 – Frankly Darling (11/8 fav)
2019 – Star Catcher (4/1)
2018 – Magic Wand (10/3)
2017 – Coronet (9/1)
2016 – Even Song (15/8 fav)
2015 – Curvy (9/2)
2014 – Bracelet (10/1)
2013 – Riposte (9/2)
2012 – Princess Highway (17/2)
2011 – Banimpire (3/1 fav)
2010 – Hibaayeb (4/1 jfav)
2009 – Flying Cloud (5/1)
2008 – Michita (10/3 fav)
2007 – Silkwood (4/1)
2006 – Mont Etoile (25/1)
2005 – Thakafaat (22/1)
2004 – Punctilious (9/2)
2003 – Spanish Sun (9/2)

Ribblesdale Stakes Trends

18/21 – Had never raced at Ascot before
17/21 – Had at least 2 previous races that season
16/21 – Placed in their previous race
15/21 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
14/21 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/21 – Placed favourites
11/21 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
8/21 – Won their last race
8/21 – Irish-trained winners (7 of last 12)
5/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4 of last 10)
4/21 - Trained by John Gosden (5 wins in total)
4/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/21 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (5 in total)
3/21 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse

Just two winners from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
9 of the last 18 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)

4.25 - Ascot Gold Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

Recent Ascot Gold Cup Winners

2023 – Courage Mon Ami (15/2)
2022 – Kyprios (13/8 fav)
2021 – Subjectivist (13/2)
2020 – Stradivarius (4/5 fav)
2019 – Stradivarius (Evs fav)
2018 – Stradivarius (7/4 jfav)
2017 – Big Orange (5/1)
2016 – Order Of St George (10/11 fav)
2015 – Trip To Paris (12/1)
2014 – Leading Light (10/11 fav)
2013 – Estimate (7/2 fav)
2012 – Colour Vision (6/1)
2011 – Fame And Glory (11/8 fav)
2010 – Rite of Passage (20/1)
2009 – Yeats (6/4 fav)
2008 – Yeats (11/8 fav)
2007 – Yeats (8/13 fav)
2006 – Yeats (7/1)
2005 – Westerner (7/4 fav)
2004 – Papineau (5/1)
2003 – Mr Dinos (3/1)
2002 – Royal Rebel (16/1)

Ascot Gold Cup Trends

20/22 – Had no more than 2 previous runs that season
20/22 – Aged 6 or younger
19/22 – Had between 1-2 previous runs that season
17/22 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat before
17/22 – Favourites that were placed
17/22 – Won their last race
14/22 – Previous Group 1 winners
12/22 – Won by the favourite
11/22 – Aged 4 years-old (9 of the last 12)
9/22 – Irish-trained winners
8/22 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/22 – Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes)
3/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 11)

15 of the last 18 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11 of the last 18 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc) (6 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 7 or lower)
Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2004 & 2012
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner in 2022, 2016, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
John Gosden has trained the winner in 2018, 2019 and 2020
Since 1949 there have been 15 multiple winners of the race

 

5.05 - Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m ITV4

Britannia Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Docklands (6/1 fav)
2022 – Thesis (14/1)
2021 – Perotto (18/1)
2020 – Khaloosy (9/2)
2019 – Biometric (28/1)
2018 – Ostillo (10/1)
2017 – Bless Him (25/1)
2016 – Defrocked (13/2)
2015 – War Envoy (10/1)
2014 – Born In China (14/1)
2013 – Beauty Flame (20/1)
2012 – Fast Or Free (6/1 fav)
2011 – Sagramor (8/1)
2010 – Ransom Note (9/1)
2009 – Fareer (20/1)
2008 – Fifteen Love (28/1)
2007 – Eddie Jock (33/1)
2006 – Sir Gerard (9/2 fav)
2005 – Mostashaar (10/3 fav)
2004 – Mandobi (8/1)
2003 – New Seeker (16/1)

Britannia Stakes Trends

19/21 – Had no more than 3 previous runs that season
17/21 – Had won a race over 7f or 1m before
17/21 – Placed last time out
14/21 – Failed to win their previous race
14/21 – Carried 8-13 or less
13/21 – Had never run at Ascot before
13/21 – Returned a double-figure price
11/21 – Unplaced favourites
8/21 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
8/21 – Had only won over 7f previously
4/21 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
4/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

Just one top three finish horse from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
14 of the last 18 winners came from a double-figure stall (2 of the last 4 winners from stall 19)

 

5.40 - Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f ITV4

Hampton Court Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Waipiro (7/1)
2022  - Claymore (7/1)
2021 – Mohaafeth (11/8 fav)
2020 – Russian Emperor (10/3)
2019 – Sangarius (13/2)
2018 – Hunting Horn (5/1)
2017 – Benbatl (9/2)
2016 – Hawkbill (11/2)
2015 – Time Test (15/8 fav)
2014 – Cannock Chase (7/4 fav)
2013 – Remote (9/4 fav)
2012 – Energizer (15/2)
2011 – Pisco Sour (20/1)
2010 – Afsare (9/4 fav)
2009 – Glass Harmonium (8/1)
2008 – Collection (13/2)
2007 – Zaham (7/2 fav)
2006 – Snoqualmie Boy (33/1)
2005 – Indigo Cat (3/1 fav)
2004 – Moscow Ballet (8/1)
2003 – Persian Majesty (8/1)

Hampton Court Stakes Trends

20/21 – Had not raced at Ascot before
18/21 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
18/21 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/21 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
12/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/21 – Had won over 1m2f before
9/21 – Unplaced favourites
7/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 - Ran at Epsom last time out
4/21 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
4/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/21 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute

No winner from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
14 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
11 of the last 17 winners came from stall 5-9 (inc)

6.15 - Buckingham Palace Handicap (3yo+) 7f ITV4

Buckingham Palace Handicap Trends

9/9 – Returned 12/1 or bigger in the betting
9/9 – Unplaced favourites
8/9 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Had won over at least 6f before
7/9 – Had run at Ascot before
7/9 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
7/9 – Rated between 92-98
7/9 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
6/9 – Had 5+ wins before
4/9 – Bred in Ireland
4/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
3/9 – Ridden by Neil Callan
2/9 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of the last 4)
2/9 – Came from stall 29
2/9 – Ran at Ascot last time out
0/9 – Winning favourites

2023: Witch Hunter (50/1), Richard Hannon, Jamie Spencer

 

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2024 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Four (Thurs 21st June)

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2024 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 18th to Sat 22nd June 2024) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day four on Friday 21st June 2024.

 

Royal Ascot Trends Day Four – Friday 21st June 2024

2.30 - Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f ITV

Albany Stakes Past Winners

2023 – Porta Fortuna (5/1)
2022 – Meditate (5/2)
2021 – Sandrine (16/1)
2020 – Dandalla (13/2)
2019 – Daahyeh (4/1 fav)
2018 – Main Edition (7/1)
2017 – Different League (20/1)
2016 – Brave Anna (16/1)
2015 – Illuminate (4/1 fav)
2014 – Cursory Glance (14/1)
2013 – Kiyoshi (8/1)
2012 – Newfangled (7/4 fav)
2011 – Samitar (16/1)
2010 – Memory (15/2)
2009 – Habaayib (16/1)
2008 – Cuis Ghaire (8/11 fav)
2007 – Nijoom Dubai (50/1)
2006 - Sander Camillo (4/1 fav)
2005 – La Chunga (10/1)
2004 – Jewel In The Sand (10/1)
2003 – Silca’s Gift (5/1)

Albany Stakes Key Trends

22/22 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs
22/22 – Never raced at Ascot before
21/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
18/22 – Won their previous race
16/22 – Won by either a Feb or Mar foal
15/22 – Placed favourites
11/22 – Previous winner over 6f
10/22 – Returned a double-figure price
6/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 – Won by trainers Channon (2) or Hannon (3)
3/22 – Ran at Sandown last time
2/22 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 10)
16 of the last 19 winners came from double-figure stalls
12 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 11-15 (inc)

3.05 - Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo) 6f ITV

Commonwealth Cup Recent Winners

2023 – Shaquille (9/1)
2022 – Perfect Power (7/2 jfav)
2021 – Campanelle (5/1)
2020 – Golden Horde (5/1)
2019 – Advertise (8/1)
2018 - Eqtidaar (12/1)
2017 - Caravaggio (5/6 fav)
2016 - Quiet Reflection (7/4 fav)
2015 - Muhaarar (10/1)

Commonwealth Cup Trends

9/9 – Won over 6f before
8/9 – Had run at Ascot before
7/9 – Drawn 8 or lower
7/9 – Won 3+ times before
5/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
4/9 – Rated 117 or higher
3/9 – Winning favourite
3/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Came from stall 8

3.45 - Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m ITV

Coronation Stakes Past Winners

2023 – Tahiyra (8/13 fav)
2022 – Inspiral (15/8 fav)
2021 – Alcohol Free (11/2)
2020 – Apline Star (9/2)
2019 – Watch Me (20/1)
2018 – Alpha Centauri (11/4 fav)
2017 – Winter (4/9 fav)
2016 – Qemah (6/1)
2015 – Ervedya (3/1)
2014 – Rizeena (11/2)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/2 jfav)
2012 – Fallen For You (12/1)
2011 – Immortal Verse (8/1)
2010 – Lillie Langtry (7/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (2/1 fav)
2008 – Lush Lashes (5/1)
2007 – Indian Ink (8/1)
2006 – Nannina (6/1 jfav)
2005 – Maids Causeway (9/2)
2004 – Attraction (6/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (4/7 fav)
2002 – Sophisticat (11/2)

Coronation Stakes Recent Trends

22/22 – Had won over at least 7f before
20/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
17/22 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 previously
15/22 – Had won over at least a 1 mile before
10/22 – Ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas
10/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
9/22 – Had run at Ascot before (3 winners)
8/22 – Unplaced last time out
6/22 – Ran in that season’s Irish 1,000 Guineas
3/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/22 – Trained by John Gosden
2/22 – Trained by Jessica Harrington (2 of the last 6)

15 of the last 17 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
No winners from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
14 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
10 of the last 18 winners were non UK-trained – French (4), Irish (6)

 4.25 - Duke of Edinburgh Stakes Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV

Duke of Edinburgh Stakes Past Winners

2023 – Okita Soushi (9/1)
2022 – Candleford (11/2)
2021 – Quickthorn (7/2 fav)
2020 – Scarlet Dragon (33/1)
2019 – Baghdad (7/2 fav)
2018 – Dash Of Spice (7/2 fav)
2017 – Rare Rhythm (20/1)
2016 – Kinema (8/1)
2015 – Arab Dawn (6/1 jfav)
2014 – Arab Spring (11/4 fav)
2013 – Opinion (8/1)
2012 – Camborne (11/2 fav)
2011 – Fox Hunt (12/1)
2010 – Cill Rialaig (16/1)
2009 – Drill Sergeant (14/1)
2008 – Sugar Ray (8/1)
2007 – Pevensey (8/1)
2006 – Young Mick (28/1)
2005 – Notable Guest (4/1)
2004 – Wunderwood (15/2)
2003 – Waverley (14/1)

Duke of Edinburgh Stakes Key Trends

20/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
19/21 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
19/21 – Had at least 2 previous career wins to their name
17/21 – Carried 9-0 or more
15/21 – Placed last time out
14/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/21 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
11/21 – Trained by Hughie Morrison (4), Johnston (3) or Sir Michael Stoute (4)
11/21 – Had run at Ascot before
8/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/21 – Ran at either York or Epsom last time (inc 7 of last 11 winners)
7/21 – Unplaced favourites
6/21 – Ran at Newmarket last time
5/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
16 of the last 18 winners came from a double-figure stall

5.05 - Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) 1m ITV

Sandringham Handicap Recent Winners

2023 – Coppice (6/1 jfav)
2022 – Heredia (7/2 fav)
2021 – Create Belief (6/1)
2020 – Onassis (33/1)
2019 – Thanks Be (33/1)
2018 – Agrotera (11/2 fav)
2017 – Con Te Partiro (20/1)
2016 – Persuasive (11/4 fav)
2015 – Osaila (13/2)
2014 – Muteela (9/2 fav)
2013 – Annecdote (11/1)
2012 – Duntle (4/1 fav)
2011 – Rhythm Of Light (8/1)
2010 – Timepiece (5/1)
2009 – Moneycantbuymelove (9/2 fav)
2008 – Festivale (10/1)
2007 – Barshiba (16/1)
2006 – Red Evie (5/1 co-fav)
2005 – Beautyandthebeast (9/2)
2004 – Celtic Heroine (11/1)
2003 – Hold To Ransom (11/1)
2002 – Tashawak (12/1)

Sandringham Handicap Trends

18/22 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
18/22 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Had never run at Ascot before
17/22 – Had won over at least 7f before
16/22 – Placed in their previous race
15/22 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
14/22 – Carried 8-11 or more
12/22 – Won their last race
9/22 – Returned a double-figure price
8/22 – Had exactly 3 runs already that season
8/22 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
4/22 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer

 

5.40 - King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f ITV

King Edward VII Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – King Of Steel (11/10 fav)
2022 – Changingoftheguard (11/10 fav)
2021 – Alenquer (13/8 fav)
2020 – Pyledriver (18/1)
2019 – Japan (6/4 fav)
2018 – Old Persian (9/2)
2017 – Permian (6/1)
2016 – Across The Stars (7/1)
2015 – Balios (3/1)
2014 – Eagle Top (12/1)
2013 – Hillstar (15/2)
2012 – Thomas Chippendale (9/2)
2011 – Nathaniel (11/4 fav)
2010 – Monterosso (7/2)
2009 – Father Time (9/1)
2008 – Campanologist (9/1)
2007 – Boscobel (7/1)
2006 – Papal Bull (5/4 fav)
2005 – Plea Bargain (9/2)
2004 – Five Dynasties (11/4 fav)
2003 – High Accolade (5/2 fav)

King Edward VII Stakes Key Trends

20/21 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
19/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the
17/21 – Had never raced at Ascot before
15/21 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/21 – Placed favourites
13/21 - Had won at least 2 previous races during their career
12/21 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
10/21 – Had already won a Listed or better class race
8/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/21 – Trained by John Gosden
3/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/21 – Trained by the Johnston yard
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
12 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 4-9 (inc)
15 of the last 17 winners returned 9/1 or shorter

6.15 - Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap (3yo) 5f ITV

Just 4 previous runnings
Rhythm N Hooves (12/1) won this race in 2023
Latin Lover (5/1) won this race in 2022
Trainer Harry Eustace won this race in 2022
Trainer Karl Burke won this race in 2021
Trainer Tim Easterby won this race in 2020
Trainer David Evans has a 50% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Dods has a 50% record with his 3 year-olds at the track

 

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2024 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Five (Sat 22nd June)

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2024 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 18th to Sat 22nd June 2024) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day five on Saturday 22nd June 2024.

Royal Ascot Trends Day Five – Saturday 22nd June 2024

2.30 - Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f ITV

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Snellen (12/1)
2022 – Holloway Boy (40/1)
2021 – Point Lonsdale (10/11 fav)
2020 – Battleground (11/4 fav)
2019 – Pinatubo (3/1)
2018 – Arthur Kitt (13/2)
2017 – September (11/8 fav)
2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

20/21 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
18/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/21 – Had just 1 previous career run
17/21 – Were foaled in March or earlier
16/21 – Ran over 6f last time out (10 won)
14/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/21 – Won their previous race
7/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/21 – Irish trained-winners (Aidan O’Brien, 4 of the last 8 winners)
2/21 – Trained by the Johnston yard
2/21 – Trained by Richard Hannon

Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020 & 2021
15 of the last 18 winners came between stalls 1-8
7 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (4)
13 of the last 18 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before

3.05 - Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f ITV

Recent Jersey Stakes Winners

2023 – Age Of Kings (22/1)
2022 – Noble Truth (4/1 fav)
2021 – Creative Force (5/1 jfav)
2020 – Molatham (11/2)
2019 – Space Traveller (25/1)
2018 – Expert Eye (8/1)
2017 – Le Brivido (2/1 fav)
2016 – Ribchester (7/1)
2015 – Dutch Connection (14/1)
2014 – Mustajeeb (9/2 jfav)
2013 – Gale Force Ten (9/2 fav)
2012 – Ishvana (20/1)
2011 – Strong Suit (11/1)
2010 – Rainfall (8/1)
2009 – Ouqba (12/1)
2008 – Aqlaam (13/2)
2007 – Tariq (15/2)
2006 – Jeremy (9/2)
2005 – Proclamation (7/1)
2004 – Kheleyf (6/1)
2003 – Membership (20/1)
2002 -  Just James (20/1)

Jersey Stakes Trends

20/22 – Had at least 1 run already that season
18/22 – Had 4 or more career runs
13/22 – Had won over 7f before
13/22 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
11/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/22 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
10/22 – Had run at Ascot before
9/22 – Horses from stall 8 placed
8/22 – Unplaced favourites
8/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/22 – Won their previous race
5/22 – Winning favourites
3/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4 wins in total)
2/22 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (5 wins in total)
2/22 – Trainer by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 3 runnings)

The Irish have won 4 of the last 12 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 5 of the last 16 runnings

3.45 - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Pyledriver (7/2)
2022 – Broome (6/1)
2021 – Wonderful Tonight (5/1)
2020 – Fanny Logan (17/2)
2019 – Defoe (11/4 fav)
2018 – Crystal Ocean (4/7 fav)
2017 – Idaho (9/2)
2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

21/21 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
21/21 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
18/21 – Placed last time out
18/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
15/21 – Had run at Ascot before
Michael Stoute (7)
14/21 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/21 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
13/21 – Aged 4 years-old (inc 11 of last 13 winners)
13/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4), Johnston (2) or Sir
12/21 – Placed favourites
10/21 – Won their previous race
7/21 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
7/21 – Winning favourites
6/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

15 of the last 18 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
13 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
8 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)
Sir Michael Stoute has trained 11 winners in total

 4.25 – QEII Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f ITV

QEII Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Khaadem (80/1)
2022 – Naval Crown (33/1)
2021 – Dream Of Dreams (3/1 fav)
2020 – Hello Youmzain (4/1)
2019 – Blue Point (6/4 fav)
2018 – Merchant Navy (4/1)
2017 – The Tin Man (9/2)
2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 - Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

QEII Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

19/21 – Previous distance (6f) winners
18/21 – Previous Group Race winners
16/21 – Aged 5 or younger
16/21 – Had run at Ascot before
15/21 – Failed to win their last race
14/21 – Won by a UK-based yard
10/21 – Returned a double-figure price
9/21 – Unplaced favourites
6/21 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
5/21 – Winning favourite (joint)
2/21 – Trained by James Fanshawe
8 of the last 19 winners were Irish-bred
10 of the last 19 winners came from a low-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 19 runnings
8 of the last 19 winners returned a double-figure price

5.05 - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f ITV4

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Saint Lawrence (22/1)
2022 – Rohaan (18/1)
2021 – Rohaan (8/1)
2020 – Hey Jonesy (18/1)
2019 – Cape Byron (7/2 fav)
2018 – Bacchus (33/1)
2017 – Out Do (25/1)
2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1)  (dead-heat)

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

24/24 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
22/24 – Had no more than 4 runs that season­­
22/24 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
21/24 – Had won a race over 6f before
20/24 – Finished sixth or better last time out
20/24 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/24 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
15/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
15/24 – Had run at Ascot before (8 had won here)
12/24 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
7/24 – Won their previous race
5/24 – Won by the favourite
12 of the last 18 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
10 of the last 18 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
14 of the last 18 winners came from a double-figure draw
13 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure stall
10 of the last 13 runnings - the top 2 finishers both came from double-figure stalls

Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 4 of the last 12 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 9 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 34 winners returning a double-figure price

5.40 - Golden Gates Handicap (3yo) 1m2f ITV4

Just the 4 previous runnings
Burdett Road (20/1) won this race in 2023
Missed the Cut (5/2 fav) won this race in 2022
Foxes Tales (13/2) won this race in 2021
Highland Chief (20/1) won this race in 2020
Trainer George Boughey won this race in 2022
Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2021
Trainer Paul and Oliver Cole won this race in 2020
All 3 winners came between stalls 13-16 (inc)

 

6.15 - Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y ITV4

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2023 – Dawn Rising (2/1 fav)
2022 – Stratum (10/1)
2021 – Stratum (4/1)
2020 – Who Dares Wins (Evs fav)
2019 – Cleonte (7/2)
2018 – Pallasator (11/2)
2017 – Oriental Fox (10/1)
2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

18/21 – Finished unplaced last time out
13/21 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
13/21 – Had run at Ascot before
11/21 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
9/21 – Won by a NH yard
8/21 – Irish-trained winners
5/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/21 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/21 – Trained by the Johnston yard
2/21 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/21 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/21 – Ridden by Joe Fanning

13 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
13 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
12 of the last 17 winners came from a double-figure stall

 

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Racing Insights, Monday 17/06/24

 

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  •  3.18 Chepstow
  • 4.00 Carlisle
  • 4.45 Kilbeggan
  • 7.45 Kilbeggan

The two UK races above are Class 4/5 affairs, but with the daily feature in mind, there are a couple of Class 3 sprints on the evening card at Windsor. One has sixteen runners, so I'll swerve that in favour of the 7.30 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

Sole filly Queen’s Guard is the only LTO winner and has two wins and two places from her last four outings. Aramram won two races ago and fast finisher Salvuccio won five starts back, as did Beyond Borders when completing a hat-trick. Jimmy Speaking won two of his last three, Sky Warrior won four races ago and despite three losses on the bounce, The Good Biscuit is still two from five, so this could be a useful contest.

Salvuccio is the only one of the seven who raced at Class 3 last time and he now wears first time blinkers. Aramram makes a handicap debut and is the only class dropper in the field with the other five runners all stepping up from Class 4. All bar Salvuccio have won over this trip, but we’ve no former course winners amongst a group that have all raced in the last 17 days and according to Instant Expert...

...mainly have a good win record over 6f. The Good Biscuit will like the ground here, having won two from three, whilst from a place perspective...

...it's probably time to write Salvuccio off from my considerations. Unusually over a straight 6f, there does seem to be abit of a draw bias in these smaller fields with stalls 1 to 3 having the best win records and stalls 1 to 5 faring best for the places, which might not bode well for Jimmy Speaking or Aramram...

If we then return to our feature of the day, pace, we see that those 90-odd races above have been dominated by front runners...

...making the success of low drawn leaders in the following pace/draw heat map of little surprise...

We can now check how these runners have approached their most recent races...

...data that opens the door for the two highest drawn runners, Jimmy Speaking and Aramram.

Summary

There's no standout runner here in what looks a tight contest. Queen's Guard is one of the form horses, but she seems unsuited by her pace profile and is up 7lbs for her LTO win, so I think that Jimmy Speaking might be a safer option at 13/2 with Hills (8.15pm Sunday), he's going to be up with the pace and has won two of his last three. Hopefully he'll edge the filly out and land the forecast too.

Racing Bulletin for 16/06/2024

Latest News and Features

Your first 30 days for just £1

Today's Racing

Click on course names to view our course guides. Click on race times to access that racecard. Times highlighted in yellow are free races of the day.

Downpatrick

Good

14:00 14:32 15:02 15:32 16:05 16:35 17:05
Doncaster

Good

14:10 14:40 15:10 15:40 16:10 16:40 17:10 17:40
Gowran Park

Good

14:15 14:45 15:16 15:51 16:21 16:51 17:21
Salisbury

Good to Firm

14:25 14:55 15:25 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30
Thirsk

Good

15:45 16:15 16:45 17:15 17:45 18:15 18:45

Today's Featured Article

Sectional Timing, and How To Use It

Today's Feature of the Day is...

Pace Maps for ALL races

Good luck!


Racing Bulletin for 15/06/2024

Latest News and Features

Your first 30 days for just £1

Today's Racing

Click on course names to view our course guides. Click on race times to access that racecard. Times highlighted in yellow are free races of the day.

Downpatrick

Yielding

13:05 13:40 14:15 14:50 15:25 16:00 16:35 17:10
Sandown Park

Good to Firm

13:30 14:05 14:40 15:15 15:50 16:25 17:00
Chester

Good

13:35 14:10 14:45 15:20 15:55 16:30 17:04 17:35
Bath

Good to Soft

13:45 14:20 14:55 15:30 16:05 16:40 17:15
York

Good to Soft

13:50 14:25 15:00 15:35 16:10 16:45 17:20
Hexham

Good

16:17 16:52 17:27 18:00 18:30 19:00
Uttoxeter

Good

17:07 17:40 18:10 18:40 19:10 19:45 20:15 20:45
Leicester

Good

17:17 17:48 18:18 18:53 19:25 20:00 20:30 21:00

Today's Feature of the Day is...

Trainer/Jockey Combo report

Good luck!


Racing Insights, Saturday 15/06/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and 5-year course form...

...which in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Sandown
  • 2.05 Sandown
  • 4.52 Hexham
  • 5.04 Chester
  • 5.20 York
  • 6.18 Leicester

...gives me a grand total of ten races to consider, the highest-rated of which is the 2.05 Sandown, but 16-runner handicaps really aren't my thing, so next best is the race before that one, the 1.30 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on good to firm ground...

Sole female in the race, Crystal Flyer was a winner last time out, as was bottom weight Prince Eric who completed a 53-day hat-trick albeit all over a mile on the A/W. Mafnood, Jayyash and Von Baer all finished third on their last outing, but the latter is a five-race maiden, whilst the rest of the field have all won at least once in their last six outings or less.

Von Baer has also been gelded during the seven-week break since his last run, whilst Mafnood wears first-time blinkers and both Break The Bank and Jayyash are visored for the first time here.

Only Mafnood, Jayyash and Von Baer raced at Class 3 last time out as Brioni, Crystal Flyer and Into Battle all drop down from Class 2 with Mr Monaco and Break The Bank stepping up from Class 4, whilst Prince Eric’s recent hat-trick was all at Class 5 on the A/W and he may find Class 3 turf action a tad more difficult.

Today will be handicap debut day for Crystal Flyer, whilst Mr Monaco and Into Battle have both only had one previous handicap outing, but the latter is the only runner in this fried to have won over a similar trip to this one and we’ve no previous course winners, according to Instant Expert, which initially doesn't give us much to work with...

...but a slight relaxing of the parameters proves more helpful...

...with most of the field having at lest one win and Prince Eric / Into Battle excelling at the trip, but a lack of wins doesn't always mean a horse has run poorly as the place stats below show...

...where Brioni looks like enjoying the conditions along with Mafnood. They both have three greens from going/class/course and distance, whilst Crystal Flyer and Into Battle have two greens, but I should stress that the sample sizes are so small that I wouldn't lean too heavily on these numbers.

The draw, however, might well have an important role to play and if we spilt the stalls into thirds, it looks like those drawn highest have a distinct advantage...

...although closer inspection of the stall by stall data would suggest that this advantage starts around halfway along the stalls in box 5...

If we then look at how those races above were won, it's a bit of a mixed bag if truth be told with no real clear benefit from any particular running style from a win perspective, although the further forward a horse has raced, the greater the chance of making the frame...

We can now also look at how the draw interacts with the pace and this is interesting and offers confirmation, because we've already said that higher drawn runners fare well and leaders go well from a place perspective, so this graphic shouldn't be a surprise...

...but it also suggests that five of the nine pace/draw combos all have a similar success rate, suggesting that there's no clearcut perfect profile and if we look at how this field has tended to run of late...

...which suggests that Brioni and Into Battle (possibly Von Baer) are the likely pace makers, whilst Mafnood downwards have the pick of the draw. Crystal Flyer had a change of tactic last time out and this proved successful, so she might be ridden the same way again and if so from stall 6, she may just about edge it on pace/draw.

Summary

This looks a pretty open contest and I think I could make a case for most of these, but the one that interests me most right now (5.15pm Friday) is the 13/2 Crystal Flyer. It's a bit of a gamble that she races up with the pace like last time, but that is reflected in the odds. She won quite cosily last time out, but drops in class here and her runner-up has won since won, so 13/2 might be generous here.

As for an E/W option, only Brioni (10/1), Break The Bank (10/1) and Von Baer (14/1) are at what I'd deem E/W odds and if pushed to put one forward, I'd side with Brioni who drops in class after a disappointing run last time ended a sequence of hime having one win and three further places from his first four career outings.

Sat TV Trends: 15th June 2024

More LIVE ITV action this Saturday (15th June) as the cameras head to Sandown, Chester and York this and, as always, here at Geegeez we've got all the key trends & stats to help you narrow down the fields, and hopefully point you in the direction of a few winners.

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

 

2.05 – Listen to BetMGM on TalkSPORT Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Rated between 90-94
9/11 – Carried 9-5 or more in weight
9/11 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Had won over 1m before
8/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Had run at the course before
7/11 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
6/11 – Aged 4 years-old
6/10 – Had won between 2-4 times before
4/11 – Ran at either Sandown (2) or Newmarket (2) last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

2.40 – BetMGM: It’s Showtime Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

19/19 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
16/19 – Had won over 5f before
14/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/19 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
11/19 – Irish bred
10/19 – Came from stall 7 or higher
10/19 – Had won at least 3 times before
10/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/19 – Winning favourites
8/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/19 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
5/19 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
2/19 – Trained by Michael Bell
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 4-9 (inc)
2 of the last 3 winners came from stall 4
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

 

1.50 – Queen Mother´s Cup Handicap (For Female Amateur Jockeys) (Handicap) Cl3 1m4f ITV4

17/20 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Carried 9-11 or more
17/20 – Had run over 1m4f or further previously
16/20– Had at least 2 previous runs already that season (flat)
16/20 – Aged 6 or younger
16/20 – Won from a single-figure stall
15/20 – Rated between 80-89
14/20 – Had run at York before
14/20 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
13/20 - Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/20 – Favourites placed in the top four
11/20 – Had won at least 3 times before (flat)
11/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/20 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
5/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Winners that came from stalls 3 or 4
4/20 – Won by trainer Tim Easterby
2/20 – Ridden by Miss J Coward

2.25 – Sky Bet Proud To Support Macmillan Handicap Cl2 7f ITV4

Only 8 previous runnings
7/8 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
7/8 – Came from a single-figure stall
6/8 – Rated between 90-99
6/8 – Unplaced favourites
6/8 – Had raced at York before
6/8 – Won over 7f before
4/8 – Aged 4 years-old
2/8 – Trained by Charles Hills
2/9 – Came from stall 9
1/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 10/1

3.00 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

14/15 – Officially rated 103 or higher
13/15 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
13/15 – Had raced in the last 2 months
13/15 – Drawn in stalls 1-7 (inc)
13/15 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
12/15 – Won at least 4 times before (flat)
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Ran at the track before
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winners from stall 1
2/15 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 7)
2/15 – Trained by Hughie Morrison (2 of the last 6)
Note: The 2014 running was a dead-heat
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

3.35 – Churchill Tyres Supporting Macmillan Sprint (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

16/18 – Had won over 6f before
15/18 – Rated between 87-97
15/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/18 – Had won between 1-2 times before
12/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
10/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
7/18 – Irish bred
7/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Won by trainer Tim Easterby (inc 3 of the last 10 runnings)
2/18 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
1/18 – Winners from stall 1
6 of the last 8 winners came from a single-figure draw (1-7)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

Chester Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

 

3.20 – Horseradish Catering & Events Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) 7 1/2f ITV4

Just 5 previous runnings
4/5 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Drawn between stalls 2-4 (inc)
1/5 – Winning favourite
Trainer David Evans has a 33% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer William Haggas has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 26% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 3-from-32 with this 3 year-olds at the track

 

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Racing Bulletin for 14/06/2024

Latest News and Features

Your first 30 days for just £1

Today's Racing

Click on course names to view our course guides. Click on race times to access that racecard. Times highlighted in yellow are free races of the day.

Sandown Park

Good to Firm

13:30 14:05 14:40 15:15 15:50 16:25 17:00
Chester

Good

13:40 14:15 14:50 15:25 16:00 16:35 17:10
York

Good

13:50 14:25 15:00 15:35 16:10 16:45
Fairyhouse

Good to Firm

16:30 17:05 17:40 18:15 18:50 19:25 20:00 20:30
Cork

Good

16:50 17:25 17:58 18:33 19:08 19:43 20:13
Market Rasen

Good

17:15 17:50 18:25 19:00 19:35 20:05
Goodwood

Good to Firm

17:30 18:05 18:40 19:15 19:50 20:20
Newton Abbot

Good

17:35 18:10 18:45 19:20 19:55 20:25 21:00

Today's Feature of the Day is...

Horses for Courses report

Good luck!


Taking on the World at Royal Ascot

There are plenty of ways to wager the Royal meeting. With bookmakers offering 'happy hour' enhanced odds, significant extended places each way, and a top hat-ful of specials and concessions, shopping around the firms is an obvious place to start. In his excellent Money Without Work series on geegeez, pro player Russ Clarke outlined the maths associated with bookie concessions and this is a must read for anyone even faintly serious about trying to come out in front. The series is here, and of specific relevance are parts 4 and 5; if you've not read those, go ahead and do that now - I'll wait 😉

That, of course, is if you can still get on with the bookies. Restrictions, the bane of millions of regular racing bettors, mean that such offers are a frustrating cocked snook: "I have thee not, and yet I see thee still".

Alternatives to traditional bookmakers

Happily, Royal Ascot is a meeting of global importance which bestows upon it more wagering pounds and dollars - Hong Kong, Australian, United States and other brands - than any other meeting in the British calendar. The eyes and wallets of the world are trained on these five days and that presents rare opportunity. Liquidity in UK racing markets is an ongoing challenge: the sharks have decimated the little fish on betting exchanges, and the dear old nanny goat (tote) continues to suffer from a historic lack of investment and promotion under previous stewardships. But both fight back during Royal Ascot week.

Exchanges

On Betfair, top sporting events bring far greater liquidity: backers and layers alike are prepared to risk more capital when they believe the playing field is even. So the exchanges are unquestionably a value option during a meeting like this, especially for win only players.

Keeping an eye on three price lists at once is not for everyone, but it can be a rewarding practice. In reality, of course, it is unlikely that starting price will be the best of the trio of SP, exchange SP and tote return; so unless you've played early with the Best Odds Guaranteed concession it's going to be a straight shoot out between 'the machine' and the nanny.

Their respective markets will be capitalised differently meaning different horses will be better or worse value in each. Here's why. Betfair, the major exchange player (though certainly not the only one in Royal Ascot week), does not allow the world to bet into a single win pool. So it is that UK and Irish punters will bet into one instance, and some overseas jurisdictions will bet into another: each will return a different SP for the race. Materially, plenty of geographies will be unable to (legally) bet on an exchange at all.

Tote / World Pool

Meanwhile, tote offers us World Pool. In partnership with a majority of the biggest international racing countries, including the aforementioned Hong Kong (whose ball it is that everyone plays with), Australia, US, Japan and on, World Pool means millions of quids and bucks and yens and euros are wagered into a single pot.

What that means is that there are blind spots in the markets. Much of the World Pool liquidity emanates from Hong Kong where, it's fair to say, they like a bet. But, as infrequent players on UK gee-gees, the general level of familiarity is commensurately sketchy. I hark back to some formative Saturday mornings punting Turffontein in South Africa, which typically meant no more form study than establishing which unknown equine Piere 'Striker' Strydom was aboard. He may have been the best rider (and he may not), but who knows what chance he had in any given race? I just didn't know about any of the other blokes (as it would have virtually exclusively been back then).

So it is with overseas punters in World Pool. It's a crying shame that there are relatively few international runners at the meeting this year because, as with Brits backing Brits at the Breeders', parochial punters are of the same stripe the world over. Hong Kong'ers will play HK runners, Aussies will back their Bruces and Sheilas, and our American cousins want to wager Wesley. That's human nature. And it is opportunity knocking.

I've managed to get hold of some great insights on last year's World Pool that reveal some of those trainers and jockeys which are overbet, and those which are underbet. More importantly, the logic around them is bombproof: overseas punters bet who they know. Duh.

So, even without Frankie Dettori or a proper away team in 2024, we still have to play Ryan Moore and William Buick, Neil Callan and Silvestre de Sousa, Hollie Doyle and Tom Marquand, as well as most likely Oisin Murphy, with caution on World Pool. The exchange will be a better option. Why? Ryan and William are the best known Euro jocks (and ride first string for the best known training and ownership firms); Callan and SdS were household names around Sha Tin and the Valley of Happy (at least in punting households) when plying their trade there; and Hollie and Tom have been highly successful in HK and Aus. Oisin has strong connections with Japan.

But, away from the international glare, prospects are rosy. The likes of Hayley Turner, Colin Keane, Billy Lee, Wayne Lordan, Kevin Stott, Kieran Shoemark, Clifford Lee, and Richard Kingscote... and, candidly, most of the very good 'stay at home' domestics... will be underbet on World Pool.

The same is true with trainers. Aidan O'Brien, Charlie Appleby, Dermot Weld, and Andrew Balding are no-no's. Big yesses are Eve Johnson Houghton, Jane Chapple-Hyam, George Boughey, and perhaps more surprisingly, the likes of Sir Michael Stoute, William Haggas and Willie Mullins. Loads of our big guns hiding in plain sight from overseas bettors.

 

How to play?

The easiest way to play this is to compare prices on horses you fancy (or on horses you don't, actually) between exchange and World Pool, and bet where the offer is healthiest. One of the great things about the World Pool is that it is far less susceptible to late price collapses; you'll still see instances of dividends being lower than the last 'show' before the off but it's rarely the deep frustration it can be in the tote payout queue on a rainy December evening at Southwell. A runner showing 12.0 as they enter the stalls is unlikely to return shorter than 10.5, say. If the last bookie show is 15/2 and the exchange shows 9.6, World Pool is the place to play.

It's not impossible that you could make underround books from this sort of cross-referenced cherry picking; or at least fashion a good edge from hedging the top of the market. If you're that way inclined. Me? I'm not especially that way inclined, but I do like an exotic...

...so what about playing combinations of the fancied horses with lesser known connections in the exacta and trifecta pools? Sure, this is a feast and famine existence, but if you hit one you'll likely be dining very well. And it will foot the bill for a lot of near misses and complete blowouts.

 

Examples

Win Pools

Let's take a couple of examples from last year, starting with the Queen Anne, arguably a bad example because the winner, 33/1 Triple Time, was not an easy one to find, here in Blighty at least. His Betfair SP was 36.45, about 10% better but pretty unsexy given his 'double carpet' starting price. On the tote, he paid £35.05, also pretty unattractive in terms of uplift against SP. But closer inspection reveals he was ridden by Neil Callan, one of the great 'clock' riders in Britain (and, day to day, just about the single most underrated in my view). Callan's ability was/is not lost on Hong Kong players whose wagering respect for him is greater than ours, a fact reflected in that return.

Compare that with the opening race on the Saturday, the Chesham Stakes, won by Snellen. Ridden by Gary Carroll and trained by Gavin Cromwell, names far from the overseas radar, he returned 12/1 at SP, 13.88 BSP, and £14.30 on World Pool. That was followed by the Jersey Stakes where Aidan O'Brien's second string, Ace Of Kings, ridden by Wayne Lordan, was a 22/1 scorer. He paid 34 on the exchange and £34.70 on World Pool, a 50% bonus against SP.

Exacta / Trifecta

In truth, it will often be the case that the best value close to the off is with the exchange if you're playing in the win markets. But what about the exacta/trifecta options? In these pools, which are not generally available on exchanges but compete directly with bookmaker-derived computer straight forecast (CSF) and tricast offerings, we have the chance to multiply lesser known connections. Again, a couple of examples will help.

In the Copper Horse Stakes, the closing 1m6f handicap on the 2023 Tuesday, Willie Mullins saddled a 1-2 with the even money favourite obliging ahead of his 5/1 stablemate. Even though this pair was ridden by Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori, essentially the two highest profile jockeys at the meeting, the World Pool exacta paid £15.20 against a miserly CSF of £6.11. That would have been one of the easier 14/1 shots we'll ever have the chance to find.

At the other end of the feasibility spectrum, we had the Norfolk Stakes on Thursday where 150/1 Valiant Force beat 66/1 Malc. What chance in the Norfolk? Norfolk and chance! Anyhoo, someone somewhere copped it (my mate Gavin Priestley who, after flagging 33/1 Bradsell for geegeez readers last year, will be contributing again here for Royal Ascot, also put up Valiant Force on his trends service!), and the CSF paid £3478.24. Decent and well earned. But the World Pool exacta came in at a mouth-watering £5369.60. ¡Ay, caramba!

Below is the full CSF/exacta 'tale of the tape' from last year's Royal meeting. I've rounded the computer straight forecast (CSF) and exacta dividends to the nearest pound, and in the final column have displayed a ratio of exacta to CSF. For example, in the Queen Anne, the opening race on Tuesday, the Exacta (313) paid 2.63 times as much as the CSF (119). Most  notably, from 35 races, only three paid more on the bookie version of the 1-2 bet. And the average uplift was around 77% in favour of the World Pool exacta. I'll be playing these next week. It won't be easy but there's enough reward to justify the risk...

 

You can read much more about the general appeal of exacta over CSF in a two-part article, part 1 of which is here. Part 2 is here.

Multi-Race Action

The placepot (find a placed horse in the first six races) and jackpot (find the first six winners) bets are not part of World Pool per se, but the place variant is an extremely liquid pool during Royal Ascot. Indeed, last year at the meeting the placepot pool was greater than half a million pounds on each of the five days. Dividends ranged from a relatively paltry £93.70 on Tuesday to an impossible-sounding £36,284.30 on Saturday. In the middle, on Gold Cup day, there was a gettable £1,244.80 payout.

A lot of my personal play will be in the multi-race pools, mainly placepot but the Tuesday card can often lend itself to a bold jackpot tilt. Of course, I'll be using Tix, the staking optimisation tool I built with my good friend Nigel Dove (who also built much of the geegeez racecard and form tool ecosystem).

With Tix you choose a unit stake, budget and the pool you want to play (Ascot placepot for example).

 

Then you pick your horses in each leg, adding them to either A, B or C ('A' being your strong fancies, 'B' warm fancies, and 'C' dark horses). You can have just 'A' picks if you like, and/or any combination of A's, B's and C's across the six legs.

 

Once you've done that, it's on to the TICKETS tab to decide which combo's you're playing and whether you want any multipliers. I almost always set mine up like this:

 

When you're happy with everything, hit PLACE ALL BETS (or you can place tickets individually).

You can then review your placed bets and download them to a spreadsheet from the BETS tab:

 

Tix is a free tool, and winning tickets receive a 5% bonus payout. So if you're due £100 back, you'll get £105 into your tote account for bets placed through Tix.

There's much more information here and you can put Tix to work for you here.

 

Closing Thoughts

It's often said about betting that you one needs to choose one's battles; but it is also essential to opt for the right battlefield to optimise winning chances. You don't need me to tell you that finding winners at Royal Ascot is difficult; it's one of the great wagering challenges of the year where good work on Tuesday afternoon can be a distant memory by Saturday evening, and vice versa. Every return counts, so it's crucial to get as much back in odds/dividend terms as possible (what you get back is directly proportionate to what you stake and that is of no consequence here).

Sadly, optimising returns, for many punters, is an epic fail. And, at the end of the day, or of a meeting like Royal Ascot, or of your punting accounting period, it can comfortably be the difference between winning and losing.

In that somewhat preachy (sorry) spirit:

- if you can get concessions with traditional bookmakers, DO!
- win dividends are typically best on the exchanges
- exacta and trifecta dividends are generally MILES better with World Pool
- certain jockeys and trainers - those known to overseas punters - are 'caution advised' in the pools

Bring it on!

p.s. Don't forget to check out Tix, not just for the big meetings but for jackpot, placepot, quadpot, Placepot7 and Scoop6 bets, too. Start betting smarter with Tix here >

Racing Insights, Friday 14/06/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced no qualifiers...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 York
  • 2.40 Sandown
  • 4.35 Chester
  • 5.40 Fairyhouse
  • 6.25 Market Rasen
  • 7.08 Cork

Once again, nothing better than Class 4 from the UK options, so I'm going to look at one of the UK"s joint highest rated contests of the day, the 3.00 York. It's a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Jumbeau, Katey Kontent and Apeeling are all last time winners, but Alfa Kellenic comes here on a hat-trick. Midream made the frame LTO after two successive wins, whilst Thursday’s Child has also won two from three but Al Simmo and Conservationist are winless in seven and eight races respectively.

Al Simmo is one of just two runners (along with LTO winner Jumbeau) to have raced at this grade on their last outing, as Katey Content, Flaccianello, Conservationist, Thursday’s Child and Lady Pink Rose all step up from Class 3, whilst Star of Lady M is up two classes with both Apeeling and hat-trick seeker Alfa Kellenic up three levels today!

Three runners are dropping down in class, though, as Midream was third of six in a Haydock Listed race (beaten by 3.25 lengths), Born To Rock was seventh of nine in a Lingfield Group 3 race and Queen of Mougins was eighth of fourteen in a Listed race at Newbury.

A handful of these are a bit short on handicap experience with Thursday’s Child and Alfa Kellenic having just their second such run, whilst it’s handicap debut day for the class droppers Midream, Born To Rock and Queen of Mougins as well as LTO winner Apeeling.

As we know, Al Simmo is winless in seven, having not scored for 23 months now and she now returns to action for the first time since last September, putting her at a disadvantage about her dozen rivals who have all had at least one run in the last five weeks, but she has at least won over today’s trip in the past, unlike Jumbeau, Born To Rock, Conservationist and Lady Pink Rose, whilst none of this baker’s dozen have won here at York before.

That said, only Star of Lady M (placed once in 4 runs), Al Simmo (2 places from 3), Jumbeau (placed on sole visit), Lady Pink Rose (unplaced on sole visit) and Thursday’s Child (also unplaced on sole visit) have previously raced on the Knavesmire…

Instant Expert suggests that Star of Lady M and Jumbeau have struggled to win on good ground, as has Al Simmo at Class 2, unlike Flaccianello who is two from three at this level. Al Simmo has, however, racked up some wins over today's trip with Midream also winning half of her efforts over 6f.

To ensure I'm not relying on old data, I'm now going to look at the place stats over last two years...

...where Al Simmo still has good numbers despite her losing run. Jumbeau also scores well as does Midream.

Decent standard sprints over a straight track on good ground really shouldn't have a huge draw bias and that seems to be the case here...

...but that's not to say that some stalls don't fare better than others, of course...

...but I'm not sure there's enough there to call any bias and I wouldn't have thought that the draw here could make or break a horse's chances, whereas their running style might and as you may have expected, it's those willing to take the race on early doors that have the best results...

...and this is backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

If we then turned to look at how this field have approached their recent races, then the likes of Appealing and Al Simmo could well in a great position...

Summary

Al Simmo hasn't won in almost two years and I don't see her winning this either, but she's a regular placer and has the ideal pace profile to go well here, so could very well make the frame (bookies paying 4 places) and would be a possible E/W shot at 10/1*.

Others that I like are all placed shorter* than her, such as Midream and Jumbeau who both currently trade at 13/2*.

*Odds taken from Hills (only book open) at 3pm UK time.

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