Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day Four Preview, Tips

/in , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day Four Preview, Tips

And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.

Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...

1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

Let me start with the strongest past race trends:

- 14 of the last 18 winners were priced with an SP 10/1 or shorter.
- There have been 5 winning favourites in the last 11.
- 9 of the last 18 winners raced at Leopardstown LTO. This means that 50% of the winners have come from only 22% of the total runners.
- 30 horses have come into the race unbeaten and 7 have won. Backing all 30 would have yielded a BSP profit of £18.77 and returns of 62p in the £.
- 5 winners for Willie Mullins, albeit from 55 runners, and 4 from 19 for Nicky Henderson.
- Female horses have won 2 of the last 6 races and they had a 1-2-3 in 2023

Poniros was a shock 100/1 winner last year but generally, as the trends have suggested, this race tends to be dominated by horses nearer the top of the market. It looks wide open this year and here are the main contenders:

Minella Study - Minella Study is three from three over hurdles, including an impressive win at the course last time out. That race has worked out fairly well and other positives are that he has generally jumped well and seems to stay. He looks a very fair price to me as I think if he was trained by either Henderson or Skelton, he would be shorter.

Maestro Conti - Maestro Conti is part owned by Sir Alex Ferguson and trained by Dan Skelton. He started off his life in France, winning at Moulins before making it two from two at Kempton just after Christmas. Last time out he won the JCB Triumph Trial at Cheltenham, finishing off strongly to make three from three in his career, which as noted earlier is a positive trend for this race. Along with Manilla Study, he represents a second decent chance for the Brits.

Proactif - Unbeaten in two starts, so that’s a positive trends-wise. His win at Fairyhouse in January looks the best trial and he won that quite impressively. Comments after that win from connections were positive, despite them feeling he was still a little green. Trained by the master Willie Mullins, he looks a solid enough market leader.

Selma De Vary - Had five runs in France before moving to Willie Mullins, the last of which was super impressive when coming from last to first and sluicing up by nearly 10 lengths. Her first run for the Irish maestro was a decent second at the beginning of February at Leopardstown. She is expected to come on a bundle for that. Matches most of the trends so is definitely one to consider seriously.

Macho Man - A third Mullins runner with a chance. Was second to Proactif at Fairyhouse and hence has around 3 lengths to find on that run.

Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Triumph Hurdle Pace Map

 

Triumph Hurdle Selection

Willie Mullins has won the last four renewals and five out of the last six. Hence, we need to take all his fancied runners seriously. Selma De Vary is my preferred option at the prices. She ticks lots of the boxes and I think she will improve a ton from her last run.

Suggestion: 1pt Win Selma De Vary

Matt's Tix Pix: Selma on A, plenty on B

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2.00 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)

Previewed by David Massey.

This year’s County Hurdle should be run at a very solid pace, with quite a few of those towards the foot of the handicap likely to go forward. That’s been a good tactic over the first two days, but as I type this up, the wind is getting up and it’s blowing quite hard down the track, so the front-runners are going to be feeling the force of it as they turn in.

So I’m looking for something that can sit fairly handy in behind the leaders, getting some cover, that’s got Cheltenham form. Plus something that’s got a bit of added stamina needed to win this and that’s nicely weighted. Step forward Jubilee Alpha.

She’s always had a bit of quality about her - a winner at Listed level, placed at Grade 2 in bumpers - and for all she hasn’t won this season, she’s had some tough tasks made harder by the fact she isn’t the biggest for carrying big weights. Twice this season she’s humped 12st around, and I think she’ll appreciate the fact she’s only got 10-11 to carry here, a far lesser burden for one of her size. A winner over 2m4f here last April, she’ll not mind the ground either; yes, there’s some rain coming, but this strong wind is going to blow it through and it’ll dry it up very quickly too. It won’t ride much slower than good in my opinion by Friday afternoon. Hopefully she can put a smile on Paul Nicholls’ face, as there wasn’t one on Thursday after No Drama This End, I can assure you.

Punters have started to cotton on to Tellherthename too, on his first start for Dan Skelton. A very useful novice for Ben Pauling, it never really happened for him when moved to Jonjo last year, but the quotes coming from the trainer have been very positive. It appears he’s working well and has refound his mojo. If that’s the case, they have a well-handicapped horse on their hands, and one that has the potential to be a gamble on the day.

Sinatra is the more obvious Skelton runner in the race, and his form has been franked by Act Of Innocence this week, third to that one in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon last month. As an aside, how well handicapped is second-home Glance At Midnight? No wonder the Skeltons went to 245k to buy it not long after. He will race close to the pace, without necessarily being at the head of it. A mark of 133 looks very workable, and for your placepots and each-way multis on the day, he’s a must.

County Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

County Hurdle Pace Map

 

County Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: Jubilee Alpha

Matt's Tix Pix: Mixing up the Skeltons and Mullins

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2.40 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

Not many people's favourite race at the Festival but, given that - unlike all the gelding G1's - its runners can actually reproduce, it is an important one for the breed. The Irish have had a chokehold on matters since its inception in 2021 and they are again well represented at the top of the market.

Dinoblue is a warm favourite in her bid to defend her title, something none of the three to attempt that previously have managed to do. All five winners to date were aged seven or eight. Dinoblue is nine. Those facts won't stop her but they do hint at the difficulty in keeping mares sweet to that sort of age: most of the half decent ones have gone to the paddocks by this time and it will be this mare's turn soon enough.

In her favour, she's versatile with regards to ground and trip, and her Festival form reads 9221. Against that is the fact she was sent off 11/8, 7/2, 15/8 and 6/4 - favourite each time; based on those odds, I guess she's just about on her expected winners score! Excluding seasonal debuts, her form in the past two campaigns reads 411111, very often at prohibitively cramps odds. It's not her fault that she's faced limited opposition but it does leave the door ajar to a potentially more battle hardened mare.

Step forward Spindleberry, unbeaten in five chase starts before pulling up in the Irish Gold Cup last time. That was an odd prep for the Mares' Chase but it also nods to the esteem in which she's held by connections. But it was still an odd prep! Let's pretend that didn't happen and instead judge her on the prior quintet of chase wins. She was given a huge RPR of 160 for winning a Listed race at Doncaster, but her two next best figures are 152 and 145. The two horses behind her at Donny to have run since have both been beaten favourites on their subsequent starts and I'm calling bluff on the big number. I also really don't like that 'P' last time. If she's better than I think she is, fair enough.

Panic Attack is even older than Dinoblue - she's ten - and is enjoying an Indian Winter (if you see what I mean) having won three in a row including, in pre-decimal money, the Mackeson and the Hennessy - remember when booze firms sponsored horse races? As if that heady autumnal double wasn't enough, you have to watch her romp at Newbury last time to believe it. Not in terms of the strength of the performance or the ratings it produced, but just from a sheer joie de vivre perspective. You can catch it here - I just watched it again (again) and it is a thing of beauty. As impressive as she unarguably was, the level of that form - and of her two big handicap wins, off 135 and 139 - is at least 7lb shy of the pick of Dinoblue's.

Interesting, if hard to peg, is Diva Luna. The Ben Pauling inmate was 3rd in last year's Dawn Run - a race contested by the last three Mares' Chase winners a season prior to their big Friday successes. She's done all that's been asked of her in two facile successes over fences this season but has recorded barely a murmur on the Richter scale speed or form wise in this context. She's been off the track 92 days - "whacked a joint" according to the trainer - which is not ideal. But he's still talking up her chance and I respect that.

The heart breaker for me would be Only By Night, backed at 100/1 here for the Champion Chase. To be fair, she'd have had place chances at best there, whereas in this field she is a credible win option. Her form against the boys - Majborough, Jango Baie, L'Eau du Sud et al - reads very well in this company, but she is stepping up from two to two and a half miles for the first time over fences (she was thumped in a heavy ground 2m4f G1 novice hurdle two years ago).

I think she'll stay - she's normally waited with and will be given every chance to get home - and she handles most ground. It's interesting that they've returned the cheekpieces that didn't seem to help especially in her first try with them last time.

The novice July Flower won a trip and (other) track novice chase here at the November meeting before running a respectable third to Romeo Coolio and Irish Panther in a G1 at Christmas. Neither of those showed up well this week and she looks to have a little to find with more experienced mares.

Mares' Chase Recent Winners

*New race in 2021

 

 

Mares' Chase Pace Map

It appears they'll go quick, with both Dinoblue and Diva Luna usual taking their fields along. There are two or three others who can show themselves early, too, so it'll likely be a fair test.

 

Mares Chase 2026 Pace Map

Mares Chase 2026 Pace Map

 

Mares' Chase Selection

This is quite a messy race. Dinoblue has the best form, Panic Attack has created the winningest (sic) visual impression, and there are a good few up-and-comers with place prospects at least. The top two in the market have won four of the five renewals to date, and the third pick won the other one, so it may not be a race to get too cute with. That said, I'm going to chance Only By Night each way for small money. She showed plenty against the fellas in both the Arkle and a G1 at Punchestown last term to suggest she's not far off the pick of these mares.

Suggestion: Try Only By Night each way at 15/2

Matt's Tix Pix: Dinoblue on A; Only By Night, Diva Luna and Panic Attack on B

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3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

"What's this?"

"I durrn't knur, it's all coover'd in't mood"

"It's a pottairr-toe, lad".

You need to be as old as me to get that reference to a crisps advert from the 1970's, but any vintage should by now be able to grasp the nub of geegeez's approach to solving the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, affectionately known as "the potato race" - they're a spuds firm, you see...

The key to betting this race is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season.

Just two winner returneds a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013 - and both of those were well backed Willie's in the lead up to the race - so we're going to be taking a swing. In fact, I'd played last year's 6/1 scorer Jasmin De Vaux at 33/1 after the Dublin Racing Festival. Bully for me, though I did highlight his case on this basis prior to last year's win right here, and that's a nod to the sideways thinking required here.

So here's the plan: we're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. This was JdV last year, including his Alby win:

 

 

Won a big field maiden hurdle, 4th in back to back G1 novices at shorter, won a big field Albert Bartlett.

And in 2024, Stellar Story at 33/1 was another archetypal winner:

 

 

Small field Graded form in defeat, a big field maiden hurdle win to start the season, and then boom. Like JdV, SS had won a bumper and also an Irish point.

Both of those horses ran fourth in the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy at DRF, and this year's 4th has a similar looking profile at a similarly huge price. He's called Riskaway, and he won a big field maiden in the autumn before getting outpaced in a four-runner dawdle over 2m4f - and then seemed to weaken late on in the aforementioned G1. It is always the case with these types of play that they could massively bomb out, but he fits the identikit and he's... 50/1!

Also from that DRF G1 is Kazansky, like Riskaway trained by Gordon Elliott. He was second at Leopardstown, doing his good work late and suggesting the longer trip and presumed quicker tempo may play to his A game.

The other angle into the Albert Bartlett, which sometimes overlaps with the one showcased above, is "the wrong Willie". Mullins has won this in recent years with horses priced at 18/1 and 16/1 as well as 5/1 and 6/1 - both the shorties well punted in the lead up to the race. Paul Townend has ridden three of that quartet, though he was second rider behind Ruby in the first of the years. Doctor Steinberg is Closutton's obvious contender, having won the Nathaniel Lacy. But he has no form in big field hurdle races, the tempo here almost certain to be a new experience for him. He might cope, and he might be very good and just win - but as I hope you can see by now, that's not really the way to bet this one.

Perhaps the horse Sortudo beat in his maiden - Jalon d'Oudairies - can step up. A dual bumper winner in 2023, he was 3rd to Jasmin de Vaux in the 2024 Champion Bumper before missing the entirety of the following season. This term, after that pipe opener behind Sortudo, he just got outsped by the decent Frankie John over 2m4f before winning his maiden by 27 lengths at 1/10 odds!

The G1 element comes from his Champion Bumper run, and we have to take a bit on trust that he can run to that level over obstacles: the evidence suggests he probably can. Seven-year-olds have comfortably the best win strike rate even if more six-year-olds have won the 'spuds'; that's because the latter age group has been represented by nearly two and a half times as many runners. You can see from the trends below that the winners in 2024, 2022, 2018, 2015 and 2010 were all 7yo, and returned 33/1, 18/1, 33/1, 14/1 and 33/1 respectively.

Road Exile has a 'sort of' profile for this race. The missing component is any sort of form over a distance - he's run exclusively at two ish miles to date under Rules - but he was a rallying nose second in a 2m2f bumper and also won his point over three miles... so maybe he is more interesting that I thought! He managed to get it done in a 26-runner maiden hurdle before being predictably run out of it by the smart flat horse Sober in a three horse G2 over the minimum. He's definitely worth chancing on this big step up in trip.

The one I like most from the top of the market, and aged seven coincidentally, is Thedeviluno. Big field maiden win? Tick - and beat Skylight Hustle no less. Outpaced in small field Graded race? Tick - and by Doctor Steinberg no less. Shown reserves of stamina? Tick - when running on from the rear to win the G2 River Don at Doncaster by five lengths on very soft ground.

Another Elliott runner, Spinningayarn, was quite well backed last week. He has the big field maiden win and followed that up in a five-runner rated novice hurdle. That's decent form and there'll doubtless be more to come, but it's not the profile we're looking for here.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Always a ton of pace in the 'spuds' and it'll take a lot of getting.

 

Albert Bartlett 2026 Pace Map

Albert Bartlett 2026 Pace Map

 

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection

If I was betting one at the head of the betting, it would be Thedeviluno, hands down. But I'm not. Even though he's having a tricky week (at time of writing, after Wednesday's racing), I'm playing three big-priced Gordies against the field in Kazansky, Jalons d'Oudairies and Road Exile. Thedevilunotakethehindmost.

Suggestion: Roll with something slow at a price. Some suggestions in the sentence above.

Matt's Tix Pix: Thedeviluno, Kazansky on A, many more on B.

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4.00 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The highlight of the whole week for many is the Gold Cup, a test of stamina and class over more than three and a quarter miles.

Defending champion Inothewayurthinkin has been a shell of his dual Festival-winning self this season, beaten 53 lengths in the John Durkan, 41 lengths in the Savills, and falling at the last when exhausted and beaten in the Irish Gold Cup. It's true that, prior to winning his Gold Cup, he'd not won - that previous season being beaten 36 lengths, 15 lengths and seven lengths in the same three races. Whilst there remains an argument that he's a spring horse, this would be a near Lazarine comeback.

From the same stable as Galopin is Gaelic Warrior, routed here as Fact To File went to the Ryanair. Once thought 'gone at the game', he's quietly amassed a formidable record of ten wins from 18 starts, five of them at Grade 1 level. That top tier quintet includes the Aintree Bowl last spring over 3m1f, and he was two noses away from King George glory in that scintillating finish at Christmas. He's since run a nice prep when a five length second to Fact To File in the Irish Gold Cup, with plenty of these behind him that day.

It must be many a year since two British-trained horses have featured so prominently in the betting and there was little more than a half length between The Jukebox Man and Jango Baie in the King George. That the former won and the latter was out of the frame illustrates what a bobby dazzler of a finish it was. TJM, famously owned by Harry Redknapp, comes here on a five-timer and is unbeaten in his first four chase starts including the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) as well as the King George, both over three miles at Kempton.

He looked a strong enough stayer at Christmas, getting up on the line having not been the quickest over the final fence, but we have to guess at his stamina reserves on a stiffer track and with more than an extra quarter mile to run. He was agonisingly chinned in the Albert Bartlett of 2024, on heavy ground, so there's obvious stamina in the locker.

I wonder how many horses turned up in the Gold Cup having won the Arkle a year earlier? That's the non-standard route taken by Jango Baie, who was outpaced until that two mile novice chase fell apart in front of him. That is not to decry his performance, under a brilliant Nico de Boinville ride; it is simply a fact that without his shuddering blunder Majborough would have won, and further that Only By Night seems to need delivering literally on the line to get her nose in front. Candidly, I'm not sold on his form or his stamina capabilities in what looks likely to be a bit of a war of attrition. If I'm wrong, hats off, but the Ascot run could have flattered him (main market rival pulled up), and he was close but still behind three other horses in the King George.

I am a big fan of Haiti Couleurs but not in a fast ground Gold Cup. I can see him winning very good races after today but surely he'll be run off his feet by quicker and classier, but less tough, horses.

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection

I don't really have a strong opinion, and only a token suggestion is the classy Gaelic Warrior. He doesn't have the stamina of some of these but he ought to travel beautifully through the race. You could make some sort of case for most of them, though.

Suggestion: Try Gaelic Warrior e/w.

Matt's Tix Pix: Going deep and taking plenty

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4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

Wonderwall was a slightly surprising winner of this last year and returns to defend his crown. His form over fences in the UK was nothing special, carrying an official rating of just 118 into this contest, but he was transformed in points by Sam Curling and was a worthy winner from Its On The Line and Willitgoahead who both reoppose. The winning margin was a neck, but Wonderwall idled before rallying to win and he must be considered a player with Rob James again in the saddle. He’s raced just once this season, winning a point at Dromahane in November, but connections report that he is “in terrific form and primed for tomorrow."

Curling is a talented trainer of pointers and staying chasers and also has another ex-English runner here in Wrappedupinmay, who left Paul Nicholls last year with a rating of 118, and has improved in points for Curling, with his only defeat coming first time up in a ladies’ open. He’s beaten Ryehill and Mac’s Charm on his last two starts between the flags on soft and heavy ground, and will relish any rain that falls, but it’s worth noting that the runners-up in those points were well beaten in the Tetratema Cup Hunters Chase at the weekend.

Its On The Line has been runner-up in this race for the last three years and it could be argued that he should have won last season, running on strongly to join Wonderwall up the hill but then outbattled by that rival. Nonetheless, his record here ought to be considered a positive rather than a negative, and he’s still young enough to succeed, having his first run in this when a raw six-year-old. Derek O’Connor is considered the finest amateur riding in Ireland and is always a positive here, but his only win in this race, surprisingly, came aboard Zemsky 15 years ago.

Its On The Line has been beaten twice in points this season but won a well-contested hunter at Down Royal at Christmas, beating Willitgoahead and Con’s Roc. That pair are also of interest, with the former third in this last year fairly shortly after joining Gordon Elliott. He flopped at Aintree and Punchestown before returning to form at Down Royal and has claims at his best, but it’s hard to bank on from the Elliott stable this week, a remark which also applies to Chemical Energy.

CON’S ROC was an eyecatcher at Down Royal, forced to switch between the last two fences and running on best of all. He failed to qualify for this race last year, despite an impressive point win over Willitgoahead at Limerick, needing to win a point after that but finishing second to Rocky’s Howya, who was only 4th at Limerick. That hunter win counted towards this year’s qualification and he sealed his place with another hunter chase win (at Fairyhouse). Darragh Allen is his regular rider and I’m quite sweet on his chances, with the collateral form stacking up well, and the extra yardage likely to suit this sound jumper.

Panda Boy was a useful handicap chaser who has won two hunter chases since switching to this sphere, beating good yardsticks in Hunter’s Yarn at Naas and Lifetime Ambition at Thurles. He has a mixed record in big fields and I was interested to hear Patrick Mullins say he thought the horse was enjoying taking on fewer rivals in his new role. He can sulk, as he did in the Grand National a couple of years back, getting badly behind, but is very useful on his day. My main concern with him is that John Gleeson has limited experience over fences under rules, with just one win to his name to date.

Stattler is now with Faye Bramley and the mount of Patrick Mullins, but he was workmanlike at best winning a hunter at Fakenham last month and doesn’t look the force of old. Barton Snow is a prolific winner in points and hunters for Joe O’Shea but while he’s won at a sharp 3m, he’s a winner over two miles here and there has to be a question about his ability to stay this extended trip. O’Shea also has Gracchus de Balme, who won the Aintree Foxhunter last year, but he’s a moody sort who disappointed last time and was readily beaten by Music Drive over C&D in May. Music Drive was fourth in this race under Ellie Callwood last year and is clearly suited by track and trip, so needs a second look, but Callwood lacks experience and looked rather weak in the finish last year.

Golden Son is likely to be ridden forward by Olive Nicholls for her father, and he’s won both starts in hunters this year. He could do better, but I think it will stretch his stamina to the limit if he tries to make all, and he might be more appealing at Aintree or Punchestown. Stablemate Shearer is useful, but there is no real reason to expect him to better his creditable fifth in this race 12 months ago. The others are all 40/1 or bigger, and while a couple of those are capable of outrunning their odds, the above look the main contenders on paper.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners

 

 

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map

The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.

 

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection

Suggestion: 1pt e/w Con’s Roc @ 15/2 (general - 4 places)

Matt's Tix Pix: Top four in the betting on A

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5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley.

The Irish have won 10 of the last 15 renewals with Elliott and Mullins responsible for 4 wins each.

Mullins has targeted, and won, this race with some very decent horses since it's inception (Don Poli & Galopin Des Champs) and it's obviously a race he likes to win while keeping one eye on the future.

Before the Festival started I took an in depth look at the Mullins handicap winners and part of this research found that all 8 handicap hurdle winners he's trained over the last 9 years had exactly the same profile. We can cover all 4 of his winners of this particular race going back to his first winner in 2011 using the same stats but concentrating solely on the 5 and 6yo's he's sent to this race. If we slightly adjust these stats it shows:

All 4 winners of the Martin Pipe were 5-6yo
All 4 had not previously run in a handicap
All 4 had been rested at least 20 days since their last start
All 4 were rated 134+
All 4 were 12/1 or shorter
All 4 last ran over hurdles at 2m-3m

Applying these 6 simple stats to the Mullins runners since 2009 would have found all 4 winners and 2 places from just 11 such runners.

So what does it mean for this year's race?

Mullins has 5 runners this year and we can see that it's only KEL HISTOIRE that ticks all the boxes from those 6 race trends.

He's finished 5th in two 2 mile Grade 3's, where he's looked a little outpaced, and he should appreciate this step up to 2m4f here. Having a very strong trends profile and being owned by JP McManus (like 2 of the last 7 winners) he's obviously attracted the attention of the bookmakers and is towards the top of the betting market. Although the favourite hasn't won since 2011 (Mullins trained that winner), the race has tended to go to the fancied runners with 5 of the last 8 winners returning at 8/1 or shorter.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map

 

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection

It's a race for the plot horses from the big Irish stables and Kel Histoire is another runner who fits that bill. It looks very much like Mullins is looking to improve on his current tally of 4 winners in the race with a runner that will be well worth keeping an eye on when he goes chasing.

Suggestion: KEL HISTOIRE 1pt

 

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And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2026. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.

Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham and Gavin Priestley are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.

Be lucky.

Matt

 

Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day 3 Preview, Tips

Day Three, Thursday, and it's a case of New Courses for Old as we 'change ends' for the second half. Fresh ground, then, probably nicely watered so no excuses - apart from the obvious (picking the wrong horse).

1.20 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

The market for the Dawn Run has been completely dominated by Bambino Fever since it opened and it’s obvious why, given she was good enough to humble the geldings in the Champion Bumper last season. However, while she has taken perfectly well to hurdles, she doesn’t have such compelling claims on the form she’s shown over timber and I’m loath to take bumper form as gospel when dealing with hurdlers. She is still the likeliest winner on paper, but I’d have her a few spots bigger on my tissue, and her price makes the quest for an each-way alternative a necessity.

Just a note on her Timeform rating for this race - until modifying her final rating after declarations, Timeform’s assessment of her hurdles form, which consists of a defeat at the hands of Oldschool Outlaw and a maiden hurdle win from a bunch of modest mares who have failed to win any race subsequently, is to award her an adjusted rating of 156p. Her published rating prior to decs was a whopping 19lb lower and that is a more accurate reflection of her hurdle form. I’m not a fan of inventing ratings based on what you expect to happen and it’s a bugbear of mine that Timeform occasionally do it when their methodology is tried and trusted. She deserves one of their big “P” symbols, but not the inflated rating on the racecard.

The best hurdles form in the race, unsurprisingly, is represented by Oldschool Outlaw, who was holding Bambino Fever all the way up the straight at Naas in December and improved on that when winning a Fairyhouse Grade 3 by 9 lengths from Place de La Nation last time. She did have a fitness advantage over Bambino Fever when winning on debut, having won a Navan bumper the previous month, but she’s also entitled to improve having only made her racecourse debut a year ago. I’d want to see a few of Gordon Elliott’s run better on Wednesday before getting involved, but she needs plenty of respect.

Carrigmoorna Spruce would be an attractive bet if Skylight Hustle were to win or run well in the Turners, having finished second to that gelding at Leopardstown over Christmas, but it’s Henry de Bromhead’s pair that I think are overlooked in this contest.

Echoing Silence cost a fortune after winning a point and has taken both starts over hurdles, beating subsequent winners first time and a good yardstick in Switch From Diesel at Punchestown. She comes here fresh, as does stablemate Full of Life, who was much improved when landing the Feathard Lady Hurdle at Down Royal in October, when seeming to benefit from aggressive tactics over this trip.

Full of Life has been tried at up to 2.75m and over fences, but Henry admitted he had got her requirements wrong and that dropping her in trip over hurdles has been a revelation. That Down Royal race is a good guide, throwing up the likes of Brighterdaysahead and Magical Zoe in recent years (both of whom looked unfortunate not to win this). This season’s renewal looked strong, with six of the runners arriving on the back of a win. Full of Life beat Carrigmoorna Spruce there, but there has been no artificial enhancing of her rating as a result, and she looks the clear value at the current odds.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

 

 

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: 1pt e/w Full of Life @ 33/1 (Hills ¼ odds 1,2,3; 25/1 general 1/5 odds 1,2,3,4)

Matt's Tix Pix: I'm spreading out in a race where the favourite has missed more often than not.

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2.00 Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase (Handicap, 2m 4f)

Previewed by David Massey.

Sometimes it pays to look beyond the obvious when looking at Cheltenham races and sometimes it doesn’t; just keep it simple, stupid. I think the Jack Richards is looking like the latter. Try not to look for anything too clever and just back the best horses, with the best form, that jump really well.

And with that, I think my main pick for this is going to be Anthony Honeyball’s Jordan’s Cross. He continues to improve with each start and might well be four from four this year but for a final-fence fall here in November.

The trainer wouldn’t have been too troubled by that, given that’s really been his only major mistake in those four starts. You can argue he was a bit novicey on debut at Aintree, but that’s expected, and stablemate Kdeux Saint Frey (also in here, and not without a chance) won that race, taking the prize back to Dorset in any case.

His form since has worked out well. A win at Doncaster next time saw him beat Go West by the minimum margin, and the runner-up has since won well at Musselburgh. A brave win over Quebecois over this C&D last time out received a boost when the runner-up was beaten under a length by a rejuvenated Johnnywho, in the Ultima on Tuesday, form that looks all the better now. The way he responded to pressure there suggests he’s not going to shy away from the final challenges the hill will give him, and all in all, there’s just a lot to like about both the horse and his chances.

Wingmen has long looked the sort for this, but after a dreadful Tuesday for Gordon Elliott, Brighterdaysahead the only, er, bright spot in an otherwise sea of mediocrity, how can you have any confidence in the yard? I suppose, if Wednesday was better for him you could have a second look at this classy sort, but I’ve had to park him now, and look elsewhere for dangers.

The question over Stencil is whether he’ll stay this trip or not, but he’s always threatened to make a better chaser than hurdler and so it is now starting to prove. He was a bit keen when second to Vanderpoel at Ascot in December and that didn’t help his finishing effort, but he got it right when dotting up at Chepstow last time out, strong at the finish and coming right away after the last to beat Juby Ball an easy 6½ lengths. The runner-up went and won by eighteen lengths next time too, making Stencil’s 4lb rise look something of a gift. This big field will mean he can be put to sleep at the back and he should settle better, giving him every chance of staying the trip. A big chance if he does and I suggest whatever you back, he has to be a saver.

There are a few front-runners here and backing one of them is clearly risky. You'll know your fate pretty early on, but I can’t resist a few quid on Ben Solo. He’s impressed me this year with some slick jumping from the front, winning nicely at Chepstow in November (decent form), and he still held every chance when unseating back at the Welsh venue last time out. That form couldn’t have worked out much better with the second, third and fourth all winners since. He’s 5lb out of the handicap, and a whole host of other front-runners won’t make life easy, but if he can wing the first two and grab the lead, therein lies his chance. You’d want a big price, but you’ll get one - 33s and bigger is worth a look.

Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Trends

*Non-handicap prior to 2025

 

 

Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Pace Map

 

Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Selection

Suggestion: Jordan's Cross

Matt's Tix Pix: Playing a few again, including the Honeyball pair.

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2.40 Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m4f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

A new day for the Mares' Hurdle, bumped from its Tuesday slot to a crowded Thursday G1 window as the undercard billing to the Stayers' / Ryanair headliners. But it's a race of interest, even absent Lossiemouth, who elected for the Champion Hurdle on the opening day.

The star billing will instead go to the Gordon Elliott-trained Wodhooh, an unassuming and highly progressive mare who at last year's Cheltenham Festival spared her trainer's blushes in the very last race after he'd endured a slew of near misses. Since transferring to Elliott from Sir Michael Stoute's flat yard in the summer of 2023, Wodhooh won nine of her ten races. The defeat? To Lossiemouth at Aintree last year. I think decent ground is important to Wodhooh - and she should get it, barring a torrential downpour. With Lossiemouth not her, she sets a very clear form standard.

The next most likely in the field is Jade de Grugy, my idea of a great bet in the Mares' Chase - and backed accordingly. Sigh. She's been chasing all season - and mixing it with top novice boys in the process - but she is the Closutton substitute for Lossiemouth. She won a Grade 1 Mares' race at Punchestown last spring so is clearly up to this level, and if she's still making a hurdle shape at her obstacles, rather than giving them the air that a steeplechase fence needs, she's the main danger. The soft side of good is probably optimal ground wise.

Feet Of A Dancer was impressive in a three mile Grade 2 at Doncaster in January, and before that was just two lengths behind Wodhooh in a G3 at Leopardstown. She definitely fits here after a good 4th in the Pertemps Final last season, though she may prefer slightly softer turf ideally.

Dan Skelton saddles the seemingly well-named Take No Chances, who has not taken any of her chances this season! To be fair, she's run very creditably in defeat to Strong Leader, Impose Toi and Potters Charm, all classy enough sorts. She might favour an extra half mile though had enough boot to beat Kargese at the minimum but tends to find at least one or two too good. She was third in this, and at Aintree, again behind Lossiemouth, last spring, beaten about ten lengths each time. Place prospects once more.

Jetara was fourth in this last year, a season in which she won that Doncaster G2. This term on soft ground she could only manage third in that race, beaten nine lengths; but she does seem to relish better ground so I can envisage her could again getting competitive for a place.

 

Mares' Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection

Looks like it will be truly run with both Dream On Baby and Jade de Grugy forward goers by habit. Wodhooh will appear later in the play...

 

Mares' Hurdle 2026 Pace Map

Mares' Hurdle 2026 Pace Map

 

 

Mares' Hurdle Selection

The market has this spot on, I think, and it looks Wodhooh's to lose. If there is a fly in her ointment it's most likely going to be Jade de Grugy. If the rain comes, Feet Of A Dancer might round out the 'noddy' trifecta.

Suggestion: Back Wodhooh to beat Jade de Grugy in a straight forecast/exacta. Maybe add Feet Of A Dancer for the trifecta, but don't expect it to pay a lot!

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Matt's Tix Pix: Wodhooh looks banker material

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3.20 Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

A race that seems to deliver a surprise result more often than not the Stayers' Hurdle was won last year by the veteran Bob Olinger, who showed a turn of pace that the younger, more stamina-laden Teahupoo - defending champion - could not match. Both were/are in the same Robcour ownership. That was on good to soft while Teahupoo's win in 2024 had been achieved in more testing conditions, and it may again be that the state of the turf dictates the fate of the best stayer in the field.

It's not that Teahupoo doesn't act on quickish ground - he beat Bob Olinger seven lengths in a Leopardstown G1 at Christmas on it - but rather that the combination of a sometimes muddling tempo in the Stayers' and less testing sod fails to make it the stamina test in which he excels. He arrives here three from three on the season and is the worthy favourite.

Bob Olinger was 8/1 when causing that surprise (to me, at least) a year ago. In winning at age 10 he was the second 'old man' to take the prize in three years - after Sire du Berlais in 2023 - but the one before was Crimson Embers 40 years ago, and before that Zarane in 1927. Time will catch up with Bob O at some point, probably by now, but it's worth noting that he's four from four at Cheltenham, including in the Baring Bingham (Turners now) hurdle and the Golden Miller (Turners then!) chase, albeit beaten and benefiting from Galopin Des Champ's last fence fall that day.

For some reason Dan Skelton seems to have a sub-5/1 shot in every Grade 1 this year. There's a good chance I'm missing something but most of them look seriously under-priced for a trainer who is 4/45 in that context. True, three of those came in the last two years - Grey Dawning (Golden Miller) and Protektorat (Ryanair) on this day in 2024, and The New Lion in the Turners last year - but I'm not a believer yet...

He saddles Kabral du Mathan, a fast improving six-year-old who stepped out of handicap company to waltz away with the Relkeel here on New Years' Day. He's stepping up half a mile which, based on his most decorated half-siblings Lucky Place and July Flower, might not be what he needs. That said, I've already mentioned elsewhere on this page, the Stayers' is regularly less than an end to end gallop. Decent ground is probably important to his chance.

Elliott also brings Honesty Policy, like KdM a progressive six-year-old. He was a Grade 1 novice hurdle winner at Aintree last spring at 2m4f and has been second and third in G1's at three miles so far this campaign. In fact, he's had only one run since the summer - in the Long Walk at Ascot in December - and comes here well rested, as did four of the last five winners. He has about 7lb to find with his stablemate and favourite but he's upwardly mobile and his price suggests connections don't think there's much between them.

Ma Shantou, trained by Emma Lavelle, is a dyed in the wool three-miler. He's run over that range on all of his last six starts, including when winning the Cleeve Hurdle by seven lengths. That was his third win at Cheltenham, all this season, and he clearly relishes conditions. He does have a fair bit to find with the best of these, however.

It's probably an unfashionable opinion but I think Ballyburn should have run in the Champion Hurdle. He won the Turners Novices' Hurdle, a key pointer to the Champion, two seasons back, and he ran his two best chase races at two miles and 2m5f. I just don't think he's a stayer. But, again, and forgive me for labouring the point, in a three mile race where the emphasis is not put on stamina, he could have a chance. However, he's been beaten by Teahupoo in his last two starts, comprehensively on their most recent meeting.

Yet another interesting runner is Impose Toi. He progressed out of handicaps last spring to win the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle in December (good to soft). On softer turf at Cheltenham, he was beaten seven lengths by Ma Shantou in the Cleeve; he might just prefer a little less cut.

It's harder to make cases for the others, though the spectre of a falsely run race hangs over this field of non-leaders - see pace section below - so a shock is not out of the question.

Stayers' Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map

NOT pacy, with no horse in the field having led on either of its most recent two starts. Gordon and Nicky have two each in the race and so might be able to control the tempo, but their runners wouldn't naturally lend themselves to such a play. Could be tactical.

 

Stayers' Hurdle 2026 Pace Map

Stayers' Hurdle 2026 Pace Map

 

Stayers' Hurdle Selection

This is a pretty good race but not an easy one to call. Teahupoo doesn't look like getting either his soft ground or, probably more important, a decent tempo to run at. Neither of those perceived impediments may stop him and I kind of hope he wins because I'm a big fan. Still, he's not really a bet even if/when he starts to drift. I'm not buying the Kabral Du Mathan hype - yet - and both he and Honesty Policy are short enough, for all that they promise to be capable of more than shown to date. You've got to love Bob O and 11yo Sire du Berlais won this in 2023, but I don't really see it. Ballyburn would be potentially good for a mad roll up bet I made but it's very hard to fancy him on his last run - he does have other lines that put him in the picture, especially if this is falsely run.

After all that, the two I'm siding with, from the same key race, are Ma Shantou and Impose Toi each way. They have both been well campaigned this season and I don't believe there's as much between them as the official margin from the Cleeve. This track and decent ground are fine for both and they might be a sliver of value.

Suggestion: Back either Ma Shantou and/or Impose Toi each way.

Matt's Tix Pix: Teahupoo on the main tickets, with Ma Shantou and Impose Toi on back ups

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4.00 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

Maybe I'm weird (don't answer that!) but I'm a huge fan of the Ryanair. It gets maligned for pulling runners from the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup, but they tend to be very good horses in search of precisely this intermediate trip. The alumni includes Fact To File, Envoi Allen, Allaho, Min, Frodon, Un De Sceaux, Vautour, and Cue Card since 2013: if that's not a strong defence of the race's existence I'm tee total.

This year's renewal has revolved another reigning champion hokey cokey, Fact To File's Gold Cup absence predicated on stamina doubts. Again, this is the right race for him. It's six furlongs shorter than the Gold Cup for crying out loud! There's a solid argument for him being the best chaser in training right now, his mid-170's rating still open to further improvement, whereas the likes of the magnificent Galopin Des Champs' mark is undeniably regressive now. Majborough may be the only one capable of better.

Still, it's fair to say he's had a bumpy run since winning last year's Ryanair. First he was dropped to two miles in what may have been an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' effort behind Marine Nationale. Returning in the autumn, he was neck and neck with Gaelic Warrior - eventually that distance behind that one - over this sort of trip at Punchestown, before not really dealing with the King George test at Kempton on Boxing Day. While that was harder to explain he put the record straight with a convincing five length verdict over Gaelic Warrior at DRF. That was three miles on soft leading many to call for his participation in the Gold Cup, but that's another three furlongs up the hill.

This is his race, and if he's in the same form as last time, or this time last year, he'll win barring incident.

Jonbon comes here rather than the Champion Chase on account of not being as quick as he was. Min and Un De Sceaux both did likewise - and to winning effect - back in the day, though both were a year younger than the admirable Henderson hoss. Indeed, we'll go all the way back to 2011 and Albertas Run's second Ryanair to find the last veteran to lift this pot. Jonbon could be my favourite horse in training at the moment (outside of the red, white and blue geegeez livery, natch) - what's not to love about a horse which has finished in the first two in all of his 27 lifetime starts, winning 20 of them? But that doesn't mean I think he can win, regardless of what my heart says.

The facts are that he was well beaten by L'Eau du Sud on seasonal bow, then bashed by Il Etait Temps when he should have been perfectly fit; since then he's beaten inferior rivals to what he faces here. I hope he pleasantly surprises me, he'll take the roof off if he does!

Another ten-year-old held in great esteem by yours true is Banbridge. This is his trip - stretching out to an easy three miles around Kempton - but he must have decent ground. Like Jonbon, his best race may now be behind him, and very recently in his case, just failing to win a classic of a King George at Christmas. As for Cheltenham, he failed to stay in the Gold Cup last year and it was much too soft for him in this the year before. Place prospects this time on decent ground but if the forecast afternoon rain arrives he might be a non-runner and re-route to Aintree.

We'd not seen Impaire Et Passe for most of a year before he showed up at Gowran Park less than a month ago to get it done in the G2 Red Mills Chase. Entitled to step forward notably for that - assuming this doesn't come too soon - he is a second season chaser with upside and brings proper Grade 1 novice form to the disco; nevertheless, he has a stone or so to find with FtF on form in the book.

Henry runs Heart Wood, a horse that has - for me at least - gone under the radar a little bit. He got closest, albeit not very close (9L), to Fact To File in last year's Ryanair, and has won a brace of Grade 3's from three starts this term. In between that pair he was a reasonable fourth to Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File in that ding dong Durkan. His best runs on RPR's have been on better ground and so I can see the case for him again hitting the frame; but he's a fairly unsexy proposition all told.

Ryanair Chase Recent Winners

 

 

Ryanair Chase Pace Map

Looking like a decent even to strong gallop, and no excuses all round.

 

Ryanair Chase 2026 Pace Map

Ryanair Chase 2026 Pace Map

 

Ryanair Chase Selection

This is all about Fact To File, who towers over his field - and all fields - on numbers. It would have to go wrong for him not to win and he's as close to a banker as you can get at Cheltenham (which, of course, is not all that close - this does not constitute financial advice!)

Suggestion: Back Fact To File, or just watch and hope he shows how good he is.

Matt's Tix Pix: Fact to File is pretty much a banker but I want a little bit of small percentage coverage elsewhere in case of dramas.

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4.40 Pertemps Final (Grade 3 handicap, 3m)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley.

When I went through the pre-New Year qualifying races, I landed on ELECTRIC MASON as the one I had my eye on for the Final and I'm going to stick with that one as my main selection.

He ran second in the very first qualifier of the season at Cheltenham, before reversing the form with the winner next time out in a Grade 3 at Haydock. The form of that Haydock win now looks outstanding with the runner up finishing 3rd in another Grade 3 handicap, the 3rd, 4th and 6th all winning since and the 5th running 2nd in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle on New Years Day. The 33/1 10th won at Cheltenham next time out as did the 12th who then followed up in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle on Cheltenham Trials Day. Even the 50/1 11th home managed to win a class 2 handicap at Musselburgh on his next start.

He hasn't run since Haydock, in an effort to protect his handicap mark, but he has a decent record coming off a break of 90 days+ of 3-1-2-2 and 4 winners since 2011 have used the same tactic of having a break of at least 60 days before coming to Cheltenham.

With 13 of the last 14 winners being aged 8 or under, 11 of the last 14 winners finishing top 4 last time out and all of the last 14 winners carrying 10-09+ he ticks all those boxes and his current 139 rating is perfect (11 of the last 13 winners were rated 138+ with 8 winners this century rated 138-140).

He has the form, he has a cracking Trends profile, he has course form from earlier in the season and goes on the ground. All in all he looks to offer excellent each way value.

Pertemps Final Recent Winners

 

 

Pertemps Final Pace Map

Pertemps Final Selection

Suggestion: Electric Mason 1 point e/w

Matt's Tix Pix: More scattergunning in a race where I never have a clue

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5.20 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

For a Cheltenham festival race, I would not class this as a strong one for past trends. However, here are the strongest considerations:- 9 of the last 18 winners have come from the top three in the betting

- 10 of the last 18 winners were priced between 2/1 and 11/2 LTO
- 13 of the last 18 winners failed to win earlier that season
- The top two in the weights (inc. joints) have won 6 races from only 44 qualifiers with a further 8 being placed
- Horses that either won LTO or were beaten by 3 lengths or less have a poor record with just 2 wins from 103 runners.

For my run style the stats, I am again focusing on the last 10 renewals. These races have seen a huge number of runners racing mid division or held up near or at the back. A total of 78% of all runners have had either of those two run styles. Eight of the ten winners (80%) have won from a mid-div or held up sit, so essentially for winners, there has been little in it run style wise. However, it should be noted that, although front runners have won just once, seven have been placed (PRB 0.67).

On to some of the contenders now.

Jeriko Du Reponet - Was an excellent second in the Pertemps last year here and followed that up with a smooth win at the Punchestown festival in May. Clearly a talented hurdler, he has not impressed in his three chase runs this year with his jumping, so for some it might seem strange that he has been backed into such a short price. If he brushes up his jumping, he may just have too much class for this field, but it’s a big if. He’s owned by JP McManus, who has a good recent record (three wins and four places in the last ten years). Derek O’Connor rides which suggests that the horse is well fancied.

Waterford Whispers - Another JP owned horse, this time trained in Ireland by Henry De Bromhead. Ran an eye-catching race last time at Leopardstown when third and that was his best effort over fences to date.

Weveallbeencaught - Fourth in this race last year when trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. Now with Eric McNamara and he started the year with two decent runs at Listowel and Limerick. Possibly was disadvantaged last time out when seemingly racing on the wrong part of the track. Looks an each way player to me.

Sandor Clegane - He has previously run three times at the Festival, coming third in the Albert Bartlett, fourth in the Brown Advisory, a race in which he was upsides Fact to File at the last, and a decent 10th in the Coral Cup last year when only five lengths off a place. Trainer Paul Nolan’s place stats at the Festival, since 2018, are the best of any trainer (40% thanks to 10 win/placed runners from 25). Backing all 25 runners to the Betfair Place would have yielded huge returns of around 85p in the £. Recent form has offered little real encouragement, but off a mark of 138, he is thrown in if getting close to that run in the Brown Advisory. He is a big price due to his recent form, but Cheltenham does seem to bring out the best in him.

Ask Brewster - This is his time of year, having raced three times in the Spring, winning every time including at Cheltenham last April. The better the ground the better his chance as all four chase wins have been on good or quicker.

Kim Muir Recent Winners

 

 

Kim Muir Pace Map

Kim Muir Selection

To conclude, Jeriko Du Reponet could just have too much class, but at around 4-1 the price looks far too tight, despite the positive past record of horses near the head of the betting. Waterford Whispers is also 4-1, but in a 26 runner race I can’t convince myself this is value either. I prefer to have three against the field in such a big field.

Suggestion: Split your stakes on Weveallbeencaught, Ask Brewster, Sandor Clegane.

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And that's us three-quarters of the way home. Hopefully you've had a couple of good draws already; if not, fear not for Gold Cup day will follow. But let's enjoy Thursday's sport first!

Good luck

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

/in , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

We're onto Wednesday, the second quarter and the second of two days on the Old course at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. Seven more brainteasers, seven more invitations to the most coveted roll of honour in the sport. Let's proceed with haste to...

1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

We kick off a day of big fields with the largest assembly for the Turners since 2002 when Galileo (not that one) prevailed ahead of 26 rivals. 'Only' 22 this time, and it bears remembering that Galileo was a 12/1 fifth choice in the betting. When the field has been 15 runners or more, winners returned 8/1, 14/1, 6/4, 2/1, 7/1, 7/1, 20/1, 17/2, 17/2, 12/1, 6/1, and 12/1 since 2000. All bar the 20/1 winner Massinis Maguire came from the top five in the betting. So, we don't want to get too cute but there might be some value for an each way play...

The favourite as I write is the Paul Nicholls-trained No Drama This End, impressive winner of his three novice hurdles including over course and distance. His unbeaten timber-topping trio are comprised of two Grade 2's and a Grade 1, the Challow Hurdle at Newbury in late December. That was considered a Turners buster until The New Lion won both contests last season and laid that particular stat quirk to rest... for the time being at least.

Still, it bears saying that the respective tests of a small field contest at Newbury and a cavalry charge around Cheltenham are quite different. Indeed, NDTE has yet to win in a bigger field than the eleven lesser mortals he brushed aside on his bumper debut; he was then no better than midfield when a 12/1 chance in last season's Champion Bumper. I really like this horse and have backed him ante post at a similar quote to his current odds, but I didn't expect there to be so many challengers.

It might be that this is a race characterised by quality over quantity, of course, and if that is the case, it will be fun to watch a delighted Nicholls lead his lad back in. For that reason alone, I hope he wins.

The DRF Grade 1 Novice Hurdle won by Talk The Talk provides the liveliest threats - according to the market at least. We'll have a handle on this form line after Tuesday's Supreme, when the winner runs, but this does look the right race for both Ballyfad and King Rasko Grey. Ballyfad was just out pointed bt TTT in a slowly run race where he had the run of things on the front end; it might be that this stronger stamina test will play to his strengths: he'd previously made all to batter Leader d'Allier (also Supreme bound) ten lengths in a maiden hurdle. But he doesn't need to lead; both bumper wins were from a less prominent early position. He brings solid G1 form from a key race to the table.

So too, just behind him that day, does King Rasko Grey. Placed in consecutive renewals of the Goffs Land Rover sales race - fourth and then second - he won his maiden without fuss at Christmas (2nd, 4th and 5th all won next time, 3rd unraced since) before taking bronze at DRF. The choice of jockey Paul Townend, he's a prominent racer with plenty of upside and, like Ballyfad, probably wasn't suited by the steady tempo last time. There's little between the pair on that run.

Sober has been a talking horse on the preview circuit. Trained, like KRG, by Willie Mullins Sober's form is hard to weight up: he has won four in a row, two novice hurdles and two conditions races on the flat. One of the novices was a three-runner Grade 2 which revealed little and from which none of the trio has tested the level of the form. The other novice win was in May in a five runner race at Killarney. No, me neither. Perhaps he is best judged then on the basis of the intervening win on the level at Ascot - yes, Royal Ascot - in the Queen Alexandra Stakes over 2m6f. Although there were only nine runners there, as the image below shows (from our new sectionals display - coming soon!) he produced an electric gear change in the final stages to win by an easy five lengths. They didn't go quick there but nor did they go slow - this guy does have a high cruising speed, and quick ground is probably what he needs.

 

 

Jack Kennedy has opted for Ballyfad but it must have been a tough choice to jump off Skylight Hustle. Second to Thedeviluno (subsequent G2 scorer and one of the favourites for Friday's Albert Bartlett) on hurdling debut, he then won a 24 runner maiden hurdle by... counts them... 21 lengths! Confirming the viusal impression there, he rolled on to the Future Champions Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) at Leopardstown at Christmas and put five lengths between himself and the runner up. His best form - that run - was on a soundish surface and his versatile run style profile is a positive. He's another player though that G1 is not normally the strongest pointer to the Turner's.

A third string to Willie's bow is Sortudo, who I thought might run in Friday's longer novice race (and who I backed accordingly, sigh). He was beaten by the fairytale horse I'll Sort That, more momentarily, in a Grade 1 at Naas formerly known as the Lawlor's of Naas. That's been a good pointer to this, with the likes of Envoi Allen and Bob Olinger doubling up.

The winner I'll Sort That looks over-priced in his bid to emulate those two top notchers, perhaps mainly because he's ridden by his owner and trainer, Declan Queally. In fairness, Queally would probably readily concede that he's no Ruby Walsh - who is? - but that hasn't stopped him racking up a sequence of four hurdle wins culminating in that top tier pot. I'll Sort That often leads in his races but I don't think he absolutely has to - was prominent when winning a Galway novice - and he does look a smidge of value. It will be one of the stories of the week if Queally - who is an excellent trainer, by the way - comes home in front.

One other I need to mention, and only because I had a good bet on him in the wrong race, is Riskaway. He was fourth in the 2m6f Nathaniel Lacy at DRF and, to be fair, he did run like a non-stayer there. He might not be quick enough or good enough for this, but I'm pretty sure this is his ground and I do expect him to run a lot better than a 66/1 shot.

 

Turners Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Turners Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

A few different pace angles, so it could be hard fought early or just one or two take them along. An even to strong tempo looks most likely though far from certain.

 

Turners 2026 Pace Map

Turners 2026 Pace Map

 

Turners Novices' Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: It's a wide open race as 5/1 the field implies. And I don't really have a strong view in a contest where most of them are capable of better. At the prices, I think I'll Sort That might be the value. Yes, his jockey is the least experienced in the race; but his form is pretty solid, including that key race G1 score last time (where he beat many of the same riders, and where there were 15 lengths back to the third). He shouldn't be nearly 20/1, should he?

Matt's Tix Pix: Two A's and a a few more B's

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2.00 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

The Brown Advisory market had a significant shake-up when Final Demand was turned over by Kaid d’Authie in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the DRF. The former was a warm favourite for this at that point, but now has his air of invincibility pricked.

I thought the real eye-catcher in that contest was WESTERN FOLD, who looked in need of the run after a three-month break and shaped really well on ground softer than ideal, with Jack Kennedy only getting serious enough with him to ward off the attention of the stewards. He has shown his best form on good or yielding ground and the return to spring ground will be a big help. He’s also got form against established chasers, which has earned him a rock-solid official rating of 157.

To put that in perspective, here are the Irish handicapper’s ratings for the main Irish runners:

Kaid d’Authie 158
Western Fold 157
Romeo Coolio 157
Final Demand 156
Kitzbuhel 153
Oscars Brother 151
Koktail Divin 149
The Big Westerner 144 (+7 mares’ allowance)

By contrast, the leading UK runners have the following ratings:

Salver 149
Wendigo 147

Both Salver and Wendigo have been well tipped up at previews, but face a stiff task even to place according to those figures, which I don’t have much truck with. I will point out that stamina counts for something here and that neither Romeo Coolio nor Kaid d’Authie are proven at even a bare three miles, and neither is Final Demand, for that matter. Romeo Coolio also wears a hood to help preserve his stamina and it’s clear that connections are ruing the loss of the Turners (Golden Miller) Chase here as his optimum trip is probably 2.5m.

Western Fold won the Mayo National over an extended 2m7f and won over that trip over hurdles. His only run over a full 3m over fences ended in defeat, but finishing third behind Envoi Allen and Affordale Fury at Down Royal was a smart effort, and he was just a length and a half behind the latter there, having beaten the same rival at Gowran Park on his previous start.

Affordale Fury then went on to beat I Am Maximus and Galopin des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown, underlining the strength of the form. He ran off a mark of 148 when a clear-cut winner of the Galway Plate and his current rating cannot be questioned.

Brown Advisory Chase Recent Winners

 

 

Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map

 

 

Brown Advisory Chase Selection

The main argument against Western Fold is that he’s more exposed than his rivals, but his experience will - in my view - stand him in good stead in a big field. Whereas some of his rivals have a bit to prove in such a competitive environment, for all a couple are open to further progress. Others will point out that the fact his trainer has switched Romeo Coolio from the Arkle, with Jack Kennedy riding, showing that he’s much better fancied than Western Fold. Sure, Romeo, as befits the name, is the sexier of the two, but sexiness doesn’t win races. The subsequent drift on the battle-hardened Western Fold makes him a really attractive each-way bet in a race that will suit him. Danny Gilligan will do for me!

Suggestion: 1.5pts e/w Western Fold @ 14/1 (general – 4 places)

Matt's Tix Pix: Spreading out in an open race

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2.40 BetMGM Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

Previewed by David Massey.

I was dealt a bit of an early blow with the BetMGM Cup on Monday morning when my ante-post fancy, Double Powerful, failed to make the cut. Oh, if only Conor O’Farrell had finished fourth in that Musselburgh Pertemps Qualifier and not fifth. Might have saved a lot of heartache this week. Anyway, thank the punting gods for NRMB, nothing lost as yet.

I think we're best starting at the top here, with Gordon Elliott and The Yellow Clay, who is going to be wearing some cheekpieces for the first time. The compressed nature of Cheltenham handicaps these days means we’ve seen genuine Grade 1 horses, when dropped into handicaps, having to give far less weight away to those at the foot of the handicap, as is the case here; 17lb covers the lot of ‘em.

Wind the clock back twelve months and we’ll find The Yellow Clay being beaten three-quarters of a length by The New Lion in the Turners, and you don’t need telling that is quality form. It might look even better come about 4.10 on Tuesday. This season, his two starts have all been about keeping him ticking over, and having missed the DRF (not a bad thing when looking for the winner of this in my book) he comes here a fresh horse.

Spare a thought for Ballyadam. Here’s a horse with a Festival record that most racehorses would give their right leg for (one of them, anyway) - 25523, and that includes a third in this race last year. Now aged 11, which most of the stats for this race will tell you is too old, and a pound higher than last year, too, the handicapper has hardly done him any favours and yet only a fool wouldn’t look twice with a record such as that. He warmed up for this with a spin on the Flat at Dundalk last month, and a nice spin it was too, finishing a close third. Both he and The Yellow Clay will be claimer-ridden to reduce the burden, and my heart is telling me an each-way bet on Ballyadam, with the extra places of course, is going to have to take place. Stats, on this occasion, can take a back seat. There won’t be a dry eye in the house if he wins.

There’s another grizzled Festival veteran in the shape of Colonel Mustard to consider too. He was fifth in this last year and he does have a victory over The Yellow Clay this season to crow about. That came in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle back in November and two starts since then, whilst not seeing him at his best, have probably been under unfavourable conditions, with either trip or ground against him. He’ll probably need more than the rope and the candlestick to come out on top but the 33s is luring me in as far as the places go.

Iberico Lord ticks a lot of boxes for this - JP McManus, NIcky Henderson, French bred - but at 10-1 he’s hardly a dark one. He does have a Cheltenham win to his name but that aside, his efforts here are mixed, to say the least. I can swerve him at the price.

There’s very little at the foot of the handicap making any appeal, but Forty Coats might be worth a second look. His form as a novice was pretty decent, and that all culminated in a fifteen-length fourth to The New Lion in the Turners here last March. Two efforts this season have left a bit to be desired, in truth, and an odds-on defeat at Thurles last time was hardly what you’d want to see, so you are relying on the first-time cheekpieces to have a galvanizing effect, along with some De Bromhead magic and a return to Cheltenham. A mark of 138 is fair IF he can.

BetMGM Cup Recent Winners

 

 

BetMGM Cup Pace Map

 

 

BetMGM Cup Selection

 

Suggestion: Ballyadam each way

Matt's Tix Pix: LOTS on A, and quite a few on B!

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3.20 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley.

The race switched from a handicap to a non handicap in 2016 but now reverts back to a handicap. The Irish have dominated this race since its inception and I don't see that dominance ending this year as they head to Cheltenham with a formidable challenge.

The winner of the recent Cheltenham Cross Country Race was the Gordon Elliot trained Favouri De Champdou, who would have a very decent chance on the evidence of that recent win. As would The Goffer, also trained by Gordon Elliot, who was runner up to Vanillier last time out.

Last year's winner Stumptown is trained by Gavin Cromwell and warmed up for this with a win in the Czech Pardubice, a race that makes this look tame in comparison. He's currently joint favourite, but he's carrying top weight here and is 5lb higher than last year. He loves this type of race, and despite his weight, is another that is highly respected.

However, I just prefer the chances of his 11yo stablemate, VANILLIER, who finished an excellent 3rd in this race last year. That’s despite nearly taking the wrong course at the 3rd fence, the canal turn, before staying on very strongly from the last.

He's 6lb lower in the ratings than last year, and won last time out in the same Punchestown Bank Chase he had won last season. That's usually a good pointer to this race and he looks to have a lot going for him again this time around. He looks a great value each way bet with 4 places on offer.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Recent Winners

*Handicap up to 2015, conditions race 2016-2024, reverted to a handicap in 2025. Abandoned in 2024.

 

 

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map

 

 

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection

Suggestion: Vanillier 1 point e/w

Matt's Tix Pix: Favori mainly with a few smaller plays as well

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4.00 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

A race shorn of a large chunk of its appeal with the news last week that reigning champ Marine Nationale will miss the gig. He'd been my idea of the value against Majborough, the better ground expected to play much more to his strengths. Anyway, that's all by the by...

Majborough then is a strong favourite in MN's absence, and deservedly so after his romp in the Dublin Chase where he had most of twenty lengths back to Marine Nationale et al. His Cheltenham form is good, having won the Triumph Hurdle in 2024 before being the moral winner of the Arkle last season. I say moral winner, because he was only third - beaten a length - having left a deep impression in the second last through which he walked, causing him to massively decelerate.

But therein might lie Majborough's Achilles heel: he can be a clumsy leaper. That was by no means his first mistake in the Arkle, though to give him his dues he's been much better this season, and was foot perfect last time out at DRF. He brings unarguably the strongest form and is easily the most likely winner. A look at the trends below, however, provides sobering reading for bridge jumpers: six winning jollies since 2009 (17 years) doesn't sound so bad until you consider that Jonbon was 2nd at 5/6 last year, El Fabiolo pulled up at 2/9 the year before, Shishkin was pulled up at 5/6, Chacun Pour Soi was 3rd at 8/13, Defi Du Seuil was 4th at 2/5, Douvan was 7th at 2/9, Un De Sceaux was 2nd at 4/6, Sizing Europe was 2nd at 4/5, and Master Minded was 4th at 4/5. Jeez!

As if that wasn't bad enough, prior to 2009, Well Chief fell at evens, Moscow Flyer unseated at 5/6, and Flagship Uberalles was only 3rd at 11/10.

Still want to bet Majborough at odds on?! Good luck, you'll be on the best horse but that often hasn't been enough to get you paid...

I'm currently incubating a theory that Maj's jumping is better on softer ground because he's moving at a slower tempo. That could be rank quackery, of course, but if it's right he's going to come under much more pressure with a number of other forward racers in the field. I just cannot bet him at odds on for all that he towers over his field form wise, like many beaten QMCC favs before him did.

So where to, then? Second favourites (and joint-/co-second choices) have won ten times since 1997 and, given the price of a number of the beaten jollies, they've often been sent off at each way prices.  Marine Nationale last year was 5/1, Put The Kettle On was 17/2, Politologue was 6/1, and Sprinter Sacre was somehow 5/1 when Un De Sceaux was 4/6 (I'm sure it made a lot of sense at the time). As well as those winners, Sizing Europe was a 6/1 2nd, Kalahari King was 9/2 3rd, and two of the 12/1 co-second favourites of three behind 4/11 Master Minded filled out the places in 2009.

My problem is that I cannot possibly back L'Eau du Sud at about 4/1. It just looks completely wrong. He had seemingly no excuses when not only behind Majborough, but also Only By Night, in the Arkle last year, and he was beaten 18 lengths by Il Etait Temps in the Tingle Creek in December. What am I missing?

Yes, I know he won the Schlurrrr Chase by 15 lengths from Jonbon but you're literally mad if you take that as literal form, and even if you did you'd need to factor in Jonbon's probable regression this season. There's just no way for me that L'Eau du Sud is a 165+ horse, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Lay.

Il Etait Temps is a different proposition entirely. Of course it's suboptimal arriving at Cheltenham off the back of a tired fall when beaten but he's a bona fide Grade 1 horse, whereas the L'EdS is not - not yet at least. Martha's Son overcame a fall prior to winning the QMCC, albeit that was in 1997, and both Big Zeb and Moscow Flyer took risks at their fences. More materially, that was an uncharacteristic error from a normally safe jumper.

Still, it remains the case that the top of the market doesn't particularly stand close inspection (bar Majborough - it's not his fault that other shorties got beaten). It is also true that nothing bigger than 11/1 has won the Champion Chase since Newmill caused the upset in 2006; so we don't want to be getting too cute, in all probability.

Who next? Quilixios was booked for second at a big price in this last year (yes, I backed him) when falling at the final fence, but he's not been seen since. He goes well fresh, and not even Willie can match Henry de Bromhead's four Queen Mother's, but it's a stretch to imagine he'd be fit enough to take the spoils. It is, isn't?!

I thought Found A Fifty would have a bit of a place chance, too, but that was before Gordon ran him at Navan 11 days ago: he was last of four on heavy ground. Did he need the run? :-/

Irish Panther is one at which to take a second glance. Not without his supporters for the Arkle, connections have gone for it by running in the main event and, to be fair, I can sort of see why. Bar Majborough it looks a race full of if's and but's so sure, why not? He has more scope to improve than most, and he will need to improve to the tune of ten pounds to hit the board.

Third last year was the former champ, Captain Guinness, but he was beaten 20 lengths and would have been fourth but for Quilixios's exit at the last. I know his best form is at Cheltenham but aged eleven now, his best form is also surely behind him.

Even in a shallow looking renewal, I can't really make a case while keeping a straight face for any of Libberty Hunter, Saint Segal or Brookie.

 

Champion Chase Recent Winners

 

 

Champion Chase Pace Map

This looks pacy, Quilixios unlikely to get a solo with Irish Panther in the field. Saint Segal and Majborough also tend to go forward though neither needs to. There will be at least place pieces to be picked up by someone...

 

Queen Mother Champion Chase 2026 Pace Map

Queen Mother Champion Chase 2026 Pace Map

 

Champion Chase Selection

Majborough has outstanding claims if jumping around cleanly. But the record of short-priced favourites in the QMCC makes such a play a bit of a knee trembler. Il Etait Temps is far from a safe alternative, that last run a shocker even before the tumble; but the balance of his form is a) winning, b) in Grade 1 company, and c) on this sort of ground. On ratings, he is 2lb behind Maj and 8lb+ in front of everything else. He rates an e/w play.

Suggestion: Back Il Etait Temps each way at 5/1. And if/when the bookies push Majborough out to evens, bet him to win!

Matt's Tix Pix: Majborough on A, Il Etait Temps on B.

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4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

This would not be the strongest race at the meeting for past trends in my opinion, but here are what I perceive to be the key ones (last 18 years):

- Irish trainers are 7 from 87 (8%), whilst British trainers are 11 from 274 (4%).
- Winners have been a real mix of prices so difficult to rule out a horse on price.
- Horses that had previously raced twice or more at Cheltenham have won 14 of the last 18 renewals (77.8%). This group has accounted for just 55% of the total runners.
- Horses that have raced once or fewer at Cheltenham previously have combined to win just 4 races from 149 qualifiers for huge BSP losses of £92.62 (ROI -62.2%).
- Horses that have previously won at Cheltenham have won 8 renewals from 103 runners (7.8%) with those without a course win with just 10 victories from 258 runners (3.9%).
- Horses that finished 8th or worse LTO, but completed the course, have won 5 times from just 31 qualifiers.
- Not much in the age stats as far as wins go, but in the placed market those aged 5 to 8 have outperformed those aged 9 and older (22.7% v 15.3%).

A look at run style stats now. As with yesterday I am looking at the past ten renewals:

It seems that horses held up early have been at a significant disadvantage.

Let me now share my shortlist of runners:

Vanderpoel - Ben Pauling is one of my favourite jumps trainers and he had the winner of this race in 2022. This 7yo has won the last twice and has gone up a total of 15lbs as a result. I personally think he is 2lbs/3lbs below his true mark, so for me he is a real contender. He should track the pace, which is my preferred run style for this race. Ben Pauling thinks the horse is ‘tailor made’ for this race. My one slight negative is that he seems to have run far better on right-handed tracks than left in his career to date, albeit from a limited sample.

Inthepocket - He was a top-notch hurdler winning the Grade 1 Top Novice’s Hurdle at Aintree back in 2023. His chase career has been a bit hit and miss, but his last run showed glimmers of promise when fifth in the Barberstown Castle Handicap at Leopardstown. He’s a decent jumper which should help in this type of contest. Trainer Henry De Bromhead knows how to win at this meeting, and he has been fairly strong in the market. He‘s not won at Cheltenham but was a decent fourth in the Supreme back in 2023. Also, his likely run style should suit this contest.

Be Aware - The Skeltons won this in 2024 and Be Aware seems to have been their long-term target for this race. The 7yo won first time up this year and has since finished runner up three times on the spin. One of those 2nds was in the Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown, so he definitely has a touch of class about him. Another positive is that he has finished second twice at Cheltenham from three starts. One to seriously consider.

Ryan’s Rocket - Two starts back he won really well at Newbur,y when he travelled really strongly in a race where a very strong pace was set by Javert Allen. A little concerning that he has unseated twice either side of that run, but if he stands up, he will be there or thereabouts.

Personal Ambition - The second string from the Ben Pauling stable but not without a squeak. I managed to get 130.0 on Betfair for a couple of quid on Sunday which I am happy enough with.

Grand Annual Recent Winners

 

 

Grand Annual Pace Map

 

 

Grand Annual Selection

This a really open race and I could make a fair case for some others including Ballysax Hank, Release the Beast and last year’s winner Jazzy Matty.

I would not put anyone off backing either Be Aware or Ryan’s Rocket, and I will be sticking both in my Placepot. However, I will be splitting stakes on one Irish and one British runner namely, Inthepocket and Vanderpoel.

Suggestions: Split stakes on Inthepocket and Vanderpoel.

Matt's Tix Pix: Spreading out across A and B

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5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1, NH Flat, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

We'll all know more by about 5.30, so what follows is a small bit of attempting to nail jelly to a wall. What we can say is that Willie wins with wegulawity, and not always with the fancied one. Indeed, he's laid claim to six of the last eight Champion Bumpers, and only once with the market leader. Since 2012, Mullins has saddled winners at 25/1 twice, 16/1 and 11/1, as well as less sexy 9/2, 4/1, 85/40, and 15/8.

He is again well represented, of course, the market settling on Love Sign d'Aunou, a son of Goliath du Berlais and an easy peasy all the way winner of a 2m3f Naas bumper on heavy ground. I'm not sure that's the speed test he'll get here, although stamina is typically an abundant requirement, too. What is noteworthy is that Mullins used the same race as the springboard for Jasmin de Vaux's 2024 Champion Bumper win as well as the good runs of Seabank Bistro (4th) and Western Diego (7th). In the land of the guessers I can definitely see the case made for LSd'A.

The Navan bumper won by The Irish Avatar was also won by fancied Cheltenham Bumper runners It's For Me, Three Stripe Life and Eskylane, all of which ran well without making the frame.

One of the features of Willie's bigger priced winners is that they'd tended by winners of their sole start under Rules. Going back to Alexander Banquet (9/1) in 1998, Joe Cullen was 14/1, Cousin Vinny 12/1, and 25/1 Briar Hill. All brought a single run, and win, to the Cheltenham party. This year, Love Sign, the Avatar and Quiryn are all once raced, as is Our Trigger.

The master of Closutton may be focusing less on bumpers than historically. Here's a chart of his percentage of rivals beaten, by Irish season:

 

 

It was notable that Mullins had just one runner in the two DRF bumpers, a mare sent off 10/3 and which finished almost last. Did he think they'd have too hard a race less than six weeks out?

In contrast and in his absence, Gordon swept the podium in the open G2, Broadway Ted just getting the better of With Nolimit, Charismatic Kid back in third. But Elliott's main hope appears to be Keep Him Company, two from two and unsighted since the tail end of December. He won a Leopardstown bumper that day, another in which Willie was notably unrepresented. What's going on with Willie's bumper runners this season? Maybe a change of approach, or something and nothing? Or something and something? I don't know...

An interesting one, and not normally my cup of tea at all, is Mets Ta Ceinture. As a four-year-old filly she gets a stack of weight - 17lb to be exact - from the older boys and, while there are well established reasons for those age and gender concessions, she was impressive when beating all bar the hat-trick seeking Mondialito d'Huez in a Grade 2 NHF at Saint-Cloud. She'd previously won a Le Mans bumper (no, me neither) and, after that taking G2 run she scored in a 1m4f G3 bumper before changing hands at the Arqana Autumn sale for, wait for it, €710,000. Those 'Graded' races were for AQPS horses only and that does cool the warm feeling a little, and the fact that the second has been beaten in her last six starts (and the third ran out of the frame since) further diminishes it. Seven hundred grand is a lot of money, even in euros...

It's been a while since a British-trained horse won this - ten years in fact, when Ballyandy gave the Twiston-Davies family a red letter day. Moon Racer had won for David Pipe the previous year, Messrs Hobbs and Tizzard bagged one each in 2010/11. Maybe this is 'our' year? If it is, Bass Hunter, twice a winner and unbeaten, will be high on the list of possibles. Favoured on both starts, he's clearly well regarded by Chris Gordon and has yet to disappoint, winning a Newbury bumper on debut by eight easy lengths and then an Ascot Listed event by a length, somewhat geared down. The second and fourth from the Ascot race have been whacked since which tempers enthusiasm.

One more I need to mention is Moonverrin, winner of the same DRF G2 mares' bumper as Bambino Fever and Relegate. Second on her debut, she was a ready winner at Cork on her next start but was sent off 20/1 in this field of nine. She ran a remarkable race, switched off at the back before cantering to the lead; as soon as she hit the front she rolled sideways in the final furlong allowing another mare to seemingly win the race - only for the jockey on that one to stop riding and get chinned by the re-rallying Moonverrin!

It could readily be argued that it was poetic justice and it would be hard to deny that the best horse didn't win the race. But the Willie filly (mare actually) ran like stink and the Gordon entry pulled up. There's a good chance the form is not worth much, but she's a big price: what odds would she be if trained by one of the usual suspects rather than Martin Hassett?

Noel Meade has booked crack flat jockey Colin Keane to ride The Mourne Rambler. He won his bumper well on St Stephen's Day and had run in a point before that, so has a little more experience; but I can't see a flat jockey on the roll of honour and a fair few have tried. I heard someone say the other day, "There's a reason flat jockeys tend to only ride once in the Champion Bumper", and that's a fair point. Something must put them off - maybe it's harder than they think!

A first runner in the bumper for Martin Brassil is It's Only A Game and he's been shrewd enough with those he's saddled at the Festival. City Island won in 2019 and Brassil has since enjoyed/endured three runner up spots; he's only saddled 14 runners. IOAG was fourth behind Broadway Ted et al at DRF, held up before flattening out in the final furlong. He was only a bit more than three lengths from winning there, and this gorgeously bred (by Goliath du Berlais out of a Martaline mare) and expensive (€160,000 3yo store) gelding may appreciate better ground. So, too, might many in the field!

Champion Bumper Recent Winners

 

 

Champion Bumper Pace Map

Pinch of salt pace map...

Champion Bumper 2026 Pace Map

Champion Bumper 2026 Pace Map

Champion Bumper selection

I'm not going to pretend I have any idea what wins this. You might have half a chance if splitting a quid between the two DRF winners, Broadway Ted and Moonverrin. Both are attractive prices, both have strong form in race where lots are priced on potential, and one of them has Cheltenham virgin Sean Bowen steering.

 Suggestion: Split a small stake between Broadway Ted and Moonverrin, each way with extra places if you can get them. But, obviously, this is not a race to go mad in.

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And that's a wrap on Day 2. My thanks again to the five judges who have kindly shared their thoughts. Remember, the value game is not about a winner a race but a profit at the end of the year - let's hope also at the end of this week!

Good luck!

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day One Preview, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day One Preview, Tips

So, here we are again. The 2026 Cheltenham Festival draws ever closer and, after a million preview nights and just as many horses tipped, we are now on the very cusp of getting answers to those thorny questions. Remember, first race is a 1.20pm kick off each day, moved last year from the traditional ten-minutes-later slot...

I'm delighted to again welcome some guest writers to help me with the thought processes - and also a guest editor so that, for the first time in 15 years or so, I can attend the Festival as a racegoer primarily. My star-studded line up consists of:

Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Rory is a veritable encyclopedia of the sport and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.

David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our very own 'Roving Reporter'. In his more recent Trackside guise, he attends most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock looking for those that might be better, or worse, than the market suggests.

Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, ever in search of a tasty data morsel or three. You'll know him well already, and it's great to have him on Festival duty.

Gavin Priestley is a former bookmaker and head of FestivalTrends.co.uk, a site dedicated to, erm, using trends to find winners at Festivals...!

They are all extremely welcome back to geegeez.

The eagle-eyed will have spotted that they are collectively four, and that there are seven races daily. I'm afraid that leaves you with my thoughts for the remaining three races daily. Every silver lining has a cloud!

 

Also, a quick reminder about our Tix competition where you can win £100 each day.

The person who gets the highest odds winning ticket wins.

Minimum total daily stake £5 to qualify.

That means it's a level playing field for smaller and larger stakes players so everyone has the same chance of winning. Tix is here.

 

 

 

1.20 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The roar of the crowd. The excitement palpable. Jumpers for goalposts, hmm? Yes it's a little trite but that collective exhortation as the tapes rise really is a thing, and a wonderful one at that. We're off for the first of 28 top class equine ding-dongs. As Lesley Phillips might have said, ding dong indeed!

To business, and the Supreme score since 2013 is Willie Mullins 6, Nicky Henderson 3, Rest of Ireland 3, Rest of UK 1. And here we have a Nicky and Willie show to kick off a day where that's a pretty strong theme. Fittingly enough, they top the market, Henderson's Old Park Star pursued closely by Mullins' Mighty Park.

Old Park Star transferred from the Ditcheat base of Paul Nicholls to Lambourn last summer, since when he's unbeaten in three widening verdicts, the most recent brace of which were a dozen length almost course and distance score and an 18 length margin in the Grade 2 Rossington Main. That form is very clearly the pick of the domestic crop, and he sets a high bar for his Irish rivals to clear. Naturally enough, he may be capable of better yet. One point worth noting is his tendency to lead in his races; not since Champagne Fever and Vautour went back to back trap to line in 2014/15 has that run style succeeded. He did come from further back on his hurdling debut so is presumably not wedded to the front.

Mighty Park will try to give a perfect start to Willie, Irish punters, and JP McManus. As runner up in a maiden point and facile (38 lengths!) scorer in a maiden hurdle, his level of ability is pretty hard to peg. Good, obviously, but how good? Who honestly knows? He got a bumper RPR for that performance but a workaday Topspeed figure, and that is a snappy little vignette of what we're grappling with here. The visual romanticists are foaming at the mouth, the cold data hearts unmoved. Either could be right and, in the end, the price makes the play... or, in this case and for this scribe, doesn't. I doubt a horse has won a Supreme off a single hurdle start in living memory, though I don't know for sure. All that said, it's fair to assume that Willie's 'A' pick for the Supreme has a rare level of talent; whether he's streetwise enough to bring all of it in a cauldron like this is extremely moot.

Much more battle hardened is Talk The Talk, representing Joseph O'Brien and the Double Green of Munir/Souede (it's never Souede/Munir, is it? I wonder how Isaac feels about that...). After a prat fall at the last when announcing himself on the big stage in a Grade 1 at Christmas, he confirmed the impression of that day when mishap-free at the same venue and in the same grade at DRF. To win from where he did in a very steadily run affair was a very taking effort and this tactically versatile five-year-old looks to have a terrific gear change allied to a high cruising speed. That's usually the combination to unlock the Supreme, and he looks a serious player.

Another to take a dive and one I'm yet to warm to is El Cairos. It was a soft enough fall on St Stephen's Day at Leopardstown, but I'm less inclined to forgive his near reprisal at the last at Thurles five weeks later. Post race, jockey Jack Kennedy was full of remorse and deflected blame from his mount to himself; but good hurdlers deal with such situations better than El C did. His bumper form - fifth in the Champion Bumper at last year's Festival and second in a Punchestown Festival equivalent - shows him to be high class, though there's nothing to jump in bumpers. Not really for me.

There was no obvious reason to my eye why Mydaddypaddy should have been a shorter price than Idaho Sun, the latter a comfy enough victor over the former in the G1 Formby. Alas Harry Fry's hope misses the Festival with a niggle. I still don't like Skelton's Mydaddypaddy who is in deeper here than at Liverpool that day and couldn't get that job done. He has a stone or so to find on RPR's with Old Park Star.

If there's to be a British winner of this which isn't Old Park Star, maybe it will be Sober Glory. Barring a very poor effort at Sandown, he's won his other five races including three over hurdles. His most recent success, sauntering away from the decent Kadastral by 27 lengths puts him in the picture. The niggle with this chap is that the one time he was beaten over hurdles - and well beaten - was when he didn't lead. He did score twice in bumpers from midfield, but it's a bit of a question nonetheless... though I didn't have that in mind when I backed him, twice, ante post!

The talking horse on the preview circuit has been Leader d'Allier, and the chat has got louder since Paul Townend elected to ride him. To be fair, Townend wouldn't have been eligible to ride JP's Mighty Park, and it must have been a straightforward pick over a 66/1 shot in Too Bossy For Us. Still, Leader d'Allier has done nothing more than win a maiden hurdle, having been second in one the time before. He did win an AQPS Grade 3 bumper in France last summer but who knows what level that is?

Going all the way back to 2009 the winner has been 12/1 or shorter on all bar one occasion, so it's very likely one of the above. The likes of Baron Noir (who actually beat El Cairos in a bumper at the Punchestown Festival last spring), Eachtotheirown (last seen winning a handicap - not the prep ahead of Supreme glory) and the aforementioned Too Bossy For Us would be big shock winners. The first named could finish in the top five, though.

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Pace Projection

This is nearly always run at a fast clip from the outset, and it might be that two horses vying for favouritism - Mighty Park and Old Park Star - also vie for the early lead. Sober Glory has also been front rank recently.

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2026 Pace Map

 

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection

The best of British, for me, are Old Park Star (obvs!) and Sober Glory, while I think Talk The Talk has much the pick of the Irish form. Mighty Park was a wow in a nothing race and the Closutton vibes are strong (whatever that means). The winner of the novice races normally steps forward on known ability and that means a number of horses could win. The most likely winner is the favourite who fully deserves top market billing; but Talk The Talk looks the proverbial 'each way bet to nothing'.

Suggestion: Try Talk The Talk each way and in a forecast underneath Old Park Star.

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Matt's Tix Pix: Tix is a smart multi-race bet placement tool that is free to use. In this race, I'll have the favourite on A as well as Talk The Talk.

 

You can find Tix here

 

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2.00 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

Perennially a small field but a high quality contest, the Arkle is a thrill a minute race where it usually pays to race handily. This year's even looks a match on paper between the well tested five-year-old Lulamba and his less experienced over fences older rival, Kopek Des Bordes. It also looks a match between Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins.

Henderson saddles Lulamba, mugged in last year's Triumph Hurdle before exacting revenge on his conqueror, Poniros, at Punchestown. This season (proper) he's run thrice over fences, winning by daylight each time. A beginners' chase success at Exeter was tarnished a touch by low sun meaning the omission of a number of the obstacles, but there was no decrying his facile score in a Sandown Grade 1 in early December; and he again raised his game when taking on and beating seasoned chasers in the Grade 2 Game Spirit at Newbury.

On that latter occasion, he had to knuckle down in what were testing conditions; but knuckle down he did, looking stronger at the finish than at any point theretofore. Having won a hurdle race in France prior to heading to Lambourn, Lulamba is now six from seven, the only blemish being when Cheltenham chinning in the Triumph. As a prominent racer that doesn't need to lead, the race should be run perfectly to suit. A clear round gives him every chance of adding a sixth Arkle for Henderson since Sprinter Sacre in 2012. However, his jumping thus far has been quite novicey.

But this is no procession. Mullins, with six Arkles in the bag himself since 2015, will strive for a magnificent seven via Kopek Des Bordes, last season's Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner. The roll of honour below attests to the historical advantage six- and seven-year-olds have had over younger or older adversaries. Indeed, we're back to Voy Por Ustedes in 2006 for the last winning five-year-old; he was following a then well-trodden path, with Well Chief (2004), Flagship Uberalles (1999) and Champleve (1998) all scoring for the kindergarten kids.

But how many five-year-olds have run in the race in recent years? Not many. Seven since 2018, to be precise. It should be noted that the septet includes the super-talented Majborough, who could only finish third of five as the 2-1 on favourite last year in that great finish. The mare Riviere d'Etel was beaten at 7/2, Haut En Couleurs at 6/1, Allmankind at 5/1, Fakir d'Oudairies at 3/1, and Saint Calvados at 11/4 - all since 2018. Hmm... the difference, in case you didn't know, is that prior to 2008 five-year-olds were in receipt of 5lb weight for age.

Returning to Kopek, he has his own question mark in the shape of a 113 day layoff and only the one run over fences. Only the Pipe pair of Well Chief and Western Warhorse have won the Arkle off a single prep - but that's two winners from only 14 to try since 1997, so hardly the knock it first appears for all that experience can only be beneficial. And that game mare Put The Kettle On defied a day longer layoff so there's precedent there, too. The horse himself won at both DRF and the Cheltenham Festival last season, and was likely over the top by the time he showed up at Punchestown: one drink too many. He'll be fresh as paint this time, which could present a challenge, and attempts to emulate Douvan, Altior and Shishkin as Supreme/Arkle winners on the opening day of successive Festivals. There's little between the top two, each with bags of class and ability, but each with a little bit to prove.

What of the rest? The mare Kargese is another to have won at last year's Festival, her County Hurdle score being the only handicap run of her career. She was a dual Grade 1 winner as a juvenile hurdler, at Leopardstown and Punchestown, and ran Sir Gino to three lengths in between times: in other words, she was a top class hurdler.  Ignoring a moderate enough debut over fences (where she was bashed by Kala Conti), Kargese then won her beginners' chase - beating Lovely Hurling by a length more than did Kopek Des Bordes - before just failing to reel in Romeo Coolio in the G1 Irish Arkle at DRF. A feature of her season has been her efficient jumping and she definitely fits here with the 7lb mares' allowance; she can keep the main pair more than honest.

Sam Thomas has a very good one to work with in the shape of Steel Ally, a horse we were disappointed was able to run past our own Dartmoor Pirate with such relative ease this time two years ago. Thomas's Doctor Dino gelding is now rated two and a half stone higher than he was then, and has won four more times, so we can safely say we bumped into one. He's won small field novice chases, including a Grade 2 at Ascot, with notable ease on his most recent racecourse visits and he could be a little under-rated in the market. However, his best form is all on a softer surface (form on soft or heavy: 72P12111, form on good to soft or quicker: 251232PP). Moreover, it's his misfortune that 2026 could be a vintage Arkle with a star-studded headline act and some depth to the supporting cast.

Jax Junior was a winner over further in the Grade 2 Pendil at Kempton last time, so there are no doubts about stamina or the ground - it was good to soft that day. And he's a course winner from last season, that success coming in a novice hurdle. This is probably a little too hot but he's earned a tilt at the big time after Kempton.

You can ignore Mambonumberfive's last run when well beaten in a small field by Steel Ally, because he hated the heavy ground. Prior to that he'd won all three chase starts, including the G2 Wayward Lad at Kempton. I'd say he's probably better than a 33/1 shot but that doesn't mean I want to bet him in a race as deep as this.

Hansard looks the dreaded social runner, and has Everest to scale to trouble the judge in these waters. How's that for a mixed geographical metaphor?!

Arkle Recent Winners

 

 

Arkle Pace Projection

Kargeses is the most likely leader, though Hansard did go forward last time. I'd expect both Steel Ally and Kopek des Bordes will be handy, with Lulamba not far away - assuming he can live with the early zip.

2026 Arkle Pace Map

 

Arkle Chase Selection

Probably a three, rather than two, way go. Lulamba sets the clear form standard, but does he want further? Kopek Des Bordes is obviously a two-miler, as is Kargese. Kopek lacks experience, whereas Kargese has three chase runs under her belt. She might get an easy lead - Hansard the possible pace pressure - and, if getting into a good rhythm, could be a bit of value against the top two.

Suggestion: Try Kargese at around 9/2.

Matt's Tix Pix: Kargese and Kopek on A.

Check out Tix here >

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2.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

Ammes has followed a similar preparation to last year’s third, Liam Swagger. James Owen gave him three hurdle runs for a mark in the autumn, winning his first two before finishing second to leading Triumph Hurdle fancy Minella Study in the Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle at Wetherby, a race Liam Swagger won 12 months earlier.

Unlike his stablemate, Ammes failed to win on the all-weather in his prep run, but he posted a higher figure in defeat in a Class 2 handicap at Lingfield despite finishing only sixth. Timeform rate him 6lb higher on the Flat than Liam Swagger, while both they, and the BHA handicapper, have him 4lb above Liam Swagger’s mark last year, which looks fair. Owen is short of winners over jumps in recent weeks, but arrives at Cheltenham in strong form with his Flat team winning four times in the first week in March.

Saratoga represents the same connections who won this race with his half-brother Brazil (beat Gaelic Warrior) a few years ago and he prepped in a rated novice at Naas that has thrown up several winners of the Fred Winter. Not all those who won here had been successful at Naas however, and it’s worth noting that the weights for this are released after that contest. That means a few have gone in there with a view to getting a workable mark, and both Saratoga (2nd) and Munsif (3rd) caught the eye with a view to the future.

British stables have a stronger hand than usual in this, or so it appears, although the likes of Manlaga and Winston Junior have strong Irish connections. The former jumped notably well when beating Pourquoi Pas Papa in the Victor Ludorum while Winston Junior had run well behind Minella Study here before bolting up at Ascot and has been kept back for this since.

Fred Winter Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Fred Winter Hurdle Pace Projection

Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!

 

Fred Winter 2026 Pace Map

Fred Winter 2026 Pace Map

 

Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle selection

Both Winston Junior and Ammes should run well, but my preference, on a line through Minella Study, is for Ammes. He was just denied at Wetherby off levels, whereas Winston Junior was beaten 6½ lengths by Minella Study when getting 7lb at Cheltenham. Ammes comes out as comfortably the better horse, not allowing for subsequent progress all round admittedly. He is receiving 3lb from Faye Bramley’s juvenile however, which makes my choice fairly straightforward.

Suggestion: 1pt e/w Ammes @ 8/1 (Bet365 - 6 places; 7/1 general)

Matt's Tix Pix: A lot of horses across A and B!

Check out Tix here >

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3.20 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

The Ultima is the first handicap chase of the meeting and in these races I find the best starting point to be the past race trends. This helps build a picture of the type of horse we normally need to look for.

This is a race where British trainers have dominated, winning every renewal since 2007. The last Irish winner was Tony Martin’s Dun Doire in 2006.

Lucinda Russell has a great record in the race having won three of the last four. In 2022 and 2023 Corach Rambler prevailed for the stable and last year it was Myretown. Previous to these successes, Lucinda saddled four other runners, priced 20/1, 28/1, 16/1 and 25/1, finishing 4th, 4th, 5th and 6th respectively.

Away from trainers, let me look at some other past trends from this race:

  • Irish bred runners have made up 58% of the runners over the past 18 renewals and 88% (16) of the races have been won by Irish bred horses, showing their dominance.
  • 14 of the last 18 winners finished in the first four last time out. Horses that finished 7th or worse last time out have a poor record with just 1 win from 124 runners.
  • From a market perspective, 14 of the last 18 winners have come from the top five in the betting. Backing all the top five runners in the market over this timeframe would have yielded a BSP profit of £41.03 (ROI 41.9%). 9 of the last 12 were one of the top three in the betting.
  • Horses wearing blinkers, cheekpieces and/or tongue ties have outperformed those wearing no headgear, so don’t be put off by if a horse is wearing equipment.
  • Age wise, 7yos and 8yos have provided 66.7% of the winners, from 52% of the runners. They seem to have a slight edge.
  • Past Cheltenham form is worth noting generally at the festival and that has been the case here. Previous course winners have been 1.8x more likely to win this race than horses that had not won here. Previous course winners or placed horses have been 2.5x more likely to win than horses that have not won or placed at the track.

Now let’s look at the run style data for the last 10 renewals. I personally think the previous decade for past run style analysis is a sensible time frame to use. The last 10 races give the following splits:

Although the majority of runners will race in mid division or be held up, being ridden closer to the pace has been preferable in the past, both from a win and a place perspective.

The shortlist:

Jagwar - He passes most of the key trends, but he is French bred rather than the ideal Irish bred and his run style may not be the optimum. Having said that, he seems to love Cheltenham with a course form figures of 1132. He also won at the festival last year. He tackles this trip for the first time, but the general consensus is he will stay and the vibes have been really positive from the stable. He is favourite for a reason.

Iroko - The 2025 Grand National 4th hails from the same stable as Jagwar and is currently second favourite. As with his stablemate, he is French bred but again hits most of the key trends. He is a previous winner at Cheltenham and was sent off favourite for the Grand National last year. He had found winning difficult recently, with no wins in eight runs, but he bounced back to form in December when he won the Howden Graduation Chase at Ascot.

Handstands - Trainer Ben Pauling is very sweet on this one, having been quoted as saying the horse is extremely well in here. He is an excellent trainer of handicap chasers and despite the horse’s form not being seemingly as good as last year, he looks a player dropped into handicap company. He’s likely to track the pace, which is a positive in my book.

Myretown - Last year’s winner is the only runner the stable has this time around. He’s 15lb higher now and has run poorly in two of his three subsequent starts since that success. Can’t be ruled out based on past trainer data, but not for me.

Leave Of Absence - Any 3m handicap chaser trained by Anthony Honeyball is always worth a second look. His strike rate at this sort of distance since 2022 is just shy of 20%. Leave Of Absence would ideally like the going to be good to soft or good, so should get his conditions. He looks one of the better options at bigger prices, especially looking at his penultimate run at Ascot, where he was a very good 2nd in a decent contest. Likely to be up there tracking the pace, which is another plus in all likelihood.

Ultima Recent Winners

 

 

Ultima Pace Projection

An even looking tempo overall, though a lot of perennially prominent racers may push things on from the start.

 

Ultima 2026 Pace Map

 

Ultima Handicap Chase Selection

Suggestion: 1pt win Jagwar & 0.5pt win Handstands

Matt's Tix Pix: A's only and not straying far from the top of the market.

Check out Tix here >

 

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4.00 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The centre piece of day one is the Champion Hurdle, an extended two mile test of speed, jumping alacrity and no little stamina. All of those components are critical, as was so quintessentially evidenced a year ago when first Constitution Hill and then State Man failed to get round. Golden Ace was a fortunate beneficiary on the day but she keeps standing up and, in so doing, keeps beating some of the best boys and girls on the block.

This year's race is an inscrutable puzzle, where we must first consider form and then fit. As we'll see, those with the numbers have something to prove on the stage, while those with the best Prestbury performances have a fair bit to do on the data.

Towards the top of the market is The New Lion, a snug fit to track and trip but with question marks on the form book. Now seven, he's won all six of his completed starts - including in the Turners twelve months ago and in a trial here in January. He was desperately unimpressive on Trials day but, to his credit, did get the job done (after odds on favourite Sir Gino stepped in a hole and had to be pulled up). The verdict was a length and a half over an 18/1 shot rated 151, with a further nose back to a 50/1 chance rated 138. That is, literally, a stone below what is required.

But how literal should we be? The problem with TNL is that he's not flashy. He never wins by far. Indeed, his margins of victory have been 4.75L, 3L, 4.75L, 0.75L, and 1.5L. Constitution Hill, by comparison, won by 22L, 17L, 14L, and 12L twice in the early part of his career. But you don't get bonus points for how far...

My issue is that he's only beaten stayers and I don't think he's fast enough. He beat Wendigo, fancied for the three mile Brown Advisory over fences; he beat The Yellow Clay, entered in the Stayers'; and he beat Nemean Lion, most of whose best form is at two and a half in a bog. The New Lion retains plenty of upside potential, but I cannot have him as the favourite even in a puzzle as wacky as this one.

Representing Team Form is Brighterdaysahead, infamously beaten twice at the Festival and famously "the best I've trained" according to Gordon, who has had many, many good ones. She was electric in beating Lossiemouth more than three lengths at the Dublin Racing Festival; but she was equally good when blitzing a weaker field by 30 lengths on her pre-Festival prep a year prior. BDA has been beaten at the last two Cheltenham Festivals, at 5/2 and 5/6, and people have said that she doesn't handle the track. That's a very credible assumption, but correlation does not imply causation. There are alternative theories...

Regarding defeat in the Dawn Run of 2024, it is unquestionably true that Jack Kennedy was eying Paul Townend, aboard perceived sole danger Jade de Grugy. While they cat-and-moused about, Lorcan Williams pulled a stealth move from the rear and Golden Ace, his very willing and able partner, charged past catching both kitty and squeaky napping.

A year later and, though we didn't know it at the time, it was to be a rematch between Golden Ace and Brighterdaysahead, both Connie and State Man failing to complete. As you can see from the replay below, BDA was stopped to a walk by State Man's last flight tumble and would otherwise have been second. However, there's no escaping the flatness of that effort when set against the main body of her work: she has five better Racing Post Ratings as a barometer of that assertion.

So what went wrong? Well, it could be the track, of course. But a viable counter theory is that she 'bounced' off a massive run at the end of December, that distance annihilation of State Man, Winter Fog et al in a G1. Failing to run to form after a career best is a common theme in racing, and it fits what happened here. I'm not saying that was the reason, but I am saying it might well have been.

 

 

If that was the case, though, we have another small issue: Brighterdaysahead again ran mightily in that tough G1 at DRF where she showed Lossiemouth her capable derriere. That was a mere 37 days ago and it is far from inconceivable she has again left her Champion Hurdle chance on the outskirts of Dublin. Nevertheless, she does have the best form in the race.

Lossiemouth had a similarly hard race in defeat that day and, furthermore, I've convinced myself that she needs two and a half miles. Indeed, Rich Ricci's racing manager was quoted on Nick Luck's poddie as saying, "I think everyone agrees she's better at two and a half miles." So it's pretty reckless - or ballsy - stuff to run her in the championship two mile race when it's not her best trip. I'm pretty sure that a steadily run three miles, such as often transpires in the Stayers' Hurdle, would be ideal for her, and I think connections have missed a trick in not considering her for that race.

In her favour is bombproof course form, having won the Triumph (2m1f, I know), and the Mares' Hurdle twice. Soft ground is definitely beneficial to her cause, but even in an unfathomable year she's not for me for all that she's the one which brings both form and some sort of fit to the party. My feeling, or at least the way I want to bet, is that either strongest form or strongest fit wins the day; and if you take my trip reservation to heart she is a compromise on both. Cheek pieces are added this time, in a bid to sharpen her up; but a horse that cannot go faster, cannot go faster. She'll be an 'egg on face' winner in these quarters.

We need to talk more about Golden Ace, another with a perfect fit but slightly questionable form credentials. It's hard to crab a mare that has two upset Festival scores on her card, and that is yet to be out of the first two in eight races at around two miles (11112212). And she deserves all the plaudits for twice passing Brighterdaysahead up this hill. Indeed, bar a match race at Wetherby (where she was found to be not right subsequently), she's only been beaten by State Man and Sir Gino at this range over hurdles. Neither of that pair can attend this year, unfortunately, and if there is one horse in the line up that looks nailed on to run their race - to be fair, there may not even be one, it's that sort of year! - it's her. She will be very hard to kick out of the frame for all that it feels like we should be trying to get her off the top step of the podium.

This game is about opinions, and my opinion is that Poniros is as bogus as they come. He would need five horses to under-perform, or to improve a stone near enough, to win the Champion Hurdle. I've already outlined how each of the top fancies might under-perform, but it's very difficult to see them all failing to deliver. This lad fell in by some miracle in the Triumph Hurdle, at 100/1, and has failed to back it up twice since. A four length reversal of form at the hooves of Lulamba reads well enough in terms of four-year-old hurdle lines, but he was 14 lengths behind Brighterdaysahead last time.

It's true that he might have had less of a hard race than either BDA or Lossie there, and that he might be better on better ground, and that Tony Bloom has golden sphericals... but this would rate as one of Willie's gweatest wabbits fwom a hat if he could win the Champion with a five-year-old that has only had three hurdles starts, two of them defeats.

The handicappers Alexei and Tutti Quanti will try to 'do a Rooster Booster', that horse emerging from the weight-for-ability ranks to take the Blue Riband. In Rooster's case, however, he'd won the County Hurdle the year before and had been running in conditions races - up to G1 level - for a full season by the time he reappeared at the Festival. Alexei - "Ullo John, gotta new motor?" (I fully appreciate a lot of these yesteryear references will be lost on many, here's the video which I think is worth the telepathic joke before the 'song') - was alextric at Cheltenham in the Greatwood Hurdle in November, cruising through the race against 17 rivals and charging away at the finish.

He might have still been feeling that a touch when only third off top weight in an Ascot G3 handicap at Christmas; and on his most recent run he showed the legs were still in each corner with a satisfactory defeat of good old stick Rubaud in the Kingwell. A rating of 150-odd gives him plenty still to find with the pick of the mares once their allowance is factored in; only six, if he can keep progressing he could be next year's man. I did back him for this after the Greatwood at a bigger price than he is now, but I don't especially think he has a better chance than at that time.

Tutti Quanti also steps out of handicap company; actually, to give him his due, he bounds out having demolished the Schweppes/Betfair/William Hill Hurdle field by 15 lengths last time, a performance that has nudged his official peg up to 151. To give some context, Brighterdaysahead is 160 on the Irish scale, Lossiemouth 159 on the same - both also receive 7lb sex allowance. The New Lion is 159, Poniros 153 (Ire), Anzadam 153 (Ire), Golden Ace 152 (gets 7lb), Alexei 148, and Workahead 145. Phew.

The point I'm making here is that, assuming at least one of the main trio performs to their level (not a given), Tutti Quanti needs to progress another 10lb. He's only six so that's conceivable but often what knocks the eye out - as his last day win did - fails to pass the sniff test, to mix my sensory metaphors. Moreover, TQ's best form has been on rain softened ground.

And Mullins still has the, erm, mercurial - yes, let's call him mercurial - Anzadam card to play. He's been notoriously difficult to train but, seemingly sounder this campaign, was second to Golden Ace in the Fighting Fifth and then fourth behind Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth in their two Leopardstown Grade 1's. What makes him worth a second glance is that he probably had the easiest - or least hard - race in the Irish Champion Hurdle at DRF and it could be contended that his best form is on a sound surface. In a race where we're making excuses for just about all of them, that doesn't feel like too much of a stretch.

Workahead is saddled by the best Festival trainer of the last five years not called Willie, but even Henry's magic won't be enough to get this lad up the hill in front second time around.

 

Champion Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Champion Hurdle Pace Projection

A few that can go forward but none that need the lead; so my guess is a solid even gallop - fair for all.

 

Champion Hurdle 2026 Pace Map

 

Champion Hurdle Selection

This is so difficult. Brighterdaysahead has the best two mile form but reservations remain about her Cheltenham runs as well as how hard a race she had last time; ditto Lossiemouth on the last day exertion and her best form is over further and possibly on softer. The New Lion hasn't run a number to be the price he is though he remains completely unexposed; and Golden Ace is a mare we're all trying to get beaten in spite of her running her race every time.

I have managed to discount Poniros and Workahead, but small bits of each way cases can be made for each of Alexei, Tutti Quanti and especially Anzadam.

Suggestion: It's as much of a no bet race as ever there was; but that's not in the spirit of things. I'd chance Brighterdaysahead from the head of the market, and maybe play Anzadam each way for the minimum stake your bookmaker will accept.

Matt's Tix Pix: Lossiemouth, Golden Ace and The New Lion on A, Brighterdaysahead on B. Not confident!

Check out Tix here >

 

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4.40 Festival Plate (Class 1 handicap, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley.

There's been just one horse on my mind for this race since October and it's a Dan Skelton runner that has been in woeful form for most of the season. He began the year putting up a remarkable performance that really caught my eye, when he won at lowly Newton Abbot, and I’m banking on a return to form here.

Previously, he had won a Grade 3 Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham April meeting and finished 4th in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen last year, before winning that Intermediate Chase at Newton Abbot.

And that's where his struggles began. It turns out that beating a 12lb superior runner on ratings and long odds on favourite (Blueking d'Oreaux) while actually giving that rival 12lb(!) doesn't help your handicap mark too much. Who knew?!

Dan Skelton does now, but he has been doing a great job rectifying his mistake and getting Riskintheground back down to the same 137 mark he won that Grade 3 Handicap Chase at Cheltenham's April meeting last year. He also ran 7th in a big Novice Handicap at Sandown and 4th in the Summer Plate off 139, between Cheltenham and Newton Abbot.

After his surprise Newton Abbot win he was put up to 145, but was 3lb well in thanks to a penalty when probably not staying the 3m2f in the big handicap chase at Newbury (formerly the Hennessey) on his next start. He will be better suited to the drop back to 2m5f here.

He then made a bad mistake at the third last on his following run at Cheltenham, off his true 145 mark, before weakening in the last half furlong. Back down to 142, Dan Skelton ran him on soft ground at Cheltenham on Trials Day, where he finished second last to get another 2lb reduction to 140.

The next piece of the master plan was running him on heavy ground at Newbury in the Grade 2 Denman Chase. Despite being the clear lowest rated runner in the field, he had to give two of the four runners weight. He carried the same weight as 164 rated L'Homme De Presse and actually gave 2lb to the eventual winner (and Gold Cup bound) Haiti Coleurs. Unsurprisingly, he ended up finishing a (tailed off) last of 4.

But alas, the handicapper wasn't buying it and left his rating unchanged at 140. That probably didn't please Skelton too much, as he's repeatedly said he doesn't think the horse has anything in hand at the moment. He declared him to run in the Ascot Chase but took him out at the 48 hour declarations, as he probably thought the handicapper wouldn't drop him a pound even if he finished tailed off again. I doubt he wanted to risk another slog in the mud this near to the Festival.

So he sent him to Kempton instead for the Ladbrokes Handicap Chase, where he finished tailed off there instead. This time the handicapper was a believer and dropped him the last 2lbs to leave him on a very eyecatching 137. Dan Skelton was last seen patting himself on the back. Phase 1 complete!

Festival Plate Recent Winners

 

 

Festival Plate Pace Map

 

Festival Plate 2026 Pace Map

Festival Plate 2026 Pace Map

 

Festival Plate Selection

Given the better Spring ground (barely beaten a rival on his last three runs on soft/heavy), the return to Cheltenham and the Skelton magic, I’m banking on Riskintheground being ready to go on Tuesday. This is coming up to his time of year and I see him running a big race for a stable who are really beginning to focus on these Festival handicaps. I think it's been the plan all season.

Suggestion: Riskintheground - 0.5 points each way at 40/1

Matt's Tix Pix: Five on A, and five more on B. At least!

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5.20 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)

Previewed by David Massey.

Sue Smith knows what it takes to train a Festival handicap winner, as demonstrated with Mister McGoldrick & Vintage Clouds. Her expertise, along with the partnership with her grandson Joel Parkinson that has seen an uptick in the yard’s fortunes this year, mean Grand Geste gets my vote here.

Bar a blip at Doncaster, when he just wasn’t right for whatever reason, he’s improved with each start this season. He was very impressive when winning the Tommy Whittle at Haydock back in December, putting in an excellent round of jumping from the front and beating a resurgent My Silver Lining by six and a half lengths.

The way he came clear in the straight suggested stamina was his strong suit, and he did nothing to dispel that suspicion when winning the Grand National Trial back at Haydock last month, for all that turned into more of a speed test than is normally the case. In fact, I’d mark him up a bit for having the tactical speed to cope that day, and a 6lb rise looks more than fair.

Good to soft ground, usually a certainty for Day One (barring an unexpected downpour on the day), seems to suit him very well. Plus, this is a partnership that knows how to train staying chasers, with the likes of O’Connell and Konfusion winning for them in extreme tests this season.

Walking On Air, who has finished fifth in a Pertemps Final here in 2023 and last year was midfield in the Kim Muir (when arguably not getting the best of rides), has to be of some interest too. After a couple of poor efforts this year, it was much better at Doncaster last time. The addition of some cheekpieces seemingly the catalyst in finishing third to Dartmoor Pirate, not knocked around late on by Brian Hughes. He’ll need the headgear to work again, but is nicely treated, and will have been teed up to a nicety by Faye Bramley here. Harry Cobden was booked to ride a few days ago, and that's hardly a negative to his chances either.

On paper, Backmersackme is the best of the Irish challenge and does have a decent piece of Cheltenham chase form to his name, having finished second to Three Card Brag here back in October. After a ready win in a Grade 3 Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, the handicapper has reacted with a 10lb rise. There’s no Sean Bowen to help out this time either, with Sean being claimed by Olly Murphy to ride top weight Wade Out. Indeed, his pilot on Tuesday, Donagh Meyler, does not have the best of form figures on Backmersackme, reading 664546, which hardly inspires confidence in a bet at the price.

From the Irish runners, I think I’d rather have Paul Nolan’s Iceberg Theory as he does have quite a few plus points. Not least his form over fences this season, which has seen him win two of his three starts. That form couldn’t have worked out much better either. He beat Gordon Elliott’s Boston Rover at Limerick last May and the runner-up went and won his next three before finding sticky ground at Limerick not to his liking. He then went and beat the useful O’Toole at Cork in November after a break, that form franked when the second won the Listed QuinnBet Handicap Chase at Leopardstown last week.

He goes well fresh, seems to act on any ground, and remains unexposed as a staying chaser. Plenty to like at twice the price and more of Backmersackme.

National Hunt Chase Recent Winners

NB This race was a non-handicap before 2025.

 

 

National Hunt Chase Pace Projection

 

NH Chase 2026 Pace Map

NH Chase 2026 Pace Map

 

National Hunt Chase Selection

Selection: Grand Geste @ 14/1 general

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That's how I, along with the guest brains, see Tuesday's action. Seven very open races so it's entirely feasible we miss our mark - enjoy the ride, and caveat emptor, dear reader.

Stay lucky
Matt

Taking a Flyer on the 2026 Cheltenham Festival

/in , /by

With the 2025 Cheltenham Festival now fading out of sight in the rear view mirror, and with Aintree and, gasp, the flat season emerging on the horizon, now is a perfect moment to have a quick think about the 2026 Cheltenham ante post markets.

There's obviously any amount of unpredictability to be visited on the scene in the ensuing 360-odd days but that's accounted for at least to some degree in the prices, all of which affords a small swing at a big payoff. I won't be tying up much capital in this venture, but it's a bit of fun and could give us plenty of highs and lows as the narrative plays out through Aintree, Punchestown and then the Autumn, Winter and Spring of 2025/6.

First things first: I'm not interested in the novice hurdle races. None of the last three Supreme winners had any degree of public profile a year prior to their successes, and the hokey cokey between Baring Bingham and Albert Bartlett is a targets guessing game nobody can win. The novice chases offer slightly more hope but even there we've the challenge of knowing which are natural hedge hoppers and which will stay over hurdles.

Best then to focus on the open championship events: the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and Gold Cup. Here's goes (next to) nothing...

Champion Hurdle 2026

This looks likely to be a very open division next season. Constitution Hill has not come back to his old form, though he has kept on winning - barring that tumble last week. He'll only be nine next year and has few miles on the clock for various reasons; but he's been famously tough to get right and is readily opposed in the context of a project like this.

State Man is the same age as Connie and would have been an unambiguous winner this year but for that last flight brain fart from Townend (just my opinion). That performance was a surprise in one way but not in another. After all, he was the reigning champ in spite of a middling season; and, once Constitution Hill had exited he had only Brighterdaysahead to beat on the form book. Her position in the market owed everything to trainer Gordon Elliott's high regard and to a single thirty length win that was very, very hard to interpret literally. She'll surely go to the Mares' Hurdle, or chasing, next season.

Golden Ace was the beneficiary of the champ's late departure. I loved the story, but I don't think for a second she'll be good enough to defend her crown. So we're looking for a new champion, on my reading anyway.

The top four in the current ante post lists are Con Hill, The New Lion, Lossiemouth and Kopek Des Bordes. Let's first deal with Lossiemouth. To my eye, she wants at least two and a half miles and if connections are seeking a championship she should be going up, not down, in trip. We'll get to that in due course. She was outpaced at Kempton behind Constitution Hill, and she fluffed her lines for no credible reason when going hoof to hoof with State Man. At a tempo that suited far better, in the 2m4f Mares' Hurdle, she waltzed away from a smart mare in Jade De Grugy without in any way suggesting her stamina bottom had been reached.

The New Lion has to be in the argument after what was an impressive win in the Turners (Baring Bingham). That's not been as good a trial for the Champion Hurdle as some have made out, the only recent winner to double up in the Champion in recent times being Faugheen in 2014/15. Another novice, Kopek Des Bordes, is as short as 4/1 and as long as 10/1 to win next year's Champion Hurdle, perhaps summing up the challenges of identifying race plans. The aforementioned C Hill did the Supreme/Champion Hurdle double in 2022/23 and this lad looks highly promising... if he stays hurdling.

I'm not at all convinced by Triumph winner Poniros at this stage, though he may yet develop into a five-year-old Champion Hurdler; but one Festival winner that is worth a second look in this market is Kargese. Her form has been under-rated - she's a dual Grade 1 scorer and hasn't been out of the first two in ten runs - in spite of a tendency to over-race. She easily won the County Hurdle off a mark of 141, the exact same County mark from which State Man prefaced his Champion Hurdle score a year later. True, he had more of a 'dark horse' profile but Kargese's form is really, really good (I noted in my County Hurdle preview how I felt last year's juveniles generally, and her in particular, had perhaps been underrated).

She'll have to improve a stone and more from an official mark of around 145 and she might be kept to mares' only races and aimed at the Mares' Hurdle. In her case, as one who tends to pull quite a bit, a shorter faster test might be just the ticket. She'd get the 7lb mares' allowance if running in the Champion Hurdle and would be bidding to emulate Golden Ace, Honeysuckle, Epatante and Annie Power who between them won five of the last ten Champion Hurdles. Importantly, she's a price - 33/1 - for a throwaway dart.

Suggestions: Many of these have some sort of chance if lining up a year from now. But, in a number of cases - notably Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead, Lossiemouth, and perhaps Kopek Des Bordes - they are either fragile or have other potential routes. State Man will be a year older and the race fell in his lap this year, before he declined the opportunity. Poniros might be more credible if winning at Punchestown but I'm not quite subscribing to him yet; and Golden Ace was a glorious advertisement for buying a lottery ticket, but should be lottery odds to do it again.

That leaves me with The New Lion and, more tentatively, Kargese.

Back The New Lion at 7/1 win only. For tiny stakes, try Kargese at 33/1 win only.

 

Queen Mother Champion Chase 2026

The Champion Chase is a favourite's graveyard, seven odds-on shots getting turned over in the past decade. And yet the game remains to try to get a horse to the race at a shorter - ideally, much shorter - price than was taken.

An obvious starting point is this year's winner, Marine Nationale, who was winning the argument with Quilixios when that one came down at the last, eventually scoring by a slightly misleading 18 lengths. Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort and he'll be following the precedent of both Altior and Energumene in trying double up aged nine next season. If he gets to the gig, he'll have leading claims.

Jonbon would have been much closer if he'd not rearranged the furniture in the back straight. But would he have beaten the winner? Possibly, but not definitely. In any case, he'll be ten next year and that list of excuses for getting beaten at Cheltenham is growing.

The absent and much-missed Sir Gino is 7/2 favourite in ante post lists. Given that, as far as I'm aware, he only came out of an equine hospital on Monday, he wouldn't be a huge pile shorter than 7/2 to race again, let alone win a Festival Grade 1. I really, really hope he does get back, and that he retains his ability; but his quote in this market is ludicrous. He's half the price of the demonstrably alive and kicking winner from last week!

Back in the real world, there's a strong argument to be made that Majborough would have won the Arkle but for bungling two out - you've got to jump 'em! - and that, therefore, 8/1 about his Champion Chase chance is a sliver of value. Sizing Europe did the Arkle/Queen Mother double in 2010/11 and, since then, so too have Sprinter Sacre and Altior. Of course, Maj would not be reprising those multi-year heroics because he didn't complete the first part of the job; but the Arkle remains a rock solid Champion Chase trial.

Gaelic Warrior has a big squiggle against him though it surprised me to discover he's still only seven, so will be eight next year. Age won't stop him, then, but he's not an ante post conveyance by any measure of the phrase. If Fact To File doesn't go to the Gold Cup - presumably after winning the King George - then the game's up: a fit FTF is unlikely to go shorter than a repeat Ryanair tilt, so I can't have him on my mind for the two mile championship.

Ballyburn is Pirandello's idea of a character in search of an author. I'm sure he knows the part he was born to play, but seemingly none charged with his care do. That's grossly unfair, of course, and I merely mean that there's a lack of clarity around where best to crystalise Ballyburn's undeniable ability. I feel it might be over hurdles and over further. But, like those closer to the decision making than me, I don't really know (though I'm pretty sure it's not two miles and fences).

Il Est Francais is a big no here, even though they might try. He's very in and out, and a repeat attempt at a King George - which so nearly paid off - ought to be on the cards. That would be a weird warm up for a Champion Chase.

Although he's not quite for me, Solness has been somewhat discarded in this market. He won two Grade 1's in the run up to Cheltenham and, with a more measured campaign next season, could definitely emerge as a contender. I get the impression his rise this term took connections somewhat by surprise leaving him possibly a tad over-cooked when Cheltenham came around. He'll only be eight next March and he should not be 40/1.

At the other end of the pace spectrum is Jango Baie. He got what for me was the ride of the meeting from Nico de Boinville in winning the Arkle. As a strong stayer who probably wants 2m4f, the plan at the outset was to lead and set a searching gallop. But when a couple of others wanted to do that, Nico reined his lad in and let them have at it in front of him. He hunted around off the pace until after the second last and then came with one withering run to mow down the flagging pugilists up top. I'm by no means his biggest fan, but this was a deliberate and masterful piece of steering from NdB.

Anyway, the point is that the Champ Chase can be run in similar fashion and that would allow a reprisal of this performance for Jango Baie were he to be invited here rather than the more obvious Ryanair. He would actually be bidding for the Arkle/Champion Chase double!

Suggestions: Sir Gino may rise to the top of this tree but he has much further to climb than most in order to achieve that. Apart from wagering, I seriously hope he does. I thought he might have won the Champion Hurdle this year but, as we know, connections opted for a different path. He makes a market that is 7/1 bar him in a race which rarely gets more than eight or nine runners. If you can get one to the start line, then, you have half (or, more correctly, a third of) a chance of hitting the frame.

This is pretty simple for me in terms of long range ante post. Marine Nationale must be on the ticket, and so must Majborough. Tiny tickles at huge prices on Solness and Jango Baie are not without merit.

Back Marine Nationale at 7/1 win only. Back Majborough at 8/1 win only.

Maybe limp in with either or both of 33/1 Jango Baie and/or 40/1 Solness.

 

 

Stayers' Hurdle 2026

I've put 6/1 Teahupoo (soft ground), 12/1 Ballyburn (in case he reverts to hurdles) and 20/1 Lossiemouth (this is the race for her in 2026, I just need to persuade Willie!) in some very speculative trebles but couldn't sensibly recommend you do likewise. All of the caveats very much emptored.

Gold Cup 2026

Back on a punting footing which could be described as at least relatively terra firma next to the Stayers' Hurdle market, the 2026 Gold Cup is unlikely to suddenly deliver a swathe of new candidates for primacy.

Inothewayurthinkin was a clear and unambiguous winner last week, and even if the wonderful Galopin Des Champs was a touch under par (which I certainly feel he was), the young buck holds all the cards going into next season. Galopin will be eligible for veterans' races from January 2026, as will third placed Gentlemansgame, fifth placed The Real Whacker and seventh placed Banbridge. Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor already have their bus passes, as it were.

Monty's Star will be nine and could not be fully discounted given a very wet Festival Friday, but his form is not as good as Inothewayurthinkin and he doesn't have the upside potential either. Looking at the Gold Cup winner's form profile this season, there's a case to be made for him drifting in price between now and next March - he was beaten by diminishing margins in each of his three pre-Cheltenham races this term - and that tempers ante post enthusiasm a little at this stage. On the other hand, were those defeats with a workable Grand National mark in mind?

Also in the green and gold is the Ryanair winner, Fact To File. Last year's Broadway (RSA as was) Novices' Chase winner at three miles was pointed at the shorter G1 last week, and fair bolted up in that assignment. Indeed, it was probably - or at least arguably - the performance of the meeting. I'm not totally convinced he'll last an extra six furlongs in the Gold Cup, but there cannot be another race to entertain him in at this stage.

Galopin is highly unlikely to be able to get a third Gold Cup aged ten and 8/1 is a sucker price, I'm afraid. Fastorslow has tended to be slow when overmatched; Grey Dawning was pulled up in the King George and ducked Cheltenham for pot hunting at Kelso - that doesn't put him in the Gold Cup picture; Majborough would be very doubtful to go this far aged six; and the rest are going to need to find a stone from somewhere which, while not impossible - I've suggested Kargese can maybe do that in the Tuesday feature - feels unlikely in their, typically more exposed, cases.

Suggestions: Few things in life are as simple as first meets the eye, so there's an above average chance I'm not giving this enough consideration. With that said, it looks an open and shut case for the two green and gold Festival winners in open Grade 1 chases last week. Yes, they're short (about 9/4 dutched), but if they stay healthy (a reasonably sized 'if', granted) they are head and shoulders above what we know of the others, the venerable veteran dual champ aside.

Back Fact To File at 6/1 win only.

Hold fire on Inothewayurthinkin at 5/1 as he could drift after a defeat early next season. That would be the time to bet him, at nearer 10/1. [Galopin went out to 6/1 after getting beaten in the John Durkan first time up last season]

 

 

Summary

It's all a bit of fun this far out - and indeed much closer to the day - so if you feel like following me in, keep it small and manageable is my advice. If one of them wins, it'll pretty much pay for the rest losing. And, because I love a bit of mugginess, I've permed a few of them in wildly ambitious trebles: well, faint heart never won fair maiden and all that.

At the very least, a bet like this gives us something to look forward to, and to shout about, in the year-long buildup to the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. That in itself is worth a small cheer!

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips

/in , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips

And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.

Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...

1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

Previewed by Matt Tombs.

The Triumph Hurdle changed complexion hugely with the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005. The average field size in the previous decade was 26. In the Fred Winter era that average has shrunk to 16, and just 13 in the last decade. All races evolve so we need to be careful when using trends that include renewals from a long time ago - for the Triumph it is often best to calculate trends starting in 2005. Incredibly, this year there are 18 slated to face the starter.

Possibly the biggest under-bet factor in juvenile hurdles more generally is that, being so young, these horses often develop more during the season than older novices – and they develop at different times. It’s not uncommon for juveniles to go backwards as they develop physically. With so many more of the juveniles now being jumps-bred rather than having had a long career on the flat nowadays I think that’s a factor that’s likely to keep increasing in importance.

It is therefore a division to be particularly open-minded about whether form will be repeated. In the Triumph that question is especially impacted by the quality of the trials. Britain has four Grade 2 and five Listed trials for the Triumph. These races often lack depth: this century all nine Triumph winners that contested a British Grade 2, won that Grade 2.

In Ireland it’s a different story. The programme is designed to funnel the best horses together and typically a lot run in the Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival. Since it became a Grade 1 in 2010, it’s produced nine Triumph winners but only three were doing the double. Put another way, backing Grade 1 Spring winners in the Triumph would have lost you 30% of your betting bank, whereas backing the losers would have made you a 106% profit.

The Spring is run in early February and, given the ‘development factor’ I outlined above, another trend is to focus on recent Graded form more widely. You might think that Graded form (including Grade 1 winning form) in the novice and juvenile Grade 1s at the Festival would be so obvious as to be over-bet. But that’s often not the case – for example, if since 2005 in the Triumph you’d backed every unbeaten hurdler that had won a Graded hurdle, you’d have made a +23 (79% ROI) profit.

However, if you restricted that to unbeaten hurdlers who had won a Graded hurdle since the turn of the year the record improves to +28 (117% ROI) and would have identified the same eight winners.

East India Dock won the Grade 2 Finesse in great style in January. He likes a sound surface, is proven at the track and on form he arguably has enough in hand to suggest he should be odds-on here.

Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners

Triumph Hurdle Pace Map

A big field and should be lots of pace on. East India Dock tends to lead in his races but I don't think he needs to. Should track and get first run. Obviously, Willie has plenty of tactical options with his ELEVEN runners!

Triumph Hurdle Selection

East India Dock should be shorter on form, some of the horses around him owe their price more to reputation than track performances.

Suggestion: Back East India Dock to win at 2/1 or bigger.

Matt's Tix Pix: East India Dock on A, a couple of alternates on B

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2.00 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The formerly indecipherable County Hurdle has been rendered a coin flip between Messrs Mullins, W., and Skelton, D. in recent times. Indeed, in a race typically with 20+ runners, it's faintly bonkers that they've gobbled up nine of the most recent ten renewals. Willie also won it in 2010 and 2011 for good measure.

True, they tend to come mob-handed, but their winners have been 12/1, 33/1, 11/4, 11/2, 12/1, 33/1, 20/1, 8/1 and 25/1.

Five- and six-year-olds - in other words, seriously unexposed horses - have generally been the winning ticket, though they've also saddled three eight-year-old winners between them, at odds of 33/1, 12/1 and 20/1. So if not a young horse then demand a price, maybe.

Two of those older winners were very high class, and rated accordingly (146 and 158) while the younger horses - indeed all other winners bar Belfast Banter (129) since 2009 - were rated 134 to 141; and if you ignore subsequent Champion Hurdle winner State Man (extremely unlucky not to double up on Tuesday), that band narrows to 134-139. A feature of this race is that all winners since 2009 were patiently ridden, either in midfield or held up.

Of the Mullins gang this time, Daddy Long Legs is rated too high for a young horse, and Absurde has shown his hand too much, surely. But the other pair, Ethical Diamond and Kargese, are of clear interest. The former was five lengths behind the latter in last year's Spring Juvenile at DRF before completely failing to fire on heavy at Cheltenham next time. This season, after a promising effort on the flat at Royal Ascot, he ran down the field in a handicap at Christmas before bolting up in a very ordinary maiden hurdle. None of the 16 that followed him home there and ran since has won, from 19 collective attempts; and Ethical Diamond has been raised 12lb from his pre-race Irish mark (the Irish handicapper raised him only 6lb). He'll probably appreciate better ground but looks fairly harshly weighted all things considered, even if he is open to improvement.

Kargese is probably Willie's most obvious chance. She's never been out of the first two in nine career starts, four of them Grade 1's, two of them winning Grade 1's. Her form when within a length of Take No Chances has been well advertised by that one running third in the Mares' Hurdle, and it is possible the handicapper has underrated the ability of last year's juveniles. She has 141, the same mark as State Man won from and, while she is unlikely to be of his calibre, she may be a fair bit better than she's currently rated. She's versatile in terms of run style and will surely be waited with and, though it's a tough ask for a mare, Spirit Leader won back in 2003 from just a smallish number to have tried.

And what about Team Dan? Well it's only Valgrand for him, one shot wonder this year. This lad was impressive when racking up a hat-trick in early season, none more so than in a Grade 2 on good ground here. He was put in his place by Potters Charm when stepped up in trip, again around here, next time and has since got a five pound rebate from the handicapper for two non-descript efforts. He arrives here as a six-year-old novice on a perch of 134 and has been rested 77 days since, three of Skelton's four wins being rested 80, 97 and 124 days. Too easy? Maybe, maybe not.

With such a duopoly in the past decade, it's difficult to try to make a case for another though there are obviously plenty of respected operators in what is a smaller than usual field - just 16 declared. Principle among those shrewdies could be Joseph O'Brien who bids to win at back to back Festivals with Lark In The Morning, the 2024 Fred Winter champ. He's run acceptably twice since then, once for the UK handicapper, but still gets 2lb more weight than he had in that Haydock sighter. It's possible his best form is on softer turf than it's likely to be, but there's little doubt he'll have been optimally prepared.

County Hurdle Recent Winners

County Hurdle Pace Map

A smaller field this year and no obvious front runner. I doubt it'll be a tactical affair but it's difficult to call who'll make the pace.

County Hurdle Selection

I'm keeping this simple. I think Kargese is plenty short enough for all that I love her chance (and backed her ante post at bigger), so I'll suggest Valgrand to 'return to form'. Ethical Diamond is punitively handicapped but may still make the frame.

Suggestion: Back Valgrand at 8/1 or so.

Matt's Tix Pix: Mullins and Skelton on A

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2.40 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

This race has only been run for four years so there are no long term past trends to dig into. Instead, I have looked at the last ten years of mares only Class 1 chases between 2m3f and 2m6f. There have been 46 such races of which 35 have been won by either the favourite or the second favourite.  This suggests that this type of race tends not to have much strength in depth, and the four winners of this particular Festival race have all been 3/1 or shorter.

Another key trend to note in these races is that last time out (LTO) winners outperform those horses who didn’t win last time. LTO winners have won 25 races from 106 (23.6%) compared with 21 from 177 (11.9%) for those that didn’t win last time. There is a big differential between the placed results, too, with LTO winners placing 45% of the time, while LTO non-winners are down at 25%.

Horses that have previously won a Graded or Listed event hit a 24% strike rate compared with a 12% strike rate for those that have not.

Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have scored more than twice as often as those that were third or higher in the market. Not only that they have been better value with an A/E index of 0.96 compared to 0.81.

This year nine runners go to post with four rated over 150 and it will be a massive surprise if something rated lower wins this. Let’s look at the four main protagonists.

Willie Mullins has had two wins and two seconds in this race, and he runs two here which are first and second in the betting. Firstly, he has Dinoblue, runner up in the race last year. In that 2024 renewal jockey Mark Walsh may have been taken by surprise when the winner, Limerick Lace, kicked turning in and that could have cost her the race. Walsh will be keen not to allow any horse too much rope turning in this time around. A positive is that she ticks all the boxes from the trends shared above. A concern is that she generally races over 2 miles or 2 miles 1 furlong  and, despite going close last year, this trip might be right on her limit stamina wise. She is likely to go off a short-priced favourite.

The Mullins second string is Allegorie De Vassy. She was fourth in this last year, second in 2023 and those were her only two runs at the track. Despite those two decent efforts she tends to jump out to her right, and I think that has cost her in the past here. She does arrive at Cheltenham in good form having finished second at Naas last time getting to within a quarter of a length of Dinoblue. That was over a shorter two-mile trip.

Limerick Lace, from the Gavin Cromwell stable, comes here as defending champion, but she has been beaten a total of 101 lengths in her last two starts. If it rains, her chances improve considerably but with the likely going good to soft I am happy to take her on at her current price.

Cromwell also runs Brides Hill. She has been turned over when odds on favourite in her last two runs which tempers enthusiasm a little. However, according to the trainer this has always been her target, and she should prefer the ground more than her stablemate. Her price reflects her recent form, but at her best she would be bang there

Mares' Chase Recent Winners

*New race in 2021

Mares' Chase Pace Map

Willie again holds the cards with both of his pair likely to be prominent in what should be an even paced tempo.

Mares' Chase Selection

Dinoblue is the most likely winner but with her trading around Evens in a nine-runner field is tight. For me this looks a race to tackle each way with Brides Hill.

Suggestion: Back Brides Hill e/w at 6/1 or bigger

Matt's Tix Pix: Cromwell on A, Mullins on B

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3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

Ah, the Spuds Race. There's a knack to punting this race, which is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season. With only one winner returned a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013, we're going to be taking a swing. Naturally, such an approach can be feast or famine, so the faint-hearted might favour a different tack. Me? At this stage (Wednesday after racing), I'm in a massive hole on the week and don't plan to smash my way free, so it's the only course of action. OK, to the profile.

We're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. Stellar Story last year was an archetypal winner so let's look at his form profile going into that race and see if we can't reverse engineer it:

 

The form image shows most recent (Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham) at the top, oldest at the bottom. Starting at the bottom, we can see he was a good bumper horse - good enough to win two of his three in that sphere. We can also see he'd got plenty of experience, adding four hurdle starts prior to the Festival to that trio of NH Flat spins. Next, note how he won a big field maiden hurdle before running well in defeat in small field Graded races, including at Grade 1 level at the Dublin Racing Festival. Before any of those Rules runs, he'd won an Irish point to point.

Stellar Story was available at 33/1 when I backed him a couple of weeks before his Spuds win, and he was sent off at the same price on the day. He was the 11th choice of the betting public!

Here's a horse running in the race this year:

 

He, too, won an Irish point prior to his Rules debut; and he also won two bumpers, including the Cheltenham Bumper when held up in a field of 19. Sent hurdling this term, he won in a field of 25 - count 'em! - on first start before being outpaced in consecutive Grade 1's. The horse in question is Jasmin De Vaux, of course, and he's now a little shorter than ideal. I backed him at 33/1 (bully for me, I know) but I'm not going to tip him here at 8/1 for all that he fits the bill.

Another that I like is Wingmen, second when Jasmin was fourth last time, in the Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1 at DRF. He won a bumper, then a maiden hurdle - beating Turners fourth Forty Coats - before being outpaced over 2m1f here. In two starts since that December sighter, he's finished third in the Lawlor's Of Naas and second as mentioned. He handles quick ground and has a very good profile for this.

Front runners have a good recent record in the race, as do prominent types, so that's a further positive to his chance; and his trainer, Gordon Elliott, won the race with the aforementioned identikit winner, Stellar Story.

And there's one more from the Leopardstown G1 worthy of a mention, I think. Sounds Victorius was fourth in the Champion Bumper last year, never nearer than at the finish. Second in a small field novice on hurdling debut, he then won a 12-runner maiden, leading then getting headed before outstaying a horse that looked very likely to win. Stepped straight up to Grade 1 level, he was again outpaced before plugging on. I'm not sure he's good enough for this - maybe he wants four miles rather than three - but he sort of fits the profile.

Fishery Lane was a six length fifth in last year's Champion Bumper and has looked fairly slow in his hurdle races to date. He's a bit of a flier on the basis that he's not run in Graded company over timber but that good effort at the Festival last year gives me some hope he can be competitive. He handles quicker ground and is surely in need of this extra road to slow the others down.

John McConnell went close in this in 2021 with Streets Of Doyen, and Intense Approach has a similar feel to that one: campaigned through the previous summer, a winning Cheltenham sighter at the October meeting before a midwinter break and one run prior to the Festival. Both had bundles of good ground form and were very experienced.

Of the Brits, Wendigo's Challow second to The New Lion could not have been better advertised, that one winning the Turners on Wednesday. The Challow has seen eight runs from its field since, five of them ending in victory; Wendigo won before and since that effort and could go well though I'm not convinced about his battling qualities (I could definitely be wrong on that).

There are a few classier types in the field, not least Jet Blue, Ballyhassen Paddy and the mare The Big Westerner; but there always are, and they usually get beat by the more streetwise contenders. At least that's the way to bet.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Just loads and loads of pace here. It'll be attritional I expect and you want one that can handle that sort of cauldron.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection

Very tricky and taking two (or three) win only pokes in this big field feels like a good idea. Jasmin De Vaux and Wingmen don't really fit the long price bill though both have their chance; I couldn't put you off a win bet on either. But at daft prices and for small money, I'll risk the trio of Fishery Lane, Sounds Victorius and Intense Approach win only.

Suggestion: Avoid the short-priced classy horses and punt something at a price that might be better suited to this kind of bare knuckle cage fight. Each of 25/1 Fishery Lane, 25/1 Sounds Victorius and 16/1 Intense Approach has a bit of a squeak if things fall kindly.

Matt's Tix Pix: I'll be putting some big prices on A and hoping to get a result.

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4.00 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is almost impossible to oppose in the Gold Cup as he attempts to emulate Arkle and Best Mate in winning three Gold Cups in a row in the post-war era. Having won his third Irish Gold Cup last month, he has scared off stablemate Fact To File, the only horse who had looked a serious threat to his crown at Christmas when John Durkan form was reversed in the Savills Chase. Fact To File finished closer in the Irish Gold Cup but only because Townend plated rope-a-dope in front and turned the race into a sprint, impressing with how he quickened from the last to the line, while Fact To File was collared on the post for second by Grangeclare West.

Accidents can befall any horse, at home or on the racecourse, so there really is no such thing as a banker; but there is no strong reason to oppose the dual winner on what he’s shown this season, with his defeat at Punchestown in the John Durkan easy to forgive given he’s neither at his best over that trip or at that track, where his only defeats when completing over fences have come. Beaten by Fact To File there, he has shown the form to be misleading by slamming that talented rival twice at Leopardstown, brooking no argument as to which is the better horse.

With last year’s placed horses exiting stage left and Grey Dawning reportedly bypassing Cheltenham altogether, the Gold Cup looks the favourite’s to lose unless the ground dries back more than expected. In that scenario, Banbridge might be a danger to him having been confirmed for the race on the back of his King George win. I’ve liked Banbridge since watching him win the Martin Pipe in the company of Brendan Powell, who could not praise the horse highly enough, but while he proved his stamina for a sharp three miles of the King George, he still has the speed for two miles, and there are very few with that speed who can also stretch out the extra two and a half furlongs required up Cheltenham’s daunting hill.

I considered L’Homme Presse the horse most likely to follow Galopin des Champs home, but a minor setback has ruled him out. Corbett’s Cross showed at Ascot that he doesn’t jump well enough to win a race like this, and the supplemented Inothewayurthinkin is the better of the McManus hopes now that Fact To File has been rerouted.

In truth, Inothewayurthinkin is clearly not as good as Fact To File, having finished behind that rival in races won by Galopin des Champs on his last two starts. On the other hand, he’s also not capable of winning a Ryanair being a thorough stayer, and a Gold Cup weakened by withdrawals is a very realistic option for Gavin Cromwell’s 2024 Kim Muir winner. The Grand National is his main aim, but with questions over most of his rivals, he looks the one most likely to pick up the pieces in an attritional race.

Of course, a tactical affair will suit Banbridge better, but I suspect Paul Townend will be aware that Banbridge is the one who could spoil the party and will look to make this a test of stamina. That scenario is likely to see Banbridge look the main danger for much of the race, but Inothewayurthinkin will be staying on best after the last. While he’s unlikely to lay a glove on the favourite, he has every chance of out-slogging the classy Banbridge for second. At time of writing, seven of Gavin Cromwell’s 11 runners on the first two days have been placed or would have been placed but for a late fall, and his team is in better form than most at this meeting.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners

Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

There's a very good chance that Galopin Des Champs and Paul Townend keep it simple by bidding to make all. A few of his rivals need to try to get him out of his comfort zone so that's something to keep in mind, but the champ doesn't need to lead.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection

Suggestion: Try a Galopin des Champs/Inothewayurthinkin Exacta

Matt's Tix Pix: Galopin banker

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4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by Paul Jones.

The news in the last few days surrounds Willitgoahead who has been bought and sent to Gordon Elliott who would have had no time to do anything with him so don’t let that have any effect on how you judge his chance. He is now more or less joint-fav with Angels Dawn having impressed with his jumping when winning at Thurles after racing in last early. I wouldn’t fancy those tactics being pulled off on the New Course so maybe he’ll sit handier early.

On the figures ANGELS DAWN is the one to beat as she receives a 7lb mares’ allowance here unlike when she won the Kim Muir two years ago (and would have been placed last year behind a Gold Cup hope but for a late fall). She also didn’t have that allowance when winning a point to point at Dromahane, beating Ryehill by 6l who has since run all over Itsontheline at Naas, and they are the other pair in the top four in the betting. Ryehill won that race despite a bad mistake three out and his jumping could let him down in this sterner test.

Angels Dawn is ten now, and up until last year the previous nine winners were aged ten or eleven. Sam Curling’s mare also finished a close-up third in last season’s Thyestes so competitive, big-field chases bring the very best out of her and I’m hoping that, after Sine Nomine last year, mares can bag back-to-back wins.

Runner-up for the last two seasons, Its On The Line is hard work but usually keeps pulling it out which is what made his Naas run, where he found little in the home straight, all the more disappointing. I think he needs to run himself into form/fitness as his very best efforts have been after Cheltenham but he is only reaching his prime now as he was just aged six and seven when runner-up for the last two runnings. Maybe Emmet Mullins had left more to work on at Naas than he is giving away (he had a hard race in that prep last year which may have taken an edge off him for Cheltenham?) but it was disconcerting to hear rumours that JP McManus, owner of Its On The Line, was trying to buy Willitgoahead: that may suggest a lack of confidence if the whispers are accurate.

Behind the Irish-trained top four in the market come four home hopes and the Brits have won three of the last four renewals. I can’t see Allmankind staying, and Music Drive has yet to run in a hunter chase (just one of those has won since 1993), so the other pair interest me more. Paul Nicholls has trained four Festival Hunter Chase winners so Shearer is respected, though I wonder if the Aintree Foxhunters’ might suit him better as he typically races over shorter trips and easier tracks.

So Fairly Famous appeals most of the home team. He beat the 2023 winner of this race, Premier Magic, by 4½l on Cheltenham’s Hunter Chase night back in early May (also won the same race by 15l the previous season) and has since won both his point to points this winter and clearly goes very well for Gina Andrews.

Rocky’s Howya was third two years ago but missed last season, which I know full well as was looking out for him as my horse for the 2024 version. He would have been closer but for meeting interference on the run-in behind Premier Magic and Its On The Line in 2023, so he also interests me now that he is back and won a point last time out.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map

The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection

Suggestion: Back 4/1 Angels Dawn to win, and/or consider 20/1 Fairly Famous and 18/1 Rocky's Howya each way.

Matt's Tix Pix: Angels Dawn and a few others on A, some bigger prices on B

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5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by David Massey.

A race that seemingly revolves around one horse this year, Kopek De Mee. 

What we know about him; this will be his first start on British soil for Willie Mullins, having raced five times over hurdles in France for his previous yard and, as such, the handicapper hasn’t had a lot to go on, giving him his French mark of 136 (which he has to do, by the way). 

It isn’t as if his French form means he’s thrown in here, though. Timeform, who can on occasions rave about these marks given to Willie’s from France, have him only fifth best, admittedly with a “p”, so progress is likely. Neither have we seen him for 310 days, and all his form so far has been on deep ground. We’ve seen good things beaten in this before; at 5-2 you can leave me out, thanks very much. 

There’s one in here I’ve been keen on since his Warwick run at the start of February and those of you that have been lucky/unlucky enough to watch or listen to the podcasts I’ve been doing for a rival publication (sorry Matt) will know that No Ordinary Joe is the horse that caught my, and others', eyes that day.

No Ordinary Joe was seventh in the Martin Pipe last year when Nicky was having his week from hell, and this time around he’s been spared a hard campaign, racing just the three times this season but it was a much better effort at Warwick last time, despite not looking entirely fit.

He was close enough two out to throw down a challenge but Callum Pritchard looked after him a bit after the last, and despite only being beaten two lengths, and he looked like there was a bit left in the tank. 

The handicapper left him alone for that, meaning a mark of 138 will be 2lb lower than last year, and although Pritchard has been claimed by Ben Pauling to ride No Questions Asked, Freddie Gingell, among the winners elsewhere this week, is a most able deputy. 

Wodhooh is an in-form mare that’s unbeaten in six hurdles starts, and her defeat of Joyeuse and Take No Chances last time out is solid form, but the market has her well found. In some ways, I’d not be shocked if she went off favourite, given her form looks more solid than Kopek De Mee’s, but at the time of writing Gordon Elliott is not having the best of Festival weeks, with too many of his fading out of contention for comfort. That may change on Thursday or earlier on Friday but she only makes limited appeal.

At 33-1 I’ll also have a little bit on Electric Mason as the back-up selection. A good looker, he’s twice come up against The New Lion, beaten 4½ lengths on the first occasion and then nine lengths by him in the Challow. Needless to say, that form looks all the better after The New Lion’s win in the Turners earlier in the week, and a mark of 132 seems more than fair. The ground should suit and quotes of 25-1 and bigger are worth a fiver of your cash. 

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map

Another big field and some relatively inexperienced riders, so this ought to be quickly run from the start. It's been won by some really classy future chasers in the pase - see the list above - and it will be fascinating to see which Grade 1 horse(s) reveal themselves here.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: Back No Ordinary Joe at 12/1 and/or Electric Mason at 33/1.

 

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And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2025. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.

Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham, Matt Tombs and Paul Jones are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.

Be lucky.

Matt

 

Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day 3 Preview, Tips

Day Three, Thursday, and it's a case of New Courses for Old as we 'change ends' for the second half. Fresh ground, then, probably nicely watered so no excuses - apart from the obvious (picking the wrong horse).

1.20 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

Full disclosure: this race is not my favourite. It's not because I haven't had a degree of success in finding the winner during its short history (new race in 2016) nor that I don't see its place at the Festival. On the contrary, I've backed a couple of good winners, and fully recognise the importance of such races for the mares' programme - something that is far more relevant to the breeding industry than the glut of Graded races for geldings which blighted the winter until this season. Hats off to the BHA for sorting that. That was an unexpected ranty sidebar to kick things off...

No, the reason I've not yet warmed to the Dawn Run is that it's been a bit second division more often than not. Perhaps this will be the year that ignites my attraction to it - finding the winner will help no end in that regard, so let's crack on.

You'll note a couple of things from the list of winners below. Firstly, Willie won the first five renewals of the race; and secondly, neither he nor any other Irish trainer has won in the past three renewals. It's a small sample size but offes hope to the domestics.

Sixandahalf has been almost a default ante post favourite, her one hurdles spin resulting in a twelve length beating of the expensive point recruit Qualimita. The problem with that is Qualimita appears not to be very good: she's been beaten twice since most recently at odds on. Still, Sixandahalf was also a very good bumper winner and switched codes to run third in the ultra-valuable Irish Cesarewitch (worth £223,000 and change more to the winner than the Dawn Run - sheesh).

She's inexperienced over hurdles, with just that one run, and might want a little further than this marginally extended two miles.

Maughreen is another one of dem Willie talking horses. She too has had just one try over hurdles, and she's less experienced generally than Sixandahalf, having only raced once prior - winning a bumper easily. So she's two from two and unextended each time. While a couple of winners have emerged from that hurdle score, one of them was subsequently beaten 20 lengths in a handicap hurdle off a lowly 102; she was 15 lengths behind Maughreen so make of it what you will.

Aurora Vega, thought to be on the sick list, is declared. There have been a few on the preview circuit keen to know her form but she's won six of her nine starts and all three of her completed hurdles starts, including when making all in a Grade 3 Mares' Hurdle last time. She's likely to be close to the pace which, in a big field, might not be optimal but her experience and ability to 'get it done' are assets that many of her rivals cannot match.

Galileo Dame, a four-year-old, has been declared here rather than in the Triumph and that looks a smart call. Although she faces elder rivals there's nothing of the proven ability of East India Dock and perhaps nothing of the rumoured ability of Lulamba in this field. Moreover, she receives a chunky 10lb weight allowance from the older mares. Trained by Joseph O'Brien, no stranger to Festival success, she has more experience than most of her rivals having finished second in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at the DRF as well as in her debut hurdle race; additionally, she ran eight times on the flat.

As a flat filly, she won a Leopardstown maiden (10f, heavy) before a tilt at the Irish Oaks where she was unplaced. Sights lowered to Listed class, she bagged silver in her final two goes on the level, eventually rated high-90's. If there's a niggle it might be that she tends to find one too good but she looks to be a serious player in this.

What is certain is that other mares have better form in the book for all that this pair can improve, perhaps significantly, from their current demonstrated levels. Recent winners have had more experience, and that is an asset for Karoline Banbou, a multiple podium finisher in French Graded AQPS races before getting off the mark over timber at the deuxieme time of asking in Ireland. That form is again open to question but she's shown up well in big fields and is a litte more streetwise than those at the top of the market.

Best of the home team in their quest for an unbroken four-timer in the Dawn Run is Jubilee Alpha, trained by Paul Nicholls - remember him? This six-year-old mare was second in the G2 Nickel Coin Mares' Bumper at Aintree, a race always loaded with talent, last spring. She's advertised that form herself in winning a Listed race at Taunton and a valuable Class 2 conditions event at Windsor. Taunton was the launchpad for Golden Ace's success in this race last year and we all know how much Nicholls would love winning this. He's got a bit of a chance with this mare.

Kevin Keegan Beat Them GIFfrom Kevin Keegan GIFs

Ben Pauling has an interesting one in Diva Luna. She was the mare to beat Jubilee Alpha in the Nickel Coin, and has since run 212 over hurdles. While I'm confident she'll step forward for her defeat at Sandown last time (at odds of 2/9 - ouch), the fact that the 2's were at two miles while the win was over two and a half, allied to her penchant for pacemaking, leaves her vulnerable to a finisher at this trip. There is a fair bit of rival front end speed, on paper at least, so that's another niggle regarding her case. I suspect she'll be a different proposition entirely when stepped back up in trip.

Nicholls has a second card to play in the shape of Just A Rose, an expensive recruit after winning a maiden point, but one who kept the dream alive for owners including the Brooks' (remember Saint Calvados and co?) when bolting up by 26 lengths in a Taunton maiden in mid-January. That's obviously a far cry from this test, but if you're considering backing Maughreen or Sixandahalf, the former especially, you'd get a squarer price on Just A Rose off a mirror image of a form case.

We all know to respect anything Henry de Bromhead saddles at the Cheltenham Festival and, as such, Air Of Entitlement is worthy of at least a second glance. True, she's only won a run of the mill bumper and an equally unremarkable maiden hurdle, well enough beaten in a Punchestown Festival bumper in between, so it's a leap of faith based on connections required. I can't immediately see it and will reluctantly allow her to beat me.

If this was two and a half miles, I'd be quite interested in the chance of Hollygrove Cha Cha, a winning machine for Hot To Trot Jumping. But it's not. At two miles, she's vulnerable as she showed with her only career defeat in six races behind Jubilee Alpha. Before and since then she's run thrice over hurdles at around two and a half miles and won each time, including in the Grade 2 Jane Seymour at Sandown last time. She's a lovely mare and one to follow, but this will probably be too sharp for her unless they go very hard early (which, in such a big field, they might).

Plenty of other unexposed ones, including Willie's Venusienne. She's too inexperienced to interest me, however.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

With so many runners, this is bound to be run at a right good lick.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection

An open race - far more so than the ante post betting suggested - and one where I want to take on Maughreen and Sixandahalf. Both have their chance but so do many others. At the prices, then, I'm keen on Galileo Dame with her experience and hefty weight pull; and will try a small each way on Jubilee Alpha to see Paul Nicholls do a Keegan.

Suggestion: Back 5/1 Galileo Dame to win and/or 9/1 Jubilee Alpha each way.

Matt's Tix Pix: I'm taking a fair few here across A and B - could be the placepot dividend maker

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2.00 Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase (Handicap, 2m 4f)

Previewed by Matt Tombs.

This race is back after a four year hiatus and returns as the 2005-10 version, run on the New Course as a 20lb limited handicap with no ratings ceiling.

In practice, the ratings ceiling (140 between 2011 and 2017, 145 between 2018 and 2020) didn’t make that much difference. In the six renewals with no ratings ceiling no horse ran off higher than 148.  The last ten renewals had a weight spread of between 4lb and 10lb so whether it is nominally a limited or full handicap has had little impact. It looks like being a different renewal this year with Springwell Bay running off 154 and a bigger weight spread below him.

This has also been a race where smaller yards have fared well. Willie Mullins has never won any handicap chase at the Festival, and neither Gordon Elliott nor Dan Skelton has won this race. Nicky Henderson, Henry de Bromhead and Paul Nicholls have won it once each. Six of the 16 winners were giving their trainers a first Festival winner so don’t be put off if a horse you fancy comes from a smaller yard.

A bit like the Plate, this has been a race for intermediate trip specialists: 12 of the 16 winners, including nine of the last ten, had shown their best chase form (judged by Racing Post Ratings) at intermediate trips.

Perhaps the most important trend is how predictable a race it has been. Lots of punters saw a 20-runner handicap chase for novices (as mentioned, the maximum field has been increased to 22) and thought it would be a bit of a lottery. In fact it’s been the most predictable handicap of the meeting over conventional obstacles. 13 of the 16 winners have come from the first five in the SP market, ten of which came from the first three in the betting. Don’t be put off taking a single figure price despite the big field.

A bit like the Fred Winter this has a trial that has proved a really strong guide – the 2m4½f novice handicap chase on Trials Day at Cheltenham in late-January. Four of the last eight winners contested it finishing 7312. It seemed a strong renewal of that novice handicap this year, with Whistle Stop Tour looking a leading contender for the Ultima and Resplendent Grey having decent claims in the National Hunt Chase. Moon D'Orange won on Trials Day despite a howler at the last and, despite a 6lb rise, he looks a player here.

Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Pace Map

Another big field, and likely plenty of pace on once more.

Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Selection

Suggestion: Try Moon D'Orange at 14/1.

Matt's Tix Pix: Two or three A's and hope to be lucky

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2.40 Pertemps Final (Grade 3 handicap, 3m)

Previewed by Paul Jones.

A quick plug before I start this race as in Gary Wiltshire’s new book Fifty Years In The Betting Jungle that I co-wrote and published by Weatherbys, one of his many tales relates to the Pertemps from way back in 1983 when it was then the Coral Golden Hurdle, and won by Forgive ‘n Forget hosed up with Barney Curley’s fingerprints all over it. Plug over. [Book available here - Ed.]

After the Leopardstown qualifier that featured six of the last nine winners was run, I went for lightning to strike twice in backing FEET OF A DANCER at 16/1 each-way (four places at the time). She finished third there as did another Paul Nolan-trained mare in Mrs Milner which won the Final having also placed in the same qualifier. They ran almost identical races in that they travelled strongly and took it up only to be run out of it on the run-in. My concern is the drying ground as she likes cut but the New Course will have been watered for Day 1 of the two days they race on it if necessary.

Henderson and McManus have turned to first-time cheekpieces for the favourite, Jeriko Du Reponet, who was a running-on third in his qualifier. I don’t know, I just think there’s ‘something of the night’ about him and his stamina has to be taken on trust.

Even though he has won a qualifier, which is usually a no-no for the Final given that only two of the last 29 winners have done so, I prefer the Leopardstown winner Win Some Lose Some of the McManus pair. JP has won the Final four times before and Padraig Roche’s charge looks firmly on the up.

That 'winners of qualifiers' negative stat should come under pressure as (a) more of them should turn up as the Pertemps is now a ‘win-and-you’re in’ race and (b) since two years ago only the first four can qualify from a qualifying race (reduced from six and having previously been eight) so no more fifth-and-sixth-placed finishers squeaking in. Actually, they didn’t have a good record in the Final anyway as it was horses that finished second, third and fourth in qualifiers that had been winning the vast majority of finals.

Until winners of qualifiers start winning the Final though, I will continue to look elsewhere so won’t be siding with Will The Wise (won the last qualifier at Naas in such gruelling ground they couldn’t finish the card so can he recover in time?), Catch Him Derry (wants it soft according to Dan Skelton) or Henri The Second (same reason). Other winners of qualifiers are Harbour Lake, Super Survivor, One Big Bang and J’Ai Froid.

Gordon Elliott has a fabulous record in the Final but both of his qualifiers, Patter Merchant and Lucky Lyreen, also ran in those atrocious conditions at Naas just 18 days ago.

Karl Des Tourelles was second in the Punchestown qualifier in November but only two five-year-olds have won since the race was first run in 1974.

D ART D ART’s second in the Carlisle qualifier catches the eye as he went from held up to leading at the last and may well have won but for edging left on the run-in; back in third was Gwennie May Boy who has franked the form since when comfortably winning the Rendlesham. I like a hold-up horse for the Pertemps and prior to that he came from the rear again to finish an eye-catching third of 23 at Navan over 2m6f having previously won over 2m4f so the gradual steps up in trip are also proving beneficial to him.

Trained by Tommy Cooper, no stranger to Festival success having won the Champion Bumper with Total Enjoyment, looking at the race fresh I’ll take an each-way chance at the general 11/1 to six places that D Art D Art can be his second Cheltenham winner some 21 years later.

Onto the Brits and the Hendo pair of Doddiethegreat and Shanagh Bob have claims. I sensed at the media day I attended at Seven Barrows that he was quite sweet on Doddiethegreat running well having outrun big odds to qualify recently at Haydock; first-time cheekpieces are applied. They thought they had already qualified Shanagh Bob until a rule change was tweaked so had to get him out once more than they wanted to.

Pertemps Final Recent Winners

Pertemps Final Pace Map

There's no shortage of runners on this card, but not a huge amount of signed on trailblazers here. Could be run at only an even gallop.

Pertemps Final Selection

Suggestion: Try D Art D Art each way at around 11/1 with all the extra places.

Matt's Tix Pix: Many, many A picks

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3.20 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

A race much maligned but one I personally love, and which has a habit of throwing up tremendous finishes. Who can forget Bryony's brilliantly bonkers post-race debrief after the wonderful Frodon took her all the way from the front in 2019?

This year's field has a ton of class - well, maybe back class - and most of them are in the right race for all that pundits aplenty will bleat that they should have gone short (Champion Chase) or long (Gold Cup). The fact is there's a vast tract of land between two miles and more than three and a quarter, and this is an eminently sensible test for intermediate stayers. That's my counter argument at least.

The favourite this year, and short, is Fact To File. A three time Grade 1 winner, twice as a novice and then first time up this season in the 2m4f John Durkan, he was widely expected to serve it up to Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup. But having been beaten by that one twice on quicker ground over three miles since, he's swerving a third beating in the Blue Riband in favour of theoretically easier pickings. He's not far off even money for this and at such a skinny quote one has to find a reason to oppose. Without looking too hard, I've unearthed two.

First, all his winning form is on soft ground and he was beaten the last twice on good to yielding and yielding; and second, isn't this trip a bit on the short side if it's not deep ground? In truth, I don't know, and it will shock literally nobody if he wins, even wins well. But those questions are enough to look for a bit of potential value elsewhere.

French raider Il Est Francais heads here from his choice of the three Championship chases, and I feel that's probably right after he was gunned down late by Banbridge in the King George at Christmas. Most of his French form is very smart, as are his two Kempton spins (he blitzed his field in the Kauto Star 15 months ago), but he too is a short price and has thrown a couple of outright clunkers in his last four races. Candidly, he has the profile of a 'bleeder': one who, under the pressure of a race can burst a blood vessel.

Il Est Francais is likely to try to make all, tactics adopted successfully by not just the aforementioned Frodon but also Allaho twice and, a little further back, Uxizandre and Cue Card. But he should expect contention for the lead, from one or more of Heart Wood, Jungle Boogie and Hang In There. If he does get an 'easy', he's a danger no doubt.

Last year's winner, Protektorat, returns to defend his crown and he comes here off a pretty good season so far including a win in a valuable conditions race at Windsor's Winter Millions fixture in late January. My feeling is that he might just prefer a softer surface; but if he handles the expected quicker turf he's an obvious player again albeit that no horse older than nine has won this since Albertas Run doubled up in 2011.

The 2023 winner, Envoi Allen, also tries again. He was second to Protektorat last year as a ten-year-old and, well into the veteran stage now, looks an unlikely - if hugely popular - winner to my eye.

Jungle Boogie is also 11, as is Hang In There. Neither has achieved as much as age mate Envoi Allen, though JB has been lightly raced, and as such they cannot be seriously fancied.

At the other end of the age spectrum, Djelo may have more to offer than his already progressive profile. Last seen winning the G2 Denman Chase over 2m7f, the worry is that, like Fact To File, he maybe needs further and/or softer. Unlike FTF, Djelo is an each way price. His form ties in with Protektorat, but he's two and a half times that one's price as well.

Master Chewy is a two miler stepping up in trip. A good winner of the Game Spirit (G2) at Newbury last time, he might have been better off going to the Queen Mother, his two races at this distance yielding a brace of eighth placed finishes, granted over hurdles.

Another young buck, Heart Wood, rounds out the nine horse field. A Listed Hurdle winner in France before transferring to Henry de Bromhead, he went straight over fences in Ireland winning at the fourth time of asking in a valuable Leopardstown handicap before a good third in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree. This season, he bashed Corbetts Cross first time out (form not to take literally), was a neck second to the decent Croke Park in the Drinmore Novices' Chase before losing his novice status and running a creditable fourth to Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas. Henry can be expected to have improved him in the interim and I like his quietly ascendant profile, form on all surfaces, and proven ability at this distance. He's got a little bit to find on ratings but, as the joint youngest in the field, he's more entitled than most to do so.

Ryanair Chase Recent Winners

Ryanair Chase Pace Map

The French raider is very likely to take them along and he probably doesn't want too much rope. Unless you've backed him, of course.

Ryanair Chase Selection

A race in which Fact To File makes the price for anything else you might like. Of course, he might just go and win but the race doesn't look a perfect profile fit for his skillset and so an each way alternative is sought. Il Est Francais is not an each way price and is a bit of a binary sort these days in any case. The two I like in that win and place context are Djelo and Heart Wood. The former has a better level of proven ability but might want a bit further/softer, the latter has race conditions in his favour but needs to improve - I think he maybe can.

Suggestion: Back one or both of 16/1 Heart Wood and/or 12/1 Djelo, each way a pleasure.

Matt's Tix Pix: A couple on A including Fact To File, and some B's including unnamed favourite. I want to get FTF beat but not sure I can get him off the ticket!

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4.00 Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

Teahupoo is the market leader again for the Stayers’ having won last year and, as then, he arrives after just one prep run in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December. He was beaten by Lossiemouth this time although Gordon Elliott was more than happy with that run and has set him aside since. He looks at his best when the mud is flying, with form figures on soft or heavy reading 111111111 as opposed to 21963412 on good or good to soft ground. Freshness is also clearly important, with his record off a break of 50+ days reading 111111112, and off shorter breaks 119634.

This year, the freshness box is ticked but Teahupoo will need more rain to get his desired ground, seemingly unlikely as I pen these words. It is also intriguing that Elliott does not rely on Teahupoo alone, but also has the switched Pertemps fancy The Wallpark in this race. That gelding ran well in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot but needs to improve again to win at the top level.

Home By The Lee is the main danger on form, having beaten Bob Olinger in both the Lismullen Hurdle and the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, and he’s reported to be a different horse this season by connections. He would indeed need to do something different to win this race at the fourth attempt having been no closer than third previously. That is possible, but to be honest, I don’t think his form this season is any better than it was 12 months ago for all he may be transformed on the home gallops.

Bob Olinger is held on this season’s form and looks a weak finisher at this trip, but it should be pointed out that he has a great Cheltenham record, winning the Baring Bingham and the Turners (Golden Miller) in March before landing last year’s Relkeel. That record flatters him a touch as he would have been beaten readily by Galopin des Champs on the second occasion but for that horse tumbling at the last fence. The anticipated ground will help Bob Olinger in terms of seeing the race out, but he tends to look awkward under pressure these days and isn’t convincing enough to draw me in.

Third to Home By The Lee at Leopardstown was the relative novice Rocky’s Pride, who improved on that when winning the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran next time. Declan Queally’s charge would be a big Stayers' stat buster as he bids to become the first five-year-old to win this contest in the modern era (*dons anorak* The Spa Hurdle, which was the equivalent contest at the post-war Cheltenham, was won by five-year-old Whim in 1951, but the race that year took place in late April, and the weights ranged from 11-12 to 10-4, suggesting that comparisons are pointless).

If there is a genuine staying star of the future in the field, it’s him, and the youngster won the Galmoy while still looking a work in progress. Realistically, he probably needs another year to reach maturity as a stayer, but I think there is a huge amount of talent there and I don’t want to pass him over without mention.

LUCKY PLACE isn’t a certain stayer, but last year’s Coral Cup fourth has improved again this term, winning the Ascot Hurdle and the Relkeel, and while it’s probably a little ingenuous to point out that he had the current Champion Hurdle winner behind on both those occasions, it does bear mentioning that he was giving weight to subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Gowel Road on the latter occasion. He needed every yard in the Relkeel and looks to my eye like he will stay three miles - on good ground at least - and he’s the percentage call, with a win bet making more appeal than backing him each-way given that slight query about the trip

Stayers' Hurdle Recent Winners

Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map

Gowel Road is the probable pace maker and he does love it at Cheltenham. Not many others tend to go forward but perhaps Home By The Less will be thereabouts.

Stayers' Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: Back Lucky Place win only at 7/1

Matt's Tix Pix: Fav on A, some others on B

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4.40 Festival Plate (Class 1 handicap, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

It should be noted that it was a Class 1 Grade 3 contest from 2004 to 2022 but since 2023 it has become just a Class 1 race.

This is not the strongest trends race of the week but here are the main stats based on the past 25 years. In terms of the betting market, winners have been well spread across different prices. Four of the last six have been 9/1 or less, but overall, only seven out of the 25 winners were single figure prices. Nine winners were 20/1 or bigger with a further 25 placed so you cannot rule out many runners based on price.

In terms of weight carried there were no wins for the two highest weighted runners but overall there has been an even distribution of winners and placed runners across the weights. Likewise, when looking at the age of the horses there is no clear pattern. Horses aged 9 or older have been competitive and arguably have offered better long-term value than their younger counterparts. Having said that, beware of horses that have raced a lot over fences: those with 17 or more career starts over fences prior to their Plate spin have won just once from 116 runners.

Venetia Williams has had three winners and six placed from 31 but no win since 2013 (she did saddle the second in 2016 at 33/1). She runs Gemirande and an interesting outsider in Demnat this year. Irish runners have won five of the last nine renewals and are definitely targeting this race more than in the early 2000s.

Last time out winners have done well, claiming ten of the 25 renewals in my trends sample from 99 runners with 28% placing. 22 of the last 25 finished in the first seven last time out. Horses that won at least once in their last three starts have been three times more likely to win and twice as likely to place as horses who have drawn a blank in those three runs.

The first two horses to discuss are two that don’t stand out from a trends perspective. Ginnys Destiny did very little wrong last season including three wins and a second at Cheltenham. This season he has disappointed three times when prominent in the betting on all three occasions. What those runs have done is lower his handicap mark to 149, 6lb below where it was at the start of the season. Paul Nicholls has been talking him up and if he's anywhere near his best he comes into the equation.

The Companysergeant is interesting for two reasons. Firstly, he has recently moved to the Gavin Cromwell yard and in his only race for them finished a close up third over hurdles. After three decent runs in the summer of 2024 his form that autumn was poor, which may have prompted the stable switch. Secondly, I keep beeing drawn back to his six-length fourth to Spillane’s Tower in the Grade 1 WillowWarm Gold Cup at the end of March last year. If he can match that form he has a very solid chance.

Jagwar is the clear favourite at the time of writing. He has come here rather than the Jack Richards Novices’ handicap earlier on the card so connections clearly think he can beat more seasoned rivals. He was a winner at Cheltenham last time in what looked a hot handicap so that is a positive trends wise. Although he has gone up 7lb he's clearly still improving. It's only his price that tempers enthusiasm.

An Peann Dearg comes here on a hat-trick and was very impressive last time at Leopardstown. However, he's gone up 12lb for that effort. Like Jagwar he had an entry in the Jack Richards but takes his chance here. Despite the rise in the weights he could still be thereabouts.

Personal Ambition would have won two starts back at Ascot in a Grade 2 chase but for a terrible mistake at the last. As a hurdler, he claimed some big scalps last year including Jango Baie. If you can forgive his latest run he looks a decent price and trainer Ben Pauling, who won the race last year, definitely knows how to train a handicap chaser. Since 2022 Pauling has a strike rate in handicap chases of close to 22% returning 19p in the £ to SP (33p to BSP). Personal Ambition also should be close to the pace which I think is important here based on the overall stats for this course and distance as well as the recent history of this race.

Festival Plate Recent Winners

Festival Plate Pace Map

Yet another big field and another with no out and out speed merchants. Any of Ginny's, Gemirande, Seddon and Personal Ambition might play 'catch me'.

Festival Plate Selection

I backed the The Companysergeant ante post at much bigger odds and the price is a little too tight now for me. I am going for two against the field at bigger odds from either side of the pond.

Suggestion: Back Personal Ambition each way at 20/1 and An Peann Dearg each way at 16/1 (5 places)

Matt's Tix Pix: Several on A, several more on B

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5.20 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)

Previewed by David Massey.

I do love the Kim Muir. The purists will scoff, but you could put seven Kim Muir’s on on the Thursday and I’d be happy as a sandboy. Honest. 

And this year I’m fairly confident I’ve got the winner from a choice of two. (Famous last words.) 

The Irish, as ever, have a strong hand in this, and Midnight Our Fred has to be on any shortlist you care to draw up for this. 

He was entered up in the marathon on Day One, but once confirmations meant it looked very much like he’d get a run in this, there was only ever one way he’d go. 

He isn’t a clever selection by any means, but look how many boxes he ticks. Firstly, Cheltenham form: three runs at the track resulting in three second places, including to Mole Court in an amatuers event back here in 2023, narrowly failing to peg back the (then) improving winner on the run-in to the tune of half a length. Off the back of that he ran another solid race at the December meeting and came back again at the April two-dayer to run second to Hymac over 3m4f, the pair nicely clear of anything else. Those three efforts ranged on ground from good to soft, so whatever the elements may throw at him before Thursday, he should handle with ease. 

And the good form doesn’t stop there, either; this season, an easy 14-length win at Gowran Park on his seasonal debut was followed up by an excellent second in the big-field Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. See what I mean about him ticking every box? Cheltenham form, big-field form, stays well, goes well for an amateur? What’s not to like, good readers of Geegeez? 

I’ll back him up with another of the Irish contingent in Mint Boy, who has definitely been laid out for this after just the four chase starts. Useful over hurdles, he made a solid start to his chasing career when third to Search For Glory and Sa Majeste at Gowran Park, and two quick runs in December (over shorter trips) looked nothing more than a means to an end in getting him a mark. A better effort at Punchestown last month when third to High Class Hero should have teed him up nicely for this, and he remains totally unexposed over fences. This stamina test seems sure to suit, and I can see him taking a big step forward form-wise now. 

Finding something among the British contingent that might be able to throw down a challenge isn’t easy. I have a soft spot for Dom Of Mary and put him up for this last year; a couple of mistakes on the way around hardly helped his cause, but he could get no nearer than eighth, and unless there’s an absolute deluge on Wednesday it might well be more of the same. 

I suppose the capable but utterly inconsistent Weveallbeencaught is of some interest in new headgear. He looked a happier horse when returned to Nigel Twiston-Davies at Doncaster in January, winning an easy nine lengths, but couldn’t repeat that effort when fifth in the Grimthorpe last time out. On goes some stronger headgear, with the visor replacing cheekpieces, and a tongue tie is also employed, as it was in the Ultima last year (when sixth). Toby McCain-Mitchell is one of the better British riders, in my opinion, and if he’s on a going day, he could give his pilot a decent spin.  

Kim Muir Recent Winners

Kim Muir Pace Map

Midnight Our Fred is most likely to set the tempo, though there is a clutch who could challenge early. Should be run at a decent gallop.

 

Kim Muir Selection

Suggestion: Split stakes between 9/1 Midnight Our Fred and 12/1 Mint Boy.

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And that's us three-quarters of the way home. Hopefully you've had a couple of good draws already; if not, fear not for Gold Cup day will follow. But let's enjoy Thursday's sport first!

Good luck

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

Day Two. Wednesday. The second half of the first half - or the second quarter if you prefer - and a day when, seemingly, it has rained since time immemorial. After a full soaking in the past two years, it's looking dry if a little cool for Day 2 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. There's much to go at so let's crack on - slightly earlier start, don't forget. Over to our team of shrewdies (and me) for their thoughts. Vamanos!

1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

The Turners - or to save confusion the Baring Bingham - Novices’ Hurdle kicks off Tuesday’s card and looks a fairly straightforward race to analyse from a race shape perspective. I’d imagine one of the Mullins pair Kaid d’Authie and Kappa Jye Pyke will go forward, if not both, and that should ensure that regular front-runner Sixmilebridge doesn’t get an easy lead. Sixmilebridge might be a player if he can get loose in front, having employed those tactics to beat a slightly below-par Potters Charm in the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle here on Trials Day.

That wasn’t strictly over course and distance as it took place on the New Course and, while the winner did it well, it’s hard to take a high view of the form unless assuming Potters Charm ran right up to his best, which I don’t think he did, albeit not falling that far short of his previous standard. Given that was Trials Day, it’s interesting to see how winners of that race have got on in the Baring Bingham over the years. Much has been made of the poor record of Challow winners in the race, but you need to go back to Monsignor to find the last horse to win the Classic and the Baring Bingham in the same season. That’s disappointing given the similarity in track and trip, and the horses who have gone on to success at Cheltenham after winning in January were the stayers Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross, underlining how the New Course tests stamina above tactical speed.

Potters Charm is better judged on his track and trip win in November and his Grade 1 win in the Formby at Aintree in December. Those victories catapulted him to the head of the market for this race, but they do not look as good now as they did at the time, and his defeat of Miami Magic at Aintree compares poorly with Tripoli Flyer’s win over the same horse at Kempton last time. Tripoli Flyer might be a little underrated with neither Musselburgh nor Kempton striking as the ideal track for a horse with plenty of late boot, but the concern with him is that he was reported to have broken a blood vessel despite winning the Dovecote, and that is a no-no here.

The New Lion is the best of the British and just shades favouritism after winning the Challow at Newbury in December. He was visually impressive, enough for J P McManus to open his chequebook, but the form of the Challow is pretty hollow. The runner-up Wendigo is a progressive stayer, but the Newbury race tested speed over stamina for a change, and Wendigo was outpaced before running on late for second. The horses that The New Lion actually bested at Newbury looked promising at the time, but neither Regents Stroll nor Bill Joyce have fulfilled early promise over hurdles and, on paper, the form is not at all strong for a Grade 1 hurdle. I get the impression that The New Lion might have had plenty more in hand, but it’s hard to put a figure on that, and my feeling is that he’s been overrated by the handicappers, public and private.

Dan Skelton knows more about this gelding’s latent ability and seems full of confidence, which makes me wary of taking him on, but his price assumes he is every bit as good as he looked at Newbury and then some, and I couldn’t make him anywhere near as short as the market does.

Final Demand was all the rage after beating Wingmen easily over 2¾m at the DRF but there was talk of him switching to the Albert Bartlett, and he drifted as a result. That came to nothing, and he should have regained favouritism when declared for this, but the doubts seem to have persisted. This race has gone to Champion Hurdle prospects in the past (Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Faugheen) and if there is a Champion Hurdler in this field then it isn't Final Demand, who looks as if he would gallop all day. I suspect this is why he’s deemed opposable, as he might be vulnerable in a tactical race, and that should be taken on board. On the other hand, the race has also been won by plenty of stayers down the years and if Paul Townend wants to set an end-to-end gallop, then Final Demand looks a willing partner. I think he’s a much better option than The New Lion and he deserves to be favourite.

Given what I’ve said above, I would not put anyone off Final Demand if getting 2/1 or bigger, but in acknowledging that his 12-length defeat of Wingmen at Leopardstown is the best form in the race, I must also point out that THE YELLOW CLAY beat Wingmen by 11 lengths and Jasmin de Vaux by 22 when winning the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas at – well, you know where it’s at – in January. Given Wingmen and Jasmin de Vaux finished third and fourth at Naas and then finished second and fourth at Leopardstown, it could be argued that they are excellent yardsticks for the novice form, and The Yellow Clay has a very similar chance to Final Demand on a line through the pair of them.

Much has been made of the fact that The Lawlor’s was run on heavy ground as if that was a big advantage to The Yellow Clay, but I thought he hated the ground (I think they all hated the ground, in truth) and that his inherent class saw him home. He certainly doesn’t need heavy, running below form in the Champion Bumper last year, albeit with credit, before turning the tables on Romeo Coolio at Punchestown in the Grade 1 bumper there, where he also had William Munny and Jasmin de Vaux behind. His first two hurdles wins also came on yielding ground, and he beat Fleur In The Park much more easily in the Monksfield than he did in the Navan Novice Hurdle on softer ground in December. Gordon Elliott seemed to me to have a twinkle in his eye when he says, “I’m not sure he’s as slow as people think” and he looks the standout value in the contest.

Turners Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

Turners Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Lots of paper pace, and that man Mullins has the cards in terms of dictating the tempo. Should be truly run.

Turners Novices' Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: Back The Yellow Clay each-way at 13/2.

Matt's Tix Pix: Two A's

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2.00 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

This race has had an average field size of 11 runners but, as with last year when six went to post, we have a shorter field of just seven here. I was hoping for the 'dead eight' which as a punter clearly gives more options. Let's first look at past trends in this race going back 25 years.

Irish bred runners have won 19 of the 25 races from 172 runners which equates to 11% and have had just under 30% hit the frame; other countries combined (GB/FR etc) are 6 wins from 103 (5.8%) with 21% placed.

Age wise, 7yos have dominated with 20 wins from the last 25. Yes, they have had more than half of the total runners, 52% to be precise, but from that 52% they have won 80% of the races (31.3% placed). 6yos have just one win from 48 but have a decent placed record and they have just one qualifier this year in Quai De Bourbon. 8yos are three from 53 (5.7%) but with only 17% hitting the frame.

Looking at past market factors, between 1999 and 2014 there were seven double figure priced winners, but none since. There have been nine winning favourites (six in last 10 years) and 10 of the last 11 renewals have gone to one of the front three in the market.

Previous winning course form has been a plus with past Cheltenham winners 1.8 times more likely to win than those that have not. Previous Festival winners have done very well from a small band of runners. Of the 20 prior Cheltenham Festival winners five won (25%) and 12 in total won or  placed (60%). Backing all 20 would have yielded a 61% ROI to BSP.

23 of the 25 winners won or came second LTO. Horses that finished third or worse are just two from 87 (2.3%).

All 25 winners raced between three and 11 weeks previously. Fifty horses have either run with a shorter or longer break than that and all of them lost, with only 10% of them managing a place.

Willie Mullins has saddled the winner five times, and he has the top two in the betting (and four of the seven runners in total). The favourite, Ballyburn, ticks many of the trends boxes. He won the Turners Novices’ hurdle at an absolute canter at the Festival last year; he won last time out; and he is eight from ten in his career, and two from three over fences. His loss over fences came at Kempton in December when beaten a speedier Sir Gino over two miles. This race is at three miles which is uncharted territory for him, but with the ground as it is, the consensus is he has every chance of staying. He is well clear on Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed and he looks a solid favourite, albeit at a short price.

Second favourite Dancing City has been ultra consistent over both hurdles and fences. From a trends perspective, however, he has a few negatives to overcome. He is an 8yo, is French bred, and has yet to win at Cheltenham. That said, and to be fair, he has only raced here once when third in last year’s Albert Bartlett. A positive is that we know he gets the trip.

Third in the market is Better Days Ahead, an interesting contender from the Gordon Elliott yard. He won at the festival last year in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (positive trend) and is two from three this year with his sole defeat being by a head two starts back at Leopardstown. He has only raced in very small fields over fences, and he will get that again here. A winner at the distance, there are no stamina concerns.

Gorgeous Tom has a few trends to overcome including finishing only fourth last time in the Grade 1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse (2m4f), but he was rattling home that day and would have won in a few more strides. He has to prove himself over the extra distance and, if he does, he could be seriously overpriced around 12/1. If there had been eight runners, he would have been my each way pick along with my win selection below.

Brown Advisory Chase Recent Winners

Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map

Ballyburn may make his own running but will perhaps more likely sit behind a stablemate (Lecky or Quai).

Brown Advisory Pace Map 2025

Brown Advisory Chase Selection

Ballyburn is a short price and generally I’m not a short odds player. However, I think he is a 10/11 maybe even 5/6 chance, and he is still odds against in a few places which I think represents value.

Suggestion: Back Ballyburn at odds against.

Matt's Tix Pix: Ballyburn on A, and a couple of alternates on B

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2.40 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

Previewed by David Massey.

The Coral Cup is one of my favourite races of the week to tackle, as there are some trends that can help us try and find the winner, but equally you’ve a chance of hitting something at a big ol’ price. Four of the last seven winners have gone off 20/1 or bigger, with 33/1 Heaven Help Us and 50/1 Commander Of Fleet among them, so this is a race that can throw up proper shocks.

It used to be the case that backing those towards the top end of the handicap lost money on a regular basis, but since the handicaps became more compressed that is no longer the case. The first five home last year all carried 11st or more, and the angle of a class dropper, despite having to carry a big weight, is one that should not be overlooked.

Ballyadam is a perfect case in point. He’s a Festival regular, having finished fifth in the 2023 County Hurdle (under 11-7) and then second to the, ahem, rejuvenated Langer Dan in this under the welter burden of twelve stone last year. He often mixes it at levels with the best of them, but can clearly operate when asked to give weight away to inferior horses despite age catching up with him. He’s lightly raced for a ten-year-old, and looks sure to give another good account of himself. A drop of rain Wednesday morning (some is forecast) would help his cause, too.

Just underneath Ballyadam on the racecard is Eagle Fang, and I’ve long thought he could be the type to go well in a race such as this. He was one of the picks of the paddock for the Fred Winter last year but blew out, Philip Enright going round the inside on heavy ground probably not helping his cause. I made him one to follow all the same and it didn’t take long for that faith to be repaid, when he came good at a big price at Punchestown in May.

He lost nothing in defeat to Home By The Lee in Grade 2 company at Navan in November and, off the back of that, connections tried their luck in the Grade 1 Long Walk at Ascot. Having looked like he might get involved for the places at one point his stamina rather gave way, and the combination of that and Grade 1 company ultimately proved too much. Nevertheless, he was only beaten nine lengths and on the figures had taken another step forward. It’s worth bearing in mind Oakley Brown was unable to claim his 5lb allowance there, which he will be able to do here, and having had a bit of a break since Ascot is no bad thing either. The worry is that a mark of 147 looks a touch too high so, for all I think he’ll run well, others make a shade more appeal.

At the front end of the market you simply cannot ignore Impose Toi, given Nicky Henderson’s record in the race (four winners) and owner JP McManus, notwithstanding that he throws plenty of darts at this, has had the winner three times and numerous others placed in the race. Impose Toi dotted up here (over two miles) a couple of seasons ago and at that stage all sorts of fancy entries were bandied about. He ran to a very similar level in two subsequent starts in hot handicaps. We’ve only seen him the once this year, when winning with something to spare over 2m4½f at Newbury, and this strong-travelling sort looks just the type to go well here. Cheekpieces go on, which I think is neither here nor there (it isn’t the negative it used to be perceived as in this race) and he has to go well, I feel.

And where is the daft each-way fiver at a silly price going? Look no further than Lossiemouth (not that one, the other one), a former Grade 2 winner for Tom Lacey who has come back from a long absence this season to run perfectly well for Polly Gundry in three competitive handicap hurdles, all around three miles. Now, I’m not totally convinced he stays that far, and this drop back in trip could be just what the doctor ordered. He shapes as if he retains most of his ability and a mark of 133 is fair and reflects where we are with him at present. He’ll be ignored in the market, but it would be no surprise to me if he hit the frame here.

Coral Cup Recent Winners

Coral Cup Pace Map

Loads of pace, headed by Maxxum and 'the other' Lossiemouth. Cards played late may be the answer tactically.

Coral Cup Selection

Impose Toi looks like he ought to go close and, at monster prices, 'the other' Lossiemouth could give a run for each way money. Bag the extra places where you can.

Suggestion: Back Impose Toi to win at 9/1, and/or Lossiemouth each way at 40/1 or bigger.

Matt's Tix Pix: LOTS on A, and quite a few on B!

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3.20 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)

Previewed by Matt Tombs.

The Cross Country reverts to being a handicap after eight renewals as a level-weights race, albeit it is now a 20lb limited handicap rather than the full 26lb.

The key to betting on the Cross Country is understanding the nature of the course. At Punchestown and Pardubice the cross-country tracks pre-date the conventional tracks but at Cheltenham it had to be shoehorned into the middle of the existing conventional courses in the 1990s.

The consequence is that the Cheltenham cross-country course is extremely tight and sharp. There are very few opportunities to gallop until the business end. As such, the skillset needed is to be able to negotiate the variety of obstacles, keeping on an even keel and then an ability to quicken when the sprint starts.

In consequence, they go slowly for much of the race and so it’s much easier for the classy horses to give the weight away. Three of the 11 renewals as a 26lb handicap were won by the top-weight – and that was when the race was contested by lower quality horses than it is today.

As a level-weights race it was dominated in recent years by ex-Grade 1 horses: if they took to the idiosyncratic test they had a huge advantage, outclassing the handicappers they were up against.

In the last five renewals if you’d applied a simple 1lb for 1 length approach, the winner would have won even if it had been a 20lb handicap. Given that it’s easier to give the weight away going so slowly, I think the top-weights are at an even bigger advantage than that ‘standard’ method suggests.

The question all season was who was going to realise that and continue to target their ex-Grade 1 horses at the race - and who was going to think that because it was a handicap they wouldn’t win and so wouldn’t run their ex-Grade 1 horses.

Gordon Elliott seems to have worked this out and, ground permitting, was always aiming Galvin at the race. He has won six of the last seven renewals and, whilst the fact it’s a handicap makes it harder for him, he is still the trainer to focus on. Gordon is 6/23 +3pt (15% ROI) so far. 13 of those 23 runners finished in the first three.

Even when it was a 26lb handicap the front of the market dominated – 8 of the 11 renewals were won by one of the first three in the market. Seven of the eight level-weights renewals did, too, and with much classier types in this than the old 2005-2015 handicap I’m expecting the front of the market to continue to dominate.

The ground was always going to be important. The Cross Country course doesn’t have the artificial drainage that the conventional tracks have but equally it’s harder to water. Cheltenham now can water it but there is only one race on it and they tend to do so sparingly to avoid fast ground rather watering for slow ground. As a result, it tends to ride more naturally. The weather gods have favoured Galvin with the ground due to be predominantly good to soft.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Recent Winners

*Handicap up to 2015, conditions race 2016-2024, reverted to a handicap in 2025. Abandoned in 2024.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map

This will be a jog then sprint affair, so the pace map is very much for information purposes only.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection

Suggestion: Back Galvin at anything above 5/2.

Matt's Tix Pix: Galvin banker

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4.00 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The Champion Chase is the pre-eminent speed test for top class chasers but, this year, it's a race shorn of many of its likelier lads, due to injury, poor form or that pesky Ryanair Chase. One bona fide star that will get the green (and gold) light is Jonbon, whose eleventh hour withdrawal twelve months ago robbed the race - and racing fans - of its main protagonist.

In his absence, Henry de Bromhead swooped to conquer with 17/2 shot Captain Guinness. The Captain defends his crown but has been in far less authoritative form this time around. Still, a glance at the Recent Winners section below attests to the folly of discounting a de Bromhead runner in the QMCC: he also won the race in 2021, 2017 and 2011. Guinness may be on many revellers' minds on Wednesday afternoon, but it's far more likely they're pondering another pint of the black stuff than a punt on a horse whose best run of three this term was a 26 length pasting by Solness.

Henry also runs Quilixios, a slightly bigger price even than Captain Guinness. A confirmed front runner, the former Triumph Hurdle winner is unlikely to have it all his way on the sharp end with, most notably, Solness expected to vie for early primacy. But his run behind Jonbon at Sandown in December's Tingle Creek gives him only a large hill, rather than a mountain, to climb to beat the fav.

We really ought to discuss Jonbon. Trained by Nicky Henderson, who saddled the Champion Chase winner in 1992, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2018 and 2019, a Jonbon victory would make him the outright winningmost trainer in the history of the race; and his lad is a shade of odds on to do it.

On any of a number of runs from this season and last, he is the best horse in the race. His jumping is usually assured, his run style is versatile and he has no ground allergies. So why isn't he shorter in the market? Well, come the hour and he might be; but, to this point, there have been murmurings of a Cheltenham issue as well as the fact that the Champion Chase has been a bridge too far for a plethora of shorties in recent times.

El Fabiolo, at 2/9, was the latest strong favourite to succumb last year, and was preceded by Shishkin (5/6) in 2022, Chacun Pour Soi (8/13) in 2021, Defi Du Seuil (2/5) in 2020, Douvan (2/9) in 2017, Un De Sceaux (4/6) in 2016, Sizing Europe (4/5) in 2012, Master Minded (4/5) in 2010, Well Chief (Evs) in 2007, Moscow Flyer (5/6) in 2004 and Flagship Uberalles (11/10) in 2000. Holy hotpots!

It should be said that 6/5 Energumene, 4/11 and Evs Altior, 1/4 Sprinter Sacre and 4/11 Master Minded all got it done in the same time window and it's well worth noting that three of that quintet were trained by Henderson. Only Shishkin from the 'naughty' list was sent from Seven Barrows.

Jonbon is a bit of a machine. He's won 17 of his 20 races, and been second on the other three occasions. Perhaps he's another to bet with the 'money back as free bet if second' concession with the tote. The three defeats were by a superlative Constitution Hill in an awe-inspiring Supreme in 2022; a rampant El Fabiolo (before that one lost the plot) in the Arkle of 2023; and - the only downright disappointment - in the re-routed Clarence House Chase last year (Ascot was unraceable so the race was staged at Cheltenham - Jonbon was beaten a neck at 1/4).

After a quiet but winning seasonal debut this campaign, the green and gold silks have sauntered to success twice more - both at Grade 1 level - and he just looks a man amongst veterans and juniors.

Energumene commands great respect as a two-time winner of the race, in 2022 and 2023 aged 8 and 9; but he missed the gig last year and is 11 now. True, that didn't stop Moscow Flyer rolling back the years when claiming his second Champion Chase in 2005 but the Flyer entered as the best horse in the race and was returned 6/4 favourite. Energumene is no longer the best in the field. Still, he's an 11-time winner from 14 starts and may have degenerated insufficiently to miss the podium.

A few of the Irish contenders have incestuous form lines. Solness came out on top, ahead of Marine Nationale, Quilixios and Captain Guinness in the Dublin Chase at DRF: having led from early in the race, he established a big advantage which was all but erased by MN approaching the last. But the runner up found less than anticipated while the winner found more than might have been expected. They were clear of the remainder. I do have a suspicion that Quilixios may have been under-cooked and also may have raced on the worst of the ground up the inner, where his rivals pretty much all took the high road close to the outer rail.

Prior to February's Dublin Chase, Solness had also beaten Marine Nationale by a similar margin in the Leopardstown Grade 1 at Christmas. There, Found A Fifty ran no sort of race and was pulled up. However, the last named was reported by the vet to have a dirty nose post-race rendering his effort a 'chuck out'. Earlier in the season, Found A Fifty had beaten Solness in the G2 Fortria Chase and had won over two and a half miles a fortnight prior in another Grade 2, that one on good ground.

Going back a little further, Gordon Elliott's charge got closest to a fully on song Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle at Cheltenham a year ago; so he handles quicker ground, has performed well at the Festival, and has two wins prior to a run that can be discounted from his three 2024/5 spins. He may be over-priced.

Beyond Jonbon, British hopes rest with Libberty Hunter. He was second in the G2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last month and has good Cheltenham handicap form on top of the ground. But this is a much bigger ask than handicaps for all that he was third in the Grade 1 Maghull at Aintree last spring.

Champion Chase Recent Winners

Champion Chase Pace Map

Quilixios and Solness, probably the latter, will go forward. Jonbon should sit just off that tempo with the rest expected to be more patiently ridden.

Champion Chase Selection

There is a weighty body of men (and women) who sailed to their wagering end due to the siren calls of short priced Champion Chase jollies, but some people never learn. Jonbon is clear of his field on any critical analysis of the form book and he looks a square enough price at close to even money as I write. That's obviously not a sexy price so each way alternatives are worth considering. I'm apprehensive of the Solness/Marine Nationale collateral, but appreciate I could have that wrong. Still, I don't want to bet something at 5/1 or so against what I think is a very solid favourite. Far better to have a tiny swing, either e/w or without the favourite, on either or both of Found A Fifty and/or Quilixios. Not much damage done if we miss at those sorts of prices.

Suggestion: Back Jonbon with the tote's 'money back as a free bet if second', and consider Found A Fifty or Quilixios in the 'without' and each way markets.

Matt's Tix Pix: Jonbon 'A' banker.

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4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. A key feature of the Grand Annual is that it is a kinder race for prominent racers, whereas the stiffer New Course was a benefit for hold-up horses. This is evident in the 'Recent Winners' section below where, prior to 2014, hold up horses were the de facto play; but since then, it's been the front half of the field (and a few midfielders) which has held sway. Le Prezien's 2018 score from off the pace is a helpful reminder that nothing is assured when shortlisting, but the balance of favour has very much been to those with more behind than in front through the early fractions.

A glance at the 'Form' column below shows that recent winning form is not a prerequisite, and nor is a recent run. Ratings wise, most winners were between 136 and 147, give or take, and that's an area on which to focus.

Looking for those within the ratings band and who are generally ridden in the front half of the field, I'm left with Unexpected Party, Fringill Dike, The King of Prs, and Traprain Law.

Unexpected Party won the race by daylight last year and is only 6lb higher this time around. He represents the 'Dead-eye Dan' Skelton barn who have been so successful in Cheltenham Festival handicaps in recent years, and may go close again. Expect him to race more prominently than in recent outings: he was near the speed when galloping away from them twelve months ago.

Gavin Cromwell is another handler for whom the handicaps have been a rich source of joy, and he's represented by The King Of Prs (and also My Mate Mozzie and Midnight It Is). The King best fits my tenuous shortlist bill though form of 231 this season has done little to mask his level of ability. He ran in the race last year but couldn't go the early tempo and made mistakes before falling, all of which tempers enthusiasm considerable.

JP McManus likes to have a swing at this. As well as four winners in the past two decades, McManus has owned fully nine runners up (thanks to Paul Ferguson and his Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide for this cracking snippet). The green and gold livery will be singularly sported by So Scottish this season. Second to Stayers' Hurdle-bound The Wallpark in a Listed handicap hurdle on yielding ground at the Galway Festival last summer - two poorer efforts since - he's not run over fences since December 2023, when he fell in the December Gold Cup. He's obviously a strong stayer and connections, including trainer Emmet Mullins, are hugely respected; but this would be a fine training performance were he to win.

Since 2009 there have been nine Grand Annual winners returned 16/1 or bigger, including 66/1, 40/1 and 28/1 twice. In that spirit, I'm returning to my shortlist and Fringill Dike and Traprain Law. Fringill Dike is a good ground specialist, typically races prominently and comes here well rested; true, he may be overly well rested and we have to take fitness on trust. To that end, form off a 100+ day absence over obstacles reads 112 which helps keep the faith. He's won five of his nine chases and he's 66/1 - that makes him worth a very small each way guess.

Traprain Law hails from the Lucinda Russell yard that knows how to win staying handicap chases at the Festival. Whether she can repeat the dose over a 'sprint' trip is a different question, of course, but she may have a better chance than the market implies with this second season chaser. He's a perennial prominent racer and has sometimes appeared to be outpaced in the latter stages of his races; perhaps this expected much faster tempo will run the finish out of his rivals?

Since 2014, the last time out finishing position of Grand Annual winners, as a form string, reads 94P08212309. That may (or may not) be another nod to So Scottish, whose claims are obviously not obvious, if you see what I mean.

Grand Annual Recent Winners

Grand Annual Pace Map

Licketty split, no doubt. Expected to favour those in the first half to two-thirds of the field over the very late runners. Unless they go an absolute million. Which they might.

Grand Annual Selection

The 2025 Grand Annual is, as always, a very difficult puzzle to solve. In that spirit, I'll try one from the top and two massive Hail Mary's. So Scottish is as much about his connections as his recent form; but delving further back would make him attractively handicapped in his own right. If we're to have another 'skinner winner' it might be one of Traprain Law or Fringill Dike, both of which seem well enough suited to the test with the important proviso that they might not be nearly good enough! They're worth 50p e/w to find out, though.

Suggestions: Try a small win bet on 10/1 So Scottish and even smaller each way bets on 25/1 Traprain Law and 66/1 Fringill Dike with all the extra places you can muster.

Matt's Tix Pix: Spreading out across A and B

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5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1, NH Flat, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Paul Jones.

Willie Mullins had been quieter than usual on the bumper scene up until the Dublin Racing Festival since which he has fired in three rockets and inherited another, and has five runners in total, so he is short odds to add to his current haul of 13 wins in the race.

Significantly in a race restricted to 4-6yos, 11 of his successes were with 5yos (and he only got one of his two winning 6yos from Gordon Elliott a fortnight before Cheltenham) so as a 6yo that slightly puts me off Gameofinches, though Fact To File was the same age when second two years ago.

Patrick Mullins has chosen Copacabana instead so Paul Townend is on Gameofinches. A speed figures guru who I respect, Andy Holding, has Copacabana with the lowest time figure of the whole field so I’m struggling to be with him at the prices given that he is favourite, even if Ruby Walsh has been talking him up as the one that he likes of the Mullins runners for the last fortnight. He can win of course but it will be a very different tempo of race to the one that he won at Navan.

Relegate caused a surprise here eight years ago following up her win in the Grade 2 mares’ bumper at the DRF and BAMBINO FEVER is trying to do likewise.

Ratings are usually overlooked when discussing the Champion Bumper as punters seem to prefer the whispers but they shouldn’t be. With her mares’ allowance, although only the perceived third choice of Mullins’ quintet, she is joint-top rated on BHA figures. That’s interesting as eight of the last 22 winners were top rated by BHA (if including a mares’ allowance), including five of the last ten and most of them didn’t start favourite. We had two joint-top rated contenders in 2022 and they finished 1-2.

At the top of those ratings we have Kalypso’Chance (130) and Bambino Fever (130) ahead of Aqua Force (127) who has recently moved to Mullins so they have done very little with him to make a difference, Idaho Sun (126) as the best of the Brits for Harry Fry, Fortune De Mer (125), Gameofinches (124), Copacabana (123), He Can’t Dance (123), Sortudo (123) and Heads Up (123).

Jody Townend rode Bambino Fever at the DRF and keeps the ride. Patrick was never in line to ride as would struggle to do the weight so he didn’t reject her.

Gordon Elliott prepared Sir Gerhard before he was switched late on to Mullins and had the second and third last year to add to his two wins in the race and, with Windbeneathmywings ruled out for David Pipe last week, he provides the main market rival to Team Mullins in Kalypso’Chance who beat Heads Up at Navan in a bumper where Elliott has run some of what turned out to be his very best horses down the years. It niggles me though that after he won Elliott hinted he had a better one.

As highlighted earlier, the main home hope has to sit it out so that mantle is now transferred to No Drama This End according to the market: he beat a well-fancied Skelton horse at Warwick. Nicholls doesn’t mind having a shy at the Champion Bumper but the closest that he has got was Captain Teague who was third two years ago. The last time the Brits won was with Ballyandy nine years ago.

The Skelton team have been talking up Fortune De Mer who won at Cheltenham earlier this season and was then beaten under a penalty on a sharp track last time and they know the time of day with their bumper team so he could be best of the Brits.

In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.

Champion Bumper Recent Winners

Champion Bumper Pace Map

Pinch of salt pace map...

2025 Champion Bumper pace map

Champion Bumper selection

In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.

 Suggestion: Back Bambino Fever each way

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And that's a wrap on Day 2. My thanks again to the five judges who have kindly shared their thoughts. Remember, the value game is not about a winner a race but a profit at the end of the year - let's hope also at the end of this week!

Good luck!

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day One Preview, Tips

/in , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day One Preview, Tips

We're back! The 2025 Cheltenham Festival is here and, for those of us who have found patience for its arrival difficult, the great news is it starts ten minutes earlier! Yes, it's a 1.20pm kick off each day, moved from the traditional half-one slot, so don't tune in late...

After the success of recent big meeting previews, where the races have been divvied among a brains trust of racing judges, I'm joined by some estimable company for this year's Cheltenham Festival preview posts. They are:

Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.

David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.

Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.

Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.

Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.

They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?

Also, a quick reminder about our Tix competition where you can win £100 each day. Full details are in this post, including the rules, but basically the person who gets the highest odds winning ticket wins. That means it's a level playing field for small and large stakes players so everyone has the same chance of winning. Tix is here.

Let's get to it. Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start; do not oversleep.

1.20 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The traditional curtain raiser. The roar of the crowd. It's become cliché to mention the roar but, if you've ever been on the side of that hill some time in the middle of the hour after 1pm, you'll know it's a real, almost palpable, spirit that manifests: 55,001+ individual exhortations merging into a single raucous cheer. Part relief that the waiting is over, part hope for what might come next, all expectation of a thrilling carnival of the horse... and they're off!

Hardly surprising, then, that in such a frenzied cauldron cool heads - whether connected above two or four legs - are tricky to find. Including the preliminaries, this is a twenty minute test of temperament as much as class, speed, agility and staying power. It is a thoroughly searching examination.

So who, and which, present themselves to the trial this time? In what is an almost exclusively Irish affair in 2025, with just two home challengers (one of those a triple digit price), in theory that makes assessing the form easier; there is no need to guess which of the cohorts separated by the Irish Sea might be ascendant. Here, at least, it will be the Irish on top. And yes, probably more generally so, too. Probably, but not definitely...

Current head boy is Kopek Des Bordes, unbeaten in three and rampant in a Grade 1 when last seen. On the bare form of that Dublin Racing Club score he's a few pounds ahead of the next best, for all that he'll likely need to find a little more to withstand the onslaught of this field, all of which are entitled to improve. That's the nature of races like the Supreme, as different from more workaday contests: it's not enough to know which horse has shown the best form so far - we must project to which might step forward the most under these conditions.

Think of it like this: Kopek Des Bordes begins the race with a few lengths' head start over the next most talented horse - on what we've seen to date let's call that one Romeo Coolio. Romeo in turn gets a couple of lengths on Salvator Mundi who is himself a couple in front of William Munny and Workahead. It's a staggered ability start.

But during the course of four minutes or so of racing much can change. Advantages can be whittled or extended, and as they collect beyond the jam stick at the top of the hill there will be a revised pecking order at least somewhere on the squash ladder.

Let's return to KdB. Yes, he was imperious at Leopardstown and, if your modus operandi is not to question but merely to punt in tune with the market, he's very likely to give you a stirring run for your rupees. But the value seeker has to furrow her brow, stroke his chin and scratch its head as she/he/it considers how each horse might get beaten, and how likely it is that they will be, before settling on a wager at the prevailing odds. For a majority of runners in all races, the most likely reason they'll be beaten is because they are not good enough. But that's not the only bullet to dodge.

Kopek Des Bordes is trained by Willie Mullins, a man with seven victories in this race, the first two of which returned 25/1 and 40/1. But those were in 1995 and 2007, and Willie is a little bit better known these days. His five subsequent winners, achieved between 2013 and 2021, all returned 6/1 or shorter and were all ridden by the first string jockey. So far, so Kopek - he certainly won't be beaten because of his connections.

But this fella has shown signs of immaturity in the past. On his first run this season, on St Stephen's/Boxing Day at Leopardstown, he over raced early and was clumsy at every single flight. He still won, comfortably, in a big field containing some smart novices. Perhaps it was just freshness after his summer layoff, and greenness on his first public hurdles outing.

He returned to that same venue five weeks later and was a new man, nearly. Still a little keen for much of the race, his jumping had been transformed and he was alert enough to dodge a loose horse crossing his path as it ran out. In the finish he laughed at this Grade 1 gang, many of which appeared credible contenders pre-race. It was a terrific performance and one that promises more when he learns to settle better.

If he is headstrong, he'll need to cope with a first trip outside Ireland; and with the Festival preamble, rarely more of a test than for the opening race; and with the anxiety of his rider down at the start (even the most experienced and calmest of pilots gets dem buttyflies circling by the tape). Frankly, he's expended so much nervous energy in his first two hurdle races without facing a serious challenge in the run to the line that expecting a boilover to change the result might be wishful thinking. But if there is a chink in his armour, that's the prime suspect.

Who else? What about Romeo Coolio? Trained by Gordon Elliott, who tends to swerve the DRF with his A listers, Romeo was second in the Champion Bumper here last year (travelling, check) and won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novices' Hurdle at Christmas (class, check). He's also shown form on soft through to good to yielding turf (going, check). It was a taking performance in slamming Bleu De Vassy by nine lengths in the G1 but the horses he beat were thumped by Kopek Des Bordes over the same track and trip in February. He looks reliable but perhaps hasn't got quite the upside of the favourite. And the former Deloitte Hurdle that Kopek won has a much better track record in Supreme terms than the Future Champions.

Salvator Mundi has had a tall reputation ever since chasing home Sir Gino in France, both horses subsequently purchased by the Donnelly's. He ran a midfield race on his UK debut, in the Triumph Hurdle no less, and didn't race in Ireland until May of last year when he picked up a maiden hurdle in a field of 13 by... checks notes... 62 lengths! It's fair to say that was an extremely moderate contest in this context so what happened next? Salvator went to Punchestown for the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in mid-January and won by three lengths. His performance there - pulled hard, jumped poorly - was reminiscent of Kopek Des Bordes' seasonal debut; if he can improve a similar amount, in form and comportment terms, he's clear second best and has a chance to derail his more illustrious stablemate. If.

The last two winning trainers in the race were Henry de Bromhead and Barry Connell, both of whom have had the horrible misfortune to be touched (or in Henry's case, gripped) by tragedy in recent years. De Bromhead bids to repeat last year's success with the unexposed Workahead. Winner of a point on his debut in January 2023 (form has some substance), he was off then until early December last year when running third in a huge field behind Jasmin De Vaux. He came on for that effort in clearing away, by seven lengths from William Munny, in a maiden at Christmas.

William Munny, representing Connell, whose 2023 winner Marine Nationale was ridden by the late Michael O'Sullivan, so tragically lost and in whose memory the race is now named, has run twice since defeat to Workahead: a close second to the now injured Kawaboomga and then an easy win in Listed company last month. Neither of those runs quite match up to Workahead's performance in beating him, and Henry's horse has much the greater scope to improve. The 75 day layoff is a bit of a concern but de Bromhead knows what he's doing when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.

We're getting into the longer grass now with the likes of Irancy and Karbau, Mullins 'also engaged' types. Both are unexposed albeit with a more ordinary level of form, and neither make much appeal given Willie's first string record in this race.

Closest to Kopek Des Bordes at Leopardstown was Karniquet, who I quite fancied for the County Hurdle. Instead, he's been declared here and, though I bet him months ago, I'm behind the current price and don't fancy him one bit in this company. Funiculi Funicula is the final string to Willie's hirsute bow and he comes here off a Clonmel maiden score, which is like getting going from the springboard at your local baths to cliff diving in Mexico: good luck with that project.

There are two home contenders, comfortably the more likely of the duo being Tripoli Flyer. He was a good winner of the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, form that is solid but not spectacular. Connections initially suggested he'd miss the Cheltenham party, but here he is and it feels a bit of an afterthought. Likeable chap all the same. Tutti Quanti and Henry's other runner, Sky Lord, might need to start now to have a winning chance.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Pace Projection

More Willie's out front than an am dram production of Hot Fuzz.

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection

This revolves around Kopek Des Bordes. He seems sure to be on the premises assuming he doesn't boil over and he might be almost (almost!) a bet to nothing with the 'money back (as free bet) if second' books. A value alternative is Workahead, lightly raced but with very good form in the book already. He jumps well, looks a strong stayer and has the scope to step forward a fair bit.

Suggestion: Back Kopek Des Bordes with the 'money back if second' concession. And/or try Workahead each way at 8/1 or bigger.

 

Matt's Tix Pix: Tix is a smart multi-race bet placement tool that is free to use. In this race, I'll have the favourite on A and a couple of alternatives, as well as unnamed favourite on B.

You can find Tix here.

There are guaranteed £750,000 daily placepot pools, and you can play with stakes as low as a penny.

Each day of the Cheltenham Festival, you can win £100 in our best stake-to-return Tix competition. Check out the Tix comp rules here >

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2.00 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Previewed by Paul Jones.

I have not been able to find an Arkle bet all season.

And I’m still struggling, with Majborough being a strong favourite that is hard to oppose after impressing in both chase starts this season, and also having already won at the Festival when taking last season’s Triumph. Some will point to no five-year-old having won the Arkle since the weight allowance was eradicated but none of those since Voy Por Ustedes were in Marlborough’s class and he won a four-year-old championship despite Mullins stating he looked more like a three-mile chaser. He looks correctly priced at 4/7 to finally give J P McManus a first Arkle winner and Willie Mullins his seventh in 11 years.

So, I have been waiting for a 'without Majborough' market to emerge for some inspiration for a bet and we have just four to choose from (would have been three but for the jettisoning of the Turners). They are headed by L’Eau Du Sud who is 4-4 over fences including landing the Grade 1 Henry VIII and two Grade 2s at Warwick and here over course and distance.

And that Cheltenham win was where I thought he jumped the best of his four wins. I doubt he was fully wound up at Warwick where he won the race early after kicking on five out. Too early as it turned out as Rubaud almost caught him, that one having won the Pendil since, so I’m fancying Harry Skelton to hold L’Eau Du Sud up this time and ride him to have one go at Majborough; that is also the best way to ride him if they want to guarantee good prize money for the Trainers’ Championship and David Power Cup which is also in their minds. I’m sure Dan left plenty to work on fitness-wise in the Kingmaker.

Personally, I think the best chance they have of beating Majborough is to sit on his outside and put the jolly’s jumping under pressure, as he made niggly errors at three fences down the back straight and there are two extra fences to be jumped in the Arkle over a sharper test of speed and a shorter race. Will they do that, or prefer to ride him patiently and pounce late?

I fancy that Jango Baie is a better horse than L’Eau Du Sud but can he be as effective as the grey over two miles? Without a doubt, he’d be in the Turners over 2m4f if that race still existed. A Grade 1 winning novice hurdler rated 8lb higher than Dan Skelton’s charge over hurdles, he too jumped Cheltenham very well when winning in December, and the runner-up Springwell Bay is now rated 154 after winning since so two big ticks there. Narrowly beaten by Handstands last time in sticky ground, where Nico was kind of looking after him with the spring in mind, even over two miles I’d expect him to improve on that effort. Can he give Nicky Henderson an eighth win in the race?

Touch Me Not is expected to make the pace but having been beaten by L’Eau Du Sud at Sandown by 3¾l (made a bad mistake at half-way though didn’t lose much momentum) and Majborough at Leopardstown by 9l, it’s hard to make an argument why he can cause an upset and many would rather see him in the Grand Annual instead. On a literal line through him, Majborough has over 5l in hand over L’Eau Du Sud.

More interesting of the two outsiders is Only By Night with her 7lb mares’ allowance, which Put The Kettle On took advantage of to win the 2020 Arkle. She would be half the odds (or even more) if running in the Mares’ Chase so this is a bold move from her connections but they know she is fully effective at 2m whereas 2m4f wasn’t a guarantee on Friday. A fine jumper and a big, scopey mare, she has taken off for going chasing.

Arkle Recent Winners

Arkle Pace Projection

Touch Me Not will probably unwittingly make the pace for Majborough, with the likes of L'Eau du Sud expected to play later. It's possible Nico tries to use Jango Baie's stamina and goes for home mid-race.

Arkle Chase Selection

In short, all markets including the Without-fav market look bang on so I can’t find an Arkle bet. Sorry! Better luck tomorrow!

Suggestion: No bet.

Matt's Tix Pix: Maj banker on A, with some 'just in case' C cover.

Check out Tix here >

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2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and in these types of races I use past race trends at Cheltenham as an important part of my narrowing the field process.

This is a race where British trainers have dominated, with no Irish winner since Tony Martin’s Dun Doire in 2006. However, the Irish are targeting the race more than they have done in the past having had seven runners in 2022 and eight last year. This year there are five Irish-trained entries with Malina Girl the shortest priced at around the 12/1 mark.

Looking at the British challenge Lucinda Russell won the Ultima in 2022 and 2023 with Corach Rambler. Prior to that she saddled four other runners, priced 20/1, 28/1, 16/1 and 25/1, finishing 4th, 4th, 5th and 6th respectively. This time, she runs Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown. The O’Neill yard have had three wins and four placed runners from 25 starters although their last win was back in 2014. Their sole entry this year is Crebilly. David Pipe, who runs King Turgeon, has also enjoyed three winners as well as the runner up in 2022.

Time to dig into other past trends.

23 of the last 25 winners finished in the first six last time out (LTO), with the two wins from those 7th or worse coming at a cost of 163 runners.

From a market perspective 19 of the 25 winners came from the top five in the betting, including 11 of the last 12.

56% of all runners have been Irish-bred yet they have provided the winner 84% of the time (21 times). Irish-breds have outperformed all other countries of breeding in the place market, too, hitting 22% compared with 15%.

Other positives include a LTO market rank in the top four of the betting, and having one to three career chase wins.

Looking at weight carried there is a roughly even split between the top half of the weights and the bottom half.

Age wise seven- and eight-year-olds have provided 64% of the winners from 46% of the runners so there would be a marginal preference for those compared to other ages.

The two that tick all of the main trends boxes are The Changing Man and Broadway Boy.

The Changing Man easily won a weak-looking renewal of the Reynoldstown last time but, more importantly for me, his previous three runs when second each time came in top notch handicaps. Detractors could argue why should he suddenly break that run of seconds in handicaps, but it is hard to see him out of the frame.

Broadway Boy is well fancied by the stable and this has been the target. Yes, he does have a couple of negatives – the 0 from 32 stable record in the race (last 25 years), and his disappointing run last time at Cheltenham. However, the yard has rarely had fancied runners in this race (just three sent off at single figure odds) and there were valid excuses for his most recent poor run. His other Cheltenham form is excellent, comprising three wins, a second and a third from five other starts. He likes to race up with the pace and so should stay out of trouble.

While discussing run style this race has seen hold up horses as the most successful group in the past 25 years. However, in the more recent past the Ultima has seemingly started to favour prominent racers. The pace map is below.

The main competition for the lead with Broadway Boy looks likely to be in the shape of Myretown – hopefully they won’t take each other on too early.

Horses that join The Changing Man and Broadway Boy on my shortlist include Henry’s Friend. He ticks most of the trends and had a good win last time out. He jumps well and he should be close to the pace. Whistle Stop Tour also matches most of the trends and, as mentioned earlier, his trainer Lucinda Russell knows how to get her runners right for this one. A horse at a bigger price that I can see running well is Famous Bridge. He came fourth last year and, although 3lb higher now, his last run at Haydock was impressive albeit over further. With several bookies offering six places his price of around 18/1 offers each way punters an option.

My final piece of number-crunching is that, looking at the past 10 years, if backing all horses in the top five of the betting ‘blind’ one would have secured an ROI of 57% to SP and 78% to BSP. A good profit would have been achieved if backing all qualifiers to place on the exchange. You'll not be surprised, therefore, to see four of my shortlisted runners near the head of the market.

Ultima Recent Winners

Ultima Pace Projection

An even looking tempo overall, though a lot of perennially prominent racers may push things on from the start.

 

Ultima Handicap Chase Selection

Suggestion: Try Broadway Boy win only at 15/2 

Matt's Tix Pix: A's and B's and not straying far from the top of the market.

Check out Tix here >

 

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3.20 Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m4f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

The race which has changed complexion most since confirmations is the Mares’ Hurdle, starting with the supplementary entry of William Hill (Schweppes for those over 55) Hurdle winner Joyeuse, followed by a surprise (to many) switch for Lossiemouth, who we’d been told was definitely on track for the Champion Hurdle; and, at the last minute, Golden Ace, definitely on track for this according to Jeremy Scott, jumped into the Champion Hurdle instead.

All that to-ing and fro-ing means the ante-post betting needs treating with caution, and if you’re worried that your pre-confirmations pick is now drifting, that’s only to be expected thanks to the influence Lossiemouth will have on the market. Whether she will have the same impact in the race is the big question, and my gut instinct was that switching her was a sign that Willie Mullins wasn’t happy enough with her wellbeing to think she could win or run well in a Champion Hurdle. If that’s the case it could be argued that she is too short, at around 4/6, for this race. Whatever race you’re running in at the Festival, you can’t afford to be short of your peak even if the ratings suggest otherwise.

The counterpoint to the above argument was put forward by Ruby Walsh on Paddy Power’s FTHM podcast on Sunday when he said the switch was simply a case of Paul Townend wanting to ride Lossiemouth. Had she run in the Champion, Townend would have ridden State Man, but he’d also rather ride Lossiemouth than Jade de Grugy in this race and hence the decision was made to switch target. You don’t have to believe that story, but it’s there for you to mull over in any case, having implications for the chances of both Lossiemouth and the original ante-post favourite.

Aside from the argument as to her wellbeing and how a heavy fall at Leopardstown last time will have affected her, there is also the debate about what Lossiemouth achieved 12 months ago. Beating Telmesomethinggirl, Hispanic Moon and Lantry Lady (beaten a total of 169 lengths in their four completed starts since) is not the performance it was cracked up to be at the time. She is a grand mare, but definitely a little overrated in some quarters, and her run behind Constitution Hill at Kempton is a fair guide to her ability. A repeat of that might be just enough to win this, but she doesn’t really appeal at her odds-on quote.

Jade de Grugy has undeniable form claims having won a Grade 1 as a novice, and she was visually impressive in winning the Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown on her belated return. I think there’s an element of recency bias in the way she’s been catapulted to the head of the market, and she has been shunned by Paul Townend which is hardly a boost to backers’ confidence. She is still a trifle short in the betting on balance based on the generic drift in the field when Lossiemouth was declared, although she may get bigger on the day. On the other hand, it’s not easy to make a strong case for the same connections’ Gala Marceau, who was disappointing at Warwick behind Royale Margaux, with a blunder two out incidental in the grand scheme.

Joyeuse was supplemented for this after winning the William Hill Hurdle impressively off a mark of 123, but even if you take the view she had a stone in hand that day she would still have something to find at this level, and it should be borne in mind that she had no other options at Cheltenham having failed to qualify for the handicaps.

July Flower has shown smart form in France, with the pick of her efforts a third in the French Champion Hurdle behind Losange Bleu and Hewick last May. She’s disappointed in two UK starts, pulling too hard, but settled better when winning on her return for Henry de Bromhead in the Grade 3 Kerrymount Mares’ Hurdle over an extended 2m3f at Leopardstown in late December, beating Kala Conti and Jetara by 4 lengths and 16 lengths, respectively.

July Flower was well ridden to score in the Kerrymount, Rachael Blackmore sitting a little way off the strong pace set by Lot of Joy and Jetara before closing up from halfway and expending her energy more efficiently than the leaders. Kala Conti was closer to that pace and made her bid for home earlier than ideal but was still only four lengths adrift of July Flower in second at the line. Kala Conti was conceding 5lb to the winner on the day, and I would rate her higher on the figures for that contest, as would most conventional handicappers.

The Leopardstown form looked good at the time and has been franked by subsequent black-type wins for Jetara and World of Fortunes, while Lot of Joy, beaten 48 lengths there, finished much closer to Jade de Grugy in the Quevega last month.

Mares' Hurdle Recent Winners

Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection

No obvious pace angle and it might be that Lossiemouth makes her own running to keep it simple and safe.

Mares' Hurdle Selection

If there is one mare who is unexposed and capable of improvement at this trip, it’s KALA CONTI, who was racing beyond 2m for the first time in the Kerrymount and arguably produced a career-best effort, although it’s worth pointing out that her defeat of Kargese and Nurburgring in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown last season is a pretty warm piece of form, as is finishing within half a length of Majborough in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at the same track 13 months ago. Or even a second-place finish behind the much-vaunted Anzadam when carrying a 5lb penalty in the Grade 3 Willowwarm Hurdle earlier this season.

Gordon Elliott has not been shouting Kala Conti from the rooftops, but her form credentials are there in plain sight, and her price has consistently failed to reflect those claims, perhaps because she was expected in some quarters to head to the Coral Cup. At one stage, July Flower was 5/1 for this while Kala Conti was 25/1 and while the differential is smaller now, I would argue strongly that it’s Kala Conti who should be the shorter price of the pair. As such, she represents perhaps the best each-way value of the week in the Championship and quasi-championship races at the meeting.

Suggestion: Back Kala Conti each way at around 16/1.

Matt's Tix Pix: Lossie and Jade on A, plus a few B's here in search of a result, I think.

Check out Tix here >

 

4.00 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The highlight on day one is unquestionably the Champion Hurdle and, for what it lacks in quantity of runners, it more than compensates through their sheer quality. The last two winners of the race return and will be joined by a mare in receipt of seven pounds and who put up arguably the performance of the season. Let's get to the details.

The 2024 winner was State Man, a first since 2016 for Willie Mullins, and he defends his crown after a somewhat middling campaign by his own lofty standards. A narrow defeat to Brighterdaysahead on seasonal debut was perfectly reasonable and promised a step forward next time. However, while that first to second run improvement has been a feature of Mullins' top class team this term, State Man was thumped by 31 lengths at the hooves of the same mare when they reacquainted in the Neville Hotels Hurdle (G1). Between the pair, a length and a quarter ahead of State Man, was 10-year-old (now 11) Winter Fog, sent off at 66/1; and only a length and a half behind State Man was 200/1 shot Fils d'Oudairies.

The winning time was good but not great, and that all leads to me being pretty suspicious of the merit of the winner's performance: like the race time, I feel it was good but not great. Could it have been very tacky ground that day, favouring those on the speed and perhaps conditions State Man hated? Or was State Man just bang out of sorts. It's a stretch to believe that both horses ran their races and the mare's winning margin extended by more than thirty lengths!

Obviously, if you take that form literally - and at least one extremely good judge and former multiple top jockey at the meeting is doing just that - then you'd have to think Brighterdaysahead wins the Champion Hurdle. She had a pacemaker there and the same horse, King Of Kingsfield, will do her donkey work again here. I wasn't overly impressed with her jumping that day and we've not seen her since - though that's fairly typical for Gordon Elliott to skip the Dublin Racing Festival, the obvious stepping stone between Christmas and Cheltenham.

State Man did win last time, at the DRF, where he beat Daddy Long Legs (who?) by six lengths after Lossiemouth paid for a poor jump at top speed when she and State Man were having at it from the get go. The winner was entitled to tire after his early exertions, and his score would be considered hugely inefficient in sectional terms; still, sometimes you gotta win ugly if you wanna win (and sometimes you gotta write ugly if you wanna entertain - yuk). The victory did little for the winner's Champion Hurdle prospects bar knock a rival out of the reckoning and perhaps restore a touch of his shattered confidence. He's not been the same Man this season.

It's high time we introduced the top billing, Constitution Hill. Forced to miss last year's Blue Riband due to the ailment that struck the Seven Barrows yard of trainer Nicky Henderson, he's back and bouncing again this term. There's been plenty of chat about how he's 'better than ever', a claim which is both highly likely untrue and also completely moot. His form in winning four times, three of them Grade 1's, since his 2023 Champion Hurdle success has been at a notably lower - in the order of ten to 15 pounds - level. And yet it's still better than Brighterdaysahead's, barring that one 'too good to be true?' run.

Henderson's record in the race is peerless: his nine wins bests Willie's five, with Elliott yet to register. Moreover, Henderson had won four of the seven renewals between Annie Power's 2016 triumph and State Man's last year for the Closutton squad - a race in which the Brit had the clear favourite before his withdrawal.

This season Constitution Hill ran Lossiemouth off her legs early in Kempton's G1 Christmas Hurdle before that mare battled on gamely to go down by only two and a half lengths; and he then showed up for the G2 International Hurdle on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham. That was essentially a regulation canter but proved his wellbeing, a sentiment affirmed by an excellent public workout at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. The 'vibes' then are strong with this one.

Burdett Road has been nine lengths behind Constitution Hill (bad blunder at the second last stopped him being a little closer) and was apparently outstayed by Golden Ace in the Kingwell last time. That mare, herself a Cheltenham Festival winner twelve months ago when beating Brighterdaysahead no less in a muddling Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle, will need to travel at a much quicker tempo this time - but she's at least showing better form as the spring arrives. Her greater proven stamina ought to see her finish in front of Burdett Road again.

The rest are very unlikely to be good enough and any of them winning would be one of the shocks of all time at the Festival.

Champion Hurdle Recent Winners

Champion Hurdle Pace Projection

A slightly misleading pace map as King Of Kingsfield is expected to push the pace for ownermate Brighterdaysahead. Burdett Road is a customary forward goer, too.

Champion Hurdle Selection

A small field race between classy but largely exposed horses does not generally a value proposition make. This comes down to how highly you rate the performance of Brighterdaysahead in battering several of her Champion Hurdle rivals, notably State Man, in that Christmas Grade 1 at Leopardstown. Anything like a literal interpretation means she's the play for you. But she's not the play for me, except with Tote's generous 'money back as a free bet if second' offer. I can't have State Man on his form this season and will consider it one of Willie's finest achievements if he can pull this rabbit out of the hat.

No, it's Constitution Hill for me. I respect the mare, especially in receipt of 7lb (a concession I don't particularly respect in G1's), but I want to see the former heavyweight champion reclaim his belt. Betting wise he's not my sort of price but I have included him in a few 'muggy' accas.

Suggestion: Bet Brighterdaysahead with the tote 'money back as free bet if second' concession. I don't think she'll beat Constitution Hill, but if I've underestimated that demolition job last time then she looks just about a free hit against Constitution Hill. Call it an emotional hedge if you like: my heart is all in on Connie.

Matt's Tix Pix: Bank on Connie

Check out Tix here >

 

**

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Tombs.

The Hallgarten & Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, to you and me) is a tough race for juveniles, usually completely different from anything they’ve contested before.

One of the key attributes is experience. Whilst experience in lots of hurdles race helps, it can also show your hand to the handicapper. In France there is a three-year-old season in the spring and horses benefit from experience over time there. They learn at home as well as at the track and the early start horses get in France can be a big advantage.

Horses that began in National Hunt races in France are 8/88 for +59 (66% ROI).

Murcia has a good profile, then, having begun in France more than a year ago and racing four times by early June, after which she was sold to join Willie Mullins.

Her first run for Willie was in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown at Christmas where she bombed out, beaten 22l in 8th. However, Jeff Kidder (2021 Fred Winter winner) was last of seven, and Aramax (2020 winner) was well beaten when falling in that Grade 2.

Juveniles, even more so than older novices, can improve hugely through the season - or regress as they develop physically.  It’s always as well to be cautious about form in the autumn and at Christmas, as it often gets reversed come the spring.

Not many Festival handicaps have a key trial as the conditions races often do.  However, there is a rated hurdle at Naas in February which was run for the first time in 2017 and is building up a strong profile as a springboard for Fred Winter winners.

The previous eight renewals of the Naas race have produced four Fred Winter winners, three of which were doing the double. Overall, runners from it are 4/17 +26 (153% ROI), with 3 of the 13 losers placed. In addition, Lark In The Mornin was declared at Naas last year but became a non-runner on the day, before winning the Fred Winter. This very much looks the race used by top Irish yards to prep for the Fred Winter.

This year Murcia looked green and her jumping was novicey but she finished really strongly to be beaten just a neck. She will have to be much more professional if she is to cope with the hurly-burly of a 22-runner juvenile handicap where they tend to go a strong gallop for the quality of the race. There’s the risk that it’s all too much for her and she bombs out but the reward is that she is open to stacks of improvement if she can put it all together – connections seem to think she’ll love the drying ground.

Those four Naas runners won the Fred Winter off 125 (Jazzy Matty), 137 (Brazil), 138 (Aramax) & 139 (Band Of Outlaws). Murcia has a mark of 133 in Ireland and the BHA handicapper has added 3lb so she’ll be running off 136, very similar to three of the previous winners from the Naas trial. 

Fred Winter Hurdle Recent Winners

Fred Winter Hurdle Pace Projection

Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!

Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle selection

Suggestion: Back Murcia at 10/1 or bigger (Matt Tombs)

Matt's Tix Pix: Five on A, and five more on B. At least!

Check out Tix here >

*

5.20 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)

Previewed by David Massey.

Well, it’s a new look for an old Festival favourite this year, with the National Hunt Chase now a 0-145 handicap and not restricted to amateur riders anymore. As such, trends are hardly worth bothering with, although a trainer that’s had a few placed in the race before - David Pipe - has one here that just about heads my list up.

Gericault Roque has the look of one laid out for this. It seems almost ridiculous that a horse that finished second to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima is still a novice, but here we are, seven runs later and no wins. But you can hardly argue with his form in big-field handicaps; second in a Mandarin, second in a Classic at Warwick, third in a Coral Gold Cup. It all stacks up.

He came back from a 26-month absence to run really well at Windsor 53 days ago. I was there on the day, my paddock notes reading “looks okay given the long absence, will come on but by no means unfit” and the way he ran in the race suggested those observations were close to the mark. He faded out of contention from two out but was far from disgraced in getting beaten less than ten lengths at the finish.

Wisely given time to recover from that run, he has the right profile for this and, with an extra place on offer, he looks a very solid each-way selection.

The winner of that Windsor race, Herakles Westwood, would be my back-up selection at the current prices. He’s always felt to me like a thorough stayer and, after the Windsor win, went to Newbury and confirmed that opinion by staying on all the way to the line over three miles, finishing third. I think a marathon distance could be right up his street, Harry Cobden in the saddle only  a positive. I’ll throw a few quid at the forecast as well, just in case that’s the piece of form that unlocks this puzzle.

As far as the Irish contingent go, the race that the market believes will throw up the winner is the beginners' chase at Navan in January, won by the classy Three Card Brag with Captain Cody finishing third and Now Is The Hour fourth. Both runners headed here are unexposed over fences and, for a horse that was a Grade 2 winner over the smaller obstacles, Now Is The Hour looks to have a very workable mark off 139, with similar comments applying to Captain Cody off 140 (also a Grade 2 hurdles winner) - but I’m not telling you anything the market isn’t. Both will have been readied for this, and I couldn’t put you off.

November winner Transmission is another obvious one, with Neil Mulholland booking Patrick Mullins again (you did know you don’t have to book an amateur didn’t you, Neil?) but again, the market has him well found.

National Hunt Chase Recent Winners

NB This race was a non-handicap before 2025.

National Hunt Chase Pace Projection

National Hunt Chase Selection

The more I look at the race the more I think Gericault Roque is pretty much nailed on to run a good race, and he's my main selection. I also think he’ll be well-backed on the day, going off single figures, so anything 10/1 and up looks worth taking.

Selection: Back Gericault Roque each way at 10/1

*

Those are the seven head scratchers on Day 1 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and how our assembled panel of experts see them. As with punting more generally, it's got to be fun first, profit second (the two not being mutually exclusive, of course); so if you've enjoyed the read, you're a winner already!

Stay lucky
Matt

2025 Cheltenham Festival Prep

/in , /by

The Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us. For some it's just another race meeting, for many it's a special week in the racing calendar, and for a few it's Christmas and birthday rolled into one. Wherever you fit on that spectrum there are things about betting on Cheltenham that are different and that you ought to know. Those extend to what we're doing here on geegeez.co.uk, so let me share the plan for next week...

Daily Festival Previews

We'll have daily previews through the week covering all of the seven races each day. I'm delighted to say that I've got a crack squad of racing thinkers and writers to help you comb the form. They are:

Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.

David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.

Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.

Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.

Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.

They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?

Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start each day this year, so don't oversleep!

What else?

As well as those daily previews, we've a dedicated Cheltenham zone which you can access here. There you'll find the latest news and updates about the horses, trainers and jockeys associated with the Festival; full trends analysis from Andy Newton across the four days and 28 races; and links to the races themselves.

Gold subscribers will have access to pace maps, full form, video replay links, and our profiling tools, Instant Expert and Profiler. You can grab a weekly ticket for just £15 here.

Offers Galore

There will be offers galore throughout the week and one of the best chances to come out in front at the Cheltenham Festival is to press up any and all for which you're eligible. One of the very best that I'm aware of at this stage is Tote's 'Money Back as a Free Bet if Second' on all 28 races. So, for example, you could bet Kopek Des Bordes in the Supreme and get your stake reloaded if one horse beats him; or Brighterdaysahead in the Champion Hurdle and get a free bet if Constitution Hill does Constitution Hill things.

Obviously there will be races where your pick is neither first nor second, but this offer is one I'll be playing in almost all of the non-handicaps at least.

Geegeez' sister site, Tix, is a partner of Tote and I'm happy to mention their great deals for customers. If you don't yet have a tote account you can get one here. Then you'll be able to a) get their 'new account' goodness, b) play Tix and c) avail of the offer above.

N.B. You need to opt in to this offer which you can do from the 'Promotions' tab on tote's website.

 

 

Elsewhere, bet365 will have daily Super Boosts - one horse they think they can get beaten and on which they are prepared to offer a tempting price.

William Hill are offering players a free bet (stake varies) to use on Day 1.

And I expect all bookmakers to have something for at least some customers before Tuesday's action gets underway - so keep your eyes peeled.

Quick disclaimer: obviously, you need to read the terms and conditions for any offer you're wanting to avail of. Make sure to opt in where required, and only bet what you'd otherwise burn on beer, coffee or something else frivolous.

Daily Tix Competition: Win £100 each day!

If you're new around here, you may not know about Tix, a brilliant piece of tote multi-race software, I co-created. It basically allows for smarter perms on wagers such as the placepot, jackpot, Scoop 6, quadpot, and placepot 7. The short video below explains how it works:

 

 

We've teamed up with tote to offer a daily Tix competition across the four days of Cheltenham. You'll be entered when you place any Cheltenham multi-race bet through the Tix app, and there's £100 in cash each day to the player with the highest stake to return ratio.

What is a stake to return ratio? Well, it's basically the ticket odds, and it's a way of making the competition equally accessible to smaller and larger staking players.

Here are a couple of examples to illustrate how it will work:

Example 1: Ticket cost £1.20, ticket payout (return) £42.50

Stake to return ratio is 42.5/1.2 = 35.42

Example 2: Ticket cost £10, ticket payout (return) £180

Stake to return ratio is 180/10 = 18

In these scenarios, Example 2 returns more actual cash (£180 vs £42.50), and a bigger actual profit (£170 vs £41.30), than Example 1.

But Example 1 has the higher stake to return ratio (35.42 vs 18) and would therefore win the competition if these were the two entries.

A couple of rules.

  1. In the event of a tie, the prize will be shared between all tied players. There are no tie breaker provisos.
  2. Only bets placed via Tix on Cheltenham multi-race pools (placepot, jackpot, quadpot, Scoop6, placepot 7) will count.
  3. The judge's (my) decision is final - I'm sure it won't come to that.
  4. Prizes will be credited to winners' accounts on the morning following racing, e.g. Wednesday morning for Tuesday's winner(s).

What now?

Already on site, in our Cheltenham Festival Zone, are daily trends for all four days; some preview night notes and a further trends deep dive into the Gold Cup; a glut of latest news; and links to the 28 races. If you're a Gold or Lite subscriber, those races will have extra detail such as recent winners, pace maps, and form profiles. You can get Gold (or Lite) here.

I can't wait to get started!

Matt

Looking at Past Cheltenham Festival Trends

/in , /by

As I am penning this piece, the excitement for the upcoming Cheltenham Festival has gone up a further notch with the big days less than a week away, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will analyse some past Cheltenham race trends. Here on geegeez.co.uk we get specific race trends shared all year round with all the big races covered by Andy Newton. The Cheltenham Festival trends are available already for each day and can be accessed here.

Introduction

From 2007 to 2013 I wrote a weekly column on big race trends in the Racing & Football Outlook and over time got an excellent feel for which races suited past trends. Past race trends can be very good indicators of how a future race is likely pan out, and this is usually the case with the Cheltenham Festival. Many people use trends to help narrow down the field making the eventual selection process less daunting. If we can reasonably confidently eliminate say 50% of the field, then it drastically increases our chances of success. Obviously, there will be times when the race trends are ‘bucked’ where the winner does not fit the typical winner’s profile, but fortunately for many Cheltenham races this happens quite rarely.

For the main part of this piece, I will examine the last 20 renewals of the Gold Cup. I am going to first examine the ten Gold Cups held between 2005 and 2014 and then compare those findings with the Gold Cups from 2015 to 2024. After this I will be in a position to hopefully pick out the very strongest trends. I will also highlight some of the strongest trends from three other races at the meeting at the backend of the article.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

So let's look at the blue riband race, the Gold Cup. From 2005 to 2014 these were the most powerful trends:

2005-2014 Gold Cup Trends

Market Factors: 2005-14

5 winning favourites from 10.

9 out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.

Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced 9 winners from 36 runners (25%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced one winner from 107 (0.9%).

 

Last Race Factors: 2005-14

7 of the 10 winners won last time out (LTO). Those seven winners came from 44 qualifiers (15.9%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided three winners from 99 (3%).

All of the 10 winners came from one of three tracks – Leopardstown, Newbury or Kempton. This equates to 10 wins from 65 (15.4%). Other courses combined were 0/78 (0%).

All of the 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 103 runners (9.7%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 40 (0%).

Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced seven winners from 47 (14.9%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower were three wins from 96 (3.1%).

 

Other Factors: 2005-14

Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 37 (13.5%). Those with no previous Festival win were 5/106 (SR 4.7%).

Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced seven winners from 37 (18.9%); those rated 165 or less were 3/96 (3.1%).

In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 40 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7, 8 or 9.

Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced eight wins from 83 qualifiers (9.6%). Horses that had not scored that season won 2/60 (3.3%).

 

Conclusion: 2005-14

During this ten-year time frame, the Gold Cup was dominated by the front end of the betting market. 2014 was the outlier with a 20/1 winner in Lord Windermere and placed runners at 16/1 and 14/1. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+. All the winners came from either Kempton, Newbury or Leopardstown and all the winners were priced 8/1 or shorter on their previous start.

It was also preferable to have raced in Grade 1 company LTO, to have previously won at the Festival and to have won that season. In terms of age, it was best to avoid horses aged 10 or older.

 

*

 

Let's now compare the data from 2005 to 2014 with that for the most recent ten-year period, 2015-2024.

2015-2024 Gold Cup Trends

Market Factors: 2015-24

5 winning favourites from 10.

Seven out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting (nine came from the top four).

Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced eight winners from 40 runners (20%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced two winners from 88 (2.3%).

 

Last Race Factors: 2015-24

Eight of the 10 winners won LTO. Those eight winners came from 59 qualifiers (13.6%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided two winners from 69 (2.9%).

Five of the 10 winners raced at Leopardstown LTO from 42 qualifiers (11.9%); Newbury LTO produced two winners from 10 (20%). Kempton LTO runners produced 0 winners from 16 (0%). All other courses combined were three wins from 60 (5%).

All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/3 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 63 runners (15.9%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 65 (0%).

Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced five winners from 65 (7.7%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower had five wins from 63 (7.9%).

 

Othere Factors: 2015-24

Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 42 (11.9%). Those with no previous Festival win have scored five times from 86 (SR 5.8%).

Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced eight winners from 65 (12.3%); those rated 165 or less were two from 63 (3.2%).

In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 22 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7 or 8.

Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced all ten wins from 90 qualifiers (11.1%). Horses that had not previously won that season won 0 from 38 (0%).

 

Conclusion: 2015-2024

During this ten-year time frame, this race was once again dominated by the front end of the betting market. Five wins for favourites and nine of the ten winners were priced 8/1 or shorter at SP. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+, while a run at Leopardstown or Newbury LTO could be seen as a positive.

Previous Festival winners comfortably outperformed non Festival winners, while a win that season was paramount with all ten winners having that stat. An even stronger positive stat was horses priced 100/30 or less LTO as they produced all the winners from roughly 50% of the runners. Less horses aged 10yo+ took part during this time frame but once again they drew a blank.

 

*

 

The Gold Cup Comparison

Overall, the vast majority of the key trends from 2005 to 2014 were seen again between 2015 and 2024. The race has been strongly dominated by the more fancied runners. That includes ten winning favourites during the past 20 years, and backing all favourites would have yielded a profit to SP of £14.12 (ROI +70.6%).

Below is a graph mapping the market rank of all 20 winners:

 

 

This is a neat way of illustrating the front end of market dominance. 18 of the 20 winners have come from the top four in the betting so it looks best to concentrate there.

15 of the last 20 winners won LTO – this is a strong positive that has ‘held’ during both ten-year periods. Essentially, a LTO winner has been five times more likely to win the Gold Cup than a horse that failed to win LTO. The graph below shows the A/E indices for different LTO positions:

 

 

These indices are another indication as to why a last day win before the Gold Cup has been a strong positive.

Sticking with last time out factors, all 20 winners were 8/1 or shorter on their most recent start with the last ten being 100/30 or shorter. Horses priced LTO 17/2 or bigger are 0 from 55. Now it is important to note that the vast majority of these 55 losers were decent prices come the big day, but only three of the 55 placed so if we are looking for a big priced placer, which can happen, the trends suggest that we should steer clear of this subset.

A previous Festival win has been a positive in both time frames. Overall, a previous Festival winner has been 2.4 times more likely to prevail in the Gold Cup when compared with runners who had not previously won at the Festival.

Based on the success of the top end of the betting markets it should come as no surprise that higher rated horses have been the most successful. An OR of 166 or more has produced 15 of the winners – this equates to 75% of the winners coming from around 38% of the total runners.

The age dynamic in terms of older horses (those aged 10 or older) has remained constant with these runners failing to register a win since Cool Dawn in 1998. In terms of horses aged nine or younger the last ten years has seen a slight switch with 7 and 8yos winning nine of the renewals.

A previous win that season was a positive in both time frames and that should be something to look out for again this year.

There are, however, a couple of 2005-2014 trends that did not repeat between 2015 and 2024. The first is those horses that raced in a Grade 1 event LTO. In the first ten years it seemed a strong positive if a horse ran in the highest class possible LTO. During that spell, they were roughly five times more likely to win than horses that raced in a Grade 2 or lower LTO. Fast forward to the latest ten-year period and there has been parity between both groups with no edge to horses that raced in a Grade 1 contest LTO.

The second pattern that did not repeat was the LTO Kempton one. This was a positive from 2005-2014, but actually since 2012 no LTO Kempton runner has gone on to win the Gold Cup. This is partly due to the fact that most runners in the past have come from the Boxing Day meeting at Kempton straight to the Festival. Nowadays more horses seem to fit in another run between these two big meetings.

One area I have yet to look at in terms of this race is trainers, and specifically Irish trainers versus British trainers. I will fix that now!

From 2005 to 2014, just 15.5% of the runners in the Gold Cup were trained in Ireland. In contrast, from 2015 to 2024 this has increased to 48.4%. The Irish trainers have dominantly outperformed British trainers over both time frames in terms of overall win rate. The graph below illustrates this:

 

 

Irish trainers have maintained their strike rate and with far more runners in the 2015–2024-time frame, it means they have provided the winner eight times in the last ten years (and all of the last six). British trainers have really struggled in recent years.

Splitting the data into two ten-year time frames for this race has shown that this is a race where many of the strong past trends remain the same. Generally, Grade 1 races for experienced horses are good races from a past trends perspective. However, as we have seen there has been a change in a couple of the trends highlighted between the two decades. As punters we need to be aware that this can happen and obviously react accordingly. Patterns change over time but the Gold Cup retains some very solid looking patterns which for this year’s renewal should help to narrow down the field to a small group of the most likely winners.

 

**

 

I now want to pick out a few other races and highlight the very strongest past trends based on the last 20 years.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

This is the first race of the meeting, and the strongest trend is around LTO placing. Simply, we want to be looking for horses that won last time. They have provided 16 of the 20 winners from 145 runners for a break-even situation to SP (well a 48p profit to be precise). Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO have won 4 races from 173 runners for a loss of £108.50 (ROI -62.7%).

Not only that, we have had consistency in both 10-year groups with eight LTO winners from 2005-2014 and eight from 2015-2024. The win & placed (Each Way) percentages also strongly favour the LTO winners’ group. They have been over three times more likely to finish in the first three than horses that failed to win LTO.

Sticking with the win & placed theme, the graph below shows the consistency of performance of LTO winners when tackling the Supreme. I have grouped the LTO winners in five-year batches or groups to show their win & placed percentages in each period.

 

 

The percentages have not fluctuated much with most five-year groups around the 30% mark. Clearly, for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, we should be focusing our attention on LTO winners. Of course, a non-LTO winner may be successful this year as was the case last year, when Slade Steel won the race. However, the LTO 1st stats/trends are strongly in our favour.

 

Champion Hurdle

The Champion hurdle is the highlight of the first day and one recent trend that stands out is concerned with unbeaten horses that season. All of the last ten winners fitted that profile, and there were only 18 horses that qualified under that rule going back to 2015. This equates to a 55.6%-win strike rate. In the previous ten years there were also 18 qualifiers, but only three won. Having said that, from 2005 to 2014 horses unbeaten in that season were still three times more likely to win compared to horses that had lost at least once in the season.

As with the Supreme, last day winners are far more likely to win than those that failed to win LTO, amassing 17 successes from 101 runners (16.8%), and an A/E index 1.01 for LTO winners, compared to 3 wins from 134 (2.2%), A/E 0.45 for non-winners. In terms of the ten-year splits, 2005-2014 saw seven wins for LTO winners, 2015-2004 saw all ten wins.

 

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

This staying novice event is run on Gold Cup day and has one trend that has shifted dramatically in the last ten years. Let us look at the last 20 winners and their SPs:

 

 

The table neatly shows the difference between the ten years from 2005 to 2014 and those from 2015 to 2024 when it comes to the winning SPs. In the first ten-year period (lower half of the table) eight of the ten winners were priced in single figures with four favourites prevailing. In the most recent ten-year period nine of the ten winners were double figure prices and no favourite won.

The profit and loss figures for single figure priced runners during the two-time frames could not be more contrasting:

 

 

This type of switch-up reminds us once more that patterns and trends can change and that we cannot solely put our faith in all trends from past races. As punters we need to be aware that many trends will remain constant while a handful will not. Being able to adapt is part of what helps to make a punter successful over time.

Also, we are dealing with a smallish number of past races which again can seem to make trends fluctuate from time to time, whereas sometimes it was simply that the pattern was coincidence in the first place: we need to use skill and judgement to decide what is a trend and what is an accident of fate. Looking for reasons to justify a trend is a very good starting point in that regard.

- DR

London Racing Club Cheltenham Preview Night 2025 Notes

/in , /by

In front of a full house of keen racing fans, London Racing Club's brains trust assembled.

They were Lydia Hislop (LH), Matt Tombs (MT), Jamie Benson (JB), and maintaining order, Lee Mottershead (LM).

What follows are the notes I managed to make from their thoughts.

Tuesday

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

  • LH: Kopek des Bordes (KdB) will have to replicate his last race form. Bit edgy, and Supreme a test of temperament. By far the best horse in the field on what we've seen. Karbau is talented, each way or without favourite.

  • MT: KdB at DRF was a 'wow' race but a little worried about the preliminaries at Cheltenham. Won’t shorten much in the minutes before the race so that’s the time to bet him. Workahead e/w: Don't know his level of form but his last race has worked out, he did it well and is unexposed.

  • JB: At the prices want to take on KdB.  Workahead Christmas form looks strong.

Arkle

  • MT: Majborough "most likely winner of the week." Might be a very small field.
  • JB: Maj looks "bar a fall."
  • LH: Maj very likely winner. L'Eau de Sud opposable. Second best form is Touch Me Not if he runs here. Would quite like to see Only By Night in here, too.

Mares' Hurdle

  • MT: "My source has been backing Lossiemouth for Mares ante post". But what sort of form is she in after that fall last time? If she doesn't run, I'm against Jade de Grugy. Instead, split stakes between Golden Ace (Kingwell form is good) and Kala Conti. They went quickly last time, and KC, close to the pace, hung tough conceding weight to July Flower.
  • LH: Lossie is miles clear on form. JdG is a player. KC ran great against the pace at DRF and is perhaps the value.

Champion Hurdle

  • LH: Brilliant race prospect. Constitution Hill cannot be "better than ever", but his near best might be enough. Brighterdaysahead will be a tough challenger, might drift on the day, and she’s backable if she does.
  • JB: Constitution Hill is "your absolute made in a test tube" Champion Hurdler. Price would dictate whether CH or BDA is the bet.
  • MT: Believe Nicky Henderson will have left plenty to work on and expect CH to improve notably. The "vibes" feels like he's back close to his best. You can have close to Evens and that might look a very big price teatime on Tuesday.

"Shoulder Races"

  • JB: Fred Winter - Outforastroll/Holy See race is high-class form, interesting; Murcia also interesting here. Ultima - Farouk d'Alene (100/1 shot), small throwaway bet. NH Chase - Will Do weighted to go well and this should suit.
  • LH: Ultima - Farouk d'Alene does have latent ability, but Whistle Stop Tour from Lucinda Russell factory. Novice, strong stayer, form solid. No view in Fred Winter but like Gericault Roque in the NH Chase.

Wednesday

Turners Novices' Hurdle

  • MT: Turn of foot usually needed rather than stamina, but theory might not hold up this year. Potters Charm form may not be strong enough. Suspect Final Demand might gun forward. Think Irish form is stronger than the British. The New Lion form might be overrated. Perhaps The Yellow Clay is the one: felt he quickened and then got tired at Naas last time.
  • LH: Really like Final Demand, but a quick ground steadily run Turners might not suit ideally. Good stayer. In steadily run race, TNL a better option but TYC is a value play against both.
  • JB: TYC pick of top three, but James's Gate, rated 135, would normally be exploited by Martin Brassil in a handicap. Bit of a tip perhaps.

Brown Advisory

  • JB: Taking on Ballyburn and Dancing City with Croke Park. Dual Grade 1 winner, outpaced over 2m5f last time.
  • MT: Don’t think Ballyburn will stay, he's opposable - DC very likeable but might be vulnerable to a better turn of foot. Betterdaysahead will be annoying if he wins. At big prices, Gorgeous Tom is interesting, as to a lesser degree is Asian Master stepping up a mile in trip.
  • LH: On instinct, thought Ballyburn might be a very good 3-miler. Ground might not be that testing and Wednesday likely to be quickest turf. Poor value but likely winner. Elsewhere, Betterdaysahead is a proper stayer. Can see Gorgeous Tom argument.

Queen Mother Champion Chase (QMCC)

  • MT: Jonbon good enough to win a CC but overall not sure. Feel he’s 3 or 4lb less good at Cheltenham. Deep enough race - Gaelic Warrior, Marine Nationale, Energumene, Solness. Last named is fascinating, could be "this year’s Flooring Porter". Was going quick at DRF and quickened again when MN came to him. Against MN. 40/1 NRNB Qulixios thumped MN first time up this season; if he turns up he's got a win chance, never mind e/w.
  • LH: Jonbon is at his absolute peak this season. I don't buy the theory that he needs to go right-handed; rather, I feel that's a function of most of the British two-mile Grade 1's being run on right-handed tracks. So it's coincidence. His Cheltenham runs can all be excused: too aggressively ridden vs. Constitution Hill in the Supreme; beaten by an on-song El Fabiolo in Arkle (but he’s gone on from his novice form and El Fab hasn’t); seasonal debuts for Shloer so unlikely at peak (though his 2023 win is not far off his upper efforts); and in a holding pattern when a nervier type than he is now in rerouted 2024 Clarence House when also ridden sub-optimally by new rider. Lots of shorties have been beaten in the Champion Chase and I don't really want to bet him (or lay him!) Gaelic Warrior might have an issue in his throat (rumour) but would need it wet anyway. Found A Fifty might be overpriced. Suited to quickish ground. Energumene might be a backable price on the day with so many naysayers on the circuit.
  • JB: MN looks reasonable on his Supreme win. Blood Destiny crying out for a fast run two mile race.

Cross Country Chase

  • MT: Believe top weights will continue to dominate as they did when the race was a limited handicap previously. Galvin looks a fantastic bet. "Feel he should almost be an even money job"!

"Shoulders"

  • LH: Touch Me Not - Grand Annual.
  • JB: The Other Mozzie - Grand Annual. Bet of the Day is Colonel Mustard at 33/1 in Coral Cup.

Thursday

Ryanair Chase

  • LH: Il Est Francais will take them along, Protektorat in second, but it's a deeper race this year than last when Protek won.
  • MT: Could make a case for Djelo.

Stayers' Hurdle

  • JB: Most vulnerable favourite of the shorties is Teahupoo. Ga Law could run well at a massive price.
  • LH: It's become trendy to knock Teahupoo. Might end up a fair price. Expecting ground to be softer than predicted (watering).
  • MT: Traditionally a Teahupoo fan. But got a bit twitchy since. If he drifts, he might be a bet, but he’s short enough at the moment. Lucky Place is an improving 6yo with form that has worked out well. Just about the only progressive horse in the race. Looks very solid e/w.

"Shoulders"

  • JB: Nine Graces, Kim Muir - "Bet of the Day." Idem in the Pertemps worth a look.
  • MT: FeetofaDancer in Pertemps has a similar look to Paul Nolan's winner, Mrs Milner.
  • LH: Git Maker and Aworkinprogress interesting wherever they run. Galileo Dame in the Dawn Run if she goes there. Also Air Of Entitlement in that race might be ovoerpriced.

Friday

Gold Cup

  • LH: Galopin Des Champs just wins, doesn't he? Can win off any pace, on any ground. Monty's Star has upside: improved from a moderate start to season and given an end-to-end gallop he’s interesting. Don’t think Banbridge will stay.
  • MT: Think GDC will win, really hope he wins. But if there’s one horse who might do him for speed, it’s Banbridge, who definitely has a squeak. Want GDC to have a race rather than a procession. If Monty's shortens in the betting, that could be noteworthy e/w.

Triumph Hurdle

  • JB: East India Dock is hard to oppose. Nicky Henderson saying Palladium and Lulamba are tough to separate. So Palladium might be value. Slight worry that EID may not find enough up the hill.
  • MT: EID is miles the best horse on form and is overpriced even at 2/1. But how good are the Irish juveniles? 9 of the last 12 Triumph winners came from Dublin Racing Festival Spring Juvenile, only three won there. From that race, Hello Neighbour is 5/1, Galileo Dame 16/1 but there's not that much between them.
  • LH: "Palladium jumps like an entire!" EID has by far the best form and should be shorter.

Albert Bartlett

  • LH: Not got handle on this race. Wingmen seems fairly solid. TYC credible if he came here.
  • JB: Wingmen been crying out for a lead and this is exactly the sort of race he wants.
  • MT: Jet Blue won the best UK trial. Could drift and would be backable if he did. Argento Boy is a "now" horse. Has been a bit clueless but won easily last time in a nothing race. Paul Townend could pick this lad over Jasmin de Vaux.

"Shoulders"

  • JB: Woodhooh- Martin Pipe, happy Kopek de Mee goes here because he makes the price on anything else you fancy! Kargese - County, needs faster pace, which she’ll get here. Dangerous off 145.
  • LH: Strong on Kargese in County.
  • MT: Really like Woodhooh. Also Lark In The Mornin in County. Ryehill (Hunter Chase) is a big horse, makes mistakes but has bundles of talent.

NAPS / CHARITY BETS

  • JB: E/W Colonel Mustard - Coral Cup
  • LH: Whistle Stop Tour - Ultima
  • LM: Absurde - County
  • MT: Galvin - Cross Country

Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Four Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Four Preview, Tips

It's been a weird, and occasionally unsatisfying, week with the abandonment of the Cross Country Chase and the lamentable early showings - and subsequent withdrawals - of Nicky Henderson's star players. But here we are, three down one to go and buoyed for a crack at the Foxhunters Gold Cup. If you're behind at this point, the good news is there is still time; the bad news is this is 'Give Back Friday'...

1.30 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Although Nicky has had to pull most of his star players, he does - at time of writing, Wednesday morning - still plan to run Sir Gino, strong Triumph Hurdle favourite heretofore but now drifting like The Drifters aboard the Kon-Tiki. Let's consider his form credentials before getting bogged down in the health of the yard. Unbeaten in three, Sir Gino was considered smart enough to debut in a Listed contest at Auteuil. Sent off at bigger than 20/1 on the Paris nanny, he scored by a bit less than two lengths.

Subsequently transferred to Seven Barrows, the first thing they did was give him a wind op (well, it probably wasn't the first thing, but you know what I mean). His breathing facilitated, he scooted up by half the track in a decent Kempton Introductory Hurdle; and he then buried the Burdett Road dream by bashing that one ten lengths in a Grade 2 on the Old course here. His form is miles clear of the rest of the home team, but that bug in the Henderson yard makes it very difficult to accept a shortish price.

That's all the more true when you see what Willie's bringing to the party. Perhaps Majborough will be the pick of his, perhaps he won't; but in time he very well might be, according to 'the vibes'. In any case, his close soft ground third to stablemate Kargese in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle on first start for over a year - he'd run as a three-year-old at Auteuil on 2nd April 2023 - was expected to blow away the cobwebs and it surely did.

Willie ran five in that race, Majborough only third choice in the betting, and the two ahead of him in the market filled the first two slots home. They were led by second favourite that day, Kargese, who looks a smart filly. Always prominent, she wasn't always fluent, but ran on well in a first time hood. She'll keep that pacifier on here and will again take on Majborough and the second from the Spring, Storm Heart. This ex-French flat horse won a maiden by 22 lengths before his G1 second, and he too retains plenty of upside. It is noteworthy that he's the choice of Paul Townend.

Willie ran five in the Spring Juvenile, and he saddles - wait, let me count them - sEvEn here! Seven. Out of the 14. I mean, what? As with the bumper, there's a chance he doesn't know the pecking order; but unlike the bumper, he's won this with his first string three times in the last four years. That points to Majborough in spite of having to turn the tables with both Kargese and Storm Heart. He's clearly held in high regard.

A quick whizz through the other four Willies - Bunting was fourth in the Spring Juvenile, only a bit more than two lengths behind the winner, and is another who on form could come out in front this time; Ethical Diamond was sixth there, and has five lengths to find - still not impossible; and High Wind was eighth at Leopardstown and ostensibly has plenty on to get past any of the aforementioned Mullins mob.

Meanwhile, Salvator Mundi hasn't run for eleven months since claiming argent at Auteuil in another Listed race. But here's the thing: he was second to none other than Sir Gino! The pair of them pulled ten clear of the third placed horse and, while Sir Gino, was value for a little more than 1 3/4 length margin, that obviously still makes Salvator Mundi 'live' in here if he's fit after that long layoff.

Nurburgring is quite battle hardened but I'm not sure his form with Kala Conti is quite as strong as some of the Closutton collective, or that he has the upside of them.

Back in Blighty, Salver has been winning and winning. He served up (geddit?!) in the G2 Finale at Chepstow having already won his two prior hurdles in lower class; then he won the Victor Ludorum at Haydock. A feature of his most recent brace of scores was very wet underfoot, so conditions ought not to be a concern - whether he's as good as the Irish and/or Sir Gino remains a concern!

I'm struggling to make cases for the rest, though Peking Opera was a very good flat horse and Ithaca's Arrow ploughed through the Newbury mud last time (he also ploughed through quite a few of the hurdles). Fratas has been off for a long time. And I backed Mighty Bandit a long time ago at a shorter price than he is now. He's moved from Elliott to Greatrex and has a clunk last time on his scorecard, though he was clearly wrong that day. He's a lot harder to fancy for that water under the bridge since my guessy ante post voucher, but he did look very good on his first hurdling start.

Triumph Hurdle Pace Map

Bound to be pacey early, with something from the Willie phalanx locking horns most probably with Salver and perhaps Fratas.

Triumph Hurdle Selection

Very tricky in light of the issues surrounding the jolly. He can't possibly be a bet as things stand, which makes punting a guess up. Paul Townend has ridden the three recent Mullins winners, but Mark Walsh is retained by JP McManus for Majborough. Townend rides Storm Heart and that one could be a bit of each way value in a race where there's not a lot between many of them. I'd love to see Salver win.

Suggestion: Try Storm Heart each way at 11/1 or so.

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2.10 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

I was a bit miffed when Dan Skelton (handicap genius or barefaced cheat – you decide) said he was going to miss the County Hurdle with 2023 winner Faivoir as I’d availed myself of some 28/1 ante-post on the basis of his eye-catching run in the Betfair Hurdle when fifth behind Iberico Lord. Stablemate L’Eau du Sud was runner-up that day and Skelton seemed adamant that the latter would carry his hopes in the County.

I was even more miffed when, hoping to cash in, I napped Faivoir in the Imperial Cup only to see him beaten a nose by Go Dante. He’s clearly well handicapped, and Skelton has decided to let him run again. I thought initially that this sounded like a bad-beat declaration, but my friend Mr Massey mentioned the stable’s record when turning runners out quickly in handicaps. Naturally, I headed over to geegeez.co.uk (pint please, Matt) to double check.

True enough, Skelton’s record with quick turnarounds is excellent with two wins and a second in the last two years from just seven runners, including Heltenham’s 17/2 score at Newbury recently. Looking back further his figures are even better for hurdlers alone with five winners from 12 runners turned out less than a week from a previous start. That’s enough to make Faivoir interesting again even if he did have a hard race at Sandown and presumably he won’t run if there are signs he’s not fully recovered.

L’Eau du Sud ran a stormer in the Betfair and while the form was let down by the winner in the Champion Hurdle, I think we all know that the Henderson lurgy was responsible for that, and ditto Betfair fourth Doddiethegreat’s late capitulation in the Coral Cup. The form of that race is clearly strong, as it always is, and the only negative about L’Eau du Sud is the price, with every man and his dog having hitched on to the Skelton bandwagon.

The other good trial for this race is the 2m Listed handicap hurdle at the DRF which this year was won by Lord Erskine from Magical Zoe and Zenta with a number of horses taken out of the race in what we affectionately refer to as a “shemozzle” at the penultimate flight. One of those brought down was Bialystock, who was travelling well and improving on the inner at the time. I think that trio are all of interest, and while a 7lb rise for the first two seems a little harsh at first glance, Bialystock is only 1lb higher and that also makes him of interest here.

Both Zenta and Magical Zoe were relatively handily placed off the turn, and out of trouble wide on the track, but it’s possible that both went slightly too early as 50/1 winner Lord Erskine was produced very late to swamp them from the final hurdle. One can knock the form because of the odds of the winner, but I think it’s very solid and Lord Erskine came in for a really well judged ride, finding the best of the ground wide on the track and delaying his challenge until late.

In short, there is nothing between Magical Zoe and Zenta on Leopardstown form and the pair can be expected to play a big part in the finish if held on to for slightly longer, while Bialystock is weighted to beat them if you take the view that he would have finished off as strongly as he travelled there. On that point, Ruby Walsh feels that Bialystock needs a fairly sharp 2m to show his best given he’s very speedy and was concerned about the stiff 2m1f here when I mentioned Bialystock as a County possibility. That’s a warning worth heeding but he still merits his place on the list.

Of the others King of Kingsfield and Absurde were third and fourth behind Ballyburn and Slade Steel and are of obvious interest dropping into a handicap from that Grade 1 contest which has thrown up two impressive winners in the big novice hurdles this week. Both are worthy of consideration, but both are also well found already in the market.

County Hurdle Pace Map

Another almost guaranteed quick pace though it's not clear from where the early dash will emerge. Aucunrisque looks a likely but Westport Cove is the only other to have led in its most recent three spins. A handful of others led four back. I still reckon it'll be quick but could be wrong as I don't know who goes on!

County Hurdle Selection

In terms of the final call, price will be crucial, and the favourite is a tad short now for all he could ease on the day. Faivoir is 16/1 in a couple of places which is very fair given the stats quoted above and his attractive mark, while even Ruby’s words don’t completely put me off Bialystock after his eye-catching run at Leopardstown.

Suggestion: Try Faivoir at 16/1 and/or Bialystock at 11/1 each way with as many extra places as you can find.

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2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.

All of the last 14 winners had their last run over 2m3f-3m 1/2f.

All of the last 14 winners had their last run in the previous 26-90 day period.

12 of the last 13 winners had finished top 3 last time out.

All of the last 12 winners with an official rating were rated 136+.

9 of the last 10 winners returned 11/1 or bigger.

12 of the last 13 winners had raced 7 or fewer times over hurdles.

12 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7yo.

11 of the last 14 winners had won at 2m4 1/2f+.

11 of the last 14 winners had their last start in Graded company (8 in a Grade 2).

10 of the last 14 winners were Irish Bred.

9 of the last 14 winners finished Top 3 in a Graded hurdle last time out.

8 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded hurdle previously.

4 of the last 14 winners returned 33/1 or bigger.

3 of the last 14 winners had raced 15 or more times in their career.

Willie Mullins had 22 straight losers between 2010-2016 but has now won 3 of the last 7.

8 of the last 12 winners had won an Irish PTP.

4 of the last 9 winners wore a tongue tie.

All 6 female runners have finished unplaced.

Only 1 of the last 13 winners had their last race in a handicap (27 such runners).

The sire Oscar has 2 wins and 3 places from 16 runners since the races inception.

The Grade 2 Lyons Of Limerick Jaguar Land Rover Novice Hurdle is a decent Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle trial given that the 2015, 2017 and 2021 Albert Bartlett winners had all taken part in the race prior to winning at Cheltenham, while Fury Road (third by a neck in the 2020 Albert Bartlett) had won that trial back in 2019. This Season's winner, Loughlynn, had looked a progressive horse prior to this win but has been pulled up since in a Grade 1 and gives the race a miss. The runner up at Limerick is here though and Gordon Elliott's 7yo STELLAR STORY looks just the type to go well in this.

A winning Irish pointer who is also a two time NH Flat winner, from three starts, he beat Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter on his third bumper start which is cracking form, that pair subsequently doing very well in Grade 1 company over hurdles and the former running third in Gallagher Novices' Hurdle on Wednesday. Stellar Story won first time up over hurdles this season and was then done for pace against a couple of speedier types in a Grade 2 at Navan over 2m4f at the start of December. He was then second in that Limerick Grade 2 Hurdle before staying on late in 4th in the big 2m6f Grade 1 Novice at the Leopardstown Festival a couple of weeks ago. I think he's crying out for this step up to 3 miles and the form of that NH flat race at Naas last February has worked out really well. He ticks all the boxes for Cheltenham, has form on soft ground and given the history of outsiders running well in this race I'm certainly not put off by his price. I like his chances a lot.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Quick, and attritional, as it usually is in 'the potato race'. Giggy may get jiggy on the lead, with some help from Wiggie Willie.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: Back STELLAR STORY 1pt EW at 25/1.

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Festival Trends

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3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. A Gold Cup shorn of one of its stars as Shishkin has succumbed to the mystery ailment afflicting Seven Barrows in recent days, but of course the show must go on. We still have the champ, Galopin Des Champs, back to defend a crown he acquired with a seven length beating of Bravemansgame twelve months ago.

Galopin was subsequently beaten not once but twice - either side of his seasonal break - by perrenial rival Fastorslow, before exacting revenge last time in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival. It is widely assumed that that finishing order will be maintained, but the market has arguably over-stated that. Regardless, GdC looks on top of his game and his top form is the best in the race. He's a logical and worthy favourite.

Fastorslow has a few less notches on his bedpost, and had something of a bridesmaid look having run up to Corach Rambler in the Ultima last term and also been second in the Coral Cup the year before. He's since, erm, 'got married' (note to self, don't start analogies that will go nowhere) twice in Grade 1 company before that reverse at the hands of Galopin. [*trying desperately to crowbar in the old joke: "I've got two wives, do you think that's bigamy?" "I think that's very big of you!" - there, I did it, apols also for that]

Getting back on track, Bravemansgame was just that one spot away from winning the Blue Riband a year ago, and he's having another crack now. Why wouldn't he? Since then, he's had more seconds than a minute, running up to Gentlemansgame, Royale Pagaille, and Hewick respectively. The most recent was in the King George and that, again, is top form, albeit in defeat. Soft ground would hold no fears though he's unproven on heavy bar a Listed bumper flop at Ascot way back in 2019; that shouldn't be over-factored.

Staying with Team GB, L'Homme Presse will surely be a different dude this time from the shadow of himself that showed up in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase: never put in the race that day (pocket talk, sigh) he finished well enough over a clearly inadequate trip. Lest we forget, he was the 2022 Brown Advisory winner and though I didn't like it at the time, that was a belting prep for this.

Most of Gerri Colombe's best form has been on a sounder surface - Grade 1 Mildmay, Grade 1 Scilly Isles - but he's also got G1 verdicts on soft and soft to heavy. He was duffed up by Galopin Des Champs at Christmas, beaten 23 lengths there, and we've not seen him since. That'd be a worry for me although he's obviously a very talented chap at his best.

And then there's the fairytale ownership story that is Hewick. Bought for £12.50 (or thereabouts), he's won a bet365 Gold Cup, a Galway Plate, an American Grand National, an Oaksey Chase, and a King George. And the Durham National! Wowzers. And he actually cost €850. Just incredible - good luck to those very, very, very lucky owners and the astonishing journey this horse has taken them on. But can he win a Gold Cup?

Well, the answer to can he win a Durham Nash was probably 'no', as it was to 'can he win xyz other big race?', so let's break with that errant tradition and say, yes, he can win a Gold Cup. Whether he will or not is another question entirely. He jumps well and he stays very well so those are great credentials, as is his obvious will to battle and win, but there is a rather large fly in the ointment. ALL of his best form is on quick ground. It will not be that here, "and so I'm out" (said in my most earnest Deborah Meaden voice).

Ground would be a small niggle for Corach Rambler, too. Yes, he won a four runner novice hurdle on heavy back yon, but he will have outclassed his rivals there; and yes, he won the Ultima on soft last season. I actually really like him as a 'running on' play - maybe a place lay to back, or some such - and if I can get four places I'm bound to back him for a little bit. Because he's actually very good. Two wins here in the Ultima and a Grand National triumph tell us that; and he's surely had his mark managed as far as possible hitherto this campaign with a view to a repeat National bid. Those shackles now off he'll bring his A game here.

I can't have any of the rest. Fishcake Monkfish has been fragile and largely absent since his brilliant novice chase season, failing to win in three starts since; it's tough to envisage that streak being broken on his fourth go, in the Gold Cup. Nassalam does love the mud - he blitzed them in the Welsh National on heavy - so if it was a really, really wet day he'd enter minor calculations. Former Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker has been missing since and isn't for me; and while I respect everything Henry de B runs at the Festival, even I'm having a hard time magicking a case for Jungle Boogie.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

Quite a tough one to call pace wise, with a feature of most of the runners being their run style versatility. Galopin Des Champs has led in small fields the last twice but might take a lead here, while the Games - Bravemans and Gentlemans - could also get an early call. Should be a good even gallop and may the best horse win.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection

It might be that Galopin Des Champs just wins or that, if he doesn't, Fastorslow does. I'll probably do that 'no brainer' exacta which will pay 5/1 or so. But I kind of like L'Homme Presse as a sleeper in the field and he'll be my each way play. Lower down, Corach Rambler will be running on and can hit the extended frame; and if it's very wet - it might be! - Nassalam could surprise a few.

Suggestion: Try a little on L'Homme Presse each way, and perhaps Corach Rambler (not too wet) or Nassalam (biblical rainfall) with as many places as you can get. But, obviously, no surprise whatsoever if the top of the market outclasses them.

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4.10 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk.

As ever I will begin with a look at a few general race trends:

Ten year-old’s have won six of the last ten renewals of the race – six winners from 47 runners +130.63, 12 placed with the A/E=1.86.

Nine of the last ten winners have been aged 10 or 11.

Favourites are three winners from ten runners -0.24, six placed. But five winners were returned between 16/1 & 66/1.

Eight of the last ten winners had won between 2m7f and 3m2½f.

There have been a number of repeat winners of this race, with Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder enjoying back-to-back successes since 2012.

To the form and the first thing you notice is the number of declared runners. This year’s renewal has attracted just a dozen hunters. 23 ran last year and the race average since 2008 is 22.75. Hopefully it’s a case of quality rather than quantity but I suppose it may also say a lot about the direction of travel of the hunter chase game.

I'll admit that if Matt hadn't asked me to preview the race, I probably wouldn't have given it much attention. However, I'm glad I did because despite the small field, I believe it could be an interesting contest.

Ferns Lock, Its On The Line, Premier Magic, and Samcro all share the top spot on official ratings.

Ferns Lock, although making his first appearance at Cheltenham, is a proficient jumper and a strong traveller. If he manages to stay the extended 3m2f distance, he's the most likely winner, although that's not certain given his racing style.

Its On The Line, recently acquired by JP McManus and trained by Emmet Mullins, boasts a solid record with three consecutive wins in hunter chases. He battled to victory over one of today's rivals, Billaway, in his last outing at Naas and is a strong stayer who could challenge Ferns Lock on the run-in.

Premier Magic secured victory in last year's race and followed up with another win at Cheltenham in May. Although he held off Its On The Line by 1¾ lengths last year, the latter has gained experience since then, and Premier Magic might find it tougher to repeat his success.

Samcro has shown revitalised form in point-to-point races, winning four times between October and November. While he might struggle against the likes of Ferns Lock and Its On The Line, he can't be completely discounted.

Billaway, winner of this race in 2022, fell twelve months ago but showed promise in his recent runner-up finish at Naas. Although his jumping isn't as polished as some of his rivals, his staying power keeps him in the mix.

Quintin’s Man found 2m6f an inadequate stamina test when 3rd of eight at Haydock last month. He won a course and distance hunter chase here last May so the return to today’s trip appears more suitable. He’s going the right way but would need to improve plenty to trouble the principles.

Sine Nomine delivered an improved performance to win a heavy ground hunter chase at Wetherby last month. The mare is now three from five under Rules and, whilst she needs to improve again to even get into the places, she might be capable of doing so.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase  Pace Map

The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. As such, it's not to be trusted for all that it implies a fair gallop set by one or both of Billaway and Ferns Lock with possibly 14yo Shantou Flyer wanting a piece, too, if he can keep up!

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection

The battle seems to be between Ferns Lock and Its On The Line. If Ferns Lock conserves his energy early on, he’s the most likely winner, but Its On The Line is a strong finisher. Premier Magic, last year's winner, can't be dismissed, and for those seeking a value bet, Sine Nomine will hopefully be available at decent each-way odds.

That's a wrap for me. I've thoroughly enjoyed sharing my race previews with you, and I hope you've found them enjoyable and informative. Until next time, happy racing!

Suggestion: Try Ferns Lock to win at 11/4 and/or Sine Nomine each way at 16/1 or bigger.

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4.50 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Ah, the Mares' Chase. An 'after the Lord Mayor's Show' of a race if ever there was. Or maybe 'After the Lord Mares' Show'. Perhaps not. Let's get on with it, shall we?

It's 20/1 bar four and that's mainly because Dinoblue, even money, is in the field. Her form in front of Gentleman De Mee and closest to El Fabiolo the last twice is the best by a margin; but she's only run once at this twenty furlong range, a ten length fourth in a Fairyhouse G1 novice hurdle. She kept on that day, and doubts about stablemate Lossiemouth's stamina for a similar step up were unambiguously dispelled on Tuesday. She'll probably win - she's a really smart mare.

But what if she doesn't stay? In such a scenario, Gavin Cromwell may hold the key. He runs two, Limerick Lace and Brides Hill. Limerick Lace handles soft and heavy ground, stays very well (keeping on second in the three mile Thyestes Chase) and bolted up in a Listed mares' race at this trip in Doncaster last time. I'm not convinced she's quick enough but I'm certain she'll handle conditions.

Brides Hill is on a four-timer, and she looks a trip specialist. She, too, has soft ground form, though not heavy ground form, and she's had a lot of races. She'd not be near the top of my list.

Another with conditions in her corner is Allegorie De Vassy, twice a winner on heavy in her last three starts, both in Listed company. She finished second in this last year and may again have to settle for minor honours, though she probably will go close.

Making a case for anything else is probably folly, but at a massive price Marsh Wren is better suited to conditions than most. Still a novice, she's a winner of eight of 13 starts, three of four in chases, and went to Ireland to beat some of their Listed class mares last time. She has a chunk to find on the book but goes from the front and will, as they say, "give a bold sight".

Mares' Chase Pace Map

This should be a proper test at the trip which may or may not find out the best mare in the field. Kestrel Valley and Marsh Wren, along with Dinoblue's stablemate, Instit (pronounced Ansty, apparently), will be the trailblazers.

Mares' Chase Selection

Dinoblue has to show she stays, and she might. If we knew she did, she wouldn't be evens, I guess, but I still don't like that price given the unanswered question. Limerick Lace is probably quite solid for all that she's probably quite slow (might be what's needed if it's wet) and Allegorie De Vassy is another the market (and I) expect(s) to be on the premises. If you want to go mad - we might need to by this point - Marsh Wren without the favourite, could sneak a minor placing.

Suggestion: I'm going to try to get Dinoblue beaten, which will be a waste of time if she stays. In that context, back Limerick Lace to win at 9/2.

TIX PIX: A's only

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5.30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by David Massey. This year’s Martin Pipe is a slightly strange affair, with a less compressed look to the handicap than is normally the case. It tends to be a 0-145 handicap where the bottom in is usually around the low 130’s but this time around you’ve a few below that mark and bottom weight Russian Ruler, for the not-in-form Nicky Henderson (it has to turn, doesn’t it?), is rated just 122. 

The lowest rating for anything winning this in the last decade is 135, and most of the unexposed ones that tend to do well in the race are 130+, and I think we’ll find the winner there. 

Ocastle Des Mottes is one of the Willie Mullins plots for this and he has a touch of the Galopins about him. The future Gold Cup winner had been sixth in a Grade 1 on his previous start before winning this in 2021 and Ocastle Des Mottes, whilst not competing at that level last time, still went off favourite for the Betfair Hurdle last month. Perhaps all the pre-race shenanigans when he had to be re-shod didn’t help his cause, but he was a little disappointing all the same in finishing eighth. I feel that, given the level of support he had that day, he must be capable of better, and I’d not be writing him off on the back of one run. 

Willie’s Quai De Bourbon is the one that’s come in for all the support ever since the market opened, but he looks underpriced on what he’s achieved so far. His defeat of stablemate Westport Cove looks solid enough, with the runner-up going on to be beaten 12 lengths by Tullyhill at the Dublin Racing Festival, and a mark of 140 looks fair enough. He has one of the most experienced jockeys on board in Michael O’Sullivan and he has plenty of upside to him. The market has him well found, all the same. 

Gordon Elliott has twice won this in recent years and of his battalion Better Days Ahead is the one that makes the most appeal. He didn’t shine in the Champion Bumper last year but has shown steady progression in four hurdles starts, coming up against Slade Steel at Navan two starts ago (not knocked about as the stable’s second string that day, but still not beaten far) and then second to Asian Master over a trip too short at Navan last time. Those two pieces of form look all the stronger after the Supreme and, with the useful Danny Gilligan in the plate, he just about heads up my shortlist. 

It isn’t a totally one-sided affair, as the British have won the Martin Pipe twice in the last four years, with Iroko last year and the game Indefatigable four years ago (seems like yesterday, that) but the home team is not a strong one. You’d like to think at some point David Pipe might win the race named after his father but he’s 0-23 despite chucking some decent ammunition at it over the years. Thanksforthehelp was probably trying to get himself qualified for the Pertemps at Chepstow last time; that failed, and this looks more in hope than any great plan. 

The one I could throw a few quid at each-way from our side is Gary Moore’s Teddy Blue. I’m not entirely convinced he’s in the right race today - the County would have been my preference -  but regardless, he’s developed his own ideas about the game and isn’t one to fully trust. That’s fine if he’s a 40-1 shot, as you don’t have to pay a lot to find out what side of bed he’s got out of, but his recent form is decent enough. He travelled up well to throw down a challenge in the Lanzarote before fading late and, at Ascot last time, was only beaten five lengths in a competitive affair. He will hang left under pressure, and the hope is a fast-run affair will keep him on the bridle long enough before he realises he’s in a race and by then, he’s hopefully got the place part of the bet wrapped up.  

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map

Again, not obviously stacked with pace but hard to see that it won't be truly run. Gordon runs seven so one will likely go on, most likely either or both of Better Days Ahead or Mel Monroe.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: Two bets for me - each-way 10/1 Better Days Ahead and a little win and place at 50/1 Teddy Blue.

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And that, as they say, will be that. I hope that you're having a great week, be it only in sport or with some wagering success too, and wishing you all the best with your Friday plays. Thanks a million for following geegeez this week, and special thanks to the great writing assistance I've received from David, Rory, Gavin and John - top men, all. Do check out their links in the above if you've appreciated their work as much as I have.

Be lucky.

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day 3 Preview, Tips

Day Three, Thursday, and it's out with the Old (Course) and in with the New (Course). Fresh ground then, but plenty of precipitation has tumbled over it so mud lovers aforethought perhaps...

1.30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. The Turners is an intermediate distance novice chase and one which, unlike other intermediate distance races, tends to detract from the Arkle and Brown Advisory without ever really establishing its own identity. For some that will be a harsh interpretation but, besides a couple of arguable exceptions (Vautour, Chantry House, Stage Star - I told you they were arguable), there's little on the roll of honour to get the pulse charging. No matter, for every race needs a winner, and I'd be better investing your reading time in that challenge than navel-gazing about the right for this contest to exist.

This season's renewal fits that 'not quite as good as it ought to be' bill to a nicety. The betting is headed by Grey Dawning, trained by Dan Skelton. A 14 length winner of the G2 Hampton Novices' Chase at Warwick last time, he was flattered greatly by that margin: Broadway Boy and Apple Away went at it from the get go, trading blows as though this was a mile and a half sprint. It wasn't, and they cooked each other allowing GD to plod past exhausted rivals.

Still, he must be a good horse, and his previous second to Ginny's Destiny perhaps holds the key to unlocking this race. That was here but on the other track, but Ginny's has run his last four races - all over fences - here, winning the most recent three including one on this exact track/trip. Paul Nicholls will saddle him and Harry Cobden will steer, and he's very likely to try to make all. But perhaps Grey Dawning handles really deep ground better? Certainly his more patient run style could be favourable.

Pick of the Irish is expected (by the market, at least) to be Facile Vega. Trained by Willie and ridden by Paul Townend, he won the Champion Bumper in 2022 and was second to Marine Nationale in the Supreme last year. That form entitles him to win this, except that over fences he's been a couple of beats slower: having won his beginners' chase on soft to heavy, he's been turned over in a brace of Grade 1's on quicker ground. This will be a first run beyond 2m1f for him and, if he stays - the million dollar question - he's got a right chance.

Iroko was presumed out for the season but returns here for a first run since early November. He was a good winner of last year's Martin Pipe and made a highly promising chase debut on his sole spin this term; but that layoff is a big niggle for me.

Gordon Elliott sends Zanahiyr to this, having pulled stumps mid-season on a hurdling campaign and got two chases into him. The first was a novice-y round behind Fact To File, form which might not look too bad after the Brown Advisory - and, actually, doesn't look too bad anyway; and the second was a hard fought verdict over Aspire Tower over a trip too short. Both those races were beginners' chases and this is a big step up in class, for all that he's mixed it with the best hurdlers for three and a half seasons. His fencing inexperience is a concern and he might be slightly better on a sounder surface.

Venetia sends Djelo here. He started off beating Master Chewy in a handicap chase and then won two more chases, the last of which was a G2, before having no chance when completely buggered up by Matata's errant transit at Lingfield in January. Since then, Djelo ran second to the very talented (and probably under-rated) Nickle Back in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase: that was on good ground and he was ridden patiently, never able to reel in the runaway winner. But that form fits here, and he's probably a touch over-priced.

I'm struggling to make much of a case for the remainder.

Turners Novices' Chase Pace Map

Ginny's Destiny probably leads, with a few close up, but I'm expecting an even gallop.

Turners Novices' Chase Selection

Grey Dawning is clearly a talented horse and he migh just win, but I don't like his price. Similarly, Ginny's Destiny has a small question to answer on the ground for me and his price doesn't allow for that. I think Facile Vega could take a big step forward for the extra three furlongs, and he's a win only play in case he simply doesn't stay. But Djelo looks the one who will appreciate conditions and is a fat price.

Suggestion: Try Facile Vega win only at 10/3 or Djelo e/w at 16/1.

TIX PIX: 'A' banker and maybe couple of C's

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2.10 Pertemps Final (Grade 3 handicap, 3m)

Previewed by Rory Delargy. The first thing to look for in the Pertemps Final is what runs for Gordon Elliott. He’s had 19 runners since 2017 (including one putatively trained by Denise 'Sneezy' Foster) and has saddled three winners and three seconds in that time. All of those horses were priced at 10/1 or shorter, so we must have maximum respect for the Elliott first string, Cleatus Poolaw.

Cleatus Poolaw has the right profile for a handicap hurdle winner here, being an unexposed novice arriving on the back of a career-best effort when 3½ lengths second of 14 to Noble Birth in the recent Naas qualifier. He’s 9lb higher for that which seems fair given that was his first handicap outing and he ought to progress for it. He has a remarkably similar profile to Delta Work, who won this as a novice in 2018 before quickly proving himself a Grade 1 performer. I don’t think Cleatus Poolaw is in that category, but he’s certainly a must for the shortlists in a race with extra places on offer.

Gaoth Chuil is a second-season hurdler who has run really well upped to 3m on her last two starts at Leopardstown and remains unexposed as a stayer. The British handicapper hasn’t been harsh on her considering she may well have won last time but for a late error, and she is in shrewd hands with Ted Walsh as wily as they come. The one off-putting thing is that the only time she has travelled to the UK, she ran her only poor race at Aintree last spring. Plenty of horses dislike travelling and it’s possible that she’s one, for all a sample size of one is hardly enough to make a conclusion.

Le Milos may prove best of the Brits, with Dan Skelton clearly feeling the return to hurdles could pay dividends with last season’s Coral Gold Cup winner. Of similar merit over hurdles and fences when with Tim Vaughan, he has improved markedly for Skelton and is lower in this sphere than over the larger obstacles, opening up the possibility that he could be well treated. He qualified with a low-key run at Market Rasen and was given a strangely (!) negative ride at Ascot last time. There is no better trainer at playing the handicap system at this meeting than Dan Skelton, and Le Milos is following a typical Skelton route of keeping under the radar before the big meeting.

Cuthbert Dibble is a really likeable sort for Nigel Twiston-Davies, and the trainer has won this race twice before, but the last time was in 2008 and his record of a win and six places from 52 handicap hurdle runners in the last two decades is slightly off-putting. Cuthbert Dibble has won both starts over hurdles this term, but that is not a positive historically, with only Presenting Percy since 2010 having won more than once in the current season (and that wasn’t by design!). It’s also unusual for the winner of this to have won a qualifier with only one of the last 22 winners having done so. In short, Cuthbert Dibble’s connections have been too honest in his campaigning, which is why I’d love to see him win.

Kyntara is one to consider at bigger odds, for all he’s shown his hand to a greater extent. Well suited by soft or heavy ground, he has only had nine starts over hurdles and has looked most reliable, only finishing out of the frame once. Second in the Warwick qualifier, he improved again when runner-up to Emitom last time, and while he’s not had his handicap mark minded, he could still run well for Mel Rowley, whose horses are in good nick at present.

Nicky Henderson has a good record at getting his horses into the frame in handicap hurdles at this meeting, but the abject form of the yard suggests that his runners in this may be pulled out; that said, he’s kept some in on Wednesday, and it’s possible that those (housed away from those who have been running poorly, perhaps?) will perform better, which would shed a new light on things. In the meantime, they need to be left alone.

Pertemps Final Pace Map

Plenty of pace on, as you'd expect.

Pertemps Final Selection

Shortlist: Those highlighted in bold, with Le Milos just getting the nod at current prices.

Suggestion: Try Le Milos at 12/1 each way with extra places.

TIX PIX: A's and B's and C's

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2.50 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. One shy of a dozen very good, but maybe not great, horses line up for this year's Ryanair. The best of them is probably Banbridge, but he's got a problem: the celestial taps appear stuck in the 'on' position and that's simply no good for him. In fact, he probably won't run. If he does line up and it's wet, he's a lay.

The reigning Ryanair champion is Envoi Allen, and he's back to defend his crown. Last season he won a G1 at Down Royal before a no show in the King George en route to this gig; this time he flunked in a Gowran pipe opener and was pipped in the Down Royal G1. His trainer, Henry de Bromhead, will have him at concert pitch now and the long absence wasn't an issue twelve months ago. Now ten, he's not getting any younger, mind.

Stage Star looked to have assumed the mantle vacated by the same yard's Frodon this season. He runs most of his races at Cheltenham, mixing handicaps with Graded chases and winning them all... until New Year's Day, when he pulled up on heavy ground. He'd won the Turners last season and the Paddy Power Gold Cup (handicap) this season, so if you can forgive that P last time he's a player.

Gordon Elliott brings Conflated to this party, dropping back from three miles after two last fence unseats in a row. He also fell in this race two years ago, his most recent attempt at the trip, but he wasn't out of the reckoning at that point. A clear round makes him a win only player, but he's obviously a risky conveyance in that regard.

Winning the 3m1f Cotswold Chase is an unorthodox prep for a tilt at the Ryanair, but that's the path plotted by Capodanno's connections. He'd previously been third to Galopin Des Champs in the G1 Lexus (three miles) and ran in last year's Grand National. Eh? Turning back the clock a little further, Capodanno was 2nd to Bob Olinger over this trip in a soft ground Punchestown novice chase, and if it's really testing ground and they go quick, it could bring him into calculations. There are quite a few if's there, however.

Fil Dor, another for Gordie, has the opposite range problem: he's been racing at two miles since his very high class juvenile days, two sorties beyond 17f yielding a couple of clunks, in the Coral Cup and a Grade 2 hurdle at Fairyhouse. Although he finished well on the first of his two chase starts this term, he just doesn't look to have the requisite stamina.

If you're starting to see a pattern whereby horses that are too slow for the Champion Chase or not stout enough for the Gold Cup drop in here, the presence of Protektorat will do little to disabuse you of that notion. He's run over at least 2m6f on his last ten racecourse visits, and beyond three miles in eight of those. Two and a half miles it is then... To be fair to him, he's been third and fifth in the last two Gold Cups, but he's not an obvious Ryanair winner to my eye.

Jamie Snowden has Ga Law, winner of the Paddy Power a year before Stage Star and, therefore, similarly proven in today's conditions. Stage Star was rated 155 to Ga Law's 142, though. This fella had a quintet of clunks on his CV post-Paddy Power but arrested the decline in style with a win on Trials Day here in January. He's never quite convinced as a Grade 1 horse and one of the Festival handicaps might have been a better play, for all that such a plan was probably blown with the last day verdict.

Hitman's best form is at least at two and a half miles, as when he was second in the G1 Melling Chase at Aintree two years ago. He was also third in this race last year when sent off 22/1 and he handles muddy turf. I can see him skulking around out of the way before running on quite strongly, and maybe nicking a place at a big price.

And what about Ahoy Senor? Well, I'm afraid, what about him? He's not looked the force of old this season and he's little to no form at the trip. He could have a part to play, however, if he gets embroiled in the early pace; such an act might be a hindrance to the chance of Stage Star who habitually goes forward himself.

In the long grass lies Fugitif, trained by the slightly unfashionable Richard Hobson and second in the Plate last year. He's a two-and-a-half-miler through and through, and he has been campaigned almost exclusively at Cheltenham for two seasons now. During that time, his track record is 222413, all but the most recent figure achieved in handicap company. Then, on Trials Day, he ran in the two mile Clarence House Chase, diverted from Ascot, and finished off well without ever having the pace to challenge Elixir De Nutz or Jonbon. He's another who won't be involved early but who could fall into the frame late - and he's long odds at that.

Ryanair Chase Pace Map

Stage Star is most likely to lead but he may not get it all to himself. Should be a truly run race.

Ryanair Chase Selection

It's a really interesting betting puzzle but not an easy one. I'm inclined to take a small win only chance on Conflated, and two even smaller (like, miniscule) e/w plays - extra places, please! - on Hitman and Fugitif. I won't get rich or poor punting that trio but it might make for an interesting watch,

Suggestion: Try Conflated win only at 8/1 and/or very small each way on 25/1 Hitman and/or 33/1 Fugitif

TIX PIX: A's and B's and C's

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3.30 Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.

All of the last 14 winners had their last run in a Graded race (13/14 in Grade 1 or Grade 2).

All of the last 14 winners had been rested at least 30 days (13/14 46 days).

All bar one winner this century had finished top 4 last time out (exception fell).

13 of the last 14 winners were rated 152+.

13 of the last 14 winners were aged 6-9yo.

13 of the last 14 winners had run at the track previously.

13 of the last 14 winners had run 1-4 times over hurdles that Season (October).

12 of the last 14 winners returned 14/1 or shorter.

9 of the last 14 winners had finished top 2 in all completed runs since October.

8 of the last 14 winners won their last race.

6 of the last 14 winners had their last run at Cheltenham.

No 5yo has ever won the World Hurdle / Stayers Hurdle.

Only 2 horses aged over 9 have won (1986 Crimson Ember & 2023 Sire De Berlais).

All 12 runners stepping up from handicap company have been beaten.

There have been only 6 Irish winners since 1996 and they have come in the last 10 years (Solwhit, Nicholls Canyon, Penhill, Flooring Porter (x2) and Sire De Berlais).

5 of the last 7 winners were 7yo. 7 of the last 10 winners were second season hurdlers.

With four 9yo's, two 10yo's, an 11yo and three 12yo's in the 13 strong line up you'd be forgiven for thinking this is a veteran's race!

Nine-year-old winners are rare with most of those that win being previous winners of the race (Galmoy 87/88, Inglis Drever 07/08 and Big Bucks 09/10/11/12), although Solwhit did win in 2013 on his first start in the race and on his first attempt at 3 miles: there's always a trends busting result somewhere in the history of a race.

Eleven-year-old winners are even rarer with last year's champion, Sire Du Berlais, being the first of that age to prevail since 1986 (Crimson Embers). No ten-year-old has won in the modern era (1972 onwards) or any horse twelveplus (there was a 13yo winner in 1927!). I think it's safest to stick to the 6-8yo age group unless an older horse has previously won the Stayers Hurdle.

That gives us four possibles who all seem to pass the main trends for this race: Teahupoo, Crambo, Flooring Porter and Paisley Park.

As much as I'd like to see Paisley Park turn back the clock and win it for the second time I just think he'll find at least one or two too good as he has done all season. There won't be a more popular winner all week should he manage it but I'm going to reluctantly look to one of the relative youngsters in the field, the 7yo CRAMBO.

He beat Paisley Park in an exciting renewal of the Long Walk at Ascot just before Christmas. Five of the last seven winners have come from that age group, including Paisley Park in his 2019 win, and the selection has done nothing but improve over the last twelve months. He made the transition from decent handicapper to Grade 1 winner at Ascot and, although he'll need to improve again, he looks on an upward curve and more than capable of finding that little bit extra.

SELECTION: CRAMBO 1pt

 

Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map

With Flooring Porter, Dashel Drasher and Home By The Lee all set to go forward, this may be run at quite a fast clip.

Stayers' Hurdle Selection

Shortlist: Teahupoo, Crambo, Flooring Porter and Paisley Park

Suggestion: Try CRAMBO 1pt win at 11/2.

TIX PIX: A's and B's

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Festival Trends

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4.10 Festival Plate (Grade 3 handicap, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by David Massey.

Top of the list for this year’s renewal of the Plate is Theatre Man, for all he’s been well backed in the last 48 hours. That can hardly be a surprise, given his profile, and his latest form - when second to Ginny’s Destiny in the Timeform Novices Handicap Chase at Cheltenham - might already have received a boost earlier in the afternoon. If Ginny’s has won, God alone knows what price Theatre Man might go off. 

He’s only had the three chase starts but has taken steps forward each time, and the way he finished off last time suggests he’s going to enjoy coming off a solid pace. He gets a bit further than this (although on soft ground, he’d not get three miles) and as ever, that’s never a bad thing this week. 

I’d have liked to have seen what Trelawne could have done in the Ultima on Tuesday as regards Crebilly’s chance, as he was last of three behind Jonjo O’Neill’s unexposed 7yo at Exeter and might have given the form a boost. The assumption is that Crebilly has been laid out for this, but Jonjo’s suffered a few reverses in the past couple of weeks and for all the chat is about how moderately many of Nicky’s are running this week, Jackdaws Castle doesn’t appear to be firing on all cylinders either, and he’s easy enough to pass over at around a miserly 4-1.

Henry De Bromhead took no time in getting off the mark this week, winning the very first race, and his Arctic Bresil is the most interesting of the Irish contingent. The Irish used to struggle to win this, but they’ve won five of the last eight renewals and seemingly, like most races Festival week, they are getting the hang of this one, too. Arctic Bresil was, let’s say, quite eyecatching when second to Mister Policeman at Punchestown over two miles last time; he could never get on terms with the easy winner, but stayed on quite takingly for second, not asked for much effort, and looked like he wanted a longer trip. Normally I wouldn’t even look at one that‘s not won over the trip but he’s bred to want this, a half-brother to a couple that won over 2m4f-3m, and since when have the Irish ever taken any notice of trends and stats? 

I’ve desperately tried to crowbar Frero Banbou into this as well, as he’s got his ground and has plenty of Cheltenham form to call upon. Sadly, one of his lesser efforts was in this last year when he finished twelfth, and given he’s not won for over two years, the case for him is thinner than an After Eight mint that's been stepped on by an elephant. Still, Venetia has a decent Plate record, with three winners and two seconds, and I won’t be able to resist a throwaway tenner on the Tote (surely the way to play him) if he’s a monster price. 

And finally, the curious case of Saint Felicien. Well backed for the 2022 Coral Cup, he ran a stinker on bad ground, with connections stating he wanted quicker ground. After an absence of twenty months, he ran a cracker in the circumstances to finish a nine-length third to Facile Vega in a beginners chase at Navan, and although he took another three goes to get off the mark he was quite impressive at Gowran Park last time, jumping a bit cleaner than had been the case. It might be he’s finally twigged what’s required and as an unexposed chaser (this will be his fifth start over fences) he’s open to more improvement. And the ground for all four of those chase starts? According to Timeform - heavy, heavy, heavy and heavy. I’m not so convinced it wants quicker ground...

Festival Plate Pace Map

A Festival handicap. They'll go quick. Saint Felicien and Frero Banbou expected to be up top, and we'll see how long they can stay there for.

Festival Plate Selection

I really like Theatre Man and think he has to go close.

Suggestion: 1pt win Theatre Man 9/2

TIX PIX: A's only, being brave!

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4.50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Another of my lesser favoured races of the week is the Dawn Run, but I love the Ryanair, which many people don't, and respect the Stayers' Hurdle - it can't all be golden, can it? This race has thrown some shocks in its time but it looks to have some genuine star quality this time around in the form of Jade De Grugy, Dysart Enos and, notably, Brighterdaysahead.

Let's start with the last named who trained Gordon Elliott has suggested could be the best he's had. I mean, he's conditioned thousands of horses and, I think 88 Grade 1 winners in UK/Ire, so that's a bold shout. If he's even nearly right, she'll win. But let's look at her known credentials rather than the soundbite. She's five from five, two bumpers and three hurdles, and cost €310,000 as an unraced store!

That's because her pedigree is Kapgarde out of Matnie, the mare who'd already produced Mighty Potter, French Dynamite, Indiana Jones and Caldwell Potter, all 150+ RPR horses, although not all of them had run to that level when she was bought. She won a G3 mares' novice by five lengths in spite of a mistake at the last, then she won a Listed mares' novice over 2m5f by 12 lengths without turning a hair. That was on heavy ground and the G3 on soft so it probably can't be wet enough for her.

Jade De Grugy is similarly unbeaten, in three in her case, and she too sauntered home in a G3 mares' novice last time. She'd previously bolted up in a big field maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over this trip and is also proven on very soft turf. On figures, there's little between the two mentioned so far and it's a question of projecting which can leap forward the most in a race where they are both, and many others too, expected to leave current levels of form behind.

Dysart Enos is the one to have achieved the most on the track hitherto. Trained by Fergal O'Brien, she's a Grade 2 bumper winner, at the Aintree Festival last season, a race that habitually throws a slew of future winners. As well as her own three from three form since, second placed - and re-opposing - Golden Ace has won both starts since, and third home Williamstowndancer is three from five subsequently. Dysart Enos's novice hurdle form is all ungraded but she does have a win over the track to her name and on soft ground, too. Most of her form is on quicker sod, mind, and there's a small niggle there.

Jeremy Scott, whose Dashel Drasher has been such an incredible flag bearer, saddles Golden Ace, closest to Dysart Enos at Aintree and a dual scorer at a good ungraded level since. She's by Golden Horn out of a Dubawi mare, so an interesting (blue blood) pedigree. I feel that Golden Horn could be one of the pre-eminent NH stallions in a year or two so it will be interesting to see how this mare goes.

It's quite big prices the rest, led by Birdie Or Bust. Although one must respect everything Henry de Bromhead brings to the Festival, her defeat by Williamstowndancer and whacking at the hooves of Brighterdaysahead suggest she's a lot on her plate. In her defence, she has a 'now' factor about her having won a Listed race last time; that was on yielding, and it will be likely be deeper underfoot, as well as in opposition terms, here.

One rank outsider that should be mentioned is Majestic Force. Trained by Henry, she has had just one run, a rallying win on heavy ground over two and a half miles in a Punchestown maiden hurdle. That's not obviously the answer to this conundrum, but the fact she's entered is interesting even if probably not sufficiently so to merit small investment.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Three who have made a habit of being close to the front, including Jade de Grugy; but we have scant evidence to go on. Will probably be truly, perhaps strongly, run.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection

Some very promising mares in here, most notably the top three in the market. It's close on what they've achieved so far between Brighterdaysahead and Jade De Grugy, and so the fact that the latter is a point bigger tempts me more than the 'best yet' chat about the former (for all that I doubt that's unfounded). Dysart Enos has a bit to find on hurdles form and there is usually something less considered lurking that can improve into podium contention - that could be Golden Ace or Majestic Force. But this looks very likely to go to the top of the market.

Suggestion: Back 9/4 Jade De Grugy as a credible value alternative to a very promising hype horse in Brighterdaysahead.

TIX PIX: A banker with a few C's

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5.30 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)

Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk. The Kim Muir has not been a good race for favourite backers in recent seasons with favourites (clear & joint) recording only one winner from 12 bets -£8 to £1 stake, 4 placed in the last ten years.

Eight of the last ten winners of the races were returned between 3/1 & 12/1. However, there have been two winners at 40/1, including Chambard in 2022.

Eight winners were ages 7 & 8.

Nine winners carried 11-0 or more. Those carrying less than 11-0 are one winner from 47 runners, two placed. The sole winner carrying below 11 stone was Chambard.

Eight of the last ten winners had an Official Rating 137+.

Six of the last ten winners were running within 30 days of their last start. If you had backed all 63 runners you would have made a £52.5pts profit to a £1 level stake and +100.76 to BFSP.

This year's Kim Muir boasts both an impressive field size and depth. Indeed, one could make a compelling case for half of the 24-strong field.

Inothewayurthinkin appears to have been meticulously prepared for this race and can improve for the step up to 3m 2f. With favourable ground conditions and the talented Derek O’Connor booked, he emerges as a strong contender. However, there are slight concerns regarding his jumping, and his current odds don’t offer much value in such a competitive field. 

Where It All Began recently secured his first win over fences in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown, displaying a preference for testing ground and 3m 3f. Although his chances may be affected by drying ground, he remains nicely handicapped and could be a serious threat if replicating that recent performance. Stablemate Cool Survivor, while yet to win over fences, has won over hurdles (3m) and could improve for today's longer trip.

Angels Dawn, last year’s winner, showcased a return to form with a third-place finish in the Thyestes Chase. However, she’s 11lb higher than 12 months ago and faces a stronger line-up this time around.

Dom Of Mary demonstrated his staying ability when winning the Sussex National (3m 4½ f) at Plumpton two starts back and wasn’t disgraced off 9lb higher when 1 ¾ length 3rd of 8 at Sandown (3m) last time.  A good stamina test will suit, and he’s got scope off his present mark when he gets such a test.

Rapper won a handicap chase over course and distance last January. Mostly out of form since, he returned to something like his best when a length 2nd of nine to Threeunderthrufive at Ascot last time. He needs to back up that latest effort which isn’t certain given his profile, but he’s got each way claims on a going day.

Bowtogreatness remains a maiden after nine starts over the larger obstacles but ran a cracker when 2½ lengths 3rd of 12 to Forward Plan in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton 19 days ago. However, it's worth noting that he didn't display the strongest finishing effort at Kempton, a pattern observed previously. It’s a tough race to try to break the maiden tag over fences but he’s handicapped to be competitive.

Daily Present, despite lacking experience over fences, displayed a good attitude to rally and win on handicap chase debut at Down Royal (3m) last time. The way he finished his race last time suggests a step up in trip will suit and he could be yet another dark horse in the mix.

Lastly, Whacker Clan, a winner over course and distance in October, looks poised to perform well. The runner-up that day, Twig, finished second in the Ultima here on Tuesday. This chap was not seen again until a prep run over hurdles last month, and that run should have put him spot on fitness wise; provided the ground isn’t too testing, he’s certainly one to watch closely. Stablemate Amirite was better fancied in the betting in the Cheltenham race but unfortunately his saddle slipped, resulting in a 4th place finish. On his latest outing he finished 5th of 27 in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. While he seemed to handle soft ground adequately there, his winning performances have mostly been on a sounder surface. His stamina for the 3m 2f distance still needs to be demonstrated, but he's likely on a fair mark.  

Kim Muir Pace Map

It's a huge field handicap chase. They'll go quick.

Kim Muir Selection

Considering the size of the field, it's a race where more than one bet can be justified, and that's my approach. I'm opting against the potentially well-handicapped favourite Inothewayurthinkin, even though he might end up winning. At 7/1 odds I might have been interested, but at 7/2 I'm looking elsewhere. That leaves me with Where It All Began, Whacker Clan, Daily Present, and Rapper.

While Rapper has the potential to win if it's his day, his inconsistency makes me hesitant. However, I might place a small saver bet on him just in case he triumphs at a big price and I miss out. Daily Present appears to be a wise guy horse from Ireland and could attract money, but he lacks the necessary experience for me. Thus, my focus shifts to Where It All Began and Whacker Clan.

Suggestion: 1pt win 14/1 Where It All Began and 12/1 Whacker Clan

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Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

Day Two. Wednesday. The second half of the first half and a day when, seemingly, it has rained since time immemorial. After a full on drenching last year, the action may again be played out under sullen skies and over sodden swards. Be that as it may, we have a second septet of compelling skirmishes, each one an opportunity to play up - or down - our tank. Vamanos!

1.30 Gallagher Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

Ah, the Ballymore Baring Bingham Gallagher Novices' Hurdle. Fair play to the new sponsors, who stepped in at the eleventh hour to support this race and who, I trust, got a commensurate discount as a result. It's a disappointing reality that sponsors are hard to come by at the pinnacle event - certainly the one where those hawking products and services can expect the most eyeballs and, therefore, traction - in the sport. By my count, and there might be reasons unknown to me for why they're not, none of the National Hunt Chase, Grand Annual, County and Martin Pipe have a sponsor. Crikey. Anyway, the Bally... Baring... Gallagher does, and good luck to them: they're an insurance company and Jockey Club supporter lest you didn't know.

Down the years, this race has been more of a kingmaker for the Champion Hurdle than the Supreme in spite of that one's recent alumnus Constitution Hill flying the flag for the day one curtain raiser. Gallagher simply looks at Ballyburn and says, "hold my drink"...

There is little doubt in anyone's mind that, prior to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Ballyburn brings the best novice form. His pre-race RPR is 7lb superior to anything else in this race and 10lb clear of the top rated in the Supreme (Slade Steel, who he comprehensively beat last time). Five runs to date (six if you include his easy point win) have yielded two bumper scores, latterly at the Punchestown Festival, and, though beaten on seasonal debut by Firefox, he's since won a maiden (by 25 lengths from a good horse) and the Grade 1 two mile novice at the Dublin Racing Festival, by seven lengths and with another seven back to the third. He's got an almighty engine on him, and seems to be pretty versatile ground wise; the trip is fine and he can lead or race handily; and he's jumped very well in the main.

The only slight reservation I can think of - and it is really slight - is that he's not had to jump a hurdle at the business end in his last two races; so while he's been well on top each time, we don't know how he hurdles under pressure. I expect he'll be fine, but I don't know.

A better question might be to ask which horses can put him under pressure, so let's posit that one. Ile Atlantique, another Willie entry, was outstayed by yet another from Closutton in Readin Tommy Wrong in the G1 Lawlor's of Naas over two and a half last time. Tommy heads for the Albert Bartlett, rightly so as his effort in Naas was very much one of a stayer. It is often said of the Gallagher that it's more of a speed than a stamina test, with runners tending to settle into a steadier rhythm than, say, the Supreme - a two mile burn up from flag fall. That being the case, Ile Atlantique's two mile tactical speed could be valuable, though he's only run once over timber prior to his defeat last time. That was a maiden hurdle which he won by 19 lengths, beating little of consequence. He looks to have a good bit to find, though it's possible that he will locate at least some of the form deficit with Ballyburn for his ultra-shrewd owner, Tony Bloom (pictured above).

Predators Gold is a horse that interests me. He's a son of Masked Marvel, a sire I've bet on being 'the coming man' of the NH stallion ranks by acquiring and syndicating an expensive yearling filly with 50% his genes! It'll be a few years before we find out how good she is, and in the meantime I've become a full-time cheerleader for the Marvel behind the Mask. He's pretty good is this lad in spite of silver medals the last twice. Those were both in G1's, at two miles and then two and three-quarters, and this slight drop in trip on presumed slightly better ground could be the happy medium he seeks. In truth, I don't think he can beat Ballyburn - he's a touch more exposed than a couple of others in here - but he's a good chance of being on the podium again. Does it go without saying that he's a 42nd string to the wildly hirsute Mullins bow?

Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford. He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie. That form reads pretty well for all that it's probably a dollop below the pick of the Irish team. Still, he has very clear potential and might come out as the top home team runner (if you like sound bites, his trainer has apparently suggested Handstands is better than Willoughby Court, who won this race in 2017).

Nicky Henderson has Jingko Blue, three times a runner and twice a winner to date. A non-standard prep has seen him eschew Graded action in favour of a Class 3 handicap last time out; he fair bolted up there, seeing his official rating balloon from 124 to 140 in the process. Even allowing for the further progression that leap implies, he still has something like a stone to find with Ballyburn. And soft ground may not be in his favour, though the jury remains out on that score.

Willie has the outsider Mercurey, too, this one running in the Mr Blobby / Susannah Ricci colours. He's stepping up half a mile in trip and, by Muhtathir, that doesn't look the most obvious manoeuvre (that's easy for me to spell!). So far he's been beaten in two maidens before getting off the mark in a third such race, and that doesn't fit with this race. I can't see him at all.

Jimmy Du Seuil was picked up for €200,000 in October 2022 and then we didn't see him for more than a year - amazing how often that happens with Willie runners - before he just failed to reel in stablemate Asian Master in a maiden hurdle. He was the evens favourite that day so clearly felt to be at a good level, and he made no mistake a month later in similar company.

Having written about these two horses, I was curious as to how Willie's maiden winner to Grade 1 hurdlers have performed. In 2008, Fiveforthree bridged that class chasm as a 7/1 chance in the Ballymore - now Gallagher - i.e. this race. And in 2022, The Nice Guy did likewise at 18/1 in the Spuds race. Thirty others tried and failed, though you'd have got paid out on at least six of them for a place. In other words, market wise, they've probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don't win.

Gallagher Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

More Willies out front than a Festival urinal, and one of them will tow Ballyburn into the race if he doesn't make his own running.

 

 

Gallagher Novices' Hurdle Selection

I am not going to be especially creative here. Ballyburn can lead or follow, handles the ground, has won at the distance, generally jumps fluently for a novice and has the best form. What's not to like? Again, he's not necessarily a bad price even though he's a short price. I like Predators Gold but not to beat the jolly.

Suggestion: Back Ballyburn or just watch the race.

TIX PIX: 'A' banker and maybe couple of C's

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2.10 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.

All of the last 14 winners were rated 144+.

All of the last 14 winners had raced 2-5 times over fences.

All of the last 14 winners had run in the previous 25-80 day period.

All of the last 14 winners had finished top 3 on their last start (when completing).

All of the last 14 winners were aged 6-8yo (10/13 were 7yo's).

All of the last 14 winners had won over hurdles from no more than 10 hurdle runs.

All of the last 14 winners raced over 2m4f-3m last time out.

All of the last 14 winners had raced 6-16 times under rules in their career.

13 of the last 14 winners ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out.

13 of the last 14 winners had finished top 4 in all completed Chases.

10 of the last 14 winners had raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival.

All 27 horses fitted with headgear have been beaten this century.

The last mare to win the RSA was way back in 1981 (all 10 female runners this century have finished unplaced).

None of the last 14 winners had run on the flat.

A disappointing turnout for the race and yet again we have a Willie Mullins odds on favourite, Fact To File, to contend with but this time he doesn't quite tick all the trends boxes due to him going straight from NH flat races to chasing without running, and therefore winning, over hurdles. Although it's only a small chink in his profile it does give us some hope that we can get one of these Mullins hotpots beaten.

Paul Nicholls' Stay Away Fay won last year's Albert Bartlett Hurdle and has had a great start to his chasing career winning his first two and then running the race of his life when a close third in the Cotswold Chase last time out. Racing against hardened, more experienced chasers he battled all the way to the line to get within 3 1/2 lengths of the Grade 1-winning Mullins chaser Capodanno and last year's Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker. Back down to novice company he should go well but wearing headgear is a big no no in the Brown Advisory and I don't like that Nicholls is reaching for the first time cheekpieces here.

If you take that pair out of the race there's very little to separate the other four runners on ratings so I'm going to take a big chance on the outsider of the field GIOVINCO who was a perfect 3 from 3 over hurdles, including a Listed win, and has done well over fences except a surprisingly poor run in the Kauto Star Novice Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day when racing on good ground. He'd previously been only 1 1/2 lengths behind Stay Away Fay on softer ground at Sandown where he travelled strongly through the race before being continously hampered by a loose horse around the 3rd last fence. He still cruised upside the eventual winner as the pair jumped the last and kept on nicely up the run in but wasn't quite able to keep a straight line and keep tabs with Stay Away Fay in the last 100 yards. He had his warm up for this when cantering home in a two-runner Limited Handicap at Newcastle, against a rival receiving 19lb, and I think he has every chance of outrunning his odds here. I just wish we had eight runners for that 3rd each way place.

Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map

An even pace likely, with Stay Away Fay expected to have his own way in front.

Brown Advisory Chase Selection

SELECTION: GIOVINCO EW 22/1

TIX PIX: A's, B's and C's

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Festival Trends

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2.50 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

Previewed by David Massey. For me, this year’s Coral Cup has been about one horse for quite some time now, and more to the point, whether he’d get a run. For a long time I thought he wouldn’t; then the confirmations were made, and I thought he had a chance, and as it turns out, Doddiethegreat (for it is he) has made it with a bit to spare. What were you worrying about? 

One maxim I always have in racing is this; if they’re brought back after a long absence, there’s usually a reason why, and for all that Doddiethegreat has the Scottish Champion Hurdle as the longer-term target, that doesn’t mean he can’t win this en route; and ever since his Betfair fourth he’s looked just the type to give Nicky Henderson a fifth win in the race. 

After an easy score at Ascot following two years off the track last November, he showed he had retained all of his ability when second to Go Dante over 2m1f here in December, form that’s worked out well, not least from the winner who bagged the Imperial Cup at the weekend. He improved again when fourth in the aforementioned Betfair Hurdle last time, not getting the best of luck in the run but staying on strongly after the last and looking for all the world like a step back up in trip would suit. 

He has already won a novice hurdle over 2m5f at Kempton back in 2021, and ground doesn’t seem to bother him. There are many ticks in boxes when looking at his overall profile, and it’ll be a big disappointment - mainly in terms of my ante-post bets - if he can’t go close. 

If he blows out, then what else? Well, classy types have a decent record in the race and Ballyadam, despite the steadier of twelve stone, has bundles of it. He’s also got Festival form, which is never a bad thing, having finished fifth in the last two editions of the County Hurdle, and I do feel this intermediate trip could be ideal after finishing third to Irish Point in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown last time. A hard task off top weight, but definitely one for those exacta and trifecta mixes. 

Doddiethegreat might be Nicky’s main hope, but I’d not be dismissive of First Street either. Whilst we know him best as a two miler these days, he stayed this sort of trip earlier in his career, and he has won a handicap off a 3lb higher mark back in 2022. He’s run respectably against both Lossiemouth and Constitution Hill this year and comes into this off the back of wind surgery, something he seems to need fairly regularly; but he has won after the procedure before, and the way he’s finished off over hurdles on each occasion this year has suggested he requires this step back up in trip. Another class animal with the right sort of mark from which to go well. 

Others to consider for placepot and exactas/trifectas include Langer Dan, reigning Coral Cup champ and now back to that mark after some down-the-field efforts over trips too short, in the main; Sa Majeste, for so long one of the talking horses; and, at a bigger price, Supreme Gift, who has been chasing for much of the season but, back over hurdles at Ascot last time, went down fighting in a ¾l defeat: third home Astronomic View was an easy winner at Warwick on Sunday, so the form has had a boost. The visor, on that day, is retained, and Harry Cobden is hardly a negative either…

Coral Cup Pace Map

Bound to be a nice bit of pace on, and should be fair to most run styles.

Coral Cup Selection

Back Doddiethegreat at 7/1 with as many places as you can find (six generally, Skybet eight but a point shorter as I write).

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3.30 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

A Champion Chase that has been El Fabiolo's to lose for much of the season. And in the absence of his Closutton mate and reigning champ of the past two years, Energumene, he shows at odds on to register a third victory in a row for that man Mullins, who - let's not forget - had never won the QMCC prior to 2022. More sobering for those taking the short odds is that he'd saddled three odds on favourites, and six priced 9/2 or shorter.

Remember the brilliant Un De Sceaux? Beaten at 4/6 for Willie in 2016. The mighty Douvan? Fell at 9/2 in 2018, when Min was only second as a 5/2 shot, and - worse - 7th in 2017 as a 2/9 chance. Then, more recently, Chacun Pour Soi was returned 8/13 but could only return to the 3rd place area in the winners' enclosure. Since then, Energumene was sent off at 5/2 and 6/5 in his two recent winning years.

So has Willie now found the key? Or should we be wary of quotes of around 1/3? Well, the answer is possibly yes to both questions. A casual glance at El Fabiolo's form, which reads 121111111, four of them Grade 1's, might be enough for the less curious to conclude 'case closed'. There is, however, a small niggle...

We need to talk about El Fab's jumping. It's pretty clumsy and there's no getting away from that fact. If you don't believe me, I've copied the in-running comments from his six races over fences below. He's won them all, but that might be something to keep in mind if you're tempted to pile in at cramped odds.

 

 

In opposition are the usual suspects, pretty much. Jonbon heads them, as he did the rest of the field in last year's Arkle where he was five lengths second to El Fabiolo. After that, he won four on the spin, three of them Grade 1's, before coming surprisingly unstuck at 1-4 in the Clarence House Chase, diverted for the second year in a row to Cheltenham after Ascot was abandoned. His in-running comment that day was prefaced with "didn't jump well", a feature too of his most recent quartet of races. The surprise winner that day was Elixir De Nutz, a likeable and oddly progressive ten-year-old, who had previously been pulled up and midfield in the last two renewals of the Grand Annual: that hardly screams Champion Chase contender. But he has won three of his last four, each time when eschewing his customary front-running role (indeed, when leading early over fences he's won one from ten; when racing prominently early over fences he's four from six - you'd think someone would have mentioned that to connections...)

I mean, I expect this to be well run and the top two in the market - who are clearly the best two horses in the field - have had persistent jumping frailties. While they're comfortably the most likely pair for the exacta, that's not the way to bet.

Last time out, Edwardstone looked a new man under revised tactics. Sent forward in the four-runner heavy ground Grade 2 Game Spirit he barreled clear by 40 lengths from Funabule Sivola. Quite apart from the small field and deep ground, that result is flattering because Boothill looked booked for a certain second, within ten lengths or so of the winner, when ejecting two out. Connections mentioned after that 28th career start, Edwardstone's first as a ten-year-old, that they'd worked out how to ride him. What the... fertilizer? In any case, that chat is patent hogwash as a record of four wins from six completed starts - including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase - when racing prominently asserts. Further, he won the Tingle Creek (G1) when held up so, you know, it's not about the run style, is it? That said, such a sound bite implies he'll want to go forward here and he is unlikely to be alone in that desire.

Getting back to Newbury, and that form line has a dubious look to it; the remainder of Eddy's 2023/24 catalogue is probably a fairer reflection of where he's at: he was twice second to Jonbon before failing to stay two and a half miles behind Banbridge. In his defence, he's the most consistently good jumper of the first three in the market. But I can't really see it.

Who's left? How about Henry de Bromhead's Captain Guinness? HdB is the best trainer at the Festival in recent years - yes, even better than Willie in my opinion - and this lad has strong place prospects. Second to Energumene twelve months ago - Edwardstone tailed off as second favourite, Funambule De Sivola failing to complete - he finished last term getting close to Jonbon in the Celebration Chase at Sandown. He's been campaigned seemingly with this in mind all season: after a G2 win on debut in November, he was pulled up (post race clinically abnormal) at Christmas in a Grade 1 before running on from an impossible position in the Dublin Chase behind El Fabiolo last time. I expect him to be ridden a little closer here, and to benefit from a rapid tempo, and I think he has a decent chance of making the frame. And, if jumping is the watch word, who knows?

That leaves Gentleman De Mee, perhaps the most likely pace angle. The second runner for Willie Mullins and a second for JP McManus, this lad beat Edwardstone in the Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1) at Aintree two years ago and won the G1 Dublin Chase of 2023, too, so he's got plenty of class. Both of those top level scores were on the soft side of good, though it might be a lot wetter here. I just feel that, if Edwardstone also goes forward, and with any or all of Jonbon, Elixir De Nutz, Funambule Sivola and El Fabiolo snapping at his heels, he's going to be vulnerable in the last quarter of the race.

All in all, it's a fascinating renewal of the Champion Chase, and one where jumping could well decide the outcome.

Champion Chase Pace Map

Gentleman De Mee looks the most likely to take them along, with Edwardstone also expected to go forward. Elixir De Nutz could press, too, ditto El Fab or Fumble de Siv. I think they'll go quickety quick.

 

Champion Chase Selection

As mentioned, this revolves around jumping and the unconvincing athleticism of the front two in the market. El Fabiolo is clearly the best horse in the race and, if avoiding serious error, should win. But given that eight of the eleven horses sent off at odds on in the Champion Chase this century have been beaten (5/6, 4/5, 4/5, 4/6, 2/9, 2/5, 8/13, 5/6) I'm looking to back a horse each way. It's unlikely that neither of El Fab and Jonbon will fail to complete so we're probably playing for minor money; but in that context I want to oppose Edwardstone and play Captain Guinness. I feel it might set up for a midfield runner to close into tired horses and he could get into the first two, and then who knows?

Suggestion: Back Captain Guiness each way at 16/1 or so.

TIX PIX: A with couple of C's

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4.10 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Sadly, this race has been abandoned.

The Glenfarclas Chase, a cross country event contested around three ever-decreasing circles before spinning off up the straight of the main track is not everyone's cup of rosy, it's fair to say. Me, I love it, which is not to say that in recent times I've been especially successful at finding the winner. The nature of the race has changed: inaugurated as a handicap in 2005 it graduated to a conditions event in 2016 since when its become a very happy hunting ground for former - and in some cases still - high class chasers.

We're talking the likes of Cause Of Causes, Tiger Roll, and Delta Work, all of them 'medalling' in the Grand National subsequently. And all of them trained by Gordon Elliott (by proxy in one case), a man who trained a National winner before he'd trained a winner in his native Ireland. His horses jump and stay.

Delta Work is the reigning champ, having retained his crown a year ago, and bids for the three-peat (as they say across the pond - yuk). He's knocking on a bit now, eleven years young, but that didn't stop his mate Tiger Roll from bagging his own hat-trick (that's better) at the same age. When Delta Work won this last year he prepped with a 13 length 6th of eight in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan; this year he's prepped with a 15 length 6th of eight in the same race, so we all know where we are with him. He handles wet ground fine - it's wetter on the infield track than the Old and New Courses - and knows his way home blindfold around there.

But there's a ton of back class in the field this time headed by Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, and Savills and National Hunt Chase winner Galvin. Add in this year's Troytown and former Thyestes Chase winner Coko Beach and a raft of credible place contenders at least and it makes for what is very likely the deepest field in Glenfarclas history.

Minella Indo won the Gold Cup in 2021 and was second a year later; pulled up in the Blue Riband twelve months ago, his sights have been lowered considerably and he had a reconnaissance visit in the December handicap over track and trip. There he conceded a stone and a half to Latenightpass but was beaten only five lengths or so. He'd started out this season winning a Grade 3 at Punchestown but was last of the four in the Grade 1 at Down Royal after which this new plan was hatched. He stays well, has class and is proven at the track and the Festival.

Galvin probably doesn't want it too wet. Most of his best form is on a sounder surface, as when fourth in the Gold Cup two years ago; but he's raced mainly on softer recently. Indeed, he was second to Delta Work in this race a year ago and was down the field in the two handicap chases over the track/trip late last year. Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo. This has obviously been the plan all season but I'm not at all sure he can bring his A game when water wings are needed.

One who loves it deep is Coko Beach. He's officially top rated in the line up, on 161, and this season has run 3rd in the Munster National, won the Troytown, been 2nd in the Becher Chase and bolted up in the PP Hogan Cross Country Chase at Punchestown. He stays well, jumps well and handles most ground; the only thing I don't like about his profile is that it's a very un-Gordon Elliott prep for the race! That said, Tiger Roll came to the race in good form when winning his second Glenfarclas in 2019, but it's a weird niggle I can't quite shake. He's taken a few of my quids nevertheless.

Foxy Jacks has run cross country here three times and failed to get round twice, though he did win on the other occasion! That was in the November handicap last year in which the heavyweights Delta Work and Galvin both went missing, presumed not off. The winner that day was in receipt of a stone but faces those old foes off levels here. He's not for me, thanks, and nor are any of the others. Stattler, representing Willie Mullins, might take a few betting pounds but his trainer is 0 from 15, four places, over the Festival banks and barrels.

Of the remainder, I'd give Waldorf more chance than Stattler, and the rest just need to keep out of the way by and large.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map

Something at a big price will lead the dawdle until the third lap, at which point the class horses will pull on their running spikes and clear away. I think.

 

 

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection

Gordon Elliott has won six of the last seven (one of them under the pseudonym Denise Foster) Festival cross country races and has an iron grip on a bid for a seventh. And yet it's Henry de Bromhead who saddles the ante post favourite, Minella Indo. He's highly respected but not as much as Elliott's dominance - as well as six from seven winners since 2017, he's also saddled four of the second placed horses, a quite phenomenal record. Choosing between his entries is not easy and Delta Work might well be the one. But I've been drawn to Coko Beach, still relatively young at nine and in the form of his life. He's no longer an each way price so I hope he'll go very close to winning.

Suggestion: Try Coko Beach at around 4/1 in a cracking renewal.

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4.50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

Previewed by Rory Delargy. Two things to have uppermost in your mind regarding the Grand Annual are that the going is likely to be testing and tacky and that the switch back to the Old Course means that it is a kinder race for prominent racers, whereas the stiffer New Course was a benefit for hold-up horses (who can forget Paul Carberry on Bellvano).

There are lots of poorly handicapped horses in this race and it’s not hard to whittle the field down to horses well enough treated who can cope with the conditions and the Cheltenham fences. The significant gamble that such an approach rules out is Harper’s Brook, who is rated one of the best bets of the Festival by a couple of people I respect, but while he’s a talented horse, he strikes me as one of the very WORST betting propositions of the week.

Firstly, it’s well established that for all his talent he is ungenuine and has twice pulled himself up in front after trading at 1.01 on Betfair. I napped him on the latter occasion, so am unlikely to forget it. What really puts me off Harper’s Brook is his record at Cheltenham where he has raced four times without beating a single rival. I’ll be mildly surprised if he finishes the race and stunned, I tell you, STUNNED if he manages to win. I will have to lie down in a dark corner for quite a long time, in fact. A long time.

Saint Roi bids to become the seventh horse in Festival history to win a handicap over both hurdles and fences, but for a horse who was briefly ante-post favourite for the Champion Hurdle a few years back, his record since his County Hurdle win is disappointing, and his only win in his last 18 starts came back in December 2022. He’s capable of getting placed, but too expensive to follow.

Madara rates a mention as a progressive 5yo with a 3-3 record on testing ground, and he went to Ireland to spank the local handicappers at the DRF. I’m not dead against him here, but all the talk about his chances ignores the fact that he’s not only gone up 10lb for that win against largely unconvincing rivals (there really isn’t a great deal of depth to the two mile chase scene in Ireland beyond the top-class runners), but he is now not eligible for a juvenile allowance. That allowance was 6lb when he won at Cheltenham two starts back and still 3lb at Leopardstown but has now been eroded entirely. It won’t stop him, as such, but he’s effectively 19lb higher than when beating In Excelsis Deo two starts back, and I don’t think it has been factored into his price.

The two I like most are Libberty Hunter and Hardy du Seuil with the former looking really solid in the conditions. He would be unbeaten over fences but for overjumping on debut at Chepstow and has added wins at Wincanton and on the New Course here, beating Arkle hope Matata by a length in a 2m handicap in December. Those wins have come on heavy and soft ground and he coped well with the jumping test when scoring last time. Harry Cobden takes over from regular pilot Adam Wedge and that looks no negative, with the handicapper unlikely to have caught up with the son of Yorgunnablucky, who was bred by the shrewd Brian Eckley, who trained Libberty Hunter to win twice in bumpers before he was bought on behalf of the Ruckers for £160k.

Hardy du Seuil is lightly raced over fences having switched back to hurdles last season, but he has some solid form, and very much caught the eye when staying on into third behind Etalon at Sandown last month on his first start since April 2023. He was noted by m’learned friend Mr Massey as looking big and well (ie not yet fit) at Sandown, and he has a good record on his second start after a break, winning on his second start for Jamie Snowden over fences, and finishing third and first having needed his return last season.

His mark of 132 is 3lb lower than when an excellent second at Kelso on his penultimate chase start since when he has scored over hurdles, and the only time he’s been worse than second on soft ground since his debut came when a respectable seventh in the Imperial Cup last spring, with lifetime figures reading 22221723.

Grand Annual Pace Map

Always run at a harem scarem pace, and often suiting those not too far from the teeth of it, you may not want your pick to be too far back.

 

Grand Annual Selection

Suggestions: Try 13/2 Libberty Hunter, or 14/1 Hardy du Seuil
Suggested Place Lay: Harper’s Brook

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5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1, NH Flat, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk. Just when I was anticipating diving into the Coral Cup or the Grand Annual, Matt presents me with the Champion Bumper! However, upon closer inspection, it seems more like a handicap in terms of the betting.

The Festival Bumper is a good example of race trends evolving, and the trend is away from big-priced winners. Four of the last five winners were returned 7/2 or shorter and the outlier was the 11/1 Willie Mullins trained Ferny Hollow ridden by Paul Townend. All the last ten winners of the Champion Bumper where LTO winners and all of them were aged five or six.

Contenders:

A maximum field of 24 horses are set to compete in this year's renewal. Despite previous trends favouring shorter-priced horses, this year's contest appears to be wide open. The absence of a standout bumper horse from Ireland contributes to the race's unpredictability, reflected in bookmakers offering odds of 6/1 for the entire field at time of writing (Tuesday morning).

Willie Mullins fields the favourite, Jasmin De Vaux, who showcased promise with a victory at Naas on his stable debut in January. Partnered again by Patrick Mullins, he's expected to perform well. Mullins also saddles Cantico, ridden by stable jockey Paul Townend, who cruised to victory at Navan last month.

Gordon Elliott's contender, Jalon D'oudairies, boasts an unbeaten record in two bumper starts and is considered a strong prospect for the race after a victory at Leopardstown last time. He’s got a big chance. Elliott also saddles Romeo Coolio, an impressive debut winner at Fairyhouse who looks an exciting prospect for staying hurdles next season.

You Oughta Know, also trained by Mullins, heads the Racing Post Ratings but faces stiff competition from other contenders.

Fleur Au Fusil won a Naas bumper on racecourse debut and followed up in a Grade 2 mares bumper at Leopardstown last month. Given how keen she was it was notable that she was able to finish off her race as strongly as she did at Leopardstown. It’s not a total surprise that Mullins opts to apply the first time hood on the mare.

Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls' yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling's Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown. Though primarily seen as a hurdling prospect for the future, Sixmilebridge shouldn't be overlooked in this race.

Champion Bumper Pace Map

Pinch of salt pace map...

 

 

Champion Bumper selection

It looks a minefield to be honest with most of the field potential improvers.  Fleur Au Fusil caught my eye with her recent Leopardstown victory, but she'll require the hood to help settle her if she’s to get home, although the faster race tempo should also help. Both Jalon D'oudairies & Romeo Coolio, trained by Gordon Elliott, stand out as strong contenders, and it's difficult to choose between the two. Teeshan appears to be the top choice among the British runners and can secure a place, or even victory, in the race.

In the end I'm wavering between Jalon D'oudairies and Teeshan, but I've settled on the former. The 13/2 available looks fair in a race which I have priced up at 6/1 the field.

 Suggestion: 0.5pt win - Jalon D'oudairies

 

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Good luck!

Matt

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