Detailed day-by-day horse racing reports and information on the Cheltenham Festival, available from Geegeez. Read about the horses, races and events here.

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Four Preview, Tips

/in , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Four Preview, Tips

We're onto Give Back Friday, which is bad news if you're already in negative equity. Traditionally the hardest of the four days, this year Day Four looks as fiendish as ever. Still, where there's light there's hope...

1.30 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

Time was when the Triumph Hurdle, for four-year-old novices only, could throw up a shock or three. And, in 2019, the winner was returned 20/1 in spite of being unbeaten in one over hurdles and trained by Nicky Henderson; a year later, in 2020, the winner was 12/1 even though she was unbeaten in one over hurdles and trained by Willie Mullins. Go figure.

With the advent of the Fred Winter (Boodles) handicap for the same age group, Triumph fields tend to be a little thinner these days: the average field was 26 between 1997 and 2004, compared with 16 since 2005, the first year of Fred Boodles. In the past five years, the average field size has been just eleven runners. Yet this time, we have 15, in a few cases as a result of the Boodles over-subscribing and, therefore, the dreaded 'social runners'.

In recent seasons, only Henderson (twice) and Philip Hobbs have managed to repel the Irish raiders, and this season looks virtually certain to result in another 'away win'. That man Willie - Triumph winner in 2020 and 2022 - and before he was a 'thing' in 2002, with Scolardy, ridden by Charlie Swan - has the market in a half nelson this time, courtesy of his t'riffic triumvirate of Lossiemouth, Blood Destiny and Gala Marceau, along with four others!

Lossiemouth was considered the pick of the Closutton squad, even though she finished behind Gala Marceau in the key prep, the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. There, she endured a difficult transit and Gala scampered clear. There's no doubt Lossie was unlucky in second, and there's little doubt that the margin would have been narrower with a clear passage for her; but the market has them further apart than perhaps they ought to be. Gala Marceau was having her first run away from France when a seven length second to Lossiemouth the time before, and she would have narrowed that margin the last day regardless of clear or troubled trips in behind. She has more experience and could improve again.

Blood Destiny is harder to fathom, having not yet faced Graded company. He was second to Bo Zenith, whose limitations have since been exposed, in France before Willie sent him unbeaten in two. He won his maiden by five lengths in a field of 20 from Sir Allen (two from two since), and then sauntered 18 lengths clear of 131-rated Common Practice and subsequent Adonis Hurdle winner, Nusret.

Still Willie has more. Zenta won a Listed hurdle at Auteuil, jumping flawlessly, and was again brilliant - apart from annihilating the flights in the straight! - at Fairyhouse (Grade 3) last time. I wonder if the sun was in their eyes that day because those blemishes were out of character with everything else she'd done. Mullins suggested it might have been because she was in front, in which case she'll be ridden patiently in the Triumph. She has a similar profile to Burning Victory and is a big price in that context.

Milton Harris has enjoyed an incredible renaissance in the past two seasons, plenty of which is down to his inspired campaigning of juvenile hurdlers. The flag-bearer in that discipline this term is Scriptwriter, bought off the flat from Aidan O'Brien and a winner of his first two hurdle races. That double included the Grade 2 Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle here; but he's since run a close second to Comfort Zone - again at Cheltenham - and, more concerningly, was thumped in the Adonis. Perhaps that more speed-favouring hurdle track did for him, or maybe he was feeling the effects of some hard races; either way, he's now a precarious proposition in this company.

The rest don't look good enough, though Je Garde is a total unknown after a debut third at Auteuil. The winner has won her two starts since, and the runner up won next time, too, all in and around Paris, so the form - in French terms at least - stacks up.

Triumph Hurdle Pace Map

Not one to take too literally with the limited amount of form on the table; but it would be wrong-headed to think that (at least) one of the Willie's won't go to the front. It might be Blood Destiny, but not necessarily.

Triumph Hurdle Selection

This is a Willie cartel. It's not a question of whether he wins but with which of his many options he does so. Lossiemouth and Gala Marceau should be in close proximity to each other, while Zenta and especially Blood Destiny are unknowns at this level and could be better or, more probably, worse than the G1 proven pair. Lossiemouth is the most solid and probably ought to be favourite on track performances; but obviously the yard has a line on the perceived hierarchy.

Suggestion: Tricasts or trifectas with Lossiemouth/Gala Marceau, and Blood Destiny/Zenta, might be a way to get almost everything right about the race and still lose money!

*

2.10 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)

For such an open handicap, this race has been dominated by a handful of trainers in recent times. Paul Nicholls bagged four of them between 2004 and 2014, Dan Skelton - Nicholls' protégé - claimed three of his own between 2016 and 2019, and, of course, Willie Mullins has his fingerprints all over this trophy as well: six wins since 2010. That's 13 of the last 19 County Hurdles shared among them.

If we, sensibly, extend the sequence to 20 races to render it slightly less arbitrary, we will note that six of the remaining seven renewals were won by another Irish trainer. So, in the past two decades, the score reads W Mullins 6, rest of Ireland 6, P Nicholls 4, D Skelton 3, rest of UK 1. This is a handicap that has been contested by 24+ horses in all but one of those 20 years. Wow.

My shortlist is Sharjah, Hunters Yarn, Path d'Oroux and Pembroke.

Sharjah is top weight, and that's because he has been there, seen it, done it. He's in the Arctic Fire mould of Willie County winners, as a dual Grade 1 winner just 15 months ago. Though he might be a touch below that level now, he's still run close to State Man twice this season before a lovely trial for this at Gowran last time. He's going to cruise all over these through the race and then it's a question of whether either of age and/or weight tell in the closing stages. They might not.

Willie also saddles Hunters Yarn, a high class novice and winner of his last two hurdling starts, most recently a Listed novice at Navan. He bolted up there, in a small field, and was 13 lengths too good for two dozen rivals on his previous run; but this is a significant step up in class. The fact he's handled a big field is a plus and I have already backed him; I'd be less attracted by his current odds from a value perspective, however.

Lower down the field is the potentially very kindly weighted Path d'Oroux. This fellow won a bumper and a maiden hurdle, both in huge fields, before his sights were raised to Grade 1 novice company. He pulled up behind Supreme winner Marine Nationale on his first attempt, and was then fourth to Supreme runner up Facile Vega on his second G1 try, beaten far enough. An easy score in lesser grade since will have boosted confidence and he might be a 'lurker' for his shrewd trainer, Gavin Cromwell.

The best of the British could very well be the Dan Skelton-trained Pembroke, whose profile screams County Hurdle. A lightly raced novice having won his bumper this time last year, he was seventh to Grade 1-winning Tahmuras on seasonal bow. He then easily won a pair of novice hurdles, one in a big field, before running second in the Grade 2 novice on Trials day over two and a half miles. That will have been a perfect prep for this and, if anyone can from this side of the water, Dan can, with easily the best race record in the past decade.

Many more can win, natch, including Filey Bay, an Emmet Mullins-trained runner who has done everything he can to show the UK handicapper he's not as good as he actually is, while still winning twice and running second in the Betfair Hurdle last time. He also has a lovely racing weight but a commensurately skinny quote.

County Hurdle Pace Map

The Chris Gordon pair may be to the fore, as might something from the Mullins quartet; and so might a number of others. This is unlikely to be a pedestrian gallop.

County Hurdle Selection

The more I look at this, the more I think old boy Sharjah (8/1) still retains more than enough talent to overcome his weight allocation. He has no secrets from the handicapper, but sometimes the good ones just win, don't they? And I think 9/1 Pembroke is sure to run well, even allowing for the hard time UK novices have had against their Irish counterparts. He's with the right man, and has a featherweight to carry. I'll probably have a small bit of 16/1 Path d'Oroux as well. Keep the extra place concessions in mind again here.

Suggestion: Back a few each way with extra places, perhaps including some/all of the above trio.

*

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

The Spuds Race. Ten years ago, At Fishers Cross won at a starting price of 11/8. Since then, eight winners have returned a double figure SP, including 50/1 and 33/1 twice. Willie Mullins has had winners at 16/1 and, last year, 18/1 since 2017. It's that sort of a race.

There are lots of credible horses at the top of the market, notably another Emmet green and golder, Corbetts Cross (who did remarkably well to win over two miles last time), Hiddenvalley Lake and Favori de Champdou. Literally nobody will be shocked if one of those, or Three Card Brag or Embassy Gardens, wins. But that's not the way to play this race, is it?

We need to ask, and answer, the question, "why do so many big prices win the Spuds?"

My contention - and a lot of other peoples', also - is that it is to do with the juxtaposition of pace between the trial races and the Albert Bartlett itself. In plain English, five runner 2m6f Grade 2's do not translate well to 16-runner three mile Grade 1's. In the latter, they go faster and demand less class but more stamina and steel.

A quick look at some of those big priced winners reveals an identikit of sorts:

The Nice Guy was stepping up more than half a mile in trip after winning a huge field maiden
Vanillier was another big field maiden scorer before getting outpaced in an 8 runner race. Was wrong in G1 before Cheltenham
Minella Indo was 3rd in small field maiden and 2nd in a small field Grade 3 (3m) before relishing this stiffer test
Kilbricken Storm won at Cheltenham (3m) before getting outpaced/not handling heavy in G1 (2m5f)
Penhill had actually won a small field 3m G2 on his prior start and was just a big price on the day
Very Wood was stepping up to 3m for the first time having finished 3rd of 3 over 2m4f

Small field preps, up in trip seem to be the main clues. Let's see if that can be applied to anything at a bumper price this year...

Sandor Clegane fits the bill but is too short a price having run third in a G1 last time. I'm unashamedly swinging at the big odds here and obviously that probably means a losing bet; but the risk/reward ratio is in our favour based on the nature of the beast.

Gigginstown-owned and Gordon Elliott-trained is Search For Glory, keeping on in third behind subsequent G1 winner and Ballymore fourth Good Land over 2m4f; and then keeping on for a much closer third over 3m in a five-runner Grade 3 last time. He's very interesting for this assignment.

Affordale Fury is trained by Noel Meade, who saddled 33/1 Very Wood in 2014. A winner from the front in a 14-runner maiden (2m6f, soft), he then fell at the last when contesting in a 2m4f G3. Most recently he was outpaced all the way in the G1 Lawlor's of Naas (2m4f, soft) but made some minor headway. I'm not sure that's good enough even when looking through the big-priced prism.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Expect many fewer than the number which start to finish. There is plenty of pace on, and it will be the tough and hardy blokes over the classy but flimsy snowflakes - if you'll pardon the phrase - that prevail.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection

The horses I'm interested in are all far less credible winners on the evidence of the form book, so if you're following me you need to know they might bomb out completely. In that scenario, win only is the way to go (and we can cry together later when rounding out the minor podium positions!!) - and I'm going with Search For Glory and Sandor Clegane against the top of the market. This is a race where it feels like we'll have a bit of a chance with our windmill-tilting; at least, it often is that way.

Suggestion: Back something that has been getting outpaced in smaller fields and/or over shorter trips. 25/1 Search For Glory and 14/1 Sandor Clegane are my guesses against the field. Lots of more obvious horses, so this is a bet where I'm happy to wave goodbye to the tenner.

*

3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)

This is the big one, the Blue Riband. The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the pinnacle of the sport and is always a fantastic spectacle, though winner-finding can be tricky.

This season, one horse towers above the rest in terms of his chance; that horse is Galopin Des Champs. Trained by, you guessed it, Willie Mullins, Galopin Des Champs won the 2021 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle and would have cruised home in the Turners Novices' Chase a year ago but for falling at the last. Since then, he's won three straight Grade 1's, a novice at Fairyhouse's Easter fixture and two opens this campaign, the John Durkan and the Irish Gold Cup.

The margin of victory in that trio of G1 was scores was 18L, 13L and 8L, and he appeared to answer the stamina question with his three mile win last time - partially, at least. The Gold Cup is, of course, three miles two and a half furlongs, and that's another quarter mile and more than he's gone to date. So will he stay? That's simply not an easy question to answer. His sire, Timos, has had no other runners in Britain or Ireland; himself a German-bred (by Sholokhov out of a Surumu mare), he raced in lower Group class on the level at ten to twelve furlongs. His dam, Manon Des Champs, was by a US-bred stallion, Marchand De Sable, who won a heavy ground ten furlong Group 1 as a two-year-old. Helpful? Not really, I know. Where I get to is that there must be at least some chance he won't stay in a truly-run Gold Cup, especially if the going is on the softer side. But if stamina holds, he is the clear form pick.

There are pro's and con's with all his main market rivals. Let's consider a few, starting with A Plus Tard. The pro's are that he won last year's Gold Cup and was second in the race a year prior; thus, we know he stays, we know he handles the track and we know he has the class to win the race. But the con is a big one: he has only been seen once since this day last year, when bombing out completely in the Betfair Chase, a race in which he'd pulverised his opposition twelve months earlier. Add to that the fact that he was due to run at Christmas - his trainer related to attheraces.com, "he got a bang that ruled him out of Christmas, so we said back in January that we’d go straight to the Gold Cup". You've got to take a lot on trust to side with A Plus Tard at this stage against something of a changing of the guard - some high class second and third season chasers.

One such second season chaser is Bravemansgame, winner of the King George in dominating fashion at Christmas. A look at the Paul Nicholls-trained star's form profile renders most of the names he's been called grossly unfair: as well as that G1 King George, he's won the G1 Challow Hurdle, the G1 Feltham/Kauto Star, and the G2 Charlie Hall. His sole Cheltenham run was at the 2021 Festival when he was third to Bob Olinger in the Ballymore. He tried to make all that day in a bigger field than he's typically faced, and was spent in the run to the line. This season, he's raced more patiently under Harry Cobden, and followed a gutsy win at Wetherby with a classy one at Kempton.

But is he a "flat track bully"? Yuk, it's such a horrible phrase - I apologise for using it; and I only do it to counter the barb. As you can see from the image below, in the 'Profile' section, he's only run on flat tracks over fences - that means he can't handle undulating tracks no more than a horse encountering different underfoot for the first time.

 

What it does mean is we don't know whether he'll handle it or not; but what we do know is that he has excellent form this season, stays pretty well, jumps well, has class and can be ridden wherever. Given his odds, that's a lot of positives on which to take a chance that he might not handle the track.

This time last year, Noble Yeats was finishing slightly better than midfield in the Ultima Handicap Chase, which is not a well known springboard to the Gold Cup! Of course, he followed that effort up with a dazzling 50/1 triumph in the Grand National. It didn't pan out first time this season at Auteuil but he then doubled up at Wexford (Listed) and Aintree (Grade 2) before running a fair third in the G2 Cotswold Chase in late January. That looked every inch a prep - think last season's Ultima - for his spring targets, which are this race and a defence of his National title. Noble Yeats obviously stays well and he handles any ground, too. It could reasonable be argued that his best form is on flat tracks, too, though.

Stattler was a staying-on second to Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup and won the NH Chase at last year's Festival; so he is another second season chaser and has stamina in abundance. He has also demonstrated his aptitude for the track, albeit Old and New courses here are different tests; and he seems to handle most terrain. This season he was just pipped in a sprint (relative, it was heavy ground) finish over 2m6f before beating all bar GdC last time: his is a nicely progressive profile.

Running here rather than the Ryanair, where Conflated fell a year ago when likely booked for second, is a nod to the regard in which his trainer, Gordon Elliott, holds the horse. A look at his form implies this is the right race: a pair of three-mile Grade 1 wins at Leopardstown have been supported by a silver medal in the 3m1f G1 Aintree Bowl, and it's not impossible this longer trip will eke out a couple of pounds further improvement. If it does, he's another who figures on the premises.

Lucinda Russell trains the hugely popular second season chaser Ahoy Senor, second in last year's Brown Advisory Novices' Chase and winner of the G1 Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree. This campaign started on the back foot with a hard race in the Charlie Hall, the mark from which was probably left when he ran flat enough at Aintree and Kempton subsequently; but he got right back on track last time when beating Noble Yeats and Sounds Russian in the Cotswold Chase. The problem is that Sounds Russian, though progressive, is some way short of the ability required here; and, further, that Noble Yeats is expected to be a different proposition fitness-wise this time. All that said, Ahoy Senor does have a chance to control the pace and, if doing that easily, may be difficult to shake off in the finish.

One of the great under-rated horses of recent Cheltenham Festivals is Minella Indo. Winner of the 2019 Albert Bartlett (at 50/1!), he showed that was no fluke when running up to Champ in a memorable (for all the wrong reasons if you, like me, punted him) 2020 RSA Chase. Then, at the top table, he won the Gold Cup in 2021 from A Plus Tard, and got closest to that one last year - granted, that was no closer than 15 lengths. He's only had one run this season, a win, in the previously referenced New Year's Day Chase at Tramore. Trainer Henry de Bromhead is calling his quiet lead up "the best preparation he's ever had for Cheltenham" and, even aged 10, his Fez form of 1212 commands plenty of respect: he's been here and got the T-shirt, so to speak.

Two and a half lengths behind Minella Indo last year, and nearly twenty back from A Plus Tard, was Protektorat. On the face of it, he has a mountain to climb; but he was only seven then and one year more mature now - a good age for a Gold Cup challenger. He barrelled clear of the Betfair Chase field in November, scoring by eleven lengths, but was behind Ahoy Senor, Sounds Russian and Noble Yeats in the Cotswold Chase on his sole run since. He was sent off 5/4 favourite there, so presumably was fit enough; nevertheless, he's sure to come on for the run and is another on a very long list of place possibles and, on the Haydock run, not out of it for the win.

There are others with good form that doesn't quite match up to a Gold Cup. Royale Pagaille will again have his followers - all of them rain dancers - and he may again lollop into fourth or fifth; but he's unlikely to get the pace setup, though he may get the deep ground, he needs to outstay smarter oppo.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

It might be that Ahoy Senor gets a free hit on the lead, which would be optimal for his legion supporters. There is a group of others who like to race handily and it's no more than evens that something from that cohort contests with the Senor.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection

A very tough race to weigh up. If you think Galopin Des Champs will definitely stay, there's your bet as he's looked a Rolls Royce for a couple of seasons. If you don't, or you want to bet something each way, it's trappier. You're asked to take a lot on trust with A Plus Tard, you have to assume Bravemansgame will handle Cheltenham's undulations, or you have to believe that the likes of Minella Indo and Royale Pagaille still retain sufficient verve to mix it with the kids.

Or you can just back Noble Yeats each way and see how close he gets.

Suggestion: Back 9/1 Noble Yeats each way with four or, preferably, five places.

*

4.10 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)

The hunter chase gold cup (small 'g', small 'c') and always a good - if sometimes faintly bonkers - watch. As with the Gold Cup itself, the previous renewal is often the best form guide. Twelve months ago, it was heartbreak for David Christie and Winged Leader as his notable lead was whittled to nothing a stride from the line and Billaway pipped him. Billaway himself was certainly not winning out of turn, having been second in 2020 and 2021. Although he's eleven now, that's more a positive in a race where the last eight winners were all aged ten or eleven and where there have been three back-to-back winners since 2012.

After Cheltenham last year, Billaway won a thriller against another rising star from the Christie yard, Vaucelet, but, on debut this season, he was thrashed by yet another Christie inmate, Ferns Lock. Since then, Willie Mullins' star hunter has somewhat unconvincingly despatched a lesser field. Though he always brings his 'A game' to Cheltenham, he arrived in slightly better nick the previous twice, I feel. He tends to race on the lead and there might be a little more contention for that this season, which could add a further challenge to his defence.

Vaucelet is the chosen one of Christie's three and, aged eight, would be the youngest winner since Salsify in 2013 (who had also won aged seven a year earlier). Based on his form, youth won't stop him and, as a winner over three and half miles in the Stratford Champion Hunter Chase late last spring, he ought not to fail for stamina either. He's progressive where Billaway might be slightly on the downgrade, the fine margin between them at Punchestown a year ago perhaps not enough in the champ's favour now.

The British challenge - historically strong, as shown by four of the past six winners - is headed up by Chris Barber's Famous Clermont. Another eight-year-old, he's sent the likes of Shantou Flyer and Envious Editor packing this season, including when romping to victory in the Walrus Hunter Chase, a high class contest in the sector run in February. Famous Clermont made a few errors in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham's April hunter chase meeting last year and was eventually pulled up (as the 6/5 favourite), and his continued propensity for a mistake is a niggle.

Paul Nicholls has won this four times since 2004, with Earthmover, Sleeping Night, and Pacha du Polder twice. Since PdP's last win, in 2018, Nicholls is 0/4, though Bob And Co failed to jump round as his sole representative in the past two seasons - at short prices both times. This year, the Ditcheat yard have Secret Investor as their main hope. Now eleven, all of his best form - both as a hunter and previously under Rules - was on decent ground, so the wet week in the run up may be a concern. Cat Tiger, for the same yard, handles softer terrain and, while seemingly a little out of form this term, he's been racing in Class 2 and 3 handicap chases under Rules. His 2nd of 23 in last year's Aintree Hunter Chase (2m6f) gives him a squeak if he stays this far.

Bob And Co is now with Harry Derham, Nicholls' former assistant and, if he can jump round, he'd be a place player even at the age of 12. But I don't like backing horses who fail to complete.

Meanwhile, former Gold Cup runner Chris's Dream has won two point to points recently and comes here in form. He has obvious back class but he didn't get home in the Gold Cup and has never won over this far. His last win of any description under Rules was more than three years ago.

One of the first questions in this race is often, "What's Jamie Codd riding?" Answer: The Storyteller. A former Festival winner on soft ground, his stamina for this longer shift is presumed rather than established; but we do know he handles the other conditions and represents the most robust of connections: Gordon Elliott still trains him.

Rocky's Howya is a bit of a 'wise guy' horse getting some love on the preview circuit. He's young - seven - and been bashing up his rivals in point to points to a fair level of form. But I feel he should be a bigger price: he's one for the guessers - which, in fairness, most of us are in this race, if not the other 27 at the Festival!

A couple to mention in the long grass are Dorking Cock, Mighty Stowaway and I K Brunel. Dorking Cock has form with Vaucelet that gives that one only a small edge over this bigger priced runner. It's possible - perhaps likely - that Vaucelet was under-cooked that day; and DC had previously been thumped by Billaway. Still, he stays and handles all ground. Mighty Stowaway was third last year and represents the top UK point yard of Alan Hill; he might just be regressing aged twelve now but he'll surely run better than his early season form. From the same yard and still on the ascendant in this sphere is I K Brunel. He was a 130-rated chaser last season for Olly Murphy and comfortably beat Not That Fuisse in a hunter chase last time. He probably wants quick ground.

Maybe the ground has come right for Shantou Flyer, a horse that loves it soft and stays very well. He's 13 now, which is probably too old, and he's ridden by Paul Nicholls' daughter, Olive, who will obviously have grown up around horses and be very well schooled.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase  Pace Map

Pinch of salt pace map because we don't have point form so these are Rules races only.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection

I hope Vaucelet wins, for connections of Winged Leader who was so cruelly denied on the line last year; but he's a short enough price. Billaway is an obvious horse to run close and is around 8/1 - he was the horse to pip the Leader last year, and has run 221 in this the past three years. In the longer grass, horses like The Storyteller and perhaps Shantou Flyer may still have enough gusto about them to hit the board.

Suggestion: Back 8/1 Billaway each way with extra places and you'll probably get close to the winner's enclosure and hopefully the payout window.

*

4.50 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)

The Festival is pretty much over for me at this point, I have to concede. I have little interest in the Mares' Chase and know I'm not good enough to handicap the Martin Pipe. So let's keep it brief...

Allegorie de Vassy is a classy mare, winner of all four races - two hurdles and two chases - since moving from France to Willie in Ireland. Her two fencing scores were in Grade 2's, the same level as this, and she bolted up on both heavy and yielding so there are no grounds for concern, as it were. She has jumped right on occasion which, given this is a left-handed track, would mean she concedes a few lengths at her obstacles potentially: that, clearly, is undesirable for all that she may have a few lengths in hand of the rest.

The obvious danger is Impervious, herself a winner of three straight, including in G2 and G3 the last twice. She handles soft very well and had the beating of Grand Annual runner up (should have won) Dinoblue by three lengths two back. She's tough and seems to stay well.

Jeremys Flame is tough and consistent, graduating this season from handicaps to win a Listed race at Huntingdon last time. She's nine though, a veteran of 29 races, and her form is not as compelling as the other pair. She just about fits on the pick of her ratings, however.

Magic Daze has to prove she staze - sorry, stays; and the rest, most notably last year's winner Elimay, need to revert to the pick of their back class to feature. Zambella does look like getting her optimal soft turf and 2m4f trip

Mares' Chase Pace Map

A good bit of pace on, which will test jumping. Allegorie de Vassy, Magic Daze and Zambella are expected to be front rank.

Mares' Chase Selection

This looks between the top two in the betting but they're not that far clear on ratings. What they do have is more scope than most of their rivals, and I think Impervious looks slightly better suited to the task, particularly with no reservations about her jumping (please don't let me have jinxed her jumping).

Suggestion: Back 5/2 Impervious to win, or retire to the bar and watch.

*

5.30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 4 1/2f)

To the lucky last. Erm. We're probably looking for a potential Grade 1 horse of the future. The alumni for this final race includes Sir Des Champs, Don Poli, Killultagh Vic, Galopin Des Champs and Banbridge. All those mentioned were Irish-trained, too. So that will be my starting point.

The top three in the betting are all defensively short at time of writing: around 5/1 each. They are Spanish Harlem, Imagine, and Cool Survivor.

Spanish Harlem cost €360,000 at the Arqana sale last summer, and he'll pocket... checks notes... £39,000 if he comes out on top here. More to the point, if he does win, he's probably smart enough to be contesting for bigger purses in the not too distant future. He's gone to Willie's and, though a hurdle winner in France already, has yet to add to that tally in three races since the stable switch. Of course that might very well be by design and, in any case, he's been running in small fields where his French victoire was against 16 rivals.

Gordon has the other two at the top, Imagine another to pepper the places without winning in recent efforts. He steps up from two miles to this two and a half, and was still entered in the three mile Albert Bartlett until 48 hour decs: clearly connections have few reservations about his stamina. He's been second in a Grade 3 and a Listed race since November and this will have been the plan.

Cool Survivor is also a Gordie runner and he, too, was in the Spuds before routing here. He finished fourth in a 2m6f G1 at the DRF last time and, prior to that, had won and been second (G3) over three miles. This step back in trip is a small niggle for a horse who, while doubtlessly having a splash of class, seems to stay very well.

At bigger prices, Firm Footings is in the same ownership and trainership (sic) as Imagine; he's had plenty of practice in defeat and steps up in grade for handicap debut with, like many others, the handibrake presumed off now. And Haxo is another Willie possible. Like all those previously mentioned, he's making his handicap bow after a couple of mark-securing efforts. His sixty length sixth in last year's Ballymore doesn't read as promisingly as some of the other form lines but he could still run well.

If there is to be a British winner, it's most likely to be from the barn of either Dan Skelton or Paul Nicholls. Skelton saddles two, Molly Olly's Wishes and West To The Bridge, but both are hooj prices and not remotely obvious winners even allowing for Dan being the UK Man in this setup. Dr Ditcheat has a credible contender in Irish Hill, a highly progressive handicapper that has won his last three, including most recently in a good Class 2 at Ascot. His problem is that we know pretty much what he is: he could improve three or four pounds but the winner here is probably going to find eight to ten pounds on its published rating.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map

Plenty of pace on, as you'd expect for a big field handicap hurdle at Cheltenham; perhaps more so because it's a conditional jockeys' race.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection

I obviously don't know. The market has been a fair guide to the Martin Pipe winner, with seven of the last nine sent off 12/1 or shorter (and one other at 14/1). I'd rather have a small interest in the top of the market than set fire to money lower down the lists; and I'll be a bit left and right by this point anyway - Friday is Brown Bear hostelry day!

I'm not trying to be too clever here, and I've had a quid each on 9/2 Spanish Harlem and 5/1 Imagine, win only. I told you I wasn't trying to be clever.

Suggestion: Back Spanish Harlem and/or Imagine, win only. Or bet something else. It's your life, after all 😉

*

And so, the end of a testing but glorious four days is in sight. Win or lose, it's a pleasure to fritter so many hours in the form book, and to share my cogitations with you: it's normally the case that I get many more points for the 'working out' than for scribbling down the correct answer. But, for weirdos like me (and maybe like you, too), the joy is almost all in the working out; in the puzzle. All the same, it obviously helps when we land on a fat one or two.

Be lucky.

Matt

2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 16th March 2023)

/in , /by

Each day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 14 of the last 18 winners had won at Cheltenham before. While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize we saw the Irish-trained Flooring Porter land in 2021 and 2022.

Thursday 16th March (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends

    1.30 - Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV

2022 Winner: BOB OLINGER 6/5
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachel Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 9 of the 12 winners were Irish-trained
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 12 winners
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • 11 of the last 12 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
  • 9 of the last 12 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
  • 10 of the last 12 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
  • 11 of the 12 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 12 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 10 of the last 12 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 12 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
  • 3 outright winning favourites in the last 8 runnings
  • 9 of the last 12 winners won last time out
  • 11 of the last 12 winners French (4) or Irish (7) bred (6 of last 7 Irish bred)
  • 5 of the last 12 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 6 of the last 12 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 8 of last 12 renewals
  • 7 of the last 8 winners rated 151+
  • 3 of the last 12 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
  • Gordon Elliott is 2 from 5
  • JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 4 winners

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • Just 3 British-trained winners so far (0-9)
  • The top-rated horse is just 1 from 12
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 4 winning favourites in 12 runnings (1 co)
  • 5 year-olds are 0-from-7
  • Just 2 of the last 12 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
  • Just 3 winners had been off for more than 54 days

    2.10 - Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2022 Winner: THIRD WIND (25/1)
Trainer – Hughie Morison
Jockey – Tom O’Brien
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

  • Irish have won the last 6 of last 7 runnings
  • Last 11 winners aged 8 or younger
  • Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
  • 9 of the last 15 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
  • 11 of the last 22 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 11 of the last 16 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-148
  • 11 of the last 18 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 6 of the last 10 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
  • 7 of the last 9 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 22 winners won their last race
  • 5 of the last 7 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 3 of the last 14 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
  • Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 7 winners
  • Respect horses with headgear (7 since 2000)
  • 6 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue-tie
  • 6 of the last 7 winners Irish-trained
  • 5 of the last 7 ran in the Leopardstown  Qualifier (Christmas)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
  • Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
  • 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
  • Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
  • Only 2 winning favourites in last 17 years
  • Just 1 winner in the last 40 aged 10+
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 9 runnings)
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 48

    2.40 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV

2022 Winner: ALLAHO (4/7 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 14 of the 18 winners had won at Cheltenham before
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • All 15 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 12 of the last 15 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 29)
  • The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
  • 15 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 14 of the last 15 winners were rated 161+
  • Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 5
  • 4 of the last 18 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
  • 14 of last 18 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • 11 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time headgear (3 from 11)
  • 9 of the last 15 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Last 9 winners were French-bred
  • All winners ran 5 or less times that season
  • 5 of the last 7 winners trained by Willie Mullins
  • Last 11 winner aged 9 or younger
  • The Irish have won 6 of the last 7 runnings

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • No winner aged 11 or older
  • Only 1 of the last 14 winners aged 10
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below
  • Just 6 of the last 15 won last time out
  • No winner was having their Festival debut

    3.30 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2022 Winner: FLOORING PORTER (4/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Danny Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish-trained   

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 18 won last time out
  • 7 of the last 9 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 20 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 30 of the last 33 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
  • 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 17 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
  • 8 of the last 21 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
  • 8 of the last 16 ran in the Cleeve Hurdle
  • 19 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 14 of the last 18 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race (Flooring Porter has won the last 2 runnings)
  • 17 of the last 26 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
  • 3 of the last 5 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
  • The Irish are have won the race just 5 times since 1995 (but have won the last 2)
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 74
  • Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 33 runningss
  • Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 62)

4.10 - Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV

2022 Winner: COOLE CODY (22/1)
Trainer – Evan Williams
Jockey – Adam Wedge
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

  • 28 of the last 35 winners were officially rated 140 or less
  • 11 of the last 14 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • 14 of the last 18 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
  • 11 of the last 19 winners had won a race in Feb or March
  • Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 25 runnings
  • 17 of the last 22 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 22 of the last 31 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 11 were having Festival debut)
  • 22 of the last 23 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 9 of the last 13 winners had 9 or less chase runs
  • 18 of the last 23 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
  • 6 of the last 7 winners were novices or second season chasers
  • 17 of the last 19 winners had raced that calendar year
  • Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
  • 4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
  • The last 4 winners had won at Cheltenham that season

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1982
  • Only 3 of the last 19 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
  • 4 winning favourites in the last 17 years
  • Only 5 of last 28 won with 11st+
  • Just 1 winner older than 9 in the last 11 years
  • Only 2 of the last 19 winners hadn’t run that calendar year

    4.50 – Jack De Bromhead Mares' (Dawn Run) Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV

2022 Winner: LOVE ENVOI
Trainer – Harry Fry
Jockey – Jonathan Burke
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

  • A new race (Just 7 renewals)
  • All 7 winners aged 5 or 6
  • 6 of the last 7 winners trained in Ireland
  • Favourites have won 3 of the 7 runnings
  • 4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
  • 4 of the 7 winners were French-bred
  • 4 of the last 7 winners were top or 2nd top rated
  • 5 of the last 7 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 5 of the last 7 past winners started their careers in France
  • 5 of the last 7 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
  • 4 of the 7 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 7 runnings (just 4 runners)
  • 4 of the 7 winners have been aged 5 years-old
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
  • Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 7 runnings

Negatives….

  • British trained runners are 1-from-49
  • British bred mares are 0-from-23
  • Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-10
  • JP McManus owned are 0-from-8
  • 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-20

    5.30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV

2022 Winner: CHAMBARD
Trainer – Venetia Williams
Jockey – Lucy Turner
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

  • Respect horse aged between 7-9 year-olds
  • 11 of the last 15 winners failed to win earlier that season
  • 10 of the last 11 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 10 of the last 11 winners rated between 137-143
  • 9 of the last 13 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
  • 9 of the last 13 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
  • 8 of the last 12 winners hadn’t win that season
    10 of the last 14 winners ran in February
  • Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 19 of the last 23 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 8 of the last 12 winners wore headgear
  • 11 of the last 14 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 14 winners
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
  • Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (3 of the last 11)
  • 18 of the last 20 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

  • Just 5 Irish winners in last 39 years (but have won 5 of the last 9)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 24
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 1 from 74 since 2005
  • Jus 2 of the last 18 winners aged 10+
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 3 from 102 since 2009
  • Just 2 of the last 20 winners won last time out

 

 

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

 

2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 17th March 2023)

/in , /by

Each day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Onto 'DAY FOUR' and it's Gold Cup Day - did you know, all of the last 20 Gold Cup winners were aged 9 or younger?

Friday 17th March 2023 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends

    1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV

2022 Winner: VAUBAN (6/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses…..

  • 23 of the last 29 winners won last time out
  • 9 of the last 14 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • Irish have won 7 of the last 10 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 13 of the last 22 places (last 8 runnings)
  • 13 of the last 18 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 15 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (Last year’s winner Vauban won that race too)
  • 9 of the last 12 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (7 of the last 11) last time
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had raced by Christmas time
  • 6 of the last 8 winners began their careers in France
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
  • Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 9 years

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Just 2 of the last 18 winner returned bigger than 12/1
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 14
  • Willie Mullins has fairly poor record despite winning the 2020 and 2022 races – currently 2-from-34
  • Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners have all lost (all unplaced too)

 

2.10 – County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV

2022 Winner: STATE MAN (11/4)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 11 of the last 16 runnings
  • 7 of the last 8 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) or Dan Skelton (3)
  • Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 13 runnings
  • 18 of the last 22 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
  • 13 of the last 17 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 8 of the last 15 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 7 of the last 14 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 13 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 12 of the last 24 winners aged 5
  • 6 of the last 9 winners had run at Cheltenham before
  • 11 of the last 16 winners Irish-trained
  • 9 of the last 15 winners started their careers in France
  • 13 of the last 17 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 13 of the last 19 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Skelton, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
  • 12 of the last 22 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 16 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 5 of the last 7 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 31 (+15pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 48 (+40.25pts)
  • Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 7 winners

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
  • Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-19) since 2011
  • Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-35) this century
  • Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 35 in last 15 runnings
  • Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 2 winners have defied this stat
  • Just 2 winning outright favourites in last 21
  • Just 3 of the last 15 winners returned a single-figure price

 

    2.50 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2022 Winner: THE NICE GUY (18/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Sean O’Keeffe
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 18 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 15 of the last 18 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
  • 7 of the last 18 winners won the Hyde or Bristol Classic that season
  • 15 of the last 18 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
  • 7 of the last 11 winners had won a Point
  • 7 of the last 9 winners trained in Ireland
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
  • 9 of the last 18 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 18 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 14 of the last 18 had run in a race over 3m
  • 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 14 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 12 of the last 18 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
  • 15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 17 favourites won
  • Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 6 runnings

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 44 in the race, but has won 2 of the last 5
  • Gordon Elliott is 0-from-9
  • Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 18)
  • Nicky Henderson is 0-from-14 in the last 10 years
  • 5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 17)
  • Only 4 of the last 17 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

    3.30 - Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV

2022 Winner: A PLUS TARD (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 19 of the last 23 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
  • 19 of the last 22 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 18 of the last 23 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
  • 11 of the last 17 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
  • 22 of the last 23 winners were Grade 1 winners
  • Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
  • 18 of the last 22 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • 18 of the last 22 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 20 of the last 23 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 13 of the last 15 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 17 of the last 26 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 16 of the last 22 winners won last time out
  • 10 of the last 20 winners were favourites (50%)
  • 13 of the last 18 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
  • ALL of the last 23 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • 22 of the last 23 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
  • 20 of the last 23 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
  • Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
  • 5 of the last 12 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season

Negatives….

  • Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 73)
  • Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 41
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2020, 2019), 2 from 36 (had 4 of the last 10 seconds and the 2019 & 2020 winner though)
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
  • Just 2 of the last 15 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
  • No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase

 

   4.10 - St James's Place Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV

2022 Winner: BILLAWAY (13/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Patrick Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish-trained  

Pluses…..

  • 28 of the last 32 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 26 of the last 37 won last time out
  • The last 8 winners aged 10 or 11
  • 19 of the last 20 winners Irish or French bred
  • The last 16 winners were yet to win over this trip
  • 7 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
  • 9 of the last 14 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 30 of the last 34 started out in point-to-point races
  • 13 of the last 17 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 8 of last 12)
  • 5 of the last 11 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 12 of the last 17 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 9 of the last 14 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 13 of the last 15 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 11 of the last 13 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 10, rated 138+)
  • 3 back-to-back winner in the last 11
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • Just 2 winners in the last 46 years aged 12 or older
  • 27 of the last 34 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
  • Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 35 runnings
  • Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • British bred horses are 0-86 (last 20 runnings)
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 256 since 1990
  • Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

 

    4.50- Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV

2022 Winner: ELIMAY (1st 9/4)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

  • Only 2 previous runnings
  • Willie Mullins trained both winners
  • Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
  • Both winners returned 9/4 2nd favourite
  • Both winners won last time out
  • Both winners rated 150+
  • Both winners aged 8
  • Both winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before

 

5.30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV

2022 Winner: BANDBRIDGE (12/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Mark McDonagh
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 14 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 10 of the last 12 winners placed in the top 3 last time
  • All of the last 14 winners carried 11-1 or more
  • 3 of the last 5 winners had top-weight
  • All 14 winners aged 7 or younger
  • 8 or the last 11 winners rated 139+
  • 12 of the last 14 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
  • 6 of the last 9 winners were Irish-based Novices
  • Irish have won 8 of the last 12 (6 making handicap debuts)
  • 36 of the 38 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 11 of the 14 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 7 of the 14 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the last 9 winners had run over a longer trip that season
  • 8 of the 14 winners were rated 133-139
  • 9 of the 14 winners returned at a double-figure price (11 of the last 14 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 12 of last 14 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 22 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 12 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 10 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
  • Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 4
  • Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 9 of the last 10 between them

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
  • Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 59
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 14-year history (9-12 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 75
  • Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
  • Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-96

 

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 17 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

 

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

/in , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day 3 Preview, Tips

And so to the second half. Still 14 races to go at, including the Stayers' Hurdle, Ryanair Chase and, of course, Friday's Gold Cup. Lots of smaller supporting fish that might also taste sweet, starting with...

1.30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4f)

A bigger field than last year's though, with just four then, that's not difficult!

We have a worthy favourite in Mighty Potter, who brings a four-race unbeaten streak and a career tally of seven wins from nine starts to the table. He's a Grade 1 winner on both his most recent spins, each over this sort of trip, and on form he is clear of his field. If you want a counterargument, it's this: in last year's Supreme he arrived similarly solid-looking off the back of a Grade 1 novice hurdle gold; but he was just not engaged on the day, pulling up a long way out. This will be only his second cross-water away day and, while a body of evidence of one race is hardly bombproof, it is a niggle.

If MP should falter, who may benefit? Most obvious would be Banbridge, winner of the Martin Pipe a year ago and second to El Fabiolo over an inadequate trip most recently. He was beaten ten lengths there, and 18 lengths the time before by Mighty Potter, so one might reasonably argue that the jolly will have to notably under-perform in order for that form to get spun around. It is also the case that Banbridge seems to prefer better ground, his two wins on soft coming in run of the mill novice hurdles where he probably outclassed his rivals.

A veteran at nine, in the context of a novice chase, is Appreciate It, winner of the 2021 Ballymore, second in the 2020 Champion Bumper, and only 10/3 in last year's Champion Hurdle, where he ran well for a long time before lack of race fitness told. There are no such fitness concerns this time after three seasonal outings, two of them wins, but he was comprehensively outpointed by Blue Lord last time and now steps up half a mile in trip. As a son of Jeremy it's not a foregone conclusion he'll stay, especially on rain softened ground; but he travels like he probably will (he did win a bumper over this trip very early in his career, and was a point to point winner before that, for whatever that form is worth now).

The first UK runner in the lists is Balco Coastal, a close up second to Gerri Colombe in the G1 Scilly Isles last time. He'd previously won a decent novices' handicap chase on soft ground lending credence to his claim to underfoot apathy, but his overall level seems a little below the Irish trio.

Stage Star has been a super horse for his myriad enthusiastic owners, and comes here having won seven of his 12 starts, including the G1 Challow Hurdle in 2021. He then pulled up in Grade 1's at both Cheltenham and Aintree, but has got back in the groove this term over a fence. To wit, he's notched three times from four starts - second on the other occasion, in Grade 2 company - and loves it soft. Conditions will be ideal but I'm not convinced he's up to this exacting level.

James du Berlais a hard horse to peg. He was second in Grade 1's at Auteuil and Punchestown over hurdles, and bolted up from the front in a beginners' chase on soft ground. But, in Mighty Potter's G1 last time, he was stuffed. It's possible he'll appreciate the softer ground but he'll certainly need to to reverse those positions.

Turners Novices' Chase Pace Map

This has pace, mainly from Stage Star, Appreciate It and Christopher Wood, but also Banbridge can go forward; so it'll be a true test. Mighty Potter is expected to be handy without getting involved in the battle for the lead.

Turners Novices' Chase Selection

There is every chance Mighty Potter just wins but he's an unexciting price after flopping so badly twelve months back. As such, it might be worth chancing the old man of the party, Appreciate It, in what could be a fair slog if it doesn't stop raining. I feel Banbridge might want better ground, and the rest of the Irish - and all of the British - don't look good enough.

Suggestion: Back Appreciate It at 4/1.

*

2.10 Pertemps Final (Grade 3 handicap, 3m)

Another absolute melee. Coming into last season, the Irish had won the previous six renewals, and held most of the aces for a seventh. But it didn't play out that way. In fact, not only was Hughie Morrison's Third Wind first past the post, but home team runners filled out the podium and five of the first six places. Hmm...

Some of that will be down to happenstance and some at the hand of the BHA's handicapping team, who have recalibrated the relationship between UK and Irish ratings. Whatever, it's an interesting additional consideration to lob into the pot.

My shortlist is Thanksforthehelp, The Bosses Oscar, Level Neverending and Walking On Air. This quintet is trained and owned by 'the right people', has the right unexposed profile, and looks sure to handle conditions.

The Bosses Oscar was second in this off a nine pound higher mark two years ago. He pulled up in it last year but that was after a season chasing where he mainly pulled up. Back to hurdling this term he's been on the premises throughout, and a fast run big field is no problem to him. He's trained by Gordon Elliott, triple Pertemps winner between 2018 and 2020.

He also saddles Level Neverending for the same owners, Bective Stud. This one is far less exposed, having made his handicap debut in the Warwick qualifier, staying on into a qualifying position and never nearer. He's a big price dark horse for all that he might not be good enough against this level of opposition.

Walking On Air runs for Nicky Henderson and Mrs Michael Tabor - Doreen, in fact. He's another lightly raced sort who opened his handicap account in the Exeter qualifier. All form so far has been on a sound surface, which is a concern unless the track dries out pronto.

David Pipe is a Pertemps winner - twice in fact, with the same wonderful stick, Buena Vista. His old man won the race further back and 'Dave' has a good chance with Thanksforthehelp, facile winner of the Chepstow qualifier last time. The notion that last day winners 'have shown their hand' doesn't really fit with the fact that last day winners have taken ten Pertemps Finals since 1997, from 108 qualifiers, for a +11 SP profit. They've also hit the frame at a 26% clip. The flip side is that the last to achieve a winning double was Presenting Percy in 2017.

Lots of others to consider, naturally.

Pertemps Final Pace Map

Potentially furiously run, it will certainly be strongly run. That might suit the strong travellers further back, who can hold a position through the early heat and play their hand late.

Pertemps Final Selection

This is another race where extra places give us extra chances. In that spirit, I want The Bosses Oscar, Level Neverending and Thanksforthehelp on my ticket - and I don't mind splitting (unevenly) between three picks at all. If you only want to back one, take your choice from that trio or any of the other horses in the field!

Suggestion: Make sure you get all the extra places you can, and consider one or more of the three above.

*

2.50 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4 1/2f)

The much maligned Ryanair is one of my favourite races of the week. I get the argument that it dilutes the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but the corollary is that it produces a high class heat all of its own for those not fast enough for the former and without sufficient stamina for the latter: it is truly an intermediate Championship race.

Take Allaho in the past two years, for example; he's blitzed his rivals from the front and, in so doing, has recorded a pair of the best performances at those respective Festivals. Prior to that, Frodon and Bryony provided one of the stories of the week in 2019, and the likes of Un De Sceaux, Vautour, Cue Card, Imperial Commander, and Albertas Run give the roll of honour a robust look. So, no, not for me that the Ryanair is a misstep: it's a cracking race and, generally, a very good betting race.

Perhaps not this season, however, on the latter point at least. Because, in the absence of Allaho, we have Shishkin. The winner of a Supreme and an Arkle pulled up in last year's Champion Chase and flunked behind Edwardstone in this season's Tingle Creek: missing, presumed gone at it. Until, that is, a wind op and a step up in trip conspired to elicit a performance as good as he's ever produced in the Ascot Chase over this trip.

That level of form, and plenty of other from prior to last season's Fez flop, puts him a mile - or maybe half a stone in ratings terms - clear of his field here. But before going all in, consider that he was similarly well-fancied off a similarly rated prep a year ago. That big effort left its mark, albeit that the manner of the result was visually a lot more punishing, Shishkin going toe to toe with Energumene in a heavyweight scrap for our time.

So who, if anyone, can lower Shishkin's black and yellow checkerboard colours? With the news that Allaho would miss the party, Willie was never going to be troubled in shuffling his pack to find a sub. He's come up with Blue Lord, who looked world-beating at Christmas before failing to live with barn mate Gentleman De Mee at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. Prior to that, Blue Lord had done well to hold off former King George winner Tornado Flyer on his seasonal bow over the Ryanair trip. He's high class, but I'm just not sure what his trip is - two and a quarter miles, perhaps?

Janidil got closest to Allaho last year, having been held up away from the tearaways on the front. That turned out to be a good tactic as, although he got nowhere near 'the speed of the speed' Allaho, he plugged on past; but it's reasonable to argue he may not even have been second had Conflated not fallen two out. Janidil had two subsequent spring spins, both non-completions, and has had just one go this season. That was in the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park, where he held off Haut En Couleurs in a small but fairly select field.

This distance may be the making of Fury Road, who has struggled to see out three miles at the top table on a number of occasions. He won a Grade 2 over 2m4f in early November last year before taking bronze in a brace of Leopardstown three mile G1's; further back, he was just outstayed by Monkfish in the 2020 Albert Bartlett.

What to make of Envoi Allen? Winner of the 2019 Champion Bumper and the 2020 Ballymore, he's actually won a couple of Grade 1's since including as recently as this season. He's six from eight at around this distance, hurdles and fences, and, if you can overlook a very poor showing in the King George, he's a place player.

I don't give the rest much of a chance.

Ryanair Chase Pace Map

Steady away here, most likely; Chacun Poir Soi, fabulous old boy, may be near the front but won't be tearing off. Should be a good even tempo.

Ryanair Chase Selection

This is Shishkin's race to lose. He looked very, very good in the Ascot Chase last time and a run with seven pounds of that is probably good enough. I don't really like the 'without' market so that's it - Shishkin.

Suggestion: Back 8/11 Shishkin to generate some eights for any spare elevens you have* - or just watch a champ in action.

*this does not constitute robust financial advice. Caveat emptor.

*

3.30 Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

The second highlight of day three is the Stayers' Hurdle, run over three miles. Bizarrely, it is not always the test of stamina the name suggests: in the last two seasons, Danny Mullins has ridden his rivals into a trance aboard Flooring Porter with, last season, his stop-start tempo on the front end before gearing up in the run to two out. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me thrice?

Although FP's form figures look a little less appealing this season, he's been running to a similar level of form and he seems to handle most ground. Trainer Gavin Cromwell will have again peaked him for this gig, but very few horses manage to win three Stayers' Hurdles (or indeed three of any Festival Championship race). That said, there isn't a bundle of obvious pace alternates in the field.

We haven't seen a lot of the seven-year-old Charles Byrnes-trained Blazing Khal, but what we have seen has typically been other horses following him home. Indeed, he's had just four races since 2020, three of them the following year and all of them victories. That two were achieved around Cheltenham is a boon to his prospects, as is his proven speed for shorter trips as well as three-mile winning form. This will be a first step up to Grade 1 company but, after three successive G2 scores, he's ready. Byrnes tends to know what he has and so the layoff - sole spin since 2021 was last month - isn't unduly concerning, though there is scope for the dreaded 'bounce' with that profile. There is a small niggle about his rider, the trainer's son, who will be unable to claim his allowance here.

Ex-French-trained Teahupoo was in the care of Gabriel Leenders prior to his rehoming at Gordon Elliott's Cullentra House yard, and his former conditioner has Gold Tweet in this year's line up. Let's deal with Teahupoo first. He's a typically early blooming French-bred who has won seven of his nine Irish starts, including this season's Hatton's Grace Hurdle, Grade 1. He was soundly beaten last term in both the Champion Hurdle and the Punchestown equivalent, but has resumed winning ways over further either side of the new year. Most of his good form is on soft or heavy ground so he won't mind any rain, and if it turns into a slog that ought to suit him.

Gold Tweet is another for whom wet ground holds no terrors: it was soft when he won the Cleeve, and very soft when he scored at Fontainebleu in November. But defeating Dashel Drasher and Paisley Park, both fantastic sticks but surely on the decline now, probably leaves him with plenty to find in this deeper field. Gold Tweet has never won above G3 in France (and that in a chase race).

Another I'm struggling to quantify is Home By The Lee. Joseph O'Brien trains this eight-year-old whose timber-topping form prior to this season was 218U113P100P226R; he's managed to put back-to-back wins together, in a Grade 2 and then a three mile Grade 1, so what gives? A charitable perspective of his Stayers' run last year would show that he stayed on having been outpaced mid-race; his case hangs on it being a thorough stamina test, which is by no means a given. In any event, he's short enough in a race of if's and but's.

Willie sends Klassical Dream and he might just be the over-priced one. Sure, he's quirky, and he probably needs to be delivered on the line because he travels a lot better than he finds when let down; but he's a six-time (SIX!) Grade 1 winner including three of his last four Grade 1's - so no back number - and comes here off the back of a narrow defeat by Teahupoo over an inadequate two and a half mile trip.

Of the rest, Ashdale Bob might be involved in making the pace - he's led or been prominent in his last three, and clung tough for 3rd of 23 in last year's Coral Cup - and is admirably consistent. His form in the last three seasons reads 11F912U373232342: almost always thereabouts when completing. I really hope he puts it up to Flooring Porter (though, of course, there will be others who wish the opposite!).

It's tough to make much of case for the stars of yesteryear like Paisley Park and Dashel Drasher.

Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map

Surely Flooring Porter doesn't get an easy lead for a third year running? Surely?! Maybe he does, though both Ashdale Bob and Dashel Drasher can go from the front, too. The French runner, Henri Le Farceur, led last time but is more typically waited with.

Stayers' Hurdle Selection

Very difficult indeed. I'm taking a chance on Klassical Dream, win only, in the hope that they go fast and he can cruise into contention. He's as likely to flop as to win so not an each way play, but hoping he'll give a run for the money.

Suggestion: Back Klassical Dream win only at 10/1.

*

4.10 Festival Plate (Grade 3 handicap, 2m 4 1/2f)

Another borderline impossible handicap, this time a chase, and the first of two such races on the day. This is the least trends'y race of the week, with the Irish faring well enough, so too the Brits; young horses and old, exposed and unexposed, all getting on the roll of honour. It's a race that Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins have never won, Gordon Elliott has only won once and Nicky Henderson hasn't won since 2006! It's also a race where four of the last five winners were priced 5/1 or shorter, which is disappointing unless you fancy So Scottish.

That horse, in the care of Emmet Mullins, Plate winning trainer two years ago, looks an obvious contender for all that he's likely to face deeper ground and has been off longer than most winners; though Ballynagour in 2014 returned after the exact same 117 day layoff to win.

Il Ridoto was a soft ground winner over course and distance last time and, up eight pounds, still looks viable for Nicholls. He might again bid to make all. And a really interesting one if he stays is Frero Banbou. Trained by Venetia Williams, three-time Plate winner, this lad was desperately outpaced in last year's Grand Annual over two miles before making up ground on a fading field into eventual third. He's in the right hands and should be able to lie up with them more easily over this longer range. Venetia also runs Gemirande, a trip specialist who has progressed by more than a stone this season and, not out of the first two in his last six starts, may still be improving.

Millions of others with chances.

Festival Plate Pace Map

There's not a massive amount of early go, though Gemirande and Coole Cody will be there. So, too, perhaps Shakem Up'Arry and Embittered. Should be a fair chance for most.

Festival Plate Selection

The simple answer is So Scottish, and he might be a win saver. But, with as many bonus places as I can get, I'll be splitting my stake between the Brits Il Ridoto, Frero Banbou and Gemirande, and hoping for the best.

Suggestion: Take a couple of your choosing, and save on So Scottish.

*

4.50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)

We all have a least favourite Festival race, and this one is mine. I'm generally accepting of the new races but definitely struggle with the mares' novices' hurdle. Anyway, that's my problem, and it will have a winner to find, so let's get on to that.

With seven renewals so far, Willie won the first five - sigh/wow! - before Henry de B took over with a 1-2 in 2021, where there was an Irish 1-2-3-4, none of them Willie. Then, last year, up rocked Love Envoi, trained by a Brit, Harry Fry, with another Brit in second, Willie third.

And it's a UK mare, Luccia, who is short at the top of the betting lists this time around. She's been an easy winner of all four starts to date, two bumpers and two novices, but hasn't jumped on softer than good ground yet. She could well be the winner; the problem is that this is one of those races where there are a number of unexposed types whose form lines are untested against each other.

Henry de Bromhead has options in a race named after his late son - poor family 🙁 - and it will be unbearably poignant if one of his can win. Chief among them might be Magical Zoe, herself unbeaten in three. She's won on soft in Grade 3 company and, while not as visually impressive as Luccia, she's expected to appreciate any stiffer test of stamina as a result of a fast pace. She was 18/1 that last day and beat the first two in the market into second and third: it didn't look fluky.

A really interesting contender, not to be confused with the de Bromhead runner, is Princess Zoe. You might know her from such as her Group 1 Prix du Cadran score or multiple Galway triumphs. She scraped home in a dead heat on hurdling debut over 2m4f, and it might be that a truly run two miles or so with a bit of cut is optimal. Her jumping lacked a little polish on that timber-topping bow, as it was entitled to do, and, if well schooled since, she's unquestionably high class.

Four of Willie's five Dawn Run winners were five-year-olds, which might just be coincidence; but more Dawn Runners tend to be six or older. Mullins' 5yo entry is Lot Of Joy, who has a Lot To Do on the ratings; but she looks a typical improver, having run up in her first two spins in huge fields before putting a dozen lengths between herself and the nearest of 14 rivals last time. She was 1/7 that day so did nothing unexpected, but that brings her to Cheltenham on an improvement arc and less exposed than many others.

You Wear It Well was second to Hermes Allen in the Grade 1 Challow, a race working out very well. I don't know how Hermes has done at time of writing, but a big performance from him in the Ballymore would clearly be a hint towards this mare's chance. She's fine on all ground and easily won a Grade 2 last time. Both the Challow and that G2 were over further, however, so the drop back in trip is not certain to suit.

Two more to mention, from a cast of 21, are Poetic Music and Halka Du Tabert. Poetic Music was a very good bumper filly, running sixth in Facile Vega's Champion Bumper as a four-year-old. She's taken well to hurdling, winning twice, though was no match for Luccia when they met three back. She wants a battle and she wants a strong pace, and she'll get both of those here: outside squeak.

Halka Du Tabert was well touted and showed the rumours to be on point when slamming Eabha Grace, a Grade 3 winner at the weekend, in a big field maiden. She was outpaced in a small field G3 last time, and this is much more her setup: she could be a contender.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Hard to know how this will go with so many inexperienced mares. On what we've seen, Fox Girl and Halka du Tabert will be forwardly placed from the outset, while Luccia is more likely to track those trailblazers.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection

Lots who will turn out better than they've had a chance to show so far, and Luccia - whilst an obvious win chance - is a measly price. Against her, I'll chance a couple each way: Magical Zoe and Halka Du Tabert. Both are likely to relish a strong pace and possess the battling qualities required for a scrum amongst 20+ inexperienced mares.

Suggestion: Back either or both of Magical Zoe and Halka du Tabert, each way a pleasure.

*

5.30 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)

The second handicap chase of the day, this one over three and a quarter miles and the exclusive domain of amateur riders. However, a quick squint at the winning jocks in recent years demonstrates the level of professionalism in the amateur ranks: just two of the last nine were claiming, and both have now gone professional. Jamie Codd has won the Kim Muir four times since 2009.

In betting terms, there were two 40/1 winners in the past eight years, both British-trained, and the other six were all single figure returns, four of them trained in Ireland.

Favourite this year is Stumptown, on the hat-trick and trained by Gavin Cromwell. He popped up at Sandown last time, eking out seven lengths over the second that day and earning enough of a ratings bump to book his Kim Muir ticket. Although he won a maiden hurdle on soft, his recent best has been achieved on a sounder surface; that doesn't mean he won't handle wetter as well as drier, just that he might not - and he's awful short if you're not sure.

Mr Incredible bids, I think, to be Willie Mullins' first handicap chase winner at the Festival. I believe he's 0 from 37 though he's had some placed. That's clearly not fuelling optimism and the horse - claimed by his rider to be a nutjob - has form figures that lurch from a Scrabble rack to a clutch of podium positions. Which Mr Incredible will show up today?

A horse we were interested in buying a couple of years back is Farinet, and he's been a fine servant for connections. He's trained by the first lady of Cheltenham Festival handicap chases, Venetia Williams, and wasn't beaten too far over course and distance on New Year's Day.

Beauport arrives here rather than the Ultima, and that may be the proverbial tip in itself. Trainer by the Twister, Nigel Twiston-Davies, he loves soft ground and a trip.

At the other end of the handicap, Ben Pauling - winning trainer of the Grand Annual last year - saddles a couple, the more interesting of which is probably Anightinlambourn. He's won three of his last four and was second on the other occasion; two of those runs were here over this sort of trip, but on quicker ground. If it dries out he becomes very interesting, I think.

And I've almost certainly not mentioned the winner!

Kim Muir Pace Map

It's Venetia to the fore and aft, everyone else in between. Farinet likely goes to the front while Chambard will be played late. Lots of other occasional pace pressers means this will be a stern examination of jumping over an exacting distance.

Kim Muir Selection

Tricky. Very tricky. I'm going to try Beauport and Anightinlambourn (good to soft or quicker only) against the field.

Suggestion: Back a couple against the field, with lots of extra places. Maybe the same two as me, and maybe not!

*

It's a very tough day is Thursday at the Festival, so well done if you come out in front. If you don't, there's always Gold Cup day...

Good luck!

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

/in , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

Day two, Wednesday, and a similar combination of novice races, handicaps and a Championship race, this time the Queen Mother Champion Chase. As ever, it's a one-thirty start for the...

1.30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)

They say the Ballymore/Neptune/Baring Bingham is more of a speed test than the Supreme and, if very recent history is anything to go by "they" are right. The winners' finishing speeds in the Supreme in the past two years - the only two for which CourseTrack sectionals are available on the RTV website - were 100% each time, with the runners up coming home in around 94% each time. Meanwhile, in the Ballymore, the winners' closing sectionals were 102.2% and 106% while the runners up recorded 101.4% and 103.8%. What does it all mean? Well, simply that we might be looking for a horse able to travel and quicken rather than one who gallops relentlessly.

To the form, and the only place to start is with the talking horse's talking horse, Impaire Et Passe. Reputedly the latest Pegasus on the Willie Mullins production line, he's unbeaten in a Nancy bumper before transferring to Closutton (for €155,000) and winning a brace of novice hurdles, the second of which was the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer. That race has been a stepping stone in the past for the same trainer's Mikael d'Haguenet, Vautour, Douvan and Min, amongst others. The first of those named won the Ballymore next time, while the other three all went Supreme (two of them winning, Min running second to Altior). So it is arguably the trusted prep for Mullins' top novice hurdlers, although the Grade 1 at the DRF is a more obvious candidate in that regard.

A winner of his maiden hurdle by 18 lengths, in a field of 24, that form looks very ordinary: none of the runners behind that day have won since, and they've collectively amassed 42 starts! Still, that's hardly Impaire Et Passe's fault as he fulfilled his end of the bargain by going so far clear. In that Moscow Flyer, run this year on heavy ground, he jumped well in the main though was a little clumsy at the last. The key thing with his chance, given that on form he has a bit to find, is the stable confidence. Mullins has a raft of talented novice hurdlers and yet this is the one seemingly most talked up: he must be good. But he is inexperienced and, as I say, does not yet have the best form.

Mullins also saddles Gaelic Warrior, second in last year's Fred Boodles and winner of all three of his starts this term, including in a valuable handicap hurdle, shouldering top weight, at the DRF. That form has already had some lustre added to it and, where IEP is a tad shy on experience, GW brings much more as a second season novice.

Splitting the Willie pair in the betting is the Paul Nicholls-trained Hermes Allen. Triumphant in all three of his races so far, he must have surprised a few at Ditcheat because he started out in a Stratford maiden hurdle before claiming the Grade 2 Hyde Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham and the Grade 1 Challow at Newbury. That Challow form has worked out superbly well, with the 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and two of the pulled up also-rans winning since; not only winning, but three of them scoring in Pattern company. Hermes Allen is already a heck of a hurdler, but he could be a monster over fences next season.

The third string to Mullins' extremely stringy bow is Champ Kiely, winner of the Grade 1 Lawlor's Of Naas Novices' Hurdle last time. There he beat Irish Point, who won a Grade 3 at Naas on Sunday; the overall level of that form looks below others in the field, however. That said, the Champ handles any ground and has won four of his five career starts to date.

Barry Connell, boutique trainer of his own horses, has not just Marine Nationale in the Supreme but also Good Land in this. He's winner of his three completed starts this term, having unseated at the first in his hurdling debut. He was last seen winning the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy over 2m6f at the DRF, and that is normally top form as illustrated in this article by Jon Shenton. [For info, the best novice hurdle run annually in Britain or Ireland tends to be the one at DRF won this year by Il Etait Temps].

Ho My Lord is a further Willie wunner, and is unbeaten in completed starts, a French bumper and an Irish maiden hurdle either side of a tumble at Leopardstown at Christmas. He completely unexposed, and as such wouldn't be a total shock winner; but his known level of form is stones below that in the book for some of his rivals.

I liked American Mike for the Supreme after his Champion Bumper second last year, but he seems to have completely lost his way since. It's not unheard of for horses to rediscover their best form at the Festival, but it is usually slightly more planned by connections - who were aiming at a handicap until running out of time to get the requisite fourth run under their belts. Mike looks somewhat homeless in terms of race fit this year; hoping he'll be back next season over a fence.

Ballymore Pace Map

Plenty of early dash, with Hermes Allen and American Mike, along with probably one or more of the Mullins lesser lights. Might be a little quicker than normal in the early stages.

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Selection

I have come round to the hype surrounding Impaire Et Passe, a horse who will have plenty of peers against which to compare his level at home. His stablemate Gaelic Warrior has the best public level of ability but the vibes are all for IeP. Still, the Warrior will likely be hard to keep out of the three and represents a fairly solid each way tickle.

Suggestion: Probably a race to bet Impaire Et Passe, even at relatively skinny odds. 5/1 Gaelic Warrior is a solid-looking each way alternative.

*

2.10 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 3m)

Widely recalled as the RSA Chase, this is in fact the Broadway Novices' Chase, currently sponsored by Brown Advisory, an independent investment management firm apparently. No matter: it always has been and presumably always will be a three mile novice chase and an early opportunity for chasers to advertise future Gold Cup credentials: in that context, it's typically a very good race. The last couple of winners, L'Homme Presse and Monkfish, have absented for the following year's Gold Cup; but going back a decade, Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere were back to back Broadway/Gold Cup doublers.

This year, the most fancied runner is Gerri Colombe, and not without good cause. He's already a dual Grade 1 winner, in the Faugheen at Limerick at Christmas and in the Scilly Isles at Sandown last month; and, though both of those races were over half a mile shorter than he'll face here, he's been going on to assert at the finish each time. Still, he's not guaranteed to stay in a top class test such as this. One asset that will help is his jumping, which was outstanding at Sandown: long or short, he was always clever and didn't tickle a twig at any of the 17 fences. Gerri is a very worthy favourite.

One thing the jolly has not yet done is race around Cheltenham; the same cannot be said of The Real Whacker. Patrick Neville's seven-year-old is unbeaten in two chases at the track, most recently when beating Monmiral three lengths in the Grade 2 Dipper. He, too, has been very good at his obstacles to date and may have more to give: perhaps he'll need to as a line through Monmiral gives him a bit to find with GC - though it's fair to say the collateral horse wouldn't be a reliable yardstick even if reliable yardsticks were a reliable yardstick, if you see what I mean. In any case, his defeat of Thunder Rock (reopposes) was much more in line with Gerri C's margin over the same horse, so if you're into collateral you can choose your poison.

Philip Hobbs has recently announced a joint licence plan whereby long-time assistant Johnson White will share the honour; but before that Thyme Hill will test his mettle for the current sole licensee here. A couple of years the senior of Gerri and the Whacker, Thyme Hill has been a top class staying hurdler, running second in last year's Stayers' Hurdle as well as winning the G1 Liverpool Hurdle, the G1 Challow as a novice, and running third in the 2019 Champion Bumper here. He was also fourth in the Albert Bartlett of 2020, giving him Festival form of 342 in Grade 1's.

Although it feels like this feller has been around forever he only spent three seasons hurdling; and the manner of his Feltham/Kauto Star win at Kempton on Boxing Day - by 15 lengths from McFabulous - was striking. The form however has plenty of question marks with the second pulling up as odds on favourite next time; and the other two runners at Kempton failing to complete. Thyme Hill came from off a sizzling pace that day to barrel away from a couple of tired rivals, an approach that perhaps again gives him a chance to pick up pieces here.

Remember Sir Gerhard? Sporting the union flag colours of Cheveley Park but raced in Ireland for better prize money (sigh), he cost four hundred grand at the end of the 2019. That looked a fairly chunky price tag but he's since recouped more than half of it, which is more than most racehorses achieve! A win here would add another hundred bags to the total and offer the prospect of him getting his nose in front financially (obviously, ignoring training and transport costs - who bothers with those?!).

More materially, what of his form chance? Well, he infamously 'stole' the 2021 Champion Bumper from Kilcruit (pocket talk) and went on to win last year's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at the Festival. This season he's been sighted just once, when bagging a beginners' chase by 38 lengths from the occasionally-very-good-but-not-on-this-particular-occasion Largy Debut. That was in spite of a horlicks of an error, which would be a concern here in terms of chasing experience. Yes, he won a point to point back yon but this wouldn't be the gig to come in underdone. Still, he's plenty of class and ability, so is not easily discounted.

The aforementioned Thunder Rock has been beaten by both Gerri Colombe and The Real Whacker so what chance has he here? Both of those defeats were at around two and a half miles, and the run behind the Whacker was at Cheltenham (2m5f, soft) where the closing comment was, "stayed on final 110 yards". That doesn't really tell the full story: Thunder Rock was last of five three furlongs out and closed all the way to the line. Meanwhile, The Real Whacker - who'd led them a merry dance from flag fall - was getting to the end of his soap-on-a-rope. This extra three furlongs is what brings Olly Murphy's charge into the picture, and he's a price against the top of the market.

The mare Galia Des Liteaux seems to be very well regarded by the Skelton yard, and has looked very good a couple of times this term. Her best run was her most recent, when surging 13 lengths clear of her field in a Grade 2 three mile novice chase at Warwick. The going was heavy that day, as it was when she won a Listed novice chase at Bangor earlier in the season, and that appears to be the key to her: the wetter the better. She was pulled up in the Kauto Star/Feltham when failing to get into a rhythm; that can happen to a horse without necessarily being the death knell to its Festival chance - see for example Bobs Worth.

By contrast, Adamantly Chosen has plenty of good ground form. In his latest pair of races, he's been second in two and a half mile Grade 1's to Mighty Potter and Gerri Colombe - not beaten comprehensively either time, and staying on both times - which puts him in the picture here. He's been supplemented for this, another indication that his chance is credible.

RSA Chase Pace Map

Likely just an even gallop here, with Harry Skelton the prime contender to take them along on Galia Des Liteaux. The Real Whacker has gone forward the last twice, however, so there's a chance of some early contention.

RSA Chase Selection

A race where Gerri Colombe is an obvious and legitimate favourite but a bit on the skinny side pricewise. Of his rivals, I quite like the claims of Sir Gerhard, Galia Des Liteaux (soft ground only), Thunder Rock and Adamantly Chosen (good to soft or quicker), and I think it's an each way sort of a race - though we may end up playing for the place part behind Gerri.

Suggestion: Consider 15/2 Galia Des Liteaux (soft or heavy) or 18/1 Adamantly Chosen good to soft or quicker) each way or without the favourite.

*

2.50 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

A big field handicap hurdle, inscrutable in the extreme to these peepers. A bit of 'black box' shortlisting leaves me with HMS Seahorse, Beacon Edge, Captain Conby, and Bold Endeavour.

HMS Seahorse runs for Paul Nolan, the trainer of Mrs Milner, last year's Pertemps Final winner. He seemed to improve a good bit when needing a few extra pounds to get in here stepping up in trip last time; and he won in the style of a horse with a good bit more up his sleeve.

The Noel Meade-trained Beacon Edge was third Stayers' Hurdle favourite Blazing Khal in the G2 Boyne Hurdle last time, and was a G2 winner at this trip a couple of years ago. He's handily weighted for this handily-cap debut.

Eddie Sheehy is the sort of 'no name' trainer whose runner slips a tad under the radar in races like these; and who can get the job done a la Peter Fahey and Paul Hennessey two years ago. Captain Conby is tough and consistent, and was good enough to still be in the mix in the G1 Mersey Novices' Hurdle when coming down at the second last a year ago. He seems to handle any ground, too.

Best of the home team might be the Nicky Henderson-trained Bold Endeavour, who reverts to hurdles after running second (of three) in the G2 Reynoldstown last time. He looks on a very fair mark so, although the last Festival handicap hurdle winner to have been chasing on its most recent start was Andytown in 2009, that horse was trained by Hendo - and returned a similarly fat price to this one's likely SP. The King of Seven Barrows has attempted the feat eleven times since, faring no better than 7th (in 2021, Mill Green, 40/1) - that obviously tempers enthusiasm.

Coral Cup Pace Map

Probably not crazy fast early despite the huge field, with Bold Endeavour a possible designated driver. Could be a bit of elbows out action turning into the straight with doubtless a dozen and more still holding chances.

Coral Cup Selection

Skybet are *eight* places on this race and that feels the way to go, as long as their win price is competitive with best available. I'll be perming 12/1 Captain Conby, 10/1 HMS Seahorse and 12/1 Beacon Edge - another three very possible place prospects and three darts at hitting the win jackpot.

Coral Cup Suggestion: Split your stake three or four ways - and bet each way with as many extra places as you can find.

*

3.30 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

The Champion Chase is the championship speed test for high class steeplechasers. Remarkably, when Energumene claimed the spoils a year ago, it was Willie Mullins' first Champion Chase success at the 15 time of asking. The other 14 included Un De Sceaux (2nd at 4/6), Douvan (7th at 2/9), and Chacun Pour Soi (3rd at 8/13), so it will have been good for him to get that monkey off his back. This year, Mullins saddles only one: Energumene, the reigning champ.

Energumene comes here off a less than convincing prep in the G1 Clarence House in late January (run here rather than its usual Ascot home). There, he was still in the mix before a shocker at the last curtailed his claim. Prior to odds on disappointment there he'd won ten from eleven, the only blemish being a narrow defeat in 'that' race with Shishkin at Ascot. It is reasonable to assume he was not quite at concert pitch in January and further reasonable to say that he will be this time, in which case he may be the one they all have to beat.

Gentleman De Mee - who misses the race with an infection - previously had an Aintree G1 verdict over Edwardstone, while that one won convincingly in last season's Arkle at Cheltenham. And Edwardstone was imperious in the Tingle Creek earlier in the season, though he himself has since been turned over by Editeur Du Gite.

The management summary is that any of a number of these could conceivably win the Champion Chase, a race that is likely to be further confuddled by a pace profile featuring a broad cast of prospective forward-goers. All of this makes for a fascinating and thrilling spectacle but a nightmare of a punting puzzle.

Further down the lists are very-good-on-their-day types like two mile specialist Funambule de Sivola (chase form of 1121121126451 at or around two miles), whose season took a marked turn for the better with a bold front-running display in the Game Spirit; Greaneteen, who was closest to Edwardstone at Sandown but a bit floppy behind Funambule at Newbury; and Nube Negra who all but won the 2021 Champion Chase but has been in and out since.

And then there's Captain Guinness, representing three-time Champion Chase-winning trainer, Henry de Bromhead, who of course suffered the ultimate distress not long ago: what a phenomenal story it would be if the Captain could get home in front. Heart-warming, but unlikely.

Champion Chase Pace Map

Two or three who can go forward but, with none of them needing to do so, it's not clear how this might play out. Editeur Du Gite and Energumene will fancy their win chances to may rein back slightly off Funambule de Sivola, whose prospects are more wild card. Still, I'd expect it to be at least truly run.

Champion Chase Selection

This might just be a straight shoot out between Edwardstone and Energumene, and it might not. As unhelpful as that sounds, I'm not really sure where to go with it. If Energumene tracks the pace rather than contests it, he gets first run on Edwardstone who will be played later. In that scenario, he might win; or he might set it up for the last challenger, probably Edwardstone.

Editeur Du Gite's chance may be compromised by a duel with Funambule de Sivola, another fast horse early, and another classy contender (though not quite in the Eddie/Energ quality category).

Incredibly, perhaps, this is a no bet race for me. It ought to be a cracking watch all the same.

*

4.10 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)

Another of the 'not for the purists' races, arguably; but I have to concede to very much enjoying the different spectacle of a big field of often familiar names jogging around quirky ever decreasing spiral before shaking loose onto the main course for the sprint to the line. In the olden days, this used to be the almost exclusive province of Enda Bolger but, since 2017, there's been a new sheriff in town. Gordon Elliott (and, in 2021, his proxy, Denise Foster) has won five of the last six renewals of the Glenfarclas Chase and saddled the second and third in the year he didn't win during that spell.

This season, he will be responsible for the first two in the betting, Delta Work and Galvin. Now ten, Delta Work was fifth in the 2020 Gold Cup and was the panto villain a year ago when beating everybody's darling, Tiger Roll, by less than a length. He followed that up with third in the Grand National and he's a worthy and obvious favourite. If there is a vulnerability in his profile it might be that he much prefers wet ground: it was heavy when he bested the Tiger but looks unlikely to be that deep this time.

His stablemate Galvin by contrast prefers top of the ground, though he was good enough to claim silver in the 2020 novices' handicap chase at the Festival on soft. A year later, having retained his novice status, he won the NH Chase; and, last year, he was fourth in the Gold Cup. That's very classy form against this field.

And there is another top tier entry this season in the form of Franco De Port, trained by Willie Mullins. He's run respectably in Grade 1 three mile chases the last twice, a level good enough to mix it with Elliott's duo, but he's never raced in public over cross country fences; that's a knock. He looks sure to stay, however, on the basis of his fine third in the Grand Steeplechase last May.

To be honest, I'm struggling to make a case for anything else. Back On The Lash won the cross country handicap in January here but he's 20-odd pounds wrong with Delta Work, and has fluffed his Festival lines in this exam last season (may have hated the ground, in fairness) - any chance he might have is ground dependant. Snow Leopardess would be a very popular winner, and she did have a sighter over the track in January and arrives on the back of a very good run in the Grand National Trial handicap chase last month. She was fourth in Galvin's National Hunt Chase of 2021, handles genuine soft ground and could be a bit of each way value if/when the bookies offer five places.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map

This will be run at its usual sedate pace for the first three miles or so, with Lieutenant Rocco and Back On The Lash the most plausible for name checks throughout. The gorgeous white mare Snow Leopardess will be easy to spot and may not be far from the front, while Galvin, Delta Work, and especially Franco De Port, will probably be further back during the first half of the race.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection

It looks a straight shootout between the Elliott pair Delta Work and Galvin. On good ground, it's the reigning champion's to lose; soft or heavy would tilt the scales in favour of Galvin; while good to soft would render it pretty much a coin toss between the pair. I don't see anything else representing much value, nor am I mad about punting the short ones at the top at their current prices. I would be tempted by Galvin at bigger than 9/4 on soft ground though that may be asking too much from the layers. If you want an each way with extra places, that might be Snow Leopardess, who looks very likely to improve on her first gallop round this unique circuit.

Suggestion: Back Galvin at 5/2+ if the ground is soft; consider 25/1 Snow Leopardess each way with bonus places, or in any 'without the front two' markets.

4.50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

Impossible. For me, at least. I've backed Coeur Sublime after his 'not quite off for the lot' fourth in a Grade 1 two back and his 'still not quite off' second in a Grade 3 last time out. It's possible he has too much weight or is not good enough - of course it, perfectly possible - but I think this has been the plan all season. He's been second in a Triumph Hurdle and was only 12/1 for a Champion Hurdle so he's classy all right.

Aside from Coeur, the market is a little over-enamoured with the Irish challenge given that the raiders have won just twice since 2014, though they did have the 1-2-3 in 2020 and the second horse home in the two runnings since. Andy Dufresne was one of those silver medallists, last year, and he has been laid out for this since. He'll need to have been because his recent track efforts have been lamentable. On his full body of work, however, he has a clear chance even off top weight (and the same mark as twelve months ago).

I feel as though Joe Tizzard may go close in a handicap this week and he has Elixir De Nutz in this one. Easy winner of a Class 2 handicap a couple of spins back, he was no match for Champion Chase-bound Funambule de Sivola last time, though of course he'd got a qualifying mark by then. Elixir runs in the same Terry Warner colours as former winner (and third placed on another occasion) Oiseau De Nuit, who was trained by Joe's dad, Colin. He's a Grade 2 winner at the track over hurdles, but wouldn't want too much rain.

Grand Annual Pace Map

Fast and furious always. Last year's winner, Global Citizen, and my fancy, Elixir De Nutz, need to be careful not to compromise each other's chance; especially with fancied runners like Final Orders and Dinoblue snapping at their hooves. Expect it to be frenetic.

Grand Annual Selection

I have backed Coeur Sublime and think he can run a nice race; and if it's not too wet - it might be - I'll have a small each way bet on Elixir De Nutz with as many places as I can find.

Suggestion: Your guess is better than mine. I'm guessing 11/1 Coeur Sublime and 16/1 Elixir de Nuit, and hoping to be lucky rather than good.

*

5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1, NH Flat, 2m 1/2f)

Some shrewd judges go to the bar when this is on; even shrewder judges make a lot of paddock notes for future reference. It's not really a betting race, with whispers and hearsay trading far more strongly than form lines - on the basis that most of the horses have very few of those, and even the ones they do possess were earned in vastly different circumstances.

To offer a hint into the opaqueness of the race, how many do you think Willie Mullins has entered this year? Five? Six? Nope. Ten. TEN!!

One who has shown top class bumper form is A Dream To Share and that's why he's favourite. At least you know he can run fast and good. Obviously, plenty of the others are capable of running faster and gooder than ADTS, we just haven't seen that yet.

Better Days Ahead is a Bective Stud/Gordon Elliott entry, and was a good winner last time from Chapeau de Soleil ("gwarrn the sun hat!") in a small field. Who knows that form amounts to?

Willie has won this with some of his unexposed bigger priced runners, such as Briar Hill (25/1, ridden by Ruby Walsh), Relegate (25/1), Champagne Fever (16/1) and Ferny Hollow (11/1). So the advice is to split a small stake between a few of the unexposed Mullins bombs, and hope to be lucky.

Backing all last day winning Willie Bumper runners at bigger than 10/1 in this would have yielded six winners and six more places from 42 starters, and an SP profit of 67 points! A point each way would have returned a surplus of 77.4 points, and that before you include the two fourths and three fifths that some bookies would have paid out on. You'll be taking a good few this time around but it's a less annoying way to play things than betting the buzz horse and watching it crawl home midfield.

Champion Bumper Pace Map

Pinch of salt stuff here, but for what it's worth, this is what we've discovered about the field so far in terms of run style.

Champion Bumper selection

No idea!

Suggestion: Bet the big priced Willies. Perhaps 16/1 Western Diego and 20/1 Westport Cove, e/w with five places in a couple of shops.

*

These seven skirmishes will deliver us to our half time cup of tea. We might need something stronger by then! Regardless, we've another 14 chances at redemption / further glory / giving it back* [*delete as applicable]

Good luck!

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day One Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day One Preview, Tips

We're back! The 2023 Cheltenham Festival is here, and it's going to be a belter! 28 races, almost all of them head-scratching puzzles in terms wagering possibilities... and that's just as it should be! Let's get straight to it.

1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Half past one on the middle Tuesday in March is when the roar reverberates around the Cotswolds as racing regulars and occasionals alike release 361 days' worth of waiting for the first of seven races on the first of four days of fiercely contested battles.

The Supreme is sometimes won by a clear cut favourite - think Appreciate It or Douvan - but, more often than not, the waters are muddier and the multiple returned for finding the winner more appealing. This year falls into the latter bracket, and surely bookies all over the country will be desperately trying to 'get' Facile Vega. That is not, of course, because he can't or won't win; but rather that his price probably over-states his chance currently. Here's why...

Ignoring the fact that he was a terrific bumper horse - winning Grade 1's both here and at Punchestown - and the fact that he's Quevega's son, his actual hurdling form is not out of this world. A maiden win against a field that has managed a solitary handicap hurdle victor, off a perch of a relatively lowly 106, from 27 runs between them, was followed by a much more impressive Grade 1 score where he beat three subsequent winners. That legitimately put Facile Vega in short at the top of the market; but, since then, he's run a very poor race over the same course and distance in a G1 at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF). Excuses have been proffered for that clunk: he was messed about with by High Definition, he went too fast, etc. But they didn't go crazy fast, and High Def mainly messed with himself as he tumbled at the fourth. Word is (take it or leave it, obvs) that FV was lame for a week after Leopardstown so, if you've backed him ante post you'll see that as legitimacy and hope, and if you haven't you'll see it as a concern and a reason to look elsewhere. Such is the way of value betting...

I've backed him at shorter than he is now and I am not remotely inclined to go in again!

But assessing the remainder is also tricky. Marine Nationale was the early season poster boy - and he might perhaps be the late season heartthrob, too, except that we've not seen him since early December; his form has taken a few dents in the interim. In fairness, he's an unbeaten-in-four Grade 1 winner so it will be no shock if he's the best of these but that 100-day layoff would be the longest by a winner since Captain Cee Bee in 2008 and only the second triple-digit absence since at least 1997.

Il Etait Temps has to be a player. Only fifth and fourth behind Vauban in the four-year-old Grade 1's at Cheltenham and Punchestown a year ago, Willie Mullins has had a novice hurdler with plenty of experience to work with this term; and he's been rewarded with wins either side of getting closest to Facile Vega at Christmas. Of course, most recently Il Etait Temps won 'that' race in which HD dived and FV bombed. Although he was a bit awkward early in transit that day, he powered through the line and was just on ten lengths clear of second-placed Inthepocket, Dark Raven a neck back in third. Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he's generally safe across them.

High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year. The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite. I think he's very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go.

Both Inthepocket and Dark Raven have a place chance on that DRF form: they each brought unbeaten in three records to the G1 party there and each emerged with a degree of credit, Inthepocket having found himself exactly that at a key point in the race. Crucially, both are entitled to be wiser for their first exposure to top class company.

What of the British challenge? The most obvious contender is Tahmuras, winner of a maiden hurdle at Chepstow, a Listed at Haydock and the Grade 1 Tolworth at Sandown. There have been six subsequent winners from his maiden, and the Tolworth form is standing up too: the third there won a G2 next time, the fourth won a novice and was then second in the same G2, and the fifth - Authorised Speed - easily reverted to winning ways back in shallower waters. He's won on soft and good to soft so no ground concerns. The question is how the UK level compares with its Irish counterpart.

Rare Edition was very disappointing when only second in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, a race won in 2020 by Shishkin en route to Supreme glory. He apparently scoped dirty after the race and there has been some whispering about back spasms, both of which appear to have now been resolved. Trainer Charlie Longsdon is bullish about his chance and, on the evidence of the book, he's a place possible at least... if the British form holds its own.

The talking horse in recent days has been Diverge, who won a 22 runner maiden hurdle by 23 lengths. None of the eleven horses to run again since that race have won, and only one hit the frame: the form is weak regardless of how good Diverge might turn out to be. He's inexperienced, too, and for those reasons, as the Dragons say, I'm out.

Olly Murphy runs two in the race, Chasing Fire and Strong Leader, and my preference of the pair is for the former. He's unbeaten in a point, a bumper, and three hurdle races and, though untested in Graded company, he's kicked to the kerb everything he's faced hitherto. I feel like the quicker they go the better for him, as he looks a very strong stayer.

Fennor Cross is a massive price but is a dual Cheltenham hurdle winner this season, the second of which was in the Grade 2 Supreme trial. That was in mid-November, however, and he's not been seen since as, presumably, he needs good ground - the underfoot for both those course scores. Alas, it looks unlikely that will be the description for race one, day one.

Supreme Novices' Pace Projection

Likely to be quick, as forward-goers like High Definition and Rare Edition collide with an ocean of adrenaline coursing through the jockeys' veins for the first rising tape of the week.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection

I don't have a strong opinion here except that the favourite is poor value. Note, I don't think he is sure to lose, just that his win probability may be lower than his price implies. That's a general take through all of the races: any horse can - and, at Cheltenham, often does - win any race. So we're looking for something that might have a better chance than implied in its price. In this race, I think Il Etait Temps is a fair price, especially if you can find four each way places; and it wouldn't surprise if Tahmuras ran a big race either, especially with his trainer in terrific form.

*

2.10 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

The first chase of the week is a speed test for novices, and frequently advertises the claims of a potential Champion Chaser of the near future. This season, battle lines are drawn between Britain and Ireland and, as with the Champion Hurdle two races later, team captains are Messrs Henderson and Mullins.

For the home squad, Hendo saddles Jonbon, second (third if you include yawning daylight) in last year's Supreme behind Constitution Hill. In the absence of that monster, Jonbon won the G1 Top Novices' Hurdle at Aintree, beating a chap called El Fabiolo. This season, the JP McManus-owned seven-year-old has won all three chase starts, mostly in the manner of a good'un; that said, he was more workmanlike than striking in his Festival prep in the Kingmaker at Warwick. There, he eventually eked out a five-length margin over Calico in a match. The form of that race has received a boost with the runner-up - a twelve-length winner in Class 3 handicap company before Warwick - going in again at Doncaster in a £20k Class 2 handicap since. Obviously, this is a different kettle of gravy, but there's also every chance that Jonbon was under-cooked for his preparatory spin: he'll be cherry ripe now.

Pop back to that Aintree G1 and we find our other joint favourite. There was little between Jonbon and El Fabiolo in Liverpool and they may again be hard to separate. Willie's contender has had two chasing starts, winning by 19L and 10L, the latter in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Handy enough throughout, he pounced on trailblazing Dysart Dynamo approaching the second last and had enough energy left to go clear of a three-way picture for the places between Banbridge, DD and Appreciate It.  If they all stand up it's hard to see the placed horses reversing with the winner, in spite of the argument that the furlong and a bit shorter trip might favour the pace horse. That said, El Fabiolo did not impress with his jumping at Leopardstown.

Those that fell or unseated last time are 1 from 14 in recent times with nine of them sent off 11/1 or shorter: it's not obviously a positive for the chance of Saint Roi but nor is it a terminal knock. This lad was fourth in last year's Champion Hurdle and won a Grade 1 novice chase at Christmas, so he's oodles of class; but he was hurdling for four seasons including his time in France which sometimes makes it more difficult for horses to make a chasing shape thereafter. He's bang there on talent but that leaping has to be a concern.

The rest are unlikely to be good enough.

Arkle Pace Projection

There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d'Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races. Jonbon is expected to sit slightly off the fiercest of the sizzle.

Arkle Chase Selection

A race that will probably play out in line with the market expectation of a duel between Jonbon and El Fabiolo. If El Fab's jumping holds up, I think he'll win, and if it doesn't I think Jonbon will win. I don't really see Dysart Dynamo sustaining his front-footed charge and prefer Saint Roi to travel round in his own time and pick up the each way pieces. Not especially a betting race if you haven't already played, I don't think.

*

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

The first of nine handicaps and I'll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don't run many - just three darts this year - and I'll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly.

My shortlist is Corach Rambler, The Goffer (though he is Irish), and the Tizzard pair, Oscar Elite and The Big Breakaway.

Corach Rambler won the race last year and will again be played late; he was much the best that day and is only six pounds higher now. A fine fourth of 15 in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy as was) in November was his most recent run, though that was 108 days ago. Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners.

The Goffer won a Grade A handicap chase at Leopardstown last time off a mark of 138. He's got 149 here, as a result of both that win and the recalibration of Irish marks to British ones; while that seems a hefty enough elevation to overcome, the step back up to an extended three miles could be in his favour. He's a novice and so remains somewhat unexposed.

I had a good bet on Oscar Elite in this last year. That partially paid off - the place part specifically - as he finished third. Given he was subsequently found to have bled from the nose, and he is now just a pound higher in the weights, and that he won last time out, I like his chance again. He won't want it too soft, though. Tizzard's other runner, The Big Breakaway, on the other hand loves the wet. He was third in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase two years ago and a game second in the Welsh National at the end of last year - carrying 11-13 - last time. He jumps, he stays, he handles the track and ground and he's very much a runner for me.

Ultima Pace Projection

It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. Luck in running is needed, and usually patience, too.

Ultima Handicap Chase Selection

Skybet are paying EIGHT places on this race, and a couple of others are seven places deep. That gives us plenty of chances and the first name on the team sheet is Corach Rambler, whose run style lends itself to hitting the frame even without extended places! I'm slightly on weather watch with Oscar Elite, very much liking his chance on good to soft but less keen on softer. I'd rather take shorter when knowing the ground with him. In the end, I'm swerving The Goffer on the basis of the Irish record, which will of course be the wrong thing to do one of these years; but I definitely want a bit of the The Big Breakaway with the extended places as well.

Suggestion: With as many as eight places on offer, you can take two or three each way and potentially be rewarded on all places while trebling your chance of hitting the win jackpot. In that context, back any/all of 6/1 Corach Rambler, 11/1 Oscar Elite (wait for ground news is my advice), and 14/1 The Big Breakaway.

*

3.30 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

The undoubted highlight of day one is the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle. Since just under two hours before last year's Champion Hurdle, Constitution Hill has been close to, or outright, favourite for the 2023 renewal. The reason for that was his destruction of a solid-looking Supreme Novices' Hurdle field in the 2022 curtain raiser, where he easily despatched Jonbon et al in a very fast time. True, both Dysart Dynamo (joint favourite with CH that day) and Mighty Potter, unbeaten in four since, both failed to complete; but that is, after all, a fairly important part of the challenge.

Since sauntering home a year ago, Nicky Henderson's six-year-old son of Blue Bresil has bolted up by a dozen lengths from Epatante in the G1 Fighting Fifth, and hosed in by seventeen lengths from the same rival in the G1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He's won his last four starts, all Grade 1's, by 12L, 22L, 12L, and 17L - and had won his previous start by 14L. His speed figures are just about off the scale and he can take a position wherever in the field meaning tactics are not a worry. Given he's normally an excellent jumper, there are essentially no holes in Constitution Hill's profile whatsoever and he's a very worthy odds-on favourite.

If this year's Champion Hurdle is not to be a procession, the most obvious candidate to make a race of things is State Man. Since 2009, Nicky Henderson leads Willie Mullins - in whose care State Man resides - 5-4 and, in search of the equaliser, Mullins' Man has very strong credentials. At least, in any other year he would have. To wit, he's unbeaten in six straight completed starts, a sequence that includes last year's County Hurdle followed by four consecutive Grade 1 races. In that quartet of G1 scores, he's earned closing comments as follows: "easily", "comfortably", "easily", "comfortably".

Well, something has to give, and the market is fairly confident it will be the British champion lording it over his Irish counterpart. I'm also confident that will be the case having not been overly impressed with what State Man found off the bridle in the County, the only time he's needed to be pushed out to the line. But I don't have enough threes to try to steal some ones at the prevailing odds. So how else to play? We'll come to that. First, what of the supporting cast?

Willie has more than just State Man; he also saddles last year's Triumph Hurdle winner, Vauban, and he's an interesting contender. While Constitution Hill and State Man are likely to be on or close to the pace, Vauban has been ridden a lot more patiently and, as a result, has finished his races off well in respectable defeats to State Man. If State Man tries to force things against the favourite - and it's unlikely the Closutton team will be riding for a place - then Vauban may be the one to hoover up any crumbs.

The second possible in that context is I Like To Move It, whose Greatwood and Kingwell Hurdle wins have advertised his 'dark horse' claims. True, he was well seen off by Marie's Rock in the Relkeel, though that was over an extra half mile; and he was no match for State Man in the County a year ago. He has some impressive performances to his name, most of them on genuine good ground, but I can't quite shake that County clunk from my memory banks.

Not So Sleepy has a fair record in the race: 5th two years ago and 6th last year, but he's eleven now; and I don't give Zanahiyr or Jason The Militant any material chance.

Champion Hurdle Pace Projection

Any of Jason The Militant, Not So Sleepy, or the big pair of Constitution Hill and State Man could take them along. Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field.

Champion Hurdle Selection

The win market is all about Constitution Hill, who better ratings judges are suggesting is the best we've seen in a very, very long time. If that's right, he's a fair enough price for those who like playing big at short. Each way is not an option in a seven-runner race generally, still less with such a domineering jolly; but 'without the favourite' is a way in. That market has its own shortie, too, in State Man but I feel Vauban 'without' is a credible alternative given how the race is likely to pan out. If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it's possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn't far behind him in steadily enough run G1's in Ireland and can come through for silver.

Suggestion: Back Vauban without the favourite at anything better than 7/2 (4/1 with Hills at time of writing).

*

4.10 Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m4f)

There has been plenty of chat on the Maremite Hurdle - some love it, some hate it. Me? I'm in the love camp, and I don't really understand the naysayers who I feel are only rehashing the argument, which has surely had its day now, that it denigrates the Champion Hurdle. Let's just accept the new world and move forward - and what better time to do that than in a year which features the winners of THREE Champion Hurdles?

Well, why aren't they running in that race then, I hear (one of) you cry! The answer, of course, is trajectory; and that is the byword for attempting to solve this wagering puzzle. Cast back to 2020, and a six-year-old Epatante was winning the Blue Riband while forty minutes later Honeysuckle, also six, was winning this race. Five-year-old Marie's Rock had won a Listed mares race at Taunton, and Love Envoi was a year away from making her debut.

In 2021, Epatante could only finish third in the Champion Hurdle, behind Honeysuckle. Marie's Rock had recently run third in a mares' Grade 2 at Doncaster and Love Envoi was about to win a Wexford bumper on her first start. A year later, last year, and Honeysuckle again won the Champion Hurdle with Epatante her nearest pursuer on this occasion. Marie's Rock had graduated to winning the Mares' Hurdle and Love Envoi the Mares' Novices Hurdle.

And so to this term. Honeysuckle, heretofore unbeaten in 16 Rules races and a point to point, is now without a win in her two seasonal spins. Third to the improving - and very good on soft ground - Teahupoo over this sort of trip, and then second to the improving - and just very good - State Man over two miles is hardly poor form; but it is a step down from where she was previously. The question then is whether Honeysuckle is regressing slowly enough to still have something in hand of Epatante, herself steadily on the downgrade, and of the progressive Marie's Rock and highly progressive Love Envoi: that's what makes this such a fascinating conundrum.

Epatante has been thumped twice in Grade 1's by Constitution Hill this season; and then beat a field of inferior mares in appropriate fashion. She's only run once at this longer distance, when winning the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle easily last season. Her main market rival that day fell at the last as Epatante was looming upsides, but she looked to have had him covered at that point. She is holding her form fairly well and is unexposed at the trip.

Marie's Rock has been a revelation since winning a handicap hurdle in December 2021: from that point on, she's won five of six - pulling up having been hampered on the other start - a sequence that includes the Mares' Hurdle and Punchestown equivalent (both G1) last season and the Relkeel Hurdle on her only start this year. My reservation, aside from the very light 2022/23 campaign, is the substance of her form: in last year's Mares' Hurdle she beat 150-rated Echoes In Rain, who doesn't seem to stay this far, and a bunch of 140-something mares; at Punchestown, she beat a conceivably over the top Epatante (who had run 2nd in the Champion Hurdle and won the Aintree Hurdle in the previous six weeks); and in the Relkeel she beat an array of dodgy geezers the likes of which would not look out of place outside an East London boozer (I should know!). She might win - she's just about favourite after all - but her rising star may have just about reached its apex to my eye.

As for Love Envoi, she needs the rain to continue her own ascent. She has won eight of her nine starts to date, including last year's Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle here and her only defeat - second to Brandy Love - was on yielding turf. She's tough, loves the mud and has improved her top Racing Post Rating in each of her last seven races; it's not a big price that she'll improve on it again - the question is whether she can do it to a sufficient degree to usurp those above her. Trajectories, eh?

Brandy Love has been very lightly raced but is a Grade 1 winner at this range, when seeing off Love Envoi who, by contrast, was having her sixth battle of last season. I don't expect her to confirm the form with Harry Fry's mare.

Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection

This looks like it will be run at a sensible even gallop.

Mares' Hurdle Selection

A fantastic race in terms of stalwarts of the game and in competitive terms. Finding the winner will be difficult. Having backed Honeysuckle, I didn't think she'd face such a deep field - and I don't think connections did either. But she's still just about the one to beat, along with Epatante. I'm against Marie's Rock - fully mindful that it might look preposterous post-race - and, if it is soft, I'd want Love Envoi onside, too. It's that kind of contest!

Suggestion: The each way 'bet to nothing' (it doesn't exist, but you know what I mean) is 9/2 Epatante, who looks sure to be bang there; and I'm going to have a small bit on 9/1 Love Envoi as well, if the ground is soft.

*

4.50 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)

Too difficult. I've backed loads of them, which is ridiculous, because I haven't got a clue who wins. The average winning SP since 2012 has been 27/1, and there have been nine winners priced 20/1 or bigger since the race's inception in 2005; so the market doesn't have a clue who wins either! The suggestion, then, is to ignore anything shorter than 16/1 and try to make a case for two or three darts, win only, for small change.

In that spirit, I offer the following:

Afadil - a Paul Nicholls French import a la Sanctuaire, Qualando and Diego du Charmil, all of whom won this for PFN

Metamorpheus and Jazzy Matty - with thanks to Gavin Ryan for this snippet: this pair both ran in the Naas race that has thrown the winner of the last four Fred Boodles. So, too, did Byker, Sir Allen, and Morning Soldier - and the one I had most on for this prior to that race, Almuhit. He blew the start and was left 30 lengths!!!

Boodles Handicap Hurdle Pace Projection

A good half dozen possible pace angles here, headed perhaps by Mighty Mo Missouri. Expect thrills and spills.

Boodles Handicap Hurdle selection

I cannot with clean conscience propose you bet anything in this race on my say so. I've backed a few, including the three mentioned above. 

Suggestion: One for a blindfold and Mr Felt Tippy, your magic marker

*

5.30 National Hunt Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)

The four miler is not quite the race it was, and not just because it's only three miles and six furlongs in distance these days. This oldest race of the Festival and monument to the Corinthian nature that characterised National Hunt racing for a million years has undergone more nips and tucks to its race conditions than <insert your preferred surgically enhanced pantomime dame here>.

Its current format, borne somewhat legitimately out of the ugly optic that was the 2019 renewal, where just four of 18 starters completed and 'encouragement' was outside of what might be termed the comfort zone for even the most stoic of country sports fans, comprises more than just a reduced race distance. That range truncation implies a reduction in the number of fences, and there are indeed two fewer - 23 versus the previous 25 - and, additionally, no horse rated below 120 or with fewer than two chase starts (including one in the current season and one over about three miles or more) will qualify. The upshot is that a race that drew 17-20-18-16-18 runners up to 2019 has, since the amendments, attracted 14, 12 and, last year, just six runners. It's another smallish field this year, with ten going to post.

The market has been headed for a long time by Gaillard du Mesnil, a hyper consistent horse but only an occasional visitor to the winners' enclosure. To wit, in 13 Rules starts he's finished in the places on all bar one occasion, but has won just four times - and only once in eight starts in the past two years. That's got to be a concern about a horse priced around the even money mark, for all that many of those form lines give him a clear edge on his field. He was third in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase last year and filled the same position, in a field of 27, in the Irish Grand National a month later. This season, GdM followed up a good second to Mighty Potter over an inadequate two and a half miles with one of those elusive wins - and by eight lengths no less - against Churchstonewarrior, a surprise defector at the final declaration stage, in a three mile Grade 1 at Christmas. He was again beaten by the Potter when dropped back to the Potter's trip territory in a G1 at the DRF, and will clearly relish this more stamina-emphasised test. But did I mention that he doesn't win all that often?

The key to Chemical Energy appears to be in the turf. His form on good ground is 112111, while on softer he's 140854. It's bound to be softer than good and he has some stamina questions to answer, too. He's not for me.

Mahler Mission ran a fair race (7th of 16) in last year's Albert Bartlett and, though he was whacked in a novices' chase at Cheltenham early in the season, that was surely a sighter on ground much faster than ideal. More recently he's won a beginners' and then ran a gallant second to Churchstonewarrior.

Minella Crooner was a good staying hurdler, running second to Minella Cocooner in the Nathaniel Lacy at the 2022 DRF. He's one from four over fences though was also second in a Grade 2 in early season. The balance of his performances is not at the level of some of his rivals, and he might not want it too soft either. However, an interesting outsider to consider is Tenzing: he's still a maiden after three chase starts but that trio includes finishing close to Gerri Colombe and Ramillies before being beaten a little further last time by Mahler Mission. On the pick of those runs, he could again challenge for the frame.

Best of the (limited) British defence is probably Mister Coffey, a perma-bridesmaid trained by Nicky Henderson. He's finished second in five of his last six starts, a run that includes the G1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase of last year and the Kim Muir a month later. He looked a strong stayer at last season's Festival and this test might be just the ticket.

Of the big prices, Coolvalla has nothing like the ratings to be in the shake up at this level. And yet, he's won handicap chases by 19 lengths and 17 lengths the last twice, has proven stamina, jumps well, and comes here nicely rested. He might outrun his 66/1 odds.

National Hunt Chase Pace Projection

A few possibles for the lead, most notably Mahler Mission, Minella Crooner, and perhaps Bellatrixsa. At the other end of the field, Chemical Energy will probably be patiently ridden by that master of the waiting ride, Jamie Codd.

National Hunt Chase Selection

On official ratings, Gaillard du Mesnil is clear of his field and he obviously has the talent to win; but his inability to put races to bed, even if they have been higher level races, has to be a worry at the price. Against him, there is a clutch of horses separated by only a few pounds on ratings, and it will be the one that adapts best to this somewhat unique test who is the each way bet. That might be the ultra-consistent Mister Coffey, who has placed Festival form to his name.

Suggestion: Back Mister Coffey each way at 9/1.

*

It's a fascinating start to the week, with top class horses aplenty and deep, deep fields in the main. Good luck with your betting in the opening quarter!

Matt

London Racing Club Cheltenham Preview Night Notes

/in , /by

In front of a packed and enthralled gathering at South Kensington Holiday Inn, London Racing Club's annual 'best of breed' Cheltenham Preview Evening unfurled. Gently and eloquently compered by Racing Post senior writer, Lee Mottershead (LM), the panel further comprised stats man extraordinaire and former author of Weatherby's annual guide, Matt Tombs (MT), Racing TV's outstanding host and form judge, Lydia Hislop (LH), and - with a line from the odds makers, Sam Hockenhull of Fitzdares (SH).

What follows are their thoughts as far as I was able to scribble them down while still mainly aiming to enjoy the show!

TUESDAY

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

LH - Concerned by Facile Vega's last run. Was reportedly lame after: that's a worry. Prefer Rare Edition each way, who was impressive at Christmas but came back with a dirty scope after his race at Huntingdon. Not dismissing Il Etait Temps, though he can pull hard.

MT - Is FV ground dependent? Best form seems to be on soft, could be a place lay on a sounder surface. Il Etait Temps is unsexy but is a good value e/w play. Like Rare Edition as well. At longer prices, Diverge and Doctor Bravo are mildly interesting in what looks a very open and potentially substandard renewal.

Arkle

SH - Hard to separate the top two in the betting

MT - Strongest view of day 1: on form, El Fabiolo should be clear favourite. Jonbon jumped right at Warwick and, while El Fab also has jumping concerns, he's always jumped well immediately after making his mistakes. Dysart Dynamo is probably the best jumper in the field but if he goes too hard on the front could bomb out completely.

LH - Feel like the Warwick race has been overplayed in terms of Jonbon form. Calico (2nd there) showed he'd improved when winning next time. Not worried about Jonbon adjusting right. El Fabiolo "occasionally quite clumsy", but agree the Irish Arkle is the best form on show so far. But this race is likely to be the best form by season end. Saint Roi is interesting - "jockey admitted falling off" last time. Won't get involved in any pacey business on the front end and so is playable e/w at the prices.

Champion Hurdle

MT - Think Constitution Hill might be better than Istabraq; he's the complete package.

LH - It's a horse race ("thankfully"), and stuff can go wrong; but it will very much have to for CH to get beaten in the CH. I Like To Move It the "wise guy" horse but his forward-going style may not be suited to the tactical shape of the race.

Mares' Hurdle

SH - Epatante is a very interesting supplement. Want to lay Honeysuckle. Love Envoi is backable on softer ground.

LH - Can't make a strong case for Honeysuckle, but can see why she's stepped up to Mares' Hurdle distance. Epatante appears to be regressing more slowly than Honeysuckle and "mullered" some lesser horses at Doncaster last time. Interested in Love Envoi and Maries Rock if she shows here, but not Echoes In Rain.

MT - Can see a wall of money for Honeysuckle on the day so might be a back to lay opportunity. Maries Rock probably going to Stayers' Hurdle but would "really fancy her" if turning up here.

Rest of Tuesday

SH - Ultima: Happygolucky ran well at Newcastle off a big break before tiring in the straight. Was given a sighter at Cheltenham next time. Form looks decent and trainer Kim Bailey thinks a lot of the horse. Can't see Corach Rambler winning from behind again. Don't like Tekao in the Boodles, don't think he'll get up the hill.

MT - 'Waited with' run style can be a positive in the Ultima where plenty of jockeys go off too quickly. Gaillard du Mesnil is opposable at the prices in the NH Chase. Don't think that race's profile suits such a strong stayer any more. Churchstonewarrior could be a playable alternative - going slower could suit him.

LH - Happygolucky in the Ultima. Into Overdrive is interesting, too. Afadil in the Boodles. Want to oppose GdM in the NH Chase, with Mahler Mission and Chemical Energy viable options.

 

WEDNESDAY

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

SH - Impaire Et Passe (IeP) the recent money horse.

LH - IeP has the right combination of speed and jumping. Ruby/Willie vibes are very strong. Inthepocket is interesting up in trip; didn't the run of the race at the Dublin Racing Festival. Might need playing late but looks fair e/w.

MT - Would love to own Hermes Allen, but wouldn't run him in this race! Nicholls doesn't tend to hard train novice hurdlers. IeP is "nap of the whole Festival". He has everything you need for this job.

Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

LH - Thyme Hill form awful, the time was "glacial" 😆 Rain might be important for Gerri Colombe. Without rain, not sure he'll enjoy downhill sections of the track. Like The Real Whacker, but form has taken some knocks.

SH - Don't like Thyme Hill

MT - Lay of the meeting is Thyme Hill. Want to oppose Sir Gerhard who is inexperienced over fences and would probably be running over shorter if trained by anyone else than Willie. Gerri is a banker if it's wet. Like TRW as well. Thunder Rock could be an 'in running' play if he's travelling well in the first mile.

Champion Chase

MT - Edwardstone seems to be the momentum horse. Most likely winner but Editeur du Gite is some value - he's underestimated. Gentleman Du Mee is the horse liked most at the prices: looks progressive.

LH - Energumene jumps right which is a problem at Cheltenham; cannot have him at all. EdG is a fair price, and he might be Gentleman's problem if he doesn't allow that one to dominate from the front. Edwardstone probably just wins, after a good prep when a lot went wrong last time. He's the nap of the day.

Rest of Wednesday

MT - Cross Country: Gordon Elliott is the man for this now, with a stranglehold on the race. Delta Work probably wins if the ground is soft, Galvin probably wins if it's quicker. In Grand Annual, Rouge Vif and Sizing Pottsie have interesting profiles.

LH - Rouge Vif had a nice prep for the Grand Annual at Doncaster, but would be worried about rain for him.

 

THURSDAY

Turners Novices' Chase

SH - Betting each way at shortish prices is not for everyone, but Banbridge will surely be hard to keep out of the frame and has a solid win chance, too.

LM - Nicky Henderson likes Balco Coastal at a big price

MT - Tipped Banbridge early season... for the Brown Advisory! In the Balco Coastal camp, possibly got there too soon in the Scilly Isles, and might appreciate going left-handed. One of the e/w bets of the week.

LH - Worried about Mighty Potter potentially not handling the travel/prelims again after last year. Could be different story this time but he has to overcome that and is very short in the betting considering. Banbridge is more straightforward and Balco Coastal is interesting at a bigger price, too. Appreciate It might be "a bit aged" to be winning this.

Stayers' Hurdle

SH - If Blazing Khal runs, he will go off favourite and looks the most likely winner.

LH - Will BK make it? The jockey - trainer's son - is a slight concern, too, as he won't be able to claim his usual five pounds. Maries Rock is very keen, while Teahupoo needs soft ground (might get it). Flooring Porter has had issues in the build up; Home By The Lee is improving but has more to find... which leaves Gold Tweet. The French horse has had a perfect prep, and jumps brilliantly.

MT - Ground important for Teahupoo who wants "proper soft". Blazing Khal has fitness and jockey concerns. Quite like HBTL though he wouldn't want a dawdling pace. If Maries Rock settles, she might be the bet.

Ryanair

MT - Hitman without the favourite (Shishkin) looks a good bet.

LH - Shishkin is a very likely winner; he "towers above the opposition". French Dynamite playable without the favourite: should like the return to Cheltenham, is improving but can make mistakes. Not interested in hold up types like Fury Road in this.

Rest of Thursday

LH - Mares' Novices: Luccia very good but Halka du Tabert, Magical Zoe and Harmonya Maker are all possibles, too. Check the ground before betting in this one. In the Festival Plate, Frero Banbou has been shaping like he needs this step up in trip.

SH - In the Mares' Novices, You Wear It Well keeps improving and wasn't far behind Hermes Allen in G1 Challow. Will stay on up the hill. Main danger might be Ashroe Diamond.

MT - Frero Banbou in the Plate. In the Mares' Novices, Halka du Tabert didn't get a good ride last time: she's better than that. In the Pertemps Final, Good Time Jonny could be a good old fashioned Tony Martin plot. Ran in Albert Bartlett last year, and been a mixed bag this season: very well weighted on his best form.

 

FRIDAY

Triumph Hurdle

MT - 'Vibes' have been for Blood Destiny, but not a betting race

LH - Preview-night yak has raised the possibility Paul Townend might ride Blood Destiny, which would move him into favouritism. Lossiemouth has to prove herself in an end to end gallop, while Gala Marceau probably didn't get the credit she deserved last time: she's overpriced in relation to Lossiemouth. All three of those are Willie horses, so jockey bookings will be instructive. Comfort Zone can run well and could be the e/w play, though Aintree might be more his bag.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

MT - This is a great betting race, as it's a different test from most of the races through the season and throws up some big priced winner as a result. Only one winner shorter than 11/1 in the past nine years. That said, may need to be more open-minded this year. Favori de Champdou and Affordale Fury are two of interest, but whatever you like, swing win only rather than each way.

LH - Hiddenvalley Lake one to be with. Profile of race has changed: now less seasoned horses can win. Absolute Notions a player if running here; so too Dawn Rising. Will be looking at unexposed types at the 48 hour stage.

GOLD CUP

LH - Galopin Des Champs is a very likely winner but, at bigger prices, Ahoy Senor could have a perfect setup in this test. Noble Yeats looks good to pick up place pieces. Although Bravemansgame may prefer flatter tracks, he has the strongest form in the race this season. Strongly against A Plus Tard's profile coming into the race. Even at his best, which we've not seen for a year, GdC would beat him anyway.

MT - Coming round to Bravemansgame having not been a fan early season - he's very hard to knock. Ahoy Senor may attempt a Coneygree off the front. Heart says GdC, value is Bmg. Against APT.

Rest of Friday

SH - Mares Chase: Allegorie de Vassy might be in a different league.

LH - Mares Chase: Allegorie de Vassy "jumps wildly right". Along with Thyme Hill, she's the one all week to field against the strongest! Jeremy's Flame looks solid while Elimay is too big a price.

MT - Hunter Chase: Rocky's Howya is a young horse and a complete unknown quantity. He's 5/5 in points this season, some of the form of which has worked out nicely.

 

CHARITY BETS

LH - The Real Whacker in Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (SP)

MT - Balco Coastal e/w in the Turners Novices' Chase (16/1)

LM - Milkwood e/w in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (40/1)

 

A Data Driven Look at Cheltenham Festival Handicaps

/in , /by

It's less than two weeks until the tapes rise on the 2023 Cheltenham Festival and, while the Grade 1 action features the very best British and Irish (as well as a soupcon of French) National Hunt horses, it is the handicaps where the biggest scores are often made.

The potential for a windfall is created by deep fields in terms of both quantity and quality: landing on the right one is usually tough. In what follows, then, I'll attempt to focus the lens on areas of punting potential based on recent history. In plain English, I'll share some stats that might find a winner or two in the Cheltenham Festival handicaps.

As a starting point, my mate Ben Aitken (at Narrowing The Field) has kindly given permission for me to share a subset of the excellent research he's put together in a free guide he calls the 'Cheat Sheet'. You can download the full report (it's short but punchy, not unlike me!) here: Grab Ben's CheltFest Handicap Cheat Sheet >>

Ben's research covers the winners and places at the most recent five Festivals, and I'll use the same period for my contributions. I'll suffix Ben's with (NTF).

 

Handicap Hurdles

First off, we'll look at the handicap hurdles as a collective, excepting the Fred Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. That leaves the Coral Cup, Pertemps Final, County Hurdle and Martin Pipe: four races times five years equals 20 handicap hurdle winners and 80 placed horses. Those wins and places were drawn from 478 individual runners.

The first thing to note is that 14 of the 20 winners were trained in Ireland, as were 47 of the placed horses. That majority of both major and minor spoils was accumulated from a minority of the total runners (70% winners, 59% placed horses, from 44% of the runners).

 

 

However, the volume of Irish representation has increased notably in just those few years as the chart below illustrates:

 

 

In 2018 and 2019, there were 34 and 35 raiders respectively; last year, there were 61. Expect another glut of Irish-trained handicap hurdle challengers in 2023.

Some features of non-juvenile handicap hurdle winners in the past five years are as follows:

- All 20 had had ten or fewer handicap hurdle runs, representing 100% of the winners (and 95% of the placed horses) from 90% of the runners (NTF)

- All 20 (100%) winners - and 91% of the placers - had last run between 18 and 98 days ago, from 87% of the runners. Obviously, those numbers are conveniently precise but a recent run or much more than three months away is not a positive. That said, the places are pretty much in line with numerical representation (NTF)

- 19/20 (95%) had no more than one prior handicap hurdle win, from 77% of the runners. 86% of the placed horses also met this criterion (NTF)

 

Other notable snippets include:

- 4 of 20 winners (17 placers) were making their handicap debut (20% of the winners, 21% of the places, from 16% of the runners). While 'cap debs have slightly outpunched their numbers, they've been expensive to follow, losing 45.75 points at SP (-59% ROI - ouch!). The four winners included State Man, Galopin Des Champs and Saint Roi, all subsequent G1 winners.

- 9 of 20 winners (33 placers) ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 (or a Grade A or B handicap) last time, out of 140 qualifiers (45% winners, 41% placers, from 29% of the runners). They returned +88 at starting price.

- Focusing only on horses that ran 123 in 'actual' G1 and G2 races last time, they accounted for 5 of 20 winners and 10 placers from just 24 runners. That's 25% of the winners and 12.5% of the placers, from just 5% of the runners. And they were wildly profitable to follow, too: +127 at SP, and each way betting returned +170 for £1 e/w on each - a total that excludes 25/1 and 33/1 6th places, which many bookmakers would have paid down to.

- 13 of 36 female runners have finished in the top five, including four winners. The four winners were good enough for +43 after paying for the 32 'win only' losers. £1 e/w at standard four place terms would have returned £60.25 with 25% of the 36 females hitting the first four. The four fifth placed females included three at 20/1 and one at 25/1.

- Two of the six UK-trained non-novice handicap hurdle winners (Ch'tibello 12/1 and William Henry 28/1) were making their first start after wind surgery from a cohort of 13 runners. The other eleven finished 10th or worse! 🤷‍♀️

- Only one of the 20 races (5%) was won by a horse aged nine or above, seven placing (9%). 77 (16% of) runners were of that level of maturity.

 

Handicap Chases

As with the handicap hurdles, there were until recently five handicap chases, one of which was a novice handicap chase. That has been usurped by the Mares' Chase - pause for your own personal interjection here - leaving a quartet comprised of the Ultima, Grand Annual, Kim Muir and Festival Plate. Here are a few handicap chase snippets, some care of (NTF).

There were 409 runners in those 20 handicap chases, no dead heats so 20 winners, and 79 placed horses.

- All 20 had finished top 3 in at least one of their previous three starts, as had 70 of 79 placed horses (100% of the winners, 89% of the placers, from 83% of the runners) (NTF)

- 19/20 had previously run at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level (95% winners, 84% placers, from 74% of the runners) (NTF)

Whereas Irish-trained horses won 14/20 in the handicap hurdle section (excluding Fred Winter), it is UK-trained horses that have won 14/20 in the handicap chase division, including a clean sweep in 2022. The six Irish-trained winners in the last five years were all single figure prices, four of them favourite and four trained by Gordon Elliot (or his in absentia proxy, Denise Foster). Irish-trained horses sent off at a double-figure price were 0/54, just three places, in the 20 races in question. (However, they did enjoy greater success in the five years prior).

Conversely, last year's quartet of UK winners were priced at 10/1, 22/1, 28/1 and 40/1!

Willie Mullins rarely saddles a handicap chaser at the Festival, the eight he has done since 2018 failing to make the frame between them.

Handicap chase win and place rates were almost identical for horses wearing headgear compared with those that were not. Likewise, largely, age was not a factor, though the 11- and 12-year-olds placed a little higher than expectation (and won three times) from 30 runners.

Horses that failed to complete last time, or were beaten 30+ lengths, won twice (10% of the winners) and placed 15 times (19% of placers) from 107 runners (26% of runners). The win component saw a circa 80% negative ROI. Oof.

Conversely, last time out winners, or horses beaten two lengths or less, won eight times and placed 26 times from 116 starters (40% of the winners, 33% of the placers, from 28% of the runners). The 169 point profit (142% ROI) at Betfair SP was due entirely to the magnificent but sadly ill-fated Croco Bay's 179/1 winning exchange return.

 

*

There are lies, damned lies, and Festival handicap stats, so please consider the above with caution aforethought. Plots, back class, and luck in transit are all notable imponderables in the punting puzzle. The flip side is that, typically, we'll be getting a square price about any horse we identify that hits its mark, win or place.

Good luck,

Matt

 

2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 14th March 2023)

/in , /by

Each day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day one' feature is the Grade One Unibet Champion Hurdle - a race in which 33 of the last 39 winners won last time out.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends

Tuesday 14th March 2023 (Old Course)   

1.30 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2022 Winner: CONSTITUTION HILL 9/4 jfav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses…..

  • 23 of the last 26 winners won their last race
  • 14 of the last 19 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
  • 11 of the last 13 winners came from the first 4 in the market
  • 10 of the last 11 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
  • 21 of the last 28 winners ran in the last 45 days
  • Irish-trained horses have won 17 of the last 31 runnings
  • 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 16 of the last 18 runnings
  • Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and for 5 of the last 10 years
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
  • 26 of the last 28 winners had raced that same calendar year
  • Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 10 runnings
  • 6 of the last 9 winners had been rated 153 or more
  • 9 of the last 10 winners returned a single-figure price
  • 9 of the last 14 winners were previous bumper winners

Negatives…..

  • Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 26. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
  • Since 1992 all horses (38) wearing head-gear have been beaten
  • We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
  • Just 3 of the last 20 winners came here unbeaten
  • Just 1 of the last 20 winners aged 7 or older
  • Just 2 outright winning favourites in the last 18 runnings
  • 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
  • Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade

2.10 - Sporting Life Arkle Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV

2022 Winner: EDWARDSTONE (5/2 fav)
Trainer – Alan King
Jockey – Tom Cannon
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 18 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
  • 17 of the last 23 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
  • The last 13 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 22)
  • 21 of the last 23 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
  • 13 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over fences before
  • 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 15 of the last 20 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
  • 14 of the last 19 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
  • 8 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over fences
  • Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times
  • Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 8 runnings (all French-bred)
  • 8 of the last 11 winners trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson (4 each)
  • 8 of the last 11 favourites have won

Negatives…..

  • Only 2 of the last 36 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
  • Just 3 of the last 32 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
  • Only 4 of the last 31 winners were older than 7 years-old
  • The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
  • Ex-flat horses have a poor record
  • Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
  • 5 year-olds are 0-16 in the last 13 years
  • Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

    2.50 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV

2022 Winner: CORACH RAMBLER
Trainer – Lucinda Russell
Jockey – Derek Fox
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 23 winners were officially rated 143 or less
  • 15 of the last 22 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 22 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
  • 16 of the last 22 were novices or second season chasers
  • 8 of the last 15 winners were rated between 142-146 (7 between 142-145)
  • Horses rated 140+ have won 14 of the last 22 runnings
  • 9 of the last 20 won last time out
  • Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
  • 9 of the last 11 winners wore headgear
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
  • Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
  • All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
  • 5 of the last 8 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
  • 4 of the last 9 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Trophy that season
  • 11 of the last 14 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Northern-based runners have a good record

Negatives….

  • Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 12 of the last 18 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8. The 2022 winner (Corach Rambler carried 10st 2lbs)
  • Horses aged 11 or older are just 3 from 54 to even get placed
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 24
  • Only 3 winners in the last 14 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
  • Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
  • The Irish have won just 2 of the last 54 runnings (since 1967)
  • Irish-trained runners are 0-35 in the last 16 runnings

    3.30 - Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2022 Winner: HONEYSUCKLE (1st 8/11 fav)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 33 of the last 39 won last time out
  • Horses unbeaten that season often do well (10 of last 12)
  • The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 20 of the last 24 runnings between them
  • 9 of the last 14 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
  • The Irish have won 15 of the last 24 runnings
  • Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 13 (10 in total)
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 12 runnings
  • 27 of the last 33 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (11 of last 16)
  • 14 of the last 24 winners had won at the Festival before
  • 25 of the last 38 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
  • The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (4 winners, 6 places in last 15 runnings)
  • 14 of the last 27 winners started as flat horses
  • The last 8 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 8 times, including 3 of the last 6 years
  • 6 of the last 14 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
  • Mares are currently 4 from 9 during last 9 runnings
  • 9 of the last 14 winners were (4) Mullins or (5) Henderson-trained

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
  • 5 year-olds are just 2 from 111 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
  • Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-30 in the last 39 runnings)
  • Just 1 of the last 16 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
  • Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are just 4 from 32, but – Epatante 2020) – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
  • Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
  • International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 19 years)
  • Only 2 of the last 24 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before
  • The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was 52 years ago (Bula)

    4.10 - Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV

2022 Winner: MARIE’S ROCK
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

  • Follow Irish-trained mares (12 of last 15)
  • The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 11 of the last 15 runnings
  • 8 of the last 15 favourites have won
  • 12 of the last 12 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
  • 14 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 2m4f
  • Willie Mullins has trained 9 of the last 15 winners
  • Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
  • Novices generally do well
  • 10 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
  • 6 of the last 11 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
  • Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
  • Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
  • 11 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • 12 of the last 15 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males

Negatives….

  • Avoid front-runners
  • British-bred mares are currently 3-86
  • Just 1 outright favourite in the last 8 runnings
  • Just one winner from last 31 runners to wear headgear have won
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
  • Benie De Dieux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
  • Just 1 winner aged 8+ (Quevega)

    4.50 - Boodles Juvenile Hurdle (Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle) 2m 87y) ITV

2022 Winner: BRAZIL (10/1)
Trainer – Padraig Roche
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 18 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
  • French bred horses have a good record
  • 9 of the last 18 winners started their careers in France
  • Respect Fillies
  • 12 of the last 18 winners carried 11st+
  • 9 of the last 18 winners won last time out
  • 8 of the last 12 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
  • 11 of the last 18 had run in the last 25 days
  • David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (3 of last 10) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
  • 6 of the last 11 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 11 priced 25/1+)
  • 12 of the last 18 winners returned a double-figure price
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • 13 of the last 18 winners were rated between 124-134
  • 8 of the last 15 winners were British-trained
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 13 runnings
  • 13 of the last 18 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

Negatives….

  • Just 2 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
  • Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 38 between them
  • Just 3 of the last 18 winners rated 135+
  • Horses bred in Britain are 0-59 (last 14 years)
  • Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 18 (just 2 placed in top 5 too)
  • Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
  • No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
  • Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 18

    5.30 – National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV

2022 Winner: STATTLER 2/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Patrick Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses…..

  • 13 of the last 21 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 12 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old (23 of the last 32)
  • 9 of the last 13 winners had run 5+ times over fences
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
  • 6 of the last 12 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
  • 8 of the last 16 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
  • 9 of the last 13 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
  • 9 of the last 12 winners returned a single-figure price
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • 8 of the last 12 winners Irish-trained
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 145 (or more)
  • Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (6 winners)
  • Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-22)
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 4 places (from 16 rides)
  • Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 8 of the last 12 (3, Codd, 3 Mullins, 2 O’Connor)
  • Jockey Jamie Codd has won 3 of the last 8
  • Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 10 runners
  • 3 of the last 5 winners owned by Ronnie Bartlett

Negatives….

  • 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 81 since 1989
  • Just 4 of the last 12 winners were top-rated
  • Favourites have won just 3 of the last 13 runnings
  • Just 2 of the last 32 winners were aged 6 years-old
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 19
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
  • Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
  • Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 12)
  • Just 2 winners in the last 14 returned bigger than 12/1

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 17 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

 

Cheltenham Festival: The 15 year View

/in , /by

It is almost that time! For many, the Cheltenham Festival is the highlight of not just the National Hunt season, but the whole racing year, writes Dave Renham.

In this article I will attempt to break down the facts and figures going back as far as 2008. This gives us 15 years’ worth of data to crunch, which is plenty to get our teeth into. Fifteen is also a neat number as we can easily compare 5–year periods (2008–2012; 2013–2017; 2018–2022) to see what, if anything has changed.

My main focus will be looking at the data as a whole – market factors, last time out (LTO) factors, etc. At the end I will delve briefly into Grade 1 contests only. In terms of profit and loss, I am going to use Betfair Starting Price, and take into account commission on potential profits.

Cheltenham Festival Stats for All Races

Since 2016 there have been 28 races in total at each year's Cheltenham Festival and that will be the same in 2023: four days with seven races on each day, and a rich variety of different race types and distances.

 

Market Factors

Let's first examine the results by market price. Although I am quoting profits/losses to BSP, the market price bands I am examining are based on Industry SPs. This is simply because we have more defined prices for this group:

 

The Evens to 9/4 bracket has proved the most profitable in ROI terms and, taking shorter priced runners as a whole, the market has been a pretty good guide. Combining all runners priced 6/1 or shorter we have seen 182 winners from 807 (SR 22.6%) for a small BSP loss of £7.42 (ROI –0.9%).

Despite these relatively positive figures, there are strong fluctuations year on year as the graph below shows.

 

 

As you can see, the win percentage / strike rate peaked in 2016 at 33.33%, whereas 2010, 2014 and 2017 saw percentages dip under half that figure. Eight of the years would have turned a profit, seven a loss. Hence one needs to be aware that results for runners priced 6/1 or shorter are difficult to predict for a one–off Festival, 28 races always being a small sample size. However, having said that, taking the overall data into account, one could do worse than focusing attention on this price band.

 

Performance of Favourites at the Cheltenham Festival (2008-2022)

A look at favourites next. Taking all favourites as a group (clear and joint favourites), they have secured 113 wins from 443 races (SR 25.5%). However, backing all of them would have returned £43.12 less than staked, equating to a loss of nearly 10 pence in the £. Before ‘binning’ favourites as a betting option though, let me share the stats comparing clear favourites with joint favourites:

 

 

There is quite a difference here! Of course, it is sometimes difficult to predict who the favourite will be pre-race which can be an issue for trying to exploit ‘market data’. However, as a general rule, the stronger the favourite the better. What I mean by that is, horses who are a much shorter price than the second horse in the betting tend to do best here at the festival. AND of course this type of favourite can be confidently predicted before the off.

For favourite fans here are a few profitable angles in relation to clear market leaders:

 

 

The best figures come from horses aged 7 to 9: we do need to be careful bracketing runners by age, in case there is back-fitting in play. However, this age bracket of runner is around the optimum age for high level jump racing and much is known about such runners. By that I mean we usually have detailed form lines for runners within this age bracket. Of course there are races at the festival where 7 to 9yos do not take part, but in the races they do, if any clear favourite is in this age band, I believe it demands close scrutiny.

We will examine Irish trainers versus UK trainers in more detail later, but Irish-trained clear favourites have done well. If we combine the clear favourite records of Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Henry De Bromhead, 39.1% of them won (54 wins from 138) for a profit of £27.25 (ROI +19.7%). The ‘rise’ of Irish runners will be a theme of this piece, and this can be seen when we look at a year by year breakdown of clear favourites that were trained in Ireland.

 

 

The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise). Essentially this means that around 70% of all races in the past four years have had an Irish-trained favourite. Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4.

 

Last Time Out (LTO) performance

Cheltenham Festival Performance by LTO finishing position (2008-2022)

Onto last time out factors now with my initial focus being on where a horse finished in its most recent race:

 

 

Although horses that either finished 3rd LTO or 5th or worse have made a profit, this is down to big prices skewing the figures. As we can see, strike rates are low across the board, but if there is an area to concentrate on, it does seem to be last day winners. This is because they are the biggest group, have by far the best record win wise, and they have just about broken even.

Earlier I noted that LTO winners that went on to head the market at the festival have proved profitable. What about other areas?

 

Performance of LTO winners by Gender of Horse 

I want to share some gender data with you in terms of the gender of horse. Male LTO winners make up around 90% of all such runners, but female LTO winners have comfortably outperformed their male counterparts at the festival in terms of strike rate:

 

 

194 female LTO winners have run at the festival with 31 winning. Not only that, if you had backed all of them ‘blind’ they would have secured you a profit of £116.24 (ROI 59.2%). If sticking to solely mixed sex races (races open to both sexes) the stats, albeit from a small sample, are even more impressive: 13 wins from 69 (SR 18.8%) for a profit of £116.14 (ROI +168.3%). Indeed, looking at the last three festivals (2020, 2021 and 2022) LTO winning female horses running in mixed sex races have won 8 races from just 20 runners!

 

Performance of LTO winners by LTO Race Class

Time to examine whether the class of race that the horse won last time out makes a difference... and it certainly seems to!

 

 

Horses that won a Grade 1 contest LTO have scored close to one race in every four which is impressive. Backing all runners would have yielded a good profit also of over 22p in the £. Horses winning LTO in either Grade 2, 3 or Listed company have very similar strike rates, but it is Listed LTO winners who have created the best profit (£49.48 returning 41p in the £).

LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have by far the poorest strike rate as you would expect. They have incurred losses of £116.97 (ROI -8.3%) over the period of study. LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have not surprisingly struggled even more when the race at Cheltenham is a Graded one – in these races their record reads 50 wins from 957 (SR 5.2%) for a loss of £149.46 (ROI -15.6%). Losses have been steepest in Grade 1 contests with your £1 bet returning on average 79p (loss of 21p in the £).

 

Performance of LTO winners by LTO Course

The next question I will try and address is, does the track at which the horse ran LTO make a difference? One might expect that horses that ran at a top track last time would outperform those that didn’t. The table below looks at any course that has sent 75 or more runners next time out to the Cheltenham Festival. I have ordered it by win strike rate:

 

 

What immediately resonates is the record of Irish tracks: the top four in the list are all Irish tracks and runners from all four (Thurles, Leopardstown, Naas and Navan) have secured decent profits at the festival to BSP. Irish tracks also take positions 6 and 7, giving them six of the first seven spots in the list. Focusing on those top four courses, here is win strike rate breakdown by 5-year groups:

 

 

The last decade has seen a notable uptick in performance which mirrors the type of pattern we saw earlier in terms of the increasing number of Irish runners that have started clear favourite. In that favourite data, the years 2008 to 2012 saw the smallest market leader numbers by some margin. Of course, we know about the dominance of Irish winners at recent Festivals but there is still plenty on which to chew in relation to possible value edges.

Before moving on, any system punters out there may want to consider an angle based on last time out runners from these four Irish tracks. It combines some positives we have already noted and is as follows:

  1. LTO run at Leopardstown, Naas, Navan or Thurles
  2. LTO run in Graded / Listed Race
  3. Finished in first three LTO

The results were:

 

Ten of the 15 years would have yielded a profit, and a very good one in nine of those ten positive renewals. Three years made small losses, two years quite big losses.

Sceptics will naturally be highlighting the fact that this system idea is back-fitted, and to a great extent they would be right. However, the rules are simple, logical, and there are not many of them, all of which is positive from a system building perspective.

I am definitely not advocating that this system is one that punters should use ‘blind’ at the 2023 festival, but it may offer a potential starting point, to at least give you a pool of runners to consider. Also, for readers with little time to study form, I am confident there are plenty of systems around that are less likely to produce a profit at the Festival than this one.

 

Irish runners versus UK runners

We have already noted some positives connected with Irish runners or those that raced in Ireland last time. It goes without saying that the vast majority of horses racing at Cheltenham that raced in Ireland last time out would have been from Irish stables; in fact 97% of them were. Hence there definitely has been a strong Irish bias.

Below is a breakdown of the records of all UK trainers versus all Irish trainers:

 

 

Looking at this, we can the Irish bias in all its glory. Irish-trained runners have more than twice the strike rate of their counterparts trained in UK. Moreover, they've enjoyed a 55p in the £ difference in their returns, and a clear differential between the A/E indices.

In recent years their stranglehold has got stronger and stronger. Below shows the number of Irish wins by 5-year groups:

 

 

These figures are skewed inasmuch as the last five years have seen a big increase in the number of Irish horses travelling across. However, the win strike rate for Irish runners in the five years from 2008 to 2012 was 6.8%, whereas in the past five years (2018 to 2022) it has been 9.7%. So the Irish are sending more runners than they did more than a decade ago, and are winning on average more often. That, obviously, is a potent combination.

Indeed, Irish runners have outperformed UK runners in terms of win strike rate in the last ten festivals starting from 2013 as the graph below neatly illustrates.

 

 

The UK runners did close the gap in 2022, after a dreadful 2021. Will they be able to get any closer this year? Only time will tell, but you have to expect the Irish to come out on top overall once more.

 

Grade 1 Races

For the final segment of this article I want to have a brief look at Grade 1 races. These races comprise 50% of the 28 Festival contests and, in the last 15 years, they have accounted for roughly the same percentage of all the Festival contests (some of the newer races being upgraded during the review period).

The betting market comes under the spotlight first.

 

Market Factors in Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 Races

I have split the prices as I did earlier in the article and here are the Grade 1 only figures:

 

 

The data show a poor record for odds-on runners, but in general short- to mid-range prices do quite well. The cut off price looks to be at 14/1 – at this price and bigger Grade 1 runners have performed poorly. Strike rates are below what is the 14/1+ norm for all National Hunt races and losses have been significant.

If we look at market position data instead, clear favourites in Grade 1 races have just edged into profit, albeit by only £6.77 (ROI +3.6%); backing ALL runners in the top four in the betting would have yielded a profit of £55.24 (ROI +6.8%).

 

LTO performance in Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 Races

One group of runners to avoid in Grade 1 races seems to be those that ran relatively modestly or poorly last time out. Horses that finished 5th or worse on their prep run have accounted for just eight winners from 282 runners (SR 2.8%) for a hefty BSP loss of £129.01 (ROI -45.8%). Meanwhile, last day winners have secured 141 wins from 1200 runners (SR 11.8%). They, too, made a loss but nowhere near as severe, at -£50.53 (ROI -4.2%).

 

LTO Race Class

A look next at race class on their previous start (all Cheltenham Grade 1 runners).

 

 

There is a sliding scale of strike rates as you would expect. Horses that raced outside Graded/Listed company have a poor record.

If we focus only on LTO winners, it is interesting that each LTO Graded category made a small individual profit to BSP, as did those who won a Listed contest.

 

LTO course

In terms of the course Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival entries ran at last time, Irish courses have again outperformed UK ones. This time around I have grouped all courses in each country for the comparison:

 

 

It is no surprise to see horses that ran in Ireland LTO coming out on top in terms of strike rate, returns and A/E indices. There is, however, one Irish course where caution might be advised, and that is Gowran Park. Just 2 winners from 90 runners in the last 15 years prepped there, with losses amounting to over 88p in the £.

 

Gender of Horse (LTO winners only)

We saw earlier that LTO winners that were female had a better strike rate than males, as well as proving profitable. Focusing on Grade 1 races only, this pattern is replicated once more:

 

 

A strike rate of close to 1 in 5 is excellent and female LTO winners have secured a profit in Grade 1 races of £66.94 (ROI +85.8%). Hence any female running this year at Cheltenham who won last time out might be a horse to consider as a betting opportunity.

 

Irish runners versus UK runners

It is abundantly clear from what we have seen to date that, in general, Irish-trained runners outperform those trained in the UK at the Cheltenham Festival. From the LTO course (by country) figures we can see that this is also the case in Grade 1 races (as most of the runners that ran in Ireland last time are Irish-based). What I would like to share is the number of Irish wins in Grade 1 races broken down by year:

 

 

The last ten years (from 2013 onwards) have seen Irish runners dominate these events more and more. Indeed, in the last two years we have witnessed double figure victories and, considering there were only 14 Grade 1 races in each of 2021 and 2022, this is mightily impressive (or concerning, if you're a British-based racing administrator, trainer or owner). To spell it out, in the most recent two Cheltenham Festivals, Irish runners have secured 22 wins compared with just six for the UK.

 

Key Takeaways

Before winding down, here are some of the key stats I suggest you keep in mind:

  1. The betting market is a good guide. Clear favourites are reasonable value in all races including Grade 1 contests. Focusing attention on horses priced 6/1 or shorter should give a sporting chance of making a profit. In Grade 1 races avoiding horses priced 14/1 or bigger will usually save you some cash.
  2. Irish runners are likely to outperform their UK counterparts. This is especially probable in Grade 1 races. The trainers Henry de Bromhead, Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have good records with favourites.
  3. Female horses have a good record when following up a win last time. This is true even in Grade 1 contests.
  4. A prep run at Leopardstown, Naas, Navan or Thurles has provided good profits over the past 15 years.
  5. Last time out Grade 1 winners are generally decent value.
  6. In Grade 1 races it looks best to avoid horses that finished 5th or worse in their final prep.

 

Hopefully this article has offered some good general guidance to follow, with the hope that it will find a winner or two along the way. This is my last article before Cheltenham, so good luck, and I'll see you on the other side with some early thoughts for the 2023 flat campaign!

- Dave R

2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 15th March 2023)

/in , /by

Each day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day two' feature is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Willie Mullins won for the first time in 2022!

Cheltenham Festival Trends

Wednesday 15th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

    1.30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV

2022 Winner: SIR GERHARD (8/11 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 6 of the last 9 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • 12 of the last 14 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
  • 18 of the last 22 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 22 of the last 28 winners won last time out
  • 27 of the last 28 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • The Irish have won 13 of the last 20 (8 of last 9)
  • Horses rated 150+ do well
  • 11 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
  • 23 of the last 28 winners (including last 11) had won at least one bumper race
  • 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6
  • In the last 11 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 21 of the 33 top 3 places
  • 22 of the last 24 were NH bred
  • 16 of the last 24 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 12 had won an Irish Point)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 5 winners in last 15 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 5

Negatives….

  • Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 57 (since 1988) (but was last year’s winner Sir Gerhard)
  • Only two of the last 36 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 19 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 17 years)

2.10 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV

2022 Winner: L’HOMME PRESSE (9/4 fav)
Trainer – Venetia Williams
Jockey – Charlie Deutsch
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

  • 5 of the last 14 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Mighty Potter won this year’ race)
  • The last 21 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
  • 15 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
  • 25 of the last 28 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 13 of the last 16 (18 of last 23)
  • 11 of the last 17 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 13 winners were beaten on their chase debut
  • 8 of the last 15 winners had won a bumper before
  • 8 of the last 16 favourites won
  • The last 8 winners were rated 150+
  • 10 of the last 11 winners returned single-figures in the betting
  • 20 of the last 22 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
  • Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
  • Irish bred horses are 21 from the last 26
  • 11 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 7 of the last 14 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 19 between them)
  • 25 of the last 30 were novice hurdling last season
  • 6 of the last 13 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (54 of the last 56 winners had)
  • 12 of the last 16 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
  • The last 8 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 2 of the last 23 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
  • French bred horses are 1-from-39 (last 16 years, but last year’s winner L’Homme Presse was a French-bred)
  • The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 11 years
  • Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 23 winners)
  • Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
  • Horses in headgear have a poor record

    2.40 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV

2022 Winner: COMMANDER OF FLEET (50/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Shane Fitzgerald
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 18 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 18 of the last 22 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had run at the Festival before (8 had top 4 finish)
  • 10 of the last 14 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 9 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 140’s
  • 14 of the last 23 winners aged 6 or 7
  • 9 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 12 of the last 17 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 21 of the last 28 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (7 wins in last 13 years)
  • 10 of the last 21 winners were French-Bred
  • 15 of the last 29 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 14)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (12 of last 14 winners)
  • 15 of the last 18 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott is 3 from 12
  • 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
  • The last 4 winners wore headgear

Negatives….

  • Just one winning favourite in the last 19 years (2020)
  • Only 4 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 308 to even place since 1999
  • Just 5 winners since 2000 aged 8+
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 47 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 44 since 2010

    3.30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV

2022 Winner: ENERGUMENE
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 22 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 4 of the last 10 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 24 of the last 38 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 23 between them
  • Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 11
  • 28 of the last 36 winners aged between 7-9
  • 14 of the last 21 winners won last time out
  • 17 of the last 20 winners had run that calendar year
  • 39 of the last 41 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 16 of the last 23 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 16 winners were French-bred
  • 12 of the last 20 winners were second season chasers
  • 16 of the last 18 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
  • 20 of the last 24 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 16 of the last 23 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
  • 7 of the last 12 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
  • Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 39 years
  • Just 1 winner in last 18 had run 4+ times that season
  • Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 1 win in the race (Energumene) (1-from-14)
  • Just 1 of the last 21 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 13 of the last 17 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
  • Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-4
  • Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 48 years
  • Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 44 years
  • 5 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost
  • Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)

    4.10 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV

2022 Winner: DELTA WORK (5/2 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 15 of the last 18 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 15 of the last 18 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
  • 21 of the last 25 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 9 of the last 18 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
  • 14 of the last 18 winners had run on the course before
  • Respect jockeys Keith Donoghue (3 wins) and Davy Russell (2 wins)
  • 14 or the last 18 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • 8 of the last 12 winners were aged 8 or 9
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 12 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 4 of the last 6 runnings
  • 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
  • 10 of the last 18 winners had run in the NH Chase before
  • 5 of the last 8 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
  • The last 7 winners wore headgear
  • 8 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but last year’s winner (Delta Work) was running for the first time over the X-Country course
  • Just 3 of the last 13 winners won their last race
  • Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 100, but the 2020 winner was 6
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 16
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

    4.50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV

2022 Winner: GLOBAL CITIZEN
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Kielan Woods
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

  • 7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more
  • 16 of the last 19 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 19 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 10 runnings
  • 9 of the last 13 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 14 winners novices or second season chasers
  • 11 of the last 17 winners aged between 6-8
  • 13 of the last 19 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 19
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 11 placed)
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 6 of the last 14 runnings
  • 5 of the last 8 winners won after a 91+ day break
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-147
  • 10 of the last 12 winners rated between 138-150
  • 7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more in weight
  • 20 of the last 23 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 27 runnings, but last year’s winner was a 10 year-old
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 8 winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 16
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 34 since 2005
  • Only 2 of the last 18 winners were favourites
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

    5.30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV

2022 Winner: FACILE VEGA (15/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 28 of the last 30 had won last time out (all of last 19)
  • 23 of the last 30 winners trained in Ireland
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (23 from 39)
  • 21 of the last 30 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 23 of the last 30 were Irish-bred
  • 11 of the last 22 winners were second season horses
  • 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 19 of the last 30 winners aged 5 years-old
  • 19 of the last 21 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 12 of the last 20 had been beaten in a race before
  • 6 of the last 13 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (12 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020 and 2021
  • The Irish lead the British 24-7 in the race history
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
  • 11 of the last 20 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • Mares are 3-19 in the last 18 runnings
  • 6 of the last 7 winners had run in February
  • 3 of the last 4 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
  • Just 2 of the last 12 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
  • Only 4 of the last 12 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 65 since 2000 (Cue Card)
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 17 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

 

I Know What You Did Last Spring: Making Long Range Cheltenham Festival Projections

/in , /by

As late March heralds longer days and flat racing fiestas in the coming weeks and months, those of us with a Cheltenham Festival-sized gap in our hearts and minds (and, perhaps, wallets) are already projecting wistfully forward to fifty weeks hence and the 2023 Cleeve Hill jamboree. If that sounds about 85% of the way along the tragic-desperate continuum, it is mitigated by the fact that such far-reaching forward-looking is not mutually exclusive with more impending matters on the level.

The focus of what follows, then, is a last lingering look back - and forward - with the aim of trying to isolate an ante post ticket (or two) whose value might subsequently be enhanced. No sooner had the Festival winners been hosed down than odds for possible return targets were chalked up; most such offers will look pretty thin when the time comes but some will not. Emboldened as I am always by the prospect of a punt at a price, I've looked back at the last decade to see if there were any clues from the previous year's spring festivals that we ought to have heeded. If that doesn't yet make sense, it will do soon enough.

Where next for the Champion Bumper winner?

I'll start with a 'what happened next' for those Cheltenham Festival winners that typically didn't have a previous spring campaign under their belt, the ones emerging from the Champion Bumper.

 

 

The first thing to say is that five of the prior nine Champion Bumper winners did not even get to the following year's Cheltenham Festival. The second, an aside, is to apologise for references to the Albert Bartlett as 'Spuds': it's a lazy shorthand so forgive me, please.

Facile Vega, the very good winner of this year's Champion Bumper, is no bigger than 3/1 for next year's Supreme; that looks ungenerous given only one of the previous nine winners even contested that race, Ballyandy finishing fourth in 2016 - as a 3/1 chance. That ten year time span is more unhelpful than disingenuous in that, a year earlier than the snapshot, in 2012, Champagne Fever completed part two of the Bumper-Supreme double.

More interesting, if indeed anything is interesting when fishing for patterns (which may or may not be mirages) in shallow pools, is that two of the previous three Champion Bumper winners - Envoi Allen and Sir Gerhard - went on to win the Ballymore as odds on shots. Facile Vega is a top-priced 6/1 for that longer novice hurdle and, if there's a bet here, that must be it. After all, his mum, Quevega, couldn't win in Graded company at two miles (from two tries, 3rd and 9th) but was almost unbeatable at two-and-a-half and three; and sire Walk In The Park's best strike rate is comfortably at around two and a half miles.

In the slightly longer grass, a few of the placed horses from the Festival flat race have won the opener twelve months later, so perhaps a second glance at American Mike, 14/1 in a place, is merited. (I believe James's Gate, as he's owned by the owners of Ballymore Properties, will go to that race so he, too, might figure in considerations if only because we know what his target will be, all other things being equal).

Observations:
Champion Bumper to Supreme is generally not a path trodden by winners of the former, but to the Ballymore has been a recent 'thing'. 6/1 about Facile Vega for the Ballymore might look too big if he can actually get to next year's meeting.

Placed horses in the Champion Bumper have a fair record in winning the Supreme. American Mike's 14/1 quote in a place likely won't last but there is general 12's available.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

For all races that follow there is typically at least one season's previous form with which to work; as such, the format laid out for the Supreme will be replicated for all of the remaining Festival Grade 1's. Here's how it looks:

 

 

We can now see Champagne Fever in the bottom row of the table - see, I told you I wasn't being 'convenient'! We can also see that Appreciate It (and we cannot see that in 2011 Al Ferof) won the Supreme having been second in the Champion Bumper. But what is most striking if you're desperate to bet this race now is that almost none of the Supreme winners in the past decade were on the mainstream radar a year earlier.

This table is, at least partially, the inverse of the Champion Bumper bit above and, as such, not much else needs saying, except tread very carefully: we may not have even heard of next year's Supreme winner yet!

Observations:
We quite possibly do not even know of the existence of next year's Supreme winner right now. American Mike is possibly the one for pin-stickers with a chance to replicate two recent Champion Bumper runners up who scored in the Supreme.

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

The intermediate distance Grade 1 novice hurdle and usually a classy affair, at the front end at least.

 

 

On top of the already made point about the pair of Champion Bumper winners who rocked up here as shorties a year later and got it done, the key takeaway is to keep a close eye on winning Irish bumper favourites away from the Festival spotlight. The thinking - and I do appreciate how tenuous some of this stuff is - is that they're favoured because of a level of ability already demonstrated, either at home or on the track; and they've been brought along relatively steadily out of the glare of wider perception. Related, perhaps, is that four of the five to fit this blueprint had also already won a point to point.

Both Yorkhill and Bob Olinger emerged from the same Gowran Park bumper won this year by Kalanisi Star. He won easily but recorded a lesser rating and is trained by the unfashionable (though eminently capable) Oliver McKiernan. Similarly, City Island (a winner for the race sponsors) and Faugheen both progressed from Punchestown's late May meeting, so that's a fixture to keep onside.

Observations:
Aside from maybe betting Facile Vega for the 2023 Ballymore, keep an eye on well-touted winners of spring bumpers in Ireland outside of the Punchestown Festival, especially if they already have a point to point verdict on their scorecard.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

The potato race, as it is affectionately - and effectively, because who knew Albert Bartlett was a producer of starchy tubers beforehand? - known, is the staying division for novice hurdlers. Here's what recent AB victors were doing a year or so prior.

 

 

It may be more correct to say, here's what recent AB victors were not doing a year or so prior. They were not running in the Champion Bumper (though Briar Hill fell as 2/1 favourite for this in 2013) and they were not running in the Aintree bumpers. They might, however, have been on the podium in one of the non-Grade 1 National Hunt Flat races at the Punchestown Festival; and all the more interesting if they'd recently changed hands having won a point to point.

That ostensibly (and quite possibly actually) contrived route to potato riches was trodden by all of 33/1 Very Wood, 50/1 Minella Indo, and 5/1 Monkfish since 2014. A fourth winner in the sample, 33/1 Kilbricken Storm, also emerged as a point winner the previous spring. That's hardly surprising considering that, firstly, the vast majority of point to points are run at three miles, the same range as the Albert Bartlett; and, secondly, maiden races between the flags usually place a premium on jumping ability in young horses.

Observation:
Have a look at those emerging from points to make the frame in non-Grade 1 Punchestown Festival bumpers. They'll be a price, though history suggests they might be a bigger price on the day next March!

Champion Hurdle

After some middling attempts to find order in perfect randomness around the novice hurdle cohort, we move to the relative structure of the two mile Championship hurdle race, aptly known as the Champion Hurdle.

 

 

The column upon which to focus attention here is 'Prev Cheltenham' - it will not be a surprise that nine of the last ten Champion Hurdle winners were present a year earlier, nor particularly that they ran - generally placed - in a mixture of the novice hurdles, Mares' Hurdle and Champion Hurdle itself.

When contemplating such folly as an ante post bet a year out it is important to think about the shape of the race, in terms of how much is known already and how much is still to emerge. In the novice events, next to nothing is known at this stage while in the Champion Hurdle we probably have the vast majority of intel available, barring the maintenance of form and fitness.

What I am trying to say is that asking for both Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill to either regress materially or produce sick notes is a big request. Of the other potentials suggested by previous spring form, none appeal as capable of getting even much beyond the level of an Epatante or a Zanahiyr, let alone the champ and the champ elect. Of course, stuff happens, but we're already going out on more limbs than a millipede has in its possession and this, friends, is a bridge too far.

Marie's Rock has next to no chance in the Champion Hurdle, likewise the aforementioned Champion placed horses and, from the novice ranks, only Sir Gerhard looks a credible threat. He's 8/1 and he ain't sufficiently credible to legitimise that as an exciting punt. State Man and Vauban are unexposed sorts but we're back to Katchit in 2008 for the previous Triumph Hurdle winner to double up, and no horse has emerged from a handicap to win the big one a year later; Katchit, it should be added, had nothing of the immensity of Honeysuckle or Constitution Hill in his way.

Observation:
Not one to be getting too far ahead of ourselves about. Two seriously talented, career unbeaten, including in multiple Grade 1, horses - a race to hope they both show up for, and savour when they do. They're probably fair enough prices and there are more interesting (it's all relative) wagering options elsewhere.

Stayers' Hurdle

The Stayers' Hurdle, a Championship (nominally, at least) three-miler, is one of the more inscrutable - or less scrutable - open races at Le Fez. Its roll of honour reads more 'who?' than who's who, and there is very little in the previous spring Festival form from which to piece together even the most circumstantial of cases. And yes, I do appreciate that hasn't stopped me above and below this segment!

 

 

Podium finishers in the staying novice races at Aintree - the Sefton - and Punchestown - Irish Mirror - have provided four winners since 2015, and that's the best I have.

Observation:
This is akin to trying to sculpt water.

Arkle Challenge Trophy

And so to the Grade 1 steeplechases, the first of which is the Arkle, a two mile test of speed and jumpcraft (not a word, should be). In the last ten years, Willie's won four and Nicky has won three. That's as good a starting point as any.

 

 

Three of that Hendo/Mullins septet won the Supreme while the third Seven Barrows scorer won the Ballymore. The only beaten horse from a Festival novice hurdle to win the Arkle twelve months on in the last ten years was Duc Des Genievres and I'm still unable to explain how that happened.

We also know stuff like five-year-olds have struggled since their allowance was removed; the last of that vintage was Voy Por Ustedes, in receipt of five pounds weight for age, in 2006. So we can ignore those at this stage.

The obvious one is Sir Gerhard, comfortable winner of the Ballymore and already a point winner. Talk of his jumping frailty looks overplayed to my, granted somewhat untutored, eye and he is likely to take high rank in the novice chase division next term. I do worry that, as his flag form - and the Ballymore - implies, he could go towards the Golden Miller (Marsh/JLT/Turners) rather than the shorter race; and any early fencing blemishes will be amplified in the media which might make connections twitchy. That's enough to swerve him at the price, 5/1 tops, for now.

At double those odds is Appreciate It, nine lengths back in the Champion Hurdle after a year off the track. He ran a fair bit better than his finishing position suggests and I think we'll see a much improved performance, and subsequent contraction in his Arkle odds, after Punchestown. Even if he beats Honeysuckle there, which I don't really expect, he's likely to dodge Con Hill and go fencing next term. Footpad's was a not dissimilar profile for the same trainer, Willie Mullins, in 2018.

Zanahiyr might be another worth a thought, though he's not generally priced up: there's a good chance I don't know something I should do about the chances of his Arkle participation.

Observation:
The key is to work out who will be avoiding the perceived strength in next year's Champion Hurdle field while still being good enough to contest an Arkle. Appreciate It is a double figure price and may shorten for all sorts of targets if getting close to Honeysuckle at Punchestown.

Golden Miller Novices' Chase

Formally known as the Golden Miller, we'll stick with that for a race that in its short life has had as many sponsors/names (Jewson, Centenary, JLT, Marsh, Turners) as the Festival wants days. It's an intermediate distance novice chase, which means that even more guesswork is required in terms of horses being suited to its conditions rather than simply avoiding the level of competition in either the Arkle or RSA/Brown Advisory/Broadway. Quirkily, this year's Golden Miller had two of the very hottest novices around, Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs, and scared away another, L'Homme Presse, who was originally mooted to take this middle path.

That kind of double bluff is commonplace in a race whose ante post waters are further muddied by the vast array of talent in certain yards, many of which trainer and/or jockey and/or owner are eager to see in separate divisions in March.

Perhaps the previous spring will shed some much needed luminescence on these murky cogitations. [Why use one syllable when many more are available?!]

 

 

The Ballymore is the one, isn't it? Three Golden Miller winners were doubling up on a Ballymore score a year before; three more ran down the track in the same race. The winner, we know, was Sir Gerhard and I increasingly feel this is where he'll wind up - and with an obvious chance, of course.

But perhaps it's worth looking down the field for another arrow at a price that accommodates at least some of the additional risk. In that spirit, I offer up Three Stripe Life,  beaten by Sir Gerhard thrice in six career starts. But stay with me a minute, because he actually got closest - within four lengths of Sir G in the Ballymore - when everything else, bar the last flight tumbler Journey With Me, was waiting for a bus home - and connections would surely have been emboldened by his finishing effort on a first try beyond two miles. He might be playable at 14/1 for an interest.

Journey With Me, too, is not impossible. He might take a different tack, as might the others mentioned, but that is surely factored into a quote of 25/1 with one joint. He was unbeaten in a point, a bumper and two novice hurdles prior to being booked for third in the Ballymore; and he represents the same owner, trainer and, presumably, jockey as this year's Golden Miller winner, Bob Olinger (for all that we know how lucky he was).

Observation:
Look to the Ballymore form. Sir Gerhard is obvious but this has been a race for apparent rather than obvious winners as the abundance of those returned 3/1 and 4/1 attests; so perhaps TSL or JWM offer a sliver of value.

Broadway Novices' Chase

Familiarly known as the RSA Chase, but now sponsored by Brown Advisory, who used to sponsor one of the handicaps - this sponsorship lark is important but it really is getting very confusing - this is the three mile novice chase championship. Below are the last ten winners and what they were up to a year or so prior.

 

 

Most of the Broadway winners ran at Cheltenham the previous year and ran well there. What is interesting, to me at least, is that three of the seven to dance at the Chelto party a year prior did so in a handicap rather than a Grade 1. Don Poli won the Martin Pipe, Presenting Percy won the Pertemps Final, and Topofthegame was second in the Coral Cup. The last named was actually the highest rated of the trio, on 150 at the time and a second season hurdler - the other pair novices - and 143 was the lowest rating of them.

No horse from the top two in the handicaps this year fits the Broadway profile, but third placed Hollow Games ran on well over the two and a half miles of the Martin Pipe to be third, carrying 11-09, second top weight. Rated 143, it's far from impossible the £255,000 sales buy could emerge as an RSA contender.

The lazy route into the Broadway is the Albert Bartlett winner but, as can be seen, only the exceptional (I think, would like to see more of him) Monkfish doubled up in the last ten years. Two beaten horses from that race, O'Faolains Boy and Blaklion, prevailed in the fencing equivalent but trying to work out which, and why, from this year's potato crop (see what I did there?) is beyond me. That said, there are reasons to believe that Hillcrest is a lot better than he showed in the Al Barty and will improve for a fence, and he's priced attractively.

A final word of caution - one can never have too many words of caution in a post like this - is that three of the most recent ten Broadway winners were unsighted at any of the Spring Festivals. Might Bite and L'Homme Presse were particularly progressive during their chase campaigns: there's always time, and space in the ledger, to back another one or three 'twixt now and then!

Observation:
Three winners that were unheralded a year earlier mean this is a race to play small at big prices, or (probably) not at all. The pick of the handicap form, ideally from a novice with a decent rating and carrying a commensurately lumpy weight, isn't the worst way to tilt at it, so have a look at 20/1 Hollow Games. And perhaps Hillcrest at a similar quote.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

The last three races under consideration are the Championship chases, starting with the two mile division.

 

 

Two races from the year before dominate, and they're predictable enough, too. The novice version of the Champion Chase, the Arkle, and the Champion Chase itself are kingmakers (or queenmaker in the case of Put The Kettle On) having hosted eight next year Champion Chasers between them; no other race has featured even a single QMCC winner. Those Champion Chase winners have all been 11/1 or shorter, which surprised me when I recall how many of them I "couldn't have"!

Thinking about the logical contenders, this has been a race notable for absenteeism, either pre-race or during: in Politologue's victory year, both Altior and Chacun Pour Soi withdrew on the day; last year, CPS threw in a clunker; and this year, Shishkin did that while CPS tucked and rolled. I mention this by way of context as I'm about to overlook Energumene and Shishkin in the ante post market.

Energumene was undeniably electric in beating what stood up and got round, but the pick of those was the 165-rated 11-year-old Politologue. But he didn't run to 165; his performance rating from the BHA was just 148. That form is hollow for all that Energ waltzed by the residue of his field. Actually, that's not the concern. Rather, it's whether or not we can trust him to turn up twelve months down the line. If we can, and he does, he will be a major player, but a top price of 7/2 is not for me.

Shishkin is brilliant. Was brilliant. He now has a question to answer: did Ascot vaporise his verve for the game? Was Cheltenham really all about the ground? I so want to believe he'll be back, and I'll cheer him as though I'm all in if/when he does come back, but I definitely do not want to wager a year out at 5/1.

Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs will find ways to avoid each other without taking in the Champion Chase, I expect; and Ferny Hollow could be a runner for all that his form was not far clear of Riviere d'Etel's - and that one was no match, no match at all, for Edwardstone in the Arkle. True, it was a weak enough renewal, Eddie's pre-race 159 pick of the field ascending to 161 post-race; but he did it well and with more to give. He'll go into open company next season as second in after Shishkin of the domestics, assuming Shishkin returns to his former glories. And he's 12/1 to join the three previous Arkle winners to double up in the QMCC a year later, the most recent of which was the similarly underappreciated Put The Kettle On.

Observation:
The two mile Grade 1 chases from the previous year dominate the QMCC winners board. This is a race where the obvious often comes to pass but it can still be played at a square price, perhaps through the conduit of Edwardstone, a far better chaser than hurdler who retains upside in a division of fragile commodities.

Ryanair Chase

The much-maligned Ryanair is a race I love, and it's produced more than its share of good winners, including the current two-timer Allaho. It also has a trio of predictable components, namely Golden Miller, Willie Mullins, and Aintree form.

 

 

In fact, the Golden Miller angle, while not quite a chuck out, has gone a bit cold. Not since Balko Des Flos won the Ryanair in 2018 a year after falling in the Golden Miller as a 16/1 chance has a runner from that race won the Open version. There is a very good chance, however, that one of Bob Olinger and/or Galopin Des Champs will run in next year's Ryanair, and either would hold strong claims for all that Allaho is a worthy champ.

Galopin Des Champs, a stablemate of Allaho, is still more likely to go Ryanair as things stand: he jumps well (in spite of his last fence misfortune in the Golden Miller) and has a fantastic cruising speed. 6/1 is at the unexciting end of the acceptable spectrum, I feel, because there looks to be a huge amount of dead wood in the betting lists right now - this could end up being next year's version of the Turners match up: never mind the width, feel the quality. Galopin and Allaho both tick the Willie Mullins box - the Closutton guru has won five of the last seven Ryanair's and has a half nelson around the 2023 renewal at time of writing.

Aintree form is an interesting sneak into the ante post markets, for all that we don't yet know how that plays out. Winners of the two G1 novices chases, the Mildmay and Manifesto, prevailed in the following Ryanair in 2014/15, and Min won the Melling Chase, an Open Grade 1, en route to 2020 Ryanair glory.

Observation: 
Trained by Willie Mullins, and/or exiting either of the Golden Miller/Turners or an Aintree G1 (as a winner) all embellish the prospects of a Ryanair contender. At this stage, Galopin Des Champs is a fair enough play at 6/1 in what might end up a shallow race - Allaho notwithstanding - next term. But keep a beady on events in Liverpool the week after next, too. There might be a play at a price emerging from the action there.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

And finally, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Blue Riband. A proper test over three and a quarter miles, plus a few more yards, it's a legitimate proving ground for our sport's champions.

 

 

Placed Gold Cup horses can and do win the following year, as demonstrated most recently by Native River (2018), Al Boum Photo doubling up in 2020, and A Plus Tard this year. And, like the Arkle/QMCC and Golden Miller/Ryanair couplings, the Broadway is a natural springboard for the Gold Cup. Witness Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere, Al Boum Photo (first time around), and Minella Indo. Those two angles account for seven of the last ten Gold Cup winners.

A shortlist, then, might be A Plus Tard, Minella Indo, Protektorat, L'Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor.

Some have Stattler making a claim but the National Hunt Chase has made zero inroads into the Gold Cup picture, even since cutting back in distance, Galvin the latest to possess the stamina but not the class for the main gig. Others proffer the talented Monkfish but he has not been seen on the course since April last year and has plenty to prove as a result. He might enter the frame after we've swooned over his comeback but he's no kind of long-term conveyance at this point.

There is no sign of a Golden Miller runner winning the Gold Cup a year after in recent history and, besides, Galopin Des Champs is only 5/1 and has other - some say, better - options. Nor am I personally convinced of the Cheltenham credentials of Bravemansgame, for all that he may shorten if winning at Aintree.

Of the quintet on the shortlist, Minella Indo will be ten next year - too old - and Protektorat looked some way shy of what's required for all that he can certainly improve from his current mark: he'll only be eight next year. A Plus Tard was imperious this time and is unquestionably the one to beat; but he's scheduled to face two rising stars off Broadway, as it were, next year. That's just as well because it's hard to see anything behind him a couple of weeks ago reversing places.

L'Homme Presse had stamina questions to answer going into the Broadway; not only did he respond with a win, he did it going away from a strong stayer at the finish. It was a performance that quietly but confidently, erm, pressed his Gold Cup claims, though 8/1 reflects that pretty much fully. So what of his vanquished rival, Ahoy Senor? His jumping was a little sketchy, more than that at one point, and if brushing up as he's entitled to for a second season over fences, he could maybe bridge the gap; but it's a stretch to imagine a reversal of form even with a clear round.

If Royale Pagaille ever gets a swamp on Gold Cup day, he'd have a great chance, and is still young enough to be a player in twelve months' time; but that is a big 'if' as evidenced by the 'going' column in the above table. Still, 50/1 is a tad rude, I'd say.

Observation:
Look to the podium spots in the previous Gold Cup, and the 1-2 from the Broadway. The problem is that the market has looked there already meaning value appears pretty thin on the ground.

*

So that's that, a route into most of next year's Cheltenham Festival Grade 1's based on activity this spring. If you're ambitious enough to try a few of these so far out - we all have to survive another fifty weeks through uncertain times for a start (mind you, if we don't, I guess it won't really matter whether we've made good bets or bad) - then it could be worth some uber-optimistic permed doubles. Catch one and it will apologise for a lot of misfires from the scattergun!

One other thing to keep in mind is price volatility over time. The ante post markets overreact in both directions, so horses that fit the bill above but are skinny enough in the betting right now will still fit the historical profile if/when they ease out a point or three. The brave investor buys when others are selling, as long as her fundamentals are close enough to their mark.

Good luck. With a favourable spin of the wheel, we'll have a few tasty tickets on the back burner while those flat race bunnies are haring about the place.

Matt

Cheltenham 2022: Profit and Loss

/in , /by

It's that time of year again, post-Cheltenham 2022, when the prudent thing to do is look over one's wagering and inspect where things went wrong, and right; or right, and wrong. If you're the voyeuristic type then I invite you to look over my shoulder at how the Fez went for me from a punting perspective.

By way of comparison/contrast, here are a couple of previous reviews:

2021 Cheltenham Betting Review

2020 Cheltenham Betting Review

And, beneath this year's review video, is a link to my spreadsheet in case it's of any use to you.

Results spreadsheet can be downloaded here >
How was Cheltenham for you? Leave a comment and let us know!
Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2022: Day Four Preview, Tips

/in , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2022: Day Four Preview, Tips

We're onto Friday, Day Four, and traditionally the least fathomable of a quartet of largely inscrutable afternoons punting. But if we can unearth a winner or two we'll likely be well rewarded so let's work in that optimistic spirit...

After an unforeseen monsoon on Wednesday (it was a miserable day at the track), the going changed to heavy and much of what follows was based on an expectation of very different ground conditions. Do check whether the horse you fancy (or I've suggested) handles conditions!

1.30 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

A dozen horses searching for Triumph triumph, the first four in the betting hailing from Ireland. Favoured is Vauban, trained by Willie Mullins to win the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. There he beat Gordon Elliott's - or, more correctly, Caldwell Construction's - Fil Dor by a relatively comfortable three lengths; but Vauban was previously second to another horse with the same connections as Fil Dor, Pied Piper. Vauban was rumoured not to be ready that day but the evidence of the form book is that Pied Piper beat him fair and square.

Pied Piper has run once since, in the Cheltenham Triumph Trial (G2) on trials day in late January, easily accounting for Moka De Vassy and six others, none of whom re-oppose. That fact implies a degree of hollowness to the win but it's hard to lay blame at the hooves of Pied Piper. He's unbeaten and on literal form reading should probably be favourite.

Fil Dor had notched a hat-trick before conceding only to Vauban last time, that trio being achieved in a novice, then a Grade 3 and then a Grade 2. Very much heading in the right direction until undone by Vauban, then, and another obvious contender.

Less obvious is the third from that Spring Juvenile, Il Etait Temps, who did all his best work at the finish and surged past the two in front of him at the jam stick. That was a first run for the Mullins yard having been acquired from France and he looks tailor made for a stern stamina test at the trip.

First of the British challenge is Porticello, whose excellent season in the care of Gary Moore has seen him win three of four, most notably the Grade 1 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow. He has plenty of experience and his best form is all on soft turf (has won on good to soft in Listed grade).

Porticello's sole defeat was to Knight Salute, himself unbeaten in five hurdle starts of which the last three were in Grade 2 fields. All of that quintet were on good to soft or good ground so no worries there, and one of them was at this track. The question is simply, is Knight Salute good enough, given he's unlikely to have the progression of some of his rivals after so much relative experience. He's a flagship horse for the resurgent yard of Milton Harris, and I very much hope he runs well. I feel he's entitled to be first home of the UK entries.

One of my ante post "probably gone west" vouchers is on Icare Allen, who was well beaten in the Spring Juvenile two back before getting on track, after a fashion, in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse. He may have a little more to show yet though probably not as much more as at least one of the four atop the market.

Dan Skelton will saddle Doctor Parnassus, two from two over hurdles and a close second to the very good mare Indefatigable when last seen on the flat. This lad looks all about stamina: he's won over 2m3f already and was staying on in the soft before that. I just feel he'll not be fast enough even if he's good enough (and I doubt that, also).

The other four have limited claims on what they've achieved at this stage.

Triumph Hurdle Pace Map

Not masses of obvious early pace, with Lunar Power and perhaps Ages Of Man seeking a name check before the proverbial taps are turned on.

Triumph Hurdle Selection

The top of the market looks about right if you, like me, believe the Irish are stronger than the British. The one who has some juice still in his price potentially is Il Etait Temps, who looks an each way bet on that Spring Juvenile debut. Connections will know more this time and he'll not leave his challenge so late. Porticello has G1 form on wet ground and might hit the frame.

Suggestion: Try 11/1 Il Etait Temps each way.

*

2.10 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)

This is way above my punting pay grade though I did once tip and back the 50/1 winner, Silver Jaro when the County was the Friday night cap. What a day that was! Still, we can't live on former glories.

These days, it seems, you want an unexposed handily-weighted and classy animal. My shortlist, which should be treated with extreme caution, is State Man, First Street, I Like To Move It, Top Bandit, Cormier and Jesse Evans.

Few horses at this year's Festival have been as well touted and widely entered up as State Man, who lands here as the likely jolly. A five-year-old novice, he was second in France before falling on his Irish debut and then bolting up in a nothing maiden hurdle. All his form is on soft ground and that's a concern as is that jumping frailty/inexperience. I certainly believe that he's a very talented horse but at the price he's opposable.

First Street, in comparison, is relatively battle hardened after three wins from five hurdle starts, three novices and two handicaps. Most recently he was third to Glory And Fortune in the Betfair Hurdle (handicap) at Newbury, and that one ran a mighty race to be a nine length fifth in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday. Betwixt Glory And Fortune and First Street that day was I Like To Move It whose chance is also well advertised by the winner's subsequent effort. At Newbury, he just failed to close the remaining head deficit with the winner and has gone up four pounds as a result. This likely fast pace should bring the front of the race back to him sooner and he rates a definite danger.

Brian Ellison has played many a fine tune on Cormier, a veteran of 31 races, though only ten over hurdles, four of those wins. That record includes Class 2 handicap victories the last twice, one of them at Cheltenham, though his record in large fields is a concern for me.

Gordon runs Top Bandit, well named some might say, and this fellow has been progressing nicely over hurdles. After a debut third on soft at Limerick, he's rattled up a treble of novice hurdle scores. This will be his handicap debut and he's got the right combination of relative experience and a total lack of exposure to the assessor.

Meanwhile, trying to pretend he's not as good as he is has taken a different form for the Noel Meade-trained Jesse Evans. Meade saddles last year's Fred Winter bomb, Jeff Kidder, at 80/1 so he knows the way to do it. Jesse was sent off favourite for the Greatwood handicap hurdle in November (14 length ninth of 19), since which he's not been seen. His previous run over timber was when a two length fourth in the extremely valuable Galway Hurdle and before that he'd won an 18-runner handicap hurdle at Killarney. He looks a tempting price though wouldn't want it to get too wet.

Lorna Fowler trains Colonel Mustard and plenty thought he should have gone in one of the Grade 1's. He's been second to Jonbon and third to Sir Gerhard in his last two starts and that reads very well, as well as does the fact he handles all ground.

Many more can win, natch.

County Hurdle Pace Map

The charge looks set to be led by Felix Desjy and I Like To Move It principally, though there are bound to be others who want a piece of it. Likely to be rapid from the get go.

County Hurdle Pace Map

County Hurdle Pace Map

County Hurdle Selection

Devilishly difficult. Willie's certainty in the Fred Boodles was beaten on Tuesday and I don't want to be with State Man at the price, for all that he could be fantastically well handicapped. Top Bandit is not much bigger but has more concrete claims on the form book if not the rumour mill. But I'll swing with two at double figure odds in I Like To Move It and Colonel Mustard. They both have proven form, in top class handicaps and Graded conditions races respectively, and retain upside for this ultra-test.

Suggestion: Back 14/1 I Like To Move It and/or 12/1 Colonel Mustard each way with all the extra places.

*

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

This goes one of two ways, in terms of the market: it's either won by a classy well-fancied runner, or by an unconsidered rag with a street fighter's attitude. The last two winners, Monkfish and Vanillier, fit more or less in the first category; before that, we had 50/1, 33/1 twice and 16/1 within six years. Probably the way to play, in Countdown terminology, is one from the top and two from anywhere else.

The top is made up of Ginto and Hillcrest, strong and classy stayers from either side of the Irish Sea. Ginto (pronounced 'Jinto', I think) is a Gordon runner that is unbeaten in three over hurdles, taking in a maiden, a Grade 2 and the Grade 1 Lawlor's of Naas. 4 1/4 lengths is the closest a rival has got to date, in that G1, and he will likely again be front rank from the start. Whether he can see it out in this bigger field I don't know but he deserves his primary perch in the punting pecking order.

So, too, does Hillcrest, top of the domestic pops after four wins over hurdles in as many completed starts. While they've been largely achieved on wet ground, his first two were good to soft and he ought to go fine on that. Representing the Henry Daly team he'd be something of a throwback to an age before the mega yards and, as a soppy old romantic, I'll be cheering him on for that alone.

Back in the real world, Willie has the next one in the lists, Minella Cocooner who, rather marvellously, got the better of Minella Crooner last time. That was a good race at the DRF but it was over a shorter trip and he'd not have beaten the other Minella at this distance that day. He's lightly raced and is another who races very prominently.

Bardenstown Lad has lots of top of the ground form, and a similar profile to last year's third, Streets Of Doyen, for the same connections. He won easily, and as expected, at Musselburgh last month and looks like he'll stay well. He, too, is a front rank racer.

Willie's The Nice Guy steps up in both trip and grade after three wins, including a romp in a 22-runner maiden hurdle. That is his sole spin over timber, though, so his inexperience has to be a reservation.

From a personal perspective, I'd love Stag Horn to win. Along with Ron Huggins and Pete Williams, I own a horse called World Of Dreams, who was second to Stag Horn on that one's hurdling debut, giving him seven pounds and coming out best at the weights. Our lad is unfortunately sidelined just now but we're cheerleading for the Stag, who has elevated his claims for the 'spuds race' with a second hurdle win, in Grade 2 at Warwick. His previous career as a flat horse earned him a triple-digit rating, which confirms the class and substance of his profile.

At the big-priced bomb end of considerations is a horse like Idas Boy. He's run to a good but not great level in three mile novices behind the likes of Gerri Colombe, and if they 'go a million' placing a later premium on extreme stamina, he's the type to plod on into the picture. Of course, he might not be even nearly good enough: such is life.

And a word for Dermot Weld and his entry, Falcon Eight. Like Stag Horn, he's a classy flat horse - he won the Chester Cup off top weight last May - but, unlike Stag Horn, his price is still quite fat. Never in it on hurdle debut over two and a half miles (yielding to soft), he was able to get to the front eventually in a 2m7f maiden at Thurles last month on yielding ground. His best form is on good to soft or yielding and he looks the type to keep running. Indeed, his profile is quite similar to Stag Horn's where his price is 2.5x that one's.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Stag Horn might take them along, though there are plenty of others who want to be close to the lead if not on it.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection

Like all of Friday's races, this is trappy. I do like Ginto but not his odds, likewise Hillcrest. I'm after a bit more latitude for making a mistake and so will tilt at a windmill in the form of Idas Boy, who might just appreciate an out and out slog, and Falcon Eight, whose classy flat form may have been a bit under-rated.

Suggestion: Try a couple of big-priced guesses in the form of 25/1 Falcon Eight and 50/1 Idas Boy each way, extra places obvs.

*

3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)

This year's Gold Cup is an interesting race though not a vintage one, on looks at least. I covered it in some detail in my Gold Cup preview here, and don't have much to add now the final preparations have been completed. Written on 11th January I felt Minella Indo was big enough to bet at 8/1 (now 5/1) and Chantry House was worthy of a small dabble at 16's (still 16's).

I'm not inclined to add anything much to those opinions, the reasons for which are to be found at the above link if you're minded. One horse who does need marking up, however, is Royale Pagaille, for whom the Wednesday rain moves him from unlikely to quite possible. He's been backed accordingly but remains a double figure price at time of writing.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

Not clear where the pace will come from if not from Santini. And if from Santini, it may not be that fast early.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection

A competitive but not outstanding renewal of the Gold Cup, and one in which I respect Galvin's chance greatly but would rather bet Minella Indo at similar prices. Trying to guess on a longer priced horse led me to Chantry House, whose winning habit is more admirable than it often looks and whose clunk in the King George needs overlooking to rate his chance here. Trainer Nicky Henderson is having a very good week.

Suggestion: Back Minella Indo to win at 5/1 or maybe Chantry House each way at 16/1 if you're feeling fearless/reckless enough. Don't forget 16/1 Royale Pagaille loves it wet.

*

4.10 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)

This is a race for people who know about point to point and hunter chase form, and I am not among their number. So there will be better places to go for an insight than what follows. Nevertheless, and caveats firmly in situ, here goes...

Second for the past two years, the chance of Billaway is obvious. Trained by Willie Mullins (really?), he's been in similar form this term and has a similar chance. Sent off at evens and 2/1 in that pair of silvers, he's a slightly bigger price this time but not enough to get me interested.

Dangers abound, perhaps most notably Winged Leader, who beat Billaway on his most recent start. With his best form on a good or yielding surface, as long as it's not too soft this eight-year-old probably holds strong claims.

David Maxwell rides Bob And Co, who unseated when still in with every chance last year. There he was ridden by Sean Bowen in the absence of amateur riders but, reunited with his regular rider, he's a chance of hitting the board, though recent second places when a short priced favourite temper enthusiasm for the win a touch.

I'm sure there's a reason he's this price and I'm a layman as I've said when it comes to this discipline, but Cousin Pascal looks big to me. He won the Aintree Hunters' Chase last year and beat Bob And Co last time - that one less than half his price - he also bolted up, granted in maiden hunter company, over further than three miles from a big field in very wet ground. This set up looks spot on and his sole defeat in recent times was on good ground which may not have suited.

I probably haven't mentioned the lively outsider that the hunt fans are all over, so apologies for that.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase  Pace Map

Pinch of salt pace map because we don't have point form so these are Rules races only.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection

I obviously don't know, so feel free to skip this next bit. But I've had a bit of Cousin Pascal each way at 16/1, and the other half of my stake each way four places at 14/1. Winged Leader should go well as a win play.

Suggestion: Back 5/1 Winged Leader to win and/or 14/1 Cousin Pascal each way with four or more places.

*

4.50 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)

The least interesting race of the meeting for me. I accept that, in the grand scheme of the breed and all, there may be a place for it; but I'm unexcited by the prospect. Anyway...

Top rated is Elimay, second in last year's inaugural running to stable mate Colreevy. She's since won at Fairyhouse and Naas but, in between times, has been beaten by both Zambella and Mount Ida who lock horns again this time. Elimay handles all types of underfoot and is commendably consistent, but she's very short against a series of credible rivals.

Chief among them may be Mount Ida, winner of the Kim Muir last season, and 1-1 versus Elimay since. She was apparently a little wrong physically when taking the Kim Muir, hence the erratic looking jumping at times and the tailed off early run style. That remains a niggle when considering this six-furlong shorter trip but she's a very good mare.

Zambella handles deep ground and two and a half miles is her range. She has a comprehensive score against Elimay in last season's Houghton Mares' Chase (2m4f, soft, exhibit A) and could be the value.

A mare who has had a few problems since winning the 2020 Dawn Run is Concertista. When she's good, she's very good, though, and her second to Black Tears in last year's Mares' Hurdle would be about enough to win here if she could reproduce it. She's a novice taking on seasoned chasers and that tempers enthusiasm.

Course specialist Vienna Court has been having a great season, winning a couple of handicaps here, the second of which was against the boys. Back in mares only company last time, she was picked off by Pink Legend on the flatter pastures of Huntingdon. It is likely Vienna needed a slightly greater stamina test, which she'll get, but I'm not convinced she's good enough. Pink Legend has since fallen in a race won by Zambella but was struggling at the time.

Scarlet And Dove has won on heavy and was not far behind Mount Ida two back before pulling up in the Thyestes Chase. Her overall profile is patchy though she does have some occasionally solid form in defeat.

Mares' Chase Pace Map

Zambella will be near the front, along probably with Elimay. Should be an even gallop, no more than that.

Mares' Chase Selection

Mount Ida and Elimay look very likely to be on the premises but the one that stands out at the current odds is Zambella. This race could have been framed for her and, though she hasn't quite the class of the first named pair, that optimal setup could see her competitive. She's a definitely each way bet with the firm paying four places.

Suggestion: Back Zambella each way with extra places if you can find them.

*

5.30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 4 1/2f)

The getting out stakes is for masochists! Conditional riders and 26 of them aboard largely unexposed and/or jobbed up horses over two and a half miles.

Langer Dan is trained in Britain by a Dan, Skelton, and was second in the Martin Pipe last year to Galopin Des Champs. Only two pounds higher now, having been nudged up five for the Martin Pipe silver then straight back down three for a limp effort at Taunton on his only intervening run has been widely observed as generous handicapping. Be that as it may, the missed point may be that this race has the potential for a lurker of the quality of a Galopin Des Champs. Or a Killultagh Vic, or a Don Poli, or a Sir Des Champs (strong trend for winners to have the suffix 'Des Champs'!)

So, if Langer Dan is not a blot, then who are the likeliest lurkers? Each of those mentioned was sent of 12/1 or shorter so I'm not going deep into the bowels of the form book.

Hollow Games heads the chasing pack, market wise, and is trained by former Martin Pipe conditional, Gordon Elliott, as are five others in this field. He was third in a brace of Grade 1's in his most recent starts and has form on deep ground. Of his others, Chemical Energy has won a maiden and a novice hurdle either side of beating all bar My Mate Mozzie in a Grade 3; he's quietly progressive. Likewise, The Goffer has more to give after a Grade 3 score last time at Thurles (soft). In fact, similar comments apply to all of Gordon's and I'm not even sure they're confident of how the hierarchy shakes down.

Willie Mullins saddles only two, so he's either happy he'll have won the trainers' title before 5pm on Friday or he quietly fancies one or both. They are Adamantly Chosen, winner of a big field bumper and a big field maiden hurdle, and second twice in between, including to the decent Gringo d'Aubrelle; and Five O'Clock, not seen since being hampered before staying on into a four length seventh in this race two years ago. Now four pounds better in, we know Mullins can get one ready off a layoff and this fella is a fan of the mud.

I can't resist a mention for Freedom To Dream, who has been second in a G2 and fourth in a G1 in most recent racecourse visits. He seems to handle all ground conditions and his trainer Peter Fahey knows the job (Royal Kahala, Belfast Banter, Suprise Package at Sandown, etc).

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map

Expect this to be fiercely contested from the outset, with what looks like one each of Willie's and Gordon's vying early. If it's not them it will be some others in a race that will take some getting.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection

There's a good chance something at a single figure price will win this, perhaps even Langer Dan. But I'll have very small guesses on Five O'Clock and Freedom To Dream with the extra places.

Suggestion: Have a punt each way on 16/1 Five O'Clock and 25/1 Freedom To Dream with extra places aforethought.

*

The rain changed everything on Wednesday and hopefully you were able to pivot your punting accordingly. Regardless of wins or losses accrued in the toughest betting week of the year, the sport generally comes out in front and, with a following wind, will do again after the Gold Cup.

Be lucky.

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2022: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

/in , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2022: Day 3 Preview, Tips

And so to the second half. No matter how up or down your punting yoyo has been through Tuesday and Wednesday, we are only at halfway and there are fourteen further fiendish sudokus still to unravel.

After an unforeseen monsoon on Wednesday (it was a miserable day at the track), the going changed to heavy and much of what follows was based on an expectation of very different ground conditions. Do check whether the horse you fancy (or I've suggested) handles conditions!

1.30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4f)

A small field as has been the feature of many novice Grade 1's this week so far, but this uber-exclusive four-runner party is going to get people wailing and gnashing their teeth.

Still, never mind the width, feel the quality.

Here, in what looks a match to all intents and purposes, is the gallant galloper Galopin Des Champs up against the barrelling Bob Olinger. The tale of the tape shows that both have a Festival hurdle gold to their names, and both have two easy chase verdicts under their belts, too.

Bob Olinger first. He waltzed home in last year's Ballymore, a race which comprised just seven runners; and has similarly come clear of his fields in a beginners' and a Grade 3 chase. There were some good horses well beaten off in those fencing assignments but nothing remotely of the calibre of Galopin Des Champs.

Naturally enough, similar comments apply to Galopin, whose Festival win was in the Martin Pipe, a 22-runner rush that bears no resemblance to the matter at hand this time. In between, he's looked absolutely electric in a couple of Leopardstown chases, first when strolling 22 lengths clear of his closest pursuer in a beginners' chase and most recently when hacking up in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Both Bob and Galopin would prefer to take a lead but neither is averse to making the running if necessary. And both can be expected to stride on from what they've displayed so far in this sphere.

The other two - El Barra and Busselton - don't really count for win purposes though a few wily judges have El Barra each way with three places ante post. Good luck keeping that account open!

Turners Novices' Chase Pace Map

This could be tactical between the big two, and could end up with a sprint to the line from a couple of fences out. I'd not be at all confident about that, however.

Turners Novices' Chase Selection

There is not much in the way of betting angles in this year's Turners, it appearing a straight shootout between the top two in the market. I favour Galopin Des Champs but not by a lot.

Suggestion: Sit this one out from a betting perspective and enjoy what will hopefully be a right dingdong between two very high class horses.

*

2.10 Pertemps Final (Grade 3 handicap, 3m)

Another contest where I'm cutting to the chase and using historical profiles to make that incision. My shortlist is Winter Fog, Alaphilippe, Tullybeg and Born Patriot.

Winter Fog hails from the shrewd, very shrewd, yard of Emmett Mullins. A second season hurdler who was a big price when breaking his maiden at the third time of asking for former trainer Daniel Murphy and, after a single further run for Murphy, transferred to Emmett Mullins. For his new conditioner, he was a big eyecatcher in the Leopardstown qualifier, where he finished second having been backed from 22/1 into 8/1. He showed plenty there, and was clearly expected to be involved, but that cost him a ten pound rise in the weights.

In fact, he kind of needed that sort of elevation to guarantee a berth, as his prior mark of 128 would not have got a run. He's unexposed, represents smart connections, has shown he can handle a big field and looks a big player.

Alaphilippe has, like Winter Fog, had just the one run this season, in the Warwick qualifier; and, despite being sent off short enough at 7/2 he was a no show in fifth, eight lengths behind the winner. The first six in the qualifiers are eligible to race here so that was a job well done by connections. Looking back to last season and, as a novice, Alaphilippe - trained by Fergal O'Brien - was good enough to be fifth in the Albert Bartlett with a BHA rating at that time of 143. That has declined to 138 now and this is the day for the horse named after a cyclist to show what he has if he can.

All Gordon Elliott Festival handicap entries command respect and only his third choice according to current betting is Tullybeg. That may be because the seven-year-old Sholokhov gelding has rather shown his hand with a couple of wins on good ground in the autumn. He then ran fifth in the Cheltenham qualifier and hasn't raced since. That could be a sign that the trainer was happy that the job of qualifying was done allowing sole focus on preparing for the big day. So many handlers leaving something to work on - doesn't make it easy, does it?

Peter Fahey runs Born Patriot, the trainer bidding to win a Festival handicap for the second season running after Belfast Banter claimed the County Hurdle a year ago. This fellow has a similar profile: also a six-year-old and lightly raced in handicap company, he was second in the Cheltenham qualifier before a quiet effort in a Sandown handicap in early February. That last run might have been to ensure the British handicapper was happy with Born Patriot's rating and didn't do anything rash in terms of extra poundage. And it might not, of course. He looks interesting at a price.

And, though the trends say he's too old, it is impossible to ignore Sire Du Berlais. Not just because he is the current favourite for this race but also because he has an awesome Fez record: he's attended the last four Festivals, something not many of us can claim, and has finished fourth in the 2018 Martin Pipe, first in this race in 2019 and 2020, and second in the Grade 1 Stayers' Hurdle last season. Naturally, a record like that brings plenty of ballast for his saddle but it's earned by the classiest horse in the line up. He shouldered top weight of 11-12 to victory two years ago and will bid to do the same again now.

In the same colours is Dame De Compagnie, whose case is slightly less easily made. She was sixth, beaten 96 lengths, in the Wincanton qualifier - remember sixth is the minimum placing to get a run here - and had endured an abortive chase campaign. But go back a little further, to March 2020, and you'll note that DdC won a handicap hurdle at the Festival when easily accounting for Black Tears et al in the Coral Cup off a mark of 140. She's off 139 this time and, though time waits for no man, woman, gelding or mare, nine is certainly not too old for another hoorah.

So many more with a chance.

Pertemps Final Pace Map

Potentially the thrill of a lifetime for Victoria Malzard as her mount, Kansas City Chief, looks most likely to lead this big field. She'll be chaperoned, doubtless, by a few, including potentially Dallas Des Pictons and Remastered. I'm expecting a relatively even gallop.

Pertemps Final Pace Map

Pertemps Final Pace Map

Pertemps Final Selection

This is very tough. The 'obvious' answer is Sire Du Berlais and he looks sure to give a run for your money but he's no sort of a price. Likewise, Winter Fog; but the one with some flesh on its odds still is Born Patriot and there are lots of extra places being paid here.

Suggestion: Try 22/1 Born Patriot each way, and/or the shorties Sire Du Berlais and/or Winter Fog at bigger than 5/1 win only

*

2.50 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4 1/2f)

Nine go in the intermediate Grade 1 chase, the Ryanair, and they are headed by last year's winner and this year's strong favourite, Allaho.

Now eight, Allaho has won four of his last five races, the only horse to lower his colours being an on song Chacun Pour Soi over an inadequate two mile trip at last year's Punchestown Festival. At this sort of range and on this sort of going, he looks very strong as his price implies. So where are the credible dangers? Good question. The honest answer is that there may not be any, though I need to show my working out.

Conflated was a shock winner of the Irish Gold Cup over three miles at Leopardstown last month and runs here rather than the Gold Cup, which means the owner got his way rather than the trainer. I tend to agree with Michael O'Leary in that this greater relative speed test is probably more up Conflated's street than the stamina required for the Blue Riband, but can see Gordon Elliott's "there's only one Gold Cup" point, too.

Conflated was a good but not top class hurdler and has been chasing for two seasons now, but had shown nothing prior to that last day to suggest he was of this calibre. Was it a flash in the pan? Can he beat Allaho even if he's able to repeat that level? I'm not sure, but his price suggests he can.

Shan Blue was a legitimate Grade 1 novice performer last season but his sole start this term was when falling and injuring himself in the Charlie Hall with the race in the bag. 138 days have passed, it always being the plan to bring him back for a spring campaign if he recuperated in time. Seemingly he has, but this is a big ask off that preparation.

The horse to get closest to Allaho over this distance in recent seasons is Janidil. A Grade 1 winner last April at Fairyhouse, he was only two lengths behind the favourite here in the John Durkan in December. He appeared not to get home over three miles at Leopardstown twice since and this drop back in trip is a plus. Fair place chance.

Second season chaser Eldorado Allen has some very good runs to his name: as well as five wins, three at Grade 2 level, he's been the nearest at the finish to Shishkin twice, albeit at a respectful distance. A strong stayer at 2m5f, as his 2m7f Denman Chase verdict last time confirms, he looks mildly progressive and has a rating to get close to the frame. It is hard to see him challenging the jolly unless that one has a shocker, though.

Ten-year-old Melon has been a stalwart in the Graded races at the Cheltenham Festival, finishing second to Labaik in the Supreme (no, I didn't back the winner), second to Buveur d'Air in the 2018 Champion Hurdle, second to Espoir d'Allen in the 2019 Champion Hurdle and, you guessed it, second to Samcro in the 2020 Marsh/Turners. Last year in this, however, the seconditis was cured, Melon instead pulling up. He did win a Grade 2 in heavy ground last time out but the likelihood is his best is in the past. Lovely old stick, definitely deserved to have won one along the way.

The rest are even bigger prices. I'm not a fan of Mister Fisher, another who pulled up in an attritional renewal behind Allaho last season; nor especially of Saint Calvados who hasn't won since 2019. He was second in this in 2020 and ran a good race in the King George before running a bad race in the Ascot Chase. His 'A' game could threaten for minor podium honours. Fanion d'Estruval was fifth in this last year and has improved his rating a few pounds since, without hinting that he might be in the shake up now.

Ryanair Chase Pace Map

Allaho normally leads and I expect him to do that here, controlling the pace. Those closest to mount a challenge may be Conflated and Shan Blue while Janidil and Saint Calvados will more likely turn up fashionably late.

Ryanair Chase Selection

Allaho looks to have very sound prospects of a follow up, something which bookmakers consider more likely than not. I tend to agree. But after that they and I differ in terms of the next best: I think Janidil, two lengths behind Allaho in December, has a good chance to again get close and he can be backed either in forecasts or without the favourite.

Suggestion: Back Janidil each way without the favourite at 6/1.

*

3.30 Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

The Stayers' Hurdle is a Grade 1 run over three miles. That much is known. Thereafter it gets trickier to be confident about anything. Every horse in the field has a question to answer, most of them a series of questions. Which makes wagering difficult. It's a race to sit out from that perspective in truth but let's push on, just in case.

The reigning champion is Flooring Porter, who has done less wrong than many of his rivals since last year's Festival. He did pull up next time, at Punchestown's Festival, and fell when likely to win at Navan; and most recently he was two lengths behind Klassical Dream in the G1 Christmas Hurdle. And yes, that is still doing less wrong than most of these!

Klassical Dream looked relatively robust before running lamentably in the Galmoy Hurdle last time. Rumours are that Willie Mullins, his trainer, ran only to support his local track etc etc. If that's true, and the real Klassical Dream shows up, he's the one to beat, no argument. He'd previously beaten Flooring Porter as we know, and before that had dotted up in the Punchestown Stayers' Hurdle, another Grade 1. And those are his only three races at this trip. Assuming the Galmoy is a chuck out, which we're invited to believe, KD is the one to beat.

Best of the British might be Thyme Hill, who has been around quite a while now. He's mixed wins against the likes of Paisley Park and Roksana with defeats to the likes of Champ and, erm, Paisley Park. I quite like him as a horse but I don't really want to bet him.

So what of Champ? Intended for the Gold Cup even after beating Thyme Hill in the Long Walk Hurdle, he was diverted here even after losing to Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle. Ultimately he looks to be somewhat 'of no fixed abode' in terms of appropriate Festival targets having been a less than fluent chaser even when winning the RSA Chase two years ago. He's another who could win, but probably won't.

Paisley Park is fifth favourite but in my book four of these could be co-second favourites behind Klassical Dream. He's been a fantastic story horse for his blind since birth owner, Andrew Gemmell, and it would be amazing if he could roll back the years. Since his emotional win on that unforgettable Thursday three years ago, he's been third mostly and seemingly regressive; that was before bashing Champ and 2020 Stayers' winner Lisnagar Oscar after completely blowing the start. He's just got too many negatives to be a bet, but he'll be a hugely popular winner if that can happen.

The mare Royal Kahala gets seven pounds from the boys and comes here on a hat-trick, better winning form than most. But the wins were in minor Graded races for all that the most recent was that Galmoy where she turned away Klassical Dream among others. That was her first try at three miles so she's unbeaten at the trip and as a winner of five of her ten career starts she has fewer knocks than most of her rivals.

The others are 40/1+ and deserve to be, even though Lisnagar Oscar is a former winner. That Championship score is, unbelievably, the only win in his last 17 races!

Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map

Should be an even gallop with any of three (Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream, Lisnagar Oscar) expected to be front rank. Klassical Dream is perhaps most likely.

Stayers' Hurdle Selection

Not a very attractive betting heat, though it could be quite the spectacle. If you insist on having a win bet, Klassical Dream requires only the forgiveness of a below par run last time; prior to that he was a proper Grade 1 stayer. At bigger prices, KD's vanquisher in the Galmoy, Royal Kahala, has been a trifle overlooked, I feel.

Suggestion: Small bet on 4/1 Klassical Dream perhaps, or 9/1 Royal Kahala each way.

*

4.10 Festival Plate (Grade 3 handicap, 2m 4 1/2f)

Another handicap, another lunge for the trends in a half-cooked bid to find one that at least runs creditably. Thanks again to Josh Wright for doing the dirty work on racingtoprofit.co.uk, where I learned the following:

14/14 were at least 5lb higher than for their last win (were not: 0/115, 12p)
14/14 had 0-4 runs at track previously (5+ : 0/88, 18p)
14/14 had 0-3 runs in G3s (4+ : 0/81, 10p)
14/14 had 0-1 career wins over further (2+ : 0/54, 11p)
13/14 top 2 at least once last three starts (were not: 1/113, 14p)
13/14 had placed at least once last three starts (had not: 1/78, 8p)

That doesn't help especially and this is a very poor race for me historically. As such I'll spare you a deep dive in favour of a couple I think might be interesting. Simply The Betts, Celebre d'Allen, Imperial Alcazar, and Pistol Whipped all show up well and I think I'll split one point win only between them.

Festival Plate Pace Map

There's likely to be a good pace on early though front runners have done OK even in big fields at this trip. Wishing And Hoping will be doing just that about tactics, though he'll not be left alone in front.

Festival Plate Selection

This is too difficult for me. I'm having small interests on Simply The Betts, Celebre d'Allen, Imperial Alcazar, and Pistol Whipped. But I mean small! If one of them wins, I'll have been lucky, not good.

Suggestion: Good luck.

*

4.50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)

Another race where I don't have any special interest or awareness. Actually, I do have one view. I think Brandy Love should be a bigger price and, related, Dinoblue should be a shorter price.

Expanding a little on that, both are trained by Willie Mullins and, while Brandy Love has been beaten twice in four starts, Dinoblue was a striking winner - by 15 lengths - of her maiden. After that, Willie decided he'd seen enough and has prepared her for this since. He knows what he has and I suspect we're soon to find out, too. Meanwhile Brandy Love was beaten in a Grade 3, which is not an ideal prep for a Grade 2, for all that it's a higher level of form than achieved hitherto by Dinoblue.

Gordon Elliott saddles Party Central, winner at only 7/4 of a 15-runner Grade B handicap hurdle last time. She has experience in her corner and has only been beaten when the ground was wet wet wet. Here it will be dry dry dry. Grangee is another spoke in Willie's wheel, highly tried behind Mighty Potter et al in a Grade 1 at Christmas before falling when just starting to look interested in a mares' Grade 3 last time. She has a fair level of form but not much upside.

Similar comments apply to Statuaire, another Willie wunner. She won a muddling Royal Bond (Grade 1, Impervious back in fifth)  but was then thumped in similarly lofty company at the DRF. Still, this is a lot easier and it might be that she didn't appreciate the soft ground last time. After three wins, and one top class clunk, she might be a bit of value at around 20/1.

Love Envoi is very game and has made hay in an unbeaten string of five, one bumper and four hurdles, most recently on heavy in the Grade 2 Jane Seymour at Sandown. She's progressive but has been climbing the ranks in hock deep mud, a very different terrain from that which she'll encounter here. It would clearly not be a surprise if she won again but I will let her beat me if she can.

I'm not especially excited about the rest, though Nurse Susan looked very good at Leicester before finding Love Envoi better than her in the mud at Lingfield.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Hard to be conclusive though it does look as though Brandy Love will try to make all, perhaps assisted or harried by Tweed Skirt. The pace is expected to find plenty out.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection

I don't normally bet in this race but I get the impression that Dinoblue might be pretty good. As such, I've had a small play at 11/4 which I think is reasonable for an interest. Statuaire can be forgiven her defeat last time and might be a touch of each way value if you can get loads of extra places.

Suggestion: Dinoblue could be special and I've bought a ticket to find out. Statuaire is a Grade 1 winner and that entitles her to each way respect at 20/1 with five places.

*

5.30 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)

Can trends be our friend? I very much hope so.

14/14 had 2-6 runs this season (did not: 0/65, 10p)
14/14 had 0-4 runs in Class 2's (5+ ; 0/84, 12p)
13/14 aged 7-9 (6: 0/16,2p, 10+ : 1/80, 12p)
13/14 sent off 16/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 1/187, 14p)
13/14 within 8lb of top rated (9lb or lower: 1/123, 12p)
13/14 carried 11-4 or more (exc jockey claims) (11-3< : 1/129, 12p)
13/14 had 0-2 chase wins (3+ : 1/129, 15p)
13/14 ran in races for 5yo+ and 6yo+ LTO: (did not: 1/93, 10p)
12/14 official rating 137+ (136< : 2/175, 18p)
12/14 had 0-7 runs in handicap chases (8+ : 2/132, 17p)
11/14 had run at G1 or G2 level in careers (had not: 3/132, 15p)

The shortlist includes both of the Irish plots, Frontal Assault and School Boy Hours. The former has top weight as a result of his strong novice chase form and tries a handicap chase for the first time. He was only 8th of 22 in the Martin Pipe behind Galopin Des Champs last season as a 16/1 chance and rates a good bit shorter here at a trip which ought to suit better than last season's Festival tilt. He represents the Gordon Elliott (and alter ego, Denise Foster) team who have won this the last two years, and three times in the last six.

School Boy Hours won a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown last time which, conventional wisdom has it, is not the way to get the right mark to score at Chelto. But last day winners can double up in the Kim Muir, as Ballabriggs, The Bushkeeper, Honey Mount and Celtic Giant prove. The only one of those to do it since 2002 was Ballabriggs and that was in 2010, so it's not a positive for all that nor is it the home time bell to his chance.

Nicky Henderson is having a great meeting and one who fits the impossible to find historical profile is Janika, who has done the square root of foxtrot oscar in terms of advancing his case this campaign. A career record of 1 from 15 in Britain is hardly exciting but this horse was rated 166 in 2019/20 when he won a Grade 2 and ran second in a Grade 1; and he was fifth of 26 in the Coral Cup last season off a nothing prep. It's a Grand Canyon-esque leap of faith to back him on his current form but still, why not?

More obvious from the Hendo barn is Mister Coffey, on whom the galloping dentist, Sam Waley-Cohen, takes the ride. A non-winner of three this season, he's peppered the target without affecting his handicap mark one scintilla. A novice, he was last seen chasing home L'Homme Presse in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown. That was two and a half miles, this is three and a quarter, and the obvious stamina question remains unanswered. He's not really bred to go this far but it would only need to bring out a smidge of improvement for him to be a player: he'll travel easily at this more leisurely meter and then we'll see.

Henry de Bromhead saddles Ain't That A Shame, second to Galopin Des Champs and third to Stattler this season, granted at a daylight distance. Still, this is no Grade 1 and those are top class staying novices, so he can be expected to play a part if his stamina lasts out over a quarter mile further than he's raced before.

One proven at the trip is Omar Maretti, who has been progressive and looked better the further the race distance. Jockey Dale Peters may be a new name to some - he was pretty much to me - but he's won on four of his nine Rules rides this season, and on eight of 29 (28% strike rate) all told, so can be trusted in this context. Omar is ascendant from a lower base than some classier rivals but he brings proven stamina, a winning attitude, and is a square price. Interesting.

And no consideration of a Festival amateur riders' race is complete without a review of the mount of the professional's professional amateur, Mr Jamie 'JJ Codd-father' Codd. He's up top on Smoking Gun, whose Porterstown Chase win in November showed he both stays and handles quicker ground. He's a bit more exposed than your average Elliott handicap runner these days but his chance is clear enough.

Kim Muir Pace Map

It's hard to be confident on how things will go, with so many amateurs (for all that they're the best, most experienced in their peer group). Mindsmadeup is a perennial forward goer and he may be joined by any/all of Almazhar Garde, Red Infantry and Fakir d'Alene. Likely to be run at a testing lick.

Kim Muir Pace Map

Kim Muir Pace Map

Kim Muir Selection

Tricky. Obviously. I think Frontal Assault has to be on the shortlist though he's a dreadful price. Smoking Gun is hardly a sexy price either, though has a strong claim and both Omar Maretti and Mister Coffey are solid home team players.

Suggestion: Back a couple for small change with loads of places. Maybe Omar Maretti will continue his progress for the Alex Hales yard.

*

It's a very tough card is Thursday's, even if you've found the previous two days challenging, but every race has a winner and perhaps we'll land butter side up somewhere through the afternoon.

Good luck!

Matt

Your first 30 days for just £1