Previews, tips and trends for major horse racing fixtures across the UK. Detailed day-by-day reports and info on horses, races, courses, events and more.
2025 Winner: THE NEW LION (3/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 19 of the last 21 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 8 of the last 12 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• 13 of the last 17 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
• 21 of the last 25 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
• 25 of the last 31 winners won last time out
• 30 of the last 31 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• The Irish have won 15 of the last 23 (10 of last 12)
• Horses rated 150+ do well
• 14 of the last 17 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
• 26 of the last 31 winners (including last 14) had won at least one bumper race
• 19 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 6
• In the last 14 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 29 of the 42 top 3 places
• 25 of the last 27 were NH bred
• Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (9 of the last 15 had won an Irish Point)
• Respect Willie Mullins – 7 winners in last 18 years (5 of the last 12)
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
• Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times (1993, 2004, 2013)
Negatives….
• Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
• Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
• Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 60 (since 1988)
• Only two of the last 39 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 21 of the last 22 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten – The New Lion (2025) bucked the trend
• Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten 0 from 31 in the last 19 years)
• The last 24 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
• 18 of the last 19 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
• 27 of the last 31 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
• Respect 7 year-olds – won 16 of the last 19 (21 of last 26)
• 14 of the last 20 winners won last time out
• 8 of the last 16 winners were beaten on their chase debut
• 9 of the last 18 winners had won a bumper before
• 9 of the last 19 favourites won
• 16 of the last 19 winners aged 7
• The last 11 winners were rated 150+
• 12 of the last 14 winners returned single-figures in the betting
• 22 of the last 25 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
• Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
• Irish bred horses are 23 from the last 29
• 13 of the last 19 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
• 9 of the last 17 winners were trained in Ireland
• Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins (7 wins) and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (12 of the last 21 between them)
• Willie Mullins has trained 3 of the last 5 winners
• 27 of the last 33 were novice hurdling last season
• 7 of the last 16 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (57 of the last 59 winners had)
• 14 of the last 19 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
• 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
Negatives….
• No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
• Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
• Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
• Just 4 of the last 26 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
• No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
• French bred horses are 2-from-46 (last 18 years, but the 2022 winner L’Homme Presse and 2024 winner Fact To File were French-breds)
• The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 14 years
• Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 26 winners)
• Mares are currently 0-from-12 in the race (last 28 runnings)
• Horses in headgear have a poor record
• Drinmore Novice Chase winners are 0-10
• Gordon Elliott runners are 0-11 since 2011
2025 Winner: JIMMY DU SEUIL (16/1) Trainer – Willie Mullins Jockey – Danny Mullins UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 13 of the last 21 were 2nd season hurdlers
• 19 of the last 25 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
• 13 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before (11 had top 4 finish)
• 12 of the last 16 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
• 12 of the last 17 winners were rated in the 140’s
• 16 of the last 26 winners aged 6 or 7
• 12 of the last 16 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 15 of the last 20 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
• 21 of the last 31 winners won earlier that season
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners
• Respect trainers Dan Skelton (2 of last 3), Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (9 wins in last 16 years)
• 11 of the last 24 winners were French-Bred
• 15 of the last 32 won last time out
• Respect Irish-trained runners (8 of the last 17)
• Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (15 of last 17 winners)
• 18 of the last 21 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott was won 3 of the last 15 runnings
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 12 (4 in total)
• 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
• 4 of the last 7 winners wore headgear
• The last 29 winners aged 9 or younger
• The last 10 year-old winner in 1995
Negatives….
• Just one winning favourite in the last 22 years (2020)
• Only 6 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 313 to even place since 1999
• Just 6 winners since 2000 aged 8+
• Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 & 2025, plus had the second in 2019, but overall has an average record – 56 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (2 wins Jimmy Du Seuil 2025 & Bleu Berry, 2018)
3:20 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV
Note: From 2025 this race was run back as a handicap after 8 years run as a conditions race
Pluses….
• The Irish have won 17 of the last 20 runnings
• Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
• 17 of the last 20 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 23 of the last 27 winners came from the top three in the betting
• 11 of the last 20 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
• 14 of the last 20 ran in either the Nov or Dec Cross Country races
• 16 of the last 20 winners had run on the course before
• Respect jockey Keith Donoghue (5 wins in total)
• 16 or the last 20 winners were aged 10 or younger
• 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8 or 9
• Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 13 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 8 runnings
• 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
• 10 of the last 20 winners had run in the NH Chase before
• 6 of the last 10 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
• 7 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
• 9 of the last 12 winners wore a tongue-tie
Negatives….
• Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but the 2022 winner Delta Work was running for the first time over the X-Country course
• Just 4 of the last 15 winners won their last race
• Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 101, but the 2020 winner was aged 6
• Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 17
• Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
2025 Winner: MARINE NATIONALE (5/1) Trainer – Barry Connell Jockey – Sean Flanagan UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 13 of the last 25 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
• 4 of the last 13 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
• 26 of the last 41 had won at the Festival before
• Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 26 between them
• The last 5 winners were trained in Ireland
• Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 14
• 31 of the last 39 winners aged between 7-9
• 50% of the last 12 winners ran in the Shloer Chase (Cheltenham)
• 14 of the last 24 winners won last time out
• 15 of the last 20 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 20 of the last 23 winners had run that calendar year
• 42 of the last 44 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
• 18 of the last 26 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 9 of the last 19 winners were French-bred
• 13 of the last 23 winners were second season chasers
• 18 of the last 20 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
• 23 of the last 27 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 18 of the last 26 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
• 7 of the last 14 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
• Past champions do well – 14 horses have won the CC more than once
Negatives….
• Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 40 years
• Just 1 winner in last 21 had run 4+ times that season
• Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
• Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 2 wins in the race (Energumene 2022 & 2023)
• Just 3 of the last 24 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
• Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
• Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-6 (last 2 winners beaten in that DRF race)
• Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 50 years
• Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 46 years
• 7 of the last 8 odds-on favourites have lost (over the last 10 years)
• Just one mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)
================================================
The 2026 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
£4 Discount With Promo Code: RTCFBG26
Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.
Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.
• 8 of the last 12 winners carried 11st or more
• 18 of the last 22 winners had run at the Festival before
• 8 of the last 22 winners ran in the previous year’s renewal
• Irish have won 6 of the last 13 runnings
• 11 of the last 16 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 17 winners were novices or second season chasers
• 13 of the last 20 winners aged between 6-8
• 14 of the last 22 winners were aged 8 or older
• Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
• Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 22
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 12 placed)
• 13 of the last 15 winners were rated at least 138
• 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
• Novices have won 7 of the last 17 runnings
• 5 of the last 11 winners won after a 91+ day break
• 12 of the last 14 winners were rated between 135-147
• 12 of the last 15 winners rated between 138-150
• 8 of the last 12 winners carried 11st or more in weight
• 22 of the last 26 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
• Course form is often a big plus
Negatives….
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 33 runnings, but the 2022 winner was a 10 year-old
• Trainer Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Last time out winners are just 1 from last 18
• Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 2 from 37 since 2005 – but last year’s winner Jazzy Matty was 6 and returned 15/2
• Only 2 of the last 21 winners were favourites
• Just 3 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
• Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record
5:30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV
• 31 of the last 33 had won last time out (all of last 22)
• 26 of the last 33 winners trained in Ireland
• Respect Irish-trained runners (26 from 42)
• 24 of the last 33 came from the top 6 in the betting
• 25 of the last 33 were Irish-bred
• 13 of the last 25 winners were second season horses
• 19 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 22 of the last 33 winners aged 5 years-old
• 22 of the last 24 had their debut runs in Ireland
• 12 of the last 23 had been beaten in a race before
• 6 of the last 16 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
• Respect Willie Mullins (14 winners) – 5 of the last 6
• The Irish lead the British 27-7 in the race history
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
• 14 of the last 23 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• Mares are 4-23 in the last 20 runnings (Total Enjoyment, Fayonagh, Relegate, Bambino Fever)
• 8 of the last 10 winners had run in February
• 3 of the last 7 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud
Negatives….
• Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
• Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
• Just 2 of the last 15 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
• Only 4 of the last 15 winners were won by UK-based trainers
• 4 year-olds are 1 from 71 since 2000 (Cue Card)
• Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/PremierMagic_CheltenhamFestival2023.png319830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-08 06:00:282026-03-08 09:49:112026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 11th March 2026)
Each day of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival for you!
Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 17 of the last 21 winners had won at Cheltenham before.
While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize that Teahupoo won in 2024 and is a red-hot favourite to win back his crown.
You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2026 below.
2025 Winner: AIR OF ENTITLEMENT (16/1) Trainer – Henry de Bromhead Jockey – Rachael Blackmore UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• A new race (Just 10 renewals)
• All 10 winners aged 5 or 6
• 7 of the last 10 winners trained in Ireland, but 3 of last 4 UK trained
• Favourites have won 3 of the 10 runnings
• 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
• 8 of the 10 winners had won over 2m2f or further
• 4 of the 10 winners were French-bred
• 5 of the last 10 winners were top or 2nd top rated
• 5 of the last 10 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 5 of the last 10 past winners started their careers in France
• 6 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
• 6 of the 10 winners were unbeaten that season
• 4 of the 10 winners have been aged 5 years-old
• 6 of the last 10 winners aged 6 (LAST 6)
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
• Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 10 runnings
Negatives….
• British trained runners are 3-from-71
• Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-12
• Gordon Elliott is 0-9
• JP McManus owned are 0-from-12
• 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-26
• 4 year-olds are 0-9
2025 Winner: CALDWELL POTTER (7/1) Trainer – Paul Nicholls Jockey – Harry Cobden UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 13 of the last 17 winners aged 6 or 7
• 14 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 2 last time
• 11 of the last 17 winners were a single-figure price
• 9 of the last 15 winners were previous bumper or point winners
• 4 of the last 9 winners ran in the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase on Trials Day
• 12 of the last 13 winners British-trained
• 6 of the last 17 winners ran over hurdles at last year’s Festival
• 15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 11 of the last 12 winners rated 137+
• 10 of the last 17 winners had only won once over fences
• 7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-7 or more
• Brian Hughes has a good record (2 wins from just 5 rides)
• 10 of the last 11 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• The last 11 winners carried 11-2 or more
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race twice
Negatives….
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners didn't finish in the top 3 last time out
• Just 1 on the last 17 winners had won more than two chase races
• Only 2 of the last 17 winners aged 8 or older
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners aged 5
• Only 2 of the last 17 winners Irish-trained
• Follow Irish-trained mares (15 of last 18)
• The favourite (or 2nd fav) has won 14 of the last 18 runnings
• 11 of the last 18 favourites have won
• 14 of the last 18 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
• 16 of the last 18 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• Willie Mullins has trained 11 of the last 18 winners
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• 11 of the last 18 winners had won or placed at a previous Festival
• Novices generally do well
• 13 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 14 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 11 renewals
• 14 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 18 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males
• 13 of the last 18 won last time out
• Rich Ricci mares are 4-10 in the last 11 runnings
Negatives….
• Avoid front-runners
• Winners of the previous season Dawn Run Mares’ Novice Hurdle (0-5)
• British-bred mares are currently 3-90
• Just 3 outright favourites in the last 11 runnings
• Just one winner from last 34 runners wearing headgear have won
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
• Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
• Just 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)
2025 Winner: BOB OLINGER (8/1) Trainer – Gordon Elliott Jockey – Rachael Blackmore UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 15 of the last 21 won last time out
• 7 of the last 12 winners were second season hurdlers
• 22 of the last 26 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 31 of the last 36 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
• 19 of the last 25 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 19 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures in the betting
• 10 of the last 24 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 8 of the last 19 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
• 21 of the last 26 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 17 of the last 29 winners won or placed at the Festival before
• 16 of the last 21 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race
• 19 of the last 29 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
• 3 of the last 8 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Since 1987 all winners bar Bob Olinger (10) and Sire Du Berlais (11) aged 9 or younger
Negatives….
• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
• Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (Nicholls Canyon 2017 and Penhill 2016)
• The Irish have won the race just 8 times since 1995 (but have won the last 5)
• Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 36 runnings
• Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since1986 (1 from 70) - 2023 year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (11)
================================================
The 2026 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
£4 Discount With Promo Code: RTCFBG26
Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.
Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.
2025 Winner: FACT TO FILE (6/4 fav) Trainer – Willie Mullins Jockey – Mark Walsh UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 17 of the 21 winners had won at Cheltenham before
• 8 of the last 13 winners were 2nd season chasers
• All 18 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
• 14 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 15 of the last 18 had won or placed at the Festival before
• The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (8 from 32)
• The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
• 17 of the last 21 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
• 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 16 of the last 17 aged 7-9 years-old
• 17 of the last 18 winners were rated 161+
• Horse rated 170+ are 4-6
• 4 of the last 21 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
• 15 of last 21 winners were fav or 2nd fav
• 11 of the last 18 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 18 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 10 of the last 14 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls, Henry de Bromhead, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time headgear (3 from 13)
• 12 of the last 18 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Last 12 winners were French-bred
• All winners ran 5 or less times that season
• 6 of the last 10 winners trained by Willie Mullins
• Last 14 winners aged 9 or younger
• The Irish have won 8 of the last 10 runnings
• Since upgraded, the last 18 winners ALL ran at the previous season’s Festival (2008)
• All 18 winners (since becoming Grade 1) won over minimum of 2m4f
Negatives….
• Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
• No winner aged 11 or older
• Only 1 of the last 17 winners aged 10
• Just one winner rated 160 or below
• Just 6 of the last 18 won last time out
• Gordon Elliott runners 0-8
• No winner was having their Festival debut
2025 Winner: DODDIETHEGREAT (25/1) Trainer – Nicky Henderson Jockey – Brian Hughes UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• Irish have won the last 7 of last 10 runnings
• 13 of the last 14 winners aged 8 or younger
• Last 14 winners carried 10st-9lbs+ - with 12 10st 11lbs
• 10 of the last 18 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 13 of the last 25 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 15 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 14 of the last 19 winners were rated between 131-142 (inc)
• 12 of the last 15 winners were rated between 138-148
• 12 of the last 21 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 9 of the last 14 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 6 of the last 13 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
• 9 of the last 12 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 25 winners won their last race
• 6 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 3 of the last 17 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
• Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 11 runnings (had 1st & 2nd last year)
• Respect horses with headgear (10 since 2000) and 9 of the last 10
• 9 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie
• 7 of the last 10 winners Irish-trained
• 6 of the last 10 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)
Negatives….
• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
• Only 2 winning favourites in last 20 years
• Just 1 winner in the last 42 years aged 10+
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Paul Nicholls is currently 1 from 21 (One winner, One third and two 2nds in the last 12 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 59
5:30 - Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV
2025 Winner: DAILY PRESENT (12/1) Trainer – Paul Nolan Jockey – Mr B T Stone UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• Respect horses aged between 7-9 year-olds
• 10 of the last 13 winners aged 7-8
• 13 of the last 18 winners failed to win earlier that season
• 11 of the last 18 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 10 of the last 14 winners rated between 137-143
• 6 of the last 7 winners were novices
• 10 of the last 16 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
• 14 of the last 17 winners carried 11st 4lbs+
• 12 of the last 17 winners ran in February
• Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 20 of the last 26 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 9 of the last 15 winners wore headgear
• 5 of the last 11 winners wore a tongue-strap
• 14 of the last 17 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019 and 2024
• Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (4 of the last 14)
• 21 of the last 23 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Negatives….
• Just 8 Irish winners in last 42 years (but have won 8 of the last 12)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 25
• Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race (never won it)
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record – but last year’s winner 10-7
• Just on winning 6yold since 1971
• French breds are 1 from 95 since 2005
• Just 2 of the last 21 winners aged 10+
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 4 from 119 since 2009
• Just 2 of the last 23 winners won last time out
• Patrick Mullins has never ridden the winner
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/PaisleyPark_Cleeve_830x320.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-08 05:00:522026-03-08 09:49:432026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 12th March 2026)
It was with the usual excitement that I headed west from Hackney to the monied enclaves of Kensington for an evening of Cheltenham chat with a panel of bona fide experts at the London Racing Club's annual Cheltenham Festival Preview night.
The panel was comprised of Racing TV's 'Road to Cheltenham' voice, Lydia Hislop (LH); stats, trends and form judge, Matt Tombs (MT); BetVictor rep and co-host of Sky Sports Racing's Friday night show, Sam Boswell (SB); with LRC President and Racing Post chief correspondent Lee Mottershead (LM) doing the steering.
Below is my impression of their thoughts, hopefully faithfully reproduced.
[NB Since the evening a few non-runners have emerged - note those as you scan through...]
Tuesday
Supreme
LH – Strong Supreme. It might be that Willie Mullins horses step forward notably here?
Will be strongly run race. Mighty Park has a bit to prove.
Talk The Talk jumped better at DRF but quicker ground may put hurdling under pressure – jumping improving, made up ground off slow pace impressively.
MT – Old Park Star most likely winner but his price is tight enough.
Think TTT should run in Turners.
Against El Cairos.
Sober Glory interesting but might need to lead. Leader d’Allier is a Townend connection. He could be value.
So too Idaho Sun, who beat Mydaddypaddy on merit in Formby. Strongly run race should suit, each-way price.
SB – OPS will be taken on by bookmakers on the day. Idaho Sun is the wise guy horse – each-way angle into the race.
Arkle
SB – Kopek des Bordes worst result of the week right now, don’t really get the weakness of Lulamba.
MT – Once raced horses can win the Arkle. 2/8 this century and two others were no-hopers. Irish Arkle may have left a mark on Kargese / Romeo Coolio.
LH – Very deep Arkle. Lulamba very good but vulnerable. Which are likely to be QMCC contenders next year? KdB, maybe Kargese. But Lulamba / Romeo Coolio look more like King George types. Prefer KdB.
LM – If there was still a 2m4f G1, Lulamba / Romeo Coolio would be in there. So the race changes seem to be working.
Champion Hurdle
LH – Lossiemouth might go this way and could wear cheekpieces if she does (acc. to Rich Ricci). Brighterdaysahead & Lossiemouth might have had hard races at DRF (93% finishing speed). Golden Ace looks sure to run her race.
SB – The New Lion won’t be favourite on the day if Lossie runs. Not sure about his jumping at championship speed. Poniros might be the angle.
MT – Not sure Lossie will run. Don’t think she looks happy in fast run 2m. Want to take on TNL, unknown quantity. Opposable at the price. Backed BDA but cooled a bit, hard race LTO. Might have a stab at Alexei at big price.
Tuesday Handicaps
LH – "Iroko wins the Ultima". Think he’s got a very strong chance.
SB – Western Junior playable for the Fred Winter if landing there.
Wednesday
Queen Mother Champion Chase
LH – Big prices: Libberty Hunter and Only By Night if they go this way. Non-runner no bet (NRNB).
MT – Jonbon probably not running in QMCC. Cannot have L'eau du Sed or Il Etait Temps. Freshness angle totally overplayed with the former. In the 'without Majborough' market, Quilixios goes well fresh.
SB – Majborough might be a be tricky watch at odds-on. Have a look at the 'without' market at the big prices.
Turners
MT – Mighty Park should maybe come here because easier to win Turners off one run. Didn’t hit the line that hard on his debut. This race is perfect for Talk The Talk; if not TTT, King Rasko Grey and/or Skylight Hustle. Mullins first string often wins, but his other runners have never won this race.
LH– Mighty Park never been under pressure at a hurdle, so this might be the race for him. Quite keen on No Drama This End and prefer Skylight Hustel over Ballyfad. But no strong view.
SB – Feel like No Drama This End might drift on the day, seems to be a weakness around Paul Nicholls' horses these days. Doctor Steinberg: traders thought he’d come here rather than Albert Bartlett.
Brown Advisory
SB – Final Demand looks short against The Big Westerner. Wendigo might be nap of the meeting. Tactically made for this race, think he’s a cracking horse.
LH – Not attracted by Final Demand. Can’t have Romeo Coolio at 3m1f. This race is now ½f further and over one more fence. Koktail Divin won’t stay. Like The Big Westerner ("really good chance") and Wendigo from last year’s Albert Bartlett.
MT – Not Final Demand. WPM not happy with him all season apparently. Don’t like headgear / Kaid d’Authie. Western Fold could run well on decent ground but he’s vulnerable to an improver. Oscar’s Brother a possible, but agree that The Big Westerner & Wendigo look value.
Cross Country
MT – Favori de Champdou looks good, won Trials Day race and goes on any ground. Stumptown might still have his hard Velka Pardubicka run in his legs. Favori de Champdou looks the most likely winner of a handicap all week.
Other races
LH – Grand Annual– Henry de Bromhead (HdB) Inthepocket and possibly Downmexicoway. Jazzy Matty could defend his crown though repeat winners are rare. Libberty Hunter also on the radar.
SB – Champion Bumper – Bass Huntermight run well, and maybe Wilde's Legacy.
Thursday
Mares' Hurdle
SB – Lossiemouth will be very short if she comes here. Wodhooh short if Lossie goes Champion Hurdle.
LH – Jade de Grugy is the bet NRNB. Only runs here if Lossie goes CH. Comparable form to Wodhooh. Lossie was a bit flat in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time.
MT – Back Jade de Grugy NRNB here andfor the Mares' Chase. Gordon Elliott apparently makes Wodhooh his nap of the meeting.
Stayers’ Hurdle
LH – Fascinating race. Teahupoo too short but no worries re ground. Honesty Policy progressive but long walk form not great; Kabral du Mathan may have too much pace for 3m. Bob Olinger still has a chance even aged 11: Cheltenham and drying ground will suit. Coming round to Ma Shantou. Cannot have Ballyburn for anything: he just seems out of love with the game.
MT – Largely agree with LH. Want to take on the old guard with three young guns. Not keen on Kabral du Mathan. Honesty Policy has achieved a lot in a short time – has star potential but missed his prep race (Boyne Hurdle). Also warming to Ma Shantou, who’s still a touch of value for the Paisley Park yard of Emma Lavelle.
SB – Been too dismissive of Ma Shantou who looks playable e/w. Bob O will be thereabouts again.
Ryanair
LH – Think Fact To File runs here and Gaelic Warrior goes Gold Cup. Really impressed with FtF in the Irish Gold Cup. Whichever of FtF/GW turns up here probably wins. Banbridge has a chance but not of the calibre of FtF/GW.
MT – Banbridge clear pick behind FtF/GW. Banbridge could be e/w against the top of the market.
Other races
SB – Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle – Old School Outlaw negative vibes but Gordon Elliott adamant she's fine. Bambino Fever could end up a bit of a punter banker for Thursday. La Conquiere interesting e/w at a big price.
LH – Charme de Faust probably coming here. Don’t see the argument for Bambino Fever to beat Old School Outlaw after their run last time. Good race, other players in here. OSO if trainer is happy with her.
Jack Richards
LH - Meetmebythesea “best bet of the meeting”. Trainer Ben Pauling didn’t deny he has a great chance.
MT – Regent’s Stroll if Harry Cobden rides. Almost always a top of the market race where a G1 horse emerges. Look for the class horse in the field.
LH – Kim Muir - Waterford Whispers / Uhavemeinstitches
Pertemps- Supremely West and Gowel Road may be a value bet on the day.
Friday
Gold Cup
MT – Strongly feel Inothewayurthinkin will not win. Don’t fancy Galopin Des Champs either. Gaelic Warrior might be too keen to get home. Don’t fancy Haiti Couleurs, hasn’t got form to think he can win at this level.
Grey Dawning not impossible off a quiet prep. Like Jango Baie and The Jukebox Man. Jango Baie looks like he will improve for step up in trip. Similarly TJM but trainer was targeting the King George this season.
LH – Complex race. McManus horses: cannot see Inotheway being good enough to defend his title. Spillane’s Tower may be aimed at Grand National. So could Fact To File run here?
GdC probably too old but could still be good enough to make the frame if wearing cheekpieces. GW has the talent but he’s a complicated ride. Haiti Couleurs is not good enough. Jango / TJM look the pair to focus on. Love how TJM managed to win King George in spite of the poorest jump of the principals at the last. Fastorslow not totally impossible to imagine him running a nice race at a big price.
SB – Jango Baie at Ascot this season was “a wow moment”. Envoi Allen might shorten.
Triumph
LH – No idea!
MT – Was Narciso Has an outstanding hurdler here? If so, can see why Proactif / Selma de Vary are at the top of the betting. But if not... the British horses are probably underrated. Minella Study looks some value based on his form.
SB – Backed Selma and happy to roll with that.
Albert Bartlett
SB – Kripticjim has a chance at 20/1.
LH – Klimt Madrik, chased home No Drama This End in the Challow, and King's Bucks for HdB, both have chances.
MT – Take on the top of market. Horses 5/1 or shorter 0/20 in recent years.
Two longshots: Moneygarrow looks like he wants this trip. Hipop de Loire wants decent ground. Ubetuba – Olly Murphy, ridden by Ben Sutton. Would be interesting if Sean Bowen gets the ride.
County Hurdle
MT – Karbau has good chance.
LH - Strong view from Ruby that Karbau is the one.
SB – Declan Rix made a strong case for Hello Neighbour – this is his only entry.
Hunter Chase
MT - Willitgoahead will benefit from stronger stamina test. Decent chance at about 14/1.
Mares' Chase
LH – Like Spindleberry but don’t love her prep. Dinoblue will need to improve and looks poor value. Really like Diva Luna. Ben Pauling very positive about her.
Martin Pipe
SB – Jump Allen prepped in a charity race so look for his entries.
Panel Lucky 15
SB – La Conquiere – Dawn Run, Thursday LM – Munsif – Fred Winter, Tuesday LH – Meetmebythesea – Jack Richards, Wednesday MT – Idaho Sun – Supreme, Tuesday
Good luck!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/LRC_Chelto_2026.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2026-03-06 12:39:322026-03-06 12:47:03LRC Cheltenham Preview Night 2026
Breeders' Cup 2025 in beautiful Del Mar, sunny California (obligatory adjectives) whizzed by over the weekend, a back-loaded two-day event featuring 14 Championship races, nine of them on the Saturday, and loads of international interest.
What follows is a combination of my race thoughts, betting outcomes and lessons learned from one of the toughest wagering puzzle books in the calendar.
We kicked off Friday, a day comprising the five two-year-old races, with the Juvenile Turf Sprint. This was a full field of 12, though Charlie Appleby's Military Code missed the event and one of the 'also eligibles' (reserves) got a run. In my preview, I'd noted how hard it was to win from a wide draw and had sided against those runners, a group that included a lot of the speed in the race. As it happened, the horse drawn 9 tracked the wide speed and won well; Aidan's second string, Brussels, finished best for the runner up slot from stall 1.
This was to set the tone regarding wide drawn horses winning on the turf track - and my pre-race opposition to them - and is one of the lessons learned as I'll come on to. As we'll also see, it was a result that favoured me: I'd backed Cy Fair ante post before the draw, and at 20/1 compared with his US tote price of 5/1 (presumably bigger with the UK bookmakers). I would not have backed him on the day at his 'day of race' price or from his draw; so I was kind of lucky here. That luck wouldn't hold.
I nominated Military Code in the Compendium - he was a non-runner. The trends picks were True Love and Havana Anna, a pair of fillies which never got involved - getting in each other's way a bit before finishing 8th and last of 12.
Juvenile Fillies
The first dirt race, and one in which I'd made four ante-post bets, three of which failed to enter the race! This is another lesson to learn. The other one, and the view I'd taken in the Breeders' Cup Compendium (BCC hereafter), was Iron Orchard, winner of key prep the Frizette. It turns out that race was no good this year, which was what the market felt; I had suggested the form might be under-rated. I was wrong on that. The unexposed filly Super Corredora made all on an annoyingly speed-favouring track, another feature of the weekend.
I'd noted that "she showed much her best form when stretched out to a mile, blitzing her field by more than eight lengths. She seemed much more at home with the steadier tempo of that mile race, travelling kindly throughout" but the class gulf meant I overlooked her save for suggesting "Super Corredora and La Wally have small bits of a chance in what might not be a vintage renewal".
It wasn't a vintage renewal and Iron Orchard finished last, La Wally second last, with Super C returning around 9/1 having been 20/1 a day before the race.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
This is a race I've been trying to beat ante post for a while, my angle being that the Euros had a shocking record in it and the US team was vastly under-rated by the British books. However, Aidan had won two of the last three - and with classy fillies Meditate and Lake Victoria - so maybe the tide was turning. Certainly he had another top notcher in Precise entered this time, though she had the worst draw in 13 of 13. She got withdrawn on the morning of the race.
My plays were scattergun: five bets, two ante post non-runners and three guesses against the (withdrawn) favourite. The best I could manage was fifth as Balantina, an unconsidered Donnacha horse, beat Pacific Mission, an unconsidered Balding horse. They were drawn 10 and 12 respectively, and the third exited post 11. I could not have got this more wrong if I'd tried.
The key to the wide horses dominating the finish was a mental early pace set by Switch In Love, a Japanese runner who should have been in the sprint; she went 22.33 for the first quarter mile, which is ridiculous. That was material because it stretched the field out into almost single file, meaning those wide horses did not have to travel four and five horses away from the rail around the turns which they would have had to do off a more sensible tempo. I was unable to locate any run style information on the tearaway leader and that blind spot - not the last of the weekend - was expensive in this case.
Ultimate Love and Ground Support were the BCC trends picks in the race, the latter running third - under Adam Beschizza, remember him? - at close to 25/1. My own picks, as discussed, are still running.
Juvenile
The Juvenile featured one of the shortest priced horses of the weekend, Ted Noffey, in the shortest field of the weekend. Just six went to post after Civil Liberty and, more painfully for my ante post bets, Blackout Time were scratched. Ted got it done while Intrepido, flagged along with Blackout Time in the BCC, ran down the field: his waited with run style was extremely unfavoured on this track over the two days. I'm sure it's difficult but this was such a biased track for such a big day; surely they can do better. Ted was trends pick.
Juvenile Turf
Again, my angle was that wide would be compromised and again they went a million miles an hour. This time, Outfielder - who was also entered in the Juvenile Turf Sprint and surely should have run there - went berzerk, blitzing the opening two furlongs in 22.2 seconds! (They have a thing called 'run up' in US races, which is a bit of ground not measured by the clock meaning he achieved that time from a running start; I'd say it would be impossible to do it from a standing start!)
So, once more, the hellish early gallop stretched them out, Gstaad - the best horse in the race, no question - getting a great trip under Soumi. He was the BCC trends pick but was definitely not my form preview pick on account of... well you know by now. Joseph's North Coast was third and a 58/1 bomb ran second; if he'd beaten Gstaad, I'd have had a trifecta that paid for the weekend. 'If' is a very cheap word on Breeders' Cup weekend...
I flagged three e/w against the fav, the best of them, Street Beast, finishing fourth at 16/1 for place money with most books.
Friday Bets
A difficult punting day but not a massive disaster, mainly on account of there only being five of the 14 races staged that day! Here was my tale of the punting tape. The odds differential column on the right hand side compares the price taken with the US return. A number bigger than 1 means the price taken beat the returned price. This is for guidance only because there are lots of white spaces where the non-runners appear. Waaaay too many non-runners on Juvenile Friday.
Saturday
Bloodied but unbowed, Saturday arrived. I've long held the view that a 6-8 split of races would work better than the 5-9 - it's just a bit of a slog by the end on Saturday; but there's no real way to add a non-juvenile race to the Friday card without arguably undermining it a little. Perhaps it wouldn't hurt to have either the Turf Sprint or the Filly & Mare Sprint start the Friday card. That would undoubtedly give more balance to the BC race distribution but I can see why it would be unpalatable to connections. As with so many things, it is what it is.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Speaking of the FM Sprint, it is a low key starter to Saturday's proceedings and, this year, was even more muted than normal thanks to the double scratch - veterinary advice, it's a big deal in California where the anti-racing brigade are visual and vocal and well represented in politics - of Sweet Azteca and Tamara, the first two in the betting.
They were also some of the speed, meaning it would be even harder for Zeitlos - my deep closer pick - to run them down from out back. As it happened, she made a really nice move on the turn before flattening out into fourth; which was no good from a betting return perspective. I didn't have a view in the BCC, flagging winner Splendora as a possible (along with others). The trends pick Hope Road ran third.
Turf Sprint
The first grass race Saturday and another Euro hopeful after notching two of the three turf contests on Friday. The race was again denuded of some of its lustre as Adrian Murray's well-fancied Arizona Blaze failed the vet. My pick, Motorious, always needs the splits to appear with his late running style; and they didn't here. He stayed on for a never nearer fifth. Arizona had been the trends pick. Shisospicy very impressively led all the way, while Khaadem, a horse that needs another furlong, produced a mighty effort in third for Charlie Hills and Frankie Dettori.
This was a race marred by the desperate loss of She's Quality, a massive flag bearer for the Jack Davison team. She pulled up soon after the start and was found to have an irreparable pelvic fracture. So sad.
Sprint
The six furlong dirt sprint was a race in which Bentornato was a strong favourite. I'd backed him after his prep run win - lucky me, right? - but couldn't put him up at shorter than 2/1 in a full field given the chance he might 'bounce' after that huge return effort. He didn't bounce and he again ran huge, scoring by better than two lengths for the same trainer, Jose d'Angelo, who had won the preceding Turf Sprint.
Bentornato was a trends contender in the BCC, and my trio of e/w bombs for the race included the Japanese horse American Stage, which ran 4th at 33/1 in UK. That was a paying place position.
Distaff
The nine furlong Distaff was all about Seismic Beauty for a lot of people but, as she "picked up a quarter" - a lovely euphemism for taking a bobble/pitching forward - a couple of strides out of the gate, her race was over; she was eventually eased off.
Her failure to contest the pace, which she habitually does, made life a lot easier for Scylla on that speed-favouring strip. She made pretty much all to score by a five length margin from Canadian hope Nitrogen, with my deep closer play Regaled (33/1) picking up third, and e/w pick Clicquot getting fourth - a paying place with many books.
Seismic was the trends pick, along with a non-runner, and BCC form picks Clicquot and Regaled both made the place payouts at solid prices.
Turf
Next up was the Turf, and it was a typical 'right thinking, wrong play' renewal of a race I just always get wrong. The 'wrong Euro' angle is so strong in the Turf. This time, Minnie Hauk was the strong betting favourite but she'd had a long enough season and a hard enough race in the Arc. Ethical Diamond, for Willie, had shown blistering closing speed in a Royal Ascot handicap and then the Ebor - and he did the same again here. In my write up, I'd noted, "He’s not a million miles from the required level, probably needing to find seven pounds or so; and he showed a dazzling turn of foot at Ascot, closing out the last quarter mile up the hill in 23.24 off an even tempo. And again, off a slowish early pace, he ran the last two furlongs at York in 23.89 seconds. I’m almost talking myself into this..!"
Almost. But I didn't talk myself into it.
The trends highlighted four horses which included Rebel's Romance in second and El Cordobes - 33/1 back home - in third. My BCC form suggestions were Goliath (very disappointing) and Amiloc (nice effort in 4th, a paying place).
Classic
A fascinating contest even without its star attraction, Sovereignty having spiked a temperature a couple of days before the race. I'd mused about the lack of form lines between generations and it indeed transpired that the older horses were clear of the classic cohort, filling the podium with the same trio that did likewise a year ago. The pack was shuffled this time, however, and it was the Japanese superstar Forever Young - on the same day that human compatriot Yoshinobu Yamamoto headlined in the LA Dodgers' unlikely World Series comeback win - that emerged on top for one of the world's best trainers, Yoshito Yahagi. It was a big night for Californian Japanese residents!
Forever Young, racing handily throughout, held the (frequently) unlucky Sierra Leone by an evaporating half length at the line. That one always comes hard and late in his races; you know by now the piste was against him. Fierceness rounded out a chalky trifecta as the remaining trends pick (Sovereignty, a lovely ante post ticket for me, was sunk on Thursday. Sigh)
I felt the market had the race by the short and curlies and so it proved. Trying to be cute, I sided with a pair of longshots who ran accordingly in 7th and 8th of nine, beating only the no hoper pacemaker. My other star ante post bet, Baeza, took a lot of support... and also ran clunk, with five horses in front of home past the wire 🙁
Mile
It was looking for all the world like a washout for yours true before the Mile. I'd invested in Notable Speech ante post at 6/1 and 13/2, another value bet before the gates opened, his SP around 5/2. Of course, I'd watched that show a number of times already over the weekend only to grimace at the twist in the tale. This time, no such worries as a confident William Buick steered Notable Speech to an easy length and a half verdict over Formidable Man, now six wins and a second on the Del Mar turf - and the best Californian grass horse for a few years.
The Lion In Winter ran a belter in third, with Sahlan for Francis-Henri Graffard closing too late into fifth. He was beaten a nose for fourth, sinking a decent ante post each way ticket. I'm running out of sighs.
Sahlan and Rhetorical, the horse that clung to fourth, were the Trends picks while BCC flagged Sahlan and Jonquil, the latter very disappointing (to me) in ninth.
Dirt Mile
This was one favourite I wanted to be with. Nysos had looked a proper horse this season and, though he'd had a minor injury scare since his last win, he towered over his field on form and numbers. As it turned out, he was all but undone by the track bias, eventually prevailing in a desperate head bob photo with the almost-all-the-way Citizen Bull, last year's Juvenile champion.
He was the trends pick and the form pick in BCC, and he was the second leg of a 'Ted Nysos' double for me which clawed back a few of the many prior wrong turns I'd made.
Filly & Mare Turf
We closed out with the FM Turf and, as it was last year, my biggest bet of the weekend. As it was last year, that was on Cinderella's Dream; and, as it was last year, I left the money in the satchel. A year ago she'd be terribly unlucky in defeat, a fast closing second having failed to secure the gaps. This time, she was flat as a dab and finished midfield. So much for cutely grabbing four places each way - she finished eighth!
More happily, I had also backed Gezora earlier in the week at 9/2. Gezora won in a photo with another wire-to-wire attempter, the excellent US mare She Feels Pretty. But wait, what's this? Gezora returned 9.1/1 on the US 'nanny' and 14.5 on Betfair! Jaysus holy cripes. Way to turn a winner into a loser!
Trying to catch the superfecta (first four correct order) which paid a tidy $781.15 for a $0.10 stake, I had omitted She Feels Pretty, the clear second choice and a mare I greatly respected, in the second spot despite taking five horses in that berth. It wasn't a good weekend for my on track tote plays.
Nothing here for the trends picks, Cinders and See The Fire (the only wide drawn horse all weekend that got beaten - this was a slow pace and she could never get a position). But the BCC form suggestion included Gezora along with Cinders. I very much hope some of you managed to get either US tote, bookie odds or Betfair SP, all of which were at least double the price I took. Siiiiiigh.
Saturday Bets
In the end, thanks to a short-priced double and the ante post bet in the Mile - as well as that losing winner on Gezora - I managed to scrape a profit from my bookie bets. But, by the time I'd accounted for $500 of losing tote tickets - I bought a voucher for that much and steadily burned through it over the two days, so it was at least easy to track the size of the hole - it was a losing weekend. Candidly, it looked like being a lot worse than it turned out.
The nature of festival betting, whether it's Royal Ascot, Cheltenham or the Breeders' Cup, is that it's a very small sample size which can make one appear disproportionately good or bad. This year I looked pretty bad based on the results, but I hope Compendium readers appreciate the amount of legwork that went into those losers! I'll be doing little different next year... but I won't be doing nothing different next year. See 'lessons learned' below.
These were my Saturday bets.
And this is a little summary info on my weekend, for whatever it's worth.
Lessons Learned
Every day is a school day, especially when punting big events. Below are my lessons learned from BC2025, the 42nd edition of what is a strong contender for my favourite event of the racing year. (Apologies to just about everyone reading!!!)
1 A fast pace brings wide-drawn runners into consideration on the turf course
Those sprinter fractions on the front end in the mile two-year-old races completely unstitched the inside draw bias. As long as the horse was good enough, shunning the early speed from anywhere was the way to get it done. We knew Gstaad was good enough, and respect to Balantina also.
2 Do not bet juvenile races ante post
This one is a bit more nuanced. I've had good results doing this in the past, and indeed Cy Fair was a solid start to the meeting this time on a horse I would not have played on the day. But there's no doubt that it's attritional in terms of horses either failing to enter at the pre-entry stage or getting scratched by the CHRB (California Horse Racing Board) vets. They may be slightly stricter than their Keeneland counterparts who will oversee next year's Cup, but it's a big risk annually that horses bet early may not get a run; seemingly even more so in the juvenile races.
3 Look for electric acceleration in the turf races
I think the lesson here is that, to win on the grass, you need very fast closing speed; and, obviously, that needs to be in the context of the projected race pace. Gstaad, Ethical Diamond, Notable Speech, Gezora and co were all super-rapid at the end of their races and had demonstrated that earlier in the season. This does seem the key to unlocking the mile-plus turf races.
4 Consider the impact of field size on likely winner odds
This year I backed a LOT of outsiders; many more than I usually do. It did not pay off. Looking at the field sizes, which were generally smaller on the main (dirt) track, that was a mistake. It can be a crushing meeting to be backing favourites, which often have a torrid time of it; but as field sizes diminish there is less scope for a randomizer pace burn up and shock results. I definitely need to keep that in mind in dirt race considerations going forward.
5 Don't bet so many closers
Related, smaller fields tend to mean less early pace, which in turn means less opportunity for late runners to get involved. The imponderable when putting a guide together before the meeting starts is always how the dirt track will play. Usually, it's pretty fair, but sometimes it just hugely favours early speed. This year was one of those years.
-
Breeders' Cup XLII (42 for cash) was a typically brilliant international showcase, with winners trained in UK, Ireland, France and Japan - as well as in the United States, of course. While it was shorn of its main star with the late defection of Sovereignty (who I personally feel would probably have been beaten given the primacy of the older horses), it still delivered quality and drama in supersize measure.
A quiet one for Aidan and Charlie - a single win apiece - meant space on the turf roll of honour for Donnacha, Willie and Francis-Henri. The meeting was all the better for that: expect at least the last two to be trying again twelve months hence, along with their more established colleagues.
It'll be Kentucky and autumnal weather for the BC43. God willing, I'll be there; and here's hoping for more of the same from a sporting perspective and, well, just more from a punting one.
- Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Gezora_FMTurf_DelMar_2025.png318830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-11-04 10:43:592025-11-04 10:43:59Breeders’ Cup 2025: The Review
This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'm making a suggested placepot permutation each day. Today is the final day of four where I'll offer my thoughts; tomorrow, you should now understand the process enough to 'fly solo'. So how's it been going?
It started well on Tuesday: although the perm only caught 2% of the dividend, that was enough to return £58.11 from a £24.96 stake, including 5% Tix bonus. That's a profit of £33.15.
It got better on Wednesday: a £22.68 stake returned £146.47 from 13% of the dividend. That's two four-figure dividends we've managed to get a slice of, which is very, very hard using traditional 'caveman' perms. This is the beauty of ABCX and Tix!
It was less good, but still good, on Thursday: we staked £25.44 and caught exactly £1 of the dividend which, including Tix 5% extra, came to £44.94, a profit of £19.50.
Totals on the week to date are £73.08 staked and £249.52 returned, for a profit of £176.44. Given approximately £25 stake again today, we're guaranteed to clear north of £150 profit from Tix Picks and placepots on the week (again, no Tix Picks on Saturday). Not bad for a bit of fun!
It was easier than it looked yesterday but is normally trappy on Ascot Friday. And there's another £50 prize giveaway today before 'double bubble' tomorrow - see below.
I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]
Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.
When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.
Tix Bonus
Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.
Prizes to be won
And, throughout Royal Ascot week, we're giving away some Tix prizes.
Tuesday to Friday / Saturday
For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.
On the final day of Royal Ascot, Saturday, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.
So that's £300 in prizes this week!
Congratulationsto Mick C, who won £50 on Tuesday; and to Paul M, who won £50 on Wednesday; and to Vincent M, who won yesterday.
What do you need?
You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]
**
To Friday, Day 4.
Leg 1 - Albany Stakes:
Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore are three from four in juvenile races this week, the winners all being shortish and the loser being 18/1. They have the shortish Signora here, who is obviously highly thought of as she debuted in a Group 3 where she finished third. A. But the fastest filly so far is probably Fitzella, who ran a blinder against boys over five on debut and then ran away with a maiden over six against her own sex last time. She tends to go forward and will need something in reserve on this stiffer straight, but I'm pretty sure she's smart.
The draw was highly significant yesterday - high being the operative word - and if things manifest similarly this afternoon, the cheaply bought (but presumably expensively sold on) Ipanema Queen will go well. Adrian Murray has an excellent juvenile record at Ascot and this filly won a big field maiden on debut. Gold Digger is also drawn high and her closing sectionals on debut at Yarmouth mark her out as having more to come: she's likely to get a 'Jamie come lately' ride.
A - 5 Fitzella, 14 Signora
B - 6 Gold Digger, 9 Ipanema Queen
Leg 2 - Commonwealth Cup:
We have to go narrow somewhere and, though Charlie Appleby has had a quiet week so far, his horses have run largely in line with market expectation. Shadow Of Light drops back from the Guineas mile to a testing six and that looks optimal. I'm banking on him here from his high draw - and will be place laying for half my stake most likely. It's a really good race and there are plenty of credible threats but his juvenile form, including 6f and 7f G1 wins, and his 2000 Guineas third set the standard.
A - 9 Shadow Of Light
Leg 3 - Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes:
You'll have got the memo about high draws in big field 1m4f Ascot handicaps by now and, though it will go awry sooner or later, it's the percentage call. Crystal Black won from 4 last year but the next quartet home were berthed in 16,13,18,17. Three of the highest drawn four finished top five in 2023, and it was 18,10,16,4,15,17 in 2022. Midfield or held up have been optimal run styles. Almosh'her probably needs to be ridden more patiently than recently, Stressfree has a perfect draw/pace profile, ditto Mount Atlas and French Duke. That'll do. Look out for War Rooms as well, for last year's shrewd winning connections, though he misses the ticket this time.
A - 8 Mount Atlas, 9 Stressfree, 12 French Duke, 14 Almosh'her
Leg 4 - Coronation Stakes:
Rightly or wrongly - probably the latter - I didn't make this as open and shut as the bookies currently do. Zarigana has been quietly unimpressive in winning her races, though she tends to get it done, even with a little help from her amis. Falakeyah looks a star filly in the making but this is big step up on only her third career start. They are the A ticket pair but I'm taking insurance on B in the form of January, the pick of Ryan Moore and expected to show her Irish 1000 Guineas run to be all wrong; and also Chantilly Lace, another inexperienced filly who was close enought to Desert Flower in the 2000 Guineas to give her a squeak.
A - 6 Falakeyah, 11 Zarigana
B - 3 Chantilly Lace, 8 January
Leg 5 - Sandringham Stakes:
The straight seven and mile handicaps yesterday were exclusively the province of very high drawn runners, and I nicked some nice trifecta swag from that simple 'in' (I'll be trying again today but lightning rarely strikes three times!). It's the place to start here, then, and we'll take three of the top four stalls on A: Alfareqa, Miss Nightfall and Zgharta. We'll also take six from the rail Betty Clover. On C, I'll lob a few middle and low draws, in case it plays differently from 24 hours ago - plus UNF.
A - 2 Betty Clover, 11 Miss Nightfall, 13 Zgharta, 25 Alfareqa
C - 1 Tabiti, 5 Bountiful, 6 Silver Ghost, 12 Never Let Go, 15 Oolong Poobong, Unnamed favourite
Leg 6 - King Edward VII Stakes:
Calandagan won this in breathtaking fashion a year ago and his colours - those of the Aga Khan estate - will be worn by Ben Coen atop Zahrann this time. He's progressed with each step up in trip, winning his maiden over ten by seven lengths and a Listed race at this mile and a half range last time by more than two lengths. If he's as effective on very fast ground, and shows even a small hop forward form wise, he'll be tough to beat. Amiloc has a similar profile, unbeaten in four for Ralph Beckett, and winner of a Listed race when upped three furlongs most recently. He's bred for this job - by Postponed out of an Authorized mare, would definitely jump a hurdle! - and rounds out A tickets.
I'm not mad keen on Puppet Master but he's the only other one at a single figure price, and he's taking support; that's enough for solo B status. And I'm flinging some mud at the C wall way more in hope of a result than expectation.
A - 1 Amiloc, 11 Zahrann
B - 8 Puppet Master
C - 4 Green Storm, 6 Nightwalker, 7 Opportunity, 9 Regal Ulixes, Unnamed favourite
Full ticket view
Again keeping things sub-£25, we'll get 4p change!
Full disclosure: as always, even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!
The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:
And the breakdown by ticket is like this:
Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.
Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 again today (and £100 tomorrow, Saturday) at Royal Ascot.
On we go, to the fourth day of Royal Ascot and the final day of our full preview coverage. Win, lose or draw, I hope you've enjoyed the contributions of our assembled panel. Victor Value, aka John Burke, and Gavin Priestley would very much appreciate you checking out their pages (through the banner images in the post) if you'd liked their style/work.
Let's go to Friday's card!
2.30 THE ALBANY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)
Presented by Victor Value
The Albany Stakes is a Group 3 contest open to two-year-old fillies only. It’s a relatively new race to Royal Ascot being first run in 2002. Initially Listed status, it became a Group 3 in 2005.
Some useful fillies have won the race before going onto better things including:
Samitar (2011) - Went onto win the following year’s Irish 1,000 Guineas.
Cursory Glance (2014) – Won the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes later that season.
Brave Anna (2016) – Landed the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes that year.
Porto Fortuna (2023) – Proved even better as a 3-year-old winning three Group 1’s including the Coronation Stakes here.
Trends to Note
Taking a quick look at the ten-year trends, unlike some of the juvenile races at the meeting there hasn’t been a real surprise result. Horses sent off 22/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 86 runners, 3 places.
The ten most recent winners all shared the following trends:
- Won their last start (non-winners last time out are 0 winners from 60 runners, 6 places)
- Returned 17/2 or shorter on their previous start (those sent off 9/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 42 runners, 3 places)
Finally, delving into the draw, winners have come from all over the track in the past ten years. However, if you we look at the last five years in isolation, 10 of the 15 placed horses were drawn in stalls 1 to 8 including four of the five winners.
Contenders
Seventeen were declared for this year’s race. Despite the size of the field, I like just five.
Balantina stepped up markedly on her debut run when making all to win Curragh maiden 26 days ago. Connections won that Curragh race with Porta Fortuna in 2023. I doubt she will prove as good as that multiple Group 1-winning filly, but she has each way claims from stall 4.
Signora was weak in the betting when a 2½ lengths 3rd of 6 to the useful Lady Iman in a Group 3 at Naas on her racecourse debut last month. Tenderly handled in the closing stages there, she can win races on the evidence of that run. Her dam won the 2017 Queen Mary Stakes and trainer Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2016. Strong claims from stall 11.
Green Sense was a winner on her debut at the Curragh in April and improved again when a ¾-length second to Lady Iman in that Naas Group 3. She’s likely capable of a bit more improvement albeit might not have the upside of the third.
Oisin Murphy rode Balantina and Fitzella last time and has opted for the latter. The daughter of Too Darn Hot built on her racecourse debut promise when winning at Haydock 28 days ago. That performance marked her down as a useful juvenile prospect and she should be in the mix.
Gold Digger was an expensive (260,000gns) purchase at the Craven Breeze Up sales in April. The daughter of Starman overcame a slow start to win at Yarmouth on her debut 37 days ago. Well backed last time, like many of the fillies in the line-up she’s capable of more improvement.
Albany Stakes Verdict
Aidan O’Brien has already landed two of the Royal Ascot juveniles - prior to racing on Thursday - so one must respect the claims of Signora who was thrown in at the deep end on her racecourse debut. Balantinabids to follow in the hoofprints of stablemate Porta Fortuna who won this race two years ago. I think she's a solid each way chance. Fitzella and Gold Digger might prove the best of the British-trained fillies.
Selection: Try Balantina each way at 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3.05 THE COMMONWEALTH CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A whopping 22 runners for this fantastic addition to the racing calendar generally, and to Royal Ascot more specifically. It's already produced some terrific races - and winners - and this year's renewal looks likely to continue in that vein. However, is it an open and shut case?
The favourite, at shorter than 2/1, is Guineas third and dual juvenile Group 1 winner including at 6f, Shadow Of Light. He shaped like a non-stayer at Newmarket, the mile always being the question mark (along with whether he'd trained on), but ran a cracker before fading in the final half furlong or so. This stiff straight six ought to be ideal, and stall 19 is probably helpful, too. He has a very obvious chance.
Against him are massed ranks, led by the filly Babouche. Classics were never entertained for this Ger Lyons-trained juvenile G1 winner, and she stepped up on a seasonal debut effort when winning the Group 3 Lacken Stakes, comfortably from Whistlejacket, last time out.
Whistlejacket reopposes here, and was also second the day Babouche bagged her Group 1, in the Phoenix Stakes over this trip. He's a very consistent horse, a G1 winner himself in France, and his form ties in closely with both the filly and Shadow Of Light for all that he's been beaten respectful distances by both as his head to head record shows:
Jonquil's profile is slightly different. Lightly raced, he's run three times at seven furlongs - winning either side of a Listed flop, firstly in a maiden and most recently in the Group 3 Greenham on seasonal debut - before stepping up to a mile last time. That was in the Poulains, the French 2000 Guineas and he was but a head shy of Henri Matisse, so the question is whether he has the speed for this assignment. He will be staying on when others can't but I'm not sure about the trip for all that he's clearly classy and progressive. Connections had Field Of Gold for the St James's Palace or presumably he'd have gone there.
The consistent Ides Of March could easily be on the premises again, but he's got a bit to find with a couple other than Shadow Of Light; ditto Big Mojo, who I half expected to go up in trip this season: this stiffer track will certainly suit - he's a course and distance winner from the trial race earlier this year - and his trainer is a master at getting the best out of sprinters.
The raiding party are headed by French-trained Rayevka and the US sprinter Shisospicy. The former has raced exclusively on the soft side of good and produced a huge career best last time in a Chantilly G3; that form, or a bit more if the faster ground helps, could grab her a podium spot.
Shisospicy has no going concerns, but will be running in a straight line in a race for the first time. She has a stone to find with Shadow Of Light and, though I'm glad she is here to add to the international flavour, I don't fancy her chances especially.
Of the rest, it's always dangerous writing off an Adrian Murray-trained sprinter, and Arizona Blaze was third in the Norfolk last year and ran a slightly unlucky second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He's a well drawn pace angle and can take them along to the quarter pole and beyond - holding on to the finish will be trickier, of course.
Two more worth a mention are last year's Queen Mary winner, Leovanni, and the Nick Luck and Kevin Blake co-owned Lady With The Lamp. The first named is probably better at five furlongs and may not have trained on - bit too early to say - but she obviously fared well here previously; the latter has been unfancied, to some degree at least, on her most recent pair of starts, rallying from far back each time to score. She'll get a similar setup here and may not be a forlorn hope: it's hard to peg the form of deep closers.
It's a cracking race and one that revolves around SHADOW OF LIGHT. I think he probably just wins, tracking Arizona Blaze in the adjacent stall, and finishing strong. He's probably not even a terrible price given there's plenty of dead wood in the context of the grade in this field. A far more speculative each way alternative is Rayevka: she'll need the ground to eke out a bit more but, as a 'now' filly - coming off a big career top - a small win/place play might reward.
Suggestion: Back SHADOW OF LIGHT to win at 2/1 or bigger. Try a tiny e/w on Rayevkaat 22/1 with all the extra places.
3.40 THE DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)
Presented by Rory Delargy
There’s a growing sense of déjà vu here. Having suggested that high was the place to be in the King George V Handicap on Thursday, I ploughed into stall 17 as a win bet only to watch Sing Us A Song ruin his chance with a dreadful beginning, only made worse by seeing stalls 20 and 21 land the exacta. Arrrgggh!!
Here we are again, then. A big-field handicap where those who can finish off up the centre of the track are at an advantage, and I might just narrow the runners with a view to getting the exacta – or the swinger for the less adventurous (surely the swinger should be for the more adventurous?! No sniggering at the back!)
Long List: Horses who could reasonably be described as hold-up types drawn 12 or higher are as follows:
War Rooms
Siege of Troy
Teumessias Fox
French Duke
Mount Atlas
Stressfree
Flight Leader
Of that group, I have a clear preference for French Duke who I thought was unlucky here last year in the King George V Handicap, while I’d happily throw out Teumessias Fox who has been well beaten twice before at this meeting.
War Rooms represents last year’s winning connections and is worth including as he will be suited by a very strong pace having proven his stamina over further, while Siege of Troy is dropping in class having run in Listed and Group 3 contests. She’s exposed but a tongue tie could help here and I’m loth to throw her out.
Mount Atlas is probably too high in the weights, with a course and distance win coming off 15lb lower. He’ll run his race but might find at least two better at the wire. Stressfree has a win and a second from two runs over the trip this term and definitely merits his place, leaving Flight Leader of those drawn high. He has the draw and the run style, but his form is at shorter and I’m not sure he has the requisite stamina for the job.
Wildcards:
I’m never entirely sure about front runners from wide draws, but Almosh’her is unexposed and coming off a career best at the trip. Beaten by only one horse in his career, he’s widest of all in 22 and ticks enough boxes to make himself indispensable. Hand Of God came high, wide and handsome when winning over 1¼m here last year and should progress further. I’m not certain he wants 1½m but he was strong at the finish 12 months ago and merits respect as a previous Royal Ascot winner.
Verdict:
Perm the following in the exotic of your choice, depending on how risk-averse you are, included in order of preference:
French Duke
Stressfree
Almosh’her
War Rooms
Hand of God
4.20 THE CORONATION STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
The traditional clash of the 1000 Guineas fillies from across Europe. With the Newmarket and Curragh winners, Desert Flower and Lake Victoria, both absent, it falls to promoted Pouliches scorer Zarigana to uphold the Classic form.
In that French 1000, she got the nod in a highly contentious stewards' decision from the syndicate-owned Charlie Fellowes-trained Shes Perfect. I've watched that replay from all angles countless times, and it genuinely felt like a stitch up to me for all that we know the French interference rules are far stricter (and, in my view, better) than ours. Anyway, to the form more generally. It's hard to say that that Classic race hasn't worked out because the disqualified winner and third and fifth all went up markedly in trip for the Prix de Diane. They made little impression there, shaping like none of them stayed. Still, Zarigana has won her last three races by a nose, a neck, and minus a nose! She looks one to take on at the prices.
Falakeyah is unbeaten in her two starts to date, both this season, and she's no sort of profile fit for a Coronation Stakes. But her form is a) good and b) very likely less than she's capable of. She laughed at Life Is Beautiful in a Listed race at Newmarket last time - that one was only two lengths behind the second in the Ribblesdale yesterday. While LIB stepped up a quarter mile, Falakeyah steps back the same distance and, on a turning track with a short straight like Ascot, which places more emphasis on speed than stamina unless they go a million, that's a niggle. Owen Burrows is highly selective and rarely places his horses in the wrong slot, but she again looks short given those reservations.
Another lightly raced unbeaten filly with form tie ins to Life Is Beautiful is Kon Tiki, trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam. Three from three so far, most recently in the mile Michael Seeley Memorial at York (Listed), she's got plenty more to offer but is a stone behind the highest rated on her performances thus far.
Ralph Beckett sends Chantilly Lace, lobbed in at the deep end in the manner of a Mexican cliff dive last time when going from Newbury novice to the 1000 Guineas. She ran a belter there to be two and a half lengths fifth, and has every right to make further progress here on just her third lifetime start.
January's juvenile form was strong - twice getting close to 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower - but she flopped on her seasonal bow and comes here needing to show she's trained on. The fact Ballydoyle have myriad fillies to pick from and Ryan lands on her implies she had; if that's right, and you can forgive her Irish Guineas flop, she's a fair price.
Stablemate Exactly has a higher rating than January, courtesy of her length defeat by Zarigana in the French 1000; it must be noteworthy that Ryan has shunned this one having ridden her in Paris. Exactly's form profile does hint that a softer sward would be preferable.
Ollie Sangster's 2-3 from Newmarket's 1000 Guineas ran 6th and 11th in the Curragh follow up, and perhaps Flight is the one that will prefer these rapid conditions. It was good to firm when she was second at HQ and she ought again to finish in front of Simmering, who will be having her fourth run of the campaign.
At a massive price, Duty First took a step forward from Newmarket (9th, beaten 12 lengths) to the Curragh (4th, beaten less than five lengths) in two Classic outings, and had earlier won the Fred Darling on her first 2025 outing. Archie Watson has an excellent Royal Ascot record so this filly could be a small bit of value at 66/1.
I'm not sure the market has this race right yet, and I was not surprised that the three I think are over-priced (or three of the four excluding the massive outsider) are showing blue on the odds grids. Still, you can have 8/1 about January, 11/1 Chantilly Lace, and 16/1 Flight. 66/1 is the price for Duty First and she's getting a tiny speculative from me also.
Suggestion: Split a point or two on January at 8/1 and Chantilly Lace at 11/1. Split a penny win and place on Duty First at 66/1.
5.00 THE SANDRINGHAM STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)
Presented by Dave Renham
A 3yo fillies handicap over the straight mile to finish my week’s work. I’ll start by taking a look at the 15-year trends, which are a bit sparse as far as strong patterns go.
Market Rank
Six wins for favourites and three for second favourites so despite having big fields generally (10 of the races with 20+ runners) the market has proved a good guide.
Weight Rank
Eight of the last 15 winners have come from the top four in the weights (inc. joint 4th). This equates to 53% of the winners from just 20% of the total runners. Also, a further 15 were placed.
Position LTO
Eight of the last 15 winners won LTO. This equates to 53% of the winners from just 27% of the total runners.
Price LTO
14 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 8/1 or less LTO (from 200 runners). A further 31 were placed. Horses priced 17/2 or bigger LTO have won just once from 128 runners (11 placed).
Draw
The number of runners each year has fluctuated massively between 15 and 30 runners so for my draw analysis I am doing what I did yesterday, using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail. Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.
Looking at the last 15 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:
Draw position in relation to stands rail
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5 stalls away
0.51
0.56
6 to 10 stalls away
0.52
0.57
11 to 15 stalls away
0.52
0.52
16 to 20 stalls away
0.42
0.42
21 or more stalls away
0.51
0.62
These figures give us a real conundrum as there is no clear pattern. It does seem that more fancied horses furthest away from the stands rail (the low draws) have performed the best.
Run Style
Now I am looking at the PRBs for each run style group based on the last 15 years. The splits are:
Run Style
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group
0.36
0.48
Prominent
0.44
0.46
Mid Division
0.49
0.52
Held up
0.59
0.62
A clear edge to hold up horses – a pattern we have seen before this week in the mile handicaps. In terms of wins we have seven wins for hold ups, six for mid pack runners and one apiece for prominent /early leaders.
Form Preview
I have four runners in this year's field that I particularly like:
Supermodel – Two wins from three starts including a comfortable success on seasonal reappearance at Nottingham. All three starts the horse has been held up which, as the trends show, has been a strong positive. Trainer William Haggas has not had the greatest record in handicaps at this meeting but in each of the last three years he has saddled one handicap winner, and I think Supermodel could make it four years running. Drawn 3.
Better Clover – She has run twice as Ascot, finishing eighth in the Queen Mary last year and then second beaten a neck a month later in the Group 3 Queen Margaret Stakes. She has run three times this year and shaped with promise in each, finishing fourth, second and third. The last run in France, in Group 2 company, was an eye-catching effort. William Buick was booked early for this one so I am guessing Eve Johnson Houghton is very hopeful. In terms of run style Betty Clover tends to race mid pack or further back early which is ideal. Drawn 23 and second in the weights is a plus from the 15-year trends.
Silver Ghost – Is two from two this year with wins at Newmarket and Goodwood. She has gone up 8lb for that Goodwood win but that was impressive, especially considering that her draw may have been lower than ideal: she was in stall 6 and horses finishing second to seventh were drawn 12, 9, 16, 10, 13, 15; those finishing eighth to last were drawn 1, 5, 2, 7, 8, 4, 3. Drawn 20 here. In both of her wins this year she has been held up in rear early.
Miss Nightfall – She finished second to Silver Ghost at Goodwood. She was well beaten that day but would have finished closer if granted a clearer run between the one and the two pole. Drawn 28 and looks a lively outsider.
Suggestion
Try Supermodel to win at 8/1 & Betty Clover e/w at 12/1 (several bookies going six places again, Sky Bet seven)
5.35 THE KING EDWARD VII STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Gavin Priestley
For the purposes of the trends we'll overlook the result from 2020 because, due to Covid, the Derby was actually run after Royal Ascot that year.
So, as is usual for this race we have a field made up of a couple of also rans from Epsom, a few that missed it for one reason or another, a number of lesser lights from the O'Brien stable, a couple of winners stepping up from novice company, and a few trainers tilting at windmills hoping to pick up some black type and place money.
Traditionally sandwiched in the middle of the Epsom and Irish Derby's, the 'Ascot Derby' is a poor shadow of either of those Group 1's and the Epsom winner hasn't shown up here in a very long time. However, the Epsom second did run, and win, in 2023. In fact, 5 of the last 8 winners had their last start at Epsom where they had finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 10th (twice).
This year we have just two runners from the Derby taking part, Nightwalker and Green Storm, neither of whom looked like getting competitive at Epsom. The pair had met previously when a distant 3rd and 4th in the Fielden Stakes at Newmarket back in April with Nightwalker doing best there but it was Green Storm who won their private battle at Epsom when finishing 7th. As a 2yo Green Storm had finished within 2 lengths of the likely favourite here, Amiloc, in a Kempton maiden and was 1 1/2 length behind the Derby 3rd Tennessee Stud in a French Group 1 at the back end of last season.
Of the two that ran in the Derby I'd side with Green Storm to do the best and he does look a pretty big price if able to reproduce some of that 2yo form. He hasn't managed it yet but the stable remain convinced he's still got it in him and this is nowhere near as competitive as that headline G1. I'd expect him to seriously outrun his current 40/1 odds and I'll probably have a little side bet on him.
The trends say we need a run as a 2yo, 1-3 seasonal runs, 2-7 career starts and the most recent within the last 12-56 days in a class 1-3 race with a top four finish (unless it was the Epsom Derby). All of the last nine winners were rated 103+ and interestingly, 13 of the last 17 winners had yet to win a Group race. It also hasn't paid to get too fancy in this race recently with all of the last 7 non-Covid renewals having gone to horses at 6/1 or under from the top three in the betting.
Which leads me to the selection. I'm going to make my main bet another horse that looks majorly overpriced. In fact, his odds look so wrong it's making me think I've missed something because in my mind there is no way this horse should be 14/1 on what we've seen from him so far this Season. I'm expecting him to be gambled on and go off at single figure odds.
CONVERGENT has had three races, two novice races at Redcar that have worked out very well with multiple winners coming out of both races, and the Group 3 Chester Vase where he ran 3rd to the Aidan O'Brien trained Lambourn: the same Lambourn that skated home in the Derby where he beat the Chester Vase second Lazy Griff. Not only have the front two from that race confirmed the form in the best possible way, the 15 length 6th from the race has also come out and won a Group 3 since. 14/1 is massive for a horse who ticks the boxes, has the ideal profile for this race and has top form to back it up. Clifford Lee is back onboard, who has a 100% 2-2 record on him, and the trainer has been knocking on the door with a few of his runners this week. Everything is in place for a big run... Non-runner, aaaargh
SELECTION: CONVERGENT 1pt EW 14/1 (Paddypower) Small each way on Green Storm at 40/1
6.10 THE PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)
Presented by David Massey
I’ve enjoyed doing these write-ups for Geegeez this week but there’s not been a lot of big-priced ones that I’ve fancied for readers to get stuck into. Well, it might have taken until Friday, but I’ve found three I like and if I can bag the winner from them, I’m hopeful I might get called back to have another go next year… [you're in! - Ed.]
I started by looking at Redorange, trained by Clive Cox, as he’s a gelding I’ve been keen on since I saw him win at Yarmouth last year. He won well that day, and I decided he’d be a horse I’d follow this year. I wasn’t the only one, as he was backed off the boards to win at Chester on his second start of the season, the 9-4 in the morning evaporating to just 11-10 at the off. Chester suited him down to the ground; in greyhound parlance, quickly away, early pace, led late on, always doing enough.
I wonder whether Ascot will suit him as well, and in any case let’s revisit Redorange’s first run of the year at Sandown where he still ran well but only finished third. In front of him that day in second was Brosay, who finished off well and, whilst not an unlucky loser, jumping the path late on certainly didn’t help his cause. He finished ¾ length in front of Redorange there, yet is 7lb better in here, and is over twice the price. That, to me, makes no sense, and given Ascot should suit, and the fast ground will hold no fears, at 20-1 and bigger he heads up my list.
The other two both come from the Queen Mary last year, and both look overpriced, given Royal Ascot form - much like Cheltenham Festival form it often translates well from year to year.
Karl Burke’s Miss Lamai finished fourth to Leovanni last year, and the theory was that she’d be a speedy 2yo and no more. To be fair to her she was highly tried after that, taking in a couple of Grade 3s in France and, whilst not disgraced in either, it did look as if that might be her lot.
However, on her latest start, in the Westow Stakes at York, she took a good step forward running on in taking style to finish third to the useful Tropical Storm and in front of good sorts like Aesterius and Mr Lightside. It would appear, on that, she’s not done yet, and I can see this test suiting her well. We know she acts on fast ground at Ascot so that’s not a concern, and with the handicapper leaving her alone after York when he could have very easily given her another couple of pounds, 25-1 looks a price I can get involved with.
And finally… We come to the 2024 Queen Mary third Maw Lam. Now, at first glance she’s a harder one to love, as her form this year hasn’t been as good as it was last year; but I think you can find excuses - not that she needs one for her seasonal reappearance, a fifth in the Fred Darling, a perfectly acceptable effort. At Cork next time, she didn’t get the best of runs as she came from the rear but still finished sixth, and at Haydock last time she ran too free, and was a spent force late. With Jack Nicholls taking a useful 7lb off, she looks on a fair mark and, like Miss Lamai, we know these conditions suit her well. 40/1? Yep, add her to the shortlist…
Three against the field: Brosay 22/1, Miss Lamai 18/1, Maw Lam 40/1
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/davidprobertRoyalAscot3_830_320.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-06-19 15:05:202025-08-25 13:10:38Royal Ascot 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips
This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'm making a suggested placepot permutation each day.
It started well on Tuesday: although the perm only caught 2% of the dividend, that was enough to return £58.11 from a £24.96 stake, including 5% Tix bonus. That's a profit of £33.15.
It got better yesterday: a £22.68 stake returned £146.47 from 13% of the dividend. That's two four-figure dividends we've managed to get a slice of, which is very, very hard using traditional 'caveman' perms. This is the beauty of ABCX and Tix!
With £47.64 staked and £204.58 returned, for a profit of £156.94, we'll be winning better than £100 from Tix and placepots on the week (no Tix Picks on Saturday).
Gold Cup day, Thursday, looks super tricky. But remember, there's another prize giveaway today - see below.
I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]
Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.
When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.
Tix Bonus
Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.
Prizes to be won
And, because it's Royal Ascot week, we've got some Tix prizes to give away.
Tuesday to Friday / Saturday
For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.
On the final day of Royal Ascot, Saturday, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.
So that's £300 in prizes this week!
Congratulationsto Mick C, who won £50 on Tuesday; and to Paul M, who won £50 yesterday.
What do you need?
You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]
**
To day three. It's risky banking on the the favourite in the opener but, if not there, then where?
Leg 1 - Norfolk Stakes:
Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore have won the two main juvenile races so far this week and have odds-on Charles Darwin here. But odds-on Whistlejacket was off the ticket for him last year, and they've missed the board every year since Land Force was third in 2018, including with three favourites. Karl Burke's recent record in the race is excellent and, though he's not hit the heights with his juveniles this week yet, Naval Light could change that. I'm taking a bigger chance than the market suggests because I need bullets to fire elsewhere. Will be place laying Charles Darwin to cover at least a part of my stakes.
A - 3 Charles Darwin
B - 1 Afjan, 13 Naval Light
C - 5 Comical Boy, 7 First Legion, 12 London Boy, 14 Sandal's Song, 16 Wise Approach, Unnamed favourite
Leg 2 - King George V Stakes:
As Rory very well articulated in his preview of this race, low is generally unfavoured with middle to high the places to be. Only Hukum (stall 4) has won this from lower than stall 8 (of 16 and 19 runners), and Hukum went on to win two Group 1's, including the King George itself over the same course and distance! You have to be good to overcome a low post. Hoping the market has this right.
A - 5 Serious Contender, 6 Sing Us A Song, 8 Merchant
Leg 3 - Ribblesdale Stakes:
The one I wanted to be with, Garden Of Eden, is friendless this morning; that said, the market seems utterly clueless here with the top six all mainly pink on the odds grids. I'm guessing here and using plenty of ammo.
A - 1 Caspi Star, 2 Catalina Delcarpio, 4 Garden Of Eden, 9 Life Is Beautiful
Leg 4 - Gold Cup:
Eight runners so we don't need any defections! On the face of it, this is a three horse race, with old boy Trawlerman the chuck out. But he is the proven one under these conditions and the trainers are in incedible form. I have had a good bet on the French horse, Candelari, but he'll never have raced on ground this quick; and Illinois is stepping up six furlongs in trip. Not trying to be clever here, just hoping to be lucky - may place lay Illinois to cover stakes if all eight run.
A - 8 Illinois
B - 4 Trawlerman
Leg 5 - Britannia Stakes:
Possibly the toughest race of the week. We're often looking at a midfield to held up runner drawn high, and that's the direction my prayer mat is facing. Hayley gave Docklands 'a Jamie' for Harry Eustace to win this a couple of years ago, and this time Jamie rides for Harry on La Botte (the barrel, used to be a great Italian restaurant in Boscombe). His form ties in with Field Of Gold through Cosmic Year, so he's an auto A. Teroomm is an obvious A pick, too, getting a hold up ride to notch the hat-trick last time and drawn highest of all.
Shout and Fearnot will come from further back, while Raafedd and Parole d'Oro have clear form claims if not optimal draw/run style profiles. This feels like 'goodnight Vienna' territory if we've not already put the cat out (hat tip to the late great Leonard Rossiter, for all that this show hasn't aged well - the jokes, of course, were all at his expense).
A - 2 La Botte, 8 Teroomm
B - 18 Fearnot, 22 Shout, 25 Raafedd, 26 Parole d'Oro
C - 6 Afentiko, 12 Consolidation, 15 Serengeti, 28 Brave Mission, 29 Arctic Grey
Leg 6 - Hampton Court Stakes:
Crikey, when will it end? Well, here, mercifully, as the sixth of six very challenging legs. Tornado Alert looks like he's been asking for ten furlongs all season, though he's backing up quickly after the Derby; Detain brings Prix du Jockey Club placed form but has to show he acts on very quick turf. Trinity College's form ties in with Detain's and he's solid if unspectacular - the sort that wins this race - and that'll do. Throwing some C's into the mix, too, because I fear middle to high might be slightly favoured.
A - 3 Detain, 13 Tornado Alert
B - 14 Trinity College
C - 2 Arabian Force, 5 Glittering Legend, 7 High Stock, 9 Reyenzi, Unnamed favourite
Full ticket view
The truth is that we'll definitely need to be lucky to score today, and on my own tickets - as well as these I've placed below - I'll be 'squeezing the topology', moving a couple more on to A in some places and taking risky bankers in others. But I'm happy to take a wider swipe and try to limit stakes here to £25. Anyhoo...
For pennies today, stakes are £25.44.
Full disclosure: as always, even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!
The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:
And the breakdown by ticket is like this:
Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.
Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 daily through Royal Ascot.
Into 'hump day', better known as Gold Cup day, or Ladies' Day - or even Thursday, or Day 3 - we go. The marathon Group 1 is the feature and, with the weather set fair it will be riding quick, so let's get straight to it.
2.30 THE NORFOLK STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Victor Value
The Norfolk Stakes is a Group 2 run over five furlongs. First run in 1843, it was renamed in 1973 in honour of the 16th Duke of Norfolk, Queen Elizabeth II’s Representative at Ascot from 1945 to 1972. The race achieved its Group 2 status in 2006.
Trends to Note
In recent years, this race has sprung the odd huge surprise. The Ridler (2022) scored at 50/1, and the following year Valiant Force (2023) won at 150/1!
I’m not digging deep into trends today, but from a draw perspective it’s worth noting that horses drawn 11+ are 0 winners from 37 runners, 6 places. That’s an interesting trend given the Exp/Wins=3.28 for those runners.
Contenders
Sixteen have been declared for this year’s Norfolk Stakes, and the first thing that stands out is that short-priced favourite Charles Darwin is drawn in stall 15.
After a good look, just four runners have made my final shortlist:
Charles Darwin: Trained by Aidan O’Brien, the son of No Nay Never has made all to win his last two (of three) starts at Navan. Looked a high-class juvenile last time, visually impressive, and the time backed that up. At a best-priced 13/8 on Tuesday afternoon, he looked value based on form good enough to win the last five renewals. The only negative is his high draw.
Sandal’s Song: Overcame a slow start to show good speed when winning on debut at Gulfstream Park (firm ground). A sprinting type on looks, he’s been purchased by Wathnan Racing, and if he handles a straight track, I think he’ll go very close. Triner George Weaver saddled the 2023 Queen Mary winner, subsequently bought by Wathnan, so he knows what is required to win a Royal Ascot juvenile contest.
Naval Light (Karl Burke): Bought for 360,000 gns at the Craven Breeze-ups by Wathnan Racing. Finished second to Old Is Gold in the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley on racecourse debut. He was slowly away that day and ran green in the early stages of the race but once the penny dropped, finished off well. Burke won this last year with a colt who had won the Beverley race. Retained jockey James Doyle opts for him over Sandal’s Song with James McDonald riding the latter which is no negative.
Afjan: The speedy son of Mehmas overcame greenness to win on debut at Chantilly 18 days ago. He produced a high-class turn of foot to win that day and is open to plenty of improvement. I was impressed with this success, and I think the stiffer Ascot 5f will suit.
Norfolk Stakes Verdict
I only fancy four of the 16 runner’s - cue a big- priced winner like The Ridler or Valiant Force! I will be quite surprised if one of that quartet doesn’t win. Charles Darwin’s form is rock solid and he’s a worthy favourite. However, I want to take him on because of the draw and his price. His nearest market rival is Naval Light who will win races this season and most likely at Group level. However, I was hoping for better than a best priced 4/1. At bigger odds I prefer American challenger Sandal’s Song - he looks a big price to me - and French-trained colt Afjan.
Selection: Afjan – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3.05 THE KING GEORGE V STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)
Presented by Rory Delargy
Despite being over a mile and a half and with the low stalls on the inside these days (it wasn’t ever thus), there is no advantage to be drawn in single figures in the King George V Handicap (or the Duke of Edinburgh over the same track and trip for the three-year-olds); and, to demonstrate, I’ve compiled the results by draw since 2001, which shows that nine horses have won the race from single figure draws, but that ten have won from stall 15 or higher in the same timeframe. So punters should consider those drawn high to be at some sort of advantage, for all that may seem to defy conventional wisdom. In reality, the stiff track confers no advantage to front runners, and those coming from off the pace tend to fan out from the inner rail in the straight, with travelling a little further no hardship in the grand scheme of things.
That isn’t to say that you can’t win from a low draw, but those who do are rarely helped by a position near the rail, except in the rare circumstance where the fastest ground is on the far rail, as it was in 2022, when the race was dominated by those who sat handily. The first six home in the Norfolk Stakes that year were all drawn low, and if that is repeated then you should take note. When the draw on the straight course favours high numbers, then that tends to be repeated on the round course, too, and early signs are that will be the case this year.
It's possible to make all from a wide draw, although those who have done so have tended to keep off the inside rail until near the turn, and recent years have shown a bias towards strong-staying hold-up performers from high-to-mid berths. Last year Going The Distance (stall 18) beat Neski Sherelski (19) and if you listened to Simon Holt’s commentary, you’ll notice that they are called as the last pair to reach the home turn. In 2023, Desert Hero (21) had three or four behind him on the home turn before winning. In contrast the last three positions that year were filled by horses drawn wide who were up with the pace.
On the face of it, Sing Us A Song is likely to be one of the front runners here having made all to win on his handicap debut at Sandown last time, but I think that James Doyle will be more patient than Hector Crouch was there. Sing Us A Song gallops like a stayer and Crouch took him forward last time to utilise his stamina over a trip which is a minimum for him, fending off challenges in the straight and never stronger than up the climb to the line at Sandown.
Given the extra demands on stamina here, there is no need to be aggressive on Sing Us A Song, who strikes me as the type to take another leap forward in form terms for this stiffer test and I hope that Doyle allows him to find his stride in the early stages before launching a bid from off the pace. He is a full-brother to the ill-fated Sir Erec, who was placed in the British Champions Long Distance Cup as a three-year-old and a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, but sadly broke a leg when favourite for the Triumph Hurdle. His dam is also a half-sister to Mahler, who was placed in the St Leger and Melbourne Cup, so all the signs are that this trip and further are going to bring out the best in him. I like him a lot.
Recommendation: Sing Us A Song (Win/Each-way) at 8/1 with bet365 (5 places)
3.40 THE RIBBLESDALE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A mile and a half for three-year-old fillies - an Ascot Oaks if you will. Being so close to the original (and still the best) Epsom variant means we only have one filly - Go Go Boots - coming here from there, and she's not especially fancied by the market. The top three from the betting lists have fared well enough - bagging eight of the last twelve Ribblesdales between them - but the jolly has only two wins in that time.
Aidan and Johnny G (now with Thady G as well) have won most of that dozen, three-quarters in fact, the Ballydoyle man owning most recent bragging rights as he and Ryan Moore have paired up to take the most recent two renewals. Not since Lady Cecil's Riposte won in 2013 has a filly unraced at two won the Ribblesdale, which might be a concern for the top two in the current lists, Serenity Prayer and Catalina Delcarpio.
Serenity Prayer is trained by Andrew Balding and won a traditionally strong Newbury fillies' maiden on debut before beating all bar Whirl in the Musidora, the key Oaks trial, at York last time. Nevertheless, she was more than five lengths inferior to the winner on the Knavesmire though it should of course be noted that Whirl all but won the Oaks, beaten just a neck. After just two starts she can be expected to stride forward on what she's shown to date.
Go Go Boots was only a neck behind Serenity Prayer at York and, if she just didn't handle Epsom, she is over-priced.
The same is true of Catalina Delcarpio whose form figures of 12 mirror Serenity's. She's trained by Paddy Twomey, and also won a maiden easily - at Leopardstown in her case - before running second in a Group 3. That form has not worked out well, though the winner was fourth at Epsom and most of the rest were beaten far enough.
The Moore / O'Brien axis is represented by a far more experienced filly in Garden Of Eden. She's been second and first in a brace of Listed contests either side of her winter break, but was well enough beaten in a couple of mile Group 3's at the start of this term. Stepping up to ten furlongs last time, she led all the way in the Naas Oaks Trial; her pedigree hardly screams she wants to go further but who am I to second guess the great man?
John and Thady run two more candidates as well as Go Go Boots, led by Life Is Beautiful. Thrice raced, she won a Kempton maiden on debut before running second to a nice filly in a novice back at the same track (both mile races). Upped to a mile and a quarter last time saw her run up again, behind the unbeaten Coronation Stakes favourite Falakeyah.
Understudy may be just that here. She's got a lovely staying pedigree - by Sea The Stars out of a Selkirk mare - but this is huge leap in grade from a Class 5 Southwell novice. Still, she's bound to be capable of better in time.
Charlie Johnston saddled Caspi Star to be third to Oaks winner Minnie Hauk in the Cheshire Oaks. She was beaten half the distance Serenity Prayer was by Whirl, with Minnie Hauk edging that one out, so 10/1 this lass feels more attractive than 3/1 the jolly. She's improved a stone and more in two runs since getting bested by Lady Vivian, though that one has also stepped forward and doubled up in a handicap at the Chester May meeting last time.
Aidan O'Brien also runs Ecstatic and Island Hopping, the former another experienced filly for whom excuses can be made the last couple of starts: messy race, no run at Newbury and may not have handled the soft turf at Navan the time before. She does need them, however. Island Hopping was behind Garden Of Eden in Listed class last time but may be slightly more stoutly bred and may also be enlivened by the first time blinkers.
Suggestion: I think the percentage play is Garden Of Eden at around 5/1 win only despite the stamina reservation. She did seem to improve for the extra quarter mile last time and, if she can do likewise for a further two-eights, she's value against the inexperienced pair atop the market. Caspi Star at 10's might be an interesting small each way play based on her Chester run..
4.20 THE GOLD CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A smallish field of eight line up for the Blue Riband and, in the absence of the sadly retired Kyprios, it's a more open contest than might otherwise have been the case. The question is, does Aidan O'Brien have a ready made replacement for his injured star stayer in the shape of Illinois?
Four-year-old have won all bar four of the last dozen Gold Cups, and of the quartet of older winners, three were repeaters who'd won prevoiusly aged four - Kyprios once and Stradivarius twice. Without a repeater, the youngest eligible age group looks the right focus. It's another race where Messrs O'Brien and the Gosdens have something of a hegemony with both well invested this time around.
The favourite, Illinois, comes from Ballydoyle and is from the penultimate crop of mega-sire Galileo. Winner of the Queen's Vase this time last year, he finished the season with second in the St Leger; this season's pipe opener was a cosy success in the Ormonde Stakes and he comes here in fine fettle, the second from Chester going a place better at York last weekend. This is, however, a step up in trip and in class, Illinois never having raced beyond the extended mile and three quarters of the St Leger. He seems an uncomplicated sort so ought to give himself every chance of relaxing into a good rhythm, though he does usually race handily.
Second choice is the Gosdens' Trawlerman, a perennial forward goer. He stays well and acts on quick turf as he showed when a length behind Kyprios in the race last year, a repeat of which would likely be good enough to take top honours this time around. He won by five lengths on his return from Dubai, in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last month. He's likely to bid to make all but, at seven years young, time may not be on his side against less exposed rivals.
One of those is the French raider Candelari, trained by Francis-Henri Graffard. He made his debut on the all-weather through the winter before seamlessly reverting to turf; his second grass spin, last time out, was a staying on win in the almost two miles Prix Vicomtesse Vigier, a Group 1. A feature of his races is switching off and rattling home late: he'll not have too much time to gather his thoughts in the short home straight at Ascot but he looks like he'll relish the extra range. This will be just his sixth career start so there's probably more in the lockeur.
It would be a shock, to me at least, if any of the rest were to win. Sweet William was five lengths behind Trawlerman last term and is a year older now; Wonder Legend improve 16lb on the all-weather through the winter but this is big ask (he's vaguely interesting e/w); and I don't expect the veterans Coltrane, Yashin or Dubai Future to, well, have a future, in the context of this G1 at any rate.
Illinois might be the one but he's a fair bit to prove at his sub-2/1 quote. I think Trawlerman likely just sets it up for a younger closer - though fair play to him if I'm wrong on that; and so the one I'm siding with is Frenchie Candelari, whose chance will depend to some degree on Mikael Barzelona getting his fractions right. He doesn't always. Will it be Ooh la la! or Zut alors?!
Suggestion: Back CANDELARI to win at 10/3 (or 3/1 or better).
5.00 THE BRITANNIA STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)
Presented by David Massey
The Thirsk piece of form where Terroom beat Parole D’Oro is where I’m going to start this form guide for the Brittania, as the pair of them feature highly towards the top of the market, and I think it might be a strong piece of form.
Terroom came out on top by ¾l that day, but Parole D’Oro travelled like the best horse (traded 1.03 in the run) and just couldn’t quite finish the job off. Terroom went on to show the form as solid by winning again at Haydock, beating Tilted Kilt ¾l.
Going back to Thirsk, Parole D’Oro was giving Terroom 2lb that day, yet gets 4lb today, plus there’s the addition of a tongue tie, which you’d like to think would help him see it out a little stronger. That 6lb turnaround in the weights makes me think Parole d’Oro can reverse form today, and I like where he’s berthed, in stall 24, with a potential pace angle in The Lost King next door in 25 to give him a tow into it.
At 33s and bigger, despite what looks a moderate draw, Mr Chaplin has to be on the shortlist too. We liked him a lot, physically, when winning a nursery at Glorious Goodwood last year (paddock pick) and, off the back of that, he took his chance against The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court in the Group 3 Acomb at York. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he was unable to land a blow against such classy opposition but ran respectably and was spotted running on late. He tried making all in the Flying Scotsman on his final start of last year and on the figures ran his best race of the season to finish fourth.
He didn’t reappear until May this season when eighth at Goodwood but that doesn’t begin to tell the story, as he was in a good position to challenge two furlongs out but was constantly denied a run up the rail - a horror story we’re all too familiar with at that track - and in the end, Richard Kingscote accepted the situation and allowed him to come home in his own time. He lost multiple places late as a result, and to me he shaped as if he retains all of his ability. A mile today is a new test for him but the way he finished off at Goodwood when winning over seven suggests he might even improve a bit for it. If the draw does beat him today, keep him in mind for something similar in the near future.
Middle draws certainly didn’t hamper the chances of anyone on Day One, and Raafedd’s stall 14, smack in the middle, looks a very good place to work from. You couldn’t help but be impressed with the way he beat Accentuate at Newbury last time out, leading a full two furlongs out, then powering clear and geared down to win two lengths. The second did the form no harm when scoring by three lengths at Windsor last week, giving the form a very solid look, and the time figure for Raafedd’s win at Newbury was good too.
This step up to a mile will surely suit him even better, and there has to be more to come from this son on Teofilo, you fancy. He rounds out my three against the field for the race.
Three against the field: Parole d'Oro 11/1, Raafedd 11/1, Mr Chaplin 33/1
5.35 THE HAMPTON COURT STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)
Presented by Gavin Priestley
TRENDS
A typical Hampton Court winner has yet to win at Group level (15 of the last 15 winners), has an official rating of 103+ (14/15), has raced 3-6 times in their career (14/15), came from the top 4 in the betting (13/15) and returned less than 8/1 (14/15). 13 of the last 15 winners had won at least one of their last three starts and had finished top 6 in all of those three starts (14/15).
3 of the last 15 winners last raced at Epsom (from just 9 such runners).
In the last 15 years, all 22 runners that had their last start in a class 3-5 race, all 15 horses that last ran in the 2000 Guineas, all 12 horses that last ran in a Group 2, and all 6 horses that last ran on the all-weather have been beaten.
RACE ANALYSIS:
A cracking looking race with the Aidan O'Brien French Derby 4th Trinity College heading the betting. With the first six home that day finishing in a heap, and with just a length and a half covering them all, it's hard to say what the form's worth. On his previous start Trinity College had been beaten by the now re-opposing Sea Scout at Epsom and, with that rival trading as a 66/1 outsider here, that's either a great price on him or a worthless piece of form. With Sea Scout subsequently finishing 8th in the Dante and 11th in the Derby I'm leaning towards the latter.
Traditionally this is a race for those who missed the Derby due to stamina doubts or those that did run in the Derby but failed to get home.
One horse who the latter definitely applies to is the 2000 Guineas 4th TORNADO ALERT who looks an absolutely massive price if over his Derby exertions from just 12 days ago. A staying on 4th at Newmarket over a mile, where he was just four lengths off Field of Gold, he was doing some good work late on and caught the eye of a lot of expert judges. His trainer was happy to talk up his chances for the Derby but, on the day, the 1m4f trip seemed to find him out and he patently didn't stay the last couple of furlongs.
He looks sure to appreciate the drop back to this intermediate 10f trip and he is one of the few runners in the field with genuine Group 1 form. He scores highly on the trends and his trainer won this in 2017 (stable have had just one runner in the race since) with a 113-rated horse that came here on the back of a 5th in the Derby. Top international jockey James McDonald is booked and there's so much to like about his chances I'll be shocked if he isn't involved at the finish.
SELECTION: TORNADO ALERT 1pt EW
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6.10 THE BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)
Presented by Dave Renham
This race was taken off the calendar in 2015 but reinstated in 2020. Hence in terms of trends I am looking at the last ten renewals, which cover 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024.
10-year trends
Market
Just one win for horses from the top four of the betting. (English Oak last year when fav).
Six winners priced between 12/1 and 18/1; the other three were 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1.
Age
4yos have won five of the last ten but they have provided 40% of the total runners. 4yos do have the best placed record (double other age groups combined).
7yos and older have a poor record win 0 wins and just 5 places from 47 runners.
LTO Price
Seven of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter on their most recent start. This equates to 70% of the winners from 40% of the total runners.
Draw
The number of runners each year has fluctuated between 23 and 29 runners so for my draw analysis I am using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail. Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.
Looking at the last 10 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account, so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:
Draw position in relation to stands rail
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5 stalls away
0.58
0.59
6 to 10 stalls away
0.61
0.64
11 to 15 stalls away
0.45
0.49
16 to 20 stalls away
0.47
0.48
21 or more stalls away
0.42
0.44
As the numbers show horses drawn within ten stalls of the stands’ rail have had a significant edge in this race over the past ten years.
Run Style
Now I am looking at the PRBs for each run style group based on the last ten years. The splits are:
Run Style
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group
0.49
0.49
Prominent
0.37
0.42
Mid Division
0.52
0.53
Held up
0.57
0.58
Based on these past figures, hold up horses have had the edge here, followed by mid pack runners. Indeed, eight of the last ten winners came from one of these two run styles.
Onto my favoured candidates:
Never So Brave – Now with Andrew Balding having formerly been with Sir Michael Stoute. He has had one run this season at Chester where he pulled far too hard and then had to be switched just over a furlong from home. Was the fastest finisher in the field that day running 0.23 secs quicker than anything else in the final furlong. Finished second but should have won. He has been raised 4lb which looks fair. Is drawn next to English Brave in 28 and has the assistance of the excellent Oisin Murphy in the saddle. Often races prominently but hopefully he will be ridden with a little more restraint.
English Oak – He won this race last year extremely impressively off a handicap mark of 99. He is one 1lb higher here. That performance was rated at 114 by Racing Post Ratings. Since then, he has failed to register a win in seven starts but his last run when sixth at Newbury showed some promise in a race that was slowly run. Last year, this race was run at a very strong pace and despite there being no genuine front runners in the field one would expect the same again here which will play to his strengths. Draw 27 should be OK.
No Retreat – He ran well at the start of the year in Dubai winning a decent handicap at Meydan in February before finishing a neck second to Silver Sword at the same track in an even better handicap three weeks later. He was down to run in the Victoria Cup last month but was withdrawn on the morning of the race. He then went to Haydock where he finished a decent third. No Retreat has been very consistent, always making the top three throughout his career. He races off 97 which is 3lbs higher than his Dubai second mentioned above and he looks overpriced at around 25/1. The draw in 1 though is a concern, unless earlier straight track races suggest otherwise. Has raced midfield / near the back in four of his last five runs so hopefully we see the same tactics employed here.
Gorak – At a big price Gorak is interesting. He ran in the race in 2023 and 2024 finishing 12th both times. However, he had valid excuses both times. In 2024 he was badly drawn but was a close up second on his part of the track. In 2023 he stuck to the stands rail and finished first of six in his group, but the centre of the course was strongly favoured that day. If he gets a run he will be drawn 10 which is still lower than ideal, but the likely price will compensate.
Conclusion
English Oak would win this easily if back to last year’s form but at 5/1 or thereabouts the price is just too tight IMO.
Suggestion
Never So Brave e/w at 8/1 and No Retreat e/w at 25/1
If Gorak runs has a small e/w saver at around 33/1
Several bookies are going six places (Bet 365, Betfred, Boyal Sports, Corals, Paddy Power to name but five), seven places with Sky Bet.
This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'm making a suggested placepot permutation each day.
It started well on Tuesday: although the perm only caught 2% of the dividend, that was enough to return £58.11 from a £24.96 stake, including 5% Tix bonus. That's a profit of £33.15.
Let's get to Wednesday, Day 2. And remember, there's another prize giveaway today - see below.
I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]
Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.
When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.
Tix Bonus
Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.
Prizes to be won
And, because it's Royal Ascot week, we've got some Tix prizes to give away
Tuesday to Friday
For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.
Saturday
On the final day of Royal Ascot, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.
So that's £300 in prizes this week!
What do you need?
You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]
**
OK, that's the set up. Let's get to it. The first question is where to go narrow and where to spread out. My inclination was to be narrow in the Group 1's but the Queen Anne and King Charles III are very open, and I hate the 'seven runner with an odds on' feel of the St James's Palace!
Leg 1 - Queen Mary Stakes:
After yesterday's Coventry, it's tempting to bank on True Love, whose form with Gstaad stands out, as does her high draw. But I'll throw in Lennilu and Zelaina on B, too. Mind you, the first three home last year were 22/1, 50/1, 50/1..!
A - 23 True Love
B - 11 Lennilu, 25 Zelaina
Leg 2 - Queen's Vase:
There is a lot of confidence behind the French raider, Asmarani, but I prefer Shackleton and Carmers. Devil's Advocate has the form but not the proven stamina.
A - 3 Carmers, 10 Shackleton
Leg 3 - Duke Of Cambridge Stakes:
The mile trip is a bit on the short side for the very smart Cinderella's Dream but she does have an electric gear change which is just the ticket for this. She's an A banker, fingers crossed.
A - 1 Cinderella's Dream
Leg 4 - Prince Of Wales's Stakes:
Anmaat is too old on trends but bang there on form. A. Los Angeles fits on both. Also A. Hard to see them both off the ticket. Facteur Cheval is an interesting outsider and I might back him win/place on the tote: he'll pay overs.
A - 1 Anmaat, 5 Los Angeles
Leg 5 - Royal Hunt Cup:
Tricky, tricky, tricky. I'm scattering here. My ante post bet was Tokenomics and he's on A, along with all the favourites, and Ancient Rome (Charlie Hills has won this twice since 2019 and it looks like a Jamie Spencer special). Plenty more on B plus unnamed favourite.
A - 5 Qiraat, 6 Ancient Rome, 14 The Liffey, 23 Fox Legacy, 27 My Cloud, 29 Tokenomics
B - 1 Arabian Light, 16 Ebt's Guard, 19 Bullet Point, 25 Greek Order, Unnamed favourite
Leg 6 - Kensington Palace Stakes:
Another tough leg, and should bolster the dividend. Rainbows Edge and Serialise are well(ish) drawn fancied runners and go on A. I'll add Arolla to A, too. Snellen and Sky Safari and Arisaig on B. Nine on C, including unnamed favourite - we'll need to have gone all A's for these C's to count!
A - 1 Rainbows Edge, 3 Arolla, 17 Serialise
B - 2 Snellen, 4 Arisaig, 18 Sky Safari
C - 6, 7, 9, 10, 15, 21, 23, 24, UNF
Full ticket view
I've gone very narrow early in hope of having some funds to splurge in the last two legs. Fair chance we're sunk before that, but that's the game, right?
For pennies, with 2p's (x4) on the A ticket, it comes to £22.68 stakes. A single placed entry from A in each leg gives an 8p winning line, but of course it's possible to get more than one in each.
Full disclosure: as always, even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!
The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:
And the breakdown by ticket is like this:
Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.
Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 daily through Royal Ascot.
It's Day Two, Wednesday, at the Royal Ascot jamboree and we're blessed once more with a magnificent seven races headlined by the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes for older horses over a mile and quarter. As with each weekday of the Royal meeting, I'm sharing preview responsibilities with a collective of talented and shrewd racing writers. Still, it's me on the kick off legs and we start with some classy young fillies in the...
2.30 THE QUEEN MARY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A massive field of 25 juvenile fillies go to post for the five furlong Queen Mary Stakes. Most have had just one, or perhaps two, runs so form is thin on the ground; virtually all of them will be capable of more than they've shown so far. So how do choose among them? We could try some trends.
The first thing I noticed was a draw angle. In the last ten years, field sizes have ranged from 17 to 26. The winner in 2023 was drawn 26 of 26. The year before she was in 17 of 21; in 2021, she was 21 of 21; in Covid year, of course, the winner was drawn 1 of 18!; and before that, 22 of 25, 16 of 22, 20 of 23, 14 of 17, and 17 of 20. These are 'actual' stall positions after accounting for non-runners.
Last year's winner, Leovanni, exited stall 10, and the second - a 50/1 shot - departed from stall 22 of 24. It probably helps to be high, or at least close to either rail (though, given jockeys tend to race together, that probably still means high). Clear as mud?
In spite of the enormous fields, the first or second favourite has won six times and returned a profit on level stakes.
An American-trained filly has won four times in the last decade, most recently George Weaver's Crimson Advocate in 2023. Karl Burke has won two of the last three Queen Mary renewals, and his three entries were 3rd/5th/7th of 26 in the non-winning year.
The last eight winners all had a prominent run style, and the other two in the ten year trends led.
Five of the last ten winners were unbeaten in one before the race; only the Wes Ward speedball Lady Aurelia, in 2015, had yet to win, and even three outsiders (18/1, 22/1 and 25/1) were last day scorers.
Those are some reasonable angles to go at. The high drawn last day winners are America and Viamarie, both big prices. The top two in the market are Zelaina, trained by Karl Burke for last year's winning owner, Wathnan Racing, and American raider Lennilu, trained by Pat Biancone. Both fancied fillies are drawn middle, which didn't stop Leovanni last year but may be sub-optimal. I'll also throw in Secret Hideaway and Harry's Girl, whose form looks strong.
Karl Burke runs two this time, Zelaina being much the more obvious. As a £650,000 breeze up purchase she's entitled to be fast and she lived up to that billing when sprinting away from her field on debut at Nottingham, eventually scoring by almost three lengths. The time wasn't dazzling and she got a highly efficient ride (finishing speed percentage was 100.85%) but it was visually very impressive: quick from the gate, travelled strongly, pulled clear. She's just not much of a price.
The US filly, Lennilu, started with a win on the slop at Keeneland before shipping down to Florida for a turf stakes race. She showed good early speed there - perenially a feature of American entries at Royal Ascot - and galloped right through the line. That was a flat five around a bend, however, and this is a straight five with a stiff finish. I expect she'll be typically front rank through three furlongs and then who knows? Luis Saez, one of the world's best riders, makes his British debut.
While we're guessing as to the substance of the form with those once raced fillies, Harry's Girl has run twice and winners have emerged from her encounters. Of the two runs, her second in the Marygate has been advertised with the three subsequent runners - having finished 6th, 8th and 9th at York - all winning. But the Marygate winner and third, Secret Hideaway and Love Olivia, the latter being Burke's other entry, also rock up for this dance.
Love Olivia blazed the trail in the Marygate but was spent by the time Secret Hideaway, trained by Adrian Keatley, wore down Harry's Girl (Richard Hannon) in the last strides having been off the speed for much of the race. It's likely the winner is the best of the three and I'm a little surprised she's a longer price than the filly she beat. They're drawn adjacent, in 18 and 19, which is ostensibly a positive for both. It's worth noting that the Marygate winner has won the Queen Mary four times since 2006.
In the long grass - it's a race that has rewarded such boldness on occasion - Viamarie comes from the Kempton poly to the Ascot turf which can kindly be described as an unfashionable route. But she showed a lot of late speed that day having been slowest from the gate. She'd need to improve her start, which she ought to given the benefit of that experience, and she'll be running on late, though perhaps/probably too late.
Brian Meehan has run 26 juveniles at Royal Ascot since 2009, winning twice (including 80/1 Rashabar in last year's Coventry) and notching a second, three thirds and a fifth placed finish. As such, his America is not without hope. She was only third on debut, in a 6f Yarmouth maiden, seeming not to quite get home. The fourth and seventh, as well as America herself, have won since. Dropped to the fairly stiff five furlongs at Bath last time, she showed good mid-race speed to take the lead and ran on gamely. The second won next time. Stall 24 might help her cause.
True Love's form was given an almighty boost yesterday, with her last day conqueror and stablemate Gstaad bolting up in the Coventry. She was only three-quarters of a length behind him, a literal interpretation of which means she's home for all money. But Aidan has not fared well in the Queen Mary: it's one of the few Royal Ascot non-handicaps he's never won.
Society Kiss, a maiden winner over course and distance, and Staya, another punchy breeze up purchase who won her sole start, at Yarmouth, are others to consider in a race where we'll all be wiser afterwards!
Suggestion: Try small win savers on Lennilu at 15/2 and Staya at 12/1, and a slightly bolder each way play on Secret Hideaway at 22/1 (5 places with Sky/PP). Hail (Queen) Mary players could do worse than throw a miniscule dart at America, 40/1 with 5 places. Naturally, the short-priced favourite might beat them all.
3.05 THE QUEEN'S VASE (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A baker's dozen is entered for the 1m6f Queen's Vase, Group 2 for three-year-olds. The race was run over two miles prior to 2017 when it also upgraded from Listed class to its current status.
Aidan O'Brien has won half of the most recent twelve renewals, though Illinois's win last year was the Ballydoyle maestro's first since 2020. Ryan Moore has ridden four of Aidan's five winners since 2015.
The longest priced winner since the race changes eight years ago was Kemari in 2021; he returned 15/2 second favourite. The top three in the betting have had the top spot on the podium in a scarcely relenting half nelson since 2003, only Sword Fighter - Aidan's non-Ryan-ridden winner - returning north of 15/2. For completeness, the 2007 winner, Mahler, was fourth favourite when winning at 7/1. The other 20 of the last 22 winners were all top three in the market.
Aloft in 2015 is the only winner since 2002 to start from a double figure stall, exiting 'actual' stall 10 of 13. Five of the last 12 winners were drawn 2-5.
Only two of the last twelve winners were held up, with two - including last year's scorer - making all and five more racing handily (three were mid-division).
So, on recent evidence, we're after a fancied horse from a lowish stall with a bit of tactical speed to hold a position in the front half of the field. The two which most obviously fit the bill are Shackleton and Carmers.
Shackleton is the Aidan/Ryan entry and about as obvious a bet as you will find all week. A son of Camelot, he's stepping up fully half a mile from a couple of ten furlong races where he was outpaced. He ought to have the gears to find a handy slot early from stall three and, though stamina is unproven, connections' fingerprints are all over this one.
Paddy Twomey send Carmers, an inexperienced but highly progressive sort who is two from two, both this season. He started out in a Ballinrobe maiden and followed up in a Navan Listed contest, easily by three lengths - both races so far over a mile and five. So no stamina doubts, some proven class and lots of upside potential. This is a bigger field, though, and a third career start in six weeks. He has a very similar profile to the 2023 winner, Gregory.
Francis-Henri Graffard sends the Aga Khan Estate's Sottsass colt Asmarani across la Manche, and he's another which was unraced at two. In three goes this year, he was second either side of a Saint-Cloud maiden score, most recently in a Group 3. All three runs were on soft or very soft, but it is presumed that the trainer believes he'll improve for better ground. He'll need to on the face of it.
The Gosdens have Devil's Advocate, a staying on fourth in the Dante at York when last seen. He's another for whom stamina is not assured, being by Too Darn Hot, a reasonable miler influence. His damsire is Nathaniel, which offer plenty more hope, and his half-brother was second at a mile and a half. Still not sure! Nevertheless, that Dante run is probably the best form shown so far notwithstanding that many will improve for the longer distance here.
I'm keeping this fairly simple and siding with SHACKLETON, with a small saver on Carmers. I'll let the rest beat me, which they very well might do...
Suggestion: Back Shackleton at 3/1 or bigger. Save on Carmers at 5/1 or bigger.
3.40 THE DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by David Massey
You have to say that, even with a 3lb penalty to carry for her Dahlia Stakes win, Cinderella’s Dream is going to be hard to beat here.
She panned Elmalka 4½ lengths there and even though the latter is dropping back to a mile, which will help, it’s hard to see how she turns that form around. In any case, that was Cinderella’s Dream merely backing up what she’d shown in two previous starts, and she looks every bit as good at 4 as she did last year. She probably needs no more than a repeat of that Dahlia effort to come out on top, with her nearest rival on ratings, Fallen Angel, looking to bounce back after a lesser effort in the Lockinge. She looked very much in need of the run beforehand and sweated up badly, so can possibly be forgiven, but you’d not want to see similar behaviour today. She’s going to be tried in a pair of cheekpieces after that below par Newbury effort, which might help her cause, but she just has a few question marks over her at present.
Running Lion is of some interest now she drops back to a mile. Winner of this race last year, beating Laurel a ready two lengths, she’s been running perfectly well over further, her second in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on Arc day as good a piece of form as anything she’s shown; but I think she’s best around this sort of trip, rather than further. Her form is very hit-and-miss, so the addition of cheekpieces could be a catalyst for her to return to her best, which would give her a fair chance. Definitely not an each-way bet, but a small saver on her at 8-1? I couldn’t put you off.
One Look keeps progressing with every start and her ½ length second to Porta Fortuna in the Lanwades Stakes rates a very good effort. She tries hard, which I always think is half the battle won with fillies, and might not have finished improving yet. She’s been highly consistent, which isn’t something you can say for many of these, but the one time she tackled good to firm ground was a disappointment, so she does have that question to answer.
Of those at double-figure prices, Soprano, who can’t have it quick enough, is probably the one that appeals most. There’s no doubt she has to take another step forward form-wise, but she at least comes here fit and running well after her win at Kempton in the Listed Snowdrop Fillies Stakes. She’s a keen-going sort and could be vulnerable late, but on what promises to be rattling fast ground, she could be a danger to all if allowed to bounce along on the front end with a soft lead.
Selection: Cinderella's Dream at 2/1
4.20 THE PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Rory Delargy
Always one of the classiest contests of the entire week since being renewed in the late 1960’s, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes isn’t a race to look for shocks, with only two winners at double-digit odds since Lear Spear won at 20/1 in 1999 for David Elsworth and owner Raymond Tooth.
Continuous is likely to go to the front, but it’s far from certain he will make it an end-to-end gallop, as stablemate Los Angeles is at his best when close to the front end himself, and it’s likely Continuous will set easy enough fractions if allowed, with a view to allowing Los Angeles to get to the front early in the straight where he can get his challengers lining up for a fight. He was seen to excellent effect in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, leading two furlongs out and battling back after being headed by Anmaat.
He relishes a head-to-head and Ryan Moore would love a repeat of the tactics which saw him win at the Curragh, with Ascot’s stiff finish suiting the strong-staying Los Angeles down to the ground.
Anmaat won the Champion Stakes over C&D in the autumn and was having his first race since when narrowly denied by Los Angeles at the Curragh, and he could come forward for the run, which gives him claims of turning the tables. He travels strongly for all he can take a bit of time to hit full stride and although he was a 40/1 shot when scoring here in the autumn, there was no hint of fluke about the result, and his Group 1 record now reads two wins and a close second from three runs, having also taken the Prix d’Ispahan in 2023. He is a danger if Jim Crowley can keep Los Angeles and Ryan Moore in his cross-hairs.
Facteur Cheval has been placed in six of his 11 starts at the top level, but his only win in those races came in the Dubai Turf at Meydan last year. He was unplaced in the latest running of that race, and may not be quite the force of old at the age of six, so is passed over. Sea The Fire, on the other hand, looked better than ever when running away with the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York last time, and has been supplemented for this race at some cost. She has place claims, but seven runs at Group 1 level have failed to reap any reward, and that counts against her win claims.
Map of Stars has yet to race on ground quicker than good (according to Timeform) but ran well when second in the Prix Ganay last time and is another with place claims if handling slightly firmer turf. Ombudsman is stepping up in class after losing his unbeaten record in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last time and isn’t the easiest to weigh up. He is hard to dismiss given his largely progressive profile, and is worth including in exotics.
Win: Los Angeles Exotics: Los Angeles & Anmaat (Reverse Exacta)
Los Angeles/Anmaat over Sea The Fire, Map of Stars, Ombudsman (Trifecta Box)
5.00 THE ROYAL HUNT CUP (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)
Presented by Dave Renham
Let me start by examining the 15-year trends for the Royal Hunt Cup.
Market factors
Four single figure priced winners, eleven double figure priced winners, nine of which were 16/1+ and six were 20/1+.
Weight
In terms of weight carried the ideal has been to be at the mid to lower end of the weights. If you work the average weight of the runners each year, horses carrying the average weight or lower have won 11 of the last 15 renewals.
Age
4yos have 10 wins from 184 runners (5.4%); 17% placed.
5yos have 3 wins from 105 runners (2.9%); 15% placed.
6yo and older have 2 wins from 140 runners (1.4%); 9% placed.
4yos clearly have the best record.
Draw
The draw in big field handicaps at Ascot on the straight track can really play a part, but this is the first big field handicap of the week so at this stage there are no strong clues. Looking at the last 15 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the ‘rags’. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account, so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:
Stalls
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5
0.44
0.44
6 to 10
0.47
0.53
11 to 15
0.52
0.59
16 to 20
0.59
0.63
21 to 25
0.48
0.53
26 to 30
0.49
0.51
It seems that middle draws of 11 to 20 have done best especially those drawn 16 to 20.
Run Style
I have taken a similar approach for run style looking at the PRBs for each group. These are:
Run Style
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group
0.40
0.44
Prominent
0.42
0.45
Mid Division
0.53
0.57
Held up
0.57
0.60
7 of the last 15 races have been won by hold-up horses and they have the best PRB figures too. This is the type of race where a midfield or back of the field sit early is preferable.
Recent form trends
11 of the last 15 winners finished in the top four LTO.
Horses that have won at least once in their last five starts have been twice as likely to win compared to those who have failed a register a win in their last five runs.
Analysis
I backed Volterra a few weeks back, but he has not been declared. Below are what I feel are the main players.
My Cloud – He has never been out of the first two in his five careers starts and is two from two this year. He is clearly progressing and despite being 15lb higher than the beginning of the year there is probably more to come. The price though is short for such a competitive race with a such a big field. Drawn 32.
Fox Legacy – He was a 12-length winner over 10f last year when trained by Sir Michael Stoute and he has switched to the Andrew Balding yard for this season. He won well on his reappearance over 9f at Newmarket and despite being raised 6lb he may have more to come. Tends to adopt a midfield run style which is a positive. He has yet to win at a mile but four of the last eight winners of this race also had not won over this trip. Drawn 11 which should be ok.
Greek Order – Back in the UK after an unsuccessful time in the States, Greek Order has strong claims on his best form. His second in the 2023 Cambridgeshire when trained by the Charlton stable highlights his ability and his potential claims here, especially if adopts his normal hold up style. He is now with Michael Bell who is having his best season by far for many years. I noted money at 70s on Betfair in the not-too-distant past but that was immediately snapped up and the price has just continued to drop and drop. Drawn 30. Based on the current price it is not a bet for me anymore, but I expect a decent run.
For those looking for a huge price that may offer each way value there are two that I can see running well.
La Trinidad – La Trinidad tends to ply his trade in handicaps up North. His record on good to firm ground is four wins and three placed from 12 runs and amazingly he is five wins from six in the month of June. He is now an 8yo which is a negative race trend, but he actually seems to be improving. His two runs this year have seen two decent third placed efforts, and last year he won off 92 and 96 – his two highest winning marks. His hold up style is a positive and looks well berthed in 18. With plenty of bookmakers offering extra places, he may sneak into one of those at big odds.
Epictetus - He was rated as high as 113 in 2023 when trained by the Gosdens and won a Group 3 and was not disgraced in a couple of runs at Group 2 level. 2024 saw him run just twice and both were disappointing. Now with Jamie Osborne he was 5th to My Cloud LTO beaten around 5 lengths on his reappearance in May. He’s down to a mark of 101 so if he comes on for that run then as with La Trinidad, at big odds, he looks to be one for those bookies offering extra places. Drawn in 29 and he is likely to be played late by Saffie.
Suggestion
Half stake on
Fox Legacy e/w at 12/1
Split the other half of the stake into two smaller punts on
La Trinidad 40/1 & Epictetus 50/1 both e/w
Most bookies are going 6 places, 7 with Sky Bet/Paddy Power.
5.35 THE KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Fillies' Handicap)
Presented by Gavin Priestley
A new handicap introduced to the meeting for the first time in 2021 for four-year-old and upwards fillies and mares. We have just four years of data and I'm wary of using such a small sample size but if we include the first four home in the four runnings it gives us a bit more information to work with.
Looking at these 16 runners we can see that 4yo's won all 4 renewals and fill 14 of the 16 win and places
All 16 win and places went to horses that had run at least 4 times and all 16 had finished top 8 last time out
All 4 winners and 13 of the 16 win and places had raced in the previous 45 days with just 1 placer from 11 runners who had been rested more than 50 days
All 13 of the runners that last raced on the AW have been beaten (3 placed)
The 3 British trained runners had their last run in a class 3 or 4 race and were stepping up or dropping down in distance (from 7f & 1m2f) while the Irish trained winner last ran in a 7f Listed race
All 37 horses that had their last start over a mile have been beaten although 7 have been placed
Using these trends would lead us to a shortlist of fpur runners including a couple of outsiders who last ran 4th and 5th in a Listed race over 10f at Haydock. Francophone is tried in first time cheekpieces and Charlie Johnston's 4yo filly was an easy winner of a handicap the last time she ran over a mile. She hasn't been getting home over the longer trip in her two starts this year and is an interesting contender back over a mile at around 40/1.
The other runner from that Haydock race, Ambiente Amigo, won a Listed race at Nottingham earlier in the season (well beaten 5th won a handicap next time out) and was 13 lengths adrift of See The Fire in the Group 2 Middleton at York but was within a length and a quarter of the highly rated second (113) and third (107) that day. She had led at the two-furlong pole before she, and the rest of the field, were readily brushed aside by the runaway winner and she could appreciate the drop back to a mile. Her trainer puts up a 7lb claimer who has incredibly won on three of her last four rides (including for this trainer) and she's another who could outrun her odds.
Roger Charlton's Arolla split a couple of 107 and 106 rated fillies in a Listed 7f contest at Musselburgh 11 days ago on her seasonal reappearance; she raced prominently there and kept on well through the final furlong. She'd won her maiden over a mile and was a very easy winner of a novice event on her next start so she's another who should appreciate returning to a mile, although a 4lb rise for that Listed 2nd last time means she races off 100 for this which looks a little high to me for her handicap debut.
The fourth filly on the shortlist is Andrew Balding's Miss Information who was a beaten favourite at the Epsom Derby meeting under a 5lb penalty for winning at Newmarket on her start before. She has raced mainly over 7f and was a well beaten favourite on her only try at a mile to date and, while the ground will be no problem, she has struggled when racing off a rating in the low 90's. Her 3rd in a big field big pot 7f handicap at York last August was very decent form that would give her every chance, but with doubts about her getting the trip and her current rating I'm going to pass.
From the four fillies that made the Trends cut I'm going to take a chance on the James Owen 4yo AMBIENTE AMIGO, under her in-form jockey. This filly will go on the ground and, you could also argue, is quite well treated on some of her form earlier in the season. The drop back from 10f is the big imponderable but she's been bang there at the mile before fading out of the running on her last two starts over further. At odds of around 33/1 I'm willing to take the chance she won't be inconvienced by the trip too much.
SELECTION: AMBIENTE AMIGO 1/2pt EW 33/1 (5 places)
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6.10 THE WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)
Presented by Victor Value
The Windsor Castle Stakes concludes Wednesday’s card at Royal Ascot, and I was able to find the winner last year so let's hope for a repeat.
Trends to Note
The ten-year stats (based on 239 qualifying runners) reveal a few interesting patterns:
The market holds up well. Big shocks are rare. Horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger are 0/142, with just 6 places.
Draw bias exists — unlike Tuesday’s Coventry Stakes, there’s a clear edge for those drawn in the first or final quarters of the stalls. Runners drawn in the middle two quarters are 1/125, with 11 places.
Only 4 of the last 10 winners had won on their previous start. Interestingly, last-time-out winners have underperformed by 44% compared market expectations.
Another solid angle: since 2015, all winners had started 9/1 or shorter on their most recent run. Those who went off 10/1+ last time out are 0/46, with 5 placing.
Contenders:
Twenty-four runners go to post but, despite the field size, just five caught my eye.
Rogue Legend made it 2 from 3 when making all at Tipperary 22 days ago. He tops the Racing Post Ratings coming into this, and his form would have been good enough to win the last five renewals of this race. This is his first run on ground quicker than good, but if he handles it, he’s a worthy favourite and the most likely winner.
Old Is Gold built on debut promise (behind Military Code) here by landing the bet365 Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley 25 days ago. He travelled well and ran on well and I was taken with his performance. Now running in Wathnan Racing colours and trained by Andrew Balding, who won this race in 2020. Big player.
Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2015 and runs two, Kansas and First Approach. Ryan Moore rides Kansas, which looks the yard’s number one. He’s hit the frame on all three starts without winning, but he’s shown plenty of speed. If Moore can settle him in this big field, he’s in the mix.
First Approach beat Kansas at Naas in May, though had fitness on his side. Well beaten in the Group 3 Marble Hill last time (possibly didn’t stay 6f), and Moore siding with Kansas says plenty for me.
Havana Hurricane looked useful when winning on debut at Goodwood and improved again when runner-up in the Woodcote Stakes (6f) at Epsom. He made a bold move 2f out, but his effort flattened out inside the final furlong. The drop to 5f looks a good move. He may come up a little short class-wise but should run well.
Utmost Respect was a 220,000 gns Craven breeze-up purchase I April, and I was impressed with him physically when I saw him prior to his debut at York’s Dante Meeting. He was a clear eye-catcher that day having repeatedly not got any sort of run between the final two furlongs. Once in the clear he hit the line strongly to finish ½ length second to Ballistic Missile. Open to plenty of improvement, and I am hoping it’s significant that Richard Fahey throws him straight into deep end for his second start.
Windsor Castle Verdict:
Rogue Legend’s form is already good enough to win the race, and he might be capable of an even bigger performance. For me he’s a worthy favourite and if you fancy him, I wouldn’t put you off. Old Is Gold impressed with his attitude when winning at Beverley last time and is a big contender. Despite being a three-race maiden, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Kansas just yet and given his yard’s record in the race, he’s got to be respected. I think Utmost Respect is set for a very big run for a trainer who has won 2-year-old races at Royal Ascot in the past.
Selection: I might have saver on Rogue Legend if he drifts out to 6/1 but for now, I’m with Utmost Respect each way at the 20/1 available with Bet365.
Utmost Respect: 1pt each way – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places)
This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'll be making a suggested placepot permutation each day.
I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]
Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.
When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.
Tix Bonus
Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.
Prizes to be won
And, because it's Royal Ascot week, we've got some Tix prizes to give away
Tuesday to Friday
For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.
Saturday
On the final day of Royal Ascot, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.
So that's £300 in prizes this week!
What do you need?
You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]
**
OK, that's the set up. Let's get to it. The first question is where to go narrow and where to spread out. My inclination was to be narrow in the Group 1's but the Queen Anne and King Charles III are very open, and I hate the 'seven runner with an odds on' feel of the St James's Palace!
Leg 1 - Queen Anne Stakes:
In the end I've opted to bank in the first race and prey (and potentially place lay) for Rosallion. He should improve a ton from Newbury. There are lots and lots of dangers but I want to throw plenty of mud in later legs so it's Rosallion banker and devil take the hindmost.
A - 10 Rosallion
Leg 2 - Coventry Stakes:
The 123 last year were 80/1, 40/1, 50/1 so I'm putting a cast of thousands on a dreamy C ticket. I'll need A horses to place in the all other five legs for this to fly and, in truth, it's probably not too smart. I'm also loading up on A's. If we survive leg 2, it will be interesting.
A - 1 American Gulf, 9 Gstaad, 12 Postmodern, 13 Power Blue, 20 Underwriter
C - 4 Bone Marra, 5 Bourbon Blues, 6 Coppull, 8 Gavoo, 10 Kolkata Knight, 16 Shaatir, 17 Super Soldier, 19 Tricky Tel
Leg 3 - King Charles III Stakes:
23 runners, only three places up for grabs. Sheesh. Regional is fast, so too Asfoora who sees out a stiff five well as she did when winning this last year. Believing is a third very obvious dart. Hard to see all three missing the podium. Ed Walker has improved Mgheera since she arrived from France and she may not be finished yet.
A - 7 Regional, 12 Asfoora, 14 Believing, 16 Mgheera
Leg 4 - St James's Palace Stakes:
I really want to bank on Henri Matisse but I'm not brave enough. You might be!
A - 1 Field Of Gold, 3 Henri Matisse
Leg 5 - Ascot Stakes:
Willie has a good grip on the market here, and he's bagged Buick and Moore to ride Poniros and Reaching High respectively. That pair will take out chunks of the pool between them so we need to find something that might knock them off the tickets. Poniros is drawn higher than ideal. East India Dock's jump mark of 145+ implies he has a bit more to give on the level though he's been in a lot of scraps without a break. 18 is a bad draw, too. Manxman is progressive, handles big fields, is tactically versatile and has a great post. Mr Hampstead has snuck in at the bottom of the weights and is also well drawn and progressive.
Woot City is well related, well drawn and a massive price. C. Divine Comedy placed last year and the trainer has a fantastic Ascot record. Also C, along with the well drawn guesses Ascending and Saturn.
C - 3 Divine Comedy, 9 Ascending, 12 Saturn, 18 Woot City
Leg 6 - Wolferton Stakes:
Only once since this race became a non-handicap in 2018 has the unnamed favourite missed the frame - and that was in the inaugural non-handicap renewal. It's likely to be Enfjaar but we'll let the market decide. On B, I'll roll with a Wathnan trio in Haunted Dream, Torito and King's Gambit.
A - Unnamed favourite
B - 10 Haunted Dream, 11 King's Gambit, 15 Torito
Full ticket view
For pennies, £24.96 stakes. A single placed entry from A in each leg gives a 4p winning line, but of course it's possible to get more than one in each.
Full disclosure: even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!
The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:
And the breakdown by ticket is like this:
Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.
Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 daily through Royal Ascot.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TixPicks.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-06-16 12:01:422025-06-16 17:23:01Royal Ascot Tix Picks, Day 1
And so to the most international race meeting in the British calendar, Royal Ascot. The 2025 edition looks as star-studded as ever and continues to bask in its royal patronage, one of the features of the opening day named in honour of our current reigning monarch.
For the most part there's quantity as well as quality, which doubtless means winner-finding will be tough; but in what follows, I've assembled some of the sharpest quills in the inkpot for, primarily, your entertainment and enlightenment. Naturally, a winner or three will not be unwelcome.
A quick note that our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race (*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).
2.30 THE QUEEN ANNE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Dave Renham
I have the honour of kicking off Royal Ascot 2025 for the Geegeez tipping team solet’s see if we can start off on the right foot.
Queen Anne Trends
I'll start by looking at some race trends for the last 15 years of this four-year-old and up mile Group 1 contest:
Age
4yos recorded 11 wins from 81 runners (13.6%); 31% placed.
5yo took 3 wins from 59 runners (5.1%); 24% placed.
6yo and up hadjust 1 win from 37 runners ( 2.7%); 11% placed.
Based on these figures, 4yos have been by far the dominant group from a win perspective and, to a lesser extent, a placed perspective.
Market factors
9 wins for favourites
Horses priced 6/4 or shorter were 8 wins from 10
However, since 2018 there have been three big-priced winners – two at 33/1 and one at 14/1.
Course form
Course winners secured 9 wins from 58 runners (15.5%) with 34.5% placed.
Those without a course win had 6 wins from 119 runners (5%) with 19% placed.
A win at the course has definitely been a positive over the past 15 years.
Position LTO
9 winner also won LTO from 48 runners (18.8%).
Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO were 6 from 129 (4.7%).
LTO winners performed well from a smallish sample.
Course LTO
9 winners ran LTO at Newbury from 67 runners (13.4%) with almost all of them (65) having raced in the Lockinge. Hence, the Lockinge has been by far the best trial for this contest in recent years.
Race Class LTO
13 of the 15 winners raced in a Group 1 race LTO. LTO Group 1 runners have provided 55% of the total runners in the race and just under 87% of the winners.
Career win percentage
Horses with a career win percentage of 60% or more provided 8 winners from just 21 runners (38.1%) for a BSP profit of £34.62 (ROI +164.9%).
Queen Anne Preview
The first four home in the Lockinge - Lead Artist (1st), Dancing Gemini (2nd), Rosallion (3rd) and Notable Speech (4th) - reoppose here. In that race the first two home had the benefit of a previous run, while the third and fourth were making their seasonal debut.
Logic dictates that both Rosallion and Notable Speech will come on for that run and the trainers of both have made comments in the press to that effect. Also, I felt that Lead Artist and Dancing Gemini had the run of that race, always being up with the pace.
There are potentially two ways to approach the Queen Anne – one is playing the win market, the other looking for an each way runner at a price. In terms of the win strategy, the first one I’m drawn to consider is ROSALLION. He heads the market and looks a worthy favourite to me. Two from two at Ascot, including a win last year at the Royal meeting in the St James’s Palace, he is also the only one of four horses mentioned so far to have a career win record of over 60%. He ticks most of the trends except for winning LTO, and is also the joint highest rated in the race on official ratings.
Notable Speech is the other joint top rated in terms of ORs and he is a bigger price than Rosallion. Third in the Breeder’s Cup Mile suggests he has the class to go close, but the issue for me is his Ascot run last year in the St James’s Palace where he was a well beaten 7th. As illustrated earlier, course winners tend to out-perform non-course winners.
I am expecting Dancing Gemini to reverse form with Lead Artist and if this was being run anywhere else, I would be very interested in his chance. However, in two runs at Ascot Roger Teal's four-year-old has been some way beliw his best, albeit one of those runs was only his second career start. He does seem to have improved his form this season, but that Ascot runs are a concern.
Sardinian Warrior is 4 from 6 in his career so that is positive on the trends. He won here earlier this year in the Listed Queen Anne trial (Paradise Stakes) and followed that up with a decent second in France in soft ground over 9f. Back to a mile here, he has sound claims.
For each way players it is possible to make a case for Lake Forest, and to a lesser extent Carl Spackler and Diego Velazquez.
However, Docklands, who I believe is best on fast ground, has some appeal based on his price. On official ratings he has a bit to find, but he was the lowest rated runner in this race last year when finishing second of 13. His record at Ascot is excellent with two firsts, three seconds and one third from six starts, and his PRB at the course stands at 0.94. I think he is a 6 to 8lb better horse here at Ascot. He was second to Sardinian Warrior in that trial here in April, beaten half a length, and is around 25/1 compared with Sardinian Warrior at around 7/1. At the time of writing, he is 25/1 with a few firms who are offering 4 places, which looks real value to me. Crack Australian jockey Mark Zahra gets the ride: he's inexperienced at the track but a top rider in his country with two of the three Melbourne Cups since 2022 to his name.
This is a cracking race to start the meeting off with very few runners that could comfortably be written off.
Suggestion:
1pt win Rosallion at 11/4
0.25pts each way Docklands 25/1, 4 places
3.05 THE COVENTRY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Victor Value
It's great to be back on the team again and, just like 12 months ago, I'll be covering four of the juvenile races at Royal Ascot.
I know it’s heresy for jumps fans, but Royal Ascot beats Cheltenham for me: it’s more competitive, it’s global, and it doesn’t need “Festival” added on — it’s the original.
The Group 2 Coventry Stakes is one of Royal Ascot’s most prestigious juvenile races and often a launchpad to Group 1 glory. First run in 1890, it’s been a nursery for top-level sprinters and milers.
Recent winners include:
Bradsell (2022) – Went on to win the King’s Stand/Charles III (2023) and Nunthorpe Stakes (2024)
Caravaggio (2016) – Won the Commonwealth Cup the following year
Dawn Approach (2012) – Unbeaten as a juvenile and won the 2,000 Guineas in 2013.
Henrythenavigator (2007) – Won the following year’s 2,000 Guineas, St. James's Palace Stakes and Sussex Stakes.
Coventry Stakes Trends
While field size and inexperience make it look wide open, punters have generally had the edge in the race. That has changed a bit with the 150/1 shock of Nando Parrado in 2020 and Rashabar’s 80/1 win last year. But before that, in the 12 renewals from 2008 to 2019, horses sent off at 12/1 or bigger were acombined 1 winner from 155, 7 places.
15 of the last 17 winners won on their previous start. The two exceptions? Nando Parrado and Rashabar.
Another good angle: winners since 2008 were all 9/1 or shorter on their most recent start. Those returned 10/1+ were 0 from 50, with just 1 place.
Is there a draw bias? Not really. Winners have come from across the track. Stall 1 is 0 from 10, 3 places over the past 10 years, but stalls 2 and 3 have both produced winners so that's nothing to be concerned about. More generally over six furlongs on quick ground/big fields, there's a pretty even distribution of winners and placed horses.
Coventry Stakes Contenders
Here's a summary of the Coventry Stakes key contenders.
Postmodern – Overcame greenness to make a winning debut at Yarmouth last month. Visually impressive and a comfortable winner. He looks a good juvenile prospect and is effective on quick ground.
Military Code – The unbeaten son of Wootton Bassett made it 2-2 over 5f when winning a novice here 38 days ago. The step up to 6f should unlock further improvement.
No Albert Einstein, the early hot ante post favourite, means Aidan O’Brien relies on Gstaad and Warsaw. Gstaad came home well when making a winning debut at Navan (6f) last time. He beat a better fancied stablemate that day and is open to further improvement with racing. Warsaw has just had the one run, which was a winning one, also at Navan (5f), 10 days ago. Like Warsaw, he’s sure to improve but Ryan Moore has opted for Gstaad. Has Ryan chosen the right one? He usually does in this race but I wouldn’t be so sure; regardless, I am not convinced either will be in the winner’s enclosure.
Power Blue – Was only beaten ¾ of a length by Albert Einstein in a Group 3 at the Curragh last time. Given the latter was 6/4 for the Coventry when he became a non-runner, and the form looks strong, the 16/1 available at the time of writing makes him look overpriced.
American Gulf – A Class 4 novice winner at Windsor on debut and could hardly have been more impressive, a performance backed up by the clock. Oisin Murphy, who won on him at Windsor, stays in the saddle. There should be plenty more to come from him with racing. Trainer and owner had the third in 2022, and have had seven of 18 finish top five in Royal Ascot juvenile races since they scored in the 2013 Chesham with Berkshire.
Underwriter – Won well on debut on quick ground at Ayr. Retained jockey James Doyle rides favourite Postmodern, but Colin Keane is an excellent deputy. Archie Watson knows how to prepare one for the race having trained Bradsell (2022 winner) and lost out by a nose with Electrolyte 12 months ago. That was agony for me as I had tipped him here. Underwriter is open to as much improvement as any in the line-up and I’m expecting a big run from the colt.
Kolkata Knight – Looked professional and was backed when winning on debut at Hamilton. Open to further improvement and could outrun big odds for a trainer - Tom Dascombe - who has enjoyed previous Royal Ascot success, including a juvenile winner in the Queen Mary Stakes.
Coventry Stakes Verdict
Postmodern was an impressive debut winner and is firmly in the 'could be anything' category. That sentiment applies to Underwriter, in the same ownership, and he looks the better value of the pair given his trainer’s fine record in the race.
Neither of the Aidan O’Brien pair of Gstaad and Warsaw have got my pulse racing, but the trainer has won ten Coventry Stakes so we still need to respect his runners.
Military Code is unbeaten and improving and can get into the money, but I fancy there are better prospects in the line-up. Power Blue’s form with Albert Einstein stacks up well and he looks overpriced on that run. The market has seemingly ignored his form and he’s a tempting pick.
American Gulf impressed me when winning on debut and he’s another where we're guessing at how much more is under the bonnet. I like the fact that Osin Murphy stays in the saddle and he’s a playable price at 12/1.
Coventry Stakes Selection
American Gulf: 1pt win – 10/1
Underwriter: 1pt win – 12/1
3.40 THE KING CHARLES III STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Rory Delargy
With a big field declared for the King Charles III (formerly the King’s Stand), pace and draw are likely to be a decisive factor in the way the race develops. Traditionally that means that the higher numbers (stands side) are favoured, but the best of the pace appears to be in the middle, suggesting that the high-draw bias could be diluted to some extent. That said, I’d still rather be very high than very low.
Believing ran a stormer last year from stall 1, so while that is arguably the worst of the draw, she has proven she can overcome that obstacle to be competitive, and she looked at least as good as ever when winning the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan last time by ½ length from Win Carnelian and Regional. She was a little frustrating last season but seemed to get some bad luck with draws and is sure to be competitive for her new connections.
Asfoora is the defending champion, and the seven-year-old mare won at Morphettville in April before finishing seventh over 6f there last time. She showed last year that 5f on an English track suits her better than 6f in Australia, so merits respect in her bid to win this again for the Aussies. Her age would normally be a concern as few top-class mares retain their ability for as long as she has, but there are no obvious signs of deterioration. She got her eye in last year with a spin in the Temple Stakes before coming here, but she’s been in action recently enough to think that fitness won’t be a concern and she’s drawn between the more obvious pace angles in the race.
REGIONAL comes here after an excellent third, beaten little more than half a length in the Al Quoz Sprint won by Believing, and he has fared better with the draw than her this time. Berthed in 17 and with pace on his inside, he’s in a similar position to last year when he was beaten a length by Asfoora - the Australian mare exited 17 that day and Regional was close by in stall 15. Looking at the shape of the contest, I would argue that his draw is almost perfect, both in terms of historical perspective and where the pace is likely to be concentrated here: it looks to be immediately to the left, with Frost At Dawn in 15 as likely a leader as any, and those drawn 9 through 12 all having shown a tendency to push the pace.
He will hopefully have enough cover without having to fight for room, and he is ideally suited by 5f on quick ground as he showed when second last year. His form figures at this trip on good or faster turf are 21152 and the only unplaced effort came when beaten 2½ lengths in the 2023 Nunthorpe, his first run at Group 1 level.
The other one worthy of a mention is Night Raider, who blazed away in the Duke Of York last time but couldn’t last out the 6f trip there. He’s likely to be at his best on turf at this trip given a sound surface, and he’s the pick of those who will go forward from a single-figure draw. Stall 7 looks far from insurmountable and he can lead his group for some way, although he may just find a couple too strong at the finish.
Recommended: Back Regional e/w at 7/1
Exotics: Include Regional/Asfoora/Believing/Night Raider in exacta/trifecta permutations.
4.20 THE ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A small but well formed septet head to post for the one mile St James's Palace Stakes, typically a clash of the 2000 Guineas winners from across Europe. And so it is that we welcome said Classic scorers from the English, Irish and French versions, including a grudge rematch (of sorts) from Newmarket. Let's put some names to faces.
Cast your mind back - not far - to the opening Saturday of May and the 2000 Guineas. On that day, Field Of Gold was only 15/8 to fill one of the remaining empty spaces on the senior member of Team Gosden's lustrous palmarès. Godolphin's Ruling Court got first run and scampered clear under Buick; Field Of Gold, and Kieran Shoemark, were blindsided, flatfooted and, arguably - at least according to the trainer - outwitted.
The runner-up rattled home late, but too late, and was beaten a half length at the line. Too bad, said Johnny G, and it was the end for Shoemark. Harsh it might have been but in stepped Colin Keane, subsequently announced as first choice rider for Juddmonte, Field Of Gold's ownership entity, for the Curragh gig in the Irish 2000. Keane made no mistake - and nor should he in what was a slightly thinner looking affair, albeit that some of those inflated juvenile ratings were still suggesting otherwise.
This, then, can be seen as a decider, Ruling Court having snubbed his Derby invite at the eleventh hour as conditions went against him (and, perhaps, as connections realised that they were needlessly blotting a top Darley stallion prospect's copybook in a race that annually crowns Coolmore National Hunt daddy's). If Ruling Court had run at Epsom, there would surely not have been time to prepare him for this job a mere 11 days later. The Downs' loss is the Heath's gain.
As mentioned, this is no two horse race. There are 28 equine legs entered, and at least twelve of them are strong contenders; let's address the mystery four, which belong to Poules d'Essai des Poulains (or French 2000 Guineas, if you prefer) winner, Henri Matisse. To Juddmonte and Godolphin we add Coolmore's lads. Henri was a very good juvenile, running second in the G1 National Stakes before winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf; and he's trained on well, collecting a trial at Leopardstown en route to Paris and the Poulains.
A feature of this fella's performances is his ability to quicken. He was more than six lengths back at Del Mar before rattling home; and he ran two sub-11 second furlongs in the last three-eighths of the French Guineas.
The other four in the field should be discussed for all that my feeling is that a seven-runner race where they bet 25/1 bar three offers little of note outside win only wagering.
Rashabar showed a liking for this track when winning last year's Coventry. He proved that was no fluke by finishing very close seconds in two Group 1's later that season, and has again run well - although less eye-catchingly - in a brace of defeats this term. The latter, when five lengths behind Field Of Gold at the Curragh, gives him plenty to find; but this turning track might help him narrow the gap: he's looked like a doubtful stayer at a mile to my eye.
Officer's form heretofore is a stone below the top ones but the case for him is that he is less exposed and was certainly unlucky to some degree in the Irish 2000. Sent off only a 9/2 shot there, more was expected; but Moore has deserted and this looks a tough ask for the Ballydoyle second string. Their third dart is the maiden winner - at the fifth time of asking if you don't mind - First Wave. My assumption is that his is a pacemaking role.
That leaves a second Juddmonte runner, Windlord, beaten eight lengths in that Curragh Classic and surely also setting things up tempo-wise for his teammate.
Cast assembled, how does this act play out? It seems, on paper at least, to be run at a reasonable clip, with both Windlord and First Wave presumed hares. As always in such scenarios, though, there is the danger that the main trio mark each other and ignore the front end sizzle. That could lead to potential traffic problems, even in a small field (nothing more annoying as a punter!), and a dash for the line.
My suspicion is that the one most compromised in that situation would be odds-on jolly Field Of Gold, who has seemed to need a moment to get rolling, and he's opposable on that basis. If there is a genuine even tempo and he gets clear passage, he'll probably win; but I don't want to wager that where I'm getting less back in premium than I've shelled out in policy.
I've got a bit of a problem with Ruling Court as well. His mile form is top notch, as you'd expect for a Newmarket Guineas winner. But he was being trained to run a mile and a half at Epsom; that's a different regime, emphasising relaxing and stretching out over the greater speed requirements of top division miling. As with the favourite, I don't feel that's fully factored into his early quotes south of 3/1 for all that he's about as far from a shock winner as you'll get.
Which brings me to HENRI MATISSE. I'm not sure he's the best horse in the race - indeed, I think he's likely not (at this stage anyway) - but I do feel he's the most adaptable, and likely to handle the setup however it plays. And he has Ryan Moore steering. Nearly 5/1 looked very fair and 4/1 is still playable.
The rest don't really count but, for prayer mat punters, I could see Rashabarbeing closest to the front end nutjobs and making a bold dash for glory. It's far from 25/1 that he's on the lead at some point in the final quarter, before probably getting mown down by one or more of the trio atop the markets. Perhaps it's not Rash to include him 'underneath' in exactas and/or trifectas.
Suggestion: Try Henri Matisse at around 4/1 win only.
5.00 THE ASCOT STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)
Presented by Gavin Priestley
Ascot Stakes Trends
All of the last 18 winners had raced at least 11 times in their career (NH & Flat)
All of the last 17 winners carried 8-13 or more(before jockey claims)
All of the last 18 winners had raced 3 or fewer times that turf flat Season
All of the last 13 winners were rated 88-100
13 of the last 14 winners had run in the last 60 days (NH & Flat) – exception 2020 (covid)
13 of the last 15 renewals have been won by NH/Dual Trainers
17 of the last 18 winners had been rested at least 16 days (NH & Flat)
17 of the last 18 winners had their last run in a class 2-4 race (NH & Flat)
13 of the last 18 winners finished top 4 on their last run (NH & Flat)
11 of the last 15 winners were aged 5-7yo (exceptions 1x4yo, 2x8yo & 9yo)
Last 4yo winner before 2024 was in 2009
All 14 horses to have run on the All Weather last time were beaten. 2 placed.
Ascot Stakes Preview
A 0-100 handicap, a maximum field of 20 runners, and two and a half miles of stamina-sapping Berkshire turf that brings the National Hunt boys out to play at the Royal meeting. In fact 13 of the last 15 winners were trained by NH or dual purpose trainers. The flat boys and girls have had the odd winner here and there over the century, and have struck back recently having won two of the last three renewals, but on the whole it usually pays to stick with those trainers holding a jumps licence.
Despite the dominance of the NH horses it is interesting that only 8 of the last 28 winners had their last run over jumps with the other 20 having had their prep on the flat (what is more important to note is that all 25 runners since 1998 to have had their last run on the all-weather have been beaten). All 31 runners that last ran in a class 5 or 6 race and all 28 runners that last raced over 3 miles or further have been beaten also but age seems to be irrelevant with all age groups winning this century from 4-9yo (last year's 4yo winner was the first of that age group since 2009 but 7 of the 9 winners from 1998-2006 were 4yo).
The Irish challenge is strong this year with most of the top stables represented by at least one runner and, looking through the field, the eye is immediately drawn to the Willie Mullins-trained Triumph Hurdle winner PONIROS (East India Dock third) who sits right at the bottom of the weights and has William Buick on board (jockey has won 2 of the last 4 renewals). I sense this has been the plan with him ever since he rounded off his short jumps campaign with a second in the 4yo hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, and the master trainer has kept his horse fresh and penalty-free by not taking in the Chester Cup.
Mullins himself has won this race four times since 2012 and had three runners-up since 2019. He's particularly adept with horses in the bottom half of the handicap with a recent record of those carrying 9-06 or less at 10/1 or under of 2710314222. Poniros showed himself a top class juvenile hurdler but he also had some pretty decent flat handicap form last season including running second to Queens Gambit in the London Gold Cup at Newbury last May and being sent off favourite for the Cambridgeshire late in the season after finishing third in a big handicap at Ascot. He was a no show in the Cambridgeshire, looking like a horse needing a longer trip, and subsequently left Ralph Beckett to join Mullins.
I'm really confident of a big effort from this 4yo with the only caveat being that he probably won't want the ground too firm. I'm just hoping the Ascot watering policy will ensure they have taken the sting out of the turf and that enables him to run to his best.
As the ground could majorly affect the chances of my main bet I'm also going to have a small each way bet on the Harry Eustace 7yo DIVINE COMEDY who was runner up in this race last year under a 5lb claimer from just a 2lb lower mark. He began this season with a short head second to Al Qareem in a Listed race at Nottingham and the winner did that form no harm when running second to Illinois in the Ormonde Stakes and then winning a York Listed race from Absurde under a 5lb penalty. Divine Comedy followed up that run with a close third in the Sagaro Stakes before running down the field in the Chester Cup. Dropped 2lb since then he looks a massive price for a horse who has already shown he handles conditions and has begun this season in great form in a better class of race. His trainer has two winners, two seconds and a third from just eight Royal Ascot runners to date.
Ascot Stakes Selection
Try PONIROS at 11/2 and/or DIVINE COMEDY e/w at 25/1 or bigger
P.S. One final thing. Win, lose or draw it's always worth noting that if any of the runners from this race turn up again later in the week for the Queen Alexandra Stakes (final race on Saturday) then they deserve the utmost respect. In truth, not many try it these days but, since 1998, of the 17 to have attempted the double four have won, including two of the three Ascot Stakes winners that turned out quickly, and another four made the frame (at odds of up to 20/1). That's a place percentage of 47% and backing them all showed a Level Stakes Win Profit of +13.25pts thanks to winners at 11/4, 11/2, 6/1 and 12/1.
5.35 THE WOLFERTON STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
Formerly a handicap the Wolferton became a conditions race in 2018, although that has done little to improve its scrutability with three of the last four winners returning 14/1 or bigger. Roger Varian has two wins since 2020 and John (now with son Thady) Gosden has enjoyed five wins and five places from 20 entries. Both are represented this year.
Let's first look at the race setup. There is a draw bias in big fields on fast ground on the turning ten-furlong course. In the chart below, focused on PRB3, a smoothed metric showing the percentage of horses beaten by a stall and its immediate neighbours, we can see that the dark blue line - representing the race conditions (field size, going, all races) - is above the 50% lighter blue line up to around stall eight. In a field of 16, the implication is that it's harder to run well from wide.
Wolferton Stakes 2025: Draw and Run Style Bias
The lower half of that image is a heat map overlaying run style onto draw thirds. It tells us that early speed is often cheap speed, and that the optimal position is low to middle with a midfield sit in the early part of the race. Einstein is not required for us to also figure out that luck will also be needed by those adopting such a passage. Perhaps we're starting to see why big-priced winners are a feature of the Wolferton...
On Official Ratings just 4lb separates all bar one of the 16 runners, further attesting to the trickiness of the race. Still, with older horses and a big field, we can probably put a few profile elements into play. Below are the geegeez.co.uk Instant Expert grids for, first, placed performance, and then win only. There's a sea of green on the place, implying lots of these are well enough suited by conditions.
The grid is ordered by current odds at time of writing; and the well touted Sons And Lovers is one I'm personally fielding against. The form of his run behind Los Angeles has been trumpeted but it's worth noting he only had two behind him there - and one of those was a 100/1 shot. He's failed to make the frame in six races at the trip and in eight races in Pattern company so, while he might perform better from stall 1 and with Grandmaster Moore in the driver's seat, he just doesn't look particularly solid.
Enfjaar heads the betting parade. He has an ostensibly good draw in 2, is trained by that man Varian and this is his trip. Highly progressive in handicaps last term, including in the hurly burly of big fields, he's sure to step forward a bundle from his prep in the Brigadier Gerard. A player, no doubt, but skinny enough in the book.
Haatem has a tidy line of green on the place, and plenty of green and amber on the win view (see below). He has a blank for the trip because he's stepping up from mile races; his pedigree (Phoenix Of Spain out of a Cape Cross mare) offers hope that he'll stay without being conclusive. He was classy enough to run second to Rosallion in the Irish 2000 Guineas last season before taking the 7f Jersey Stakes at the Royal meeting, and is another that can be expected to bound forward from his seasonal bow. Still, Jersey Stakes hardly screams a horse wanting a mile and a quarter.
Richard Fahey sends Ecureuil Secret and bids to become the fourth Yorkshire-based trainer to win the Wolferton after Kevin Ryan, Tim Easterby and Mark Johnston. A four-year-old son of Wootton Bassett, he's been hyper consistent on both sides of the English Channel, and won an Epsom handicap by fully four lengths last time. He's a handy racer, making all that last day, and might just be a sitting duck in this deeper and classier contest.
Godolphin's Military Order looks better on the all-weather, or at least softer turf, and he's readily (and perhaps recklessly) overlooked; while the likes of King's Gambit and Liberty Lane both have it all to do from their wide posts. Each has form claims but getting a run might not be easy.
Let's revisit the heat map, this time with the runners, and their draws and recent run style preferences, overlaid. I've used some very high tech (!) coloured squares to highlight various things. First, those high numbers might have it to do. Second, low to middle looks good - but probably only if not too close to the pace (even allowing for the fact the race doesn't look swamped with early speed).
The Fahey horse will probably go on, and I'd imagine that Haatem - with his unproven stamina - might be ridden more patiently. Doha and Galen are others expected to be to the fore.
James Owen is winning everywhere just now but it will be a rabbit from a hat job if he can get the stayer Ambiente Friendly to win at this range. He could potentially also go forward in a bid to make it a truer test of stamina: if it's tactical he's surely got little chance.
Wathnan are an emerging force in ownership and they've targeted this meeting the past couple of seasons. Four horses carry their silks in this, including the aforementioned Haatem - the mount of retained rider James Doyle - and the wide-drawn King's Gambit. Their other pair are perhaps the more interesting ones. Haunted Dream is a big price and has done most of his recent racing in the Emirates, his last run there being a fourth of ten in the uber-valuable Neom Cup (£960,000 to the winner) in Saudi Arabia. Mikael Barzalona will probably ride him cold at the back of the field and have licence to thrill (or frustrate) with the route he plots, and he's kind of interesting from a throwaway dart perspective.
More obvious is Torito, representing that five-time winning and five-time placing axis of the Clarehaven Gosdens. He gets a plum draw, has an optimal running style and was third in the race last year when perhaps given too much to do. Colin Keane takes the reins so, while fitness must be taken on trust on this first start since last year's race, the fact he's here and is the sole Gosden entry in a race they've farmed offers plenty of hope.
It's a fascinating race but not an easy one to unravel - and I'm not inclined to play at short as a consequence. Enfjaar has an obvious chance but is commensurately well found in the markets; Haatem has stamina to prove and is too short in that context (though a steadily run race might aid his chance); and I have reservations about the next four in the market. Those reservations extend to Torito and to Haunted Dream, but a combination of the available odds and the perceived run of the race mean I'll split my stakes between them, and between the win and place pools.
Suggestion: Back either Toritoe/w at 11/1 and/or Haunted Dream e/w at 14/1 or bigger.
*
6.10 THE COPPER HORSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)
Presented by David Massey
Last year - 16 runners, first four drawn 14-16-12-13
2023 - 16 runners first four 7-10-3-13 (Vauban, would have won from Car Park 6, frankly)
2022 - 16 runners, first four 7-9-14-5
2021 - 15 runners, first four 9-4-3-1
French Master is the correct favourite for this. He looked in need of the run first time up (and still showed signs of greenness) at Newmarket and was still only beaten by El Cordobes (who was the paddock pick) and then last time out, despite constantly coming on and off the bridle and racing less than economically, was a neck too good for Story Horse. He's up 4lb for that but frankly was value for an awful lot more, and he looks a class stayer in the making. He’s still learning his trade and that, to a certain extent is the concern here - that he finds the occasion a bit too much at present - but I’ve little doubt he’ll be a lot higher than a 100-rated horse by the end of the season. On go the blinkers, which is hardly a surprise after Goodwood, either.
Caballo De Mar has been a favourite of mine for some time, a Trackside success story as he was flagged up early last year as one that would keep improving as he went up in trip. All he’s done is progress, and I loved the way he fought them off at Haydock last time, going to the front a full three furlongs out and just galloping his rivals into submission. He’s up another 4lb for that (which he needed in order to get a run here) but this extreme stamina test will suit him well and he might not have finished improving yet. He's a horse that simply tries hard and knows how to win, which is half the battle with stayers. Drawn in the middle in stall 9, which has thrown the winner up recently (and a place), he’ll do nicely for me here.
My Mate Mozzie was third in the race last year and is following a similar pattern en route as then: last season it was Cheltenham, this time around Aintree, as a prep, and on neither occasion did he cover himself in glory, so I’d not be worrying about that too much. Gavin Cromwell has enlisted the services of the excellent Warren Fentiman to take 5lb off his back and there are pros and cons regarding that (last five runnings have all been won by professional jockeys). He’s one to consider as an each-way poke with extra places, for all that he doesn’t actually get his head in front that often - just one win from eleven flat starts, but six places as well. He's certainly one to include in exactas and trifectas, as he’s more likely to be there at the business end of proceedings than a few of his opponents.
Willie Mullins has won this for the last two years and he runs Charlus, who is impossible to weigh up (for me, anyway). Three times a winner for Jean-Claude Rouget at trips up to 10f, he won a maiden hurdle for Mullins on his first start at Naas back in January before, perhaps unsurprisingly, finding the Triumph Hurdle a step too far on his only other hurdles start. His breeding sends out some mixed messages as to whether he’ll stay or not, although the dam being a half-sister to the very useful Drill Sergeant, who many will remember as a tough, staying sort for Mark Jonhston back in the day, gives plenty of hope; and the booking of Ryan Moore is obviously a huge plus. But look, those bookmaker chaps are already reaching for the tin hats, putting Charlus towards the head of the market, so it’s not as if he’s sneaking one in under the radar here. It may also be that stall 1 is not the best of draws for him either.
Suggestion: Back Caballo De Mar e/w at 6/1 with all the extra places
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/royalascot2017_gates.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-06-16 10:52:462025-08-25 13:09:41Royal Ascot 2025: Day One Preview, Tips
There are three festivals a year I get really excited about, writes Dave Renham. The Cheltenham Festival and Glorious Goodwood are two; and the third, which is soon to be upon us, is of course Royal Ascot. Around this time last year I looked in detail at the big 1-mile handicaps at the meeting - you can catch up with that piece here. This year I am concentrating on the Group 1 races.
Introduction
There are eight Group 1s run at the Royal meeting and they are as follows:
As would be expected, there is a good mix of different race distances and conditions although there is only one Group 1 race at a distance beyond 1m 2f, the Gold Cup.
In this article I am looking back on the last ten years of these Group 1 contests, trying to find any snippets that may help us when tackling the races this year. Profit and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission.
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Market Rank
Let me start by examining the market. I have ranked the runners based on BSP, which is the most accurate way of doing it. Further, it eliminates almost all of the ‘joint’ market positions.
These races have definitely been market-friendly with the top three betting positions each producing a blind profit. Those fourth in the Betfair betting lists have performed poorly but due to the modest sample we can perhaps assume this is an anomaly. Regardless, it seems that the top three in the betting are the ones to concentrate on.
Group 1 Favourites at Royal Ascot
Narrowing in on favourites, below are the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) figures for each individual race to help give a better overview of favourite performance in specific races. For the record the average PRB figures for favourites across the eight races combined stands at 0.76.
There has been quite a variance with Gold Cup favourites performing best, and by some margin. Their actual performance in the Gold Cup has been as follows:
During the ten year study period the Gold Cup favourite secured five wins, two seconds, a third and two fourths, so no BSP jolly has completely bombed out.
Royal Ascot Group 1s: Top 3 Market Ranks
If we undertake the same type of PRB analysis across the top three in the betting, the graph generally becomes more even:
The St James’s Palace has the highest figure now with the Gold Cup a close second. Nine of the ten winners of the St James’s Palace came from the top three in the betting (four favourites, three second favs, two third favs).
Conversely, of all the races the Commonwealth Cup has seen fancied runners struggle the most. Favourites have won three of the last ten Commonwealth Cup renewals, but there were no wins for second favourites (two wins for third favs). Quite a few horses that were in the top three of the betting have bombed out with 10 of the 30 failing to finish in the top ten, three of them being favourites.
It should be noted that the four winning Commonwealth Cup favourites in the past decade more than paid for the other six losing jollies, returning a profit of 2.55 units at BSP.
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Position
The second area I want to look at is recent performance and specifically LTO finishing position. Here is a breakdown of performance by last day finishing position (I have grouped all horses together that finished fifth or worse LTO):
The BSP profit for those that finished third LTO has been totalled skewed by the 140.0 BSP winner Khaadem. LTO winners do look the group to concentrate on with over half of the 80 winners having also won on their most recent start. If we combine LTO winners with a position in the top three in the betting, then we see some excellent results: 36 winners from 115 runners (SR 31.13%) for a profit of £30.50 (ROI +26.5%); A/E 1.14.
It is also worth keeping an eye out for LTO winners that won by at least a length in the race prior to Ascot. These runners have scored 18.9% of the time (30 wins from 159) for a profit of £29.13 (ROI +18.3%).
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Race Class
Onto looking at the class of race LTO. Here are the splits:
As we would expect horses that ran in Group 1 company last time have won most often. Those that raced in Group 3 or Listed Class LTO have been profitable, but both have been skewed by very big priced winners going in. Still, Royal Ascot is a meeting where horses fairly consistently win at massive odds.
LTO winners that contested a Group 1 race have actually offered poor value despite a strike rate of close to 30%. The 51 qualifiers lost over 28p in the £ if backing them to repeat the Group 1 win at Royal Ascot.
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Days Since Last Run (DSLR)
It is time to see whether the timing of the last run before Royal Ascot makes a difference. It should be noted this data does not include French, American or Australian runners as I do not have facility to check those. However, it still applies to over 90% of Ascot runners. Here are my findings:
As the table shows, I have included 50 to 240 days as a single group simply because there are very few runners within that grouping, and their performance has been poor. I wanted to help highlight the difference between that group and the group absent 241+ days (or eight months-plus).
The biggest cohort had a run between 22 and 35 days prior to Ascot and their results have been positive given the overall context. To give a broader overview let me share the PRB figures for each ‘days off track’ grouping:
These figures correlate with the win strike rates. The figures for 22 to 35 days and 241 days+ are clearly best. Finally in this section, below is the ten-year performance in Royal Ascot Group 1s of horses from the top three in the betting by days since last run:
Again, this points to the same two groups (22 to 35 days; 241+ days) as the areas in which to focus from a positive perspective. They would have offered punters very good value over the past ten years.
Royal Ascot Group 1 Trainers
The final area I will consider is that of trainers although it should be noted that data is limited. There are a handful of trainers who have saddled at least 20 runners in Royal Ascot Group 1s in the last ten years, and they are shown in the following table:
It is important not to take these figures (especially big profit lines) too literally due to the sample sizes. It is probably more prudent to look at the PRB values to give a better general indication of how each trainer's horses have run:
William Haggas, despite having just one winner from 24, has an excellent PRB figure so it looks like he has been somewhat unlucky in recent years. He has endured five second places, as well as four thirds and five fourths. Haggas looks a trainer that may offer some placepot/ each way value at the very least next week.
By contrast, Roger Varian’s runners have really struggled although a good proportion of his charges have been bigger prices. Indeed, Charyn, in last year's Queen Anne Stakes is Varian's sole Royal Ascot G1 winner to date. There are sure to be more in future but his seem a little over-bet.
Other trainer titbits to share include the fact that Aidan O’Brien's 13 Group 1 winners in the past decade have all been ridden by Ryan Moore (from 61 rides). All other jockeys riding for O'Brien are a combined 0 from 43 since 2015, although again most of these runners were outsiders. Sticking with O’Brien it seems best to concentrate on those starting favourite or second favourite. They have combined to produce 12 of his 13 winners (from 34 qualifiers) returning a small 2p in the £. Finally, albeit from a very small sample, the Gosden stable has had four winners and four placed runners from just 13 runners aged four.
Summary
The Group 1 races at Royal Ascot are the races that owners, trainers and jockeys covet the most, although any win at the Royal meeting is huge.
In terms of the Group 1s, the most fancied runners - those in the top three in the betting - have fared much the best. Don’t be put off by horses having their first run in more than eight months (241+ days) and we might also consider a break of 22 to 35 days (three to five weeks) as more of a positive than a negative.
A last day win is preferable to other finishing positions and a last time out win coupled with a top three position in the betting market has been a very strong positive. From the training ranks, William Haggas appears to have been quite unlucky in the past decade and certainly I’ll be popping a few of his runners in my placepots at the very least. Aidan O’ Brien runners are worth noting if starting in the top two of the betting and particularly when ridden by Ryan Moore.
Wishing you the best of luck with your Royal Ascot Group 1 wagers.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Kyprios_MojoStar_Stradivarius_GoldCup_Ascot2022.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2025-06-09 12:35:212025-06-09 12:35:21Royal Ascot 2025: Analysing The Group 1 Races
With the 2025 Cheltenham Festival now fading out of sight in the rear view mirror, and with Aintree and, gasp, the flat season emerging on the horizon, now is a perfect moment to have a quick think about the 2026 Cheltenham ante post markets.
There's obviously any amount of unpredictability to be visited on the scene in the ensuing 360-odd days but that's accounted for at least to some degree in the prices, all of which affords a small swing at a big payoff. I won't be tying up much capital in this venture, but it's a bit of fun and could give us plenty of highs and lows as the narrative plays out through Aintree, Punchestown and then the Autumn, Winter and Spring of 2025/6.
First things first: I'm not interested in the novice hurdle races. None of the last three Supreme winners had any degree of public profile a year prior to their successes, and the hokey cokey between Baring Bingham and Albert Bartlett is a targets guessing game nobody can win. The novice chases offer slightly more hope but even there we've the challenge of knowing which are natural hedge hoppers and which will stay over hurdles.
Best then to focus on the open championship events: the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and Gold Cup. Here's goes (next to) nothing...
Champion Hurdle 2026
This looks likely to be a very open division next season. Constitution Hill has not come back to his old form, though he has kept on winning - barring that tumble last week. He'll only be nine next year and has few miles on the clock for various reasons; but he's been famously tough to get right and is readily opposed in the context of a project like this.
State Man is the same age as Connie and would have been an unambiguous winner this year but for that last flight brain fart from Townend (just my opinion). That performance was a surprise in one way but not in another. After all, he was the reigning champ in spite of a middling season; and, once Constitution Hill had exited he had only Brighterdaysahead to beat on the form book. Her position in the market owed everything to trainer Gordon Elliott's high regard and to a single thirty length win that was very, very hard to interpret literally. She'll surely go to the Mares' Hurdle, or chasing, next season.
Golden Ace was the beneficiary of the champ's late departure. I loved the story, but I don't think for a second she'll be good enough to defend her crown. So we're looking for a new champion, on my reading anyway.
The top four in the current ante post lists are Con Hill, The New Lion, Lossiemouth and Kopek Des Bordes. Let's first deal with Lossiemouth. To my eye, she wants at least two and a half miles and if connections are seeking a championship she should be going up, not down, in trip. We'll get to that in due course. She was outpaced at Kempton behind Constitution Hill, and she fluffed her lines for no credible reason when going hoof to hoof with State Man. At a tempo that suited far better, in the 2m4f Mares' Hurdle, she waltzed away from a smart mare in Jade De Grugy without in any way suggesting her stamina bottom had been reached.
The New Lion has to be in the argument after what was an impressive win in the Turners (Baring Bingham). That's not been as good a trial for the Champion Hurdle as some have made out, the only recent winner to double up in the Champion in recent times being Faugheen in 2014/15. Another novice, Kopek Des Bordes, is as short as 4/1 and as long as 10/1 to win next year's Champion Hurdle, perhaps summing up the challenges of identifying race plans. The aforementioned C Hill did the Supreme/Champion Hurdle double in 2022/23 and this lad looks highly promising... if he stays hurdling.
I'm not at all convinced by Triumph winner Poniros at this stage, though he may yet develop into a five-year-old Champion Hurdler; but one Festival winner that is worth a second look in this market is Kargese. Her form has been under-rated - she's a dual Grade 1 scorer and hasn't been out of the first two in ten runs - in spite of a tendency to over-race. She easily won the County Hurdle off a mark of 141, the exact same County mark from which State Man prefaced his Champion Hurdle score a year later. True, he had more of a 'dark horse' profile but Kargese's form is really, really good (I noted in my County Hurdle preview how I felt last year's juveniles generally, and her in particular, had perhaps been underrated).
She'll have to improve a stone and more from an official mark of around 145 and she might be kept to mares' only races and aimed at the Mares' Hurdle. In her case, as one who tends to pull quite a bit, a shorter faster test might be just the ticket. She'd get the 7lb mares' allowance if running in the Champion Hurdle and would be bidding to emulate Golden Ace, Honeysuckle, Epatante and Annie Power who between them won five of the last ten Champion Hurdles. Importantly, she's a price - 33/1 - for a throwaway dart.
Suggestions: Many of these have some sort of chance if lining up a year from now. But, in a number of cases - notably Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead, Lossiemouth, and perhaps Kopek Des Bordes - they are either fragile or have other potential routes. State Man will be a year older and the race fell in his lap this year, before he declined the opportunity. Poniros might be more credible if winning at Punchestown but I'm not quite subscribing to him yet; and Golden Ace was a glorious advertisement for buying a lottery ticket, but should be lottery odds to do it again.
That leaves me with The New Lion and, more tentatively, Kargese.
Back The New Lion at 7/1 win only. For tiny stakes, try Kargese at 33/1 win only.
Queen Mother Champion Chase 2026
The Champion Chase is a favourite's graveyard, seven odds-on shots getting turned over in the past decade. And yet the game remains to try to get a horse to the race at a shorter - ideally, much shorter - price than was taken.
An obvious starting point is this year's winner, Marine Nationale, who was winning the argument with Quilixios when that one came down at the last, eventually scoring by a slightly misleading 18 lengths. Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort and he'll be following the precedent of both Altior and Energumene in trying double up aged nine next season. If he gets to the gig, he'll have leading claims.
Jonbon would have been much closer if he'd not rearranged the furniture in the back straight. But would he have beaten the winner? Possibly, but not definitely. In any case, he'll be ten next year and that list of excuses for getting beaten at Cheltenham is growing.
The absent and much-missed Sir Gino is 7/2 favourite in ante post lists. Given that, as far as I'm aware, he only came out of an equine hospital on Monday, he wouldn't be a huge pile shorter than 7/2 to race again, let alone win a Festival Grade 1. I really, really hope he does get back, and that he retains his ability; but his quote in this market is ludicrous. He's half the price of the demonstrably alive and kicking winner from last week!
Back in the real world, there's a strong argument to be made that Majborough would have won the Arkle but for bungling two out - you've got to jump 'em! - and that, therefore, 8/1 about his Champion Chase chance is a sliver of value. Sizing Europe did the Arkle/Queen Mother double in 2010/11 and, since then, so too have Sprinter Sacre and Altior. Of course, Maj would not be reprising those multi-year heroics because he didn't complete the first part of the job; but the Arkle remains a rock solid Champion Chase trial.
Gaelic Warrior has a big squiggle against him though it surprised me to discover he's still only seven, so will be eight next year. Age won't stop him, then, but he's not an ante post conveyance by any measure of the phrase. If Fact To File doesn't go to the Gold Cup - presumably after winning the King George - then the game's up: a fit FTF is unlikely to go shorter than a repeat Ryanair tilt, so I can't have him on my mind for the two mile championship.
Ballyburn is Pirandello's idea of a character in search of an author. I'm sure he knows the part he was born to play, but seemingly none charged with his care do. That's grossly unfair, of course, and I merely mean that there's a lack of clarity around where best to crystalise Ballyburn's undeniable ability. I feel it might be over hurdles and over further. But, like those closer to the decision making than me, I don't really know (though I'm pretty sure it's not two miles and fences).
Il Est Francais is a big no here, even though they might try. He's very in and out, and a repeat attempt at a King George - which so nearly paid off - ought to be on the cards. That would be a weird warm up for a Champion Chase.
Although he's not quite for me, Solness has been somewhat discarded in this market. He won two Grade 1's in the run up to Cheltenham and, with a more measured campaign next season, could definitely emerge as a contender. I get the impression his rise this term took connections somewhat by surprise leaving him possibly a tad over-cooked when Cheltenham came around. He'll only be eight next March and he should not be 40/1.
At the other end of the pace spectrum is Jango Baie. He got what for me was the ride of the meeting from Nico de Boinville in winning the Arkle. As a strong stayer who probably wants 2m4f, the plan at the outset was to lead and set a searching gallop. But when a couple of others wanted to do that, Nico reined his lad in and let them have at it in front of him. He hunted around off the pace until after the second last and then came with one withering run to mow down the flagging pugilists up top. I'm by no means his biggest fan, but this was a deliberate and masterful piece of steering from NdB.
Anyway, the point is that the Champ Chase can be run in similar fashion and that would allow a reprisal of this performance for Jango Baie were he to be invited here rather than the more obvious Ryanair. He would actually be bidding for the Arkle/Champion Chase double!
Suggestions: Sir Gino may rise to the top of this tree but he has much further to climb than most in order to achieve that. Apart from wagering, I seriously hope he does. I thought he might have won the Champion Hurdle this year but, as we know, connections opted for a different path. He makes a market that is 7/1 bar him in a race which rarely gets more than eight or nine runners. If you can get one to the start line, then, you have half (or, more correctly, a third of) a chance of hitting the frame.
This is pretty simple for me in terms of long range ante post. Marine Nationale must be on the ticket, and so must Majborough. Tiny tickles at huge prices on Solness and Jango Baie are not without merit.
Back Marine Nationale at 7/1 win only. Back Majborough at 8/1 win only.
Maybe limp in with either or both of 33/1 Jango Baie and/or 40/1 Solness.
Stayers' Hurdle 2026
I've put 6/1 Teahupoo (soft ground), 12/1 Ballyburn (in case he reverts to hurdles) and 20/1 Lossiemouth (this is the race for her in 2026, I just need to persuade Willie!) in some very speculative trebles but couldn't sensibly recommend you do likewise. All of the caveats very much emptored.
Gold Cup 2026
Back on a punting footing which could be described as at least relatively terra firma next to the Stayers' Hurdle market, the 2026 Gold Cup is unlikely to suddenly deliver a swathe of new candidates for primacy.
Inothewayurthinkin was a clear and unambiguous winner last week, and even if the wonderful Galopin Des Champs was a touch under par (which I certainly feel he was), the young buck holds all the cards going into next season. Galopin will be eligible for veterans' races from January 2026, as will third placed Gentlemansgame, fifth placed The Real Whacker and seventh placed Banbridge. Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor already have their bus passes, as it were.
Monty's Star will be nine and could not be fully discounted given a very wet Festival Friday, but his form is not as good as Inothewayurthinkin and he doesn't have the upside potential either. Looking at the Gold Cup winner's form profile this season, there's a case to be made for him drifting in price between now and next March - he was beaten by diminishing margins in each of his three pre-Cheltenham races this term - and that tempers ante post enthusiasm a little at this stage. On the other hand, were those defeats with a workable Grand National mark in mind?
Also in the green and gold is the Ryanair winner, Fact To File. Last year's Broadway (RSA as was) Novices' Chase winner at three miles was pointed at the shorter G1 last week, and fair bolted up in that assignment. Indeed, it was probably - or at least arguably - the performance of the meeting. I'm not totally convinced he'll last an extra six furlongs in the Gold Cup, but there cannot be another race to entertain him in at this stage.
Galopin is highly unlikely to be able to get a third Gold Cup aged ten and 8/1 is a sucker price, I'm afraid. Fastorslow has tended to be slow when overmatched; Grey Dawning was pulled up in the King George and ducked Cheltenham for pot hunting at Kelso - that doesn't put him in the Gold Cup picture; Majborough would be very doubtful to go this far aged six; and the rest are going to need to find a stone from somewhere which, while not impossible - I've suggested Kargese can maybe do that in the Tuesday feature - feels unlikely in their, typically more exposed, cases.
Suggestions: Few things in life are as simple as first meets the eye, so there's an above average chance I'm not giving this enough consideration. With that said, it looks an open and shut case for the two green and gold Festival winners in open Grade 1 chases last week. Yes, they're short (about 9/4 dutched), but if they stay healthy (a reasonably sized 'if', granted) they are head and shoulders above what we know of the others, the venerable veteran dual champ aside.
Back Fact To File at 6/1 win only.
Hold fire on Inothewayurthinkin at 5/1 as he could drift after a defeat early next season. That would be the time to bet him, at nearer 10/1. [Galopin went out to 6/1 after getting beaten in the John Durkan first time up last season]
Summary
It's all a bit of fun this far out - and indeed much closer to the day - so if you feel like following me in, keep it small and manageable is my advice. If one of them wins, it'll pretty much pay for the rest losing. And, because I love a bit of mugginess, I've permed a few of them in wildly ambitious trebles: well, faint heart never won fair maiden and all that.
At the very least, a bet like this gives us something to look forward to, and to shout about, in the year-long buildup to the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. That in itself is worth a small cheer!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2.79393753-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-18 17:33:112025-03-18 17:33:11Taking a Flyer on the 2026 Cheltenham Festival
And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.
Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...
1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Triumph Hurdle changed complexion hugely with the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005. The average field size in the previous decade was 26. In the Fred Winter era that average has shrunk to 16, and just 13 in the last decade. All races evolve so we need to be careful when using trends that include renewals from a long time ago - for the Triumph it is often best to calculate trends starting in 2005. Incredibly, this year there are 18 slated to face the starter.
Possibly the biggest under-bet factor in juvenile hurdles more generally is that, being so young, these horses often develop more during the season than older novices – and they develop at different times. It’s not uncommon for juveniles to go backwards as they develop physically. With so many more of the juveniles now being jumps-bred rather than having had a long career on the flat nowadays I think that’s a factor that’s likely to keep increasing in importance.
It is therefore a division to be particularly open-minded about whether form will be repeated. In the Triumph that question is especially impacted by the quality of the trials. Britain has four Grade 2 and five Listed trials for the Triumph. These races often lack depth: this century all nine Triumph winners that contested a British Grade 2, won that Grade 2.
In Ireland it’s a different story. The programme is designed to funnel the best horses together and typically a lot run in the Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival. Since it became a Grade 1 in 2010, it’s produced nine Triumph winners but only three were doing the double. Put another way, backing Grade 1 Spring winners in the Triumph would have lost you 30% of your betting bank, whereas backing the losers would have made you a 106% profit.
The Spring is run in early February and, given the ‘development factor’ I outlined above, another trend is to focus on recent Graded form more widely. You might think that Graded form (including Grade 1 winning form) in the novice and juvenile Grade 1s at the Festival would be so obvious as to be over-bet. But that’s often not the case – for example, if since 2005 in the Triumph you’d backed every unbeaten hurdler that had won a Graded hurdle, you’d have made a +23 (79% ROI) profit.
However, if you restricted that to unbeaten hurdlers who had won a Graded hurdle since the turn of the year the record improves to +28 (117% ROI) and would have identified the same eight winners.
East India Dock won the Grade 2 Finesse in great style in January. He likes a sound surface, is proven at the track and on form he arguably has enough in hand to suggest he should be odds-on here.
Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners
Triumph Hurdle Pace Map
A big field and should be lots of pace on. East India Dock tends to lead in his races but I don't think he needs to. Should track and get first run. Obviously, Willie has plenty of tactical options with his ELEVEN runners!
Triumph Hurdle Selection
East India Dock should be shorter on form, some of the horses around him owe their price more to reputation than track performances.
Suggestion: Back East India Dock to win at 2/1 or bigger.
Matt's Tix Pix: East India Dock on A, a couple of alternates on B
The formerly indecipherable County Hurdle has been rendered a coin flip between Messrs Mullins, W., and Skelton, D. in recent times. Indeed, in a race typically with 20+ runners, it's faintly bonkers that they've gobbled up nine of the most recent ten renewals. Willie also won it in 2010 and 2011 for good measure.
True, they tend to come mob-handed, but their winners have been 12/1, 33/1, 11/4, 11/2, 12/1, 33/1, 20/1, 8/1 and 25/1.
Five- and six-year-olds - in other words, seriously unexposed horses - have generally been the winning ticket, though they've also saddled three eight-year-old winners between them, at odds of 33/1, 12/1 and 20/1. So if not a young horse then demand a price, maybe.
Two of those older winners were very high class, and rated accordingly (146 and 158) while the younger horses - indeed all other winners bar Belfast Banter (129) since 2009 - were rated 134 to 141; and if you ignore subsequent Champion Hurdle winner State Man (extremely unlucky not to double up on Tuesday), that band narrows to 134-139. A feature of this race is that all winners since 2009 were patiently ridden, either in midfield or held up.
Of the Mullins gang this time, Daddy Long Legs is rated too high for a young horse, and Absurde has shown his hand too much, surely. But the other pair, Ethical Diamond and Kargese, are of clear interest. The former was five lengths behind the latter in last year's Spring Juvenile at DRF before completely failing to fire on heavy at Cheltenham next time. This season, after a promising effort on the flat at Royal Ascot, he ran down the field in a handicap at Christmas before bolting up in a very ordinary maiden hurdle. None of the 16 that followed him home there and ran since has won, from 19 collective attempts; and Ethical Diamond has been raised 12lb from his pre-race Irish mark (the Irish handicapper raised him only 6lb). He'll probably appreciate better ground but looks fairly harshly weighted all things considered, even if he is open to improvement.
Kargese is probably Willie's most obvious chance. She's never been out of the first two in nine career starts, four of them Grade 1's, two of them winning Grade 1's. Her form when within a length of Take No Chances has been well advertised by that one running third in the Mares' Hurdle, and it is possible the handicapper has underrated the ability of last year's juveniles. She has 141, the same mark as State Man won from and, while she is unlikely to be of his calibre, she may be a fair bit better than she's currently rated. She's versatile in terms of run style and will surely be waited with and, though it's a tough ask for a mare, Spirit Leader won back in 2003 from just a smallish number to have tried.
And what about Team Dan? Well it's only Valgrand for him, one shot wonder this year. This lad was impressive when racking up a hat-trick in early season, none more so than in a Grade 2 on good ground here. He was put in his place by Potters Charm when stepped up in trip, again around here, next time and has since got a five pound rebate from the handicapper for two non-descript efforts. He arrives here as a six-year-old novice on a perch of 134 and has been rested 77 days since, three of Skelton's four wins being rested 80, 97 and 124 days. Too easy? Maybe, maybe not.
With such a duopoly in the past decade, it's difficult to try to make a case for another though there are obviously plenty of respected operators in what is a smaller than usual field - just 16 declared. Principle among those shrewdies could be Joseph O'Brien who bids to win at back to back Festivals with Lark In The Morning, the 2024 Fred Winter champ. He's run acceptably twice since then, once for the UK handicapper, but still gets 2lb more weight than he had in that Haydock sighter. It's possible his best form is on softer turf than it's likely to be, but there's little doubt he'll have been optimally prepared.
County Hurdle Recent Winners
County Hurdle Pace Map
A smaller field this year and no obvious front runner. I doubt it'll be a tactical affair but it's difficult to call who'll make the pace.
County Hurdle Selection
I'm keeping this simple. I think Kargese is plenty short enough for all that I love her chance (and backed her ante post at bigger), so I'll suggest Valgrand to 'return to form'. Ethical Diamond is punitively handicapped but may still make the frame.
This race has only been run for four years so there are no long term past trends to dig into. Instead, I have looked at the last ten years of mares only Class 1 chases between 2m3f and 2m6f. There have been 46 such races of which 35 have been won by either the favourite or the second favourite. This suggests that this type of race tends not to have much strength in depth, and the four winners of this particular Festival race have all been 3/1 or shorter.
Another key trend to note in these races is that last time out (LTO) winners outperform those horses who didn’t win last time. LTO winners have won 25 races from 106 (23.6%) compared with 21 from 177 (11.9%) for those that didn’t win last time. There is a big differential between the placed results, too, with LTO winners placing 45% of the time, while LTO non-winners are down at 25%.
Horses that have previously won a Graded or Listed event hit a 24% strike rate compared with a 12% strike rate for those that have not.
Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have scored more than twice as often as those that were third or higher in the market. Not only that they have been better value with an A/E index of 0.96 compared to 0.81.
This year nine runners go to post with four rated over 150 and it will be a massive surprise if something rated lower wins this. Let’s look at the four main protagonists.
Willie Mullins has had two wins and two seconds in this race, and he runs two here which are first and second in the betting. Firstly, he has Dinoblue, runner up in the race last year. In that 2024 renewal jockey Mark Walsh may have been taken by surprise when the winner, Limerick Lace, kicked turning in and that could have cost her the race. Walsh will be keen not to allow any horse too much rope turning in this time around. A positive is that she ticks all the boxes from the trends shared above. A concern is that she generally races over 2 miles or 2 miles 1 furlong and, despite going close last year, this trip might be right on her limit stamina wise. She is likely to go off a short-priced favourite.
The Mullins second string is Allegorie De Vassy. She was fourth in this last year, second in 2023 and those were her only two runs at the track. Despite those two decent efforts she tends to jump out to her right, and I think that has cost her in the past here. She does arrive at Cheltenham in good form having finished second at Naas last time getting to within a quarter of a length of Dinoblue. That was over a shorter two-mile trip.
Limerick Lace, from the Gavin Cromwell stable, comes here as defending champion, but she has been beaten a total of 101 lengths in her last two starts. If it rains, her chances improve considerably but with the likely going good to soft I am happy to take her on at her current price.
Cromwell also runs Brides Hill. She has been turned over when odds on favourite in her last two runs which tempers enthusiasm a little. However, according to the trainer this has always been her target, and she should prefer the ground more than her stablemate. Her price reflects her recent form, but at her best she would be bang there
Mares' Chase Recent Winners
*New race in 2021
Mares' Chase Pace Map
Willie again holds the cards with both of his pair likely to be prominent in what should be an even paced tempo.
Mares' Chase Selection
Dinoblue is the most likely winner but with her trading around Evens in a nine-runner field is tight. For me this looks a race to tackle each way with Brides Hill.
3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Ah, the Spuds Race. There's a knack to punting this race, which is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season. With only one winner returned a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013, we're going to be taking a swing. Naturally, such an approach can be feast or famine, so the faint-hearted might favour a different tack. Me? At this stage (Wednesday after racing), I'm in a massive hole on the week and don't plan to smash my way free, so it's the only course of action. OK, to the profile.
We're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. Stellar Story last year was an archetypal winner so let's look at his form profile going into that race and see if we can't reverse engineer it:
The form image shows most recent (Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham) at the top, oldest at the bottom. Starting at the bottom, we can see he was a good bumper horse - good enough to win two of his three in that sphere. We can also see he'd got plenty of experience, adding four hurdle starts prior to the Festival to that trio of NH Flat spins. Next, note how he won a big field maiden hurdle before running well in defeat in small field Graded races, including at Grade 1 level at the Dublin Racing Festival. Before any of those Rules runs, he'd won an Irish point to point.
Stellar Story was available at 33/1 when I backed him a couple of weeks before his Spuds win, and he was sent off at the same price on the day. He was the 11th choice of the betting public!
Here's a horse running in the race this year:
He, too, won an Irish point prior to his Rules debut; and he also won two bumpers, including the Cheltenham Bumper when held up in a field of 19. Sent hurdling this term, he won in a field of 25 - count 'em! - on first start before being outpaced in consecutive Grade 1's. The horse in question is Jasmin De Vaux, of course, and he's now a little shorter than ideal. I backed him at 33/1 (bully for me, I know) but I'm not going to tip him here at 8/1 for all that he fits the bill.
Another that I like is Wingmen, second when Jasmin was fourth last time, in the Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1 at DRF. He won a bumper, then a maiden hurdle - beating Turners fourth Forty Coats - before being outpaced over 2m1f here. In two starts since that December sighter, he's finished third in the Lawlor's Of Naas and second as mentioned. He handles quick ground and has a very good profile for this.
Front runners have a good recent record in the race, as do prominent types, so that's a further positive to his chance; and his trainer, Gordon Elliott, won the race with the aforementioned identikit winner, Stellar Story.
And there's one more from the Leopardstown G1 worthy of a mention, I think. Sounds Victorius was fourth in the Champion Bumper last year, never nearer than at the finish. Second in a small field novice on hurdling debut, he then won a 12-runner maiden, leading then getting headed before outstaying a horse that looked very likely to win. Stepped straight up to Grade 1 level, he was again outpaced before plugging on. I'm not sure he's good enough for this - maybe he wants four miles rather than three - but he sort of fits the profile.
Fishery Lane was a six length fifth in last year's Champion Bumper and has looked fairly slow in his hurdle races to date. He's a bit of a flier on the basis that he's not run in Graded company over timber but that good effort at the Festival last year gives me some hope he can be competitive. He handles quicker ground and is surely in need of this extra road to slow the others down.
John McConnell went close in this in 2021 with Streets Of Doyen, and Intense Approach has a similar feel to that one: campaigned through the previous summer, a winning Cheltenham sighter at the October meeting before a midwinter break and one run prior to the Festival. Both had bundles of good ground form and were very experienced.
Of the Brits, Wendigo's Challow second to The New Lion could not have been better advertised, that one winning the Turners on Wednesday. The Challow has seen eight runs from its field since, five of them ending in victory; Wendigo won before and since that effort and could go well though I'm not convinced about his battling qualities (I could definitely be wrong on that).
There are a few classier types in the field, not least Jet Blue, Ballyhassen Paddy and the mare The Big Westerner; but there always are, and they usually get beat by the more streetwise contenders. At least that's the way to bet.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Just loads and loads of pace here. It'll be attritional I expect and you want one that can handle that sort of cauldron.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection
Very tricky and taking two (or three) win only pokes in this big field feels like a good idea. Jasmin De Vaux and Wingmen don't really fit the long price bill though both have their chance; I couldn't put you off a win bet on either. But at daft prices and for small money, I'll risk the trio of Fishery Lane, Sounds Victorius and Intense Approach win only.
Suggestion: Avoid the short-priced classy horses and punt something at a price that might be better suited to this kind of bare knuckle cage fight. Each of 25/1 Fishery Lane, 25/1 Sounds Victorius and 16/1 Intense Approach has a bit of a squeak if things fall kindly.
Matt's Tix Pix: I'll be putting some big prices on A and hoping to get a result.
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is almost impossible to oppose in the Gold Cup as he attempts to emulate Arkle and Best Mate in winning three Gold Cups in a row in the post-war era. Having won his third Irish Gold Cup last month, he has scared off stablemate Fact To File, the only horse who had looked a serious threat to his crown at Christmas when John Durkan form was reversed in the Savills Chase. Fact To File finished closer in the Irish Gold Cup but only because Townend plated rope-a-dope in front and turned the race into a sprint, impressing with how he quickened from the last to the line, while Fact To File was collared on the post for second by Grangeclare West.
Accidents can befall any horse, at home or on the racecourse, so there really is no such thing as a banker; but there is no strong reason to oppose the dual winner on what he’s shown this season, with his defeat at Punchestown in the John Durkan easy to forgive given he’s neither at his best over that trip or at that track, where his only defeats when completing over fences have come. Beaten by Fact To File there, he has shown the form to be misleading by slamming that talented rival twice at Leopardstown, brooking no argument as to which is the better horse.
With last year’s placed horses exiting stage left and Grey Dawning reportedly bypassing Cheltenham altogether, the Gold Cup looks the favourite’s to lose unless the ground dries back more than expected. In that scenario, Banbridge might be a danger to him having been confirmed for the race on the back of his King George win. I’ve liked Banbridge since watching him win the Martin Pipe in the company of Brendan Powell, who could not praise the horse highly enough, but while he proved his stamina for a sharp three miles of the King George, he still has the speed for two miles, and there are very few with that speed who can also stretch out the extra two and a half furlongs required up Cheltenham’s daunting hill.
I considered L’Homme Presse the horse most likely to follow Galopin des Champs home, but a minor setback has ruled him out. Corbett’s Cross showed at Ascot that he doesn’t jump well enough to win a race like this, and the supplemented Inothewayurthinkin is the better of the McManus hopes now that Fact To File has been rerouted.
In truth, Inothewayurthinkin is clearly not as good as Fact To File, having finished behind that rival in races won by Galopin des Champs on his last two starts. On the other hand, he’s also not capable of winning a Ryanair being a thorough stayer, and a Gold Cup weakened by withdrawals is a very realistic option for Gavin Cromwell’s 2024 Kim Muir winner. The Grand National is his main aim, but with questions over most of his rivals, he looks the one most likely to pick up the pieces in an attritional race.
Of course, a tactical affair will suit Banbridge better, but I suspect Paul Townend will be aware that Banbridge is the one who could spoil the party and will look to make this a test of stamina. That scenario is likely to see Banbridge look the main danger for much of the race, but Inothewayurthinkin will be staying on best after the last. While he’s unlikely to lay a glove on the favourite, he has every chance of out-slogging the classy Banbridge for second. At time of writing, seven of Gavin Cromwell’s 11 runners on the first two days have been placed or would have been placed but for a late fall, and his team is in better form than most at this meeting.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
There's a very good chance that Galopin Des Champs and Paul Townend keep it simple by bidding to make all. A few of his rivals need to try to get him out of his comfort zone so that's something to keep in mind, but the champ doesn't need to lead.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection
Suggestion: Try a Galopin des Champs/Inothewayurthinkin Exacta
4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)
Previewed by Paul Jones.
The news in the last few days surrounds Willitgoahead who has been bought and sent to Gordon Elliott who would have had no time to do anything with him so don’t let that have any effect on how you judge his chance. He is now more or less joint-fav with Angels Dawn having impressed with his jumping when winning at Thurles after racing in last early. I wouldn’t fancy those tactics being pulled off on the New Course so maybe he’ll sit handier early.
On the figures ANGELS DAWN is the one to beat as she receives a 7lb mares’ allowance here unlike when she won the Kim Muir two years ago (and would have been placed last year behind a Gold Cup hope but for a late fall). She also didn’t have that allowance when winning a point to point at Dromahane, beating Ryehill by 6l who has since run all over Itsontheline at Naas, and they are the other pair in the top four in the betting. Ryehill won that race despite a bad mistake three out and his jumping could let him down in this sterner test.
Angels Dawn is ten now, and up until last year the previous nine winners were aged ten or eleven. Sam Curling’s mare also finished a close-up third in last season’s Thyestes so competitive, big-field chases bring the very best out of her and I’m hoping that, after Sine Nomine last year, mares can bag back-to-back wins.
Runner-up for the last two seasons, Its On The Line is hard work but usually keeps pulling it out which is what made his Naas run, where he found little in the home straight, all the more disappointing. I think he needs to run himself into form/fitness as his very best efforts have been after Cheltenham but he is only reaching his prime now as he was just aged six and seven when runner-up for the last two runnings. Maybe Emmet Mullins had left more to work on at Naas than he is giving away (he had a hard race in that prep last year which may have taken an edge off him for Cheltenham?) but it was disconcerting to hear rumours that JP McManus, owner of Its On The Line, was trying to buy Willitgoahead: that may suggest a lack of confidence if the whispers are accurate.
Behind the Irish-trained top four in the market come four home hopes and the Brits have won three of the last four renewals. I can’t see Allmankind staying, and Music Drive has yet to run in a hunter chase (just one of those has won since 1993), so the other pair interest me more. Paul Nicholls has trained four Festival Hunter Chase winners so Shearer is respected, though I wonder if the Aintree Foxhunters’ might suit him better as he typically races over shorter trips and easier tracks.
So Fairly Famous appeals most of the home team. He beat the 2023 winner of this race, Premier Magic, by 4½l on Cheltenham’s Hunter Chase night back in early May (also won the same race by 15l the previous season) and has since won both his point to points this winter and clearly goes very well for Gina Andrews.
Rocky’s Howya was third two years ago but missed last season, which I know full well as was looking out for him as my horse for the 2024 version. He would have been closer but for meeting interference on the run-in behind Premier Magic and Its On The Line in 2023, so he also interests me now that he is back and won a point last time out.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map
The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection
Suggestion: Back 4/1 Angels Dawn to win, and/or consider 20/1 Fairly Famous and 18/1 Rocky's Howya each way.
Matt's Tix Pix: Angels Dawn and a few others on A, some bigger prices on B
A race that seemingly revolves around one horse this year, Kopek De Mee.
What we know about him; this will be his first start on British soil for Willie Mullins, having raced five times over hurdles in France for his previous yard and, as such, the handicapper hasn’t had a lot to go on, giving him his French mark of 136 (which he has to do, by the way).
It isn’t as if his French form means he’s thrown in here, though. Timeform, who can on occasions rave about these marks given to Willie’s from France, have him only fifth best, admittedly with a “p”, so progress is likely. Neither have we seen him for 310 days, and all his form so far has been on deep ground. We’ve seen good things beaten in this before; at 5-2 you can leave me out, thanks very much.
There’s one in here I’ve been keen on since his Warwick run at the start of February and those of you that have been lucky/unlucky enough to watch or listen to the podcasts I’ve been doing for a rival publication (sorry Matt) will know that No Ordinary Joe is the horse that caught my, and others', eyes that day.
No Ordinary Joe was seventh in the Martin Pipe last year when Nicky was having his week from hell, and this time around he’s been spared a hard campaign, racing just the three times this season but it was a much better effort at Warwick last time, despite not looking entirely fit.
He was close enough two out to throw down a challenge but Callum Pritchard looked after him a bit after the last, and despite only being beaten two lengths, and he looked like there was a bit left in the tank.
The handicapper left him alone for that, meaning a mark of 138 will be 2lb lower than last year, and although Pritchard has been claimed by Ben Pauling to ride No Questions Asked, Freddie Gingell, among the winners elsewhere this week, is a most able deputy.
Wodhooh is an in-form mare that’s unbeaten in six hurdles starts, and her defeat of Joyeuse and Take No Chances last time out is solid form, but the market has her well found. In some ways, I’d not be shocked if she went off favourite, given her form looks more solid than Kopek De Mee’s, but at the time of writing Gordon Elliott is not having the best of Festival weeks, with too many of his fading out of contention for comfort. That may change on Thursday or earlier on Friday but she only makes limited appeal.
At 33-1 I’ll also have a little bit on Electric Mason as the back-up selection. A good looker, he’s twice come up against The New Lion, beaten 4½ lengths on the first occasion and then nine lengths by him in the Challow. Needless to say, that form looks all the better after The New Lion’s win in the Turners earlier in the week, and a mark of 132 seems more than fair. The ground should suit and quotes of 25-1 and bigger are worth a fiver of your cash.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map
Another big field and some relatively inexperienced riders, so this ought to be quickly run from the start. It's been won by some really classy future chasers in the pase - see the list above - and it will be fascinating to see which Grade 1 horse(s) reveal themselves here.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Back No Ordinary Joe at 12/1 and/or Electric Mason at 33/1.
*
And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2025. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.
Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham, Matt Tombs and Paul Jones are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.
Be lucky.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/galopindeschamps_langerdan_cheltenhamMartinPipe2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-13 09:04:322025-03-13 09:32:21Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips
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