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With the 2025 Cheltenham Festival now fading out of sight in the rear view mirror, and with Aintree and, gasp, the flat season emerging on the horizon, now is a perfect moment to have a quick think about the 2026 Cheltenham ante post markets.
There's obviously any amount of unpredictability to be visited on the scene in the ensuing 360-odd days but that's accounted for at least to some degree in the prices, all of which affords a small swing at a big payoff. I won't be tying up much capital in this venture, but it's a bit of fun and could give us plenty of highs and lows as the narrative plays out through Aintree, Punchestown and then the Autumn, Winter and Spring of 2025/6.
First things first: I'm not interested in the novice hurdle races. None of the last three Supreme winners had any degree of public profile a year prior to their successes, and the hokey cokey between Baring Bingham and Albert Bartlett is a targets guessing game nobody can win. The novice chases offer slightly more hope but even there we've the challenge of knowing which are natural hedge hoppers and which will stay over hurdles.
Best then to focus on the open championship events: the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and Gold Cup. Here's goes (next to) nothing...
Champion Hurdle 2026
This looks likely to be a very open division next season. Constitution Hill has not come back to his old form, though he has kept on winning - barring that tumble last week. He'll only be nine next year and has few miles on the clock for various reasons; but he's been famously tough to get right and is readily opposed in the context of a project like this.
State Man is the same age as Connie and would have been an unambiguous winner this year but for that last flight brain fart from Townend (just my opinion). That performance was a surprise in one way but not in another. After all, he was the reigning champ in spite of a middling season; and, once Constitution Hill had exited he had only Brighterdaysahead to beat on the form book. Her position in the market owed everything to trainer Gordon Elliott's high regard and to a single thirty length win that was very, very hard to interpret literally. She'll surely go to the Mares' Hurdle, or chasing, next season.
Golden Ace was the beneficiary of the champ's late departure. I loved the story, but I don't think for a second she'll be good enough to defend her crown. So we're looking for a new champion, on my reading anyway.
The top four in the current ante post lists are Con Hill, The New Lion, Lossiemouth and Kopek Des Bordes. Let's first deal with Lossiemouth. To my eye, she wants at least two and a half miles and if connections are seeking a championship she should be going up, not down, in trip. We'll get to that in due course. She was outpaced at Kempton behind Constitution Hill, and she fluffed her lines for no credible reason when going hoof to hoof with State Man. At a tempo that suited far better, in the 2m4f Mares' Hurdle, she waltzed away from a smart mare in Jade De Grugy without in any way suggesting her stamina bottom had been reached.
The New Lion has to be in the argument after what was an impressive win in the Turners (Baring Bingham). That's not been as good a trial for the Champion Hurdle as some have made out, the only recent winner to double up in the Champion in recent times being Faugheen in 2014/15. Another novice, Kopek Des Bordes, is as short as 4/1 and as long as 10/1 to win next year's Champion Hurdle, perhaps summing up the challenges of identifying race plans. The aforementioned C Hill did the Supreme/Champion Hurdle double in 2022/23 and this lad looks highly promising... if he stays hurdling.
I'm not at all convinced by Triumph winner Poniros at this stage, though he may yet develop into a five-year-old Champion Hurdler; but one Festival winner that is worth a second look in this market is Kargese. Her form has been under-rated - she's a dual Grade 1 scorer and hasn't been out of the first two in ten runs - in spite of a tendency to over-race. She easily won the County Hurdle off a mark of 141, the exact same County mark from which State Man prefaced his Champion Hurdle score a year later. True, he had more of a 'dark horse' profile but Kargese's form is really, really good (I noted in my County Hurdle preview how I felt last year's juveniles generally, and her in particular, had perhaps been underrated).
She'll have to improve a stone and more from an official mark of around 145 and she might be kept to mares' only races and aimed at the Mares' Hurdle. In her case, as one who tends to pull quite a bit, a shorter faster test might be just the ticket. She'd get the 7lb mares' allowance if running in the Champion Hurdle and would be bidding to emulate Golden Ace, Honeysuckle, Epatante and Annie Power who between them won five of the last ten Champion Hurdles. Importantly, she's a price - 33/1 - for a throwaway dart.
Suggestions: Many of these have some sort of chance if lining up a year from now. But, in a number of cases - notably Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead, Lossiemouth, and perhaps Kopek Des Bordes - they are either fragile or have other potential routes. State Man will be a year older and the race fell in his lap this year, before he declined the opportunity. Poniros might be more credible if winning at Punchestown but I'm not quite subscribing to him yet; and Golden Ace was a glorious advertisement for buying a lottery ticket, but should be lottery odds to do it again.
That leaves me with The New Lion and, more tentatively, Kargese.
Back The New Lion at 7/1 win only. For tiny stakes, try Kargese at 33/1 win only.
Queen Mother Champion Chase 2026
The Champion Chase is a favourite's graveyard, seven odds-on shots getting turned over in the past decade. And yet the game remains to try to get a horse to the race at a shorter - ideally, much shorter - price than was taken.
An obvious starting point is this year's winner, Marine Nationale, who was winning the argument with Quilixios when that one came down at the last, eventually scoring by a slightly misleading 18 lengths. Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort and he'll be following the precedent of both Altior and Energumene in trying double up aged nine next season. If he gets to the gig, he'll have leading claims.
Jonbon would have been much closer if he'd not rearranged the furniture in the back straight. But would he have beaten the winner? Possibly, but not definitely. In any case, he'll be ten next year and that list of excuses for getting beaten at Cheltenham is growing.
The absent and much-missed Sir Gino is 7/2 favourite in ante post lists. Given that, as far as I'm aware, he only came out of an equine hospital on Monday, he wouldn't be a huge pile shorter than 7/2 to race again, let alone win a Festival Grade 1. I really, really hope he does get back, and that he retains his ability; but his quote in this market is ludicrous. He's half the price of the demonstrably alive and kicking winner from last week!
Back in the real world, there's a strong argument to be made that Majborough would have won the Arkle but for bungling two out - you've got to jump 'em! - and that, therefore, 8/1 about his Champion Chase chance is a sliver of value. Sizing Europe did the Arkle/Queen Mother double in 2010/11 and, since then, so too have Sprinter Sacre and Altior. Of course, Maj would not be reprising those multi-year heroics because he didn't complete the first part of the job; but the Arkle remains a rock solid Champion Chase trial.
Gaelic Warrior has a big squiggle against him though it surprised me to discover he's still only seven, so will be eight next year. Age won't stop him, then, but he's not an ante post conveyance by any measure of the phrase. If Fact To File doesn't go to the Gold Cup - presumably after winning the King George - then the game's up: a fit FTF is unlikely to go shorter than a repeat Ryanair tilt, so I can't have him on my mind for the two mile championship.
Ballyburn is Pirandello's idea of a character in search of an author. I'm sure he knows the part he was born to play, but seemingly none charged with his care do. That's grossly unfair, of course, and I merely mean that there's a lack of clarity around where best to crystalise Ballyburn's undeniable ability. I feel it might be over hurdles and over further. But, like those closer to the decision making than me, I don't really know (though I'm pretty sure it's not two miles and fences).
Il Est Francais is a big no here, even though they might try. He's very in and out, and a repeat attempt at a King George - which so nearly paid off - ought to be on the cards. That would be a weird warm up for a Champion Chase.
Although he's not quite for me, Solness has been somewhat discarded in this market. He won two Grade 1's in the run up to Cheltenham and, with a more measured campaign next season, could definitely emerge as a contender. I get the impression his rise this term took connections somewhat by surprise leaving him possibly a tad over-cooked when Cheltenham came around. He'll only be eight next March and he should not be 40/1.
At the other end of the pace spectrum is Jango Baie. He got what for me was the ride of the meeting from Nico de Boinville in winning the Arkle. As a strong stayer who probably wants 2m4f, the plan at the outset was to lead and set a searching gallop. But when a couple of others wanted to do that, Nico reined his lad in and let them have at it in front of him. He hunted around off the pace until after the second last and then came with one withering run to mow down the flagging pugilists up top. I'm by no means his biggest fan, but this was a deliberate and masterful piece of steering from NdB.
Anyway, the point is that the Champ Chase can be run in similar fashion and that would allow a reprisal of this performance for Jango Baie were he to be invited here rather than the more obvious Ryanair. He would actually be bidding for the Arkle/Champion Chase double!
Suggestions: Sir Gino may rise to the top of this tree but he has much further to climb than most in order to achieve that. Apart from wagering, I seriously hope he does. I thought he might have won the Champion Hurdle this year but, as we know, connections opted for a different path. He makes a market that is 7/1 bar him in a race which rarely gets more than eight or nine runners. If you can get one to the start line, then, you have half (or, more correctly, a third of) a chance of hitting the frame.
This is pretty simple for me in terms of long range ante post. Marine Nationale must be on the ticket, and so must Majborough. Tiny tickles at huge prices on Solness and Jango Baie are not without merit.
Back Marine Nationale at 7/1 win only. Back Majborough at 8/1 win only.
Maybe limp in with either or both of 33/1 Jango Baie and/or 40/1 Solness.
Stayers' Hurdle 2026
I've put 6/1 Teahupoo (soft ground), 12/1 Ballyburn (in case he reverts to hurdles) and 20/1 Lossiemouth (this is the race for her in 2026, I just need to persuade Willie!) in some very speculative trebles but couldn't sensibly recommend you do likewise. All of the caveats very much emptored.
Gold Cup 2026
Back on a punting footing which could be described as at least relatively terra firma next to the Stayers' Hurdle market, the 2026 Gold Cup is unlikely to suddenly deliver a swathe of new candidates for primacy.
Inothewayurthinkin was a clear and unambiguous winner last week, and even if the wonderful Galopin Des Champs was a touch under par (which I certainly feel he was), the young buck holds all the cards going into next season. Galopin will be eligible for veterans' races from January 2026, as will third placed Gentlemansgame, fifth placed The Real Whacker and seventh placed Banbridge. Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor already have their bus passes, as it were.
Monty's Star will be nine and could not be fully discounted given a very wet Festival Friday, but his form is not as good as Inothewayurthinkin and he doesn't have the upside potential either. Looking at the Gold Cup winner's form profile this season, there's a case to be made for him drifting in price between now and next March - he was beaten by diminishing margins in each of his three pre-Cheltenham races this term - and that tempers ante post enthusiasm a little at this stage. On the other hand, were those defeats with a workable Grand National mark in mind?
Also in the green and gold is the Ryanair winner, Fact To File. Last year's Broadway (RSA as was) Novices' Chase winner at three miles was pointed at the shorter G1 last week, and fair bolted up in that assignment. Indeed, it was probably - or at least arguably - the performance of the meeting. I'm not totally convinced he'll last an extra six furlongs in the Gold Cup, but there cannot be another race to entertain him in at this stage.
Galopin is highly unlikely to be able to get a third Gold Cup aged ten and 8/1 is a sucker price, I'm afraid. Fastorslow has tended to be slow when overmatched; Grey Dawning was pulled up in the King George and ducked Cheltenham for pot hunting at Kelso - that doesn't put him in the Gold Cup picture; Majborough would be very doubtful to go this far aged six; and the rest are going to need to find a stone from somewhere which, while not impossible - I've suggested Kargese can maybe do that in the Tuesday feature - feels unlikely in their, typically more exposed, cases.
Suggestions: Few things in life are as simple as first meets the eye, so there's an above average chance I'm not giving this enough consideration. With that said, it looks an open and shut case for the two green and gold Festival winners in open Grade 1 chases last week. Yes, they're short (about 9/4 dutched), but if they stay healthy (a reasonably sized 'if', granted) they are head and shoulders above what we know of the others, the venerable veteran dual champ aside.
Back Fact To File at 6/1 win only.
Hold fire on Inothewayurthinkin at 5/1 as he could drift after a defeat early next season. That would be the time to bet him, at nearer 10/1. [Galopin went out to 6/1 after getting beaten in the John Durkan first time up last season]
Summary
It's all a bit of fun this far out - and indeed much closer to the day - so if you feel like following me in, keep it small and manageable is my advice. If one of them wins, it'll pretty much pay for the rest losing. And, because I love a bit of mugginess, I've permed a few of them in wildly ambitious trebles: well, faint heart never won fair maiden and all that.
At the very least, a bet like this gives us something to look forward to, and to shout about, in the year-long buildup to the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. That in itself is worth a small cheer!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2.79393753-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-18 17:33:112025-03-18 17:33:11Taking a Flyer on the 2026 Cheltenham Festival
Each day of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival for you!
Onto 'DAY FOUR' and it's Gold Cup Day - did you know? All of the last 22 Gold Cup winners were aged 9 or younger. Can Galopin Des Champs, who has won the last two Gold Cups, become the first three-time winner of the race since Best Mate?
You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.
• 24 of the last 31 winners won last time out
• 9 of the last 16 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• Irish have won 9 of the last 12 runnings
• French-breds have filled 15 of the last 24 places (last 10 runnings)
• 15 of the last 20 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 14 of the last 17 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
• Respect Nicky Henderson (7 winners), Willie Mullins (5 winners), Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Alan King-trained runners
• The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (2022 winner Vauban won that race and 2023 winner Lossiemouth was runner-up in it, 2024 winner Majborough was 3rd in it)
• 10 of the last 14 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (8 of the last 13) last time
• 10 of the last 13 winners had raced by Christmas time
• 8 of the last 10 winners began their careers in France
• Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
• Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 11 years
• Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 5 runnings (2 with Rich Ricci-owned horses)
Negatives….
• Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
• Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
• Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
• Just 2 of the last 20 winner returned bigger than 12/1
• Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 16
• Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners (to have run in the race) have all lost (all unplaced too)
2:00 – County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV
• The Irish have won 12 of the last 18 runnings
• 9 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (5) or Dan Skelton (4)
• Willie Mullins has won 7 of the last 15 runnings
• 19 of the last 24 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
• 15 of the last 19 winners were rated in the 130’s
• 9 of the last 17 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
• 8 of the last 16 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
• 14 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 12 of the last 26 winners aged 5
• 7 of the last 11 winners had run at Cheltenham before
• 12 of the last 18 winners Irish-trained
• 10 of the last 17 winners started their careers in France
• 15 of the last 19 winners were priced in double-figures
• 14 of the last 21 winners began their careers on the flat
• Look for Mullins, Skelton, AJ Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
• Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
• 10 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
• 12 of the last 24 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 18 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 5 of the last 9 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
• Paul Nicholls is 4 from 33 (+14pts)
• Willie Mullins is 5 from 57 (+43.25pts)
• Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 4 of the last 9 winners
• No back to back winner of the race ever since first run in 1920
Negatives….
• Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
• Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
• Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-25) since 2011
• Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-36) this century
• Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 39 in last 17 runnings
• Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
• Since 1961, only 10 winners had run at the Festival before
• Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
• Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
• Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 3 winners have defied this stat
• Just 2 winning outright favourites in last 23
• Just 3 of the last 17 winners returned a single-figure price
• Only 4 previous runnings
• Willie Mullins trained 2 winners
• Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
• All 4 winners have been 2nd favourite
• All 4 winners won last time out
• 3 of the 4 winners rated 150+
• 3 of the 4 winners owned by JP McManus
• All 4 winners aged 7-8
• 3 of the 4 winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before
• All Irish trained winners
• No winning favourites
2024 Winner: STELLAR STORY (33/1) Trainer – Gordan Elliott Jockey – Sam Ewing UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 10 of the last 20 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
• 17 of the last 20 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
• 7 of the last 20 winners won the Hyde or Bristol Classic that season
• 17 of the last 20 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
• 9 of the last 13 winners had won a Point
• 8 of the last 11 winners trained in Ireland
• 10 of the last 16 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
• 10 of the last 14 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
• 9 of the last 20 came from the top 5 in the betting
• 10 of the last 20 winners ran 47 days (or more) ago
• 16 of the last 20 had run in a race over 3m
• 17 of the last 19 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 15 of the last 20 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
• 17 of the last 20 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 13 of the last 20 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
• 16 of the last 19 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 4 of the last 19 favourites won
• Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
Negatives….
• Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
• Challow Hurdle winners have poor Festival record
• Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
• Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
• No winning fav in the last 10
• Gordon Elliott is 1-from-14
• Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 20)
• Nicky Henderson is 0-from-14 in the last 12 years
• 5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 120)
• Only 4 of the last 19 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year
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The 2025 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
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Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.
Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.
2024 Winner: GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (10/11 fav) Trainer – Willie Mullins Jockey – Paul Townend UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 20 of the last 25 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
• 21 of the last 24 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 20 of the last 25 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
• 12 of the last 19 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
• 24 of the last 25 winners were Grade 1 winners
• Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
• 20 of the last 24 had won or placed at the Festival before
• 20 of the last 24 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
• 22 of the last 25 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
• 15 of the last 17 winners ran 3 or less times that season
• 17 of the last 28 winners were bred in Ireland
• 18 of the last 24 winners won last time out
• 12 of the last 22 winners were favourites (55%)
• 14 of the last 20 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
• ALL of the last 25 winners were aged 9 or younger
• 24 of the last 25 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
• 22 of the last 25 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
• Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
• 5 of the last 14 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
• Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 4 of the last 6 runnings
• Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won the last 6 between them
Negatives….
• Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
• No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 77)
• Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
• Just one past winner for Gordon Elliott (Don Cossack)
• Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 52
• Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
• Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
• Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
• Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
• Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
• No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase
4:40 - St James's Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV
2024 Winner: SINE NOMINE (8/1) Trainer – Fiona Needham Jockey – Mr J Dawson UK/Irish: UK
Pluses…..
• 30 of the last 34 winners were aged under 11 years-old
• 28 of the last 39 won last time out
• 9 of the last 10 winners aged 10 or 11
• 20 of the last 22 winners Irish or French bred
• The last 18 winners were yet to win over this trip (rules)
• 8 of the last 15 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
• 10 of the last 16 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
• 32 of the last 36 started out in point-to-point races
• 15 of the last 19 winners ran 34 days or less ago
• Respect the Irish runners (won 9 of last 14)
• 14 of the last 19 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
• 10 of the last 16 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
• 15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 11 of the last 15 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 12, rated 138+)
• 3 back-to-back winners in the last 13
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times (winning most trainer)
Negatives….
• Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
• Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
• Just 2 winners in the last 48 years aged 12 or older
• 30 of the last 39 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
• Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 37 runnings
• Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
• Gordon Elliott has never won this race
• Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
• Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
• British bred horses are 1-90 (last 22 runnings) (Sine Nomine, 2024)
• Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
• Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 271 since 1990
• Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
5:20 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV
2024 Winner: BETTER DAYS AHEAD (5/1) Trainer – Gordon Elliott Jockey – Danny Gilligan UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 14 of the last 16 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
• 12 of the last 14 winners placed in the top 3 last time
• All of the last 16 winners carried 11-1 or more
• 3 of the last 7 winners had top-weight
• All 16 winners aged 7 or younger
• 10 or the last 13 winners rated 138+
• 14 of the last 16 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
• 7 of the last 11 winners were Irish-based Novices
• Irish have won 9 of the last 14 (7 making handicap debuts)
• 38 of the 40 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
• Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
• 13 of the 16 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
• 8 of the 16 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 11 winners had run over a longer trip that season
• 9 of the 16 winners were rated 133-139
• 9 of the 16 winners returned at a double-figure price (12 of the last 16 were 16/1 or less)
• 5 and 6 year-old have won 14 of last 16 runnings
• Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
• Willie Mullins is 4 from 27 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 14 runnings)
• Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
• Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 12 years
• Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
• Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 6
• Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 10 of the last 12 between them
Negatives….
• Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
• Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 71
• Just 1 winning fav in the 16-year history (9-14 returned in double-figures)
• Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 85
• Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
• Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-107
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/sizingjohn_2017goldcup.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2025-03-13 17:44:272025-03-13 18:38:312025 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 14th March 2025)
And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.
Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...
1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Triumph Hurdle changed complexion hugely with the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005. The average field size in the previous decade was 26. In the Fred Winter era that average has shrunk to 16, and just 13 in the last decade. All races evolve so we need to be careful when using trends that include renewals from a long time ago - for the Triumph it is often best to calculate trends starting in 2005. Incredibly, this year there are 18 slated to face the starter.
Possibly the biggest under-bet factor in juvenile hurdles more generally is that, being so young, these horses often develop more during the season than older novices – and they develop at different times. It’s not uncommon for juveniles to go backwards as they develop physically. With so many more of the juveniles now being jumps-bred rather than having had a long career on the flat nowadays I think that’s a factor that’s likely to keep increasing in importance.
It is therefore a division to be particularly open-minded about whether form will be repeated. In the Triumph that question is especially impacted by the quality of the trials. Britain has four Grade 2 and five Listed trials for the Triumph. These races often lack depth: this century all nine Triumph winners that contested a British Grade 2, won that Grade 2.
In Ireland it’s a different story. The programme is designed to funnel the best horses together and typically a lot run in the Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival. Since it became a Grade 1 in 2010, it’s produced nine Triumph winners but only three were doing the double. Put another way, backing Grade 1 Spring winners in the Triumph would have lost you 30% of your betting bank, whereas backing the losers would have made you a 106% profit.
The Spring is run in early February and, given the ‘development factor’ I outlined above, another trend is to focus on recent Graded form more widely. You might think that Graded form (including Grade 1 winning form) in the novice and juvenile Grade 1s at the Festival would be so obvious as to be over-bet. But that’s often not the case – for example, if since 2005 in the Triumph you’d backed every unbeaten hurdler that had won a Graded hurdle, you’d have made a +23 (79% ROI) profit.
However, if you restricted that to unbeaten hurdlers who had won a Graded hurdle since the turn of the year the record improves to +28 (117% ROI) and would have identified the same eight winners.
East India Dock won the Grade 2 Finesse in great style in January. He likes a sound surface, is proven at the track and on form he arguably has enough in hand to suggest he should be odds-on here.
Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners
Triumph Hurdle Pace Map
A big field and should be lots of pace on. East India Dock tends to lead in his races but I don't think he needs to. Should track and get first run. Obviously, Willie has plenty of tactical options with his ELEVEN runners!
Triumph Hurdle Selection
East India Dock should be shorter on form, some of the horses around him owe their price more to reputation than track performances.
Suggestion: Back East India Dock to win at 2/1 or bigger.
Matt's Tix Pix: East India Dock on A, a couple of alternates on B
The formerly indecipherable County Hurdle has been rendered a coin flip between Messrs Mullins, W., and Skelton, D. in recent times. Indeed, in a race typically with 20+ runners, it's faintly bonkers that they've gobbled up nine of the most recent ten renewals. Willie also won it in 2010 and 2011 for good measure.
True, they tend to come mob-handed, but their winners have been 12/1, 33/1, 11/4, 11/2, 12/1, 33/1, 20/1, 8/1 and 25/1.
Five- and six-year-olds - in other words, seriously unexposed horses - have generally been the winning ticket, though they've also saddled three eight-year-old winners between them, at odds of 33/1, 12/1 and 20/1. So if not a young horse then demand a price, maybe.
Two of those older winners were very high class, and rated accordingly (146 and 158) while the younger horses - indeed all other winners bar Belfast Banter (129) since 2009 - were rated 134 to 141; and if you ignore subsequent Champion Hurdle winner State Man (extremely unlucky not to double up on Tuesday), that band narrows to 134-139. A feature of this race is that all winners since 2009 were patiently ridden, either in midfield or held up.
Of the Mullins gang this time, Daddy Long Legs is rated too high for a young horse, and Absurde has shown his hand too much, surely. But the other pair, Ethical Diamond and Kargese, are of clear interest. The former was five lengths behind the latter in last year's Spring Juvenile at DRF before completely failing to fire on heavy at Cheltenham next time. This season, after a promising effort on the flat at Royal Ascot, he ran down the field in a handicap at Christmas before bolting up in a very ordinary maiden hurdle. None of the 16 that followed him home there and ran since has won, from 19 collective attempts; and Ethical Diamond has been raised 12lb from his pre-race Irish mark (the Irish handicapper raised him only 6lb). He'll probably appreciate better ground but looks fairly harshly weighted all things considered, even if he is open to improvement.
Kargese is probably Willie's most obvious chance. She's never been out of the first two in nine career starts, four of them Grade 1's, two of them winning Grade 1's. Her form when within a length of Take No Chances has been well advertised by that one running third in the Mares' Hurdle, and it is possible the handicapper has underrated the ability of last year's juveniles. She has 141, the same mark as State Man won from and, while she is unlikely to be of his calibre, she may be a fair bit better than she's currently rated. She's versatile in terms of run style and will surely be waited with and, though it's a tough ask for a mare, Spirit Leader won back in 2003 from just a smallish number to have tried.
And what about Team Dan? Well it's only Valgrand for him, one shot wonder this year. This lad was impressive when racking up a hat-trick in early season, none more so than in a Grade 2 on good ground here. He was put in his place by Potters Charm when stepped up in trip, again around here, next time and has since got a five pound rebate from the handicapper for two non-descript efforts. He arrives here as a six-year-old novice on a perch of 134 and has been rested 77 days since, three of Skelton's four wins being rested 80, 97 and 124 days. Too easy? Maybe, maybe not.
With such a duopoly in the past decade, it's difficult to try to make a case for another though there are obviously plenty of respected operators in what is a smaller than usual field - just 16 declared. Principle among those shrewdies could be Joseph O'Brien who bids to win at back to back Festivals with Lark In The Morning, the 2024 Fred Winter champ. He's run acceptably twice since then, once for the UK handicapper, but still gets 2lb more weight than he had in that Haydock sighter. It's possible his best form is on softer turf than it's likely to be, but there's little doubt he'll have been optimally prepared.
County Hurdle Recent Winners
County Hurdle Pace Map
A smaller field this year and no obvious front runner. I doubt it'll be a tactical affair but it's difficult to call who'll make the pace.
County Hurdle Selection
I'm keeping this simple. I think Kargese is plenty short enough for all that I love her chance (and backed her ante post at bigger), so I'll suggest Valgrand to 'return to form'. Ethical Diamond is punitively handicapped but may still make the frame.
This race has only been run for four years so there are no long term past trends to dig into. Instead, I have looked at the last ten years of mares only Class 1 chases between 2m3f and 2m6f. There have been 46 such races of which 35 have been won by either the favourite or the second favourite. This suggests that this type of race tends not to have much strength in depth, and the four winners of this particular Festival race have all been 3/1 or shorter.
Another key trend to note in these races is that last time out (LTO) winners outperform those horses who didn’t win last time. LTO winners have won 25 races from 106 (23.6%) compared with 21 from 177 (11.9%) for those that didn’t win last time. There is a big differential between the placed results, too, with LTO winners placing 45% of the time, while LTO non-winners are down at 25%.
Horses that have previously won a Graded or Listed event hit a 24% strike rate compared with a 12% strike rate for those that have not.
Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have scored more than twice as often as those that were third or higher in the market. Not only that they have been better value with an A/E index of 0.96 compared to 0.81.
This year nine runners go to post with four rated over 150 and it will be a massive surprise if something rated lower wins this. Let’s look at the four main protagonists.
Willie Mullins has had two wins and two seconds in this race, and he runs two here which are first and second in the betting. Firstly, he has Dinoblue, runner up in the race last year. In that 2024 renewal jockey Mark Walsh may have been taken by surprise when the winner, Limerick Lace, kicked turning in and that could have cost her the race. Walsh will be keen not to allow any horse too much rope turning in this time around. A positive is that she ticks all the boxes from the trends shared above. A concern is that she generally races over 2 miles or 2 miles 1 furlong and, despite going close last year, this trip might be right on her limit stamina wise. She is likely to go off a short-priced favourite.
The Mullins second string is Allegorie De Vassy. She was fourth in this last year, second in 2023 and those were her only two runs at the track. Despite those two decent efforts she tends to jump out to her right, and I think that has cost her in the past here. She does arrive at Cheltenham in good form having finished second at Naas last time getting to within a quarter of a length of Dinoblue. That was over a shorter two-mile trip.
Limerick Lace, from the Gavin Cromwell stable, comes here as defending champion, but she has been beaten a total of 101 lengths in her last two starts. If it rains, her chances improve considerably but with the likely going good to soft I am happy to take her on at her current price.
Cromwell also runs Brides Hill. She has been turned over when odds on favourite in her last two runs which tempers enthusiasm a little. However, according to the trainer this has always been her target, and she should prefer the ground more than her stablemate. Her price reflects her recent form, but at her best she would be bang there
Mares' Chase Recent Winners
*New race in 2021
Mares' Chase Pace Map
Willie again holds the cards with both of his pair likely to be prominent in what should be an even paced tempo.
Mares' Chase Selection
Dinoblue is the most likely winner but with her trading around Evens in a nine-runner field is tight. For me this looks a race to tackle each way with Brides Hill.
3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Ah, the Spuds Race. There's a knack to punting this race, which is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season. With only one winner returned a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013, we're going to be taking a swing. Naturally, such an approach can be feast or famine, so the faint-hearted might favour a different tack. Me? At this stage (Wednesday after racing), I'm in a massive hole on the week and don't plan to smash my way free, so it's the only course of action. OK, to the profile.
We're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. Stellar Story last year was an archetypal winner so let's look at his form profile going into that race and see if we can't reverse engineer it:
The form image shows most recent (Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham) at the top, oldest at the bottom. Starting at the bottom, we can see he was a good bumper horse - good enough to win two of his three in that sphere. We can also see he'd got plenty of experience, adding four hurdle starts prior to the Festival to that trio of NH Flat spins. Next, note how he won a big field maiden hurdle before running well in defeat in small field Graded races, including at Grade 1 level at the Dublin Racing Festival. Before any of those Rules runs, he'd won an Irish point to point.
Stellar Story was available at 33/1 when I backed him a couple of weeks before his Spuds win, and he was sent off at the same price on the day. He was the 11th choice of the betting public!
Here's a horse running in the race this year:
He, too, won an Irish point prior to his Rules debut; and he also won two bumpers, including the Cheltenham Bumper when held up in a field of 19. Sent hurdling this term, he won in a field of 25 - count 'em! - on first start before being outpaced in consecutive Grade 1's. The horse in question is Jasmin De Vaux, of course, and he's now a little shorter than ideal. I backed him at 33/1 (bully for me, I know) but I'm not going to tip him here at 8/1 for all that he fits the bill.
Another that I like is Wingmen, second when Jasmin was fourth last time, in the Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1 at DRF. He won a bumper, then a maiden hurdle - beating Turners fourth Forty Coats - before being outpaced over 2m1f here. In two starts since that December sighter, he's finished third in the Lawlor's Of Naas and second as mentioned. He handles quick ground and has a very good profile for this.
Front runners have a good recent record in the race, as do prominent types, so that's a further positive to his chance; and his trainer, Gordon Elliott, won the race with the aforementioned identikit winner, Stellar Story.
And there's one more from the Leopardstown G1 worthy of a mention, I think. Sounds Victorius was fourth in the Champion Bumper last year, never nearer than at the finish. Second in a small field novice on hurdling debut, he then won a 12-runner maiden, leading then getting headed before outstaying a horse that looked very likely to win. Stepped straight up to Grade 1 level, he was again outpaced before plugging on. I'm not sure he's good enough for this - maybe he wants four miles rather than three - but he sort of fits the profile.
Fishery Lane was a six length fifth in last year's Champion Bumper and has looked fairly slow in his hurdle races to date. He's a bit of a flier on the basis that he's not run in Graded company over timber but that good effort at the Festival last year gives me some hope he can be competitive. He handles quicker ground and is surely in need of this extra road to slow the others down.
John McConnell went close in this in 2021 with Streets Of Doyen, and Intense Approach has a similar feel to that one: campaigned through the previous summer, a winning Cheltenham sighter at the October meeting before a midwinter break and one run prior to the Festival. Both had bundles of good ground form and were very experienced.
Of the Brits, Wendigo's Challow second to The New Lion could not have been better advertised, that one winning the Turners on Wednesday. The Challow has seen eight runs from its field since, five of them ending in victory; Wendigo won before and since that effort and could go well though I'm not convinced about his battling qualities (I could definitely be wrong on that).
There are a few classier types in the field, not least Jet Blue, Ballyhassen Paddy and the mare The Big Westerner; but there always are, and they usually get beat by the more streetwise contenders. At least that's the way to bet.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Just loads and loads of pace here. It'll be attritional I expect and you want one that can handle that sort of cauldron.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection
Very tricky and taking two (or three) win only pokes in this big field feels like a good idea. Jasmin De Vaux and Wingmen don't really fit the long price bill though both have their chance; I couldn't put you off a win bet on either. But at daft prices and for small money, I'll risk the trio of Fishery Lane, Sounds Victorius and Intense Approach win only.
Suggestion: Avoid the short-priced classy horses and punt something at a price that might be better suited to this kind of bare knuckle cage fight. Each of 25/1 Fishery Lane, 25/1 Sounds Victorius and 16/1 Intense Approach has a bit of a squeak if things fall kindly.
Matt's Tix Pix: I'll be putting some big prices on A and hoping to get a result.
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is almost impossible to oppose in the Gold Cup as he attempts to emulate Arkle and Best Mate in winning three Gold Cups in a row in the post-war era. Having won his third Irish Gold Cup last month, he has scared off stablemate Fact To File, the only horse who had looked a serious threat to his crown at Christmas when John Durkan form was reversed in the Savills Chase. Fact To File finished closer in the Irish Gold Cup but only because Townend plated rope-a-dope in front and turned the race into a sprint, impressing with how he quickened from the last to the line, while Fact To File was collared on the post for second by Grangeclare West.
Accidents can befall any horse, at home or on the racecourse, so there really is no such thing as a banker; but there is no strong reason to oppose the dual winner on what he’s shown this season, with his defeat at Punchestown in the John Durkan easy to forgive given he’s neither at his best over that trip or at that track, where his only defeats when completing over fences have come. Beaten by Fact To File there, he has shown the form to be misleading by slamming that talented rival twice at Leopardstown, brooking no argument as to which is the better horse.
With last year’s placed horses exiting stage left and Grey Dawning reportedly bypassing Cheltenham altogether, the Gold Cup looks the favourite’s to lose unless the ground dries back more than expected. In that scenario, Banbridge might be a danger to him having been confirmed for the race on the back of his King George win. I’ve liked Banbridge since watching him win the Martin Pipe in the company of Brendan Powell, who could not praise the horse highly enough, but while he proved his stamina for a sharp three miles of the King George, he still has the speed for two miles, and there are very few with that speed who can also stretch out the extra two and a half furlongs required up Cheltenham’s daunting hill.
I considered L’Homme Presse the horse most likely to follow Galopin des Champs home, but a minor setback has ruled him out. Corbett’s Cross showed at Ascot that he doesn’t jump well enough to win a race like this, and the supplemented Inothewayurthinkin is the better of the McManus hopes now that Fact To File has been rerouted.
In truth, Inothewayurthinkin is clearly not as good as Fact To File, having finished behind that rival in races won by Galopin des Champs on his last two starts. On the other hand, he’s also not capable of winning a Ryanair being a thorough stayer, and a Gold Cup weakened by withdrawals is a very realistic option for Gavin Cromwell’s 2024 Kim Muir winner. The Grand National is his main aim, but with questions over most of his rivals, he looks the one most likely to pick up the pieces in an attritional race.
Of course, a tactical affair will suit Banbridge better, but I suspect Paul Townend will be aware that Banbridge is the one who could spoil the party and will look to make this a test of stamina. That scenario is likely to see Banbridge look the main danger for much of the race, but Inothewayurthinkin will be staying on best after the last. While he’s unlikely to lay a glove on the favourite, he has every chance of out-slogging the classy Banbridge for second. At time of writing, seven of Gavin Cromwell’s 11 runners on the first two days have been placed or would have been placed but for a late fall, and his team is in better form than most at this meeting.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
There's a very good chance that Galopin Des Champs and Paul Townend keep it simple by bidding to make all. A few of his rivals need to try to get him out of his comfort zone so that's something to keep in mind, but the champ doesn't need to lead.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection
Suggestion: Try a Galopin des Champs/Inothewayurthinkin Exacta
4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)
Previewed by Paul Jones.
The news in the last few days surrounds Willitgoahead who has been bought and sent to Gordon Elliott who would have had no time to do anything with him so don’t let that have any effect on how you judge his chance. He is now more or less joint-fav with Angels Dawn having impressed with his jumping when winning at Thurles after racing in last early. I wouldn’t fancy those tactics being pulled off on the New Course so maybe he’ll sit handier early.
On the figures ANGELS DAWN is the one to beat as she receives a 7lb mares’ allowance here unlike when she won the Kim Muir two years ago (and would have been placed last year behind a Gold Cup hope but for a late fall). She also didn’t have that allowance when winning a point to point at Dromahane, beating Ryehill by 6l who has since run all over Itsontheline at Naas, and they are the other pair in the top four in the betting. Ryehill won that race despite a bad mistake three out and his jumping could let him down in this sterner test.
Angels Dawn is ten now, and up until last year the previous nine winners were aged ten or eleven. Sam Curling’s mare also finished a close-up third in last season’s Thyestes so competitive, big-field chases bring the very best out of her and I’m hoping that, after Sine Nomine last year, mares can bag back-to-back wins.
Runner-up for the last two seasons, Its On The Line is hard work but usually keeps pulling it out which is what made his Naas run, where he found little in the home straight, all the more disappointing. I think he needs to run himself into form/fitness as his very best efforts have been after Cheltenham but he is only reaching his prime now as he was just aged six and seven when runner-up for the last two runnings. Maybe Emmet Mullins had left more to work on at Naas than he is giving away (he had a hard race in that prep last year which may have taken an edge off him for Cheltenham?) but it was disconcerting to hear rumours that JP McManus, owner of Its On The Line, was trying to buy Willitgoahead: that may suggest a lack of confidence if the whispers are accurate.
Behind the Irish-trained top four in the market come four home hopes and the Brits have won three of the last four renewals. I can’t see Allmankind staying, and Music Drive has yet to run in a hunter chase (just one of those has won since 1993), so the other pair interest me more. Paul Nicholls has trained four Festival Hunter Chase winners so Shearer is respected, though I wonder if the Aintree Foxhunters’ might suit him better as he typically races over shorter trips and easier tracks.
So Fairly Famous appeals most of the home team. He beat the 2023 winner of this race, Premier Magic, by 4½l on Cheltenham’s Hunter Chase night back in early May (also won the same race by 15l the previous season) and has since won both his point to points this winter and clearly goes very well for Gina Andrews.
Rocky’s Howya was third two years ago but missed last season, which I know full well as was looking out for him as my horse for the 2024 version. He would have been closer but for meeting interference on the run-in behind Premier Magic and Its On The Line in 2023, so he also interests me now that he is back and won a point last time out.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map
The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection
Suggestion: Back 4/1 Angels Dawn to win, and/or consider 20/1 Fairly Famous and 18/1 Rocky's Howya each way.
Matt's Tix Pix: Angels Dawn and a few others on A, some bigger prices on B
A race that seemingly revolves around one horse this year, Kopek De Mee.
What we know about him; this will be his first start on British soil for Willie Mullins, having raced five times over hurdles in France for his previous yard and, as such, the handicapper hasn’t had a lot to go on, giving him his French mark of 136 (which he has to do, by the way).
It isn’t as if his French form means he’s thrown in here, though. Timeform, who can on occasions rave about these marks given to Willie’s from France, have him only fifth best, admittedly with a “p”, so progress is likely. Neither have we seen him for 310 days, and all his form so far has been on deep ground. We’ve seen good things beaten in this before; at 5-2 you can leave me out, thanks very much.
There’s one in here I’ve been keen on since his Warwick run at the start of February and those of you that have been lucky/unlucky enough to watch or listen to the podcasts I’ve been doing for a rival publication (sorry Matt) will know that No Ordinary Joe is the horse that caught my, and others', eyes that day.
No Ordinary Joe was seventh in the Martin Pipe last year when Nicky was having his week from hell, and this time around he’s been spared a hard campaign, racing just the three times this season but it was a much better effort at Warwick last time, despite not looking entirely fit.
He was close enough two out to throw down a challenge but Callum Pritchard looked after him a bit after the last, and despite only being beaten two lengths, and he looked like there was a bit left in the tank.
The handicapper left him alone for that, meaning a mark of 138 will be 2lb lower than last year, and although Pritchard has been claimed by Ben Pauling to ride No Questions Asked, Freddie Gingell, among the winners elsewhere this week, is a most able deputy.
Wodhooh is an in-form mare that’s unbeaten in six hurdles starts, and her defeat of Joyeuse and Take No Chances last time out is solid form, but the market has her well found. In some ways, I’d not be shocked if she went off favourite, given her form looks more solid than Kopek De Mee’s, but at the time of writing Gordon Elliott is not having the best of Festival weeks, with too many of his fading out of contention for comfort. That may change on Thursday or earlier on Friday but she only makes limited appeal.
At 33-1 I’ll also have a little bit on Electric Mason as the back-up selection. A good looker, he’s twice come up against The New Lion, beaten 4½ lengths on the first occasion and then nine lengths by him in the Challow. Needless to say, that form looks all the better after The New Lion’s win in the Turners earlier in the week, and a mark of 132 seems more than fair. The ground should suit and quotes of 25-1 and bigger are worth a fiver of your cash.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map
Another big field and some relatively inexperienced riders, so this ought to be quickly run from the start. It's been won by some really classy future chasers in the pase - see the list above - and it will be fascinating to see which Grade 1 horse(s) reveal themselves here.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Back No Ordinary Joe at 12/1 and/or Electric Mason at 33/1.
*
And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2025. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.
Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham, Matt Tombs and Paul Jones are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.
Be lucky.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/galopindeschamps_langerdan_cheltenhamMartinPipe2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-13 09:04:322025-03-13 09:32:21Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips
Each day of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival for you!
Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 16 of the last 20 winners had won at Cheltenham before.
While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize that Teahupoo won in 2024 and is a red-hot favourite to defend his title.
You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.
2024 Winner: GOLDEN ACE (10/1) Trainer – Jeremy Scott Jockey – Lorcan Williams UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• A new race (Just 9 renewals)
• All 9 winners aged 5 or 6
• 6 of the last 9 winners trained in Ireland, but last 3 UK trained
• Favourites have won 3 of the 9 runnings
• 6 of the last 9 winners won last time out
• 4 of the 9 winners were French-bred
• 5 of the last 9 winners were top or 2nd top rated
• 5 of the last 9 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 5 of the last 9 past winners started their careers in France
• 6 of the last 9 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
• 5 of the 9 winners were unbeaten that season
• 4 of the 9 winners have been aged 5 years-old
• 5 of the last 9 winners aged 6 (last 5)
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
• Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
Negatives….
• British trained runners are 3-from-61
• Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-12
• JP McManus owned are 0-from-10
• 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-24
2:00 – Jack Richard Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f ITV
2020 Winner: IMPERIAL AURA (4/1 fav) Trainer – Kim Bailey Jockey – David Bass UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
12 of the last 16 winners aged 6 or 7
13 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 2 last time
10 of the last 16 winners were a single-figure price
8 of the last 14 winners were previous bumper or point winners
50% of the last 8 winners ran in the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase on Trials Day
10 of the last 11 winners rated 137+
9 of the last 16 winners had only won once over fences
7 of the last 9 winners carried 11-7 or more
Brian Hughes has a good record ( 2 wins from just 5 rides)
9 of the last 10 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
The last 10 winners carried 11-2 or more
Negatives….
Just 2 of the last 16 winners didn't finish in the top 3 last time out
Just 1 on the last 16 winners had won more than two chase races
2024 Winner: MONMIRAL (25/1) Trainer – Paul Nicholls Jockey – Harry Cobden UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• Irish have won the last 7 of last 9 runnings
• Last 13 winners aged 8 or younger
• 9 of the last 17 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 12 of the last 24 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 14 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 13 of the last 18 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
• 12 of the last 14 winners were rated between 138-148
• 12 of the last 20 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 9 of the last 13 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 6 of the last 12 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
• 8 of the last 11 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 24 winners won their last race
• 6 of the last 9 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 3 of the last 16 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 7 runnings
• Respect horses with headgear (9 since 2000) & 8 of the last 9
• 8 of the last 9 winners wore a tongue-tie
• 7 of the last 9 winners Irish-trained
• 6 of the last 9 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)
Negatives….
• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
• Only 2 winning favourites in last 19 years
• Just 1 winner in the last 42 years aged 10+
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Paul Nicholls is currently 1 from 20 (One winner, One third and two 2nds in the last 11 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 54
2.50 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV
2023 Winner: PROTEKTORAT (17/2) Trainer – Harry Skelton Jockey – Dan Skelton UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 16 of the 20 winners had won at Cheltenham before
• 7 of the last 12 winners were 2nd season chasers
• All 17 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
• 13 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 14 of the last 17 had won or placed at the Festival before
• The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (8 from 31)
• The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
• 16 of the last 20 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
• 9 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 16 of the last 17 winners were rated 161+
• Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 7
• 4 of the last 20 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
• 14 of last 20 winners were fav or 2nd fav
• 11 of the last 17 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 16 of the last 20 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 9 of the last 13 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
• Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Henry De Bromhead & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time headgear (3 from 13)
• 11 of the last 17 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Last 11 winners were French-bred
• All winners ran 5 or less times that season
• 5 of the last 9 winners trained by Willie Mullins
• Last 13 winners aged 9 or younger
• The Irish have won 7 of the last 9 runnings
• Since upgraded (2008) ALL 17 winners had run at the previous year's Festival
Negatives….
• Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
• No winner aged 11 or older
• Only 1 of the last 15 winners aged 10
• Just one winner rated 160 or below
• Just 6 of the last 17 won last time out
• No winner was having their Festival debut
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The 2025 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
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2024 Winner: TEAHUPOO (5/4 fav) Trainer – Gordon Elliott Jockey – Jack Kennedy UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 14 of the last 20 won last time out
• 7 of the last 11 winners were second season hurdlers
• 21 of the last 25 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 31 of the last 35 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
• 19 of the last 24 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 19 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
• 10 of the last 23 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 8 of the last 18 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
• 20 of the last 25 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 15 of the last 20 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race
• 18 of the last 28 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
• 3 of the last 7 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Since 1987 all winners bar Sire Du Berlais (11) aged 9 or younger
Negatives….
• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
• Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
• The Irish are have won the race just 7 times since 1995 (but have won the last 4)
• Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
• Horses wearing headgear are 1 from 8
• Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 35 runnings
• Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since1986 (1 from 70) - 2023 year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (11)
2024 Winner: SHAKE UP’ARRY (8/1) Trainer – Ben Pauling Jockey – Ben Jones UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 28 of the last 37 winners were officially rated 140 or less
• 12 of the last 16 winners carried under 11-0
• Look out for French-breds
• 14 of the last 20 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
• 11 of the last 21 winners had won a race in Feb or March
• Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
• The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 27 runnings
• 18 of the last 24 winners returned at double-figure odds
• 24 of the last 33 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 13 were having Festival debut)
• 24 of the last 25 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 9 of the last 15 winners had 9 or less chase runs
• 19 of the last 25 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
• 7 of the last 9 winners were novices or second season chasers
• 19 of the last 21 winners had raced that calendar year
• Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
• 6 of the last 9 winners won last time out
• The last 6 winners had won at Cheltenham that season
• 3 of the last 6 ridden by a claiming jockey
Negatives….
• Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
• The Irish have only sent out 5 winners since 1982, but this could be turning with these all coming since 2016
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Only 4 of the last 21 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
• Just 4 winning favourites in the last 19 years
• Only 6 of last 30 winners won with 11st+
• Just 3 winners older than 9 in the last 12 years
• Only 2 of the last 21 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
5.30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV
• Respect horses aged between 7-9 year-olds (but last year’s winner 6)
• 12 of the last 17 winners failed to win earlier that season
• 11 of the last 17 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 10 of the last 13 winners rated between 137-143
• 10 of the last 15 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
• 10 of the last 15 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
• 12 of the last 16 winners ran in February
• Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 20 of the last 25 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 8 of the last 14 winners wore headgear
• 13 of the last 16 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019 and 2024
• Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (4 of the last 13)
• 20 of the last 22 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Negatives….
• Just 7 Irish winners in last 41 years (but have won 7 of the last 11)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 24
• Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race (never won it)
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
• French breds are 1 from 88 since 2005
• Just 2 of the last 20 winners aged 10+
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 3 from 114 since 2009
• Just 2 of the last 22 winners won last time out
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/PaisleyPark_Cleeve_830x320.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2025-03-13 09:00:522025-03-13 10:43:502025 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 13th March 2025)
Day Three, Thursday, and it's a case of New Courses for Old as we 'change ends' for the second half. Fresh ground, then, probably nicely watered so no excuses - apart from the obvious (picking the wrong horse).
1.20 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Full disclosure: this race is not my favourite. It's not because I haven't had a degree of success in finding the winner during its short history (new race in 2016) nor that I don't see its place at the Festival. On the contrary, I've backed a couple of good winners, and fully recognise the importance of such races for the mares' programme - something that is far more relevant to the breeding industry than the glut of Graded races for geldings which blighted the winter until this season. Hats off to the BHA for sorting that. That was an unexpected ranty sidebar to kick things off...
No, the reason I've not yet warmed to the Dawn Run is that it's been a bit second division more often than not. Perhaps this will be the year that ignites my attraction to it - finding the winner will help no end in that regard, so let's crack on.
You'll note a couple of things from the list of winners below. Firstly, Willie won the first five renewals of the race; and secondly, neither he nor any other Irish trainer has won in the past three renewals. It's a small sample size but offes hope to the domestics.
Sixandahalf has been almost a default ante post favourite, her one hurdles spin resulting in a twelve length beating of the expensive point recruit Qualimita. The problem with that is Qualimita appears not to be very good: she's been beaten twice since most recently at odds on. Still, Sixandahalf was also a very good bumper winner and switched codes to run third in the ultra-valuable Irish Cesarewitch (worth £223,000 and change more to the winner than the Dawn Run - sheesh).
She's inexperienced over hurdles, with just that one run, and might want a little further than this marginally extended two miles.
Maughreen is another one of dem Willie talking horses. She too has had just one try over hurdles, and she's less experienced generally than Sixandahalf, having only raced once prior - winning a bumper easily. So she's two from two and unextended each time. While a couple of winners have emerged from that hurdle score, one of them was subsequently beaten 20 lengths in a handicap hurdle off a lowly 102; she was 15 lengths behind Maughreen so make of it what you will.
Aurora Vega, thought to be on the sick list, is declared. There have been a few on the preview circuit keen to know her form but she's won six of her nine starts and all three of her completed hurdles starts, including when making all in a Grade 3 Mares' Hurdle last time. She's likely to be close to the pace which, in a big field, might not be optimal but her experience and ability to 'get it done' are assets that many of her rivals cannot match.
Galileo Dame, a four-year-old, has been declared here rather than in the Triumph and that looks a smart call. Although she faces elder rivals there's nothing of the proven ability of East India Dock and perhaps nothing of the rumoured ability of Lulamba in this field. Moreover, she receives a chunky 10lb weight allowance from the older mares. Trained by Joseph O'Brien, no stranger to Festival success, she has more experience than most of her rivals having finished second in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at the DRF as well as in her debut hurdle race; additionally, she ran eight times on the flat.
As a flat filly, she won a Leopardstown maiden (10f, heavy) before a tilt at the Irish Oaks where she was unplaced. Sights lowered to Listed class, she bagged silver in her final two goes on the level, eventually rated high-90's. If there's a niggle it might be that she tends to find one too good but she looks to be a serious player in this.
What is certain is that other mares have better form in the book for all that this pair can improve, perhaps significantly, from their current demonstrated levels. Recent winners have had more experience, and that is an asset for Karoline Banbou, a multiple podium finisher in French Graded AQPS races before getting off the mark over timber at the deuxieme time of asking in Ireland. That form is again open to question but she's shown up well in big fields and is a litte more streetwise than those at the top of the market.
Best of the home team in their quest for an unbroken four-timer in the Dawn Run is Jubilee Alpha, trained by Paul Nicholls - remember him? This six-year-old mare was second in the G2 Nickel Coin Mares' Bumper at Aintree, a race always loaded with talent, last spring. She's advertised that form herself in winning a Listed race at Taunton and a valuable Class 2 conditions event at Windsor. Taunton was the launchpad for Golden Ace's success in this race last year and we all know how much Nicholls would love winning this. He's got a bit of a chance with this mare.
Ben Pauling has an interesting one in Diva Luna. She was the mare to beat Jubilee Alpha in the Nickel Coin, and has since run 212 over hurdles. While I'm confident she'll step forward for her defeat at Sandown last time (at odds of 2/9 - ouch), the fact that the 2's were at two miles while the win was over two and a half, allied to her penchant for pacemaking, leaves her vulnerable to a finisher at this trip. There is a fair bit of rival front end speed, on paper at least, so that's another niggle regarding her case. I suspect she'll be a different proposition entirely when stepped back up in trip.
Nicholls has a second card to play in the shape of Just A Rose, an expensive recruit after winning a maiden point, but one who kept the dream alive for owners including the Brooks' (remember Saint Calvados and co?) when bolting up by 26 lengths in a Taunton maiden in mid-January. That's obviously a far cry from this test, but if you're considering backing Maughreen or Sixandahalf, the former especially, you'd get a squarer price on Just A Rose off a mirror image of a form case.
We all know to respect anything Henry de Bromhead saddles at the Cheltenham Festival and, as such, Air Of Entitlement is worthy of at least a second glance. True, she's only won a run of the mill bumper and an equally unremarkable maiden hurdle, well enough beaten in a Punchestown Festival bumper in between, so it's a leap of faith based on connections required. I can't immediately see it and will reluctantly allow her to beat me.
If this was two and a half miles, I'd be quite interested in the chance of Hollygrove Cha Cha, a winning machine for Hot To Trot Jumping. But it's not. At two miles, she's vulnerable as she showed with her only career defeat in six races behind Jubilee Alpha. Before and since then she's run thrice over hurdles at around two and a half miles and won each time, including in the Grade 2 Jane Seymour at Sandown last time. She's a lovely mare and one to follow, but this will probably be too sharp for her unless they go very hard early (which, in such a big field, they might).
Plenty of other unexposed ones, including Willie's Venusienne. She's too inexperienced to interest me, however.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
With so many runners, this is bound to be run at a right good lick.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection
An open race - far more so than the ante post betting suggested - and one where I want to take on Maughreen and Sixandahalf. Both have their chance but so do many others. At the prices, then, I'm keen on Galileo Dame with her experience and hefty weight pull; and will try a small each way on Jubilee Alpha to see Paul Nicholls do a Keegan.
Suggestion: Back 5/1 Galileo Dame to win and/or 9/1 Jubilee Alpha each way.
Matt's Tix Pix: I'm taking a fair few here across A and B - could be the placepot dividend maker
2.00 Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase (Handicap, 2m 4f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
This race is back after a four year hiatus and returns as the 2005-10 version, run on the New Course as a 20lb limited handicap with no ratings ceiling.
In practice, the ratings ceiling (140 between 2011 and 2017, 145 between 2018 and 2020) didn’t make that much difference. In the six renewals with no ratings ceiling no horse ran off higher than 148. The last ten renewals had a weight spread of between 4lb and 10lb so whether it is nominally a limited or full handicap has had little impact. It looks like being a different renewal this year with Springwell Bay running off 154 and a bigger weight spread below him.
This has also been a race where smaller yards have fared well. Willie Mullins has never won any handicap chase at the Festival, and neither Gordon Elliott nor Dan Skelton has won this race. Nicky Henderson, Henry de Bromhead and Paul Nicholls have won it once each. Six of the 16 winners were giving their trainers a first Festival winner so don’t be put off if a horse you fancy comes from a smaller yard.
A bit like the Plate, this has been a race for intermediate trip specialists: 12 of the 16 winners, including nine of the last ten, had shown their best chase form (judged by Racing Post Ratings) at intermediate trips.
Perhaps the most important trend is how predictable a race it has been. Lots of punters saw a 20-runner handicap chase for novices (as mentioned, the maximum field has been increased to 22) and thought it would be a bit of a lottery. In fact it’s been the most predictable handicap of the meeting over conventional obstacles. 13 of the 16 winners have come from the first five in the SP market, ten of which came from the first three in the betting. Don’t be put off taking a single figure price despite the big field.
A bit like the Fred Winter this has a trial that has proved a really strong guide – the 2m4½f novice handicap chase on Trials Day at Cheltenham in late-January. Four of the last eight winners contested it finishing 7312. It seemed a strong renewal of that novice handicap this year, with Whistle Stop Tour looking a leading contender for the Ultima and Resplendent Grey having decent claims in the National Hunt Chase. Moon D'Orange won on Trials Day despite a howler at the last and, despite a 6lb rise, he looks a player here.
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Pace Map
Another big field, and likely plenty of pace on once more.
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Selection
Suggestion: Try Moon D'Orange at 14/1.
Matt's Tix Pix: Two or three A's and hope to be lucky
A quick plug before I start this race as in Gary Wiltshire’s new book Fifty Years In The Betting Jungle that I co-wrote and published by Weatherbys, one of his many tales relates to the Pertemps from way back in 1983 when it was then the Coral Golden Hurdle, and won by Forgive ‘n Forget hosed up with Barney Curley’s fingerprints all over it. Plug over. [Book available here - Ed.]
After the Leopardstown qualifier that featured six of the last nine winners was run, I went for lightning to strike twice in backing FEET OF A DANCER at 16/1 each-way (four places at the time). She finished third there as did another Paul Nolan-trained mare in Mrs Milner which won the Final having also placed in the same qualifier. They ran almost identical races in that they travelled strongly and took it up only to be run out of it on the run-in. My concern is the drying ground as she likes cut but the New Course will have been watered for Day 1 of the two days they race on it if necessary.
Henderson and McManus have turned to first-time cheekpieces for the favourite, Jeriko Du Reponet, who was a running-on third in his qualifier. I don’t know, I just think there’s ‘something of the night’ about him and his stamina has to be taken on trust.
Even though he has won a qualifier, which is usually a no-no for the Final given that only two of the last 29 winners have done so, I prefer the Leopardstown winner Win Some Lose Some of the McManus pair. JP has won the Final four times before and Padraig Roche’s charge looks firmly on the up.
That 'winners of qualifiers' negative stat should come under pressure as (a) more of them should turn up as the Pertemps is now a ‘win-and-you’re in’ race and (b) since two years ago only the first four can qualify from a qualifying race (reduced from six and having previously been eight) so no more fifth-and-sixth-placed finishers squeaking in. Actually, they didn’t have a good record in the Final anyway as it was horses that finished second, third and fourth in qualifiers that had been winning the vast majority of finals.
Until winners of qualifiers start winning the Final though, I will continue to look elsewhere so won’t be siding with Will The Wise (won the last qualifier at Naas in such gruelling ground they couldn’t finish the card so can he recover in time?), Catch Him Derry (wants it soft according to Dan Skelton) or Henri The Second (same reason). Other winners of qualifiers are Harbour Lake, Super Survivor, One Big Bang and J’Ai Froid.
Gordon Elliott has a fabulous record in the Final but both of his qualifiers, Patter Merchant and Lucky Lyreen, also ran in those atrocious conditions at Naas just 18 days ago.
Karl Des Tourelles was second in the Punchestown qualifier in November but only two five-year-olds have won since the race was first run in 1974.
D ART D ART’s second in the Carlisle qualifier catches the eye as he went from held up to leading at the last and may well have won but for edging left on the run-in; back in third was Gwennie May Boy who has franked the form since when comfortably winning the Rendlesham. I like a hold-up horse for the Pertemps and prior to that he came from the rear again to finish an eye-catching third of 23 at Navan over 2m6f having previously won over 2m4f so the gradual steps up in trip are also proving beneficial to him.
Trained by Tommy Cooper, no stranger to Festival success having won the Champion Bumper with Total Enjoyment, looking at the race fresh I’ll take an each-way chance at the general 11/1 to six places that D Art D Art can be his second Cheltenham winner some 21 years later.
Onto the Brits and the Hendo pair of Doddiethegreat and Shanagh Bob have claims. I sensed at the media day I attended at Seven Barrows that he was quite sweet on Doddiethegreat running well having outrun big odds to qualify recently at Haydock; first-time cheekpieces are applied. They thought they had already qualified Shanagh Bob until a rule change was tweaked so had to get him out once more than they wanted to.
Pertemps Final Recent Winners
Pertemps Final Pace Map
There's no shortage of runners on this card, but not a huge amount of signed on trailblazers here. Could be run at only an even gallop.
Pertemps Final Selection
Suggestion: Try D Art D Art each way at around 11/1 with all the extra places.
A race much maligned but one I personally love, and which has a habit of throwing up tremendous finishes. Who can forget Bryony's brilliantly bonkers post-race debrief after the wonderful Frodon took her all the way from the front in 2019?
This year's field has a ton of class - well, maybe back class - and most of them are in the right race for all that pundits aplenty will bleat that they should have gone short (Champion Chase) or long (Gold Cup). The fact is there's a vast tract of land between two miles and more than three and a quarter, and this is an eminently sensible test for intermediate stayers. That's my counter argument at least.
The favourite this year, and short, is Fact To File. A three time Grade 1 winner, twice as a novice and then first time up this season in the 2m4f John Durkan, he was widely expected to serve it up to Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup. But having been beaten by that one twice on quicker ground over three miles since, he's swerving a third beating in the Blue Riband in favour of theoretically easier pickings. He's not far off even money for this and at such a skinny quote one has to find a reason to oppose. Without looking too hard, I've unearthed two.
First, all his winning form is on soft ground and he was beaten the last twice on good to yielding and yielding; and second, isn't this trip a bit on the short side if it's not deep ground? In truth, I don't know, and it will shock literally nobody if he wins, even wins well. But those questions are enough to look for a bit of potential value elsewhere.
French raider Il Est Francais heads here from his choice of the three Championship chases, and I feel that's probably right after he was gunned down late by Banbridge in the King George at Christmas. Most of his French form is very smart, as are his two Kempton spins (he blitzed his field in the Kauto Star 15 months ago), but he too is a short price and has thrown a couple of outright clunkers in his last four races. Candidly, he has the profile of a 'bleeder': one who, under the pressure of a race can burst a blood vessel.
Il Est Francais is likely to try to make all, tactics adopted successfully by not just the aforementioned Frodon but also Allaho twice and, a little further back, Uxizandre and Cue Card. But he should expect contention for the lead, from one or more of Heart Wood, Jungle Boogie and Hang In There. If he does get an 'easy', he's a danger no doubt.
Last year's winner, Protektorat, returns to defend his crown and he comes here off a pretty good season so far including a win in a valuable conditions race at Windsor's Winter Millions fixture in late January. My feeling is that he might just prefer a softer surface; but if he handles the expected quicker turf he's an obvious player again albeit that no horse older than nine has won this since Albertas Run doubled up in 2011.
The 2023 winner, Envoi Allen, also tries again. He was second to Protektorat last year as a ten-year-old and, well into the veteran stage now, looks an unlikely - if hugely popular - winner to my eye.
Jungle Boogie is also 11, as is Hang In There. Neither has achieved as much as age mate Envoi Allen, though JB has been lightly raced, and as such they cannot be seriously fancied.
At the other end of the age spectrum, Djelo may have more to offer than his already progressive profile. Last seen winning the G2 Denman Chase over 2m7f, the worry is that, like Fact To File, he maybe needs further and/or softer. Unlike FTF, Djelo is an each way price. His form ties in with Protektorat, but he's two and a half times that one's price as well.
Master Chewy is a two miler stepping up in trip. A good winner of the Game Spirit (G2) at Newbury last time, he might have been better off going to the Queen Mother, his two races at this distance yielding a brace of eighth placed finishes, granted over hurdles.
Another young buck, Heart Wood, rounds out the nine horse field. A Listed Hurdle winner in France before transferring to Henry de Bromhead, he went straight over fences in Ireland winning at the fourth time of asking in a valuable Leopardstown handicap before a good third in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree. This season, he bashed Corbetts Cross first time out (form not to take literally), was a neck second to the decent Croke Park in the Drinmore Novices' Chase before losing his novice status and running a creditable fourth to Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas. Henry can be expected to have improved him in the interim and I like his quietly ascendant profile, form on all surfaces, and proven ability at this distance. He's got a little bit to find on ratings but, as the joint youngest in the field, he's more entitled than most to do so.
Ryanair Chase Recent Winners
Ryanair Chase Pace Map
The French raider is very likely to take them along and he probably doesn't want too much rope. Unless you've backed him, of course.
Ryanair Chase Selection
A race in which Fact To File makes the price for anything else you might like. Of course, he might just go and win but the race doesn't look a perfect profile fit for his skillset and so an each way alternative is sought. Il Est Francais is not an each way price and is a bit of a binary sort these days in any case. The two I like in that win and place context are Djelo and Heart Wood. The former has a better level of proven ability but might want a bit further/softer, the latter has race conditions in his favour but needs to improve - I think he maybe can.
Suggestion: Back one or both of 16/1 Heart Wood and/or 12/1 Djelo, each way a pleasure.
Matt's Tix Pix: A couple on A including Fact To File, and some B's including unnamed favourite. I want to get FTF beat but not sure I can get him off the ticket!
Teahupoo is the market leader again for the Stayers’ having won last year and, as then, he arrives after just one prep run in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December. He was beaten by Lossiemouth this time although Gordon Elliott was more than happy with that run and has set him aside since. He looks at his best when the mud is flying, with form figures on soft or heavy reading 111111111 as opposed to 21963412 on good or good to soft ground. Freshness is also clearly important, with his record off a break of 50+ days reading 111111112, and off shorter breaks 119634.
This year, the freshness box is ticked but Teahupoo will need more rain to get his desired ground, seemingly unlikely as I pen these words. It is also intriguing that Elliott does not rely on Teahupoo alone, but also has the switched Pertemps fancy The Wallpark in this race. That gelding ran well in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot but needs to improve again to win at the top level.
Home By The Lee is the main danger on form, having beaten Bob Olinger in both the Lismullen Hurdle and the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, and he’s reported to be a different horse this season by connections. He would indeed need to do something different to win this race at the fourth attempt having been no closer than third previously. That is possible, but to be honest, I don’t think his form this season is any better than it was 12 months ago for all he may be transformed on the home gallops.
Bob Olinger is held on this season’s form and looks a weak finisher at this trip, but it should be pointed out that he has a great Cheltenham record, winning the Baring Bingham and the Turners (Golden Miller) in March before landing last year’s Relkeel. That record flatters him a touch as he would have been beaten readily by Galopin des Champs on the second occasion but for that horse tumbling at the last fence. The anticipated ground will help Bob Olinger in terms of seeing the race out, but he tends to look awkward under pressure these days and isn’t convincing enough to draw me in.
Third to Home By The Lee at Leopardstown was the relative novice Rocky’s Pride, who improved on that when winning the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran next time. Declan Queally’s charge would be a big Stayers' stat buster as he bids to become the first five-year-old to win this contest in the modern era (*dons anorak* The Spa Hurdle, which was the equivalent contest at the post-war Cheltenham, was won by five-year-old Whim in 1951, but the race that year took place in late April, and the weights ranged from 11-12 to 10-4, suggesting that comparisons are pointless).
If there is a genuine staying star of the future in the field, it’s him, and the youngster won the Galmoy while still looking a work in progress. Realistically, he probably needs another year to reach maturity as a stayer, but I think there is a huge amount of talent there and I don’t want to pass him over without mention.
LUCKY PLACE isn’t a certain stayer, but last year’s Coral Cup fourth has improved again this term, winning the Ascot Hurdle and the Relkeel, and while it’s probably a little ingenuous to point out that he had the current Champion Hurdle winner behind on both those occasions, it does bear mentioning that he was giving weight to subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Gowel Road on the latter occasion. He needed every yard in the Relkeel and looks to my eye like he will stay three miles - on good ground at least - and he’s the percentage call, with a win bet making more appeal than backing him each-way given that slight query about the trip
Stayers' Hurdle Recent Winners
Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map
Gowel Road is the probable pace maker and he does love it at Cheltenham. Not many others tend to go forward but perhaps Home By The Less will be thereabouts.
It should be noted that it was a Class 1 Grade 3 contest from 2004 to 2022 but since 2023 it has become just a Class 1 race.
This is not the strongest trends race of the week but here are the main stats based on the past 25 years. In terms of the betting market, winners have been well spread across different prices. Four of the last six have been 9/1 or less, but overall, only seven out of the 25 winners were single figure prices. Nine winners were 20/1 or bigger with a further 25 placed so you cannot rule out many runners based on price.
In terms of weight carried there were no wins for the two highest weighted runners but overall there has been an even distribution of winners and placed runners across the weights. Likewise, when looking at the age of the horses there is no clear pattern. Horses aged 9 or older have been competitive and arguably have offered better long-term value than their younger counterparts. Having said that, beware of horses that have raced a lot over fences: those with 17 or more career starts over fences prior to their Plate spin have won just once from 116 runners.
Venetia Williams has had three winners and six placed from 31 but no win since 2013 (she did saddle the second in 2016 at 33/1). She runs Gemirande and an interesting outsider in Demnat this year. Irish runners have won five of the last nine renewals and are definitely targeting this race more than in the early 2000s.
Last time out winners have done well, claiming ten of the 25 renewals in my trends sample from 99 runners with 28% placing. 22 of the last 25 finished in the first seven last time out. Horses that won at least once in their last three starts have been three times more likely to win and twice as likely to place as horses who have drawn a blank in those three runs.
The first two horses to discuss are two that don’t stand out from a trends perspective. Ginnys Destiny did very little wrong last season including three wins and a second at Cheltenham. This season he has disappointed three times when prominent in the betting on all three occasions. What those runs have done is lower his handicap mark to 149, 6lb below where it was at the start of the season. Paul Nicholls has been talking him up and if he's anywhere near his best he comes into the equation.
The Companysergeant is interesting for two reasons. Firstly, he has recently moved to the Gavin Cromwell yard and in his only race for them finished a close up third over hurdles. After three decent runs in the summer of 2024 his form that autumn was poor, which may have prompted the stable switch. Secondly, I keep beeing drawn back to his six-length fourth to Spillane’s Tower in the Grade 1 WillowWarm Gold Cup at the end of March last year. If he can match that form he has a very solid chance.
Jagwar is the clear favourite at the time of writing. He has come here rather than the Jack Richards Novices’ handicap earlier on the card so connections clearly think he can beat more seasoned rivals. He was a winner at Cheltenham last time in what looked a hot handicap so that is a positive trends wise. Although he has gone up 7lb he's clearly still improving. It's only his price that tempers enthusiasm.
An Peann Dearg comes here on a hat-trick and was very impressive last time at Leopardstown. However, he's gone up 12lb for that effort. Like Jagwar he had an entry in the Jack Richards but takes his chance here. Despite the rise in the weights he could still be thereabouts.
Personal Ambition would have won two starts back at Ascot in a Grade 2 chase but for a terrible mistake at the last. As a hurdler, he claimed some big scalps last year including Jango Baie. If you can forgive his latest run he looks a decent price and trainer Ben Pauling, who won the race last year, definitely knows how to train a handicap chaser. Since 2022 Pauling has a strike rate in handicap chases of close to 22% returning 19p in the £ to SP (33p to BSP). Personal Ambition also should be close to the pace which I think is important here based on the overall stats for this course and distance as well as the recent history of this race.
Festival Plate Recent Winners
Festival Plate Pace Map
Yet another big field and another with no out and out speed merchants. Any of Ginny's, Gemirande, Seddon and Personal Ambition might play 'catch me'.
Festival Plate Selection
I backed the The Companysergeant ante post at much bigger odds and the price is a little too tight now for me. I am going for two against the field at bigger odds from either side of the pond.
Suggestion: Back Personal Ambition each way at 20/1 and An Peann Dearg each way at 16/1 (5 places)
5.20 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)
Previewed by David Massey.
I do love the Kim Muir. The purists will scoff, but you could put seven Kim Muir’s on on the Thursday and I’d be happy as a sandboy. Honest.
And this year I’m fairly confident I’ve got the winner from a choice of two. (Famous last words.)
The Irish, as ever, have a strong hand in this, and Midnight Our Fred has to be on any shortlist you care to draw up for this.
He was entered up in the marathon on Day One, but once confirmations meant it looked very much like he’d get a run in this, there was only ever one way he’d go.
He isn’t a clever selection by any means, but look how many boxes he ticks. Firstly, Cheltenham form: three runs at the track resulting in three second places, including to Mole Court in an amatuers event back here in 2023, narrowly failing to peg back the (then) improving winner on the run-in to the tune of half a length. Off the back of that he ran another solid race at the December meeting and came back again at the April two-dayer to run second to Hymac over 3m4f, the pair nicely clear of anything else. Those three efforts ranged on ground from good to soft, so whatever the elements may throw at him before Thursday, he should handle with ease.
And the good form doesn’t stop there, either; this season, an easy 14-length win at Gowran Park on his seasonal debut was followed up by an excellent second in the big-field Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. See what I mean about him ticking every box? Cheltenham form, big-field form, stays well, goes well for an amateur? What’s not to like, good readers of Geegeez?
I’ll back him up with another of the Irish contingent in Mint Boy, who has definitely been laid out for this after just the four chase starts. Useful over hurdles, he made a solid start to his chasing career when third to Search For Glory and Sa Majeste at Gowran Park, and two quick runs in December (over shorter trips) looked nothing more than a means to an end in getting him a mark. A better effort at Punchestown last month when third to High Class Hero should have teed him up nicely for this, and he remains totally unexposed over fences. This stamina test seems sure to suit, and I can see him taking a big step forward form-wise now.
Finding something among the British contingent that might be able to throw down a challenge isn’t easy. I have a soft spot for Dom Of Mary and put him up for this last year; a couple of mistakes on the way around hardly helped his cause, but he could get no nearer than eighth, and unless there’s an absolute deluge on Wednesday it might well be more of the same.
I suppose the capable but utterly inconsistent Weveallbeencaught is of some interest in new headgear. He looked a happier horse when returned to Nigel Twiston-Davies at Doncaster in January, winning an easy nine lengths, but couldn’t repeat that effort when fifth in the Grimthorpe last time out. On goes some stronger headgear, with the visor replacing cheekpieces, and a tongue tie is also employed, as it was in the Ultima last year (when sixth). Toby McCain-Mitchell is one of the better British riders, in my opinion, and if he’s on a going day, he could give his pilot a decent spin.
Kim Muir Recent Winners
Kim Muir Pace Map
Midnight Our Fred is most likely to set the tempo, though there is a clutch who could challenge early. Should be run at a decent gallop.
Kim Muir Selection
Suggestion: Split stakes between 9/1 Midnight Our Fred and 12/1 Mint Boy.
*
And that's us three-quarters of the way home. Hopefully you've had a couple of good draws already; if not, fear not for Gold Cup day will follow. But let's enjoy Thursday's sport first!
Good luck
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/275616468-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-12 12:28:392025-03-12 18:22:20Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips
Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
Day Two. Wednesday. The second half of the first half - or the second quarter if you prefer - and a day when, seemingly, it has rained since time immemorial. After a full soaking in the past two years, it's looking dry if a little cool for Day 2 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. There's much to go at so let's crack on - slightly earlier start, don't forget. Over to our team of shrewdies (and me) for their thoughts. Vamanos!
1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
Previewed by Rory Delargy.
The Turners - or to save confusion the Baring Bingham - Novices’ Hurdle kicks off Tuesday’s card and looks a fairly straightforward race to analyse from a race shape perspective. I’d imagine one of the Mullins pair Kaid d’Authie and Kappa Jye Pyke will go forward, if not both, and that should ensure that regular front-runner Sixmilebridge doesn’t get an easy lead. Sixmilebridge might be a player if he can get loose in front, having employed those tactics to beat a slightly below-par Potters Charm in the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle here on Trials Day.
That wasn’t strictly over course and distance as it took place on the New Course and, while the winner did it well, it’s hard to take a high view of the form unless assuming Potters Charm ran right up to his best, which I don’t think he did, albeit not falling that far short of his previous standard. Given that was Trials Day, it’s interesting to see how winners of that race have got on in the Baring Bingham over the years. Much has been made of the poor record of Challow winners in the race, but you need to go back to Monsignor to find the last horse to win the Classic and the Baring Bingham in the same season. That’s disappointing given the similarity in track and trip, and the horses who have gone on to success at Cheltenham after winning in January were the stayers Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross, underlining how the New Course tests stamina above tactical speed.
Potters Charm is better judged on his track and trip win in November and his Grade 1 win in the Formby at Aintree in December. Those victories catapulted him to the head of the market for this race, but they do not look as good now as they did at the time, and his defeat of Miami Magic at Aintree compares poorly with Tripoli Flyer’s win over the same horse at Kempton last time. Tripoli Flyer might be a little underrated with neither Musselburgh nor Kempton striking as the ideal track for a horse with plenty of late boot, but the concern with him is that he was reported to have broken a blood vessel despite winning the Dovecote, and that is a no-no here.
The New Lion is the best of the British and just shades favouritism after winning the Challow at Newbury in December. He was visually impressive, enough for J P McManus to open his chequebook, but the form of the Challow is pretty hollow. The runner-up Wendigo is a progressive stayer, but the Newbury race tested speed over stamina for a change, and Wendigo was outpaced before running on late for second. The horses that The New Lion actually bested at Newbury looked promising at the time, but neither Regents Stroll nor Bill Joyce have fulfilled early promise over hurdles and, on paper, the form is not at all strong for a Grade 1 hurdle. I get the impression that The New Lion might have had plenty more in hand, but it’s hard to put a figure on that, and my feeling is that he’s been overrated by the handicappers, public and private.
Dan Skelton knows more about this gelding’s latent ability and seems full of confidence, which makes me wary of taking him on, but his price assumes he is every bit as good as he looked at Newbury and then some, and I couldn’t make him anywhere near as short as the market does.
Final Demand was all the rage after beating Wingmen easily over 2¾m at the DRF but there was talk of him switching to the Albert Bartlett, and he drifted as a result. That came to nothing, and he should have regained favouritism when declared for this, but the doubts seem to have persisted. This race has gone to Champion Hurdle prospects in the past (Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Faugheen) and if there is a Champion Hurdler in this field then it isn't Final Demand, who looks as if he would gallop all day. I suspect this is why he’s deemed opposable, as he might be vulnerable in a tactical race, and that should be taken on board. On the other hand, the race has also been won by plenty of stayers down the years and if Paul Townend wants to set an end-to-end gallop, then Final Demand looks a willing partner. I think he’s a much better option than The New Lion and he deserves to be favourite.
Given what I’ve said above, I would not put anyone off Final Demand if getting 2/1 or bigger, but in acknowledging that his 12-length defeat of Wingmen at Leopardstown is the best form in the race, I must also point out that THE YELLOW CLAY beat Wingmen by 11 lengths and Jasmin de Vaux by 22 when winning the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas at – well, you know where it’s at – in January. Given Wingmen and Jasmin de Vaux finished third and fourth at Naas and then finished second and fourth at Leopardstown, it could be argued that they are excellent yardsticks for the novice form, and The Yellow Clay has a very similar chance to Final Demand on a line through the pair of them.
Much has been made of the fact that The Lawlor’s was run on heavy ground as if that was a big advantage to The Yellow Clay, but I thought he hated the ground (I think they all hated the ground, in truth) and that his inherent class saw him home. He certainly doesn’t need heavy, running below form in the Champion Bumper last year, albeit with credit, before turning the tables on Romeo Coolio at Punchestown in the Grade 1 bumper there, where he also had William Munny and Jasmin de Vaux behind. His first two hurdles wins also came on yielding ground, and he beat Fleur In The Park much more easily in the Monksfield than he did in the Navan Novice Hurdle on softer ground in December. Gordon Elliott seemed to me to have a twinkle in his eye when he says, “I’m not sure he’s as slow as people think” and he looks the standout value in the contest.
Turners Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Turners Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Lots of paper pace, and that man Mullins has the cards in terms of dictating the tempo. Should be truly run.
Turners Novices' Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Back The Yellow Clay each-way at 13/2.
This race has had an average field size of 11 runners but, as with last year when six went to post, we have a shorter field of just seven here. I was hoping for the 'dead eight' which as a punter clearly gives more options. Let's first look at past trends in this race going back 25 years.
Irish bred runners have won 19 of the 25 races from 172 runners which equates to 11% and have had just under 30% hit the frame; other countries combined (GB/FR etc) are 6 wins from 103 (5.8%) with 21% placed.
Age wise, 7yos have dominated with 20 wins from the last 25. Yes, they have had more than half of the total runners, 52% to be precise, but from that 52% they have won 80% of the races (31.3% placed). 6yos have just one win from 48 but have a decent placed record and they have just one qualifier this year in Quai De Bourbon. 8yos are three from 53 (5.7%) but with only 17% hitting the frame.
Looking at past market factors, between 1999 and 2014 there were seven double figure priced winners, but none since. There have been nine winning favourites (six in last 10 years) and 10 of the last 11 renewals have gone to one of the front three in the market.
Previous winning course form has been a plus with past Cheltenham winners 1.8 times more likely to win than those that have not. Previous Festival winners have done very well from a small band of runners. Of the 20 prior Cheltenham Festival winners five won (25%) and 12 in total won or placed (60%). Backing all 20 would have yielded a 61% ROI to BSP.
23 of the 25 winners won or came second LTO. Horses that finished third or worse are just two from 87 (2.3%).
All 25 winners raced between three and 11 weeks previously. Fifty horses have either run with a shorter or longer break than that and all of them lost, with only 10% of them managing a place.
Willie Mullins has saddled the winner five times, and he has the top two in the betting (and four of the seven runners in total). The favourite, Ballyburn, ticks many of the trends boxes. He won the Turners Novices’ hurdle at an absolute canter at the Festival last year; he won last time out; and he is eight from ten in his career, and two from three over fences. His loss over fences came at Kempton in December when beaten a speedier Sir Gino over two miles. This race is at three miles which is uncharted territory for him, but with the ground as it is, the consensus is he has every chance of staying. He is well clear on Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed and he looks a solid favourite, albeit at a short price.
Second favourite Dancing City has been ultra consistent over both hurdles and fences. From a trends perspective, however, he has a few negatives to overcome. He is an 8yo, is French bred, and has yet to win at Cheltenham. That said, and to be fair, he has only raced here once when third in last year’s Albert Bartlett. A positive is that we know he gets the trip.
Third in the market is Better Days Ahead, an interesting contender from the Gordon Elliott yard. He won at the festival last year in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (positive trend) and is two from three this year with his sole defeat being by a head two starts back at Leopardstown. He has only raced in very small fields over fences, and he will get that again here. A winner at the distance, there are no stamina concerns.
Gorgeous Tom has a few trends to overcome including finishing only fourth last time in the Grade 1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse (2m4f), but he was rattling home that day and would have won in a few more strides. He has to prove himself over the extra distance and, if he does, he could be seriously overpriced around 12/1. If there had been eight runners, he would have been my each way pick along with my win selection below.
Brown Advisory Chase Recent Winners
Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map
Ballyburn may make his own running but will perhaps more likely sit behind a stablemate (Lecky or Quai).
Brown Advisory Chase Selection
Ballyburn is a short price and generally I’m not a short odds player. However, I think he is a 10/11 maybe even 5/6 chance, and he is still odds against in a few places which I think represents value.
Suggestion: Back Ballyburn at odds against.
Matt's Tix Pix: Ballyburn on A, and a couple of alternates on B
The Coral Cup is one of my favourite races of the week to tackle, as there are some trends that can help us try and find the winner, but equally you’ve a chance of hitting something at a big ol’ price. Four of the last seven winners have gone off 20/1 or bigger, with 33/1 Heaven Help Us and 50/1 Commander Of Fleet among them, so this is a race that can throw up proper shocks.
It used to be the case that backing those towards the top end of the handicap lost money on a regular basis, but since the handicaps became more compressed that is no longer the case. The first five home last year all carried 11st or more, and the angle of a class dropper, despite having to carry a big weight, is one that should not be overlooked.
Ballyadam is a perfect case in point. He’s a Festival regular, having finished fifth in the 2023 County Hurdle (under 11-7) and then second to the, ahem, rejuvenated Langer Dan in this under the welter burden of twelve stone last year. He often mixes it at levels with the best of them, but can clearly operate when asked to give weight away to inferior horses despite age catching up with him. He’s lightly raced for a ten-year-old, and looks sure to give another good account of himself. A drop of rain Wednesday morning (some is forecast) would help his cause, too.
Just underneath Ballyadam on the racecard is Eagle Fang, and I’ve long thought he could be the type to go well in a race such as this. He was one of the picks of the paddock for the Fred Winter last year but blew out, Philip Enright going round the inside on heavy ground probably not helping his cause. I made him one to follow all the same and it didn’t take long for that faith to be repaid, when he came good at a big price at Punchestown in May.
He lost nothing in defeat to Home By The Lee in Grade 2 company at Navan in November and, off the back of that, connections tried their luck in the Grade 1 Long Walk at Ascot. Having looked like he might get involved for the places at one point his stamina rather gave way, and the combination of that and Grade 1 company ultimately proved too much. Nevertheless, he was only beaten nine lengths and on the figures had taken another step forward. It’s worth bearing in mind Oakley Brown was unable to claim his 5lb allowance there, which he will be able to do here, and having had a bit of a break since Ascot is no bad thing either. The worry is that a mark of 147 looks a touch too high so, for all I think he’ll run well, others make a shade more appeal.
At the front end of the market you simply cannot ignore Impose Toi, given Nicky Henderson’s record in the race (four winners) and owner JP McManus, notwithstanding that he throws plenty of darts at this, has had the winner three times and numerous others placed in the race. Impose Toi dotted up here (over two miles) a couple of seasons ago and at that stage all sorts of fancy entries were bandied about. He ran to a very similar level in two subsequent starts in hot handicaps. We’ve only seen him the once this year, when winning with something to spare over 2m4½f at Newbury, and this strong-travelling sort looks just the type to go well here. Cheekpieces go on, which I think is neither here nor there (it isn’t the negative it used to be perceived as in this race) and he has to go well, I feel.
And where is the daft each-way fiver at a silly price going? Look no further than Lossiemouth (not that one, the other one), a former Grade 2 winner for Tom Lacey who has come back from a long absence this season to run perfectly well for Polly Gundry in three competitive handicap hurdles, all around three miles. Now, I’m not totally convinced he stays that far, and this drop back in trip could be just what the doctor ordered. He shapes as if he retains most of his ability and a mark of 133 is fair and reflects where we are with him at present. He’ll be ignored in the market, but it would be no surprise to me if he hit the frame here.
Coral Cup Recent Winners
Coral Cup Pace Map
Loads of pace, headed by Maxxum and 'the other' Lossiemouth. Cards played late may be the answer tactically.
Coral Cup Selection
Impose Toi looks like he ought to go close and, at monster prices, 'the other' Lossiemouthcould give a run for each way money. Bag the extra places where you can.
Suggestion: Back Impose Toi to win at 9/1, and/or Lossiemouth each way at 40/1 or bigger.
3.20 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Cross Country reverts to being a handicap after eight renewals as a level-weights race, albeit it is now a 20lb limited handicap rather than the full 26lb.
The key to betting on the Cross Country is understanding the nature of the course. At Punchestown and Pardubice the cross-country tracks pre-date the conventional tracks but at Cheltenham it had to be shoehorned into the middle of the existing conventional courses in the 1990s.
The consequence is that the Cheltenham cross-country course is extremely tight and sharp. There are very few opportunities to gallop until the business end. As such, the skillset needed is to be able to negotiate the variety of obstacles, keeping on an even keel and then an ability to quicken when the sprint starts.
In consequence, they go slowly for much of the race and so it’s much easier for the classy horses to give the weight away. Three of the 11 renewals as a 26lb handicap were won by the top-weight – and that was when the race was contested by lower quality horses than it is today.
As a level-weights race it was dominated in recent years by ex-Grade 1 horses: if they took to the idiosyncratic test they had a huge advantage, outclassing the handicappers they were up against.
In the last five renewals if you’d applied a simple 1lb for 1 length approach, the winner would have won even if it had been a 20lb handicap. Given that it’s easier to give the weight away going so slowly, I think the top-weights are at an even bigger advantage than that ‘standard’ method suggests.
The question all season was who was going to realise that and continue to target their ex-Grade 1 horses at the race - and who was going to think that because it was a handicap they wouldn’t win and so wouldn’t run their ex-Grade 1 horses.
Gordon Elliott seems to have worked this out and, ground permitting, was always aiming Galvin at the race. He has won six of the last seven renewals and, whilst the fact it’s a handicap makes it harder for him, he is still the trainer to focus on. Gordon is 6/23 +3pt (15% ROI) so far. 13 of those 23 runners finished in the first three.
Even when it was a 26lb handicap the front of the market dominated – 8 of the 11 renewals were won by one of the first three in the market. Seven of the eight level-weights renewals did, too, and with much classier types in this than the old 2005-2015 handicap I’m expecting the front of the market to continue to dominate.
The ground was always going to be important. The Cross Country course doesn’t have the artificial drainage that the conventional tracks have but equally it’s harder to water. Cheltenham now can water it but there is only one race on it and they tend to do so sparingly to avoid fast ground rather watering for slow ground. As a result, it tends to ride more naturally. The weather gods have favoured Galvin with the ground due to be predominantly good to soft.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Recent Winners
*Handicap up to 2015, conditions race 2016-2024, reverted to a handicap in 2025. Abandoned in 2024.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map
This will be a jog then sprint affair, so the pace map is very much for information purposes only.
The Champion Chase is the pre-eminent speed test for top class chasers but, this year, it's a race shorn of many of its likelier lads, due to injury, poor form or that pesky Ryanair Chase. One bona fide star that will get the green (and gold) light is Jonbon, whose eleventh hour withdrawal twelve months ago robbed the race - and racing fans - of its main protagonist.
In his absence, Henry de Bromhead swooped to conquer with 17/2 shot Captain Guinness. The Captain defends his crown but has been in far less authoritative form this time around. Still, a glance at the Recent Winners section below attests to the folly of discounting a de Bromhead runner in the QMCC: he also won the race in 2021, 2017 and 2011. Guinness may be on many revellers' minds on Wednesday afternoon, but it's far more likely they're pondering another pint of the black stuff than a punt on a horse whose best run of three this term was a 26 length pasting by Solness.
Henry also runs Quilixios, a slightly bigger price even than Captain Guinness. A confirmed front runner, the former Triumph Hurdle winner is unlikely to have it all his way on the sharp end with, most notably, Solness expected to vie for early primacy. But his run behind Jonbon at Sandown in December's Tingle Creek gives him only a large hill, rather than a mountain, to climb to beat the fav.
We really ought to discuss Jonbon. Trained by Nicky Henderson, who saddled the Champion Chase winner in 1992, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2018 and 2019, a Jonbon victory would make him the outright winningmost trainer in the history of the race; and his lad is a shade of odds on to do it.
On any of a number of runs from this season and last, he is the best horse in the race. His jumping is usually assured, his run style is versatile and he has no ground allergies. So why isn't he shorter in the market? Well, come the hour and he might be; but, to this point, there have been murmurings of a Cheltenham issue as well as the fact that the Champion Chase has been a bridge too far for a plethora of shorties in recent times.
El Fabiolo, at 2/9, was the latest strong favourite to succumb last year, and was preceded by Shishkin (5/6) in 2022, Chacun Pour Soi (8/13) in 2021, Defi Du Seuil (2/5) in 2020, Douvan (2/9) in 2017, Un De Sceaux (4/6) in 2016, Sizing Europe (4/5) in 2012, Master Minded (4/5) in 2010, Well Chief (Evs) in 2007, Moscow Flyer (5/6) in 2004 and Flagship Uberalles (11/10) in 2000. Holy hotpots!
It should be said that 6/5 Energumene, 4/11 and Evs Altior, 1/4 Sprinter Sacre and 4/11 Master Minded all got it done in the same time window and it's well worth noting that three of that quintet were trained by Henderson. Only Shishkin from the 'naughty' list was sent from Seven Barrows.
Jonbon is a bit of a machine. He's won 17 of his 20 races, and been second on the other three occasions. Perhaps he's another to bet with the 'money back as free bet if second' concession with the tote. The three defeats were by a superlative Constitution Hill in an awe-inspiring Supreme in 2022; a rampant El Fabiolo (before that one lost the plot) in the Arkle of 2023; and - the only downright disappointment - in the re-routed Clarence House Chase last year (Ascot was unraceable so the race was staged at Cheltenham - Jonbon was beaten a neck at 1/4).
After a quiet but winning seasonal debut this campaign, the green and gold silks have sauntered to success twice more - both at Grade 1 level - and he just looks a man amongst veterans and juniors.
Energumene commands great respect as a two-time winner of the race, in 2022 and 2023 aged 8 and 9; but he missed the gig last year and is 11 now. True, that didn't stop Moscow Flyer rolling back the years when claiming his second Champion Chase in 2005 but the Flyer entered as the best horse in the race and was returned 6/4 favourite. Energumene is no longer the best in the field. Still, he's an 11-time winner from 14 starts and may have degenerated insufficiently to miss the podium.
A few of the Irish contenders have incestuous form lines. Solness came out on top, ahead of Marine Nationale, Quilixios and Captain Guinness in the Dublin Chase at DRF: having led from early in the race, he established a big advantage which was all but erased by MN approaching the last. But the runner up found less than anticipated while the winner found more than might have been expected. They were clear of the remainder. I do have a suspicion that Quilixios may have been under-cooked and also may have raced on the worst of the ground up the inner, where his rivals pretty much all took the high road close to the outer rail.
Prior to February's Dublin Chase, Solness had also beaten Marine Nationale by a similar margin in the Leopardstown Grade 1 at Christmas. There, Found A Fifty ran no sort of race and was pulled up. However, the last named was reported by the vet to have a dirty nose post-race rendering his effort a 'chuck out'. Earlier in the season, Found A Fifty had beaten Solness in the G2 Fortria Chase and had won over two and a half miles a fortnight prior in another Grade 2, that one on good ground.
Going back a little further, Gordon Elliott's charge got closest to a fully on song Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle at Cheltenham a year ago; so he handles quicker ground, has performed well at the Festival, and has two wins prior to a run that can be discounted from his three 2024/5 spins. He may be over-priced.
Beyond Jonbon, British hopes rest with Libberty Hunter. He was second in the G2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last month and has good Cheltenham handicap form on top of the ground. But this is a much bigger ask than handicaps for all that he was third in the Grade 1 Maghull at Aintree last spring.
Champion Chase Recent Winners
Champion Chase Pace Map
Quilixios and Solness, probably the latter, will go forward. Jonbon should sit just off that tempo with the rest expected to be more patiently ridden.
Champion Chase Selection
There is a weighty body of men (and women) who sailed to their wagering end due to the siren calls of short priced Champion Chase jollies, but some people never learn. Jonbon is clear of his field on any critical analysis of the form book and he looks a square enough price at close to even money as I write. That's obviously not a sexy price so each way alternatives are worth considering. I'm apprehensive of the Solness/Marine Nationale collateral, but appreciate I could have that wrong. Still, I don't want to bet something at 5/1 or so against what I think is a very solid favourite. Far better to have a tiny swing, either e/w or without the favourite, on either or both of Found A Fifty and/or Quilixios. Not much damage done if we miss at those sorts of prices.
Suggestion: Back Jonbon with the tote's 'money back as a free bet if second', and consider Found A Fifty or Quilixios in the 'without' and each way markets.
4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. A key feature of the Grand Annual is that it is a kinder race for prominent racers, whereas the stiffer New Course was a benefit for hold-up horses. This is evident in the 'Recent Winners' section below where, prior to 2014, hold up horses were the de facto play; but since then, it's been the front half of the field (and a few midfielders) which has held sway. Le Prezien's 2018 score from off the pace is a helpful reminder that nothing is assured when shortlisting, but the balance of favour has very much been to those with more behind than in front through the early fractions.
A glance at the 'Form' column below shows that recent winning form is not a prerequisite, and nor is a recent run. Ratings wise, most winners were between 136 and 147, give or take, and that's an area on which to focus.
Looking for those within the ratings band and who are generally ridden in the front half of the field, I'm left with Unexpected Party, Fringill Dike, The King of Prs, and Traprain Law.
Unexpected Party won the race by daylight last year and is only 6lb higher this time around. He represents the 'Dead-eye Dan' Skelton barn who have been so successful in Cheltenham Festival handicaps in recent years, and may go close again. Expect him to race more prominently than in recent outings: he was near the speed when galloping away from them twelve months ago.
Gavin Cromwell is another handler for whom the handicaps have been a rich source of joy, and he's represented by The King Of Prs (and also My Mate Mozzie and Midnight It Is). The King best fits my tenuous shortlist bill though form of 231 this season has done little to mask his level of ability. He ran in the race last year but couldn't go the early tempo and made mistakes before falling, all of which tempers enthusiasm considerable.
JP McManus likes to have a swing at this. As well as four winners in the past two decades, McManus has owned fully nine runners up (thanks to Paul Ferguson and his Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide for this cracking snippet). The green and gold livery will be singularly sported by So Scottish this season. Second to Stayers' Hurdle-bound The Wallpark in a Listed handicap hurdle on yielding ground at the Galway Festival last summer - two poorer efforts since - he's not run over fences since December 2023, when he fell in the December Gold Cup. He's obviously a strong stayer and connections, including trainer Emmet Mullins, are hugely respected; but this would be a fine training performance were he to win.
Since 2009 there have been nine Grand Annual winners returned 16/1 or bigger, including 66/1, 40/1 and 28/1 twice. In that spirit, I'm returning to my shortlist and Fringill Dike and Traprain Law. Fringill Dike is a good ground specialist, typically races prominently and comes here well rested; true, he may be overly well rested and we have to take fitness on trust. To that end, form off a 100+ day absence over obstacles reads 112 which helps keep the faith. He's won five of his nine chases and he's 66/1 - that makes him worth a very small each way guess.
Traprain Law hails from the Lucinda Russell yard that knows how to win staying handicap chases at the Festival. Whether she can repeat the dose over a 'sprint' trip is a different question, of course, but she may have a better chance than the market implies with this second season chaser. He's a perennial prominent racer and has sometimes appeared to be outpaced in the latter stages of his races; perhaps this expected much faster tempo will run the finish out of his rivals?
Since 2014, the last time out finishing position of Grand Annual winners, as a form string, reads 94P08212309. That may (or may not) be another nod to So Scottish, whose claims are obviously not obvious, if you see what I mean.
Grand Annual Recent Winners
Grand Annual Pace Map
Licketty split, no doubt. Expected to favour those in the first half to two-thirds of the field over the very late runners. Unless they go an absolute million. Which they might.
Grand Annual Selection
The 2025 Grand Annual is, as always, a very difficult puzzle to solve. In that spirit, I'll try one from the top and two massive Hail Mary's. So Scottish is as much about his connections as his recent form; but delving further back would make him attractively handicapped in his own right. If we're to have another 'skinner winner' it might be one of Traprain Lawor Fringill Dike, both of which seem well enough suited to the test with the important proviso that they might not be nearly good enough! They're worth 50p e/w to find out, though.
Suggestions: Try a small win bet on 10/1 So Scottish and even smaller each way bets on 25/1 Traprain Law and 66/1 Fringill Dike with all the extra places you can muster.
Willie Mullins had been quieter than usual on the bumper scene up until the Dublin Racing Festival since which he has fired in three rockets and inherited another, and has five runners in total, so he is short odds to add to his current haul of 13 wins in the race.
Significantly in a race restricted to 4-6yos, 11 of his successes were with 5yos (and he only got one of his two winning 6yos from Gordon Elliott a fortnight before Cheltenham) so as a 6yo that slightly puts me off Gameofinches, though Fact To File was the same age when second two years ago.
Patrick Mullins has chosen Copacabana instead so Paul Townend is on Gameofinches. A speed figures guru who I respect, Andy Holding, has Copacabana with the lowest time figure of the whole field so I’m struggling to be with him at the prices given that he is favourite, even if Ruby Walsh has been talking him up as the one that he likes of the Mullins runners for the last fortnight. He can win of course but it will be a very different tempo of race to the one that he won at Navan.
Relegate caused a surprise here eight years ago following up her win in the Grade 2 mares’ bumper at the DRF and BAMBINO FEVER is trying to do likewise.
Ratings are usually overlooked when discussing the Champion Bumper as punters seem to prefer the whispers but they shouldn’t be. With her mares’ allowance, although only the perceived third choice of Mullins’ quintet, she is joint-top rated on BHA figures. That’s interesting as eight of the last 22 winners were top rated by BHA (if including a mares’ allowance), including five of the last ten and most of them didn’t start favourite. We had two joint-top rated contenders in 2022 and they finished 1-2.
At the top of those ratings we have Kalypso’Chance (130) and Bambino Fever (130) ahead of Aqua Force (127) who has recently moved to Mullins so they have done very little with him to make a difference, Idaho Sun (126) as the best of the Brits for Harry Fry, Fortune De Mer (125), Gameofinches (124), Copacabana (123), He Can’t Dance (123), Sortudo (123) and Heads Up (123).
Jody Townend rode Bambino Fever at the DRF and keeps the ride. Patrick was never in line to ride as would struggle to do the weight so he didn’t reject her.
Gordon Elliott prepared Sir Gerhard before he was switched late on to Mullins and had the second and third last year to add to his two wins in the race and, with Windbeneathmywings ruled out for David Pipe last week, he provides the main market rival to Team Mullins in Kalypso’Chance who beat Heads Up at Navan in a bumper where Elliott has run some of what turned out to be his very best horses down the years. It niggles me though that after he won Elliott hinted he had a better one.
As highlighted earlier, the main home hope has to sit it out so that mantle is now transferred to No Drama This End according to the market: he beat a well-fancied Skelton horse at Warwick. Nicholls doesn’t mind having a shy at the Champion Bumper but the closest that he has got was Captain Teague who was third two years ago. The last time the Brits won was with Ballyandy nine years ago.
The Skelton team have been talking up Fortune De Mer who won at Cheltenham earlier this season and was then beaten under a penalty on a sharp track last time and they know the time of day with their bumper team so he could be best of the Brits.
In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.
Champion Bumper Recent Winners
Champion Bumper Pace Map
Pinch of salt pace map...
Champion Bumper selection
In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.
Suggestion: Back Bambino Fever each way
*
And that's a wrap on Day 2. My thanks again to the five judges who have kindly shared their thoughts. Remember, the value game is not about a winner a race but a profit at the end of the year - let's hope also at the end of this week!
Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Jonbon_Kingmaker_Warwick2023.png319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-10 14:47:362025-03-11 09:05:49Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
We're back! The 2025 Cheltenham Festival is here and, for those of us who have found patience for its arrival difficult, the great news is it starts ten minutes earlier! Yes, it's a 1.20pm kick off each day, moved from the traditional half-one slot, so don't tune in late...
After the success of recent big meeting previews, where the races have been divvied among a brains trust of racing judges, I'm joined by some estimable company for this year's Cheltenham Festival preview posts. They are:
Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.
David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.
Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.
Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.
Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.
They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?
Also, a quick reminder about our Tix competition where you can win £100 each day. Full details are in this post, including the rules, but basically the person who gets the highest odds winning ticket wins. That means it's a level playing field for small and large stakes players so everyone has the same chance of winning. Tix is here.
Let's get to it. Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start; do not oversleep.
1.20 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
The traditional curtain raiser. The roar of the crowd. It's become cliché to mention the roar but, if you've ever been on the side of that hill some time in the middle of the hour after 1pm, you'll know it's a real, almost palpable, spirit that manifests: 55,001+ individual exhortations merging into a single raucous cheer. Part relief that the waiting is over, part hope for what might come next, all expectation of a thrilling carnival of the horse... and they're off!
Hardly surprising, then, that in such a frenzied cauldron cool heads - whether connected above two or four legs - are tricky to find. Including the preliminaries, this is a twenty minute test of temperament as much as class, speed, agility and staying power. It is a thoroughly searching examination.
So who, and which, present themselves to the trial this time? In what is an almost exclusively Irish affair in 2025, with just two home challengers (one of those a triple digit price), in theory that makes assessing the form easier; there is no need to guess which of the cohorts separated by the Irish Sea might be ascendant. Here, at least, it will be the Irish on top. And yes, probably more generally so, too. Probably, but not definitely...
Current head boy is Kopek Des Bordes, unbeaten in three and rampant in a Grade 1 when last seen. On the bare form of that Dublin Racing Club score he's a few pounds ahead of the next best, for all that he'll likely need to find a little more to withstand the onslaught of this field, all of which are entitled to improve. That's the nature of races like the Supreme, as different from more workaday contests: it's not enough to know which horse has shown the best form so far - we must project to which might step forward the most under these conditions.
Think of it like this: Kopek Des Bordes begins the race with a few lengths' head start over the next most talented horse - on what we've seen to date let's call that one Romeo Coolio. Romeo in turn gets a couple of lengths on Salvator Mundi who is himself a couple in front of William Munny and Workahead. It's a staggered ability start.
But during the course of four minutes or so of racing much can change. Advantages can be whittled or extended, and as they collect beyond the jam stick at the top of the hill there will be a revised pecking order at least somewhere on the squash ladder.
Let's return to KdB. Yes, he was imperious at Leopardstown and, if your modus operandi is not to question but merely to punt in tune with the market, he's very likely to give you a stirring run for your rupees. But the value seeker has to furrow her brow, stroke his chin and scratch its head as she/he/it considers how each horse might get beaten, and how likely it is that they will be, before settling on a wager at the prevailing odds. For a majority of runners in all races, the most likely reason they'll be beaten is because they are not good enough. But that's not the only bullet to dodge.
Kopek Des Bordes is trained by Willie Mullins, a man with seven victories in this race, the first two of which returned 25/1 and 40/1. But those were in 1995 and 2007, and Willie is a little bit better known these days. His five subsequent winners, achieved between 2013 and 2021, all returned 6/1 or shorter and were all ridden by the first string jockey. So far, so Kopek - he certainly won't be beaten because of his connections.
But this fella has shown signs of immaturity in the past. On his first run this season, on St Stephen's/Boxing Day at Leopardstown, he over raced early and was clumsy at every single flight. He still won, comfortably, in a big field containing some smart novices. Perhaps it was just freshness after his summer layoff, and greenness on his first public hurdles outing.
He returned to that same venue five weeks later and was a new man, nearly. Still a little keen for much of the race, his jumping had been transformed and he was alert enough to dodge a loose horse crossing his path as it ran out. In the finish he laughed at this Grade 1 gang, many of which appeared credible contenders pre-race. It was a terrific performance and one that promises more when he learns to settle better.
If he is headstrong, he'll need to cope with a first trip outside Ireland; and with the Festival preamble, rarely more of a test than for the opening race; and with the anxiety of his rider down at the start (even the most experienced and calmest of pilots gets dem buttyflies circling by the tape). Frankly, he's expended so much nervous energy in his first two hurdle races without facing a serious challenge in the run to the line that expecting a boilover to change the result might be wishful thinking. But if there is a chink in his armour, that's the prime suspect.
Who else? What about Romeo Coolio? Trained by Gordon Elliott, who tends to swerve the DRF with his A listers, Romeo was second in the Champion Bumper here last year (travelling, check) and won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novices' Hurdle at Christmas (class, check). He's also shown form on soft through to good to yielding turf (going, check). It was a taking performance in slamming Bleu De Vassy by nine lengths in the G1 but the horses he beat were thumped by Kopek Des Bordes over the same track and trip in February. He looks reliable but perhaps hasn't got quite the upside of the favourite. And the former Deloitte Hurdle that Kopek won has a much better track record in Supreme terms than the Future Champions.
Salvator Mundi has had a tall reputation ever since chasing home Sir Gino in France, both horses subsequently purchased by the Donnelly's. He ran a midfield race on his UK debut, in the Triumph Hurdle no less, and didn't race in Ireland until May of last year when he picked up a maiden hurdle in a field of 13 by... checks notes... 62 lengths! It's fair to say that was an extremely moderate contest in this context so what happened next? Salvator went to Punchestown for the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in mid-January and won by three lengths. His performance there - pulled hard, jumped poorly - was reminiscent of Kopek Des Bordes' seasonal debut; if he can improve a similar amount, in form and comportment terms, he's clear second best and has a chance to derail his more illustrious stablemate. If.
The last two winning trainers in the race were Henry de Bromhead and Barry Connell, both of whom have had the horrible misfortune to be touched (or in Henry's case, gripped) by tragedy in recent years. De Bromhead bids to repeat last year's success with the unexposed Workahead. Winner of a point on his debut in January 2023 (form has some substance), he was off then until early December last year when running third in a huge field behind Jasmin De Vaux. He came on for that effort in clearing away, by seven lengths from William Munny, in a maiden at Christmas.
William Munny, representing Connell, whose 2023 winner Marine Nationale was ridden by the late Michael O'Sullivan, so tragically lost and in whose memory the race is now named, has run twice since defeat to Workahead: a close second to the now injured Kawaboomga and then an easy win in Listed company last month. Neither of those runs quite match up to Workahead's performance in beating him, and Henry's horse has much the greater scope to improve. The 75 day layoff is a bit of a concern but de Bromhead knows what he's doing when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.
We're getting into the longer grass now with the likes of Irancy and Karbau, Mullins 'also engaged' types. Both are unexposed albeit with a more ordinary level of form, and neither make much appeal given Willie's first string record in this race.
Closest to Kopek Des Bordes at Leopardstown was Karniquet, who I quite fancied for the County Hurdle. Instead, he's been declared here and, though I bet him months ago, I'm behind the current price and don't fancy him one bit in this company. Funiculi Funicula is the final string to Willie's hirsute bow and he comes here off a Clonmel maiden score, which is like getting going from the springboard at your local baths to cliff diving in Mexico: good luck with that project.
There are two home contenders, comfortably the more likely of the duo being Tripoli Flyer. He was a good winner of the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, form that is solid but not spectacular. Connections initially suggested he'd miss the Cheltenham party, but here he is and it feels a bit of an afterthought. Likeable chap all the same. Tutti Quanti and Henry's other runner, Sky Lord, might need to start now to have a winning chance.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Pace Projection
More Willie's out front than an am dram production of Hot Fuzz.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection
This revolves around Kopek Des Bordes. He seems sure to be on the premises assuming he doesn't boil over and he might be almost (almost!) a bet to nothing with the 'money back (as free bet) if second' books. A value alternative is Workahead, lightly raced but with very good form in the book already. He jumps well, looks a strong stayer and has the scope to step forward a fair bit.
Suggestion: Back Kopek Des Bordes with the 'money back if second' concession. And/or try Workahead each way at 8/1 or bigger.
Matt's Tix Pix:Tix is a smart multi-race bet placement tool that is free to use. In this race, I'll have the favourite on A and a couple of alternatives, as well as unnamed favourite on B.
I have not been able to find an Arkle bet all season.
And I’m still struggling, with Majborough being a strong favourite that is hard to oppose after impressing in both chase starts this season, and also having already won at the Festival when taking last season’s Triumph. Some will point to no five-year-old having won the Arkle since the weight allowance was eradicated but none of those since Voy Por Ustedes were in Marlborough’s class and he won a four-year-old championship despite Mullins stating he looked more like a three-mile chaser. He looks correctly priced at 4/7 to finally give J P McManus a first Arkle winner and Willie Mullins his seventh in 11 years.
So, I have been waiting for a 'without Majborough' market to emerge for some inspiration for a bet and we have just four to choose from (would have been three but for the jettisoning of the Turners). They are headed by L’Eau Du Sud who is 4-4 over fences including landing the Grade 1 Henry VIII and two Grade 2s at Warwick and here over course and distance.
And that Cheltenham win was where I thought he jumped the best of his four wins. I doubt he was fully wound up at Warwick where he won the race early after kicking on five out. Too early as it turned out as Rubaud almost caught him, that one having won the Pendil since, so I’m fancying Harry Skelton to hold L’Eau Du Sud up this time and ride him to have one go at Majborough; that is also the best way to ride him if they want to guarantee good prize money for the Trainers’ Championship and David Power Cup which is also in their minds. I’m sure Dan left plenty to work on fitness-wise in the Kingmaker.
Personally, I think the best chance they have of beating Majborough is to sit on his outside and put the jolly’s jumping under pressure, as he made niggly errors at three fences down the back straight and there are two extra fences to be jumped in the Arkle over a sharper test of speed and a shorter race. Will they do that, or prefer to ride him patiently and pounce late?
I fancy that Jango Baie is a better horse than L’Eau Du Sud but can he be as effective as the grey over two miles? Without a doubt, he’d be in the Turners over 2m4f if that race still existed. A Grade 1 winning novice hurdler rated 8lb higher than Dan Skelton’s charge over hurdles, he too jumped Cheltenham very well when winning in December, and the runner-up Springwell Bay is now rated 154 after winning since so two big ticks there. Narrowly beaten by Handstands last time in sticky ground, where Nico was kind of looking after him with the spring in mind, even over two miles I’d expect him to improve on that effort. Can he give Nicky Henderson an eighth win in the race?
Touch Me Not is expected to make the pace but having been beaten by L’Eau Du Sud at Sandown by 3¾l (made a bad mistake at half-way though didn’t lose much momentum) and Majborough at Leopardstown by 9l, it’s hard to make an argument why he can cause an upset and many would rather see him in the Grand Annual instead. On a literal line through him, Majborough has over 5l in hand over L’Eau Du Sud.
More interesting of the two outsiders is Only By Night with her 7lb mares’ allowance, which Put The Kettle On took advantage of to win the 2020 Arkle. She would be half the odds (or even more) if running in the Mares’ Chase so this is a bold move from her connections but they know she is fully effective at 2m whereas 2m4f wasn’t a guarantee on Friday. A fine jumper and a big, scopey mare, she has taken off for going chasing.
Arkle Recent Winners
Arkle Pace Projection
Touch Me Not will probably unwittingly make the pace for Majborough, with the likes of L'Eau du Sud expected to play later. It's possible Nico tries to use Jango Baie's stamina and goes for home mid-race.
Arkle Chase Selection
In short, all markets including the Without-fav market look bang on so I can’t find an Arkle bet. Sorry! Better luck tomorrow!
Suggestion: No bet.
Matt's Tix Pix: Maj banker on A, with some 'just in case' C cover.
2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)
Previewed by Dave Renham.
The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and in these types of races I use past race trends at Cheltenham as an important part of my narrowing the field process.
This is a race where British trainers have dominated, with no Irish winner since Tony Martin’s Dun Doire in 2006. However, the Irish are targeting the race more than they have done in the past having had seven runners in 2022 and eight last year. This year there are five Irish-trained entries with Malina Girl the shortest priced at around the 12/1 mark.
Looking at the British challenge Lucinda Russell won the Ultima in 2022 and 2023 with Corach Rambler. Prior to that she saddled four other runners, priced 20/1, 28/1, 16/1 and 25/1, finishing 4th, 4th, 5th and 6th respectively. This time, she runs Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown. The O’Neill yard have had three wins and four placed runners from 25 starters although their last win was back in 2014. Their sole entry this year is Crebilly. David Pipe, who runs King Turgeon, has also enjoyed three winners as well as the runner up in 2022.
Time to dig into other past trends.
23 of the last 25 winners finished in the first six last time out (LTO), with the two wins from those 7th or worse coming at a cost of 163 runners.
From a market perspective 19 of the 25 winners came from the top five in the betting, including 11 of the last 12.
56% of all runners have been Irish-bred yet they have provided the winner 84% of the time (21 times). Irish-breds have outperformed all other countries of breeding in the place market, too, hitting 22% compared with 15%.
Other positives include a LTO market rank in the top four of the betting, and having one to three career chase wins.
Looking at weight carried there is a roughly even split between the top half of the weights and the bottom half.
Age wise seven- and eight-year-olds have provided 64% of the winners from 46% of the runners so there would be a marginal preference for those compared to other ages.
The two that tick all of the main trends boxes are The Changing Man and Broadway Boy.
The Changing Man easily won a weak-looking renewal of the Reynoldstown last time but, more importantly for me, his previous three runs when second each time came in top notch handicaps. Detractors could argue why should he suddenly break that run of seconds in handicaps, but it is hard to see him out of the frame.
Broadway Boy is well fancied by the stable and this has been the target. Yes, he does have a couple of negatives – the 0 from 32 stable record in the race (last 25 years), and his disappointing run last time at Cheltenham. However, the yard has rarely had fancied runners in this race (just three sent off at single figure odds) and there were valid excuses for his most recent poor run. His other Cheltenham form is excellent, comprising three wins, a second and a third from five other starts. He likes to race up with the pace and so should stay out of trouble.
While discussing run style this race has seen hold up horses as the most successful group in the past 25 years. However, in the more recent past the Ultima has seemingly started to favour prominent racers. The pace map is below.
The main competition for the lead with Broadway Boy looks likely to be in the shape of Myretown – hopefully they won’t take each other on too early.
Horses that join The Changing Man and Broadway Boy on my shortlist include Henry’s Friend. He ticks most of the trends and had a good win last time out. He jumps well and he should be close to the pace. Whistle Stop Tour also matches most of the trends and, as mentioned earlier, his trainer Lucinda Russell knows how to get her runners right for this one. A horse at a bigger price that I can see running well is Famous Bridge. He came fourth last year and, although 3lb higher now, his last run at Haydock was impressive albeit over further. With several bookies offering six places his price of around 18/1 offers each way punters an option.
My final piece of number-crunching is that, looking at the past 10 years, if backing all horses in the top five of the betting ‘blind’ one would have secured an ROI of 57% to SP and 78% to BSP. A good profit would have been achieved if backing all qualifiers to place on the exchange. You'll not be surprised, therefore, to see four of my shortlisted runners near the head of the market.
Ultima Recent Winners
Ultima Pace Projection
An even looking tempo overall, though a lot of perennially prominent racers may push things on from the start.
Ultima Handicap Chase Selection
Suggestion: Try Broadway Boy win only at 15/2
Matt's Tix Pix: A's and B's and not straying far from the top of the market.
The race which has changed complexion most since confirmations is the Mares’ Hurdle, starting with the supplementary entry of William Hill (Schweppes for those over 55) Hurdle winner Joyeuse, followed by a surprise (to many) switch for Lossiemouth, who we’d been told was definitely on track for the Champion Hurdle; and, at the last minute, Golden Ace, definitely on track for this according to Jeremy Scott, jumped into the Champion Hurdle instead.
All that to-ing and fro-ing means the ante-post betting needs treating with caution, and if you’re worried that your pre-confirmations pick is now drifting, that’s only to be expected thanks to the influence Lossiemouth will have on the market. Whether she will have the same impact in the race is the big question, and my gut instinct was that switching her was a sign that Willie Mullins wasn’t happy enough with her wellbeing to think she could win or run well in a Champion Hurdle. If that’s the case it could be argued that she is too short, at around 4/6, for this race. Whatever race you’re running in at the Festival, you can’t afford to be short of your peak even if the ratings suggest otherwise.
The counterpoint to the above argument was put forward by Ruby Walsh on Paddy Power’s FTHM podcast on Sunday when he said the switch was simply a case of Paul Townend wanting to ride Lossiemouth. Had she run in the Champion, Townend would have ridden State Man, but he’d also rather ride Lossiemouth than Jade de Grugy in this race and hence the decision was made to switch target. You don’t have to believe that story, but it’s there for you to mull over in any case, having implications for the chances of both Lossiemouth and the original ante-post favourite.
Aside from the argument as to her wellbeing and how a heavy fall at Leopardstown last time will have affected her, there is also the debate about what Lossiemouth achieved 12 months ago. Beating Telmesomethinggirl, Hispanic Moon and Lantry Lady (beaten a total of 169 lengths in their four completed starts since) is not the performance it was cracked up to be at the time. She is a grand mare, but definitely a little overrated in some quarters, and her run behind Constitution Hill at Kempton is a fair guide to her ability. A repeat of that might be just enough to win this, but she doesn’t really appeal at her odds-on quote.
Jade de Grugy has undeniable form claims having won a Grade 1 as a novice, and she was visually impressive in winning the Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown on her belated return. I think there’s an element of recency bias in the way she’s been catapulted to the head of the market, and she has been shunned by Paul Townend which is hardly a boost to backers’ confidence. She is still a trifle short in the betting on balance based on the generic drift in the field when Lossiemouth was declared, although she may get bigger on the day. On the other hand, it’s not easy to make a strong case for the same connections’ Gala Marceau, who was disappointing at Warwick behind Royale Margaux, with a blunder two out incidental in the grand scheme.
Joyeuse was supplemented for this after winning the William Hill Hurdle impressively off a mark of 123, but even if you take the view she had a stone in hand that day she would still have something to find at this level, and it should be borne in mind that she had no other options at Cheltenham having failed to qualify for the handicaps.
July Flower has shown smart form in France, with the pick of her efforts a third in the French Champion Hurdle behind Losange Bleu and Hewick last May. She’s disappointed in two UK starts, pulling too hard, but settled better when winning on her return for Henry de Bromhead in the Grade 3 Kerrymount Mares’ Hurdle over an extended 2m3f at Leopardstown in late December, beating Kala Conti and Jetara by 4 lengths and 16 lengths, respectively.
July Flower was well ridden to score in the Kerrymount, Rachael Blackmore sitting a little way off the strong pace set by Lot of Joy and Jetara before closing up from halfway and expending her energy more efficiently than the leaders. Kala Conti was closer to that pace and made her bid for home earlier than ideal but was still only four lengths adrift of July Flower in second at the line. Kala Conti was conceding 5lb to the winner on the day, and I would rate her higher on the figures for that contest, as would most conventional handicappers.
The Leopardstown form looked good at the time and has been franked by subsequent black-type wins for Jetara and World of Fortunes, while Lot of Joy, beaten 48 lengths there, finished much closer to Jade de Grugy in the Quevega last month.
Mares' Hurdle Recent Winners
Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection
No obvious pace angle and it might be that Lossiemouth makes her own running to keep it simple and safe.
Mares' Hurdle Selection
If there is one mare who is unexposed and capable of improvement at this trip, it’s KALA CONTI, who was racing beyond 2m for the first time in the Kerrymount and arguably produced a career-best effort, although it’s worth pointing out that her defeat of Kargese and Nurburgring in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown last season is a pretty warm piece of form, as is finishing within half a length of Majborough in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at the same track 13 months ago. Or even a second-place finish behind the much-vaunted Anzadam when carrying a 5lb penalty in the Grade 3 Willowwarm Hurdle earlier this season.
Gordon Elliott has not been shouting Kala Conti from the rooftops, but her form credentials are there in plain sight, and her price has consistently failed to reflect those claims, perhaps because she was expected in some quarters to head to the Coral Cup. At one stage, July Flower was 5/1 for this while Kala Conti was 25/1 and while the differential is smaller now, I would argue strongly that it’s Kala Conti who should be the shorter price of the pair. As such, she represents perhaps the best each-way value of the week in the Championship and quasi-championship races at the meeting.
Suggestion: Back Kala Conti each way at around 16/1.
Matt's Tix Pix: Lossie and Jade on A, plus a few B's here in search of a result, I think.
The highlight on day one is unquestionably the Champion Hurdle and, for what it lacks in quantity of runners, it more than compensates through their sheer quality. The last two winners of the race return and will be joined by a mare in receipt of seven pounds and who put up arguably the performance of the season. Let's get to the details.
The 2024 winner was State Man, a first since 2016 for Willie Mullins, and he defends his crown after a somewhat middling campaign by his own lofty standards. A narrow defeat to Brighterdaysahead on seasonal debut was perfectly reasonable and promised a step forward next time. However, while that first to second run improvement has been a feature of Mullins' top class team this term, State Man was thumped by 31 lengths at the hooves of the same mare when they reacquainted in the Neville Hotels Hurdle (G1). Between the pair, a length and a quarter ahead of State Man, was 10-year-old (now 11) Winter Fog, sent off at 66/1; and only a length and a half behind State Man was 200/1 shot Fils d'Oudairies.
The winning time was good but not great, and that all leads to me being pretty suspicious of the merit of the winner's performance: like the race time, I feel it was good but not great. Could it have been very tacky ground that day, favouring those on the speed and perhaps conditions State Man hated? Or was State Man just bang out of sorts. It's a stretch to believe that both horses ran their races and the mare's winning margin extended by more than thirty lengths!
Obviously, if you take that form literally - and at least one extremely good judge and former multiple top jockey at the meeting is doing just that - then you'd have to think Brighterdaysahead wins the Champion Hurdle. She had a pacemaker there and the same horse, King Of Kingsfield, will do her donkey work again here. I wasn't overly impressed with her jumping that day and we've not seen her since - though that's fairly typical for Gordon Elliott to skip the Dublin Racing Festival, the obvious stepping stone between Christmas and Cheltenham.
State Man did win last time, at the DRF, where he beat Daddy Long Legs (who?) by six lengths after Lossiemouth paid for a poor jump at top speed when she and State Man were having at it from the get go. The winner was entitled to tire after his early exertions, and his score would be considered hugely inefficient in sectional terms; still, sometimes you gotta win ugly if you wanna win (and sometimes you gotta write ugly if you wanna entertain - yuk). The victory did little for the winner's Champion Hurdle prospects bar knock a rival out of the reckoning and perhaps restore a touch of his shattered confidence. He's not been the same Man this season.
It's high time we introduced the top billing, Constitution Hill. Forced to miss last year's Blue Riband due to the ailment that struck the Seven Barrows yard of trainer Nicky Henderson, he's back and bouncing again this term. There's been plenty of chat about how he's 'better than ever', a claim which is both highly likely untrue and also completely moot. His form in winning four times, three of them Grade 1's, since his 2023 Champion Hurdle success has been at a notably lower - in the order of ten to 15 pounds - level. And yet it's still better than Brighterdaysahead's, barring that one 'too good to be true?' run.
Henderson's record in the race is peerless: his nine wins bests Willie's five, with Elliott yet to register. Moreover, Henderson had won four of the seven renewals between Annie Power's 2016 triumph and State Man's last year for the Closutton squad - a race in which the Brit had the clear favourite before his withdrawal.
This season Constitution Hill ran Lossiemouth off her legs early in Kempton's G1 Christmas Hurdle before that mare battled on gamely to go down by only two and a half lengths; and he then showed up for the G2 International Hurdle on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham. That was essentially a regulation canter but proved his wellbeing, a sentiment affirmed by an excellent public workout at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. The 'vibes' then are strong with this one.
Burdett Road has been nine lengths behind Constitution Hill (bad blunder at the second last stopped him being a little closer) and was apparently outstayed by Golden Ace in the Kingwell last time. That mare, herself a Cheltenham Festival winner twelve months ago when beating Brighterdaysahead no less in a muddling Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle, will need to travel at a much quicker tempo this time - but she's at least showing better form as the spring arrives. Her greater proven stamina ought to see her finish in front of Burdett Road again.
The rest are very unlikely to be good enough and any of them winning would be one of the shocks of all time at the Festival.
Champion Hurdle Recent Winners
Champion Hurdle Pace Projection
A slightly misleading pace map as King Of Kingsfield is expected to push the pace for ownermate Brighterdaysahead. Burdett Road is a customary forward goer, too.
Champion Hurdle Selection
A small field race between classy but largely exposed horses does not generally a value proposition make. This comes down to how highly you rate the performance of Brighterdaysahead in battering several of her Champion Hurdle rivals, notably State Man, in that Christmas Grade 1 at Leopardstown. Anything like a literal interpretation means she's the play for you. But she's not the play for me, except with Tote's generous 'money back as a free bet if second' offer. I can't have State Man on his form this season and will consider it one of Willie's finest achievements if he can pull this rabbit out of the hat.
No, it's Constitution Hill for me. I respect the mare, especially in receipt of 7lb (a concession I don't particularly respect in G1's), but I want to see the former heavyweight champion reclaim his belt. Betting wise he's not my sort of price but I have included him in a few 'muggy' accas.
Suggestion: Bet Brighterdaysahead with the tote 'money back as free bet if second' concession. I don't think she'll beat Constitution Hill, but if I've underestimated that demolition job last time then she looks just about a free hit against Constitution Hill. Call it an emotional hedge if you like: my heart is all in on Connie.
4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Hallgarten & Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, to you and me) is a tough race for juveniles, usually completely different from anything they’ve contested before.
One of the key attributes is experience. Whilst experience in lots of hurdles race helps, it can also show your hand to the handicapper. In France there is a three-year-old season in the spring and horses benefit from experience over time there. They learn at home as well as at the track and the early start horses get in France can be a big advantage.
Horses that began in National Hunt races in France are 8/88 for +59 (66% ROI).
Murciahas a good profile, then, having begun in France more than a year ago and racing four times by early June, after which she was sold to join Willie Mullins.
Her first run for Willie was in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown at Christmas where she bombed out, beaten 22l in 8th. However, Jeff Kidder (2021 Fred Winter winner) was last of seven, and Aramax (2020 winner) was well beaten when falling in that Grade 2.
Juveniles, even more so than older novices, can improve hugely through the season - or regress as they develop physically. It’s always as well to be cautious about form in the autumn and at Christmas, as it often gets reversed come the spring.
Not many Festival handicaps have a key trial as the conditions races often do. However, there is a rated hurdle at Naas in February which was run for the first time in 2017 and is building up a strong profile as a springboard for Fred Winter winners.
The previous eight renewals of the Naas race have produced four Fred Winter winners, three of which were doing the double. Overall, runners from it are 4/17 +26 (153% ROI), with 3 of the 13 losers placed. In addition, Lark In The Mornin was declared at Naas last year but became a non-runner on the day, before winning the Fred Winter. This very much looks the race used by top Irish yards to prep for the Fred Winter.
This year Murcia looked green and her jumping was novicey but she finished really strongly to be beaten just a neck. She will have to be much more professional if she is to cope with the hurly-burly of a 22-runner juvenile handicap where they tend to go a strong gallop for the quality of the race. There’s the risk that it’s all too much for her and she bombs out but the reward is that she is open to stacks of improvement if she can put it all together – connections seem to think she’ll love the drying ground.
Those four Naas runners won the Fred Winter off 125 (Jazzy Matty), 137 (Brazil), 138 (Aramax) & 139 (Band Of Outlaws). Murcia has a mark of 133 in Ireland and the BHA handicapper has added 3lb so she’ll be running off 136, very similar to three of the previous winners from the Naas trial.
Fred Winter Hurdle Recent Winners
Fred Winter Hurdle Pace Projection
Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle selection
Suggestion: Back Murcia at 10/1 or bigger (Matt Tombs)
Matt's Tix Pix: Five on A, and five more on B. At least!
5.20 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)
Previewed by David Massey.
Well, it’s a new look for an old Festival favourite this year, with the National Hunt Chase now a 0-145 handicap and not restricted to amateur riders anymore. As such, trends are hardly worth bothering with, although a trainer that’s had a few placed in the race before - David Pipe - has one here that just about heads my list up.
Gericault Roque has the look of one laid out for this. It seems almost ridiculous that a horse that finished second to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima is still a novice, but here we are, seven runs later and no wins. But you can hardly argue with his form in big-field handicaps; second in a Mandarin, second in a Classic at Warwick, third in a Coral Gold Cup. It all stacks up.
He came back from a 26-month absence to run really well at Windsor 53 days ago. I was there on the day, my paddock notes reading “looks okay given the long absence, will come on but by no means unfit” and the way he ran in the race suggested those observations were close to the mark. He faded out of contention from two out but was far from disgraced in getting beaten less than ten lengths at the finish.
Wisely given time to recover from that run, he has the right profile for this and, with an extra place on offer, he looks a very solid each-way selection.
The winner of that Windsor race, Herakles Westwood, would be my back-up selection at the current prices. He’s always felt to me like a thorough stayer and, after the Windsor win, went to Newbury and confirmed that opinion by staying on all the way to the line over three miles, finishing third. I think a marathon distance could be right up his street, Harry Cobden in the saddle only a positive. I’ll throw a few quid at the forecast as well, just in case that’s the piece of form that unlocks this puzzle.
As far as the Irish contingent go, the race that the market believes will throw up the winner is the beginners' chase at Navan in January, won by the classy Three Card Brag with Captain Cody finishing third and Now Is The Hour fourth. Both runners headed here are unexposed over fences and, for a horse that was a Grade 2 winner over the smaller obstacles, Now Is The Hour looks to have a very workable mark off 139, with similar comments applying to Captain Cody off 140 (also a Grade 2 hurdles winner) - but I’m not telling you anything the market isn’t. Both will have been readied for this, and I couldn’t put you off.
November winner Transmission is another obvious one, with Neil Mulholland booking Patrick Mullins again (you did know you don’t have to book an amateur didn’t you, Neil?) but again, the market has him well found.
National Hunt Chase Recent Winners
NB This race was a non-handicap before 2025.
National Hunt Chase Pace Projection
National Hunt Chase Selection
The more I look at the race the more I think Gericault Roque is pretty much nailed on to run a good race, and he's my main selection. I also think he’ll be well-backed on the day, going off single figures, so anything 10/1 and up looks worth taking.
Selection: Back Gericault Roque each way at 10/1
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Those are the seven head scratchers on Day 1 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and how our assembled panel of experts see them. As with punting more generally, it's got to be fun first, profit second (the two not being mutually exclusive, of course); so if you've enjoyed the read, you're a winner already!
Stay lucky
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/ConstitutionHill_UnibetHurdle_CheltenhamTrialsDay2025.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-10 07:26:452025-03-10 17:38:32Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day One Preview, Tips
Each day of the 2025 Cheltenham Festivalour horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!
The 'day one' feature is the Grade One Unibet Champion Hurdle - a race in which 35 of the last 41 winners won last time out. While the Irish or Nicky Henderson have won 22 of the last 26 renewals between them.
You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2025 below.
2024 Winner: Slade Steel Trainer – Henry De Bromhead Jockey – Rachael Blackmore UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses…..
• 24 of the last 28 winners won their last race
• 14 of the last 21 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
• 13 of the last 15 winners came from the first 4 in the market
• 12 of the last 13 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
• 22 of the last 30 winners ran in the last 45 days
• Irish-trained horses have won 19 of the last 33 runnings
• 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 18 of the last 20 runnings
• Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and for 5 of the last 12 years
• 8 of the last 12 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
• 27 of the last 30 winners had raced that same calendar year
• Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 12 runnings
• 6 of the last 11 winners had been rated 153 or more
• 11 of the last 12 winners returned a single-figure price
• 11 of the last 16 winners were previous bumper winners
• Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times
Negatives…..
• Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 4 from the last 28. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
• Since 1992 all horses (40) wearing head-gear have been beaten
• We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
• Just 4 of the last 22 winners came here unbeaten
• Just 2 of the last 22 winners aged 7 or older
• Just 2 outright winning favourites in the last 20 runnings
• 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
• Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade
• 15 of the last 20 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
• 19 of the last 25 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
• 14 of the last 15 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 23)
• 23 of the last 25 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
• 15 of the last 19 winners had won at least twice over fences before
• 16 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 16 of the last 22 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
• 15 of the last 21 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
• 9 of the last 13 winners were unbeaten over fences
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times
• Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 10 runnings
• 10 of the last 13 winners trained by Willie Mullins (6) or Nicky Henderson (4)
• 10 of the last 13 favourites have won
Negatives…..
• Only 3 of the last 38 winners failed to win or finish second last time out
• Just 3 of the last 34 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
• Only 4 of the last 33 winners were older than 7 years-old
• The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
• Ex-flat horses have a poor record
• Only 2 winners since 2000 won with headgear
• 5 year-olds are 0-16 since 2007
• Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (previous season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners
2.40 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV
2024 Winner: CHIANTI CLASSICO Trainer – Kim Bailey Jockey – David Bass UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 19 of the last 25 winners were officially rated 143 or less
• 17 of the last 24 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 20 of the last 24 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
• 18 of the last 24 were novices or second season chasers
• 10 of the last 17 winners were rated between 142-146 (8 between 142-145)
• Horses rated 140+ have won 16 of the last 24 runnings
• 9 of the last 22 won last time out
• Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
• 10 of the last 13 winners wore headgear
• 10 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
• Jonjo O’Neill, Lucinda Russell, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
• All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
• 5 of the last 10 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
• 5 of the last 11 winners ran in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) that season
• 13 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
• Northern-based runners have a good record
Negatives….
• Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 12 of the last 20 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8 and Chianti Classico in 2024 carried 11st 4bs)
• Horses aged 11 or older are just 3 from 58 to even get placed
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 25
• Only 3 winners in the last 16 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
• Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
• The Irish have won just 2 of the last 56 runnings (since 1967)
• Irish-trained runners are 0-46 in the last 18 runnings
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Follow Irish-trained mares (14 of last 17)
• The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 13 of the last 17 runnings
• 10 of the last 17 favourites have won
• 13 of the last 17 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
• 15 of the last 17 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• Willie Mullins has trained 10 of the last 17 winners
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• Novices generally do well
• 12 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 13 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 10 renewals
• 13 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 14 of the last 17 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males
Negatives….
• Avoid front-runners
• British-bred mares are currently 3-90
• Just2 outright favourites in the last 10 runnings
• Just one winner from last 33 runners to wear headgear have won
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
• Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
• Just 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)
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The 2025 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
£4 Discount With Promo Code: TNCFBG25
Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.
Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.
2024 Winner: STATE MAN (1st 2/5 fav) Trainer – Willie Mullins Jockey – Paul Townend UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 35 of the last 41 won last time out
• 10 of the last 15 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles
• Horses unbeaten that season often do well (12 of last 14)
• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 22 of the last 26 runnings between them
• 11 of the last 16 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
• The Irish have won 16 of the last 26 runnings
• Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 15 (9 in total)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings (5 in total)
• 29 of the last 35 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (12 of last 17)
• 16 of the last 26 winners had won at the Festival before
• 27 of the last 40 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (5 winners, 6 places in last 17 runnings)
• 14 of the last 29 winners started as flat horses
• The last 10 winners were unbeaten that season
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 9 times, including 4 of the last 8 years
• 7 of the last 16 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
• Mares are currently 4 from 10 during last 9 runnings
• 9 of the last 12 favourites won
• 20 of the last 24 winners had run within the last 60 days
Negatives….
• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 2 from 113 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-31 in the last 42 runnings)
• Just 2 of the last 18 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are just 5 from 33, but – Epatante 2020 & 2023 Constitution Hill) – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
• Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
• International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 21 years)
• Only 2 of the last 26 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before
• The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was Constitution Hill (2023), but before that was 53 years ago (Bula)
4:40 - Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle 2m 87y) ITV
2024 Winner: LARK IN THE MORNIN (9/1) Trainer – Joseph O’Brien Jockey – J J Slevin UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 11 of the last 20 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
• French bred horses have a good record
• 10 of the last 20 winners started their careers in France
• Respect Fillies
• 13 of the last 20 winners carried 11st+
• 9 of the last 20 winners won last time out
• 10 of the last 14 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
• 11 of the last 20 had run in the last 25 days
• David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (4 of last 11), Joseph O’Brien (2 of the last 6) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
• 6 of the last 13 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 13 priced 25/1+)
• 13 of the last 20 winners returned a double-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 14 of the last 20 winners were rated between 124-134
• 8 of the last 17 winners were British-trained
• The Irish have trained the last 7 winners
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 15 runnings
• 15 of the last 20 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
Negatives….
• Just 3 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 43 between them
• Just 3 of the last 20 winners rated 135+
• Horses bred in Britain are 0-63 (last 15 years)
• Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 23 (just 4 placed in top 5 too)
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
• Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 20
5:20 – National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV
Note: This race will be run as a Novices' Handicap for the first time in 2025
Pluses…..
• 13 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 14 of the last 19 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old (25 of the last 34)
• 10 of the last 15 winners had run 5+ times over fences
• 12 of the last 14 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
• 8 of the last 14 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
• 8 of the last 18 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
• 11 of the last 15 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
• 11 of the last 14 winners returned a single-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear (Corbetts Cross 1st-time hood in 2024)
• 10 of the last 14 winners Irish-trained
• 11 of the last 14 winners were rated 145 (or more)
• Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (7 winners)
• Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-22)
• Jockey Derek O’Connor has 3 wins / 5 places (from 18 rides)
• Derek O’Connor & Patrick Mullins have won 7 of the last 14 (4 P Mullins, 3 O’Connor)
• Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings
• Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 14 runners
• 3 of the last 7 winners owned by Ronnie Bartlett
Negatives….
• 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 83 since 1989
• Just 5 of the last 13 winners were top-rated
• Favourites have won just 4 of the last 15 runnings
• Just 2 of the last 34 winners were aged 6 years-old
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 19
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
• Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
• Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 17)
• Just 2 winners in the last 16 returned bigger than 12/1
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ConstitutionHill_TolworthHurdle.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2025-03-09 08:00:082025-03-09 09:40:272025 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 11th March 2025)
Each day of the2025 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival for you!
The 'day two' feature is the Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Nicky Henderson has won six times and holds a strong hand with prolific winner Jonbon to make it seven and become the all-time winning handler this his big Cheltenham Festival race.
You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2025 below.
• 18 of the last 20 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 7 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• 13 of the last 16 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
• 20 of the last 24 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
• 24 of the last 30 winners won last time out
• 29 of the last 30 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• The Irish have won 15 of the last 22 (10 of last 11)
• Horses rated 150+ do well
• 13 of the last 16 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
• 25 of the last 30 winners (including last 13) had won at least one bumper race
• 18 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 11 of the last 14 winners were aged 6
• In the last 13 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 27 of the 39 top 3 places
• 24 of the last 26 were NH bred
• 1 of the last 26 had won a graded race before
• Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (9 of the last 14 had won an Irish Point)
• Respect Willie Mullins – 7 winners in last 17 years (5 of the last 11)
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
Negatives….
• Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
• Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
• Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 60 (since 1988)
• Only two of the last 38 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• The last 21 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
• Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten 0 from 30 in the last 18 years)
2024 Winner: FACT TO FILE (8/13 fav) Trainer – Willie Mullins Jockey – Mark Walsh UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 6 of the last 16 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase
• The last 23 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
• 17 of the last 18 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
• 26 of the last 30 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
• Respect 7 year-olds – won 15 of the last 18 (20 of last 25)
• 13 of the last 19 winners won last time out
• 8 of the last 15 winners were beaten on their chase debut
• 9 of the last 17 winners had won a bumper before
• 9 of the last 18 favourites won
• The last 10 winners were rated 150+
• 12 of the last 13 winners returned single-figures in the betting
• 22 of the last 24 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
• Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
• Irish bred horses are 22 from the last 28
• 13 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
• 8 of the last 16 winners were trained in Ireland
• Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins (6 wins) and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (12 of the last 21 between them)
• 26 of the last 32 were novice hurdling last season
• 6 of the last 15 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (56 of the last 58 winners had)
• 13 of the last 18 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
• 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
Negatives….
• No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
• Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
• Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
• Just 3 of the last 25 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
• No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
• French bred horses are 2-from-44 (last 17 years, but the 2022 winner L’Homme Presse and 2024 winner Fact TO File were French-breds)
• The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 13 years
• Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 25 winners)
• Mares are currently 0-from-12 in the race
• Horses in headgear have a poor record
2024 Winner: LANGER DAN (13/2) Trainer – Dan Skelton Jockey – Harry Skelton UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 12 of the last 20 were 2nd season hurdlers
• 18 of the last 24 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
• 12 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before (10 had top 4 finish)
• 11 of the last 15 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
• 11 of the last 16 winners were rated in the 140’s
• 15 of the last 25 winners aged 6 or 7
• 11 of the last 15 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 14 of the last 19 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
• 21 of the last 30 winners won earlier that season
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners
• Respect trainers Dan Skelton (last 2), Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (9 wins in last 15 years)
• 10 of the last 23 winners were French-Bred
• 15 of the last 31 won last time out
• Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 16)
• Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (14 of last 16 winners)
• 17 of the last 20 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott was won 3 of the last 14 runnings
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 11 (4 in total)
• 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
• 4 of the last 6 winners wore headgear
• The last 28 winners aged 9 or younger
• The last 10 year-old winner in 1995
Negatives….
• Just one winning favourite in the last 21 years (2020)
• Only 6 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 309 to even place since 1999
• Just 6 winners since 2000 aged 8+
• Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 53 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 win Bleu Berry, 2018)
3:20 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV
(Note: Race abandoned in 2024) 2023 Winner: DELTA WORK (11/10 fav) Trainer – Gordon Elliott Jockey – Keith Donoghue UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• The Irish have won 16 of the last 19 runnings
• Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
• 16 of the last 19 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 22 of the last 26 winners came from the top three in the betting
• 10 of the last 19 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
• 15 of the last 19 winners had run on the course before
• Respect jockey Keith Donoghue (4 wins)
• 15 or the last 19 winners were aged 10 or younger
• 8 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or 9
• Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 13 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 7 runnings
• 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
• 10 of the last 19 winners had run in the NH Chase before
• 6 of the last 9 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
• The last 8 winners wore headgear
• 9 of the last 11 winners wore a tongue-tie
Negatives….
• Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but the 2022 winner Delta Work was running for the first time over the X-Country course
• Just 3 of the last 14 winners won their last race
• Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 101, but the 2020 winner was aged 6
• Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 17
• Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
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The 2025 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
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Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.
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2024 Winner: CAPTAIN GUINNESS (17/2) Trainer – Henry De Bromhead Jockey – Rachael Blackmore UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 13 of the last 24 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
• 4 of the last 12 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
• 25 of the last 40 had won at the Festival before
• Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 25 between them
• Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 13
• 30 of the last 38 winners aged between 7-9
• 14 of the last 23 winners won last time out
• 14 of the last 19 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 19 of the last 22 winners had run that calendar year
• 41 of the last 43 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
• 17 of the last 25 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 9 of the last 18 winners were French-bred
• 12 of the last 22 winners were second season chasers
• 17 of the last 19 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
• 22 of the last 26 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 18 of the last 25 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
• 7 of the last 14 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
• Past champions do well – 14 horses have won the CC more than once
Negatives….
• Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 40 years
• Just 1 winner in last 20 had run 4+ times that season
• Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
• Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 2 wins in the race (Energumene 2022 & 2023)
• Just 2 of the last 23 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
• Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
• Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-5 (Solness, 2025)
• Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 50 years
• Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 46 years
• 6 of the last 9 odds-on favourites have lost
• Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)
4:40 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV
2024 Winner: UNEXPECTED PARTY (12/1) Trainer – Dan Skelton Jockey – Harry Skelton UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 8 of the last 11 winners carried 11st or more
• 17 of the last 21 winners had run at the Festival before
• 8 of the last 21 winners ran in the previous years renewal
• Irish have won 5 of the last 12 runnings
• 11 of the last 15 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 12 of the last 16 winners novices or second season chasers
• 12 of the last 19 winners aged between 6-8
• 14 of the last 21 winners were aged 8 or older
• Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
• Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 21
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 12 placed)
• 13 of the last 14 winners were rated at least 138
• 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
• Novices have won 6 of the last 16 runnings
• 5 of the last 10 winners won after a 91+ day break
• 11 of the last 14 winners were rated between 138-147
• 12 of the last 14 winners rated between 138-150
• 8 of the last 11 winners carried 11st or more in weight
• 21 of the last 25 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
Negatives….
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 29 runnings, but the 2022 winner was a 10 year-old
• Trainer Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Last time out winners are just 1 from last 18
• Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 36 since 2005
• Only 2 of the last 20 winners were favourites
• Just 3 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
• Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record
5.30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV
2024 Winner: JASMIN DE VAUX (9/2) Trainer – Willie Mullins Jockey – Patrick Mullins UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 30 of the last 32 had won last time out (all of last 20)
• 25 of the last 32 winners trained in Ireland
• Respect Irish-trained runners (25 from 41)
• 23 of the last 32 came from the top 6 in the betting
• 24 of the last 32 were Irish-bred
• 13 of the last 24 winners were second season horses
• 18 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 21 of the last 32 winners aged 5 years-old
• 21 of the last 23 had their debut runs in Ireland
• 12 of the last 22 had been beaten in a race before
• 6 of the last 15 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
• Respect Willie Mullins (13 winners)
• The Irish lead the British 26-7 in the race history
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
• 13 of the last 22 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• Mares are 3-22 in the last 20 runnings
• 7 of the last 9 winners had run in February
• 3 of the last 6 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud
Negatives….
• Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
• Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
• Just 2 of the last 14 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
• Only 4 of the last 14 winners were won by UK-based trainers
• 4 year-olds are 1 from 69 since 2000 (Cue Card)
• Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
================================================
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/PremierMagic_CheltenhamFestival2023.png319830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2025-03-09 07:00:282025-03-09 09:40:202025 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 12th March 2025)
The Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us. For some it's just another race meeting, for many it's a special week in the racing calendar, and for a few it's Christmas and birthday rolled into one. Wherever you fit on that spectrum there are things about betting on Cheltenham that are different and that you ought to know. Those extend to what we're doing here on geegeez.co.uk, so let me share the plan for next week...
Daily Festival Previews
We'll have daily previews through the week covering all of the seven races each day. I'm delighted to say that I've got a crack squad of racing thinkers and writers to help you comb the form. They are:
Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.
David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.
Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.
Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.
Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.
They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?
Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start each day this year, so don't oversleep!
What else?
As well as those daily previews, we've a dedicated Cheltenham zone which you can access here. There you'll find the latest news and updates about the horses, trainers and jockeys associated with the Festival; full trends analysis from Andy Newton across the four days and 28 races; and links to the races themselves.
Gold subscribers will have access to pace maps, full form, video replay links, and our profiling tools, Instant Expert and Profiler. You can grab a weekly ticket for just £15 here.
Offers Galore
There will be offers galore throughout the week and one of the best chances to come out in front at the Cheltenham Festival is to press up any and all for which you're eligible. One of the very best that I'm aware of at this stage is Tote's 'Money Back as a Free Bet if Second' on all 28 races. So, for example, you could bet Kopek Des Bordes in the Supreme and get your stake reloaded if one horse beats him; or Brighterdaysahead in the Champion Hurdle and get a free bet if Constitution Hill does Constitution Hill things.
Obviously there will be races where your pick is neither first nor second, but this offer is one I'll be playing in almost all of the non-handicaps at least.
Geegeez' sister site, Tix, is a partner of Tote and I'm happy to mention their great deals for customers. If you don't yet have a tote account you can get one here. Then you'll be able to a) get their 'new account' goodness, b) play Tix and c) avail of the offer above.
N.B. You need to opt in to this offer which you can do from the 'Promotions' tab on tote's website.
Elsewhere, bet365 will have daily Super Boosts - one horse they think they can get beaten and on which they are prepared to offer a tempting price.
William Hill are offering players a free bet (stake varies) to use on Day 1.
And I expect all bookmakers to have something for at least some customers before Tuesday's action gets underway - so keep your eyes peeled.
Quick disclaimer: obviously, you need to read the terms and conditions for any offer you're wanting to avail of. Make sure to opt in where required, and only bet what you'd otherwise burn on beer, coffee or something else frivolous.
Daily Tix Competition: Win £100 each day!
If you're new around here, you may not know about Tix, a brilliant piece of tote multi-race software, I co-created. It basically allows for smarter perms on wagers such as the placepot, jackpot, Scoop 6, quadpot, and placepot 7. The short video below explains how it works:
We've teamed up with tote to offer a daily Tix competition across the four days of Cheltenham. You'll be entered when you place any Cheltenham multi-race bet through the Tix app, and there's £100 in cash each day to the player with the highest stake to return ratio.
What is a stake to return ratio? Well, it's basically the ticket odds, and it's a way of making the competition equally accessible to smaller and larger staking players.
Here are a couple of examples to illustrate how it will work:
Example 1: Ticket cost £1.20, ticket payout (return) £42.50
Stake to return ratio is 42.5/1.2 = 35.42
Example 2: Ticket cost £10, ticket payout (return) £180
Stake to return ratio is 180/10 = 18
In these scenarios, Example 2 returns more actual cash (£180 vs £42.50), and a bigger actual profit (£170 vs £41.30), than Example 1.
But Example 1 has the higher stake to return ratio (35.42 vs 18) and would therefore win the competition if these were the two entries.
A couple of rules.
In the event of a tie, the prize will be shared between all tied players. There are no tie breaker provisos.
Only bets placed via Tix on Cheltenham multi-race pools (placepot, jackpot, quadpot, Scoop6, placepot 7) will count.
The judge's (my) decision is final - I'm sure it won't come to that.
Prizes will be credited to winners' accounts on the morning following racing, e.g. Wednesday morning for Tuesday's winner(s).
What now?
Already on site, in our Cheltenham Festival Zone, are daily trends for all four days; some preview night notes and a further trends deep dive into the Gold Cup; a glut of latest news; and links to the 28 races. If you're a Gold or Lite subscriber, those races will have extra detail such as recent winners, pace maps, and form profiles. You can get Gold (or Lite) here.
I can't wait to get started!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/CheltenhamFestival_JLT_2019.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-07 09:14:172025-03-10 08:31:092025 Cheltenham Festival Prep
As I am penning this piece, the excitement for the upcoming Cheltenham Festival has gone up a further notch with the big days less than a week away, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will analyse some past Cheltenham race trends. Here on geegeez.co.uk we get specific race trends shared all year round with all the big races covered by Andy Newton. The Cheltenham Festival trends are available already for each day and can be accessed here.
Introduction
From 2007 to 2013 I wrote a weekly column on big race trends in the Racing & Football Outlook and over time got an excellent feel for which races suited past trends. Past race trends can be very good indicators of how a future race is likely pan out, and this is usually the case with the Cheltenham Festival. Many people use trends to help narrow down the field making the eventual selection process less daunting. If we can reasonably confidently eliminate say 50% of the field, then it drastically increases our chances of success. Obviously, there will be times when the race trends are ‘bucked’ where the winner does not fit the typical winner’s profile, but fortunately for many Cheltenham races this happens quite rarely.
For the main part of this piece, I will examine the last 20 renewals of the Gold Cup. I am going to first examine the ten Gold Cups held between 2005 and 2014 and then compare those findings with the Gold Cups from 2015 to 2024. After this I will be in a position to hopefully pick out the very strongest trends. I will also highlight some of the strongest trends from three other races at the meeting at the backend of the article.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
So let's look at the blue riband race, the Gold Cup. From 2005 to 2014 these were the most powerful trends:
2005-2014 Gold Cup Trends
Market Factors: 2005-14
5 winning favourites from 10.
9 out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced 9 winners from 36 runners (25%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced one winner from 107 (0.9%).
Last Race Factors: 2005-14
7 of the 10 winners won last time out (LTO). Those seven winners came from 44 qualifiers (15.9%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided three winners from 99 (3%).
All of the 10 winners came from one of three tracks – Leopardstown, Newbury or Kempton. This equates to 10 wins from 65 (15.4%). Other courses combined were 0/78 (0%).
All of the 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 103 runners (9.7%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 40 (0%).
Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced seven winners from 47 (14.9%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower were three wins from 96 (3.1%).
Other Factors: 2005-14
Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 37 (13.5%). Those with no previous Festival win were 5/106 (SR 4.7%).
Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced seven winners from 37 (18.9%); those rated 165 or less were 3/96 (3.1%).
In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 40 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7, 8 or 9.
Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced eight wins from 83 qualifiers (9.6%). Horses that had not scored that season won 2/60 (3.3%).
Conclusion: 2005-14
During this ten-year time frame, the Gold Cup was dominated by the front end of the betting market. 2014 was the outlier with a 20/1 winner in Lord Windermere and placed runners at 16/1 and 14/1. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+. All the winners came from either Kempton, Newbury or Leopardstown and all the winners were priced 8/1 or shorter on their previous start.
It was also preferable to have raced in Grade 1 company LTO, to have previously won at the Festival and to have won that season. In terms of age, it was best to avoid horses aged 10 or older.
*
Let's now compare the data from 2005 to 2014 with that for the most recent ten-year period, 2015-2024.
2015-2024 Gold Cup Trends
Market Factors: 2015-24
5 winning favourites from 10.
Seven out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting (nine came from the top four).
Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced eight winners from 40 runners (20%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced two winners from 88 (2.3%).
Last Race Factors: 2015-24
Eight of the 10 winners won LTO. Those eight winners came from 59 qualifiers (13.6%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided two winners from 69 (2.9%).
Five of the 10 winners raced at Leopardstown LTO from 42 qualifiers (11.9%); Newbury LTO produced two winners from 10 (20%). Kempton LTO runners produced 0 winners from 16 (0%). All other courses combined were three wins from 60 (5%).
All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/3 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 63 runners (15.9%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 65 (0%).
Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced five winners from 65 (7.7%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower had five wins from 63 (7.9%).
Othere Factors: 2015-24
Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 42 (11.9%). Those with no previous Festival win have scored five times from 86 (SR 5.8%).
Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced eight winners from 65 (12.3%); those rated 165 or less were two from 63 (3.2%).
In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 22 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7 or 8.
Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced all ten wins from 90 qualifiers (11.1%). Horses that had not previously won that season won 0 from 38 (0%).
Conclusion: 2015-2024
During this ten-year time frame, this race was once again dominated by the front end of the betting market. Five wins for favourites and nine of the ten winners were priced 8/1 or shorter at SP. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+, while a run at Leopardstown or Newbury LTO could be seen as a positive.
Previous Festival winners comfortably outperformed non Festival winners, while a win that season was paramount with all ten winners having that stat. An even stronger positive stat was horses priced 100/30 or less LTO as they produced all the winners from roughly 50% of the runners. Less horses aged 10yo+ took part during this time frame but once again they drew a blank.
*
The Gold Cup Comparison
Overall, the vast majority of the key trends from 2005 to 2014 were seen again between 2015 and 2024. The race has been strongly dominated by the more fancied runners. That includes ten winning favourites during the past 20 years, and backing all favourites would have yielded a profit to SP of £14.12 (ROI +70.6%).
Below is a graph mapping the market rank of all 20 winners:
This is a neat way of illustrating the front end of market dominance. 18 of the 20 winners have come from the top four in the betting so it looks best to concentrate there.
15 of the last 20 winners won LTO – this is a strong positive that has ‘held’ during both ten-year periods. Essentially, a LTO winner has been five times more likely to win the Gold Cup than a horse that failed to win LTO. The graph below shows the A/E indices for different LTO positions:
These indices are another indication as to why a last day win before the Gold Cup has been a strong positive.
Sticking with last time out factors, all 20 winners were 8/1 or shorter on their most recent start with the last ten being 100/30 or shorter. Horses priced LTO 17/2 or bigger are 0 from 55. Now it is important to note that the vast majority of these 55 losers were decent prices come the big day, but only three of the 55 placed so if we are looking for a big priced placer, which can happen, the trends suggest that we should steer clear of this subset.
A previous Festival win has been a positive in both time frames. Overall, a previous Festival winner has been 2.4 times more likely to prevail in the Gold Cup when compared with runners who had not previously won at the Festival.
Based on the success of the top end of the betting markets it should come as no surprise that higher rated horses have been the most successful. An OR of 166 or more has produced 15 of the winners – this equates to 75% of the winners coming from around 38% of the total runners.
The age dynamic in terms of older horses (those aged 10 or older) has remained constant with these runners failing to register a win since Cool Dawn in 1998. In terms of horses aged nine or younger the last ten years has seen a slight switch with 7 and 8yos winning nine of the renewals.
A previous win that season was a positive in both time frames and that should be something to look out for again this year.
There are, however, a couple of 2005-2014 trends that did not repeat between 2015 and 2024. The first is those horses that raced in a Grade 1 event LTO. In the first ten years it seemed a strong positive if a horse ran in the highest class possible LTO. During that spell, they were roughly five times more likely to win than horses that raced in a Grade 2 or lower LTO. Fast forward to the latest ten-year period and there has been parity between both groups with no edge to horses that raced in a Grade 1 contest LTO.
The second pattern that did not repeat was the LTO Kempton one. This was a positive from 2005-2014, but actually since 2012 no LTO Kempton runner has gone on to win the Gold Cup. This is partly due to the fact that most runners in the past have come from the Boxing Day meeting at Kempton straight to the Festival. Nowadays more horses seem to fit in another run between these two big meetings.
One area I have yet to look at in terms of this race is trainers, and specifically Irish trainers versus British trainers. I will fix that now!
From 2005 to 2014, just 15.5% of the runners in the Gold Cup were trained in Ireland. In contrast, from 2015 to 2024 this has increased to 48.4%. The Irish trainers have dominantly outperformed British trainers over both time frames in terms of overall win rate. The graph below illustrates this:
Irish trainers have maintained their strike rate and with far more runners in the 2015–2024-time frame, it means they have provided the winner eight times in the last ten years (and all of the last six). British trainers have really struggled in recent years.
Splitting the data into two ten-year time frames for this race has shown that this is a race where many of the strong past trends remain the same. Generally, Grade 1 races for experienced horses are good races from a past trends perspective. However, as we have seen there has been a change in a couple of the trends highlighted between the two decades. As punters we need to be aware that this can happen and obviously react accordingly. Patterns change over time but the Gold Cup retains some very solid looking patterns which for this year’s renewal should help to narrow down the field to a small group of the most likely winners.
**
I now want to pick out a few other races and highlight the very strongest past trends based on the last 20 years.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
This is the first race of the meeting, and the strongest trend is around LTO placing. Simply, we want to be looking for horses that won last time. They have provided 16 of the 20 winners from 145 runners for a break-even situation to SP (well a 48p profit to be precise). Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO have won 4 races from 173 runners for a loss of £108.50 (ROI -62.7%).
Not only that, we have had consistency in both 10-year groups with eight LTO winners from 2005-2014 and eight from 2015-2024. The win & placed (Each Way) percentages also strongly favour the LTO winners’ group. They have been over three times more likely to finish in the first three than horses that failed to win LTO.
Sticking with the win & placed theme, the graph below shows the consistency of performance of LTO winners when tackling the Supreme. I have grouped the LTO winners in five-year batches or groups to show their win & placed percentages in each period.
The percentages have not fluctuated much with most five-year groups around the 30% mark. Clearly, for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, we should be focusing our attention on LTO winners. Of course, a non-LTO winner may be successful this year as was the case last year, when Slade Steel won the race. However, the LTO 1st stats/trends are strongly in our favour.
Champion Hurdle
The Champion hurdle is the highlight of the first day and one recent trend that stands out is concerned with unbeaten horses that season. All of the last ten winners fitted that profile, and there were only 18 horses that qualified under that rule going back to 2015. This equates to a 55.6%-win strike rate. In the previous ten years there were also 18 qualifiers, but only three won. Having said that, from 2005 to 2014 horses unbeaten in that season were still three times more likely to win compared to horses that had lost at least once in the season.
As with the Supreme, last day winners are far more likely to win than those that failed to win LTO, amassing 17 successes from 101 runners (16.8%), and an A/E index 1.01 for LTO winners, compared to 3 wins from 134 (2.2%), A/E 0.45 for non-winners. In terms of the ten-year splits, 2005-2014 saw seven wins for LTO winners, 2015-2004 saw all ten wins.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
This staying novice event is run on Gold Cup day and has one trend that has shifted dramatically in the last ten years. Let us look at the last 20 winners and their SPs:
The table neatly shows the difference between the ten years from 2005 to 2014 and those from 2015 to 2024 when it comes to the winning SPs. In the first ten-year period (lower half of the table) eight of the ten winners were priced in single figures with four favourites prevailing. In the most recent ten-year period nine of the ten winners were double figure prices and no favourite won.
The profit and loss figures for single figure priced runners during the two-time frames could not be more contrasting:
This type of switch-up reminds us once more that patterns and trends can change and that we cannot solely put our faith in all trends from past races. As punters we need to be aware that many trends will remain constant while a handful will not. Being able to adapt is part of what helps to make a punter successful over time.
Also, we are dealing with a smallish number of past races which again can seem to make trends fluctuate from time to time, whereas sometimes it was simply that the pattern was coincidence in the first place: we need to use skill and judgement to decide what is a trend and what is an accident of fate. Looking for reasons to justify a trend is a very good starting point in that regard.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/CheltenhamGoldCup2022_Preview.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2025-03-06 12:05:052025-03-08 16:26:49Looking at Past Cheltenham Festival Trends
In front of a full house of keen racing fans, London Racing Club's brains trust assembled.
They were Lydia Hislop (LH), Matt Tombs (MT), Jamie Benson (JB), and maintaining order, Lee Mottershead (LM).
What follows are the notes I managed to make from their thoughts.
Tuesday
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
LH: Kopek des Bordes (KdB) will have to replicate his last race form. Bit edgy, and Supreme a test of temperament. By far the best horse in the field on what we've seen. Karbau is talented, each way or without favourite.
MT: KdB at DRF was a 'wow' race but a little worried about the preliminaries at Cheltenham. Won’t shorten much in the minutes before the race so that’s the time to bet him. Workahead e/w: Don't know his level of form but his last race has worked out, he did it well and is unexposed.
JB: At the prices want to take on KdB. Workahead Christmas form looks strong.
Arkle
MT: Majborough "most likely winner of the week." Might be a very small field.
JB: Maj looks "bar a fall."
LH: Maj very likely winner. L'Eau de Sud opposable. Second best form is Touch Me Not if he runs here. Would quite like to see Only By Night in here, too.
Mares' Hurdle
MT: "My source has been backing Lossiemouth for Mares ante post". But what sort of form is she in after that fall last time? If she doesn't run, I'm against Jade de Grugy. Instead, split stakes between Golden Ace (Kingwell form is good) and Kala Conti. They went quickly last time, and KC, close to the pace, hung tough conceding weight to July Flower.
LH: Lossie is miles clear on form. JdG is a player. KC ran great against the pace at DRF and is perhaps the value.
Champion Hurdle
LH: Brilliant race prospect. Constitution Hill cannot be "better than ever", but his near best might be enough. Brighterdaysahead will be a tough challenger, might drift on the day, and she’s backable if she does.
JB: Constitution Hill is "your absolute made in a test tube" Champion Hurdler. Price would dictate whether CH or BDA is the bet.
MT: Believe Nicky Henderson will have left plenty to work on and expect CH to improve notably. The "vibes" feels like he's back close to his best. You can have close to Evens and that might look a very big price teatime on Tuesday.
"Shoulder Races"
JB:Fred Winter - Outforastroll/Holy See race is high-class form, interesting; Murcia also interesting here. Ultima - Farouk d'Alene (100/1 shot), small throwaway bet. NH Chase - Will Do weighted to go well and this should suit.
LH:Ultima - Farouk d'Alene does have latent ability, but Whistle Stop Tour from Lucinda Russell factory. Novice, strong stayer, form solid. No view in Fred Winter but like Gericault Roque in the NH Chase.
Wednesday
Turners Novices' Hurdle
MT: Turn of foot usually needed rather than stamina, but theory might not hold up this year. Potters Charm form may not be strong enough. Suspect Final Demand might gun forward. Think Irish form is stronger than the British. The New Lion form might be overrated. Perhaps The Yellow Clay is the one: felt he quickened and then got tired at Naas last time.
LH: Really like Final Demand, but a quick ground steadily run Turners might not suit ideally. Good stayer. In steadily run race, TNL a better option but TYC is a value play against both.
JB: TYC pick of top three, but James's Gate, rated 135, would normally be exploited by Martin Brassil in a handicap. Bit of a tip perhaps.
Brown Advisory
JB: Taking on Ballyburn and Dancing City with Croke Park. Dual Grade 1 winner, outpaced over 2m5f last time.
MT: Don’t think Ballyburn will stay, he's opposable - DC very likeable but might be vulnerable to a better turn of foot. Betterdaysahead will be annoying if he wins. At big prices, Gorgeous Tom is interesting, as to a lesser degree is Asian Master stepping up a mile in trip.
LH: On instinct, thought Ballyburn might be a very good 3-miler. Ground might not be that testing and Wednesday likely to be quickest turf. Poor value but likely winner. Elsewhere, Betterdaysahead is a proper stayer. Can see Gorgeous Tom argument.
Queen Mother Champion Chase (QMCC)
MT: Jonbon good enough to win a CC but overall not sure. Feel he’s 3 or 4lb less good at Cheltenham. Deep enough race - Gaelic Warrior, Marine Nationale, Energumene, Solness. Last named is fascinating, could be "this year’s Flooring Porter". Was going quick at DRF and quickened again when MN came to him. Against MN. 40/1 NRNB Qulixios thumped MN first time up this season; if he turns up he's got a win chance, never mind e/w.
LH: Jonbon is at his absolute peak this season. I don't buy the theory that he needs to go right-handed; rather, I feel that's a function of most of the British two-mile Grade 1's being run on right-handed tracks. So it's coincidence. His Cheltenham runs can all be excused: too aggressively ridden vs. Constitution Hill in the Supreme; beaten by an on-song El Fabiolo in Arkle (but he’s gone on from his novice form and El Fab hasn’t); seasonal debuts for Shloer so unlikely at peak (though his 2023 win is not far off his upper efforts); and in a holding pattern when a nervier type than he is now in rerouted 2024 Clarence House when also ridden sub-optimally by new rider. Lots of shorties have been beaten in the Champion Chase and I don't really want to bet him (or lay him!) Gaelic Warrior might have an issue in his throat (rumour) but would need it wet anyway. Found A Fifty might be overpriced. Suited to quickish ground. Energumene might be a backable price on the day with so many naysayers on the circuit.
JB: MN looks reasonable on his Supreme win. Blood Destiny crying out for a fast run two mile race.
Cross Country Chase
MT: Believe top weights will continue to dominate as they did when the race was a limited handicap previously. Galvin looks a fantastic bet. "Feel he should almost be an even money job"!
"Shoulders"
LH: Touch Me Not - Grand Annual.
JB: The Other Mozzie - Grand Annual. Bet of the Day is Colonel Mustard at 33/1 in Coral Cup.
Thursday
Ryanair Chase
LH: Il Est Francais will take them along, Protektorat in second, but it's a deeper race this year than last when Protek won.
MT: Could make a case for Djelo.
Stayers' Hurdle
JB: Most vulnerable favourite of the shorties is Teahupoo. Ga Law could run well at a massive price.
LH: It's become trendy to knock Teahupoo. Might end up a fair price. Expecting ground to be softer than predicted (watering).
MT: Traditionally a Teahupoo fan. But got a bit twitchy since. If he drifts, he might be a bet, but he’s short enough at the moment. Lucky Place is an improving 6yo with form that has worked out well. Just about the only progressive horse in the race. Looks very solid e/w.
"Shoulders"
JB: Nine Graces, Kim Muir - "Bet of the Day." Idem in the Pertemps worth a look.
MT: FeetofaDancer in Pertemps has a similar look to Paul Nolan's winner, Mrs Milner.
LH: Git Maker and Aworkinprogress interesting wherever they run. Galileo Dame in the Dawn Run if she goes there. Also Air Of Entitlement in that race might be ovoerpriced.
Friday
Gold Cup
LH: Galopin Des Champs just wins, doesn't he? Can win off any pace, on any ground. Monty's Star has upside: improved from a moderate start to season and given an end-to-end gallop he’s interesting. Don’t think Banbridge will stay.
MT: Think GDC will win, really hope he wins. But if there’s one horse who might do him for speed, it’s Banbridge, who definitely has a squeak. Want GDC to have a race rather than a procession. If Monty's shortens in the betting, that could be noteworthy e/w.
Triumph Hurdle
JB: East India Dock is hard to oppose. Nicky Henderson saying Palladium and Lulamba are tough to separate. So Palladium might be value. Slight worry that EID may not find enough up the hill.
MT: EID is miles the best horse on form and is overpriced even at 2/1. But how good are the Irish juveniles? 9 of the last 12 Triumph winners came from Dublin Racing Festival Spring Juvenile, only three won there. From that race, Hello Neighbour is 5/1, Galileo Dame 16/1 but there's not that much between them.
LH: "Palladium jumps like an entire!" EID has by far the best form and should be shorter.
Albert Bartlett
LH: Not got handle on this race. Wingmen seems fairly solid. TYC credible if he came here.
JB: Wingmen been crying out for a lead and this is exactly the sort of race he wants.
MT: Jet Blue won the best UK trial. Could drift and would be backable if he did. Argento Boy is a "now" horse. Has been a bit clueless but won easily last time in a nothing race. Paul Townend could pick this lad over Jasmin de Vaux.
"Shoulders"
JB: Woodhooh- Martin Pipe, happy Kopek de Mee goes here because he makes the price on anything else you fancy! Kargese - County, needs faster pace, which she’ll get here. Dangerous off 145.
LH: Strong on Kargese in County.
MT: Really like Woodhooh. Also Lark In The Mornin in County. Ryehill (Hunter Chase) is a big horse, makes mistakes but has bundles of talent.
NAPS / CHARITY BETS
JB: E/W Colonel Mustard - Coral Cup
LH: Whistle Stop Tour - Ultima
LM: Absurde - County
MT: Galvin - Cross Country
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/LRC_Chelto_2023.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-06 09:19:192025-03-06 11:37:18London Racing Club Cheltenham Preview Night 2025 Notes
As has become somewhat customary, I've taken a few moments to publicly critique the wagering positions from which I stood to gain or lose during that marvellous week of racing action, the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.
It won't be interesting to everyone, perhaps only to very few, and I publish not to boast/wallow (*delete annually as applicable) but to share my own lessons learned from this most immersive of punting processes. As ever, stakes are irrelevant - many bet more than me, many bet less, whatever; the key is how the journey went and, to a much lesser degree, what the destination looked like.
If that makes little sense, now is a good time to plug into the below. [Usual reminder that I speak kinda slowly, so feel free to use the little 'cog' icon bottom right to increase the playback speed to something more acceptable for your lugs].
Below the video are a few screen grabs of various bets just to show when they were placed (many at the time of publication of the posts in which they were nominated as suggestions). And if you want to review the previews, as it were, I've linked to those right here:
For those of you of a notably vicarious disposition, here are some slips...
The Good
A lot of the good stuff for me - in fact, pretty much all of the good stuff - happened in the novice hurdles this year. Slade Steel (Supreme), Ballyburn (Gallagher), Majborough (Triumph) and Stellar Story (Albert Bartlett) basically were the profit side of the ledger.
Stellar Story was, well, just that, especially as Gavin also tipped him on the preview. He returned a Betfair SP of 46, so I didn't get the value here - maybe it should go in the 'bad' section...
Plus Captain Guinness, who really only expunged the El Floppiolo entry (see The Ugly below)...
A saver on Jade de Grugy to place (see The Bad below)...
And Limerick Lace, an alliterative late lump of lustre on the ledger...
The Bad
Not bad in value terms, more like bad beats - though of course those wily bookie chaps usually know what they're about. I was lucky that Jade was the final leg (excluding WPM and Prestbury Cup which were nigh on certs) which made it hedgeable. Got a profit overall by laying Jade for a place - see above.
Nowhere to go with this, and I didn't even do the smart thing and back Absurde (who finished fourth behind these three last time out, and won the County Hurdle at 12/1, 15.5 BSP) for a couple of quid.
The Ugly
And this was an ugly one. Actually, only in terms of its predictable outcome was it disfigured; the double (2/5 and 2/9) paid 8/11 come the hour, and I'd secured 11/10 so it was a value play. As can be seen, I cashed a slice out when I first got a wobble about it; and as referenced in the video I hedged a little back, too, so it probably wasn't as ugly as I was thinking.
Doing debriefs can be very cathartic! [And absolutely objectifies what can be misguided subjective perspectives on the ledger - definitely worth your time to fill out the spreadie in my view]
Summary
Overall, it was a brilliant week from a sporting perspective though I (and I'm sure most readers) really felt for Nicky Henderson. That said, it's a strong case for making hay while the sun shines: the singular focus on the Festival is unhealthy and, when the horses are, erm, unhealthy during that week in March, there's no Plan B. Hoping at least some of those good horses will show up at Aintree and/or Punchestown.
Punting wise, for yours true it was very good - and a rarity to get quids on 'Give Back Friday'. This year, it was the bookies giving back to me. Nice. Normal service is expected to resume on Friday 14th March 2025.
Until then...
Matt
p.s. how was Cheltenham for you? Best sporting moment? Best bet / worst bad beat? Leave a comment and let us know.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/275624968-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2024-03-18 08:47:552024-03-18 08:47:55My 2024 Cheltenham Festival Betting P&L
It's been a weird, and occasionally unsatisfying, week with the abandonment of the Cross Country Chase and the lamentable early showings - and subsequent withdrawals - of Nicky Henderson's star players. But here we are, three down one to go and buoyed for a crack at the Foxhunters Gold Cup. If you're behind at this point, the good news is there is still time; the bad news is this is 'Give Back Friday'...
1.30 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Although Nicky has had to pull most of his star players, he does - at time of writing, Wednesday morning - still plan to run Sir Gino, strong Triumph Hurdle favourite heretofore but now drifting like The Drifters aboard the Kon-Tiki. Let's consider his form credentials before getting bogged down in the health of the yard. Unbeaten in three, Sir Gino was considered smart enough to debut in a Listed contest at Auteuil. Sent off at bigger than 20/1 on the Paris nanny, he scored by a bit less than two lengths.
Subsequently transferred to Seven Barrows, the first thing they did was give him a wind op (well, it probably wasn't the first thing, but you know what I mean). His breathing facilitated, he scooted up by half the track in a decent Kempton Introductory Hurdle; and he then buried the Burdett Road dream by bashing that one ten lengths in a Grade 2 on the Old course here. His form is miles clear of the rest of the home team, but that bug in the Henderson yard makes it very difficult to accept a shortish price.
That's all the more true when you see what Willie's bringing to the party. Perhaps Majborough will be the pick of his, perhaps he won't; but in time he very well might be, according to 'the vibes'. In any case, his close soft ground third to stablemate Kargese in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle on first start for over a year - he'd run as a three-year-old at Auteuil on 2nd April 2023 - was expected to blow away the cobwebs and it surely did.
Willie ran five in that race, Majborough only third choice in the betting, and the two ahead of him in the market filled the first two slots home. They were led by second favourite that day, Kargese, who looks a smart filly. Always prominent, she wasn't always fluent, but ran on well in a first time hood. She'll keep that pacifier on here and will again take on Majborough and the second from the Spring, Storm Heart. This ex-French flat horse won a maiden by 22 lengths before his G1 second, and he too retains plenty of upside. It is noteworthy that he's the choice of Paul Townend.
Willie ran five in the Spring Juvenile, and he saddles - wait, let me count them - sEvEn here! Seven. Out of the 14. I mean, what? As with the bumper, there's a chance he doesn't know the pecking order; but unlike the bumper, he's won this with his first string three times in the last four years. That points to Majborough in spite of having to turn the tables with both Kargese and Storm Heart. He's clearly held in high regard.
A quick whizz through the other four Willies - Bunting was fourth in the Spring Juvenile, only a bit more than two lengths behind the winner, and is another who on form could come out in front this time; Ethical Diamond was sixth there, and has five lengths to find - still not impossible; and High Wind was eighth at Leopardstown and ostensibly has plenty on to get past any of the aforementioned Mullins mob.
Meanwhile, Salvator Mundi hasn't run for eleven months since claiming argent at Auteuil in another Listed race. But here's the thing: he was second to none other than Sir Gino! The pair of them pulled ten clear of the third placed horse and, while Sir Gino, was value for a little more than 1 3/4 length margin, that obviously still makes Salvator Mundi 'live' in here if he's fit after that long layoff.
Nurburgring is quite battle hardened but I'm not sure his form with Kala Conti is quite as strong as some of the Closutton collective, or that he has the upside of them.
Back in Blighty, Salver has been winning and winning. He served up (geddit?!) in the G2 Finale at Chepstow having already won his two prior hurdles in lower class; then he won the Victor Ludorum at Haydock. A feature of his most recent brace of scores was very wet underfoot, so conditions ought not to be a concern - whether he's as good as the Irish and/or Sir Gino remains a concern!
I'm struggling to make cases for the rest, though Peking Opera was a very good flat horse and Ithaca's Arrow ploughed through the Newbury mud last time (he also ploughed through quite a few of the hurdles). Fratas has been off for a long time. And I backed Mighty Bandit a long time ago at a shorter price than he is now. He's moved from Elliott to Greatrex and has a clunk last time on his scorecard, though he was clearly wrong that day. He's a lot harder to fancy for that water under the bridge since my guessy ante post voucher, but he did look very good on his first hurdling start.
Triumph Hurdle Pace Map
Bound to be pacey early, with something from the Willie phalanx locking horns most probably with Salver and perhaps Fratas.
Triumph Hurdle Selection
Very tricky in light of the issues surrounding the jolly. He can't possibly be a bet as things stand, which makes punting a guess up. Paul Townend has ridden the three recent Mullins winners, but Mark Walsh is retained by JP McManus for Majborough. Townend rides Storm Heart and that one could be a bit of each way value in a race where there's not a lot between many of them. I'd love to see Salver win.
Suggestion: Try Storm Heart each way at 11/1 or so.
I was a bit miffed when Dan Skelton (handicap genius or barefaced cheat – you decide) said he was going to miss the County Hurdle with 2023 winner Faivoir as I’d availed myself of some 28/1 ante-post on the basis of his eye-catching run in the Betfair Hurdle when fifth behind Iberico Lord. Stablemate L’Eau du Sud was runner-up that day and Skelton seemed adamant that the latter would carry his hopes in the County.
I was even more miffed when, hoping to cash in, I napped Faivoir in the Imperial Cup only to see him beaten a nose by Go Dante. He’s clearly well handicapped, and Skelton has decided to let him run again. I thought initially that this sounded like a bad-beat declaration, but my friend Mr Massey mentioned the stable’s record when turning runners out quickly in handicaps. Naturally, I headed over to geegeez.co.uk (pint please, Matt) to double check.
True enough, Skelton’s record with quick turnarounds is excellent with two wins and a second in the last two years from just seven runners, including Heltenham’s 17/2 score at Newbury recently. Looking back further his figures are even better for hurdlers alone with five winners from 12 runners turned out less than a week from a previous start. That’s enough to make Faivoir interesting again even if he did have a hard race at Sandown and presumably he won’t run if there are signs he’s not fully recovered.
L’Eau du Sud ran a stormer in the Betfair and while the form was let down by the winner in the Champion Hurdle, I think we all know that the Henderson lurgy was responsible for that, and ditto Betfair fourth Doddiethegreat’s late capitulation in the Coral Cup. The form of that race is clearly strong, as it always is, and the only negative about L’Eau du Sud is the price, with every man and his dog having hitched on to the Skelton bandwagon.
The other good trial for this race is the 2m Listed handicap hurdle at the DRF which this year was won by Lord Erskine from Magical Zoe and Zenta with a number of horses taken out of the race in what we affectionately refer to as a “shemozzle” at the penultimate flight. One of those brought down was Bialystock, who was travelling well and improving on the inner at the time. I think that trio are all of interest, and while a 7lb rise for the first two seems a little harsh at first glance, Bialystock is only 1lb higher and that also makes him of interest here.
Both Zenta and Magical Zoe were relatively handily placed off the turn, and out of trouble wide on the track, but it’s possible that both went slightly too early as 50/1 winner Lord Erskine was produced very late to swamp them from the final hurdle. One can knock the form because of the odds of the winner, but I think it’s very solid and Lord Erskine came in for a really well judged ride, finding the best of the ground wide on the track and delaying his challenge until late.
In short, there is nothing between Magical Zoe and Zenta on Leopardstown form and the pair can be expected to play a big part in the finish if held on to for slightly longer, while Bialystock is weighted to beat them if you take the view that he would have finished off as strongly as he travelled there. On that point, Ruby Walsh feels that Bialystock needs a fairly sharp 2m to show his best given he’s very speedy and was concerned about the stiff 2m1f here when I mentioned Bialystock as a County possibility. That’s a warning worth heeding but he still merits his place on the list.
Of the others King of Kingsfield and Absurde were third and fourth behind Ballyburn and Slade Steel and are of obvious interest dropping into a handicap from that Grade 1 contest which has thrown up two impressive winners in the big novice hurdles this week. Both are worthy of consideration, but both are also well found already in the market.
County Hurdle Pace Map
Another almost guaranteed quick pace though it's not clear from where the early dash will emerge. Aucunrisque looks a likely but Westport Cove is the only other to have led in its most recent three spins. A handful of others led four back. I still reckon it'll be quick but could be wrong as I don't know who goes on!
County Hurdle Selection
In terms of the final call, price will be crucial, and the favourite is a tad short now for all he could ease on the day. Faivoir is 16/1 in a couple of places which is very fair given the stats quoted above and his attractive mark, while even Ruby’s words don’t completely put me off Bialystock after his eye-catching run at Leopardstown.
Suggestion: Try Faivoir at 16/1 and/or Bialystock at 11/1 each way with as many extra places as you can find.
2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.
All of the last 14 winners had their last run over 2m3f-3m 1/2f.
All of the last 14 winners had their last run in the previous 26-90 day period.
12 of the last 13 winners had finished top 3 last time out.
All of the last 12 winners with an official rating were rated 136+.
9 of the last 10 winners returned 11/1 or bigger.
12 of the last 13 winners had raced 7 or fewer times over hurdles.
12 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7yo.
11 of the last 14 winners had won at 2m4 1/2f+.
11 of the last 14 winners had their last start in Graded company (8 in a Grade 2).
10 of the last 14 winners were Irish Bred.
9 of the last 14 winners finished Top 3 in a Graded hurdle last time out.
8 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded hurdle previously.
4 of the last 14 winners returned 33/1 or bigger.
3 of the last 14 winners had raced 15 or more times in their career.
Willie Mullins had 22 straight losers between 2010-2016 but has now won 3 of the last 7.
8 of the last 12 winners had won an Irish PTP.
4 of the last 9 winners wore a tongue tie.
All 6 female runners have finished unplaced.
Only 1 of the last 13 winners had their last race in a handicap (27 such runners).
The sire Oscar has 2 wins and 3 places from 16 runners since the races inception.
The Grade 2 Lyons Of Limerick Jaguar Land Rover Novice Hurdle is a decent Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle trial given that the 2015, 2017 and 2021 Albert Bartlett winners had all taken part in the race prior to winning at Cheltenham, while Fury Road (third by a neck in the 2020 Albert Bartlett) had won that trial back in 2019. This Season's winner, Loughlynn, had looked a progressive horse prior to this win but has been pulled up since in a Grade 1 and gives the race a miss. The runner up at Limerick is here though and Gordon Elliott's 7yo STELLAR STORY looks just the type to go well in this.
A winning Irish pointer who is also a two time NH Flat winner, from three starts, he beat Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter on his third bumper start which is cracking form, that pair subsequently doing very well in Grade 1 company over hurdles and the former running third in Gallagher Novices' Hurdle on Wednesday. Stellar Story won first time up over hurdles this season and was then done for pace against a couple of speedier types in a Grade 2 at Navan over 2m4f at the start of December. He was then second in that Limerick Grade 2 Hurdle before staying on late in 4th in the big 2m6f Grade 1 Novice at the Leopardstown Festival a couple of weeks ago. I think he's crying out for this step up to 3 miles and the form of that NH flat race at Naas last February has worked out really well. He ticks all the boxes for Cheltenham, has form on soft ground and given the history of outsiders running well in this race I'm certainly not put off by his price. I like his chances a lot.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Quick, and attritional, as it usually is in 'the potato race'. Giggy may get jiggy on the lead, with some help from Wiggie Willie.
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. A Gold Cup shorn of one of its stars as Shishkin has succumbed to the mystery ailment afflicting Seven Barrows in recent days, but of course the show must go on. We still have the champ, Galopin Des Champs, back to defend a crown he acquired with a seven length beating of Bravemansgame twelve months ago.
Galopin was subsequently beaten not once but twice - either side of his seasonal break - by perrenial rival Fastorslow, before exacting revenge last time in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival. It is widely assumed that that finishing order will be maintained, but the market has arguably over-stated that. Regardless, GdC looks on top of his game and his top form is the best in the race. He's a logical and worthy favourite.
Fastorslow has a few less notches on his bedpost, and had something of a bridesmaid look having run up to Corach Rambler in the Ultima last term and also been second in the Coral Cup the year before. He's since, erm, 'got married' (note to self, don't start analogies that will go nowhere) twice in Grade 1 company before that reverse at the hands of Galopin. [*trying desperately to crowbar in the old joke: "I've got two wives, do you think that's bigamy?" "I think that's very big of you!" - there, I did it, apols also for that]
Getting back on track, Bravemansgame was just that one spot away from winning the Blue Riband a year ago, and he's having another crack now. Why wouldn't he? Since then, he's had more seconds than a minute, running up to Gentlemansgame, Royale Pagaille, and Hewick respectively. The most recent was in the King George and that, again, is top form, albeit in defeat. Soft ground would hold no fears though he's unproven on heavy bar a Listed bumper flop at Ascot way back in 2019; that shouldn't be over-factored.
Staying with Team GB, L'Homme Presse will surely be a different dude this time from the shadow of himself that showed up in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase: never put in the race that day (pocket talk, sigh) he finished well enough over a clearly inadequate trip. Lest we forget, he was the 2022 Brown Advisory winner and though I didn't like it at the time, that was a belting prep for this.
Most of Gerri Colombe's best form has been on a sounder surface - Grade 1 Mildmay, Grade 1 Scilly Isles - but he's also got G1 verdicts on soft and soft to heavy. He was duffed up by Galopin Des Champs at Christmas, beaten 23 lengths there, and we've not seen him since. That'd be a worry for me although he's obviously a very talented chap at his best.
And then there's the fairytale ownership story that is Hewick. Bought for £12.50 (or thereabouts), he's won a bet365 Gold Cup, a Galway Plate, an American Grand National, an Oaksey Chase, and a King George. And the Durham National! Wowzers. And he actually cost €850. Just incredible - good luck to those very, very, very lucky owners and the astonishing journey this horse has taken them on. But can he win a Gold Cup?
Well, the answer to can he win a Durham Nash was probably 'no', as it was to 'can he win xyz other big race?', so let's break with that errant tradition and say, yes, he can win a Gold Cup. Whether he will or not is another question entirely. He jumps well and he stays very well so those are great credentials, as is his obvious will to battle and win, but there is a rather large fly in the ointment. ALL of his best form is on quick ground. It will not be that here, "and so I'm out" (said in my most earnest Deborah Meaden voice).
Ground would be a small niggle for Corach Rambler, too. Yes, he won a four runner novice hurdle on heavy back yon, but he will have outclassed his rivals there; and yes, he won the Ultima on soft last season. I actually really like him as a 'running on' play - maybe a place lay to back, or some such - and if I can get four places I'm bound to back him for a little bit. Because he's actually very good. Two wins here in the Ultima and a Grand National triumph tell us that; and he's surely had his mark managed as far as possible hitherto this campaign with a view to a repeat National bid. Those shackles now off he'll bring his A game here.
I can't have any of the rest. FishcakeMonkfish has been fragile and largely absent since his brilliant novice chase season, failing to win in three starts since; it's tough to envisage that streak being broken on his fourth go, in the Gold Cup. Nassalam does love the mud - he blitzed them in the Welsh National on heavy - so if it was a really, really wet day he'd enter minor calculations. Former Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker has been missing since and isn't for me; and while I respect everything Henry de B runs at the Festival, even I'm having a hard time magicking a case for Jungle Boogie.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
Quite a tough one to call pace wise, with a feature of most of the runners being their run style versatility. Galopin Des Champs has led in small fields the last twice but might take a lead here, while the Games - Bravemans and Gentlemans - could also get an early call. Should be a good even gallop and may the best horse win.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection
It might be that Galopin Des Champs just wins or that, if he doesn't, Fastorslow does. I'll probably do that 'no brainer' exacta which will pay 5/1 or so. But I kind of like L'Homme Presse as a sleeper in the field and he'll be my each way play. Lower down, Corach Rambler will be running on and can hit the extended frame; and if it's very wet - it might be! - Nassalam could surprise a few.
Suggestion: Try a little on L'Homme Presseeach way, and perhaps Corach Rambler(not too wet) or Nassalam(biblical rainfall) with as many places as you can get. But, obviously, no surprise whatsoever if the top of the market outclasses them.
4.10 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)
Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk.
As ever I will begin with a look at a few general race trends:
Ten year-old’s have won six of the last ten renewals of the race – six winners from 47 runners +130.63, 12 placed with the A/E=1.86.
Nine of the last ten winners have been aged 10 or 11.
Favourites are three winners from ten runners -0.24, six placed. But five winners were returned between 16/1 & 66/1.
Eight of the last ten winners had won between 2m7f and 3m2½f.
There have been a number of repeat winners of this race, with Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder enjoying back-to-back successes since 2012.
To the form and the first thing you notice is the number of declared runners. This year’s renewal has attracted just a dozen hunters. 23 ran last year and the race average since 2008 is 22.75. Hopefully it’s a case of quality rather than quantity but I suppose it may also say a lot about the direction of travel of the hunter chase game.
I'll admit that if Matt hadn't asked me to preview the race, I probably wouldn't have given it much attention. However, I'm glad I did because despite the small field, I believe it could be an interesting contest.
Ferns Lock, Its On The Line, Premier Magic, and Samcro all share the top spot on official ratings.
Ferns Lock, although making his first appearance at Cheltenham, is a proficient jumper and a strong traveller. If he manages to stay the extended 3m2f distance, he's the most likely winner, although that's not certain given his racing style.
Its On The Line, recently acquired by JP McManus and trained by Emmet Mullins, boasts a solid record with three consecutive wins in hunter chases. He battled to victory over one of today's rivals, Billaway, in his last outing at Naas and is a strong stayer who could challenge Ferns Lock on the run-in.
Premier Magic secured victory in last year's race and followed up with another win at Cheltenham in May. Although he held off Its On The Line by 1¾ lengths last year, the latter has gained experience since then, and Premier Magic might find it tougher to repeat his success.
Samcro has shown revitalised form in point-to-point races, winning four times between October and November. While he might struggle against the likes of Ferns Lock and Its On The Line, he can't be completely discounted.
Billaway, winner of this race in 2022, fell twelve months ago but showed promise in his recent runner-up finish at Naas. Although his jumping isn't as polished as some of his rivals, his staying power keeps him in the mix.
Quintin’s Man found 2m6f an inadequate stamina test when 3rd of eight at Haydock last month. He won a course and distance hunter chase here last May so the return to today’s trip appears more suitable. He’s going the right way but would need to improve plenty to trouble the principles.
Sine Nomine delivered an improved performance to win a heavy ground hunter chase at Wetherby last month. The mare is now three from five under Rules and, whilst she needs to improve again to even get into the places, she might be capable of doing so.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map
The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. As such, it's not to be trusted for all that it implies a fair gallop set by one or both of Billaway and Ferns Lock with possibly 14yo Shantou Flyer wanting a piece, too, if he can keep up!
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection
The battle seems to be between Ferns Lock and Its On The Line. If Ferns Lock conserves his energy early on, he’s the most likely winner, but Its On The Line is a strong finisher. Premier Magic, last year's winner, can't be dismissed, and for those seeking a value bet, Sine Nomine will hopefully be available at decent each-way odds.
That's a wrap for me. I've thoroughly enjoyed sharing my race previews with you, and I hope you've found them enjoyable and informative. Until next time, happy racing!
Suggestion: Try Ferns Lock to win at 11/4 and/or Sine Nomine each way at 16/1 or bigger.
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Ah, the Mares' Chase. An 'after the Lord Mayor's Show' of a race if ever there was. Or maybe 'After the Lord Mares' Show'. Perhaps not. Let's get on with it, shall we?
It's 20/1 bar four and that's mainly because Dinoblue, even money, is in the field. Her form in front of Gentleman De Mee and closest to El Fabiolo the last twice is the best by a margin; but she's only run once at this twenty furlong range, a ten length fourth in a Fairyhouse G1 novice hurdle. She kept on that day, and doubts about stablemate Lossiemouth's stamina for a similar step up were unambiguously dispelled on Tuesday. She'll probably win - she's a really smart mare.
But what if she doesn't stay? In such a scenario, Gavin Cromwell may hold the key. He runs two, Limerick Lace and Brides Hill. Limerick Lace handles soft and heavy ground, stays very well (keeping on second in the three mile Thyestes Chase) and bolted up in a Listed mares' race at this trip in Doncaster last time. I'm not convinced she's quick enough but I'm certain she'll handle conditions.
Brides Hill is on a four-timer, and she looks a trip specialist. She, too, has soft ground form, though not heavy ground form, and she's had a lot of races. She'd not be near the top of my list.
Another with conditions in her corner is Allegorie De Vassy, twice a winner on heavy in her last three starts, both in Listed company. She finished second in this last year and may again have to settle for minor honours, though she probably will go close.
Making a case for anything else is probably folly, but at a massive price Marsh Wren is better suited to conditions than most. Still a novice, she's a winner of eight of 13 starts, three of four in chases, and went to Ireland to beat some of their Listed class mares last time. She has a chunk to find on the book but goes from the front and will, as they say, "give a bold sight".
Mares' Chase Pace Map
This should be a proper test at the trip which may or may not find out the best mare in the field. Kestrel Valley and Marsh Wren, along with Dinoblue's stablemate, Instit (pronounced Ansty, apparently), will be the trailblazers.
Mares' Chase Selection
Dinoblue has to show she stays, and she might. If we knew she did, she wouldn't be evens, I guess, but I still don't like that price given the unanswered question. Limerick Lace is probably quite solid for all that she's probably quite slow (might be what's needed if it's wet) and Allegorie De Vassy is another the market (and I) expect(s) to be on the premises. If you want to go mad - we might need to by this point - Marsh Wren without the favourite, could sneak a minor placing.
Suggestion: I'm going to try to get Dinoblue beaten, which will be a waste of time if she stays. In that context, back Limerick Lace to win at 9/2.
Previewed by David Massey. This year’s Martin Pipe is a slightly strange affair, with a less compressed look to the handicap than is normally the case. It tends to be a 0-145 handicap where the bottom in is usually around the low 130’s but this time around you’ve a few below that mark and bottom weight Russian Ruler, for the not-in-form Nicky Henderson (it has to turn, doesn’t it?), is rated just 122.
The lowest rating for anything winning this in the last decade is 135, and most of the unexposed ones that tend to do well in the race are 130+, and I think we’ll find the winner there.
Ocastle Des Mottes is one of the Willie Mullins plots for this and he has a touch of the Galopins about him. The future Gold Cup winner had been sixth in a Grade 1 on his previous start before winning this in 2021 and Ocastle Des Mottes, whilst not competing at that level last time, still went off favourite for the Betfair Hurdle last month. Perhaps all the pre-race shenanigans when he had to be re-shod didn’t help his cause, but he was a little disappointing all the same in finishing eighth. I feel that, given the level of support he had that day, he must be capable of better, and I’d not be writing him off on the back of one run.
Willie’s Quai De Bourbon is the one that’s come in for all the support ever since the market opened, but he looks underpriced on what he’s achieved so far. His defeat of stablemate Westport Cove looks solid enough, with the runner-up going on to be beaten 12 lengths by Tullyhill at the Dublin Racing Festival, and a mark of 140 looks fair enough. He has one of the most experienced jockeys on board in Michael O’Sullivan and he has plenty of upside to him. The market has him well found, all the same.
Gordon Elliott has twice won this in recent years and of his battalion Better Days Ahead is the one that makes the most appeal. He didn’t shine in the Champion Bumper last year but has shown steady progression in four hurdles starts, coming up against Slade Steel at Navan two starts ago (not knocked about as the stable’s second string that day, but still not beaten far) and then second to Asian Master over a trip too short at Navan last time. Those two pieces of form look all the stronger after the Supreme and, with the useful Danny Gilligan in the plate, he just about heads up my shortlist.
It isn’t a totally one-sided affair, as the British have won the Martin Pipe twice in the last four years, with Iroko last year and the game Indefatigable four years ago (seems like yesterday, that) but the home team is not a strong one. You’d like to think at some point David Pipe might win the race named after his father but he’s 0-23 despite chucking some decent ammunition at it over the years. Thanksforthehelp was probably trying to get himself qualified for the Pertemps at Chepstow last time; that failed, and this looks more in hope than any great plan.
The one I could throw a few quid at each-way from our side is Gary Moore’s Teddy Blue. I’m not entirely convinced he’s in the right race today - the County would have been my preference - but regardless, he’s developed his own ideas about the game and isn’t one to fully trust. That’s fine if he’s a 40-1 shot, as you don’t have to pay a lot to find out what side of bed he’s got out of, but his recent form is decent enough. He travelled up well to throw down a challenge in the Lanzarote before fading late and, at Ascot last time, was only beaten five lengths in a competitive affair. He will hang left under pressure, and the hope is a fast-run affair will keep him on the bridle long enough before he realises he’s in a race and by then, he’s hopefully got the place part of the bet wrapped up.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map
Again, not obviously stacked with pace but hard to see that it won't be truly run. Gordon runs seven so one will likely go on, most likely either or both of Better Days Ahead or Mel Monroe.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Two bets for me - each-way 10/1 Better Days Ahead and a little win and place at 50/1 Teddy Blue.
And that, as they say, will be that. I hope that you're having a great week, be it only in sport or with some wagering success too, and wishing you all the best with your Friday plays. Thanks a million for following geegeez this week, and special thanks to the great writing assistance I've received from David, Rory, Gavin and John - top men, all. Do check out their links in the above if you've appreciated their work as much as I have.
Be lucky.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/galopindeschamps_langerdan_cheltenhamMartinPipe2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2024-03-14 11:08:212024-03-14 20:29:38Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Four Preview, Tips
Day Three, Thursday, and it's out with the Old (Course) and in with the New (Course). Fresh ground then, but plenty of precipitation has tumbled over it so mud lovers aforethought perhaps...
1.30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. The Turners is an intermediate distance novice chase and one which, unlike other intermediate distance races, tends to detract from the Arkle and Brown Advisory without ever really establishing its own identity. For some that will be a harsh interpretation but, besides a couple of arguable exceptions (Vautour, Chantry House, Stage Star - I told you they were arguable), there's little on the roll of honour to get the pulse charging. No matter, for every race needs a winner, and I'd be better investing your reading time in that challenge than navel-gazing about the right for this contest to exist.
This season's renewal fits that 'not quite as good as it ought to be' bill to a nicety. The betting is headed by Grey Dawning, trained by Dan Skelton. A 14 length winner of the G2 Hampton Novices' Chase at Warwick last time, he was flattered greatly by that margin: Broadway Boy and Apple Away went at it from the get go, trading blows as though this was a mile and a half sprint. It wasn't, and they cooked each other allowing GD to plod past exhausted rivals.
Still, he must be a good horse, and his previous second to Ginny's Destiny perhaps holds the key to unlocking this race. That was here but on the other track, but Ginny's has run his last four races - all over fences - here, winning the most recent three including one on this exact track/trip. Paul Nicholls will saddle him and Harry Cobden will steer, and he's very likely to try to make all. But perhaps Grey Dawning handles really deep ground better? Certainly his more patient run style could be favourable.
Pick of the Irish is expected (by the market, at least) to be Facile Vega. Trained by Willie and ridden by Paul Townend, he won the Champion Bumper in 2022 and was second to Marine Nationale in the Supreme last year. That form entitles him to win this, except that over fences he's been a couple of beats slower: having won his beginners' chase on soft to heavy, he's been turned over in a brace of Grade 1's on quicker ground. This will be a first run beyond 2m1f for him and, if he stays - the million dollar question - he's got a right chance.
Iroko was presumed out for the season but returns here for a first run since early November. He was a good winner of last year's Martin Pipe and made a highly promising chase debut on his sole spin this term; but that layoff is a big niggle for me.
Gordon Elliott sends Zanahiyr to this, having pulled stumps mid-season on a hurdling campaign and got two chases into him. The first was a novice-y round behind Fact To File, form which might not look too bad after the Brown Advisory - and, actually, doesn't look too bad anyway; and the second was a hard fought verdict over Aspire Tower over a trip too short. Both those races were beginners' chases and this is a big step up in class, for all that he's mixed it with the best hurdlers for three and a half seasons. His fencing inexperience is a concern and he might be slightly better on a sounder surface.
Venetia sends Djelo here. He started off beating Master Chewy in a handicap chase and then won two more chases, the last of which was a G2, before having no chance when completely buggered up by Matata's errant transit at Lingfield in January. Since then, Djelo ran second to the very talented (and probably under-rated) Nickle Back in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase: that was on good ground and he was ridden patiently, never able to reel in the runaway winner. But that form fits here, and he's probably a touch over-priced.
I'm struggling to make much of a case for the remainder.
Turners Novices' Chase Pace Map
Ginny's Destiny probably leads, with a few close up, but I'm expecting an even gallop.
Turners Novices' Chase Selection
Grey Dawning is clearly a talented horse and he migh just win, but I don't like his price. Similarly, Ginny's Destiny has a small question to answer on the ground for me and his price doesn't allow for that. I think Facile Vega could take a big step forward for the extra three furlongs, and he's a win only play in case he simply doesn't stay. But Djelo looks the one who will appreciate conditions and is a fat price.
Suggestion: Try Facile Vega win only at 10/3 or Djelo e/w at 16/1.
Previewed by Rory Delargy. The first thing to look for in the Pertemps Final is what runs for Gordon Elliott. He’s had 19 runners since 2017 (including one putatively trained by Denise 'Sneezy' Foster) and has saddled three winners and three seconds in that time. All of those horses were priced at 10/1 or shorter, so we must have maximum respect for the Elliott first string, Cleatus Poolaw.
Cleatus Poolaw has the right profile for a handicap hurdle winner here, being an unexposed novice arriving on the back of a career-best effort when 3½ lengths second of 14 to Noble Birth in the recent Naas qualifier. He’s 9lb higher for that which seems fair given that was his first handicap outing and he ought to progress for it. He has a remarkably similar profile to Delta Work, who won this as a novice in 2018 before quickly proving himself a Grade 1 performer. I don’t think Cleatus Poolaw is in that category, but he’s certainly a must for the shortlists in a race with extra places on offer.
Gaoth Chuil is a second-season hurdler who has run really well upped to 3m on her last two starts at Leopardstown and remains unexposed as a stayer. The British handicapper hasn’t been harsh on her considering she may well have won last time but for a late error, and she is in shrewd hands with Ted Walsh as wily as they come. The one off-putting thing is that the only time she has travelled to the UK, she ran her only poor race at Aintree last spring. Plenty of horses dislike travelling and it’s possible that she’s one, for all a sample size of one is hardly enough to make a conclusion.
Le Milos may prove best of the Brits, with Dan Skelton clearly feeling the return to hurdles could pay dividends with last season’s Coral Gold Cup winner. Of similar merit over hurdles and fences when with Tim Vaughan, he has improved markedly for Skelton and is lower in this sphere than over the larger obstacles, opening up the possibility that he could be well treated. He qualified with a low-key run at Market Rasen and was given a strangely (!) negative ride at Ascot last time. There is no better trainer at playing the handicap system at this meeting than Dan Skelton, and Le Milos is following a typical Skelton route of keeping under the radar before the big meeting.
Cuthbert Dibble is a really likeable sort for Nigel Twiston-Davies, and the trainer has won this race twice before, but the last time was in 2008 and his record of a win and six places from 52 handicap hurdle runners in the last two decades is slightly off-putting. Cuthbert Dibble has won both starts over hurdles this term, but that is not a positive historically, with only Presenting Percy since 2010 having won more than once in the current season (and that wasn’t by design!). It’s also unusual for the winner of this to have won a qualifier with only one of the last 22 winners having done so. In short, Cuthbert Dibble’s connections have been too honest in his campaigning, which is why I’d love to see him win.
Kyntara is one to consider at bigger odds, for all he’s shown his hand to a greater extent. Well suited by soft or heavy ground, he has only had nine starts over hurdles and has looked most reliable, only finishing out of the frame once. Second in the Warwick qualifier, he improved again when runner-up to Emitom last time, and while he’s not had his handicap mark minded, he could still run well for Mel Rowley, whose horses are in good nick at present.
Nicky Henderson has a good record at getting his horses into the frame in handicap hurdles at this meeting, but the abject form of the yard suggests that his runners in this may be pulled out; that said, he’s kept some in on Wednesday, and it’s possible that those (housed away from those who have been running poorly, perhaps?) will perform better, which would shed a new light on things. In the meantime, they need to be left alone.
Pertemps Final Pace Map
Plenty of pace on, as you'd expect.
Pertemps Final Selection
Shortlist: Those highlighted in bold, with Le Milos just getting the nod at current prices.
Suggestion: Try Le Milos at 12/1 each way with extra places.
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. One shy of a dozen very good, but maybe not great, horses line up for this year's Ryanair. The best of them is probably Banbridge, but he's got a problem: the celestial taps appear stuck in the 'on' position and that's simply no good for him. In fact, he probably won't run. If he does line up and it's wet, he's a lay.
The reigning Ryanair champion is Envoi Allen, and he's back to defend his crown. Last season he won a G1 at Down Royal before a no show in the King George en route to this gig; this time he flunked in a Gowran pipe opener and was pipped in the Down Royal G1. His trainer, Henry de Bromhead, will have him at concert pitch now and the long absence wasn't an issue twelve months ago. Now ten, he's not getting any younger, mind.
Stage Star looked to have assumed the mantle vacated by the same yard's Frodon this season. He runs most of his races at Cheltenham, mixing handicaps with Graded chases and winning them all... until New Year's Day, when he pulled up on heavy ground. He'd won the Turners last season and the Paddy Power Gold Cup (handicap) this season, so if you can forgive that P last time he's a player.
Gordon Elliott brings Conflated to this party, dropping back from three miles after two last fence unseats in a row. He also fell in this race two years ago, his most recent attempt at the trip, but he wasn't out of the reckoning at that point. A clear round makes him a win only player, but he's obviously a risky conveyance in that regard.
Winning the 3m1f Cotswold Chase is an unorthodox prep for a tilt at the Ryanair, but that's the path plotted by Capodanno's connections. He'd previously been third to Galopin Des Champs in the G1 Lexus (three miles) and ran in last year's Grand National. Eh? Turning back the clock a little further, Capodanno was 2nd to Bob Olinger over this trip in a soft ground Punchestown novice chase, and if it's really testing ground and they go quick, it could bring him into calculations. There are quite a few if's there, however.
Fil Dor, another for Gordie, has the opposite range problem: he's been racing at two miles since his very high class juvenile days, two sorties beyond 17f yielding a couple of clunks, in the Coral Cup and a Grade 2 hurdle at Fairyhouse. Although he finished well on the first of his two chase starts this term, he just doesn't look to have the requisite stamina.
If you're starting to see a pattern whereby horses that are too slow for the Champion Chase or not stout enough for the Gold Cup drop in here, the presence of Protektorat will do little to disabuse you of that notion. He's run over at least 2m6f on his last ten racecourse visits, and beyond three miles in eight of those. Two and a half miles it is then... To be fair to him, he's been third and fifth in the last two Gold Cups, but he's not an obvious Ryanair winner to my eye.
Jamie Snowden has Ga Law, winner of the Paddy Power a year before Stage Star and, therefore, similarly proven in today's conditions. Stage Star was rated 155 to Ga Law's 142, though. This fella had a quintet of clunks on his CV post-Paddy Power but arrested the decline in style with a win on Trials Day here in January. He's never quite convinced as a Grade 1 horse and one of the Festival handicaps might have been a better play, for all that such a plan was probably blown with the last day verdict.
Hitman's best form is at least at two and a half miles, as when he was second in the G1 Melling Chase at Aintree two years ago. He was also third in this race last year when sent off 22/1 and he handles muddy turf. I can see him skulking around out of the way before running on quite strongly, and maybe nicking a place at a big price.
And what about Ahoy Senor? Well, I'm afraid, what about him? He's not looked the force of old this season and he's little to no form at the trip. He could have a part to play, however, if he gets embroiled in the early pace; such an act might be a hindrance to the chance of Stage Star who habitually goes forward himself.
In the long grass lies Fugitif, trained by the slightly unfashionable Richard Hobson and second in the Plate last year. He's a two-and-a-half-miler through and through, and he has been campaigned almost exclusively at Cheltenham for two seasons now. During that time, his track record is 222413, all but the most recent figure achieved in handicap company. Then, on Trials Day, he ran in the two mile Clarence House Chase, diverted from Ascot, and finished off well without ever having the pace to challenge Elixir De Nutz or Jonbon. He's another who won't be involved early but who could fall into the frame late - and he's long odds at that.
Ryanair Chase Pace Map
Stage Star is most likely to lead but he may not get it all to himself. Should be a truly run race.
Ryanair Chase Selection
It's a really interesting betting puzzle but not an easy one. I'm inclined to take a small win only chance on Conflated, and two even smaller (like, miniscule) e/w plays - extra places, please! - on Hitman and Fugitif. I won't get rich or poor punting that trio but it might make for an interesting watch,
Suggestion: Try Conflated win only at 8/1 and/or very small each way on 25/1 Hitman and/or 33/1 Fugitif
Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.
All of the last 14 winners had their last run in a Graded race (13/14 in Grade 1 or Grade 2).
All of the last 14 winners had been rested at least 30 days (13/14 46 days).
All bar one winner this century had finished top 4 last time out (exception fell).
13 of the last 14 winners were rated 152+.
13 of the last 14 winners were aged 6-9yo.
13 of the last 14 winners had run at the track previously.
13 of the last 14 winners had run 1-4 times over hurdles that Season (October).
12 of the last 14 winners returned 14/1 or shorter.
9 of the last 14 winners had finished top 2 in all completed runs since October.
8 of the last 14 winners won their last race.
6 of the last 14 winners had their last run at Cheltenham.
No 5yo has ever won the World Hurdle / Stayers Hurdle.
Only 2 horses aged over 9 have won (1986 Crimson Ember & 2023 Sire De Berlais).
All 12 runners stepping up from handicap company have been beaten.
There have been only 6 Irish winners since 1996 and they have come in the last 10 years (Solwhit, Nicholls Canyon, Penhill, Flooring Porter (x2) and Sire De Berlais).
5 of the last 7 winners were 7yo. 7 of the last 10 winners were second season hurdlers.
With four 9yo's, two 10yo's, an 11yo and three 12yo's in the 13 strong line up you'd be forgiven for thinking this is a veteran's race!
Nine-year-old winners are rare with most of those that win being previous winners of the race (Galmoy 87/88, Inglis Drever 07/08 and Big Bucks 09/10/11/12), although Solwhit did win in 2013 on his first start in the race and on his first attempt at 3 miles: there's always a trends busting result somewhere in the history of a race.
Eleven-year-old winners are even rarer with last year's champion, Sire Du Berlais, being the first of that age to prevail since 1986 (Crimson Embers). No ten-year-old has won in the modern era (1972 onwards) or any horse twelveplus (there was a 13yo winner in 1927!). I think it's safest to stick to the 6-8yo age group unless an older horse has previously won the Stayers Hurdle.
That gives us four possibles who all seem to pass the main trends for this race: Teahupoo, Crambo, Flooring Porter and Paisley Park.
As much as I'd like to see Paisley Park turn back the clock and win it for the second time I just think he'll find at least one or two too good as he has done all season. There won't be a more popular winner all week should he manage it but I'm going to reluctantly look to one of the relative youngsters in the field, the 7yo CRAMBO.
He beat Paisley Park in an exciting renewal of the Long Walk at Ascot just before Christmas. Five of the last seven winners have come from that age group, including Paisley Park in his 2019 win, and the selection has done nothing but improve over the last twelve months. He made the transition from decent handicapper to Grade 1 winner at Ascot and, although he'll need to improve again, he looks on an upward curve and more than capable of finding that little bit extra.
SELECTION: CRAMBO 1pt
Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map
With Flooring Porter, Dashel Drasher and Home By The Lee all set to go forward, this may be run at quite a fast clip.
Stayers' Hurdle Selection
Shortlist: Teahupoo, Crambo, Flooring Porter and Paisley Park
Top of the list for this year’s renewal of the Plate is Theatre Man, for all he’s been well backed in the last 48 hours. That can hardly be a surprise, given his profile, and his latest form - when second to Ginny’s Destiny in the Timeform Novices Handicap Chase at Cheltenham - might already have received a boost earlier in the afternoon. If Ginny’s has won, God alone knows what price Theatre Man might go off.
He’s only had the three chase starts but has taken steps forward each time, and the way he finished off last time suggests he’s going to enjoy coming off a solid pace. He gets a bit further than this (although on soft ground, he’d not get three miles) and as ever, that’s never a bad thing this week.
I’d have liked to have seen what Trelawne could have done in the Ultima on Tuesday as regards Crebilly’s chance, as he was last of three behind Jonjo O’Neill’s unexposed 7yo at Exeter and might have given the form a boost. The assumption is that Crebilly has been laid out for this, but Jonjo’s suffered a few reverses in the past couple of weeks and for all the chat is about how moderately many of Nicky’s are running this week, Jackdaws Castle doesn’t appear to be firing on all cylinders either, and he’s easy enough to pass over at around a miserly 4-1.
Henry De Bromhead took no time in getting off the mark this week, winning the very first race, and his Arctic Bresil is the most interesting of the Irish contingent. The Irish used to struggle to win this, but they’ve won five of the last eight renewals and seemingly, like most races Festival week, they are getting the hang of this one, too. Arctic Bresil was, let’s say, quite eyecatching when second to Mister Policeman at Punchestown over two miles last time; he could never get on terms with the easy winner, but stayed on quite takingly for second, not asked for much effort, and looked like he wanted a longer trip. Normally I wouldn’t even look at one that‘s not won over the trip but he’s bred to want this, a half-brother to a couple that won over 2m4f-3m, and since when have the Irish ever taken any notice of trends and stats?
I’ve desperately tried to crowbar Frero Banbou into this as well, as he’s got his ground and has plenty of Cheltenham form to call upon. Sadly, one of his lesser efforts was in this last year when he finished twelfth, and given he’s not won for over two years, the case for him is thinner than an After Eight mint that's been stepped on by an elephant. Still, Venetia has a decent Plate record, with three winners and two seconds, and I won’t be able to resist a throwaway tenner on the Tote (surely the way to play him) if he’s a monster price.
And finally, the curious case of Saint Felicien. Well backed for the 2022 Coral Cup, he ran a stinker on bad ground, with connections stating he wanted quicker ground. After an absence of twenty months, he ran a cracker in the circumstances to finish a nine-length third to Facile Vega in a beginners chase at Navan, and although he took another three goes to get off the mark he was quite impressive at Gowran Park last time, jumping a bit cleaner than had been the case. It might be he’s finally twigged what’s required and as an unexposed chaser (this will be his fifth start over fences) he’s open to more improvement. And the ground for all four of those chase starts? According to Timeform - heavy, heavy, heavy and heavy. I’m not so convinced it wants quicker ground...
Festival Plate Pace Map
A Festival handicap. They'll go quick. Saint Felicien and Frero Banbou expected to be up top, and we'll see how long they can stay there for.
Festival Plate Selection
I really like Theatre Man and think he has to go close.
4.50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Another of my lesser favoured races of the week is the Dawn Run, but I love the Ryanair, which many people don't, and respect the Stayers' Hurdle - it can't all be golden, can it? This race has thrown some shocks in its time but it looks to have some genuine star quality this time around in the form of Jade De Grugy, Dysart Enos and, notably, B
