Detailed day-by-day horse racing reports and information on the Cheltenham Festival, available from Geegeez. Read about the horses, races and events here.
Some Long Range Ante Post Picks for the 2027 Cheltenham Festival
Straight after the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, I had a crack at putting together some ante post plays for last week's jamboree. In the end, none of the picks hit their mark; but that really does only tell half the story, as you can read for yourself here.
The management summary is that you could have had The New Lion at 7/1 (SP 3/1) and Majborough at 8/1 (SP 5/6) from only five suggestions. The other three were Fact To File at 6/1 for the Gold Cup (wrong race, late non-runner anyway), Inothewayurthinkin for the same race (recommended to wait until he'd run as suspected bigger price would be available - eventually ran 3rd at 11/1), and Marine Nationale at 7/1 for the Champion Chase (clear 2nd favourite when scratched a week before the Festival).
It's very much a case of "system working well, send more money" and what follows will be along similar lines.
Champion Hurdle 2027
A year ago the ante post market for the 2026 Champion Hurdle had Lossiemouth at 8/1 in a place but generally 6/1; Brighterdaysahead was 20/1 and Alexei not quoted.
The race was won by Lossiemouth, and in some style. But the bare numbers were relatively workaday: she'd recorded much higher TS figures three times in Ireland earlier in the season and was only 3lb ahead of her triple 160 RPR's in spite of the visually impressive nature of the win. Brighterdaysahead also under-performed against her Irish level while The New Lion improved his RPR but produced a significantly lower TS number than in his Turners win a year prior.
Where I get to with all that is that Lossiemouth is not improving but sets a strong standard; Brighterdaysahead is a capable fly in the ointment but her Festival preps seem to have taken her chance away the last couple of years (she'll be interesting if rested after her Christmas run but I suspect they might 'bottle it' and go Mares Hurdle anyway); and The New Lion continues to slightly underwhelm me.
Sir Gino shouldn't be expected to come back to his best, but if he did he'd have a chance. Not a robust proposition at this stage. Poniros has improvement in him and will be a more likely candidate next year than this, but still doesn't excite.
But one for which half a case at a price could be made is Alexei, who might well have been third but for a very bad error at the last. He's progressive, has strong Cheltenham form and is 20/1.
Of the novices, the only Supreme winner to take the Champion Hurdle the following year in the last 54 years is Constitution Hill, though both Jezki and Buveur d'Air went close in the former en route to the latter twelve months hence. My guess is that Sober Glory will go chasing, so too Old Park Star and Mydaddypaddy. None of them would be on my Champion Hurdle radar in any case.
The Turners has been a better pointer to the following season's Champion but it looked a quantity over quality renewal to my eye. The winner, King Rasko Grey, had been beaten in three of his four previous races, and the 3rd and 4th placed horses were 50/1 and 150/1. I might be wrong - again?! - but this looks, if not pinch of salt form then at least not Champion Hurdle kingmaker form, behind the winner. King Rasko has scope to step up a fair bit off so few runs to date.
The Triumph produces a five-year-old contender most years, and that age group has a physical maturity deficit against their elders without any compensating weight for age allowance. Nothing there is of interest.
State Man will be ten next year - no thank you - and there is nothing else obvious on the radar: perhaps Kabral du Mathan will drop back to two miles but will he have the speed? Maybe...
In what is a deeply unoriginal suggestion, Lossiemouth looks pretty fair at 3/1 assuming she gets to the start line - a big assumption, natch. Of the others, Alexei is mildly tempting.
Champion Chase 2027
The favourites' graveyard at the Festival, it's a race you almost want to land on the second or third in on the day. Obviously that statement makes no sense and we want to get as close as possible to backing the favourite on the day, because that horse will, in the opinion of the market, have the best chance.
This year, Majborough was sent off 5/6 having been 8/1 ante post a year before, and the winner Il Etait Temps was heavily backed into 5/2 on the day - he was 33/1 the week after the 2025 QMCC. The reason for his whopping quote was that, at that point, he'd been off the track since running 3rd to Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle and then going back to back in the Aintree/Punchestown equivalent Grade 1's. He returned at Sandown and took out the end of season Celebration Chase six weeks after the Festival.
In 2027, it seems likely Majborough will go the Ryanair or Gold Cup route, his jumping frailties exposed at the tempo of a Champion Chase. Kopek Des Bordes would be a natural horse in here but Arkle winners have a much better record than placers. Kopek can be expected to win at Punchestown though he may again have to lock horns with the excellent jumping of Kargese. She seems over-priced because there's not really another race for her, Mares' Chase aside (please, no).
The 16/1 about Marine Nationale is also too big an overreaction. He was second choice before absenting a few days ahead of the '26 Fez and he'll surely go very close at Punchestown, in so doing halving his current quote.
L'Eau du Sud is clearly not up to this, Only By Night will probably try to win the Mares Chase in which she was second this year, and Lulamba will be going up in trip. If there's a forgotten horse in this market - an Il Etait Temps if you will - it could be Salvator Mundi. His season was left at the start after defeat at 1/7 odds in November, following which he ran a middling race in the St Stephen's Day Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown (though sent off only 9/2). He absolutely bolted up in a Thurles beginners' chase last month (by 28 lengths from a 128-rated horse) and he was a Grade 1-winning novice hurdler this time last year. He's 50/1.
You could almost dutch 4/1 Kopek des Bordes, 9/2 Il Etait Temps, 12/1 Kargese and 16/1 Marine Nationale at close to even money - and I will be doing a variation of just that - and perhaps try a tiny win only speculative on Salvator Mundi at 50/1.
Gold Cup 2027
This felt very much like a changing of the guard in the Gold Cup ranks. Galopin Des Champs missed the gig, Inothewayurthinkin was wrong all season, Fact To File was re-routed and ejected. Next year, Haiti Couleurs and Grey Dawning will be ten, which is too old.
It would be hard not to be with Gaelic Warrior, a horse which prior to winning the Gold Cup last week had been second in a Fred Winter and a Turners and won an Arkle. Festival form. He'll be nine next year, the same age as Don Cossack, Synchronised, Imperial Commander and Kauto Star (second time) were for their wins - but the years of those victories were 2016, 2012, 2010 and 2009. In other words, the only winner older than eight since 2012 was Don Cossack. Even Galopin Des Champs was beaten as a nine-year-old. So, hard as it is, I'm still looking...
...and the place to look is in the ranks of the rising stars. Half of the Gold Cup winners this century were second season chasers: the shortest of those in the lists currently is 16/1.
That horse is Final Demand, second in the Brown Advisory off a difficult prep. He wasn't noticeably staying on compared to the winner - Kitzbuhel, made all - but perhaps with a better lead up he might be able to improve. Both will need to, as will one of the most under-rated horses in training, Salver. You couldn't put him in multiples but his Brown Advisory run has to be seen to be believed.
In the image below, I've highlighted the furlong by furlong sectional percentages of the winner, Kitzbuhel, and third placed Salver. The faint grey line is 'normalised par' - in other words anything above the faint grey line is above par.
Below the chart is a table of furlong by furlong data. A mile out Salver is eleven lengths off the lead having had to jump Kaid d'Authie when that one fell, and he jumps three from home in last place. His numbers from there are better in every single furlong than the two horses which finished in front of him.
It was an excellent staying performance and implies the three furlongs longer trip of the Gold Cup could bring out more improvement. Third to Majborough in the 2024 Triumph Hurdle (missed '25 Festival) and a dual Grade 2 novice chase winner this term, if the Moores campaign him like a Gold Cup horse he'll have a good chance. He's currently 100/1 (not shown in the image below).
I'm siding with the 1-2-3 in the Brown Advisory against the will-be-nine-year-olds, the beaten-in-the-Gold-Cup-this-years and the will-probably-run-in-the-Ryanairs. Kitzbuhel is 20/1, Final Demand 16/1 and Salver is 100/1.
*
It goes without saying - but I'll emphasise it anyway - that any number of things can go wrong over the course of 360 days, and at least some of them will. Working on a loose basis of a horse having a 65% chance of making the next Festival, you'd be looking at anything from 2/1 Lossiemouth (what price is she if lining up in twelve months' time?) to 66/1 Salver...
Caveat massively emptor!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Salver_BrownAdvisory_Sectionals.png7051213Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2026-03-16 13:35:322026-03-16 14:31:43Taking A Flyer on the 2027 Cheltenham Festival
• 24 of the last 32 winners won last time out
• 9 of the last 17 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• Irish have won 10 of the last 13 runnings
• French-breds have filled 16 of the last 27 places (last 11 runnings)
• 15 of the last 21 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 14 of the last 18 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
• Respect Nicky Henderson (7 winners), Willie Mullins (6 winners), Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Alan King-trained runners
• The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (2022 winner Vauban won that race and 2023 winner Lossiemouth was runner-up in it, 2024 winner Majborough was 3rd in it)
• JP McManus has owned 3 of the last 10 winners
• 2 of the last 6 winners were fillies
• 9 of the last 14 winners ran in the Spring Hurdle (3 winners)
• 10 of the last 14 winners had raced by Christmas time
• 8 of the last 11 winners began their careers in France
• Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
• Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 12 years
• Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 6 runnings (2 with Rich Ricci-owned horses)
Negatives….
• Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
• Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
• Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
• Just 3 of the last 21 winner returned bigger than 12/1 – last year’s winner 100/1
• Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 16
• Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners (to have run in the race) have all lost (all unplaced too)
2:00 – William Hill County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV
• The Irish have won 13 of the last 19 runnings
• 10 of the last 11 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (6) or Dan Skelton (4)
• Willie Mullins has won 8 of the last 16 runnings
• 20 of the last 25 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
• 15 of the last 20 winners were rated in the 130’s
• 9 of the last 18 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
• 8 of the last 17 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
• 20 of the last 27 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 13 of the last 27 winners aged 5
• 8 of the last 12 winners had run at Cheltenham before
• 13 of the last 19 winners Irish-trained
• 11 of the last 18 winners started their careers in France
• 15 of the last 20 winners were priced in double-figures
• 14 of the last 22 winners began their careers on the flat
• Look for Mullins, Skelton, AJ Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
• Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
• 10 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
• 13 of the last 25 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
• 14 of the last 19 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 5 of the last 10 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
• Paul Nicholls is 4 from 33 (+14pts) since 2004-2014
• Willie Mullins is 6 from 61 (+42.25pts) – he’s won 8 of the last 16
• Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 4 of the last 10 winners
• 14 of the last 22 winners were ex-flat horses
• No back-to-back winners ever since first run in 1920
Negatives….
• Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
• Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
• Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-27) since 2011
• Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-35) this century
• Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 40 in last 18 runnings
• Since 1960 only 6 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
• Since 1961, only 11 winners had run at the Festival before
• Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
• Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
• Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 4 winners have defied this stat
• Just 3 winning outright favourites in last 24
• Just 4 of the last 18 winners returned a single-figure price
• Only 5 previous runnings
• Willie Mullins trained 3 winners
• Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
• 4 of the last 5 winners have been 2nd favourite
• All 5 winners won last time out
• 4 of the 5 winners rated 150+
• 4 of the 5 winners owned by JP McManus (past 4)
• All 5 winners aged 7-8
• All 5 winners Irish-trained
• 4 of the 5 winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before
• Just one winning favourite (2025)
Negatives….
• UK-trained runners are 0-16
• 9+ year-olds are 0-12
• Gordon Elliott is 0-6
================================================
The 2026 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
£4 Discount With Promo Code: RTCFBG26
Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.
Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.
2025 Winner: JASMIN DE VAUX (6/1) Trainer – Willie Mullins Jockey – Paul Townend UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 11 of the last 21 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
• 18 of the last 21 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
• 3 of the last 5 ran in the Golden Cygnet Novice Hurdle (Nat Lacy) DRF
• 17 of the last 21 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
• 7 of the last 21 winners had run in the Hyde, Bristol or Classic earlier that season
• 10 of the last 14 winners had won a Point
• Horses rated 152+ are 3-5
• 9 of the last 12 winners trained in Ireland
• 10 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
• 11 of the last 15 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
• 10 of the last 21 came from the top 5 in the betting
• 10 of the last 21 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
• 16 of the last 21 had run in a race over 3m
• 18 of the last 20 winners were aged 6 (11) or 7 (7) years-old
• 15 of the last 21 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
• 17 of the last 21 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 13 of the last 21 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
• 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 4 of the last 20 favourites won
• Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 3 runners!)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• No winning fav in the last 11 runnings
Negatives….
• Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
• Challow Hurdle winners have poor Festival record
• Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
• Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
• Gordon Elliott is 1-from-16
• Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 21)
• Nicky Henderson is 0-from-15 in the last 13 years
• 5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 20)
• Only 4 of the last 20 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year
• 21 of the last 26 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
• 21 of the last 25 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 21 of the last 26 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
• 13 of the last 20 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
• 25 of the last 26 winners were Grade 1 winners
• Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
• 21 of the last 25 had won or placed at the Festival before
• 21 of the last 25 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
• 23 of the last 26 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
• 16 of the last 18 winners ran 3 or less times that season
• 18 of the last 29 winners were bred in Ireland
• 18 of the last 25 winners won last time out
• 12 of the last 23 winners were favourites (52%)
• 14 of the last 21 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
• ALL of the last 26 winners were aged 9 or younger
• 25 of the last 26 winners aged between 7-9 years-old (12 of last 13 aged 7 or 8)
• 23 of the last 26 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
• Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
• 5 of the last 15 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
• Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
• Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won 6 of the last 7 between them
• The last 7 winners Irish trained (9 of the last 10 Irish-trained too)
Negatives….
• Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
• No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 79)
• Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
• Just one past winner for Gordon Elliott (Don Cossack)
• Horses rated 166 or less are only 7 from last 59 – but last year’s winner rated 160
• Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
• Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
• Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
• Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
• Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
• Just 3 of the last 25 winners placed in the race before
• No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase
4:40 - Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV
2025 Winner: WONDERWALL (28/1) Trainer – S Curling Jockey – Mr R James UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses…..
• 31 of the last 35 winners were aged under 11 years-old
• 29 of the last 40 won last time out
• 9 of the last 11 winners aged 10 or 11
• 15 of the last 18 winners ran in February
• 21 of the last 23 winners Irish or French bred
• The last 19 winners were yet to win over this trip (rules)
• 8 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
• 10 of the last 17 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
• 29 of the last 37 started out in Points or Hunter Chases
• 15 of the last 20 winners ran 34 days or less ago
• Respect the Irish runners (won 10 of last 15)
• 15 of the last 20 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
• 9 of the last 11 winners aged 10-11
• 10 of the last 17 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 11 of the last 16 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 13, rated 138+)
• 3 back-to-back winners in the last 14
• 4 of the last 19 winners owned by JP McManus
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
Negatives….
• Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
• Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
• Just 2 winners in the last 49 years aged 12 or older
• 30 of the last 39 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
• Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 38 runnings
• Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
• Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
• Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
• British bred horses are 1-90 (last 23 runnings) (Sine Nomine, 2024)
• Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
• Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 276 since 1990
• Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
• Gordon Elliott has never won the race
5:20 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV
2025 Winner: WODHOOH (9/2) Trainer – Gordon Elliott Jockey – Danny Gilligan UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 15 of the last 17 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
• 12 of the last 15 winners placed in the top 3 last time
• All of the last 17 winners carried 11-1 or more
• 3 of the last 8 winners had top-weight
• 7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-7 to 11-10
• All 17 winners aged 7 or younger (5-7)
• 14 of the last 17 winners aged 5 or 6
• 11 or the last 14 winners rated 138+
• 15 of the last 17 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
• 7 of the last 12 winners were Irish-based Novices
• Irish have won 10 of the last 15 (7 making handicap debuts)
• Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
• 14 of the 17 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
• 9 of the 17 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 12 winners had run over a longer trip that season
• 9 of the 17 winners were rated 133-139
• 9 of the 17 winners returned at a double-figure price (13 of the last 17 were 16/1 or less)
• 5 and 6 year-olds have won 15 of last 17 runnings
• Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
• Willie Mullins is 4 from 31 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 15 runnings)
• Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
• Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 13 years
• Gordon Elliott has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 7
• Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 11 of the last 13 between them
• JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 7
Negatives….
• Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
• Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 77
• Only one winner in last 14 rated 136 or lower (since become 0-145)
• Just 1 winning fav in the 17-year history (9-15 returned in double-figures)
• Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
• Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-121
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/sizingjohn_2017goldcup.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-13 05:00:272026-03-13 09:43:502026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 13th March 2026)
And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.
Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...
1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)
Previewed by Dave Renham.
Let me start with the strongest past race trends:
- 14 of the last 18 winners were priced with an SP 10/1 or shorter.
- There have been 5 winning favourites in the last 11.
- 9 of the last 18 winners raced at Leopardstown LTO. This means that 50% of the winners have come from only 22% of the total runners.
- 30 horses have come into the race unbeaten and 7 have won. Backing all 30 would have yielded a BSP profit of £18.77 and returns of 62p in the £.
- 5 winners for Willie Mullins, albeit from 55 runners, and 4 from 19 for Nicky Henderson.
- Female horses have won 2 of the last 6 races and they had a 1-2-3 in 2023
Poniros was a shock 100/1 winner last year but generally, as the trends have suggested, this race tends to be dominated by horses nearer the top of the market. It looks wide open this year and here are the main contenders:
Minella Study - Minella Study is three from three over hurdles, including an impressive win at the course last time out. That race has worked out fairly well and other positives are that he has generally jumped well and seems to stay. He looks a very fair price to me as I think if he was trained by either Henderson or Skelton, he would be shorter.
Maestro Conti - Maestro Conti is part owned by Sir Alex Ferguson and trained by Dan Skelton. He started off his life in France, winning at Moulins before making it two from two at Kempton just after Christmas. Last time out he won the JCB Triumph Trial at Cheltenham, finishing off strongly to make three from three in his career, which as noted earlier is a positive trend for this race. Along with Manilla Study, he represents a second decent chance for the Brits.
Proactif - Unbeaten in two starts, so that’s a positive trends-wise. His win at Fairyhouse in January looks the best trial and he won that quite impressively. Comments after that win from connections were positive, despite them feeling he was still a little green. Trained by the master Willie Mullins, he looks a solid enough market leader.
Selma De Vary - Had five runs in France before moving to Willie Mullins, the last of which was super impressive when coming from last to first and sluicing up by nearly 10 lengths. Her first run for the Irish maestro was a decent second at the beginning of February at Leopardstown. She is expected to come on a bundle for that. Matches most of the trends so is definitely one to consider seriously.
Macho Man - A third Mullins runner with a chance. Was second to Proactif at Fairyhouse and hence has around 3 lengths to find on that run.
Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners
Triumph Hurdle Pace Map
Triumph Hurdle Selection
Willie Mullins has won the last four renewals and five out of the last six. Hence, we need to take all his fancied runners seriously. Selma De Vary is my preferred option at the prices. She ticks lots of the boxes and I think she will improve a ton from her last run.
There are guaranteed daily placepot pools, and you can play with stakes as low as a penny. All winning tickets placed via Tix receive a 5% bonus on returns.
Win £200 today at Cheltenham in our best stake-to-return Tix competition
Just bet £5 or more through the Tix app. The highest ROI ticket each day will receive £200 in tote credit added to their account.
*
2.00 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)
Previewed by David Massey.
This year’s County Hurdle should be run at a very solid pace, with quite a few of those towards the foot of the handicap likely to go forward. That’s been a good tactic over the first two days, but as I type this up, the wind is getting up and it’s blowing quite hard down the track, so the front-runners are going to be feeling the force of it as they turn in.
So I’m looking for something that can sit fairly handy in behind the leaders, getting some cover, that’s got Cheltenham form. Plus something that’s got a bit of added stamina needed to win this and that’s nicely weighted. Step forward Jubilee Alpha.
She’s always had a bit of quality about her - a winner at Listed level, placed at Grade 2 in bumpers - and for all she hasn’t won this season, she’s had some tough tasks made harder by the fact she isn’t the biggest for carrying big weights. Twice this season she’s humped 12st around, and I think she’ll appreciate the fact she’s only got 10-11 to carry here, a far lesser burden for one of her size. A winner over 2m4f here last April, she’ll not mind the ground either; yes, there’s some rain coming, but this strong wind is going to blow it through and it’ll dry it up very quickly too. It won’t ride much slower than good in my opinion by Friday afternoon. Hopefully she can put a smile on Paul Nicholls’ face, as there wasn’t one on Thursday after No Drama This End, I can assure you.
Punters have started to cotton on to Tellherthename too, on his first start for Dan Skelton. A very useful novice for Ben Pauling, it never really happened for him when moved to Jonjo last year, but the quotes coming from the trainer have been very positive. It appears he’s working well and has refound his mojo. If that’s the case, they have a well-handicapped horse on their hands, and one that has the potential to be a gamble on the day.
Sinatra is the more obvious Skelton runner in the race, and his form has been franked by Act Of Innocence this week, third to that one in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon last month. As an aside, how well handicapped is second-home Glance At Midnight? No wonder the Skeltons went to 245k to buy it not long after. He will race close to the pace, without necessarily being at the head of it. A mark of 133 looks very workable, and for your placepots and each-way multis on the day, he’s a must.
County Hurdle Recent Winners
County Hurdle Pace Map
County Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Jubilee Alpha
Matt's Tix Pix: Mixing up the Skeltons and Mullins
Not many people's favourite race at the Festival but, given that - unlike all the gelding G1's - its runners can actually reproduce, it is an important one for the breed. The Irish have had a chokehold on matters since its inception in 2021 and they are again well represented at the top of the market.
Dinoblue is a warm favourite in her bid to defend her title, something none of the three to attempt that previously have managed to do. All five winners to date were aged seven or eight. Dinoblue is nine. Those facts won't stop her but they do hint at the difficulty in keeping mares sweet to that sort of age: most of the half decent ones have gone to the paddocks by this time and it will be this mare's turn soon enough.
In her favour, she's versatile with regards to ground and trip, and her Festival form reads 9221. Against that is the fact she was sent off 11/8, 7/2, 15/8 and 6/4 - favourite each time; based on those odds, I guess she's just about on her expected winners score! Excluding seasonal debuts, her form in the past two campaigns reads 411111, very often at prohibitively cramps odds. It's not her fault that she's faced limited opposition but it does leave the door ajar to a potentially more battle hardened mare.
Step forward Spindleberry, unbeaten in five chase starts before pulling up in the Irish Gold Cup last time. That was an odd prep for the Mares' Chase but it also nods to the esteem in which she's held by connections. But it was still an odd prep! Let's pretend that didn't happen and instead judge her on the prior quintet of chase wins. She was given a huge RPR of 160 for winning a Listed race at Doncaster, but her two next best figures are 152 and 145. The two horses behind her at Donny to have run since have both been beaten favourites on their subsequent starts and I'm calling bluff on the big number. I also really don't like that 'P' last time. If she's better than I think she is, fair enough.
Panic Attack is even older than Dinoblue - she's ten - and is enjoying an Indian Winter (if you see what I mean) having won three in a row including, in pre-decimal money, the Mackeson and the Hennessy - remember when booze firms sponsored horse races? As if that heady autumnal double wasn't enough, you have to watch her romp at Newbury last time to believe it. Not in terms of the strength of the performance or the ratings it produced, but just from a sheer joie de vivre perspective. You can catch it here - I just watched it again (again) and it is a thing of beauty. As impressive as she unarguably was, the level of that form - and of her two big handicap wins, off 135 and 139 - is at least 7lb shy of the pick of Dinoblue's.
Interesting, if hard to peg, is Diva Luna. The Ben Pauling inmate was 3rd in last year's Dawn Run - a race contested by the last three Mares' Chase winners a season prior to their big Friday successes. She's done all that's been asked of her in two facile successes over fences this season but has recorded barely a murmur on the Richter scale speed or form wise in this context. She's been off the track 92 days - "whacked a joint" according to the trainer - which is not ideal. But he's still talking up her chance and I respect that.
The heart breaker for me would be Only By Night, backed at 100/1 here for the Champion Chase. To be fair, she'd have had place chances at best there, whereas in this field she is a credible win option. Her form against the boys - Majborough, Jango Baie, L'Eau du Sud et al - reads very well in this company, but she is stepping up from two to two and a half miles for the first time over fences (she was thumped in a heavy ground 2m4f G1 novice hurdle two years ago).
I think she'll stay - she's normally waited with and will be given every chance to get home - and she handles most ground. It's interesting that they've returned the cheekpieces that didn't seem to help especially in her first try with them last time.
The novice July Flower won a trip and (other) track novice chase here at the November meeting before running a respectable third to Romeo Coolio and Irish Panther in a G1 at Christmas. Neither of those showed up well this week and she looks to have a little to find with more experienced mares.
Mares' Chase Recent Winners
*New race in 2021
Mares' Chase Pace Map
It appears they'll go quick, with both Dinoblue and Diva Luna usual taking their fields along. There are two or three others who can show themselves early, too, so it'll likely be a fair test.
Mares Chase 2026 Pace Map
Mares' Chase Selection
This is quite a messy race. Dinoblue has the best form, Panic Attack has created the winningest (sic) visual impression, and there are a good few up-and-comers with place prospects at least. The top two in the market have won four of the five renewals to date, and the third pick won the other one, so it may not be a race to get too cute with. That said, I'm going to chance Only By Night each way for small money. She showed plenty against the fellas in both the Arkle and a G1 at Punchestown last term to suggest she's not far off the pick of these mares.
Suggestion: Try Only By Night each way at 15/2
Matt's Tix Pix: Dinoblue on A; Only By Night, Diva Luna and Panic Attack on B
3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
"What's this?"
"I durrn't knur, it's all coover'd in't mood"
"It's a pottairr-toe, lad".
You need to be as old as me to get that reference to a crisps advert from the 1970's, but any vintage should by now be able to grasp the nub of geegeez's approach to solving the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, affectionately known as "the potato race" - they're a spuds firm, you see...
The key to betting this race is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season.
Just two winner returneds a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013 - and both of those were well backed Willie's in the lead up to the race - so we're going to be taking a swing. In fact, I'd played last year's 6/1 scorer Jasmin De Vaux at 33/1 after the Dublin Racing Festival. Bully for me, though I did highlight his case on this basis prior to last year's win right here, and that's a nod to the sideways thinking required here.
So here's the plan: we're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. This was JdV last year, including his Alby win:
Won a big field maiden hurdle, 4th in back to back G1 novices at shorter, won a big field Albert Bartlett.
And in 2024, Stellar Story at 33/1 was another archetypal winner:
Small field Graded form in defeat, a big field maiden hurdle win to start the season, and then boom. Like JdV, SS had won a bumper and also an Irish point.
Both of those horses ran fourth in the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy at DRF, and this year's 4th has a similar looking profile at a similarly huge price. He's called Riskaway, and he won a big field maiden in the autumn before getting outpaced in a four-runner dawdle over 2m4f - and then seemed to weaken late on in the aforementioned G1. It is always the case with these types of play that they could massively bomb out, but he fits the identikit and he's... 50/1!
Also from that DRF G1 is Kazansky, like Riskaway trained by Gordon Elliott. He was second at Leopardstown, doing his good work late and suggesting the longer trip and presumed quicker tempo may play to his A game.
The other angle into the Albert Bartlett, which sometimes overlaps with the one showcased above, is "the wrong Willie". Mullins has won this in recent years with horses priced at 18/1 and 16/1 as well as 5/1 and 6/1 - both the shorties well punted in the lead up to the race. Paul Townend has ridden three of that quartet, though he was second rider behind Ruby in the first of the years. Doctor Steinberg is Closutton's obvious contender, having won the Nathaniel Lacy. But he has no form in big field hurdle races, the tempo here almost certain to be a new experience for him. He might cope, and he might be very good and just win - but as I hope you can see by now, that's not really the way to bet this one.
Perhaps the horse Sortudo beat in his maiden - Jalon d'Oudairies - can step up. A dual bumper winner in 2023, he was 3rd to Jasmin de Vaux in the 2024 Champion Bumper before missing the entirety of the following season. This term, after that pipe opener behind Sortudo, he just got outsped by the decent Frankie John over 2m4f before winning his maiden by 27 lengths at 1/10 odds!
The G1 element comes from his Champion Bumper run, and we have to take a bit on trust that he can run to that level over obstacles: the evidence suggests he probably can. Seven-year-olds have comfortably the best win strike rate even if more six-year-olds have won the 'spuds'; that's because the latter age group has been represented by nearly two and a half times as many runners. You can see from the trends below that the winners in 2024, 2022, 2018, 2015 and 2010 were all 7yo, and returned 33/1, 18/1, 33/1, 14/1 and 33/1 respectively.
Road Exile has a 'sort of' profile for this race. The missing component is any sort of form over a distance - he's run exclusively at two ish miles to date under Rules - but he was a rallying nose second in a 2m2f bumper and also won his point over three miles... so maybe he is more interesting that I thought! He managed to get it done in a 26-runner maiden hurdle before being predictably run out of it by the smart flat horse Sober in a three horse G2 over the minimum. He's definitely worth chancing on this big step up in trip.
The one I like most from the top of the market, and aged seven coincidentally, is Thedeviluno. Big field maiden win? Tick - and beat Skylight Hustle no less. Outpaced in small field Graded race? Tick - and by Doctor Steinberg no less. Shown reserves of stamina? Tick - when running on from the rear to win the G2 River Don at Doncaster by five lengths on very soft ground.
Another Elliott runner, Spinningayarn, was quite well backed last week. He has the big field maiden win and followed that up in a five-runner rated novice hurdle. That's decent form and there'll doubtless be more to come, but it's not the profile we're looking for here.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Always a ton of pace in the 'spuds' and it'll take a lot of getting.
Albert Bartlett 2026 Pace Map
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection
If I was betting one at the head of the betting, it would be Thedeviluno, hands down. But I'm not. Even though he's having a tricky week (at time of writing, after Wednesday's racing), I'm playing three big-priced Gordies against the field in Kazansky, Jalons d'Oudairies and Road Exile. Thedevilunotakethehindmost.
Suggestion: Roll with something slow at a price. Some suggestions in the sentence above.
Matt's Tix Pix: Thedeviluno, Kazansky on A, many more on B.
The highlight of the whole week for many is the Gold Cup, a test of stamina and class over more than three and a quarter miles.
Defending champion Inothewayurthinkin has been a shell of his dual Festival-winning self this season, beaten 53 lengths in the John Durkan, 41 lengths in the Savills, and falling at the last when exhausted and beaten in the Irish Gold Cup. It's true that, prior to winning his Gold Cup, he'd not won - that previous season being beaten 36 lengths, 15 lengths and seven lengths in the same three races. Whilst there remains an argument that he's a spring horse, this would be a near Lazarine comeback.
From the same stable as Galopin is Gaelic Warrior, routed here as Fact To File went to the Ryanair. Once thought 'gone at the game', he's quietly amassed a formidable record of ten wins from 18 starts, five of them at Grade 1 level. That top tier quintet includes the Aintree Bowl last spring over 3m1f, and he was two noses away from King George glory in that scintillating finish at Christmas. He's since run a nice prep when a five length second to Fact To File in the Irish Gold Cup, with plenty of these behind him that day.
It must be many a year since two British-trained horses have featured so prominently in the betting and there was little more than a half length between The Jukebox Man and Jango Baie in the King George. That the former won and the latter was out of the frame illustrates what a bobby dazzler of a finish it was. TJM, famously owned by Harry Redknapp, comes here on a five-timer and is unbeaten in his first four chase starts including the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) as well as the King George, both over three miles at Kempton.
He looked a strong enough stayer at Christmas, getting up on the line having not been the quickest over the final fence, but we have to guess at his stamina reserves on a stiffer track and with more than an extra quarter mile to run. He was agonisingly chinned in the Albert Bartlett of 2024, on heavy ground, so there's obvious stamina in the locker.
I wonder how many horses turned up in the Gold Cup having won the Arkle a year earlier? That's the non-standard route taken by Jango Baie, who was outpaced until that two mile novice chase fell apart in front of him. That is not to decry his performance, under a brilliant Nico de Boinville ride; it is simply a fact that without his shuddering blunder Majborough would have won, and further that Only By Night seems to need delivering literally on the line to get her nose in front. Candidly, I'm not sold on his form or his stamina capabilities in what looks likely to be a bit of a war of attrition. If I'm wrong, hats off, but the Ascot run could have flattered him (main market rival pulled up), and he was close but still behind three other horses in the King George.
I am a big fan of Haiti Couleurs but not in a fast ground Gold Cup. I can see him winning very good races after today but surely he'll be run off his feet by quicker and classier, but less tough, horses.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection
I don't really have a strong opinion, and only a token suggestion is the classy Gaelic Warrior. He doesn't have the stamina of some of these but he ought to travel beautifully through the race. You could make some sort of case for most of them, though.
4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)
Previewed by Rory Delargy.
Wonderwall was a slightly surprising winner of this last year and returns to defend his crown. His form over fences in the UK was nothing special, carrying an official rating of just 118 into this contest, but he was transformed in points by Sam Curling and was a worthy winner from Its On The Line and Willitgoahead who both reoppose. The winning margin was a neck, but Wonderwall idled before rallying to win and he must be considered a player with Rob James again in the saddle. He’s raced just once this season, winning a point at Dromahane in November, but connections report that he is “in terrific form and primed for tomorrow."
Curling is a talented trainer of pointers and staying chasers and also has another ex-English runner here in Wrappedupinmay, who left Paul Nicholls last year with a rating of 118, and has improved in points for Curling, with his only defeat coming first time up in a ladies’ open. He’s beaten Ryehill and Mac’s Charm on his last two starts between the flags on soft and heavy ground, and will relish any rain that falls, but it’s worth noting that the runners-up in those points were well beaten in the Tetratema Cup Hunters Chase at the weekend.
Its On The Line has been runner-up in this race for the last three years and it could be argued that he should have won last season, running on strongly to join Wonderwall up the hill but then outbattled by that rival. Nonetheless, his record here ought to be considered a positive rather than a negative, and he’s still young enough to succeed, having his first run in this when a raw six-year-old. Derek O’Connor is considered the finest amateur riding in Ireland and is always a positive here, but his only win in this race, surprisingly, came aboard Zemsky 15 years ago.
Its On The Line has been beaten twice in points this season but won a well-contested hunter at Down Royal at Christmas, beating Willitgoahead and Con’s Roc. That pair are also of interest, with the former third in this last year fairly shortly after joining Gordon Elliott. He flopped at Aintree and Punchestown before returning to form at Down Royal and has claims at his best, but it’s hard to bank on from the Elliott stable this week, a remark which also applies to Chemical Energy.
CON’S ROC was an eyecatcher at Down Royal, forced to switch between the last two fences and running on best of all. He failed to qualify for this race last year, despite an impressive point win over Willitgoahead at Limerick, needing to win a point after that but finishing second to Rocky’s Howya, who was only 4th at Limerick. That hunter win counted towards this year’s qualification and he sealed his place with another hunter chase win (at Fairyhouse). Darragh Allen is his regular rider and I’m quite sweet on his chances, with the collateral form stacking up well, and the extra yardage likely to suit this sound jumper.
Panda Boy was a useful handicap chaser who has won two hunter chases since switching to this sphere, beating good yardsticks in Hunter’s Yarn at Naas and Lifetime Ambition at Thurles. He has a mixed record in big fields and I was interested to hear Patrick Mullins say he thought the horse was enjoying taking on fewer rivals in his new role. He can sulk, as he did in the Grand National a couple of years back, getting badly behind, but is very useful on his day. My main concern with him is that John Gleeson has limited experience over fences under rules, with just one win to his name to date.
Stattler is now with Faye Bramley and the mount of Patrick Mullins, but he was workmanlike at best winning a hunter at Fakenham last month and doesn’t look the force of old. Barton Snow is a prolific winner in points and hunters for Joe O’Shea but while he’s won at a sharp 3m, he’s a winner over two miles here and there has to be a question about his ability to stay this extended trip. O’Shea also has Gracchus de Balme, who won the Aintree Foxhunter last year, but he’s a moody sort who disappointed last time and was readily beaten by Music Drive over C&D in May. Music Drive was fourth in this race under Ellie Callwood last year and is clearly suited by track and trip, so needs a second look, but Callwood lacks experience and looked rather weak in the finish last year.
Golden Son is likely to be ridden forward by Olive Nicholls for her father, and he’s won both starts in hunters this year. He could do better, but I think it will stretch his stamina to the limit if he tries to make all, and he might be more appealing at Aintree or Punchestown. Stablemate Shearer is useful, but there is no real reason to expect him to better his creditable fifth in this race 12 months ago. The others are all 40/1 or bigger, and while a couple of those are capable of outrunning their odds, the above look the main contenders on paper.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map
The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.
The Irish have won 10 of the last 15 renewals with Elliott and Mullins responsible for 4 wins each.
Mullins has targeted, and won, this race with some very decent horses since it's inception (Don Poli & Galopin Des Champs) and it's obviously a race he likes to win while keeping one eye on the future.
Before the Festival started I took an in depth look at the Mullins handicap winners and part of this research found that all 8 handicap hurdle winners he's trained over the last 9 years had exactly the same profile. We can cover all 4 of his winners of this particular race going back to his first winner in 2011 using the same stats but concentrating solely on the 5 and 6yo's he's sent to this race. If we slightly adjust these stats it shows:
All 4 winners of the Martin Pipe were 5-6yo
All 4 had not previously run in a handicap
All 4 had been rested at least 20 days since their last start
All 4 were rated 134+
All 4 were 12/1 or shorter
All 4 last ran over hurdles at 2m-3m
Applying these 6 simple stats to the Mullins runners since 2009 would have found all 4 winners and 2 places from just 11 such runners.
So what does it mean for this year's race?
Mullins has 5 runners this year and we can see that it's only KEL HISTOIRE that ticks all the boxes from those 6 race trends.
He's finished 5th in two 2 mile Grade 3's, where he's looked a little outpaced, and he should appreciate this step up to 2m4f here. Having a very strong trends profile and being owned by JP McManus (like 2 of the last 7 winners) he's obviously attracted the attention of the bookmakers and is towards the top of the betting market. Although the favourite hasn't won since 2011 (Mullins trained that winner), the race has tended to go to the fancied runners with 5 of the last 8 winners returning at 8/1 or shorter.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection
It's a race for the plot horses from the big Irish stables and Kel Histoire is another runner who fits that bill. It looks very much like Mullins is looking to improve on his current tally of 4 winners in the race with a runner that will be well worth keeping an eye on when he goes chasing.
Suggestion: KEL HISTOIRE 1pt
*
And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2026. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.
Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham and Gavin Priestley are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.
Be lucky.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/galopindeschamps_langerdan_cheltenhamMartinPipe2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2026-03-12 16:53:272026-03-12 17:18:34Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day Four Preview, Tips
Day Three, Thursday, and it's a case of New Courses for Old as we 'change ends' for the second half. Fresh ground, then, probably nicely watered so no excuses - apart from the obvious (picking the wrong horse).
1.20 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)
Previewed by Rory Delargy.
The market for the Dawn Run has been completely dominated by Bambino Fever since it opened and it’s obvious why, given she was good enough to humble the geldings in the Champion Bumper last season. However, while she has taken perfectly well to hurdles, she doesn’t have such compelling claims on the form she’s shown over timber and I’m loath to take bumper form as gospel when dealing with hurdlers. She is still the likeliest winner on paper, but I’d have her a few spots bigger on my tissue, and her price makes the quest for an each-way alternative a necessity.
Just a note on her Timeform rating for this race - until modifying her final rating after declarations, Timeform’s assessment of her hurdles form, which consists of a defeat at the hands of Oldschool Outlaw and a maiden hurdle win from a bunch of modest mares who have failed to win any race subsequently, is to award her an adjusted rating of 156p. Her published rating prior to decs was a whopping 19lb lower and that is a more accurate reflection of her hurdle form. I’m not a fan of inventing ratings based on what you expect to happen and it’s a bugbear of mine that Timeform occasionally do it when their methodology is tried and trusted. She deserves one of their big “P” symbols, but not the inflated rating on the racecard.
The best hurdles form in the race, unsurprisingly, is represented by Oldschool Outlaw, who was holding Bambino Fever all the way up the straight at Naas in December and improved on that when winning a Fairyhouse Grade 3 by 9 lengths from Place de La Nation last time. She did have a fitness advantage over Bambino Fever when winning on debut, having won a Navan bumper the previous month, but she’s also entitled to improve having only made her racecourse debut a year ago. I’d want to see a few of Gordon Elliott’s run better on Wednesday before getting involved, but she needs plenty of respect.
Carrigmoorna Spruce would be an attractive bet if Skylight Hustle were to win or run well in the Turners, having finished second to that gelding at Leopardstown over Christmas, but it’s Henry de Bromhead’s pair that I think are overlooked in this contest.
Echoing Silence cost a fortune after winning a point and has taken both starts over hurdles, beating subsequent winners first time and a good yardstick in Switch From Diesel at Punchestown. She comes here fresh, as does stablemate Full of Life, who was much improved when landing the Feathard Lady Hurdle at Down Royal in October, when seeming to benefit from aggressive tactics over this trip.
Full of Life has been tried at up to 2.75m and over fences, but Henry admitted he had got her requirements wrong and that dropping her in trip over hurdles has been a revelation. That Down Royal race is a good guide, throwing up the likes of Brighterdaysahead and Magical Zoe in recent years (both of whom looked unfortunate not to win this). This season’s renewal looked strong, with six of the runners arriving on the back of a win. Full of Life beat Carrigmoorna Spruce there, but there has been no artificial enhancing of her rating as a result, and she looks the clear value at the current odds.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: 1pt e/w Full of Life @ 33/1 (Hills ¼ odds 1,2,3; 25/1 general 1/5 odds 1,2,3,4)
Matt's Tix Pix: I'm spreading out in a race where the favourite has missed more often than not.
There are guaranteed daily placepot pools, and you can play with stakes as low as a penny. All winning tickets placed via Tix receive a 5% bonus on returns.
Win £100 each day of Cheltenham in our best stake-to-return Tix competition
Just bet £5 or more through the Tix app. The highest ROI ticket each day will receive £100 in tote credit added to their account.
[£200 prize on Gold Cup Day!]
*
2.00 Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase (Handicap, 2m 4f)
Previewed by David Massey.
Sometimes it pays to look beyond the obvious when looking at Cheltenham races and sometimes it doesn’t; just keep it simple, stupid. I think the Jack Richards is looking like the latter. Try not to look for anything too clever and just back the best horses, with the best form, that jump really well.
And with that, I think my main pick for this is going to be Anthony Honeyball’s Jordan’s Cross. He continues to improve with each start and might well be four from four this year but for a final-fence fall here in November.
The trainer wouldn’t have been too troubled by that, given that’s really been his only major mistake in those four starts. You can argue he was a bit novicey on debut at Aintree, but that’s expected, and stablemate Kdeux Saint Frey (also in here, and not without a chance) won that race, taking the prize back to Dorset in any case.
His form since has worked out well. A win at Doncaster next time saw him beat Go West by the minimum margin, and the runner-up has since won well at Musselburgh. A brave win over Quebecois over this C&D last time out received a boost when the runner-up was beaten under a length by a rejuvenated Johnnywho, in the Ultima on Tuesday, form that looks all the better now. The way he responded to pressure there suggests he’s not going to shy away from the final challenges the hill will give him, and all in all, there’s just a lot to like about both the horse and his chances.
Wingmen has long looked the sort for this, but after a dreadful Tuesday for Gordon Elliott, Brighterdaysahead the only, er, bright spot in an otherwise sea of mediocrity, how can you have any confidence in the yard? I suppose, if Wednesday was better for him you could have a second look at this classy sort, but I’ve had to park him now, and look elsewhere for dangers.
The question over Stencil is whether he’ll stay this trip or not, but he’s always threatened to make a better chaser than hurdler and so it is now starting to prove. He was a bit keen when second to Vanderpoel at Ascot in December and that didn’t help his finishing effort, but he got it right when dotting up at Chepstow last time out, strong at the finish and coming right away after the last to beat Juby Ball an easy 6½ lengths. The runner-up went and won by eighteen lengths next time too, making Stencil’s 4lb rise look something of a gift. This big field will mean he can be put to sleep at the back and he should settle better, giving him every chance of staying the trip. A big chance if he does and I suggest whatever you back, he has to be a saver.
There are a few front-runners here and backing one of them is clearly risky. You'll know your fate pretty early on, but I can’t resist a few quid on Ben Solo. He’s impressed me this year with some slick jumping from the front, winning nicely at Chepstow in November (decent form), and he still held every chance when unseating back at the Welsh venue last time out. That form couldn’t have worked out much better with the second, third and fourth all winners since. He’s 5lb out of the handicap, and a whole host of other front-runners won’t make life easy, but if he can wing the first two and grab the lead, therein lies his chance. You’d want a big price, but you’ll get one - 33s and bigger is worth a look.
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Trends
*Non-handicap prior to 2025
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Pace Map
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Selection
Suggestion: Jordan's Cross
Matt's Tix Pix: Playing a few again, including the Honeyball pair.
A new day for the Mares' Hurdle, bumped from its Tuesday slot to a crowded Thursday G1 window as the undercard billing to the Stayers' / Ryanair headliners. But it's a race of interest, even absent Lossiemouth, who elected for the Champion Hurdle on the opening day.
The star billing will instead go to the Gordon Elliott-trained Wodhooh, an unassuming and highly progressive mare who at last year's Cheltenham Festival spared her trainer's blushes in the very last race after he'd endured a slew of near misses. Since transferring to Elliott from Sir Michael Stoute's flat yard in the summer of 2023, Wodhooh won nine of her ten races. The defeat? To Lossiemouth at Aintree last year. I think decent ground is important to Wodhooh - and she should get it, barring a torrential downpour. With Lossiemouth not her, she sets a very clear form standard.
The next most likely in the field is Jade de Grugy, my idea of a great bet in the Mares' Chase - and backed accordingly. Sigh. She's been chasing all season - and mixing it with top novice boys in the process - but she is the Closutton substitute for Lossiemouth. She won a Grade 1 Mares' race at Punchestown last spring so is clearly up to this level, and if she's still making a hurdle shape at her obstacles, rather than giving them the air that a steeplechase fence needs, she's the main danger. The soft side of good is probably optimal ground wise.
Feet Of A Dancer was impressive in a three mile Grade 2 at Doncaster in January, and before that was just two lengths behind Wodhooh in a G3 at Leopardstown. She definitely fits here after a good 4th in the Pertemps Final last season, though she may prefer slightly softer turf ideally.
Dan Skelton saddles the seemingly well-named Take No Chances, who has not taken any of her chances this season! To be fair, she's run very creditably in defeat to Strong Leader, Impose Toi and Potters Charm, all classy enough sorts. She might favour an extra half mile though had enough boot to beat Kargese at the minimum but tends to find at least one or two too good. She was third in this, and at Aintree, again behind Lossiemouth, last spring, beaten about ten lengths each time. Place prospects once more.
Jetara was fourth in this last year, a season in which she won that Doncaster G2. This term on soft ground she could only manage third in that race, beaten nine lengths; but she does seem to relish better ground so I can envisage her could again getting competitive for a place.
Mares' Hurdle Recent Winners
Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection
Looks like it will be truly run with both Dream On Baby and Jade de Grugy forward goers by habit. Wodhooh will appear later in the play...
Mares' Hurdle 2026 Pace Map
Mares' Hurdle Selection
The market has this spot on, I think, and it looks Wodhooh's to lose. If there is a fly in her ointment it's most likely going to be Jade de Grugy. If the rain comes, Feet Of A Dancer might round out the 'noddy' trifecta.
Suggestion: Back Wodhooh to beat Jade de Grugy in a straight forecast/exacta. Maybe add Feet Of A Dancer for the trifecta, but don't expect it to pay a lot!
A race that seems to deliver a surprise result more often than not the Stayers' Hurdle was won last year by the veteran Bob Olinger, who showed a turn of pace that the younger, more stamina-laden Teahupoo - defending champion - could not match. Both were/are in the same Robcour ownership. That was on good to soft while Teahupoo's win in 2024 had been achieved in more testing conditions, and it may again be that the state of the turf dictates the fate of the best stayer in the field.
It's not that Teahupoo doesn't act on quickish ground - he beat Bob Olinger seven lengths in a Leopardstown G1 at Christmas on it - but rather that the combination of a sometimes muddling tempo in the Stayers' and less testing sod fails to make it the stamina test in which he excels. He arrives here three from three on the season and is the worthy favourite.
Bob Olinger was 8/1 when causing that surprise (to me, at least) a year ago. In winning at age 10 he was the second 'old man' to take the prize in three years - after Sire du Berlais in 2023 - but the one before was Crimson Embers 40 years ago, and before that Zarane in 1927. Time will catch up with Bob O at some point, probably by now, but it's worth noting that he's four from four at Cheltenham, including in the Baring Bingham (Turners now) hurdle and the Golden Miller (Turners then!) chase, albeit beaten and benefiting from Galopin Des Champ's last fence fall that day.
For some reason Dan Skelton seems to have a sub-5/1 shot in every Grade 1 this year. There's a good chance I'm missing something but most of them look seriously under-priced for a trainer who is 4/45 in that context. True, three of those came in the last two years - Grey Dawning (Golden Miller) and Protektorat (Ryanair) on this day in 2024, and The New Lion in the Turners last year - but I'm not a believer yet...
He saddles Kabral du Mathan, a fast improving six-year-old who stepped out of handicap company to waltz away with the Relkeel here on New Years' Day. He's stepping up half a mile which, based on his most decorated half-siblings Lucky Place and July Flower, might not be what he needs. That said, I've already mentioned elsewhere on this page, the Stayers' is regularly less than an end to end gallop. Decent ground is probably important to his chance.
Elliott also brings Honesty Policy, like KdM a progressive six-year-old. He was a Grade 1 novice hurdle winner at Aintree last spring at 2m4f and has been second and third in G1's at three miles so far this campaign. In fact, he's had only one run since the summer - in the Long Walk at Ascot in December - and comes here well rested, as did four of the last five winners. He has about 7lb to find with his stablemate and favourite but he's upwardly mobile and his price suggests connections don't think there's much between them.
Ma Shantou, trained by Emma Lavelle, is a dyed in the wool three-miler. He's run over that range on all of his last six starts, including when winning the Cleeve Hurdle by seven lengths. That was his third win at Cheltenham, all this season, and he clearly relishes conditions. He does have a fair bit to find with the best of these, however.
It's probably an unfashionable opinion but I think Ballyburn should have run in the Champion Hurdle. He won the Turners Novices' Hurdle, a key pointer to the Champion, two seasons back, and he ran his two best chase races at two miles and 2m5f. I just don't think he's a stayer. But, again, and forgive me for labouring the point, in a three mile race where the emphasis is not put on stamina, he could have a chance. However, he's been beaten by Teahupoo in his last two starts, comprehensively on their most recent meeting.
Yet another interesting runner is Impose Toi. He progressed out of handicaps last spring to win the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle in December (good to soft). On softer turf at Cheltenham, he was beaten seven lengths by Ma Shantou in the Cleeve; he might just prefer a little less cut.
It's harder to make cases for the others, though the spectre of a falsely run race hangs over this field of non-leaders - see pace section below - so a shock is not out of the question.
Stayers' Hurdle Recent Winners
Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map
NOT pacy, with no horse in the field having led on either of its most recent two starts. Gordon and Nicky have two each in the race and so might be able to control the tempo, but their runners wouldn't naturally lend themselves to such a play. Could be tactical.
Stayers' Hurdle 2026 Pace Map
Stayers' Hurdle Selection
This is a pretty good race but not an easy one to call. Teahupoo doesn't look like getting either his soft ground or, probably more important, a decent tempo to run at. Neither of those perceived impediments may stop him and I kind of hope he wins because I'm a big fan. Still, he's not really a bet even if/when he starts to drift. I'm not buying the Kabral Du Mathan hype - yet - and both he and Honesty Policy are short enough, for all that they promise to be capable of more than shown to date. You've got to love Bob O and 11yo Sire du Berlais won this in 2023, but I don't really see it. Ballyburn would be potentially good for a mad roll up bet I made but it's very hard to fancy him on his last run - he does have other lines that put him in the picture, especially if this is falsely run.
After all that, the two I'm siding with, from the same key race, are Ma Shantou and Impose Toi each way. They have both been well campaigned this season and I don't believe there's as much between them as the official margin from the Cleeve. This track and decent ground are fine for both and they might be a sliver of value.
Suggestion: Back either Ma Shantou and/or Impose Toi each way.
Matt's Tix Pix:Teahupoo on the main tickets, with Ma Shantou and Impose Toi on back ups
Maybe I'm weird (don't answer that!) but I'm a huge fan of the Ryanair. It gets maligned for pulling runners from the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup, but they tend to be very good horses in search of precisely this intermediate trip. The alumni includes Fact To File, Envoi Allen, Allaho, Min, Frodon, Un De Sceaux, Vautour, and Cue Card since 2013: if that's not a strong defence of the race's existence I'm tee total.
This year's renewal has revolved another reigning champion hokey cokey, Fact To File's Gold Cup absence predicated on stamina doubts. Again, this is the right race for him. It's six furlongs shorter than the Gold Cup for crying out loud! There's a solid argument for him being the best chaser in training right now, his mid-170's rating still open to further improvement, whereas the likes of the magnificent Galopin Des Champs' mark is undeniably regressive now. Majborough may be the only one capable of better.
Still, it's fair to say he's had a bumpy run since winning last year's Ryanair. First he was dropped to two miles in what may have been an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' effort behind Marine Nationale. Returning in the autumn, he was neck and neck with Gaelic Warrior - eventually that distance behind that one - over this sort of trip at Punchestown, before not really dealing with the King George test at Kempton on Boxing Day. While that was harder to explain he put the record straight with a convincing five length verdict over Gaelic Warrior at DRF. That was three miles on soft leading many to call for his participation in the Gold Cup, but that's another three furlongs up the hill.
This is his race, and if he's in the same form as last time, or this time last year, he'll win barring incident.
Jonbon comes here rather than the Champion Chase on account of not being as quick as he was. Min and Un De Sceaux both did likewise - and to winning effect - back in the day, though both were a year younger than the admirable Henderson hoss. Indeed, we'll go all the way back to 2011 and Albertas Run's second Ryanair to find the last veteran to lift this pot. Jonbon could be my favourite horse in training at the moment (outside of the red, white and blue geegeez livery, natch) - what's not to love about a horse which has finished in the first two in all of his 27 lifetime starts, winning 20 of them? But that doesn't mean I think he can win, regardless of what my heart says.
The facts are that he was well beaten by L'Eau du Sud on seasonal bow, then bashed by Il Etait Temps when he should have been perfectly fit; since then he's beaten inferior rivals to what he faces here. I hope he pleasantly surprises me, he'll take the roof off if he does!
Another ten-year-old held in great esteem by yours true is Banbridge. This is his trip - stretching out to an easy three miles around Kempton - but he must have decent ground. Like Jonbon, his best race may now be behind him, and very recently in his case, just failing to win a classic of a King George at Christmas. As for Cheltenham, he failed to stay in the Gold Cup last year and it was much too soft for him in this the year before. Place prospects this time on decent ground but if the forecast afternoon rain arrives he might be a non-runner and re-route to Aintree.
We'd not seen Impaire Et Passe for most of a year before he showed up at Gowran Park less than a month ago to get it done in the G2 Red Mills Chase. Entitled to step forward notably for that - assuming this doesn't come too soon - he is a second season chaser with upside and brings proper Grade 1 novice form to the disco; nevertheless, he has a stone or so to find with FtF on form in the book.
Henry runs Heart Wood, a horse that has - for me at least - gone under the radar a little bit. He got closest, albeit not very close (9L), to Fact To File in last year's Ryanair, and has won a brace of Grade 3's from three starts this term. In between that pair he was a reasonable fourth to Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File in that ding dong Durkan. His best runs on RPR's have been on better ground and so I can see the case for him again hitting the frame; but he's a fairly unsexy proposition all told.
Ryanair Chase Recent Winners
Ryanair Chase Pace Map
Looking like a decent even to strong gallop, and no excuses all round.
Ryanair Chase 2026 Pace Map
Ryanair Chase Selection
This is all about Fact To File, who towers over his field - and all fields - on numbers. It would have to go wrong for him not to win and he's as close to a banker as you can get at Cheltenham (which, of course, is not all that close - this does not constitute financial advice!)
Suggestion: Back Fact To File, or just watch and hope he shows how good he is.
Matt's Tix Pix: Fact to File is pretty much a banker but I want a little bit of small percentage coverage elsewhere in case of dramas.
When I went through the pre-New Year qualifying races, I landed on ELECTRIC MASON as the one I had my eye on for the Final and I'm going to stick with that one as my main selection.
He ran second in the very first qualifier of the season at Cheltenham, before reversing the form with the winner next time out in a Grade 3 at Haydock. The form of that Haydock win now looks outstanding with the runner up finishing 3rd in another Grade 3 handicap, the 3rd, 4th and 6th all winning since and the 5th running 2nd in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle on New Years Day. The 33/1 10th won at Cheltenham next time out as did the 12th who then followed up in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle on Cheltenham Trials Day. Even the 50/1 11th home managed to win a class 2 handicap at Musselburgh on his next start.
He hasn't run since Haydock, in an effort to protect his handicap mark, but he has a decent record coming off a break of 90 days+ of 3-1-2-2 and 4 winners since 2011 have used the same tactic of having a break of at least 60 days before coming to Cheltenham.
With 13 of the last 14 winners being aged 8 or under, 11 of the last 14 winners finishing top 4 last time out and all of the last 14 winners carrying 10-09+ he ticks all those boxes and his current 139 rating is perfect (11 of the last 13 winners were rated 138+ with 8 winners this century rated 138-140).
He has the form, he has a cracking Trends profile, he has course form from earlier in the season and goes on the ground. All in all he looks to offer excellent each way value.
Pertemps Final Recent Winners
Pertemps Final Pace Map
Pertemps Final Selection
Suggestion: Electric Mason 1 point e/w
Matt's Tix Pix:More scattergunning in a race where I never have a clue
5.20 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)
Previewed by Dave Renham.
For a Cheltenham festival race, I would not class this as a strong one for past trends. However, here are the strongest considerations:- 9 of the last 18 winners have come from the top three in the betting
- 10 of the last 18 winners were priced between 2/1 and 11/2 LTO
- 13 of the last 18 winners failed to win earlier that season
- The top two in the weights (inc. joints) have won 6 races from only 44 qualifiers with a further 8 being placed
- Horses that either won LTO or were beaten by 3 lengths or less have a poor record with just 2 wins from 103 runners.
For my run style the stats, I am again focusing on the last 10 renewals. These races have seen a huge number of runners racing mid division or held up near or at the back. A total of 78% of all runners have had either of those two run styles. Eight of the ten winners (80%) have won from a mid-div or held up sit, so essentially for winners, there has been little in it run style wise. However, it should be noted that, although front runners have won just once, seven have been placed (PRB 0.67).
On to some of the contenders now.
Jeriko Du Reponet - Was an excellent second in the Pertemps last year here and followed that up with a smooth win at the Punchestown festival in May. Clearly a talented hurdler, he has not impressed in his three chase runs this year with his jumping, so for some it might seem strange that he has been backed into such a short price. If he brushes up his jumping, he may just have too much class for this field, but it’s a big if. He’s owned by JP McManus, who has a good recent record (three wins and four places in the last ten years). Derek O’Connor rides which suggests that the horse is well fancied.
Waterford Whispers - Another JP owned horse, this time trained in Ireland by Henry De Bromhead. Ran an eye-catching race last time at Leopardstown when third and that was his best effort over fences to date.
Weveallbeencaught - Fourth in this race last year when trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. Now with Eric McNamara and he started the year with two decent runs at Listowel and Limerick. Possibly was disadvantaged last time out when seemingly racing on the wrong part of the track. Looks an each way player to me.
Sandor Clegane - He has previously run three times at the Festival, coming third in the Albert Bartlett, fourth in the Brown Advisory, a race in which he was upsides Fact to File at the last, and a decent 10th in the Coral Cup last year when only five lengths off a place. Trainer Paul Nolan’s place stats at the Festival, since 2018, are the best of any trainer (40% thanks to 10 win/placed runners from 25). Backing all 25 runners to the Betfair Place would have yielded huge returns of around 85p in the £. Recent form has offered little real encouragement, but off a mark of 138, he is thrown in if getting close to that run in the Brown Advisory. He is a big price due to his recent form, but Cheltenham does seem to bring out the best in him.
Ask Brewster - This is his time of year, having raced three times in the Spring, winning every time including at Cheltenham last April. The better the ground the better his chance as all four chase wins have been on good or quicker.
Kim Muir Recent Winners
Kim Muir Pace Map
Kim Muir Selection
To conclude, Jeriko Du Reponet could just have too much class, but at around 4-1 the price looks far too tight, despite the positive past record of horses near the head of the betting. Waterford Whispers is also 4-1, but in a 26 runner race I can’t convince myself this is value either. I prefer to have three against the field in such a big field.
Suggestion: Split your stakes on Weveallbeencaught, Ask Brewster, Sandor Clegane.
*
And that's us three-quarters of the way home. Hopefully you've had a couple of good draws already; if not, fear not for Gold Cup day will follow. But let's enjoy Thursday's sport first!
Good luck
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/275616468-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2026-03-11 17:13:422026-03-11 17:13:42Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips
Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
We're onto Wednesday, the second quarter and the second of two days on the Old course at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. Seven more brainteasers, seven more invitations to the most coveted roll of honour in the sport. Let's proceed with haste to...
1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
We kick off a day of big fields with the largest assembly for the Turners since 2002 when Galileo (not that one) prevailed ahead of 26 rivals. 'Only' 22 this time, and it bears remembering that Galileo was a 12/1 fifth choice in the betting. When the field has been 15 runners or more, winners returned 8/1, 14/1, 6/4, 2/1, 7/1, 7/1, 20/1, 17/2, 17/2, 12/1, 6/1, and 12/1 since 2000. All bar the 20/1 winner Massinis Maguire came from the top five in the betting. So, we don't want to get too cute but there might be some value for an each way play...
The favourite as I write is the Paul Nicholls-trained No Drama This End, impressive winner of his three novice hurdles including over course and distance. His unbeaten timber-topping trio are comprised of two Grade 2's and a Grade 1, the Challow Hurdle at Newbury in late December. That was considered a Turners buster until The New Lion won both contests last season and laid that particular stat quirk to rest... for the time being at least.
Still, it bears saying that the respective tests of a small field contest at Newbury and a cavalry charge around Cheltenham are quite different. Indeed, NDTE has yet to win in a bigger field than the eleven lesser mortals he brushed aside on his bumper debut; he was then no better than midfield when a 12/1 chance in last season's Champion Bumper. I really like this horse and have backed him ante post at a similar quote to his current odds, but I didn't expect there to be so many challengers.
It might be that this is a race characterised by quality over quantity, of course, and if that is the case, it will be fun to watch a delighted Nicholls lead his lad back in. For that reason alone, I hope he wins.
The DRF Grade 1 Novice Hurdle won by Talk The Talk provides the liveliest threats - according to the market at least. We'll have a handle on this form line after Tuesday's Supreme, when the winner runs, but this does look the right race for both Ballyfad and King Rasko Grey. Ballyfad was just out pointed bt TTT in a slowly run race where he had the run of things on the front end; it might be that this stronger stamina test will play to his strengths: he'd previously made all to batter Leader d'Allier (also Supreme bound) ten lengths in a maiden hurdle. But he doesn't need to lead; both bumper wins were from a less prominent early position. He brings solid G1 form from a key race to the table.
So too, just behind him that day, does King Rasko Grey. Placed in consecutive renewals of the Goffs Land Rover sales race - fourth and then second - he won his maiden without fuss at Christmas (2nd, 4th and 5th all won next time, 3rd unraced since) before taking bronze at DRF. The choice of jockey Paul Townend, he's a prominent racer with plenty of upside and, like Ballyfad, probably wasn't suited by the steady tempo last time. There's little between the pair on that run.
Sober has been a talking horse on the preview circuit. Trained, like KRG, by Willie Mullins Sober's form is hard to weight up: he has won four in a row, two novice hurdles and two conditions races on the flat. One of the novices was a three-runner Grade 2 which revealed little and from which none of the trio has tested the level of the form. The other novice win was in May in a five runner race at Killarney. No, me neither. Perhaps he is best judged then on the basis of the intervening win on the level at Ascot - yes, Royal Ascot - in the Queen Alexandra Stakes over 2m6f. Although there were only nine runners there, as the image below shows (from our new sectionals display - coming soon!) he produced an electric gear change in the final stages to win by an easy five lengths. They didn't go quick there but nor did they go slow - this guy does have a high cruising speed, and quick ground is probably what he needs.
Jack Kennedy has opted for Ballyfad but it must have been a tough choice to jump off Skylight Hustle. Second to Thedeviluno (subsequent G2 scorer and one of the favourites for Friday's Albert Bartlett) on hurdling debut, he then won a 24 runner maiden hurdle by... counts them... 21 lengths! Confirming the viusal impression there, he rolled on to the Future Champions Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) at Leopardstown at Christmas and put five lengths between himself and the runner up. His best form - that run - was on a soundish surface and his versatile run style profile is a positive. He's another player though that G1 is not normally the strongest pointer to the Turner's.
A third string to Willie's bow is Sortudo, who I thought might run in Friday's longer novice race (and who I backed accordingly, sigh). He was beaten by the fairytale horse I'll Sort That, more momentarily, in a Grade 1 at Naas formerly known as the Lawlor's of Naas. That's been a good pointer to this, with the likes of Envoi Allen and Bob Olinger doubling up.
The winner I'll Sort That looks over-priced in his bid to emulate those two top notchers, perhaps mainly because he's ridden by his owner and trainer, Declan Queally. In fairness, Queally would probably readily concede that he's no Ruby Walsh - who is? - but that hasn't stopped him racking up a sequence of four hurdle wins culminating in that top tier pot. I'll Sort That often leads in his races but I don't think he absolutely has to - was prominent when winning a Galway novice - and he does look a smidge of value. It will be one of the stories of the week if Queally - who is an excellent trainer, by the way - comes home in front.
One other I need to mention, and only because I had a good bet on him in the wrong race, is Riskaway. He was fourth in the 2m6f Nathaniel Lacy at DRF and, to be fair, he did run like a non-stayer there. He might not be quick enough or good enough for this, but I'm pretty sure this is his ground and I do expect him to run a lot better than a 66/1 shot.
Turners Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Turners Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
A few different pace angles, so it could be hard fought early or just one or two take them along. An even to strong tempo looks most likely though far from certain.
Turners 2026 Pace Map
Turners Novices' Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: It's a wide open race as 5/1 the field implies. And I don't really have a strong view in a contest where most of them are capable of better. At the prices, I think I'll Sort That might be the value. Yes, his jockey is the least experienced in the race; but his form is pretty solid, including that key race G1 score last time (where he beat many of the same riders, and where there were 15 lengths back to the third). He shouldn't be nearly 20/1, should he?
There are guaranteed daily placepot pools, and you can play with stakes as low as a penny. All winning tickets placed via Tix receive a 5% bonus on returns.
Win £100 each day of Cheltenham in our best stake-to-return Tix competition
Just bet £5 or more through the Tix app. The highest ROI ticket each day will receive £100 in tote credit added to their account.
[£200 prize on Gold Cup Day!]
*
2.00 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 3m)
Previewed by Rory Delargy.
The Brown Advisory market had a significant shake-up when Final Demand was turned over by Kaid d’Authie in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the DRF. The former was a warm favourite for this at that point, but now has his air of invincibility pricked.
I thought the real eye-catcher in that contest was WESTERN FOLD, who looked in need of the run after a three-month break and shaped really well on ground softer than ideal, with Jack Kennedy only getting serious enough with him to ward off the attention of the stewards. He has shown his best form on good or yielding ground and the return to spring ground will be a big help. He’s also got form against established chasers, which has earned him a rock-solid official rating of 157.
To put that in perspective, here are the Irish handicapper’s ratings for the main Irish runners:
Kaid d’Authie 158
Western Fold 157
Romeo Coolio 157
Final Demand 156
Kitzbuhel 153
Oscars Brother 151
Koktail Divin 149
The Big Westerner 144 (+7 mares’ allowance)
By contrast, the leading UK runners have the following ratings:
Salver 149
Wendigo 147
Both Salver and Wendigo have been well tipped up at previews, but face a stiff task even to place according to those figures, which I don’t have much truck with. I will point out that stamina counts for something here and that neither Romeo Coolio nor Kaid d’Authie are proven at even a bare three miles, and neither is Final Demand, for that matter. Romeo Coolio also wears a hood to help preserve his stamina and it’s clear that connections are ruing the loss of the Turners (Golden Miller) Chase here as his optimum trip is probably 2.5m.
Western Fold won the Mayo National over an extended 2m7f and won over that trip over hurdles. His only run over a full 3m over fences ended in defeat, but finishing third behind Envoi Allen and Affordale Fury at Down Royal was a smart effort, and he was just a length and a half behind the latter there, having beaten the same rival at Gowran Park on his previous start.
Affordale Fury then went on to beat I Am Maximus and Galopin des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown, underlining the strength of the form. He ran off a mark of 148 when a clear-cut winner of the Galway Plate and his current rating cannot be questioned.
Brown Advisory Chase Recent Winners
Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map
Brown Advisory Chase Selection
The main argument against Western Fold is that he’s more exposed than his rivals, but his experience will - in my view - stand him in good stead in a big field. Whereas some of his rivals have a bit to prove in such a competitive environment, for all a couple are open to further progress. Others will point out that the fact his trainer has switched Romeo Coolio from the Arkle, with Jack Kennedy riding, showing that he’s much better fancied than Western Fold. Sure, Romeo, as befits the name, is the sexier of the two, but sexiness doesn’t win races. The subsequent drift on the battle-hardened Western Fold makes him a really attractive each-way bet in a race that will suit him. Danny Gilligan will do for me!
I was dealt a bit of an early blow with the BetMGM Cup on Monday morning when my ante-post fancy, Double Powerful, failed to make the cut. Oh, if only Conor O’Farrell had finished fourth in that Musselburgh Pertemps Qualifier and not fifth. Might have saved a lot of heartache this week. Anyway, thank the punting gods for NRMB, nothing lost as yet.
I think we're best starting at the top here, with Gordon Elliott and The Yellow Clay, who is going to be wearing some cheekpieces for the first time. The compressed nature of Cheltenham handicaps these days means we’ve seen genuine Grade 1 horses, when dropped into handicaps, having to give far less weight away to those at the foot of the handicap, as is the case here; 17lb covers the lot of ‘em.
Wind the clock back twelve months and we’ll find The Yellow Clay being beaten three-quarters of a length by The New Lion in the Turners, and you don’t need telling that is quality form. It might look even better come about 4.10 on Tuesday. This season, his two starts have all been about keeping him ticking over, and having missed the DRF (not a bad thing when looking for the winner of this in my book) he comes here a fresh horse.
Spare a thought for Ballyadam. Here’s a horse with a Festival record that most racehorses would give their right leg for (one of them, anyway) - 25523, and that includes a third in this race last year. Now aged 11, which most of the stats for this race will tell you is too old, and a pound higher than last year, too, the handicapper has hardly done him any favours and yet only a fool wouldn’t look twice with a record such as that. He warmed up for this with a spin on the Flat at Dundalk last month, and a nice spin it was too, finishing a close third. Both he and The Yellow Clay will be claimer-ridden to reduce the burden, and my heart is telling me an each-way bet on Ballyadam, with the extra places of course, is going to have to take place. Stats, on this occasion, can take a back seat. There won’t be a dry eye in the house if he wins.
There’s another grizzled Festival veteran in the shape of Colonel Mustard to consider too. He was fifth in this last year and he does have a victory over The Yellow Clay this season to crow about. That came in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle back in November and two starts since then, whilst not seeing him at his best, have probably been under unfavourable conditions, with either trip or ground against him. He’ll probably need more than the rope and the candlestick to come out on top but the 33s is luring me in as far as the places go.
Iberico Lord ticks a lot of boxes for this - JP McManus, NIcky Henderson, French bred - but at 10-1 he’s hardly a dark one. He does have a Cheltenham win to his name but that aside, his efforts here are mixed, to say the least. I can swerve him at the price.
There’s very little at the foot of the handicap making any appeal, but Forty Coats might be worth a second look. His form as a novice was pretty decent, and that all culminated in a fifteen-length fourth to The New Lion in the Turners here last March. Two efforts this season have left a bit to be desired, in truth, and an odds-on defeat at Thurles last time was hardly what you’d want to see, so you are relying on the first-time cheekpieces to have a galvanizing effect, along with some De Bromhead magic and a return to Cheltenham. A mark of 138 is fair IF he can.
3.20 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)
Previewed by Gavin Priestley.
The race switched from a handicap to a non handicap in 2016 but now reverts back to a handicap. The Irish have dominated this race since its inception and I don't see that dominance ending this year as they head to Cheltenham with a formidable challenge.
The winner of the recent Cheltenham Cross Country Race was the Gordon Elliot trained Favouri De Champdou, who would have a very decent chance on the evidence of that recent win. As would The Goffer, also trained by Gordon Elliot, who was runner up to Vanillier last time out.
Last year's winner Stumptown is trained by Gavin Cromwell and warmed up for this with a win in the Czech Pardubice, a race that makes this look tame in comparison. He's currently joint favourite, but he's carrying top weight here and is 5lb higher than last year. He loves this type of race, and despite his weight, is another that is highly respected.
However, I just prefer the chances of his 11yo stablemate, VANILLIER, who finished an excellent 3rd in this race last year. That’s despite nearly taking the wrong course at the 3rd fence, the canal turn, before staying on very strongly from the last.
He's 6lb lower in the ratings than last year, and won last time out in the same Punchestown Bank Chase he had won last season. That's usually a good pointer to this race and he looks to have a lot going for him again this time around. He looks a great value each way bet with 4 places on offer.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Recent Winners
*Handicap up to 2015, conditions race 2016-2024, reverted to a handicap in 2025. Abandoned in 2024.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection
Suggestion: Vanillier 1 point e/w
Matt's Tix Pix: Favori mainly with a few smaller plays as well
A race shorn of a large chunk of its appeal with the news last week that reigning champ Marine Nationale will miss the gig. He'd been my idea of the value against Majborough, the better ground expected to play much more to his strengths. Anyway, that's all by the by...
Majborough then is a strong favourite in MN's absence, and deservedly so after his romp in the Dublin Chase where he had most of twenty lengths back to Marine Nationale et al. His Cheltenham form is good, having won the Triumph Hurdle in 2024 before being the moral winner of the Arkle last season. I say moral winner, because he was only third - beaten a length - having left a deep impression in the second last through which he walked, causing him to massively decelerate.
But therein might lie Majborough's Achilles heel: he can be a clumsy leaper. That was by no means his first mistake in the Arkle, though to give him his dues he's been much better this season, and was foot perfect last time out at DRF. He brings unarguably the strongest form and is easily the most likely winner. A look at the trends below, however, provides sobering reading for bridge jumpers: six winning jollies since 2009 (17 years) doesn't sound so bad until you consider that Jonbon was 2nd at 5/6 last year, El Fabiolo pulled up at 2/9 the year before, Shishkin was pulled up at 5/6, Chacun Pour Soi was 3rd at 8/13, Defi Du Seuil was 4th at 2/5, Douvan was 7th at 2/9, Un De Sceaux was 2nd at 4/6, Sizing Europe was 2nd at 4/5, and Master Minded was 4th at 4/5. Jeez!
As if that wasn't bad enough, prior to 2009, Well Chief fell at evens, Moscow Flyer unseated at 5/6, and Flagship Uberalles was only 3rd at 11/10.
Still want to bet Majborough at odds on?! Good luck, you'll be on the best horse but that often hasn't been enough to get you paid...
I'm currently incubating a theory that Maj's jumping is better on softer ground because he's moving at a slower tempo. That could be rank quackery, of course, but if it's right he's going to come under much more pressure with a number of other forward racers in the field. I just cannot bet him at odds on for all that he towers over his field form wise, like many beaten QMCC favs before him did.
So where to, then? Second favourites (and joint-/co-second choices) have won ten times since 1997 and, given the price of a number of the beaten jollies, they've often been sent off at each way prices. Marine Nationale last year was 5/1, Put The Kettle On was 17/2, Politologue was 6/1, and Sprinter Sacre was somehow 5/1 when Un De Sceaux was 4/6 (I'm sure it made a lot of sense at the time). As well as those winners, Sizing Europe was a 6/1 2nd, Kalahari King was 9/2 3rd, and two of the 12/1 co-second favourites of three behind 4/11 Master Minded filled out the places in 2009.
My problem is that I cannot possibly back L'Eau du Sud at about 4/1. It just looks completely wrong. He had seemingly no excuses when not only behind Majborough, but also Only By Night, in the Arkle last year, and he was beaten 18 lengths by Il Etait Temps in the Tingle Creek in December. What am I missing?
Yes, I know he won the Schlurrrr Chase by 15 lengths from Jonbon but you're literally mad if you take that as literal form, and even if you did you'd need to factor in Jonbon's probable regression this season. There's just no way for me that L'Eau du Sud is a 165+ horse, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Lay.
Il Etait Temps is a different proposition entirely. Of course it's suboptimal arriving at Cheltenham off the back of a tired fall when beaten but he's a bona fide Grade 1 horse, whereas the L'EdS is not - not yet at least. Martha's Son overcame a fall prior to winning the QMCC, albeit that was in 1997, and both Big Zeb and Moscow Flyer took risks at their fences. More materially, that was an uncharacteristic error from a normally safe jumper.
Still, it remains the case that the top of the market doesn't particularly stand close inspection (bar Majborough - it's not his fault that other shorties got beaten). It is also true that nothing bigger than 11/1 has won the Champion Chase since Newmill caused the upset in 2006; so we don't want to be getting too cute, in all probability.
Who next? Quilixios was booked for second at a big price in this last year (yes, I backed him) when falling at the final fence, but he's not been seen since. He goes well fresh, and not even Willie can match Henry de Bromhead's four Queen Mother's, but it's a stretch to imagine he'd be fit enough to take the spoils. It is, isn't?!
I thought Found A Fifty would have a bit of a place chance, too, but that was before Gordon ran him at Navan 11 days ago: he was last of four on heavy ground. Did he need the run? :-/
Irish Panther is one at which to take a second glance. Not without his supporters for the Arkle, connections have gone for it by running in the main event and, to be fair, I can sort of see why. Bar Majborough it looks a race full of if's and but's so sure, why not? He has more scope to improve than most, and he will need to improve to the tune of ten pounds to hit the board.
Third last year was the former champ, Captain Guinness, but he was beaten 20 lengths and would have been fourth but for Quilixios's exit at the last. I know his best form is at Cheltenham but aged eleven now, his best form is also surely behind him.
Even in a shallow looking renewal, I can't really make a case while keeping a straight face for any of Libberty Hunter, Saint Segal or Brookie.
Champion Chase Recent Winners
Champion Chase Pace Map
This looks pacy, Quilixios unlikely to get a solo with Irish Panther in the field. Saint Segal and Majborough also tend to go forward though neither needs to. There will be at least place pieces to be picked up by someone...
Queen Mother Champion Chase 2026 Pace Map
Champion Chase Selection
Majborough has outstanding claims if jumping around cleanly. But the record of short-priced favourites in the QMCC makes such a play a bit of a knee trembler. Il Etait Temps is far from a safe alternative, that last run a shocker even before the tumble; but the balance of his form is a) winning, b) in Grade 1 company, and c) on this sort of ground. On ratings, he is 2lb behind Maj and 8lb+ in front of everything else. He rates an e/w play.
Suggestion: Back Il Etait Temps each way at 5/1. And if/when the bookies push Majborough out to evens, bet him to win!
Matt's Tix Pix: Majborough on A, Il Etait Temps on B.
4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)
Previewed by Dave Renham.
This would not be the strongest race at the meeting for past trends in my opinion, but here are what I perceive to be the key ones (last 18 years):
- Irish trainers are 7 from 87 (8%), whilst British trainers are 11 from 274 (4%).
- Winners have been a real mix of prices so difficult to rule out a horse on price.
- Horses that had previously raced twice or more at Cheltenham have won 14 of the last 18 renewals (77.8%). This group has accounted for just 55% of the total runners.
- Horses that have raced once or fewer at Cheltenham previously have combined to win just 4 races from 149 qualifiers for huge BSP losses of £92.62 (ROI -62.2%).
- Horses that have previously won at Cheltenham have won 8 renewals from 103 runners (7.8%) with those without a course win with just 10 victories from 258 runners (3.9%).
- Horses that finished 8th or worse LTO, but completed the course, have won 5 times from just 31 qualifiers.
- Not much in the age stats as far as wins go, but in the placed market those aged 5 to 8 have outperformed those aged 9 and older (22.7% v 15.3%).
A look at run style stats now. As with yesterday I am looking at the past ten renewals:
It seems that horses held up early have been at a significant disadvantage.
Let me now share my shortlist of runners:
Vanderpoel - Ben Pauling is one of my favourite jumps trainers and he had the winner of this race in 2022. This 7yo has won the last twice and has gone up a total of 15lbs as a result. I personally think he is 2lbs/3lbs below his true mark, so for me he is a real contender. He should track the pace, which is my preferred run style for this race. Ben Pauling thinks the horse is ‘tailor made’ for this race. My one slight negative is that he seems to have run far better on right-handed tracks than left in his career to date, albeit from a limited sample.
Inthepocket - He was a top-notch hurdler winning the Grade 1 Top Novice’s Hurdle at Aintree back in 2023. His chase career has been a bit hit and miss, but his last run showed glimmers of promise when fifth in the Barberstown Castle Handicap at Leopardstown. He’s a decent jumper which should help in this type of contest. Trainer Henry De Bromhead knows how to win at this meeting, and he has been fairly strong in the market. He‘s not won at Cheltenham but was a decent fourth in the Supreme back in 2023. Also, his likely run style should suit this contest.
Be Aware - The Skeltons won this in 2024 and Be Aware seems to have been their long-term target for this race. The 7yo won first time up this year and has since finished runner up three times on the spin. One of those 2nds was in the Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown, so he definitely has a touch of class about him. Another positive is that he has finished second twice at Cheltenham from three starts. One to seriously consider.
Ryan’s Rocket - Two starts back he won really well at Newbur,y when he travelled really strongly in a race where a very strong pace was set by Javert Allen. A little concerning that he has unseated twice either side of that run, but if he stands up, he will be there or thereabouts.
Personal Ambition - The second string from the Ben Pauling stable but not without a squeak. I managed to get 130.0 on Betfair for a couple of quid on Sunday which I am happy enough with.
Grand Annual Recent Winners
Grand Annual Pace Map
Grand Annual Selection
This a really open race and I could make a fair case for some others including Ballysax Hank, Release the Beast and last year’s winner Jazzy Matty.
I would not put anyone off backing either Be Aware or Ryan’s Rocket, and I will be sticking both in my Placepot. However, I will be splitting stakes on one Irish and one British runner namely, Inthepocket and Vanderpoel.
Suggestions: Split stakes on Inthepocket and Vanderpoel.
We'll all know more by about 5.30, so what follows is a small bit of attempting to nail jelly to a wall. What we can say is that Willie wins with wegulawity, and not always with the fancied one. Indeed, he's laid claim to six of the last eight Champion Bumpers, and only once with the market leader. Since 2012, Mullins has saddled winners at 25/1 twice, 16/1 and 11/1, as well as less sexy 9/2, 4/1, 85/40, and 15/8.
He is again well represented, of course, the market settling on Love Sign d'Aunou, a son of Goliath du Berlais and an easy peasy all the way winner of a 2m3f Naas bumper on heavy ground. I'm not sure that's the speed test he'll get here, although stamina is typically an abundant requirement, too. What is noteworthy is that Mullins used the same race as the springboard for Jasmin de Vaux's 2024 Champion Bumper win as well as the good runs of Seabank Bistro (4th) and Western Diego (7th). In the land of the guessers I can definitely see the case made for LSd'A.
The Navan bumper won by The Irish Avatar was also won by fancied Cheltenham Bumper runners It's For Me, Three Stripe Life and Eskylane, all of which ran well without making the frame.
One of the features of Willie's bigger priced winners is that they'd tended by winners of their sole start under Rules. Going back to Alexander Banquet (9/1) in 1998, Joe Cullen was 14/1, Cousin Vinny 12/1, and 25/1 Briar Hill. All brought a single run, and win, to the Cheltenham party. This year, Love Sign, the Avatar and Quiryn are all once raced, as is Our Trigger.
The master of Closutton may be focusing less on bumpers than historically. Here's a chart of his percentage of rivals beaten, by Irish season:
It was notable that Mullins had just one runner in the two DRF bumpers, a mare sent off 10/3 and which finished almost last. Did he think they'd have too hard a race less than six weeks out?
In contrast and in his absence, Gordon swept the podium in the open G2, Broadway Ted just getting the better of With Nolimit, Charismatic Kid back in third. But Elliott's main hope appears to be Keep Him Company, two from two and unsighted since the tail end of December. He won a Leopardstown bumper that day, another in which Willie was notably unrepresented. What's going on with Willie's bumper runners this season? Maybe a change of approach, or something and nothing? Or something and something? I don't know...
An interesting one, and not normally my cup of tea at all, is Mets Ta Ceinture. As a four-year-old filly she gets a stack of weight - 17lb to be exact - from the older boys and, while there are well established reasons for those age and gender concessions, she was impressive when beating all bar the hat-trick seeking Mondialito d'Huez in a Grade 2 NHF at Saint-Cloud. She'd previously won a Le Mans bumper (no, me neither) and, after that taking G2 run she scored in a 1m4f G3 bumper before changing hands at the Arqana Autumn sale for, wait for it, €710,000. Those 'Graded' races were for AQPS horses only and that does cool the warm feeling a little, and the fact that the second has been beaten in her last six starts (and the third ran out of the frame since) further diminishes it. Seven hundred grand is a lot of money, even in euros...
It's been a while since a British-trained horse won this - ten years in fact, when Ballyandy gave the Twiston-Davies family a red letter day. Moon Racer had won for David Pipe the previous year, Messrs Hobbs and Tizzard bagged one each in 2010/11. Maybe this is 'our' year? If it is, Bass Hunter, twice a winner and unbeaten, will be high on the list of possibles. Favoured on both starts, he's clearly well regarded by Chris Gordon and has yet to disappoint, winning a Newbury bumper on debut by eight easy lengths and then an Ascot Listed event by a length, somewhat geared down. The second and fourth from the Ascot race have been whacked since which tempers enthusiasm.
One more I need to mention is Moonverrin, winner of the same DRF G2 mares' bumper as Bambino Fever and Relegate. Second on her debut, she was a ready winner at Cork on her next start but was sent off 20/1 in this field of nine. She ran a remarkable race, switched off at the back before cantering to the lead; as soon as she hit the front she rolled sideways in the final furlong allowing another mare to seemingly win the race - only for the jockey on that one to stop riding and get chinned by the re-rallying Moonverrin!
It could readily be argued that it was poetic justice and it would be hard to deny that the best horse didn't win the race. But the Willie filly (mare actually) ran like stink and the Gordon entry pulled up. There's a good chance the form is not worth much, but she's a big price: what odds would she be if trained by one of the usual suspects rather than Martin Hassett?
Noel Meade has booked crack flat jockey Colin Keane to ride The Mourne Rambler. He won his bumper well on St Stephen's Day and had run in a point before that, so has a little more experience; but I can't see a flat jockey on the roll of honour and a fair few have tried. I heard someone say the other day, "There's a reason flat jockeys tend to only ride once in the Champion Bumper", and that's a fair point. Something must put them off - maybe it's harder than they think!
A first runner in the bumper for Martin Brassil is It's Only A Game and he's been shrewd enough with those he's saddled at the Festival. City Island won in 2019 and Brassil has since enjoyed/endured three runner up spots; he's only saddled 14 runners. IOAG was fourth behind Broadway Ted et al at DRF, held up before flattening out in the final furlong. He was only a bit more than three lengths from winning there, and this gorgeously bred (by Goliath du Berlais out of a Martaline mare) and expensive (€160,000 3yo store) gelding may appreciate better ground. So, too, might many in the field!
Champion Bumper Recent Winners
Champion Bumper Pace Map
Pinch of salt pace map...
Champion Bumper 2026 Pace Map
Champion Bumper selection
I'm not going to pretend I have any idea what wins this. You might have half a chance if splitting a quid between the two DRF winners, Broadway Ted and Moonverrin. Both are attractive prices, both have strong form in race where lots are priced on potential, and one of them has Cheltenham virgin Sean Bowen steering.
Suggestion: Split a small stake between Broadway Ted and Moonverrin, each way with extra places if you can get them. But, obviously, this is not a race to go mad in.
*
And that's a wrap on Day 2. My thanks again to the five judges who have kindly shared their thoughts. Remember, the value game is not about a winner a race but a profit at the end of the year - let's hope also at the end of this week!
Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Jonbon_Kingmaker_Warwick2023.png319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2026-03-10 17:45:002026-03-10 17:45:00Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
So, here we are again. The 2026 Cheltenham Festival draws ever closer and, after a million preview nights and just as many horses tipped, we are now on the very cusp of getting answers to those thorny questions. Remember, first race is a 1.20pm kick off each day, moved last year from the traditional ten-minutes-later slot...
I'm delighted to again welcome some guest writers to help me with the thought processes - and also a guest editor so that, for the first time in 15 years or so, I can attend the Festival as a racegoer primarily. My star-studded line up consists of:
Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Rory is a veritable encyclopedia of the sport and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.
David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our very own 'Roving Reporter'. In his more recent Trackside guise, he attends most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock looking for those that might be better, or worse, than the market suggests.
Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, ever in search of a tasty data morsel or three. You'll know him well already, and it's great to have him on Festival duty.
Gavin Priestley is a former bookmaker and head of FestivalTrends.co.uk, a site dedicated to, erm, using trends to find winners at Festivals...!
They are all extremely welcome back to geegeez.
The eagle-eyed will have spotted that they are collectively four, and that there are seven races daily. I'm afraid that leaves you with my thoughts for the remaining three races daily. Every silver lining has a cloud!
Also, a quick reminder about our Tix competition where you canwin £100 each day.
The person who gets the highest odds winning ticket wins.
Minimum total daily stake £5 to qualify.
That means it's a level playing field for smaller and larger stakes players so everyone has the same chance of winning.Tix is here.
1.20 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
The roar of the crowd. The excitement palpable. Jumpers for goalposts, hmm? Yes it's a little trite but that collective exhortation as the tapes rise really is a thing, and a wonderful one at that. We're off for the first of 28 top class equine ding-dongs. As Lesley Phillips might have said, ding dong indeed!
To business, and the Supreme score since 2013 is Willie Mullins 6, Nicky Henderson 3, Rest of Ireland 3, Rest of UK 1. And here we have a Nicky and Willie show to kick off a day where that's a pretty strong theme. Fittingly enough, they top the market, Henderson's Old Park Star pursued closely by Mullins' Mighty Park.
Old Park Star transferred from the Ditcheat base of Paul Nicholls to Lambourn last summer, since when he's unbeaten in three widening verdicts, the most recent brace of which were a dozen length almost course and distance score and an 18 length margin in the Grade 2 Rossington Main. That form is very clearly the pick of the domestic crop, and he sets a high bar for his Irish rivals to clear. Naturally enough, he may be capable of better yet. One point worth noting is his tendency to lead in his races; not since Champagne Fever and Vautour went back to back trap to line in 2014/15 has that run style succeeded. He did come from further back on his hurdling debut so is presumably not wedded to the front.
Mighty Park will try to give a perfect start to Willie, Irish punters, and JP McManus. As runner up in a maiden point and facile (38 lengths!) scorer in a maiden hurdle, his level of ability is pretty hard to peg. Good, obviously, but how good? Who honestly knows? He got a bumper RPR for that performance but a workaday Topspeed figure, and that is a snappy little vignette of what we're grappling with here. The visual romanticists are foaming at the mouth, the cold data hearts unmoved. Either could be right and, in the end, the price makes the play... or, in this case and for this scribe, doesn't. I doubt a horse has won a Supreme off a single hurdle start in living memory, though I don't know for sure. All that said, it's fair to assume that Willie's 'A' pick for the Supreme has a rare level of talent; whether he's streetwise enough to bring all of it in a cauldron like this is extremely moot.
Much more battle hardened is Talk The Talk, representing Joseph O'Brien and the Double Green of Munir/Souede (it's never Souede/Munir, is it? I wonder how Isaac feels about that...). After a prat fall at the last when announcing himself on the big stage in a Grade 1 at Christmas, he confirmed the impression of that day when mishap-free at the same venue and in the same grade at DRF. To win from where he did in a very steadily run affair was a very taking effort and this tactically versatile five-year-old looks to have a terrific gear change allied to a high cruising speed. That's usually the combination to unlock the Supreme, and he looks a serious player.
Another to take a dive and one I'm yet to warm to is El Cairos. It was a soft enough fall on St Stephen's Day at Leopardstown, but I'm less inclined to forgive his near reprisal at the last at Thurles five weeks later. Post race, jockey Jack Kennedy was full of remorse and deflected blame from his mount to himself; but good hurdlers deal with such situations better than El C did. His bumper form - fifth in the Champion Bumper at last year's Festival and second in a Punchestown Festival equivalent - shows him to be high class, though there's nothing to jump in bumpers. Not really for me.
There was no obvious reason to my eye why Mydaddypaddy should have been a shorter price than Idaho Sun, the latter a comfy enough victor over the former in the G1 Formby. Alas Harry Fry's hope misses the Festival with a niggle. I still don't like Skelton's Mydaddypaddy who is in deeper here than at Liverpool that day and couldn't get that job done. He has a stone or so to find on RPR's with Old Park Star.
If there's to be a British winner of this which isn't Old Park Star, maybe it will be Sober Glory. Barring a very poor effort at Sandown, he's won his other five races including three over hurdles. His most recent success, sauntering away from the decent Kadastral by 27 lengths puts him in the picture. The niggle with this chap is that the one time he was beaten over hurdles - and well beaten - was when he didn't lead. He did score twice in bumpers from midfield, but it's a bit of a question nonetheless... though I didn't have that in mind when I backed him, twice, ante post!
The talking horse on the preview circuit has been Leader d'Allier, and the chat has got louder since Paul Townend elected to ride him. To be fair, Townend wouldn't have been eligible to ride JP's Mighty Park, and it must have been a straightforward pick over a 66/1 shot in Too Bossy For Us. Still, Leader d'Allier has done nothing more than win a maiden hurdle, having been second in one the time before. He did win an AQPS Grade 3 bumper in France last summer but who knows what level that is?
Going all the way back to 2009 the winner has been 12/1 or shorter on all bar one occasion, so it's very likely one of the above. The likes of Baron Noir (who actually beat El Cairos in a bumper at the Punchestown Festival last spring), Eachtotheirown (last seen winning a handicap - not the prep ahead of Supreme glory) and the aforementioned Too Bossy For Us would be big shock winners. The first named could finish in the top five, though.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Pace Projection
This is nearly always run at a fast clip from the outset, and it might be that two horses vying for favouritism - Mighty Park and Old Park Star - also vie for the early lead. Sober Glory has also been front rank recently.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection
The best of British, for me, are Old Park Star (obvs!) and Sober Glory, while I think Talk The Talk has much the pick of the Irish form. Mighty Park was a wow in a nothing race and the Closutton vibes are strong (whatever that means). The winner of the novice races normally steps forward on known ability and that means a number of horses could win. The most likely winner is the favourite who fully deserves top market billing; but Talk The Talk looks the proverbial 'each way bet to nothing'.
Suggestion: Try Talk The Talk each way and in a forecast underneath Old Park Star.
*
Matt's Tix Pix:Tix is a smart multi-race bet placement tool that is free to use. In this race, I'll have the favourite on A as well as Talk The Talk.
There are guaranteed daily placepot pools, and you can play with stakes as low as a penny. All winning tickets placed via Tix receive a 5% bonus on returns.
Win £100 each day of Cheltenham in our best stake-to-return Tix competition
Just bet £5 or more through the Tix app. The highest ROI ticket each day will receive £100 in tote credit added to their account.
[£200 prize on Gold Cup Day!]
*
2.00 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Perennially a small field but a high quality contest, the Arkle is a thrill a minute race where it usually pays to race handily. This year's even looks a match on paper between the well tested five-year-old Lulamba and his less experienced over fences older rival, Kopek Des Bordes. It also looks a match between Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins.
Henderson saddles Lulamba, mugged in last year's Triumph Hurdle before exacting revenge on his conqueror, Poniros, at Punchestown. This season (proper) he's run thrice over fences, winning by daylight each time. A beginners' chase success at Exeter was tarnished a touch by low sun meaning the omission of a number of the obstacles, but there was no decrying his facile score in a Sandown Grade 1 in early December; and he again raised his game when taking on and beating seasoned chasers in the Grade 2 Game Spirit at Newbury.
On that latter occasion, he had to knuckle down in what were testing conditions; but knuckle down he did, looking stronger at the finish than at any point theretofore. Having won a hurdle race in France prior to heading to Lambourn, Lulamba is now six from seven, the only blemish being when Cheltenham chinning in the Triumph. As a prominent racer that doesn't need to lead, the race should be run perfectly to suit. A clear round gives him every chance of adding a sixth Arkle for Henderson since Sprinter Sacre in 2012. However, his jumping thus far has been quite novicey.
But this is no procession. Mullins, with six Arkles in the bag himself since 2015, will strive for a magnificent seven via Kopek Des Bordes, last season's Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner. The roll of honour below attests to the historical advantage six- and seven-year-olds have had over younger or older adversaries. Indeed, we're back to Voy Por Ustedes in 2006 for the last winning five-year-old; he was following a then well-trodden path, with Well Chief (2004), Flagship Uberalles (1999) and Champleve (1998) all scoring for the kindergarten kids.
But how many five-year-olds have run in the race in recent years? Not many. Seven since 2018, to be precise. It should be noted that the septet includes the super-talented Majborough, who could only finish third of five as the 2-1 on favourite last year in that great finish. The mare Riviere d'Etel was beaten at 7/2, Haut En Couleurs at 6/1, Allmankind at 5/1, Fakir d'Oudairies at 3/1, and Saint Calvados at 11/4 - all since 2018. Hmm... the difference, in case you didn't know, is that prior to 2008 five-year-olds were in receipt of 5lb weight for age.
Returning to Kopek, he has his own question mark in the shape of a 113 day layoff and only the one run over fences. Only the Pipe pair of Well Chief and Western Warhorse have won the Arkle off a single prep - but that's two winners from only 14 to try since 1997, so hardly the knock it first appears for all that experience can only be beneficial. And that game mare Put The Kettle On defied a day longer layoff so there's precedent there, too. The horse himself won at both DRF and the Cheltenham Festival last season, and was likely over the top by the time he showed up at Punchestown: one drink too many. He'll be fresh as paint this time, which could present a challenge, and attempts to emulate Douvan, Altior and Shishkin as Supreme/Arkle winners on the opening day of successive Festivals. There's little between the top two, each with bags of class and ability, but each with a little bit to prove.
What of the rest? The mare Kargese is another to have won at last year's Festival, her County Hurdle score being the only handicap run of her career. She was a dual Grade 1 winner as a juvenile hurdler, at Leopardstown and Punchestown, and ran Sir Gino to three lengths in between times: in other words, she was a top class hurdler. Ignoring a moderate enough debut over fences (where she was bashed by Kala Conti), Kargese then won her beginners' chase - beating Lovely Hurling by a length more than did Kopek Des Bordes - before just failing to reel in Romeo Coolio in the G1 Irish Arkle at DRF. A feature of her season has been her efficient jumping and she definitely fits here with the 7lb mares' allowance; she can keep the main pair more than honest.
Sam Thomas has a very good one to work with in the shape of Steel Ally, a horse we were disappointed was able to run past our own Dartmoor Pirate with such relative ease this time two years ago. Thomas's Doctor Dino gelding is now rated two and a half stone higher than he was then, and has won four more times, so we can safely say we bumped into one. He's won small field novice chases, including a Grade 2 at Ascot, with notable ease on his most recent racecourse visits and he could be a little under-rated in the market. However, his best form is all on a softer surface (form on soft or heavy: 72P12111, form on good to soft or quicker: 251232PP). Moreover, it's his misfortune that 2026 could be a vintage Arkle with a star-studded headline act and some depth to the supporting cast.
Jax Junior was a winner over further in the Grade 2 Pendil at Kempton last time, so there are no doubts about stamina or the ground - it was good to soft that day. And he's a course winner from last season, that success coming in a novice hurdle. This is probably a little too hot but he's earned a tilt at the big time after Kempton.
You can ignore Mambonumberfive's last run when well beaten in a small field by Steel Ally, because he hated the heavy ground. Prior to that he'd won all three chase starts, including the G2 Wayward Lad at Kempton. I'd say he's probably better than a 33/1 shot but that doesn't mean I want to bet him in a race as deep as this.
Hansard looks the dreaded social runner, and has Everest to scale to trouble the judge in these waters. How's that for a mixed geographical metaphor?!
Arkle Recent Winners
Arkle Pace Projection
Kargeses is the most likely leader, though Hansard did go forward last time. I'd expect both Steel Ally and Kopek des Bordes will be handy, with Lulamba not far away - assuming he can live with the early zip.
Arkle Chase Selection
Probably a three, rather than two, way go. Lulamba sets the clear form standard, but does he want further? Kopek Des Bordes is obviously a two-miler, as is Kargese. Kopek lacks experience, whereas Kargese has three chase runs under her belt. She might get an easy lead - Hansard the possible pace pressure - and, if getting into a good rhythm, could be a bit of value against the top two.
2.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)
Previewed by Rory Delargy.
Ammes has followed a similar preparation to last year’s third, Liam Swagger. James Owen gave him three hurdle runs for a mark in the autumn, winning his first two before finishing second to leading Triumph Hurdle fancy Minella Study in the Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle at Wetherby, a race Liam Swagger won 12 months earlier.
Unlike his stablemate, Ammes failed to win on the all-weather in his prep run, but he posted a higher figure in defeat in a Class 2 handicap at Lingfield despite finishing only sixth. Timeform rate him 6lb higher on the Flat than Liam Swagger, while both they, and the BHA handicapper, have him 4lb above Liam Swagger’s mark last year, which looks fair. Owen is short of winners over jumps in recent weeks, but arrives at Cheltenham in strong form with his Flat team winning four times in the first week in March.
Saratoga represents the same connections who won this race with his half-brother Brazil (beat Gaelic Warrior) a few years ago and he prepped in a rated novice at Naas that has thrown up several winners of the Fred Winter. Not all those who won here had been successful at Naas however, and it’s worth noting that the weights for this are released after that contest. That means a few have gone in there with a view to getting a workable mark, and both Saratoga (2nd) and Munsif (3rd) caught the eye with a view to the future.
British stables have a stronger hand than usual in this, or so it appears, although the likes of Manlaga and Winston Junior have strong Irish connections. The former jumped notably well when beating Pourquoi Pas Papa in the Victor Ludorum while Winston Junior had run well behind Minella Study here before bolting up at Ascot and has been kept back for this since.
Fred Winter Hurdle Recent Winners
Fred Winter Hurdle Pace Projection
Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!
Fred Winter 2026 Pace Map
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle selection
Both Winston Junior and Ammes should run well, but my preference, on a line through Minella Study, is for Ammes. He was just denied at Wetherby off levels, whereas Winston Junior was beaten 6½ lengths by Minella Study when getting 7lb at Cheltenham. Ammes comes out as comfortably the better horse, not allowing for subsequent progress all round admittedly. He is receiving 3lb from Faye Bramley’s juvenile however, which makes my choice fairly straightforward.
3.20 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)
Previewed by Dave Renham.
The Ultima is the first handicap chase of the meeting and in these races I find the best starting point to be the past race trends. This helps build a picture of the type of horse we normally need to look for.
This is a race where British trainers have dominated, winning every renewal since 2007. The last Irish winner was Tony Martin’s Dun Doire in 2006.
Lucinda Russell has a great record in the race having won three of the last four. In 2022 and 2023 Corach Rambler prevailed for the stable and last year it was Myretown. Previous to these successes, Lucinda saddled four other runners, priced 20/1, 28/1, 16/1 and 25/1, finishing 4th, 4th, 5th and 6th respectively.
Away from trainers, let me look at some other past trends from this race:
Irish bred runners have made up 58% of the runners over the past 18 renewals and 88% (16) of the races have been won by Irish bred horses, showing their dominance.
14 of the last 18 winners finished in the first four last time out. Horses that finished 7th or worse last time out have a poor record with just 1 win from 124 runners.
From a market perspective, 14 of the last 18 winners have come from the top five in the betting. Backing all the top five runners in the market over this timeframe would have yielded a BSP profit of £41.03 (ROI 41.9%). 9 of the last 12 were one of the top three in the betting.
Horses wearing blinkers, cheekpieces and/or tongue ties have outperformed those wearing no headgear, so don’t be put off by if a horse is wearing equipment.
Age wise, 7yos and 8yos have provided 66.7% of the winners, from 52% of the runners. They seem to have a slight edge.
Past Cheltenham form is worth noting generally at the festival and that has been the case here. Previous course winners have been 1.8x more likely to win this race than horses that had not won here. Previous course winners or placed horses have been 2.5x more likely to win than horses that have not won or placed at the track.
Now let’s look at the run style data for the last 10 renewals. I personally think the previous decade for past run style analysis is a sensible time frame to use. The last 10 races give the following splits:
Although the majority of runners will race in mid division or be held up, being ridden closer to the pace has been preferable in the past, both from a win and a place perspective.
The shortlist:
Jagwar - He passes most of the key trends, but he is French bred rather than the ideal Irish bred and his run style may not be the optimum. Having said that, he seems to love Cheltenham with a course form figures of 1132. He also won at the festival last year. He tackles this trip for the first time, but the general consensus is he will stay and the vibes have been really positive from the stable. He is favourite for a reason.
Iroko - The 2025 Grand National 4th hails from the same stable as Jagwar and is currently second favourite. As with his stablemate, he is French bred but again hits most of the key trends. He is a previous winner at Cheltenham and was sent off favourite for the Grand National last year. He had found winning difficult recently, with no wins in eight runs, but he bounced back to form in December when he won the Howden Graduation Chase at Ascot.
Handstands - Trainer Ben Pauling is very sweet on this one, having been quoted as saying the horse is extremely well in here. He is an excellent trainer of handicap chasers and despite the horse’s form not being seemingly as good as last year, he looks a player dropped into handicap company. He’s likely to track the pace, which is a positive in my book.
Myretown - Last year’s winner is the only runner the stable has this time around. He’s 15lb higher now and has run poorly in two of his three subsequent starts since that success. Can’t be ruled out based on past trainer data, but not for me.
Leave Of Absence - Any 3m handicap chaser trained by Anthony Honeyball is always worth a second look. His strike rate at this sort of distance since 2022 is just shy of 20%. Leave Of Absence would ideally like the going to be good to soft or good, so should get his conditions. He looks one of the better options at bigger prices, especially looking at his penultimate run at Ascot, where he was a very good 2nd in a decent contest. Likely to be up there tracking the pace, which is another plus in all likelihood.
Ultima Recent Winners
Ultima Pace Projection
An even looking tempo overall, though a lot of perennially prominent racers may push things on from the start.
Ultima Handicap Chase Selection
Suggestion: 1pt win Jagwar & 0.5pt win Handstands
Matt's Tix Pix: A's only and not straying far from the top of the market.
The centre piece of day one is the Champion Hurdle, an extended two mile test of speed, jumping alacrity and no little stamina. All of those components are critical, as was so quintessentially evidenced a year ago when first Constitution Hill and then State Man failed to get round. Golden Ace was a fortunate beneficiary on the day but she keeps standing up and, in so doing, keeps beating some of the best boys and girls on the block.
This year's race is an inscrutable puzzle, where we must first consider form and then fit. As we'll see, those with the numbers have something to prove on the stage, while those with the best Prestbury performances have a fair bit to do on the data.
Towards the top of the market is The New Lion, a snug fit to track and trip but with question marks on the form book. Now seven, he's won all six of his completed starts - including in the Turners twelve months ago and in a trial here in January. He was desperately unimpressive on Trials day but, to his credit, did get the job done (after odds on favourite Sir Gino stepped in a hole and had to be pulled up). The verdict was a length and a half over an 18/1 shot rated 151, with a further nose back to a 50/1 chance rated 138. That is, literally, a stone below what is required.
But how literal should we be? The problem with TNL is that he's not flashy. He never wins by far. Indeed, his margins of victory have been 4.75L, 3L, 4.75L, 0.75L, and 1.5L. Constitution Hill, by comparison, won by 22L, 17L, 14L, and 12L twice in the early part of his career. But you don't get bonus points for how far...
My issue is that he's only beaten stayers and I don't think he's fast enough. He beat Wendigo, fancied for the three mile Brown Advisory over fences; he beat The Yellow Clay, entered in the Stayers'; and he beat Nemean Lion, most of whose best form is at two and a half in a bog. The New Lion retains plenty of upside potential, but I cannot have him as the favourite even in a puzzle as wacky as this one.
Representing Team Form is Brighterdaysahead, infamously beaten twice at the Festival and famously "the best I've trained" according to Gordon, who has had many, many good ones. She was electric in beating Lossiemouth more than three lengths at the Dublin Racing Festival; but she was equally good when blitzing a weaker field by 30 lengths on her pre-Festival prep a year prior. BDA has been beaten at the last two Cheltenham Festivals, at 5/2 and 5/6, and people have said that she doesn't handle the track. That's a very credible assumption, but correlation does not imply causation. There are alternative theories...
Regarding defeat in the Dawn Run of 2024, it is unquestionably true that Jack Kennedy was eying Paul Townend, aboard perceived sole danger Jade de Grugy. While they cat-and-moused about, Lorcan Williams pulled a stealth move from the rear and Golden Ace, his very willing and able partner, charged past catching both kitty and squeaky napping.
A year later and, though we didn't know it at the time, it was to be a rematch between Golden Ace and Brighterdaysahead, both Connie and State Man failing to complete. As you can see from the replay below, BDA was stopped to a walk by State Man's last flight tumble and would otherwise have been second. However, there's no escaping the flatness of that effort when set against the main body of her work: she has five better Racing Post Ratings as a barometer of that assertion.
So what went wrong? Well, it could be the track, of course. But a viable counter theory is that she 'bounced' off a massive run at the end of December, that distance annihilation of State Man, Winter Fog et al in a G1. Failing to run to form after a career best is a common theme in racing, and it fits what happened here. I'm not saying that was the reason, but I am saying it might well have been.
If that was the case, though, we have another small issue: Brighterdaysahead again ran mightily in that tough G1 at DRF where she showed Lossiemouth her capable derriere. That was a mere 37 days ago and it is far from inconceivable she has again left her Champion Hurdle chance on the outskirts of Dublin. Nevertheless, she does have the best form in the race.
Lossiemouth had a similarly hard race in defeat that day and, furthermore, I've convinced myself that she needs two and a half miles. Indeed, Rich Ricci's racing manager was quoted on Nick Luck's poddie as saying, "I think everyone agrees she's better at two and a half miles." So it's pretty reckless - or ballsy - stuff to run her in thechampionship two mile race when it's not her best trip. I'm pretty sure that a steadily run three miles, such as often transpires in the Stayers' Hurdle, would be ideal for her, and I think connections have missed a trick in not considering her for that race.
In her favour is bombproof course form, having won the Triumph (2m1f, I know), and the Mares' Hurdle twice. Soft ground is definitely beneficial to her cause, but even in an unfathomable year she's not for me for all that she's the one which brings both form and some sort of fit to the party. My feeling, or at least the way I want to bet, is that either strongest form or strongest fit wins the day; and if you take my trip reservation to heart she is a compromise on both. Cheek pieces are added this time, in a bid to sharpen her up; but a horse that cannot go faster, cannot go faster. She'll be an 'egg on face' winner in these quarters.
We need to talk more about Golden Ace, another with a perfect fit but slightly questionable form credentials. It's hard to crab a mare that has two upset Festival scores on her card, and that is yet to be out of the first two in eight races at around two miles (11112212). And she deserves all the plaudits for twice passing Brighterdaysahead up this hill. Indeed, bar a match race at Wetherby (where she was found to be not right subsequently), she's only been beaten by State Man and Sir Gino at this range over hurdles. Neither of that pair can attend this year, unfortunately, and if there is one horse in the line up that looks nailed on to run their race - to be fair, there may not even be one, it's that sort of year! - it's her. She will be very hard to kick out of the frame for all that it feels like we should be trying to get her off the top step of the podium.
This game is about opinions, and my opinion is that Poniros is as bogus as they come. He would need five horses to under-perform, or to improve a stone near enough, to win the Champion Hurdle. I've already outlined how each of the top fancies might under-perform, but it's very difficult to see them all failing to deliver. This lad fell in by some miracle in the Triumph Hurdle, at 100/1, and has failed to back it up twice since. A four length reversal of form at the hooves of Lulamba reads well enough in terms of four-year-old hurdle lines, but he was 14 lengths behind Brighterdaysahead last time.
It's true that he might have had less of a hard race than either BDA or Lossie there, and that he might be better on better ground, and that Tony Bloom has golden sphericals... but this would rate as one of Willie's gweatest wabbits fwom a hat if he could win the Champion with a five-year-old that has only had three hurdles starts, two of them defeats.
The handicappers Alexei and Tutti Quanti will try to 'do a Rooster Booster', that horse emerging from the weight-for-ability ranks to take the Blue Riband. In Rooster's case, however, he'd won the County Hurdle the year before and had been running in conditions races - up to G1 level - for a full season by the time he reappeared at the Festival. Alexei - "Ullo John, gotta new motor?" (I fully appreciate a lot of these yesteryear references will be lost on many, here's the video which I think is worth the telepathic joke before the 'song') - was alextric at Cheltenham in the Greatwood Hurdle in November, cruising through the race against 17 rivals and charging away at the finish.
He might have still been feeling that a touch when only third off top weight in an Ascot G3 handicap at Christmas; and on his most recent run he showed the legs were still in each corner with a satisfactory defeat of good old stick Rubaud in the Kingwell. A rating of 150-odd gives him plenty still to find with the pick of the mares once their allowance is factored in; only six, if he can keep progressing he could be next year's man. I did back him for this after the Greatwood at a bigger price than he is now, but I don't especially think he has a better chance than at that time.
Tutti Quanti also steps out of handicap company; actually, to give him his due, he bounds out having demolished the Schweppes/Betfair/William Hill Hurdle field by 15 lengths last time, a performance that has nudged his official peg up to 151. To give some context, Brighterdaysahead is 160 on the Irish scale, Lossiemouth 159 on the same - both also receive 7lb sex allowance. The New Lion is 159, Poniros 153 (Ire), Anzadam 153 (Ire), Golden Ace 152 (gets 7lb), Alexei 148, and Workahead 145. Phew.
The point I'm making here is that, assuming at least one of the main trio performs to their level (not a given), Tutti Quanti needs to progress another 10lb. He's only six so that's conceivable but often what knocks the eye out - as his last day win did - fails to pass the sniff test, to mix my sensory metaphors. Moreover, TQ's best form has been on rain softened ground.
And Mullins still has the, erm, mercurial - yes, let's call him mercurial - Anzadam card to play. He's been notoriously difficult to train but, seemingly sounder this campaign, was second to Golden Ace in the Fighting Fifth and then fourth behind Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth in their two Leopardstown Grade 1's. What makes him worth a second glance is that he probably had the easiest - or least hard - race in the Irish Champion Hurdle at DRF and it could be contended that his best form is on a sound surface. In a race where we're making excuses for just about all of them, that doesn't feel like too much of a stretch.
Workahead is saddled by the best Festival trainer of the last five years not called Willie, but even Henry's magic won't be enough to get this lad up the hill in front second time around.
Champion Hurdle Recent Winners
Champion Hurdle Pace Projection
A few that can go forward but none that need the lead; so my guess is a solid even gallop - fair for all.
Champion Hurdle Selection
This is so difficult. Brighterdaysahead has the best two mile form but reservations remain about her Cheltenham runs as well as how hard a race she had last time; ditto Lossiemouth on the last day exertion and her best form is over further and possibly on softer. The New Lion hasn't run a number to be the price he is though he remains completely unexposed; and Golden Ace is a mare we're all trying to get beaten in spite of her running her race every time.
I have managed to discount Poniros and Workahead, but small bits of each way cases can be made for each of Alexei, Tutti Quanti and especially Anzadam.
Suggestion: It's as much of a no bet race as ever there was; but that's not in the spirit of things. I'd chance Brighterdaysahead from the head of the market, and maybe play Anzadameach way for the minimum stake your bookmaker will accept.
Matt's Tix Pix: Lossiemouth, Golden Ace and The New Lion on A, Brighterdaysahead on B. Not confident!
There's been just one horse on my mind for this race since October and it's a Dan Skelton runner that has been in woeful form for most of the season. He began the year putting up a remarkable performance that really caught my eye, when he won at lowly Newton Abbot, and I’m banking on a return to form here.
Previously, he had won a Grade 3 Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham April meeting and finished 4th in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen last year, before winning that Intermediate Chase at Newton Abbot.
And that's where his struggles began. It turns out that beating a 12lb superior runner on ratings and long odds on favourite (Blueking d'Oreaux) while actually giving that rival 12lb(!) doesn't help your handicap mark too much. Who knew?!
Dan Skelton does now, but he has been doing a great job rectifying his mistake and getting Riskintheground back down to the same 137 mark he won that Grade 3 Handicap Chase at Cheltenham's April meeting last year. He also ran 7th in a big Novice Handicap at Sandown and 4th in the Summer Plate off 139, between Cheltenham and Newton Abbot.
After his surprise Newton Abbot win he was put up to 145, but was 3lb well in thanks to a penalty when probably not staying the 3m2f in the big handicap chase at Newbury (formerly the Hennessey) on his next start. He will be better suited to the drop back to 2m5f here.
He then made a bad mistake at the third last on his following run at Cheltenham, off his true 145 mark, before weakening in the last half furlong. Back down to 142, Dan Skelton ran him on soft ground at Cheltenham on Trials Day, where he finished second last to get another 2lb reduction to 140.
The next piece of the master plan was running him on heavy ground at Newbury in the Grade 2 Denman Chase. Despite being the clear lowest rated runner in the field, he had to give two of the four runners weight. He carried the same weight as 164 rated L'Homme De Presse and actually gave 2lb to the eventual winner (and Gold Cup bound) Haiti Coleurs. Unsurprisingly, he ended up finishing a (tailed off) last of 4.
But alas, the handicapper wasn't buying it and left his rating unchanged at 140. That probably didn't please Skelton too much, as he's repeatedly said he doesn't think the horse has anything in hand at the moment. He declared him to run in the Ascot Chase but took him out at the 48 hour declarations, as he probably thought the handicapper wouldn't drop him a pound even if he finished tailed off again. I doubt he wanted to risk another slog in the mud this near to the Festival.
So he sent him to Kempton instead for the Ladbrokes Handicap Chase, where he finished tailed off there instead. This time the handicapper was a believer and dropped him the last 2lbs to leave him on a very eyecatching 137. Dan Skelton was last seen patting himself on the back. Phase 1 complete!
Festival Plate Recent Winners
Festival Plate Pace Map
Festival Plate 2026 Pace Map
Festival Plate Selection
Given the better Spring ground (barely beaten a rival on his last three runs on soft/heavy), the return to Cheltenham and the Skelton magic, I’m banking on Riskintheground being ready to go on Tuesday. This is coming up to his time of year and I see him running a big race for a stable who are really beginning to focus on these Festival handicaps. I think it's been the plan all season.
Suggestion: Riskintheground - 0.5 points each way at 40/1
Matt's Tix Pix: Five on A, and five more on B. At least!
5.20 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)
Previewed by David Massey.
Sue Smith knows what it takes to train a Festival handicap winner, as demonstrated with Mister McGoldrick & Vintage Clouds. Her expertise, along with the partnership with her grandson Joel Parkinson that has seen an uptick in the yard’s fortunes this year, mean Grand Geste gets my vote here.
Bar a blip at Doncaster, when he just wasn’t right for whatever reason, he’s improved with each start this season. He was very impressive when winning the Tommy Whittle at Haydock back in December, putting in an excellent round of jumping from the front and beating a resurgent My Silver Lining by six and a half lengths.
The way he came clear in the straight suggested stamina was his strong suit, and he did nothing to dispel that suspicion when winning the Grand National Trial back at Haydock last month, for all that turned into more of a speed test than is normally the case. In fact, I’d mark him up a bit for having the tactical speed to cope that day, and a 6lb rise looks more than fair.
Good to soft ground, usually a certainty for Day One (barring an unexpected downpour on the day), seems to suit him very well. Plus, this is a partnership that knows how to train staying chasers, with the likes of O’Connell and Konfusion winning for them in extreme tests this season.
Walking On Air, who has finished fifth in a Pertemps Final here in 2023 and last year was midfield in the Kim Muir (when arguably not getting the best of rides), has to be of some interest too. After a couple of poor efforts this year, it was much better at Doncaster last time. The addition of some cheekpieces seemingly the catalyst in finishing third to Dartmoor Pirate, not knocked around late on by Brian Hughes. He’ll need the headgear to work again, but is nicely treated, and will have been teed up to a nicety by Faye Bramley here. Harry Cobden was booked to ride a few days ago, and that's hardly a negative to his chances either.
On paper, Backmersackme is the best of the Irish challenge and does have a decent piece of Cheltenham chase form to his name, having finished second to Three Card Brag here back in October. After a ready win in a Grade 3 Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, the handicapper has reacted with a 10lb rise. There’s no Sean Bowen to help out this time either, with Sean being claimed by Olly Murphy to ride top weight Wade Out. Indeed, his pilot on Tuesday, Donagh Meyler, does not have the best of form figures on Backmersackme, reading 664546, which hardly inspires confidence in a bet at the price.
From the Irish runners, I think I’d rather have Paul Nolan’s Iceberg Theory as he does have quite a few plus points. Not least his form over fences this season, which has seen him win two of his three starts. That form couldn’t have worked out much better either. He beat Gordon Elliott’s Boston Rover at Limerick last May and the runner-up went and won his next three before finding sticky ground at Limerick not to his liking. He then went and beat the useful O’Toole at Cork in November after a break, that form franked when the second won the Listed QuinnBet Handicap Chase at Leopardstown last week.
He goes well fresh, seems to act on any ground, and remains unexposed as a staying chaser. Plenty to like at twice the price and more of Backmersackme.
National Hunt Chase Recent Winners
NB This race was a non-handicap before 2025.
National Hunt Chase Pace Projection
NH Chase 2026 Pace Map
National Hunt Chase Selection
Selection: Grand Geste @ 14/1 general
*
That's how I, along with the guest brains, see Tuesday's action. Seven very open races so it's entirely feasible we miss our mark - enjoy the ride, and caveat emptor, dear reader.
Stay lucky
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GoldenAce_ChampionHurdle2025_2.png320560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2026-03-09 16:07:432026-03-09 19:00:29Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day One Preview, Tips
2025 Winner: Kopek Des Bordes Trainer – Willie Mullins Jockey – Paul Townend UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses…..
• 25 of the last 29 winners won their last race
• 14 of the last 16 winners came from the first 4 in the market
• 13 of the last 14 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
• 14 of the last 22 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
• 23 of the last 31 winners ran in the last 45 days
• Irish-trained horses have won 20 of the last 34 runnings
• 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 19 of the last 21 runnings
• Willie Mullins has won the race 8 times in total and for 6 of the last 13 years
• 9 of the last 13 winners were either Mullins (6) or Henderson-trained (3)
• 28 of the last 31 winners had raced that same calendar year
• Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 13 runnings
• 7 of the last 12 winners had been rated 153 or more
• 12 of the last 13 winners returned a single-figure price
• 12 of the last 17 winners were previous bumper winners
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times
Negatives…..
• Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 4 from the last 29. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
• Since 1992 43 horses (44) wearing head-gear have been beaten – but Kopek Des Bordes won with a first-time hood in 2025
• We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
• Just 5 of the last 23 winners came here unbeaten
• Just 2 of the last 23 winners aged 7 or older
• Just 3 outright winning favourites in the last 21 runnings
• 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
• Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade
2025 Winner: JANGO BAIE (5/1) Trainer – Nicky Henderson Jockey – Nico de Boinville UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 16 of the last 21 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
• 19 of the last 26 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
• 14 of the last 16 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 24)
• 24 of the last 26 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
• 15 of the last 20 winners had won at least twice over fences before
• 17 of the last 19 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 16 of the last 23 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
• 15 of the last 22 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
• 9 of the last 14 winners were unbeaten over fences
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 8 times
• Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 11 runnings
• 11 of the last 14 winners trained by Willie Mullins (6) or Nicky Henderson (5)
• 10 of the last 14 favourites have won
Negatives…..
• Only 3 of the last 39 winners failed to win or finish second last time out
• Just 3 of the last 35 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
• Only 4 of the last 34 winners were older than 7 years-old
• The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
• Ex-flat horses have a poor record
• Only 2 winners since 2000 won with headgear
• 5 year-olds are 0-17 since 2007
• Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (previous season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners
2025 Winner: PUTURHANDSTOGETHER (17/2) Trainer – Joseph O’Brien Jockey – Mark Walsh UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 12 of the last 21 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
• French bred horses have a good record
• 10 of the last 21 winners started their careers in France
• Respect Fillies
• 14 of the last 21 winners carried 11st+
• 9 of the last 21 winners won last time out
• 10 of the last 15 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
• 11 of the last 21 had run in the last 25 days
• David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (4 of last 13), Joseph O’Brien (3 of the last 7) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
• 6 of the last 14 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 14 priced 25/1+)
• 13 of the last 21 winners returned a double-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• Joseph O’Brien has trained 3 of the last 7 (including last 2)
• 15 of the last 21 winners were rated between 124-134
• 8 of the last 18 winners were British-trained
• Irish have trained the last 8 winners
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 16 runnings
• 16 of the last 21 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
Negatives….
• Just 3 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 45 between them
• Only 2 of the last 12 winners carried less than 11st
• Just 3 of the last 21 winners rated 135+
• Horses bred in Britain are 0-73 (last 17 years)
• Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 24 (just 4 placed in top 5 too)
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
• Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 20
================================================
The 2026 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
£4 Discount With Promo Code: RTCFBG26
Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.
Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.
2025 Winner: MYRETOWN Trainer – Lucinda Russel Jockey – Patrick Wadge UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 20 of the last 26 winners were officially rated 143 or less
• 18 of the last 25 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 21 of the last 25 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
• 19 of the last 25 were novices or second season chasers
• 10 of the last 18 winners were rated between 142-146 (8 between 142-145)
• Horses rated 140+ have won 16 of the last 25 runnings
• 10 of the last 23 won last time out
• Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
• 10 of the last 14 winners wore headgear
• 10 of the last 16 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
• Jonjo O’Neill, Lucinda Russell, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
• All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
• 5 of the last 11 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
• 5 of the last 12 winners ran in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) that season
• 13 of the last 17 winners had run at the Festival before
• Northern-based runners have a good record
Negatives….
• Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 13 of the last 21 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8 and Chianti Classico in 2024 carried 11st 4bs)
• Horses aged 11 or older are just 4 from 59 to even get placed
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 26
• Only 4 winners in the last 17 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
• Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
• The Irish have won just 2 of the last 57 runnings (since 1967)
• Irish-trained runners are 0-51 in the last 19 runnings
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
2025 Winner: GOLDEN ACE (25/1) Trainer – Jeremy Scott Jockey – Lorcan Williams UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 36 of the last 42 won last time out
• 11 of the last 16 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles
• Horses unbeaten that season often do well (12 of last 15)
• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 22 of the last 27 runnings between them
• 11 of the last 17 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
• The Irish have won 16 of the last 27 runnings
• Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 16 (9 in total)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 14 runnings (5 in total)
• 30 of the last 36 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (13 of last 18)
• 17 of the last 27 winners had won at the Festival before
• 28 of the last 41 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (5 winners, 6 places in last 18 runnings)
• 14 of the last 30 winners started as flat horses
• 10 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten that season
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 9 times, including 4 of the last 9 years
• 7 of the last 17 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
• Mares are currently 5 from 12 during last 10 runnings
• 9 of the last 13 favourites won
• 21 of the last 25 winners had run within the last 60 days
Negatives….
• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 2 from 114 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-32 in the last 43 runnings)
• Just 2 of the last 19 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
• International Hurdle winners are 0-from-14 (last 22 years)
• Only 2 of the last 27 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before
• The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was Constitution Hill (2023), but before that was 53 years ago (Bula)
4:40 – Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV
2025 Winner: JAGWAR (3/1 fav) Trainer – Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill Jnr UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 29 of the last 38 winners were officially rated 140 or less
• 13 of the last 17 winners carried under 11-0
• Respect French-breds
• 15 of the last 21 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
• 11 of the last 22 winners had won a race in Feb or March
• Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
• The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 28 runnings
• 18 of the last 25 winners returned at double-figure odds
• 24 of the last 34 winners had run at the Festival before (but 9 of last 14 were having Festival debut)
• 25 of the last 26 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 10 of the last 16 winners had 9 or less chase runs
• 19 of the last 26 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
• 8 of the last 10 winners were novices or second season chasers
• 20 of the last 22 winners had raced that calendar year
• Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
• 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
• The last 7 winners had won at Cheltenham that season
• 3 of the last 7 ridden by a claiming jockey
Negatives….
• Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
• The Irish have only sent out 5 winners since 1982, but this could be turning with these all coming since 2016
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Only 4 of the last 22 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
• Just 5 winning favourites in the last 20 years, but one in 2025 (Jagwar)
• Only 6 of last 31 winners won with 11st+
• Just 3 winners older than 9 in the last 13 years
• Only 2 of the last 22 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
5:20 – Princess Royal National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV
2025 Winner: HAITI COULEURS Trainer – Rebecca Curtis Jockey – Ben Jones UK/Irish: UK
**NOTE** The race conditions were changed in 2025 - run as a Novices' Handicap Chase - making a lot of the past trends pointless.
Pluses…..
• 13 of the last 24 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 15 of the last 20 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old (26 of the last 35)
• 10 of the last 16 winners had run 5+ times over fences
• 12 of the last 15 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
• 8 of the last 15 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
• 9 of the last 19 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
• 11 of the last 16 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
• 12 of the last 15 winners returned a single-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear (Corbetts Cross 1st-time hood in 2024)
• 10 of the last 15 winners Irish-trained
• 11 of the last 15 winners were rated 145 (or more)
• Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (7 winners)
• Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-23)
• Jockey Derek O’Connor has 3 wins / 5 places (from 18 rides)
• Derek O’Connor & Patrick Mullins have won 7 of the last 15 (4 P Mullins, 3 O’Connor)
• Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 14 runnings
• Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 17 runners
• 3 of the last 8 winners owned by Ronnie Bartlett
• Favourites have won 5 of the last 16 runnings (31%)
Negatives….
• 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 84 since 1989
• Just 5 of the last 14 winners were top-rated
• Favourites have won 5 of the last 16 runnings
• Just 2 of the last 34 winners were aged 6 years-old
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 19
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
• Horses with less than 3 chase starts often don’t fare well
• Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (2 from 18), but Haiti Couleurs won in 2025 rated 135
• Just 2 winners in the last 17 returned bigger than 12/1
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ConstitutionHill_TolworthHurdle.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-08 07:00:082026-03-08 09:49:032026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 10th March 2026)
2025 Winner: THE NEW LION (3/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 19 of the last 21 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 8 of the last 12 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• 13 of the last 17 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
• 21 of the last 25 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
• 25 of the last 31 winners won last time out
• 30 of the last 31 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• The Irish have won 15 of the last 23 (10 of last 12)
• Horses rated 150+ do well
• 14 of the last 17 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
• 26 of the last 31 winners (including last 14) had won at least one bumper race
• 19 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 6
• In the last 14 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 29 of the 42 top 3 places
• 25 of the last 27 were NH bred
• Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (9 of the last 15 had won an Irish Point)
• Respect Willie Mullins – 7 winners in last 18 years (5 of the last 12)
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
• Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times (1993, 2004, 2013)
Negatives….
• Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
• Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
• Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 60 (since 1988)
• Only two of the last 39 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 21 of the last 22 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten – The New Lion (2025) bucked the trend
• Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten 0 from 31 in the last 19 years)
• The last 24 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
• 18 of the last 19 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
• 27 of the last 31 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
• Respect 7 year-olds – won 16 of the last 19 (21 of last 26)
• 14 of the last 20 winners won last time out
• 8 of the last 16 winners were beaten on their chase debut
• 9 of the last 18 winners had won a bumper before
• 9 of the last 19 favourites won
• 16 of the last 19 winners aged 7
• The last 11 winners were rated 150+
• 12 of the last 14 winners returned single-figures in the betting
• 22 of the last 25 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
• Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
• Irish bred horses are 23 from the last 29
• 13 of the last 19 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
• 9 of the last 17 winners were trained in Ireland
• Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins (7 wins) and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (12 of the last 21 between them)
• Willie Mullins has trained 3 of the last 5 winners
• 27 of the last 33 were novice hurdling last season
• 7 of the last 16 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (57 of the last 59 winners had)
• 14 of the last 19 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
• 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
Negatives….
• No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
• Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
• Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
• Just 4 of the last 26 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
• No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
• French bred horses are 2-from-46 (last 18 years, but the 2022 winner L’Homme Presse and 2024 winner Fact To File were French-breds)
• The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 14 years
• Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 26 winners)
• Mares are currently 0-from-12 in the race (last 28 runnings)
• Horses in headgear have a poor record
• Drinmore Novice Chase winners are 0-10
• Gordon Elliott runners are 0-11 since 2011
2025 Winner: JIMMY DU SEUIL (16/1) Trainer – Willie Mullins Jockey – Danny Mullins UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 13 of the last 21 were 2nd season hurdlers
• 19 of the last 25 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
• 13 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before (11 had top 4 finish)
• 12 of the last 16 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
• 12 of the last 17 winners were rated in the 140’s
• 16 of the last 26 winners aged 6 or 7
• 12 of the last 16 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 15 of the last 20 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
• 21 of the last 31 winners won earlier that season
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners
• Respect trainers Dan Skelton (2 of last 3), Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (9 wins in last 16 years)
• 11 of the last 24 winners were French-Bred
• 15 of the last 32 won last time out
• Respect Irish-trained runners (8 of the last 17)
• Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (15 of last 17 winners)
• 18 of the last 21 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott was won 3 of the last 15 runnings
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 12 (4 in total)
• 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
• 4 of the last 7 winners wore headgear
• The last 29 winners aged 9 or younger
• The last 10 year-old winner in 1995
Negatives….
• Just one winning favourite in the last 22 years (2020)
• Only 6 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 313 to even place since 1999
• Just 6 winners since 2000 aged 8+
• Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 & 2025, plus had the second in 2019, but overall has an average record – 56 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (2 wins Jimmy Du Seuil 2025 & Bleu Berry, 2018)
3:20 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV
Note: From 2025 this race was run back as a handicap after 8 years run as a conditions race
Pluses….
• The Irish have won 17 of the last 20 runnings
• Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
• 17 of the last 20 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 23 of the last 27 winners came from the top three in the betting
• 11 of the last 20 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
• 14 of the last 20 ran in either the Nov or Dec Cross Country races
• 16 of the last 20 winners had run on the course before
• Respect jockey Keith Donoghue (5 wins in total)
• 16 or the last 20 winners were aged 10 or younger
• 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8 or 9
• Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 13 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 8 runnings
• 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
• 10 of the last 20 winners had run in the NH Chase before
• 6 of the last 10 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
• 7 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
• 9 of the last 12 winners wore a tongue-tie
Negatives….
• Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but the 2022 winner Delta Work was running for the first time over the X-Country course
• Just 4 of the last 15 winners won their last race
• Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 101, but the 2020 winner was aged 6
• Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 17
• Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
2025 Winner: MARINE NATIONALE (5/1) Trainer – Barry Connell Jockey – Sean Flanagan UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 13 of the last 25 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
• 4 of the last 13 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
• 26 of the last 41 had won at the Festival before
• Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 26 between them
• The last 5 winners were trained in Ireland
• Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 14
• 31 of the last 39 winners aged between 7-9
• 50% of the last 12 winners ran in the Shloer Chase (Cheltenham)
• 14 of the last 24 winners won last time out
• 15 of the last 20 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 20 of the last 23 winners had run that calendar year
• 42 of the last 44 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
• 18 of the last 26 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 9 of the last 19 winners were French-bred
• 13 of the last 23 winners were second season chasers
• 18 of the last 20 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
• 23 of the last 27 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 18 of the last 26 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
• 7 of the last 14 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
• Past champions do well – 14 horses have won the CC more than once
Negatives….
• Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 40 years
• Just 1 winner in last 21 had run 4+ times that season
• Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
• Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 2 wins in the race (Energumene 2022 & 2023)
• Just 3 of the last 24 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
• Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
• Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-6 (last 2 winners beaten in that DRF race)
• Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 50 years
• Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 46 years
• 7 of the last 8 odds-on favourites have lost (over the last 10 years)
• Just one mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)
================================================
The 2026 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
£4 Discount With Promo Code: RTCFBG26
Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.
Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.
• 8 of the last 12 winners carried 11st or more
• 18 of the last 22 winners had run at the Festival before
• 8 of the last 22 winners ran in the previous year’s renewal
• Irish have won 6 of the last 13 runnings
• 11 of the last 16 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 17 winners were novices or second season chasers
• 13 of the last 20 winners aged between 6-8
• 14 of the last 22 winners were aged 8 or older
• Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
• Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 22
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 12 placed)
• 13 of the last 15 winners were rated at least 138
• 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
• Novices have won 7 of the last 17 runnings
• 5 of the last 11 winners won after a 91+ day break
• 12 of the last 14 winners were rated between 135-147
• 12 of the last 15 winners rated between 138-150
• 8 of the last 12 winners carried 11st or more in weight
• 22 of the last 26 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
• Course form is often a big plus
Negatives….
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 33 runnings, but the 2022 winner was a 10 year-old
• Trainer Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Last time out winners are just 1 from last 18
• Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 2 from 37 since 2005 – but last year’s winner Jazzy Matty was 6 and returned 15/2
• Only 2 of the last 21 winners were favourites
• Just 3 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
• Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record
5:30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV
• 31 of the last 33 had won last time out (all of last 22)
• 26 of the last 33 winners trained in Ireland
• Respect Irish-trained runners (26 from 42)
• 24 of the last 33 came from the top 6 in the betting
• 25 of the last 33 were Irish-bred
• 13 of the last 25 winners were second season horses
• 19 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 22 of the last 33 winners aged 5 years-old
• 22 of the last 24 had their debut runs in Ireland
• 12 of the last 23 had been beaten in a race before
• 6 of the last 16 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
• Respect Willie Mullins (14 winners) – 5 of the last 6
• The Irish lead the British 27-7 in the race history
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
• 14 of the last 23 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• Mares are 4-23 in the last 20 runnings (Total Enjoyment, Fayonagh, Relegate, Bambino Fever)
• 8 of the last 10 winners had run in February
• 3 of the last 7 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud
Negatives….
• Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
• Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
• Just 2 of the last 15 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
• Only 4 of the last 15 winners were won by UK-based trainers
• 4 year-olds are 1 from 71 since 2000 (Cue Card)
• Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/PremierMagic_CheltenhamFestival2023.png319830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-08 06:00:282026-03-08 09:49:112026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 11th March 2026)
Each day of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival for you!
Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 17 of the last 21 winners had won at Cheltenham before.
While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize that Teahupoo won in 2024 and is a red-hot favourite to win back his crown.
You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2026 below.
2025 Winner: AIR OF ENTITLEMENT (16/1) Trainer – Henry de Bromhead Jockey – Rachael Blackmore UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• A new race (Just 10 renewals)
• All 10 winners aged 5 or 6
• 7 of the last 10 winners trained in Ireland, but 3 of last 4 UK trained
• Favourites have won 3 of the 10 runnings
• 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
• 8 of the 10 winners had won over 2m2f or further
• 4 of the 10 winners were French-bred
• 5 of the last 10 winners were top or 2nd top rated
• 5 of the last 10 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 5 of the last 10 past winners started their careers in France
• 6 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
• 6 of the 10 winners were unbeaten that season
• 4 of the 10 winners have been aged 5 years-old
• 6 of the last 10 winners aged 6 (LAST 6)
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
• Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 10 runnings
Negatives….
• British trained runners are 3-from-71
• Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-12
• Gordon Elliott is 0-9
• JP McManus owned are 0-from-12
• 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-26
• 4 year-olds are 0-9
2025 Winner: CALDWELL POTTER (7/1) Trainer – Paul Nicholls Jockey – Harry Cobden UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 13 of the last 17 winners aged 6 or 7
• 14 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 2 last time
• 11 of the last 17 winners were a single-figure price
• 9 of the last 15 winners were previous bumper or point winners
• 4 of the last 9 winners ran in the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase on Trials Day
• 12 of the last 13 winners British-trained
• 6 of the last 17 winners ran over hurdles at last year’s Festival
• 15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 11 of the last 12 winners rated 137+
• 10 of the last 17 winners had only won once over fences
• 7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-7 or more
• Brian Hughes has a good record (2 wins from just 5 rides)
• 10 of the last 11 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• The last 11 winners carried 11-2 or more
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race twice
Negatives….
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners didn't finish in the top 3 last time out
• Just 1 on the last 17 winners had won more than two chase races
• Only 2 of the last 17 winners aged 8 or older
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners aged 5
• Only 2 of the last 17 winners Irish-trained
• Follow Irish-trained mares (15 of last 18)
• The favourite (or 2nd fav) has won 14 of the last 18 runnings
• 11 of the last 18 favourites have won
• 14 of the last 18 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
• 16 of the last 18 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• Willie Mullins has trained 11 of the last 18 winners
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• 11 of the last 18 winners had won or placed at a previous Festival
• Novices generally do well
• 13 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 14 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 11 renewals
• 14 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 18 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males
• 13 of the last 18 won last time out
• Rich Ricci mares are 4-10 in the last 11 runnings
Negatives….
• Avoid front-runners
• Winners of the previous season Dawn Run Mares’ Novice Hurdle (0-5)
• British-bred mares are currently 3-90
• Just 3 outright favourites in the last 11 runnings
• Just one winner from last 34 runners wearing headgear have won
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
• Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
• Just 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)
2025 Winner: BOB OLINGER (8/1) Trainer – Gordon Elliott Jockey – Rachael Blackmore UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 15 of the last 21 won last time out
• 7 of the last 12 winners were second season hurdlers
• 22 of the last 26 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 31 of the last 36 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
• 19 of the last 25 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 19 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures in the betting
• 10 of the last 24 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 8 of the last 19 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
• 21 of the last 26 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 17 of the last 29 winners won or placed at the Festival before
• 16 of the last 21 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race
• 19 of the last 29 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
• 3 of the last 8 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Since 1987 all winners bar Bob Olinger (10) and Sire Du Berlais (11) aged 9 or younger
Negatives….
• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
• Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (Nicholls Canyon 2017 and Penhill 2016)
• The Irish have won the race just 8 times since 1995 (but have won the last 5)
• Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 36 runnings
• Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since1986 (1 from 70) - 2023 year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (11)
================================================
The 2026 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
£4 Discount With Promo Code: RTCFBG26
Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.
Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.
2025 Winner: FACT TO FILE (6/4 fav) Trainer – Willie Mullins Jockey – Mark Walsh UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 17 of the 21 winners had won at Cheltenham before
• 8 of the last 13 winners were 2nd season chasers
• All 18 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
• 14 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 15 of the last 18 had won or placed at the Festival before
• The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (8 from 32)
• The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
• 17 of the last 21 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
• 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 16 of the last 17 aged 7-9 years-old
• 17 of the last 18 winners were rated 161+
• Horse rated 170+ are 4-6
• 4 of the last 21 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
• 15 of last 21 winners were fav or 2nd fav
• 11 of the last 18 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 18 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 10 of the last 14 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls, Henry de Bromhead, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time headgear (3 from 13)
• 12 of the last 18 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Last 12 winners were French-bred
• All winners ran 5 or less times that season
• 6 of the last 10 winners trained by Willie Mullins
• Last 14 winners aged 9 or younger
• The Irish have won 8 of the last 10 runnings
• Since upgraded, the last 18 winners ALL ran at the previous season’s Festival (2008)
• All 18 winners (since becoming Grade 1) won over minimum of 2m4f
Negatives….
• Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
• No winner aged 11 or older
• Only 1 of the last 17 winners aged 10
• Just one winner rated 160 or below
• Just 6 of the last 18 won last time out
• Gordon Elliott runners 0-8
• No winner was having their Festival debut
2025 Winner: DODDIETHEGREAT (25/1) Trainer – Nicky Henderson Jockey – Brian Hughes UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• Irish have won the last 7 of last 10 runnings
• 13 of the last 14 winners aged 8 or younger
• Last 14 winners carried 10st-9lbs+ - with 12 10st 11lbs
• 10 of the last 18 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 13 of the last 25 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 15 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 14 of the last 19 winners were rated between 131-142 (inc)
• 12 of the last 15 winners were rated between 138-148
• 12 of the last 21 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 9 of the last 14 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 6 of the last 13 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
• 9 of the last 12 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 25 winners won their last race
• 6 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 3 of the last 17 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
• Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 11 runnings (had 1st & 2nd last year)
• Respect horses with headgear (10 since 2000) and 9 of the last 10
• 9 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie
• 7 of the last 10 winners Irish-trained
• 6 of the last 10 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)
Negatives….
• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
• Only 2 winning favourites in last 20 years
• Just 1 winner in the last 42 years aged 10+
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Paul Nicholls is currently 1 from 21 (One winner, One third and two 2nds in the last 12 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 59
5:30 - Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV
2025 Winner: DAILY PRESENT (12/1) Trainer – Paul Nolan Jockey – Mr B T Stone UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• Respect horses aged between 7-9 year-olds
• 10 of the last 13 winners aged 7-8
• 13 of the last 18 winners failed to win earlier that season
• 11 of the last 18 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 10 of the last 14 winners rated between 137-143
• 6 of the last 7 winners were novices
• 10 of the last 16 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
• 14 of the last 17 winners carried 11st 4lbs+
• 12 of the last 17 winners ran in February
• Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 20 of the last 26 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 9 of the last 15 winners wore headgear
• 5 of the last 11 winners wore a tongue-strap
• 14 of the last 17 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019 and 2024
• Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (4 of the last 14)
• 21 of the last 23 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Negatives….
• Just 8 Irish winners in last 42 years (but have won 8 of the last 12)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 25
• Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race (never won it)
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record – but last year’s winner 10-7
• Just on winning 6yold since 1971
• French breds are 1 from 95 since 2005
• Just 2 of the last 21 winners aged 10+
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 4 from 119 since 2009
• Just 2 of the last 23 winners won last time out
• Patrick Mullins has never ridden the winner
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/PaisleyPark_Cleeve_830x320.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-08 05:00:522026-03-08 09:49:432026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 12th March 2026)
It was with the usual excitement that I headed west from Hackney to the monied enclaves of Kensington for an evening of Cheltenham chat with a panel of bona fide experts at the London Racing Club's annual Cheltenham Festival Preview night.
The panel was comprised of Racing TV's 'Road to Cheltenham' voice, Lydia Hislop (LH); stats, trends and form judge, Matt Tombs (MT); BetVictor rep and co-host of Sky Sports Racing's Friday night show, Sam Boswell (SB); with LRC President and Racing Post chief correspondent Lee Mottershead (LM) doing the steering.
Below is my impression of their thoughts, hopefully faithfully reproduced.
[NB Since the evening a few non-runners have emerged - note those as you scan through...]
Tuesday
Supreme
LH – Strong Supreme. It might be that Willie Mullins horses step forward notably here?
Will be strongly run race. Mighty Park has a bit to prove.
Talk The Talk jumped better at DRF but quicker ground may put hurdling under pressure – jumping improving, made up ground off slow pace impressively.
MT – Old Park Star most likely winner but his price is tight enough.
Think TTT should run in Turners.
Against El Cairos.
Sober Glory interesting but might need to lead. Leader d’Allier is a Townend connection. He could be value.
So too Idaho Sun, who beat Mydaddypaddy on merit in Formby. Strongly run race should suit, each-way price.
SB – OPS will be taken on by bookmakers on the day. Idaho Sun is the wise guy horse – each-way angle into the race.
Arkle
SB – Kopek des Bordes worst result of the week right now, don’t really get the weakness of Lulamba.
MT – Once raced horses can win the Arkle. 2/8 this century and two others were no-hopers. Irish Arkle may have left a mark on Kargese / Romeo Coolio.
LH – Very deep Arkle. Lulamba very good but vulnerable. Which are likely to be QMCC contenders next year? KdB, maybe Kargese. But Lulamba / Romeo Coolio look more like King George types. Prefer KdB.
LM – If there was still a 2m4f G1, Lulamba / Romeo Coolio would be in there. So the race changes seem to be working.
Champion Hurdle
LH – Lossiemouth might go this way and could wear cheekpieces if she does (acc. to Rich Ricci). Brighterdaysahead & Lossiemouth might have had hard races at DRF (93% finishing speed). Golden Ace looks sure to run her race.
SB – The New Lion won’t be favourite on the day if Lossie runs. Not sure about his jumping at championship speed. Poniros might be the angle.
MT – Not sure Lossie will run. Don’t think she looks happy in fast run 2m. Want to take on TNL, unknown quantity. Opposable at the price. Backed BDA but cooled a bit, hard race LTO. Might have a stab at Alexei at big price.
Tuesday Handicaps
LH – "Iroko wins the Ultima". Think he’s got a very strong chance.
SB – Western Junior playable for the Fred Winter if landing there.
Wednesday
Queen Mother Champion Chase
LH – Big prices: Libberty Hunter and Only By Night if they go this way. Non-runner no bet (NRNB).
MT – Jonbon probably not running in QMCC. Cannot have L'eau du Sed or Il Etait Temps. Freshness angle totally overplayed with the former. In the 'without Majborough' market, Quilixios goes well fresh.
SB – Majborough might be a be tricky watch at odds-on. Have a look at the 'without' market at the big prices.
Turners
MT – Mighty Park should maybe come here because easier to win Turners off one run. Didn’t hit the line that hard on his debut. This race is perfect for Talk The Talk; if not TTT, King Rasko Grey and/or Skylight Hustle. Mullins first string often wins, but his other runners have never won this race.
LH– Mighty Park never been under pressure at a hurdle, so this might be the race for him. Quite keen on No Drama This End and prefer Skylight Hustel over Ballyfad. But no strong view.
SB – Feel like No Drama This End might drift on the day, seems to be a weakness around Paul Nicholls' horses these days. Doctor Steinberg: traders thought he’d come here rather than Albert Bartlett.
Brown Advisory
SB – Final Demand looks short against The Big Westerner. Wendigo might be nap of the meeting. Tactically made for this race, think he’s a cracking horse.
LH – Not attracted by Final Demand. Can’t have Romeo Coolio at 3m1f. This race is now ½f further and over one more fence. Koktail Divin won’t stay. Like The Big Westerner ("really good chance") and Wendigo from last year’s Albert Bartlett.
MT – Not Final Demand. WPM not happy with him all season apparently. Don’t like headgear / Kaid d’Authie. Western Fold could run well on decent ground but he’s vulnerable to an improver. Oscar’s Brother a possible, but agree that The Big Westerner & Wendigo look value.
Cross Country
MT – Favori de Champdou looks good, won Trials Day race and goes on any ground. Stumptown might still have his hard Velka Pardubicka run in his legs. Favori de Champdou looks the most likely winner of a handicap all week.
Other races
LH – Grand Annual– Henry de Bromhead (HdB) Inthepocket and possibly Downmexicoway. Jazzy Matty could defend his crown though repeat winners are rare. Libberty Hunter also on the radar.
SB – Champion Bumper – Bass Huntermight run well, and maybe Wilde's Legacy.
Thursday
Mares' Hurdle
SB – Lossiemouth will be very short if she comes here. Wodhooh short if Lossie goes Champion Hurdle.
LH – Jade de Grugy is the bet NRNB. Only runs here if Lossie goes CH. Comparable form to Wodhooh. Lossie was a bit flat in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time.
MT – Back Jade de Grugy NRNB here andfor the Mares' Chase. Gordon Elliott apparently makes Wodhooh his nap of the meeting.
Stayers’ Hurdle
LH – Fascinating race. Teahupoo too short but no worries re ground. Honesty Policy progressive but long walk form not great; Kabral du Mathan may have too much pace for 3m. Bob Olinger still has a chance even aged 11: Cheltenham and drying ground will suit. Coming round to Ma Shantou. Cannot have Ballyburn for anything: he just seems out of love with the game.
MT – Largely agree with LH. Want to take on the old guard with three young guns. Not keen on Kabral du Mathan. Honesty Policy has achieved a lot in a short time – has star potential but missed his prep race (Boyne Hurdle). Also warming to Ma Shantou, who’s still a touch of value for the Paisley Park yard of Emma Lavelle.
SB – Been too dismissive of Ma Shantou who looks playable e/w. Bob O will be thereabouts again.
Ryanair
LH – Think Fact To File runs here and Gaelic Warrior goes Gold Cup. Really impressed with FtF in the Irish Gold Cup. Whichever of FtF/GW turns up here probably wins. Banbridge has a chance but not of the calibre of FtF/GW.
MT – Banbridge clear pick behind FtF/GW. Banbridge could be e/w against the top of the market.
Other races
SB – Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle – Old School Outlaw negative vibes but Gordon Elliott adamant she's fine. Bambino Fever could end up a bit of a punter banker for Thursday. La Conquiere interesting e/w at a big price.
LH – Charme de Faust probably coming here. Don’t see the argument for Bambino Fever to beat Old School Outlaw after their run last time. Good race, other players in here. OSO if trainer is happy with her.
Jack Richards
LH - Meetmebythesea “best bet of the meeting”. Trainer Ben Pauling didn’t deny he has a great chance.
MT – Regent’s Stroll if Harry Cobden rides. Almost always a top of the market race where a G1 horse emerges. Look for the class horse in the field.
LH – Kim Muir - Waterford Whispers / Uhavemeinstitches
Pertemps- Supremely West and Gowel Road may be a value bet on the day.
Friday
Gold Cup
MT – Strongly feel Inothewayurthinkin will not win. Don’t fancy Galopin Des Champs either. Gaelic Warrior might be too keen to get home. Don’t fancy Haiti Couleurs, hasn’t got form to think he can win at this level.
Grey Dawning not impossible off a quiet prep. Like Jango Baie and The Jukebox Man. Jango Baie looks like he will improve for step up in trip. Similarly TJM but trainer was targeting the King George this season.
LH – Complex race. McManus horses: cannot see Inotheway being good enough to defend his title. Spillane’s Tower may be aimed at Grand National. So could Fact To File run here?
GdC probably too old but could still be good enough to make the frame if wearing cheekpieces. GW has the talent but he’s a complicated ride. Haiti Couleurs is not good enough. Jango / TJM look the pair to focus on. Love how TJM managed to win King George in spite of the poorest jump of the principals at the last. Fastorslow not totally impossible to imagine him running a nice race at a big price.
SB – Jango Baie at Ascot this season was “a wow moment”. Envoi Allen might shorten.
Triumph
LH – No idea!
MT – Was Narciso Has an outstanding hurdler here? If so, can see why Proactif / Selma de Vary are at the top of the betting. But if not... the British horses are probably underrated. Minella Study looks some value based on his form.
SB – Backed Selma and happy to roll with that.
Albert Bartlett
SB – Kripticjim has a chance at 20/1.
LH – Klimt Madrik, chased home No Drama This End in the Challow, and King's Bucks for HdB, both have chances.
MT – Take on the top of market. Horses 5/1 or shorter 0/20 in recent years.
Two longshots: Moneygarrow looks like he wants this trip. Hipop de Loire wants decent ground. Ubetuba – Olly Murphy, ridden by Ben Sutton. Would be interesting if Sean Bowen gets the ride.
County Hurdle
MT – Karbau has good chance.
LH - Strong view from Ruby that Karbau is the one.
SB – Declan Rix made a strong case for Hello Neighbour – this is his only entry.
Hunter Chase
MT - Willitgoahead will benefit from stronger stamina test. Decent chance at about 14/1.
Mares' Chase
LH – Like Spindleberry but don’t love her prep. Dinoblue will need to improve and looks poor value. Really like Diva Luna. Ben Pauling very positive about her.
Martin Pipe
SB – Jump Allen prepped in a charity race so look for his entries.
Panel Lucky 15
SB – La Conquiere – Dawn Run, Thursday LM – Munsif – Fred Winter, Tuesday LH – Meetmebythesea – Jack Richards, Wednesday MT – Idaho Sun – Supreme, Tuesday
Good luck!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/LRC_Chelto_2026.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2026-03-06 12:39:322026-03-06 12:47:03LRC Cheltenham Preview Night 2026
With the 2025 Cheltenham Festival now fading out of sight in the rear view mirror, and with Aintree and, gasp, the flat season emerging on the horizon, now is a perfect moment to have a quick think about the 2026 Cheltenham ante post markets.
There's obviously any amount of unpredictability to be visited on the scene in the ensuing 360-odd days but that's accounted for at least to some degree in the prices, all of which affords a small swing at a big payoff. I won't be tying up much capital in this venture, but it's a bit of fun and could give us plenty of highs and lows as the narrative plays out through Aintree, Punchestown and then the Autumn, Winter and Spring of 2025/6.
First things first: I'm not interested in the novice hurdle races. None of the last three Supreme winners had any degree of public profile a year prior to their successes, and the hokey cokey between Baring Bingham and Albert Bartlett is a targets guessing game nobody can win. The novice chases offer slightly more hope but even there we've the challenge of knowing which are natural hedge hoppers and which will stay over hurdles.
Best then to focus on the open championship events: the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and Gold Cup. Here's goes (next to) nothing...
Champion Hurdle 2026
This looks likely to be a very open division next season. Constitution Hill has not come back to his old form, though he has kept on winning - barring that tumble last week. He'll only be nine next year and has few miles on the clock for various reasons; but he's been famously tough to get right and is readily opposed in the context of a project like this.
State Man is the same age as Connie and would have been an unambiguous winner this year but for that last flight brain fart from Townend (just my opinion). That performance was a surprise in one way but not in another. After all, he was the reigning champ in spite of a middling season; and, once Constitution Hill had exited he had only Brighterdaysahead to beat on the form book. Her position in the market owed everything to trainer Gordon Elliott's high regard and to a single thirty length win that was very, very hard to interpret literally. She'll surely go to the Mares' Hurdle, or chasing, next season.
Golden Ace was the beneficiary of the champ's late departure. I loved the story, but I don't think for a second she'll be good enough to defend her crown. So we're looking for a new champion, on my reading anyway.
The top four in the current ante post lists are Con Hill, The New Lion, Lossiemouth and Kopek Des Bordes. Let's first deal with Lossiemouth. To my eye, she wants at least two and a half miles and if connections are seeking a championship she should be going up, not down, in trip. We'll get to that in due course. She was outpaced at Kempton behind Constitution Hill, and she fluffed her lines for no credible reason when going hoof to hoof with State Man. At a tempo that suited far better, in the 2m4f Mares' Hurdle, she waltzed away from a smart mare in Jade De Grugy without in any way suggesting her stamina bottom had been reached.
The New Lion has to be in the argument after what was an impressive win in the Turners (Baring Bingham). That's not been as good a trial for the Champion Hurdle as some have made out, the only recent winner to double up in the Champion in recent times being Faugheen in 2014/15. Another novice, Kopek Des Bordes, is as short as 4/1 and as long as 10/1 to win next year's Champion Hurdle, perhaps summing up the challenges of identifying race plans. The aforementioned C Hill did the Supreme/Champion Hurdle double in 2022/23 and this lad looks highly promising... if he stays hurdling.
I'm not at all convinced by Triumph winner Poniros at this stage, though he may yet develop into a five-year-old Champion Hurdler; but one Festival winner that is worth a second look in this market is Kargese. Her form has been under-rated - she's a dual Grade 1 scorer and hasn't been out of the first two in ten runs - in spite of a tendency to over-race. She easily won the County Hurdle off a mark of 141, the exact same County mark from which State Man prefaced his Champion Hurdle score a year later. True, he had more of a 'dark horse' profile but Kargese's form is really, really good (I noted in my County Hurdle preview how I felt last year's juveniles generally, and her in particular, had perhaps been underrated).
She'll have to improve a stone and more from an official mark of around 145 and she might be kept to mares' only races and aimed at the Mares' Hurdle. In her case, as one who tends to pull quite a bit, a shorter faster test might be just the ticket. She'd get the 7lb mares' allowance if running in the Champion Hurdle and would be bidding to emulate Golden Ace, Honeysuckle, Epatante and Annie Power who between them won five of the last ten Champion Hurdles. Importantly, she's a price - 33/1 - for a throwaway dart.
Suggestions: Many of these have some sort of chance if lining up a year from now. But, in a number of cases - notably Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead, Lossiemouth, and perhaps Kopek Des Bordes - they are either fragile or have other potential routes. State Man will be a year older and the race fell in his lap this year, before he declined the opportunity. Poniros might be more credible if winning at Punchestown but I'm not quite subscribing to him yet; and Golden Ace was a glorious advertisement for buying a lottery ticket, but should be lottery odds to do it again.
That leaves me with The New Lion and, more tentatively, Kargese.
Back The New Lion at 7/1 win only. For tiny stakes, try Kargese at 33/1 win only.
Queen Mother Champion Chase 2026
The Champion Chase is a favourite's graveyard, seven odds-on shots getting turned over in the past decade. And yet the game remains to try to get a horse to the race at a shorter - ideally, much shorter - price than was taken.
An obvious starting point is this year's winner, Marine Nationale, who was winning the argument with Quilixios when that one came down at the last, eventually scoring by a slightly misleading 18 lengths. Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort and he'll be following the precedent of both Altior and Energumene in trying double up aged nine next season. If he gets to the gig, he'll have leading claims.
Jonbon would have been much closer if he'd not rearranged the furniture in the back straight. But would he have beaten the winner? Possibly, but not definitely. In any case, he'll be ten next year and that list of excuses for getting beaten at Cheltenham is growing.
The absent and much-missed Sir Gino is 7/2 favourite in ante post lists. Given that, as far as I'm aware, he only came out of an equine hospital on Monday, he wouldn't be a huge pile shorter than 7/2 to race again, let alone win a Festival Grade 1. I really, really hope he does get back, and that he retains his ability; but his quote in this market is ludicrous. He's half the price of the demonstrably alive and kicking winner from last week!
Back in the real world, there's a strong argument to be made that Majborough would have won the Arkle but for bungling two out - you've got to jump 'em! - and that, therefore, 8/1 about his Champion Chase chance is a sliver of value. Sizing Europe did the Arkle/Queen Mother double in 2010/11 and, since then, so too have Sprinter Sacre and Altior. Of course, Maj would not be reprising those multi-year heroics because he didn't complete the first part of the job; but the Arkle remains a rock solid Champion Chase trial.
Gaelic Warrior has a big squiggle against him though it surprised me to discover he's still only seven, so will be eight next year. Age won't stop him, then, but he's not an ante post conveyance by any measure of the phrase. If Fact To File doesn't go to the Gold Cup - presumably after winning the King George - then the game's up: a fit FTF is unlikely to go shorter than a repeat Ryanair tilt, so I can't have him on my mind for the two mile championship.
Ballyburn is Pirandello's idea of a character in search of an author. I'm sure he knows the part he was born to play, but seemingly none charged with his care do. That's grossly unfair, of course, and I merely mean that there's a lack of clarity around where best to crystalise Ballyburn's undeniable ability. I feel it might be over hurdles and over further. But, like those closer to the decision making than me, I don't really know (though I'm pretty sure it's not two miles and fences).
Il Est Francais is a big no here, even though they might try. He's very in and out, and a repeat attempt at a King George - which so nearly paid off - ought to be on the cards. That would be a weird warm up for a Champion Chase.
Although he's not quite for me, Solness has been somewhat discarded in this market. He won two Grade 1's in the run up to Cheltenham and, with a more measured campaign next season, could definitely emerge as a contender. I get the impression his rise this term took connections somewhat by surprise leaving him possibly a tad over-cooked when Cheltenham came around. He'll only be eight next March and he should not be 40/1.
At the other end of the pace spectrum is Jango Baie. He got what for me was the ride of the meeting from Nico de Boinville in winning the Arkle. As a strong stayer who probably wants 2m4f, the plan at the outset was to lead and set a searching gallop. But when a couple of others wanted to do that, Nico reined his lad in and let them have at it in front of him. He hunted around off the pace until after the second last and then came with one withering run to mow down the flagging pugilists up top. I'm by no means his biggest fan, but this was a deliberate and masterful piece of steering from NdB.
Anyway, the point is that the Champ Chase can be run in similar fashion and that would allow a reprisal of this performance for Jango Baie were he to be invited here rather than the more obvious Ryanair. He would actually be bidding for the Arkle/Champion Chase double!
Suggestions: Sir Gino may rise to the top of this tree but he has much further to climb than most in order to achieve that. Apart from wagering, I seriously hope he does. I thought he might have won the Champion Hurdle this year but, as we know, connections opted for a different path. He makes a market that is 7/1 bar him in a race which rarely gets more than eight or nine runners. If you can get one to the start line, then, you have half (or, more correctly, a third of) a chance of hitting the frame.
This is pretty simple for me in terms of long range ante post. Marine Nationale must be on the ticket, and so must Majborough. Tiny tickles at huge prices on Solness and Jango Baie are not without merit.
Back Marine Nationale at 7/1 win only. Back Majborough at 8/1 win only.
Maybe limp in with either or both of 33/1 Jango Baie and/or 40/1 Solness.
Stayers' Hurdle 2026
I've put 6/1 Teahupoo (soft ground), 12/1 Ballyburn (in case he reverts to hurdles) and 20/1 Lossiemouth (this is the race for her in 2026, I just need to persuade Willie!) in some very speculative trebles but couldn't sensibly recommend you do likewise. All of the caveats very much emptored.
Gold Cup 2026
Back on a punting footing which could be described as at least relatively terra firma next to the Stayers' Hurdle market, the 2026 Gold Cup is unlikely to suddenly deliver a swathe of new candidates for primacy.
Inothewayurthinkin was a clear and unambiguous winner last week, and even if the wonderful Galopin Des Champs was a touch under par (which I certainly feel he was), the young buck holds all the cards going into next season. Galopin will be eligible for veterans' races from January 2026, as will third placed Gentlemansgame, fifth placed The Real Whacker and seventh placed Banbridge. Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor already have their bus passes, as it were.
Monty's Star will be nine and could not be fully discounted given a very wet Festival Friday, but his form is not as good as Inothewayurthinkin and he doesn't have the upside potential either. Looking at the Gold Cup winner's form profile this season, there's a case to be made for him drifting in price between now and next March - he was beaten by diminishing margins in each of his three pre-Cheltenham races this term - and that tempers ante post enthusiasm a little at this stage. On the other hand, were those defeats with a workable Grand National mark in mind?
Also in the green and gold is the Ryanair winner, Fact To File. Last year's Broadway (RSA as was) Novices' Chase winner at three miles was pointed at the shorter G1 last week, and fair bolted up in that assignment. Indeed, it was probably - or at least arguably - the performance of the meeting. I'm not totally convinced he'll last an extra six furlongs in the Gold Cup, but there cannot be another race to entertain him in at this stage.
Galopin is highly unlikely to be able to get a third Gold Cup aged ten and 8/1 is a sucker price, I'm afraid. Fastorslow has tended to be slow when overmatched; Grey Dawning was pulled up in the King George and ducked Cheltenham for pot hunting at Kelso - that doesn't put him in the Gold Cup picture; Majborough would be very doubtful to go this far aged six; and the rest are going to need to find a stone from somewhere which, while not impossible - I've suggested Kargese can maybe do that in the Tuesday feature - feels unlikely in their, typically more exposed, cases.
Suggestions: Few things in life are as simple as first meets the eye, so there's an above average chance I'm not giving this enough consideration. With that said, it looks an open and shut case for the two green and gold Festival winners in open Grade 1 chases last week. Yes, they're short (about 9/4 dutched), but if they stay healthy (a reasonably sized 'if', granted) they are head and shoulders above what we know of the others, the venerable veteran dual champ aside.
Back Fact To File at 6/1 win only.
Hold fire on Inothewayurthinkin at 5/1 as he could drift after a defeat early next season. That would be the time to bet him, at nearer 10/1. [Galopin went out to 6/1 after getting beaten in the John Durkan first time up last season]
Summary
It's all a bit of fun this far out - and indeed much closer to the day - so if you feel like following me in, keep it small and manageable is my advice. If one of them wins, it'll pretty much pay for the rest losing. And, because I love a bit of mugginess, I've permed a few of them in wildly ambitious trebles: well, faint heart never won fair maiden and all that.
At the very least, a bet like this gives us something to look forward to, and to shout about, in the year-long buildup to the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. That in itself is worth a small cheer!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2.79393753-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-18 17:33:112025-03-18 17:33:11Taking a Flyer on the 2026 Cheltenham Festival
And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.
Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...
1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Triumph Hurdle changed complexion hugely with the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005. The average field size in the previous decade was 26. In the Fred Winter era that average has shrunk to 16, and just 13 in the last decade. All races evolve so we need to be careful when using trends that include renewals from a long time ago - for the Triumph it is often best to calculate trends starting in 2005. Incredibly, this year there are 18 slated to face the starter.
Possibly the biggest under-bet factor in juvenile hurdles more generally is that, being so young, these horses often develop more during the season than older novices – and they develop at different times. It’s not uncommon for juveniles to go backwards as they develop physically. With so many more of the juveniles now being jumps-bred rather than having had a long career on the flat nowadays I think that’s a factor that’s likely to keep increasing in importance.
It is therefore a division to be particularly open-minded about whether form will be repeated. In the Triumph that question is especially impacted by the quality of the trials. Britain has four Grade 2 and five Listed trials for the Triumph. These races often lack depth: this century all nine Triumph winners that contested a British Grade 2, won that Grade 2.
In Ireland it’s a different story. The programme is designed to funnel the best horses together and typically a lot run in the Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival. Since it became a Grade 1 in 2010, it’s produced nine Triumph winners but only three were doing the double. Put another way, backing Grade 1 Spring winners in the Triumph would have lost you 30% of your betting bank, whereas backing the losers would have made you a 106% profit.
The Spring is run in early February and, given the ‘development factor’ I outlined above, another trend is to focus on recent Graded form more widely. You might think that Graded form (including Grade 1 winning form) in the novice and juvenile Grade 1s at the Festival would be so obvious as to be over-bet. But that’s often not the case – for example, if since 2005 in the Triumph you’d backed every unbeaten hurdler that had won a Graded hurdle, you’d have made a +23 (79% ROI) profit.
However, if you restricted that to unbeaten hurdlers who had won a Graded hurdle since the turn of the year the record improves to +28 (117% ROI) and would have identified the same eight winners.
East India Dock won the Grade 2 Finesse in great style in January. He likes a sound surface, is proven at the track and on form he arguably has enough in hand to suggest he should be odds-on here.
Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners
Triumph Hurdle Pace Map
A big field and should be lots of pace on. East India Dock tends to lead in his races but I don't think he needs to. Should track and get first run. Obviously, Willie has plenty of tactical options with his ELEVEN runners!
Triumph Hurdle Selection
East India Dock should be shorter on form, some of the horses around him owe their price more to reputation than track performances.
Suggestion: Back East India Dock to win at 2/1 or bigger.
Matt's Tix Pix: East India Dock on A, a couple of alternates on B
The formerly indecipherable County Hurdle has been rendered a coin flip between Messrs Mullins, W., and Skelton, D. in recent times. Indeed, in a race typically with 20+ runners, it's faintly bonkers that they've gobbled up nine of the most recent ten renewals. Willie also won it in 2010 and 2011 for good measure.
True, they tend to come mob-handed, but their winners have been 12/1, 33/1, 11/4, 11/2, 12/1, 33/1, 20/1, 8/1 and 25/1.
Five- and six-year-olds - in other words, seriously unexposed horses - have generally been the winning ticket, though they've also saddled three eight-year-old winners between them, at odds of 33/1, 12/1 and 20/1. So if not a young horse then demand a price, maybe.
Two of those older winners were very high class, and rated accordingly (146 and 158) while the younger horses - indeed all other winners bar Belfast Banter (129) since 2009 - were rated 134 to 141; and if you ignore subsequent Champion Hurdle winner State Man (extremely unlucky not to double up on Tuesday), that band narrows to 134-139. A feature of this race is that all winners since 2009 were patiently ridden, either in midfield or held up.
Of the Mullins gang this time, Daddy Long Legs is rated too high for a young horse, and Absurde has shown his hand too much, surely. But the other pair, Ethical Diamond and Kargese, are of clear interest. The former was five lengths behind the latter in last year's Spring Juvenile at DRF before completely failing to fire on heavy at Cheltenham next time. This season, after a promising effort on the flat at Royal Ascot, he ran down the field in a handicap at Christmas before bolting up in a very ordinary maiden hurdle. None of the 16 that followed him home there and ran since has won, from 19 collective attempts; and Ethical Diamond has been raised 12lb from his pre-race Irish mark (the Irish handicapper raised him only 6lb). He'll probably appreciate better ground but looks fairly harshly weighted all things considered, even if he is open to improvement.
Kargese is probably Willie's most obvious chance. She's never been out of the first two in nine career starts, four of them Grade 1's, two of them winning Grade 1's. Her form when within a length of Take No Chances has been well advertised by that one running third in the Mares' Hurdle, and it is possible the handicapper has underrated the ability of last year's juveniles. She has 141, the same mark as State Man won from and, while she is unlikely to be of his calibre, she may be a fair bit better than she's currently rated. She's versatile in terms of run style and will surely be waited with and, though it's a tough ask for a mare, Spirit Leader won back in 2003 from just a smallish number to have tried.
And what about Team Dan? Well it's only Valgrand for him, one shot wonder this year. This lad was impressive when racking up a hat-trick in early season, none more so than in a Grade 2 on good ground here. He was put in his place by Potters Charm when stepped up in trip, again around here, next time and has since got a five pound rebate from the handicapper for two non-descript efforts. He arrives here as a six-year-old novice on a perch of 134 and has been rested 77 days since, three of Skelton's four wins being rested 80, 97 and 124 days. Too easy? Maybe, maybe not.
With such a duopoly in the past decade, it's difficult to try to make a case for another though there are obviously plenty of respected operators in what is a smaller than usual field - just 16 declared. Principle among those shrewdies could be Joseph O'Brien who bids to win at back to back Festivals with Lark In The Morning, the 2024 Fred Winter champ. He's run acceptably twice since then, once for the UK handicapper, but still gets 2lb more weight than he had in that Haydock sighter. It's possible his best form is on softer turf than it's likely to be, but there's little doubt he'll have been optimally prepared.
County Hurdle Recent Winners
County Hurdle Pace Map
A smaller field this year and no obvious front runner. I doubt it'll be a tactical affair but it's difficult to call who'll make the pace.
County Hurdle Selection
I'm keeping this simple. I think Kargese is plenty short enough for all that I love her chance (and backed her ante post at bigger), so I'll suggest Valgrand to 'return to form'. Ethical Diamond is punitively handicapped but may still make the frame.
This race has only been run for four years so there are no long term past trends to dig into. Instead, I have looked at the last ten years of mares only Class 1 chases between 2m3f and 2m6f. There have been 46 such races of which 35 have been won by either the favourite or the second favourite. This suggests that this type of race tends not to have much strength in depth, and the four winners of this particular Festival race have all been 3/1 or shorter.
Another key trend to note in these races is that last time out (LTO) winners outperform those horses who didn’t win last time. LTO winners have won 25 races from 106 (23.6%) compared with 21 from 177 (11.9%) for those that didn’t win last time. There is a big differential between the placed results, too, with LTO winners placing 45% of the time, while LTO non-winners are down at 25%.
Horses that have previously won a Graded or Listed event hit a 24% strike rate compared with a 12% strike rate for those that have not.
Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have scored more than twice as often as those that were third or higher in the market. Not only that they have been better value with an A/E index of 0.96 compared to 0.81.
This year nine runners go to post with four rated over 150 and it will be a massive surprise if something rated lower wins this. Let’s look at the four main protagonists.
Willie Mullins has had two wins and two seconds in this race, and he runs two here which are first and second in the betting. Firstly, he has Dinoblue, runner up in the race last year. In that 2024 renewal jockey Mark Walsh may have been taken by surprise when the winner, Limerick Lace, kicked turning in and that could have cost her the race. Walsh will be keen not to allow any horse too much rope turning in this time around. A positive is that she ticks all the boxes from the trends shared above. A concern is that she generally races over 2 miles or 2 miles 1 furlong and, despite going close last year, this trip might be right on her limit stamina wise. She is likely to go off a short-priced favourite.
The Mullins second string is Allegorie De Vassy. She was fourth in this last year, second in 2023 and those were her only two runs at the track. Despite those two decent efforts she tends to jump out to her right, and I think that has cost her in the past here. She does arrive at Cheltenham in good form having finished second at Naas last time getting to within a quarter of a length of Dinoblue. That was over a shorter two-mile trip.
Limerick Lace, from the Gavin Cromwell stable, comes here as defending champion, but she has been beaten a total of 101 lengths in her last two starts. If it rains, her chances improve considerably but with the likely going good to soft I am happy to take her on at her current price.
Cromwell also runs Brides Hill. She has been turned over when odds on favourite in her last two runs which tempers enthusiasm a little. However, according to the trainer this has always been her target, and she should prefer the ground more than her stablemate. Her price reflects her recent form, but at her best she would be bang there
Mares' Chase Recent Winners
*New race in 2021
Mares' Chase Pace Map
Willie again holds the cards with both of his pair likely to be prominent in what should be an even paced tempo.
Mares' Chase Selection
Dinoblue is the most likely winner but with her trading around Evens in a nine-runner field is tight. For me this looks a race to tackle each way with Brides Hill.
3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Ah, the Spuds Race. There's a knack to punting this race, which is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season. With only one winner returned a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013, we're going to be taking a swing. Naturally, such an approach can be feast or famine, so the faint-hearted might favour a different tack. Me? At this stage (Wednesday after racing), I'm in a massive hole on the week and don't plan to smash my way free, so it's the only course of action. OK, to the profile.
We're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. Stellar Story last year was an archetypal winner so let's look at his form profile going into that race and see if we can't reverse engineer it:
The form image shows most recent (Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham) at the top, oldest at the bottom. Starting at the bottom, we can see he was a good bumper horse - good enough to win two of his three in that sphere. We can also see he'd got plenty of experience, adding four hurdle starts prior to the Festival to that trio of NH Flat spins. Next, note how he won a big field maiden hurdle before running well in defeat in small field Graded races, including at Grade 1 level at the Dublin Racing Festival. Before any of those Rules runs, he'd won an Irish point to point.
Stellar Story was available at 33/1 when I backed him a couple of weeks before his Spuds win, and he was sent off at the same price on the day. He was the 11th choice of the betting public!
Here's a horse running in the race this year:
He, too, won an Irish point prior to his Rules debut; and he also won two bumpers, including the Cheltenham Bumper when held up in a field of 19. Sent hurdling this term, he won in a field of 25 - count 'em! - on first start before being outpaced in consecutive Grade 1's. The horse in question is Jasmin De Vaux, of course, and he's now a little shorter than ideal. I backed him at 33/1 (bully for me, I know) but I'm not going to tip him here at 8/1 for all that he fits the bill.
Another that I like is Wingmen, second when Jasmin was fourth last time, in the Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1 at DRF. He won a bumper, then a maiden hurdle - beating Turners fourth Forty Coats - before being outpaced over 2m1f here. In two starts since that December sighter, he's finished third in the Lawlor's Of Naas and second as mentioned. He handles quick ground and has a very good profile for this.
Front runners have a good recent record in the race, as do prominent types, so that's a further positive to his chance; and his trainer, Gordon Elliott, won the race with the aforementioned identikit winner, Stellar Story.
And there's one more from the Leopardstown G1 worthy of a mention, I think. Sounds Victorius was fourth in the Champion Bumper last year, never nearer than at the finish. Second in a small field novice on hurdling debut, he then won a 12-runner maiden, leading then getting headed before outstaying a horse that looked very likely to win. Stepped straight up to Grade 1 level, he was again outpaced before plugging on. I'm not sure he's good enough for this - maybe he wants four miles rather than three - but he sort of fits the profile.
Fishery Lane was a six length fifth in last year's Champion Bumper and has looked fairly slow in his hurdle races to date. He's a bit of a flier on the basis that he's not run in Graded company over timber but that good effort at the Festival last year gives me some hope he can be competitive. He handles quicker ground and is surely in need of this extra road to slow the others down.
John McConnell went close in this in 2021 with Streets Of Doyen, and Intense Approach has a similar feel to that one: campaigned through the previous summer, a winning Cheltenham sighter at the October meeting before a midwinter break and one run prior to the Festival. Both had bundles of good ground form and were very experienced.
Of the Brits, Wendigo's Challow second to The New Lion could not have been better advertised, that one winning the Turners on Wednesday. The Challow has seen eight runs from its field since, five of them ending in victory; Wendigo won before and since that effort and could go well though I'm not convinced about his battling qualities (I could definitely be wrong on that).
There are a few classier types in the field, not least Jet Blue, Ballyhassen Paddy and the mare The Big Westerner; but there always are, and they usually get beat by the more streetwise contenders. At least that's the way to bet.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Just loads and loads of pace here. It'll be attritional I expect and you want one that can handle that sort of cauldron.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection
Very tricky and taking two (or three) win only pokes in this big field feels like a good idea. Jasmin De Vaux and Wingmen don't really fit the long price bill though both have their chance; I couldn't put you off a win bet on either. But at daft prices and for small money, I'll risk the trio of Fishery Lane, Sounds Victorius and Intense Approach win only.
Suggestion: Avoid the short-priced classy horses and punt something at a price that might be better suited to this kind of bare knuckle cage fight. Each of 25/1 Fishery Lane, 25/1 Sounds Victorius and 16/1 Intense Approach has a bit of a squeak if things fall kindly.
Matt's Tix Pix: I'll be putting some big prices on A and hoping to get a result.
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is almost impossible to oppose in the Gold Cup as he attempts to emulate Arkle and Best Mate in winning three Gold Cups in a row in the post-war era. Having won his third Irish Gold Cup last month, he has scared off stablemate Fact To File, the only horse who had looked a serious threat to his crown at Christmas when John Durkan form was reversed in the Savills Chase. Fact To File finished closer in the Irish Gold Cup but only because Townend plated rope-a-dope in front and turned the race into a sprint, impressing with how he quickened from the last to the line, while Fact To File was collared on the post for second by Grangeclare West.
Accidents can befall any horse, at home or on the racecourse, so there really is no such thing as a banker; but there is no strong reason to oppose the dual winner on what he’s shown this season, with his defeat at Punchestown in the John Durkan easy to forgive given he’s neither at his best over that trip or at that track, where his only defeats when completing over fences have come. Beaten by Fact To File there, he has shown the form to be misleading by slamming that talented rival twice at Leopardstown, brooking no argument as to which is the better horse.
With last year’s placed horses exiting stage left and Grey Dawning reportedly bypassing Cheltenham altogether, the Gold Cup looks the favourite’s to lose unless the ground dries back more than expected. In that scenario, Banbridge might be a danger to him having been confirmed for the race on the back of his King George win. I’ve liked Banbridge since watching him win the Martin Pipe in the company of Brendan Powell, who could not praise the horse highly enough, but while he proved his stamina for a sharp three miles of the King George, he still has the speed for two miles, and there are very few with that speed who can also stretch out the extra two and a half furlongs required up Cheltenham’s daunting hill.
I considered L’Homme Presse the horse most likely to follow Galopin des Champs home, but a minor setback has ruled him out. Corbett’s Cross showed at Ascot that he doesn’t jump well enough to win a race like this, and the supplemented Inothewayurthinkin is the better of the McManus hopes now that Fact To File has been rerouted.
In truth, Inothewayurthinkin is clearly not as good as Fact To File, having finished behind that rival in races won by Galopin des Champs on his last two starts. On the other hand, he’s also not capable of winning a Ryanair being a thorough stayer, and a Gold Cup weakened by withdrawals is a very realistic option for Gavin Cromwell’s 2024 Kim Muir winner. The Grand National is his main aim, but with questions over most of his rivals, he looks the one most likely to pick up the pieces in an attritional race.
Of course, a tactical affair will suit Banbridge better, but I suspect Paul Townend will be aware that Banbridge is the one who could spoil the party and will look to make this a test of stamina. That scenario is likely to see Banbridge look the main danger for much of the race, but Inothewayurthinkin will be staying on best after the last. While he’s unlikely to lay a glove on the favourite, he has every chance of out-slogging the classy Banbridge for second. At time of writing, seven of Gavin Cromwell’s 11 runners on the first two days have been placed or would have been placed but for a late fall, and his team is in better form than most at this meeting.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
There's a very good chance that Galopin Des Champs and Paul Townend keep it simple by bidding to make all. A few of his rivals need to try to get him out of his comfort zone so that's something to keep in mind, but the champ doesn't need to lead.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection
Suggestion: Try a Galopin des Champs/Inothewayurthinkin Exacta
4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)
Previewed by Paul Jones.
The news in the last few days surrounds Willitgoahead who has been bought and sent to Gordon Elliott who would have had no time to do anything with him so don’t let that have any effect on how you judge his chance. He is now more or less joint-fav with Angels Dawn having impressed with his jumping when winning at Thurles after racing in last early. I wouldn’t fancy those tactics being pulled off on the New Course so maybe he’ll sit handier early.
On the figures ANGELS DAWN is the one to beat as she receives a 7lb mares’ allowance here unlike when she won the Kim Muir two years ago (and would have been placed last year behind a Gold Cup hope but for a late fall). She also didn’t have that allowance when winning a point to point at Dromahane, beating Ryehill by 6l who has since run all over Itsontheline at Naas, and they are the other pair in the top four in the betting. Ryehill won that race despite a bad mistake three out and his jumping could let him down in this sterner test.
Angels Dawn is ten now, and up until last year the previous nine winners were aged ten or eleven. Sam Curling’s mare also finished a close-up third in last season’s Thyestes so competitive, big-field chases bring the very best out of her and I’m hoping that, after Sine Nomine last year, mares can bag back-to-back wins.
Runner-up for the last two seasons, Its On The Line is hard work but usually keeps pulling it out which is what made his Naas run, where he found little in the home straight, all the more disappointing. I think he needs to run himself into form/fitness as his very best efforts have been after Cheltenham but he is only reaching his prime now as he was just aged six and seven when runner-up for the last two runnings. Maybe Emmet Mullins had left more to work on at Naas than he is giving away (he had a hard race in that prep last year which may have taken an edge off him for Cheltenham?) but it was disconcerting to hear rumours that JP McManus, owner of Its On The Line, was trying to buy Willitgoahead: that may suggest a lack of confidence if the whispers are accurate.
Behind the Irish-trained top four in the market come four home hopes and the Brits have won three of the last four renewals. I can’t see Allmankind staying, and Music Drive has yet to run in a hunter chase (just one of those has won since 1993), so the other pair interest me more. Paul Nicholls has trained four Festival Hunter Chase winners so Shearer is respected, though I wonder if the Aintree Foxhunters’ might suit him better as he typically races over shorter trips and easier tracks.
So Fairly Famous appeals most of the home team. He beat the 2023 winner of this race, Premier Magic, by 4½l on Cheltenham’s Hunter Chase night back in early May (also won the same race by 15l the previous season) and has since won both his point to points this winter and clearly goes very well for Gina Andrews.
Rocky’s Howya was third two years ago but missed last season, which I know full well as was looking out for him as my horse for the 2024 version. He would have been closer but for meeting interference on the run-in behind Premier Magic and Its On The Line in 2023, so he also interests me now that he is back and won a point last time out.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map
The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection
Suggestion: Back 4/1 Angels Dawn to win, and/or consider 20/1 Fairly Famous and 18/1 Rocky's Howya each way.
Matt's Tix Pix: Angels Dawn and a few others on A, some bigger prices on B
A race that seemingly revolves around one horse this year, Kopek De Mee.
What we know about him; this will be his first start on British soil for Willie Mullins, having raced five times over hurdles in France for his previous yard and, as such, the handicapper hasn’t had a lot to go on, giving him his French mark of 136 (which he has to do, by the way).
It isn’t as if his French form means he’s thrown in here, though. Timeform, who can on occasions rave about these marks given to Willie’s from France, have him only fifth best, admittedly with a “p”, so progress is likely. Neither have we seen him for 310 days, and all his form so far has been on deep ground. We’ve seen good things beaten in this before; at 5-2 you can leave me out, thanks very much.
There’s one in here I’ve been keen on since his Warwick run at the start of February and those of you that have been lucky/unlucky enough to watch or listen to the podcasts I’ve been doing for a rival publication (sorry Matt) will know that No Ordinary Joe is the horse that caught my, and others', eyes that day.
No Ordinary Joe was seventh in the Martin Pipe last year when Nicky was having his week from hell, and this time around he’s been spared a hard campaign, racing just the three times this season but it was a much better effort at Warwick last time, despite not looking entirely fit.
He was close enough two out to throw down a challenge but Callum Pritchard looked after him a bit after the last, and despite only being beaten two lengths, and he looked like there was a bit left in the tank.
The handicapper left him alone for that, meaning a mark of 138 will be 2lb lower than last year, and although Pritchard has been claimed by Ben Pauling to ride No Questions Asked, Freddie Gingell, among the winners elsewhere this week, is a most able deputy.
Wodhooh is an in-form mare that’s unbeaten in six hurdles starts, and her defeat of Joyeuse and Take No Chances last time out is solid form, but the market has her well found. In some ways, I’d not be shocked if she went off favourite, given her form looks more solid than Kopek De Mee’s, but at the time of writing Gordon Elliott is not having the best of Festival weeks, with too many of his fading out of contention for comfort. That may change on Thursday or earlier on Friday but she only makes limited appeal.
At 33-1 I’ll also have a little bit on Electric Mason as the back-up selection. A good looker, he’s twice come up against The New Lion, beaten 4½ lengths on the first occasion and then nine lengths by him in the Challow. Needless to say, that form looks all the better after The New Lion’s win in the Turners earlier in the week, and a mark of 132 seems more than fair. The ground should suit and quotes of 25-1 and bigger are worth a fiver of your cash.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map
Another big field and some relatively inexperienced riders, so this ought to be quickly run from the start. It's been won by some really classy future chasers in the pase - see the list above - and it will be fascinating to see which Grade 1 horse(s) reveal themselves here.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Back No Ordinary Joe at 12/1 and/or Electric Mason at 33/1.
*
And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2025. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.
Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham, Matt Tombs and Paul Jones are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.
Be lucky.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/galopindeschamps_langerdan_cheltenhamMartinPipe2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-13 09:04:322025-03-13 09:32:21Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips
Day Three, Thursday, and it's a case of New Courses for Old as we 'change ends' for the second half. Fresh ground, then, probably nicely watered so no excuses - apart from the obvious (picking the wrong horse).
1.20 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Full disclosure: this race is not my favourite. It's not because I haven't had a degree of success in finding the winner during its short history (new race in 2016) nor that I don't see its place at the Festival. On the contrary, I've backed a couple of good winners, and fully recognise the importance of such races for the mares' programme - something that is far more relevant to the breeding industry than the glut of Graded races for geldings which blighted the winter until this season. Hats off to the BHA for sorting that. That was an unexpected ranty sidebar to kick things off...
No, the reason I've not yet warmed to the Dawn Run is that it's been a bit second division more often than not. Perhaps this will be the year that ignites my attraction to it - finding the winner will help no end in that regard, so let's crack on.
You'll note a couple of things from the list of winners below. Firstly, Willie won the first five renewals of the race; and secondly, neither he nor any other Irish trainer has won in the past three renewals. It's a small sample size but offes hope to the domestics.
Sixandahalf has been almost a default ante post favourite, her one hurdles spin resulting in a twelve length beating of the expensive point recruit Qualimita. The problem with that is Qualimita appears not to be very good: she's been beaten twice since most recently at odds on. Still, Sixandahalf was also a very good bumper winner and switched codes to run third in the ultra-valuable Irish Cesarewitch (worth £223,000 and change more to the winner than the Dawn Run - sheesh).
She's inexperienced over hurdles, with just that one run, and might want a little further than this marginally extended two miles.
Maughreen is another one of dem Willie talking horses. She too has had just one try over hurdles, and she's less experienced generally than Sixandahalf, having only raced once prior - winning a bumper easily. So she's two from two and unextended each time. While a couple of winners have emerged from that hurdle score, one of them was subsequently beaten 20 lengths in a handicap hurdle off a lowly 102; she was 15 lengths behind Maughreen so make of it what you will.
Aurora Vega, thought to be on the sick list, is declared. There have been a few on the preview circuit keen to know her form but she's won six of her nine starts and all three of her completed hurdles starts, including when making all in a Grade 3 Mares' Hurdle last time. She's likely to be close to the pace which, in a big field, might not be optimal but her experience and ability to 'get it done' are assets that many of her rivals cannot match.
Galileo Dame, a four-year-old, has been declared here rather than in the Triumph and that looks a smart call. Although she faces elder rivals there's nothing of the proven ability of East India Dock and perhaps nothing of the rumoured ability of Lulamba in this field. Moreover, she receives a chunky 10lb weight allowance from the older mares. Trained by Joseph O'Brien, no stranger to Festival success, she has more experience than most of her rivals having finished second in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at the DRF as well as in her debut hurdle race; additionally, she ran eight times on the flat.
As a flat filly, she won a Leopardstown maiden (10f, heavy) before a tilt at the Irish Oaks where she was unplaced. Sights lowered to Listed class, she bagged silver in her final two goes on the level, eventually rated high-90's. If there's a niggle it might be that she tends to find one too good but she looks to be a serious player in this.
What is certain is that other mares have better form in the book for all that this pair can improve, perhaps significantly, from their current demonstrated levels. Recent winners have had more experience, and that is an asset for Karoline Banbou, a multiple podium finisher in French Graded AQPS races before getting off the mark over timber at the deuxieme time of asking in Ireland. That form is again open to question but she's shown up well in big fields and is a litte more streetwise than those at the top of the market.
Best of the home team in their quest for an unbroken four-timer in the Dawn Run is Jubilee Alpha, trained by Paul Nicholls - remember him? This six-year-old mare was second in the G2 Nickel Coin Mares' Bumper at Aintree, a race always loaded with talent, last spring. She's advertised that form herself in winning a Listed race at Taunton and a valuable Class 2 conditions event at Windsor. Taunton was the launchpad for Golden Ace's success in this race last year and we all know how much Nicholls would love winning this. He's got a bit of a chance with this mare.
Ben Pauling has an interesting one in Diva Luna. She was the mare to beat Jubilee Alpha in the Nickel Coin, and has since run 212 over hurdles. While I'm confident she'll step forward for her defeat at Sandown last time (at odds of 2/9 - ouch), the fact that the 2's were at two miles while the win was over two and a half, allied to her penchant for pacemaking, leaves her vulnerable to a finisher at this trip. There is a fair bit of rival front end speed, on paper at least, so that's another niggle regarding her case. I suspect she'll be a different proposition entirely when stepped back up in trip.
Nicholls has a second card to play in the shape of Just A Rose, an expensive recruit after winning a maiden point, but one who kept the dream alive for owners including the Brooks' (remember Saint Calvados and co?) when bolting up by 26 lengths in a Taunton maiden in mid-January. That's obviously a far cry from this test, but if you're considering backing Maughreen or Sixandahalf, the former especially, you'd get a squarer price on Just A Rose off a mirror image of a form case.
We all know to respect anything Henry de Bromhead saddles at the Cheltenham Festival and, as such, Air Of Entitlement is worthy of at least a second glance. True, she's only won a run of the mill bumper and an equally unremarkable maiden hurdle, well enough beaten in a Punchestown Festival bumper in between, so it's a leap of faith based on connections required. I can't immediately see it and will reluctantly allow her to beat me.
If this was two and a half miles, I'd be quite interested in the chance of Hollygrove Cha Cha, a winning machine for Hot To Trot Jumping. But it's not. At two miles, she's vulnerable as she showed with her only career defeat in six races behind Jubilee Alpha. Before and since then she's run thrice over hurdles at around two and a half miles and won each time, including in the Grade 2 Jane Seymour at Sandown last time. She's a lovely mare and one to follow, but this will probably be too sharp for her unless they go very hard early (which, in such a big field, they might).
Plenty of other unexposed ones, including Willie's Venusienne. She's too inexperienced to interest me, however.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
With so many runners, this is bound to be run at a right good lick.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection
An open race - far more so than the ante post betting suggested - and one where I want to take on Maughreen and Sixandahalf. Both have their chance but so do many others. At the prices, then, I'm keen on Galileo Dame with her experience and hefty weight pull; and will try a small each way on Jubilee Alpha to see Paul Nicholls do a Keegan.
Suggestion: Back 5/1 Galileo Dame to win and/or 9/1 Jubilee Alpha each way.
Matt's Tix Pix: I'm taking a fair few here across A and B - could be the placepot dividend maker
2.00 Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase (Handicap, 2m 4f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
This race is back after a four year hiatus and returns as the 2005-10 version, run on the New Course as a 20lb limited handicap with no ratings ceiling.
In practice, the ratings ceiling (140 between 2011 and 2017, 145 between 2018 and 2020) didn’t make that much difference. In the six renewals with no ratings ceiling no horse ran off higher than 148. The last ten renewals had a weight spread of between 4lb and 10lb so whether it is nominally a limited or full handicap has had little impact. It looks like being a different renewal this year with Springwell Bay running off 154 and a bigger weight spread below him.
This has also been a race where smaller yards have fared well. Willie Mullins has never won any handicap chase at the Festival, and neither Gordon Elliott nor Dan Skelton has won this race. Nicky Henderson, Henry de Bromhead and Paul Nicholls have won it once each. Six of the 16 winners were giving their trainers a first Festival winner so don’t be put off if a horse you fancy comes from a smaller yard.
A bit like the Plate, this has been a race for intermediate trip specialists: 12 of the 16 winners, including nine of the last ten, had shown their best chase form (judged by Racing Post Ratings) at intermediate trips.
Perhaps the most important trend is how predictable a race it has been. Lots of punters saw a 20-runner handicap chase for novices (as mentioned, the maximum field has been increased to 22) and thought it would be a bit of a lottery. In fact it’s been the most predictable handicap of the meeting over conventional obstacles. 13 of the 16 winners have come from the first five in the SP market, ten of which came from the first three in the betting. Don’t be put off taking a single figure price despite the big field.
A bit like the Fred Winter this has a trial that has proved a really strong guide – the 2m4½f novice handicap chase on Trials Day at Cheltenham in late-January. Four of the last eight winners contested it finishing 7312. It seemed a strong renewal of that novice handicap this year, with Whistle Stop Tour looking a leading contender for the Ultima and Resplendent Grey having decent claims in the National Hunt Chase. Moon D'Orange won on Trials Day despite a howler at the last and, despite a 6lb rise, he looks a player here.
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Pace Map
Another big field, and likely plenty of pace on once more.
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Selection
Suggestion: Try Moon D'Orange at 14/1.
Matt's Tix Pix: Two or three A's and hope to be lucky
A quick plug before I start this race as in Gary Wiltshire’s new book Fifty Years In The Betting Jungle that I co-wrote and published by Weatherbys, one of his many tales relates to the Pertemps from way back in 1983 when it was then the Coral Golden Hurdle, and won by Forgive ‘n Forget hosed up with Barney Curley’s fingerprints all over it. Plug over. [Book available here - Ed.]
After the Leopardstown qualifier that featured six of the last nine winners was run, I went for lightning to strike twice in backing FEET OF A DANCER at 16/1 each-way (four places at the time). She finished third there as did another Paul Nolan-trained mare in Mrs Milner which won the Final having also placed in the same qualifier. They ran almost identical races in that they travelled strongly and took it up only to be run out of it on the run-in. My concern is the drying ground as she likes cut but the New Course will have been watered for Day 1 of the two days they race on it if necessary.
Henderson and McManus have turned to first-time cheekpieces for the favourite, Jeriko Du Reponet, who was a running-on third in his qualifier. I don’t know, I just think there’s ‘something of the night’ about him and his stamina has to be taken on trust.
Even though he has won a qualifier, which is usually a no-no for the Final given that only two of the last 29 winners have done so, I prefer the Leopardstown winner Win Some Lose Some of the McManus pair. JP has won the Final four times before and Padraig Roche’s charge looks firmly on the up.
That 'winners of qualifiers' negative stat should come under pressure as (a) more of them should turn up as the Pertemps is now a ‘win-and-you’re in’ race and (b) since two years ago only the first four can qualify from a qualifying race (reduced from six and having previously been eight) so no more fifth-and-sixth-placed finishers squeaking in. Actually, they didn’t have a good record in the Final anyway as it was horses that finished second, third and fourth in qualifiers that had been winning the vast majority of finals.
Until winners of qualifiers start winning the Final though, I will continue to look elsewhere so won’t be siding with Will The Wise (won the last qualifier at Naas in such gruelling ground they couldn’t finish the card so can he recover in time?), Catch Him Derry (wants it soft according to Dan Skelton) or Henri The Second (same reason). Other winners of qualifiers are Harbour Lake, Super Survivor, One Big Bang and J’Ai Froid.
Gordon Elliott has a fabulous record in the Final but both of his qualifiers, Patter Merchant and Lucky Lyreen, also ran in those atrocious conditions at Naas just 18 days ago.
Karl Des Tourelles was second in the Punchestown qualifier in November but only two five-year-olds have won since the race was first run in 1974.
D ART D ART’s second in the Carlisle qualifier catches the eye as he went from held up to leading at the last and may well have won but for edging left on the run-in; back in third was Gwennie May Boy who has franked the form since when comfortably winning the Rendlesham. I like a hold-up horse for the Pertemps and prior to that he came from the rear again to finish an eye-catching third of 23 at Navan over 2m6f having previously won over 2m4f so the gradual steps up in trip are also proving beneficial to him.
Trained by Tommy Cooper, no stranger to Festival success having won the Champion Bumper with Total Enjoyment, looking at the race fresh I’ll take an each-way chance at the general 11/1 to six places that D Art D Art can be his second Cheltenham winner some 21 years later.
Onto the Brits and the Hendo pair of Doddiethegreat and Shanagh Bob have claims. I sensed at the media day I attended at Seven Barrows that he was quite sweet on Doddiethegreat running well having outrun big odds to qualify recently at Haydock; first-time cheekpieces are applied. They thought they had already qualified Shanagh Bob until a rule change was tweaked so had to get him out once more than they wanted to.
Pertemps Final Recent Winners
Pertemps Final Pace Map
There's no shortage of runners on this card, but not a huge amount of signed on trailblazers here. Could be run at only an even gallop.
Pertemps Final Selection
Suggestion: Try D Art D Art each way at around 11/1 with all the extra places.
A race much maligned but one I personally love, and which has a habit of throwing up tremendous finishes. Who can forget Bryony's brilliantly bonkers post-race debrief after the wonderful Frodon took her all the way from the front in 2019?
This year's field has a ton of class - well, maybe back class - and most of them are in the right race for all that pundits aplenty will bleat that they should have gone short (Champion Chase) or long (Gold Cup). The fact is there's a vast tract of land between two miles and more than three and a quarter, and this is an eminently sensible test for intermediate stayers. That's my counter argument at least.
The favourite this year, and short, is Fact To File. A three time Grade 1 winner, twice as a novice and then first time up this season in the 2m4f John Durkan, he was widely expected to serve it up to Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup. But having been beaten by that one twice on quicker ground over three miles since, he's swerving a third beating in the Blue Riband in favour of theoretically easier pickings. He's not far off even money for this and at such a skinny quote one has to find a reason to oppose. Without looking too hard, I've unearthed two.
First, all his winning form is on soft ground and he was beaten the last twice on good to yielding and yielding; and second, isn't this trip a bit on the short side if it's not deep ground? In truth, I don't know, and it will shock literally nobody if he wins, even wins well. But those questions are enough to look for a bit of potential value elsewhere.
French raider Il Est Francais heads here from his choice of the three Championship chases, and I feel that's probably right after he was gunned down late by Banbridge in the King George at Christmas. Most of his French form is very smart, as are his two Kempton spins (he blitzed his field in the Kauto Star 15 months ago), but he too is a short price and has thrown a couple of outright clunkers in his last four races. Candidly, he has the profile of a 'bleeder': one who, under the pressure of a race can burst a blood vessel.
Il Est Francais is likely to try to make all, tactics adopted successfully by not just the aforementioned Frodon but also Allaho twice and, a little further back, Uxizandre and Cue Card. But he should expect contention for the lead, from one or more of Heart Wood, Jungle Boogie and Hang In There. If he does get an 'easy', he's a danger no doubt.
Last year's winner, Protektorat, returns to defend his crown and he comes here off a pretty good season so far including a win in a valuable conditions race at Windsor's Winter Millions fixture in late January. My feeling is that he might just prefer a softer surface; but if he handles the expected quicker turf he's an obvious player again albeit that no horse older than nine has won this since Albertas Run doubled up in 2011.
The 2023 winner, Envoi Allen, also tries again. He was second to Protektorat last year as a ten-year-old and, well into the veteran stage now, looks an unlikely - if hugely popular - winner to my eye.
Jungle Boogie is also 11, as is Hang In There. Neither has achieved as much as age mate Envoi Allen, though JB has been lightly raced, and as such they cannot be seriously fancied.
At the other end of the age spectrum, Djelo may have more to offer than his already progressive profile. Last seen winning the G2 Denman Chase over 2m7f, the worry is that, like Fact To File, he maybe needs further and/or softer. Unlike FTF, Djelo is an each way price. His form ties in with Protektorat, but he's two and a half times that one's price as well.
Master Chewy is a two miler stepping up in trip. A good winner of the Game Spirit (G2) at Newbury last time, he might have been better off going to the Queen Mother, his two races at this distance yielding a brace of eighth placed finishes, granted over hurdles.
Another young buck, Heart Wood, rounds out the nine horse field. A Listed Hurdle winner in France before transferring to Henry de Bromhead, he went straight over fences in Ireland winning at the fourth time of asking in a valuable Leopardstown handicap before a good third in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree. This season, he bashed Corbetts Cross first time out (form not to take literally), was a neck second to the decent Croke Park in the Drinmore Novices' Chase before losing his novice status and running a creditable fourth to Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas. Henry can be expected to have improved him in the interim and I like his quietly ascendant profile, form on all surfaces, and proven ability at this distance. He's got a little bit to find on ratings but, as the joint youngest in the field, he's more entitled than most to do so.
Ryanair Chase Recent Winners
Ryanair Chase Pace Map
The French raider is very likely to take them along and he probably doesn't want too much rope. Unless you've backed him, of course.
Ryanair Chase Selection
A race in which Fact To File makes the price for anything else you might like. Of course, he might just go and win but the race doesn't look a perfect profile fit for his skillset and so an each way alternative is sought. Il Est Francais is not an each way price and is a bit of a binary sort these days in any case. The two I like in that win and place context are Djelo and Heart Wood. The former has a better level of proven ability but might want a bit further/softer, the latter has race conditions in his favour but needs to improve - I think he maybe can.
Suggestion: Back one or both of 16/1 Heart Wood and/or 12/1 Djelo, each way a pleasure.
Matt's Tix Pix: A couple on A including Fact To File, and some B's including unnamed favourite. I want to get FTF beat but not sure I can get him off the ticket!
Teahupoo is the market leader again for the Stayers’ having won last year and, as then, he arrives after just one prep run in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December. He was beaten by Lossiemouth this time although Gordon Elliott was more than happy with that run and has set him aside since. He looks at his best when the mud is flying, with form figures on soft or heavy reading 111111111 as opposed to 21963412 on good or good to soft ground. Freshness is also clearly important, with his record off a break of 50+ days reading 111111112, and off shorter breaks 119634.
This year, the freshness box is ticked but Teahupoo will need more rain to get his desired ground, seemingly unlikely as I pen these words. It is also intriguing that Elliott does not rely on Teahupoo alone, but also has the switched Pertemps fancy The Wallpark in this race. That gelding ran well in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot but needs to improve again to win at the top level.
Home By The Lee is the main danger on form, having beaten Bob Olinger in both the Lismullen Hurdle and the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, and he’s reported to be a different horse this season by connections. He would indeed need to do something different to win this race at the fourth attempt having been no closer than third previously. That is possible, but to be honest, I don’t think his form this season is any better than it was 12 months ago for all he may be transformed on the home gallops.
Bob Olinger is held on this season’s form and looks a weak finisher at this trip, but it should be pointed out that he has a great Cheltenham record, winning the Baring Bingham and the Turners (Golden Miller) in March before landing last year’s Relkeel. That record flatters him a touch as he would have been beaten readily by Galopin des Champs on the second occasion but for that horse tumbling at the last fence. The anticipated ground will help Bob Olinger in terms of seeing the race out, but he tends to look awkward under pressure these days and isn’t convincing enough to draw me in.
Third to Home By The Lee at Leopardstown was the relative novice Rocky’s Pride, who improved on that when winning the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran next time. Declan Queally’s charge would be a big Stayers' stat buster as he bids to become the first five-year-old to win this contest in the modern era (*dons anorak* The Spa Hurdle, which was the equivalent contest at the post-war Cheltenham, was won by five-year-old Whim in 1951, but the race that year took place in late April, and the weights ranged from 11-12 to 10-4, suggesting that comparisons are pointless).
If there is a genuine staying star of the future in the field, it’s him, and the youngster won the Galmoy while still looking a work in progress. Realistically, he probably needs another year to reach maturity as a stayer, but I think there is a huge amount of talent there and I don’t want to pass him over without mention.
LUCKY PLACE isn’t a certain stayer, but last year’s Coral Cup fourth has improved again this term, winning the Ascot Hurdle and the Relkeel, and while it’s probably a little ingenuous to point out that he had the current Champion Hurdle winner behind on both those occasions, it does bear mentioning that he was giving weight to subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Gowel Road on the latter occasion. He needed every yard in the Relkeel and looks to my eye like he will stay three miles - on good ground at least - and he’s the percentage call, with a win bet making more appeal than backing him each-way given that slight query about the trip
Stayers' Hurdle Recent Winners
Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map
Gowel Road is the probable pace maker and he does love it at Cheltenham. Not many others tend to go forward but perhaps Home By The Less will be thereabouts.
It should be noted that it was a Class 1 Grade 3 contest from 2004 to 2022 but since 2023 it has become just a Class 1 race.
This is not the strongest trends race of the week but here are the main stats based on the past 25 years. In terms of the betting market, winners have been well spread across different prices. Four of the last six have been 9/1 or less, but overall, only seven out of the 25 winners were single figure prices. Nine winners were 20/1 or bigger with a further 25 placed so you cannot rule out many runners based on price.
In terms of weight carried there were no wins for the two highest weighted runners but overall there has been an even distribution of winners and placed runners across the weights. Likewise, when looking at the age of the horses there is no clear pattern. Horses aged 9 or older have been competitive and arguably have offered better long-term value than their younger counterparts. Having said that, beware of horses that have raced a lot over fences: those with 17 or more career starts over fences prior to their Plate spin have won just once from 116 runners.
Venetia Williams has had three winners and six placed from 31 but no win since 2013 (she did saddle the second in 2016 at 33/1). She runs Gemirande and an interesting outsider in Demnat this year. Irish runners have won five of the last nine renewals and are definitely targeting this race more than in the early 2000s.
Last time out winners have done well, claiming ten of the 25 renewals in my trends sample from 99 runners with 28% placing. 22 of the last 25 finished in the first seven last time out. Horses that won at least once in their last three starts have been three times more likely to win and twice as likely to place as horses who have drawn a blank in those three runs.
The first two horses to discuss are two that don’t stand out from a trends perspective. Ginnys Destiny did very little wrong last season including three wins and a second at Cheltenham. This season he has disappointed three times when prominent in the betting on all three occasions. What those runs have done is lower his handicap mark to 149, 6lb below where it was at the start of the season. Paul Nicholls has been talking him up and if he's anywhere near his best he comes into the equation.
The Companysergeant is interesting for two reasons. Firstly, he has recently moved to the Gavin Cromwell yard and in his only race for them finished a close up third over hurdles. After three decent runs in the summer of 2024 his form that autumn was poor, which may have prompted the stable switch. Secondly, I keep beeing drawn back to his six-length fourth to Spillane’s Tower in the Grade 1 WillowWarm Gold Cup at the end of March last year. If he can match that form he has a very solid chance.
Jagwar is the clear favourite at the time of writing. He has come here rather than the Jack Richards Novices’ handicap earlier on the card so connections clearly think he can beat more seasoned rivals. He was a winner at Cheltenham last time in what looked a hot handicap so that is a positive trends wise. Although he has gone up 7lb he's clearly still improving. It's only his price that tempers enthusiasm.
An Peann Dearg comes here on a hat-trick and was very impressive last time at Leopardstown. However, he's gone up 12lb for that effort. Like Jagwar he had an entry in the Jack Richards but takes his chance here. Despite the rise in the weights he could still be thereabouts.
Personal Ambition would have won two starts back at Ascot in a Grade 2 chase but for a terrible mistake at the last. As a hurdler, he claimed some big scalps last year including Jango Baie. If you can forgive his latest run he looks a decent price and trainer Ben Pauling, who won the race last year, definitely knows how to train a handicap chaser. Since 2022 Pauling has a strike rate in handicap chases of close to 22% returning 19p in the £ to SP (33p to BSP). Personal Ambition also should be close to the pace which I think is important here based on the overall stats for this course and distance as well as the recent history of this race.
Festival Plate Recent Winners
Festival Plate Pace Map
Yet another big field and another with no out and out speed merchants. Any of Ginny's, Gemirande, Seddon and Personal Ambition might play 'catch me'.
Festival Plate Selection
I backed the The Companysergeant ante post at much bigger odds and the price is a little too tight now for me. I am going for two against the field at bigger odds from either side of the pond.
Suggestion: Back Personal Ambition each way at 20/1 and An Peann Dearg each way at 16/1 (5 places)
5.20 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)
Previewed by David Massey.
I do love the Kim Muir. The purists will scoff, but you could put seven Kim Muir’s on on the Thursday and I’d be happy as a sandboy. Honest.
And this year I’m fairly confident I’ve got the winner from a choice of two. (Famous last words.)
The Irish, as ever, have a strong hand in this, and Midnight Our Fred has to be on any shortlist you care to draw up for this.
He was entered up in the marathon on Day One, but once confirmations meant it looked very much like he’d get a run in this, there was only ever one way he’d go.
He isn’t a clever selection by any means, but look how many boxes he ticks. Firstly, Cheltenham form: three runs at the track resulting in three second places, including to Mole Court in an amatuers event back here in 2023, narrowly failing to peg back the (then) improving winner on the run-in to the tune of half a length. Off the back of that he ran another solid race at the December meeting and came back again at the April two-dayer to run second to Hymac over 3m4f, the pair nicely clear of anything else. Those three efforts ranged on ground from good to soft, so whatever the elements may throw at him before Thursday, he should handle with ease.
And the good form doesn’t stop there, either; this season, an easy 14-length win at Gowran Park on his seasonal debut was followed up by an excellent second in the big-field Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. See what I mean about him ticking every box? Cheltenham form, big-field form, stays well, goes well for an amateur? What’s not to like, good readers of Geegeez?
I’ll back him up with another of the Irish contingent in Mint Boy, who has definitely been laid out for this after just the four chase starts. Useful over hurdles, he made a solid start to his chasing career when third to Search For Glory and Sa Majeste at Gowran Park, and two quick runs in December (over shorter trips) looked nothing more than a means to an end in getting him a mark. A better effort at Punchestown last month when third to High Class Hero should have teed him up nicely for this, and he remains totally unexposed over fences. This stamina test seems sure to suit, and I can see him taking a big step forward form-wise now.
Finding something among the British contingent that might be able to throw down a challenge isn’t easy. I have a soft spot for Dom Of Mary and put him up for this last year; a couple of mistakes on the way around hardly helped his cause, but he could get no nearer than eighth, and unless there’s an absolute deluge on Wednesday it might well be more of the same.
I suppose the capable but utterly inconsistent Weveallbeencaught is of some interest in new headgear. He looked a happier horse when returned to Nigel Twiston-Davies at Doncaster in January, winning an easy nine lengths, but couldn’t repeat that effort when fifth in the Grimthorpe last time out. On goes some stronger headgear, with the visor replacing cheekpieces, and a tongue tie is also employed, as it was in the Ultima last year (when sixth). Toby McCain-Mitchell is one of the better British riders, in my opinion, and if he’s on a going day, he could give his pilot a decent spin.
Kim Muir Recent Winners
Kim Muir Pace Map
Midnight Our Fred is most likely to set the tempo, though there is a clutch who could challenge early. Should be run at a decent gallop.
Kim Muir Selection
Suggestion: Split stakes between 9/1 Midnight Our Fred and 12/1 Mint Boy.
*
And that's us three-quarters of the way home. Hopefully you've had a couple of good draws already; if not, fear not for Gold Cup day will follow. But let's enjoy Thursday's sport first!
Good luck
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/275616468-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-12 12:28:392025-03-12 18:22:20Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips
Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
Day Two. Wednesday. The second half of the first half - or the second quarter if you prefer - and a day when, seemingly, it has rained since time immemorial. After a full soaking in the past two years, it's looking dry if a little cool for Day 2 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. There's much to go at so let's crack on - slightly earlier start, don't forget. Over to our team of shrewdies (and me) for their thoughts. Vamanos!
1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
Previewed by Rory Delargy.
The Turners - or to save confusion the Baring Bingham - Novices’ Hurdle kicks off Tuesday’s card and looks a fairly straightforward race to analyse from a race shape perspective. I’d imagine one of the Mullins pair Kaid d’Authie and Kappa Jye Pyke will go forward, if not both, and that should ensure that regular front-runner Sixmilebridge doesn’t get an easy lead. Sixmilebridge might be a player if he can get loose in front, having employed those tactics to beat a slightly below-par Potters Charm in the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle here on Trials Day.
That wasn’t strictly over course and distance as it took place on the New Course and, while the winner did it well, it’s hard to take a high view of the form unless assuming Potters Charm ran right up to his best, which I don’t think he did, albeit not falling that far short of his previous standard. Given that was Trials Day, it’s interesting to see how winners of that race have got on in the Baring Bingham over the years. Much has been made of the poor record of Challow winners in the race, but you need to go back to Monsignor to find the last horse to win the Classic and the Baring Bingham in the same season. That’s disappointing given the similarity in track and trip, and the horses who have gone on to success at Cheltenham after winning in January were the stayers Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross, underlining how the New Course tests stamina above tactical speed.
Potters Charm is better judged on his track and trip win in November and his Grade 1 win in the Formby at Aintree in December. Those victories catapulted him to the head of the market for this race, but they do not look as good now as they did at the time, and his defeat of Miami Magic at Aintree compares poorly with Tripoli Flyer’s win over the same horse at Kempton last time. Tripoli Flyer might be a little underrated with neither Musselburgh nor Kempton striking as the ideal track for a horse with plenty of late boot, but the concern with him is that he was reported to have broken a blood vessel despite winning the Dovecote, and that is a no-no here.
The New Lion is the best of the British and just shades favouritism after winning the Challow at Newbury in December. He was visually impressive, enough for J P McManus to open his chequebook, but the form of the Challow is pretty hollow. The runner-up Wendigo is a progressive stayer, but the Newbury race tested speed over stamina for a change, and Wendigo was outpaced before running on late for second. The horses that The New Lion actually bested at Newbury looked promising at the time, but neither Regents Stroll nor Bill Joyce have fulfilled early promise over hurdles and, on paper, the form is not at all strong for a Grade 1 hurdle. I get the impression that The New Lion might have had plenty more in hand, but it’s hard to put a figure on that, and my feeling is that he’s been overrated by the handicappers, public and private.
Dan Skelton knows more about this gelding’s latent ability and seems full of confidence, which makes me wary of taking him on, but his price assumes he is every bit as good as he looked at Newbury and then some, and I couldn’t make him anywhere near as short as the market does.
Final Demand was all the rage after beating Wingmen easily over 2¾m at the DRF but there was talk of him switching to the Albert Bartlett, and he drifted as a result. That came to nothing, and he should have regained favouritism when declared for this, but the doubts seem to have persisted. This race has gone to Champion Hurdle prospects in the past (Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Faugheen) and if there is a Champion Hurdler in this field then it isn't Final Demand, who looks as if he would gallop all day. I suspect this is why he’s deemed opposable, as he might be vulnerable in a tactical race, and that should be taken on board. On the other hand, the race has also been won by plenty of stayers down the years and if Paul Townend wants to set an end-to-end gallop, then Final Demand looks a willing partner. I think he’s a much better option than The New Lion and he deserves to be favourite.
Given what I’ve said above, I would not put anyone off Final Demand if getting 2/1 or bigger, but in acknowledging that his 12-length defeat of Wingmen at Leopardstown is the best form in the race, I must also point out that THE YELLOW CLAY beat Wingmen by 11 lengths and Jasmin de Vaux by 22 when winning the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas at – well, you know where it’s at – in January. Given Wingmen and Jasmin de Vaux finished third and fourth at Naas and then finished second and fourth at Leopardstown, it could be argued that they are excellent yardsticks for the novice form, and The Yellow Clay has a very similar chance to Final Demand on a line through the pair of them.
Much has been made of the fact that The Lawlor’s was run on heavy ground as if that was a big advantage to The Yellow Clay, but I thought he hated the ground (I think they all hated the ground, in truth) and that his inherent class saw him home. He certainly doesn’t need heavy, running below form in the Champion Bumper last year, albeit with credit, before turning the tables on Romeo Coolio at Punchestown in the Grade 1 bumper there, where he also had William Munny and Jasmin de Vaux behind. His first two hurdles wins also came on yielding ground, and he beat Fleur In The Park much more easily in the Monksfield than he did in the Navan Novice Hurdle on softer ground in December. Gordon Elliott seemed to me to have a twinkle in his eye when he says, “I’m not sure he’s as slow as people think” and he looks the standout value in the contest.
Turners Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Turners Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Lots of paper pace, and that man Mullins has the cards in terms of dictating the tempo. Should be truly run.
Turners Novices' Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Back The Yellow Clay each-way at 13/2.
This race has had an average field size of 11 runners but, as with last year when six went to post, we have a shorter field of just seven here. I was hoping for the 'dead eight' which as a punter clearly gives more options. Let's first look at past trends in this race going back 25 years.
Irish bred runners have won 19 of the 25 races from 172 runners which equates to 11% and have had just under 30% hit the frame; other countries combined (GB/FR etc) are 6 wins from 103 (5.8%) with 21% placed.
Age wise, 7yos have dominated with 20 wins from the last 25. Yes, they have had more than half of the total runners, 52% to be precise, but from that 52% they have won 80% of the races (31.3% placed). 6yos have just one win from 48 but have a decent placed record and they have just one qualifier this year in Quai De Bourbon. 8yos are three from 53 (5.7%) but with only 17% hitting the frame.
Looking at past market factors, between 1999 and 2014 there were seven double figure priced winners, but none since. There have been nine winning favourites (six in last 10 years) and 10 of the last 11 renewals have gone to one of the front three in the market.
Previous winning course form has been a plus with past Cheltenham winners 1.8 times more likely to win than those that have not. Previous Festival winners have done very well from a small band of runners. Of the 20 prior Cheltenham Festival winners five won (25%) and 12 in total won or placed (60%). Backing all 20 would have yielded a 61% ROI to BSP.
23 of the 25 winners won or came second LTO. Horses that finished third or worse are just two from 87 (2.3%).
All 25 winners raced between three and 11 weeks previously. Fifty horses have either run with a shorter or longer break than that and all of them lost, with only 10% of them managing a place.
Willie Mullins has saddled the winner five times, and he has the top two in the betting (and four of the seven runners in total). The favourite, Ballyburn, ticks many of the trends boxes. He won the Turners Novices’ hurdle at an absolute canter at the Festival last year; he won last time out; and he is eight from ten in his career, and two from three over fences. His loss over fences came at Kempton in December when beaten a speedier Sir Gino over two miles. This race is at three miles which is uncharted territory for him, but with the ground as it is, the consensus is he has every chance of staying. He is well clear on Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed and he looks a solid favourite, albeit at a short price.
Second favourite Dancing City has been ultra consistent over both hurdles and fences. From a trends perspective, however, he has a few negatives to overcome. He is an 8yo, is French bred, and has yet to win at Cheltenham. That said, and to be fair, he has only raced here once when third in last year’s Albert Bartlett. A positive is that we know he gets the trip.
Third in the market is Better Days Ahead, an interesting contender from the Gordon Elliott yard. He won at the festival last year in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (positive trend) and is two from three this year with his sole defeat being by a head two starts back at Leopardstown. He has only raced in very small fields over fences, and he will get that again here. A winner at the distance, there are no stamina concerns.
Gorgeous Tom has a few trends to overcome including finishing only fourth last time in the Grade 1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse (2m4f), but he was rattling home that day and would have won in a few more strides. He has to prove himself over the extra distance and, if he does, he could be seriously overpriced around 12/1. If there had been eight runners, he would have been my each way pick along with my win selection below.
Brown Advisory Chase Recent Winners
Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map
Ballyburn may make his own running but will perhaps more likely sit behind a stablemate (Lecky or Quai).
Brown Advisory Chase Selection
Ballyburn is a short price and generally I’m not a short odds player. However, I think he is a 10/11 maybe even 5/6 chance, and he is still odds against in a few places which I think represents value.
Suggestion: Back Ballyburn at odds against.
Matt's Tix Pix: Ballyburn on A, and a couple of alternates on B
The Coral Cup is one of my favourite races of the week to tackle, as there are some trends that can help us try and find the winner, but equally you’ve a chance of hitting something at a big ol’ price. Four of the last seven winners have gone off 20/1 or bigger, with 33/1 Heaven Help Us and 50/1 Commander Of Fleet among them, so this is a race that can throw up proper shocks.
It used to be the case that backing those towards the top end of the handicap lost money on a regular basis, but since the handicaps became more compressed that is no longer the case. The first five home last year all carried 11st or more, and the angle of a class dropper, despite having to carry a big weight, is one that should not be overlooked.
Ballyadam is a perfect case in point. He’s a Festival regular, having finished fifth in the 2023 County Hurdle (under 11-7) and then second to the, ahem, rejuvenated Langer Dan in this under the welter burden of twelve stone last year. He often mixes it at levels with the best of them, but can clearly operate when asked to give weight away to inferior horses despite age catching up with him. He’s lightly raced for a ten-year-old, and looks sure to give another good account of himself. A drop of rain Wednesday morning (some is forecast) would help his cause, too.
Just underneath Ballyadam on the racecard is Eagle Fang, and I’ve long thought he could be the type to go well in a race such as this. He was one of the picks of the paddock for the Fred Winter last year but blew out, Philip Enright going round the inside on heavy ground probably not helping his cause. I made him one to follow all the same and it didn’t take long for that faith to be repaid, when he came good at a big price at Punchestown in May.
He lost nothing in defeat to Home By The Lee in Grade 2 company at Navan in November and, off the back of that, connections tried their luck in the Grade 1 Long Walk at Ascot. Having looked like he might get involved for the places at one point his stamina rather gave way, and the combination of that and Grade 1 company ultimately proved too much. Nevertheless, he was only beaten nine lengths and on the figures had taken another step forward. It’s worth bearing in mind Oakley Brown was unable to claim his 5lb allowance there, which he will be able to do here, and having had a bit of a break since Ascot is no bad thing either. The worry is that a mark of 147 looks a touch too high so, for all I think he’ll run well, others make a shade more appeal.
At the front end of the market you simply cannot ignore Impose Toi, given Nicky Henderson’s record in the race (four winners) and owner JP McManus, notwithstanding that he throws plenty of darts at this, has had the winner three times and numerous others placed in the race. Impose Toi dotted up here (over two miles) a couple of seasons ago and at that stage all sorts of fancy entries were bandied about. He ran to a very similar level in two subsequent starts in hot handicaps. We’ve only seen him the once this year, when winning with something to spare over 2m4½f at Newbury, and this strong-travelling sort looks just the type to go well here. Cheekpieces go on, which I think is neither here nor there (it isn’t the negative it used to be perceived as in this race) and he has to go well, I feel.
And where is the daft each-way fiver at a silly price going? Look no further than Lossiemouth (not that one, the other one), a former Grade 2 winner for Tom Lacey who has come back from a long absence this season to run perfectly well for Polly Gundry in three competitive handicap hurdles, all around three miles. Now, I’m not totally convinced he stays that far, and this drop back in trip could be just what the doctor ordered. He shapes as if he retains most of his ability and a mark of 133 is fair and reflects where we are with him at present. He’ll be ignored in the market, but it would be no surprise to me if he hit the frame here.
Coral Cup Recent Winners
Coral Cup Pace Map
Loads of pace, headed by Maxxum and 'the other' Lossiemouth. Cards played late may be the answer tactically.
Coral Cup Selection
Impose Toi looks like he ought to go close and, at monster prices, 'the other' Lossiemouthcould give a run for each way money. Bag the extra places where you can.
Suggestion: Back Impose Toi to win at 9/1, and/or Lossiemouth each way at 40/1 or bigger.
3.20 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Cross Country reverts to being a handicap after eight renewals as a level-weights race, albeit it is now a 20lb limited handicap rather than the full 26lb.
The key to betting on the Cross Country is understanding the nature of the course. At Punchestown and Pardubice the cross-country tracks pre-date the conventional tracks but at Cheltenham it had to be shoehorned into the middle of the existing conventional courses in the 1990s.
The consequence is that the Cheltenham cross-country course is extremely tight and sharp. There are very few opportunities to gallop until the business end. As such, the skillset needed is to be able to negotiate the variety of obstacles, keeping on an even keel and then an ability to quicken when the sprint starts.
In consequence, they go slowly for much of the race and so it’s much easier for the classy horses to give the weight away. Three of the 11 renewals as a 26lb handicap were won by the top-weight – and that was when the race was contested by lower quality horses than it is today.
As a level-weights race it was dominated in recent years by ex-Grade 1 horses: if they took to the idiosyncratic test they had a huge advantage, outclassing the handicappers they were up against.
In the last five renewals if you’d applied a simple 1lb for 1 length approach, the winner would have won even if it had been a 20lb handicap. Given that it’s easier to give the weight away going so slowly, I think the top-weights are at an even bigger advantage than that ‘standard’ method suggests.
The question all season was who was going to realise that and continue to target their ex-Grade 1 horses at the race - and who was going to think that because it was a handicap they wouldn’t win and so wouldn’t run their ex-Grade 1 horses.
Gordon Elliott seems to have worked this out and, ground permitting, was always aiming Galvin at the race. He has won six of the last seven renewals and, whilst the fact it’s a handicap makes it harder for him, he is still the trainer to focus on. Gordon is 6/23 +3pt (15% ROI) so far. 13 of those 23 runners finished in the first three.
Even when it was a 26lb handicap the front of the market dominated – 8 of the 11 renewals were won by one of the first three in the market. Seven of the eight level-weights renewals did, too, and with much classier types in this than the old 2005-2015 handicap I’m expecting the front of the market to continue to dominate.
The ground was always going to be important. The Cross Country course doesn’t have the artificial drainage that the conventional tracks have but equally it’s harder to water. Cheltenham now can water it but there is only one race on it and they tend to do so sparingly to avoid fast ground rather watering for slow ground. As a result, it tends to ride more naturally. The weather gods have favoured Galvin with the ground due to be predominantly good to soft.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Recent Winners
*Handicap up to 2015, conditions race 2016-2024, reverted to a handicap in 2025. Abandoned in 2024.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map
This will be a jog then sprint affair, so the pace map is very much for information purposes only.
The Champion Chase is the pre-eminent speed test for top class chasers but, this year, it's a race shorn of many of its likelier lads, due to injury, poor form or that pesky Ryanair Chase. One bona fide star that will get the green (and gold) light is Jonbon, whose eleventh hour withdrawal twelve months ago robbed the race - and racing fans - of its main protagonist.
In his absence, Henry de Bromhead swooped to conquer with 17/2 shot Captain Guinness. The Captain defends his crown but has been in far less authoritative form this time around. Still, a glance at the Recent Winners section below attests to the folly of discounting a de Bromhead runner in the QMCC: he also won the race in 2021, 2017 and 2011. Guinness may be on many revellers' minds on Wednesday afternoon, but it's far more likely they're pondering another pint of the black stuff than a punt on a horse whose best run of three this term was a 26 length pasting by Solness.
Henry also runs Quilixios, a slightly bigger price even than Captain Guinness. A confirmed front runner, the former Triumph Hurdle winner is unlikely to have it all his way on the sharp end with, most notably, Solness expected to vie for early primacy. But his run behind Jonbon at Sandown in December's Tingle Creek gives him only a large hill, rather than a mountain, to climb to beat the fav.
We really ought to discuss Jonbon. Trained by Nicky Henderson, who saddled the Champion Chase winner in 1992, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2018 and 2019, a Jonbon victory would make him the outright winningmost trainer in the history of the race; and his lad is a shade of odds on to do it.
On any of a number of runs from this season and last, he is the best horse in the race. His jumping is usually assured, his run style is versatile and he has no ground allergies. So why isn't he shorter in the market? Well, come the hour and he might be; but, to this point, there have been murmurings of a Cheltenham issue as well as the fact that the Champion Chase has been a bridge too far for a plethora of shorties in recent times.
El Fabiolo, at 2/9, was the latest strong favourite to succumb last year, and was preceded by Shishkin (5/6) in 2022, Chacun Pour Soi (8/13) in 2021, Defi Du Seuil (2/5) in 2020, Douvan (2/9) in 2017, Un De Sceaux (4/6) in 2016, Sizing Europe (4/5) in 2012, Master Minded (4/5) in 2010, Well Chief (Evs) in 2007, Moscow Flyer (5/6) in 2004 and Flagship Uberalles (11/10) in 2000. Holy hotpots!
It should be said that 6/5 Energumene, 4/11 and Evs Altior, 1/4 Sprinter Sacre and 4/11 Master Minded all got it done in the same time window and it's well worth noting that three of that quintet were trained by Henderson. Only Shishkin from the 'naughty' list was sent from Seven Barrows.
Jonbon is a bit of a machine. He's won 17 of his 20 races, and been second on the other three occasions. Perhaps he's another to bet with the 'money back as free bet if second' concession with the tote. The three defeats were by a superlative Constitution Hill in an awe-inspiring Supreme in 2022; a rampant El Fabiolo (before that one lost the plot) in the Arkle of 2023; and - the only downright disappointment - in the re-routed Clarence House Chase last year (Ascot was unraceable so the race was staged at Cheltenham - Jonbon was beaten a neck at 1/4).
After a quiet but winning seasonal debut this campaign, the green and gold silks have sauntered to success twice more - both at Grade 1 level - and he just looks a man amongst veterans and juniors.
Energumene commands great respect as a two-time winner of the race, in 2022 and 2023 aged 8 and 9; but he missed the gig last year and is 11 now. True, that didn't stop Moscow Flyer rolling back the years when claiming his second Champion Chase in 2005 but the Flyer entered as the best horse in the race and was returned 6/4 favourite. Energumene is no longer the best in the field. Still, he's an 11-time winner from 14 starts and may have degenerated insufficiently to miss the podium.
A few of the Irish contenders have incestuous form lines. Solness came out on top, ahead of Marine Nationale, Quilixios and Captain Guinness in the Dublin Chase at DRF: having led from early in the race, he established a big advantage which was all but erased by MN approaching the last. But the runner up found less than anticipated while the winner found more than might have been expected. They were clear of the remainder. I do have a suspicion that Quilixios may have been under-cooked and also may have raced on the worst of the ground up the inner, where his rivals pretty much all took the high road close to the outer rail.
Prior to February's Dublin Chase, Solness had also beaten Marine Nationale by a similar margin in the Leopardstown Grade 1 at Christmas. There, Found A Fifty ran no sort of race and was pulled up. However, the last named was reported by the vet to have a dirty nose post-race rendering his effort a 'chuck out'. Earlier in the season, Found A Fifty had beaten Solness in the G2 Fortria Chase and had won over two and a half miles a fortnight prior in another Grade 2, that one on good ground.
Going back a little further, Gordon Elliott's charge got closest to a fully on song Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle at Cheltenham a year ago; so he handles quicker ground, has performed well at the Festival, and has two wins prior to a run that can be discounted from his three 2024/5 spins. He may be over-priced.
Beyond Jonbon, British hopes rest with Libberty Hunter. He was second in the G2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last month and has good Cheltenham handicap form on top of the ground. But this is a much bigger ask than handicaps for all that he was third in the Grade 1 Maghull at Aintree last spring.
Champion Chase Recent Winners
Champion Chase Pace Map
Quilixios and Solness, probably the latter, will go forward. Jonbon should sit just off that tempo with the rest expected to be more patiently ridden.
Champion Chase Selection
There is a weighty body of men (and women) who sailed to their wagering end due to the siren calls of short priced Champion Chase jollies, but some people never learn. Jonbon is clear of his field on any critical analysis of the form book and he looks a square enough price at close to even money as I write. That's obviously not a sexy price so each way alternatives are worth considering. I'm apprehensive of the Solness/Marine Nationale collateral, but appreciate I could have that wrong. Still, I don't want to bet something at 5/1 or so against what I think is a very solid favourite. Far better to have a tiny swing, either e/w or without the favourite, on either or both of Found A Fifty and/or Quilixios. Not much damage done if we miss at those sorts of prices.
Suggestion: Back Jonbon with the tote's 'money back as a free bet if second', and consider Found A Fifty or Quilixios in the 'without' and each way markets.
4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. A key feature of the Grand Annual is that it is a kinder race for prominent racers, whereas the stiffer New Course was a benefit for hold-up horses. This is evident in the 'Recent Winners' section below where, prior to 2014, hold up horses were the de facto play; but since then, it's been the front half of the field (and a few midfielders) which has held sway. Le Prezien's 2018 score from off the pace is a helpful reminder that nothing is assured when shortlisting, but the balance of favour has very much been to those with more behind than in front through the early fractions.
A glance at the 'Form' column below shows that recent winning form is not a prerequisite, and nor is a recent run. Ratings wise, most winners were between 136 and 147, give or take, and that's an area on which to focus.
Looking for those within the ratings band and who are generally ridden in the front half of the field, I'm left with Unexpected Party, Fringill Dike, The King of Prs, and Traprain Law.
Unexpected Party won the race by daylight last year and is only 6lb higher this time around. He represents the 'Dead-eye Dan' Skelton barn who have been so successful in Cheltenham Festival handicaps in recent years, and may go close again. Expect him to race more prominently than in recent outings: he was near the speed when galloping away from them twelve months ago.
Gavin Cromwell is another handler for whom the handicaps have been a rich source of joy, and he's represented by The King Of Prs (and also My Mate Mozzie and Midnight It Is). The King best fits my tenuous shortlist bill though form of 231 this season has done little to mask his level of ability. He ran in the race last year but couldn't go the early tempo and made mistakes before falling, all of which tempers enthusiasm considerable.
JP McManus likes to have a swing at this. As well as four winners in the past two decades, McManus has owned fully nine runners up (thanks to Paul Ferguson and his Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide for this cracking snippet). The green and gold livery will be singularly sported by So Scottish this season. Second to Stayers' Hurdle-bound The Wallpark in a Listed handicap hurdle on yielding ground at the Galway Festival last summer - two poorer efforts since - he's not run over fences since December 2023, when he fell in the December Gold Cup. He's obviously a strong stayer and connections, including trainer Emmet Mullins, are hugely respected; but this would be a fine training performance were he to win.
Since 2009 there have been nine Grand Annual winners returned 16/1 or bigger, including 66/1, 40/1 and 28/1 twice. In that spirit, I'm returning to my shortlist and Fringill Dike and Traprain Law. Fringill Dike is a good ground specialist, typically races prominently and comes here well rested; true, he may be overly well rested and we have to take fitness on trust. To that end, form off a 100+ day absence over obstacles reads 112 which helps keep the faith. He's won five of his nine chases and he's 66/1 - that makes him worth a very small each way guess.
Traprain Law hails from the Lucinda Russell yard that knows how to win staying handicap chases at the Festival. Whether she can repeat the dose over a 'sprint' trip is a different question, of course, but she may have a better chance than the market implies with this second season chaser. He's a perennial prominent racer and has sometimes appeared to be outpaced in the latter stages of his races; perhaps this expected much faster tempo will run the finish out of his rivals?
Since 2014, the last time out finishing position of Grand Annual winners, as a form string, reads 94P08212309. That may (or may not) be another nod to So Scottish, whose claims are obviously not obvious, if you see what I mean.
Grand Annual Recent Winners
Grand Annual Pace Map
Licketty split, no doubt. Expected to favour those in the first half to two-thirds of the field over the very late runners. Unless they go an absolute million. Which they might.
Grand Annual Selection
The 2025 Grand Annual is, as always, a very difficult puzzle to solve. In that spirit, I'll try one from the top and two massive Hail Mary's. So Scottish is as much about his connections as his recent form; but delving further back would make him attractively handicapped in his own right. If we're to have another 'skinner winner' it might be one of Traprain Lawor Fringill Dike, both of which seem well enough suited to the test with the important proviso that they might not be nearly good enough! They're worth 50p e/w to find out, though.
Suggestions: Try a small win bet on 10/1 So Scottish and even smaller each way bets on 25/1 Traprain Law and 66/1 Fringill Dike with all the extra places you can muster.
Willie Mullins had been quieter than usual on the bumper scene up until the Dublin Racing Festival since which he has fired in three rockets and inherited another, and has five runners in total, so he is short odds to add to his current haul of 13 wins in the race.
Significantly in a race restricted to 4-6yos, 11 of his successes were with 5yos (and he only got one of his two winning 6yos from Gordon Elliott a fortnight before Cheltenham) so as a 6yo that slightly puts me off Gameofinches, though Fact To File was the same age when second two years ago.
Patrick Mullins has chosen Copacabana instead so Paul Townend is on Gameofinches. A speed figures guru who I respect, Andy Holding, has Copacabana with the lowest time figure of the whole field so I’m struggling to be with him at the prices given that he is favourite, even if Ruby Walsh has been talking him up as the one that he likes of the Mullins runners for the last fortnight. He can win of course but it will be a very different tempo of race to the one that he won at Navan.
Relegate caused a surprise here eight years ago following up her win in the Grade 2 mares’ bumper at the DRF and BAMBINO FEVER is trying to do likewise.
Ratings are usually overlooked when discussing the Champion Bumper as punters seem to prefer the whispers but they shouldn’t be. With her mares’ allowance, although only the perceived third choice of Mullins’ quintet, she is joint-top rated on BHA figures. That’s interesting as eight of the last 22 winners were top rated by BHA (if including a mares’ allowance), including five of the last ten and most of them didn’t start favourite. We had two joint-top rated contenders in 2022 and they finished 1-2.
At the top of those ratings we have Kalypso’Chance (130) and Bambino Fever (130) ahead of Aqua Force (127) who has recently moved to Mullins so they have done very little with him to make a difference, Idaho Sun (126) as the best of the Brits for Harry Fry, Fortune De Mer (125), Gameofinches (124), Copacabana (123), He Can’t Dance (123), Sortudo (123) and Heads Up (123).
Jody Townend rode Bambino Fever at the DRF and keeps the ride. Patrick was never in line to ride as would struggle to do the weight so he didn’t reject her.
Gordon Elliott prepared Sir Gerhard before he was switched late on to Mullins and had the second and third last year to add to his two wins in the race and, with Windbeneathmywings ruled out for David Pipe last week, he provides the main market rival to Team Mullins in Kalypso’Chance who beat Heads Up at Navan in a bumper where Elliott has run some of what turned out to be his very best horses down the years. It niggles me though that after he won Elliott hinted he had a better one.
As highlighted earlier, the main home hope has to sit it out so that mantle is now transferred to No Drama This End according to the market: he beat a well-fancied Skelton horse at Warwick. Nicholls doesn’t mind having a shy at the Champion Bumper but the closest that he has got was Captain Teague who was third two years ago. The last time the Brits won was with Ballyandy nine years ago.
The Skelton team have been talking up Fortune De Mer who won at Cheltenham earlier this season and was then beaten under a penalty on a sharp track last time and they know the time of day with their bumper team so he could be best of the Brits.
In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.
Champion Bumper Recent Winners
Champion Bumper Pace Map
Pinch of salt pace map...
Champion Bumper selection
In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.
Suggestion: Back Bambino Fever each way
*
And that's a wrap on Day 2. My thanks again to the five judges who have kindly shared their thoughts. Remember, the value game is not about a winner a race but a profit at the end of the year - let's hope also at the end of this week!
Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Jonbon_Kingmaker_Warwick2023.png319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-10 14:47:362025-03-11 09:05:49Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
We're back! The 2025 Cheltenham Festival is here and, for those of us who have found patience for its arrival difficult, the great news is it starts ten minutes earlier! Yes, it's a 1.20pm kick off each day, moved from the traditional half-one slot, so don't tune in late...
After the success of recent big meeting previews, where the races have been divvied among a brains trust of racing judges, I'm joined by some estimable company for this year's Cheltenham Festival preview posts. They are:
Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.
David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.
Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.
Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.
Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.
They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?
Also, a quick reminder about our Tix competition where you can win £100 each day. Full details are in this post, including the rules, but basically the person who gets the highest odds winning ticket wins. That means it's a level playing field for small and large stakes players so everyone has the same chance of winning. Tix is here.
Let's get to it. Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start; do not oversleep.
1.20 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
The traditional curtain raiser. The roar of the crowd. It's become cliché to mention the roar but, if you've ever been on the side of that hill some time in the middle of the hour after 1pm, you'll know it's a real, almost palpable, spirit that manifests: 55,001+ individual exhortations merging into a single raucous cheer. Part relief that the waiting is over, part hope for what might come next, all expectation of a thrilling carnival of the horse... and they're off!
Hardly surprising, then, that in such a frenzied cauldron cool heads - whether connected above two or four legs - are tricky to find. Including the preliminaries, this is a twenty minute test of temperament as much as class, speed, agility and staying power. It is a thoroughly searching examination.
So who, and which, present themselves to the trial this time? In what is an almost exclusively Irish affair in 2025, with just two home challengers (one of those a triple digit price), in theory that makes assessing the form easier; there is no need to guess which of the cohorts separated by the Irish Sea might be ascendant. Here, at least, it will be the Irish on top. And yes, probably more generally so, too. Probably, but not definitely...
Current head boy is Kopek Des Bordes, unbeaten in three and rampant in a Grade 1 when last seen. On the bare form of that Dublin Racing Club score he's a few pounds ahead of the next best, for all that he'll likely need to find a little more to withstand the onslaught of this field, all of which are entitled to improve. That's the nature of races like the Supreme, as different from more workaday contests: it's not enough to know which horse has shown the best form so far - we must project to which might step forward the most under these conditions.
Think of it like this: Kopek Des Bordes begins the race with a few lengths' head start over the next most talented horse - on what we've seen to date let's call that one Romeo Coolio. Romeo in turn gets a couple of lengths on Salvator Mundi who is himself a couple in front of William Munny and Workahead. It's a staggered ability start.
But during the course of four minutes or so of racing much can change. Advantages can be whittled or extended, and as they collect beyond the jam stick at the top of the hill there will be a revised pecking order at least somewhere on the squash ladder.
Let's return to KdB. Yes, he was imperious at Leopardstown and, if your modus operandi is not to question but merely to punt in tune with the market, he's very likely to give you a stirring run for your rupees. But the value seeker has to furrow her brow, stroke his chin and scratch its head as she/he/it considers how each horse might get beaten, and how likely it is that they will be, before settling on a wager at the prevailing odds. For a majority of runners in all races, the most likely reason they'll be beaten is because they are not good enough. But that's not the only bullet to dodge.
Kopek Des Bordes is trained by Willie Mullins, a man with seven victories in this race, the first two of which returned 25/1 and 40/1. But those were in 1995 and 2007, and Willie is a little bit better known these days. His five subsequent winners, achieved between 2013 and 2021, all returned 6/1 or shorter and were all ridden by the first string jockey. So far, so Kopek - he certainly won't be beaten because of his connections.
But this fella has shown signs of immaturity in the past. On his first run this season, on St Stephen's/Boxing Day at Leopardstown, he over raced early and was clumsy at every single flight. He still won, comfortably, in a big field containing some smart novices. Perhaps it was just freshness after his summer layoff, and greenness on his first public hurdles outing.
He returned to that same venue five weeks later and was a new man, nearly. Still a little keen for much of the race, his jumping had been transformed and he was alert enough to dodge a loose horse crossing his path as it ran out. In the finish he laughed at this Grade 1 gang, many of which appeared credible contenders pre-race. It was a terrific performance and one that promises more when he learns to settle better.
If he is headstrong, he'll need to cope with a first trip outside Ireland; and with the Festival preamble, rarely more of a test than for the opening race; and with the anxiety of his rider down at the start (even the most experienced and calmest of pilots gets dem buttyflies circling by the tape). Frankly, he's expended so much nervous energy in his first two hurdle races without facing a serious challenge in the run to the line that expecting a boilover to change the result might be wishful thinking. But if there is a chink in his armour, that's the prime suspect.
Who else? What about Romeo Coolio? Trained by Gordon Elliott, who tends to swerve the DRF with his A listers, Romeo was second in the Champion Bumper here last year (travelling, check) and won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novices' Hurdle at Christmas (class, check). He's also shown form on soft through to good to yielding turf (going, check). It was a taking performance in slamming Bleu De Vassy by nine lengths in the G1 but the horses he beat were thumped by Kopek Des Bordes over the same track and trip in February. He looks reliable but perhaps hasn't got quite the upside of the favourite. And the former Deloitte Hurdle that Kopek won has a much better track record in Supreme terms than the Future Champions.
Salvator Mundi has had a tall reputation ever since chasing home Sir Gino in France, both horses subsequently purchased by the Donnelly's. He ran a midfield race on his UK debut, in the Triumph Hurdle no less, and didn't race in Ireland until May of last year when he picked up a maiden hurdle in a field of 13 by... checks notes... 62 lengths! It's fair to say that was an extremely moderate contest in this context so what happened next? Salvator went to Punchestown for the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in mid-January and won by three lengths. His performance there - pulled hard, jumped poorly - was reminiscent of Kopek Des Bordes' seasonal debut; if he can improve a similar amount, in form and comportment terms, he's clear second best and has a chance to derail his more illustrious stablemate. If.
The last two winning trainers in the race were Henry de Bromhead and Barry Connell, both of whom have had the horrible misfortune to be touched (or in Henry's case, gripped) by tragedy in recent years. De Bromhead bids to repeat last year's success with the unexposed Workahead. Winner of a point on his debut in January 2023 (form has some substance), he was off then until early December last year when running third in a huge field behind Jasmin De Vaux. He came on for that effort in clearing away, by seven lengths from William Munny, in a maiden at Christmas.
William Munny, representing Connell, whose 2023 winner Marine Nationale was ridden by the late Michael O'Sullivan, so tragically lost and in whose memory the race is now named, has run twice since defeat to Workahead: a close second to the now injured Kawaboomga and then an easy win in Listed company last month. Neither of those runs quite match up to Workahead's performance in beating him, and Henry's horse has much the greater scope to improve. The 75 day layoff is a bit of a concern but de Bromhead knows what he's doing when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.
We're getting into the longer grass now with the likes of Irancy and Karbau, Mullins 'also engaged' types. Both are unexposed albeit with a more ordinary level of form, and neither make much appeal given Willie's first string record in this race.
Closest to Kopek Des Bordes at Leopardstown was Karniquet, who I quite fancied for the County Hurdle. Instead, he's been declared here and, though I bet him months ago, I'm behind the current price and don't fancy him one bit in this company. Funiculi Funicula is the final string to Willie's hirsute bow and he comes here off a Clonmel maiden score, which is like getting going from the springboard at your local baths to cliff diving in Mexico: good luck with that project.
There are two home contenders, comfortably the more likely of the duo being Tripoli Flyer. He was a good winner of the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, form that is solid but not spectacular. Connections initially suggested he'd miss the Cheltenham party, but here he is and it feels a bit of an afterthought. Likeable chap all the same. Tutti Quanti and Henry's other runner, Sky Lord, might need to start now to have a winning chance.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Pace Projection
More Willie's out front than an am dram production of Hot Fuzz.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection
This revolves around Kopek Des Bordes. He seems sure to be on the premises assuming he doesn't boil over and he might be almost (almost!) a bet to nothing with the 'money back (as free bet) if second' books. A value alternative is Workahead, lightly raced but with very good form in the book already. He jumps well, looks a strong stayer and has the scope to step forward a fair bit.
Suggestion: Back Kopek Des Bordes with the 'money back if second' concession. And/or try Workahead each way at 8/1 or bigger.
Matt's Tix Pix:Tix is a smart multi-race bet placement tool that is free to use. In this race, I'll have the favourite on A and a couple of alternatives, as well as unnamed favourite on B.
I have not been able to find an Arkle bet all season.
And I’m still struggling, with Majborough being a strong favourite that is hard to oppose after impressing in both chase starts this season, and also having already won at the Festival when taking last season’s Triumph. Some will point to no five-year-old having won the Arkle since the weight allowance was eradicated but none of those since Voy Por Ustedes were in Marlborough’s class and he won a four-year-old championship despite Mullins stating he looked more like a three-mile chaser. He looks correctly priced at 4/7 to finally give J P McManus a first Arkle winner and Willie Mullins his seventh in 11 years.
So, I have been waiting for a 'without Majborough' market to emerge for some inspiration for a bet and we have just four to choose from (would have been three but for the jettisoning of the Turners). They are headed by L’Eau Du Sud who is 4-4 over fences including landing the Grade 1 Henry VIII and two Grade 2s at Warwick and here over course and distance.
And that Cheltenham win was where I thought he jumped the best of his four wins. I doubt he was fully wound up at Warwick where he won the race early after kicking on five out. Too early as it turned out as Rubaud almost caught him, that one having won the Pendil since, so I’m fancying Harry Skelton to hold L’Eau Du Sud up this time and ride him to have one go at Majborough; that is also the best way to ride him if they want to guarantee good prize money for the Trainers’ Championship and David Power Cup which is also in their minds. I’m sure Dan left plenty to work on fitness-wise in the Kingmaker.
Personally, I think the best chance they have of beating Majborough is to sit on his outside and put the jolly’s jumping under pressure, as he made niggly errors at three fences down the back straight and there are two extra fences to be jumped in the Arkle over a sharper test of speed and a shorter race. Will they do that, or prefer to ride him patiently and pounce late?
I fancy that Jango Baie is a better horse than L’Eau Du Sud but can he be as effective as the grey over two miles? Without a doubt, he’d be in the Turners over 2m4f if that race still existed. A Grade 1 winning novice hurdler rated 8lb higher than Dan Skelton’s charge over hurdles, he too jumped Cheltenham very well when winning in December, and the runner-up Springwell Bay is now rated 154 after winning since so two big ticks there. Narrowly beaten by Handstands last time in sticky ground, where Nico was kind of looking after him with the spring in mind, even over two miles I’d expect him to improve on that effort. Can he give Nicky Henderson an eighth win in the race?
Touch Me Not is expected to make the pace but having been beaten by L’Eau Du Sud at Sandown by 3¾l (made a bad mistake at half-way though didn’t lose much momentum) and Majborough at Leopardstown by 9l, it’s hard to make an argument why he can cause an upset and many would rather see him in the Grand Annual instead. On a literal line through him, Majborough has over 5l in hand over L’Eau Du Sud.
More interesting of the two outsiders is Only By Night with her 7lb mares’ allowance, which Put The Kettle On took advantage of to win the 2020 Arkle. She would be half the odds (or even more) if running in the Mares’ Chase so this is a bold move from her connections but they know she is fully effective at 2m whereas 2m4f wasn’t a guarantee on Friday. A fine jumper and a big, scopey mare, she has taken off for going chasing.
Arkle Recent Winners
Arkle Pace Projection
Touch Me Not will probably unwittingly make the pace for Majborough, with the likes of L'Eau du Sud expected to play later. It's possible Nico tries to use Jango Baie's stamina and goes for home mid-race.
Arkle Chase Selection
In short, all markets including the Without-fav market look bang on so I can’t find an Arkle bet. Sorry! Better luck tomorrow!
Suggestion: No bet.
Matt's Tix Pix: Maj banker on A, with some 'just in case' C cover.
2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)
Previewed by Dave Renham.
The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and in these types of races I use past race trends at Cheltenham as an important part of my narrowing the field process.
This is a race where British trainers have dominated, with no Irish winner since Tony Martin’s Dun Doire in 2006. However, the Irish are targeting the race more than they have done in the past having had seven runners in 2022 and eight last year. This year there are five Irish-trained entries with Malina Girl the shortest priced at around the 12/1 mark.
Looking at the British challenge Lucinda Russell won the Ultima in 2022 and 2023 with Corach Rambler. Prior to that she saddled four other runners, priced 20/1, 28/1, 16/1 and 25/1, finishing 4th, 4th, 5th and 6th respectively. This time, she runs Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown. The O’Neill yard have had three wins and four placed runners from 25 starters although their last win was back in 2014. Their sole entry this year is Crebilly. David Pipe, who runs King Turgeon, has also enjoyed three winners as well as the runner up in 2022.
Time to dig into other past trends.
23 of the last 25 winners finished in the first six last time out (LTO), with the two wins from those 7th or worse coming at a cost of 163 runners.
From a market perspective 19 of the 25 winners came from the top five in the betting, including 11 of the last 12.
56% of all runners have been Irish-bred yet they have provided the winner 84% of the time (21 times). Irish-breds have outperformed all other countries of breeding in the place market, too, hitting 22% compared with 15%.
Other positives include a LTO market rank in the top four of the betting, and having one to three career chase wins.
Looking at weight carried there is a roughly even split between the top half of the weights and the bottom half.
Age wise seven- and eight-year-olds have provided 64% of the winners from 46% of the runners so there would be a marginal preference for those compared to other ages.
The two that tick all of the main trends boxes are The Changing Man and Broadway Boy.
The Changing Man easily won a weak-looking renewal of the Reynoldstown last time but, more importantly for me, his previous three runs when second each time came in top notch handicaps. Detractors could argue why should he suddenly break that run of seconds in handicaps, but it is hard to see him out of the frame.
Broadway Boy is well fancied by the stable and this has been the target. Yes, he does have a couple of negatives – the 0 from 32 stable record in the race (last 25 years), and his disappointing run last time at Cheltenham. However, the yard has rarely had fancied runners in this race (just three sent off at single figure odds) and there were valid excuses for his most recent poor run. His other Cheltenham form is excellent, comprising three wins, a second and a third from five other starts. He likes to race up with the pace and so should stay out of trouble.
While discussing run style this race has seen hold up horses as the most successful group in the past 25 years. However, in the more recent past the Ultima has seemingly started to favour prominent racers. The pace map is below.
The main competition for the lead with Broadway Boy looks likely to be in the shape of Myretown – hopefully they won’t take each other on too early.
Horses that join The Changing Man and Broadway Boy on my shortlist include Henry’s Friend. He ticks most of the trends and had a good win last time out. He jumps well and he should be close to the pace. Whistle Stop Tour also matches most of the trends and, as mentioned earlier, his trainer Lucinda Russell knows how to get her runners right for this one. A horse at a bigger price that I can see running well is Famous Bridge. He came fourth last year and, although 3lb higher now, his last run at Haydock was impressive albeit over further. With several bookies offering six places his price of around 18/1 offers each way punters an option.
My final piece of number-crunching is that, looking at the past 10 years, if backing all horses in the top five of the betting ‘blind’ one would have secured an ROI of 57% to SP and 78% to BSP. A good profit would have been achieved if backing all qualifiers to place on the exchange. You'll not be surprised, therefore, to see four of my shortlisted runners near the head of the market.
Ultima Recent Winners
Ultima Pace Projection
An even looking tempo overall, though a lot of perennially prominent racers may push things on from the start.
Ultima Handicap Chase Selection
Suggestion: Try Broadway Boy win only at 15/2
Matt's Tix Pix: A's and B's and not straying far from the top of the market.
The race which has changed complexion most since confirmations is the Mares’ Hurdle, starting with the supplementary entry of William Hill (Schweppes for those over 55) Hurdle winner Joyeuse, followed by a surprise (to many) switch for Lossiemouth, who we’d been told was definitely on track for the Champion Hurdle; and, at the last minute, Golden Ace, definitely on track for this according to Jeremy Scott, jumped into the Champion Hurdle instead.
All that to-ing and fro-ing means the ante-post betting needs treating with caution, and if you’re worried that your pre-confirmations pick is now drifting, that’s only to be expected thanks to the influence Lossiemouth will have on the market. Whether she will have the same impact in the race is the big question, and my gut instinct was that switching her was a sign that Willie Mullins wasn’t happy enough with her wellbeing to think she could win or run well in a Champion Hurdle. If that’s the case it could be argued that she is too short, at around 4/6, for this race. Whatever race you’re running in at the Festival, you can’t afford to be short of your peak even if the ratings suggest otherwise.
The counterpoint to the above argument was put forward by Ruby Walsh on Paddy Power’s FTHM podcast on Sunday when he said the switch was simply a case of Paul Townend wanting to ride Lossiemouth. Had she run in the Champion, Townend would have ridden State Man, but he’d also rather ride Lossiemouth than Jade de Grugy in this race and hence the decision was made to switch target. You don’t have to believe that story, but it’s there for you to mull over in any case, having implications for the chances of both Lossiemouth and the original ante-post favourite.
Aside from the argument as to her wellbeing and how a heavy fall at Leopardstown last time will have affected her, there is also the debate about what Lossiemouth achieved 12 months ago. Beating Telmesomethinggirl, Hispanic Moon and Lantry Lady (beaten a total of 169 lengths in their four completed starts since) is not the performance it was cracked up to be at the time. She is a grand mare, but definitely a little overrated in some quarters, and her run behind Constitution Hill at Kempton is a fair guide to her ability. A repeat of that might be just enough to win this, but she doesn’t really appeal at her odds-on quote.
Jade de Grugy has undeniable form claims having won a Grade 1 as a novice, and she was visually impressive in winning the Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown on her belated return. I think there’s an element of recency bias in the way she’s been catapulted to the head of the market, and she has been shunned by Paul Townend which is hardly a boost to backers’ confidence. She is still a trifle short in the betting on balance based on the generic drift in the field when Lossiemouth was declared, although she may get bigger on the day. On the other hand, it’s not easy to make a strong case for the same connections’ Gala Marceau, who was disappointing at Warwick behind Royale Margaux, with a blunder two out incidental in the grand scheme.
Joyeuse was supplemented for this after winning the William Hill Hurdle impressively off a mark of 123, but even if you take the view she had a stone in hand that day she would still have something to find at this level, and it should be borne in mind that she had no other options at Cheltenham having failed to qualify for the handicaps.
July Flower has shown smart form in France, with the pick of her efforts a third in the French Champion Hurdle behind Losange Bleu and Hewick last May. She’s disappointed in two UK starts, pulling too hard, but settled better when winning on her return for Henry de Bromhead in the Grade 3 Kerrymount Mares’ Hurdle over an extended 2m3f at Leopardstown in late December, beating Kala Conti and Jetara by 4 lengths and 16 lengths, respectively.
July Flower was well ridden to score in the Kerrymount, Rachael Blackmore sitting a little way off the strong pace set by Lot of Joy and Jetara before closing up from halfway and expending her energy more efficiently than the leaders. Kala Conti was closer to that pace and made her bid for home earlier than ideal but was still only four lengths adrift of July Flower in second at the line. Kala Conti was conceding 5lb to the winner on the day, and I would rate her higher on the figures for that contest, as would most conventional handicappers.
The Leopardstown form looked good at the time and has been franked by subsequent black-type wins for Jetara and World of Fortunes, while Lot of Joy, beaten 48 lengths there, finished much closer to Jade de Grugy in the Quevega last month.
Mares' Hurdle Recent Winners
Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection
No obvious pace angle and it might be that Lossiemouth makes her own running to keep it simple and safe.
Mares' Hurdle Selection
If there is one mare who is unexposed and capable of improvement at this trip, it’s KALA CONTI, who was racing beyond 2m for the first time in the Kerrymount and arguably produced a career-best effort, although it’s worth pointing out that her defeat of Kargese and Nurburgring in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown last season is a pretty warm piece of form, as is finishing within half a length of Majborough in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at the same track 13 months ago. Or even a second-place finish behind the much-vaunted Anzadam when carrying a 5lb penalty in the Grade 3 Willowwarm Hurdle earlier this season.
Gordon Elliott has not been shouting Kala Conti from the rooftops, but her form credentials are there in plain sight, and her price has consistently failed to reflect those claims, perhaps because she was expected in some quarters to head to the Coral Cup. At one stage, July Flower was 5/1 for this while Kala Conti was 25/1 and while the differential is smaller now, I would argue strongly that it’s Kala Conti who should be the shorter price of the pair. As such, she represents perhaps the best each-way value of the week in the Championship and quasi-championship races at the meeting.
Suggestion: Back Kala Conti each way at around 16/1.
Matt's Tix Pix: Lossie and Jade on A, plus a few B's here in search of a result, I think.
The highlight on day one is unquestionably the Champion Hurdle and, for what it lacks in quantity of runners, it more than compensates through their sheer quality. The last two winners of the race return and will be joined by a mare in receipt of seven pounds and who put up arguably the performance of the season. Let's get to the details.
The 2024 winner was State Man, a first since 2016 for Willie Mullins, and he defends his crown after a somewhat middling campaign by his own lofty standards. A narrow defeat to Brighterdaysahead on seasonal debut was perfectly reasonable and promised a step forward next time. However, while that first to second run improvement has been a feature of Mullins' top class team this term, State Man was thumped by 31 lengths at the hooves of the same mare when they reacquainted in the Neville Hotels Hurdle (G1). Between the pair, a length and a quarter ahead of State Man, was 10-year-old (now 11) Winter Fog, sent off at 66/1; and only a length and a half behind State Man was 200/1 shot Fils d'Oudairies.
The winning time was good but not great, and that all leads to me being pretty suspicious of the merit of the winner's performance: like the race time, I feel it was good but not great. Could it have been very tacky ground that day, favouring those on the speed and perhaps conditions State Man hated? Or was State Man just bang out of sorts. It's a stretch to believe that both horses ran their races and the mare's winning margin extended by more than thirty lengths!
Obviously, if you take that form literally - and at least one extremely good judge and former multiple top jockey at the meeting is doing just that - then you'd have to think Brighterdaysahead wins the Champion Hurdle. She had a pacemaker there and the same horse, King Of Kingsfield, will do her donkey work again here. I wasn't overly impressed with her jumping that day and we've not seen her since - though that's fairly typical for Gordon Elliott to skip the Dublin Racing Festival, the obvious stepping stone between Christmas and Cheltenham.
State Man did win last time, at the DRF, where he beat Daddy Long Legs (who?) by six lengths after Lossiemouth paid for a poor jump at top speed when she and State Man were having at it from the get go. The winner was entitled to tire after his early exertions, and his score would be considered hugely inefficient in sectional terms; still, sometimes you gotta win ugly if you wanna win (and sometimes you gotta write ugly if you wanna entertain - yuk). The victory did little for the winner's Champion Hurdle prospects bar knock a rival out of the reckoning and perhaps restore a touch of his shattered confidence. He's not been the same Man this season.
It's high time we introduced the top billing, Constitution Hill. Forced to miss last year's Blue Riband due to the ailment that struck the Seven Barrows yard of trainer Nicky Henderson, he's back and bouncing again this term. There's been plenty of chat about how he's 'better than ever', a claim which is both highly likely untrue and also completely moot. His form in winning four times, three of them Grade 1's, since his 2023 Champion Hurdle success has been at a notably lower - in the order of ten to 15 pounds - level. And yet it's still better than Brighterdaysahead's, barring that one 'too good to be true?' run.
Henderson's record in the race is peerless: his nine wins bests Willie's five, with Elliott yet to register. Moreover, Henderson had won four of the seven renewals between Annie Power's 2016 triumph and State Man's last year for the Closutton squad - a race in which the Brit had the clear favourite before his withdrawal.
This season Constitution Hill ran Lossiemouth off her legs early in Kempton's G1 Christmas Hurdle before that mare battled on gamely to go down by only two and a half lengths; and he then showed up for the G2 International Hurdle on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham. That was essentially a regulation canter but proved his wellbeing, a sentiment affirmed by an excellent public workout at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. The 'vibes' then are strong with this one.
Burdett Road has been nine lengths behind Constitution Hill (bad blunder at the second last stopped him being a little closer) and was apparently outstayed by Golden Ace in the Kingwell last time. That mare, herself a Cheltenham Festival winner twelve months ago when beating Brighterdaysahead no less in a muddling Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle, will need to travel at a much quicker tempo this time - but she's at least showing better form as the spring arrives. Her greater proven stamina ought to see her finish in front of Burdett Road again.
The rest are very unlikely to be good enough and any of them winning would be one of the shocks of all time at the Festival.
Champion Hurdle Recent Winners
Champion Hurdle Pace Projection
A slightly misleading pace map as King Of Kingsfield is expected to push the pace for ownermate Brighterdaysahead. Burdett Road is a customary forward goer, too.
Champion Hurdle Selection
A small field race between classy but largely exposed horses does not generally a value proposition make. This comes down to how highly you rate the performance of Brighterdaysahead in battering several of her Champion Hurdle rivals, notably State Man, in that Christmas Grade 1 at Leopardstown. Anything like a literal interpretation means she's the play for you. But she's not the play for me, except with Tote's generous 'money back as a free bet if second' offer. I can't have State Man on his form this season and will consider it one of Willie's finest achievements if he can pull this rabbit out of the hat.
No, it's Constitution Hill for me. I respect the mare, especially in receipt of 7lb (a concession I don't particularly respect in G1's), but I want to see the former heavyweight champion reclaim his belt. Betting wise he's not my sort of price but I have included him in a few 'muggy' accas.
Suggestion: Bet Brighterdaysahead with the tote 'money back as free bet if second' concession. I don't think she'll beat Constitution Hill, but if I've underestimated that demolition job last time then she looks just about a free hit against Constitution Hill. Call it an emotional hedge if you like: my heart is all in on Connie.
4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Hallgarten & Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, to you and me) is a tough race for juveniles, usually completely different from anything they’ve contested before.
One of the key attributes is experience. Whilst experience in lots of hurdles race helps, it can also show your hand to the handicapper. In France there is a three-year-old season in the spring and horses benefit from experience over time there. They learn at home as well as at the track and the early start horses get in France can be a big advantage.
Horses that began in National Hunt races in France are 8/88 for +59 (66% ROI).
Murciahas a good profile, then, having begun in France more than a year ago and racing four times by early June, after which she was sold to join Willie Mullins.
Her first run for Willie was in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown at Christmas where she bombed out, beaten 22l in 8th. However, Jeff Kidder (2021 Fred Winter winner) was last of seven, and Aramax (2020 winner) was well beaten when falling in that Grade 2.
Juveniles, even more so than older novices, can improve hugely through the season - or regress as they develop physically. It’s always as well to be cautious about form in the autumn and at Christmas, as it often gets reversed come the spring.
Not many Festival handicaps have a key trial as the conditions races often do. However, there is a rated hurdle at Naas in February which was run for the first time in 2017 and is building up a strong profile as a springboard for Fred Winter winners.
The previous eight renewals of the Naas race have produced four Fred Winter winners, three of which were doing the double. Overall, runners from it are 4/17 +26 (153% ROI), with 3 of the 13 losers placed. In addition, Lark In The Mornin was declared at Naas last year but became a non-runner on the day, before winning the Fred Winter. This very much looks the race used by top Irish yards to prep for the Fred Winter.
This year Murcia looked green and her jumping was novicey but she finished really strongly to be beaten just a neck. She will have to be much more professional if she is to cope with the hurly-burly of a 22-runner juvenile handicap where they tend to go a strong gallop for the quality of the race. There’s the risk that it’s all too much for her and she bombs out but the reward is that she is open to stacks of improvement if she can put it all together – connections seem to think she’ll love the drying ground.
Those four Naas runners won the Fred Winter off 125 (Jazzy Matty), 137 (Brazil), 138 (Aramax) & 139 (Band Of Outlaws). Murcia has a mark of 133 in Ireland and the BHA handicapper has added 3lb so she’ll be running off 136, very similar to three of the previous winners from the Naas trial.
Fred Winter Hurdle Recent Winners
Fred Winter Hurdle Pace Projection
Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle selection
Suggestion: Back Murcia at 10/1 or bigger (Matt Tombs)
Matt's Tix Pix: Five on A, and five more on B. At least!
5.20 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)
Previewed by David Massey.
Well, it’s a new look for an old Festival favourite this year, with the National Hunt Chase now a 0-145 handicap and not restricted to amateur riders anymore. As such, trends are hardly worth bothering with, although a trainer that’s had a few placed in the race before - David Pipe - has one here that just about heads my list up.
Gericault Roque has the look of one laid out for this. It seems almost ridiculous that a horse that finished second to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima is still a novice, but here we are, seven runs later and no wins. But you can hardly argue with his form in big-field handicaps; second in a Mandarin, second in a Classic at Warwick, third in a Coral Gold Cup. It all stacks up.
He came back from a 26-month absence to run really well at Windsor 53 days ago. I was there on the day, my paddock notes reading “looks okay given the long absence, will come on but by no means unfit” and the way he ran in the race suggested those observations were close to the mark. He faded out of contention from two out but was far from disgraced in getting beaten less than ten lengths at the finish.
Wisely given time to recover from that run, he has the right profile for this and, with an extra place on offer, he looks a very solid each-way selection.
The winner of that Windsor race, Herakles Westwood, would be my back-up selection at the current prices. He’s always felt to me like a thorough stayer and, after the Windsor win, went to Newbury and confirmed that opinion by staying on all the way to the line over three miles, finishing third. I think a marathon distance could be right up his street, Harry Cobden in the saddle only a positive. I’ll throw a few quid at the forecast as well, just in case that’s the piece of form that unlocks this puzzle.
As far as the Irish contingent go, the race that the market believes will throw up the winner is the beginners' chase at Navan in January, won by the classy Three Card Brag with Captain Cody finishing third and Now Is The Hour fourth. Both runners headed here are unexposed over fences and, for a horse that was a Grade 2 winner over the smaller obstacles, Now Is The Hour looks to have a very workable mark off 139, with similar comments applying to Captain Cody off 140 (also a Grade 2 hurdles winner) - but I’m not telling you anything the market isn’t. Both will have been readied for this, and I couldn’t put you off.
November winner Transmission is another obvious one, with Neil Mulholland booking Patrick Mullins again (you did know you don’t have to book an amateur didn’t you, Neil?) but again, the market has him well found.
National Hunt Chase Recent Winners
NB This race was a non-handicap before 2025.
National Hunt Chase Pace Projection
National Hunt Chase Selection
The more I look at the race the more I think Gericault Roque is pretty much nailed on to run a good race, and he's my main selection. I also think he’ll be well-backed on the day, going off single figures, so anything 10/1 and up looks worth taking.
Selection: Back Gericault Roque each way at 10/1
*
Those are the seven head scratchers on Day 1 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and how our assembled panel of experts see them. As with punting more generally, it's got to be fun first, profit second (the two not being mutually exclusive, of course); so if you've enjoyed the read, you're a winner already!
Stay lucky
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/ConstitutionHill_UnibetHurdle_CheltenhamTrialsDay2025.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-10 07:26:452025-03-10 17:38:32Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day One Preview, Tips
geegeez.co.uk uses cookies to improve your experience. We assume that's OK, but you may opt-out from the settings. Cookie settingsACCEPT
Privacy & Cookies Policy
Privacy Overview
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.
£4 Discount With Promo Code: RTCFBG26
The roar of the crowd. The excitement palpable. Jumpers for goalposts, hmm? Yes it's a little trite but that collective exhortation as the tapes rise really is a thing, and a wonderful one at that. We're off for the first of 28 top class equine ding-dongs. As Lesley Phillips might have said, ding dong indeed!
