Previews, tips and trends for major horse racing fixtures across the UK. Detailed day-by-day reports and info on horses, races, courses, events and more.
This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'm making a suggested placepot permutation each day.
It started well on Tuesday: although the perm only caught 2% of the dividend, that was enough to return £58.11 from a £24.96 stake, including 5% Tix bonus. That's a profit of £33.15.
It got better yesterday: a £22.68 stake returned £146.47 from 13% of the dividend. That's two four-figure dividends we've managed to get a slice of, which is very, very hard using traditional 'caveman' perms. This is the beauty of ABCX and Tix!
With £47.64 staked and £204.58 returned, for a profit of £156.94, we'll be winning better than £100 from Tix and placepots on the week (no Tix Picks on Saturday).
Gold Cup day, Thursday, looks super tricky. But remember, there's another prize giveaway today - see below.
I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]
Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.
When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.
Tix Bonus
Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.
Prizes to be won
And, because it's Royal Ascot week, we've got some Tix prizes to give away.
Tuesday to Friday / Saturday
For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.
On the final day of Royal Ascot, Saturday, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.
So that's £300 in prizes this week!
Congratulationsto Mick C, who won £50 on Tuesday; and to Paul M, who won £50 yesterday.
What do you need?
You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]
**
To day three. It's risky banking on the the favourite in the opener but, if not there, then where?
Leg 1 - Norfolk Stakes:
Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore have won the two main juvenile races so far this week and have odds-on Charles Darwin here. But odds-on Whistlejacket was off the ticket for him last year, and they've missed the board every year since Land Force was third in 2018, including with three favourites. Karl Burke's recent record in the race is excellent and, though he's not hit the heights with his juveniles this week yet, Naval Light could change that. I'm taking a bigger chance than the market suggests because I need bullets to fire elsewhere. Will be place laying Charles Darwin to cover at least a part of my stakes.
A - 3 Charles Darwin
B - 1 Afjan, 13 Naval Light
C - 5 Comical Boy, 7 First Legion, 12 London Boy, 14 Sandal's Song, 16 Wise Approach, Unnamed favourite
Leg 2 - King George V Stakes:
As Rory very well articulated in his preview of this race, low is generally unfavoured with middle to high the places to be. Only Hukum (stall 4) has won this from lower than stall 8 (of 16 and 19 runners), and Hukum went on to win two Group 1's, including the King George itself over the same course and distance! You have to be good to overcome a low post. Hoping the market has this right.
A - 5 Serious Contender, 6 Sing Us A Song, 8 Merchant
Leg 3 - Ribblesdale Stakes:
The one I wanted to be with, Garden Of Eden, is friendless this morning; that said, the market seems utterly clueless here with the top six all mainly pink on the odds grids. I'm guessing here and using plenty of ammo.
A - 1 Caspi Star, 2 Catalina Delcarpio, 4 Garden Of Eden, 9 Life Is Beautiful
Leg 4 - Gold Cup:
Eight runners so we don't need any defections! On the face of it, this is a three horse race, with old boy Trawlerman the chuck out. But he is the proven one under these conditions and the trainers are in incedible form. I have had a good bet on the French horse, Candelari, but he'll never have raced on ground this quick; and Illinois is stepping up six furlongs in trip. Not trying to be clever here, just hoping to be lucky - may place lay Illinois to cover stakes if all eight run.
A - 8 Illinois
B - 4 Trawlerman
Leg 5 - Britannia Stakes:
Possibly the toughest race of the week. We're often looking at a midfield to held up runner drawn high, and that's the direction my prayer mat is facing. Hayley gave Docklands 'a Jamie' for Harry Eustace to win this a couple of years ago, and this time Jamie rides for Harry on La Botte (the barrel, used to be a great Italian restaurant in Boscombe). His form ties in with Field Of Gold through Cosmic Year, so he's an auto A. Teroomm is an obvious A pick, too, getting a hold up ride to notch the hat-trick last time and drawn highest of all.
Shout and Fearnot will come from further back, while Raafedd and Parole d'Oro have clear form claims if not optimal draw/run style profiles. This feels like 'goodnight Vienna' territory if we've not already put the cat out (hat tip to the late great Leonard Rossiter, for all that this show hasn't aged well - the jokes, of course, were all at his expense).
A - 2 La Botte, 8 Teroomm
B - 18 Fearnot, 22 Shout, 25 Raafedd, 26 Parole d'Oro
C - 6 Afentiko, 12 Consolidation, 15 Serengeti, 28 Brave Mission, 29 Arctic Grey
Leg 6 - Hampton Court Stakes:
Crikey, when will it end? Well, here, mercifully, as the sixth of six very challenging legs. Tornado Alert looks like he's been asking for ten furlongs all season, though he's backing up quickly after the Derby; Detain brings Prix du Jockey Club placed form but has to show he acts on very quick turf. Trinity College's form ties in with Detain's and he's solid if unspectacular - the sort that wins this race - and that'll do. Throwing some C's into the mix, too, because I fear middle to high might be slightly favoured.
A - 3 Detain, 13 Tornado Alert
B - 14 Trinity College
C - 2 Arabian Force, 5 Glittering Legend, 7 High Stock, 9 Reyenzi, Unnamed favourite
Full ticket view
The truth is that we'll definitely need to be lucky to score today, and on my own tickets - as well as these I've placed below - I'll be 'squeezing the topology', moving a couple more on to A in some places and taking risky bankers in others. But I'm happy to take a wider swipe and try to limit stakes here to £25. Anyhoo...
For pennies today, stakes are £25.44.
Full disclosure: as always, even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!
The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:
And the breakdown by ticket is like this:
Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.
Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 daily through Royal Ascot.
Into 'hump day', better known as Gold Cup day, or Ladies' Day - or even Thursday, or Day 3 - we go. The marathon Group 1 is the feature and, with the weather set fair it will be riding quick, so let's get straight to it.
2.30 THE NORFOLK STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Victor Value
The Norfolk Stakes is a Group 2 run over five furlongs. First run in 1843, it was renamed in 1973 in honour of the 16th Duke of Norfolk, Queen Elizabeth II’s Representative at Ascot from 1945 to 1972. The race achieved its Group 2 status in 2006.
Trends to Note
In recent years, this race has sprung the odd huge surprise. The Ridler (2022) scored at 50/1, and the following year Valiant Force (2023) won at 150/1!
I’m not digging deep into trends today, but from a draw perspective it’s worth noting that horses drawn 11+ are 0 winners from 37 runners, 6 places. That’s an interesting trend given the Exp/Wins=3.28 for those runners.
Contenders
Sixteen have been declared for this year’s Norfolk Stakes, and the first thing that stands out is that short-priced favourite Charles Darwin is drawn in stall 15.
After a good look, just four runners have made my final shortlist:
Charles Darwin: Trained by Aidan O’Brien, the son of No Nay Never has made all to win his last two (of three) starts at Navan. Looked a high-class juvenile last time, visually impressive, and the time backed that up. At a best-priced 13/8 on Tuesday afternoon, he looked value based on form good enough to win the last five renewals. The only negative is his high draw.
Sandal’s Song: Overcame a slow start to show good speed when winning on debut at Gulfstream Park (firm ground). A sprinting type on looks, he’s been purchased by Wathnan Racing, and if he handles a straight track, I think he’ll go very close. Triner George Weaver saddled the 2023 Queen Mary winner, subsequently bought by Wathnan, so he knows what is required to win a Royal Ascot juvenile contest.
Naval Light (Karl Burke): Bought for 360,000 gns at the Craven Breeze-ups by Wathnan Racing. Finished second to Old Is Gold in the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley on racecourse debut. He was slowly away that day and ran green in the early stages of the race but once the penny dropped, finished off well. Burke won this last year with a colt who had won the Beverley race. Retained jockey James Doyle opts for him over Sandal’s Song with James McDonald riding the latter which is no negative.
Afjan: The speedy son of Mehmas overcame greenness to win on debut at Chantilly 18 days ago. He produced a high-class turn of foot to win that day and is open to plenty of improvement. I was impressed with this success, and I think the stiffer Ascot 5f will suit.
Norfolk Stakes Verdict
I only fancy four of the 16 runner’s - cue a big- priced winner like The Ridler or Valiant Force! I will be quite surprised if one of that quartet doesn’t win. Charles Darwin’s form is rock solid and he’s a worthy favourite. However, I want to take him on because of the draw and his price. His nearest market rival is Naval Light who will win races this season and most likely at Group level. However, I was hoping for better than a best priced 4/1. At bigger odds I prefer American challenger Sandal’s Song - he looks a big price to me - and French-trained colt Afjan.
Selection: Afjan – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3.05 THE KING GEORGE V STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)
Presented by Rory Delargy
Despite being over a mile and a half and with the low stalls on the inside these days (it wasn’t ever thus), there is no advantage to be drawn in single figures in the King George V Handicap (or the Duke of Edinburgh over the same track and trip for the three-year-olds); and, to demonstrate, I’ve compiled the results by draw since 2001, which shows that nine horses have won the race from single figure draws, but that ten have won from stall 15 or higher in the same timeframe. So punters should consider those drawn high to be at some sort of advantage, for all that may seem to defy conventional wisdom. In reality, the stiff track confers no advantage to front runners, and those coming from off the pace tend to fan out from the inner rail in the straight, with travelling a little further no hardship in the grand scheme of things.
That isn’t to say that you can’t win from a low draw, but those who do are rarely helped by a position near the rail, except in the rare circumstance where the fastest ground is on the far rail, as it was in 2022, when the race was dominated by those who sat handily. The first six home in the Norfolk Stakes that year were all drawn low, and if that is repeated then you should take note. When the draw on the straight course favours high numbers, then that tends to be repeated on the round course, too, and early signs are that will be the case this year.
It's possible to make all from a wide draw, although those who have done so have tended to keep off the inside rail until near the turn, and recent years have shown a bias towards strong-staying hold-up performers from high-to-mid berths. Last year Going The Distance (stall 18) beat Neski Sherelski (19) and if you listened to Simon Holt’s commentary, you’ll notice that they are called as the last pair to reach the home turn. In 2023, Desert Hero (21) had three or four behind him on the home turn before winning. In contrast the last three positions that year were filled by horses drawn wide who were up with the pace.
On the face of it, Sing Us A Song is likely to be one of the front runners here having made all to win on his handicap debut at Sandown last time, but I think that James Doyle will be more patient than Hector Crouch was there. Sing Us A Song gallops like a stayer and Crouch took him forward last time to utilise his stamina over a trip which is a minimum for him, fending off challenges in the straight and never stronger than up the climb to the line at Sandown.
Given the extra demands on stamina here, there is no need to be aggressive on Sing Us A Song, who strikes me as the type to take another leap forward in form terms for this stiffer test and I hope that Doyle allows him to find his stride in the early stages before launching a bid from off the pace. He is a full-brother to the ill-fated Sir Erec, who was placed in the British Champions Long Distance Cup as a three-year-old and a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, but sadly broke a leg when favourite for the Triumph Hurdle. His dam is also a half-sister to Mahler, who was placed in the St Leger and Melbourne Cup, so all the signs are that this trip and further are going to bring out the best in him. I like him a lot.
Recommendation: Sing Us A Song (Win/Each-way) at 8/1 with bet365 (5 places)
3.40 THE RIBBLESDALE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A mile and a half for three-year-old fillies - an Ascot Oaks if you will. Being so close to the original (and still the best) Epsom variant means we only have one filly - Go Go Boots - coming here from there, and she's not especially fancied by the market. The top three from the betting lists have fared well enough - bagging eight of the last twelve Ribblesdales between them - but the jolly has only two wins in that time.
Aidan and Johnny G (now with Thady G as well) have won most of that dozen, three-quarters in fact, the Ballydoyle man owning most recent bragging rights as he and Ryan Moore have paired up to take the most recent two renewals. Not since Lady Cecil's Riposte won in 2013 has a filly unraced at two won the Ribblesdale, which might be a concern for the top two in the current lists, Serenity Prayer and Catalina Delcarpio.
Serenity Prayer is trained by Andrew Balding and won a traditionally strong Newbury fillies' maiden on debut before beating all bar Whirl in the Musidora, the key Oaks trial, at York last time. Nevertheless, she was more than five lengths inferior to the winner on the Knavesmire though it should of course be noted that Whirl all but won the Oaks, beaten just a neck. After just two starts she can be expected to stride forward on what she's shown to date.
Go Go Boots was only a neck behind Serenity Prayer at York and, if she just didn't handle Epsom, she is over-priced.
The same is true of Catalina Delcarpio whose form figures of 12 mirror Serenity's. She's trained by Paddy Twomey, and also won a maiden easily - at Leopardstown in her case - before running second in a Group 3. That form has not worked out well, though the winner was fourth at Epsom and most of the rest were beaten far enough.
The Moore / O'Brien axis is represented by a far more experienced filly in Garden Of Eden. She's been second and first in a brace of Listed contests either side of her winter break, but was well enough beaten in a couple of mile Group 3's at the start of this term. Stepping up to ten furlongs last time, she led all the way in the Naas Oaks Trial; her pedigree hardly screams she wants to go further but who am I to second guess the great man?
John and Thady run two more candidates as well as Go Go Boots, led by Life Is Beautiful. Thrice raced, she won a Kempton maiden on debut before running second to a nice filly in a novice back at the same track (both mile races). Upped to a mile and a quarter last time saw her run up again, behind the unbeaten Coronation Stakes favourite Falakeyah.
Understudy may be just that here. She's got a lovely staying pedigree - by Sea The Stars out of a Selkirk mare - but this is huge leap in grade from a Class 5 Southwell novice. Still, she's bound to be capable of better in time.
Charlie Johnston saddled Caspi Star to be third to Oaks winner Minnie Hauk in the Cheshire Oaks. She was beaten half the distance Serenity Prayer was by Whirl, with Minnie Hauk edging that one out, so 10/1 this lass feels more attractive than 3/1 the jolly. She's improved a stone and more in two runs since getting bested by Lady Vivian, though that one has also stepped forward and doubled up in a handicap at the Chester May meeting last time.
Aidan O'Brien also runs Ecstatic and Island Hopping, the former another experienced filly for whom excuses can be made the last couple of starts: messy race, no run at Newbury and may not have handled the soft turf at Navan the time before. She does need them, however. Island Hopping was behind Garden Of Eden in Listed class last time but may be slightly more stoutly bred and may also be enlivened by the first time blinkers.
Suggestion: I think the percentage play is Garden Of Eden at around 5/1 win only despite the stamina reservation. She did seem to improve for the extra quarter mile last time and, if she can do likewise for a further two-eights, she's value against the inexperienced pair atop the market. Caspi Star at 10's might be an interesting small each way play based on her Chester run..
4.20 THE GOLD CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A smallish field of eight line up for the Blue Riband and, in the absence of the sadly retired Kyprios, it's a more open contest than might otherwise have been the case. The question is, does Aidan O'Brien have a ready made replacement for his injured star stayer in the shape of Illinois?
Four-year-old have won all bar four of the last dozen Gold Cups, and of the quartet of older winners, three were repeaters who'd won prevoiusly aged four - Kyprios once and Stradivarius twice. Without a repeater, the youngest eligible age group looks the right focus. It's another race where Messrs O'Brien and the Gosdens have something of a hegemony with both well invested this time around.
The favourite, Illinois, comes from Ballydoyle and is from the penultimate crop of mega-sire Galileo. Winner of the Queen's Vase this time last year, he finished the season with second in the St Leger; this season's pipe opener was a cosy success in the Ormonde Stakes and he comes here in fine fettle, the second from Chester going a place better at York last weekend. This is, however, a step up in trip and in class, Illinois never having raced beyond the extended mile and three quarters of the St Leger. He seems an uncomplicated sort so ought to give himself every chance of relaxing into a good rhythm, though he does usually race handily.
Second choice is the Gosdens' Trawlerman, a perennial forward goer. He stays well and acts on quick turf as he showed when a length behind Kyprios in the race last year, a repeat of which would likely be good enough to take top honours this time around. He won by five lengths on his return from Dubai, in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last month. He's likely to bid to make all but, at seven years young, time may not be on his side against less exposed rivals.
One of those is the French raider Candelari, trained by Francis-Henri Graffard. He made his debut on the all-weather through the winter before seamlessly reverting to turf; his second grass spin, last time out, was a staying on win in the almost two miles Prix Vicomtesse Vigier, a Group 1. A feature of his races is switching off and rattling home late: he'll not have too much time to gather his thoughts in the short home straight at Ascot but he looks like he'll relish the extra range. This will be just his sixth career start so there's probably more in the lockeur.
It would be a shock, to me at least, if any of the rest were to win. Sweet William was five lengths behind Trawlerman last term and is a year older now; Wonder Legend improve 16lb on the all-weather through the winter but this is big ask (he's vaguely interesting e/w); and I don't expect the veterans Coltrane, Yashin or Dubai Future to, well, have a future, in the context of this G1 at any rate.
Illinois might be the one but he's a fair bit to prove at his sub-2/1 quote. I think Trawlerman likely just sets it up for a younger closer - though fair play to him if I'm wrong on that; and so the one I'm siding with is Frenchie Candelari, whose chance will depend to some degree on Mikael Barzelona getting his fractions right. He doesn't always. Will it be Ooh la la! or Zut alors?!
Suggestion: Back CANDELARI to win at 10/3 (or 3/1 or better).
5.00 THE BRITANNIA STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)
Presented by David Massey
The Thirsk piece of form where Terroom beat Parole D’Oro is where I’m going to start this form guide for the Brittania, as the pair of them feature highly towards the top of the market, and I think it might be a strong piece of form.
Terroom came out on top by ¾l that day, but Parole D’Oro travelled like the best horse (traded 1.03 in the run) and just couldn’t quite finish the job off. Terroom went on to show the form as solid by winning again at Haydock, beating Tilted Kilt ¾l.
Going back to Thirsk, Parole D’Oro was giving Terroom 2lb that day, yet gets 4lb today, plus there’s the addition of a tongue tie, which you’d like to think would help him see it out a little stronger. That 6lb turnaround in the weights makes me think Parole d’Oro can reverse form today, and I like where he’s berthed, in stall 24, with a potential pace angle in The Lost King next door in 25 to give him a tow into it.
At 33s and bigger, despite what looks a moderate draw, Mr Chaplin has to be on the shortlist too. We liked him a lot, physically, when winning a nursery at Glorious Goodwood last year (paddock pick) and, off the back of that, he took his chance against The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court in the Group 3 Acomb at York. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he was unable to land a blow against such classy opposition but ran respectably and was spotted running on late. He tried making all in the Flying Scotsman on his final start of last year and on the figures ran his best race of the season to finish fourth.
He didn’t reappear until May this season when eighth at Goodwood but that doesn’t begin to tell the story, as he was in a good position to challenge two furlongs out but was constantly denied a run up the rail - a horror story we’re all too familiar with at that track - and in the end, Richard Kingscote accepted the situation and allowed him to come home in his own time. He lost multiple places late as a result, and to me he shaped as if he retains all of his ability. A mile today is a new test for him but the way he finished off at Goodwood when winning over seven suggests he might even improve a bit for it. If the draw does beat him today, keep him in mind for something similar in the near future.
Middle draws certainly didn’t hamper the chances of anyone on Day One, and Raafedd’s stall 14, smack in the middle, looks a very good place to work from. You couldn’t help but be impressed with the way he beat Accentuate at Newbury last time out, leading a full two furlongs out, then powering clear and geared down to win two lengths. The second did the form no harm when scoring by three lengths at Windsor last week, giving the form a very solid look, and the time figure for Raafedd’s win at Newbury was good too.
This step up to a mile will surely suit him even better, and there has to be more to come from this son on Teofilo, you fancy. He rounds out my three against the field for the race.
Three against the field: Parole d'Oro 11/1, Raafedd 11/1, Mr Chaplin 33/1
5.35 THE HAMPTON COURT STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)
Presented by Gavin Priestley
TRENDS
A typical Hampton Court winner has yet to win at Group level (15 of the last 15 winners), has an official rating of 103+ (14/15), has raced 3-6 times in their career (14/15), came from the top 4 in the betting (13/15) and returned less than 8/1 (14/15). 13 of the last 15 winners had won at least one of their last three starts and had finished top 6 in all of those three starts (14/15).
3 of the last 15 winners last raced at Epsom (from just 9 such runners).
In the last 15 years, all 22 runners that had their last start in a class 3-5 race, all 15 horses that last ran in the 2000 Guineas, all 12 horses that last ran in a Group 2, and all 6 horses that last ran on the all-weather have been beaten.
RACE ANALYSIS:
A cracking looking race with the Aidan O'Brien French Derby 4th Trinity College heading the betting. With the first six home that day finishing in a heap, and with just a length and a half covering them all, it's hard to say what the form's worth. On his previous start Trinity College had been beaten by the now re-opposing Sea Scout at Epsom and, with that rival trading as a 66/1 outsider here, that's either a great price on him or a worthless piece of form. With Sea Scout subsequently finishing 8th in the Dante and 11th in the Derby I'm leaning towards the latter.
Traditionally this is a race for those who missed the Derby due to stamina doubts or those that did run in the Derby but failed to get home.
One horse who the latter definitely applies to is the 2000 Guineas 4th TORNADO ALERT who looks an absolutely massive price if over his Derby exertions from just 12 days ago. A staying on 4th at Newmarket over a mile, where he was just four lengths off Field of Gold, he was doing some good work late on and caught the eye of a lot of expert judges. His trainer was happy to talk up his chances for the Derby but, on the day, the 1m4f trip seemed to find him out and he patently didn't stay the last couple of furlongs.
He looks sure to appreciate the drop back to this intermediate 10f trip and he is one of the few runners in the field with genuine Group 1 form. He scores highly on the trends and his trainer won this in 2017 (stable have had just one runner in the race since) with a 113-rated horse that came here on the back of a 5th in the Derby. Top international jockey James McDonald is booked and there's so much to like about his chances I'll be shocked if he isn't involved at the finish.
SELECTION: TORNADO ALERT 1pt EW
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6.10 THE BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)
Presented by Dave Renham
This race was taken off the calendar in 2015 but reinstated in 2020. Hence in terms of trends I am looking at the last ten renewals, which cover 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024.
10-year trends
Market
Just one win for horses from the top four of the betting. (English Oak last year when fav).
Six winners priced between 12/1 and 18/1; the other three were 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1.
Age
4yos have won five of the last ten but they have provided 40% of the total runners. 4yos do have the best placed record (double other age groups combined).
7yos and older have a poor record win 0 wins and just 5 places from 47 runners.
LTO Price
Seven of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter on their most recent start. This equates to 70% of the winners from 40% of the total runners.
Draw
The number of runners each year has fluctuated between 23 and 29 runners so for my draw analysis I am using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail. Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.
Looking at the last 10 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account, so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:
Draw position in relation to stands rail
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5 stalls away
0.58
0.59
6 to 10 stalls away
0.61
0.64
11 to 15 stalls away
0.45
0.49
16 to 20 stalls away
0.47
0.48
21 or more stalls away
0.42
0.44
As the numbers show horses drawn within ten stalls of the stands’ rail have had a significant edge in this race over the past ten years.
Run Style
Now I am looking at the PRBs for each run style group based on the last ten years. The splits are:
Run Style
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group
0.49
0.49
Prominent
0.37
0.42
Mid Division
0.52
0.53
Held up
0.57
0.58
Based on these past figures, hold up horses have had the edge here, followed by mid pack runners. Indeed, eight of the last ten winners came from one of these two run styles.
Onto my favoured candidates:
Never So Brave – Now with Andrew Balding having formerly been with Sir Michael Stoute. He has had one run this season at Chester where he pulled far too hard and then had to be switched just over a furlong from home. Was the fastest finisher in the field that day running 0.23 secs quicker than anything else in the final furlong. Finished second but should have won. He has been raised 4lb which looks fair. Is drawn next to English Brave in 28 and has the assistance of the excellent Oisin Murphy in the saddle. Often races prominently but hopefully he will be ridden with a little more restraint.
English Oak – He won this race last year extremely impressively off a handicap mark of 99. He is one 1lb higher here. That performance was rated at 114 by Racing Post Ratings. Since then, he has failed to register a win in seven starts but his last run when sixth at Newbury showed some promise in a race that was slowly run. Last year, this race was run at a very strong pace and despite there being no genuine front runners in the field one would expect the same again here which will play to his strengths. Draw 27 should be OK.
No Retreat – He ran well at the start of the year in Dubai winning a decent handicap at Meydan in February before finishing a neck second to Silver Sword at the same track in an even better handicap three weeks later. He was down to run in the Victoria Cup last month but was withdrawn on the morning of the race. He then went to Haydock where he finished a decent third. No Retreat has been very consistent, always making the top three throughout his career. He races off 97 which is 3lbs higher than his Dubai second mentioned above and he looks overpriced at around 25/1. The draw in 1 though is a concern, unless earlier straight track races suggest otherwise. Has raced midfield / near the back in four of his last five runs so hopefully we see the same tactics employed here.
Gorak – At a big price Gorak is interesting. He ran in the race in 2023 and 2024 finishing 12th both times. However, he had valid excuses both times. In 2024 he was badly drawn but was a close up second on his part of the track. In 2023 he stuck to the stands rail and finished first of six in his group, but the centre of the course was strongly favoured that day. If he gets a run he will be drawn 10 which is still lower than ideal, but the likely price will compensate.
Conclusion
English Oak would win this easily if back to last year’s form but at 5/1 or thereabouts the price is just too tight IMO.
Suggestion
Never So Brave e/w at 8/1 and No Retreat e/w at 25/1
If Gorak runs has a small e/w saver at around 33/1
Several bookies are going six places (Bet 365, Betfred, Boyal Sports, Corals, Paddy Power to name but five), seven places with Sky Bet.
More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2025 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 17th to Sat 21st June 2025) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.
Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day three on Thursday 19th June 2025.
Royal Ascot Trends Day Three – Thursday 19th June 2025
2024 – Shareholder (12/1)
2023 – Valiant Force (150/1)
2022 - The Ridler (50/1)
2021 – Perfect Power (14/1)
2020 – The Lir Jet (9/2)
2019 – A’Ali (5/1)
2018 – Shang Shang Shang (5/1)
2017 – Sioux Nation (14/1)
2016 – Prince Of Lir (8/1)
2015 – Waterloo Bridge (12/1)
2014 – Baitha Alga (8/1)
2013 – No Nay Never (4/1)
2012 – Reckless Abandon (4/1)
2011 – Bapak Chinta (6/1)
2010 – Approve (16/1)
2009 – Radiohead (10/1)
2008 – South Central (11/4 fav)
2007 – Winker Watson (2/1 fav)
2006 – Dutch Art (11/4)
2005 – Masta Plasta (7/2)
2004 – Blue Dakota (5/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Valour (4/1)
Norfolk Stakes Trends
22/22 – Had at least 1 previous run
20/22 – Previous winners over 5f
20/22 – Had never raced at Ascot before
18/22 – Had a RPR of 105+
17/22 – Won their previous race
15/22 – Foaled in March or April
12/22 – Favourites placed
11/21 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/22 – Returned a double-figure (or triple) price
3/22 – Winning favourites
3/22 – Ran at Windsor last time out
2/22 – Trained by Wesley Ward
2/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 of the last 10 winners (3 in total)
Richard Fahey have won 2 of the last 4 runnings
11 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc)
The Hannon yard have won the race 4 times
3.05 - King George V Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m4f ITV
King George V Stakes Recent Winners
2024 – Going The Distance (9/1)
2023 – Desert Hero (18/1)
2022 – Secret State (4/1 jfav)
2021 – Surefire (5/1)
2020 – Hukum (12/1)
2019 – South Pacific (22/1)
2018 – Baghdad (9/1)
2017 – Atty Persse (7/1)
2016 - Primitivo (13/2)
2015 – Space Age (9/1)
2014 – Elite Army (4/1 jfav)
2013 – Elidor (20/1)
2012 – Fennell Bay (12/1)
2011 – Brown Panther (4/1 jfav)
2010 – Dandino (7/1)
2009 – Cosmic Sun (66/1)
2008 – Colony (11/2 fav)
2007 – Heron Bay (20/1)
2006 – Linas Selection (9/2)
2005 – Munsef (14/1)
2004 – Admiral (9/1)
2003 – Fantastic Love (10/1)
King George V Stakes Trends
21/22 – Never raced at Ascot before
20/22 – Had at least 2 previous runs that same season
20/22 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
20/22 – Placed last time out
17/22 – Carried 8-13 or less
15/22 – Had won over at least 1m2f previously
13/22 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
11/22 – Favourites placed
12/22 – Won their previous race
6/22 – Won by trainers Sir Michael Stoute (2) or the Johnston camp (4)
4/22 – Ran at Haydock last time out
4/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/22 – Godolphin-owned (Charlie Appleby has trained 2 of the last 10)
12 of the last 19 winners came between stalls 10-20 (inc)
8 of the last 19 winners came between stalls 10-16 (inc)
Ralph Beckett has trained 2 of the last 4 winners
Charlie Appleby has trained 2 of the last 10 winners
William Buick has ridden 2 of the last 10 winners
19/22 – Had never raced at Ascot before
18/22 – Had at least 2 previous races that season
17/22 – Placed in their previous race
16/22 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
15/22 – Placed favourites
14/22 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/22 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
9/22 – Irish-trained winners (8 of last 13)
8/22 – Won their last race
5/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (5 of last 11)
5/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/22 - Trained by John Gosden (5 wins in total)
3/22 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (5 in total)
3/22 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
Just two winners from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
9 of the last 18 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)
21/23 – Had no more than 2 previous runs that season
21/23 – Aged 6 or younger
20/23 – Had between 1-2 previous runs that season
18/23 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat before
18/23 – Favourites that were placed
18/23 – Won their last race
15/23 – Previous Group 1 winners
13/23 – Won by the favourite
11/23 – Aged 4 years-old (9 of the last 13)
10/23 – Irish-trained winners
9/23 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/23 – Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes)
4/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (4 of the last 12)
16 of the last 19 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12 of the last 19 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc) (6 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 7 or lower)
Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2004 & 2012
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner in 2024, 2022, 2016, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
John Gosden has trained the winner in 2018, 2019 and 2020
Since 1949 there have been 16 multiple winners of the race
Since 1930 just 3 winners aged 7+ (Yeats x 2, Drum Taps)
2024 – Mickley (15/2)
2023 – Docklands (6/1 fav)
2022 – Thesis (14/1)
2021 – Perotto (18/1)
2020 – Khaloosy (9/2)
2019 – Biometric (28/1)
2018 – Ostillo (10/1)
2017 – Bless Him (25/1)
2016 – Defrocked (13/2)
2015 – War Envoy (10/1)
2014 – Born In China (14/1)
2013 – Beauty Flame (20/1)
2012 – Fast Or Free (6/1 fav)
2011 – Sagramor (8/1)
2010 – Ransom Note (9/1)
2009 – Fareer (20/1)
2008 – Fifteen Love (28/1)
2007 – Eddie Jock (33/1)
2006 – Sir Gerard (9/2 fav)
2005 – Mostashaar (10/3 fav)
2004 – Mandobi (8/1)
2003 – New Seeker (16/1)
Britannia Stakes Trends
20/22 – Had no more than 3 previous runs that season
18/22 – Had won a race over 7f or 1m before
18/22 – Placed last time out
15/22 – Carried 8-13 or less
14/22 – Failed to win their previous race
14/22 – Had never run at Ascot before
13/22 – Returned a double-figure price
12/22 – Unplaced favourites
9/22 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
9/22 – Had only won over 7f previously
4/22 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
4/22 – Winning favourites
3/22 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Just one top three finish horse from stall 1 in the last 19 runnings
15 of the last 19 winners came from a double-figure stall (2 of the last 5 winners from stall 19)
The first 10 home in 2024 were all from a double-figure stall
Aidan O’Brien has only trained 1 winner (War Envoy, 2015)
8 of the last 10 winners drawn between stalls 10-19
Trainer John Gosden has won the race 4 times (last 2001)
21/22 – Had not raced at Ascot before
19/22 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
19/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
12/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/22 – Had won over 1m2f before
9/22 – Unplaced favourites
7/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 - Ran at Epsom last time out
4/22 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
4/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No winner from stall 1 in the last 19 runnings
15 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
11 of the last 18 winners came from stall 5-9 (inc)
6.10 - Buckingham Palace Handicap (3yo+) 7f ITV4
Buckingham Palace Handicap Trends
9/10 – Returned 12/1 or bigger in the betting
9/10 – Unplaced favourites
9/10 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Had won over at least 6f before
8/10 – Had run at Ascot before
8/10 – Rated between 92-99
8/10 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
7/10 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
6/10 – Had 5+ wins before
4/10 – Bred in Ireland
2/10 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of the last 5)
2/10 – Came from stall 29
2/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
1/10 – Winning favourites
The last 5 winners were aged 4
Since 2002 only 2 winners aged 7+
6 of the last 7 winners from stalls 24+
2024: English Oak (10/3), Ed Walker, James Doyle
================================================
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/MohawkKing_ChurchillBay_Minzaal_Mayaas.jpg319830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2025-06-18 15:15:462025-06-18 17:11:502025 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Three (Thurs 19th June)
This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'm making a suggested placepot permutation each day.
It started well on Tuesday: although the perm only caught 2% of the dividend, that was enough to return £58.11 from a £24.96 stake, including 5% Tix bonus. That's a profit of £33.15.
Let's get to Wednesday, Day 2. And remember, there's another prize giveaway today - see below.
I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]
Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.
When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.
Tix Bonus
Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.
Prizes to be won
And, because it's Royal Ascot week, we've got some Tix prizes to give away
Tuesday to Friday
For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.
Saturday
On the final day of Royal Ascot, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.
So that's £300 in prizes this week!
What do you need?
You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]
**
OK, that's the set up. Let's get to it. The first question is where to go narrow and where to spread out. My inclination was to be narrow in the Group 1's but the Queen Anne and King Charles III are very open, and I hate the 'seven runner with an odds on' feel of the St James's Palace!
Leg 1 - Queen Mary Stakes:
After yesterday's Coventry, it's tempting to bank on True Love, whose form with Gstaad stands out, as does her high draw. But I'll throw in Lennilu and Zelaina on B, too. Mind you, the first three home last year were 22/1, 50/1, 50/1..!
A - 23 True Love
B - 11 Lennilu, 25 Zelaina
Leg 2 - Queen's Vase:
There is a lot of confidence behind the French raider, Asmarani, but I prefer Shackleton and Carmers. Devil's Advocate has the form but not the proven stamina.
A - 3 Carmers, 10 Shackleton
Leg 3 - Duke Of Cambridge Stakes:
The mile trip is a bit on the short side for the very smart Cinderella's Dream but she does have an electric gear change which is just the ticket for this. She's an A banker, fingers crossed.
A - 1 Cinderella's Dream
Leg 4 - Prince Of Wales's Stakes:
Anmaat is too old on trends but bang there on form. A. Los Angeles fits on both. Also A. Hard to see them both off the ticket. Facteur Cheval is an interesting outsider and I might back him win/place on the tote: he'll pay overs.
A - 1 Anmaat, 5 Los Angeles
Leg 5 - Royal Hunt Cup:
Tricky, tricky, tricky. I'm scattering here. My ante post bet was Tokenomics and he's on A, along with all the favourites, and Ancient Rome (Charlie Hills has won this twice since 2019 and it looks like a Jamie Spencer special). Plenty more on B plus unnamed favourite.
A - 5 Qiraat, 6 Ancient Rome, 14 The Liffey, 23 Fox Legacy, 27 My Cloud, 29 Tokenomics
B - 1 Arabian Light, 16 Ebt's Guard, 19 Bullet Point, 25 Greek Order, Unnamed favourite
Leg 6 - Kensington Palace Stakes:
Another tough leg, and should bolster the dividend. Rainbows Edge and Serialise are well(ish) drawn fancied runners and go on A. I'll add Arolla to A, too. Snellen and Sky Safari and Arisaig on B. Nine on C, including unnamed favourite - we'll need to have gone all A's for these C's to count!
A - 1 Rainbows Edge, 3 Arolla, 17 Serialise
B - 2 Snellen, 4 Arisaig, 18 Sky Safari
C - 6, 7, 9, 10, 15, 21, 23, 24, UNF
Full ticket view
I've gone very narrow early in hope of having some funds to splurge in the last two legs. Fair chance we're sunk before that, but that's the game, right?
For pennies, with 2p's (x4) on the A ticket, it comes to £22.68 stakes. A single placed entry from A in each leg gives an 8p winning line, but of course it's possible to get more than one in each.
Full disclosure: as always, even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!
The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:
And the breakdown by ticket is like this:
Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.
Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 daily through Royal Ascot.
More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2025 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 17th to Sat 21st June 2025) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.
Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day two on Wednesday 18th June 2025.
Royal Ascot Trends Day Two – Wednesday 18th June 2025
2.30 - Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) 5f ITV
22/23 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
22/23 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
19/23 – Had won over 5f (or shorter) before
19/23 – Won their previous race
16/23 – Won by a horse foaled between Jan-Mar
16/23 – Placed favourites
9/23 – Won from non UK-based yards
8/23 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
8/23 – Returned a double-figure price
5/23 – Trained in the US
4/23 – Trained by Wesley Ward (including 3 of last 10 runnings)
2/23 – Won by trainer Richard Hannon
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 12+
5 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 20+
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 10+
Trainer Karl Burke has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has NEVER won this race
20/22 – Had never raced at Ascot before
16/22 – Placed last time out
14/22 – Had run over at least 1m4f before
13/22 – Had at least 2 previous career wins
13/22 – Placed favourites
9/22 – Winning favourites
8/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
8/22 – Ran at either Lingfield or Haydock last time out
6/22 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
5/22 - Trained by the Johnston yard
No winner from stall 1 in the last 19 years
The horse from stall 7 has been placed in 8 of the last 18 runnings (4 wins)
18 of the last 19 winners came from a single-figure stall
7 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 7 or 8
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 8
3.40 - The Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Windsor Forest) (Group 2) 1m ITV
20/21 – Had won over a mile (or further) before
19/21 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
18/21 – Won by a 4 year-old
16/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/21 – Had won a Group 3 or better race before
13/21 – Favourites that were placed
13/21 – Had run at Ascot before
7/21 – Had won at Ascot before
7/21 – Returned a double-figure price
6/21 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/21 – Owned by Cheveley Park Stud
5/21 – Ran at Epsom last time out
5/21 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of the last 13 and 3 of last 5 runnings)
3/21 – Ridden by William Buick (3 of last 13)
2/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of last 13)
2/21 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/21 – Winners from stall 1
2 French-trained winners since 2016
Only 6 placed horses (2 winners) from stall 1 in the last 21 runnings
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has NEVER won this race
4.20 - Prince of Wales's Stakes (Group 1) 1m2f ITV
Prince of Wales's Stakes Recent Winners
2024 – Auguste Rodin (13/8 fav)
2023 – Mostahdaf (10/1)
2022 – State Of Rest (5/1)
2021 – Love (11/10 fav)
2020 – Lord North (5/1)
2019 – Crystal Ocean (3/1)
2018 – Poet’s Word (11/2)
2017 – Highland Reel (9/4)
2016 – My Dream Boat (16/1)
2015 – Free Eagle (5/2 fav)
2014 – The Fugue (11/2)
2013 – Al Kazeem (11/4)
2012 – So You Think (4/5 fav)
2011 – Rewilding (17/2)
2010 – Byword (5/2 fav)
2009 – Vision D’etat (4/1)
2008 – Duke of Marmalade (Evs fav)
2007 – Manduro (15/8 fav)
2006 – Ouija Board (8/1)
2005 – Azamour (11/8 fav)
2004 – Rakti (3/1)
2003 – Nayef (5/1)
2002 - Grandera (4/1)
Prince of Wales's Stakes Trends
23/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
22/23 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
22/23 – Won by a 4 or 5 year-old
19/23 – Finished in the top three last time out
19/23 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
16/23 – Were previous Group 1 winners
16/23 – Placed favourites
13/23 – Had run at Ascot before
12/23 – Won their last race
12/23 – Won by a non-UK based trainer
8/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4 of the last 13) (5 in total)
3/23 – Trained by John Gosden (5 wins in total)
2/23 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (5 wins in total)
3 of the last 17 runnings have gone to a French-trained horse
Ryan Moore has ridden 3 winners since 2017
No winner aged 7+ since the race was reintroduced in 1968
5.00 - Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) 1m ITV
Royal Hunt Cup Recent Winners
2024 – Wild Tiger (11/2 jfav)
2023 – Jimi Hendrix (22/1)
2022 – Dark Shift (13/2)
2021 – Real World (18/1)
2020 – Dark Vision (15/2)
2019 – Afaak (20/1)
2018 – Settle For Bay (16/1)
2017 – Zhui Feng (25/1)
2016 – Portage (10/1)
2015 – GM Hopkins (8/1)
2014 – Field of Dream (20/1)
2013 – Belgian Bill (33/1)
2012 – Prince Of Johanne (16/1)
2011 – Julienas (12/1)
2010 – Invisible Man (28/1)
2009 – Forgotten Voice (4/1 fav)
2008 – Mr Aviator (25/1)
2007 – Royal Oath (9/1)
2006 – Cesare (14/1)
2005 – New Seeker (11/1)
2004 – Mine (16/1)
2003 – Macadamia (8/1)
2002 – Norton (25/1)
Royal Hunt Cup Trends
20/23 – Had won over at least a mile before
20/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
17/23 – Carried 9-1 or less
16/23 – Unplaced favourites
16/23 – Returned a double-figure price
14/23 – Had run at Ascot before
14/23 – Won by a 4 year-old (inc 11 of the last 15 runnings)
12/23 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs that season
7/23 – Won their last race
3/23 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor (3 of the last 15)
2/23 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/23 – Won by trainer John Gosden
2/23 – Won by trainer Charles Hills (2 of the last 6)
2/23 – Winning favourites
Overall, high number stalls have dominated in recent years (the first 6 home in 2024 were ALL double-figure stalls)
15 of the last 19 winners came from a double-figure stall
We’ve seen 3 winners from stall 33 in the last 16 runnings
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has NEVER won this race
4 previous runnings
No winning favourite yet
All four past winners aged 4
All four winners drawn between 8-21
All four winners returned a double figure price
Villanova Queen (25/1) won this race in 2023
Rising Star (40/1) won this race in 2022
Trainer Ralph Beckett won the race in 2024 (Doha)
Trainer Mrs John Harrington won this race in 2023
Trainer Marco Botti won this race in 2022
23/23 – Had at least 1 previous outing
22/23 – Won by a foal born April or earlier
19/23 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs
17/23 – Had won over 5f before
17/23 – Placed last time out
17/23 – Had never run at Ascot before
12/23 – Returned a double-figure price (inc a 100/1 winner)
12/23 – Unplaced favourites
11/23 – Won their previous race
9/23 – Won by a Feb foal
5/23 – Winning favourites
2/23 – Trained by Wesley Ward
2/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of last 10)
Just 2 horses placed from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings
12 of the last 17 winners came from a double-figure stall
Trainer Kevin Ryan has won 2 of the last 13
================================================
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Oxted_KingsStand_RoyalAscot2021.jpg319830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2025-06-17 15:30:032025-06-17 16:11:472025 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Two (Weds 18th June)
It's Day Two, Wednesday, at the Royal Ascot jamboree and we're blessed once more with a magnificent seven races headlined by the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes for older horses over a mile and quarter. As with each weekday of the Royal meeting, I'm sharing preview responsibilities with a collective of talented and shrewd racing writers. Still, it's me on the kick off legs and we start with some classy young fillies in the...
2.30 THE QUEEN MARY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A massive field of 25 juvenile fillies go to post for the five furlong Queen Mary Stakes. Most have had just one, or perhaps two, runs so form is thin on the ground; virtually all of them will be capable of more than they've shown so far. So how do choose among them? We could try some trends.
The first thing I noticed was a draw angle. In the last ten years, field sizes have ranged from 17 to 26. The winner in 2023 was drawn 26 of 26. The year before she was in 17 of 21; in 2021, she was 21 of 21; in Covid year, of course, the winner was drawn 1 of 18!; and before that, 22 of 25, 16 of 22, 20 of 23, 14 of 17, and 17 of 20. These are 'actual' stall positions after accounting for non-runners.
Last year's winner, Leovanni, exited stall 10, and the second - a 50/1 shot - departed from stall 22 of 24. It probably helps to be high, or at least close to either rail (though, given jockeys tend to race together, that probably still means high). Clear as mud?
In spite of the enormous fields, the first or second favourite has won six times and returned a profit on level stakes.
An American-trained filly has won four times in the last decade, most recently George Weaver's Crimson Advocate in 2023. Karl Burke has won two of the last three Queen Mary renewals, and his three entries were 3rd/5th/7th of 26 in the non-winning year.
The last eight winners all had a prominent run style, and the other two in the ten year trends led.
Five of the last ten winners were unbeaten in one before the race; only the Wes Ward speedball Lady Aurelia, in 2015, had yet to win, and even three outsiders (18/1, 22/1 and 25/1) were last day scorers.
Those are some reasonable angles to go at. The high drawn last day winners are America and Viamarie, both big prices. The top two in the market are Zelaina, trained by Karl Burke for last year's winning owner, Wathnan Racing, and American raider Lennilu, trained by Pat Biancone. Both fancied fillies are drawn middle, which didn't stop Leovanni last year but may be sub-optimal. I'll also throw in Secret Hideaway and Harry's Girl, whose form looks strong.
Karl Burke runs two this time, Zelaina being much the more obvious. As a £650,000 breeze up purchase she's entitled to be fast and she lived up to that billing when sprinting away from her field on debut at Nottingham, eventually scoring by almost three lengths. The time wasn't dazzling and she got a highly efficient ride (finishing speed percentage was 100.85%) but it was visually very impressive: quick from the gate, travelled strongly, pulled clear. She's just not much of a price.
The US filly, Lennilu, started with a win on the slop at Keeneland before shipping down to Florida for a turf stakes race. She showed good early speed there - perenially a feature of American entries at Royal Ascot - and galloped right through the line. That was a flat five around a bend, however, and this is a straight five with a stiff finish. I expect she'll be typically front rank through three furlongs and then who knows? Luis Saez, one of the world's best riders, makes his British debut.
While we're guessing as to the substance of the form with those once raced fillies, Harry's Girl has run twice and winners have emerged from her encounters. Of the two runs, her second in the Marygate has been advertised with the three subsequent runners - having finished 6th, 8th and 9th at York - all winning. But the Marygate winner and third, Secret Hideaway and Love Olivia, the latter being Burke's other entry, also rock up for this dance.
Love Olivia blazed the trail in the Marygate but was spent by the time Secret Hideaway, trained by Adrian Keatley, wore down Harry's Girl (Richard Hannon) in the last strides having been off the speed for much of the race. It's likely the winner is the best of the three and I'm a little surprised she's a longer price than the filly she beat. They're drawn adjacent, in 18 and 19, which is ostensibly a positive for both. It's worth noting that the Marygate winner has won the Queen Mary four times since 2006.
In the long grass - it's a race that has rewarded such boldness on occasion - Viamarie comes from the Kempton poly to the Ascot turf which can kindly be described as an unfashionable route. But she showed a lot of late speed that day having been slowest from the gate. She'd need to improve her start, which she ought to given the benefit of that experience, and she'll be running on late, though perhaps/probably too late.
Brian Meehan has run 26 juveniles at Royal Ascot since 2009, winning twice (including 80/1 Rashabar in last year's Coventry) and notching a second, three thirds and a fifth placed finish. As such, his America is not without hope. She was only third on debut, in a 6f Yarmouth maiden, seeming not to quite get home. The fourth and seventh, as well as America herself, have won since. Dropped to the fairly stiff five furlongs at Bath last time, she showed good mid-race speed to take the lead and ran on gamely. The second won next time. Stall 24 might help her cause.
True Love's form was given an almighty boost yesterday, with her last day conqueror and stablemate Gstaad bolting up in the Coventry. She was only three-quarters of a length behind him, a literal interpretation of which means she's home for all money. But Aidan has not fared well in the Queen Mary: it's one of the few Royal Ascot non-handicaps he's never won.
Society Kiss, a maiden winner over course and distance, and Staya, another punchy breeze up purchase who won her sole start, at Yarmouth, are others to consider in a race where we'll all be wiser afterwards!
Suggestion: Try small win savers on Lennilu at 15/2 and Staya at 12/1, and a slightly bolder each way play on Secret Hideaway at 22/1 (5 places with Sky/PP). Hail (Queen) Mary players could do worse than throw a miniscule dart at America, 40/1 with 5 places. Naturally, the short-priced favourite might beat them all.
3.05 THE QUEEN'S VASE (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A baker's dozen is entered for the 1m6f Queen's Vase, Group 2 for three-year-olds. The race was run over two miles prior to 2017 when it also upgraded from Listed class to its current status.
Aidan O'Brien has won half of the most recent twelve renewals, though Illinois's win last year was the Ballydoyle maestro's first since 2020. Ryan Moore has ridden four of Aidan's five winners since 2015.
The longest priced winner since the race changes eight years ago was Kemari in 2021; he returned 15/2 second favourite. The top three in the betting have had the top spot on the podium in a scarcely relenting half nelson since 2003, only Sword Fighter - Aidan's non-Ryan-ridden winner - returning north of 15/2. For completeness, the 2007 winner, Mahler, was fourth favourite when winning at 7/1. The other 20 of the last 22 winners were all top three in the market.
Aloft in 2015 is the only winner since 2002 to start from a double figure stall, exiting 'actual' stall 10 of 13. Five of the last 12 winners were drawn 2-5.
Only two of the last twelve winners were held up, with two - including last year's scorer - making all and five more racing handily (three were mid-division).
So, on recent evidence, we're after a fancied horse from a lowish stall with a bit of tactical speed to hold a position in the front half of the field. The two which most obviously fit the bill are Shackleton and Carmers.
Shackleton is the Aidan/Ryan entry and about as obvious a bet as you will find all week. A son of Camelot, he's stepping up fully half a mile from a couple of ten furlong races where he was outpaced. He ought to have the gears to find a handy slot early from stall three and, though stamina is unproven, connections' fingerprints are all over this one.
Paddy Twomey send Carmers, an inexperienced but highly progressive sort who is two from two, both this season. He started out in a Ballinrobe maiden and followed up in a Navan Listed contest, easily by three lengths - both races so far over a mile and five. So no stamina doubts, some proven class and lots of upside potential. This is a bigger field, though, and a third career start in six weeks. He has a very similar profile to the 2023 winner, Gregory.
Francis-Henri Graffard sends the Aga Khan Estate's Sottsass colt Asmarani across la Manche, and he's another which was unraced at two. In three goes this year, he was second either side of a Saint-Cloud maiden score, most recently in a Group 3. All three runs were on soft or very soft, but it is presumed that the trainer believes he'll improve for better ground. He'll need to on the face of it.
The Gosdens have Devil's Advocate, a staying on fourth in the Dante at York when last seen. He's another for whom stamina is not assured, being by Too Darn Hot, a reasonable miler influence. His damsire is Nathaniel, which offer plenty more hope, and his half-brother was second at a mile and a half. Still not sure! Nevertheless, that Dante run is probably the best form shown so far notwithstanding that many will improve for the longer distance here.
I'm keeping this fairly simple and siding with SHACKLETON, with a small saver on Carmers. I'll let the rest beat me, which they very well might do...
Suggestion: Back Shackleton at 3/1 or bigger. Save on Carmers at 5/1 or bigger.
3.40 THE DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by David Massey
You have to say that, even with a 3lb penalty to carry for her Dahlia Stakes win, Cinderella’s Dream is going to be hard to beat here.
She panned Elmalka 4½ lengths there and even though the latter is dropping back to a mile, which will help, it’s hard to see how she turns that form around. In any case, that was Cinderella’s Dream merely backing up what she’d shown in two previous starts, and she looks every bit as good at 4 as she did last year. She probably needs no more than a repeat of that Dahlia effort to come out on top, with her nearest rival on ratings, Fallen Angel, looking to bounce back after a lesser effort in the Lockinge. She looked very much in need of the run beforehand and sweated up badly, so can possibly be forgiven, but you’d not want to see similar behaviour today. She’s going to be tried in a pair of cheekpieces after that below par Newbury effort, which might help her cause, but she just has a few question marks over her at present.
Running Lion is of some interest now she drops back to a mile. Winner of this race last year, beating Laurel a ready two lengths, she’s been running perfectly well over further, her second in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on Arc day as good a piece of form as anything she’s shown; but I think she’s best around this sort of trip, rather than further. Her form is very hit-and-miss, so the addition of cheekpieces could be a catalyst for her to return to her best, which would give her a fair chance. Definitely not an each-way bet, but a small saver on her at 8-1? I couldn’t put you off.
One Look keeps progressing with every start and her ½ length second to Porta Fortuna in the Lanwades Stakes rates a very good effort. She tries hard, which I always think is half the battle won with fillies, and might not have finished improving yet. She’s been highly consistent, which isn’t something you can say for many of these, but the one time she tackled good to firm ground was a disappointment, so she does have that question to answer.
Of those at double-figure prices, Soprano, who can’t have it quick enough, is probably the one that appeals most. There’s no doubt she has to take another step forward form-wise, but she at least comes here fit and running well after her win at Kempton in the Listed Snowdrop Fillies Stakes. She’s a keen-going sort and could be vulnerable late, but on what promises to be rattling fast ground, she could be a danger to all if allowed to bounce along on the front end with a soft lead.
Selection: Cinderella's Dream at 2/1
4.20 THE PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Rory Delargy
Always one of the classiest contests of the entire week since being renewed in the late 1960’s, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes isn’t a race to look for shocks, with only two winners at double-digit odds since Lear Spear won at 20/1 in 1999 for David Elsworth and owner Raymond Tooth.
Continuous is likely to go to the front, but it’s far from certain he will make it an end-to-end gallop, as stablemate Los Angeles is at his best when close to the front end himself, and it’s likely Continuous will set easy enough fractions if allowed, with a view to allowing Los Angeles to get to the front early in the straight where he can get his challengers lining up for a fight. He was seen to excellent effect in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, leading two furlongs out and battling back after being headed by Anmaat.
He relishes a head-to-head and Ryan Moore would love a repeat of the tactics which saw him win at the Curragh, with Ascot’s stiff finish suiting the strong-staying Los Angeles down to the ground.
Anmaat won the Champion Stakes over C&D in the autumn and was having his first race since when narrowly denied by Los Angeles at the Curragh, and he could come forward for the run, which gives him claims of turning the tables. He travels strongly for all he can take a bit of time to hit full stride and although he was a 40/1 shot when scoring here in the autumn, there was no hint of fluke about the result, and his Group 1 record now reads two wins and a close second from three runs, having also taken the Prix d’Ispahan in 2023. He is a danger if Jim Crowley can keep Los Angeles and Ryan Moore in his cross-hairs.
Facteur Cheval has been placed in six of his 11 starts at the top level, but his only win in those races came in the Dubai Turf at Meydan last year. He was unplaced in the latest running of that race, and may not be quite the force of old at the age of six, so is passed over. Sea The Fire, on the other hand, looked better than ever when running away with the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York last time, and has been supplemented for this race at some cost. She has place claims, but seven runs at Group 1 level have failed to reap any reward, and that counts against her win claims.
Map of Stars has yet to race on ground quicker than good (according to Timeform) but ran well when second in the Prix Ganay last time and is another with place claims if handling slightly firmer turf. Ombudsman is stepping up in class after losing his unbeaten record in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last time and isn’t the easiest to weigh up. He is hard to dismiss given his largely progressive profile, and is worth including in exotics.
Win: Los Angeles Exotics: Los Angeles & Anmaat (Reverse Exacta)
Los Angeles/Anmaat over Sea The Fire, Map of Stars, Ombudsman (Trifecta Box)
5.00 THE ROYAL HUNT CUP (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)
Presented by Dave Renham
Let me start by examining the 15-year trends for the Royal Hunt Cup.
Market factors
Four single figure priced winners, eleven double figure priced winners, nine of which were 16/1+ and six were 20/1+.
Weight
In terms of weight carried the ideal has been to be at the mid to lower end of the weights. If you work the average weight of the runners each year, horses carrying the average weight or lower have won 11 of the last 15 renewals.
Age
4yos have 10 wins from 184 runners (5.4%); 17% placed.
5yos have 3 wins from 105 runners (2.9%); 15% placed.
6yo and older have 2 wins from 140 runners (1.4%); 9% placed.
4yos clearly have the best record.
Draw
The draw in big field handicaps at Ascot on the straight track can really play a part, but this is the first big field handicap of the week so at this stage there are no strong clues. Looking at the last 15 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the ‘rags’. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account, so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:
Stalls
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5
0.44
0.44
6 to 10
0.47
0.53
11 to 15
0.52
0.59
16 to 20
0.59
0.63
21 to 25
0.48
0.53
26 to 30
0.49
0.51
It seems that middle draws of 11 to 20 have done best especially those drawn 16 to 20.
Run Style
I have taken a similar approach for run style looking at the PRBs for each group. These are:
Run Style
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group
0.40
0.44
Prominent
0.42
0.45
Mid Division
0.53
0.57
Held up
0.57
0.60
7 of the last 15 races have been won by hold-up horses and they have the best PRB figures too. This is the type of race where a midfield or back of the field sit early is preferable.
Recent form trends
11 of the last 15 winners finished in the top four LTO.
Horses that have won at least once in their last five starts have been twice as likely to win compared to those who have failed a register a win in their last five runs.
Analysis
I backed Volterra a few weeks back, but he has not been declared. Below are what I feel are the main players.
My Cloud – He has never been out of the first two in his five careers starts and is two from two this year. He is clearly progressing and despite being 15lb higher than the beginning of the year there is probably more to come. The price though is short for such a competitive race with a such a big field. Drawn 32.
Fox Legacy – He was a 12-length winner over 10f last year when trained by Sir Michael Stoute and he has switched to the Andrew Balding yard for this season. He won well on his reappearance over 9f at Newmarket and despite being raised 6lb he may have more to come. Tends to adopt a midfield run style which is a positive. He has yet to win at a mile but four of the last eight winners of this race also had not won over this trip. Drawn 11 which should be ok.
Greek Order – Back in the UK after an unsuccessful time in the States, Greek Order has strong claims on his best form. His second in the 2023 Cambridgeshire when trained by the Charlton stable highlights his ability and his potential claims here, especially if adopts his normal hold up style. He is now with Michael Bell who is having his best season by far for many years. I noted money at 70s on Betfair in the not-too-distant past but that was immediately snapped up and the price has just continued to drop and drop. Drawn 30. Based on the current price it is not a bet for me anymore, but I expect a decent run.
For those looking for a huge price that may offer each way value there are two that I can see running well.
La Trinidad – La Trinidad tends to ply his trade in handicaps up North. His record on good to firm ground is four wins and three placed from 12 runs and amazingly he is five wins from six in the month of June. He is now an 8yo which is a negative race trend, but he actually seems to be improving. His two runs this year have seen two decent third placed efforts, and last year he won off 92 and 96 – his two highest winning marks. His hold up style is a positive and looks well berthed in 18. With plenty of bookmakers offering extra places, he may sneak into one of those at big odds.
Epictetus - He was rated as high as 113 in 2023 when trained by the Gosdens and won a Group 3 and was not disgraced in a couple of runs at Group 2 level. 2024 saw him run just twice and both were disappointing. Now with Jamie Osborne he was 5th to My Cloud LTO beaten around 5 lengths on his reappearance in May. He’s down to a mark of 101 so if he comes on for that run then as with La Trinidad, at big odds, he looks to be one for those bookies offering extra places. Drawn in 29 and he is likely to be played late by Saffie.
Suggestion
Half stake on
Fox Legacy e/w at 12/1
Split the other half of the stake into two smaller punts on
La Trinidad 40/1 & Epictetus 50/1 both e/w
Most bookies are going 6 places, 7 with Sky Bet/Paddy Power.
5.35 THE KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Fillies' Handicap)
Presented by Gavin Priestley
A new handicap introduced to the meeting for the first time in 2021 for four-year-old and upwards fillies and mares. We have just four years of data and I'm wary of using such a small sample size but if we include the first four home in the four runnings it gives us a bit more information to work with.
Looking at these 16 runners we can see that 4yo's won all 4 renewals and fill 14 of the 16 win and places
All 16 win and places went to horses that had run at least 4 times and all 16 had finished top 8 last time out
All 4 winners and 13 of the 16 win and places had raced in the previous 45 days with just 1 placer from 11 runners who had been rested more than 50 days
All 13 of the runners that last raced on the AW have been beaten (3 placed)
The 3 British trained runners had their last run in a class 3 or 4 race and were stepping up or dropping down in distance (from 7f & 1m2f) while the Irish trained winner last ran in a 7f Listed race
All 37 horses that had their last start over a mile have been beaten although 7 have been placed
Using these trends would lead us to a shortlist of fpur runners including a couple of outsiders who last ran 4th and 5th in a Listed race over 10f at Haydock. Francophone is tried in first time cheekpieces and Charlie Johnston's 4yo filly was an easy winner of a handicap the last time she ran over a mile. She hasn't been getting home over the longer trip in her two starts this year and is an interesting contender back over a mile at around 40/1.
The other runner from that Haydock race, Ambiente Amigo, won a Listed race at Nottingham earlier in the season (well beaten 5th won a handicap next time out) and was 13 lengths adrift of See The Fire in the Group 2 Middleton at York but was within a length and a quarter of the highly rated second (113) and third (107) that day. She had led at the two-furlong pole before she, and the rest of the field, were readily brushed aside by the runaway winner and she could appreciate the drop back to a mile. Her trainer puts up a 7lb claimer who has incredibly won on three of her last four rides (including for this trainer) and she's another who could outrun her odds.
Roger Charlton's Arolla split a couple of 107 and 106 rated fillies in a Listed 7f contest at Musselburgh 11 days ago on her seasonal reappearance; she raced prominently there and kept on well through the final furlong. She'd won her maiden over a mile and was a very easy winner of a novice event on her next start so she's another who should appreciate returning to a mile, although a 4lb rise for that Listed 2nd last time means she races off 100 for this which looks a little high to me for her handicap debut.
The fourth filly on the shortlist is Andrew Balding's Miss Information who was a beaten favourite at the Epsom Derby meeting under a 5lb penalty for winning at Newmarket on her start before. She has raced mainly over 7f and was a well beaten favourite on her only try at a mile to date and, while the ground will be no problem, she has struggled when racing off a rating in the low 90's. Her 3rd in a big field big pot 7f handicap at York last August was very decent form that would give her every chance, but with doubts about her getting the trip and her current rating I'm going to pass.
From the four fillies that made the Trends cut I'm going to take a chance on the James Owen 4yo AMBIENTE AMIGO, under her in-form jockey. This filly will go on the ground and, you could also argue, is quite well treated on some of her form earlier in the season. The drop back from 10f is the big imponderable but she's been bang there at the mile before fading out of the running on her last two starts over further. At odds of around 33/1 I'm willing to take the chance she won't be inconvienced by the trip too much.
SELECTION: AMBIENTE AMIGO 1/2pt EW 33/1 (5 places)
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6.10 THE WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)
Presented by Victor Value
The Windsor Castle Stakes concludes Wednesday’s card at Royal Ascot, and I was able to find the winner last year so let's hope for a repeat.
Trends to Note
The ten-year stats (based on 239 qualifying runners) reveal a few interesting patterns:
The market holds up well. Big shocks are rare. Horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger are 0/142, with just 6 places.
Draw bias exists — unlike Tuesday’s Coventry Stakes, there’s a clear edge for those drawn in the first or final quarters of the stalls. Runners drawn in the middle two quarters are 1/125, with 11 places.
Only 4 of the last 10 winners had won on their previous start. Interestingly, last-time-out winners have underperformed by 44% compared market expectations.
Another solid angle: since 2015, all winners had started 9/1 or shorter on their most recent run. Those who went off 10/1+ last time out are 0/46, with 5 placing.
Contenders:
Twenty-four runners go to post but, despite the field size, just five caught my eye.
Rogue Legend made it 2 from 3 when making all at Tipperary 22 days ago. He tops the Racing Post Ratings coming into this, and his form would have been good enough to win the last five renewals of this race. This is his first run on ground quicker than good, but if he handles it, he’s a worthy favourite and the most likely winner.
Old Is Gold built on debut promise (behind Military Code) here by landing the bet365 Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley 25 days ago. He travelled well and ran on well and I was taken with his performance. Now running in Wathnan Racing colours and trained by Andrew Balding, who won this race in 2020. Big player.
Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2015 and runs two, Kansas and First Approach. Ryan Moore rides Kansas, which looks the yard’s number one. He’s hit the frame on all three starts without winning, but he’s shown plenty of speed. If Moore can settle him in this big field, he’s in the mix.
First Approach beat Kansas at Naas in May, though had fitness on his side. Well beaten in the Group 3 Marble Hill last time (possibly didn’t stay 6f), and Moore siding with Kansas says plenty for me.
Havana Hurricane looked useful when winning on debut at Goodwood and improved again when runner-up in the Woodcote Stakes (6f) at Epsom. He made a bold move 2f out, but his effort flattened out inside the final furlong. The drop to 5f looks a good move. He may come up a little short class-wise but should run well.
Utmost Respect was a 220,000 gns Craven breeze-up purchase I April, and I was impressed with him physically when I saw him prior to his debut at York’s Dante Meeting. He was a clear eye-catcher that day having repeatedly not got any sort of run between the final two furlongs. Once in the clear he hit the line strongly to finish ½ length second to Ballistic Missile. Open to plenty of improvement, and I am hoping it’s significant that Richard Fahey throws him straight into deep end for his second start.
Windsor Castle Verdict:
Rogue Legend’s form is already good enough to win the race, and he might be capable of an even bigger performance. For me he’s a worthy favourite and if you fancy him, I wouldn’t put you off. Old Is Gold impressed with his attitude when winning at Beverley last time and is a big contender. Despite being a three-race maiden, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Kansas just yet and given his yard’s record in the race, he’s got to be respected. I think Utmost Respect is set for a very big run for a trainer who has won 2-year-old races at Royal Ascot in the past.
Selection: I might have saver on Rogue Legend if he drifts out to 6/1 but for now, I’m with Utmost Respect each way at the 20/1 available with Bet365.
Utmost Respect: 1pt each way – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places)
This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'll be making a suggested placepot permutation each day.
I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]
Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.
When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.
Tix Bonus
Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.
Prizes to be won
And, because it's Royal Ascot week, we've got some Tix prizes to give away
Tuesday to Friday
For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.
Saturday
On the final day of Royal Ascot, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.
So that's £300 in prizes this week!
What do you need?
You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]
**
OK, that's the set up. Let's get to it. The first question is where to go narrow and where to spread out. My inclination was to be narrow in the Group 1's but the Queen Anne and King Charles III are very open, and I hate the 'seven runner with an odds on' feel of the St James's Palace!
Leg 1 - Queen Anne Stakes:
In the end I've opted to bank in the first race and prey (and potentially place lay) for Rosallion. He should improve a ton from Newbury. There are lots and lots of dangers but I want to throw plenty of mud in later legs so it's Rosallion banker and devil take the hindmost.
A - 10 Rosallion
Leg 2 - Coventry Stakes:
The 123 last year were 80/1, 40/1, 50/1 so I'm putting a cast of thousands on a dreamy C ticket. I'll need A horses to place in the all other five legs for this to fly and, in truth, it's probably not too smart. I'm also loading up on A's. If we survive leg 2, it will be interesting.
A - 1 American Gulf, 9 Gstaad, 12 Postmodern, 13 Power Blue, 20 Underwriter
C - 4 Bone Marra, 5 Bourbon Blues, 6 Coppull, 8 Gavoo, 10 Kolkata Knight, 16 Shaatir, 17 Super Soldier, 19 Tricky Tel
Leg 3 - King Charles III Stakes:
23 runners, only three places up for grabs. Sheesh. Regional is fast, so too Asfoora who sees out a stiff five well as she did when winning this last year. Believing is a third very obvious dart. Hard to see all three missing the podium. Ed Walker has improved Mgheera since she arrived from France and she may not be finished yet.
A - 7 Regional, 12 Asfoora, 14 Believing, 16 Mgheera
Leg 4 - St James's Palace Stakes:
I really want to bank on Henri Matisse but I'm not brave enough. You might be!
A - 1 Field Of Gold, 3 Henri Matisse
Leg 5 - Ascot Stakes:
Willie has a good grip on the market here, and he's bagged Buick and Moore to ride Poniros and Reaching High respectively. That pair will take out chunks of the pool between them so we need to find something that might knock them off the tickets. Poniros is drawn higher than ideal. East India Dock's jump mark of 145+ implies he has a bit more to give on the level though he's been in a lot of scraps without a break. 18 is a bad draw, too. Manxman is progressive, handles big fields, is tactically versatile and has a great post. Mr Hampstead has snuck in at the bottom of the weights and is also well drawn and progressive.
Woot City is well related, well drawn and a massive price. C. Divine Comedy placed last year and the trainer has a fantastic Ascot record. Also C, along with the well drawn guesses Ascending and Saturn.
C - 3 Divine Comedy, 9 Ascending, 12 Saturn, 18 Woot City
Leg 6 - Wolferton Stakes:
Only once since this race became a non-handicap in 2018 has the unnamed favourite missed the frame - and that was in the inaugural non-handicap renewal. It's likely to be Enfjaar but we'll let the market decide. On B, I'll roll with a Wathnan trio in Haunted Dream, Torito and King's Gambit.
A - Unnamed favourite
B - 10 Haunted Dream, 11 King's Gambit, 15 Torito
Full ticket view
For pennies, £24.96 stakes. A single placed entry from A in each leg gives a 4p winning line, but of course it's possible to get more than one in each.
Full disclosure: even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!
The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:
And the breakdown by ticket is like this:
Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.
Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 daily through Royal Ascot.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TixPicks.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-06-16 12:01:422025-06-16 17:23:01Royal Ascot Tix Picks, Day 1
And so to the most international race meeting in the British calendar, Royal Ascot. The 2025 edition looks as star-studded as ever and continues to bask in its royal patronage, one of the features of the opening day named in honour of our current reigning monarch.
For the most part there's quantity as well as quality, which doubtless means winner-finding will be tough; but in what follows, I've assembled some of the sharpest quills in the inkpot for, primarily, your entertainment and enlightenment. Naturally, a winner or three will not be unwelcome.
A quick note that our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race (*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).
2.30 THE QUEEN ANNE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Dave Renham
I have the honour of kicking off Royal Ascot 2025 for the Geegeez tipping team solet’s see if we can start off on the right foot.
Queen Anne Trends
I'll start by looking at some race trends for the last 15 years of this four-year-old and up mile Group 1 contest:
Age
4yos recorded 11 wins from 81 runners (13.6%); 31% placed.
5yo took 3 wins from 59 runners (5.1%); 24% placed.
6yo and up hadjust 1 win from 37 runners ( 2.7%); 11% placed.
Based on these figures, 4yos have been by far the dominant group from a win perspective and, to a lesser extent, a placed perspective.
Market factors
9 wins for favourites
Horses priced 6/4 or shorter were 8 wins from 10
However, since 2018 there have been three big-priced winners – two at 33/1 and one at 14/1.
Course form
Course winners secured 9 wins from 58 runners (15.5%) with 34.5% placed.
Those without a course win had 6 wins from 119 runners (5%) with 19% placed.
A win at the course has definitely been a positive over the past 15 years.
Position LTO
9 winner also won LTO from 48 runners (18.8%).
Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO were 6 from 129 (4.7%).
LTO winners performed well from a smallish sample.
Course LTO
9 winners ran LTO at Newbury from 67 runners (13.4%) with almost all of them (65) having raced in the Lockinge. Hence, the Lockinge has been by far the best trial for this contest in recent years.
Race Class LTO
13 of the 15 winners raced in a Group 1 race LTO. LTO Group 1 runners have provided 55% of the total runners in the race and just under 87% of the winners.
Career win percentage
Horses with a career win percentage of 60% or more provided 8 winners from just 21 runners (38.1%) for a BSP profit of £34.62 (ROI +164.9%).
Queen Anne Preview
The first four home in the Lockinge - Lead Artist (1st), Dancing Gemini (2nd), Rosallion (3rd) and Notable Speech (4th) - reoppose here. In that race the first two home had the benefit of a previous run, while the third and fourth were making their seasonal debut.
Logic dictates that both Rosallion and Notable Speech will come on for that run and the trainers of both have made comments in the press to that effect. Also, I felt that Lead Artist and Dancing Gemini had the run of that race, always being up with the pace.
There are potentially two ways to approach the Queen Anne – one is playing the win market, the other looking for an each way runner at a price. In terms of the win strategy, the first one I’m drawn to consider is ROSALLION. He heads the market and looks a worthy favourite to me. Two from two at Ascot, including a win last year at the Royal meeting in the St James’s Palace, he is also the only one of four horses mentioned so far to have a career win record of over 60%. He ticks most of the trends except for winning LTO, and is also the joint highest rated in the race on official ratings.
Notable Speech is the other joint top rated in terms of ORs and he is a bigger price than Rosallion. Third in the Breeder’s Cup Mile suggests he has the class to go close, but the issue for me is his Ascot run last year in the St James’s Palace where he was a well beaten 7th. As illustrated earlier, course winners tend to out-perform non-course winners.
I am expecting Dancing Gemini to reverse form with Lead Artist and if this was being run anywhere else, I would be very interested in his chance. However, in two runs at Ascot Roger Teal's four-year-old has been some way beliw his best, albeit one of those runs was only his second career start. He does seem to have improved his form this season, but that Ascot runs are a concern.
Sardinian Warrior is 4 from 6 in his career so that is positive on the trends. He won here earlier this year in the Listed Queen Anne trial (Paradise Stakes) and followed that up with a decent second in France in soft ground over 9f. Back to a mile here, he has sound claims.
For each way players it is possible to make a case for Lake Forest, and to a lesser extent Carl Spackler and Diego Velazquez.
However, Docklands, who I believe is best on fast ground, has some appeal based on his price. On official ratings he has a bit to find, but he was the lowest rated runner in this race last year when finishing second of 13. His record at Ascot is excellent with two firsts, three seconds and one third from six starts, and his PRB at the course stands at 0.94. I think he is a 6 to 8lb better horse here at Ascot. He was second to Sardinian Warrior in that trial here in April, beaten half a length, and is around 25/1 compared with Sardinian Warrior at around 7/1. At the time of writing, he is 25/1 with a few firms who are offering 4 places, which looks real value to me. Crack Australian jockey Mark Zahra gets the ride: he's inexperienced at the track but a top rider in his country with two of the three Melbourne Cups since 2022 to his name.
This is a cracking race to start the meeting off with very few runners that could comfortably be written off.
Suggestion:
1pt win Rosallion at 11/4
0.25pts each way Docklands 25/1, 4 places
3.05 THE COVENTRY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Victor Value
It's great to be back on the team again and, just like 12 months ago, I'll be covering four of the juvenile races at Royal Ascot.
I know it’s heresy for jumps fans, but Royal Ascot beats Cheltenham for me: it’s more competitive, it’s global, and it doesn’t need “Festival” added on — it’s the original.
The Group 2 Coventry Stakes is one of Royal Ascot’s most prestigious juvenile races and often a launchpad to Group 1 glory. First run in 1890, it’s been a nursery for top-level sprinters and milers.
Recent winners include:
Bradsell (2022) – Went on to win the King’s Stand/Charles III (2023) and Nunthorpe Stakes (2024)
Caravaggio (2016) – Won the Commonwealth Cup the following year
Dawn Approach (2012) – Unbeaten as a juvenile and won the 2,000 Guineas in 2013.
Henrythenavigator (2007) – Won the following year’s 2,000 Guineas, St. James's Palace Stakes and Sussex Stakes.
Coventry Stakes Trends
While field size and inexperience make it look wide open, punters have generally had the edge in the race. That has changed a bit with the 150/1 shock of Nando Parrado in 2020 and Rashabar’s 80/1 win last year. But before that, in the 12 renewals from 2008 to 2019, horses sent off at 12/1 or bigger were acombined 1 winner from 155, 7 places.
15 of the last 17 winners won on their previous start. The two exceptions? Nando Parrado and Rashabar.
Another good angle: winners since 2008 were all 9/1 or shorter on their most recent start. Those returned 10/1+ were 0 from 50, with just 1 place.
Is there a draw bias? Not really. Winners have come from across the track. Stall 1 is 0 from 10, 3 places over the past 10 years, but stalls 2 and 3 have both produced winners so that's nothing to be concerned about. More generally over six furlongs on quick ground/big fields, there's a pretty even distribution of winners and placed horses.
Coventry Stakes Contenders
Here's a summary of the Coventry Stakes key contenders.
Postmodern – Overcame greenness to make a winning debut at Yarmouth last month. Visually impressive and a comfortable winner. He looks a good juvenile prospect and is effective on quick ground.
Military Code – The unbeaten son of Wootton Bassett made it 2-2 over 5f when winning a novice here 38 days ago. The step up to 6f should unlock further improvement.
No Albert Einstein, the early hot ante post favourite, means Aidan O’Brien relies on Gstaad and Warsaw. Gstaad came home well when making a winning debut at Navan (6f) last time. He beat a better fancied stablemate that day and is open to further improvement with racing. Warsaw has just had the one run, which was a winning one, also at Navan (5f), 10 days ago. Like Warsaw, he’s sure to improve but Ryan Moore has opted for Gstaad. Has Ryan chosen the right one? He usually does in this race but I wouldn’t be so sure; regardless, I am not convinced either will be in the winner’s enclosure.
Power Blue – Was only beaten ¾ of a length by Albert Einstein in a Group 3 at the Curragh last time. Given the latter was 6/4 for the Coventry when he became a non-runner, and the form looks strong, the 16/1 available at the time of writing makes him look overpriced.
American Gulf – A Class 4 novice winner at Windsor on debut and could hardly have been more impressive, a performance backed up by the clock. Oisin Murphy, who won on him at Windsor, stays in the saddle. There should be plenty more to come from him with racing. Trainer and owner had the third in 2022, and have had seven of 18 finish top five in Royal Ascot juvenile races since they scored in the 2013 Chesham with Berkshire.
Underwriter – Won well on debut on quick ground at Ayr. Retained jockey James Doyle rides favourite Postmodern, but Colin Keane is an excellent deputy. Archie Watson knows how to prepare one for the race having trained Bradsell (2022 winner) and lost out by a nose with Electrolyte 12 months ago. That was agony for me as I had tipped him here. Underwriter is open to as much improvement as any in the line-up and I’m expecting a big run from the colt.
Kolkata Knight – Looked professional and was backed when winning on debut at Hamilton. Open to further improvement and could outrun big odds for a trainer - Tom Dascombe - who has enjoyed previous Royal Ascot success, including a juvenile winner in the Queen Mary Stakes.
Coventry Stakes Verdict
Postmodern was an impressive debut winner and is firmly in the 'could be anything' category. That sentiment applies to Underwriter, in the same ownership, and he looks the better value of the pair given his trainer’s fine record in the race.
Neither of the Aidan O’Brien pair of Gstaad and Warsaw have got my pulse racing, but the trainer has won ten Coventry Stakes so we still need to respect his runners.
Military Code is unbeaten and improving and can get into the money, but I fancy there are better prospects in the line-up. Power Blue’s form with Albert Einstein stacks up well and he looks overpriced on that run. The market has seemingly ignored his form and he’s a tempting pick.
American Gulf impressed me when winning on debut and he’s another where we're guessing at how much more is under the bonnet. I like the fact that Osin Murphy stays in the saddle and he’s a playable price at 12/1.
Coventry Stakes Selection
American Gulf: 1pt win – 10/1
Underwriter: 1pt win – 12/1
3.40 THE KING CHARLES III STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Rory Delargy
With a big field declared for the King Charles III (formerly the King’s Stand), pace and draw are likely to be a decisive factor in the way the race develops. Traditionally that means that the higher numbers (stands side) are favoured, but the best of the pace appears to be in the middle, suggesting that the high-draw bias could be diluted to some extent. That said, I’d still rather be very high than very low.
Believing ran a stormer last year from stall 1, so while that is arguably the worst of the draw, she has proven she can overcome that obstacle to be competitive, and she looked at least as good as ever when winning the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan last time by ½ length from Win Carnelian and Regional. She was a little frustrating last season but seemed to get some bad luck with draws and is sure to be competitive for her new connections.
Asfoora is the defending champion, and the seven-year-old mare won at Morphettville in April before finishing seventh over 6f there last time. She showed last year that 5f on an English track suits her better than 6f in Australia, so merits respect in her bid to win this again for the Aussies. Her age would normally be a concern as few top-class mares retain their ability for as long as she has, but there are no obvious signs of deterioration. She got her eye in last year with a spin in the Temple Stakes before coming here, but she’s been in action recently enough to think that fitness won’t be a concern and she’s drawn between the more obvious pace angles in the race.
REGIONAL comes here after an excellent third, beaten little more than half a length in the Al Quoz Sprint won by Believing, and he has fared better with the draw than her this time. Berthed in 17 and with pace on his inside, he’s in a similar position to last year when he was beaten a length by Asfoora - the Australian mare exited 17 that day and Regional was close by in stall 15. Looking at the shape of the contest, I would argue that his draw is almost perfect, both in terms of historical perspective and where the pace is likely to be concentrated here: it looks to be immediately to the left, with Frost At Dawn in 15 as likely a leader as any, and those drawn 9 through 12 all having shown a tendency to push the pace.
He will hopefully have enough cover without having to fight for room, and he is ideally suited by 5f on quick ground as he showed when second last year. His form figures at this trip on good or faster turf are 21152 and the only unplaced effort came when beaten 2½ lengths in the 2023 Nunthorpe, his first run at Group 1 level.
The other one worthy of a mention is Night Raider, who blazed away in the Duke Of York last time but couldn’t last out the 6f trip there. He’s likely to be at his best on turf at this trip given a sound surface, and he’s the pick of those who will go forward from a single-figure draw. Stall 7 looks far from insurmountable and he can lead his group for some way, although he may just find a couple too strong at the finish.
Recommended: Back Regional e/w at 7/1
Exotics: Include Regional/Asfoora/Believing/Night Raider in exacta/trifecta permutations.
4.20 THE ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A small but well formed septet head to post for the one mile St James's Palace Stakes, typically a clash of the 2000 Guineas winners from across Europe. And so it is that we welcome said Classic scorers from the English, Irish and French versions, including a grudge rematch (of sorts) from Newmarket. Let's put some names to faces.
Cast your mind back - not far - to the opening Saturday of May and the 2000 Guineas. On that day, Field Of Gold was only 15/8 to fill one of the remaining empty spaces on the senior member of Team Gosden's lustrous palmarès. Godolphin's Ruling Court got first run and scampered clear under Buick; Field Of Gold, and Kieran Shoemark, were blindsided, flatfooted and, arguably - at least according to the trainer - outwitted.
The runner-up rattled home late, but too late, and was beaten a half length at the line. Too bad, said Johnny G, and it was the end for Shoemark. Harsh it might have been but in stepped Colin Keane, subsequently announced as first choice rider for Juddmonte, Field Of Gold's ownership entity, for the Curragh gig in the Irish 2000. Keane made no mistake - and nor should he in what was a slightly thinner looking affair, albeit that some of those inflated juvenile ratings were still suggesting otherwise.
This, then, can be seen as a decider, Ruling Court having snubbed his Derby invite at the eleventh hour as conditions went against him (and, perhaps, as connections realised that they were needlessly blotting a top Darley stallion prospect's copybook in a race that annually crowns Coolmore National Hunt daddy's). If Ruling Court had run at Epsom, there would surely not have been time to prepare him for this job a mere 11 days later. The Downs' loss is the Heath's gain.
As mentioned, this is no two horse race. There are 28 equine legs entered, and at least twelve of them are strong contenders; let's address the mystery four, which belong to Poules d'Essai des Poulains (or French 2000 Guineas, if you prefer) winner, Henri Matisse. To Juddmonte and Godolphin we add Coolmore's lads. Henri was a very good juvenile, running second in the G1 National Stakes before winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf; and he's trained on well, collecting a trial at Leopardstown en route to Paris and the Poulains.
A feature of this fella's performances is his ability to quicken. He was more than six lengths back at Del Mar before rattling home; and he ran two sub-11 second furlongs in the last three-eighths of the French Guineas.
The other four in the field should be discussed for all that my feeling is that a seven-runner race where they bet 25/1 bar three offers little of note outside win only wagering.
Rashabar showed a liking for this track when winning last year's Coventry. He proved that was no fluke by finishing very close seconds in two Group 1's later that season, and has again run well - although less eye-catchingly - in a brace of defeats this term. The latter, when five lengths behind Field Of Gold at the Curragh, gives him plenty to find; but this turning track might help him narrow the gap: he's looked like a doubtful stayer at a mile to my eye.
Officer's form heretofore is a stone below the top ones but the case for him is that he is less exposed and was certainly unlucky to some degree in the Irish 2000. Sent off only a 9/2 shot there, more was expected; but Moore has deserted and this looks a tough ask for the Ballydoyle second string. Their third dart is the maiden winner - at the fifth time of asking if you don't mind - First Wave. My assumption is that his is a pacemaking role.
That leaves a second Juddmonte runner, Windlord, beaten eight lengths in that Curragh Classic and surely also setting things up tempo-wise for his teammate.
Cast assembled, how does this act play out? It seems, on paper at least, to be run at a reasonable clip, with both Windlord and First Wave presumed hares. As always in such scenarios, though, there is the danger that the main trio mark each other and ignore the front end sizzle. That could lead to potential traffic problems, even in a small field (nothing more annoying as a punter!), and a dash for the line.
My suspicion is that the one most compromised in that situation would be odds-on jolly Field Of Gold, who has seemed to need a moment to get rolling, and he's opposable on that basis. If there is a genuine even tempo and he gets clear passage, he'll probably win; but I don't want to wager that where I'm getting less back in premium than I've shelled out in policy.
I've got a bit of a problem with Ruling Court as well. His mile form is top notch, as you'd expect for a Newmarket Guineas winner. But he was being trained to run a mile and a half at Epsom; that's a different regime, emphasising relaxing and stretching out over the greater speed requirements of top division miling. As with the favourite, I don't feel that's fully factored into his early quotes south of 3/1 for all that he's about as far from a shock winner as you'll get.
Which brings me to HENRI MATISSE. I'm not sure he's the best horse in the race - indeed, I think he's likely not (at this stage anyway) - but I do feel he's the most adaptable, and likely to handle the setup however it plays. And he has Ryan Moore steering. Nearly 5/1 looked very fair and 4/1 is still playable.
The rest don't really count but, for prayer mat punters, I could see Rashabarbeing closest to the front end nutjobs and making a bold dash for glory. It's far from 25/1 that he's on the lead at some point in the final quarter, before probably getting mown down by one or more of the trio atop the markets. Perhaps it's not Rash to include him 'underneath' in exactas and/or trifectas.
Suggestion: Try Henri Matisse at around 4/1 win only.
5.00 THE ASCOT STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)
Presented by Gavin Priestley
Ascot Stakes Trends
All of the last 18 winners had raced at least 11 times in their career (NH & Flat)
All of the last 17 winners carried 8-13 or more(before jockey claims)
All of the last 18 winners had raced 3 or fewer times that turf flat Season
All of the last 13 winners were rated 88-100
13 of the last 14 winners had run in the last 60 days (NH & Flat) – exception 2020 (covid)
13 of the last 15 renewals have been won by NH/Dual Trainers
17 of the last 18 winners had been rested at least 16 days (NH & Flat)
17 of the last 18 winners had their last run in a class 2-4 race (NH & Flat)
13 of the last 18 winners finished top 4 on their last run (NH & Flat)
11 of the last 15 winners were aged 5-7yo (exceptions 1x4yo, 2x8yo & 9yo)
Last 4yo winner before 2024 was in 2009
All 14 horses to have run on the All Weather last time were beaten. 2 placed.
Ascot Stakes Preview
A 0-100 handicap, a maximum field of 20 runners, and two and a half miles of stamina-sapping Berkshire turf that brings the National Hunt boys out to play at the Royal meeting. In fact 13 of the last 15 winners were trained by NH or dual purpose trainers. The flat boys and girls have had the odd winner here and there over the century, and have struck back recently having won two of the last three renewals, but on the whole it usually pays to stick with those trainers holding a jumps licence.
Despite the dominance of the NH horses it is interesting that only 8 of the last 28 winners had their last run over jumps with the other 20 having had their prep on the flat (what is more important to note is that all 25 runners since 1998 to have had their last run on the all-weather have been beaten). All 31 runners that last ran in a class 5 or 6 race and all 28 runners that last raced over 3 miles or further have been beaten also but age seems to be irrelevant with all age groups winning this century from 4-9yo (last year's 4yo winner was the first of that age group since 2009 but 7 of the 9 winners from 1998-2006 were 4yo).
The Irish challenge is strong this year with most of the top stables represented by at least one runner and, looking through the field, the eye is immediately drawn to the Willie Mullins-trained Triumph Hurdle winner PONIROS (East India Dock third) who sits right at the bottom of the weights and has William Buick on board (jockey has won 2 of the last 4 renewals). I sense this has been the plan with him ever since he rounded off his short jumps campaign with a second in the 4yo hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, and the master trainer has kept his horse fresh and penalty-free by not taking in the Chester Cup.
Mullins himself has won this race four times since 2012 and had three runners-up since 2019. He's particularly adept with horses in the bottom half of the handicap with a recent record of those carrying 9-06 or less at 10/1 or under of 2710314222. Poniros showed himself a top class juvenile hurdler but he also had some pretty decent flat handicap form last season including running second to Queens Gambit in the London Gold Cup at Newbury last May and being sent off favourite for the Cambridgeshire late in the season after finishing third in a big handicap at Ascot. He was a no show in the Cambridgeshire, looking like a horse needing a longer trip, and subsequently left Ralph Beckett to join Mullins.
I'm really confident of a big effort from this 4yo with the only caveat being that he probably won't want the ground too firm. I'm just hoping the Ascot watering policy will ensure they have taken the sting out of the turf and that enables him to run to his best.
As the ground could majorly affect the chances of my main bet I'm also going to have a small each way bet on the Harry Eustace 7yo DIVINE COMEDY who was runner up in this race last year under a 5lb claimer from just a 2lb lower mark. He began this season with a short head second to Al Qareem in a Listed race at Nottingham and the winner did that form no harm when running second to Illinois in the Ormonde Stakes and then winning a York Listed race from Absurde under a 5lb penalty. Divine Comedy followed up that run with a close third in the Sagaro Stakes before running down the field in the Chester Cup. Dropped 2lb since then he looks a massive price for a horse who has already shown he handles conditions and has begun this season in great form in a better class of race. His trainer has two winners, two seconds and a third from just eight Royal Ascot runners to date.
Ascot Stakes Selection
Try PONIROS at 11/2 and/or DIVINE COMEDY e/w at 25/1 or bigger
P.S. One final thing. Win, lose or draw it's always worth noting that if any of the runners from this race turn up again later in the week for the Queen Alexandra Stakes (final race on Saturday) then they deserve the utmost respect. In truth, not many try it these days but, since 1998, of the 17 to have attempted the double four have won, including two of the three Ascot Stakes winners that turned out quickly, and another four made the frame (at odds of up to 20/1). That's a place percentage of 47% and backing them all showed a Level Stakes Win Profit of +13.25pts thanks to winners at 11/4, 11/2, 6/1 and 12/1.
5.35 THE WOLFERTON STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
Formerly a handicap the Wolferton became a conditions race in 2018, although that has done little to improve its scrutability with three of the last four winners returning 14/1 or bigger. Roger Varian has two wins since 2020 and John (now with son Thady) Gosden has enjoyed five wins and five places from 20 entries. Both are represented this year.
Let's first look at the race setup. There is a draw bias in big fields on fast ground on the turning ten-furlong course. In the chart below, focused on PRB3, a smoothed metric showing the percentage of horses beaten by a stall and its immediate neighbours, we can see that the dark blue line - representing the race conditions (field size, going, all races) - is above the 50% lighter blue line up to around stall eight. In a field of 16, the implication is that it's harder to run well from wide.
Wolferton Stakes 2025: Draw and Run Style Bias
The lower half of that image is a heat map overlaying run style onto draw thirds. It tells us that early speed is often cheap speed, and that the optimal position is low to middle with a midfield sit in the early part of the race. Einstein is not required for us to also figure out that luck will also be needed by those adopting such a passage. Perhaps we're starting to see why big-priced winners are a feature of the Wolferton...
On Official Ratings just 4lb separates all bar one of the 16 runners, further attesting to the trickiness of the race. Still, with older horses and a big field, we can probably put a few profile elements into play. Below are the geegeez.co.uk Instant Expert grids for, first, placed performance, and then win only. There's a sea of green on the place, implying lots of these are well enough suited by conditions.
The grid is ordered by current odds at time of writing; and the well touted Sons And Lovers is one I'm personally fielding against. The form of his run behind Los Angeles has been trumpeted but it's worth noting he only had two behind him there - and one of those was a 100/1 shot. He's failed to make the frame in six races at the trip and in eight races in Pattern company so, while he might perform better from stall 1 and with Grandmaster Moore in the driver's seat, he just doesn't look particularly solid.
Enfjaar heads the betting parade. He has an ostensibly good draw in 2, is trained by that man Varian and this is his trip. Highly progressive in handicaps last term, including in the hurly burly of big fields, he's sure to step forward a bundle from his prep in the Brigadier Gerard. A player, no doubt, but skinny enough in the book.
Haatem has a tidy line of green on the place, and plenty of green and amber on the win view (see below). He has a blank for the trip because he's stepping up from mile races; his pedigree (Phoenix Of Spain out of a Cape Cross mare) offers hope that he'll stay without being conclusive. He was classy enough to run second to Rosallion in the Irish 2000 Guineas last season before taking the 7f Jersey Stakes at the Royal meeting, and is another that can be expected to bound forward from his seasonal bow. Still, Jersey Stakes hardly screams a horse wanting a mile and a quarter.
Richard Fahey sends Ecureuil Secret and bids to become the fourth Yorkshire-based trainer to win the Wolferton after Kevin Ryan, Tim Easterby and Mark Johnston. A four-year-old son of Wootton Bassett, he's been hyper consistent on both sides of the English Channel, and won an Epsom handicap by fully four lengths last time. He's a handy racer, making all that last day, and might just be a sitting duck in this deeper and classier contest.
Godolphin's Military Order looks better on the all-weather, or at least softer turf, and he's readily (and perhaps recklessly) overlooked; while the likes of King's Gambit and Liberty Lane both have it all to do from their wide posts. Each has form claims but getting a run might not be easy.
Let's revisit the heat map, this time with the runners, and their draws and recent run style preferences, overlaid. I've used some very high tech (!) coloured squares to highlight various things. First, those high numbers might have it to do. Second, low to middle looks good - but probably only if not too close to the pace (even allowing for the fact the race doesn't look swamped with early speed).
The Fahey horse will probably go on, and I'd imagine that Haatem - with his unproven stamina - might be ridden more patiently. Doha and Galen are others expected to be to the fore.
James Owen is winning everywhere just now but it will be a rabbit from a hat job if he can get the stayer Ambiente Friendly to win at this range. He could potentially also go forward in a bid to make it a truer test of stamina: if it's tactical he's surely got little chance.
Wathnan are an emerging force in ownership and they've targeted this meeting the past couple of seasons. Four horses carry their silks in this, including the aforementioned Haatem - the mount of retained rider James Doyle - and the wide-drawn King's Gambit. Their other pair are perhaps the more interesting ones. Haunted Dream is a big price and has done most of his recent racing in the Emirates, his last run there being a fourth of ten in the uber-valuable Neom Cup (£960,000 to the winner) in Saudi Arabia. Mikael Barzalona will probably ride him cold at the back of the field and have licence to thrill (or frustrate) with the route he plots, and he's kind of interesting from a throwaway dart perspective.
More obvious is Torito, representing that five-time winning and five-time placing axis of the Clarehaven Gosdens. He gets a plum draw, has an optimal running style and was third in the race last year when perhaps given too much to do. Colin Keane takes the reins so, while fitness must be taken on trust on this first start since last year's race, the fact he's here and is the sole Gosden entry in a race they've farmed offers plenty of hope.
It's a fascinating race but not an easy one to unravel - and I'm not inclined to play at short as a consequence. Enfjaar has an obvious chance but is commensurately well found in the markets; Haatem has stamina to prove and is too short in that context (though a steadily run race might aid his chance); and I have reservations about the next four in the market. Those reservations extend to Torito and to Haunted Dream, but a combination of the available odds and the perceived run of the race mean I'll split my stakes between them, and between the win and place pools.
Suggestion: Back either Toritoe/w at 11/1 and/or Haunted Dream e/w at 14/1 or bigger.
*
6.10 THE COPPER HORSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)
Presented by David Massey
Last year - 16 runners, first four drawn 14-16-12-13
2023 - 16 runners first four 7-10-3-13 (Vauban, would have won from Car Park 6, frankly)
2022 - 16 runners, first four 7-9-14-5
2021 - 15 runners, first four 9-4-3-1
French Master is the correct favourite for this. He looked in need of the run first time up (and still showed signs of greenness) at Newmarket and was still only beaten by El Cordobes (who was the paddock pick) and then last time out, despite constantly coming on and off the bridle and racing less than economically, was a neck too good for Story Horse. He's up 4lb for that but frankly was value for an awful lot more, and he looks a class stayer in the making. He’s still learning his trade and that, to a certain extent is the concern here - that he finds the occasion a bit too much at present - but I’ve little doubt he’ll be a lot higher than a 100-rated horse by the end of the season. On go the blinkers, which is hardly a surprise after Goodwood, either.
Caballo De Mar has been a favourite of mine for some time, a Trackside success story as he was flagged up early last year as one that would keep improving as he went up in trip. All he’s done is progress, and I loved the way he fought them off at Haydock last time, going to the front a full three furlongs out and just galloping his rivals into submission. He’s up another 4lb for that (which he needed in order to get a run here) but this extreme stamina test will suit him well and he might not have finished improving yet. He's a horse that simply tries hard and knows how to win, which is half the battle with stayers. Drawn in the middle in stall 9, which has thrown the winner up recently (and a place), he’ll do nicely for me here.
My Mate Mozzie was third in the race last year and is following a similar pattern en route as then: last season it was Cheltenham, this time around Aintree, as a prep, and on neither occasion did he cover himself in glory, so I’d not be worrying about that too much. Gavin Cromwell has enlisted the services of the excellent Warren Fentiman to take 5lb off his back and there are pros and cons regarding that (last five runnings have all been won by professional jockeys). He’s one to consider as an each-way poke with extra places, for all that he doesn’t actually get his head in front that often - just one win from eleven flat starts, but six places as well. He's certainly one to include in exactas and trifectas, as he’s more likely to be there at the business end of proceedings than a few of his opponents.
Willie Mullins has won this for the last two years and he runs Charlus, who is impossible to weigh up (for me, anyway). Three times a winner for Jean-Claude Rouget at trips up to 10f, he won a maiden hurdle for Mullins on his first start at Naas back in January before, perhaps unsurprisingly, finding the Triumph Hurdle a step too far on his only other hurdles start. His breeding sends out some mixed messages as to whether he’ll stay or not, although the dam being a half-sister to the very useful Drill Sergeant, who many will remember as a tough, staying sort for Mark Jonhston back in the day, gives plenty of hope; and the booking of Ryan Moore is obviously a huge plus. But look, those bookmaker chaps are already reaching for the tin hats, putting Charlus towards the head of the market, so it’s not as if he’s sneaking one in under the radar here. It may also be that stall 1 is not the best of draws for him either.
Suggestion: Back Caballo De Mar e/w at 6/1 with all the extra places
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/royalascot2017_gates.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-06-16 10:52:462025-08-25 13:09:41Royal Ascot 2025: Day One Preview, Tips
More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2025 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 17th to Sat 21st June 2025) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.
Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.
Royal Ascot Trends - Day One, Tuesday 17th June 2025
2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m ITV
22/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
20/23 – Previous winners over 1 mile
18/23 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
17/23 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
17/23 – Won by a 4 year-old
16/23 – Had already won a Group 1 race
16/23 - Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/23 – Ran in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time out
11/23 – Trained by either R Hannon (3), A P O’Brien (4) or owned by Godolphin (4)
11/23 – Had never run at Ascot before
10/23 – Won their previous race
10/23 – Favourites that were unplaced
9/23 – Winning favourites
Godolphin have won the race 8 times in total
Only 2 winners from Stall 1 in the last 17 runnings
14 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 4 or higher
21/23 – Won their previous race
21/23 – Had never raced at Ascot before
20/23 – Had between 1 and 2 previous career runs
18/23 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/23 - Foaled in either Feb or March
16/23 - Came from the top three in the betting
13/23 – Won over 6f before
11/23 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
8/23 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
7/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (10 in total)
4/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (4 of the last 14)
2/23 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/23 - Won by a Jan foal
14 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
9 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 9-19 (inc)
3.40 - King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f ITV
Recent King Charles III Stakes Winners
Known as King's Stand Stakes prior to 2024
2024 – Asfoora (5/1)
2023 – Bradsell (14/1)
2022 – Nature Strip (9/4)
2021 – Oxted (4/1)
2020 – Battaash (5/6 fav)
2019 – Blue Point (5/2)
2018 – Blue Point (6/1)
2017 – Lady Aurelia (7/2)
2016 – Profitable (4/1)
2015 – Goldream (20/1)
2014 – Sole Power (5/1)
2013 – Sole Power (8/1)
2012 - Little Bridge (12/1)
2011 - Prohibit (7/1)
2010 - Equiano (9/2)
2009 - Scenic Blast (11/4 fav)
2008 - Equiano (22/1)
2007 - Miss Andretti (3/1 fav)
2006 - Takeover Target (7/1)
2005 - Chineur (7/1)
2004 - The Tatling (8/1)
2003 – Choisir (25/1)
King Charles III Stakes Trends
22/23 – Aged 7 or younger
21/23 – Had won a Group race before
19/23 – Aged 4 or older
19/23 – Had won over 5f before
17/23 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/23 – Finished first or second last time out
14/23 – Had run at Ascot before (9 had won at the track)
13/23 – Favourites placed
13/23 – Won by a non-UK based trained horse
6/23 – Ran at either Flemington (3) or Chantilly (3) last time out
7/23 – Favourites that finished third
5/23 – Won by an Australian-trained horse
4/23 – Winning favourites
4/23 – 3 Year-old winners
A horse from stalls 9, 11 & 14 has been placed in 14 of the last 17 runnings
3 of the last 7 winners stall 10
Charlie Appleby has won 2 of the last 8
Robert Cowell has won 2 of the last 14
10 of the last 21 won by a non-UK trained horse
23/23 - Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
20/23 – Had won over a mile before
19/23 – Favourites that were placed
18/23 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
18/23– Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
16/23 – Previous Group 1 winners
16/23 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
14/23 – Won their previous race
13/23 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
12/23 – Ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh) last time out (9 won it)
10/23 – Irish-trained winners
7/23 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (9 total)
7/23 – Had run at Ascot before
Just 4 winners from stall 1 or 2 in the last 17 runnings
6 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 4 or 5
3 of the last 11 winners ridden by Ryan Moore
Trainer Richard Hannon has won 2 of the last 8
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 8
20/23 – Carried 8-13 or more
17/23 – Had at least 1 previous run on the flat that season
16/23 – Won by a stable better known for their NH runners
16/23 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
13/23 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
13/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/23 – Won their previous race
4/23 – Trained by Willie Mullins (4 of the last 13)
3/23 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 13)
3/23 – Winning favourites
2/23 – Trained by Ian Williams
William Buick has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners
2 of the last 5 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
Just two winner (or placed) horse from stall 1 placed in the last 17 runnings
17/22 – Had between 1 and 3 runs already that season
16/22 – Finished unplaced last time out
16/22 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
15/22 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
13/22 – Aged 4 years-old
13/22 – Had run at Ascot before
11/22 – Unplaced favourites
11/22 – Returned a double-figure price
7/22 – Ran at either York (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
5/22 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of last 14)
4/22 – Trained at Kremlin House Stables (Roger Varian/M Jarvis)
3/22 – Winning favourites
14 of the last 19 winners returned 7/1 or bigger
4 of the last 9 winners came from stall 5
8 of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
6.15 - Copper Horse Handicap (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4
Just the 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Carried 9-1 or more
5/5 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-8
5/5 – Aged between 4-6 (3 winners aged 6)
2/5 – Winning favourite
Trainer Willie Mullins won this race in 2023 and 2024
Trainer David O’Meara won this race in 2022
Trainer John Gosden won this race in 2021
Trainer Roger Varian won this race in 2020
Belloccio won the race in 2024
================================================
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/whodareswins_RoyalAscot2020.jpg319830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2025-06-15 02:00:352025-06-18 07:05:132025 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day One (Tues 17th June)
There are three festivals a year I get really excited about, writes Dave Renham. The Cheltenham Festival and Glorious Goodwood are two; and the third, which is soon to be upon us, is of course Royal Ascot. Around this time last year I looked in detail at the big 1-mile handicaps at the meeting - you can catch up with that piece here. This year I am concentrating on the Group 1 races.
Introduction
There are eight Group 1s run at the Royal meeting and they are as follows:
As would be expected, there is a good mix of different race distances and conditions although there is only one Group 1 race at a distance beyond 1m 2f, the Gold Cup.
In this article I am looking back on the last ten years of these Group 1 contests, trying to find any snippets that may help us when tackling the races this year. Profit and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission.
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Market Rank
Let me start by examining the market. I have ranked the runners based on BSP, which is the most accurate way of doing it. Further, it eliminates almost all of the ‘joint’ market positions.
These races have definitely been market-friendly with the top three betting positions each producing a blind profit. Those fourth in the Betfair betting lists have performed poorly but due to the modest sample we can perhaps assume this is an anomaly. Regardless, it seems that the top three in the betting are the ones to concentrate on.
Group 1 Favourites at Royal Ascot
Narrowing in on favourites, below are the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) figures for each individual race to help give a better overview of favourite performance in specific races. For the record the average PRB figures for favourites across the eight races combined stands at 0.76.
There has been quite a variance with Gold Cup favourites performing best, and by some margin. Their actual performance in the Gold Cup has been as follows:
During the ten year study period the Gold Cup favourite secured five wins, two seconds, a third and two fourths, so no BSP jolly has completely bombed out.
Royal Ascot Group 1s: Top 3 Market Ranks
If we undertake the same type of PRB analysis across the top three in the betting, the graph generally becomes more even:
The St James’s Palace has the highest figure now with the Gold Cup a close second. Nine of the ten winners of the St James’s Palace came from the top three in the betting (four favourites, three second favs, two third favs).
Conversely, of all the races the Commonwealth Cup has seen fancied runners struggle the most. Favourites have won three of the last ten Commonwealth Cup renewals, but there were no wins for second favourites (two wins for third favs). Quite a few horses that were in the top three of the betting have bombed out with 10 of the 30 failing to finish in the top ten, three of them being favourites.
It should be noted that the four winning Commonwealth Cup favourites in the past decade more than paid for the other six losing jollies, returning a profit of 2.55 units at BSP.
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Position
The second area I want to look at is recent performance and specifically LTO finishing position. Here is a breakdown of performance by last day finishing position (I have grouped all horses together that finished fifth or worse LTO):
The BSP profit for those that finished third LTO has been totalled skewed by the 140.0 BSP winner Khaadem. LTO winners do look the group to concentrate on with over half of the 80 winners having also won on their most recent start. If we combine LTO winners with a position in the top three in the betting, then we see some excellent results: 36 winners from 115 runners (SR 31.13%) for a profit of £30.50 (ROI +26.5%); A/E 1.14.
It is also worth keeping an eye out for LTO winners that won by at least a length in the race prior to Ascot. These runners have scored 18.9% of the time (30 wins from 159) for a profit of £29.13 (ROI +18.3%).
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Race Class
Onto looking at the class of race LTO. Here are the splits:
As we would expect horses that ran in Group 1 company last time have won most often. Those that raced in Group 3 or Listed Class LTO have been profitable, but both have been skewed by very big priced winners going in. Still, Royal Ascot is a meeting where horses fairly consistently win at massive odds.
LTO winners that contested a Group 1 race have actually offered poor value despite a strike rate of close to 30%. The 51 qualifiers lost over 28p in the £ if backing them to repeat the Group 1 win at Royal Ascot.
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Days Since Last Run (DSLR)
It is time to see whether the timing of the last run before Royal Ascot makes a difference. It should be noted this data does not include French, American or Australian runners as I do not have facility to check those. However, it still applies to over 90% of Ascot runners. Here are my findings:
As the table shows, I have included 50 to 240 days as a single group simply because there are very few runners within that grouping, and their performance has been poor. I wanted to help highlight the difference between that group and the group absent 241+ days (or eight months-plus).
The biggest cohort had a run between 22 and 35 days prior to Ascot and their results have been positive given the overall context. To give a broader overview let me share the PRB figures for each ‘days off track’ grouping:
These figures correlate with the win strike rates. The figures for 22 to 35 days and 241 days+ are clearly best. Finally in this section, below is the ten-year performance in Royal Ascot Group 1s of horses from the top three in the betting by days since last run:
Again, this points to the same two groups (22 to 35 days; 241+ days) as the areas in which to focus from a positive perspective. They would have offered punters very good value over the past ten years.
Royal Ascot Group 1 Trainers
The final area I will consider is that of trainers although it should be noted that data is limited. There are a handful of trainers who have saddled at least 20 runners in Royal Ascot Group 1s in the last ten years, and they are shown in the following table:
It is important not to take these figures (especially big profit lines) too literally due to the sample sizes. It is probably more prudent to look at the PRB values to give a better general indication of how each trainer's horses have run:
William Haggas, despite having just one winner from 24, has an excellent PRB figure so it looks like he has been somewhat unlucky in recent years. He has endured five second places, as well as four thirds and five fourths. Haggas looks a trainer that may offer some placepot/ each way value at the very least next week.
By contrast, Roger Varian’s runners have really struggled although a good proportion of his charges have been bigger prices. Indeed, Charyn, in last year's Queen Anne Stakes is Varian's sole Royal Ascot G1 winner to date. There are sure to be more in future but his seem a little over-bet.
Other trainer titbits to share include the fact that Aidan O’Brien's 13 Group 1 winners in the past decade have all been ridden by Ryan Moore (from 61 rides). All other jockeys riding for O'Brien are a combined 0 from 43 since 2015, although again most of these runners were outsiders. Sticking with O’Brien it seems best to concentrate on those starting favourite or second favourite. They have combined to produce 12 of his 13 winners (from 34 qualifiers) returning a small 2p in the £. Finally, albeit from a very small sample, the Gosden stable has had four winners and four placed runners from just 13 runners aged four.
Summary
The Group 1 races at Royal Ascot are the races that owners, trainers and jockeys covet the most, although any win at the Royal meeting is huge.
In terms of the Group 1s, the most fancied runners - those in the top three in the betting - have fared much the best. Don’t be put off by horses having their first run in more than eight months (241+ days) and we might also consider a break of 22 to 35 days (three to five weeks) as more of a positive than a negative.
A last day win is preferable to other finishing positions and a last time out win coupled with a top three position in the betting market has been a very strong positive. From the training ranks, William Haggas appears to have been quite unlucky in the past decade and certainly I’ll be popping a few of his runners in my placepots at the very least. Aidan O’ Brien runners are worth noting if starting in the top two of the betting and particularly when ridden by Ryan Moore.
Wishing you the best of luck with your Royal Ascot Group 1 wagers.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Kyprios_MojoStar_Stradivarius_GoldCup_Ascot2022.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2025-06-09 12:35:212025-06-09 12:35:21Royal Ascot 2025: Analysing The Group 1 Races
With the 2025 Cheltenham Festival now fading out of sight in the rear view mirror, and with Aintree and, gasp, the flat season emerging on the horizon, now is a perfect moment to have a quick think about the 2026 Cheltenham ante post markets.
There's obviously any amount of unpredictability to be visited on the scene in the ensuing 360-odd days but that's accounted for at least to some degree in the prices, all of which affords a small swing at a big payoff. I won't be tying up much capital in this venture, but it's a bit of fun and could give us plenty of highs and lows as the narrative plays out through Aintree, Punchestown and then the Autumn, Winter and Spring of 2025/6.
First things first: I'm not interested in the novice hurdle races. None of the last three Supreme winners had any degree of public profile a year prior to their successes, and the hokey cokey between Baring Bingham and Albert Bartlett is a targets guessing game nobody can win. The novice chases offer slightly more hope but even there we've the challenge of knowing which are natural hedge hoppers and which will stay over hurdles.
Best then to focus on the open championship events: the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and Gold Cup. Here's goes (next to) nothing...
Champion Hurdle 2026
This looks likely to be a very open division next season. Constitution Hill has not come back to his old form, though he has kept on winning - barring that tumble last week. He'll only be nine next year and has few miles on the clock for various reasons; but he's been famously tough to get right and is readily opposed in the context of a project like this.
State Man is the same age as Connie and would have been an unambiguous winner this year but for that last flight brain fart from Townend (just my opinion). That performance was a surprise in one way but not in another. After all, he was the reigning champ in spite of a middling season; and, once Constitution Hill had exited he had only Brighterdaysahead to beat on the form book. Her position in the market owed everything to trainer Gordon Elliott's high regard and to a single thirty length win that was very, very hard to interpret literally. She'll surely go to the Mares' Hurdle, or chasing, next season.
Golden Ace was the beneficiary of the champ's late departure. I loved the story, but I don't think for a second she'll be good enough to defend her crown. So we're looking for a new champion, on my reading anyway.
The top four in the current ante post lists are Con Hill, The New Lion, Lossiemouth and Kopek Des Bordes. Let's first deal with Lossiemouth. To my eye, she wants at least two and a half miles and if connections are seeking a championship she should be going up, not down, in trip. We'll get to that in due course. She was outpaced at Kempton behind Constitution Hill, and she fluffed her lines for no credible reason when going hoof to hoof with State Man. At a tempo that suited far better, in the 2m4f Mares' Hurdle, she waltzed away from a smart mare in Jade De Grugy without in any way suggesting her stamina bottom had been reached.
The New Lion has to be in the argument after what was an impressive win in the Turners (Baring Bingham). That's not been as good a trial for the Champion Hurdle as some have made out, the only recent winner to double up in the Champion in recent times being Faugheen in 2014/15. Another novice, Kopek Des Bordes, is as short as 4/1 and as long as 10/1 to win next year's Champion Hurdle, perhaps summing up the challenges of identifying race plans. The aforementioned C Hill did the Supreme/Champion Hurdle double in 2022/23 and this lad looks highly promising... if he stays hurdling.
I'm not at all convinced by Triumph winner Poniros at this stage, though he may yet develop into a five-year-old Champion Hurdler; but one Festival winner that is worth a second look in this market is Kargese. Her form has been under-rated - she's a dual Grade 1 scorer and hasn't been out of the first two in ten runs - in spite of a tendency to over-race. She easily won the County Hurdle off a mark of 141, the exact same County mark from which State Man prefaced his Champion Hurdle score a year later. True, he had more of a 'dark horse' profile but Kargese's form is really, really good (I noted in my County Hurdle preview how I felt last year's juveniles generally, and her in particular, had perhaps been underrated).
She'll have to improve a stone and more from an official mark of around 145 and she might be kept to mares' only races and aimed at the Mares' Hurdle. In her case, as one who tends to pull quite a bit, a shorter faster test might be just the ticket. She'd get the 7lb mares' allowance if running in the Champion Hurdle and would be bidding to emulate Golden Ace, Honeysuckle, Epatante and Annie Power who between them won five of the last ten Champion Hurdles. Importantly, she's a price - 33/1 - for a throwaway dart.
Suggestions: Many of these have some sort of chance if lining up a year from now. But, in a number of cases - notably Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead, Lossiemouth, and perhaps Kopek Des Bordes - they are either fragile or have other potential routes. State Man will be a year older and the race fell in his lap this year, before he declined the opportunity. Poniros might be more credible if winning at Punchestown but I'm not quite subscribing to him yet; and Golden Ace was a glorious advertisement for buying a lottery ticket, but should be lottery odds to do it again.
That leaves me with The New Lion and, more tentatively, Kargese.
Back The New Lion at 7/1 win only. For tiny stakes, try Kargese at 33/1 win only.
Queen Mother Champion Chase 2026
The Champion Chase is a favourite's graveyard, seven odds-on shots getting turned over in the past decade. And yet the game remains to try to get a horse to the race at a shorter - ideally, much shorter - price than was taken.
An obvious starting point is this year's winner, Marine Nationale, who was winning the argument with Quilixios when that one came down at the last, eventually scoring by a slightly misleading 18 lengths. Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort and he'll be following the precedent of both Altior and Energumene in trying double up aged nine next season. If he gets to the gig, he'll have leading claims.
Jonbon would have been much closer if he'd not rearranged the furniture in the back straight. But would he have beaten the winner? Possibly, but not definitely. In any case, he'll be ten next year and that list of excuses for getting beaten at Cheltenham is growing.
The absent and much-missed Sir Gino is 7/2 favourite in ante post lists. Given that, as far as I'm aware, he only came out of an equine hospital on Monday, he wouldn't be a huge pile shorter than 7/2 to race again, let alone win a Festival Grade 1. I really, really hope he does get back, and that he retains his ability; but his quote in this market is ludicrous. He's half the price of the demonstrably alive and kicking winner from last week!
Back in the real world, there's a strong argument to be made that Majborough would have won the Arkle but for bungling two out - you've got to jump 'em! - and that, therefore, 8/1 about his Champion Chase chance is a sliver of value. Sizing Europe did the Arkle/Queen Mother double in 2010/11 and, since then, so too have Sprinter Sacre and Altior. Of course, Maj would not be reprising those multi-year heroics because he didn't complete the first part of the job; but the Arkle remains a rock solid Champion Chase trial.
Gaelic Warrior has a big squiggle against him though it surprised me to discover he's still only seven, so will be eight next year. Age won't stop him, then, but he's not an ante post conveyance by any measure of the phrase. If Fact To File doesn't go to the Gold Cup - presumably after winning the King George - then the game's up: a fit FTF is unlikely to go shorter than a repeat Ryanair tilt, so I can't have him on my mind for the two mile championship.
Ballyburn is Pirandello's idea of a character in search of an author. I'm sure he knows the part he was born to play, but seemingly none charged with his care do. That's grossly unfair, of course, and I merely mean that there's a lack of clarity around where best to crystalise Ballyburn's undeniable ability. I feel it might be over hurdles and over further. But, like those closer to the decision making than me, I don't really know (though I'm pretty sure it's not two miles and fences).
Il Est Francais is a big no here, even though they might try. He's very in and out, and a repeat attempt at a King George - which so nearly paid off - ought to be on the cards. That would be a weird warm up for a Champion Chase.
Although he's not quite for me, Solness has been somewhat discarded in this market. He won two Grade 1's in the run up to Cheltenham and, with a more measured campaign next season, could definitely emerge as a contender. I get the impression his rise this term took connections somewhat by surprise leaving him possibly a tad over-cooked when Cheltenham came around. He'll only be eight next March and he should not be 40/1.
At the other end of the pace spectrum is Jango Baie. He got what for me was the ride of the meeting from Nico de Boinville in winning the Arkle. As a strong stayer who probably wants 2m4f, the plan at the outset was to lead and set a searching gallop. But when a couple of others wanted to do that, Nico reined his lad in and let them have at it in front of him. He hunted around off the pace until after the second last and then came with one withering run to mow down the flagging pugilists up top. I'm by no means his biggest fan, but this was a deliberate and masterful piece of steering from NdB.
Anyway, the point is that the Champ Chase can be run in similar fashion and that would allow a reprisal of this performance for Jango Baie were he to be invited here rather than the more obvious Ryanair. He would actually be bidding for the Arkle/Champion Chase double!
Suggestions: Sir Gino may rise to the top of this tree but he has much further to climb than most in order to achieve that. Apart from wagering, I seriously hope he does. I thought he might have won the Champion Hurdle this year but, as we know, connections opted for a different path. He makes a market that is 7/1 bar him in a race which rarely gets more than eight or nine runners. If you can get one to the start line, then, you have half (or, more correctly, a third of) a chance of hitting the frame.
This is pretty simple for me in terms of long range ante post. Marine Nationale must be on the ticket, and so must Majborough. Tiny tickles at huge prices on Solness and Jango Baie are not without merit.
Back Marine Nationale at 7/1 win only. Back Majborough at 8/1 win only.
Maybe limp in with either or both of 33/1 Jango Baie and/or 40/1 Solness.
Stayers' Hurdle 2026
I've put 6/1 Teahupoo (soft ground), 12/1 Ballyburn (in case he reverts to hurdles) and 20/1 Lossiemouth (this is the race for her in 2026, I just need to persuade Willie!) in some very speculative trebles but couldn't sensibly recommend you do likewise. All of the caveats very much emptored.
Gold Cup 2026
Back on a punting footing which could be described as at least relatively terra firma next to the Stayers' Hurdle market, the 2026 Gold Cup is unlikely to suddenly deliver a swathe of new candidates for primacy.
Inothewayurthinkin was a clear and unambiguous winner last week, and even if the wonderful Galopin Des Champs was a touch under par (which I certainly feel he was), the young buck holds all the cards going into next season. Galopin will be eligible for veterans' races from January 2026, as will third placed Gentlemansgame, fifth placed The Real Whacker and seventh placed Banbridge. Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor already have their bus passes, as it were.
Monty's Star will be nine and could not be fully discounted given a very wet Festival Friday, but his form is not as good as Inothewayurthinkin and he doesn't have the upside potential either. Looking at the Gold Cup winner's form profile this season, there's a case to be made for him drifting in price between now and next March - he was beaten by diminishing margins in each of his three pre-Cheltenham races this term - and that tempers ante post enthusiasm a little at this stage. On the other hand, were those defeats with a workable Grand National mark in mind?
Also in the green and gold is the Ryanair winner, Fact To File. Last year's Broadway (RSA as was) Novices' Chase winner at three miles was pointed at the shorter G1 last week, and fair bolted up in that assignment. Indeed, it was probably - or at least arguably - the performance of the meeting. I'm not totally convinced he'll last an extra six furlongs in the Gold Cup, but there cannot be another race to entertain him in at this stage.
Galopin is highly unlikely to be able to get a third Gold Cup aged ten and 8/1 is a sucker price, I'm afraid. Fastorslow has tended to be slow when overmatched; Grey Dawning was pulled up in the King George and ducked Cheltenham for pot hunting at Kelso - that doesn't put him in the Gold Cup picture; Majborough would be very doubtful to go this far aged six; and the rest are going to need to find a stone from somewhere which, while not impossible - I've suggested Kargese can maybe do that in the Tuesday feature - feels unlikely in their, typically more exposed, cases.
Suggestions: Few things in life are as simple as first meets the eye, so there's an above average chance I'm not giving this enough consideration. With that said, it looks an open and shut case for the two green and gold Festival winners in open Grade 1 chases last week. Yes, they're short (about 9/4 dutched), but if they stay healthy (a reasonably sized 'if', granted) they are head and shoulders above what we know of the others, the venerable veteran dual champ aside.
Back Fact To File at 6/1 win only.
Hold fire on Inothewayurthinkin at 5/1 as he could drift after a defeat early next season. That would be the time to bet him, at nearer 10/1. [Galopin went out to 6/1 after getting beaten in the John Durkan first time up last season]
Summary
It's all a bit of fun this far out - and indeed much closer to the day - so if you feel like following me in, keep it small and manageable is my advice. If one of them wins, it'll pretty much pay for the rest losing. And, because I love a bit of mugginess, I've permed a few of them in wildly ambitious trebles: well, faint heart never won fair maiden and all that.
At the very least, a bet like this gives us something to look forward to, and to shout about, in the year-long buildup to the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. That in itself is worth a small cheer!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2.79393753-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-18 17:33:112025-03-18 17:33:11Taking a Flyer on the 2026 Cheltenham Festival
And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.
Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...
1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Triumph Hurdle changed complexion hugely with the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005. The average field size in the previous decade was 26. In the Fred Winter era that average has shrunk to 16, and just 13 in the last decade. All races evolve so we need to be careful when using trends that include renewals from a long time ago - for the Triumph it is often best to calculate trends starting in 2005. Incredibly, this year there are 18 slated to face the starter.
Possibly the biggest under-bet factor in juvenile hurdles more generally is that, being so young, these horses often develop more during the season than older novices – and they develop at different times. It’s not uncommon for juveniles to go backwards as they develop physically. With so many more of the juveniles now being jumps-bred rather than having had a long career on the flat nowadays I think that’s a factor that’s likely to keep increasing in importance.
It is therefore a division to be particularly open-minded about whether form will be repeated. In the Triumph that question is especially impacted by the quality of the trials. Britain has four Grade 2 and five Listed trials for the Triumph. These races often lack depth: this century all nine Triumph winners that contested a British Grade 2, won that Grade 2.
In Ireland it’s a different story. The programme is designed to funnel the best horses together and typically a lot run in the Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival. Since it became a Grade 1 in 2010, it’s produced nine Triumph winners but only three were doing the double. Put another way, backing Grade 1 Spring winners in the Triumph would have lost you 30% of your betting bank, whereas backing the losers would have made you a 106% profit.
The Spring is run in early February and, given the ‘development factor’ I outlined above, another trend is to focus on recent Graded form more widely. You might think that Graded form (including Grade 1 winning form) in the novice and juvenile Grade 1s at the Festival would be so obvious as to be over-bet. But that’s often not the case – for example, if since 2005 in the Triumph you’d backed every unbeaten hurdler that had won a Graded hurdle, you’d have made a +23 (79% ROI) profit.
However, if you restricted that to unbeaten hurdlers who had won a Graded hurdle since the turn of the year the record improves to +28 (117% ROI) and would have identified the same eight winners.
East India Dock won the Grade 2 Finesse in great style in January. He likes a sound surface, is proven at the track and on form he arguably has enough in hand to suggest he should be odds-on here.
Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners
Triumph Hurdle Pace Map
A big field and should be lots of pace on. East India Dock tends to lead in his races but I don't think he needs to. Should track and get first run. Obviously, Willie has plenty of tactical options with his ELEVEN runners!
Triumph Hurdle Selection
East India Dock should be shorter on form, some of the horses around him owe their price more to reputation than track performances.
Suggestion: Back East India Dock to win at 2/1 or bigger.
Matt's Tix Pix: East India Dock on A, a couple of alternates on B
The formerly indecipherable County Hurdle has been rendered a coin flip between Messrs Mullins, W., and Skelton, D. in recent times. Indeed, in a race typically with 20+ runners, it's faintly bonkers that they've gobbled up nine of the most recent ten renewals. Willie also won it in 2010 and 2011 for good measure.
True, they tend to come mob-handed, but their winners have been 12/1, 33/1, 11/4, 11/2, 12/1, 33/1, 20/1, 8/1 and 25/1.
Five- and six-year-olds - in other words, seriously unexposed horses - have generally been the winning ticket, though they've also saddled three eight-year-old winners between them, at odds of 33/1, 12/1 and 20/1. So if not a young horse then demand a price, maybe.
Two of those older winners were very high class, and rated accordingly (146 and 158) while the younger horses - indeed all other winners bar Belfast Banter (129) since 2009 - were rated 134 to 141; and if you ignore subsequent Champion Hurdle winner State Man (extremely unlucky not to double up on Tuesday), that band narrows to 134-139. A feature of this race is that all winners since 2009 were patiently ridden, either in midfield or held up.
Of the Mullins gang this time, Daddy Long Legs is rated too high for a young horse, and Absurde has shown his hand too much, surely. But the other pair, Ethical Diamond and Kargese, are of clear interest. The former was five lengths behind the latter in last year's Spring Juvenile at DRF before completely failing to fire on heavy at Cheltenham next time. This season, after a promising effort on the flat at Royal Ascot, he ran down the field in a handicap at Christmas before bolting up in a very ordinary maiden hurdle. None of the 16 that followed him home there and ran since has won, from 19 collective attempts; and Ethical Diamond has been raised 12lb from his pre-race Irish mark (the Irish handicapper raised him only 6lb). He'll probably appreciate better ground but looks fairly harshly weighted all things considered, even if he is open to improvement.
Kargese is probably Willie's most obvious chance. She's never been out of the first two in nine career starts, four of them Grade 1's, two of them winning Grade 1's. Her form when within a length of Take No Chances has been well advertised by that one running third in the Mares' Hurdle, and it is possible the handicapper has underrated the ability of last year's juveniles. She has 141, the same mark as State Man won from and, while she is unlikely to be of his calibre, she may be a fair bit better than she's currently rated. She's versatile in terms of run style and will surely be waited with and, though it's a tough ask for a mare, Spirit Leader won back in 2003 from just a smallish number to have tried.
And what about Team Dan? Well it's only Valgrand for him, one shot wonder this year. This lad was impressive when racking up a hat-trick in early season, none more so than in a Grade 2 on good ground here. He was put in his place by Potters Charm when stepped up in trip, again around here, next time and has since got a five pound rebate from the handicapper for two non-descript efforts. He arrives here as a six-year-old novice on a perch of 134 and has been rested 77 days since, three of Skelton's four wins being rested 80, 97 and 124 days. Too easy? Maybe, maybe not.
With such a duopoly in the past decade, it's difficult to try to make a case for another though there are obviously plenty of respected operators in what is a smaller than usual field - just 16 declared. Principle among those shrewdies could be Joseph O'Brien who bids to win at back to back Festivals with Lark In The Morning, the 2024 Fred Winter champ. He's run acceptably twice since then, once for the UK handicapper, but still gets 2lb more weight than he had in that Haydock sighter. It's possible his best form is on softer turf than it's likely to be, but there's little doubt he'll have been optimally prepared.
County Hurdle Recent Winners
County Hurdle Pace Map
A smaller field this year and no obvious front runner. I doubt it'll be a tactical affair but it's difficult to call who'll make the pace.
County Hurdle Selection
I'm keeping this simple. I think Kargese is plenty short enough for all that I love her chance (and backed her ante post at bigger), so I'll suggest Valgrand to 'return to form'. Ethical Diamond is punitively handicapped but may still make the frame.
This race has only been run for four years so there are no long term past trends to dig into. Instead, I have looked at the last ten years of mares only Class 1 chases between 2m3f and 2m6f. There have been 46 such races of which 35 have been won by either the favourite or the second favourite. This suggests that this type of race tends not to have much strength in depth, and the four winners of this particular Festival race have all been 3/1 or shorter.
Another key trend to note in these races is that last time out (LTO) winners outperform those horses who didn’t win last time. LTO winners have won 25 races from 106 (23.6%) compared with 21 from 177 (11.9%) for those that didn’t win last time. There is a big differential between the placed results, too, with LTO winners placing 45% of the time, while LTO non-winners are down at 25%.
Horses that have previously won a Graded or Listed event hit a 24% strike rate compared with a 12% strike rate for those that have not.
Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have scored more than twice as often as those that were third or higher in the market. Not only that they have been better value with an A/E index of 0.96 compared to 0.81.
This year nine runners go to post with four rated over 150 and it will be a massive surprise if something rated lower wins this. Let’s look at the four main protagonists.
Willie Mullins has had two wins and two seconds in this race, and he runs two here which are first and second in the betting. Firstly, he has Dinoblue, runner up in the race last year. In that 2024 renewal jockey Mark Walsh may have been taken by surprise when the winner, Limerick Lace, kicked turning in and that could have cost her the race. Walsh will be keen not to allow any horse too much rope turning in this time around. A positive is that she ticks all the boxes from the trends shared above. A concern is that she generally races over 2 miles or 2 miles 1 furlong and, despite going close last year, this trip might be right on her limit stamina wise. She is likely to go off a short-priced favourite.
The Mullins second string is Allegorie De Vassy. She was fourth in this last year, second in 2023 and those were her only two runs at the track. Despite those two decent efforts she tends to jump out to her right, and I think that has cost her in the past here. She does arrive at Cheltenham in good form having finished second at Naas last time getting to within a quarter of a length of Dinoblue. That was over a shorter two-mile trip.
Limerick Lace, from the Gavin Cromwell stable, comes here as defending champion, but she has been beaten a total of 101 lengths in her last two starts. If it rains, her chances improve considerably but with the likely going good to soft I am happy to take her on at her current price.
Cromwell also runs Brides Hill. She has been turned over when odds on favourite in her last two runs which tempers enthusiasm a little. However, according to the trainer this has always been her target, and she should prefer the ground more than her stablemate. Her price reflects her recent form, but at her best she would be bang there
Mares' Chase Recent Winners
*New race in 2021
Mares' Chase Pace Map
Willie again holds the cards with both of his pair likely to be prominent in what should be an even paced tempo.
Mares' Chase Selection
Dinoblue is the most likely winner but with her trading around Evens in a nine-runner field is tight. For me this looks a race to tackle each way with Brides Hill.
3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Ah, the Spuds Race. There's a knack to punting this race, which is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season. With only one winner returned a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013, we're going to be taking a swing. Naturally, such an approach can be feast or famine, so the faint-hearted might favour a different tack. Me? At this stage (Wednesday after racing), I'm in a massive hole on the week and don't plan to smash my way free, so it's the only course of action. OK, to the profile.
We're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. Stellar Story last year was an archetypal winner so let's look at his form profile going into that race and see if we can't reverse engineer it:
The form image shows most recent (Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham) at the top, oldest at the bottom. Starting at the bottom, we can see he was a good bumper horse - good enough to win two of his three in that sphere. We can also see he'd got plenty of experience, adding four hurdle starts prior to the Festival to that trio of NH Flat spins. Next, note how he won a big field maiden hurdle before running well in defeat in small field Graded races, including at Grade 1 level at the Dublin Racing Festival. Before any of those Rules runs, he'd won an Irish point to point.
Stellar Story was available at 33/1 when I backed him a couple of weeks before his Spuds win, and he was sent off at the same price on the day. He was the 11th choice of the betting public!
Here's a horse running in the race this year:
He, too, won an Irish point prior to his Rules debut; and he also won two bumpers, including the Cheltenham Bumper when held up in a field of 19. Sent hurdling this term, he won in a field of 25 - count 'em! - on first start before being outpaced in consecutive Grade 1's. The horse in question is Jasmin De Vaux, of course, and he's now a little shorter than ideal. I backed him at 33/1 (bully for me, I know) but I'm not going to tip him here at 8/1 for all that he fits the bill.
Another that I like is Wingmen, second when Jasmin was fourth last time, in the Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1 at DRF. He won a bumper, then a maiden hurdle - beating Turners fourth Forty Coats - before being outpaced over 2m1f here. In two starts since that December sighter, he's finished third in the Lawlor's Of Naas and second as mentioned. He handles quick ground and has a very good profile for this.
Front runners have a good recent record in the race, as do prominent types, so that's a further positive to his chance; and his trainer, Gordon Elliott, won the race with the aforementioned identikit winner, Stellar Story.
And there's one more from the Leopardstown G1 worthy of a mention, I think. Sounds Victorius was fourth in the Champion Bumper last year, never nearer than at the finish. Second in a small field novice on hurdling debut, he then won a 12-runner maiden, leading then getting headed before outstaying a horse that looked very likely to win. Stepped straight up to Grade 1 level, he was again outpaced before plugging on. I'm not sure he's good enough for this - maybe he wants four miles rather than three - but he sort of fits the profile.
Fishery Lane was a six length fifth in last year's Champion Bumper and has looked fairly slow in his hurdle races to date. He's a bit of a flier on the basis that he's not run in Graded company over timber but that good effort at the Festival last year gives me some hope he can be competitive. He handles quicker ground and is surely in need of this extra road to slow the others down.
John McConnell went close in this in 2021 with Streets Of Doyen, and Intense Approach has a similar feel to that one: campaigned through the previous summer, a winning Cheltenham sighter at the October meeting before a midwinter break and one run prior to the Festival. Both had bundles of good ground form and were very experienced.
Of the Brits, Wendigo's Challow second to The New Lion could not have been better advertised, that one winning the Turners on Wednesday. The Challow has seen eight runs from its field since, five of them ending in victory; Wendigo won before and since that effort and could go well though I'm not convinced about his battling qualities (I could definitely be wrong on that).
There are a few classier types in the field, not least Jet Blue, Ballyhassen Paddy and the mare The Big Westerner; but there always are, and they usually get beat by the more streetwise contenders. At least that's the way to bet.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Just loads and loads of pace here. It'll be attritional I expect and you want one that can handle that sort of cauldron.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection
Very tricky and taking two (or three) win only pokes in this big field feels like a good idea. Jasmin De Vaux and Wingmen don't really fit the long price bill though both have their chance; I couldn't put you off a win bet on either. But at daft prices and for small money, I'll risk the trio of Fishery Lane, Sounds Victorius and Intense Approach win only.
Suggestion: Avoid the short-priced classy horses and punt something at a price that might be better suited to this kind of bare knuckle cage fight. Each of 25/1 Fishery Lane, 25/1 Sounds Victorius and 16/1 Intense Approach has a bit of a squeak if things fall kindly.
Matt's Tix Pix: I'll be putting some big prices on A and hoping to get a result.
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is almost impossible to oppose in the Gold Cup as he attempts to emulate Arkle and Best Mate in winning three Gold Cups in a row in the post-war era. Having won his third Irish Gold Cup last month, he has scared off stablemate Fact To File, the only horse who had looked a serious threat to his crown at Christmas when John Durkan form was reversed in the Savills Chase. Fact To File finished closer in the Irish Gold Cup but only because Townend plated rope-a-dope in front and turned the race into a sprint, impressing with how he quickened from the last to the line, while Fact To File was collared on the post for second by Grangeclare West.
Accidents can befall any horse, at home or on the racecourse, so there really is no such thing as a banker; but there is no strong reason to oppose the dual winner on what he’s shown this season, with his defeat at Punchestown in the John Durkan easy to forgive given he’s neither at his best over that trip or at that track, where his only defeats when completing over fences have come. Beaten by Fact To File there, he has shown the form to be misleading by slamming that talented rival twice at Leopardstown, brooking no argument as to which is the better horse.
With last year’s placed horses exiting stage left and Grey Dawning reportedly bypassing Cheltenham altogether, the Gold Cup looks the favourite’s to lose unless the ground dries back more than expected. In that scenario, Banbridge might be a danger to him having been confirmed for the race on the back of his King George win. I’ve liked Banbridge since watching him win the Martin Pipe in the company of Brendan Powell, who could not praise the horse highly enough, but while he proved his stamina for a sharp three miles of the King George, he still has the speed for two miles, and there are very few with that speed who can also stretch out the extra two and a half furlongs required up Cheltenham’s daunting hill.
I considered L’Homme Presse the horse most likely to follow Galopin des Champs home, but a minor setback has ruled him out. Corbett’s Cross showed at Ascot that he doesn’t jump well enough to win a race like this, and the supplemented Inothewayurthinkin is the better of the McManus hopes now that Fact To File has been rerouted.
In truth, Inothewayurthinkin is clearly not as good as Fact To File, having finished behind that rival in races won by Galopin des Champs on his last two starts. On the other hand, he’s also not capable of winning a Ryanair being a thorough stayer, and a Gold Cup weakened by withdrawals is a very realistic option for Gavin Cromwell’s 2024 Kim Muir winner. The Grand National is his main aim, but with questions over most of his rivals, he looks the one most likely to pick up the pieces in an attritional race.
Of course, a tactical affair will suit Banbridge better, but I suspect Paul Townend will be aware that Banbridge is the one who could spoil the party and will look to make this a test of stamina. That scenario is likely to see Banbridge look the main danger for much of the race, but Inothewayurthinkin will be staying on best after the last. While he’s unlikely to lay a glove on the favourite, he has every chance of out-slogging the classy Banbridge for second. At time of writing, seven of Gavin Cromwell’s 11 runners on the first two days have been placed or would have been placed but for a late fall, and his team is in better form than most at this meeting.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
There's a very good chance that Galopin Des Champs and Paul Townend keep it simple by bidding to make all. A few of his rivals need to try to get him out of his comfort zone so that's something to keep in mind, but the champ doesn't need to lead.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection
Suggestion: Try a Galopin des Champs/Inothewayurthinkin Exacta
4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)
Previewed by Paul Jones.
The news in the last few days surrounds Willitgoahead who has been bought and sent to Gordon Elliott who would have had no time to do anything with him so don’t let that have any effect on how you judge his chance. He is now more or less joint-fav with Angels Dawn having impressed with his jumping when winning at Thurles after racing in last early. I wouldn’t fancy those tactics being pulled off on the New Course so maybe he’ll sit handier early.
On the figures ANGELS DAWN is the one to beat as she receives a 7lb mares’ allowance here unlike when she won the Kim Muir two years ago (and would have been placed last year behind a Gold Cup hope but for a late fall). She also didn’t have that allowance when winning a point to point at Dromahane, beating Ryehill by 6l who has since run all over Itsontheline at Naas, and they are the other pair in the top four in the betting. Ryehill won that race despite a bad mistake three out and his jumping could let him down in this sterner test.
Angels Dawn is ten now, and up until last year the previous nine winners were aged ten or eleven. Sam Curling’s mare also finished a close-up third in last season’s Thyestes so competitive, big-field chases bring the very best out of her and I’m hoping that, after Sine Nomine last year, mares can bag back-to-back wins.
Runner-up for the last two seasons, Its On The Line is hard work but usually keeps pulling it out which is what made his Naas run, where he found little in the home straight, all the more disappointing. I think he needs to run himself into form/fitness as his very best efforts have been after Cheltenham but he is only reaching his prime now as he was just aged six and seven when runner-up for the last two runnings. Maybe Emmet Mullins had left more to work on at Naas than he is giving away (he had a hard race in that prep last year which may have taken an edge off him for Cheltenham?) but it was disconcerting to hear rumours that JP McManus, owner of Its On The Line, was trying to buy Willitgoahead: that may suggest a lack of confidence if the whispers are accurate.
Behind the Irish-trained top four in the market come four home hopes and the Brits have won three of the last four renewals. I can’t see Allmankind staying, and Music Drive has yet to run in a hunter chase (just one of those has won since 1993), so the other pair interest me more. Paul Nicholls has trained four Festival Hunter Chase winners so Shearer is respected, though I wonder if the Aintree Foxhunters’ might suit him better as he typically races over shorter trips and easier tracks.
So Fairly Famous appeals most of the home team. He beat the 2023 winner of this race, Premier Magic, by 4½l on Cheltenham’s Hunter Chase night back in early May (also won the same race by 15l the previous season) and has since won both his point to points this winter and clearly goes very well for Gina Andrews.
Rocky’s Howya was third two years ago but missed last season, which I know full well as was looking out for him as my horse for the 2024 version. He would have been closer but for meeting interference on the run-in behind Premier Magic and Its On The Line in 2023, so he also interests me now that he is back and won a point last time out.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map
The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection
Suggestion: Back 4/1 Angels Dawn to win, and/or consider 20/1 Fairly Famous and 18/1 Rocky's Howya each way.
Matt's Tix Pix: Angels Dawn and a few others on A, some bigger prices on B
A race that seemingly revolves around one horse this year, Kopek De Mee.
What we know about him; this will be his first start on British soil for Willie Mullins, having raced five times over hurdles in France for his previous yard and, as such, the handicapper hasn’t had a lot to go on, giving him his French mark of 136 (which he has to do, by the way).
It isn’t as if his French form means he’s thrown in here, though. Timeform, who can on occasions rave about these marks given to Willie’s from France, have him only fifth best, admittedly with a “p”, so progress is likely. Neither have we seen him for 310 days, and all his form so far has been on deep ground. We’ve seen good things beaten in this before; at 5-2 you can leave me out, thanks very much.
There’s one in here I’ve been keen on since his Warwick run at the start of February and those of you that have been lucky/unlucky enough to watch or listen to the podcasts I’ve been doing for a rival publication (sorry Matt) will know that No Ordinary Joe is the horse that caught my, and others', eyes that day.
No Ordinary Joe was seventh in the Martin Pipe last year when Nicky was having his week from hell, and this time around he’s been spared a hard campaign, racing just the three times this season but it was a much better effort at Warwick last time, despite not looking entirely fit.
He was close enough two out to throw down a challenge but Callum Pritchard looked after him a bit after the last, and despite only being beaten two lengths, and he looked like there was a bit left in the tank.
The handicapper left him alone for that, meaning a mark of 138 will be 2lb lower than last year, and although Pritchard has been claimed by Ben Pauling to ride No Questions Asked, Freddie Gingell, among the winners elsewhere this week, is a most able deputy.
Wodhooh is an in-form mare that’s unbeaten in six hurdles starts, and her defeat of Joyeuse and Take No Chances last time out is solid form, but the market has her well found. In some ways, I’d not be shocked if she went off favourite, given her form looks more solid than Kopek De Mee’s, but at the time of writing Gordon Elliott is not having the best of Festival weeks, with too many of his fading out of contention for comfort. That may change on Thursday or earlier on Friday but she only makes limited appeal.
At 33-1 I’ll also have a little bit on Electric Mason as the back-up selection. A good looker, he’s twice come up against The New Lion, beaten 4½ lengths on the first occasion and then nine lengths by him in the Challow. Needless to say, that form looks all the better after The New Lion’s win in the Turners earlier in the week, and a mark of 132 seems more than fair. The ground should suit and quotes of 25-1 and bigger are worth a fiver of your cash.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map
Another big field and some relatively inexperienced riders, so this ought to be quickly run from the start. It's been won by some really classy future chasers in the pase - see the list above - and it will be fascinating to see which Grade 1 horse(s) reveal themselves here.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Back No Ordinary Joe at 12/1 and/or Electric Mason at 33/1.
*
And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2025. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.
Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham, Matt Tombs and Paul Jones are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.
Be lucky.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/galopindeschamps_langerdan_cheltenhamMartinPipe2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-13 09:04:322025-03-13 09:32:21Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips
Day Three, Thursday, and it's a case of New Courses for Old as we 'change ends' for the second half. Fresh ground, then, probably nicely watered so no excuses - apart from the obvious (picking the wrong horse).
1.20 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Full disclosure: this race is not my favourite. It's not because I haven't had a degree of success in finding the winner during its short history (new race in 2016) nor that I don't see its place at the Festival. On the contrary, I've backed a couple of good winners, and fully recognise the importance of such races for the mares' programme - something that is far more relevant to the breeding industry than the glut of Graded races for geldings which blighted the winter until this season. Hats off to the BHA for sorting that. That was an unexpected ranty sidebar to kick things off...
No, the reason I've not yet warmed to the Dawn Run is that it's been a bit second division more often than not. Perhaps this will be the year that ignites my attraction to it - finding the winner will help no end in that regard, so let's crack on.
You'll note a couple of things from the list of winners below. Firstly, Willie won the first five renewals of the race; and secondly, neither he nor any other Irish trainer has won in the past three renewals. It's a small sample size but offes hope to the domestics.
Sixandahalf has been almost a default ante post favourite, her one hurdles spin resulting in a twelve length beating of the expensive point recruit Qualimita. The problem with that is Qualimita appears not to be very good: she's been beaten twice since most recently at odds on. Still, Sixandahalf was also a very good bumper winner and switched codes to run third in the ultra-valuable Irish Cesarewitch (worth £223,000 and change more to the winner than the Dawn Run - sheesh).
She's inexperienced over hurdles, with just that one run, and might want a little further than this marginally extended two miles.
Maughreen is another one of dem Willie talking horses. She too has had just one try over hurdles, and she's less experienced generally than Sixandahalf, having only raced once prior - winning a bumper easily. So she's two from two and unextended each time. While a couple of winners have emerged from that hurdle score, one of them was subsequently beaten 20 lengths in a handicap hurdle off a lowly 102; she was 15 lengths behind Maughreen so make of it what you will.
Aurora Vega, thought to be on the sick list, is declared. There have been a few on the preview circuit keen to know her form but she's won six of her nine starts and all three of her completed hurdles starts, including when making all in a Grade 3 Mares' Hurdle last time. She's likely to be close to the pace which, in a big field, might not be optimal but her experience and ability to 'get it done' are assets that many of her rivals cannot match.
Galileo Dame, a four-year-old, has been declared here rather than in the Triumph and that looks a smart call. Although she faces elder rivals there's nothing of the proven ability of East India Dock and perhaps nothing of the rumoured ability of Lulamba in this field. Moreover, she receives a chunky 10lb weight allowance from the older mares. Trained by Joseph O'Brien, no stranger to Festival success, she has more experience than most of her rivals having finished second in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at the DRF as well as in her debut hurdle race; additionally, she ran eight times on the flat.
As a flat filly, she won a Leopardstown maiden (10f, heavy) before a tilt at the Irish Oaks where she was unplaced. Sights lowered to Listed class, she bagged silver in her final two goes on the level, eventually rated high-90's. If there's a niggle it might be that she tends to find one too good but she looks to be a serious player in this.
What is certain is that other mares have better form in the book for all that this pair can improve, perhaps significantly, from their current demonstrated levels. Recent winners have had more experience, and that is an asset for Karoline Banbou, a multiple podium finisher in French Graded AQPS races before getting off the mark over timber at the deuxieme time of asking in Ireland. That form is again open to question but she's shown up well in big fields and is a litte more streetwise than those at the top of the market.
Best of the home team in their quest for an unbroken four-timer in the Dawn Run is Jubilee Alpha, trained by Paul Nicholls - remember him? This six-year-old mare was second in the G2 Nickel Coin Mares' Bumper at Aintree, a race always loaded with talent, last spring. She's advertised that form herself in winning a Listed race at Taunton and a valuable Class 2 conditions event at Windsor. Taunton was the launchpad for Golden Ace's success in this race last year and we all know how much Nicholls would love winning this. He's got a bit of a chance with this mare.
Ben Pauling has an interesting one in Diva Luna. She was the mare to beat Jubilee Alpha in the Nickel Coin, and has since run 212 over hurdles. While I'm confident she'll step forward for her defeat at Sandown last time (at odds of 2/9 - ouch), the fact that the 2's were at two miles while the win was over two and a half, allied to her penchant for pacemaking, leaves her vulnerable to a finisher at this trip. There is a fair bit of rival front end speed, on paper at least, so that's another niggle regarding her case. I suspect she'll be a different proposition entirely when stepped back up in trip.
Nicholls has a second card to play in the shape of Just A Rose, an expensive recruit after winning a maiden point, but one who kept the dream alive for owners including the Brooks' (remember Saint Calvados and co?) when bolting up by 26 lengths in a Taunton maiden in mid-January. That's obviously a far cry from this test, but if you're considering backing Maughreen or Sixandahalf, the former especially, you'd get a squarer price on Just A Rose off a mirror image of a form case.
We all know to respect anything Henry de Bromhead saddles at the Cheltenham Festival and, as such, Air Of Entitlement is worthy of at least a second glance. True, she's only won a run of the mill bumper and an equally unremarkable maiden hurdle, well enough beaten in a Punchestown Festival bumper in between, so it's a leap of faith based on connections required. I can't immediately see it and will reluctantly allow her to beat me.
If this was two and a half miles, I'd be quite interested in the chance of Hollygrove Cha Cha, a winning machine for Hot To Trot Jumping. But it's not. At two miles, she's vulnerable as she showed with her only career defeat in six races behind Jubilee Alpha. Before and since then she's run thrice over hurdles at around two and a half miles and won each time, including in the Grade 2 Jane Seymour at Sandown last time. She's a lovely mare and one to follow, but this will probably be too sharp for her unless they go very hard early (which, in such a big field, they might).
Plenty of other unexposed ones, including Willie's Venusienne. She's too inexperienced to interest me, however.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
With so many runners, this is bound to be run at a right good lick.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection
An open race - far more so than the ante post betting suggested - and one where I want to take on Maughreen and Sixandahalf. Both have their chance but so do many others. At the prices, then, I'm keen on Galileo Dame with her experience and hefty weight pull; and will try a small each way on Jubilee Alpha to see Paul Nicholls do a Keegan.
Suggestion: Back 5/1 Galileo Dame to win and/or 9/1 Jubilee Alpha each way.
Matt's Tix Pix: I'm taking a fair few here across A and B - could be the placepot dividend maker
2.00 Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase (Handicap, 2m 4f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
This race is back after a four year hiatus and returns as the 2005-10 version, run on the New Course as a 20lb limited handicap with no ratings ceiling.
In practice, the ratings ceiling (140 between 2011 and 2017, 145 between 2018 and 2020) didn’t make that much difference. In the six renewals with no ratings ceiling no horse ran off higher than 148. The last ten renewals had a weight spread of between 4lb and 10lb so whether it is nominally a limited or full handicap has had little impact. It looks like being a different renewal this year with Springwell Bay running off 154 and a bigger weight spread below him.
This has also been a race where smaller yards have fared well. Willie Mullins has never won any handicap chase at the Festival, and neither Gordon Elliott nor Dan Skelton has won this race. Nicky Henderson, Henry de Bromhead and Paul Nicholls have won it once each. Six of the 16 winners were giving their trainers a first Festival winner so don’t be put off if a horse you fancy comes from a smaller yard.
A bit like the Plate, this has been a race for intermediate trip specialists: 12 of the 16 winners, including nine of the last ten, had shown their best chase form (judged by Racing Post Ratings) at intermediate trips.
Perhaps the most important trend is how predictable a race it has been. Lots of punters saw a 20-runner handicap chase for novices (as mentioned, the maximum field has been increased to 22) and thought it would be a bit of a lottery. In fact it’s been the most predictable handicap of the meeting over conventional obstacles. 13 of the 16 winners have come from the first five in the SP market, ten of which came from the first three in the betting. Don’t be put off taking a single figure price despite the big field.
A bit like the Fred Winter this has a trial that has proved a really strong guide – the 2m4½f novice handicap chase on Trials Day at Cheltenham in late-January. Four of the last eight winners contested it finishing 7312. It seemed a strong renewal of that novice handicap this year, with Whistle Stop Tour looking a leading contender for the Ultima and Resplendent Grey having decent claims in the National Hunt Chase. Moon D'Orange won on Trials Day despite a howler at the last and, despite a 6lb rise, he looks a player here.
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Pace Map
Another big field, and likely plenty of pace on once more.
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Selection
Suggestion: Try Moon D'Orange at 14/1.
Matt's Tix Pix: Two or three A's and hope to be lucky
A quick plug before I start this race as in Gary Wiltshire’s new book Fifty Years In The Betting Jungle that I co-wrote and published by Weatherbys, one of his many tales relates to the Pertemps from way back in 1983 when it was then the Coral Golden Hurdle, and won by Forgive ‘n Forget hosed up with Barney Curley’s fingerprints all over it. Plug over. [Book available here - Ed.]
After the Leopardstown qualifier that featured six of the last nine winners was run, I went for lightning to strike twice in backing FEET OF A DANCER at 16/1 each-way (four places at the time). She finished third there as did another Paul Nolan-trained mare in Mrs Milner which won the Final having also placed in the same qualifier. They ran almost identical races in that they travelled strongly and took it up only to be run out of it on the run-in. My concern is the drying ground as she likes cut but the New Course will have been watered for Day 1 of the two days they race on it if necessary.
Henderson and McManus have turned to first-time cheekpieces for the favourite, Jeriko Du Reponet, who was a running-on third in his qualifier. I don’t know, I just think there’s ‘something of the night’ about him and his stamina has to be taken on trust.
Even though he has won a qualifier, which is usually a no-no for the Final given that only two of the last 29 winners have done so, I prefer the Leopardstown winner Win Some Lose Some of the McManus pair. JP has won the Final four times before and Padraig Roche’s charge looks firmly on the up.
That 'winners of qualifiers' negative stat should come under pressure as (a) more of them should turn up as the Pertemps is now a ‘win-and-you’re in’ race and (b) since two years ago only the first four can qualify from a qualifying race (reduced from six and having previously been eight) so no more fifth-and-sixth-placed finishers squeaking in. Actually, they didn’t have a good record in the Final anyway as it was horses that finished second, third and fourth in qualifiers that had been winning the vast majority of finals.
Until winners of qualifiers start winning the Final though, I will continue to look elsewhere so won’t be siding with Will The Wise (won the last qualifier at Naas in such gruelling ground they couldn’t finish the card so can he recover in time?), Catch Him Derry (wants it soft according to Dan Skelton) or Henri The Second (same reason). Other winners of qualifiers are Harbour Lake, Super Survivor, One Big Bang and J’Ai Froid.
Gordon Elliott has a fabulous record in the Final but both of his qualifiers, Patter Merchant and Lucky Lyreen, also ran in those atrocious conditions at Naas just 18 days ago.
Karl Des Tourelles was second in the Punchestown qualifier in November but only two five-year-olds have won since the race was first run in 1974.
D ART D ART’s second in the Carlisle qualifier catches the eye as he went from held up to leading at the last and may well have won but for edging left on the run-in; back in third was Gwennie May Boy who has franked the form since when comfortably winning the Rendlesham. I like a hold-up horse for the Pertemps and prior to that he came from the rear again to finish an eye-catching third of 23 at Navan over 2m6f having previously won over 2m4f so the gradual steps up in trip are also proving beneficial to him.
Trained by Tommy Cooper, no stranger to Festival success having won the Champion Bumper with Total Enjoyment, looking at the race fresh I’ll take an each-way chance at the general 11/1 to six places that D Art D Art can be his second Cheltenham winner some 21 years later.
Onto the Brits and the Hendo pair of Doddiethegreat and Shanagh Bob have claims. I sensed at the media day I attended at Seven Barrows that he was quite sweet on Doddiethegreat running well having outrun big odds to qualify recently at Haydock; first-time cheekpieces are applied. They thought they had already qualified Shanagh Bob until a rule change was tweaked so had to get him out once more than they wanted to.
Pertemps Final Recent Winners
Pertemps Final Pace Map
There's no shortage of runners on this card, but not a huge amount of signed on trailblazers here. Could be run at only an even gallop.
Pertemps Final Selection
Suggestion: Try D Art D Art each way at around 11/1 with all the extra places.
A race much maligned but one I personally love, and which has a habit of throwing up tremendous finishes. Who can forget Bryony's brilliantly bonkers post-race debrief after the wonderful Frodon took her all the way from the front in 2019?
This year's field has a ton of class - well, maybe back class - and most of them are in the right race for all that pundits aplenty will bleat that they should have gone short (Champion Chase) or long (Gold Cup). The fact is there's a vast tract of land between two miles and more than three and a quarter, and this is an eminently sensible test for intermediate stayers. That's my counter argument at least.
The favourite this year, and short, is Fact To File. A three time Grade 1 winner, twice as a novice and then first time up this season in the 2m4f John Durkan, he was widely expected to serve it up to Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup. But having been beaten by that one twice on quicker ground over three miles since, he's swerving a third beating in the Blue Riband in favour of theoretically easier pickings. He's not far off even money for this and at such a skinny quote one has to find a reason to oppose. Without looking too hard, I've unearthed two.
First, all his winning form is on soft ground and he was beaten the last twice on good to yielding and yielding; and second, isn't this trip a bit on the short side if it's not deep ground? In truth, I don't know, and it will shock literally nobody if he wins, even wins well. But those questions are enough to look for a bit of potential value elsewhere.
French raider Il Est Francais heads here from his choice of the three Championship chases, and I feel that's probably right after he was gunned down late by Banbridge in the King George at Christmas. Most of his French form is very smart, as are his two Kempton spins (he blitzed his field in the Kauto Star 15 months ago), but he too is a short price and has thrown a couple of outright clunkers in his last four races. Candidly, he has the profile of a 'bleeder': one who, under the pressure of a race can burst a blood vessel.
Il Est Francais is likely to try to make all, tactics adopted successfully by not just the aforementioned Frodon but also Allaho twice and, a little further back, Uxizandre and Cue Card. But he should expect contention for the lead, from one or more of Heart Wood, Jungle Boogie and Hang In There. If he does get an 'easy', he's a danger no doubt.
Last year's winner, Protektorat, returns to defend his crown and he comes here off a pretty good season so far including a win in a valuable conditions race at Windsor's Winter Millions fixture in late January. My feeling is that he might just prefer a softer surface; but if he handles the expected quicker turf he's an obvious player again albeit that no horse older than nine has won this since Albertas Run doubled up in 2011.
The 2023 winner, Envoi Allen, also tries again. He was second to Protektorat last year as a ten-year-old and, well into the veteran stage now, looks an unlikely - if hugely popular - winner to my eye.
Jungle Boogie is also 11, as is Hang In There. Neither has achieved as much as age mate Envoi Allen, though JB has been lightly raced, and as such they cannot be seriously fancied.
At the other end of the age spectrum, Djelo may have more to offer than his already progressive profile. Last seen winning the G2 Denman Chase over 2m7f, the worry is that, like Fact To File, he maybe needs further and/or softer. Unlike FTF, Djelo is an each way price. His form ties in with Protektorat, but he's two and a half times that one's price as well.
Master Chewy is a two miler stepping up in trip. A good winner of the Game Spirit (G2) at Newbury last time, he might have been better off going to the Queen Mother, his two races at this distance yielding a brace of eighth placed finishes, granted over hurdles.
Another young buck, Heart Wood, rounds out the nine horse field. A Listed Hurdle winner in France before transferring to Henry de Bromhead, he went straight over fences in Ireland winning at the fourth time of asking in a valuable Leopardstown handicap before a good third in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree. This season, he bashed Corbetts Cross first time out (form not to take literally), was a neck second to the decent Croke Park in the Drinmore Novices' Chase before losing his novice status and running a creditable fourth to Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas. Henry can be expected to have improved him in the interim and I like his quietly ascendant profile, form on all surfaces, and proven ability at this distance. He's got a little bit to find on ratings but, as the joint youngest in the field, he's more entitled than most to do so.
Ryanair Chase Recent Winners
Ryanair Chase Pace Map
The French raider is very likely to take them along and he probably doesn't want too much rope. Unless you've backed him, of course.
Ryanair Chase Selection
A race in which Fact To File makes the price for anything else you might like. Of course, he might just go and win but the race doesn't look a perfect profile fit for his skillset and so an each way alternative is sought. Il Est Francais is not an each way price and is a bit of a binary sort these days in any case. The two I like in that win and place context are Djelo and Heart Wood. The former has a better level of proven ability but might want a bit further/softer, the latter has race conditions in his favour but needs to improve - I think he maybe can.
Suggestion: Back one or both of 16/1 Heart Wood and/or 12/1 Djelo, each way a pleasure.
Matt's Tix Pix: A couple on A including Fact To File, and some B's including unnamed favourite. I want to get FTF beat but not sure I can get him off the ticket!
Teahupoo is the market leader again for the Stayers’ having won last year and, as then, he arrives after just one prep run in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December. He was beaten by Lossiemouth this time although Gordon Elliott was more than happy with that run and has set him aside since. He looks at his best when the mud is flying, with form figures on soft or heavy reading 111111111 as opposed to 21963412 on good or good to soft ground. Freshness is also clearly important, with his record off a break of 50+ days reading 111111112, and off shorter breaks 119634.
This year, the freshness box is ticked but Teahupoo will need more rain to get his desired ground, seemingly unlikely as I pen these words. It is also intriguing that Elliott does not rely on Teahupoo alone, but also has the switched Pertemps fancy The Wallpark in this race. That gelding ran well in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot but needs to improve again to win at the top level.
Home By The Lee is the main danger on form, having beaten Bob Olinger in both the Lismullen Hurdle and the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, and he’s reported to be a different horse this season by connections. He would indeed need to do something different to win this race at the fourth attempt having been no closer than third previously. That is possible, but to be honest, I don’t think his form this season is any better than it was 12 months ago for all he may be transformed on the home gallops.
Bob Olinger is held on this season’s form and looks a weak finisher at this trip, but it should be pointed out that he has a great Cheltenham record, winning the Baring Bingham and the Turners (Golden Miller) in March before landing last year’s Relkeel. That record flatters him a touch as he would have been beaten readily by Galopin des Champs on the second occasion but for that horse tumbling at the last fence. The anticipated ground will help Bob Olinger in terms of seeing the race out, but he tends to look awkward under pressure these days and isn’t convincing enough to draw me in.
Third to Home By The Lee at Leopardstown was the relative novice Rocky’s Pride, who improved on that when winning the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran next time. Declan Queally’s charge would be a big Stayers' stat buster as he bids to become the first five-year-old to win this contest in the modern era (*dons anorak* The Spa Hurdle, which was the equivalent contest at the post-war Cheltenham, was won by five-year-old Whim in 1951, but the race that year took place in late April, and the weights ranged from 11-12 to 10-4, suggesting that comparisons are pointless).
If there is a genuine staying star of the future in the field, it’s him, and the youngster won the Galmoy while still looking a work in progress. Realistically, he probably needs another year to reach maturity as a stayer, but I think there is a huge amount of talent there and I don’t want to pass him over without mention.
LUCKY PLACE isn’t a certain stayer, but last year’s Coral Cup fourth has improved again this term, winning the Ascot Hurdle and the Relkeel, and while it’s probably a little ingenuous to point out that he had the current Champion Hurdle winner behind on both those occasions, it does bear mentioning that he was giving weight to subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Gowel Road on the latter occasion. He needed every yard in the Relkeel and looks to my eye like he will stay three miles - on good ground at least - and he’s the percentage call, with a win bet making more appeal than backing him each-way given that slight query about the trip
Stayers' Hurdle Recent Winners
Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map
Gowel Road is the probable pace maker and he does love it at Cheltenham. Not many others tend to go forward but perhaps Home By The Less will be thereabouts.
It should be noted that it was a Class 1 Grade 3 contest from 2004 to 2022 but since 2023 it has become just a Class 1 race.
This is not the strongest trends race of the week but here are the main stats based on the past 25 years. In terms of the betting market, winners have been well spread across different prices. Four of the last six have been 9/1 or less, but overall, only seven out of the 25 winners were single figure prices. Nine winners were 20/1 or bigger with a further 25 placed so you cannot rule out many runners based on price.
In terms of weight carried there were no wins for the two highest weighted runners but overall there has been an even distribution of winners and placed runners across the weights. Likewise, when looking at the age of the horses there is no clear pattern. Horses aged 9 or older have been competitive and arguably have offered better long-term value than their younger counterparts. Having said that, beware of horses that have raced a lot over fences: those with 17 or more career starts over fences prior to their Plate spin have won just once from 116 runners.
Venetia Williams has had three winners and six placed from 31 but no win since 2013 (she did saddle the second in 2016 at 33/1). She runs Gemirande and an interesting outsider in Demnat this year. Irish runners have won five of the last nine renewals and are definitely targeting this race more than in the early 2000s.
Last time out winners have done well, claiming ten of the 25 renewals in my trends sample from 99 runners with 28% placing. 22 of the last 25 finished in the first seven last time out. Horses that won at least once in their last three starts have been three times more likely to win and twice as likely to place as horses who have drawn a blank in those three runs.
The first two horses to discuss are two that don’t stand out from a trends perspective. Ginnys Destiny did very little wrong last season including three wins and a second at Cheltenham. This season he has disappointed three times when prominent in the betting on all three occasions. What those runs have done is lower his handicap mark to 149, 6lb below where it was at the start of the season. Paul Nicholls has been talking him up and if he's anywhere near his best he comes into the equation.
The Companysergeant is interesting for two reasons. Firstly, he has recently moved to the Gavin Cromwell yard and in his only race for them finished a close up third over hurdles. After three decent runs in the summer of 2024 his form that autumn was poor, which may have prompted the stable switch. Secondly, I keep beeing drawn back to his six-length fourth to Spillane’s Tower in the Grade 1 WillowWarm Gold Cup at the end of March last year. If he can match that form he has a very solid chance.
Jagwar is the clear favourite at the time of writing. He has come here rather than the Jack Richards Novices’ handicap earlier on the card so connections clearly think he can beat more seasoned rivals. He was a winner at Cheltenham last time in what looked a hot handicap so that is a positive trends wise. Although he has gone up 7lb he's clearly still improving. It's only his price that tempers enthusiasm.
An Peann Dearg comes here on a hat-trick and was very impressive last time at Leopardstown. However, he's gone up 12lb for that effort. Like Jagwar he had an entry in the Jack Richards but takes his chance here. Despite the rise in the weights he could still be thereabouts.
Personal Ambition would have won two starts back at Ascot in a Grade 2 chase but for a terrible mistake at the last. As a hurdler, he claimed some big scalps last year including Jango Baie. If you can forgive his latest run he looks a decent price and trainer Ben Pauling, who won the race last year, definitely knows how to train a handicap chaser. Since 2022 Pauling has a strike rate in handicap chases of close to 22% returning 19p in the £ to SP (33p to BSP). Personal Ambition also should be close to the pace which I think is important here based on the overall stats for this course and distance as well as the recent history of this race.
Festival Plate Recent Winners
Festival Plate Pace Map
Yet another big field and another with no out and out speed merchants. Any of Ginny's, Gemirande, Seddon and Personal Ambition might play 'catch me'.
Festival Plate Selection
I backed the The Companysergeant ante post at much bigger odds and the price is a little too tight now for me. I am going for two against the field at bigger odds from either side of the pond.
Suggestion: Back Personal Ambition each way at 20/1 and An Peann Dearg each way at 16/1 (5 places)
5.20 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)
Previewed by David Massey.
I do love the Kim Muir. The purists will scoff, but you could put seven Kim Muir’s on on the Thursday and I’d be happy as a sandboy. Honest.
And this year I’m fairly confident I’ve got the winner from a choice of two. (Famous last words.)
The Irish, as ever, have a strong hand in this, and Midnight Our Fred has to be on any shortlist you care to draw up for this.
He was entered up in the marathon on Day One, but once confirmations meant it looked very much like he’d get a run in this, there was only ever one way he’d go.
He isn’t a clever selection by any means, but look how many boxes he ticks. Firstly, Cheltenham form: three runs at the track resulting in three second places, including to Mole Court in an amatuers event back here in 2023, narrowly failing to peg back the (then) improving winner on the run-in to the tune of half a length. Off the back of that he ran another solid race at the December meeting and came back again at the April two-dayer to run second to Hymac over 3m4f, the pair nicely clear of anything else. Those three efforts ranged on ground from good to soft, so whatever the elements may throw at him before Thursday, he should handle with ease.
And the good form doesn’t stop there, either; this season, an easy 14-length win at Gowran Park on his seasonal debut was followed up by an excellent second in the big-field Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. See what I mean about him ticking every box? Cheltenham form, big-field form, stays well, goes well for an amateur? What’s not to like, good readers of Geegeez?
I’ll back him up with another of the Irish contingent in Mint Boy, who has definitely been laid out for this after just the four chase starts. Useful over hurdles, he made a solid start to his chasing career when third to Search For Glory and Sa Majeste at Gowran Park, and two quick runs in December (over shorter trips) looked nothing more than a means to an end in getting him a mark. A better effort at Punchestown last month when third to High Class Hero should have teed him up nicely for this, and he remains totally unexposed over fences. This stamina test seems sure to suit, and I can see him taking a big step forward form-wise now.
Finding something among the British contingent that might be able to throw down a challenge isn’t easy. I have a soft spot for Dom Of Mary and put him up for this last year; a couple of mistakes on the way around hardly helped his cause, but he could get no nearer than eighth, and unless there’s an absolute deluge on Wednesday it might well be more of the same.
I suppose the capable but utterly inconsistent Weveallbeencaught is of some interest in new headgear. He looked a happier horse when returned to Nigel Twiston-Davies at Doncaster in January, winning an easy nine lengths, but couldn’t repeat that effort when fifth in the Grimthorpe last time out. On goes some stronger headgear, with the visor replacing cheekpieces, and a tongue tie is also employed, as it was in the Ultima last year (when sixth). Toby McCain-Mitchell is one of the better British riders, in my opinion, and if he’s on a going day, he could give his pilot a decent spin.
Kim Muir Recent Winners
Kim Muir Pace Map
Midnight Our Fred is most likely to set the tempo, though there is a clutch who could challenge early. Should be run at a decent gallop.
Kim Muir Selection
Suggestion: Split stakes between 9/1 Midnight Our Fred and 12/1 Mint Boy.
*
And that's us three-quarters of the way home. Hopefully you've had a couple of good draws already; if not, fear not for Gold Cup day will follow. But let's enjoy Thursday's sport first!
Good luck
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/275616468-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-12 12:28:392025-03-12 18:22:20Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips
Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
Day Two. Wednesday. The second half of the first half - or the second quarter if you prefer - and a day when, seemingly, it has rained since time immemorial. After a full soaking in the past two years, it's looking dry if a little cool for Day 2 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. There's much to go at so let's crack on - slightly earlier start, don't forget. Over to our team of shrewdies (and me) for their thoughts. Vamanos!
1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
Previewed by Rory Delargy.
The Turners - or to save confusion the Baring Bingham - Novices’ Hurdle kicks off Tuesday’s card and looks a fairly straightforward race to analyse from a race shape perspective. I’d imagine one of the Mullins pair Kaid d’Authie and Kappa Jye Pyke will go forward, if not both, and that should ensure that regular front-runner Sixmilebridge doesn’t get an easy lead. Sixmilebridge might be a player if he can get loose in front, having employed those tactics to beat a slightly below-par Potters Charm in the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle here on Trials Day.
That wasn’t strictly over course and distance as it took place on the New Course and, while the winner did it well, it’s hard to take a high view of the form unless assuming Potters Charm ran right up to his best, which I don’t think he did, albeit not falling that far short of his previous standard. Given that was Trials Day, it’s interesting to see how winners of that race have got on in the Baring Bingham over the years. Much has been made of the poor record of Challow winners in the race, but you need to go back to Monsignor to find the last horse to win the Classic and the Baring Bingham in the same season. That’s disappointing given the similarity in track and trip, and the horses who have gone on to success at Cheltenham after winning in January were the stayers Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross, underlining how the New Course tests stamina above tactical speed.
Potters Charm is better judged on his track and trip win in November and his Grade 1 win in the Formby at Aintree in December. Those victories catapulted him to the head of the market for this race, but they do not look as good now as they did at the time, and his defeat of Miami Magic at Aintree compares poorly with Tripoli Flyer’s win over the same horse at Kempton last time. Tripoli Flyer might be a little underrated with neither Musselburgh nor Kempton striking as the ideal track for a horse with plenty of late boot, but the concern with him is that he was reported to have broken a blood vessel despite winning the Dovecote, and that is a no-no here.
The New Lion is the best of the British and just shades favouritism after winning the Challow at Newbury in December. He was visually impressive, enough for J P McManus to open his chequebook, but the form of the Challow is pretty hollow. The runner-up Wendigo is a progressive stayer, but the Newbury race tested speed over stamina for a change, and Wendigo was outpaced before running on late for second. The horses that The New Lion actually bested at Newbury looked promising at the time, but neither Regents Stroll nor Bill Joyce have fulfilled early promise over hurdles and, on paper, the form is not at all strong for a Grade 1 hurdle. I get the impression that The New Lion might have had plenty more in hand, but it’s hard to put a figure on that, and my feeling is that he’s been overrated by the handicappers, public and private.
Dan Skelton knows more about this gelding’s latent ability and seems full of confidence, which makes me wary of taking him on, but his price assumes he is every bit as good as he looked at Newbury and then some, and I couldn’t make him anywhere near as short as the market does.
Final Demand was all the rage after beating Wingmen easily over 2¾m at the DRF but there was talk of him switching to the Albert Bartlett, and he drifted as a result. That came to nothing, and he should have regained favouritism when declared for this, but the doubts seem to have persisted. This race has gone to Champion Hurdle prospects in the past (Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Faugheen) and if there is a Champion Hurdler in this field then it isn't Final Demand, who looks as if he would gallop all day. I suspect this is why he’s deemed opposable, as he might be vulnerable in a tactical race, and that should be taken on board. On the other hand, the race has also been won by plenty of stayers down the years and if Paul Townend wants to set an end-to-end gallop, then Final Demand looks a willing partner. I think he’s a much better option than The New Lion and he deserves to be favourite.
Given what I’ve said above, I would not put anyone off Final Demand if getting 2/1 or bigger, but in acknowledging that his 12-length defeat of Wingmen at Leopardstown is the best form in the race, I must also point out that THE YELLOW CLAY beat Wingmen by 11 lengths and Jasmin de Vaux by 22 when winning the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas at – well, you know where it’s at – in January. Given Wingmen and Jasmin de Vaux finished third and fourth at Naas and then finished second and fourth at Leopardstown, it could be argued that they are excellent yardsticks for the novice form, and The Yellow Clay has a very similar chance to Final Demand on a line through the pair of them.
Much has been made of the fact that The Lawlor’s was run on heavy ground as if that was a big advantage to The Yellow Clay, but I thought he hated the ground (I think they all hated the ground, in truth) and that his inherent class saw him home. He certainly doesn’t need heavy, running below form in the Champion Bumper last year, albeit with credit, before turning the tables on Romeo Coolio at Punchestown in the Grade 1 bumper there, where he also had William Munny and Jasmin de Vaux behind. His first two hurdles wins also came on yielding ground, and he beat Fleur In The Park much more easily in the Monksfield than he did in the Navan Novice Hurdle on softer ground in December. Gordon Elliott seemed to me to have a twinkle in his eye when he says, “I’m not sure he’s as slow as people think” and he looks the standout value in the contest.
Turners Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Turners Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Lots of paper pace, and that man Mullins has the cards in terms of dictating the tempo. Should be truly run.
Turners Novices' Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Back The Yellow Clay each-way at 13/2.
This race has had an average field size of 11 runners but, as with last year when six went to post, we have a shorter field of just seven here. I was hoping for the 'dead eight' which as a punter clearly gives more options. Let's first look at past trends in this race going back 25 years.
Irish bred runners have won 19 of the 25 races from 172 runners which equates to 11% and have had just under 30% hit the frame; other countries combined (GB/FR etc) are 6 wins from 103 (5.8%) with 21% placed.
Age wise, 7yos have dominated with 20 wins from the last 25. Yes, they have had more than half of the total runners, 52% to be precise, but from that 52% they have won 80% of the races (31.3% placed). 6yos have just one win from 48 but have a decent placed record and they have just one qualifier this year in Quai De Bourbon. 8yos are three from 53 (5.7%) but with only 17% hitting the frame.
Looking at past market factors, between 1999 and 2014 there were seven double figure priced winners, but none since. There have been nine winning favourites (six in last 10 years) and 10 of the last 11 renewals have gone to one of the front three in the market.
Previous winning course form has been a plus with past Cheltenham winners 1.8 times more likely to win than those that have not. Previous Festival winners have done very well from a small band of runners. Of the 20 prior Cheltenham Festival winners five won (25%) and 12 in total won or placed (60%). Backing all 20 would have yielded a 61% ROI to BSP.
23 of the 25 winners won or came second LTO. Horses that finished third or worse are just two from 87 (2.3%).
All 25 winners raced between three and 11 weeks previously. Fifty horses have either run with a shorter or longer break than that and all of them lost, with only 10% of them managing a place.
Willie Mullins has saddled the winner five times, and he has the top two in the betting (and four of the seven runners in total). The favourite, Ballyburn, ticks many of the trends boxes. He won the Turners Novices’ hurdle at an absolute canter at the Festival last year; he won last time out; and he is eight from ten in his career, and two from three over fences. His loss over fences came at Kempton in December when beaten a speedier Sir Gino over two miles. This race is at three miles which is uncharted territory for him, but with the ground as it is, the consensus is he has every chance of staying. He is well clear on Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed and he looks a solid favourite, albeit at a short price.
Second favourite Dancing City has been ultra consistent over both hurdles and fences. From a trends perspective, however, he has a few negatives to overcome. He is an 8yo, is French bred, and has yet to win at Cheltenham. That said, and to be fair, he has only raced here once when third in last year’s Albert Bartlett. A positive is that we know he gets the trip.
Third in the market is Better Days Ahead, an interesting contender from the Gordon Elliott yard. He won at the festival last year in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (positive trend) and is two from three this year with his sole defeat being by a head two starts back at Leopardstown. He has only raced in very small fields over fences, and he will get that again here. A winner at the distance, there are no stamina concerns.
Gorgeous Tom has a few trends to overcome including finishing only fourth last time in the Grade 1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse (2m4f), but he was rattling home that day and would have won in a few more strides. He has to prove himself over the extra distance and, if he does, he could be seriously overpriced around 12/1. If there had been eight runners, he would have been my each way pick along with my win selection below.
Brown Advisory Chase Recent Winners
Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map
Ballyburn may make his own running but will perhaps more likely sit behind a stablemate (Lecky or Quai).
Brown Advisory Chase Selection
Ballyburn is a short price and generally I’m not a short odds player. However, I think he is a 10/11 maybe even 5/6 chance, and he is still odds against in a few places which I think represents value.
Suggestion: Back Ballyburn at odds against.
Matt's Tix Pix: Ballyburn on A, and a couple of alternates on B
The Coral Cup is one of my favourite races of the week to tackle, as there are some trends that can help us try and find the winner, but equally you’ve a chance of hitting something at a big ol’ price. Four of the last seven winners have gone off 20/1 or bigger, with 33/1 Heaven Help Us and 50/1 Commander Of Fleet among them, so this is a race that can throw up proper shocks.
It used to be the case that backing those towards the top end of the handicap lost money on a regular basis, but since the handicaps became more compressed that is no longer the case. The first five home last year all carried 11st or more, and the angle of a class dropper, despite having to carry a big weight, is one that should not be overlooked.
Ballyadam is a perfect case in point. He’s a Festival regular, having finished fifth in the 2023 County Hurdle (under 11-7) and then second to the, ahem, rejuvenated Langer Dan in this under the welter burden of twelve stone last year. He often mixes it at levels with the best of them, but can clearly operate when asked to give weight away to inferior horses despite age catching up with him. He’s lightly raced for a ten-year-old, and looks sure to give another good account of himself. A drop of rain Wednesday morning (some is forecast) would help his cause, too.
Just underneath Ballyadam on the racecard is Eagle Fang, and I’ve long thought he could be the type to go well in a race such as this. He was one of the picks of the paddock for the Fred Winter last year but blew out, Philip Enright going round the inside on heavy ground probably not helping his cause. I made him one to follow all the same and it didn’t take long for that faith to be repaid, when he came good at a big price at Punchestown in May.
He lost nothing in defeat to Home By The Lee in Grade 2 company at Navan in November and, off the back of that, connections tried their luck in the Grade 1 Long Walk at Ascot. Having looked like he might get involved for the places at one point his stamina rather gave way, and the combination of that and Grade 1 company ultimately proved too much. Nevertheless, he was only beaten nine lengths and on the figures had taken another step forward. It’s worth bearing in mind Oakley Brown was unable to claim his 5lb allowance there, which he will be able to do here, and having had a bit of a break since Ascot is no bad thing either. The worry is that a mark of 147 looks a touch too high so, for all I think he’ll run well, others make a shade more appeal.
At the front end of the market you simply cannot ignore Impose Toi, given Nicky Henderson’s record in the race (four winners) and owner JP McManus, notwithstanding that he throws plenty of darts at this, has had the winner three times and numerous others placed in the race. Impose Toi dotted up here (over two miles) a couple of seasons ago and at that stage all sorts of fancy entries were bandied about. He ran to a very similar level in two subsequent starts in hot handicaps. We’ve only seen him the once this year, when winning with something to spare over 2m4½f at Newbury, and this strong-travelling sort looks just the type to go well here. Cheekpieces go on, which I think is neither here nor there (it isn’t the negative it used to be perceived as in this race) and he has to go well, I feel.
And where is the daft each-way fiver at a silly price going? Look no further than Lossiemouth (not that one, the other one), a former Grade 2 winner for Tom Lacey who has come back from a long absence this season to run perfectly well for Polly Gundry in three competitive handicap hurdles, all around three miles. Now, I’m not totally convinced he stays that far, and this drop back in trip could be just what the doctor ordered. He shapes as if he retains most of his ability and a mark of 133 is fair and reflects where we are with him at present. He’ll be ignored in the market, but it would be no surprise to me if he hit the frame here.
Coral Cup Recent Winners
Coral Cup Pace Map
Loads of pace, headed by Maxxum and 'the other' Lossiemouth. Cards played late may be the answer tactically.
Coral Cup Selection
Impose Toi looks like he ought to go close and, at monster prices, 'the other' Lossiemouthcould give a run for each way money. Bag the extra places where you can.
Suggestion: Back Impose Toi to win at 9/1, and/or Lossiemouth each way at 40/1 or bigger.
3.20 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Cross Country reverts to being a handicap after eight renewals as a level-weights race, albeit it is now a 20lb limited handicap rather than the full 26lb.
The key to betting on the Cross Country is understanding the nature of the course. At Punchestown and Pardubice the cross-country tracks pre-date the conventional tracks but at Cheltenham it had to be shoehorned into the middle of the existing conventional courses in the 1990s.
The consequence is that the Cheltenham cross-country course is extremely tight and sharp. There are very few opportunities to gallop until the business end. As such, the skillset needed is to be able to negotiate the variety of obstacles, keeping on an even keel and then an ability to quicken when the sprint starts.
In consequence, they go slowly for much of the race and so it’s much easier for the classy horses to give the weight away. Three of the 11 renewals as a 26lb handicap were won by the top-weight – and that was when the race was contested by lower quality horses than it is today.
As a level-weights race it was dominated in recent years by ex-Grade 1 horses: if they took to the idiosyncratic test they had a huge advantage, outclassing the handicappers they were up against.
In the last five renewals if you’d applied a simple 1lb for 1 length approach, the winner would have won even if it had been a 20lb handicap. Given that it’s easier to give the weight away going so slowly, I think the top-weights are at an even bigger advantage than that ‘standard’ method suggests.
The question all season was who was going to realise that and continue to target their ex-Grade 1 horses at the race - and who was going to think that because it was a handicap they wouldn’t win and so wouldn’t run their ex-Grade 1 horses.
Gordon Elliott seems to have worked this out and, ground permitting, was always aiming Galvin at the race. He has won six of the last seven renewals and, whilst the fact it’s a handicap makes it harder for him, he is still the trainer to focus on. Gordon is 6/23 +3pt (15% ROI) so far. 13 of those 23 runners finished in the first three.
Even when it was a 26lb handicap the front of the market dominated – 8 of the 11 renewals were won by one of the first three in the market. Seven of the eight level-weights renewals did, too, and with much classier types in this than the old 2005-2015 handicap I’m expecting the front of the market to continue to dominate.
The ground was always going to be important. The Cross Country course doesn’t have the artificial drainage that the conventional tracks have but equally it’s harder to water. Cheltenham now can water it but there is only one race on it and they tend to do so sparingly to avoid fast ground rather watering for slow ground. As a result, it tends to ride more naturally. The weather gods have favoured Galvin with the ground due to be predominantly good to soft.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Recent Winners
*Handicap up to 2015, conditions race 2016-2024, reverted to a handicap in 2025. Abandoned in 2024.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map
This will be a jog then sprint affair, so the pace map is very much for information purposes only.
The Champion Chase is the pre-eminent speed test for top class chasers but, this year, it's a race shorn of many of its likelier lads, due to injury, poor form or that pesky Ryanair Chase. One bona fide star that will get the green (and gold) light is Jonbon, whose eleventh hour withdrawal twelve months ago robbed the race - and racing fans - of its main protagonist.
In his absence, Henry de Bromhead swooped to conquer with 17/2 shot Captain Guinness. The Captain defends his crown but has been in far less authoritative form this time around. Still, a glance at the Recent Winners section below attests to the folly of discounting a de Bromhead runner in the QMCC: he also won the race in 2021, 2017 and 2011. Guinness may be on many revellers' minds on Wednesday afternoon, but it's far more likely they're pondering another pint of the black stuff than a punt on a horse whose best run of three this term was a 26 length pasting by Solness.
Henry also runs Quilixios, a slightly bigger price even than Captain Guinness. A confirmed front runner, the former Triumph Hurdle winner is unlikely to have it all his way on the sharp end with, most notably, Solness expected to vie for early primacy. But his run behind Jonbon at Sandown in December's Tingle Creek gives him only a large hill, rather than a mountain, to climb to beat the fav.
We really ought to discuss Jonbon. Trained by Nicky Henderson, who saddled the Champion Chase winner in 1992, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2018 and 2019, a Jonbon victory would make him the outright winningmost trainer in the history of the race; and his lad is a shade of odds on to do it.
On any of a number of runs from this season and last, he is the best horse in the race. His jumping is usually assured, his run style is versatile and he has no ground allergies. So why isn't he shorter in the market? Well, come the hour and he might be; but, to this point, there have been murmurings of a Cheltenham issue as well as the fact that the Champion Chase has been a bridge too far for a plethora of shorties in recent times.
El Fabiolo, at 2/9, was the latest strong favourite to succumb last year, and was preceded by Shishkin (5/6) in 2022, Chacun Pour Soi (8/13) in 2021, Defi Du Seuil (2/5) in 2020, Douvan (2/9) in 2017, Un De Sceaux (4/6) in 2016, Sizing Europe (4/5) in 2012, Master Minded (4/5) in 2010, Well Chief (Evs) in 2007, Moscow Flyer (5/6) in 2004 and Flagship Uberalles (11/10) in 2000. Holy hotpots!
It should be said that 6/5 Energumene, 4/11 and Evs Altior, 1/4 Sprinter Sacre and 4/11 Master Minded all got it done in the same time window and it's well worth noting that three of that quintet were trained by Henderson. Only Shishkin from the 'naughty' list was sent from Seven Barrows.
Jonbon is a bit of a machine. He's won 17 of his 20 races, and been second on the other three occasions. Perhaps he's another to bet with the 'money back as free bet if second' concession with the tote. The three defeats were by a superlative Constitution Hill in an awe-inspiring Supreme in 2022; a rampant El Fabiolo (before that one lost the plot) in the Arkle of 2023; and - the only downright disappointment - in the re-routed Clarence House Chase last year (Ascot was unraceable so the race was staged at Cheltenham - Jonbon was beaten a neck at 1/4).
After a quiet but winning seasonal debut this campaign, the green and gold silks have sauntered to success twice more - both at Grade 1 level - and he just looks a man amongst veterans and juniors.
Energumene commands great respect as a two-time winner of the race, in 2022 and 2023 aged 8 and 9; but he missed the gig last year and is 11 now. True, that didn't stop Moscow Flyer rolling back the years when claiming his second Champion Chase in 2005 but the Flyer entered as the best horse in the race and was returned 6/4 favourite. Energumene is no longer the best in the field. Still, he's an 11-time winner from 14 starts and may have degenerated insufficiently to miss the podium.
A few of the Irish contenders have incestuous form lines. Solness came out on top, ahead of Marine Nationale, Quilixios and Captain Guinness in the Dublin Chase at DRF: having led from early in the race, he established a big advantage which was all but erased by MN approaching the last. But the runner up found less than anticipated while the winner found more than might have been expected. They were clear of the remainder. I do have a suspicion that Quilixios may have been under-cooked and also may have raced on the worst of the ground up the inner, where his rivals pretty much all took the high road close to the outer rail.
Prior to February's Dublin Chase, Solness had also beaten Marine Nationale by a similar margin in the Leopardstown Grade 1 at Christmas. There, Found A Fifty ran no sort of race and was pulled up. However, the last named was reported by the vet to have a dirty nose post-race rendering his effort a 'chuck out'. Earlier in the season, Found A Fifty had beaten Solness in the G2 Fortria Chase and had won over two and a half miles a fortnight prior in another Grade 2, that one on good ground.
Going back a little further, Gordon Elliott's charge got closest to a fully on song Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle at Cheltenham a year ago; so he handles quicker ground, has performed well at the Festival, and has two wins prior to a run that can be discounted from his three 2024/5 spins. He may be over-priced.
Beyond Jonbon, British hopes rest with Libberty Hunter. He was second in the G2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last month and has good Cheltenham handicap form on top of the ground. But this is a much bigger ask than handicaps for all that he was third in the Grade 1 Maghull at Aintree last spring.
Champion Chase Recent Winners
Champion Chase Pace Map
Quilixios and Solness, probably the latter, will go forward. Jonbon should sit just off that tempo with the rest expected to be more patiently ridden.
Champion Chase Selection
There is a weighty body of men (and women) who sailed to their wagering end due to the siren calls of short priced Champion Chase jollies, but some people never learn. Jonbon is clear of his field on any critical analysis of the form book and he looks a square enough price at close to even money as I write. That's obviously not a sexy price so each way alternatives are worth considering. I'm apprehensive of the Solness/Marine Nationale collateral, but appreciate I could have that wrong. Still, I don't want to bet something at 5/1 or so against what I think is a very solid favourite. Far better to have a tiny swing, either e/w or without the favourite, on either or both of Found A Fifty and/or Quilixios. Not much damage done if we miss at those sorts of prices.
Suggestion: Back Jonbon with the tote's 'money back as a free bet if second', and consider Found A Fifty or Quilixios in the 'without' and each way markets.
4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. A key feature of the Grand Annual is that it is a kinder race for prominent racers, whereas the stiffer New Course was a benefit for hold-up horses. This is evident in the 'Recent Winners' section below where, prior to 2014, hold up horses were the de facto play; but since then, it's been the front half of the field (and a few midfielders) which has held sway. Le Prezien's 2018 score from off the pace is a helpful reminder that nothing is assured when shortlisting, but the balance of favour has very much been to those with more behind than in front through the early fractions.
A glance at the 'Form' column below shows that recent winning form is not a prerequisite, and nor is a recent run. Ratings wise, most winners were between 136 and 147, give or take, and that's an area on which to focus.
Looking for those within the ratings band and who are generally ridden in the front half of the field, I'm left with Unexpected Party, Fringill Dike, The King of Prs, and Traprain Law.
Unexpected Party won the race by daylight last year and is only 6lb higher this time around. He represents the 'Dead-eye Dan' Skelton barn who have been so successful in Cheltenham Festival handicaps in recent years, and may go close again. Expect him to race more prominently than in recent outings: he was near the speed when galloping away from them twelve months ago.
Gavin Cromwell is another handler for whom the handicaps have been a rich source of joy, and he's represented by The King Of Prs (and also My Mate Mozzie and Midnight It Is). The King best fits my tenuous shortlist bill though form of 231 this season has done little to mask his level of ability. He ran in the race last year but couldn't go the early tempo and made mistakes before falling, all of which tempers enthusiasm considerable.
JP McManus likes to have a swing at this. As well as four winners in the past two decades, McManus has owned fully nine runners up (thanks to Paul Ferguson and his Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide for this cracking snippet). The green and gold livery will be singularly sported by So Scottish this season. Second to Stayers' Hurdle-bound The Wallpark in a Listed handicap hurdle on yielding ground at the Galway Festival last summer - two poorer efforts since - he's not run over fences since December 2023, when he fell in the December Gold Cup. He's obviously a strong stayer and connections, including trainer Emmet Mullins, are hugely respected; but this would be a fine training performance were he to win.
Since 2009 there have been nine Grand Annual winners returned 16/1 or bigger, including 66/1, 40/1 and 28/1 twice. In that spirit, I'm returning to my shortlist and Fringill Dike and Traprain Law. Fringill Dike is a good ground specialist, typically races prominently and comes here well rested; true, he may be overly well rested and we have to take fitness on trust. To that end, form off a 100+ day absence over obstacles reads 112 which helps keep the faith. He's won five of his nine chases and he's 66/1 - that makes him worth a very small each way guess.
Traprain Law hails from the Lucinda Russell yard that knows how to win staying handicap chases at the Festival. Whether she can repeat the dose over a 'sprint' trip is a different question, of course, but she may have a better chance than the market implies with this second season chaser. He's a perennial prominent racer and has sometimes appeared to be outpaced in the latter stages of his races; perhaps this expected much faster tempo will run the finish out of his rivals?
Since 2014, the last time out finishing position of Grand Annual winners, as a form string, reads 94P08212309. That may (or may not) be another nod to So Scottish, whose claims are obviously not obvious, if you see what I mean.
Grand Annual Recent Winners
Grand Annual Pace Map
Licketty split, no doubt. Expected to favour those in the first half to two-thirds of the field over the very late runners. Unless they go an absolute million. Which they might.
Grand Annual Selection
The 2025 Grand Annual is, as always, a very difficult puzzle to solve. In that spirit, I'll try one from the top and two massive Hail Mary's. So Scottish is as much about his connections as his recent form; but delving further back would make him attractively handicapped in his own right. If we're to have another 'skinner winner' it might be one of Traprain Lawor Fringill Dike, both of which seem well enough suited to the test with the important proviso that they might not be nearly good enough! They're worth 50p e/w to find out, though.
Suggestions: Try a small win bet on 10/1 So Scottish and even smaller each way bets on 25/1 Traprain Law and 66/1 Fringill Dike with all the extra places you can muster.
Willie Mullins had been quieter than usual on the bumper scene up until the Dublin Racing Festival since which he has fired in three rockets and inherited another, and has five runners in total, so he is short odds to add to his current haul of 13 wins in the race.
Significantly in a race restricted to 4-6yos, 11 of his successes were with 5yos (and he only got one of his two winning 6yos from Gordon Elliott a fortnight before Cheltenham) so as a 6yo that slightly puts me off Gameofinches, though Fact To File was the same age when second two years ago.
Patrick Mullins has chosen Copacabana instead so Paul Townend is on Gameofinches. A speed figures guru who I respect, Andy Holding, has Copacabana with the lowest time figure of the whole field so I’m struggling to be with him at the prices given that he is favourite, even if Ruby Walsh has been talking him up as the one that he likes of the Mullins runners for the last fortnight. He can win of course but it will be a very different tempo of race to the one that he won at Navan.
Relegate caused a surprise here eight years ago following up her win in the Grade 2 mares’ bumper at the DRF and BAMBINO FEVER is trying to do likewise.
Ratings are usually overlooked when discussing the Champion Bumper as punters seem to prefer the whispers but they shouldn’t be. With her mares’ allowance, although only the perceived third choice of Mullins’ quintet, she is joint-top rated on BHA figures. That’s interesting as eight of the last 22 winners were top rated by BHA (if including a mares’ allowance), including five of the last ten and most of them didn’t start favourite. We had two joint-top rated contenders in 2022 and they finished 1-2.
At the top of those ratings we have Kalypso’Chance (130) and Bambino Fever (130) ahead of Aqua Force (127) who has recently moved to Mullins so they have done very little with him to make a difference, Idaho Sun (126) as the best of the Brits for Harry Fry, Fortune De Mer (125), Gameofinches (124), Copacabana (123), He Can’t Dance (123), Sortudo (123) and Heads Up (123).
Jody Townend rode Bambino Fever at the DRF and keeps the ride. Patrick was never in line to ride as would struggle to do the weight so he didn’t reject her.
Gordon Elliott prepared Sir Gerhard before he was switched late on to Mullins and had the second and third last year to add to his two wins in the race and, with Windbeneathmywings ruled out for David Pipe last week, he provides the main market rival to Team Mullins in Kalypso’Chance who beat Heads Up at Navan in a bumper where Elliott has run some of what turned out to be his very best horses down the years. It niggles me though that after he won Elliott hinted he had a better one.
As highlighted earlier, the main home hope has to sit it out so that mantle is now transferred to No Drama This End according to the market: he beat a well-fancied Skelton horse at Warwick. Nicholls doesn’t mind having a shy at the Champion Bumper but the closest that he has got was Captain Teague who was third two years ago. The last time the Brits won was with Ballyandy nine years ago.
The Skelton team have been talking up Fortune De Mer who won at Cheltenham earlier this season and was then beaten under a penalty on a sharp track last time and they know the time of day with their bumper team so he could be best of the Brits.
In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.
Champion Bumper Recent Winners
Champion Bumper Pace Map
Pinch of salt pace map...
Champion Bumper selection
In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.
Suggestion: Back Bambino Fever each way
*
And that's a wrap on Day 2. My thanks again to the five judges who have kindly shared their thoughts. Remember, the value game is not about a winner a race but a profit at the end of the year - let's hope also at the end of this week!
Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Jonbon_Kingmaker_Warwick2023.png319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-10 14:47:362025-03-11 09:05:49Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
We're back! The 2025 Cheltenham Festival is here and, for those of us who have found patience for its arrival difficult, the great news is it starts ten minutes earlier! Yes, it's a 1.20pm kick off each day, moved from the traditional half-one slot, so don't tune in late...
After the success of recent big meeting previews, where the races have been divvied among a brains trust of racing judges, I'm joined by some estimable company for this year's Cheltenham Festival preview posts. They are:
Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.
David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.
Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.
Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.
Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.
They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?
Also, a quick reminder about our Tix competition where you can win £100 each day. Full details are in this post, including the rules, but basically the person who gets the highest odds winning ticket wins. That means it's a level playing field for small and large stakes players so everyone has the same chance of winning. Tix is here.
Let's get to it. Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start; do not oversleep.
1.20 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
The traditional curtain raiser. The roar of the crowd. It's become cliché to mention the roar but, if you've ever been on the side of that hill some time in the middle of the hour after 1pm, you'll know it's a real, almost palpable, spirit that manifests: 55,001+ individual exhortations merging into a single raucous cheer. Part relief that the waiting is over, part hope for what might come next, all expectation of a thrilling carnival of the horse... and they're off!
Hardly surprising, then, that in such a frenzied cauldron cool heads - whether connected above two or four legs - are tricky to find. Including the preliminaries, this is a twenty minute test of temperament as much as class, speed, agility and staying power. It is a thoroughly searching examination.
So who, and which, present themselves to the trial this time? In what is an almost exclusively Irish affair in 2025, with just two home challengers (one of those a triple digit price), in theory that makes assessing the form easier; there is no need to guess which of the cohorts separated by the Irish Sea might be ascendant. Here, at least, it will be the Irish on top. And yes, probably more generally so, too. Probably, but not definitely...
Current head boy is Kopek Des Bordes, unbeaten in three and rampant in a Grade 1 when last seen. On the bare form of that Dublin Racing Club score he's a few pounds ahead of the next best, for all that he'll likely need to find a little more to withstand the onslaught of this field, all of which are entitled to improve. That's the nature of races like the Supreme, as different from more workaday contests: it's not enough to know which horse has shown the best form so far - we must project to which might step forward the most under these conditions.
Think of it like this: Kopek Des Bordes begins the race with a few lengths' head start over the next most talented horse - on what we've seen to date let's call that one Romeo Coolio. Romeo in turn gets a couple of lengths on Salvator Mundi who is himself a couple in front of William Munny and Workahead. It's a staggered ability start.
But during the course of four minutes or so of racing much can change. Advantages can be whittled or extended, and as they collect beyond the jam stick at the top of the hill there will be a revised pecking order at least somewhere on the squash ladder.
Let's return to KdB. Yes, he was imperious at Leopardstown and, if your modus operandi is not to question but merely to punt in tune with the market, he's very likely to give you a stirring run for your rupees. But the value seeker has to furrow her brow, stroke his chin and scratch its head as she/he/it considers how each horse might get beaten, and how likely it is that they will be, before settling on a wager at the prevailing odds. For a majority of runners in all races, the most likely reason they'll be beaten is because they are not good enough. But that's not the only bullet to dodge.
Kopek Des Bordes is trained by Willie Mullins, a man with seven victories in this race, the first two of which returned 25/1 and 40/1. But those were in 1995 and 2007, and Willie is a little bit better known these days. His five subsequent winners, achieved between 2013 and 2021, all returned 6/1 or shorter and were all ridden by the first string jockey. So far, so Kopek - he certainly won't be beaten because of his connections.
But this fella has shown signs of immaturity in the past. On his first run this season, on St Stephen's/Boxing Day at Leopardstown, he over raced early and was clumsy at every single flight. He still won, comfortably, in a big field containing some smart novices. Perhaps it was just freshness after his summer layoff, and greenness on his first public hurdles outing.
He returned to that same venue five weeks later and was a new man, nearly. Still a little keen for much of the race, his jumping had been transformed and he was alert enough to dodge a loose horse crossing his path as it ran out. In the finish he laughed at this Grade 1 gang, many of which appeared credible contenders pre-race. It was a terrific performance and one that promises more when he learns to settle better.
If he is headstrong, he'll need to cope with a first trip outside Ireland; and with the Festival preamble, rarely more of a test than for the opening race; and with the anxiety of his rider down at the start (even the most experienced and calmest of pilots gets dem buttyflies circling by the tape). Frankly, he's expended so much nervous energy in his first two hurdle races without facing a serious challenge in the run to the line that expecting a boilover to change the result might be wishful thinking. But if there is a chink in his armour, that's the prime suspect.
Who else? What about Romeo Coolio? Trained by Gordon Elliott, who tends to swerve the DRF with his A listers, Romeo was second in the Champion Bumper here last year (travelling, check) and won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novices' Hurdle at Christmas (class, check). He's also shown form on soft through to good to yielding turf (going, check). It was a taking performance in slamming Bleu De Vassy by nine lengths in the G1 but the horses he beat were thumped by Kopek Des Bordes over the same track and trip in February. He looks reliable but perhaps hasn't got quite the upside of the favourite. And the former Deloitte Hurdle that Kopek won has a much better track record in Supreme terms than the Future Champions.
Salvator Mundi has had a tall reputation ever since chasing home Sir Gino in France, both horses subsequently purchased by the Donnelly's. He ran a midfield race on his UK debut, in the Triumph Hurdle no less, and didn't race in Ireland until May of last year when he picked up a maiden hurdle in a field of 13 by... checks notes... 62 lengths! It's fair to say that was an extremely moderate contest in this context so what happened next? Salvator went to Punchestown for the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in mid-January and won by three lengths. His performance there - pulled hard, jumped poorly - was reminiscent of Kopek Des Bordes' seasonal debut; if he can improve a similar amount, in form and comportment terms, he's clear second best and has a chance to derail his more illustrious stablemate. If.
The last two winning trainers in the race were Henry de Bromhead and Barry Connell, both of whom have had the horrible misfortune to be touched (or in Henry's case, gripped) by tragedy in recent years. De Bromhead bids to repeat last year's success with the unexposed Workahead. Winner of a point on his debut in January 2023 (form has some substance), he was off then until early December last year when running third in a huge field behind Jasmin De Vaux. He came on for that effort in clearing away, by seven lengths from William Munny, in a maiden at Christmas.
William Munny, representing Connell, whose 2023 winner Marine Nationale was ridden by the late Michael O'Sullivan, so tragically lost and in whose memory the race is now named, has run twice since defeat to Workahead: a close second to the now injured Kawaboomga and then an easy win in Listed company last month. Neither of those runs quite match up to Workahead's performance in beating him, and Henry's horse has much the greater scope to improve. The 75 day layoff is a bit of a concern but de Bromhead knows what he's doing when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.
We're getting into the longer grass now with the likes of Irancy and Karbau, Mullins 'also engaged' types. Both are unexposed albeit with a more ordinary level of form, and neither make much appeal given Willie's first string record in this race.
Closest to Kopek Des Bordes at Leopardstown was Karniquet, who I quite fancied for the County Hurdle. Instead, he's been declared here and, though I bet him months ago, I'm behind the current price and don't fancy him one bit in this company. Funiculi Funicula is the final string to Willie's hirsute bow and he comes here off a Clonmel maiden score, which is like getting going from the springboard at your local baths to cliff diving in Mexico: good luck with that project.
There are two home contenders, comfortably the more likely of the duo being Tripoli Flyer. He was a good winner of the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, form that is solid but not spectacular. Connections initially suggested he'd miss the Cheltenham party, but here he is and it feels a bit of an afterthought. Likeable chap all the same. Tutti Quanti and Henry's other runner, Sky Lord, might need to start now to have a winning chance.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Pace Projection
More Willie's out front than an am dram production of Hot Fuzz.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection
This revolves around Kopek Des Bordes. He seems sure to be on the premises assuming he doesn't boil over and he might be almost (almost!) a bet to nothing with the 'money back (as free bet) if second' books. A value alternative is Workahead, lightly raced but with very good form in the book already. He jumps well, looks a strong stayer and has the scope to step forward a fair bit.
Suggestion: Back Kopek Des Bordes with the 'money back if second' concession. And/or try Workahead each way at 8/1 or bigger.
Matt's Tix Pix:Tix is a smart multi-race bet placement tool that is free to use. In this race, I'll have the favourite on A and a couple of alternatives, as well as unnamed favourite on B.
I have not been able to find an Arkle bet all season.
And I’m still struggling, with Majborough being a strong favourite that is hard to oppose after impressing in both chase starts this season, and also having already won at the Festival when taking last season’s Triumph. Some will point to no five-year-old having won the Arkle since the weight allowance was eradicated but none of those since Voy Por Ustedes were in Marlborough’s class and he won a four-year-old championship despite Mullins stating he looked more like a three-mile chaser. He looks correctly priced at 4/7 to finally give J P McManus a first Arkle winner and Willie Mullins his seventh in 11 years.
So, I have been waiting for a 'without Majborough' market to emerge for some inspiration for a bet and we have just four to choose from (would have been three but for the jettisoning of the Turners). They are headed by L’Eau Du Sud who is 4-4 over fences including landing the Grade 1 Henry VIII and two Grade 2s at Warwick and here over course and distance.
And that Cheltenham win was where I thought he jumped the best of his four wins. I doubt he was fully wound up at Warwick where he won the race early after kicking on five out. Too early as it turned out as Rubaud almost caught him, that one having won the Pendil since, so I’m fancying Harry Skelton to hold L’Eau Du Sud up this time and ride him to have one go at Majborough; that is also the best way to ride him if they want to guarantee good prize money for the Trainers’ Championship and David Power Cup which is also in their minds. I’m sure Dan left plenty to work on fitness-wise in the Kingmaker.
Personally, I think the best chance they have of beating Majborough is to sit on his outside and put the jolly’s jumping under pressure, as he made niggly errors at three fences down the back straight and there are two extra fences to be jumped in the Arkle over a sharper test of speed and a shorter race. Will they do that, or prefer to ride him patiently and pounce late?
I fancy that Jango Baie is a better horse than L’Eau Du Sud but can he be as effective as the grey over two miles? Without a doubt, he’d be in the Turners over 2m4f if that race still existed. A Grade 1 winning novice hurdler rated 8lb higher than Dan Skelton’s charge over hurdles, he too jumped Cheltenham very well when winning in December, and the runner-up Springwell Bay is now rated 154 after winning since so two big ticks there. Narrowly beaten by Handstands last time in sticky ground, where Nico was kind of looking after him with the spring in mind, even over two miles I’d expect him to improve on that effort. Can he give Nicky Henderson an eighth win in the race?
Touch Me Not is expected to make the pace but having been beaten by L’Eau Du Sud at Sandown by 3¾l (made a bad mistake at half-way though didn’t lose much momentum) and Majborough at Leopardstown by 9l, it’s hard to make an argument why he can cause an upset and many would rather see him in the Grand Annual instead. On a literal line through him, Majborough has over 5l in hand over L’Eau Du Sud.
More interesting of the two outsiders is Only By Night with her 7lb mares’ allowance, which Put The Kettle On took advantage of to win the 2020 Arkle. She would be half the odds (or even more) if running in the Mares’ Chase so this is a bold move from her connections but they know she is fully effective at 2m whereas 2m4f wasn’t a guarantee on Friday. A fine jumper and a big, scopey mare, she has taken off for going chasing.
Arkle Recent Winners
Arkle Pace Projection
Touch Me Not will probably unwittingly make the pace for Majborough, with the likes of L'Eau du Sud expected to play later. It's possible Nico tries to use Jango Baie's stamina and goes for home mid-race.
Arkle Chase Selection
In short, all markets including the Without-fav market look bang on so I can’t find an Arkle bet. Sorry! Better luck tomorrow!
Suggestion: No bet.
Matt's Tix Pix: Maj banker on A, with some 'just in case' C cover.
2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)
Previewed by Dave Renham.
The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and in these types of races I use past race trends at Cheltenham as an important part of my narrowing the field process.
This is a race where British trainers have dominated, with no Irish winner since Tony Martin’s Dun Doire in 2006. However, the Irish are targeting the race more than they have done in the past having had seven runners in 2022 and eight last year. This year there are five Irish-trained entries with Malina Girl the shortest priced at around the 12/1 mark.
Looking at the British challenge Lucinda Russell won the Ultima in 2022 and 2023 with Corach Rambler. Prior to that she saddled four other runners, priced 20/1, 28/1, 16/1 and 25/1, finishing 4th, 4th, 5th and 6th respectively. This time, she runs Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown. The O’Neill yard have had three wins and four placed runners from 25 starters although their last win was back in 2014. Their sole entry this year is Crebilly. David Pipe, who runs King Turgeon, has also enjoyed three winners as well as the runner up in 2022.
Time to dig into other past trends.
23 of the last 25 winners finished in the first six last time out (LTO), with the two wins from those 7th or worse coming at a cost of 163 runners.
From a market perspective 19 of the 25 winners came from the top five in the betting, including 11 of the last 12.
56% of all runners have been Irish-bred yet they have provided the winner 84% of the time (21 times). Irish-breds have outperformed all other countries of breeding in the place market, too, hitting 22% compared with 15%.
Other positives include a LTO market rank in the top four of the betting, and having one to three career chase wins.
Looking at weight carried there is a roughly even split between the top half of the weights and the bottom half.
Age wise seven- and eight-year-olds have provided 64% of the winners from 46% of the runners so there would be a marginal preference for those compared to other ages.
The two that tick all of the main trends boxes are The Changing Man and Broadway Boy.
The Changing Man easily won a weak-looking renewal of the Reynoldstown last time but, more importantly for me, his previous three runs when second each time came in top notch handicaps. Detractors could argue why should he suddenly break that run of seconds in handicaps, but it is hard to see him out of the frame.
Broadway Boy is well fancied by the stable and this has been the target. Yes, he does have a couple of negatives – the 0 from 32 stable record in the race (last 25 years), and his disappointing run last time at Cheltenham. However, the yard has rarely had fancied runners in this race (just three sent off at single figure odds) and there were valid excuses for his most recent poor run. His other Cheltenham form is excellent, comprising three wins, a second and a third from five other starts. He likes to race up with the pace and so should stay out of trouble.
While discussing run style this race has seen hold up horses as the most successful group in the past 25 years. However, in the more recent past the Ultima has seemingly started to favour prominent racers. The pace map is below.
The main competition for the lead with Broadway Boy looks likely to be in the shape of Myretown – hopefully they won’t take each other on too early.
Horses that join The Changing Man and Broadway Boy on my shortlist include Henry’s Friend. He ticks most of the trends and had a good win last time out. He jumps well and he should be close to the pace. Whistle Stop Tour also matches most of the trends and, as mentioned earlier, his trainer Lucinda Russell knows how to get her runners right for this one. A horse at a bigger price that I can see running well is Famous Bridge. He came fourth last year and, although 3lb higher now, his last run at Haydock was impressive albeit over further. With several bookies offering six places his price of around 18/1 offers each way punters an option.
My final piece of number-crunching is that, looking at the past 10 years, if backing all horses in the top five of the betting ‘blind’ one would have secured an ROI of 57% to SP and 78% to BSP. A good profit would have been achieved if backing all qualifiers to place on the exchange. You'll not be surprised, therefore, to see four of my shortlisted runners near the head of the market.
Ultima Recent Winners
Ultima Pace Projection
An even looking tempo overall, though a lot of perennially prominent racers may push things on from the start.
Ultima Handicap Chase Selection
Suggestion: Try Broadway Boy win only at 15/2
Matt's Tix Pix: A's and B's and not straying far from the top of the market.
The race which has changed complexion most since confirmations is the Mares’ Hurdle, starting with the supplementary entry of William Hill (Schweppes for those over 55) Hurdle winner Joyeuse, followed by a surprise (to many) switch for Lossiemouth, who we’d been told was definitely on track for the Champion Hurdle; and, at the last minute, Golden Ace, definitely on track for this according to Jeremy Scott, jumped into the Champion Hurdle instead.
All that to-ing and fro-ing means the ante-post betting needs treating with caution, and if you’re worried that your pre-confirmations pick is now drifting, that’s only to be expected thanks to the influence Lossiemouth will have on the market. Whether she will have the same impact in the race is the big question, and my gut instinct was that switching her was a sign that Willie Mullins wasn’t happy enough with her wellbeing to think she could win or run well in a Champion Hurdle. If that’s the case it could be argued that she is too short, at around 4/6, for this race. Whatever race you’re running in at the Festival, you can’t afford to be short of your peak even if the ratings suggest otherwise.
The counterpoint to the above argument was put forward by Ruby Walsh on Paddy Power’s FTHM podcast on Sunday when he said the switch was simply a case of Paul Townend wanting to ride Lossiemouth. Had she run in the Champion, Townend would have ridden State Man, but he’d also rather ride Lossiemouth than Jade de Grugy in this race and hence the decision was made to switch target. You don’t have to believe that story, but it’s there for you to mull over in any case, having implications for the chances of both Lossiemouth and the original ante-post favourite.
Aside from the argument as to her wellbeing and how a heavy fall at Leopardstown last time will have affected her, there is also the debate about what Lossiemouth achieved 12 months ago. Beating Telmesomethinggirl, Hispanic Moon and Lantry Lady (beaten a total of 169 lengths in their four completed starts since) is not the performance it was cracked up to be at the time. She is a grand mare, but definitely a little overrated in some quarters, and her run behind Constitution Hill at Kempton is a fair guide to her ability. A repeat of that might be just enough to win this, but she doesn’t really appeal at her odds-on quote.
Jade de Grugy has undeniable form claims having won a Grade 1 as a novice, and she was visually impressive in winning the Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown on her belated return. I think there’s an element of recency bias in the way she’s been catapulted to the head of the market, and she has been shunned by Paul Townend which is hardly a boost to backers’ confidence. She is still a trifle short in the betting on balance based on the generic drift in the field when Lossiemouth was declared, although she may get bigger on the day. On the other hand, it’s not easy to make a strong case for the same connections’ Gala Marceau, who was disappointing at Warwick behind Royale Margaux, with a blunder two out incidental in the grand scheme.
Joyeuse was supplemented for this after winning the William Hill Hurdle impressively off a mark of 123, but even if you take the view she had a stone in hand that day she would still have something to find at this level, and it should be borne in mind that she had no other options at Cheltenham having failed to qualify for the handicaps.
July Flower has shown smart form in France, with the pick of her efforts a third in the French Champion Hurdle behind Losange Bleu and Hewick last May. She’s disappointed in two UK starts, pulling too hard, but settled better when winning on her return for Henry de Bromhead in the Grade 3 Kerrymount Mares’ Hurdle over an extended 2m3f at Leopardstown in late December, beating Kala Conti and Jetara by 4 lengths and 16 lengths, respectively.
July Flower was well ridden to score in the Kerrymount, Rachael Blackmore sitting a little way off the strong pace set by Lot of Joy and Jetara before closing up from halfway and expending her energy more efficiently than the leaders. Kala Conti was closer to that pace and made her bid for home earlier than ideal but was still only four lengths adrift of July Flower in second at the line. Kala Conti was conceding 5lb to the winner on the day, and I would rate her higher on the figures for that contest, as would most conventional handicappers.
The Leopardstown form looked good at the time and has been franked by subsequent black-type wins for Jetara and World of Fortunes, while Lot of Joy, beaten 48 lengths there, finished much closer to Jade de Grugy in the Quevega last month.
Mares' Hurdle Recent Winners
Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection
No obvious pace angle and it might be that Lossiemouth makes her own running to keep it simple and safe.
Mares' Hurdle Selection
If there is one mare who is unexposed and capable of improvement at this trip, it’s KALA CONTI, who was racing beyond 2m for the first time in the Kerrymount and arguably produced a career-best effort, although it’s worth pointing out that her defeat of Kargese and Nurburgring in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown last season is a pretty warm piece of form, as is finishing within half a length of Majborough in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at the same track 13 months ago. Or even a second-place finish behind the much-vaunted Anzadam when carrying a 5lb penalty in the Grade 3 Willowwarm Hurdle earlier this season.
Gordon Elliott has not been shouting Kala Conti from the rooftops, but her form credentials are there in plain sight, and her price has consistently failed to reflect those claims, perhaps because she was expected in some quarters to head to the Coral Cup. At one stage, July Flower was 5/1 for this while Kala Conti was 25/1 and while the differential is smaller now, I would argue strongly that it’s Kala Conti who should be the shorter price of the pair. As such, she represents perhaps the best each-way value of the week in the Championship and quasi-championship races at the meeting.
Suggestion: Back Kala Conti each way at around 16/1.
Matt's Tix Pix: Lossie and Jade on A, plus a few B's here in search of a result, I think.
The highlight on day one is unquestionably the Champion Hurdle and, for what it lacks in quantity of runners, it more than compensates through their sheer quality. The last two winners of the race return and will be joined by a mare in receipt of seven pounds and who put up arguably the performance of the season. Let's get to the details.
The 2024 winner was State Man, a first since 2016 for Willie Mullins, and he defends his crown after a somewhat middling campaign by his own lofty standards. A narrow defeat to Brighterdaysahead on seasonal debut was perfectly reasonable and promised a step forward next time. However, while that first to second run improvement has been a feature of Mullins' top class team this term, State Man was thumped by 31 lengths at the hooves of the same mare when they reacquainted in the Neville Hotels Hurdle (G1). Between the pair, a length and a quarter ahead of State Man, was 10-year-old (now 11) Winter Fog, sent off at 66/1; and only a length and a half behind State Man was 200/1 shot Fils d'Oudairies.
The winning time was good but not great, and that all leads to me being pretty suspicious of the merit of the winner's performance: like the race time, I feel it was good but not great. Could it have been very tacky ground that day, favouring those on the speed and perhaps conditions State Man hated? Or was State Man just bang out of sorts. It's a stretch to believe that both horses ran their races and the mare's winning margin extended by more than thirty lengths!
Obviously, if you take that form literally - and at least one extremely good judge and former multiple top jockey at the meeting is doing just that - then you'd have to think Brighterdaysahead wins the Champion Hurdle. She had a pacemaker there and the same horse, King Of Kingsfield, will do her donkey work again here. I wasn't overly impressed with her jumping that day and we've not seen her since - though that's fairly typical for Gordon Elliott to skip the Dublin Racing Festival, the obvious stepping stone between Christmas and Cheltenham.
State Man did win last time, at the DRF, where he beat Daddy Long Legs (who?) by six lengths after Lossiemouth paid for a poor jump at top speed when she and State Man were having at it from the get go. The winner was entitled to tire after his early exertions, and his score would be considered hugely inefficient in sectional terms; still, sometimes you gotta win ugly if you wanna win (and sometimes you gotta write ugly if you wanna entertain - yuk). The victory did little for the winner's Champion Hurdle prospects bar knock a rival out of the reckoning and perhaps restore a touch of his shattered confidence. He's not been the same Man this season.
It's high time we introduced the top billing, Constitution Hill. Forced to miss last year's Blue Riband due to the ailment that struck the Seven Barrows yard of trainer Nicky Henderson, he's back and bouncing again this term. There's been plenty of chat about how he's 'better than ever', a claim which is both highly likely untrue and also completely moot. His form in winning four times, three of them Grade 1's, since his 2023 Champion Hurdle success has been at a notably lower - in the order of ten to 15 pounds - level. And yet it's still better than Brighterdaysahead's, barring that one 'too good to be true?' run.
Henderson's record in the race is peerless: his nine wins bests Willie's five, with Elliott yet to register. Moreover, Henderson had won four of the seven renewals between Annie Power's 2016 triumph and State Man's last year for the Closutton squad - a race in which the Brit had the clear favourite before his withdrawal.
This season Constitution Hill ran Lossiemouth off her legs early in Kempton's G1 Christmas Hurdle before that mare battled on gamely to go down by only two and a half lengths; and he then showed up for the G2 International Hurdle on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham. That was essentially a regulation canter but proved his wellbeing, a sentiment affirmed by an excellent public workout at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. The 'vibes' then are strong with this one.
Burdett Road has been nine lengths behind Constitution Hill (bad blunder at the second last stopped him being a little closer) and was apparently outstayed by Golden Ace in the Kingwell last time. That mare, herself a Cheltenham Festival winner twelve months ago when beating Brighterdaysahead no less in a muddling Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle, will need to travel at a much quicker tempo this time - but she's at least showing better form as the spring arrives. Her greater proven stamina ought to see her finish in front of Burdett Road again.
The rest are very unlikely to be good enough and any of them winning would be one of the shocks of all time at the Festival.
Champion Hurdle Recent Winners
Champion Hurdle Pace Projection
A slightly misleading pace map as King Of Kingsfield is expected to push the pace for ownermate Brighterdaysahead. Burdett Road is a customary forward goer, too.
Champion Hurdle Selection
A small field race between classy but largely exposed horses does not generally a value proposition make. This comes down to how highly you rate the performance of Brighterdaysahead in battering several of her Champion Hurdle rivals, notably State Man, in that Christmas Grade 1 at Leopardstown. Anything like a literal interpretation means she's the play for you. But she's not the play for me, except with Tote's generous 'money back as a free bet if second' offer. I can't have State Man on his form this season and will consider it one of Willie's finest achievements if he can pull this rabbit out of the hat.
No, it's Constitution Hill for me. I respect the mare, especially in receipt of 7lb (a concession I don't particularly respect in G1's), but I want to see the former heavyweight champion reclaim his belt. Betting wise he's not my sort of price but I have included him in a few 'muggy' accas.
Suggestion: Bet Brighterdaysahead with the tote 'money back as free bet if second' concession. I don't think she'll beat Constitution Hill, but if I've underestimated that demolition job last time then she looks just about a free hit against Constitution Hill. Call it an emotional hedge if you like: my heart is all in on Connie.
4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Hallgarten & Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, to you and me) is a tough race for juveniles, usually completely different from anything they’ve contested before.
One of the key attributes is experience. Whilst experience in lots of hurdles race helps, it can also show your hand to the handicapper. In France there is a three-year-old season in the spring and horses benefit from experience over time there. They learn at home as well as at the track and the early start horses get in France can be a big advantage.
Horses that began in National Hunt races in France are 8/88 for +59 (66% ROI).
Murciahas a good profile, then, having begun in France more than a year ago and racing four times by early June, after which she was sold to join Willie Mullins.
Her first run for Willie was in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown at Christmas where she bombed out, beaten 22l in 8th. However, Jeff Kidder (2021 Fred Winter winner) was last of seven, and Aramax (2020 winner) was well beaten when falling in that Grade 2.
Juveniles, even more so than older novices, can improve hugely through the season - or regress as they develop physically. It’s always as well to be cautious about form in the autumn and at Christmas, as it often gets reversed come the spring.
Not many Festival handicaps have a key trial as the conditions races often do. However, there is a rated hurdle at Naas in February which was run for the first time in 2017 and is building up a strong profile as a springboard for Fred Winter winners.
The previous eight renewals of the Naas race have produced four Fred Winter winners, three of which were doing the double. Overall, runners from it are 4/17 +26 (153% ROI), with 3 of the 13 losers placed. In addition, Lark In The Mornin was declared at Naas last year but became a non-runner on the day, before winning the Fred Winter. This very much looks the race used by top Irish yards to prep for the Fred Winter.
This year Murcia looked green and her jumping was novicey but she finished really strongly to be beaten just a neck. She will have to be much more professional if she is to cope with the hurly-burly of a 22-runner juvenile handicap where they tend to go a strong gallop for the quality of the race. There’s the risk that it’s all too much for her and she bombs out but the reward is that she is open to stacks of improvement if she can put it all together – connections seem to think she’ll love the drying ground.
Those four Naas runners won the Fred Winter off 125 (Jazzy Matty), 137 (Brazil), 138 (Aramax) & 139 (Band Of Outlaws). Murcia has a mark of 133 in Ireland and the BHA handicapper has added 3lb so she’ll be running off 136, very similar to three of the previous winners from the Naas trial.
Fred Winter Hurdle Recent Winners
Fred Winter Hurdle Pace Projection
Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle selection
Suggestion: Back Murcia at 10/1 or bigger (Matt Tombs)
Matt's Tix Pix: Five on A, and five more on B. At least!
5.20 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)
Previewed by David Massey.
Well, it’s a new look for an old Festival favourite this year, with the National Hunt Chase now a 0-145 handicap and not restricted to amateur riders anymore. As such, trends are hardly worth bothering with, although a trainer that’s had a few placed in the race before - David Pipe - has one here that just about heads my list up.
Gericault Roque has the look of one laid out for this. It seems almost ridiculous that a horse that finished second to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima is still a novice, but here we are, seven runs later and no wins. But you can hardly argue with his form in big-field handicaps; second in a Mandarin, second in a Classic at Warwick, third in a Coral Gold Cup. It all stacks up.
He came back from a 26-month absence to run really well at Windsor 53 days ago. I was there on the day, my paddock notes reading “looks okay given the long absence, will come on but by no means unfit” and the way he ran in the race suggested those observations were close to the mark. He faded out of contention from two out but was far from disgraced in getting beaten less than ten lengths at the finish.
Wisely given time to recover from that run, he has the right profile for this and, with an extra place on offer, he looks a very solid each-way selection.
The winner of that Windsor race, Herakles Westwood, would be my back-up selection at the current prices. He’s always felt to me like a thorough stayer and, after the Windsor win, went to Newbury and confirmed that opinion by staying on all the way to the line over three miles, finishing third. I think a marathon distance could be right up his street, Harry Cobden in the saddle only a positive. I’ll throw a few quid at the forecast as well, just in case that’s the piece of form that unlocks this puzzle.
As far as the Irish contingent go, the race that the market believes will throw up the winner is the beginners' chase at Navan in January, won by the classy Three Card Brag with Captain Cody finishing third and Now Is The Hour fourth. Both runners headed here are unexposed over fences and, for a horse that was a Grade 2 winner over the smaller obstacles, Now Is The Hour looks to have a very workable mark off 139, with similar comments applying to Captain Cody off 140 (also a Grade 2 hurdles winner) - but I’m not telling you anything the market isn’t. Both will have been readied for this, and I couldn’t put you off.
November winner Transmission is another obvious one, with Neil Mulholland booking Patrick Mullins again (you did know you don’t have to book an amateur didn’t you, Neil?) but again, the market has him well found.
National Hunt Chase Recent Winners
NB This race was a non-handicap before 2025.
National Hunt Chase Pace Projection
National Hunt Chase Selection
The more I look at the race the more I think Gericault Roque is pretty much nailed on to run a good race, and he's my main selection. I also think he’ll be well-backed on the day, going off single figures, so anything 10/1 and up looks worth taking.
Selection: Back Gericault Roque each way at 10/1
*
Those are the seven head scratchers on Day 1 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and how our assembled panel of experts see them. As with punting more generally, it's got to be fun first, profit second (the two not being mutually exclusive, of course); so if you've enjoyed the read, you're a winner already!
Stay lucky
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/ConstitutionHill_UnibetHurdle_CheltenhamTrialsDay2025.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-10 07:26:452025-03-10 17:38:32Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day One Preview, Tips
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