Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day One Preview, Tips

So, here we are again. The 2026 Cheltenham Festival draws ever closer and, after a million preview nights and just as many horses tipped, we are now on the very cusp of getting answers to those thorny questions. Remember, first race is a 1.20pm kick off each day, moved last year from the traditional ten-minutes-later slot...

I'm delighted to again welcome some guest writers to help me with the thought processes - and also a guest editor so that, for the first time in 15 years or so, I can attend the Festival as a racegoer primarily. My star-studded line up consists of:

Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Rory is a veritable encyclopedia of the sport and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.

David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our very own 'Roving Reporter'. In his more recent Trackside guise, he attends most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock looking for those that might be better, or worse, than the market suggests.

Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, ever in search of a tasty data morsel or three. You'll know him well already, and it's great to have him on Festival duty.

Gavin Priestley is a former bookmaker and head of FestivalTrends.co.uk, a site dedicated to, erm, using trends to find winners at Festivals...!

They are all extremely welcome back to geegeez.

The eagle-eyed will have spotted that they are collectively four, and that there are seven races daily. I'm afraid that leaves you with my thoughts for the remaining three races daily. Every silver lining has a cloud!

 

Also, a quick reminder about our Tix competition where you can win £100 each day.

The person who gets the highest odds winning ticket wins.

Minimum total daily stake £5 to qualify.

That means it's a level playing field for smaller and larger stakes players so everyone has the same chance of winning. Tix is here.

 

 

 

1.20 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The roar of the crowd. The excitement palpable. Jumpers for goalposts, hmm? Yes it's a little trite but that collective exhortation as the tapes rise really is a thing, and a wonderful one at that. We're off for the first of 28 top class equine ding-dongs. As Lesley Phillips might have said, ding dong indeed!

To business, and the Supreme score since 2013 is Willie Mullins 6, Nicky Henderson 3, Rest of Ireland 3, Rest of UK 1. And here we have a Nicky and Willie show to kick off a day where that's a pretty strong theme. Fittingly enough, they top the market, Henderson's Old Park Star pursued closely by Mullins' Mighty Park.

Old Park Star transferred from the Ditcheat base of Paul Nicholls to Lambourn last summer, since when he's unbeaten in three widening verdicts, the most recent brace of which were a dozen length almost course and distance score and an 18 length margin in the Grade 2 Rossington Main. That form is very clearly the pick of the domestic crop, and he sets a high bar for his Irish rivals to clear. Naturally enough, he may be capable of better yet. One point worth noting is his tendency to lead in his races; not since Champagne Fever and Vautour went back to back trap to line in 2014/15 has that run style succeeded. He did come from further back on his hurdling debut so is presumably not wedded to the front.

Mighty Park will try to give a perfect start to Willie, Irish punters, and JP McManus. As runner up in a maiden point and facile (38 lengths!) scorer in a maiden hurdle, his level of ability is pretty hard to peg. Good, obviously, but how good? Who honestly knows? He got a bumper RPR for that performance but a workaday Topspeed figure, and that is a snappy little vignette of what we're grappling with here. The visual romanticists are foaming at the mouth, the cold data hearts unmoved. Either could be right and, in the end, the price makes the play... or, in this case and for this scribe, doesn't. I doubt a horse has won a Supreme off a single hurdle start in living memory, though I don't know for sure. All that said, it's fair to assume that Willie's 'A' pick for the Supreme has a rare level of talent; whether he's streetwise enough to bring all of it in a cauldron like this is extremely moot.

Much more battle hardened is Talk The Talk, representing Joseph O'Brien and the Double Green of Munir/Souede (it's never Souede/Munir, is it? I wonder how Isaac feels about that...). After a prat fall at the last when announcing himself on the big stage in a Grade 1 at Christmas, he confirmed the impression of that day when mishap-free at the same venue and in the same grade at DRF. To win from where he did in a very steadily run affair was a very taking effort and this tactically versatile five-year-old looks to have a terrific gear change allied to a high cruising speed. That's usually the combination to unlock the Supreme, and he looks a serious player.

Another to take a dive and one I'm yet to warm to is El Cairos. It was a soft enough fall on St Stephen's Day at Leopardstown, but I'm less inclined to forgive his near reprisal at the last at Thurles five weeks later. Post race, jockey Jack Kennedy was full of remorse and deflected blame from his mount to himself; but good hurdlers deal with such situations better than El C did. His bumper form - fifth in the Champion Bumper at last year's Festival and second in a Punchestown Festival equivalent - shows him to be high class, though there's nothing to jump in bumpers. Not really for me.

There was no obvious reason to my eye why Mydaddypaddy should have been a shorter price than Idaho Sun, the latter a comfy enough victor over the former in the G1 Formby. Alas Harry Fry's hope misses the Festival with a niggle. I still don't like Skelton's Mydaddypaddy who is in deeper here than at Liverpool that day and couldn't get that job done. He has a stone or so to find on RPR's with Old Park Star.

If there's to be a British winner of this which isn't Old Park Star, maybe it will be Sober Glory. Barring a very poor effort at Sandown, he's won his other five races including three over hurdles. His most recent success, sauntering away from the decent Kadastral by 27 lengths puts him in the picture. The niggle with this chap is that the one time he was beaten over hurdles - and well beaten - was when he didn't lead. He did score twice in bumpers from midfield, but it's a bit of a question nonetheless... though I didn't have that in mind when I backed him, twice, ante post!

The talking horse on the preview circuit has been Leader d'Allier, and the chat has got louder since Paul Townend elected to ride him. To be fair, Townend wouldn't have been eligible to ride JP's Mighty Park, and it must have been a straightforward pick over a 66/1 shot in Too Bossy For Us. Still, Leader d'Allier has done nothing more than win a maiden hurdle, having been second in one the time before. He did win an AQPS Grade 3 bumper in France last summer but who knows what level that is?

Going all the way back to 2009 the winner has been 12/1 or shorter on all bar one occasion, so it's very likely one of the above. The likes of Baron Noir (who actually beat El Cairos in a bumper at the Punchestown Festival last spring), Eachtotheirown (last seen winning a handicap - not the prep ahead of Supreme glory) and the aforementioned Too Bossy For Us would be big shock winners. The first named could finish in the top five, though.

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Pace Projection

This is nearly always run at a fast clip from the outset, and it might be that two horses vying for favouritism - Mighty Park and Old Park Star - also vie for the early lead. Sober Glory has also been front rank recently.

 

 

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection

The best of British, for me, are Old Park Star (obvs!) and Sober Glory, while I think Talk The Talk has much the pick of the Irish form. Mighty Park was a wow in a nothing race and the Closutton vibes are strong (whatever that means). The winner of the novice races normally steps forward on known ability and that means a number of horses could win. The most likely winner is the favourite who fully deserves top market billing; but Talk The Talk looks the proverbial 'each way bet to nothing'.

Suggestion: Try Talk The Talk each way and in a forecast underneath Old Park Star.

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Matt's Tix Pix: Tix is a smart multi-race bet placement tool that is free to use. In this race, I'll have the favourite on A as well as Talk The Talk.

 

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2.00 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

Perennially a small field but a high quality contest, the Arkle is a thrill a minute race where it usually pays to race handily. This year's even looks a match on paper between the well tested five-year-old Lulamba and his less experienced over fences older rival, Kopek Des Bordes. It also looks a match between Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins.

Henderson saddles Lulamba, mugged in last year's Triumph Hurdle before exacting revenge on his conqueror, Poniros, at Punchestown. This season (proper) he's run thrice over fences, winning by daylight each time. A beginners' chase success at Exeter was tarnished a touch by low sun meaning the omission of a number of the obstacles, but there was no decrying his facile score in a Sandown Grade 1 in early December; and he again raised his game when taking on and beating seasoned chasers in the Grade 2 Game Spirit at Newbury.

On that latter occasion, he had to knuckle down in what were testing conditions; but knuckle down he did, looking stronger at the finish than at any point theretofore. Having won a hurdle race in France prior to heading to Lambourn, Lulamba is now six from seven, the only blemish being when Cheltenham chinning in the Triumph. As a prominent racer that doesn't need to lead, the race should be run perfectly to suit. A clear round gives him every chance of adding a sixth Arkle for Henderson since Sprinter Sacre in 2012. However, his jumping thus far has been quite novicey.

But this is no procession. Mullins, with six Arkles in the bag himself since 2015, will strive for a magnificent seven via Kopek Des Bordes, last season's Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner. The roll of honour below attests to the historical advantage six- and seven-year-olds have had over younger or older adversaries. Indeed, we're back to Voy Por Ustedes in 2006 for the last winning five-year-old; he was following a then well-trodden path, with Well Chief (2004), Flagship Uberalles (1999) and Champleve (1998) all scoring for the kindergarten kids.

But how many five-year-olds have run in the race in recent years? Not many. Seven since 2018, to be precise. It should be noted that the septet includes the super-talented Majborough, who could only finish third of five as the 2-1 on favourite last year in that great finish. The mare Riviere d'Etel was beaten at 7/2, Haut En Couleurs at 6/1, Allmankind at 5/1, Fakir d'Oudairies at 3/1, and Saint Calvados at 11/4 - all since 2018. Hmm... the difference, in case you didn't know, is that prior to 2008 five-year-olds were in receipt of 5lb weight for age.

Returning to Kopek, he has his own question mark in the shape of a 113 day layoff and only the one run over fences. Only the Pipe pair of Well Chief and Western Warhorse have won the Arkle off a single prep - but that's two winners from only 14 to try since 1997, so hardly the knock it first appears for all that experience can only be beneficial. And that game mare Put The Kettle On defied a day longer layoff so there's precedent there, too. The horse himself won at both DRF and the Cheltenham Festival last season, and was likely over the top by the time he showed up at Punchestown: one drink too many. He'll be fresh as paint this time, which could present a challenge, and attempts to emulate Douvan, Altior and Shishkin as Supreme/Arkle winners on the opening day of successive Festivals. There's little between the top two, each with bags of class and ability, but each with a little bit to prove.

What of the rest? The mare Kargese is another to have won at last year's Festival, her County Hurdle score being the only handicap run of her career. She was a dual Grade 1 winner as a juvenile hurdler, at Leopardstown and Punchestown, and ran Sir Gino to three lengths in between times: in other words, she was a top class hurdler.  Ignoring a moderate enough debut over fences (where she was bashed by Kala Conti), Kargese then won her beginners' chase - beating Lovely Hurling by a length more than did Kopek Des Bordes - before just failing to reel in Romeo Coolio in the G1 Irish Arkle at DRF. A feature of her season has been her efficient jumping and she definitely fits here with the 7lb mares' allowance; she can keep the main pair more than honest.

Sam Thomas has a very good one to work with in the shape of Steel Ally, a horse we were disappointed was able to run past our own Dartmoor Pirate with such relative ease this time two years ago. Thomas's Doctor Dino gelding is now rated two and a half stone higher than he was then, and has won four more times, so we can safely say we bumped into one. He's won small field novice chases, including a Grade 2 at Ascot, with notable ease on his most recent racecourse visits and he could be a little under-rated in the market. However, his best form is all on a softer surface (form on soft or heavy: 72P12111, form on good to soft or quicker: 251232PP). Moreover, it's his misfortune that 2026 could be a vintage Arkle with a star-studded headline act and some depth to the supporting cast.

Jax Junior was a winner over further in the Grade 2 Pendil at Kempton last time, so there are no doubts about stamina or the ground - it was good to soft that day. And he's a course winner from last season, that success coming in a novice hurdle. This is probably a little too hot but he's earned a tilt at the big time after Kempton.

You can ignore Mambonumberfive's last run when well beaten in a small field by Steel Ally, because he hated the heavy ground. Prior to that he'd won all three chase starts, including the G2 Wayward Lad at Kempton. I'd say he's probably better than a 33/1 shot but that doesn't mean I want to bet him in a race as deep as this.

Hansard looks the dreaded social runner, and has Everest to scale to trouble the judge in these waters. How's that for a mixed geographical metaphor?!

Arkle Recent Winners

 

 

Arkle Pace Projection

Kargeses is the most likely leader, though Hansard did go forward last time. I'd expect both Steel Ally and Kopek des Bordes will be handy, with Lulamba not far away - assuming he can live with the early zip.

 

Arkle Chase Selection

Probably a three, rather than two, way go. Lulamba sets the clear form standard, but does he want further? Kopek Des Bordes is obviously a two-miler, as is Kargese. Kopek lacks experience, whereas Kargese has three chase runs under her belt. She might get an easy lead - Hansard the possible pace pressure - and, if getting into a good rhythm, could be a bit of value against the top two.

Suggestion: Try Kargese at around 9/2.

Matt's Tix Pix: Kargese and Kopek on A.

Check out Tix here >

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2.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

Ammes has followed a similar preparation to last year’s third, Liam Swagger. James Owen gave him three hurdle runs for a mark in the autumn, winning his first two before finishing second to leading Triumph Hurdle fancy Minella Study in the Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle at Wetherby, a race Liam Swagger won 12 months earlier.

Unlike his stablemate, Ammes failed to win on the all-weather in his prep run, but he posted a higher figure in defeat in a Class 2 handicap at Lingfield despite finishing only sixth. Timeform rate him 6lb higher on the Flat than Liam Swagger, while both they, and the BHA handicapper, have him 4lb above Liam Swagger’s mark last year, which looks fair. Owen is short of winners over jumps in recent weeks, but arrives at Cheltenham in strong form with his Flat team winning four times in the first week in March.

Saratoga represents the same connections who won this race with his half-brother Brazil (beat Gaelic Warrior) a few years ago and he prepped in a rated novice at Naas that has thrown up several winners of the Fred Winter. Not all those who won here had been successful at Naas however, and it’s worth noting that the weights for this are released after that contest. That means a few have gone in there with a view to getting a workable mark, and both Saratoga (2nd) and Munsif (3rd) caught the eye with a view to the future.

British stables have a stronger hand than usual in this, or so it appears, although the likes of Manlaga and Winston Junior have strong Irish connections. The former jumped notably well when beating Pourquoi Pas Papa in the Victor Ludorum while Winston Junior had run well behind Minella Study here before bolting up at Ascot and has been kept back for this since.

Fred Winter Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Fred Winter Hurdle Pace Projection

Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!

 

 

Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle selection

Both Winston Junior and Ammes should run well, but my preference, on a line through Minella Study, is for Ammes. He was just denied at Wetherby off levels, whereas Winston Junior was beaten 6½ lengths by Minella Study when getting 7lb at Cheltenham. Ammes comes out as comfortably the better horse, not allowing for subsequent progress all round admittedly. He is receiving 3lb from Faye Bramley’s juvenile however, which makes my choice fairly straightforward.

Suggestion: 1pt e/w Ammes @ 8/1 (Bet365 - 6 places; 7/1 general)

Matt's Tix Pix: A lot of horses across A and B!

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3.20 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

The Ultima is the first handicap chase of the meeting and in these races I find the best starting point to be the past race trends. This helps build a picture of the type of horse we normally need to look for.

This is a race where British trainers have dominated, winning every renewal since 2007. The last Irish winner was Tony Martin’s Dun Doire in 2006.

Lucinda Russell has a great record in the race having won three of the last four. In 2022 and 2023 Corach Rambler prevailed for the stable and last year it was Myretown. Previous to these successes, Lucinda saddled four other runners, priced 20/1, 28/1, 16/1 and 25/1, finishing 4th, 4th, 5th and 6th respectively.

Away from trainers, let me look at some other past trends from this race:

• Irish bred runners have made up 58% of the runners over the past 18 renewals and 88% (16) of the races have been won by Irish bred horses, showing their dominance.
• 14 of the last 18 winners finished in the first four last time out. Horses that finished 7th or worse last time out have a poor record with just 1 win from 124 runners.
• From a market perspective, 14 of the last 18 winners have come from the top five in the betting. Backing all the top five runners in the market over this timeframe would have yielded a BSP profit of £41.03 (ROI 41.9%). 9 of the last 12 were one of the top three in the betting.
• Horses wearing blinkers, cheekpieces and/or tongue ties have outperformed those wearing no headgear, so don’t be put off by if a horse is wearing equipment.
• Age wise, 7yos and 8yos have provided 66.7% of the winners, from 52% of the runners. They seem to have a slight edge.
• Past Cheltenham form is worth noting generally at the festival and that has been the case here. Previous course winners have been 1.8x more likely to win this race than horses that had not won here. Previous course winners or placed horses have been 2.5x more likely to win than horses that have not won or placed at the track.

Now let’s look at the run style data for the last 10 renewals. I personally think the previous decade for past run style analysis is a sensible time frame to use. The last 10 races give the following splits:

Although the majority of runners will race in mid division or be held up, being ridden closer to the pace has been preferable in the past, both from a win and a place perspective.

The shortlist:

Jagwar - He passes most of the key trends, but he is French bred rather than the ideal Irish bred and his run style may not be the optimum. Having said that, he seems to love Cheltenham with a course form figures of 1132. He also won at the festival last year. He tackles this trip for the first time, but the general consensus is he will stay and the vibes have been really positive from the stable. He is favourite for a reason.

Iroko - The 2025 Grand National 4th hails from the same stable as Jagwar and is currently second favourite. As with his stablemate, he is French bred but again hits most of the key trends. He is a previous winner at Cheltenham and was sent off favourite for the Grand National last year. He had found winning difficult recently, with no wins in eight runs, but he bounced back to form in December when he won the Howden Graduation Chase at Ascot.

Handstands - Trainer Ben Pauling is very sweet on this one, having been quoted as saying the horse is extremely well in here. He is an excellent trainer of handicap chasers and despite the horse’s form not being seemingly as good as last year, he looks a player dropped into handicap company. He’s likely to track the pace, which is a positive in my book.

Myretown - Last year’s winner is the only runner the stable has this time around. He’s 15lb higher now and has run poorly in two of his three subsequent starts since that success. Can’t be ruled out based on past trainer data, but not for me.

Leave Of Absence - Any 3m handicap chaser trained by Anthony Honeyball is always worth a second look. His strike rate at this sort of distance since 2022 is just shy of 20%. Leave Of Absence would ideally like the going to be good to soft or good, so should get his conditions. He looks one of the better options at bigger prices, especially looking at his penultimate run at Ascot, where he was a very good 2nd in a decent contest. Likely to be up there tracking the pace, which is another plus in all likelihood.

Ultima Recent Winners

 

 

Ultima Pace Projection

An even looking tempo overall, though a lot of perennially prominent racers may push things on from the start.

 

 

Ultima Handicap Chase Selection

Suggestion: 1pt win Jagwar & 0.5pt win Handstands

Matt's Tix Pix: A's only and not straying far from the top of the market.

Check out Tix here >

 

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4.00 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The centre piece of day one is the Champion Hurdle, an extended two mile test of speed, jumping alacrity and no little stamina. All of those components are critical, as was so quintessentially evidenced a year ago when first Constitution Hill and then State Man failed to get round. Golden Ace was a fortunate beneficiary on the day but she keeps standing up and, in so doing, keeps beating some of the best boys and girls on the block.

This year's race is an inscrutable puzzle, where we must first consider form and then fit. As we'll see, those with the numbers have something to prove on the stage, while those with the best Prestbury performances have a fair bit to do on the data.

Towards the top of the market is The New Lion, a snug fit to track and trip but with question marks on the form book. Now seven, he's won all six of his completed starts - including in the Turners twelve months ago and in a trial here in January. He was desperately unimpressive on Trials day but, to his credit, did get the job done (after odds on favourite Sir Gino stepped in a hole and had to be pulled up). The verdict was a length and a half over an 18/1 shot rated 151, with a further nose back to a 50/1 chance rated 138. That is, literally, a stone below what is required.

But how literal should we be? The problem with TNL is that he's not flashy. He never wins by far. Indeed, his margins of victory have been 4.75L, 3L, 4.75L, 0.75L, and 1.5L. Constitution Hill, by comparison, won by 22L, 17L, 14L, and 12L twice in the early part of his career. But you don't get bonus points for how far...

My issue is that he's only beaten stayers and I don't think he's fast enough. He beat Wendigo, fancied for the three mile Brown Advisory over fences; he beat The Yellow Clay, entered in the Stayers'; and he beat Nemean Lion, most of whose best form is at two and a half in a bog. The New Lion retains plenty of upside potential, but I cannot have him as the favourite even in a puzzle as wacky as this one.

Representing Team Form is Brighterdaysahead, infamously beaten twice at the Festival and famously "the best I've trained" according to Gordon, who has had many, many good ones. She was electric in beating Lossiemouth more than three lengths at the Dublin Racing Festival; but she was equally good when blitzing a weaker field by 30 lengths on her pre-Festival prep a year prior. BDA has been beaten at the last two Cheltenham Festivals, at 5/2 and 5/6, and people have said that she doesn't handle the track. That's a very credible assumption, but correlation does not imply causation. There are alternative theories...

Regarding defeat in the Dawn Run of 2024, it is unquestionably true that Jack Kennedy was eying Paul Townend, aboard perceived sole danger Jade de Grugy. While they cat-and-moused about, Lorcan Williams pulled a stealth move from the rear and Golden Ace, his very willing and able partner, charged past catching both kitty and squeaky napping.

A year later and, though we didn't know it at the time, it was to be a rematch between Golden Ace and Brighterdaysahead, both Connie and State Man failing to complete. As you can see from the replay below, BDA was stopped to a walk by State Man's last flight tumble and would otherwise have been second. However, there's no escaping the flatness of that effort when set against the main body of her work: she has five better Racing Post Ratings as a barometer of that assertion.

So what went wrong? Well, it could be the track, of course. But a viable counter theory is that she 'bounced' off a massive run at the end of December, that distance annihilation of State Man, Winter Fog et al in a G1. Failing to run to form after a career best is a common theme in racing, and it fits what happened here. I'm not saying that was the reason, but I am saying it might well have been.

 

 

If that was the case, though, we have another small issue: Brighterdaysahead again ran mightily in that tough G1 at DRF where she showed Lossiemouth her capable derriere. That was a mere 37 days ago and it is far from inconceivable she has again left her Champion Hurdle chance on the outskirts of Dublin. Nevertheless, she does have the best form in the race.

Lossiemouth had a similarly hard race in defeat that day and, furthermore, I've convinced myself that she needs two and a half miles. Indeed, Rich Ricci's racing manager was quoted on Nick Luck's poddie as saying, "I think everyone agrees she's better at two and a half miles." So it's pretty reckless - or ballsy - stuff to run her in the championship two mile race when it's not her best trip. I'm pretty sure that a steadily run three miles, such as often transpires in the Stayers' Hurdle, would be ideal for her, and I think connections have missed a trick in not considering her for that race.

In her favour is bombproof course form, having won the Triumph (2m1f, I know), and the Mares' Hurdle twice. Soft ground is definitely beneficial to her cause, but even in an unfathomable year she's not for me for all that she's the one which brings both form and some sort of fit to the party. My feeling, or at least the way I want to bet, is that either strongest form or strongest fit wins the day; and if you take my trip reservation to heart she is a compromise on both. Cheek pieces are added this time, in a bid to sharpen her up; but a horse that cannot go faster, cannot go faster. She'll be an 'egg on face' winner in these quarters.

We need to talk more about Golden Ace, another with a perfect fit but slightly questionable form credentials. It's hard to crab a mare that has two upset Festival scores on her card, and that is yet to be out of the first two in eight races at around two miles (11112212). And she deserves all the plaudits for twice passing Brighterdaysahead up this hill. Indeed, bar a match race at Wetherby (where she was found to be not right subsequently), she's only been beaten by State Man and Sir Gino at this range over hurdles. Neither of that pair can attend this year, unfortunately, and if there is one horse in the line up that looks nailed on to run their race - to be fair, there may not even be one, it's that sort of year! - it's her. She will be very hard to kick out of the frame for all that it feels like we should be trying to get her off the top step of the podium.

This game is about opinions, and my opinion is that Poniros is as bogus as they come. He would need five horses to under-perform, or to improve a stone near enough, to win the Champion Hurdle. I've already outlined how each of the top fancies might under-perform, but it's very difficult to see them all failing to deliver. This lad fell in by some miracle in the Triumph Hurdle, at 100/1, and has failed to back it up twice since. A four length reversal of form at the hooves of Lulamba reads well enough in terms of four-year-old hurdle lines, but he was 14 lengths behind Brighterdaysahead last time.

It's true that he might have had less of a hard race than either BDA or Lossie there, and that he might be better on better ground, and that Tony Bloom has golden sphericals... but this would rate as one of Willie's gweatest wabbits fwom a hat if he could win the Champion with a five-year-old that has only had three hurdles starts, two of them defeats.

The handicappers Alexei and Tutti Quanti will try to 'do a Rooster Booster', that horse emerging from the weight-for-ability ranks to take the Blue Riband. In Rooster's case, however, he'd won the County Hurdle the year before and had been running in conditions races - up to G1 level - for a full season by the time he reappeared at the Festival. Alexei - "Ullo John, gotta new motor?" (I fully appreciate a lot of these yesteryear references will be lost on many, here's the video which I think is worth the telepathic joke before the 'song') - was alextric at Cheltenham in the Greatwood Hurdle in November, cruising through the race against 17 rivals and charging away at the finish.

He might have still been feeling that a touch when only third off top weight in an Ascot G3 handicap at Christmas; and on his most recent run he showed the legs were still in each corner with a satisfactory defeat of good old stick Rubaud in the Kingwell. A rating of 150-odd gives him plenty still to find with the pick of the mares once their allowance is factored in; only six, if he can keep progressing he could be next year's man. I did back him for this after the Greatwood at a bigger price than he is now, but I don't especially think he has a better chance than at that time.

Tutti Quanti also steps out of handicap company; actually, to give him his due, he bounds out having demolished the Schweppes/Betfair/William Hill Hurdle field by 15 lengths last time, a performance that has nudged his official peg up to 151. To give some context, Brighterdaysahead is 160 on the Irish scale, Lossiemouth 159 on the same - both also receive 7lb sex allowance. The New Lion is 159, Poniros 153 (Ire), Anzadam 153 (Ire), Golden Ace 152 (gets 7lb), Alexei 148, and Workahead 145. Phew.

The point I'm making here is that, assuming at least one of the main trio performs to their level (not a given), Tutti Quanti needs to progress another 10lb. He's only six so that's conceivable but often what knocks the eye out - as his last day win did - fails to pass the sniff test, to mix my sensory metaphors. Moreover, TQ's best form has been on rain softened ground.

And Mullins still has the, erm, mercurial - yes, let's call him mercurial - Anzadam card to play. He's been notoriously difficult to train but, seemingly sounder this campaign, was second to Golden Ace in the Fighting Fifth and then fourth behind Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth in their two Leopardstown Grade 1's. What makes him worth a second glance is that he probably had the easiest - or least hard - race in the Irish Champion Hurdle at DRF and it could be contended that his best form is on a sound surface. In a race where we're making excuses for just about all of them, that doesn't feel like too much of a stretch.

Workahead is saddled by the best Festival trainer of the last five years not called Willie, but even Henry's magic won't be enough to get this lad up the hill in front second time around.

 

Champion Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Champion Hurdle Pace Projection

A few that can go forward but none that need the lead; so my guess is a solid even gallop - fair for all.

 

 

Champion Hurdle Selection

This is so difficult. Brighterdaysahead has the best two mile form but reservations remain about her Cheltenham runs as well as how hard a race she had last time; ditto Lossiemouth on the last day exertion and her best form is over further and possibly on softer. The New Lion hasn't run a number to be the price he is though he remains completely unexposed; and Golden Ace is a mare we're all trying to get beaten in spite of her running her race every time.

I have managed to discount Poniros and Workahead, but small bits of each way cases can be made for each of Alexei, Tutti Quanti and especially Anzadam.

Suggestion: It's as much of a no bet race as ever there was; but that's not in the spirit of things. I'd chance Brighterdaysahead from the head of the market, and maybe play Anzadam each way for the minimum stake your bookmaker will accept.

Matt's Tix Pix: Lossiemouth, Golden Ace and The New Lion on A, Brighterdaysahead on B. Not confident!

Check out Tix here >

 

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4.40 Festival Plate (Class 1 handicap, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley.

There's been just one horse on my mind for this race since October and it's a Dan Skelton runner that has been in woeful form for most of the season. He began the year putting up a remarkable performance that really caught my eye, when he won at lowly Newton Abbot, and I’m banking on a return to form here.

Previously, he had won a Grade 3 Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham April meeting and finished 4th in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen last year, before winning that Intermediate Chase at Newton Abbot.

And that's where his struggles began. It turns out that beating a 12lb superior runner on ratings and long odds on favourite (Blueking d'Oreaux) while actually giving that rival 12lb(!) doesn't help your handicap mark too much. Who knew?!

Dan Skelton does now, but he has been doing a great job rectifying his mistake and getting Riskintheground back down to the same 137 mark he won that Grade 3 Handicap Chase at Cheltenham's April meeting last year. He also ran 7th in a big Novice Handicap at Sandown and 4th in the Summer Plate off 139, between Cheltenham and Newton Abbot.

After his surprise Newton Abbot win he was put up to 145, but was 3lb well in thanks to a penalty when probably not staying the 3m2f in the big handicap chase at Newbury (formerly the Hennessey) on his next start. He will be better suited to the drop back to 2m5f here.

He then made a bad mistake at the third last on his following run at Cheltenham, off his true 145 mark, before weakening in the last half furlong. Back down to 142, Dan Skelton ran him on soft ground at Cheltenham on Trials Day, where he finished second last to get another 2lb reduction to 140.

The next piece of the master plan was running him on heavy ground at Newbury in the Grade 2 Denman Chase. Despite being the clear lowest rated runner in the field, he had to give two of the four runners weight. He carried the same weight as 164 rated L'Homme De Presse and actually gave 2lb to the eventual winner (and Gold Cup bound) Haiti Coleurs. Unsurprisingly, he ended up finishing a (tailed off) last of 4.

But alas, the handicapper wasn't buying it and left his rating unchanged at 140. That probably didn't please Skelton too much, as he's repeatedly said he doesn't think the horse has anything in hand at the moment. He declared him to run in the Ascot Chase but took him out at the 48 hour declarations, as he probably thought the handicapper wouldn't drop him a pound even if he finished tailed off again. I doubt he wanted to risk another slog in the mud this near to the Festival.

So he sent him to Kempton instead for the Ladbrokes Handicap Chase, where he finished tailed off there instead. This time the handicapper was a believer and dropped him the last 2lbs to leave him on a very eyecatching 137. Dan Skelton was last seen patting himself on the back. Phase 1 complete!

Festival Plate Recent Winners

 

 

Festival Plate Pace Map

 

 

Festival Plate Selection

Given the better Spring ground (barely beaten a rival on his last three runs on soft/heavy), the return to Cheltenham and the Skelton magic, I’m banking on Riskintheground being ready to go on Tuesday. This is coming up to his time of year and I see him running a big race for a stable who are really beginning to focus on these Festival handicaps. I think it's been the plan all season.

Suggestion: Riskintheground - 0.5 points each way at 40/1

Matt's Tix Pix: Five on A, and five more on B. At least!

Check out Tix here >

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5.20 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)

Previewed by David Massey.

Sue Smith knows what it takes to train a Festival handicap winner, as demonstrated with Mister McGoldrick & Vintage Clouds. Her expertise, along with the partnership with her grandson Joel Parkinson that has seen an uptick in the yard’s fortunes this year, mean Grand Geste gets my vote here.

Bar a blip at Doncaster, when he just wasn’t right for whatever reason, he’s improved with each start this season. He was very impressive when winning the Tommy Whittle at Haydock back in December, putting in an excellent round of jumping from the front and beating a resurgent My Silver Lining by six and a half lengths.

The way he came clear in the straight suggested stamina was his strong suit, and he did nothing to dispel that suspicion when winning the Grand National Trial back at Haydock last month, for all that turned into more of a speed test than is normally the case. In fact, I’d mark him up a bit for having the tactical speed to cope that day, and a 6lb rise looks more than fair.

Good to soft ground, usually a certainty for Day One (barring an unexpected downpour on the day), seems to suit him very well. Plus, this is a partnership that knows how to train staying chasers, with the likes of O’Connell and Konfusion winning for them in extreme tests this season.

Walking On Air, who has finished fifth in a Pertemps Final here in 2023 and last year was midfield in the Kim Muir (when arguably not getting the best of rides), has to be of some interest too. After a couple of poor efforts this year, it was much better at Doncaster last time. The addition of some cheekpieces seemingly the catalyst in finishing third to Dartmoor Pirate, not knocked around late on by Brian Hughes. He’ll need the headgear to work again, but is nicely treated, and will have been teed up to a nicety by Faye Bramley here. Harry Cobden was booked to ride a few days ago, and that's hardly a negative to his chances either.

On paper, Backmersackme is the best of the Irish challenge and does have a decent piece of Cheltenham chase form to his name, having finished second to Three Card Brag here back in October. After a ready win in a Grade 3 Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, the handicapper has reacted with a 10lb rise. There’s no Sean Bowen to help out this time either, with Sean being claimed by Olly Murphy to ride top weight Wade Out. Indeed, his pilot on Tuesday, Donagh Meyler, does not have the best of form figures on Backmersackme, reading 664546, which hardly inspires confidence in a bet at the price.

From the Irish runners, I think I’d rather have Paul Nolan’s Iceberg Theory as he does have quite a few plus points. Not least his form over fences this season, which has seen him win two of his three starts. That form couldn’t have worked out much better either. He beat Gordon Elliott’s Boston Rover at Limerick last May and the runner-up went and won his next three before finding sticky ground at Limerick not to his liking. He then went and beat the useful O’Toole at Cork in November after a break, that form franked when the second won the Listed QuinnBet Handicap Chase at Leopardstown last week.

He goes well fresh, seems to act on any ground, and remains unexposed as a staying chaser. Plenty to like at twice the price and more of Backmersackme.

National Hunt Chase Recent Winners

NB This race was a non-handicap before 2025.

 

 

National Hunt Chase Pace Projection

 

 

National Hunt Chase Selection

Selection: Grand Geste @ 14/1 general

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That's how I, along with the guest brains, see Tuesday's action. Seven very open races so it's entirely feasible we miss our mark - enjoy the ride, and caveat emptor, dear reader.

Stay lucky
Matt