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Royal Ascot 2024: Day 4 (Friday) Preview, Tips

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And so to the fourth and final quarter of the geegeez.co.uk daily race previews, Friday, Day 4. Two Group 1's, led out by the relatively new Commonwealth Cup and followed up with a cracking Coronation Stakes, are the features but there's plenty to go at from start to end, beginning with the...

2.30 Albany Stakes (6f, Group 3, 2yo fillies)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

It's hard to believe we've already reached the fourth day of Royal Ascot — time certainly flies when you're having fun. This is my final day of previewing a daily race for Geegeez, and I've genuinely enjoyed it. I hope you've found my musings on the various contests both insightful and enjoyable.

On Wednesday, I tipped a 20/1 winner for Victor Value subscribers. Interestingly, if I hadn’t been previewing the juvenile races for this site, I probably wouldn’t have even looked at that race. So I owe a big thanks to Matt Bisogno for pushing me in the two-year-old direction. [You're welcome, John - just wish I'd given you the Windsor Castle for Wednesday! - Ed.]

Today, let's talk about the Albany Stakes, a prestigious Group 3. Here are some key details about the race: Run over six furlongs the Albany Stakes was inaugurated in 2002, making it one of the newer races at the Royal Ascot meeting. Initially classified at Listed level, it was promoted to Group 3 status in 2005, reflecting its growing importance and quality of participants.

Over the years, several winners of the Albany Stakes have gone on to achieve greater success in their racing careers, enhancing the race's reputation as a launchpad for future champions. For instance, the last two winners, Porta Fortuna (2023) and Meditate (2022), both went on to achieve Group 1 success. Winning or performing well in the Albany Stakes can significantly enhance the reputation and value of a filly, both in terms of racing and breeding potential.

The Albany Stakes continues to maintain its status as a key early-season race for two-year-old fillies.

Key Trends (Last 5 Years):

Last Time Out Track: Naas – 2 winners from 5 runners +40, 3 places

Last Time Out Placing: 1st - 5 winners from 86 runners, 15 places (non-winners last time are 0 from 33 runners, 4 places)

Key Contenders:

Fairy Godmother

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Fairy Godmother built on her debut promise by defeating five rivals in the Group 3 Fillies' Sprint Stakes at Naas last time. The daughter of Night Of Thunder is bred to be speedy and sets a high standard.

Heavens Gate

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Heavens Gate won a Curragh maiden over the distance 26 days ago. Like Fairy Godmother, she is open to further improvement. She has the rail draw in stall 17.

Mountain Breeze

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Mountain Breeze looked impressive when winning at Newmarket last month. The daughter of Lope De Vega is now two from two and is poised for a big run, posing the main threat to the favourite in my view.

California Dreamer

Trainer: Adrian Murray. California Dreamer finished a length third to Fairy Godmother at Naas. This was a significant improvement from her Dundalk debut, indicating she has more to offer, although beating Fairy Godmother will be tough.

Twafeeg

Trainer: Archie Watson. Twafeeg showcased her speed by winning on debut at Doncaster 20 days ago. There is more to come from her, and an Archie Watson juvenile should never be underestimated at Royal Ascot.

Simmering

Trainer: Ollie Sangster. Simmering showed plenty of promise on her debut at York, finishing third behind Arabie, who has since won a Group 3 at Chantilly. Sent off the 3/1 favourite at York she must have been showing plenty at home. While beating top contenders like Fairy Godmother and Mountain Breeze will be tough, Simmering has room for plenty of improvement. With Jamie Spencer on board, she could get into the places.

Albany Stakes Verdict:

Fairy Godmother sets a high bar and will be tough to beat, but Mountain Breeze is also a strong contender and should provide a stern challenge. Twafeeg, coming off a recent win at Doncaster, has solid each-way claims. The most intriguing runner in the line-up is Simmering, who arguably has the most potential for improvement among the 17 fillies.

Betting Advice:

My idea of the winner is Fairy Godmother and 13/8 looks a fair price about her chance but if you’re looking for an each-way play at big odds I would consider Simmering if you can get 25/1 and four places.

Simmering: £2 each way – 25/1 @ bet365 (paying four places)

 

3.05 Commonwealth Cup (6f, Group 1, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

Introduced in 2015, this six furlong Group 1 for three-year-olds only is a terrific addition to the Royal Ascot menu. It's been a slot where failed Classic aspirants have rediscovered their top class mojo over a more suitable trip; and where genuinely fast horses can show their (go faster) stripes. In its nine years to date, no trainer has taken the prize more than once, and no horse has returned greater than 12/1 in spite of big fields being commonplace.

Sheikh Obaid has a strong hand with, at time of writing, the first two in the betting. Inisherin was supplemented at some expense, even by a Sheikh's standard, after an easy score in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. He'd previously led the 2000 Guineas field to the quarter pole before the lactic acid kicked in and he checked out. Remarkably, and atypically, he'd never run shorter than a mile prior to the Haydock race. That's a bit of a question mark given it was soft ground there, and so more of an emphasis on stamina, whereas it will be fast turf here. Moreover, leading against milers who are saving something for the final two furlongs is different from trying to best the fastest and classiest speedsters of his generation. He has an obvious chance to win but looks opposable at the prices.

Arrow number two in Sheikh Obaid's quiver is Elite Status, who lived up to his name when hacking up in a Listed race over this trip at Newbury last time. Trained by Karl Burke, who has trained a Commonwealth Cup winner, he's had plenty of experience, with four wins from seven starts thus far. They include a second Listed score as well as a Group 3 but he was thumped in both the Prix Morny and Middle Park (both G1) at the end of last season. You could argue that he was over the top for them, but it is also not unreasonable to take a less charitable view of those no shows. Perhaps he's not quite at this level.

Jasour was beaten in that same brace of top level two-year-old sprints, and also bookended those heavy defeats with Pattern class wins: in his case he preceded them with a G2 victory and debuted this campaign with a G3, over course and distance in the trial race to boot. That was a notable career best and it's perfectly plausible that he's improved plenty from two to three. This, of course, will be the acid test. His trainer, Clive Cox, has, like Burke, won this race before so knows the formula.

Third to Big Evs and Valiant Force, both 2023 Royal Ascot winners, in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, Starlust showed there that he could handle very fast ground. He was staying on over that turning five furlongs but has beaten plenty of times (eight, to be exact, from a dozen starts). Moreover, his best form is mostly at the minimum and he looks exposed in comparison with some of his rivals. That said, he does bring the highest official rating into the race, his 114 being earned with a nine pounds hike for an easy handicap verdict last time.

Givemethebeatboys was due to run in that Breeders' Cup race but was scratched by the Santa Anita vets the day before the race, a deeply frustrating experience for all involved, no doubt. Before then, he'd run creditably in the Phoenix and Middle Park Stakes, and holds Elite Status and Jasour on literal analyses of that form. He began 2024 with a Listed win at Navan before just failing to pass the intended but now absent Bucanero Fuerte in a Naas Group 3 last time. This stiff six looks ideal though he'll need to improve a good bit.

Archie Watson has an excellent record at Royal Ascot - three wins last year, just failed in the Coventry over course and distance on Tuesday - and saddles Evade, winner of the 7f Surrey Stakes last time. Trained prior to that Epsom race by Andre Fabre, he'd finished 2023 with a distant view of Rosallion's rump in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. But it was a big step forward on Oaks day, where he was tardy from the gate but showed plenty of speed to move to the front of the field; he then battled gamely while seeming unbalanced on the camber and can arguably be marked up a touch.

Classic Flower runs for Patrice Cottier, who saddled Horizon Dore to run third in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes on Wednesday. In the same ownership, this daughter of Calyx has been second on all three starts in '24, all on very wet turf. Her trainer must fancy her to show more on terra firmer, and she did win a Group 2 on good to soft last October. Her form is hard to peg - likely a beat below the pick of her rivals - but she is consistent, could conceivably step forward for fast turf, and her trainer is respected.

The rest of them probably have too much to find but I want to mention two highly progressive runners who wouldn't be total shock winners. Firstly, Stuart Williams trains Pandora's Gift, a filly that has raced exclusively on all-weather surfaces heretofore. Second on her debut as a 20/1 shot, she's won her other four starts, most recently when waltzing away with a Listed prize at Chelmsford. Prior to that she won in a manner rarely seen in a valuable all-weather handicap. She went up 12lb for that win and another 11lb for her Listed victory. If she can translate that level to turf, a further similar bound forward would put her bang there. If.

The twice-raced Kind Of Blue is the other worth noting. James Fanshawe has had some very good sprinters - remember The Tin Man? - and while it's very early to include this colt's name in the same sentence, he looked very good in the second of two novice stakes wins last time. That was good to firm ground on Doncaster's straight track, so no conditions fears, but this is a chasmic class rise. One to keep on side going forwards and it will be interesting, though not wager worthy, to see how he goes in this G1.

This is quite difficult. I want to be against Inisherin, whose ability to lead may be compromised against genuine top class sprinters. Obviously, I expect him to win now. Elite Status made a big jump on figures on his sole three-year-old start and may have matured into a far better model, with similar comments applying to the slightly more lightly-raced Jasour; the latter is a bigger price and appeals as a bit of value at around 6/1. And at Hail Mary prices, I want to take penny flyers on the two fillies, Classic Flower and Pandora's Gift. There are reasons to believe both could step forward a chunk on what they've achieved under these markedly different conditions and, while they might fail badly, the price justifies small interest. Two fillies have won this in its short history so there are no reservations on that score: it's 'simply' whether they'll be remotely good enough!

If I'm wrong about the Sheikh Obaid pair, so be it, but it looks a more open contest than the top two to me...

Suggestion: 80% of a unit win Jasour at 6/1, 5% e/w Classic Flower 33/1 and 5% e/w 25/1 Pandora's Gift

 

3.45 Coronation Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo fillies)

Preview by Rory Delargy

Donnacha O’Brien’s Porta Fortuna is arguably more exposed than a few around her in the market for the Coronation Stakes, but she is proven at the highest level and her form stacks up well given she has previous at the track and the likely fast ground suits her ideally.

Porta Fortuna was a decisive winner of the Albany Stakes here twelve months ago, where she impressed with the way she moved through the race before taking it up at the furlong pole and repelling the challenge of Matrika. She was below form on softer ground in both the Phoenix Stakes and the Moyglare Stud Stakes (5¾ lengths joint-third to subsequent Irish 1000 Guineas winner Fallen Angel) but belatedly built on her Royal Ascot win when clocking a smart time in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket at the end of September, beating Rubies And Pearls by a length and a half on ground Timeform called good to firm.

She then ran a screamer in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf on her first try at a mile, and again shaped really well after an absence when second in the 1000 Guineas on good ground. She was forced to go earlier than ideal there in pursuit of Ramatuelle, and that pair gave Guineas winner Elmalka a target to aim at, with the margin between the trio at the line very small. The closing sectional suggesting that the winner was favoured by making her move latest of all.

The pair she split are both respected but I’m more than happy to continue to support Porta Fortuna, who has more than once shown herself to be very game under pressure. The fact that she is proven on track and ground is a big positive and the turning mile should suit better than the straight one at Newmarket given her tactical speed.

Ramatuelle could be considered an unlucky loser at Newmarket with plenty blaming Aurelien Lemaitre for kicking too soon but, while Lemaitre has made a couple of high-profile errors, I thought he gave the Justify filly an excellent ride, maximising her superior speed at a crucial part of the race and almost stealing it as a result. My view is that she barely stays 7f and that she will be vulnerable here where she has a draw in stall one which means she must either be ridden aggressively to get track position, or hope that others give her room which is far from certain.

Elmalka is unexposed and will be fancied by many to progress again, but we saw Notable Speech fail to match his 2000 Guineas effort in the St James’s Palace earlier in the week, and Ascot does present challenges of its own. As mentioned, I thought that while the ground she made up late looked remarkable she happened to be in the right part of the track the way that race unfolded, and I’m not sold on her superiority on the day.

Recommended: 1pt e/w Porta Fortuna @ 7/1 (general)

 

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4.25 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

This is probably my favourite race of the week and one of the best course and distances to have a bet on in big fields. That’s because there is a strong draw bias that is largely overlooked in the betting.

 

 

The line graph above shows the PRB3 performance by draw. It’s quite clear that the bottom eight or so stalls perform far worse than any higher stall and this trend is repeated with the win and place data too. The lowest seven stalls have won four handicaps on good or better ground whilst the next eleven stalls have won twenty times in the same time period.

The heat map shows draw and pace in combination and this is even more enlightening. There seems to be a fairly significant advantage in racing prominently or in mid-division from middle to high draws. Those run styles/draw combinations have accounted for 14 of the last 20 handicap winners in these conditions.

The only other ‘positive’ draw and run style combination is leaders from middle draws. The worst performing combinations are high drawn front runners and low drawn hold up performers.

It’s relatively easy to explain this draw bias. Big field mile and a half handicaps here can be really rough races where those on the rail often don’t get anything resembling a clear run. They don’t get long to sort themselves out in the straight so the horses that are a bit handier, and on the outside, are well positioned in relation to the lead and are pretty much guaranteed a clear run.

Fortunately, the one I’ve liked for this since the declarations first came out is a prominent racer and drawn high, which should see him to maximum effect. For quick reference, you can use the Geegeez Gold pace map below to see which horses fall into the likely advantaged category here.

 

 

On Tuesday I was strongly against Belloccio in the Copper Horse Stakes because Willie Mullins needed to suddenly improve the horse by 10lbs+ on turf for him to figure. Mullins worked his magic and the horse won well. My gripe with the Mullins horses is we know from previous experience that they are very likely to win or run well. At the same time, they often come here unproven over the trips at which they are running, unproven on the ground and their handicap marks are usually complete guesswork. That’s not the case with Ethical Diamond who ticks all those boxes and also even boasts some of my beloved ‘hot form’.

As a 3yo, before moving to Mullins’ yard he improved for the step up in trip from 10f to 12f, when beating a subsequently 94-rated runner up by 2 lengths giving her 5lbs. That run alone makes him look well treated as he is also rated 94 now himself.

He didn’t really fire over hurdles for Mullins but the ground was testing on all three occasions and he was very highly tried. The return to the flat in May did the trick, though, as he was beaten just a short head over 10f at Leopardstown. The winner has since won a handicap off an 8lb higher mark (admittedly over further) whilst the 3rd has since won a 19-runner handicap (admittedly over shorter).

Ethical Diamond has unfortunately gone up 5lbs for that effort but the form looks strong and he’s almost certain to improve for the step back up to 12f here. He likes to race prominently and is drawn in stall 18 (will probably be 16 by the time the reserves come out) so the only thing not to get excited about is the price. He’s around 5/2 at the time of writing and although that might seem short in a big field handicap, it looks pretty fair given how lightly raced he is and the scope there is for more to come stepping back up in trip.

If the race doesn’t go to Willie Mullins, it still looks more than likely it will go back to Ireland as they have a strong grip on this. Crystal Black is a very progressive rival, winning four of his last five starts. He’s been winning over a mile and also 10f and having that mile pace suggests he might not see out this trip. He’s also drawn in stall 4 which is another reason I'm happy to take him on.

Deakin represents last year’s winning trainer, Joseph O'Brien, and he was a neck behind Crystal Black over 10f last time out. Unlike Crystal Black, he’s very much proven over this trip and should have a good chance of reversing that form here considering the extra trip and also the fact he’s drawn in stall 21 (will be 18 after the reserves come out). He’s unproven on fast ground but has coped fine with good and looks a likely player.

Behind Crystal Black and Deakin last time out was Safecracker and he looks overpriced at 16/1 or so. He’s proven over this longer trip and, crucially, is also proven on fast ground. His run style isn’t ideal for the round course but I wouldn’t be surprised if he too reverses form with Crystal Black.

The home challenge is headed by Shadow Dance, a Roger Varian-trained 4yo who hasn’t run since finishing runner up in the Old Rowley Cup in October, traditionally one of the stronger 3yo races of the season (last year’s renewal has produced future winners yet again). Varian’s horses have generally been running to form first time out this season and Perotto had the same prep before finishing 3rd in Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup. He’s likely to be seen to best effect over further in future and I think he might end up poorly positioned so I’d be slightly again him here, but I fancy his chances of winning a decent 14f handicap before long.

La Yakel also reappears here after a break and, given he’s generally looked better over shorter and on softer turf, he is opposable from stall 1. Fairbanks and Sea King are both progressive and in form but stalls 2 and 6 could be a disadvantage for that pair. In any case, Fairbanks probably showed the handicapper too much when winning comfortably on his penultimate start, and Sea King might be better in smaller fields and when fresh.

Bague D’Or was one I liked for the Copper Horse earlier in the week but the main angle with him is his record over 14f on fast ground. Back in trip, I’m far less keen on him.

In summary, I think there is a good chance we see an Irish one-two in this year's Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes. I’m pretty keen on Ethical Diamond and I’m not put off by his price. Deakin is my clear next best and I might even have a little go on the forecast/exacta. I can see Shadow Dance and Safecracker finishing well from off the pace but they might be at a tactical disadvantage.

 

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5.05 Sandringham Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo fillies)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

These Royal Ascot handicaps do not get any easier and unfortunately for me it is not the strongest of trends races, not against the sort of pointers I use anyway.

However, it should be noted that the market has been some sort of guide with 13 of the 16 winners sent off 11/1 or shorter ISP, those sent off bigger, 3/251, 25p. Having said that, between 2017-2020, three of the four races were won by 20/1+ shots, two trained by Charlie Fellowes, who isn’t represented this year. Over the last three renewals, those sent off 12/1+ are now 0/65, 6p. It would make all our jobs a little easier if the market continued to be some sort of guide, even though I do like the odd big priced-poke in such races.

Ignoring the market for the moment, there are a couple of pointers which can help. Horses that had two or three runs in the previous 90 days, who’d won or placed at least once on their last two starts and who’d run at Class 3+ at least once in their career, would have found 13/15 of the UK/Irish trained winners (Wesley Ward winning this in 2017, not included in these stats).

If that profile was to hold we'd be left with a long list of 12, but without any pointers to narrow it further other than hoping the market is once again a guide. Those twelve are:

Everlasting, Zaynab, Flight of Fancy, Fair Angellica, Battle Queen, Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, Arisaig, Soprano, Marcella, My Margie, Raknah

Looking at horses representing trainers who have won this race previously can also be useful.

- John & Thady Gosden: Cat Ninja, Mrs Morrell, D Fawless, Strutting
- Charlie (and Mark) Johnston: Arisaig
- Johnny Murtagh: Asian Daze

Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, and Arisaig are the three horses to hit my trends profile and which represent yards who know how to win this race.

I'm going for two each-way bets from the trends list, with as many places as you can find, and hope that once again it's the turn of an outsider to take this race.

Arisaig - 25/1 - EW - Charlie Johnston's filly has been in decent form, and his dad knew what was required to win the Sandringham so hopefully that's rubbed off. Arisaig appeared to appreciate more patient tactics when last seen, having been ridden very aggressively at Newmarket the time before, but still running with credit. She showed an impressive change of gear at Lingfield and won like a horse on the upgrade. It was a performance to think that a fast run mile on this straight course with plenty of cover up the middle could be just what she wants. I always like the booking of Jamie Spencer on this track, where you can almost back him blind each way at the Royal Meeting for interest stakes; and he got the job done again yesterday with a 16/1 > 5/1 SP winner. He booted home 90/1 and 140/1 BFSP winners last year. Spencer will switch Arisaig off, get her in a rhythm and allow her to finish her race - I'd like to think that may be good enough to run into the places here, and who knows after that? Evidently she needs to step up again, but she's going the right way and her relative experience could be worth plenty here.

Soprano - 25/1 - EW - George Boughey's filly has been highly tried in her career to date - straight into Group 3s and Listed contests after her Newmarket maiden win - and this is her handicap debut having finished her juvenile season 'winning' her side in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She's been running with credit, but often running on in small fields with the leaders having set sail for home. It's her first attempt at a mile, and trying such a trip here is never ideal, but that's built into the price and is arguably a reason for a jolt of improvement. Like Arisaig, she may relish this strong pace, being covered up and running through tiring horses. She's related to a few milers on her dam side, so fingers crossed she appreciates the extra distance. Billy Loughnane was on the scoresheet on Day 1 and I'm hoping he'll be patient and try and thread his way through. The yard is in fine form also. Soprano has a touch of class and if seeing out the trip can hopefully grab a place at worst. As always, if you can grab a place, you can win, so fingers crossed.

Predicting any draw bias on this straight track appears impossible and so far this week it appears to have been riding fairly, more a case of where the sustained pace comes from. These two will have the option of staying up the middle, though Jamie could go low if he wishes and Billy could go high if wanted, so all bases covered there.

It could be the market has this right again, Indelible stepping out of maiden/novice company, but she does look very short to my eyes. Ralph Beckett is 0/10, 0p in the race also, which wouldn't fill me with confidence if wading in, but maybe she's just a cut above these - the market suggests so and given how good Ralph is generally, and especially with fillies, he will surely win this at some point.

I could name ten more horses and get nowhere near the winner, it's that sort of contest! However, Arisaig and Soprano are two lively outsiders who look overpriced to my eyes. Some bookies are paying as far down as eight places, which could help! Good luck with any bets.

 

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5.40 King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo colts & geldings)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

For the purposes of the trends we'll overlook the result from 2020 because, due to Covid, the Derby was actually run after Royal Ascot that year.

Traditionally sandwiched in the middle of the Epsom and Irish Derby's the 'Ascot Derby' is a pale shadow of either of those Group 1's, and the Epsom winner hasn't shown up here in a very long time although the Derby second did run, and win, last year. In fact, five of the last seven winners had their last start at Epsom where they had finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 10th (twice).

This year we have just two Derby runners taking part: Voyage, who was actually first past the post at Epsom but did so without a jockey having stumbled and unseated Pat Dobbs shortly after leaving the starting stalls, and Macduff who was quietly fancied for the race but pulled too hard and never got himself into a challenging position.

So, as is usual for the King Edward VII we have a field made up of a couple of also rans from Epsom, a few that missed it for one reason or another, a number of lesser lights from the O'Brien stable, a couple of winners stepping up from novice company and a few trainers tilting at windmills hoping to pick up some black type and place money. We do also have a couple of French raiders to spice things up this year, however, including the 5th from the Prix du Jockey Club.

The trends say we need a run as a 2yo, 1-3 seasonal runs, 2-7 career starts and the most recent within the last 12-56 days in a class 1-3 race where they finished in the first four (unless it was the Derby). All of the last nine winners were rated 103+ and, interestingly, 13 of the last 17 winners had yet to win a Group race. It also hasn't paid to get too fancy odds wise recently with four of the last five favourites winning and eight of the last nine winners returning 7/1 or shorter.

We can knock a few out on the trends for one reason or another but there are still plenty of the field that seem to tick all the boxes so I'm simply going to go with that recent trend regarding the Epsom runners and side with the horse that was down the field in the Derby.

MACDUFF did well as a 2yo and rounded off his season with a 4th in the Royal Lodge before shaping with promise in the Classic Trial at Sandown on his seasonal debut. He was a staying on second there behind Arabian Crown and, on the back of that run, he was nibbled at ante post at big prices for the Derby and was eventually sent off at 14/1. Taking a keen hold he never really got going and raced in rear throughout to come home a disappointing 13th of the 16 runners. Ralph Beckett now reaches for the first time cheekpieces in the hope they'll help settle him (Macduff not Beckett!) and I'm willing to give him another chance based on his earlier form. He wouldn't be the first horse to fail to handle Epsom before winning here, and he does seem a big price on what he had achieved before Derby day.

SELECTION: MACDUFF 1/2pt EW 25/1

 

6.15 Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (5f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

Pace. It’s important. We’re always told “pace yourself”, whether that’s life in general, or you’re on a three-day bender over a bank holiday weekend. (Please drink responsibly.) Without a certain amount of pace, we’d never get to where we want to go. And if it’s over five furlongs at Royal Ascot, you arguably need a bucketful of it, and that’s what this field has. And in spades, too. Buckets and spades...

Wherever you look here, there’s pace: seven of the nine runners drawn in single figures have led at some point in their last three runs, four from the middle and five from those drawn 20 and above. That’s pretty much half the field that like a view of the front, and unless one of them is an Art Power in disguise - remember him back in 2020, they came here instead of the Commonwealth Cup and he absolutely took them apart with a devastating display of front-running - I cannot help but think this will suit something that can travel in midfield and come through late to win it.

Step forward Blue Storm, who has already taken one big handicap this season after winning the 3yo Dash at Epsom last time out, reversing form with three of those that had finished in front of him at Chester on his seasonal reappearance the time before. He was nicely on top at Epsom late, and this stiffer track should suit even better. A 6lb rise for that is fair, he’s now proven himself in a full field, he’ll travel well in centre pack and has the strength late to play a part. He ticks a lot of boxes for a 14-1 chance, for me, and heads up my list.

Fantasy Master hit the frame in this back in 2021 for Mick Appleby and his Shagraan has a similar sort of profile. You’d be hard pressed to say he was unlucky against Equity Law at Sandown two starts back but I was impressed with the way he travelled there and, once he did find the gaps, he stayed on well for second. I thought at the time this might be the race for him after that effort. He did nothing to dissuade me when third to James’s Delight at Newmarket last time, form that’s already working out, and I think he can reverse placings with second home Two Tribes if given a more patient ride today. Mick seems to have rejuvenated the horse after he left Clive Cox, and I suspect he’s had this race in mind for some time. Stall 19 gives him options, too.

Speaking of Clive Cox, his Symbology is worth a mention at a huge price as well. The negatives aren’t hard to find - she’s not shown much in two starts this year, although in her defence, she’d probably have needed her first start of the year in the Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury after nine months away from the track, and then she got no cover at the weekend when well held in the Scurry Stakes. So, yes, you have to be forgiving, but here’s the figures bit - Clive Cox, when running his handicappers within seven days of their last run, is 9-46, which is pretty good on its own, but even better when the expected winners was just over six.

There’s a lot to take on trust and ideally I’d have preferred another furlong, but at 66-1 we don’t have to pay a lot to find out whether she can bounce back to form on a track for which she’s already shown a liking. (In fact, she’s the only horse in the whole field to have finished in the frame at Ascot previously. Another little plus…)

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And that, dear reader, is that. 28 races covered by seven writers, six of them guests, across four days; and a great smattering of winners already in their midst. Thank you for making geegeez.co.uk a part of your Royal Ascot 2024 experience and, if you like what we do and are not yet a member of our multi-award winning Gold racecards and form tools service, you can take it for a spin for as little as £1 at this link.

Thanks again, and be lucky.
Matt

p.s. What did you think of the previews this week? Did you enjoy them? And what was your personal highlight of the week so far? Please leave a comment below and let us know

Royal Ascot 2024: Day 3 (Thursday) Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

Eyes down look in for another full house: seven more devilishly difficult punting puzzles. And, as is the usual way of it during Royal Ascot, it's quality from top to bottom. The feature race of the day is the historic pinnacle of the whole week, the Gold Cup, a Group 1 contested over two and a half miles. Kyprios is a very warm order in his bid to regain a crown he was unable to defend last year. Before that, though, it's the flying juvies in the...

2.30 Norfolk Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

I’m writing this preview having just watched Electrolyte, my pick in the Coventry Stakes on Tuesday go agonisingly close at 40/1 SP. On we go...

The Group 2 Norfolk Stakes kicks off Day 3. It’s one of the highlights of the juvenile races at Royal Ascot, specifically showcasing two-year-old sprinters. Originally known as the New Stakes, it has a rich history dating back to 1843. It was renamed in honour of the Duke of Norfolk in 1973. The race has been a stepping stone for many future stars in the sprinting world. Trainers, such as Richard Fahey, Aidan O’Brien and Wesley Ward have had notable success in the race in the past decade.

Horses that have demonstrated early speed and can break well from the gates are often at an advantage in this fast 5-furlong dash.

The race is a 'Win and You're In' race for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

Key Contenders:

Thirteen colts and geldings and one filly have been declared for this year’s renewal. We have a short- priced favourite in Whistlejacket. The Aidan O’Brien trained colt is a full brother to Little Big Bear who won the Windsor Castle Stakes for Aidan in 2022. Whistlejacket built on a promising racecourse debut when making all to win a Listed race (5f) at the Curragh. He finished 3¾ lengths in front of Arizona Blaze who has since gone onto win a Group 3 (6f), also at the Curragh. It’s hard to see Arizona Blaze reversing places with Whistlejacket.

Big spending Wathnan Racing have a couple of contenders in Shareholder and Aesterius. Shareholder, the choice of retained jockey James Doyle, looked a very well developed juvenile when overcoming greenness to win the Two Year Old Trophy at Beverley 12 days ago. He’s capable of better and should be in the mix. Aesterius knew his job when winning at Bath on his racecourse debut last month: despite being up with the pace all the way the colt was still strong at the finish. He looked a good prospect in victory and can improve further. Trainer Archie Watson went so close in the Coventry Stakes and Aesterius can do the same for him here.

Moving Force battled on well but was just touched off by Shareholder at Beverley. He was trying to give the winner 7lb so it was a good effort, and he can progress again. Trainer Richard Fahey saddled the winner in 2021 & 2022.

Saturday Flirt, trained by Wesley Ward, is the only filly in the line-up. The daughter of Mendelssohn came from off the pace to win at Keeneland (5½ f) on debut in April. She now runs in the colours of Mrs Fitri Hay and must be respected.

Tropical Storm left behind his debut effort when a much improved neck 2nd of 7 to The Actor at Newbury last month. He’ll need to step up again to win his but could well do so.

Norfolk Stakes Verdict:

It’s possible that Whistlejacket will prove much too good for his rivals. However, he’s plenty short enough for me and I prefer the claims of Aesterius, who is a standout 14/1 with Bet365 / William Hill and worth taking each-way.

Betting Advice:
Aesterius £4 each way – 14/1 @ Bet365.

 

 

3.05 King George V Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

I’d be lost without my own trends and stats for these ‘festival’ handicaps and, having already served me well in this year’s Ascot Stakes with a 20/1 winner, hopefully they can help us out here. That’s even more true with a 3YO only handicap where the majority of runners seemingly arrive in decent form and are open to improvement. Let’s dive in…

16/16 were rated OR 95 or lower (0/38, 10p rated higher, small numbers and the placed horses suggest that may fall sooner rather than later, only three runners this year OR96+)

14/14 (of those with a career win) had won at Class 4 level or higher

14/14 (of those with a career win) had won at least once on their last two starts

Applying those pointers would leave us a short list of six…

Going The Distance, Fouroneohfever, Gallantly, City Burglar, Warda Jamila and Naval Force

I should add two further horses, both rated 95 or lower, who’ve yet to win in their career in the UK/Ireland, (my trends ignore form from other racing jurisdictions) … French Duke and Autumn Winter.

I will add one other stat, mainly as it’s a potential negative for City Burglar, but those drawn in stalls 1 or 2 in the period are now 0/30, 3p. I suspect said horses either use up too much gas trying to get a prominent position early, or end up behind a wall of horses as the race hots up. It’s sure to be broken one of these years, though, and not many fancied horses have had a go.

Now we just need to hope the trends profile holds, as that makes our job easier, with eight horses to focus on instead of twenty. Still, assuming the winner is in those eight, landing on the right one is still a challenge!

Where possible I don’t like applying too many trends to form a shortlist but with 15/16 winners being colts, if upholding that would leave Fouroneohfever, Gallantly and City Burglar, and the two who’ve yet to win a race… French Duke and Autumn Winter. All of those finished in the top three last time out which has been a big positive also.

The trainers…

Given racehorse trainers would tend to be creatures of habit, it can pay to focus on those handlers who have previously won said race, as they know the type required to get the job done and this may well have been the target.

The trainers who have won this race in the previous sixteen renewals, are represented by…
- Aidan O’Brien: Chantilly, Gallantly, Gasper De Lemos, Autumn Winter
- Ralph Beckett: Going The Distance, Poniros, City Burglar
- William Haggas: Glided Warrior

Cross-referencing the stats and the trainers gives… Going The Distance, City Burglar, Autumn Winter and Gallantly

For those of you who enjoy solving the puzzle hopefully the above may help.

So, where have my darts landed?

Looking at this race a couple of things strike me: firstly, no horse has yet won on officially Good to Firm ground and only City Burglar has even placed on such a surface, all bar three horses have yet to encounter fast ground – some of these are going to improve for conditions, and that could be a reason for something in here taking a massive step forward, notwithstanding this may be the most frantic gallop most of these have ever experienced.

The Geegeez Pace map suggests this could be frantically run with a few who like to lead and many who like to race prominently and push the pace. We’ll see how it transpires but this may go to a jockey who engages their brain and sits off the early fractions…

French Duke – 9/1 - the first of the two who are yet to win a race, but in this race that sort is 2/8, 3p +185 BFSP, so it’s certainly been no hindrance, and this son of Sea The Stars did all but win when last seen. He’s one of the few in here who could drop in, he’ll need some luck, but William Buick knows his way around this course and distance (5/26, 8p last five years) as does Roger Varian: while he’s only had two runners in this race previously, he’s 5/16, 6p +14 SP with all runners over this track and trip, and the yard are hitting form. French Duke is thoroughly unexposed, should strip fitter for his return run where he may have done too much too soon, and could improve for fast turf and this further step up in trip. I expect him to be running at them late, we’ll see if he gets the gaps.

Autumn Winter – 20/1 - the other one from my list yet to win a race, but Aidan O’Brien knows what’s required, his one winner of this returning 22/1 SP. The booking of Jim Crowley suggests he’s down the pecking order, but he makes handicap debut here after some promising maiden efforts, all in heavy ground. This Galileo colt could well transform for a sounder surface, and a half mile step up in trip. Given the longer race I hope his rider drops him in behind the pace.

Naval Force – 33/1 - one at an even bigger price here for Donnacha O’Brien, who had a group winner at last year’s meeting. There are plenty of unknowns about this son of Churchill also, his first go on faster turf which I think may well suit him, and again a step up in trip to the longest distance he’s faced. Donnacha wouldn’t send him simply for a day out, and he could be a lively outsider in a race where price has been no barrier to success.

Those three darts will do for me in an ultra-competitive handicap. I may not have mentioned the winner, or indeed picked the right ones from the trends list, but they’re the most interesting to my eyes and with any luck they give us something to cheer.

 

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3.45 Ribblesdale Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

A Group 2 over the Oaks distance for Classic generation fillies, and a race that Teams Gosden and Ballydoyle have held in a half nelson since 2014. During that decade, only Jessica Harrington (2022) and David Wachman (2015) have encroached upon the duopoly. It may be little surprise then that those two powerhouse yards will saddle five runners between them, three for John and Thady, two for Aidan.

None of that quintet is favoured, however, that honour bestowed upon Diamond Rain, a gorgeous daughter of Shamardal out of Oaks winner Dancing Rain. Trained by Charlie Appleby she was unraced at two and, as a three-year-old this term, is unbeaten in two. The first of that pair of wins was here at a mile, the second a striking saunter in a noted Oaks trial at Newbury, Listed level. She skipped Epsom and steps up two furlongs and two grades to contest this. Drawn inside and a prominent racer last time, she's going to be very hard to beat.

Second in the betting lists is Kalpana, trained by Andrew Balding for Juddmonte. She's another who didn't race as a juvenile, but has had four spins in 2024 starting with a neck verdict at Wolverhampton in January. She then bumped into the very smart Inisherin (6th in the 2000 Guineas and now favourite for the Commonwealth Cup on Friday) over a mile at Newcastle before winning a nine-runner Newmarket handicap by ten lengths. Ten! Upped to Listed class last time, over the same ten furlong course and distance as her handicap stroll, she pulled a dozen lengths clear of the third but couldn't quite reel in Friendly Soul.

Aidan's pair are Port Fairy and Rubies Are Red. The former was just caught by the re-opposing Forest Fairy in the Cheshire Oaks last time; while Port F hasn't run since, Forest F rocked up in the Oaks, finishing 17 lengths behind the winner. That doesn't look like Ribblesdale-winning form even allowing for maybe not handling the track that day. Rubies Are Red was even further back at Epsom and is now a four race maiden, though she did run a solid race in the Lingfield Oaks Trial when second.

Best of the three Oaks fillies to contest this was You Got To Me, who finished fourth. She'd previously won half a length in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, a run that puts her close to Rubies Are Red. I think Ralph Beckett's filly is the better but I'm not totally sold on her stamina.

In third at Lingfield was Danielle, for the Gosdens. That is the best of her four efforts to date and she'd need to improve a stone to win. John and Thady also send Siyola, a twice-raced debut winner who ran third behind Diamond Rain in the Newbury Listed race. She was a bit keen in the race that day and, with this bigger field offering prospects of a bit of cover and settling better, she might be able to get closer to the winner there this time; they are both open to plenty of improvement.

Queens Fort rounds out the Clarehaven Stables trio. Another twice-raced filly, she was fourth in a mile and a quarter maiden here on her first run before taking a mile and a half maiden on the all-weather at Lingfield last time. It's a quantum leap from that to this but she's a Galileo out of a smart mare so she, too, could improve again (and she, too, will need to).

Lava Stream is a different model altogether. Trained by David O'Meara she's had six runs, losing the first three and winning the most recent three. Although not obviously bred for this far - by Too Darn Hot - there is stamina on the dam's side and she needed all of the ten furlongs to prevail at Goodwood last time in Listed class. She's a bit of a 'now' filly, improving fast this season, and I quite like her as a late runner to get into the frame. I can't make a case for any of Je Zous, Higher Leaves or Sheema's Rose, which is not to say they won't win of course.

From a betting perspective, she's not much of a price but 13/8 DIAMOND RAIN has looked all class in two starts to date. There's a very good chance she'll take this further step up - in class and distance - in her ample stride. In the each way markets, I can't resist a small play on 25/1 Lava Stream who was doing all her best work at the finish last time and looks deceptively progressive.

 

4.25 Gold Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Preview by Rory Delargy

Some races are easier to analyse than others, and some are a nightmare, with little form to tie the contestants together. The Gold Cup falls into the first category but is no less intriguing for all that most of the major contenders have intertwined form. The best horse in the contest based on historical form is the 2022 winner Kyprios, but whether you judge him on that form or his runs since returning from an injury last autumn is the key debate to have.

Based on that stellar season where he racked up a series of Group 1 wins, including a career-highlight in the Prix du Cadran which he won by 20 lengths despite literally going walkabout in the closing stages, he will be hard to beat, and his odds are predicated on the notion that he’s as good as ever.

It is possible to argue that two workmanlike wins against inferior rivals this term are a fair bit short of the form he showed then, and he was turned over in the Long Distance Cup by Trawlerman on British Champions Day. The excuses that day were that he had an interrupted prep and that Frankie Dettori outrode Ryan Moore tactically, and there is some merit in both, but excuses are just that. Trawlerman won at level weights when the pair clashed last year and the Godolphin horse has improved markedly in the last 18 months, as shown by his latest third in the Dubai Gold Cup, a race he was well beaten in twelve months prior, before winning all three starts on British soil.

Winner of the 2022 Ebor, Trawlerman showed his liking for Ascot with a close third in the Long Distance Cup later that year, and his British form in the last two years has been progressive since being fitted with a hood, with form figures on home soil reading 113111. He failed to fire in the Middle East last year so his third to Tower Of London in the Dubai Gold Cup was encouraging, especially as he rallied late having been headed. The key feature of his win here on Champions Day was that he also rallied to regain the lead having been headed by Kyprios in the home straight, and he gives the impression that he will be even better suited by the longer trip of the Gold Cup.

I don’t really get why Trawlerman’s stablemate Gregory is a shorter price than him, with his best effort a win in the Queen’s Vase here last year. He’s lost all three subsequent starts by the guts of five lengths each time and while he may appreciate the longer trip, he needs to improve by 7lb to match the leading pair and I'm less convinced than others that he will relish the step up from 1¾m to 2½m at the first try. Vauban was in front of him in the Yorkshire Cup last time, but doesn’t look to be crying out for a stiffer test, and his win here last year was in handicap company over 1¾m which leaves him with a bit to find. It’s a similar story for last year’s Ebor runner-up Sweet William, who does at least hold Caius Chorister on Henry II Stakes form at Sandown.

Coltrane beat Caius Chorister the same narrow margin as Sweet William did when winning the Sagaro Stakes here and there is little between the trio, who have place claims but seem held on collateral form. Ironically, Trueshan proved he didn’t need softish ground when winning the Prix du Cadran last year and he also beat Sweet William at Doncaster prior to that. He could outrun his lengthy odds if allowed to run, for all his participation must be in doubt given previous late withdrawals from this race.

Recommended: 1pt e/w Trawlerman @ 8/1 (general – 3 places)

 

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5.05 Britannia Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

There are some very strong trends associated with the Britannia handicap and hopefully they can narrow down the field sufficiently to help us find the winner. I'm going to ignore the result for 2020, due to the Covid outbreak, as Royal Ascot was run out of order with some of the major meetings that year and without the usual build up to the race for these 3yo's.

The most striking stat from the last 12 non-Covid renewals is that they had all finished top five on their last run (71 losers finishing 6th or worse last time out).

Looking at some other stats we can see that all of the last 12 winners had run in the previous nine weeks (63 days) with all 28 horses trying to defy such a break beaten (just two placed). Other types of runners that we can overlook in the Britannia include those dropping down in trip compared to their last run (55 losers in the last 12 years), those that last ran on the all-weather (34 losers / 4 placed), those that last ran in a maiden (all 17 such runners unplaced) and any rated under 87 or carrying less than 8-04 (all ten unplaced).

Unfortunately, this year those trends don't help us too much with only a handful of runners ruled out; but if we look at the other end of the weights we can see that only one winner has managed to carry more than 9-03 and only one winner has managed to defy a rating of 100+ (Aidan O'Brien's War Envoy in 2015) from the 55 to have tried over the last 12 years. In fact, since War Envoy won in 2015, all eight winners have been rated in the 90's (three of the eight were rated exactly 90).

A typical Britannia winner is also fairly lightly raced with ten of the last 12 winners having raced 3-6 times in their career and when coupled with what has been a fairly significant draw bias in the Britannia (high numbers have dominated this century including nine of the last 10 winners coming from a double figure draw) this would take us down to a shortlist of five: Involvement, Qirat, Artic Thunder, Mickley and Skukuza.

Of the five I quite like the look of ARTIC THUNDER who two starts back got within three lengths of the subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech (didn't run his race in yesterday's St James Palace) at level weights, leading that race until the final furlong. He showed that performance was no fluke when going to Ascot to win a Class 2 handicap by a short head with the third horse 3 1/2 lengths back and, despite going up 7lb, could still be well in going by that Kempton run.

The step back up to a mile shouldn't be a problem as he was sticking on well at Ascot and always looked to have the measure of the runner up. It's a big field of mostly unexposed 3yo handicappers but his trainer did win this race in 2014 and the selection seems to fit the profile of a typical Britannia winner. He's worth chancing at the odds.

SELECTION: ARCTIC THUNDER 28/1

 

5.40 Hampton Court Stakes (1m2f, Group 3, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

The only winning favourite in the last five years for the Hampton Court Stakes has been Mohaafeth, who had been due to run in the Derby before a last-minute injury kept him away from the race; but, equally, the biggest-priced winner in that period has been 7-1, which both Claymore (when defeating the long odds-on Reach for The Moon) and Waipiro were when winning in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

So we don’t usually have to look too far down the market to find the winner, and we might not have to look far at all if the fast-improving King’s Gambit takes another step forward after his easy Newbury win last time out.

It was hard not to be impressed with the manner of that win, showing a very smart turn of foot after being produced at the furlong pole, and the way he powered on to pull four lengths clear of the improving Poniros, with previous winner Chantilly back in third, was impressive.

The fact that connections weren’t trying to win clever with him rather suggested that further handicaps weren’t on their minds anyway: just as well as he received a 14lb fine for it, but rather that they knew they have a Group horse on their hands and one that will be stepping up in grade sooner rather than later.

All the metrics of that win stack up, form and time figures both impressive, and now he’s proven himself on quicker ground, it’s hard to find many negatives to his chance.

Technically speaking, First Look’s second in the Prix du Jockey Club is a better piece of form but all of his turf form to date has come on ground no quicker than good, according to Timeform, and by Thursday it’s going to be very quick. (I can tell you from walking the course Tuesday morning there’s no give out there, and it’s only going to get quicker.) That has to be a concern, and for all he’s respected, King’s Gambit looks the better option.

Taraj changed hands for a pretty penny earlier in the week, with Amo Racing going to £480,000 to get him on Monday, and they will be looking for an immediate return. His third to Los Angeles in the Leopardstown Derby Trial reads well enough, but it needs improving upon.

You can, if you are the forgiving sort, make some sort of case for Jayarebe from the outside stall 12, which might suit his front-running style given there's not that much pace on here. He looked a useful sort when winning the Feilden Stakes back in April, for all that Newmarket was suiting front-runners at the time, and it’s worth remembering he had Derby second Ambiente Friendly behind him that day. He ran to a similar level at Chester in the Dee Stakes despite pulling too hard for his own good for the first half of the contest; the key will be getting him to settle in front and saving something for the final stages. Both Brian Meehan and Sean Levey are off the mark for the week, and of those at double-figure prices, he makes a bit more appeal than most.

 

6.15 Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

I write this before any races have been run on Wednesday so it’s possible that, 13 races later when it’s time for the Buckingham Palace Stakes, there could be a fairly obvious draw bias. Despite being a little in the dark I’m relatively confident I know which side is going to be favoured here, and it’s not the side most of the market leaders have been drawn on…

 

 

Higher draws do have a better record over 7f here on fast ground but, quite remarkably, the main three pace angles in this race - and possibly the only three pace angles - will be emerging from stalls 1, 2 and 3. Arabian Storm is shown on the pace map as a potential leader from stall 15 but he’s a reserve and probably won’t get in.

Perhaps the ground will be faster on the near side by the time this race comes around and high draws might be favoured but it seems the lower drawn horses are going to get a much better tow into the race and I’m therefore largely attracted to lowish drawn hold up performers.

I do want to have Fresh on my side despite him exiting stall 30. He’s a three-time course winner and has also finished a close 2nd in the Wokingham previously. He might be a little regressive now at the age of 7, which is why he’s so well handicapped on older form (10lbs lower than his last win) but I’m a sucker for horses that perform very well in far from ideal circumstances (which he did), as it’s pretty certain they’ll run even better when getting the ideal setup.

He’s been slow to come to hand this season but he showed much more of his old sparkle last time at Haydock in a steadily run race over 6f where he was only beaten 1.5 lengths, and very much shaped as though a stiffer test would suit. If all the pace was on the near side I’d be having a hefty each way bet on Fresh but I think, in the circumstances, a small win only bet will suffice. Assuming he is drawn on the wrong side, he should be monitored in the near future as I think his turn is approaching.

The horses more likely to be well handicapped all seem to be drawn higher so I wouldn’t be surprised if the places are filled with big prices from the lower half of the draw. I was tempted by Greatgadian at 40/1, who might love a really well run 7f handicap having done most of his racing over further. He would have been a bet on his all-weather form but he does seem a better horse on artificial surfaces and for that reason I’ll leave him out of calculations from stall 4.

I’ve been watching Summerghand find the run of the race against him time and time again this season and the old boy has become extremely well handicapped again. He would have been my bet in the Wokingham had he looked likely to get in but the big question mark here is the trip. He’s always been a 6f specialist, though he was stepped up to 7f last time out at Newmarket and, because of his sole previous effort over this trip in the UK, I thought he had half a chance in that.

All the way back in 2019, Summerghand was 4th of 17 in soft ground in the Challenge Cup here off a mark of 102. Given he’s better on faster ground, that was an excellent effort and seemed to confirm that he gets 7f. But he got disappointingly outpaced last time at Newmarket though over the 7f trip and, whilst he finished well, he was never getting near the leaders. He’ll likely be better at this course but considering the winner was in a similar position to him about 3f out, the pace setup can’t be blamed for Summerghand’s performance there.

Still, I’m not sure the Rowley Mile course suits him so much these days so at 33/1 I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt slightly here from stall 13. He’s finished 2nd once, and 5th twice, in the Wokingham and he’s always been strong at the finish in those so must have some sort of chance from his lowest mark in over six years. If this isn't to be his day - he tends to show his very best form around August time - I expect him to take advantage of his slipping mark very soon.

Tacarib Bay has run in three handicaps at Ascot: he was 2nd to Tempus over a mile two years ago off a mark of 106; in the same year he was 3rd in the Balmoral off 104; and he was 6th (1st of 14 in his group) in last year’s renewal of this race off a mark of 103. All three of those runs make him look well handicapped off 99 here.

As recently as November he won a Listed sprint at Newcastle and, again over 6f at Newcastle in January, he was 5th off 106 in a hot handicap. He hasn’t beaten many home in three starts this season but headgear goes back on now suggesting this is either a bit of a plot, or a last roll of the dice. From stall 10, at 40/1, I’m willing to pay to find out.

In summary, the positioning of the pace makes the low draws too difficult to ignore. The more fancied runners mostly seem to be drawn high and I like the chances of Fresh on that side so I’m recommending a small win only bet on him (top price 20/1 at time of writing, similar available on Exchanges). I think low drawn horses at big prices could dominate the finish, though, and I’ll have further small win only bets on Summerghand (33/1) and Tacarib Bay (40/1). Low confidence, but saving stakes for a winner on Friday!

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Hoping your Gold Cup day wagering will be fun and profitable. It should definitely be the first one but if it's not the second, there's always tomorrow...

Matt

Royal Ascot 2024: Day 2 (Wednesday) Preview, Tips

/in , /by

And so to the second finger of the geegeez.co.uk Royal Ascot KitKat: no Saturday here, that's for you. As you'll hopefully know by now, this week we're featuring guest previews from some trusted friends - and fine judges - alongside yours truly, starting today with John 'Victor Value' Burke in the Wednesday curtain-raiser, the...

2.30 Queen Mary Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo fillies)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The Queen Mary Stakes is one of the most prestigious races for two-year-old fillies at Royal Ascot. First run in 1921, this race often features the most precocious and speedy fillies of the season, and many past winners have gone on to achieve significant success in their racing careers.

Key Trends (Last 5 Years):

Stall 17+: 4 winners from 37 runners +4.5, 9 places. (Stalls 1-16: 1 winner from 74 runners -68.5, 6 places).

Odds: 9/1 or shorter: 4 winners from 21 runners +7, 11 placed.

USA Trained: 2 winners from 11 runners +4.05, 4 placed.

The Listed Marygate Stakes at York’s Dante Meeting has been a good pointer to the Queen Mary producing three winners since 2008. This year’s race was won by Betty Clover who takes her place in the line-up.

Surprisingly, Aidan O’Brien has never won the Queen Mary.

Top Contenders:

Make Haste heads the ante post betting after creating a good impression when successful on racecourse debut at Naas last month. A speedy daughter of Blue Point she produced a good change of gear to win at Naas and is open to further improvement. Could have handy draw in stall 18.

Aidan O’Brien saddles Truly Enchanting who overcame greenness to win at Tipperary (soft) on debut 22 days ago. Strong at the finish last time the daughter of No Nay Never should be fine on quicker ground and looks a good prospect. Can she give her trainer a first Queen Mary success?

Leovanni, trained by Karl Burke, looked a smart prospect when winning a Nottingham maiden 14 days ago. Capable of better, it was good to firm that day so quick ground won’t faze her and she should go well.

Enchanting Empress made it 3 from 3 when winning the Listed National Stakes at Sandown (soft) last time. A reproduction of her Sandown form would probably be good enough to place in an average Queen Mary. Yet to race on ground better than good to soft but if she handles it she won’t be far away from stall 25.

Betty Clover was a winner at Bath on her racecourse debut  and returned to winning ways in the Listed Marygate Stakes last time. Came from off a strong pace to win at York and should benefit from Ascot’s stiffer 5f.

Ultima Grace, trained by Wesley Ward, looked speedy when winning on the dirt on debut at Keeneland (4 ½ f) in April. A daughter of American Pharoah, she’s likely got the scope for further improvement and shouldn’t be underestimated for a trainer who has won the race three times since 2015. Said by Ward to have worked well on grass and could be nicely berthed in stall 17.

Miss Rascal built on her racecourse debut promise when winning a course and distance maiden last month. Looked very professional when successful last time which will hold her in good stead here. Tom Marquand stays in the saddle. Likely to go well if stall five isn’t an inconvenience.

Queen Mary Stakes Verdict:

The Queen Mary Stakes promises to be an exciting sprint with a blend of precocious talent and potential future stars. Based on pace maps, the race is likely to be strongly contested from the start. Ascot’s five furlongs favours those who race prominently, so I’m focusing on horses who are likely to be close to the speed.

Ultima Grace has shown good early speed and should thrive on fast ground, and Miss Rascal impressed with her recent win over the course and distance. But Make Haste has garnered significant attention with connections turning down substantial offers, indicating their confidence in her potential.

Betting Advice:

My main selection is Make Haste but I’m having savers on Miss Rascal and Ultima Grace

• Make Haste: £16 win @ 6/1 with William Hill
• Miss Rascal: £2 win @ 10/1 with William Hill & Ladbrokes
• Ultima Grace: £2 win @ 11/1 with William Hill & bet365.

 

3.05 Queen's Vase (1m6f, Group 2, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

I’m gunning for HIGHBURY in this race, at around 7/2…

As always, let me start with some stats and trends… a historical ‘race profile’ points to previous winners having finished top 2 at least once on their last three starts, top 3 last time out, 0-2 runs this season, and having run over 1m4.5f or shorter last time out… this would have found 13 of the previous 16 winners, and 11 of the last 12.

IF this profile holds again, we’d be looking at a shortlist of just four… Illinois, Highbury, Grosvenor Square and Mina Rashid

It may also be worth noting that 15 of the last 16 winners were sent off 15/2 or shorter ISP, those sent off bigger in the period a miserly 1/143, 20p.

To the trainers…

Those handlers to have won this race in the last 16 renewals, and represented today, include Andrew Balding (Mina Rashid), John & Thady Gosden (Pappano) and of course Aidan O’Brien, who leads the way with six winners from 28 runners, 13 places (inc. the winners), four of those sired by the late great Galileo, who is the daddy of all four of Aidan’s runners this year.

Staying with Aidan for the moment, his runners sent off 5/2 or shorter ISP are a perfect 3/3, which as I type is a positive for Illinois, but maybe he and Highbury will flip around, we shall see. Those sent off 10/3 or shorter ISP are 5/9, 5p +10 BFSP. Aidan was responsible for the only 8/1+ shot winning in the period.

Evidently there are no issues with the yard form. I’m writing this before the team’s Day 1 runners strut their stuff, but in the previous 14 days the Master of Ballydoyle is 11/23, 15p, 79% of rivals beaten. They’re firing on all cylinders and couldn’t be entering the week in much better nick, no excuses on that score.

Highbury…

He ticks a lot of boxes for me here and at 7/2 or so offers a shade of value, to my eyes at least. In truth I do not know if Ryan Moore had the choice here, he usually does however Wayne Lordan has been on for both his career runs, evidently knows him best and is 7/13, 8p when riding for his boss in the previous 14 days. He couldn’t be coming here in much better form, as now stable #2. Aidan’s ‘second’ and ‘third’ string jockeys have won this race a few times and it will be interesting to see what the market does as race time approaches.

Of all the O’Brien runners in the Queen's Vase this year, he has least to prove on the ground, supposedly Good to Firm when bolting up at Leopardstown 38 days ago over 1m4f. He travelled comfortably and won easily in a race that is working out very well: six horses have since run and all have either won or placed. He’s well drawn to race prominently, and the Geegeez Pace Map suggests team Ballydole may dominate from flag fall. I’d certainly expect Highbury to be in the top four after a furlong, in the perfect spot to pounce. There looks to be so much more to come from him, and he’ll no doubt relish this further step up in distance and bounce off the ground, which is a question for some. I’d make him favourite.

 

 

Ryan More rides Illinois, possibly why he’s favourite -I suspect were he on Highbury, they’d be the other way round. Or so I keep telling myself! That may be indicative of what the team expects but I’m not sure. In any case, Illinois looked uncomfortable around Lingfield on faster ground, his previous runs on a softer surface. He hung up the straight with an awkward head-carriage, and on that basis, at 2/1 or so, I wanted to oppose.

Maybe it was the undulating course, or an off day, but he looked far from happy and stayed on at the one pace, for all he beat the rest easily; and, of course, he bumped into The Derby runner-up. I wasn’t convinced he was crying out for further either, but I’m prepared to eat humble pie on that score. Aidan’s other two have questions on fast ground also, and I’d like to think that both the stable #1 and #2 can’t be wrong here, for all it’s happened before.

Having said that, Grosvenor Square has it in him to run into a place, entitled to improve on his effort at Chester which was his first start of the season. He shaped there as if he’d relish a stamina test, if handling Good to Firm, and I’d expect him to take a fair step forward. He may also be happier around this more galloping expanse.

Birdman could be staying on into the places if handling the ground, an unknown, but historically this goes to horses stepping up further in trip from their last start, who haven’t yet shown their hand over 1m5f+, which he did when winning a Listed race last time. Those running over such a distance when last seen are 0/29, 5p in this race, but that's clearly a stat which is there to be broken. I just feel there’s a chance he’ll lack the tactical pace required.

Mina Rashid could also make the frame for all, as previously discussed, historically this hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for bigger priced horses. The form of Chester is yet to be tested and I don’t like the fact he wears a hood – that suggests he could get worked up pre-race in this carnival atmosphere and you do not want to be pulling on your first start over 1m6f, in a Royal Ascot Group 2. It looks a fair step up, but Andrew Balding knows what’s needed to win this race - he took it with Dashing Willoughby in 2019 - which is worth something and, if settling, he could run a nice race if you prefer an each-way stab at something. At least we know he’ll handle the ground and he shapes like a stayer in the making. I wasn’t too taken with any others.

The more I look at this race, the more bullish I become on 7/2 Highbury’s chances, what could possibly go wrong?! Maybe Grosvenor Square or Mina Rashid will chase him home, for those who like to play the forecasts, but I'm try to get the current favourite beaten!

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3.45 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (1m, Group 2, 4yo+ fillies and mares)

Preview by Matt Bisogno.

The Duke Of Cambridge, formerly Windsor Forest, Stakes is a mile Group 2 usually run on the straight track for older fillies and mares. This year, it moves to the round course. Since its inception in 2004, 17 of the 20 winners were four-year-olds and only Aljazzi in 2018 has won for five-year-olds and up since 2008. This is interesting because the current joint-favourites are both aged five.

They are last year's winner Rogue Millennium and the Gosdens-trained Laurel. Let's cover the Rogue first. Naturally, course and distance are no problem but she came into the race in much better form twelve months ago; then, she was dropping back a quarter mile in trip having run second at a big price in the G2 Middleton Stakes at York. That extra stamina proved to be the clincher as she ground down Random Harvest by a neck at the line. This season, she's run just once, a taking enough prep at the Curragh over a mile (G2, good) when never nearer than at the finish; the stiffer test here will suit better and she ought to come on for the run, but with so many less exposed fillies in opposition she's hardly a value price.

In her third season racing and with just five career starts under her belt, one couldn't describe Laurel as a hardy type (see what I did there?!) but she is commensurately unexposed. Those five starts comprise a Newmarket fillies' novice debut score, two Kempton all-weather wins (one at Listed level), a close second in the Group 1 Sun Chariot and a clunk when last seen in the 2023 Lockinge. So, we've not witnessed her on track for over a year and she has only a single piece of form to justify her price; granted, it's a strong piece of form, but it was recorded in October 2022.

Let's cast the net across the four-year-old cohort as they're 8/1 and bigger as I write. And, with this stiff mile taking some getting, I like the 'turn back' angle: horses shortening in trip from their last run. Historically that has most often brought into play the Princess Margaret Stakes at Epsom and the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket. A filly who stepped out in both is Running Lion, who was a fair second on her seasonal bow at HQ having over-raced in that small field, before enduring a hideously luckless passage down the inner at Epsom on Derby day.

Trained by John and Thady, and ridden by Oisin, Running Lion hasn't tried as short as a mile in her last six outings but she was previously unbeaten in three at the trip. With enough pace around to help her settle and with the slightly wider track at Ascot to mitigate for traffic problems, she's an interesting player.

It might be that the Epsom race is queenmaker in this year's Duke Of Cambridge, with three of the first four home - respectively the winner, 3rd and 4th, Breege, Royal Dress and Julia Augusta - as well as Running Lion re-opposing. It was an archetypically messy race on the Epsom cambers and bears reviewing. The first image below is just inside the final quarter mile with Running Lion (all green) locked up on the rail, the yellow of Julia Augusta and the light green with lilac cap of Breege in the clear; red striped cap is Royal Dress having a shoulder barge with Chic Colombine, also in the highlighted box...

 

 

And this is at the furlong pole: Running Lion eased off, Julia Augusta no more to give, Breege - unimpeded - falls in for the win from the fast-finishing Chic Colombine and Royal Dress.

 

 

The question is, how would things have panned out granted smooth transit for all runners? It's a puzzle and obviously somewhat subjective; my feeling is that Royal Dress would have won. Placing Running Lion, beaten less than four lengths, is nigh on impossible. What is easier to posit is that Julia Augusta and Breege were least inconvenienced, the winner not being far enough clear of the third (and the eighth?) to expect to confirm placings. Claro?!

In any case, Breege's best form has come with some give and, as you can probably tell, I'm looking elsewhere for my play. Royal Dress, by Night Of Thunder out of a Dynaformer mare, is unexposed at a mile and her pedigree says she ought to keep rolling all the way to the Ascot lollipop. A slow maturing type she doesn't have an admirable win record but may have been waiting for a stiffer test of this nature. Having won a mile soft ground Listed race at Goodwood on her four-year-old debut she would have arrived here unbeaten in 2024 in more fortuitous circumstances.

The other 'turn back' filly is Sea The Lady, trained in France by Christopher Head (formerly of Big Rock and Blue Rose Cen fame). In what seems to be something of a carousel of comings and goings at Head's yard, this filly arrived from Yann Barberot's over the winter and ran an encouraging stable debut when third in a Longchamp Group 3 at ten furlongs. She travelled well and exhibited a nice gear change before flattening out there: perhaps that was lack of race fitness, perhaps stamina running out, perhaps the very soft ground, and most likely a combination of those factors.

Back in trip, with a race under her belt and for a trainer who has shown he can target big pots at Ascot, she's at least an interesting runner. There is the niggle, however, that having been bought by UK breeders for €300,000 as a broodmare prospect she could be a(n expensive) ticket for the very good owners' luncheon. In short, she's hard to weigh up, the balance of her form likely not good enough.

One to have plied much of her recent trade over further is Novus, beaten a whisker by Royal Dress last time in that Goodwood Listed contest. She has form to put herself on the podium but probably would have preferred softer turf. While, of the recent pure milers, Ocean Jewel won a Group 2 at the Curragh last time and was unlucky in the run on her first try at this trip in the G1 Matron Stakes last September. Unlucky she may have been but she was nearly ten lengths behind the winner, with Rogue Millennium some way ahead that day. Still, she's quite lightly raced and unexposed at a mile and, consequently, a player.

Orchid Bloom wasn't too far behind Ocean Jewel last time but I don't see why placings should be reversed, all other things being equal.

In the end, I'm going back to the beginning, and the Princess Margaret form: I think 12/1 Royal Dress and 14/1 Running Lion are both backable at those prices.

 

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4.25 Prince Of Wales's Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Preview by Rory Delargy

With warmer temperatures and a receding rain threat ensuring quick ground at Ascot, it’s hard to see a shock in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. The front pair in the market stand out on official ratings and both have shown their very best form on fast turf; so, while it’s tempting to find an each-way angle into races at the Royal meeting, sometimes you have to simply play the cards you’ve been dealt. In short, this looks a shootout between Auguste Rodin and Inspiral, and the former edges the verdict at the current prices.

White Birch seemed to beat Auguste Rodin on merit in the Tattersalls Gold Cup but while Joseph Murphy’s star is best with some cut in the ground, Auguste Rodin’s best form last year came when the turf was very quick. All three of his blowouts came on good or softer, including on watered turf at Meydan, whereas four runs on good to firm or firm resulted in wins in the Derby, Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Turf. That’s quite a haul for a “twicer”.

It's hard to be certain that the ground is the reason for Auguste Rodin’s inconsistency and he obviously won the Group 1 Futurity on heavy as a juvenile; but it’s also tough to deny that his firm ground efforts have been those of a superstar, his form on softer of late not in the same class. He can have no excuses, it seems.

Inspiral has been rerouted here from the Queen Anne, and while I think that’s the right call given she seems best around a turn, there has to be some debate about her stamina for a stiff ten furlongs. She won the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over this trip at Santa Anita, again showing her liking for fast turf and a turning track, but the sharp circuit in California would place less emphasis on stamina than Ascot’s more demanding track.

Her best form gives her every chance and her draw is a positive as long as Kieran Shoemark has the confidence to keep her wide, but I wonder whether the tactics will be to tuck in at the back of the field in order to attempt to conserve her stamina. I suspect that will indeed be the case and I’m not a fan of dropping in from a wide draw at this track, as it makes you a hostage to fortune.

Talking of the jockey’s confidence, I wonder whether Shoemark has had his dented by defeats on Inspiral in the Lockinge and Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup. He was outmanoeuvred tactically in both races but was riding mares who – by their trainer’s admission – were not fit to do themselves justice. Shoemark is filling big shoes at Royal Ascot this week, and I’d have preferred to see him ride a big winner to get the proverbial monkey off his back. I’d be genuinely pleased to see him do that here but the percentage call in a situation like this is to side with Ryan Moore, who certainly won’t be second guessing what defeat might mean.

Recommended: 1pt win Auguste Rodin @ 7/4 (William Hill)

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5.05 Royal Hunt Cup (1m, Class 2, 3yo+ Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

My biggest headache for every Ascot meeting is the straight track draw - and, in truth, I’m no closer to figuring it out. I will go through the data shortly but there is only so much it can tell you. Last year, and in 2021, the places were dominated by very high drawn horses, yet the winners in those years came from stalls 7 and 4.

Gone are the days where anything can be confidently ruled out because of the draw, but is there any advantage at all?

 

 

Concentrate on the blue line on the first graph above, taken from the geegeez racecard DRAW tab, which shows the PRB3 (average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) in big field mile handicaps on good or better ground. There are some peaks and troughs but the overall feel I get is that you can run well from pretty much any draw.

What we see in the draw and pace combination graph is far more interesting and useful. This shows that there is a significant pace bias towards those that are held up but it also tells us that if you are held up, or race in mid division, the draw seems to have almost no impact on your chance overall. That’s not to say that in every race the low draws have the same chance as the high draws, it’s more a case of the high draws are favoured just as often as the low draws. That’s an important distinction and it’s an acknowledgement that there can be biases from race to race, but they are difficult to predict.

The other takeaway from the above graph is that prominent racers and front runners tend to perform worse when drawn higher. My guess at an explanation for that would be you tend to see slightly more runners come near side and that perhaps creates more pace pressure and competition for the lead amongst those drawn higher. That may or may not be a factor.

There may be some draw bias clues from Tuesday’s races (the second and third races in particular) but without having seen those races at the time of writing, the best clue we may get about the draw bias is to see where the pace is positioned on the track. Here is the geegeez racecard PACE map for the Royal Hunt Cup.

 

 

It is interesting that there are only two real pace angles in here and the fate of the low drawn horses may well rest with what Neil Callan decides to do aboard The Gatekeeper from stall 14. Hollie Doyle is expected to simply pop Regheeb out from stall 31 and go straight forward, near to the near side rail, but Neil Callan will either stay in the middle or go nearside (he surely won’t switch to the far side?). If he traverses to the near side then the low draws are in very big trouble as they could end up in a small group headed by Thunder Ball and all the real pace will then be near side.

So, looking at the pace map, I wouldn’t be surprised if the middle and stands’ side groups merge into one in the final few furlongs (similar to 2022) and in that year the middle-ish draws seemed to do well with draws on the flank slightly underperforming.

If The Gatekeeper comes near side then I can see lower draws struggling so I’d say the safest area of the draw might be around the 19 mark, as that covers middle and high, but I may be wrong!

I’m never keen on unproven stamina in this race and that means I’m immediately putting a line through Wild Tiger, even if stall 20 might end up the almost ideal position. I also think Real Gain might be a little too slow for this and ideally suited by further so I’m against him too.

Things finally fell right for Sonny Liston last time out for him to get an overdue success but he’s 11lbs higher than when runner up in this last year so I’ve got question marks over how well handicapped he is now. He’s in stall 19 so could be well placed.

The ground might have been a bit too testing for Coeur d’Or in the Balmoral here last season but I’d still have expected him to perform better given he wasn’t far from the pace in a race where there was a massive bias in favour of those up there early on, so I’m not convinced he’s got what it takes to win this either.

Metal Merchant surely wants softer and Streets Of Gold looks a proper 7f horse to my eye whilst Aerion Power is 5lbs higher than when 4th last year and possibly badly drawn in stall 1. That’s quite a few of the fancied horses with some sort of negative against them (in my opinion).

I do like Beshtani, given he was beaten just a short head by a subsequent winner at Epsom and gets to race here off the same mark. He looks a winner waiting to happen but I think there is a bit of risk attached backing anything drawn in single figures here, although stall 9 is obviously the highest of the single figures. This will be the fastest ground he’s faced and he was ridden fairly prominently at Epsom, which could be a negative here, but I like his general profile. If I was having a a third bet in the race, he would be it, but he’s short enough so I’m going to recommend two ‘punts’ at bigger prices.

PEROTTO was sent off favourite for this last year off a 5lb lower mark and it’s not difficult to see why. He won the 2021 Britannia Stakes off 99 and, having lost his way under Marcus Tregoning, he’d made a promising debut for Roger Varian in the Victoria Cup off a mark of just 97 and been dropped a pound since then.

He was ridden too close to the pace in last year’s race and didn’t really fire, although finishing 10th wasn’t a terrible effort. He ran better in a first time hood on his next start at Sandown when winning a good handicap off a 7lb lower mark than today. The next three home all won shortly after so that was a very good effort.

He got bogged down in soft ground in the Golden Mile at Goodwood next time (also drawn badly in that race) but still ran okay, and then he showed his true form on better ground on the round course here on Shergar Cup day, doing well to chase down the leader in a very steadily run race.

He’s gone up 3lbs for that and hasn’t been seen since as he reportedly had a setback in the Spring, but Roger Varian has stated he’s happy with him and his runners don’t normally need a racecourse outing before they show their form so he should be fit enough. Stall 17 is probably a good draw but I’d definitely be going win only as he obviously comes with risks attached.

Hopefully Tom Marquand switches him off early and allows him to come through horses and if that happens the top price of 20/1 could look very good, with the more generally available 14s and 16s just about acceptable. If going win only though, you’ll likely get a much bigger price on the Exchanges (available at 25 at the time of writing).

One at a very big price I wouldn’t mind having a small each way bet on is SILENT FILM. He’s run some decent races here in the past, finishing runner up off a 2lb higher mark in a 7f cavalry charge just under 2 years ago and finding himself too poorly placed when 4th to Perotto at the Shergar Cup over the round mile last season.

He was 2nd to Ouzo in Meydan in January, who won again next time out, and I’m particularly interested in his 10f 3rd at Epsom in April in a race where the 1st and 5th have both won since and the runner up has filled that same spot again in a big handicap on Derby day.

It does concern me that his worst efforts have all come on good to firm but all his winning has been on good so I’m not sure if that’s just a bit of a weird coincidence. Something always tends to run into the frame (at least) at 33/1+ so I wouldn’t put anyone off a small bet at that price (50/1 top price).

In summary, all draws being equal, I’d say 12/1 Beshtani is the most likely winner of this year’s renewal but in search for a little bit of ‘value’ I’m going for a small win only wager on 20/1 Perotto (will be bigger on the exchanges) and a small each way bet on 50/1 Silent Film.

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5.40 Kensington Palace Stakes (1m, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

Preview by our own David Massey

Two things you really should take note of when looking at this year’s renewal of the Kensington Palace Stakes are - one, it will take place on the straight course, which isn’t usually the case; and because of that, two, you’ll have had a pretty good clue as to whether there’s any draw biases as the Hunt Cup is the race on the card before this.

I suppose there’s a third thing as well, and that’s that there’s not a lot of pace on here, not on paper at least. Timeform suggest a very strong pace, but I don’t think it will be any more than evenly run. The geegeez pace map is below with, essentially, no horse in the 'led' column (which is to say, no horse has on average led in its last three starts - Moonspirit and Doha are the closest to that profile).

 

 

Top of my list is Ed Bethell’s Elim, who was progressive on the all-weather throughout the winter of 22/23 and came back from a year’s absence to be sent off favourite for what looked, at the time, an ordinary Redcar handicap a month ago. She did nothing wrong in finishing a close fourth, travelling well but just getting a bit tired late in the piece, looking very much like the run would bring her on.

As it turns out, that handicap has worked out better than expected, with winner Ron O following up in a warm race at York last week, and second, Arctic Mountain, after winning at Lingfield on next start, being sent off a very short price from a 5lb higher mark to also win at York last week. Sadly, tack issues meant we couldn’t see whether Arctic Mountain was well handicapped or not as he didn’t complete, but what we do know is that Elim races off the same mark as Redcar and looks potentially well treated here.

The nicely-bred Summer Of Love will probably want a bit further in time, but this stiff mile will suit, and don’t be put off by the fact she’s only seen the all-weather so far. I wrote an article last week about where last-time-out winners at Ascot come from, and the all-weather - particularly Newcastle and Kempton - comes out as a positive. All the same, 8-1 looks the rock-bottom price given her form is by no means the strongest in the race, and she does need to improve again.

Instead, let’s finish off with a couple of flyers at huge prices.

Farhh To Shy is going to be a 40-1 chance, give or take, and that’s the sort of price that, for a horse that will travel as well as anything, is going to give you a bit of excitement deep into the race. Watch her finish third to Cell Sa Beela here last October - sent off 14 on Betfair, she trades 6-4 at the furlong pole and you’d think it was a matter of how far she wins by. Sadly, she finds little off the bridle, not for the first time (or the last) and she does no more than hang on for third.

It was a similar story back at Ascot here in May, where again she travelled up like a good ‘un, but found three-fifths of naff all off the snaffle, and ended up sixth after looking like a place was far more likely. In truth, she’s a back-to-lay here for those so inclined, but one of these days she’s going to win a race without coming off the bridle and if there is more pace on here than I think there is, that can only be a help.

At 66-1, Canoodled is getting a fiver each-way lobbed in her direction too. There are too many moderate efforts on her report card to be confident about her chances, but there’s no way she can be the price she is based on her fourth in the aforementioned Ascot 7f handicap that Cell Sa Beela won last season (Farhh To Shy third), beaten just half a length and if it had been a mile and not 7f, I rather suspect she might have won. You can argue it was a muddling contest but she shapes like this stiff mile on quick ground is what she wants to showcase her talents. She ran on from the back at Epsom last time to finish midfield, but that track didn’t play to her strengths at all, whereas this will.

 

6.15 Windsor Castle Stakes (5f, Listed, 2yo)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

Since being upgraded to Listed status in 2004 all 20 winners have been male (just 2 fillies placed from 56 runners) who had run 1-3 times (44 losers had run 4 or more times) and had run in the last 43 days (23 losers had not). They had all finished top six last time out with all 20 horses that finished 7th or worse last time out also finishing unplaced here.

Only one winner had their last run on the all-weather (from the 34 to have tried) when the maiden Flashmans Papers caused a massive shock at 100/1 in 2008. He had though made his debut on turf at Windsor.

Maiden winners aren't that uncommon however with, as well as that 2008 winner, the 1997, 1999, 2002, 2019, 2020 and last year's winner Big Evs all scoring for the first time in the Windsor Castle. It's worth noting that they had all finished either second or third last time out. The last horse to win on debut was the Sir Michael Stoute filly Dazzle who scored as the 7/2 favourite back in 1996 when the race was run as a Class 2 contest.

15 of the last 18 winners had suffered a defeat at least once in their career with all 3 exceptions coming into the race having won their only start. The last 18 runners to have won both their last two starts have been beaten with just two making the frame.

Wesley Ward has won the race twice but all of his other 15 runners have finished unplaced including his last 12 runners (he last won the race in 2014), all of his 10 fillies and 13 of his 14 runners that were 10/1 or shorter in the betting.

Shocks are common in the Windsor Castle with the aforementioned Flashmans Papers at 100/1 and Wesley Ward's Strike The Tiger at 33/1 being the biggest priced winners this century. We've also had two 16/1 winners, three 20/1 winners and a 22/1 winner since 2006.

Horses drawn 12+ have won 10 of the last 14 renewals with three of the four exceptions coming from either stall 1 or 2.

Runners from Sandown's National Stakes have a good record since 2015 (32121400) with both 2017 winner Sound And Silence at 16/1 and 2021 winner Chipotle at 22/1 having competed in that contest. In fact in 2021 the Sandown race provided the 22/1 winner and 4th at 66/1 from just two qualifiers.

Inexplicably the 2nd and 3rd from the 2023 National Stakes disappointed badly in this race last year but I'm going to keep the faith with that trial race and go with a horse that will hopefully be going the other way round i.e. run well here having disappointed badly in this year's National Stakes.

Richard Hannon's HAWAIIAN was a ready winner of a maiden first time up at Newbury despite stumbling at the start. That race couldn't have worked out much better with the runner up winning by four lengths next time, the 3rd finishing second to Epsom Woodcote scorer Teej A on his next start, the 4th winning next time out before running third in a Listed race at York and the 5th came out to run The Actor to a neck in what has turned out to be a very hot Newmarket maiden. No wonder he was sent off a short priced favourite for the National where he was no bigger than 6/5 but ran no race at all and was beaten by the furlong pole. The trainer was happy to blame the soft ground that night and if we can strike a line through that run he could be a very big price given the form of his previous effort.

I'm also going to suggest a small bet on the Kevin Ryan runner END OF STORY who was another to win a maiden that has worked out very well but flopped next time when well supported in the betting. That run came in the Woodcote at Epsom where he led for a long way but didn't seem to see out the 6f and was beaten by the time they entered the final furlong. Back to a more conventional track and over 5f I think he could be worth another chance at a massive price.

SELECTIONS: HAWAIIIAN 1/2pt EW 18/1 / END OF STORY 1/4pt EW 50/1 (4 places)

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And that's half time in our quartet of daily previews. Hopefully we've - and you've - hit the target in the first half but, if not, there are 14 more conundrums to work through on Thursday and Friday. Join us for those!

Good luck.

Matt

Royal Ascot 2024: Day One Preview, Tips

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Where does the time go? Barely a week ago, or so it seems, we were cheering home the winner of the Cheltenham varietal of the Gold Cup and now, actually three months later, the Ascot iteration is upon us. No fences, and no racecourse prefix - it is, simply, the Gold Cup - but that's not until Day 3/Thursday, the cornerstone of five sumptuous afternoons of equine action fit for a King.

There are fewer overseas challengers this season, more's the pity, and some of the races look a little weaker than standard, truth be told; but those are the negatives done with. On the plus side, it's an uber competitive week of racing with a far broader array of trainers and jockeys likely to hit the limelight than was the case in mid-March for that other showcase event. And, in the Coronation Stakes, we have what looks one of the best renewals for many a year if they all, or nearly all, stand their ground. That, again, is for another day.

To Tuesday, Day One, and an overture that comprises a trio of Group 1 contests as well as the Group 2 Coventry Stakes: music to the ears, indeed.

After the success of last year's previews, where a nasty dose of the Covid lurgy necessitated a request for some assistance, I've again called in some crack writers to share the coverage of this year's Royal meeting. Specifically, I've asked six top scribes to share their thoughts on one race each per day Tuesday to Friday, leaving the seventh for me. That made for a lovely blend of styles last year, as well as some cracking winners (headlined by Gavin Priestley's excellent 33/1 shout - freely available for some time after publication - on Bradsell), and it's also an opportunity for a few of the best tipsters around to 'show and tell' their modus operandi.

As I always say when I write these mega-posts in the big meeting weeks, it's the same amount of effort that goes into the research whether the picks win or lose; so please try to keep an eye on each contributor's 'process' - how they present their case - as well as their performance in this tiny four-races-each sample.

If you like what you read, you can check out more of their work at the links provided; but, of course, this is the geegeez.co.uk Royal Ascot preview, so allow your editor to kick things off in the Queen Anne Stakes...

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes (1m, Group 1, 4yo+)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

A straight track mile Group 1 for older horses and one that has thrown its share of shocks amidst the shorties in recent years. To wit, in the last six renewals, we've had winners at 1/6 and 2/7, as well as two 33/1 bombs, most recently Triple Time last year. There was also 14/1 Lord Glitters in that list so, in the absence of anything remotely odds-on-looking, maybe we should aim for a bold start to proceedings...

Fourteen are declared, though not Inspiral, one time ante post favourite for the race. Her red, white and blue Cheveley Park Stud silks will instead by worn by Rab Havlin on Audience. The five-year-old gelded son of Iffraaj was last seen making all in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on his first attempt at a mile. Since 2011, Canford Cliffs, Frankel, Ribchester, Palace Pier and Baaeed have all completed the Lockinge-Queen Anne double but none started bigger than 11/8 for the second leg.

Audience is quite lightly raced for a five year old - just 13 starts to date - and his best form is on decent ground which, after a lot of heavy shower chat, looks like being the prevailing terrain for Tuesday. He's a front runner typically, which was how Circus Maximus got it done in 2020 under a masterful Ryan Moore ride; but, as far as I can tell, that's the only front-running winner since at least 2008. It's just very tough to lead all the way on the straight mile in a double-figure field.

One horse who managed to do that was Big Rock, a six-length winner of the QEII Stakes in a field of eleven on British Champions Day last October. The ground there was soft and he was trained by Christopher Head, who had a strike rate of 27% in France in 2023. The ground here is good and the trainer is now Maurizio Guarnieri, who has a strike rate of 7.5% in 2024 (9/119) in France. Big Rock's owner, Yeguada Centurion, under chief decision-maker Leopoldo Fernández Pujals, removed all of their horses from Head late last year, a migration that also includes Blue Rose Cen, entered later in the week.

Neither Big Rock nor Blue Rose Cen has yet come close to matching their form under Head for new handler Guarnieri, and that is a big concern. Big Rock was sixth, 15 lengths behind Audience in the Lockinge, having been sent off an 11/4 shot. It's a leap of faith to think he can reverse placings even allowing for the fact that he fluffed the start somewhat. In any case, a cleaner break would likely have resulted in him contesting the lead with Audience, an act in favour of neither of them in terms of their win prospects.

Facteur Cheval was the closest horse to Big Rock in the QEII, and his sole start since was a short head verdict in the Group 1 Dubai Turf (1m1f, good) at Meydan in March. He held several positions during the race before just getting the best of a duel in the final furlong. As mentioned, his sire Ribchester won this race, and as well as silver here last autumn, he was an unlucky second in the G1 Sussex Stakes last summer. He is a top notcher who handles most underfoot conditions, stays a straight mile well, is tractable in terms of run style, and may have improved from four to five.

Roger Varian saddles the progressive Charyn. Third in last season's St James's Palace Stakes on the round mile at the Royal meeting, he'd started to look exposed by late summer; but this season began with back-to-back scores at Doncaster and Sandown before a runner up slot behind Audience in the Lockinge. Although the form figures look good, however, there has been no breakout in his ratings: he looks a rock solid 115 (or so) horse. Maybe that will be good enough to win this year but there is also a slight niggle about his ability to handle good to firm, should it be that quick on the opening day. He's yet to race on it and, by Dark Angel, might just be better suited to a little ease.

Maljoom was a big sectional eye-catcher in the 2022 St James's Palace Stakes, as I flagged at the time. Alas, he was then not sighted for 15 months before running down the field in the G2 Joel Stakes (1m, good to firm) at Newmarket last September. On his only subsequent run, in the Queen Anne trial race at Ascot seven weeks ago, he was too keen and taken to the front before running out of gas towards the finish. A bigger field with some pace to aim at ought to see him settle better, though that '22 SJP was not a vintage renewal (though nor especially is the '24 QA).

Hayley Turner is almost as adept at riding this straight track as Jamie Spencer, and she executed the waiting tactics to perfection when bringing Docklands with the proverbial withering run to snaffle the Britannia Handicap a year ago. They almost repeated the feat in the valuable Balmoral Handicap last autumn but didn't get the clearest transit and had to settled for third of 20; that off a 10lb higher mark. This season, Docklands has run second in a pair of Listed contests, form which doesn't obviously translate to a podium finish in a Group 1. But we know the track and trip will suit, he's ground agnostic and will be given every chance; he just might not be good enough.

It's really tricky to know what to make of Dolayli. Francis-Henri Graffard's five-year-old has been running mainly on all-weather and over further in recent times and has yet to race on a quicker turf surface than good to soft. In spite of those imponderables, his form is decent: six wins from ten lifetime starts and a length fourth in the G1 Prix Ganay last time (1m1 1/2f, soft). I'd expect Mickael Barzalona to be patient with him and, if you don't believe Big Rock's official rating (I don't), then he's very little to find with the best of the rest. But this will be quite a different examination from those he's sat hitherto.

Poker Face looks relatively exposed but did get to within a length and a quarter of Charyn in a Sandown Group 2 this season, giving the winner three pounds; on that basis alone, a price disparity of 20/1 vs 3/1 might be wrong, though it's more an argument against Charyn's price than for Poker Face's in my book. PF was another far back in the Lockinge though he did win a mile Group 2 at Longchamp last September.

We're into the long grass now, where Brave Emperor was progressing nicely, from a German G3 to an Italian G2 to a valuable Qatari stakes race. The Hong Kong Champions Mile came next, and he was well beaten - eminently forgivable - before a slightly more difficult to excuse tail end finish in the Ganay. He wasn't beaten far there and may not get nine furlongs. Archie Watson is to be noted at the Royal meeting, with five winners to his name already, including three last year; but it's not easy to see this one getting his week off to a flyer.

Third in last year's 2000 Guineas, Royal Scotsman failed to back that effort up in three subsequent Group 1 races in 2023. Dropped to Group 3 level last time, he made all in the Diomed Stakes at Epsom. His run style is normally held up, however, and I expect Jamie Spencer will revert to type - for horse and rider - here. With plenty of Group placed form as a juvenile as well, he's not completely out of the question.

Like Docklands, Witch Hunter was a handicap winner at Royal Ascot 2023, in his case over seven furlongs in the Buckingham Palace Stakes. That man Spencer did the steering on the 50/1 shot then but he's deserted the Richard Hannon-trained five-year-old in favour of Royal Scotsman.

Karl Burke sends Flight Plan, winner of a Leopardstown Group 2 (1m, good) on Irish Champions Weekend. This chap was thumped on seasonal debut in the Lockinge before a slightly more hopeful performance when 3rd in a G3 over an inadequate seven furlongs. Upped to a mile here, he should do better; but he will have to do a good bit better.

And what of Cairo? He was 2nd in the Irish 2000 Guineas last spring when trained by Aidan O'Brien; but his best efforts since were a neck defeat to Brave Emperor in Doha and, since changing to the Alice Haynes yard, 2nd in a Listed race over a mile and a furlong at Leopardstown last time. He was unlucky in running there, without suggesting it would have changed the result, and he could conceivably travel well through the first half of the race. He has a good bit to find on the figures though.

And rounding out the field is Hi Royal. My first instinct was to strike a line through this fella's chance, but then a couple of things caught my eye. Firstly, he's a four-year-old and remains a colt where plenty in this field have been de-tackled. Second, and more interesting, is the record of his trainer Kevin Ryan with older horses at Royal Ascot. Since 2013, he's sent out 21 four- or five-year-olds that went off 33/1 or shorter. Six of them won and another four were placed. Of course, one of that sextet was 33/1 Queen Anne winner Triple Time twelve months ago.

 

 

As I write, Hi Royal is 66/1 so wouldn't fit the 'system' criteria, but he has a run two back that gives him a bit of a form squeak in any case. That was in the G3 Earl of Sefton over nine furlongs at Newmarket, where he was just run down late on. The drop back to a mile in the Lockinge last time saw him get closer than a number of better fancied rivals here having been agitated in the stalls and possibly losing his race there. He's ridden here, as he was at Newbury, by a certain Ryan Moore and I'm inclined to think he's worthy of a tiny speculative wager.

Queen Anne Summary

The opening race of Royal Ascot 2024, the Queen Anne Stakes, is a real headscratcher. The best form line by a way is Big Rock's G1 course and distance score last October; but the horse has run only once since - very moderately - and that on his debut for a new stable that generally fires at a much lower level, in terms of both quality and strike rate, than his previous conditioners. Taking Big Rock out of the equation, Audience recorded a breakout effort last time in the G1 Lockinge on his first try at a mile. It's possible he could continue to progress at the new trip but his run style - going from the front - is similar to Big Rock's and also Brave Emperor's on a track and at a trip that rarely favours contested early speed.

 

 

The solid one is Facteur Cheval, who comes here off the back of a Group 1 win, albeit over nine furlongs and in Dubai; but he can back that up with placed efforts in four straight European G1's beforehand. Therein lies his problem: he does tend to find one too good and, at a price unforgiving of such a trait, he may again frustrate win players. Meanwhile, Charyn has hit a winning groove and some consistency in his performance ratings: they're unsexy but might be good enough. I just don't like his price.

Bits and pieces of place cases can be made for almost all of the rest and it might be a race to bet a couple of rags at massive prices. Better that than have a good win bet on a fancied horse that finishes second in my book. As I say, you can almost pays your money and takes your chance, so it is in that "I'm sorry, I haven't a clue" context that I offer most tentatively 20/1 Royal Scotsman who comes here off a win and was 3rd in the 2022 Coventry; and 66/1 Hi Royal whose price demands a nicker each way - four places at least!

It will at least get ever so slightly easier on occasion after this...

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3.05 Coventry Stakes (6f, Group 2, 2yo)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

First run in 1890 and named after the 9th Earl of Coventry, the Coventry Stakes is arguably the premier juvenile race at Royal Ascot. Winners of this race often go on to compete in higher-profile events later in their careers. Notable recent winners include Caravaggio (2016), Buratino (2015), War Command (2013), Dawn Approach (2012) and Canford Cliffs (2009).

Key Trends (Last 5 Years):

Previous Runs: All five winners and 14 of the 15 placed horses had run once or twice before the Coventry.

Trainer: Archie Watson has had 1 winner from 5 runners with 3 places, yielding an each-way return of +£8.80.

Draw Bias: Recent winners were drawn in stalls 3, 6, 17, 2, and 6, suggesting a slight preference for low to mid draws.

Top Contenders:

Camille Pissarro (Aidan O’Brien) - Impressive debut winner at Navan; narrowly beaten (a head) in the Group 3 Marble Hill last time. Strong credentials for top connections and likely to handle quicker ground well.

Cowardofthecounty (Joseph O’Brien) - Battled well to win on debut on soft to heavy ground at the Curragh. Needs to prove himself on a quicker surface but is open to plenty of improvement if he does.

Midnight Strike (Joseph O’Brien) - Stylish winner on debut; third in the Marble Hill (half a length behind Camille Pissarro) last time. Should be competitive if adapting to quicker ground conditions. Oisin Murphy is booked for the ride. Stablemate of Cowardofthecounty.

Andesite (Karl Burke) - Overcame greenness to win a York novice on debut last month, with the form holding up well. Ascot’s stiffer track could play to his strengths, and he’s the sole Karl Burke runner in the line-up.

Catalyse (Richard Fahey) - Easy debut winner at Hamilton 16 days ago. Steps up in class but looks open to significant improvement and is the pick of retained jockey James Doyle.

Electrolyte (Archie Watson) - Comfortable winner at Ayr on debut, handles good ground well. Solid contender despite retained jockey James Doyle opting for Catalyse. A good each-way contender for a trainer with an excellent race record.

Arran (Paul & Oliver Cole) - Front-running winner at Newmarket on debut in April; form boosted by subsequent winners. Has potential for further improvement and is another with each-way claims.

Coventry Stakes Verdict

The Coventry Stakes is always an exciting race, and this year is no exception. Among the favourites, I prefer Cowardofthecounty over Camille Pissarro. However, considering the current odds, I see the value in backing Andesite and Electrolyte.

Betting Advice: Initially, I considered Electrolyte for an each-way bet, but I've decided to keep Andesite onside as well.

Electrolyte: £3 each way at 28/1 (William Hill & bet365, paying 5 places)
Andesite: £11 win at 9/1

I wouldn't recommend taking lower odds than these. However, if Electrolyte places, a small profit is gained.

 

 

3.45 King Charles III Stakes (5f, Group 1, 3yo+)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

We have had 11 winners from the 27 renewals of the Kings Stand, now King Charles III Stakes, since 1997 that have been trained outside of the UK and Ireland (France, America, Hong Kong, Spain and Australia) making it the most 'international' race run at Royal Ascot in the last quarter of a century. This year Ascot has attracted a single overseas runner, Asfoora from Australia. Ireland's contribution in that time period consists only of dual winner Sole Power who is the one Irish-trained horse to win the Kings Charles III from the 33 runners to have tried; but I'm banking on that all changing this year with one of my best bets of the meeting.

VALIANT FORCE did me and my subscribers a big favour at this meeting last year when winning the Norfolk at an enormous price (150/1) and I think he can follow Bradsell's lead from this race 12 months ago and come back to win the Kings Charles III as a 3yo having won a 2yo race at the Royal meeting the previous year. He's been on my radar for this ever since that win last year and this 5f speedster has done little to change my mind in four starts since. He flopped on his run prior to the Norfolk last season when tried over 6f and found his stamina stretched again over that trip when trying the Group 1 Prix Morny on his first run after the Norfolk when only 5th to Vandeek.

We didn't see him again until the Breeders Cup when, back down to 5f from a wide draw, he flew home to get beat just 1/2 length by Big Evs, closing on the winner all the way to the line. He stayed in America after that run to join Jorge Delgado where he ran 2nd over 5f on turf and 4th over 6f on dirt earlier this year. He's recently re-joined Adrian Murray and makes his first start this side of the pond since the Morny run and first run for 94 days. There have been plenty of winners of this race coming off a break including the 3yo Dominica in 2002 who won on seasonal debut.

In one of the poorest renewals of the King Charles III for many a year (there's been at least one runner in the field rated 115+ since at least 2007), with just 3lb splitting the top eight runners on official ratings, he won't be lacking in class and has nothing to find with the favourite on that run at the Breeders' Cup last year, where he travelled noticeably further than the winner.

With the ground in his favour, the stable in form and a good draw (five of the last seven winners were drawn 10+) I think he has an excellent chance of repeating his course and distance win from last year.

SELECTION: VALIANT FORCE (EW) at 16/1 general / 12/1 6 places Skybet

 

4.25 St James's Palace Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

To race four we hurtle and hopefully by this stage my esteemed blogging colleagues have got us off to a flyer. This preview is rather unoriginal in that I cannot see past the favourite, Notable Speech, who at 11/8 still looks good value to my eyes, but as I type that price is vanishing.

Before talking about the race in more depth, allow me to share some content that may be useful more generally, whatever the result of this race.

In what follows, I've had a look at all Royal Ascot Group 1s, for 3YOs only.

Since 2010, those horses officially rated 121+ (Notable Speech 122, next in 118) are 6 winners from 12 runners, 8 have placed (including all winners), for a Betfair SP Actual vs Expected of 1.17. Remarkably, they’re still performing above market expectations.

If we go back to the start of 2008 and look at Royal Ascot / Group 1s / 3YO Only / Top Rated on Official Ratings…
54 bets / 20 wins / 31 places (incl. wins) / 37% sr / +22 SP / +32 BFSP / BFAE 1.37

Not bad. Looking at those sent off 10/1 or shorter SP improves those figures to 20/47, 31p, +39 BFSP, and at the last three meetings, 6/9,8p, +16 BFSP.

Within those criteria, if we just focus on those that finished in the first two on their last start…
32 bets / 16 wins / 22 places / 50% sr / +27 SP / +34 BFSP / BFAE 1.47

This is a decent little micro angle to keep onside at the Royal meeting moving forwards, with this race, the Commonwealth Cup and the Coronation Stakes the 3YO races in focus.

Moving back to the St James's Palace Stakes...

Notable Speech – of course he hits this micro angle, and indeed horses in this race who were sent off favourite having been last seen winning the 2000 Guineas, are 2/3, 3p. Charlie Appleby has saddled two SJP favourites: Pinatubo, who finished 2nd, and last year’s winner Coroebus, sent off 10/11 fav. Notable Speech may end up such a price.

At the previous five Royal Ascot meetings it has paid to keep Charlie Appleby and William Buick close, especially with horses aged three and who won their last start… 4/12,7p, +11 BFSP.

The yard enters this week in blistering form: in the last 14 days, 4/10, 6p, 79% of rivals beaten, against a 365 day average of 66%. It’s not a bad time for the string the come alive!

The horse… it was hard not to be impressed by Notable Speech at Newmarket on his turf debut. He’d previously had three races on the AW, easily winning a conditions stakes at Kempton on his penultimate start, a performance which had the clock watchers and sectional timing maestros purring. In the 2000 Guineas, he settled very well, looked straightforward, and had to get himself into the race on the far side, on the wing, moving up effortlessly and putting the race to bed in a matter of strides. I suspect were he following Rosallion through that race he’d have been even more impressive. It was visually stunning and of course he’s still open to stacks of improvement.

He knows how to race around a bend from his Kempton sorties and has tactical speed – that could be a big advantage here in a race which doesn’t look likely to be strongly run, on paper anyway! Buick may not want to be as far back as he was at Newmarket, but he appears the sort who can race wherever his jockey wishes to place him, given his change of gears and the ease with which he moves through a race. This will be the fastest ground Notable Speech has faced, which is an unknown, but of course he may relish it. That is the only chink I think those opposing him may cling to.

However I’m struggling to find a negative or a substantive reason from which to oppose him. He’s the best horse on all the figures and brings the best piece of recent form to the table, Rosallion subsequently winning the Irish 2000 Guineas, having got closest to Notable Speech at Newmarket. Richard Hannon’s charge is the best he’s trained apparently, but I can’t see why he overturns the form here, assuming Notable Speech runs his race, of course. He has his own questions if this is a slow pace, as he can take a firm grip and will need to settle. Maybe he will be chasing the favourite home again, and the forecast, or reverse forecast could be a way to play, if wishing to get involved for interest.

Aidan O’Brien always has the capacity to crash the party, his Henry Longfellow currently third in the market as I type. The fast ground is an unknown to him, and there's a chance he may have preferred rain. With his trainer expecting him to leave behind his poor effort in French 2000 Guineas on 12th May, maybe the Ballydoyle team will have transformed Henry as they did City of Troy! On pedigree he should improve plenty for this 1m trip, but he needs to. I would like to think he’ll be battling it out for 2nd place with Rosallion, but I suppose this game is rarely that straightforward! We shall see.

I’m firmly in the NOTABLE SPEECH camp, which may be very unoriginal but I’m minded not to be overly creative for the sake of it. I think the latter two mentioned need the favourite to underperform, and the others require all the top three to have an off day, or to themselves step forward considerably on the evidence to date. The favourite could make 11/8 look value, if you don’t mind a short price. In any case, do note some of the stats above, as they’re sure to help you land on a few winners moving forward, whether during the rest of this week, or next year!

 

'Ever fancied owning a share in a racehorse? Josh now has 11 horses in training and over 170 shareholders.

Keep informed by joining his Racing To Profit Syndicate email list for free, HERE>>>

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If you're betting placepots or jackpots (or quadpots or Scoop6) at Royal Ascot, you're much better off using Tix - it's free so check it out today!

 

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5.05 Ascot Stakes (2m4f, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap)

Preview by our own David Massey 

It would be easy enough, given that Ahorsewithnoname won this for Nicky Henderson last year, to think that this is a race dominated by jumps trainers; but that’s not really the case given Andrew Balding, Alan King and Ian Williams, twice, were also winners of this in the past five years. Granted, King and Williams are dual-purpose, but you get the drift.

The Irish trainers dominate the market this year, with Mullins, Elliott, O’Leary (sister of the suspended Tony Martin) and Jarlath Fahey training the first four in the betting; and, whilst the unexposed My Lyka is going to garner the majority of interest on what is only his second start for Willie, of that front four, if you had to have your house on one to run his race, it would have to be Pied Piper.

Far better known as a top-quality hurdler, he’s still a useful tool on the Flat and ran a cracker to be second to The Shunter in the Cesarewitch last autumn, staying on all the way to the line. He was trying to give the winner 2lb there, and it was merely another excellent effort in a raft of competitive handicaps, Flat and hurdles, that he regularly contends.

It’s worth remembering his sixth place finish in this two years ago when he didn’t get the best of runs: whilst by no means an unlucky loser, he’d surely have gone closer with a clear passage. He was trying to give winner, future Group 1 horse Coltrane, 3lb taking into account Callum Hutchinson’s 5lb on the day, hardly a shoddy effort.

Those looking for something at a bigger price might consider the evergreen Tritonic and another of the Irish contingent, Nusret.

Tritonic was third in this last year and is 5lb lower this time around. Two runs this season have been no more than satisfactory, although the sprint for the line at Southwell last time after they crawled through the race would definitely not have suited him. The question is whether he still wants to do it at the age of seven, and it’s a fair question to ask; but he’s got his conditions today, and maybe the reapplication of cheekpieces might just buck his ideas up. He has a decent draw to work from and could keep drifting in the market, as he’s not a sexy selection at all, so don’t worry if you don’t get BOG from your bookie - back it at Betfair SP.

Nusret is a useful dual-purpose sort for Joseph O’Brien and ran respectably when fifth at the Punchestown Festival, sticking well to his task in a Listed Handicap Hurdle. It’s worth remembering how very easily he won the Race To The Ebor Handicap at the Curragh last June; despite having to wait, and wait again, for the gap to appear, once it did he quickened through it and won a very comfortable half a length, looking like there was a lot left in the tank. He ran to a similar level at Leopardstown next time, the slight drop back in trip counting against him, and whilst this extreme stamina test is something new to him, he’s worth a crack at it. A mark of 91 is very workable if he stays.

 

5.40 Wolferton Stakes (1m2f, Listed, 4yo+)

Preview by Rory Delargy

The complicating factor for me in the Wolferton is the presence of my punting bête noire, Checkandchallenge, in the field. The son of Fast Company was last behind Mqse de Sevigne in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan last time, but was beaten less than 3¾ lengths in a tactical race, and the sixth that day, Marhaba Ya Sanafi, won a Group 3 at the weekend. William Knight has never had his horses in better form, and I can feel the inexorable cliff-horse pull. Must. Resist. Temptation.

Phew, that was close.

The draw is always worth a look at Ascot, irrespective of trip, and while this is a relatively new race at the meeting, there have been enough runnings to make a judgment. Despite the layout of the track suggesting low numbers should have the best of it, that hasn’t been the case, and the only horse to win from one of the two lowest stalls in the race’s history was 13/8 favourite Rainbow Peak in 2010 (he was drawn 16 of 16 back in 2010 before the numbering method changed). High numbers, especially those held up, can also struggle, though three winners in the last decade have come from stall 12.

In terms of pace, no horse has made all since 2006 when the race was run as a handicap, but even hold up horses can find trouble on the run to the bend with three getting the in-running comment “badly hampered” last year. Ideally, you want a horse with the relative early speed to take a handy position behind the leaders and be able to make a move early in the straight.

With the ability to cope with firmish ground (the ground will be quickening throughout the day) a prerequisite, it’s easy to make a shortlist and, being brutal about it, I’m down to two horses fairly quickly. Israr stands out in terms of recent form and race conditions, while he’s got the ideal run style to give him every chance. As such he’s a deserving favourite, and I’d not put anyone off his chances.

The other on my short list is Astro King who can be forgiven a rare below-par effort over 1½m at Newmarket last time. Twice placed at this meeting for Sir Michael Stoute, he’s an improved performer for current connections and ran a cracker to be second in the Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes on his return to the UK in April.

Both of Astro King’s wins for Daniel & Clare Kubler have come on good to firm ground and he is better at 1m1f/1¼m than a mile. His stall is the same one that Contributer, Addeybb and Royal Champion have scored from, and he should get a nice tow into the race from habitual front-runner Cemhaan, making him look a decent each-way bet at around 14/1.

Recommended: 1pt e/w Astro King @ 14/1 (general – 4 places)

 

6.15 Copper Horse Stakes (1m6f, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

This is still a relatively new race with only four previous renewals and, with this course and distance generally only seeing small field races during the rest of the year, draw and pace data remains relatively sparse. What data we do have (Geegeez Gold racecards, PACE tab) suggests that there is a slight advantage being drawn lower and you probably don’t want to be miles off the pace.

 

 

There doesn’t look to be much pace contention with A Piece Of Heaven probably the sole forward-going type. That factor, and the tendency for prominent racers to be advantaged, suggests anything that is held up in the rear here is going to need to be extremely well-handicapped, and lucky in the run, to win.

 

 

It’s difficult to make strong conclusions from the limited draw data but when sorting the dividual draw data table (Geegeez Gold racecards, DRAW tab) by PRB3 it seems telling that the top performing berths are the nine single-figure stalls and the seven worst performers are the double-figure stalls.

Stall 14 has previously won so it’s not as though we can just put a line through the higher draws, but we can probably slightly mark up those who have a lower stall.

On to the runners…

I’m always a little frustrated by these staying handicaps at Ascot as Willie Mullins tends to farm them with horses that are almost impossible to back. That said, I’m looking to bet him in one later in the week!

Generally they have little to no flat form in this country and often have something to prove on fast ground and over the trip they are running. This year’s favourite is slightly different, though. Belloccio is pretty exposed, having run fifteen times on the flat in the UK for David Menuisier. If you were building a profile for the horse from those runs you’d say he was a top handicapper around Kempton (Listed winner) but not a turf horse at all having beaten only ten rivals home in his last eight flat turf runs. If he was still with his old trainer he’d likely be an outsider for this.

So the big question is how magical is Willie Mullins at transforming horses? Belloccio won a maiden hurdle on his only start for his new trainer with a winning margin of nine lengths so suddenly things look more positive in regards to running on turf but I still have strong reservations. The runner up from that race was beaten three times as far next time out at the same level and the third was pulled up on his next start. Despite the impressive winning margin, a poor maiden hurdle score doesn’t necessarily prove he’s thrown in off a mark of 100 here.

He’s also seemingly been kept away from fast ground throughout his career which is another reason he’s opposable. Mullins had the one-two in this last year but if he ever had a runner at Royal Ascot that is opposable it's this horse. I’m not saying he can’t win, but I am saying he’s a terrible price.

Fox Journey is a horse I followed last year and his last run over this trip was an excellent 3rd in the Melrose Handicap behind Middle Earth. He seemingly took his form to a whole new level on his first start this season when winning a 12f handicap by 11 lengths, and the handicapper could have been a lot harsher than giving him only a 9lb rise for that. I have suspicions about the strength of that form so I’m not sure how well handicapped he is now but he at least seems to have conditions in his favour so could go well.

A Piece Of Heaven is another who won easily last time out and he showed plenty of versatility dropping back to 12f, having previously won over two miles. This looks a much tougher race than the last two he’s won and he’s gone up a total of 16lbs for those so I wouldn’t be especially quick to back him from stall 18, even if he could get across and secure an easy lead.

The one I like the most is Bague D’Or, but by the time you read this he’s probably going to have been balloted out of the race as he’s the first reserve at the time of writing. I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed that there’s a non-runner before the cut off because he remains unexposed at this trip with form figures of 1121 on good or better ground, including a course and distance success. His only defeat at 14f on decent ground came at the hands of Trawlerman, who went on to win the Ebor on his next start and subsequently rate 21lbs higher (and is a warm fancy in the Gold Cup market).

Bague D’Or won at Newmarket on his first start this season, in pretty comfortable fashion, and he can race mid-division to prominent so should be well placed in this from stall 9 if he does get a run. On the assumption he doesn’t get a run, we need a backup selection and conveniently there is a runner in this who was just two lengths behind Bague D’Or last time at Newmarket and is now 4lbs better off. That runner is Intinso and if the first time tongue tie can help with his habitual keenness he could have a massive chance here.

If both Bague D’Or and Intinso get to run I still prefer the former (they are both around the 12/1 to 14/1 mark) but you could argue that Intinso has a great chance of reversing Newmarket form. Intinso was probably unsuited by leading that day so can potentially be marked up a little and he’s also more lightly raced than Bague D’Or so could improve further, especially if settling better.

Intinso has run three decent races this year, winning easily at Wolverhampton before finding a tactical race over 11f at Kempton a bit too much, but he still stayed on into 3rd, doing best of those not up with the pace throughout. Then last time out he probably could have done with a lead when beaten by Bague D’Or.

He’s drawn in stall 2 and if he can settle on the rail, just behind A Piece Of Heaven, he may be ideally positioned turning for home and could be seen to very best effect. It’s also worth noting that Amtiyaz, who won this for the same connections in 2021, is a half-brother to Intinso.

So, to summarise, I’m pretty keen on an each way wager on 14/1 BAGUE D’OR if he does get a run (stakes returned if balloted out); but, in the likelihood he doesn’t get in, I’ll be having a small bet on 14/1 INTINSO instead at the same sort of price.

 

Sam Darby's Winning Post Profits

 

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And that's how our team sees the opening day of the 2024 Royal Ascot meeting. Lots of prices to go at and perfectly possible to have a complete wipeout, but one winner will likely cover the losers. Be lucky, and keep some powder dry for the battles to come!

Matt

Taking on the World at Royal Ascot

/in , /by

There are plenty of ways to wager the Royal meeting. With bookmakers offering 'happy hour' enhanced odds, significant extended places each way, and a top hat-ful of specials and concessions, shopping around the firms is an obvious place to start. In his excellent Money Without Work series on geegeez, pro player Russ Clarke outlined the maths associated with bookie concessions and this is a must read for anyone even faintly serious about trying to come out in front. The series is here, and of specific relevance are parts 4 and 5; if you've not read those, go ahead and do that now - I'll wait 😉

That, of course, is if you can still get on with the bookies. Restrictions, the bane of millions of regular racing bettors, mean that such offers are a frustrating cocked snook: "I have thee not, and yet I see thee still".

Alternatives to traditional bookmakers

Happily, Royal Ascot is a meeting of global importance which bestows upon it more wagering pounds and dollars - Hong Kong, Australian, United States and other brands - than any other meeting in the British calendar. The eyes and wallets of the world are trained on these five days and that presents rare opportunity. Liquidity in UK racing markets is an ongoing challenge: the sharks have decimated the little fish on betting exchanges, and the dear old nanny goat (tote) continues to suffer from a historic lack of investment and promotion under previous stewardships. But both fight back during Royal Ascot week.

Exchanges

On Betfair, top sporting events bring far greater liquidity: backers and layers alike are prepared to risk more capital when they believe the playing field is even. So the exchanges are unquestionably a value option during a meeting like this, especially for win only players.

Keeping an eye on three price lists at once is not for everyone, but it can be a rewarding practice. In reality, of course, it is unlikely that starting price will be the best of the trio of SP, exchange SP and tote return; so unless you've played early with the Best Odds Guaranteed concession it's going to be a straight shoot out between 'the machine' and the nanny.

Their respective markets will be capitalised differently meaning different horses will be better or worse value in each. Here's why. Betfair, the major exchange player (though certainly not the only one in Royal Ascot week), does not allow the world to bet into a single win pool. So it is that UK and Irish punters will bet into one instance, and some overseas jurisdictions will bet into another: each will return a different SP for the race. Materially, plenty of geographies will be unable to (legally) bet on an exchange at all.

Tote / World Pool

Meanwhile, tote offers us World Pool. In partnership with a majority of the biggest international racing countries, including the aforementioned Hong Kong (whose ball it is that everyone plays with), Australia, US, Japan and on, World Pool means millions of quids and bucks and yens and euros are wagered into a single pot.

What that means is that there are blind spots in the markets. Much of the World Pool liquidity emanates from Hong Kong where, it's fair to say, they like a bet. But, as infrequent players on UK gee-gees, the general level of familiarity is commensurately sketchy. I hark back to some formative Saturday mornings punting Turffontein in South Africa, which typically meant no more form study than establishing which unknown equine Piere 'Striker' Strydom was aboard. He may have been the best rider (and he may not), but who knows what chance he had in any given race? I just didn't know about any of the other blokes (as it would have virtually exclusively been back then).

So it is with overseas punters in World Pool. It's a crying shame that there are relatively few international runners at the meeting this year because, as with Brits backing Brits at the Breeders', parochial punters are of the same stripe the world over. Hong Kong'ers will play HK runners, Aussies will back their Bruces and Sheilas, and our American cousins want to wager Wesley. That's human nature. And it is opportunity knocking.

I've managed to get hold of some great insights on last year's World Pool that reveal some of those trainers and jockeys which are overbet, and those which are underbet. More importantly, the logic around them is bombproof: overseas punters bet who they know. Duh.

So, even without Frankie Dettori or a proper away team in 2024, we still have to play Ryan Moore and William Buick, Neil Callan and Silvestre de Sousa, Hollie Doyle and Tom Marquand, as well as most likely Oisin Murphy, with caution on World Pool. The exchange will be a better option. Why? Ryan and William are the best known Euro jocks (and ride first string for the best known training and ownership firms); Callan and SdS were household names around Sha Tin and the Valley of Happy (at least in punting households) when plying their trade there; and Hollie and Tom have been highly successful in HK and Aus. Oisin has strong connections with Japan.

But, away from the international glare, prospects are rosy. The likes of Hayley Turner, Colin Keane, Billy Lee, Wayne Lordan, Kevin Stott, Kieran Shoemark, Clifford Lee, and Richard Kingscote... and, candidly, most of the very good 'stay at home' domestics... will be underbet on World Pool.

The same is true with trainers. Aidan O'Brien, Charlie Appleby, Dermot Weld, and Andrew Balding are no-no's. Big yesses are Eve Johnson Houghton, Jane Chapple-Hyam, George Boughey, and perhaps more surprisingly, the likes of Sir Michael Stoute, William Haggas and Willie Mullins. Loads of our big guns hiding in plain sight from overseas bettors.

 

How to play?

The easiest way to play this is to compare prices on horses you fancy (or on horses you don't, actually) between exchange and World Pool, and bet where the offer is healthiest. One of the great things about the World Pool is that it is far less susceptible to late price collapses; you'll still see instances of dividends being lower than the last 'show' before the off but it's rarely the deep frustration it can be in the tote payout queue on a rainy December evening at Southwell. A runner showing 12.0 as they enter the stalls is unlikely to return shorter than 10.5, say. If the last bookie show is 15/2 and the exchange shows 9.6, World Pool is the place to play.

It's not impossible that you could make underround books from this sort of cross-referenced cherry picking; or at least fashion a good edge from hedging the top of the market. If you're that way inclined. Me? I'm not especially that way inclined, but I do like an exotic...

...so what about playing combinations of the fancied horses with lesser known connections in the exacta and trifecta pools? Sure, this is a feast and famine existence, but if you hit one you'll likely be dining very well. And it will foot the bill for a lot of near misses and complete blowouts.

 

Examples

Win Pools

Let's take a couple of examples from last year, starting with the Queen Anne, arguably a bad example because the winner, 33/1 Triple Time, was not an easy one to find, here in Blighty at least. His Betfair SP was 36.45, about 10% better but pretty unsexy given his 'double carpet' starting price. On the tote, he paid £35.05, also pretty unattractive in terms of uplift against SP. But closer inspection reveals he was ridden by Neil Callan, one of the great 'clock' riders in Britain (and, day to day, just about the single most underrated in my view). Callan's ability was/is not lost on Hong Kong players whose wagering respect for him is greater than ours, a fact reflected in that return.

Compare that with the opening race on the Saturday, the Chesham Stakes, won by Snellen. Ridden by Gary Carroll and trained by Gavin Cromwell, names far from the overseas radar, he returned 12/1 at SP, 13.88 BSP, and £14.30 on World Pool. That was followed by the Jersey Stakes where Aidan O'Brien's second string, Ace Of Kings, ridden by Wayne Lordan, was a 22/1 scorer. He paid 34 on the exchange and £34.70 on World Pool, a 50% bonus against SP.

Exacta / Trifecta

In truth, it will often be the case that the best value close to the off is with the exchange if you're playing in the win markets. But what about the exacta/trifecta options? In these pools, which are not generally available on exchanges but compete directly with bookmaker-derived computer straight forecast (CSF) and tricast offerings, we have the chance to multiply lesser known connections. Again, a couple of examples will help.

In the Copper Horse Stakes, the closing 1m6f handicap on the 2023 Tuesday, Willie Mullins saddled a 1-2 with the even money favourite obliging ahead of his 5/1 stablemate. Even though this pair was ridden by Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori, essentially the two highest profile jockeys at the meeting, the World Pool exacta paid £15.20 against a miserly CSF of £6.11. That would have been one of the easier 14/1 shots we'll ever have the chance to find.

At the other end of the feasibility spectrum, we had the Norfolk Stakes on Thursday where 150/1 Valiant Force beat 66/1 Malc. What chance in the Norfolk? Norfolk and chance! Anyhoo, someone somewhere copped it (my mate Gavin Priestley who, after flagging 33/1 Bradsell for geegeez readers last year, will be contributing again here for Royal Ascot, also put up Valiant Force on his trends service!), and the CSF paid £3478.24. Decent and well earned. But the World Pool exacta came in at a mouth-watering £5369.60. ¡Ay, caramba!

Below is the full CSF/exacta 'tale of the tape' from last year's Royal meeting. I've rounded the computer straight forecast (CSF) and exacta dividends to the nearest pound, and in the final column have displayed a ratio of exacta to CSF. For example, in the Queen Anne, the opening race on Tuesday, the Exacta (313) paid 2.63 times as much as the CSF (119). Most  notably, from 35 races, only three paid more on the bookie version of the 1-2 bet. And the average uplift was around 77% in favour of the World Pool exacta. I'll be playing these next week. It won't be easy but there's enough reward to justify the risk...

 

You can read much more about the general appeal of exacta over CSF in a two-part article, part 1 of which is here. Part 2 is here.

Multi-Race Action

The placepot (find a placed horse in the first six races) and jackpot (find the first six winners) bets are not part of World Pool per se, but the place variant is an extremely liquid pool during Royal Ascot. Indeed, last year at the meeting the placepot pool was greater than half a million pounds on each of the five days. Dividends ranged from a relatively paltry £93.70 on Tuesday to an impossible-sounding £36,284.30 on Saturday. In the middle, on Gold Cup day, there was a gettable £1,244.80 payout.

A lot of my personal play will be in the multi-race pools, mainly placepot but the Tuesday card can often lend itself to a bold jackpot tilt. Of course, I'll be using Tix, the staking optimisation tool I built with my good friend Nigel Dove (who also built much of the geegeez racecard and form tool ecosystem).

With Tix you choose a unit stake, budget and the pool you want to play (Ascot placepot for example).

 

Then you pick your horses in each leg, adding them to either A, B or C ('A' being your strong fancies, 'B' warm fancies, and 'C' dark horses). You can have just 'A' picks if you like, and/or any combination of A's, B's and C's across the six legs.

 

Once you've done that, it's on to the TICKETS tab to decide which combo's you're playing and whether you want any multipliers. I almost always set mine up like this:

 

When you're happy with everything, hit PLACE ALL BETS (or you can place tickets individually).

You can then review your placed bets and download them to a spreadsheet from the BETS tab:

 

Tix is a free tool, and winning tickets receive a 5% bonus payout. So if you're due £100 back, you'll get £105 into your tote account for bets placed through Tix.

There's much more information here and you can put Tix to work for you here.

 

Closing Thoughts

It's often said about betting that you one needs to choose one's battles; but it is also essential to opt for the right battlefield to optimise winning chances. You don't need me to tell you that finding winners at Royal Ascot is difficult; it's one of the great wagering challenges of the year where good work on Tuesday afternoon can be a distant memory by Saturday evening, and vice versa. Every return counts, so it's crucial to get as much back in odds/dividend terms as possible (what you get back is directly proportionate to what you stake and that is of no consequence here).

Sadly, optimising returns, for many punters, is an epic fail. And, at the end of the day, or of a meeting like Royal Ascot, or of your punting accounting period, it can comfortably be the difference between winning and losing.

In that somewhat preachy (sorry) spirit:

- if you can get concessions with traditional bookmakers, DO!
- win dividends are typically best on the exchanges
- exacta and trifecta dividends are generally MILES better with World Pool
- certain jockeys and trainers - those known to overseas punters - are 'caution advised' in the pools

Bring it on!

p.s. Don't forget to check out Tix, not just for the big meetings but for jackpot, placepot, quadpot, Placepot7 and Scoop6 bets, too. Start betting smarter with Tix here >

My 2024 Cheltenham Festival Betting P&L

/in , /by

As has become somewhat customary, I've taken a few moments to publicly critique the wagering positions from which I stood to gain or lose during that marvellous week of racing action, the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.

It won't be interesting to everyone, perhaps only to very few, and I publish not to boast/wallow (*delete annually as applicable) but to share my own lessons learned from this most immersive of punting processes. As ever, stakes are irrelevant - many bet more than me, many bet less, whatever; the key is how the journey went and, to a much lesser degree, what the destination looked like.

If that makes little sense, now is a good time to plug into the below. [Usual reminder that I speak kinda slowly, so feel free to use the little 'cog' icon bottom right to increase the playback speed to something more acceptable for your lugs].

Below the video are a few screen grabs of various bets just to show when they were placed (many at the time of publication of the posts in which they were nominated as suggestions). And if you want to review the previews, as it were, I've linked to those right here:

Day 1 preview      Day 2 preview      Day 3 preview      Day 4 preview

 

 

Selected bets

For those of you of a notably vicarious disposition, here are some slips...

The Good

A lot of the good stuff for me - in fact, pretty much all of the good stuff - happened in the novice hurdles this year. Slade Steel (Supreme), Ballyburn (Gallagher), Majborough (Triumph) and Stellar Story (Albert Bartlett) basically were the profit side of the ledger.

 

 

 

Stellar Story was, well, just that, especially as Gavin also tipped him on the preview. He returned a Betfair SP of 46, so I didn't get the value here - maybe it should go in the 'bad' section...

 

Plus Captain Guinness, who really only expunged the El Floppiolo entry (see The Ugly below)...

 

A saver on Jade de Grugy to place (see The Bad below)...

 

And Limerick Lace, an alliterative late lump of lustre on the ledger...

 

The Bad

Not bad in value terms, more like bad beats - though of course those wily bookie chaps usually know what they're about. I was lucky that Jade was the final leg (excluding WPM and Prestbury Cup which were nigh on certs) which made it hedgeable. Got a profit overall by laying Jade for a place - see above.

 

Nowhere to go with this, and I didn't even do the smart thing and back Absurde (who finished fourth behind these three last time out, and won the County Hurdle at 12/1, 15.5 BSP) for a couple of quid.

 

The Ugly

And this was an ugly one. Actually, only in terms of its predictable outcome was it disfigured; the double (2/5 and 2/9) paid 8/11 come the hour, and I'd secured 11/10 so it was a value play. As can be seen, I cashed a slice out when I first got a wobble about it; and as referenced in the video I hedged a little back, too, so it probably wasn't as ugly as I was thinking.

 

 

Doing debriefs can be very cathartic! [And absolutely objectifies what can be misguided subjective perspectives on the ledger - definitely worth your time to fill out the spreadie in my view]

 

Summary

Overall, it was a brilliant week from a sporting perspective though I (and I'm sure most readers) really felt for Nicky Henderson. That said, it's a strong case for making hay while the sun shines: the singular focus on the Festival is unhealthy and, when the horses are, erm, unhealthy during that week in March, there's no Plan B. Hoping at least some of those good horses will show up at Aintree and/or Punchestown.

Punting wise, for yours true it was very good - and a rarity to get quids on 'Give Back Friday'. This year, it was the bookies giving back to me. Nice. Normal service is expected to resume on Friday 14th March 2025.

Until then...

Matt

p.s. how was Cheltenham for you? Best sporting moment? Best bet / worst bad beat? Leave a comment and let us know.

Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Four Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Four Preview, Tips

It's been a weird, and occasionally unsatisfying, week with the abandonment of the Cross Country Chase and the lamentable early showings - and subsequent withdrawals - of Nicky Henderson's star players. But here we are, three down one to go and buoyed for a crack at the Foxhunters Gold Cup. If you're behind at this point, the good news is there is still time; the bad news is this is 'Give Back Friday'...

1.30 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Although Nicky has had to pull most of his star players, he does - at time of writing, Wednesday morning - still plan to run Sir Gino, strong Triumph Hurdle favourite heretofore but now drifting like The Drifters aboard the Kon-Tiki. Let's consider his form credentials before getting bogged down in the health of the yard. Unbeaten in three, Sir Gino was considered smart enough to debut in a Listed contest at Auteuil. Sent off at bigger than 20/1 on the Paris nanny, he scored by a bit less than two lengths.

Subsequently transferred to Seven Barrows, the first thing they did was give him a wind op (well, it probably wasn't the first thing, but you know what I mean). His breathing facilitated, he scooted up by half the track in a decent Kempton Introductory Hurdle; and he then buried the Burdett Road dream by bashing that one ten lengths in a Grade 2 on the Old course here. His form is miles clear of the rest of the home team, but that bug in the Henderson yard makes it very difficult to accept a shortish price.

That's all the more true when you see what Willie's bringing to the party. Perhaps Majborough will be the pick of his, perhaps he won't; but in time he very well might be, according to 'the vibes'. In any case, his close soft ground third to stablemate Kargese in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle on first start for over a year - he'd run as a three-year-old at Auteuil on 2nd April 2023 - was expected to blow away the cobwebs and it surely did.

Willie ran five in that race, Majborough only third choice in the betting, and the two ahead of him in the market filled the first two slots home. They were led by second favourite that day, Kargese, who looks a smart filly. Always prominent, she wasn't always fluent, but ran on well in a first time hood. She'll keep that pacifier on here and will again take on Majborough and the second from the Spring, Storm Heart. This ex-French flat horse won a maiden by 22 lengths before his G1 second, and he too retains plenty of upside. It is noteworthy that he's the choice of Paul Townend.

Willie ran five in the Spring Juvenile, and he saddles - wait, let me count them - sEvEn here! Seven. Out of the 14. I mean, what? As with the bumper, there's a chance he doesn't know the pecking order; but unlike the bumper, he's won this with his first string three times in the last four years. That points to Majborough in spite of having to turn the tables with both Kargese and Storm Heart. He's clearly held in high regard.

A quick whizz through the other four Willies - Bunting was fourth in the Spring Juvenile, only a bit more than two lengths behind the winner, and is another who on form could come out in front this time; Ethical Diamond was sixth there, and has five lengths to find - still not impossible; and High Wind was eighth at Leopardstown and ostensibly has plenty on to get past any of the aforementioned Mullins mob.

Meanwhile, Salvator Mundi hasn't run for eleven months since claiming argent at Auteuil in another Listed race. But here's the thing: he was second to none other than Sir Gino! The pair of them pulled ten clear of the third placed horse and, while Sir Gino, was value for a little more than 1 3/4 length margin, that obviously still makes Salvator Mundi 'live' in here if he's fit after that long layoff.

Nurburgring is quite battle hardened but I'm not sure his form with Kala Conti is quite as strong as some of the Closutton collective, or that he has the upside of them.

Back in Blighty, Salver has been winning and winning. He served up (geddit?!) in the G2 Finale at Chepstow having already won his two prior hurdles in lower class; then he won the Victor Ludorum at Haydock. A feature of his most recent brace of scores was very wet underfoot, so conditions ought not to be a concern - whether he's as good as the Irish and/or Sir Gino remains a concern!

I'm struggling to make cases for the rest, though Peking Opera was a very good flat horse and Ithaca's Arrow ploughed through the Newbury mud last time (he also ploughed through quite a few of the hurdles). Fratas has been off for a long time. And I backed Mighty Bandit a long time ago at a shorter price than he is now. He's moved from Elliott to Greatrex and has a clunk last time on his scorecard, though he was clearly wrong that day. He's a lot harder to fancy for that water under the bridge since my guessy ante post voucher, but he did look very good on his first hurdling start.

Triumph Hurdle Pace Map

Bound to be pacey early, with something from the Willie phalanx locking horns most probably with Salver and perhaps Fratas.

Triumph Hurdle Selection

Very tricky in light of the issues surrounding the jolly. He can't possibly be a bet as things stand, which makes punting a guess up. Paul Townend has ridden the three recent Mullins winners, but Mark Walsh is retained by JP McManus for Majborough. Townend rides Storm Heart and that one could be a bit of each way value in a race where there's not a lot between many of them. I'd love to see Salver win.

Suggestion: Try Storm Heart each way at 11/1 or so.

TIX PIX: A's and B's

Place smart placepot bets with Tix - found out more here >

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2.10 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

I was a bit miffed when Dan Skelton (handicap genius or barefaced cheat – you decide) said he was going to miss the County Hurdle with 2023 winner Faivoir as I’d availed myself of some 28/1 ante-post on the basis of his eye-catching run in the Betfair Hurdle when fifth behind Iberico Lord. Stablemate L’Eau du Sud was runner-up that day and Skelton seemed adamant that the latter would carry his hopes in the County.

I was even more miffed when, hoping to cash in, I napped Faivoir in the Imperial Cup only to see him beaten a nose by Go Dante. He’s clearly well handicapped, and Skelton has decided to let him run again. I thought initially that this sounded like a bad-beat declaration, but my friend Mr Massey mentioned the stable’s record when turning runners out quickly in handicaps. Naturally, I headed over to geegeez.co.uk (pint please, Matt) to double check.

True enough, Skelton’s record with quick turnarounds is excellent with two wins and a second in the last two years from just seven runners, including Heltenham’s 17/2 score at Newbury recently. Looking back further his figures are even better for hurdlers alone with five winners from 12 runners turned out less than a week from a previous start. That’s enough to make Faivoir interesting again even if he did have a hard race at Sandown and presumably he won’t run if there are signs he’s not fully recovered.

L’Eau du Sud ran a stormer in the Betfair and while the form was let down by the winner in the Champion Hurdle, I think we all know that the Henderson lurgy was responsible for that, and ditto Betfair fourth Doddiethegreat’s late capitulation in the Coral Cup. The form of that race is clearly strong, as it always is, and the only negative about L’Eau du Sud is the price, with every man and his dog having hitched on to the Skelton bandwagon.

The other good trial for this race is the 2m Listed handicap hurdle at the DRF which this year was won by Lord Erskine from Magical Zoe and Zenta with a number of horses taken out of the race in what we affectionately refer to as a “shemozzle” at the penultimate flight. One of those brought down was Bialystock, who was travelling well and improving on the inner at the time. I think that trio are all of interest, and while a 7lb rise for the first two seems a little harsh at first glance, Bialystock is only 1lb higher and that also makes him of interest here.

Both Zenta and Magical Zoe were relatively handily placed off the turn, and out of trouble wide on the track, but it’s possible that both went slightly too early as 50/1 winner Lord Erskine was produced very late to swamp them from the final hurdle. One can knock the form because of the odds of the winner, but I think it’s very solid and Lord Erskine came in for a really well judged ride, finding the best of the ground wide on the track and delaying his challenge until late.

In short, there is nothing between Magical Zoe and Zenta on Leopardstown form and the pair can be expected to play a big part in the finish if held on to for slightly longer, while Bialystock is weighted to beat them if you take the view that he would have finished off as strongly as he travelled there. On that point, Ruby Walsh feels that Bialystock needs a fairly sharp 2m to show his best given he’s very speedy and was concerned about the stiff 2m1f here when I mentioned Bialystock as a County possibility. That’s a warning worth heeding but he still merits his place on the list.

Of the others King of Kingsfield and Absurde were third and fourth behind Ballyburn and Slade Steel and are of obvious interest dropping into a handicap from that Grade 1 contest which has thrown up two impressive winners in the big novice hurdles this week. Both are worthy of consideration, but both are also well found already in the market.

County Hurdle Pace Map

Another almost guaranteed quick pace though it's not clear from where the early dash will emerge. Aucunrisque looks a likely but Westport Cove is the only other to have led in its most recent three spins. A handful of others led four back. I still reckon it'll be quick but could be wrong as I don't know who goes on!

County Hurdle Selection

In terms of the final call, price will be crucial, and the favourite is a tad short now for all he could ease on the day. Faivoir is 16/1 in a couple of places which is very fair given the stats quoted above and his attractive mark, while even Ruby’s words don’t completely put me off Bialystock after his eye-catching run at Leopardstown.

Suggestion: Try Faivoir at 16/1 and/or Bialystock at 11/1 each way with as many extra places as you can find.

TIX PIX: A's, B's and C's

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2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.

All of the last 14 winners had their last run over 2m3f-3m 1/2f.

All of the last 14 winners had their last run in the previous 26-90 day period.

12 of the last 13 winners had finished top 3 last time out.

All of the last 12 winners with an official rating were rated 136+.

9 of the last 10 winners returned 11/1 or bigger.

12 of the last 13 winners had raced 7 or fewer times over hurdles.

12 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7yo.

11 of the last 14 winners had won at 2m4 1/2f+.

11 of the last 14 winners had their last start in Graded company (8 in a Grade 2).

10 of the last 14 winners were Irish Bred.

9 of the last 14 winners finished Top 3 in a Graded hurdle last time out.

8 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded hurdle previously.

4 of the last 14 winners returned 33/1 or bigger.

3 of the last 14 winners had raced 15 or more times in their career.

Willie Mullins had 22 straight losers between 2010-2016 but has now won 3 of the last 7.

8 of the last 12 winners had won an Irish PTP.

4 of the last 9 winners wore a tongue tie.

All 6 female runners have finished unplaced.

Only 1 of the last 13 winners had their last race in a handicap (27 such runners).

The sire Oscar has 2 wins and 3 places from 16 runners since the races inception.

The Grade 2 Lyons Of Limerick Jaguar Land Rover Novice Hurdle is a decent Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle trial given that the 2015, 2017 and 2021 Albert Bartlett winners had all taken part in the race prior to winning at Cheltenham, while Fury Road (third by a neck in the 2020 Albert Bartlett) had won that trial back in 2019. This Season's winner, Loughlynn, had looked a progressive horse prior to this win but has been pulled up since in a Grade 1 and gives the race a miss. The runner up at Limerick is here though and Gordon Elliott's 7yo STELLAR STORY looks just the type to go well in this.

A winning Irish pointer who is also a two time NH Flat winner, from three starts, he beat Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter on his third bumper start which is cracking form, that pair subsequently doing very well in Grade 1 company over hurdles and the former running third in Gallagher Novices' Hurdle on Wednesday. Stellar Story won first time up over hurdles this season and was then done for pace against a couple of speedier types in a Grade 2 at Navan over 2m4f at the start of December. He was then second in that Limerick Grade 2 Hurdle before staying on late in 4th in the big 2m6f Grade 1 Novice at the Leopardstown Festival a couple of weeks ago. I think he's crying out for this step up to 3 miles and the form of that NH flat race at Naas last February has worked out really well. He ticks all the boxes for Cheltenham, has form on soft ground and given the history of outsiders running well in this race I'm certainly not put off by his price. I like his chances a lot.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Quick, and attritional, as it usually is in 'the potato race'. Giggy may get jiggy on the lead, with some help from Wiggie Willie.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: Back STELLAR STORY 1pt EW at 25/1.

TIX PIX: A's and C's

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Festival Trends

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3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. A Gold Cup shorn of one of its stars as Shishkin has succumbed to the mystery ailment afflicting Seven Barrows in recent days, but of course the show must go on. We still have the champ, Galopin Des Champs, back to defend a crown he acquired with a seven length beating of Bravemansgame twelve months ago.

Galopin was subsequently beaten not once but twice - either side of his seasonal break - by perrenial rival Fastorslow, before exacting revenge last time in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival. It is widely assumed that that finishing order will be maintained, but the market has arguably over-stated that. Regardless, GdC looks on top of his game and his top form is the best in the race. He's a logical and worthy favourite.

Fastorslow has a few less notches on his bedpost, and had something of a bridesmaid look having run up to Corach Rambler in the Ultima last term and also been second in the Coral Cup the year before. He's since, erm, 'got married' (note to self, don't start analogies that will go nowhere) twice in Grade 1 company before that reverse at the hands of Galopin. [*trying desperately to crowbar in the old joke: "I've got two wives, do you think that's bigamy?" "I think that's very big of you!" - there, I did it, apols also for that]

Getting back on track, Bravemansgame was just that one spot away from winning the Blue Riband a year ago, and he's having another crack now. Why wouldn't he? Since then, he's had more seconds than a minute, running up to Gentlemansgame, Royale Pagaille, and Hewick respectively. The most recent was in the King George and that, again, is top form, albeit in defeat. Soft ground would hold no fears though he's unproven on heavy bar a Listed bumper flop at Ascot way back in 2019; that shouldn't be over-factored.

Staying with Team GB, L'Homme Presse will surely be a different dude this time from the shadow of himself that showed up in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase: never put in the race that day (pocket talk, sigh) he finished well enough over a clearly inadequate trip. Lest we forget, he was the 2022 Brown Advisory winner and though I didn't like it at the time, that was a belting prep for this.

Most of Gerri Colombe's best form has been on a sounder surface - Grade 1 Mildmay, Grade 1 Scilly Isles - but he's also got G1 verdicts on soft and soft to heavy. He was duffed up by Galopin Des Champs at Christmas, beaten 23 lengths there, and we've not seen him since. That'd be a worry for me although he's obviously a very talented chap at his best.

And then there's the fairytale ownership story that is Hewick. Bought for £12.50 (or thereabouts), he's won a bet365 Gold Cup, a Galway Plate, an American Grand National, an Oaksey Chase, and a King George. And the Durham National! Wowzers. And he actually cost €850. Just incredible - good luck to those very, very, very lucky owners and the astonishing journey this horse has taken them on. But can he win a Gold Cup?

Well, the answer to can he win a Durham Nash was probably 'no', as it was to 'can he win xyz other big race?', so let's break with that errant tradition and say, yes, he can win a Gold Cup. Whether he will or not is another question entirely. He jumps well and he stays very well so those are great credentials, as is his obvious will to battle and win, but there is a rather large fly in the ointment. ALL of his best form is on quick ground. It will not be that here, "and so I'm out" (said in my most earnest Deborah Meaden voice).

Ground would be a small niggle for Corach Rambler, too. Yes, he won a four runner novice hurdle on heavy back yon, but he will have outclassed his rivals there; and yes, he won the Ultima on soft last season. I actually really like him as a 'running on' play - maybe a place lay to back, or some such - and if I can get four places I'm bound to back him for a little bit. Because he's actually very good. Two wins here in the Ultima and a Grand National triumph tell us that; and he's surely had his mark managed as far as possible hitherto this campaign with a view to a repeat National bid. Those shackles now off he'll bring his A game here.

I can't have any of the rest. Fishcake Monkfish has been fragile and largely absent since his brilliant novice chase season, failing to win in three starts since; it's tough to envisage that streak being broken on his fourth go, in the Gold Cup. Nassalam does love the mud - he blitzed them in the Welsh National on heavy - so if it was a really, really wet day he'd enter minor calculations. Former Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker has been missing since and isn't for me; and while I respect everything Henry de B runs at the Festival, even I'm having a hard time magicking a case for Jungle Boogie.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

Quite a tough one to call pace wise, with a feature of most of the runners being their run style versatility. Galopin Des Champs has led in small fields the last twice but might take a lead here, while the Games - Bravemans and Gentlemans - could also get an early call. Should be a good even gallop and may the best horse win.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection

It might be that Galopin Des Champs just wins or that, if he doesn't, Fastorslow does. I'll probably do that 'no brainer' exacta which will pay 5/1 or so. But I kind of like L'Homme Presse as a sleeper in the field and he'll be my each way play. Lower down, Corach Rambler will be running on and can hit the extended frame; and if it's very wet - it might be! - Nassalam could surprise a few.

Suggestion: Try a little on L'Homme Presse each way, and perhaps Corach Rambler (not too wet) or Nassalam (biblical rainfall) with as many places as you can get. But, obviously, no surprise whatsoever if the top of the market outclasses them.

TIX PIX: 'A' banker and C's

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4.10 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk.

As ever I will begin with a look at a few general race trends:

Ten year-old’s have won six of the last ten renewals of the race – six winners from 47 runners +130.63, 12 placed with the A/E=1.86.

Nine of the last ten winners have been aged 10 or 11.

Favourites are three winners from ten runners -0.24, six placed. But five winners were returned between 16/1 & 66/1.

Eight of the last ten winners had won between 2m7f and 3m2½f.

There have been a number of repeat winners of this race, with Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder enjoying back-to-back successes since 2012.

To the form and the first thing you notice is the number of declared runners. This year’s renewal has attracted just a dozen hunters. 23 ran last year and the race average since 2008 is 22.75. Hopefully it’s a case of quality rather than quantity but I suppose it may also say a lot about the direction of travel of the hunter chase game.

I'll admit that if Matt hadn't asked me to preview the race, I probably wouldn't have given it much attention. However, I'm glad I did because despite the small field, I believe it could be an interesting contest.

Ferns Lock, Its On The Line, Premier Magic, and Samcro all share the top spot on official ratings.

Ferns Lock, although making his first appearance at Cheltenham, is a proficient jumper and a strong traveller. If he manages to stay the extended 3m2f distance, he's the most likely winner, although that's not certain given his racing style.

Its On The Line, recently acquired by JP McManus and trained by Emmet Mullins, boasts a solid record with three consecutive wins in hunter chases. He battled to victory over one of today's rivals, Billaway, in his last outing at Naas and is a strong stayer who could challenge Ferns Lock on the run-in.

Premier Magic secured victory in last year's race and followed up with another win at Cheltenham in May. Although he held off Its On The Line by 1¾ lengths last year, the latter has gained experience since then, and Premier Magic might find it tougher to repeat his success.

Samcro has shown revitalised form in point-to-point races, winning four times between October and November. While he might struggle against the likes of Ferns Lock and Its On The Line, he can't be completely discounted.

Billaway, winner of this race in 2022, fell twelve months ago but showed promise in his recent runner-up finish at Naas. Although his jumping isn't as polished as some of his rivals, his staying power keeps him in the mix.

Quintin’s Man found 2m6f an inadequate stamina test when 3rd of eight at Haydock last month. He won a course and distance hunter chase here last May so the return to today’s trip appears more suitable. He’s going the right way but would need to improve plenty to trouble the principles.

Sine Nomine delivered an improved performance to win a heavy ground hunter chase at Wetherby last month. The mare is now three from five under Rules and, whilst she needs to improve again to even get into the places, she might be capable of doing so.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase  Pace Map

The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. As such, it's not to be trusted for all that it implies a fair gallop set by one or both of Billaway and Ferns Lock with possibly 14yo Shantou Flyer wanting a piece, too, if he can keep up!

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection

The battle seems to be between Ferns Lock and Its On The Line. If Ferns Lock conserves his energy early on, he’s the most likely winner, but Its On The Line is a strong finisher. Premier Magic, last year's winner, can't be dismissed, and for those seeking a value bet, Sine Nomine will hopefully be available at decent each-way odds.

That's a wrap for me. I've thoroughly enjoyed sharing my race previews with you, and I hope you've found them enjoyable and informative. Until next time, happy racing!

Suggestion: Try Ferns Lock to win at 11/4 and/or Sine Nomine each way at 16/1 or bigger.

TIX PIX: A's and B's and C's

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4.50 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Ah, the Mares' Chase. An 'after the Lord Mayor's Show' of a race if ever there was. Or maybe 'After the Lord Mares' Show'. Perhaps not. Let's get on with it, shall we?

It's 20/1 bar four and that's mainly because Dinoblue, even money, is in the field. Her form in front of Gentleman De Mee and closest to El Fabiolo the last twice is the best by a margin; but she's only run once at this twenty furlong range, a ten length fourth in a Fairyhouse G1 novice hurdle. She kept on that day, and doubts about stablemate Lossiemouth's stamina for a similar step up were unambiguously dispelled on Tuesday. She'll probably win - she's a really smart mare.

But what if she doesn't stay? In such a scenario, Gavin Cromwell may hold the key. He runs two, Limerick Lace and Brides Hill. Limerick Lace handles soft and heavy ground, stays very well (keeping on second in the three mile Thyestes Chase) and bolted up in a Listed mares' race at this trip in Doncaster last time. I'm not convinced she's quick enough but I'm certain she'll handle conditions.

Brides Hill is on a four-timer, and she looks a trip specialist. She, too, has soft ground form, though not heavy ground form, and she's had a lot of races. She'd not be near the top of my list.

Another with conditions in her corner is Allegorie De Vassy, twice a winner on heavy in her last three starts, both in Listed company. She finished second in this last year and may again have to settle for minor honours, though she probably will go close.

Making a case for anything else is probably folly, but at a massive price Marsh Wren is better suited to conditions than most. Still a novice, she's a winner of eight of 13 starts, three of four in chases, and went to Ireland to beat some of their Listed class mares last time. She has a chunk to find on the book but goes from the front and will, as they say, "give a bold sight".

Mares' Chase Pace Map

This should be a proper test at the trip which may or may not find out the best mare in the field. Kestrel Valley and Marsh Wren, along with Dinoblue's stablemate, Instit (pronounced Ansty, apparently), will be the trailblazers.

Mares' Chase Selection

Dinoblue has to show she stays, and she might. If we knew she did, she wouldn't be evens, I guess, but I still don't like that price given the unanswered question. Limerick Lace is probably quite solid for all that she's probably quite slow (might be what's needed if it's wet) and Allegorie De Vassy is another the market (and I) expect(s) to be on the premises. If you want to go mad - we might need to by this point - Marsh Wren without the favourite, could sneak a minor placing.

Suggestion: I'm going to try to get Dinoblue beaten, which will be a waste of time if she stays. In that context, back Limerick Lace to win at 9/2.

TIX PIX: A's only

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5.30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by David Massey. This year’s Martin Pipe is a slightly strange affair, with a less compressed look to the handicap than is normally the case. It tends to be a 0-145 handicap where the bottom in is usually around the low 130’s but this time around you’ve a few below that mark and bottom weight Russian Ruler, for the not-in-form Nicky Henderson (it has to turn, doesn’t it?), is rated just 122. 

The lowest rating for anything winning this in the last decade is 135, and most of the unexposed ones that tend to do well in the race are 130+, and I think we’ll find the winner there. 

Ocastle Des Mottes is one of the Willie Mullins plots for this and he has a touch of the Galopins about him. The future Gold Cup winner had been sixth in a Grade 1 on his previous start before winning this in 2021 and Ocastle Des Mottes, whilst not competing at that level last time, still went off favourite for the Betfair Hurdle last month. Perhaps all the pre-race shenanigans when he had to be re-shod didn’t help his cause, but he was a little disappointing all the same in finishing eighth. I feel that, given the level of support he had that day, he must be capable of better, and I’d not be writing him off on the back of one run. 

Willie’s Quai De Bourbon is the one that’s come in for all the support ever since the market opened, but he looks underpriced on what he’s achieved so far. His defeat of stablemate Westport Cove looks solid enough, with the runner-up going on to be beaten 12 lengths by Tullyhill at the Dublin Racing Festival, and a mark of 140 looks fair enough. He has one of the most experienced jockeys on board in Michael O’Sullivan and he has plenty of upside to him. The market has him well found, all the same. 

Gordon Elliott has twice won this in recent years and of his battalion Better Days Ahead is the one that makes the most appeal. He didn’t shine in the Champion Bumper last year but has shown steady progression in four hurdles starts, coming up against Slade Steel at Navan two starts ago (not knocked about as the stable’s second string that day, but still not beaten far) and then second to Asian Master over a trip too short at Navan last time. Those two pieces of form look all the stronger after the Supreme and, with the useful Danny Gilligan in the plate, he just about heads up my shortlist. 

It isn’t a totally one-sided affair, as the British have won the Martin Pipe twice in the last four years, with Iroko last year and the game Indefatigable four years ago (seems like yesterday, that) but the home team is not a strong one. You’d like to think at some point David Pipe might win the race named after his father but he’s 0-23 despite chucking some decent ammunition at it over the years. Thanksforthehelp was probably trying to get himself qualified for the Pertemps at Chepstow last time; that failed, and this looks more in hope than any great plan. 

The one I could throw a few quid at each-way from our side is Gary Moore’s Teddy Blue. I’m not entirely convinced he’s in the right race today - the County would have been my preference -  but regardless, he’s developed his own ideas about the game and isn’t one to fully trust. That’s fine if he’s a 40-1 shot, as you don’t have to pay a lot to find out what side of bed he’s got out of, but his recent form is decent enough. He travelled up well to throw down a challenge in the Lanzarote before fading late and, at Ascot last time, was only beaten five lengths in a competitive affair. He will hang left under pressure, and the hope is a fast-run affair will keep him on the bridle long enough before he realises he’s in a race and by then, he’s hopefully got the place part of the bet wrapped up.  

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map

Again, not obviously stacked with pace but hard to see that it won't be truly run. Gordon runs seven so one will likely go on, most likely either or both of Better Days Ahead or Mel Monroe.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: Two bets for me - each-way 10/1 Better Days Ahead and a little win and place at 50/1 Teddy Blue.

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And that, as they say, will be that. I hope that you're having a great week, be it only in sport or with some wagering success too, and wishing you all the best with your Friday plays. Thanks a million for following geegeez this week, and special thanks to the great writing assistance I've received from David, Rory, Gavin and John - top men, all. Do check out their links in the above if you've appreciated their work as much as I have.

Be lucky.

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day 3 Preview, Tips

Day Three, Thursday, and it's out with the Old (Course) and in with the New (Course). Fresh ground then, but plenty of precipitation has tumbled over it so mud lovers aforethought perhaps...

1.30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. The Turners is an intermediate distance novice chase and one which, unlike other intermediate distance races, tends to detract from the Arkle and Brown Advisory without ever really establishing its own identity. For some that will be a harsh interpretation but, besides a couple of arguable exceptions (Vautour, Chantry House, Stage Star - I told you they were arguable), there's little on the roll of honour to get the pulse charging. No matter, for every race needs a winner, and I'd be better investing your reading time in that challenge than navel-gazing about the right for this contest to exist.

This season's renewal fits that 'not quite as good as it ought to be' bill to a nicety. The betting is headed by Grey Dawning, trained by Dan Skelton. A 14 length winner of the G2 Hampton Novices' Chase at Warwick last time, he was flattered greatly by that margin: Broadway Boy and Apple Away went at it from the get go, trading blows as though this was a mile and a half sprint. It wasn't, and they cooked each other allowing GD to plod past exhausted rivals.

Still, he must be a good horse, and his previous second to Ginny's Destiny perhaps holds the key to unlocking this race. That was here but on the other track, but Ginny's has run his last four races - all over fences - here, winning the most recent three including one on this exact track/trip. Paul Nicholls will saddle him and Harry Cobden will steer, and he's very likely to try to make all. But perhaps Grey Dawning handles really deep ground better? Certainly his more patient run style could be favourable.

Pick of the Irish is expected (by the market, at least) to be Facile Vega. Trained by Willie and ridden by Paul Townend, he won the Champion Bumper in 2022 and was second to Marine Nationale in the Supreme last year. That form entitles him to win this, except that over fences he's been a couple of beats slower: having won his beginners' chase on soft to heavy, he's been turned over in a brace of Grade 1's on quicker ground. This will be a first run beyond 2m1f for him and, if he stays - the million dollar question - he's got a right chance.

Iroko was presumed out for the season but returns here for a first run since early November. He was a good winner of last year's Martin Pipe and made a highly promising chase debut on his sole spin this term; but that layoff is a big niggle for me.

Gordon Elliott sends Zanahiyr to this, having pulled stumps mid-season on a hurdling campaign and got two chases into him. The first was a novice-y round behind Fact To File, form which might not look too bad after the Brown Advisory - and, actually, doesn't look too bad anyway; and the second was a hard fought verdict over Aspire Tower over a trip too short. Both those races were beginners' chases and this is a big step up in class, for all that he's mixed it with the best hurdlers for three and a half seasons. His fencing inexperience is a concern and he might be slightly better on a sounder surface.

Venetia sends Djelo here. He started off beating Master Chewy in a handicap chase and then won two more chases, the last of which was a G2, before having no chance when completely buggered up by Matata's errant transit at Lingfield in January. Since then, Djelo ran second to the very talented (and probably under-rated) Nickle Back in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase: that was on good ground and he was ridden patiently, never able to reel in the runaway winner. But that form fits here, and he's probably a touch over-priced.

I'm struggling to make much of a case for the remainder.

Turners Novices' Chase Pace Map

Ginny's Destiny probably leads, with a few close up, but I'm expecting an even gallop.

Turners Novices' Chase Selection

Grey Dawning is clearly a talented horse and he migh just win, but I don't like his price. Similarly, Ginny's Destiny has a small question to answer on the ground for me and his price doesn't allow for that. I think Facile Vega could take a big step forward for the extra three furlongs, and he's a win only play in case he simply doesn't stay. But Djelo looks the one who will appreciate conditions and is a fat price.

Suggestion: Try Facile Vega win only at 10/3 or Djelo e/w at 16/1.

TIX PIX: 'A' banker and maybe couple of C's

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2.10 Pertemps Final (Grade 3 handicap, 3m)

Previewed by Rory Delargy. The first thing to look for in the Pertemps Final is what runs for Gordon Elliott. He’s had 19 runners since 2017 (including one putatively trained by Denise 'Sneezy' Foster) and has saddled three winners and three seconds in that time. All of those horses were priced at 10/1 or shorter, so we must have maximum respect for the Elliott first string, Cleatus Poolaw.

Cleatus Poolaw has the right profile for a handicap hurdle winner here, being an unexposed novice arriving on the back of a career-best effort when 3½ lengths second of 14 to Noble Birth in the recent Naas qualifier. He’s 9lb higher for that which seems fair given that was his first handicap outing and he ought to progress for it. He has a remarkably similar profile to Delta Work, who won this as a novice in 2018 before quickly proving himself a Grade 1 performer. I don’t think Cleatus Poolaw is in that category, but he’s certainly a must for the shortlists in a race with extra places on offer.

Gaoth Chuil is a second-season hurdler who has run really well upped to 3m on her last two starts at Leopardstown and remains unexposed as a stayer. The British handicapper hasn’t been harsh on her considering she may well have won last time but for a late error, and she is in shrewd hands with Ted Walsh as wily as they come. The one off-putting thing is that the only time she has travelled to the UK, she ran her only poor race at Aintree last spring. Plenty of horses dislike travelling and it’s possible that she’s one, for all a sample size of one is hardly enough to make a conclusion.

Le Milos may prove best of the Brits, with Dan Skelton clearly feeling the return to hurdles could pay dividends with last season’s Coral Gold Cup winner. Of similar merit over hurdles and fences when with Tim Vaughan, he has improved markedly for Skelton and is lower in this sphere than over the larger obstacles, opening up the possibility that he could be well treated. He qualified with a low-key run at Market Rasen and was given a strangely (!) negative ride at Ascot last time. There is no better trainer at playing the handicap system at this meeting than Dan Skelton, and Le Milos is following a typical Skelton route of keeping under the radar before the big meeting.

Cuthbert Dibble is a really likeable sort for Nigel Twiston-Davies, and the trainer has won this race twice before, but the last time was in 2008 and his record of a win and six places from 52 handicap hurdle runners in the last two decades is slightly off-putting. Cuthbert Dibble has won both starts over hurdles this term, but that is not a positive historically, with only Presenting Percy since 2010 having won more than once in the current season (and that wasn’t by design!). It’s also unusual for the winner of this to have won a qualifier with only one of the last 22 winners having done so. In short, Cuthbert Dibble’s connections have been too honest in his campaigning, which is why I’d love to see him win.

Kyntara is one to consider at bigger odds, for all he’s shown his hand to a greater extent. Well suited by soft or heavy ground, he has only had nine starts over hurdles and has looked most reliable, only finishing out of the frame once. Second in the Warwick qualifier, he improved again when runner-up to Emitom last time, and while he’s not had his handicap mark minded, he could still run well for Mel Rowley, whose horses are in good nick at present.

Nicky Henderson has a good record at getting his horses into the frame in handicap hurdles at this meeting, but the abject form of the yard suggests that his runners in this may be pulled out; that said, he’s kept some in on Wednesday, and it’s possible that those (housed away from those who have been running poorly, perhaps?) will perform better, which would shed a new light on things. In the meantime, they need to be left alone.

Pertemps Final Pace Map

Plenty of pace on, as you'd expect.

Pertemps Final Selection

Shortlist: Those highlighted in bold, with Le Milos just getting the nod at current prices.

Suggestion: Try Le Milos at 12/1 each way with extra places.

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2.50 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. One shy of a dozen very good, but maybe not great, horses line up for this year's Ryanair. The best of them is probably Banbridge, but he's got a problem: the celestial taps appear stuck in the 'on' position and that's simply no good for him. In fact, he probably won't run. If he does line up and it's wet, he's a lay.

The reigning Ryanair champion is Envoi Allen, and he's back to defend his crown. Last season he won a G1 at Down Royal before a no show in the King George en route to this gig; this time he flunked in a Gowran pipe opener and was pipped in the Down Royal G1. His trainer, Henry de Bromhead, will have him at concert pitch now and the long absence wasn't an issue twelve months ago. Now ten, he's not getting any younger, mind.

Stage Star looked to have assumed the mantle vacated by the same yard's Frodon this season. He runs most of his races at Cheltenham, mixing handicaps with Graded chases and winning them all... until New Year's Day, when he pulled up on heavy ground. He'd won the Turners last season and the Paddy Power Gold Cup (handicap) this season, so if you can forgive that P last time he's a player.

Gordon Elliott brings Conflated to this party, dropping back from three miles after two last fence unseats in a row. He also fell in this race two years ago, his most recent attempt at the trip, but he wasn't out of the reckoning at that point. A clear round makes him a win only player, but he's obviously a risky conveyance in that regard.

Winning the 3m1f Cotswold Chase is an unorthodox prep for a tilt at the Ryanair, but that's the path plotted by Capodanno's connections. He'd previously been third to Galopin Des Champs in the G1 Lexus (three miles) and ran in last year's Grand National. Eh? Turning back the clock a little further, Capodanno was 2nd to Bob Olinger over this trip in a soft ground Punchestown novice chase, and if it's really testing ground and they go quick, it could bring him into calculations. There are quite a few if's there, however.

Fil Dor, another for Gordie, has the opposite range problem: he's been racing at two miles since his very high class juvenile days, two sorties beyond 17f yielding a couple of clunks, in the Coral Cup and a Grade 2 hurdle at Fairyhouse. Although he finished well on the first of his two chase starts this term, he just doesn't look to have the requisite stamina.

If you're starting to see a pattern whereby horses that are too slow for the Champion Chase or not stout enough for the Gold Cup drop in here, the presence of Protektorat will do little to disabuse you of that notion. He's run over at least 2m6f on his last ten racecourse visits, and beyond three miles in eight of those. Two and a half miles it is then... To be fair to him, he's been third and fifth in the last two Gold Cups, but he's not an obvious Ryanair winner to my eye.

Jamie Snowden has Ga Law, winner of the Paddy Power a year before Stage Star and, therefore, similarly proven in today's conditions. Stage Star was rated 155 to Ga Law's 142, though. This fella had a quintet of clunks on his CV post-Paddy Power but arrested the decline in style with a win on Trials Day here in January. He's never quite convinced as a Grade 1 horse and one of the Festival handicaps might have been a better play, for all that such a plan was probably blown with the last day verdict.

Hitman's best form is at least at two and a half miles, as when he was second in the G1 Melling Chase at Aintree two years ago. He was also third in this race last year when sent off 22/1 and he handles muddy turf. I can see him skulking around out of the way before running on quite strongly, and maybe nicking a place at a big price.

And what about Ahoy Senor? Well, I'm afraid, what about him? He's not looked the force of old this season and he's little to no form at the trip. He could have a part to play, however, if he gets embroiled in the early pace; such an act might be a hindrance to the chance of Stage Star who habitually goes forward himself.

In the long grass lies Fugitif, trained by the slightly unfashionable Richard Hobson and second in the Plate last year. He's a two-and-a-half-miler through and through, and he has been campaigned almost exclusively at Cheltenham for two seasons now. During that time, his track record is 222413, all but the most recent figure achieved in handicap company. Then, on Trials Day, he ran in the two mile Clarence House Chase, diverted from Ascot, and finished off well without ever having the pace to challenge Elixir De Nutz or Jonbon. He's another who won't be involved early but who could fall into the frame late - and he's long odds at that.

Ryanair Chase Pace Map

Stage Star is most likely to lead but he may not get it all to himself. Should be a truly run race.

Ryanair Chase Selection

It's a really interesting betting puzzle but not an easy one. I'm inclined to take a small win only chance on Conflated, and two even smaller (like, miniscule) e/w plays - extra places, please! - on Hitman and Fugitif. I won't get rich or poor punting that trio but it might make for an interesting watch,

Suggestion: Try Conflated win only at 8/1 and/or very small each way on 25/1 Hitman and/or 33/1 Fugitif

TIX PIX: A's and B's and C's

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3.30 Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.

All of the last 14 winners had their last run in a Graded race (13/14 in Grade 1 or Grade 2).

All of the last 14 winners had been rested at least 30 days (13/14 46 days).

All bar one winner this century had finished top 4 last time out (exception fell).

13 of the last 14 winners were rated 152+.

13 of the last 14 winners were aged 6-9yo.

13 of the last 14 winners had run at the track previously.

13 of the last 14 winners had run 1-4 times over hurdles that Season (October).

12 of the last 14 winners returned 14/1 or shorter.

9 of the last 14 winners had finished top 2 in all completed runs since October.

8 of the last 14 winners won their last race.

6 of the last 14 winners had their last run at Cheltenham.

No 5yo has ever won the World Hurdle / Stayers Hurdle.

Only 2 horses aged over 9 have won (1986 Crimson Ember & 2023 Sire De Berlais).

All 12 runners stepping up from handicap company have been beaten.

There have been only 6 Irish winners since 1996 and they have come in the last 10 years (Solwhit, Nicholls Canyon, Penhill, Flooring Porter (x2) and Sire De Berlais).

5 of the last 7 winners were 7yo. 7 of the last 10 winners were second season hurdlers.

With four 9yo's, two 10yo's, an 11yo and three 12yo's in the 13 strong line up you'd be forgiven for thinking this is a veteran's race!

Nine-year-old winners are rare with most of those that win being previous winners of the race (Galmoy 87/88, Inglis Drever 07/08 and Big Bucks 09/10/11/12), although Solwhit did win in 2013 on his first start in the race and on his first attempt at 3 miles: there's always a trends busting result somewhere in the history of a race.

Eleven-year-old winners are even rarer with last year's champion, Sire Du Berlais, being the first of that age to prevail since 1986 (Crimson Embers). No ten-year-old has won in the modern era (1972 onwards) or any horse twelveplus (there was a 13yo winner in 1927!). I think it's safest to stick to the 6-8yo age group unless an older horse has previously won the Stayers Hurdle.

That gives us four possibles who all seem to pass the main trends for this race: Teahupoo, Crambo, Flooring Porter and Paisley Park.

As much as I'd like to see Paisley Park turn back the clock and win it for the second time I just think he'll find at least one or two too good as he has done all season. There won't be a more popular winner all week should he manage it but I'm going to reluctantly look to one of the relative youngsters in the field, the 7yo CRAMBO.

He beat Paisley Park in an exciting renewal of the Long Walk at Ascot just before Christmas. Five of the last seven winners have come from that age group, including Paisley Park in his 2019 win, and the selection has done nothing but improve over the last twelve months. He made the transition from decent handicapper to Grade 1 winner at Ascot and, although he'll need to improve again, he looks on an upward curve and more than capable of finding that little bit extra.

SELECTION: CRAMBO 1pt

 

Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map

With Flooring Porter, Dashel Drasher and Home By The Lee all set to go forward, this may be run at quite a fast clip.

Stayers' Hurdle Selection

Shortlist: Teahupoo, Crambo, Flooring Porter and Paisley Park

Suggestion: Try CRAMBO 1pt win at 11/2.

TIX PIX: A's and B's

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Festival Trends

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4.10 Festival Plate (Grade 3 handicap, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by David Massey.

Top of the list for this year’s renewal of the Plate is Theatre Man, for all he’s been well backed in the last 48 hours. That can hardly be a surprise, given his profile, and his latest form - when second to Ginny’s Destiny in the Timeform Novices Handicap Chase at Cheltenham - might already have received a boost earlier in the afternoon. If Ginny’s has won, God alone knows what price Theatre Man might go off. 

He’s only had the three chase starts but has taken steps forward each time, and the way he finished off last time suggests he’s going to enjoy coming off a solid pace. He gets a bit further than this (although on soft ground, he’d not get three miles) and as ever, that’s never a bad thing this week. 

I’d have liked to have seen what Trelawne could have done in the Ultima on Tuesday as regards Crebilly’s chance, as he was last of three behind Jonjo O’Neill’s unexposed 7yo at Exeter and might have given the form a boost. The assumption is that Crebilly has been laid out for this, but Jonjo’s suffered a few reverses in the past couple of weeks and for all the chat is about how moderately many of Nicky’s are running this week, Jackdaws Castle doesn’t appear to be firing on all cylinders either, and he’s easy enough to pass over at around a miserly 4-1.

Henry De Bromhead took no time in getting off the mark this week, winning the very first race, and his Arctic Bresil is the most interesting of the Irish contingent. The Irish used to struggle to win this, but they’ve won five of the last eight renewals and seemingly, like most races Festival week, they are getting the hang of this one, too. Arctic Bresil was, let’s say, quite eyecatching when second to Mister Policeman at Punchestown over two miles last time; he could never get on terms with the easy winner, but stayed on quite takingly for second, not asked for much effort, and looked like he wanted a longer trip. Normally I wouldn’t even look at one that‘s not won over the trip but he’s bred to want this, a half-brother to a couple that won over 2m4f-3m, and since when have the Irish ever taken any notice of trends and stats? 

I’ve desperately tried to crowbar Frero Banbou into this as well, as he’s got his ground and has plenty of Cheltenham form to call upon. Sadly, one of his lesser efforts was in this last year when he finished twelfth, and given he’s not won for over two years, the case for him is thinner than an After Eight mint that's been stepped on by an elephant. Still, Venetia has a decent Plate record, with three winners and two seconds, and I won’t be able to resist a throwaway tenner on the Tote (surely the way to play him) if he’s a monster price. 

And finally, the curious case of Saint Felicien. Well backed for the 2022 Coral Cup, he ran a stinker on bad ground, with connections stating he wanted quicker ground. After an absence of twenty months, he ran a cracker in the circumstances to finish a nine-length third to Facile Vega in a beginners chase at Navan, and although he took another three goes to get off the mark he was quite impressive at Gowran Park last time, jumping a bit cleaner than had been the case. It might be he’s finally twigged what’s required and as an unexposed chaser (this will be his fifth start over fences) he’s open to more improvement. And the ground for all four of those chase starts? According to Timeform - heavy, heavy, heavy and heavy. I’m not so convinced it wants quicker ground...

Festival Plate Pace Map

A Festival handicap. They'll go quick. Saint Felicien and Frero Banbou expected to be up top, and we'll see how long they can stay there for.

Festival Plate Selection

I really like Theatre Man and think he has to go close.

Suggestion: 1pt win Theatre Man 9/2

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4.50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Another of my lesser favoured races of the week is the Dawn Run, but I love the Ryanair, which many people don't, and respect the Stayers' Hurdle - it can't all be golden, can it? This race has thrown some shocks in its time but it looks to have some genuine star quality this time around in the form of Jade De Grugy, Dysart Enos and, notably, Brighterdaysahead.

Let's start with the last named who trained Gordon Elliott has suggested could be the best he's had. I mean, he's conditioned thousands of horses and, I think 88 Grade 1 winners in UK/Ire, so that's a bold shout. If he's even nearly right, she'll win. But let's look at her known credentials rather than the soundbite. She's five from five, two bumpers and three hurdles, and cost €310,000 as an unraced store!

That's because her pedigree is Kapgarde out of Matnie, the mare who'd already produced Mighty Potter, French Dynamite, Indiana Jones and Caldwell Potter, all 150+ RPR horses, although not all of them had run to that level when she was bought. She won a G3 mares' novice by five lengths in spite of a mistake at the last, then she won a Listed mares' novice over 2m5f by 12 lengths without turning a hair. That was on heavy ground and the G3 on soft so it probably can't be wet enough for her.

Jade De Grugy is similarly unbeaten, in three in her case, and she too sauntered home in a G3 mares' novice last time. She'd previously bolted up in a big field maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over this trip and is also proven on very soft turf. On figures, there's little between the two mentioned so far and it's a question of projecting which can leap forward the most in a race where they are both, and many others too, expected to leave current levels of form behind.

Dysart Enos is the one to have achieved the most on the track hitherto. Trained by Fergal O'Brien, she's a Grade 2 bumper winner, at the Aintree Festival last season, a race that habitually throws a slew of future winners. As well as her own three from three form since, second placed - and re-opposing - Golden Ace has won both starts since, and third home Williamstowndancer is three from five subsequently. Dysart Enos's novice hurdle form is all ungraded but she does have a win over the track to her name and on soft ground, too. Most of her form is on quicker sod, mind, and there's a small niggle there.

Jeremy Scott, whose Dashel Drasher has been such an incredible flag bearer, saddles Golden Ace, closest to Dysart Enos at Aintree and a dual scorer at a good ungraded level since. She's by Golden Horn out of a Dubawi mare, so an interesting (blue blood) pedigree. I feel that Golden Horn could be one of the pre-eminent NH stallions in a year or two so it will be interesting to see how this mare goes.

It's quite big prices the rest, led by Birdie Or Bust. Although one must respect everything Henry de Bromhead brings to the Festival, her defeat by Williamstowndancer and whacking at the hooves of Brighterdaysahead suggest she's a lot on her plate. In her defence, she has a 'now' factor about her having won a Listed race last time; that was on yielding, and it will be likely be deeper underfoot, as well as in opposition terms, here.

One rank outsider that should be mentioned is Majestic Force. Trained by Henry, she has had just one run, a rallying win on heavy ground over two and a half miles in a Punchestown maiden hurdle. That's not obviously the answer to this conundrum, but the fact she's entered is interesting even if probably not sufficiently so to merit small investment.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Three who have made a habit of being close to the front, including Jade de Grugy; but we have scant evidence to go on. Will probably be truly, perhaps strongly, run.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection

Some very promising mares in here, most notably the top three in the market. It's close on what they've achieved so far between Brighterdaysahead and Jade De Grugy, and so the fact that the latter is a point bigger tempts me more than the 'best yet' chat about the former (for all that I doubt that's unfounded). Dysart Enos has a bit to find on hurdles form and there is usually something less considered lurking that can improve into podium contention - that could be Golden Ace or Majestic Force. But this looks very likely to go to the top of the market.

Suggestion: Back 9/4 Jade De Grugy as a credible value alternative to a very promising hype horse in Brighterdaysahead.

TIX PIX: A banker with a few C's

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5.30 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)

Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk. The Kim Muir has not been a good race for favourite backers in recent seasons with favourites (clear & joint) recording only one winner from 12 bets -£8 to £1 stake, 4 placed in the last ten years.

Eight of the last ten winners of the races were returned between 3/1 & 12/1. However, there have been two winners at 40/1, including Chambard in 2022.

Eight winners were ages 7 & 8.

Nine winners carried 11-0 or more. Those carrying less than 11-0 are one winner from 47 runners, two placed. The sole winner carrying below 11 stone was Chambard.

Eight of the last ten winners had an Official Rating 137+.

Six of the last ten winners were running within 30 days of their last start. If you had backed all 63 runners you would have made a £52.5pts profit to a £1 level stake and +100.76 to BFSP.

This year's Kim Muir boasts both an impressive field size and depth. Indeed, one could make a compelling case for half of the 24-strong field.

Inothewayurthinkin appears to have been meticulously prepared for this race and can improve for the step up to 3m 2f. With favourable ground conditions and the talented Derek O’Connor booked, he emerges as a strong contender. However, there are slight concerns regarding his jumping, and his current odds don’t offer much value in such a competitive field. 

Where It All Began recently secured his first win over fences in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown, displaying a preference for testing ground and 3m 3f. Although his chances may be affected by drying ground, he remains nicely handicapped and could be a serious threat if replicating that recent performance. Stablemate Cool Survivor, while yet to win over fences, has won over hurdles (3m) and could improve for today's longer trip.

Angels Dawn, last year’s winner, showcased a return to form with a third-place finish in the Thyestes Chase. However, she’s 11lb higher than 12 months ago and faces a stronger line-up this time around.

Dom Of Mary demonstrated his staying ability when winning the Sussex National (3m 4½ f) at Plumpton two starts back and wasn’t disgraced off 9lb higher when 1 ¾ length 3rd of 8 at Sandown (3m) last time.  A good stamina test will suit, and he’s got scope off his present mark when he gets such a test.

Rapper won a handicap chase over course and distance last January. Mostly out of form since, he returned to something like his best when a length 2nd of nine to Threeunderthrufive at Ascot last time. He needs to back up that latest effort which isn’t certain given his profile, but he’s got each way claims on a going day.

Bowtogreatness remains a maiden after nine starts over the larger obstacles but ran a cracker when 2½ lengths 3rd of 12 to Forward Plan in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton 19 days ago. However, it's worth noting that he didn't display the strongest finishing effort at Kempton, a pattern observed previously. It’s a tough race to try to break the maiden tag over fences but he’s handicapped to be competitive.

Daily Present, despite lacking experience over fences, displayed a good attitude to rally and win on handicap chase debut at Down Royal (3m) last time. The way he finished his race last time suggests a step up in trip will suit and he could be yet another dark horse in the mix.

Lastly, Whacker Clan, a winner over course and distance in October, looks poised to perform well. The runner-up that day, Twig, finished second in the Ultima here on Tuesday. This chap was not seen again until a prep run over hurdles last month, and that run should have put him spot on fitness wise; provided the ground isn’t too testing, he’s certainly one to watch closely. Stablemate Amirite was better fancied in the betting in the Cheltenham race but unfortunately his saddle slipped, resulting in a 4th place finish. On his latest outing he finished 5th of 27 in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. While he seemed to handle soft ground adequately there, his winning performances have mostly been on a sounder surface. His stamina for the 3m 2f distance still needs to be demonstrated, but he's likely on a fair mark.  

Kim Muir Pace Map

It's a huge field handicap chase. They'll go quick.

Kim Muir Selection

Considering the size of the field, it's a race where more than one bet can be justified, and that's my approach. I'm opting against the potentially well-handicapped favourite Inothewayurthinkin, even though he might end up winning. At 7/1 odds I might have been interested, but at 7/2 I'm looking elsewhere. That leaves me with Where It All Began, Whacker Clan, Daily Present, and Rapper.

While Rapper has the potential to win if it's his day, his inconsistency makes me hesitant. However, I might place a small saver bet on him just in case he triumphs at a big price and I miss out. Daily Present appears to be a wise guy horse from Ireland and could attract money, but he lacks the necessary experience for me. Thus, my focus shifts to Where It All Began and Whacker Clan.

Suggestion: 1pt win 14/1 Where It All Began and 12/1 Whacker Clan

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Good luck!

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

Day Two. Wednesday. The second half of the first half and a day when, seemingly, it has rained since time immemorial. After a full on drenching last year, the action may again be played out under sullen skies and over sodden swards. Be that as it may, we have a second septet of compelling skirmishes, each one an opportunity to play up - or down - our tank. Vamanos!

1.30 Gallagher Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

Ah, the Ballymore Baring Bingham Gallagher Novices' Hurdle. Fair play to the new sponsors, who stepped in at the eleventh hour to support this race and who, I trust, got a commensurate discount as a result. It's a disappointing reality that sponsors are hard to come by at the pinnacle event - certainly the one where those hawking products and services can expect the most eyeballs and, therefore, traction - in the sport. By my count, and there might be reasons unknown to me for why they're not, none of the National Hunt Chase, Grand Annual, County and Martin Pipe have a sponsor. Crikey. Anyway, the Bally... Baring... Gallagher does, and good luck to them: they're an insurance company and Jockey Club supporter lest you didn't know.

Down the years, this race has been more of a kingmaker for the Champion Hurdle than the Supreme in spite of that one's recent alumnus Constitution Hill flying the flag for the day one curtain raiser. Gallagher simply looks at Ballyburn and says, "hold my drink"...

There is little doubt in anyone's mind that, prior to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Ballyburn brings the best novice form. His pre-race RPR is 7lb superior to anything else in this race and 10lb clear of the top rated in the Supreme (Slade Steel, who he comprehensively beat last time). Five runs to date (six if you include his easy point win) have yielded two bumper scores, latterly at the Punchestown Festival, and, though beaten on seasonal debut by Firefox, he's since won a maiden (by 25 lengths from a good horse) and the Grade 1 two mile novice at the Dublin Racing Festival, by seven lengths and with another seven back to the third. He's got an almighty engine on him, and seems to be pretty versatile ground wise; the trip is fine and he can lead or race handily; and he's jumped very well in the main.

The only slight reservation I can think of - and it is really slight - is that he's not had to jump a hurdle at the business end in his last two races; so while he's been well on top each time, we don't know how he hurdles under pressure. I expect he'll be fine, but I don't know.

A better question might be to ask which horses can put him under pressure, so let's posit that one. Ile Atlantique, another Willie entry, was outstayed by yet another from Closutton in Readin Tommy Wrong in the G1 Lawlor's of Naas over two and a half last time. Tommy heads for the Albert Bartlett, rightly so as his effort in Naas was very much one of a stayer. It is often said of the Gallagher that it's more of a speed than a stamina test, with runners tending to settle into a steadier rhythm than, say, the Supreme - a two mile burn up from flag fall. That being the case, Ile Atlantique's two mile tactical speed could be valuable, though he's only run once over timber prior to his defeat last time. That was a maiden hurdle which he won by 19 lengths, beating little of consequence. He looks to have a good bit to find, though it's possible that he will locate at least some of the form deficit with Ballyburn for his ultra-shrewd owner, Tony Bloom (pictured above).

Predators Gold is a horse that interests me. He's a son of Masked Marvel, a sire I've bet on being 'the coming man' of the NH stallion ranks by acquiring and syndicating an expensive yearling filly with 50% his genes! It'll be a few years before we find out how good she is, and in the meantime I've become a full-time cheerleader for the Marvel behind the Mask. He's pretty good is this lad in spite of silver medals the last twice. Those were both in G1's, at two miles and then two and three-quarters, and this slight drop in trip on presumed slightly better ground could be the happy medium he seeks. In truth, I don't think he can beat Ballyburn - he's a touch more exposed than a couple of others in here - but he's a good chance of being on the podium again. Does it go without saying that he's a 42nd string to the wildly hirsute Mullins bow?

Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford. He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie. That form reads pretty well for all that it's probably a dollop below the pick of the Irish team. Still, he has very clear potential and might come out as the top home team runner (if you like sound bites, his trainer has apparently suggested Handstands is better than Willoughby Court, who won this race in 2017).

Nicky Henderson has Jingko Blue, three times a runner and twice a winner to date. A non-standard prep has seen him eschew Graded action in favour of a Class 3 handicap last time out; he fair bolted up there, seeing his official rating balloon from 124 to 140 in the process. Even allowing for the further progression that leap implies, he still has something like a stone to find with Ballyburn. And soft ground may not be in his favour, though the jury remains out on that score.

Willie has the outsider Mercurey, too, this one running in the Mr Blobby / Susannah Ricci colours. He's stepping up half a mile in trip and, by Muhtathir, that doesn't look the most obvious manoeuvre (that's easy for me to spell!). So far he's been beaten in two maidens before getting off the mark in a third such race, and that doesn't fit with this race. I can't see him at all.

Jimmy Du Seuil was picked up for €200,000 in October 2022 and then we didn't see him for more than a year - amazing how often that happens with Willie runners - before he just failed to reel in stablemate Asian Master in a maiden hurdle. He was the evens favourite that day so clearly felt to be at a good level, and he made no mistake a month later in similar company.

Having written about these two horses, I was curious as to how Willie's maiden winner to Grade 1 hurdlers have performed. In 2008, Fiveforthree bridged that class chasm as a 7/1 chance in the Ballymore - now Gallagher - i.e. this race. And in 2022, The Nice Guy did likewise at 18/1 in the Spuds race. Thirty others tried and failed, though you'd have got paid out on at least six of them for a place. In other words, market wise, they've probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don't win.

Gallagher Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

More Willies out front than a Festival urinal, and one of them will tow Ballyburn into the race if he doesn't make his own running.

 

 

Gallagher Novices' Hurdle Selection

I am not going to be especially creative here. Ballyburn can lead or follow, handles the ground, has won at the distance, generally jumps fluently for a novice and has the best form. What's not to like? Again, he's not necessarily a bad price even though he's a short price. I like Predators Gold but not to beat the jolly.

Suggestion: Back Ballyburn or just watch the race.

TIX PIX: 'A' banker and maybe couple of C's

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2.10 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.

All of the last 14 winners were rated 144+.

All of the last 14 winners had raced 2-5 times over fences.

All of the last 14 winners had run in the previous 25-80 day period.

All of the last 14 winners had finished top 3 on their last start (when completing).

All of the last 14 winners were aged 6-8yo (10/13 were 7yo's).

All of the last 14 winners had won over hurdles from no more than 10 hurdle runs.

All of the last 14 winners raced over 2m4f-3m last time out.

All of the last 14 winners had raced 6-16 times under rules in their career.

13 of the last 14 winners ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out.

13 of the last 14 winners had finished top 4 in all completed Chases.

10 of the last 14 winners had raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival.

All 27 horses fitted with headgear have been beaten this century.

The last mare to win the RSA was way back in 1981 (all 10 female runners this century have finished unplaced).

None of the last 14 winners had run on the flat.

A disappointing turnout for the race and yet again we have a Willie Mullins odds on favourite, Fact To File, to contend with but this time he doesn't quite tick all the trends boxes due to him going straight from NH flat races to chasing without running, and therefore winning, over hurdles. Although it's only a small chink in his profile it does give us some hope that we can get one of these Mullins hotpots beaten.

Paul Nicholls' Stay Away Fay won last year's Albert Bartlett Hurdle and has had a great start to his chasing career winning his first two and then running the race of his life when a close third in the Cotswold Chase last time out. Racing against hardened, more experienced chasers he battled all the way to the line to get within 3 1/2 lengths of the Grade 1-winning Mullins chaser Capodanno and last year's Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker. Back down to novice company he should go well but wearing headgear is a big no no in the Brown Advisory and I don't like that Nicholls is reaching for the first time cheekpieces here.

If you take that pair out of the race there's very little to separate the other four runners on ratings so I'm going to take a big chance on the outsider of the field GIOVINCO who was a perfect 3 from 3 over hurdles, including a Listed win, and has done well over fences except a surprisingly poor run in the Kauto Star Novice Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day when racing on good ground. He'd previously been only 1 1/2 lengths behind Stay Away Fay on softer ground at Sandown where he travelled strongly through the race before being continously hampered by a loose horse around the 3rd last fence. He still cruised upside the eventual winner as the pair jumped the last and kept on nicely up the run in but wasn't quite able to keep a straight line and keep tabs with Stay Away Fay in the last 100 yards. He had his warm up for this when cantering home in a two-runner Limited Handicap at Newcastle, against a rival receiving 19lb, and I think he has every chance of outrunning his odds here. I just wish we had eight runners for that 3rd each way place.

Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map

An even pace likely, with Stay Away Fay expected to have his own way in front.

Brown Advisory Chase Selection

SELECTION: GIOVINCO EW 22/1

TIX PIX: A's, B's and C's

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Festival Trends

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2.50 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

Previewed by David Massey. For me, this year’s Coral Cup has been about one horse for quite some time now, and more to the point, whether he’d get a run. For a long time I thought he wouldn’t; then the confirmations were made, and I thought he had a chance, and as it turns out, Doddiethegreat (for it is he) has made it with a bit to spare. What were you worrying about? 

One maxim I always have in racing is this; if they’re brought back after a long absence, there’s usually a reason why, and for all that Doddiethegreat has the Scottish Champion Hurdle as the longer-term target, that doesn’t mean he can’t win this en route; and ever since his Betfair fourth he’s looked just the type to give Nicky Henderson a fifth win in the race. 

After an easy score at Ascot following two years off the track last November, he showed he had retained all of his ability when second to Go Dante over 2m1f here in December, form that’s worked out well, not least from the winner who bagged the Imperial Cup at the weekend. He improved again when fourth in the aforementioned Betfair Hurdle last time, not getting the best of luck in the run but staying on strongly after the last and looking for all the world like a step back up in trip would suit. 

He has already won a novice hurdle over 2m5f at Kempton back in 2021, and ground doesn’t seem to bother him. There are many ticks in boxes when looking at his overall profile, and it’ll be a big disappointment - mainly in terms of my ante-post bets - if he can’t go close. 

If he blows out, then what else? Well, classy types have a decent record in the race and Ballyadam, despite the steadier of twelve stone, has bundles of it. He’s also got Festival form, which is never a bad thing, having finished fifth in the last two editions of the County Hurdle, and I do feel this intermediate trip could be ideal after finishing third to Irish Point in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown last time. A hard task off top weight, but definitely one for those exacta and trifecta mixes. 

Doddiethegreat might be Nicky’s main hope, but I’d not be dismissive of First Street either. Whilst we know him best as a two miler these days, he stayed this sort of trip earlier in his career, and he has won a handicap off a 3lb higher mark back in 2022. He’s run respectably against both Lossiemouth and Constitution Hill this year and comes into this off the back of wind surgery, something he seems to need fairly regularly; but he has won after the procedure before, and the way he’s finished off over hurdles on each occasion this year has suggested he requires this step back up in trip. Another class animal with the right sort of mark from which to go well. 

Others to consider for placepot and exactas/trifectas include Langer Dan, reigning Coral Cup champ and now back to that mark after some down-the-field efforts over trips too short, in the main; Sa Majeste, for so long one of the talking horses; and, at a bigger price, Supreme Gift, who has been chasing for much of the season but, back over hurdles at Ascot last time, went down fighting in a ¾l defeat: third home Astronomic View was an easy winner at Warwick on Sunday, so the form has had a boost. The visor, on that day, is retained, and Harry Cobden is hardly a negative either…

Coral Cup Pace Map

Bound to be a nice bit of pace on, and should be fair to most run styles.

Coral Cup Selection

Back Doddiethegreat at 7/1 with as many places as you can find (six generally, Skybet eight but a point shorter as I write).

TIX PIX: A's, B's and C's

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3.30 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

A Champion Chase that has been El Fabiolo's to lose for much of the season. And in the absence of his Closutton mate and reigning champ of the past two years, Energumene, he shows at odds on to register a third victory in a row for that man Mullins, who - let's not forget - had never won the QMCC prior to 2022. More sobering for those taking the short odds is that he'd saddled three odds on favourites, and six priced 9/2 or shorter.

Remember the brilliant Un De Sceaux? Beaten at 4/6 for Willie in 2016. The mighty Douvan? Fell at 9/2 in 2018, when Min was only second as a 5/2 shot, and - worse - 7th in 2017 as a 2/9 chance. Then, more recently, Chacun Pour Soi was returned 8/13 but could only return to the 3rd place area in the winners' enclosure. Since then, Energumene was sent off at 5/2 and 6/5 in his two recent winning years.

So has Willie now found the key? Or should we be wary of quotes of around 1/3? Well, the answer is possibly yes to both questions. A casual glance at El Fabiolo's form, which reads 121111111, four of them Grade 1's, might be enough for the less curious to conclude 'case closed'. There is, however, a small niggle...

We need to talk about El Fab's jumping. It's pretty clumsy and there's no getting away from that fact. If you don't believe me, I've copied the in-running comments from his six races over fences below. He's won them all, but that might be something to keep in mind if you're tempted to pile in at cramped odds.

 

 

In opposition are the usual suspects, pretty much. Jonbon heads them, as he did the rest of the field in last year's Arkle where he was five lengths second to El Fabiolo. After that, he won four on the spin, three of them Grade 1's, before coming surprisingly unstuck at 1-4 in the Clarence House Chase, diverted for the second year in a row to Cheltenham after Ascot was abandoned. His in-running comment that day was prefaced with "didn't jump well", a feature too of his most recent quartet of races. The surprise winner that day was Elixir De Nutz, a likeable and oddly progressive ten-year-old, who had previously been pulled up and midfield in the last two renewals of the Grand Annual: that hardly screams Champion Chase contender. But he has won three of his last four, each time when eschewing his customary front-running role (indeed, when leading early over fences he's won one from ten; when racing prominently early over fences he's four from six - you'd think someone would have mentioned that to connections...)

I mean, I expect this to be well run and the top two in the market - who are clearly the best two horses in the field - have had persistent jumping frailties. While they're comfortably the most likely pair for the exacta, that's not the way to bet.

Last time out, Edwardstone looked a new man under revised tactics. Sent forward in the four-runner heavy ground Grade 2 Game Spirit he barreled clear by 40 lengths from Funabule Sivola. Quite apart from the small field and deep ground, that result is flattering because Boothill looked booked for a certain second, within ten lengths or so of the winner, when ejecting two out. Connections mentioned after that 28th career start, Edwardstone's first as a ten-year-old, that they'd worked out how to ride him. What the... fertilizer? In any case, that chat is patent hogwash as a record of four wins from six completed starts - including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase - when racing prominently asserts. Further, he won the Tingle Creek (G1) when held up so, you know, it's not about the run style, is it? That said, such a sound bite implies he'll want to go forward here and he is unlikely to be alone in that desire.

Getting back to Newbury, and that form line has a dubious look to it; the remainder of Eddy's 2023/24 catalogue is probably a fairer reflection of where he's at: he was twice second to Jonbon before failing to stay two and a half miles behind Banbridge. In his defence, he's the most consistently good jumper of the first three in the market. But I can't really see it.

Who's left? How about Henry de Bromhead's Captain Guinness? HdB is the best trainer at the Festival in recent years - yes, even better than Willie in my opinion - and this lad has strong place prospects. Second to Energumene twelve months ago - Edwardstone tailed off as second favourite, Funambule De Sivola failing to complete - he finished last term getting close to Jonbon in the Celebration Chase at Sandown. He's been campaigned seemingly with this in mind all season: after a G2 win on debut in November, he was pulled up (post race clinically abnormal) at Christmas in a Grade 1 before running on from an impossible position in the Dublin Chase behind El Fabiolo last time. I expect him to be ridden a little closer here, and to benefit from a rapid tempo, and I think he has a decent chance of making the frame. And, if jumping is the watch word, who knows?

That leaves Gentleman De Mee, perhaps the most likely pace angle. The second runner for Willie Mullins and a second for JP McManus, this lad beat Edwardstone in the Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1) at Aintree two years ago and won the G1 Dublin Chase of 2023, too, so he's got plenty of class. Both of those top level scores were on the soft side of good, though it might be a lot wetter here. I just feel that, if Edwardstone also goes forward, and with any or all of Jonbon, Elixir De Nutz, Funambule Sivola and El Fabiolo snapping at his heels, he's going to be vulnerable in the last quarter of the race.

All in all, it's a fascinating renewal of the Champion Chase, and one where jumping could well decide the outcome.

Champion Chase Pace Map

Gentleman De Mee looks the most likely to take them along, with Edwardstone also expected to go forward. Elixir De Nutz could press, too, ditto El Fab or Fumble de Siv. I think they'll go quickety quick.

 

Champion Chase Selection

As mentioned, this revolves around jumping and the unconvincing athleticism of the front two in the market. El Fabiolo is clearly the best horse in the race and, if avoiding serious error, should win. But given that eight of the eleven horses sent off at odds on in the Champion Chase this century have been beaten (5/6, 4/5, 4/5, 4/6, 2/9, 2/5, 8/13, 5/6) I'm looking to back a horse each way. It's unlikely that neither of El Fab and Jonbon will fail to complete so we're probably playing for minor money; but in that context I want to oppose Edwardstone and play Captain Guinness. I feel it might set up for a midfield runner to close into tired horses and he could get into the first two, and then who knows?

Suggestion: Back Captain Guiness each way at 16/1 or so.

TIX PIX: A with couple of C's

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4.10 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Sadly, this race has been abandoned.

The Glenfarclas Chase, a cross country event contested around three ever-decreasing circles before spinning off up the straight of the main track is not everyone's cup of rosy, it's fair to say. Me, I love it, which is not to say that in recent times I've been especially successful at finding the winner. The nature of the race has changed: inaugurated as a handicap in 2005 it graduated to a conditions event in 2016 since when its become a very happy hunting ground for former - and in some cases still - high class chasers.

We're talking the likes of Cause Of Causes, Tiger Roll, and Delta Work, all of them 'medalling' in the Grand National subsequently. And all of them trained by Gordon Elliott (by proxy in one case), a man who trained a National winner before he'd trained a winner in his native Ireland. His horses jump and stay.

Delta Work is the reigning champ, having retained his crown a year ago, and bids for the three-peat (as they say across the pond - yuk). He's knocking on a bit now, eleven years young, but that didn't stop his mate Tiger Roll from bagging his own hat-trick (that's better) at the same age. When Delta Work won this last year he prepped with a 13 length 6th of eight in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan; this year he's prepped with a 15 length 6th of eight in the same race, so we all know where we are with him. He handles wet ground fine - it's wetter on the infield track than the Old and New Courses - and knows his way home blindfold around there.

But there's a ton of back class in the field this time headed by Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, and Savills and National Hunt Chase winner Galvin. Add in this year's Troytown and former Thyestes Chase winner Coko Beach and a raft of credible place contenders at least and it makes for what is very likely the deepest field in Glenfarclas history.

Minella Indo won the Gold Cup in 2021 and was second a year later; pulled up in the Blue Riband twelve months ago, his sights have been lowered considerably and he had a reconnaissance visit in the December handicap over track and trip. There he conceded a stone and a half to Latenightpass but was beaten only five lengths or so. He'd started out this season winning a Grade 3 at Punchestown but was last of the four in the Grade 1 at Down Royal after which this new plan was hatched. He stays well, has class and is proven at the track and the Festival.

Galvin probably doesn't want it too wet. Most of his best form is on a sounder surface, as when fourth in the Gold Cup two years ago; but he's raced mainly on softer recently. Indeed, he was second to Delta Work in this race a year ago and was down the field in the two handicap chases over the track/trip late last year. Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo. This has obviously been the plan all season but I'm not at all sure he can bring his A game when water wings are needed.

One who loves it deep is Coko Beach. He's officially top rated in the line up, on 161, and this season has run 3rd in the Munster National, won the Troytown, been 2nd in the Becher Chase and bolted up in the PP Hogan Cross Country Chase at Punchestown. He stays well, jumps well and handles most ground; the only thing I don't like about his profile is that it's a very un-Gordon Elliott prep for the race! That said, Tiger Roll came to the race in good form when winning his second Glenfarclas in 2019, but it's a weird niggle I can't quite shake. He's taken a few of my quids nevertheless.

Foxy Jacks has run cross country here three times and failed to get round twice, though he did win on the other occasion! That was in the November handicap last year in which the heavyweights Delta Work and Galvin both went missing, presumed not off. The winner that day was in receipt of a stone but faces those old foes off levels here. He's not for me, thanks, and nor are any of the others. Stattler, representing Willie Mullins, might take a few betting pounds but his trainer is 0 from 15, four places, over the Festival banks and barrels.

Of the remainder, I'd give Waldorf more chance than Stattler, and the rest just need to keep out of the way by and large.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map

Something at a big price will lead the dawdle until the third lap, at which point the class horses will pull on their running spikes and clear away. I think.

 

 

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection

Gordon Elliott has won six of the last seven (one of them under the pseudonym Denise Foster) Festival cross country races and has an iron grip on a bid for a seventh. And yet it's Henry de Bromhead who saddles the ante post favourite, Minella Indo. He's highly respected but not as much as Elliott's dominance - as well as six from seven winners since 2017, he's also saddled four of the second placed horses, a quite phenomenal record. Choosing between his entries is not easy and Delta Work might well be the one. But I've been drawn to Coko Beach, still relatively young at nine and in the form of his life. He's no longer an each way price so I hope he'll go very close to winning.

Suggestion: Try Coko Beach at around 4/1 in a cracking renewal.

TIX PIX: A's only

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4.50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

Previewed by Rory Delargy. Two things to have uppermost in your mind regarding the Grand Annual are that the going is likely to be testing and tacky and that the switch back to the Old Course means that it is a kinder race for prominent racers, whereas the stiffer New Course was a benefit for hold-up horses (who can forget Paul Carberry on Bellvano).

There are lots of poorly handicapped horses in this race and it’s not hard to whittle the field down to horses well enough treated who can cope with the conditions and the Cheltenham fences. The significant gamble that such an approach rules out is Harper’s Brook, who is rated one of the best bets of the Festival by a couple of people I respect, but while he’s a talented horse, he strikes me as one of the very WORST betting propositions of the week.

Firstly, it’s well established that for all his talent he is ungenuine and has twice pulled himself up in front after trading at 1.01 on Betfair. I napped him on the latter occasion, so am unlikely to forget it. What really puts me off Harper’s Brook is his record at Cheltenham where he has raced four times without beating a single rival. I’ll be mildly surprised if he finishes the race and stunned, I tell you, STUNNED if he manages to win. I will have to lie down in a dark corner for quite a long time, in fact. A long time.

Saint Roi bids to become the seventh horse in Festival history to win a handicap over both hurdles and fences, but for a horse who was briefly ante-post favourite for the Champion Hurdle a few years back, his record since his County Hurdle win is disappointing, and his only win in his last 18 starts came back in December 2022. He’s capable of getting placed, but too expensive to follow.

Madara rates a mention as a progressive 5yo with a 3-3 record on testing ground, and he went to Ireland to spank the local handicappers at the DRF. I’m not dead against him here, but all the talk about his chances ignores the fact that he’s not only gone up 10lb for that win against largely unconvincing rivals (there really isn’t a great deal of depth to the two mile chase scene in Ireland beyond the top-class runners), but he is now not eligible for a juvenile allowance. That allowance was 6lb when he won at Cheltenham two starts back and still 3lb at Leopardstown but has now been eroded entirely. It won’t stop him, as such, but he’s effectively 19lb higher than when beating In Excelsis Deo two starts back, and I don’t think it has been factored into his price.

The two I like most are Libberty Hunter and Hardy du Seuil with the former looking really solid in the conditions. He would be unbeaten over fences but for overjumping on debut at Chepstow and has added wins at Wincanton and on the New Course here, beating Arkle hope Matata by a length in a 2m handicap in December. Those wins have come on heavy and soft ground and he coped well with the jumping test when scoring last time. Harry Cobden takes over from regular pilot Adam Wedge and that looks no negative, with the handicapper unlikely to have caught up with the son of Yorgunnablucky, who was bred by the shrewd Brian Eckley, who trained Libberty Hunter to win twice in bumpers before he was bought on behalf of the Ruckers for £160k.

Hardy du Seuil is lightly raced over fences having switched back to hurdles last season, but he has some solid form, and very much caught the eye when staying on into third behind Etalon at Sandown last month on his first start since April 2023. He was noted by m’learned friend Mr Massey as looking big and well (ie not yet fit) at Sandown, and he has a good record on his second start after a break, winning on his second start for Jamie Snowden over fences, and finishing third and first having needed his return last season.

His mark of 132 is 3lb lower than when an excellent second at Kelso on his penultimate chase start since when he has scored over hurdles, and the only time he’s been worse than second on soft ground since his debut came when a respectable seventh in the Imperial Cup last spring, with lifetime figures reading 22221723.

Grand Annual Pace Map

Always run at a harem scarem pace, and often suiting those not too far from the teeth of it, you may not want your pick to be too far back.

 

Grand Annual Selection

Suggestions: Try 13/2 Libberty Hunter, or 14/1 Hardy du Seuil
Suggested Place Lay: Harper’s Brook

TIX PIX: A's, B's and C's

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5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1, NH Flat, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk. Just when I was anticipating diving into the Coral Cup or the Grand Annual, Matt presents me with the Champion Bumper! However, upon closer inspection, it seems more like a handicap in terms of the betting.

The Festival Bumper is a good example of race trends evolving, and the trend is away from big-priced winners. Four of the last five winners were returned 7/2 or shorter and the outlier was the 11/1 Willie Mullins trained Ferny Hollow ridden by Paul Townend. All the last ten winners of the Champion Bumper where LTO winners and all of them were aged five or six.

Contenders:

A maximum field of 24 horses are set to compete in this year's renewal. Despite previous trends favouring shorter-priced horses, this year's contest appears to be wide open. The absence of a standout bumper horse from Ireland contributes to the race's unpredictability, reflected in bookmakers offering odds of 6/1 for the entire field at time of writing (Tuesday morning).

Willie Mullins fields the favourite, Jasmin De Vaux, who showcased promise with a victory at Naas on his stable debut in January. Partnered again by Patrick Mullins, he's expected to perform well. Mullins also saddles Cantico, ridden by stable jockey Paul Townend, who cruised to victory at Navan last month.

Gordon Elliott's contender, Jalon D'oudairies, boasts an unbeaten record in two bumper starts and is considered a strong prospect for the race after a victory at Leopardstown last time. He’s got a big chance. Elliott also saddles Romeo Coolio, an impressive debut winner at Fairyhouse who looks an exciting prospect for staying hurdles next season.

You Oughta Know, also trained by Mullins, heads the Racing Post Ratings but faces stiff competition from other contenders.

Fleur Au Fusil won a Naas bumper on racecourse debut and followed up in a Grade 2 mares bumper at Leopardstown last month. Given how keen she was it was notable that she was able to finish off her race as strongly as she did at Leopardstown. It’s not a total surprise that Mullins opts to apply the first time hood on the mare.

Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls' yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling's Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown. Though primarily seen as a hurdling prospect for the future, Sixmilebridge shouldn't be overlooked in this race.

Champion Bumper Pace Map

Pinch of salt pace map...

 

 

Champion Bumper selection

It looks a minefield to be honest with most of the field potential improvers.  Fleur Au Fusil caught my eye with her recent Leopardstown victory, but she'll require the hood to help settle her if she’s to get home, although the faster race tempo should also help. Both Jalon D'oudairies & Romeo Coolio, trained by Gordon Elliott, stand out as strong contenders, and it's difficult to choose between the two. Teeshan appears to be the top choice among the British runners and can secure a place, or even victory, in the race.

In the end I'm wavering between Jalon D'oudairies and Teeshan, but I've settled on the former. The 13/2 available looks fair in a race which I have priced up at 6/1 the field.

 Suggestion: 0.5pt win - Jalon D'oudairies

 

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Good luck!

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day One Preview, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day One Preview, Tips

We're back! The 2024 Cheltenham Festival is here, and I can't wait! Finding winners will, in the main, be tricky; though value is lurking everywhere. The job of our race previews will be to combine those two challenges to try to give you something to cheer and something back at the end of it. I've asked a few smart judges to help me with the previews, so as well as a trio of races each day from yours true, there's one daily preview each from our own David Massey, plus Rory Delargy, Gavin Priestley and John Burke. All the fun of the fair - let's crack on!

1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. The big roar that accompanies this race sometimes feel like a racecourse full of punters has been holding its collective breath for 361 days (or 362 this time around). And the traditional curtain-raiser is usually a very satisfying conclusion to the prior hiatus, pitching together a raft of exciting unexposed types all with even grander aspirations down the line.

In the recent past, the Supreme has not been the Irish benefit it might appear at first glance. Yes, Barry Connell won it last year with the sadly absent from the Festival this time Marine Nationale, but before that Nicky Henderson prevailed in both 2022 and 2020 - and 2016 - and Tom George took the major honours in 2018. Odd years Ireland, even years UK? Probably not, but that's a nice symmetry to remind us that the domestic runners have performed well in recent renewals.

Since 2011, 0nly the very talented monkey Labaik won this without having also scored the time before, and he was 25/1 when the tapes rose (he should have been almost that price to actually jump off). You're not getting north of 4/1 about Firefox who was similarly vanquished the last day. Of course, his supporters will protest that he was up half a mile in trip and didn't stay; maybe that's right, and his form at this range - notably when beating the presumed superstar Ballyburn the time before - stands very close scrutiny for all that it was 'only' a 24-runner maiden hurdle. Let me put it another way: while it won't necessarily stop him winning, Labaik is the only horse this century to win the Supreme having finished further back than third on his prep run. If you still like Firefox (I do, just not his price), you may be heartened to know that he, like Labaik, is trained by Gordon Elliott.

Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins. Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only - and therefore first choice - entry. He's since won another five Supremes, each ridden by the stable jockey (Ruby four times, Paul Townend once). That Paul has opted for Tullyhill is a potential red herring this year because Mystical Power has a retained jockey - and there is nothing to separate them in the market as I write (Sunday afternoon).

Mystical Power runs in the green and gold of JP McManus, but is co-owned by Susannah Ricci and Mrs John Magnier. He's by Galileo out of the star mare Annie Power, which perhaps explains the ownership triumvirate - or at least two-thirds of it. He's three from three to date - a bumper, a novice at the Galway Festival, and the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in January. Winners of the Moscow Flyer include Douvan, Vautour, Min, and more recently Impaire Et Passe. While the form of this season's renewal has yet to be franked, Mystical Power bolted up by seven lengths and he is yet to be extended.

Closest to A Dream To Share in last year's Grade 1 Punchestown bumper was Tullyhill, who got off the mark at the second time of asking over timber having been second on debut at odds of 1-8. Ouch! The bridge jumpers knew their fate early, mind, as he overraced from the start, jumped poorly throughout and was spent by the second last, eventually beaten a whopping 24 lengths that day. Of course, that effort was all wrong as he showed when waltzing home by seven in a maiden field of 25 next time, and more materially when dotting up by nine in a Listed novice on heavy ground last time. That form is questionable in the context of a race like this, though he beat Jigoro by slightly further than did Mystical Power, and he couldn't really have won any more easily.

If you liked Ballyburn for this, his representative is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Slade Steel, who was third and second to the Gallagher Novices' Hurdle favourite in a bumper and a Grade 1 novice hurdle respectively. De Bromhead has ostensibly a poor record in this - though a great record at the Festival - but closer scrutiny reveals that of his eight previous runners, Captain Guinness was brought down two out when still tanking along, Ballyadam finished second, and Inthepocket was fourth, all since 2020 and from just four entries. Henry is perhaps the best target trainer of all in recent Festivals, his hit rate at the last five being a scarcely believable one in seven.

 

 

A bit of a wise guy horse on the preview circuit has been Mistergif, another Willie wunner, this one in the double green of Munir and Souede. Rated 75 or so on the flat in France, he failed to win in nine starts before trying hurdling. Under the new code, he was fifth in a Listed race on his debut and then second in a conditions event, both at Auteuil; but the horse that beat him on that final French start is zero from five (fallen three times, third once) since. True, since transferred to Closutton he's won his maiden by a street, but again that form looks shallower than the toddlers' end at your local baths. He's pretty exposed is this chap and he's shown very little. Of course, he can win, but there's now't in the book to say he should.

Let's go back to the Brits and those even numbers. Nicky Henderson bids for a 2020/22/24 treble with Jeriko Du Reponet, in the same McManus ownership as Mystical Power. Winner of his point by 11 lengths from The Other Mozzie, a relatively modest chap under Rules to this point, he was a big talking horse before making his debut at Newbury at the start of December. He won there, and twice subsequently, but without looking a star on any of those occasions. That said, the most recent effort was in the Grade 2 Rossington Main where the horses beaten into second and third ran 1-2 in the G2 Dovecote next time; that adds some much needed ballast to Jeriko's form.

On numbers, the Seven Barrows runner has plenty to find; but when we consider that Nicky also had second placed Jonbon behind Constitution Hill in 2022 and third placed Chantry House (and fifth placed Allart at 33/1) behind Shishkin in 2020, as well as third placed Buveur d'Air behind Altior in 2016, it's fair to say that he has unleashed some serious horsepower in the Supreme. In fact, overall, 17 of Henderson's 32 runners in the race finished in the first three - take that, Willie! There's a leap of faith required with this chap that there isn't with some of the Irish Grade 1 horses but that's reflected in their respective odds. One does need to keep a weather eye on the yard's form, however, as there have been a fair number of P's on the recent Hendo score card. He hasn't had a runner, let alone a winner, since 2nd March and has just one entered pre-Cheltenham, at Plumpton on Monday.

 

What about Tellherthename for Ben Pauling? It's at this time of year that we hear plenty of "the best I've ever trained" bluster, and Pauling has gone on record as naming this fellow in that category. The son of Malinas, a £200k purchase at Cheltenham this time last year having won his Irish point, was a close second on debut behind the subsequent Grade 1 winner Jango Baie, and followed that up with a 14 length verdict over Lucky Place, who went on to narrow Grade 2 defeat subsequently. Clearly not right when reopposing Jango Baie in that G1 he was pulled up on the soft ground there before beating the geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse Dartmoor Pirate into second at Huntingdon last time. The Pirate has since run a mighty fourth of 17 in the famously competitive EBF Final last Saturday, with Pauling novices filling out the first two places there! Tellherthename was withdrawn from the Betfair Hurdle on account of the ground and connections will want it to dry out as much as possible for their charge. With the forecast being for persistent drizzle and light rain, official going of soft is a very short price. That would have to count against this lad.

One who would be right at home in the mud and at a massive price, too, is Favour And Fortune, second in the aforementioned Aintree G1, and a winner on heavy previously. He was just touched off in a muddling three horse race last time (heavy) with this tempo expected to be more his metier. He was thumped in the Champion Bumper here a year ago (soft), however, so just might not be good enough.

I'm struggling to make a case for any of Kings Hill, Supersundae and Gold Dancer. The latter pair are both trained by Willie Mullins and both came with ostensibly good French form. Gold Dancer could conceivably step forward significantly from his first run for his new trainer but he'd very much need to.

Supreme Novices' Pace Projection

Closutton holds the key to the pace. Mistergif led on his sole Irish start though that was a maiden hurdle only, while Tullyhill has led the last twice. Firefox has also led in two of his last three, likewise Tellherthename. Even to fast looks the most likely pace setup on the scant evidence we have.

 

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection

This looks very open between the top four or five in the market, none of which would be a surprise winner. Mystical Power and Tullyhill are a coin toss for which one finishes ahead, my suspicion being that Mystical Power might edge that side bet. Firefox requires a leap of faith that the longer trip was the reason for his below par effort last time; even if you buy that, questions can be asked as to why he was tested over that extended range; he's a very good horse - duh - but plenty short enough in the betting for my liking. And that brings us to Jeriko Du Reponet and Slade Steel. The former has his trainer's long term Supreme record very much in his favour, but his trainer's recent form very much not. On balance, unless he drifts to a double figure price, I'll let him beat me - if he did drift he'd be playable win only, I think. Slade Steel has a top trainer and top form behind Ballyburn (who was a strong favourite for this before defecting to the Gallagher). He'll be finishing strongly and looks a solid each way alternative to a 'nothing between them' top of the market.

Suggestion: Back Slade Steel e/w at 5/1 or bigger, four places if you can find 'em

Tix Pix: Tix is a smart multi-race bet placement tool that is free to use. You can find it here. There are guaranteed million pound daily placepot pools and £50,000 jackpot pools, with stakes as low as a penny. For obvious reasons (all on the same horses), Tix Pix cannot select the horses I intend to play. Instead, I'll share where I think I'm going narrow or deep. In this race I'll be playing A's only on jackpot and brace for an early bath. Check out Tix here >

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2.10 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. More Grade 1 action, you lucky people, as the first foray over fences, the Arkle Challenge Trophy, follows the Supreme. Somewhat downgraded by the absence of a number of high profile horses, most recently and notably Marine Nationale, the reigning Supreme champ, we're left with a competitive but trappy wagering challenge.

As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed - just - by Gaelic Warrior. Trained by Mullins for Ricci, he was presumed for the Turners after his romp in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices' Chase over two and a half miles at Christmas. But then came Leopardstown and the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) where, in the Grade 1 novice chase there, he just ran a shocker. Mistakes with his fencing likely contributed to him dropping out of contention from before three out, and he was well beaten when unshipping Paul Townend at the last.

It's not obvious, to me at least, why he's running here rather than the longer race on Thursday, and he's a very shaky favourite in my book after that lamentable showing last time (at odds of 4/7). True, he had solid form prior to that, but was never in the Arkle conversation. Perhaps the defection of Marine Nationale has to do with his arrival in this slot, but I just don't like his prep at his price. The first time hood doesn't look a plus either - Willie Mullins has saddled 30 horses with a hood at Cheltenham in the last five years and only one of them won:

 

 

Willie also has Il Etait Temps, soundly enough beaten by GW at Limerick in that Faugheen but a winner either side, most recently in the G1 Irish Arkle, also at the DRF. He too wears a hood here and, though more likely to run his race than Gaelic Warrior, I feel, his best race is not as good as that one's, and only a fine margin in front of Found A Fifty, just a neck back last month. Found A Fifty has led in each of his four chase spins and will face pace contention here; that might compromise his chance. In any case, he looks a little way behind peak showings from the other pair mentioned so far.

My Mate Mozzie was only a length and a half behind Found A Fifty but hasn't raced this year, and his best form looks to be on better ground.

The fourth sub-5/1 musketeer at time of writing is Hunters Yarn, and he's a third wheel for Willie. It didn't really work out for Hunters in the County last season, sent off 11/2 but finishing mid-div, and he's been beaten twice from three starts since: he was second in a G2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse last Easter before kicking off over fences with a tumble at the last when clear. Most recently, he bolted up on his second attempt at a beginners' chase and, while he's generally a very good jumper, he made a horlicks in each of those chase starts. Even in what looks a sub-par Arkle, he doesn't seem quite good enough on the evidence to date.

Remember Quilixios? He was a very smart juvenile hurdler and the Triumph winner in 2021. In the following season he was bested three times by Teahupoo at two mile trips before having a long (nearly two years) spell on the sidelines. Back this season as an older, stronger horse he's won two of three chases, both ungraded. In between times, he was thumped in the G2 Florida Pearl over three miles. Whilst it's perfectly fair to assume he didn't stay there, the balance of his post-injury form requires a lot to be taken on trust regarding retained ability.

Mention this in hushed tones, but is it possible that this year's Irish cohort are not as good as normal? The best of the home guard could be Jpr One, trained by Joe Tizzard. Joe is in good form - two notable winners at Sandown's big weekend fixture - and this one has a nice bit of experience after four chase outings. He unseated at the last over course and distance in November, when seemingly having the race in the bag, but had a win before and since. The 'since' comprises two runs, a third place in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase when making a mistake two out, and a win last time in the G2 Lightning Novices' Chase on very soft ground at Lingfield, narrowly from the re-opposing Matata. Matata is one of the pace angles in the field and that may see him do too much too soon, whereas Jpr One tends to be handy but off the speed.

Nigel Twiston-Davies saddles both Matata and Master Chewy, the latter one of the more experienced chasers in the field. On his run behind Champion Chase hopeful Elixir De Nutz - beaten just a length and a half getting nine pounds - he is better than a 25/1 poke. And there are reasons to throw out his defeat behind Jpr One last time: specifically, he was almost brought down at the first as Matata veered right down the fence causing Djelo to fall and Master Chewy to take back in evasive fashion as the meat in the sandwich. He was unsure at his next couple of fences before regaining some composure but it might be that his race was run.

Authorised Speed doesn't look slick enough at his obstacles, and probably not good enough in any case.

Arkle Pace Projection

Lots of speed, most obviously from Found A Fifty and Matata, but also Gaelic Warrior, Jpr One and Authorised Speed - perhaps others, too.

 

 

Arkle Chase Selection

I really don't like this race from a betting perspective. You have to make excuses for the horses at the top of the market where their price doesn't allow for such latitude. And you have to be imaginative to see the horses lower down the lists beating the ones at the top. But perhaps this is a race for imagination play. In that spirit, I'll take the Brits to beat the Irish, primarily through Jpr One and Master Chewy.

Jpr One has the best domestic form but not by much; he also has a trainer in form and can handle conditions. Master Chewy is a bit of a punt but, if ridden patiently, he might be able to pick up the pieces... and if they go a million on the front then he could just nick the whole enchilada. Of course, he's priced as though he has little chance and that may be how it transpires. Caveat emptor.

Suggestion: Try one or both of Jpr One 9/1 and/or Master Chewy 25/1 each way and cheer Blighty against the raiders.

Tix Pix: Spreading out all over A, B and C in what looks a trappy race. Check out Tix here >

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2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.

The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers. Last year's winner Corach Rambler, which was doubling up in the race having scored in 2022, went on to win the Grand National on his next start while the horse he beat by a neck, Fastorslow, went on to win a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival subsequently and now sits second in the betting for Friday's Gold Cup.

Although they've been getting closer in recent times (2nd and 4th last year), the Irish don't have a great overall record in the Ultima (0/38 since 2007) and you have to go back to 2006 and Tony Martin's Dun Doire to find their last winner. That doesn't mean Ireland doesn't have a say in the race, though, as Irish-bred horses have been responsible for the last five winners and ten of the last 11 (exception French-bred).

A top six finish last time out is very important (14 of the last 15, exception unseated rider) as is a run at Cheltenham previously (all of the last 17 winners, with Dun Doire the last horse to win without course experience) while all of the last ten winners have been rated 139+ (an emerging trend has seen eight of the last ten renewals go to a horse rated 139-148).

All of the last 16 winners had raced at least once since the start of Newbury's Coral Cup Handicap Chase meeting the previous November.

Applying these trends leave us with a shortlist of 4 horses: Monbeg Genius, Victtorino, Chianti Classico & Lord Du Mesnil who range in age from a 6yo to an 11yo.

20 of the 24 winners this century have been aged 7-9yo but there's been an 11yo winner in 2021, a couple of 10yo winners (2007 & 2010) plus a French-bred 6yo in 2018. The three winners before the turn of the century were all 10 & 11yo's so I'm not sure age is too much of an issue for this race.

What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers). Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year.

If we look through the form of the four horses on our shortlist we can see that one of them was third in this race last year, just two lengths off Fastorslow, has run only eight times over fences and his trainer reaches for the first time cheekpieces. The Irish-bred 8yo, MONBEG GENIUS, has long been my fancy for this race and despite his relatively underwhelming run at Kelso a couple of weeks ago that did come on the back of a long break since his excellent Newbury Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase third where he had picked up an injury. He raced strongly until tiring from the second last at Kelso and I'm hoping that he may have just needed the run that day. His trainer Jonjo O'Neill won the race three times between 2009-2014 and horses that had run in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury that season won in 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2023.

He ticks every box and looks a typical Ultima winner. I retain the faith in him and think he has an excellent chance at a decent price.

Ultima Pace Projection

Just an even gallop in prospect in all likelihood despite the large field.

 

 

Ultima Handicap Chase Selection

Back MONBEG GENIUS 1pt EW 14/1 (6 places)

Tix Pix: A's and B's and not straying far from the top of the market.

Check out Tix here >

 

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3.30 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. In what amounts to a tragedy for fans of the sport, Contitution Hill has been suffering with an infection that has sadly ruled him out of this year's Champion Hurdle. He was long odds on to retain his crown having cruised home by a wide margin in his only run of the season, the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. I'm daring to dream that he might show up at either or both of Aintree and/or Punchestown, but realistically it might be better to get him right and go again in a (please God) busier 2024/25 campaign. It should be remembered that he's only seven, so time is very much on his side.

Anyway, enough of the no show, and on with the show show. Every leading man needs a capable deputy, and there can be no finer understudy at the entire meeting to step into the big man's shoes than State Man. Like the absent champ, he is also seven and his record reads well. Very well. F11111121111. The '2' was behind Connie Hill last year, and nothing else has got to within three lengths of him in eight - EIGHT! - Grade 1's before and since the lowering of his colours a year ago. He normally races handily or on the lead, though was held up in last year's Champion Hurdle presumably in the hope the hill found out the Hill, he's won G1's on all ground types softer than good, and he's a country mile clear on ratings. What's not to love? Well, his price maybe, because it's a very short price, though that's not to say it doesn't represent value.

If any horse can stop State Man's procession to glory it might be Irish Point, in the Robcour colours and trained by Gordon Elliott. This time last year, while State Man was getting closest to Constitution Hill, Irish Point was winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Naas. He's since won the 2m4f Grade 1 Mersey Novices' at Aintree, and then this season he's added a Grade 3 at Down Royal and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. So far so good. But that Leopardstown race is contested over almost three miles and, as the name suggests, it was contested at the end of last year. Not since then have we seen this fella. It was a terrifically convincing score there but in a slow time beating (relatively) slow horses. I don't see how that makes him second pick for a Champion Hurdle. But I've been wrong about such things many times before.

Iberico Lord was supplemented for this after the defection of stablemate Constitution Hill, and he has serious handicap winning form this term. Specifically, he won the Greatwood over course and distance in November and then the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. The third and fifth from the Betfair finished 1-2 in the Imperial Cup at the weekend so that form looks solid. In between times, Iberico Lord was well beaten at Ascot and perhaps it was a combination of the slower pace and faster turf that did for him. It should be at least a little bit softer here but whether there's much pace in the race remains to be seen. Whilst he's obviously progressive, he's got about a stone and a half to find on official ratings if the favourite runs to within a pound or three of his mark.

It's possible that Luccia could be sent on in a bid to force a stronger pace, she herself having made all in the race when her barn mate Iberico flopped; but that's not her normal run style. And nor should a 140-rated mare be in the same conversation as a 165+ gelding.

The wonderful veteran Not So Sleepy is hard as nails and still retains plenty of ability even at the ripe old age of twelve. His form in the race is P565 and, though he did win the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth, that was 94 days ago and a weaker G1 you'll struggle to find. Please don't misunderstand me: I love this bloke; I just don't want to bet him to win a Champion Hurdle.

Willie also has Zarak The Brave, who is at least vaguely credible for the frame at a price. His form this season is 1P1, wins in the Galway Hurdle (off 145 in a field of 19 on goodish ground) and a Naas Grade 3 in a small field on soft sandwiching a flunk when he was found to have been post-race clinically abnormal. I'm not entirely sure what that means but perhaps it was a fibrillating heart; conjecture aside, if he can bring his A game he is one of the few within a stone of State Man on ratings.

Champion Hurdle Pace Projection

Either or both of Not So Sleepy and Luccia could go forward, but there's not a ton of obvious early speed.

 

Champion Hurdle Selection

This is all about State Man. He's a very unsexy price but might still be value at around 1/3. You can expect Iberico Lord to shorten if Nicky's team have shown anything prior to this race, and he looks the one with the most upside - he needs to be as the second lowest officially rated in the field and with 26lb to find on a strict interpretation of the book. I don't really fancy Irish Point, who in my view would have been better placed in the Stayers' Hurdle even if his owner does have Teahupoo for that. No, this is State Man's to lose. And I don't expect him to lose it.

Suggestion: Watch State Man win well. And/or back him to do likewise.

Tix Pix: If State Man is beaten, a lot of jackpots will go pop. Including mine. He's never raced on heavy

Check out Tix here >

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4.10 Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m4f)

Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk. Let’s begin with what look like some of the key race trends.

Favourites (Clear & joint) have won 3 of the last 10 renewals of the Mares Hurdle and have performed 44% worse than market expectations. Eight of the last 10 winners had an Official Rating of 147 or higher. Six of the last ten winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) and Henry De Bromhead (2).

Last year's Triumph Hurdle winner, Lossiemouth, made a highly impressive return to action here on Trials Day. While she's the clear favourite and the most likely winner, stepping up to 2m 4f poses a question mark on her stamina.

Lossiemouth’s nearest market rival, stablemate Ashroe Diamond, boasts an impressive record of five wins from six starts against her own sex. If the favourite falters due to stamina, Ashroe Diamond could capitalize, although the fitting of a first-time hood for a return to 2m 4f would be a slight concern. 

Love Envoi, winner of the Mares' Novices Hurdle here in 2022, finished a 1 ½ length second to Honeysuckle in this race last year. Although she hasn't been at her best this season, she was a 9 ½ length runner-up to Lossiemouth in the International Hurdle here (2m 1f) last time. We know she seems to thrive at the Festival and the fitting of first-time cheekpieces could improve her performance against Lossiemouth. Each-way claims remain.

The Henry de Bromhead pair of Telmesomethinggirl and Lantry Lady shouldn't be dismissed outright. Telmesomethinggirl, who returned to hurdling this season after a stint over fences, looked rusty on her seasonal return at Leopardstown but was a lot better when a 1¼ length 2nd of four to Zarak The Brave at Naas last time. It’s worth remembering that she was going well when brought down two out in this race in 2022. Lantry Lady, who falls into the "could be anything" category, boasts a perfect 2-2 record over hurdles with wins on heavy ground. The 2m 4f distance should bring out more improvement in her. Although Rachael Blackmore appears to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Jack Kennedy is a capable substitute. Both of Henry de Bromhead's mares present each-way opportunities. The same trainer also saddles Hispanic Moon.

Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection

An even pace is most likely, perhaps even a slow one. That said, plenty of owners and trainers are represented by multiple runners so they may send a 'hare' forward to chase. Regardless, it's not easy to see this being quickly run.

 

Mares' Hurdle Selection

The outcome of the race largely depends on Lossiemouth's ability to stay the 2m 4f distance today. If she manages to do so, she will outclass her rivals. However, her tendency to be keen raises a doubt about her effectiveness over longer distances. Excluding Lossiemouth, the race appears wide open. last year's runner-up, Love Envoi, is a contender for the places once again. However, I lean towards the Henry De Bromhead duo of Telmesomethinggirl and Lantry Lady. While Rachel Blackmore seems to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Lantry Lady shows more potential for further improvement, making her the more intriguing option.

Suggestion: Lantry Lady – 0.5pts each way – 33/1 @ Bet365

Tix Pix: A's, B's and C's in here in search of a result, I think. Check out Tix here >

Join Victor Value - Geegeez Special

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4.50 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by David Massey.

I was delighted to be asked by Matt to contribute to the Geegeez previews this week, and was even more delighted when he asked me to look at one of the key handicaps each day. Looking forward to working on the Ultima for Day One, imagine my horror when, instead, he gave me the Chinese puzzle ball that is the Boodles. Many thanks to our Dear Leader for his generosity! [Sorry mate! - Ed.]

The Boodles. Plot race, right? Just back the one that’s been given three quiet runs and a mark that’s well below what it’s really capable of. Well, have a look at the price of the winners over the past ten years - just one winning favourite, every other winner bar one returned at double figures including a 25-1 winner, three 33-1 winners and Jeff Kidder at 80-1, who had started out in the August of the previous year and was having his fifth start over hurdles. Stats, schmats. 

My starting point for this is Milan Tino, who wouldn’t fit many of the trends but has been given a chance by the British handicapper off a mark of 126, which looks very fair based on his French third to Jigme in a Grade 2 at Auteuil last October. Jigme went on to win the Grade 1 Grand Course later in the year and that form, along with what he’s achieved in two starts at Cheltenham this winter, make him a solid option. Physically, he’s looked a horse that wants further already to my eyes, and it can’t be a bad thing that he’s already shown form over a bit further than two miles, such stamina likely to come in handy on ground expected to ride soft on the first day after Sunday’s rain. 

Of the Irish, it’s tempting to go in with Willie’s Batman Girac after an eyecatching run at Leopardstown last time, one that certainly suggested the Boodles would be his next stop; but, despite some near misses, this is one race at the Festival that Closutton have yet to get the better of, and I’d prefer Willie Durkan’s Eagle Fang, who comes from the Naas race that has thrown up Brazil, Jazzy Matty, Aramax and Band Of Outlaws in recent times. The way he came clear in the closing stages, in heavy ground, was a good step up on anything he’d achieved previously and whilst this will be his sixth run over hurdles already, which you could argue means other, more lighty-raced types could improve past him, he’s more battle-hardened and should run his race. At 16-1 and bigger, with extra places on offer, that makes plenty of appeal. 

Back in fourth at Naas was Nara, who really has looked a Boodles project on her two starts on Irish shores so far. A ready winner on her only start in France at Auteuil (last April!), she looked very much in need of the experience when fourth to Nurburgring at Fairyhouse in December, her novicey jumping holding her back from finishing any closer than a one-paced fourth; but she travelled and jumped better at Naas, looking some sort of threat between three out and two out before her early exertions saw her flatten out late. The reapplication of the hood looks a smart move, as she was a bit keen pre-race and I don’t expect to see her in the paddock at Cheltenham until the bell for jockeys-up goes, at which point it’ll be straight in and straight out again. There should be more to come once she learns to take her racing better, for all you’d struggle to say she’s been thrown in here. 

If we’re looking for the Hail Mary, a phrase our editor Matt loves so much, then it has to be Latin Verse. He looks so unlike a Boodles winner it’s untrue - this will be his seventh hurdles start and he’s already raced in an all-aged handicap at Ludlow last time out, one which he won by no fewer than 19 lengths. A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient - Timeform expected him to get a stone and more - but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap. If you’re a lover of figures (and we are, of course) he comes out well on both form and time. In some ways he reminds me of last year’s fifth Mr Freedom, who took a totally different route from most Boodles campaigners and was having his tenth start of the season, having taken in a couple of handicaps, by the time he got to Cheltenham, but it didn’t stop him from that strong finish (and might have done better still but for his pilot almost coming off turning for home). I suspect Latin Verse can similarly show that experience is no bad thing when it comes to the Boodles. At 33-1 and six places, he has to be worth a few quid each-way. 

Boodles Handicap Hurdle Pace Projection

Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!

 

 

Boodles Handicap Hurdle selection

Try 28/1 Latin Verse or 20/1 Eagle Fang each way. 

Tix Pix: Depending on how much bankroll I've got left, I'll take as much A action as I can afford, and back up with some B's. There will be hedge opportunities on Betfair if it's worthwhile. Check out Tix here >

 

Sign up to receive David's Cheltenham Festival notebook horses here >

 

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5.30 National Hunt Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy. The National Hunt Chase has changed markedly in character since gaining Grade 2 status and being shortened in trip. What used to be a race for Corinthian amateurs in which anything could – and frequently did – happen, has become a classy contest dominated by Irish shamateurs (that is to say you can’t book one without a buff envelope), and there is no point in the old plodders turning up any more. In some ways that’s a shame, but the farrago of the 2019 running where the few who finished were legless was a pathetic last hurrah for the race of old.

On that cheerful note, let’s dive into the latest renewal, with just the seven runners meaning there’s no point looking for an each-way angle into the race. All seven of the runners have a chance and the first thing I want to say is that the old advice that Derek O’Connor’s mount already has a 5lb advantage is not to be believed. O’Connor has been a fine rider over the years but there are no weak links in the riding line-up here, and this race ought to go to the best horse at the trip, pure and simple.

O’Connor rides Corbett’s Cross, who was a big talking horse before running out here last year, and he was brought down in his prep race for this when the rider was given his traditional ‘feeler’ at Fairyhouse. That is hardly ideal, and while he was a respectable second in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels (Fort Leney) Novice Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas, that form hasn’t really been tested, with the winner injured and Flooring Porter (10 lengths behind Corbett’s Cross in third) reverting to hurdles. He has a chance, for sure, but is of no great interest at around 2/1 given his imperfect preparation.

Embassy Gardens, like Corbett’s Cross, was a big fancy (ante-post favourite) for the Albert Bartlett 12 months ago, but pulled up before running down the field at Punchestown. He’s won both starts over fences in the style of a useful prospect, but his defeat of Sandor Clegane at Naas saw him race on the best of the ground as the runner-up persisted with racing on the chewed-up inside, and impressive as it was, it’s very hard to put a figure on. As such, he’s short enough to be backing at current odds.

On a side note, both Corbett’s Cross and Embassy Gardens wear a hood for the first time, and while there have been several winners at the Festival to wear a first-time hood (Benefficient, Jezki and Western Warhorse to be precise), none since that trio have been successful. On the other hand, many of Willie Mullins’s runners at Cheltenham over the years have worn earplugs which have not been declared, so the figures only tell part of the story.

Salvador Ziggy has achieved as much as the pair above but is a more realistic price, with his second under 12st in the Kerry National a fine effort for a novice. He comes here after an abortive trip to run in the Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in October, and while the absence might be a worry, he was second in the Pertemps last year off an identical lay-off. He appeals as best value of the Irish contingent.

Mr Vango has it to do on the ratings and the other three all met in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot last time, where Henry’s Friend held off Kilbeg King and Apple Away. It may look surprising that the winner is now the outsider of that trio, but he is the one least likely to stay this six-furlong longer trip, and I’m in agreement with the betting market, for all I like the horse.

Kilbeg King got low at several of his fences at Ascot but still stayed on dourly at the end to force the winner to pull out all the stops. Prior to Ascot, Kilbeg King had jumped better when a creditable third in the Grade 1 Kauto Star at Kempton, his jumping allowing him to get into contention in the home straight having been out-paced in the middle of the race by the brilliant winner.

If he can jump like he did at Kempton, then he ought to run really well for Anthony Honeyball, who was unlucky not to win this race with Ms Parfois a few years ago (winner Rathvinden would have been demoted under new whip rules). Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more.

APPLE AWAY is seemingly held on Reynoldstown form, but I thought she was better than the bare result at Ascot, jumping really well on the whole and trying to battle back when getting squeezed out at the final fence. She was picking up again at the line, and appeals to me as the sort to relish a thorough test of stamina. It’s worth recalling that she was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree last April, and it’s typical of Lucinda Russell’s horses to only show their very best form in the spring. She got involved in an ill-advised pace duel when second to Grey Dawning in the Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick and my belief is that she can improve enough for the step up to 3¾m to turn the tables on the pair who beat her at Ascot.

National Hunt Chase Pace Projection

Mr Vango is a forward goer, so too Apple Away; but the small field means they'll likely be steady away over this extended trip.

 

 

National Hunt Chase Selection

Selection: 1pt win APPLE AWAY at 10/1
Exotic Mixers: Kilbeg King & Salvador Ziggy (1/4 pt combination exacta)

*

And that's a wrap for Day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival 2024. Hopefully this has been an entertaining read, and with a little luck, there's a winner or three in its midst. We'll all be back to do it again tomorrow - see you then.

Be lucky!

Matt

London Racing Club: Cheltenham Festival Preview Notes 2024

/in , /by

In front of a packed and enthralled gathering at the Kensington Holiday Inn last night, a panel comprised of some of the shrewdest judges in the racing game assemble to share their wisdom. They were Matt Tombs (MT), Festival stats man extraordinaire, Lydia Hislop (LH), multi-racing broadcaster of the year and presenter/writer of different versions of Road to Cheltenham, Paul Kealy (PK), Racing Post's best tipster, and Jamie Benson (JB), compere and representing the evening's sponsor, tote.co.uk.

Here's what they all had to say...

Tuesday / Day 1

Supreme

PK: Really like Firefox, especially if Ballyburn goes Baring Bingham or in the without market if that one runs here. Worries about the Henderson yard form put me off Jeriko de Reponet. [Of course, there's still time for that form to change]. Daryl Jacob is sweet on Mistergif at a bigger price.

LH: Tullyhill has jumping questions to answer but think he'll end up being the Willie Mullins #1 - this is his only entry. Firefox has a good chance, and think Jeriko might drift to the point where he's a backable price.

MT: Might play an outsiders on drying ground, Favour And Fortune. But really like Firefox and, if Ballyburn goes to the longer novice race, think he's one of the bets of the week.

JB: Mistergif a live outsider. Plenty of chat for him.

Arkle

MT: Don't fancy Facile Vega, or JPR One. Ought to like Il Etait Temps but he always seems like he's about to mess things up! Taking a punt on Hunters Yarn who looks a fast horse, and he's more likely to get away with a mistake at Cheltenham, where the fences are nowadays relatively easy. He just has lots of speed.

LH: Can see Found A Fifty being handy without leading, and performing much better as a consequence.

PK: Feel like Found A Fifty might want further. Think Hunters Yarn is the best horse in the race, he's top class, and is the most likely winner.

Champion Hurdle

PK: Very much like Irish Point as a horse though doubt he's quick enough to trouble State Man.

MT: Didn't think State Man could beat Constitution Hill, but he is a really top class horse in his own right and clear of the remainder of this field.

Mares Hurdle

LH: Will Lossiemouth stay 2m4f? It's not guaranteed. Marie's Rock, always thereabouts at this level, is a viable each way alternative.

PK: Agree about Marie's Rock, and Gala Marceau is interesting at a price if you can forgive the run last time.

MT: Don't think Lossiemouth will stay. She's a lay.

Rest of Day 1

LH: The Goffer has the right profile in the Ultima. Aye Right could be an outsider to note. In the Boodles, Roaring Legend will be a big price after his last time loss but he stays well and is tough. Batman Girac a very obvious alternative. In the National Hunt Chase, Salvador Ziggy has a great profile but did have a mishap in the American Grand National last time; been freshened up since then which could be the key.

MT: Like The Goffer in the Ultima, a top of the market race these days. Also like Salvador Ziggy in NH Chase with the same caveats as LH.

PK: City Chief in the Ultima but worried about stable form; The Goffer is better weighted than when fourth last year. In the Boodles, Gary Moore's Through The Ages, a half brother to Yibir, has class and could be better than we've seen. Broadway Boy is a good bet in the NH Chase, or so I thought - apparently he goes Brown Advisory. Can still be backed non-runner no bet (NRNB) for this NH Chase.

JB: Bright Legend in the Boodles represents the right connections (won with Band Of Outlaws) and exits "that" Naas race that has found the last five Boodles winners.

 

CLICK HERE FOR OUR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL MICROSITE >>

 

Wednesday / Day 2

Gallagher (Baring Bingham)

PK: Ballyburn probably just wins if he runs here.

LH: Ballyburn likely wins in whichever race he shows up in. Predators Gold could be interesting at a price e/w but is a bit of a 'wise guy' horse.

MT: Second string Willie Mullins horse has never won this race or the Supreme. Handstands may be best of the British, trainer Ben Pauling apparently thinks he's better than Willoughby Court (former winner of this race).

Brown Advisory

PK: Broadway Boy form is very good, best of the UK contingent. Had a terrible scope after the Warwick race in which he flopped so that effort is excusable. Fact To File does look smart but Davy Russell thinks he may not stay this trip.

LH: Stay Away Fay could outstay them. He's a very likeable horse. Fact To File looks a brilliant horse but not sure this test plays to his strengths. Like Monty's Star but not his price. Feel like UK is stronger in this division than in many recent years.

MT: Want Fact To File to win, because he could be a good horse for the sport. But think he's probably running in the wrong race (the shorter Turners being a better option). Broadway Boy e/w NRNB a reasonable bet.

Champion Chase

MT: Don't want to oppose El Fabiolo who is short in the betting but not the wrong price. On drier ground, Captain Guinness could be ridden for a place at double figure odds. But think El Fabiolo is an amazing horse who will win easily.

LH: There's nothing to take on El Fabiolo though Edwardstone is a viable e/w bet in spite of the odd jumping liberty. Jonbon is a bit more careful at his fences but on soft ground might not be a play.

PK: Apparently they figured out how to ride Edwardstone last time... as a ten-year-old having his 28th career start! Don't really like backing 10yo+ in the Grade 1's. El Fabiolo is "a tank" and will be extremely hard to beat.

Rest of Day 2

MT: In the last five years, the top two in the Cross Country Chase market have finished first and second, and the third horse hasn't been within 20 lengths of the winner!

PK: In Coral Cup, Built By Ballymore will charge up the hill if the going is soft. Trainer Martin Brassil has saddled the runner in the race in the last two years. Ballyadam is interesting off a layoff in the same race. Love Libberty Hunter in the Grand Annual.

LH: Also like Libberty Hunter in the Grand Annual, and can see Saint Roi running well for all that his hold up run style is probably not ideal for the race. Davy Russell believes soft ground is against Galvin in the Cross Country Chase.

 

CLICK HERE FOR OUR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL MICROSITE >>

 

Thursday / Day 3

Turners

LH: Ginny's Destiny may have been underestimated, think he'll run well. Gaelic Warrior is in danger of going the wrong way while Facile Vega has good Cheltenham form and enjoys soft ground. Want to see how the market evolves before having a bet.

MT: Connections might feel they have to ride Grey Dawning more aggressively. Gaelic Warrior might be a win only bet given his talent but also temperament. American Mike NRNB is reasonable too, though he may go to a different race.

PK: Ginny's Destiny might end up a value price on the day and could be a bet. Gaelic Warrior cannot go left-handed so against him. Iroko is a possible fly in the ointment: he's very talented but has been off a long time.

Ryanair

PK: Banbridge probably won't run/ surely can't win on soft. Can't have the 10yo Envoi Allen. Big field handicap form might be an angle which brings in Stage Star but Fugitif is big at 20/1 and also Protektorat at 14/1 is good value.

LH: Also likes Protektorat. Not sure how much pace there will be, so think Harry Cobden will be able to dictate on Stage Star. Can see the Fugitif argument, and Envoi Allen has proven Cheltenham form.

MT: Banbridge is the bet IF the ground dries out. At 25/1, Classic Getaway could be worth a try. Ran well early season and drop back in trip makes him interesting NRNB.

Stayers' Hurdle

PK: Teahupoo couldn't win last year so why bet him this? Crambo is progressive but he didn't beat Paisley Park and the old guard by much and PP is a bigger price. Flooring Porter would come into the reckoning if lining up here and, on very soft ground, Botox Has (40/1) would get a bet.

LH: Teahupoo is the young class and could easily win. Crambo up and coming, though Sire Du Berlais is perhaps not in the same form as he was when winning a year ago. He's 12 now. Quite strong on Teahupoo.

MT: Teahupoo is the one good horse in the line up. Not sure Crambo's form is at the same level. At big prices, might be worth a chance with Home By The Lee or even Good Time Jonny at 40/1: he's taking the same Pertemps to Stayers' route that Sire Du Berlais doubled up in last year.

Rest of Day 3

PK: White Rhino in the Pertemps and maybe Lord Snootie if getting a run. Farouk d'Alene would be interesting in that race, too, if getting a good claimer to take a few pounds off. In the Plate, Theatre Man is short enough but perfect for this.

LH: Letsbeclearaboutit in the Plate rates a bet. In the Mares' Novices' Hurdle, we're in for a treat between Brighterdaysahead and Jade de Grugy. The former looks the real deal. Dysart Enos will get weight from them as a non-winner over hurdles but Brighterdaysahead has very strong vibes in her corner.

MT: Not sold on Dysart Enos in the Mares' Nov Hurdle, don't the like softly softly approach ahead of a battle like this. In the Pertemps, Gabbys Cross has had a very smart prep and 12/1 is fair enough. Cool Survivor looks a great play in the Kim Muir.

JB: Will chance Apple Away in the Kim Muir.

 

CLICK HERE FOR OUR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL MICROSITE >>

 

Friday / Day 4

Triumph

PK: Need to know how the Nicky Henderson form is before contemplating Sir Gino at odds on. He's looked great but that yard form is a real concern. Ethical Diamond is a very interesting Willie Mullins entry at 25/1 in a place.

LH: Ruby has mentioned Ethical Diamond a few times. Agree about the NJH form before considering Sir Gino, whose own form is excellent. Of the Irish, Nurburgring is vaguely attractive. Majborough is a very good looking horse and one for the future, but he might find the Triumph too much at this stage.

MT: Impressed with Sir Gino but feel he's sure to drift unless yard form turns around very soon. What Paul Townend rides for Willie Mullins will shape the rest of the market. Willie apparently said early season, "My Triumph winner got beat first time out", when talking about Ethical Diamond.

Albert Bartlett

MT: Nine of the last ten winners were double figure prices, this race being a totally different challenge to the small field bimbles most have entertained during the regular season. Like Johnnywho, but main advice is take a couple or three darts at appealing odds, win only.

LH: No strong opinion on this race, though feel Reading Tommy Wrong has a reasonable profile.

PK: "Johnnywho is the only one I've backed in the race"

Gold Cup

LH: Big Galopin Des Champs fan. It was a superb effort last year and, ridden positively, think he's the winner again. Things can go wrong with Shishkin (start, lazy mid-race), ground may be against Bravemansgame, while Fastorslow is a good horse but too short in the betting. Feel that Gerri Colombe is too slow away from his fences. For the frame, try L'Homme Presse - ignore the obvious prep over the wrong trip last time - or Corach Rambler - we don't yet know how good he is.

MT: As a racing fan, I hope Galopin Des Champs wins: he's the star turn and is a perfectly square bet at 6/4 on the exchange. But siding with Corach Rambler at the prices.

PK: Agree with Galopin Des Champs chat. Don't think the ground suits Bravemansgame, Shishkin and Gerri Colombe are the wrong price (not positively) and Corach Rambler is a very good horse.

JB: Could The Real Whacker be the forgotten horse? Not impossible in the 'without GdC' market.

Rest of Day 4

LH: Mares Chase is all about whether Dinoblue stays the trip. Allegorie de Vassy looks vulnerable, so if Dinoblue doesn't stay perhaps the Cromwell pair will emerge: Limerick Lace and/or Brides Hill. In the County Hurdle, Iberico Lord or Zenta - both JP horses - look a strong double act.

MT: The Betfair Hurdle form is red hot, so Iberico Lord could go in again in the County. Dinoblue looks good in the Mares Chase and think she will stay. In the Hunter Chase, hard to understand why Premier Magic isn't favourite. He is a very decent bet at 7/1.

PK: Maybe Lisnagar Fortune in the Martin Pipe.

 

CLICK HERE FOR OUR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL MICROSITE >>

 

Charity Bets

LH: 50 e/w Letsbeclearaboutit - Plate, currently 10/1

PK: 50 e/w Libberty Hunter - Grand Annual, currently 10/1

MT: 50 e/w Gabbys Cross - Pertemps, currently 12/1 in a few places

JB: 50 e/w Bright Legend - Boodles, currently 33/1

Good luck!

Matt

 

Cheltenham Festival Handicaps: An Overview

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For many punters, eyes are fixed firmly on the 2024 Cheltenham Festival as we are now literally days away, writes Dave Renham. In this article I am going to examine the Festival handicaps looking back at the most recent 15 renewals, which take us back as far as 2009. There will be nine handicap races in 2024, four over fences and five over hurdles. These handicaps are bound to be difficult puzzles to solve, unsurprisingly when one considers the number of runners that contest them: over the study period, the average field size for all handicaps has been 22.5!

So, let’s get started.

Cheltenham Festival Handicaps: Market Factors

To begin with, I want to look at the betting market. Here are the Betfair SP returns for different sections of the market:

 

 

At this helicopter level, three things stand out for me. Firstly, the performance of favourites which, as a group, have made a profit. Secondly, the very poor performance of second and third favourites combined. And thirdly, horses priced 7th to 10th in the betting outperforming in win strike rate terms those ranked 4th to 6th. It seems that the value has been with these horses over the past 15 years. Interestingly, horses 7th to 10th in the market returned a profit in nine of the 15 Festival years.

Now, I have combined both hurdle and chase handicaps for the market stats. It is worth noting the favourite stats are quite different when we split into race type:

 

 

Handicap favourites in chases have fared well, winning better than one race in five and returning over 32p in the £. Added to that they have an excellent A/E index of 1.15. Handicap hurdle favourites have performed much less well. This is a good example of why we have to dig deeper into general stats, although we are dealing with smallish sample sizes here. Let me split the results up now starting by focusing on handicap chases.

 

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

Course form

In terms of these races I want to look at whether a previous win at Cheltenham is a positive. To do that, I'll compare the A/E indices of previous Cheltenham winners with those who have not notched a success at the track. This includes all horses that have run at the track before:

 

 

There is quite a significant difference here with past Cheltenham winners the better value. They also have a better overall strike rate.

There is another group of runners that I have not shared yet, which is Cheltenham debutants: horses having their first ever run at the iconic venue. These runners have performed the poorest of all with an A/E index of just 0.63.

Country of Breeding

Next, I want to look to see if the country of breeding makes any difference. Essentially there are three main countries to look at – GB, Ireland, and France. They have provided 97% of the handicap chase runners. Be aware that the win strike rates are going to be low due to huge fields. Here are the splits:

 

 

Irish-bred runners have provided the most qualifiers and they have clearly the best record. The A/E indices for British- and French-bred runners are very low. It should be noted that this is not because handicap chases have been dominated by Irish trainers as we will see later. For the record, American-breds have won two races from 25 runners, but they have had no qualifying runners since 2017, German-breds are one from 18.

Days since last run

Is there a ‘sweet spot’ in terms of the time since the horse was last seen racing? In terms of value there does seem to be. Here are the A/E indices for different groupings. All groups contained at least 250 qualifiers meaning there was a decent sample and similar number of runners in each:

 

 

The first two columns are comfortably the highest implying that horses returning to the track within five weeks have offered the best value. These horses have combined to produce a modest, though not insignificant, 8p in the £ return on stakes. The three cohorts off the track for 36 days or more combined to lose 12p in the £. It seems in handicap chases a more recent run is favourable.

Position Last Time Out

How does last time out performance impact proceedings? Horses that won or finished second last time out (LTO) win far more often than those that finished third or worse. The strike rate comparison is 6.4% versus 3.9%. In terms of profit/loss, however, both groups made losses to Industry SP as you might expect; but LTO winners and runners-up lost 16p in the £ compared with 34p in the £ for horses that finished third or worse. When we look at Betfair SP results we see the following in terms of profit/loss to £1 level stakes:

 

 

Horses that finished first or second LTO have proved profitable to BSP. As a return on investment, this equates to 19p in the £ as opposed to losses of 17p in the £ for horses which finished third or worse LTO.

Of course, both groups have seen big priced winners pop up occasionally which one could argue has skewed both of their bottom lines. However, LTO winners/runners-up have combined to make a profit when the BSP price has been 12.0 or shorter, too. Under these price constraints they have returned just under 8 pence in the £. When we use this price limiter on horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO that group of runners produced losses of 18p in the £.

All the past evidence points to the fact that horses that finished first or second LTO should demand most of our attention when looking for handicap chase selections.

Trainers

Normally when I examine trainer data, we get some potential backing options. However, when we are dealing with competitive handicaps averaging 20+ runners, successful trainers are going to be difficult to find. Here is a list of all trainers who have had at least 25 handicap chase runners during the study period. The table is in alphabetical order:

 

 

Some big names have not managed a single winner in this timeframe including Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton. Following specific trainers in terms of backing to win looks a poor option based on the numbers we see in the table. Hence, I have looked at profit and losses to the Betfair Place market and one could argue a few trainers have the potential to be playable in that context. Here are the findings (biggest profit first):

 

 

Roughly one third of all Gordon Elliott’s Cheltenham Festival handicap chasers have finished in the first four over the past 15 years, which is quite incredible considering the fierce competition in these races. He looks a solid option backing to Betfair Place or each way with traditional bookies. Likewise, his runners should be considered if attacking the placepot.

Indeed, looking back at the bookmaker places paid last year, it's reasonable to assume six places at 1/5 odds (sometimes they paid down to 8th place). On that basis, and at Starting Price, the following returns could have been achieved - using BOG could only improve on these figures:

 

 

Naturally, there are some losing years, and 2024 may be another of those, but as part of a portfolio play, it may be worth keeping in mind.

Elsewhere, Messrs. Pipe, George, Twiston-Davies and Henderson should also not be written off in these races. Their runners would again be considerations for me, certainly as far as the placepot is concerned. One trainer that it seems sensible to steer right away from in Festival handicap chases is Paul Nicholls. Nicholls has long been one of the best trainers in the country but his record in these contests is extremely poor and offers dreadful value.

Finally on trainers, Venetia Williams' figures for both win and place have been skewed somewhat as her three winners were priced 72.43, 66.23 and 42 on the win market, 10.78, 11.88 and 7.2 on the place market. That said, the fact she's had three winners at huge prices means they're likely underestimated.

Run Style

My final port of call for the handicap chasers is run style. We have seen before in numerous articles I have written than run style can be a big factor. Below is a graph showing the A/E indices for the four individual run styles – led (L, 4 in the table below the chart), prominent (P, 3), mid division (MD, 2) and held up (HU, 1).

 

 

As we can see there is a huge bias to horses that lead early or race close to the pace. In fact, if you had been able to predict pre-race which horses would lead or race prominently you would have secured a whopping great profit on both groups to Industry SP, let alone BSP!

 

 

*in this table, the nulls are where - for much older results in our database - the run style has been impossible to score from the in-running comment. 4 is led, 3 prominent, 2 midfield, 1 held up.

There have been 12 horses that have led early and gone on to win a handicap chase at the festival since 2009 and of those, seven had led on their most recent start, while 10 had led in at least one of their last two starts. Also, nine of the 12 had ‘LTO four race pace totals’ of 12 or higher with three of them out-right top rated in terms of pace for their race. Hence, likely front runners should offer us value.

Bonus Handicap Chase Stats

I have a couple of additional handicap chase stats that I think are worth sharing.

Firstly, it looks best to ignore any horse that has failed to reach the first three in any of their last three runs. 288 handicap chasers have come to the Festival with this record and just eight have won (SR 2.8%) for BSP losses of £162.38 (ROI -56.4%).

And secondly, it is preferable to have run at Cheltenham LTO compared to many other courses. Below is a table looking at the performance of Festival handicap chasers since 2009 which had run LTO at any of Ascot, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Kempton, Leopardstown, Newbury and Sandown. These are the LTO courses that have supplied at least 100 runners:

 

 

There is a much higher strike rate for last time out Cheltenham runners but, more importantly, a small profit to BSP and a stand-out A/E index of 1.17 (next best LTO course 0.62).

*

Enough with the handicap chasers. It is time to delve into handicap hurdles now, a group in which I suspect it might be difficult to find strong positive ‘angles’ given the even bigger fields. However, I’ve been wrong many times in the past!

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Hurdles

Course form

I’ll start by once again looking at the past course form data in terms of A/E indices.

 

 

These figures are much closer than we saw with the handicap chase figures. There remains an edge to prior course winners but it is modest at best. Having said that, course winners have snuck into BSP profit, but the figures are skewed by some big priced successes.

Country of Breeding

Irish-breds were the value in handicap chases. What about over the smaller obstacles?

 

 

Irish-bred runners have again proved the best value, though not as dominant as over fences; still, they are certainly more playable than British-bred runners overall. IRE breds have also proved profitable to BSP, with nine winning years out of 15, albeit with a few big priced winners sprinkled into the mix. Such pedigrees clearly outperform their competition because if we compare Industry SP figures, Irish-breds lost only 8p in the £, but British- and French-breds lost a massive 43p and 32p in the £ respectively.

Days since last run

Will we see the same pattern that we did with handicap chasers where there seemed a value bias to horses which had run within the past five weeks (35 days):

 

 

The 50-to-77-day group here have provided the value from a win perspective. They have also provided comfortably the highest percentage of placed horses when comparing the five groups. Maybe freshening hurdlers up with this type of break is the optimum. My takeaway from this is that a medium-sized break from racing is much more a positive than a negative. Likewise, digging deeper into longer breaks, horses off the track for 91 days or more (13 weeks +) have won just three races from 181 runners with an A/E index of just 0.32.

Position Last Time Out

In handicap chases we saw that LTO winners and runners up looked the way to go taking all the data into consideration. In handicap hurdles it appears that we should primarily focus on LTO winners as the graph below illustrates when comparing A/E indices:

 

 

There is quite a significant difference in these values. Not only that, LTO winners have by far the better strike rate, both win and placed, and they have also made a blind profit to BSP. One fact to be aware of is that no LTO winner has won when returning from a layoff of 91 days or more (they are 0 from 39), correlating well with the data shared from the ‘days since last run’ section.

Trainers

Having seen the trainer data for handicap chases, I would expect a slew of low strike rates once more.  The table below is in alphabetical order with 25 runs again the minimum requirement:

 

 

Taking the group of trainers as a whole these are better figures than the chase ones. Gordon Elliott has an excellent record considering the field sizes involved, as has Dan Skelton. Alan King and the Hobbs/White combo have very poor win records, but both have been profitable backing to place on Betfair. Nigel Twiston-Davies has a poor place record on top of his 0 from 40 win performance, and might be one to swerve unless you really like one of his.

Run Style

Finally a look at the run style splits:

 

 

These are far more even than the handicap chase figures. Front runners have an edge but even if your crystal ball was in tip top shape and you had backed all early leaders pre-race, you would have made a loss to SP. Generally, looking at data for all courses, chases tend to offer front runners a much bigger edge than they do in hurdles. The Cheltenham Festival stats correlate strongly with the general findings.

Bonus Handicap Hurdle Stats

Before winding this piece up there are two additional stats I’d like to share with you regarding handicap hurdles.

Firstly, mares are rare starters in these races but when they do run, they have won 7 races from 86 for a BSP profit of £99.06 (ROI +115.2%) – their A/E index is an impressive 1.71.

Secondly, a group of horses to avoid are those aged 9 or older who have combined for just 3 wins from 203 runs, with huge losses to boot.

 

Cheltenham Festival Handicaps: Main Takeaways

This has been quite a deep dive into handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival and I hope there are some solid profit pointers in its midst. Let me finish by focusing on what I think are the key stats from each race type.

Handicap Chase Takeaways

Handicap Hurdle Takeaways

 

*

The Cheltenham Festival handicaps are some of the most challenging wagering puzzles in the entire racing calendar. Finding winners is tough, and requires luck as well as good judgement. I hope that the snippets above will put you on the right side of the ledger come next Friday evening.

- DR

Glorious Goodwood 2023: Day 1 Preview, Pointers, Tips

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The wonderful carnival of racing that is the Qatar Goodwood Festival, or always 'Glorious Goodwood' to many, commences on Tuesday and there is a glut of top class racing and, indeed, races full stop. Eight contests punctuate the opening day, beginning with a big field five furlong sprint handicap and headlined later on by the Group 2 Lennox Stakes, arguably the best seven-furlong race in the British calendar, and the Group 1 Goodwood Cup.

My approach this week will be more short hand than has been historically the case, with one race previewed in depth and the remainder given the pointer treatment: I'll suggest what I think are some of the more material factors to consider in your own deliberations. I might lob in a selection or three where I feel that's appropriate. Anyway, you'll see what I mean as we proceed...

The going is currently good to soft, good in places, with plenty of rain forecast. The latest live weather station readings are here.

1.40 Coral Handicap (5f Handicap 4yo+, Class 2)

15 runners in what I suspect will be wet ground. Draw and pace will be factors but so too will an ability to handle the conditions of a big field and soft turf. These are more exposed runners so Instant Expert is a decent port of call. One horse stands out there: last year's Group 2 King George Stakes second over course and distance, Raasel.

The winner that day was Khaadem, subsequently a Royal Ascot Group 1 winner, and Raasel has been running very well in Group company this season. His Goodwood record is 112 and he handles all going. If there is a draw bias it might be towards low numbers, so trap four will be right in the mix. My only slight niggle is his general waited with run style, but he's tractable in that regard and could get a slightly more forward ride here.

Look for horses that can handle, the going, grade and, if they all go, field size. Then look for bookmakers offering bonus places!

2.15 British EBF Maiden Stakes (6f maiden, 2yo, Class 2)

Not really a race I know anything about. Perhaps look to Goodwood trainers such as Charlie Johnston (taking over from his dad but well advertised as having plotted a squad for this meeting), Andrew Balding and, to a lesser extent, Karl Burke and Charles Hills. Richard Hannon runs a lot of horses in Glorious Goodwood 2yo non-handicaps and occasionally hits the target, but he is expensive to follow (-55% ROI since 2016).

Nine of the last ten winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter, though the other was 100/1! The balance of probabilities is that the market will have this winner in its crosshairs.

2.50 Chesterfield Cup Handicap (1m2f Handicap, 4yo+, Class 2)

Team Johnston have won this four times since 2014 and usually at a price, so Outbreak is of immediate interest. He's up in trip from a mile to ten furlongs but was a length third over this range in a valuable handicap on the All-Weather Finals day consolation card. Showing at 14/1 with Sky - six places - that's plausibly playable on the trainer angle alone. The going may make things more testing, which is a concern, but he's a square price to have a cut at.

Moktasaab was third in this last year off a five pound higher mark and will benefit from a waiting ride from Hayley Turner, a fine exponent of such tactics. He's quite likely to have been 'jobbed up' for this and is 12/1 with the same firm and the same place concession.

3.25 Vintage Stakes (7f, Group 2, 2yo)

The first Group race of the week is a two year old event over seven furlongs. Winners of this have typically been strong market fancies, though it was a 14/1 shot that prevailed a year ago.

It's a bit too tricky for me.

4.00 Lennox Stakes (7f, Group 2, 3yo+)

An excellent race in prospect, and a clear and obvious favourite in Kinross. He was second in the race last year when ridden by Frankie Dettori, and that man remains in the saddle, as he has been in three subsequent wins the most recent of which was the Group 1 Champions Sprint over six good to soft furlongs. He ran well when third in the July Cup last time, again over six, and looks ready to return to seven-eighths. I think he'll win for all that that's a mightily unoriginal observation.

Of his rivals, I am not yet convinced by Isaac Shelby, whose second in the French 2000 Guineas has yet to be backed up by this lad. That said, he's had only the one spin since, when fourth to Paddington in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot; the thinking may be that a true run mile stretches him whereas he can use his turn of foot over seven. Still, he's got it to prove, to me at least.

Pogo has plenty of classy runs to his name which, being a seven-year-old, he's had more chance to achieve. He seems to go on any ground and seven looks his best trip. I can see him running a nice race without having the class or youth to beat them all.

Al Suhail was less than three lengths behind Kinross in the G2 Park Stakes over seven at Donny last September and has picked up a packet of prize money in Dubai at the trip this spring. He ran a creditable race over six at Royal Ascot and can step forward again here. The Park Stakes third was on soft as is most of his best form.

A possible lone pace angle is Audience, who is a steady improver this season for the Gosden squad. He won two back in a fair handicap and then bolted up on seasonal debut this term in a Group 3 a month ago, Jumby his closest pursuer at a distance of two lengths. There are not many miles on his clock and, if he handles the ground - unraced on softer than good - he could be hard to peg back.

That was Jumby's sole defeat in his last five starts, progressing from a Class 3 conditions race to a Group 2 score in the Hungerford last time. He has it to prove on the slow ground but has an otherwise attractive profile.

Closest to 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean twice at the tail end of last season was Indestructible, and he opened his portfolio this year with a score in the Craven Stakes. He's since been battered in both the 2000G and the St J's P and has a good bit to prove at this point in terms of whether he's trained on (and whether his form is good enough anyway).

Winner of the Vintage Stakes last year, over the same course and distance, and also Group 2, was Marbaan. He returns to familiar climes then and may end up the pick of the three-year-olds. That said, Holguin has soft ground form aplenty and comes here off the back of a Listed 7f win at Chester last time. This, naturally, is a step up - two steps up - but conditions fit.

The best horse in this race on official figures, RPR's and Topspeed numbers is Kinross, and he also gets pretty much optimal conditions. Frankie needs to guard against tactical pitfalls in a race where the progressive Audience may get a soft lead; but he rarely misfires on the bigger stages and I think he'll win.

He's an unexciting price but it's hard to find an alternative bet: things look competitive for the places. Audience should get the run of it, while Holguin and Al Suhail are well suited to the conditions; meanwhile, Pogo is a warhorse at this level and Jumby may not be done with his upgrades yet.

But they're all a few pounds behind last year's second, KINROSS.

4.35 Goodwood Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 3yo+)

This looks very competitive indeed with four horses separated by one pound on official ratings. The least exposed is the Gold Cup winner from Royal Ascot, Courage Mon Ami, and that is reflected in his top of the market status. Coltrane, proven on softer turf, where CMA is not, looks a playable alternative to the jolly, though he does have a tendency to find one too good. He's hyper consistent.

At bigger prices Tashkhan stays well and loves the mud, but he has a good bit to find on the form; and Giavellotto is another who could feature. Very tricky.

5.05 Coral Fillies' Handicap (1m, Class 3, 3yo+)

You very likely need to be drawn low to win this. So far, first place has gone to the fillies drawn 1, 5, 5, 7, 15, 2, 3. The winner from 15 ended up winning the next season's Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot so was very smart. Unless there's an equally smart one in here I'd be staying low.

A feature of this field is there looks to be a ton of early speed on, so I'm now favouring low and midfield to held up. That gives me a tentative small stakes shortlist of Back See Daa, Miss Mojito and System (four length 5th in this last year).

Good luck, and don't blame me if trap 20 wins!

5.35 World Pool Fillies' Handicap (6f, Class 3, 3yo+)

If it's genuinely soft, high draws will have it all to do as the heatmap below outlines.

 

A handy position also looks helpful, which brings in plenty:

 

Kitai is a Johnston runner that fits the bill, but it's clearly tricky trappy truly treacherous territory.

Good luck.

Matt

Royal Ascot 2023: Day 4 (Friday) Preview, Tips

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Day four, Friday, at Royal Ascot is the last of our previews this week, and I very much hope you've enjoyed the mix of in-house and guest writers who have covered the action so comprehensively. Do touch on some of the links within the post if you like the way our guests present things - they'll appreciate it.

Right, let's get down to business. Seven more head-scratchers, starting with a proper metaphorical case of nits...

2.30 Albany Stakes (6f, Group 3, 2yo fillies)

The Albany, as races come to preview, is always a race full of fun and games, mainly due to the lack of form on offer. Most of the runners have either never run, or only run once and won that race!

However, we do have a favourite emerging in Carla’s Way, who ran a blisteringly above par time at Doncaster at the start of the month for Simon and Ed Crisford. The horse is drawn well in stall 2, so she should be able to get to the rail and be prominent from the outset, which is of real value in a race of this kind (best case is to be drawn either low or high, and race prominently).

At the other end of the draw is Soprano for George Boughey and William Buick, out of stall 16 and another who is likely to be close to the pace. Boughey is notably operating at a 30% strike-rate with last time out winners, and it would not surprise me at all to see this one challenge for favouritism on the day. It should be noted that 17 of the last 19 winners were drawn in stall 10 or higher, but the two exceptions were in the last two years! They came from boxes 2 and 4, close to the rail.

Presented by the "Cleeve Racing" service
A recent run is also a good sign with all bar two winners (going back to the race's inception in 2002) having run within 35 days. Neither Soprano nor Do It With Style fit this stat.

Porta Fortuna looks attractive on paper, the draw from 8 is a bit of a put off as she will race in the middle of the pack, which can be a bit of a graveyard for wins; but the run at Naas was impressive enough and the booking of Frankie Dettori by Donnacha O’Brien cannot be ignored.

Ryan Moore rides Matrika, who will come out of stall 1, and therefore demands closer inspection. Another horse who was successful over Irish Guineas weekend at the Curragh, she ran above par that day and the money has certainly started to come.

Ascot is quite a stiff six furlongs, hence it is interesting to see that 11 of the last 12 winners had run over 6f at some point before their Albany win.

Shortlist:
Carla’s Way 7/2
Porta Fortuna 7/1
Matrika 8/1

 

3.05 Commonwealth Cup (6f, Group 1, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

The newest Group 1 at Royal Ascot and one of the best races of the week: a stallion maker, in fact. The likes of Muhaarar and Caravaggio have already sired Group 1 winners from the three colts with three-year-old crops, and it may be that Advertise joins them before the end of the campaign. So who among this year's cohort might join this illustrious band?

In the absence of Cold Case, a bakers' dozen go to post, headed by last season's champion juvenile Little Big Bear. He patently failed to stay in the 2000 Guineas (though his performance suggested it was more than just stamina that let him down that day), but bounced back over a sprint trip in the G2 Sandy Lane at Haydock last time. While that was a comfortable score, the horse in second there, Shouldvebeenaring, is a 25/1 shot here. You can make the case that the runner up should be shorter in the betting, or that the winner should not be even money here; but it's fairly tricky to argue the market disparity is about right.

Little Big Bear was still about five pounds below his two-year-old peak effort at Haydock and, again, you can argue that he's sitting on a season best or that he's not quite trained on as the horse he was. I don't really have a view on that except that he's evens, which is a price I'd need to be happy about all such questions. I am not.

Sakheer, a son of Zoffany, is second choice, and he too flopped in the 2000 Guineas, though less emphatically than LBB. His Mill Reef juvenile win was impressive, over this three-quarter mile trip, and he can't be discounted for all that we have only the soft ground mile run in 2023 on which to conjecture.

That is the case with Lezoo, too, after she finished eighth in the 1000 Guineas. Her only defeat in five races last year was a half length second to Mawj, subsequently 1000 Guineas winner, and her four wins include one over course and distance and one in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She looks an out and out six-furlong filly, and the fairer sex have won this twice in the eight renewals and hit the frame five more times, at a slightly better rate than the boys. Lezoo is berthed in the highest box so will need to break alertly and straight

Julie Camacho would be relatively unfashionable in the context of Royal Ascot Group 1's, but she knows how to train a sprinter as demonstrated by her expert handling of Judicial. Shaquille looks another in that mould, a prolific scorer in minor Pattern company - including an easy two length Listed score last time - fully deserving of a tilt at the big time. He's one of the front end pace angles, too, and if getting loose in the lead could take some pegging back.

Noble Style was three lengths behind Shaquille last time and has a bit to prove on his two '23 runs. In fairness, he was far from disgraced in the 2000 Guineas but that was a clunk the last day when odds on; first time cheekpieces might elicit a bit more verve: trainer Charlie Appleby has an astonishing - even for him - 40% hit rate when deploying the sheepskins (14/35, +31.04 at SP).

This is a race that has yet to be won by a horse priced bigger than 12/1, and it's very difficult to see that fact not surviving at least one more year.

On balance, Little Big Bear is comfortably the most likely winner but there remain unanswered questions for a horse trading at levels. I may be missing something with Sakheer because I cannot see how he's less than half the price of Lezoo (who is drifting as I write) - the filly's juvenile form is better than the colt's, and their Classic runs were virtual carbon copies of each other's.

It is possible that one or both hasn't trained on, market vibes suggesting Lezoo is the more likely to fall into those nettles. But I'm going to chance her, each way: on form, she's closest to the jolly and she's a comfortable each way price at 9/1, with books paying four places. And I very much respect the 'cheeky Charlie' angle for Noble Style, who is worth a small win single at double figure odds.

 

3.40 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

This is probably my favourite betting race of the meeting, partly because the market rarely seems to consider the draw bias. Logic would dictate that a lower draw would be better around a bend like this but these big field handicaps are very rough and it seems getting a clear run down the outside is far more important than saving ground by going the shortest route. The PRB3 graph below shows just how crucial the draw can be here.



It’s also worth noting that prominent racers tend to do particularly well, presumably because there is so much trouble in running in these races, that being out of the way of the scrimmaging is a massive advantage.



The above image shows draw and pace bias in combination over this course and distance. The eyecatching overperformance comes from prominent/mid division racers from those drawn middle/high but it also shows the only run style you want to back from a low draw is prominent.

There doesn’t seem to be a great amount of pace on here and the pace seems to be dominated by Godolphin runners so you’d assume those horses won’t cut each others’ throats and harm their respective chances. That might put extra onus on the prominent racers in this.

With that in mind the one who sticks out like a sore thumb is the second favourite, Teumessias Fox. He ran well twice here last year and since being gelded he’s won both his races easily, tracking the pace and cruising clear on both occasions. The handicapper has had his say with a total rise of 16lbs following his last two wins.

He’s earned those rises given how impressive he’s been but there is very little substance to his recent scores, which does concern me. I’m a big fan of ‘hot form’ and those two races look to me like cold form. If his winning distances had been smaller I’d be very much against him; but it’s not his fault they’ve been poor races, and he’s won them both so easily it’s impossible to tell where his ceiling is. The main thing in his favour is he seems to be the perfect horse for this race tactically but is he still adequately handicapped?

Likely to be slightly more patiently ridden, but still within that hot zone of being drawn middle to wide and not ridden too patiently, is the early favourite for this, Al Nafir. Whereas Teumessias Fox’s form is a bit ropey, you can’t really get more solid than Al Nafir’s Old Rowley Cup win. He went up 10lbs for winning that race but the runner up is now 10lbs higher as well, plus the 3rd, 5th, 6th, 9th and 13th all won shortly after.

His overall profile isn’t as sexy as some others, he’s tasted defeat plenty of times, but he seems to have a very specific need for this trip and faster ground and the only time he had that was last season when winning one of the hottest handicaps of the season. This will be his seasonal debut which is a slight concern but Charlie Appleby has had many horses ready first time out this season, for instance King Of Conquest won the Suffolk Stakes off a similar absence in May and it’s likely this has been Al Nafir’s target for some time.

Well fancied 4yos have dominated this race in the past decade so that pair look the most likely winners but I’m reluctant to back Al Nafir at the price because of the absence and I can’t back Teumessias Fox because the races he’s been winning haven’t been strong enough for my liking. With so much else in his favour, I might feel very annoyed if Teumessias Fox is well placed and scoots clear off a no more than even gallop whilst everything else in behind meets trouble in running but so be it.

For various reasons I’m against the majority of the field (Nagano reluctantly because of his absence) but one at a big price I want to have on my side is HMS President. He’s run well in four races here previously without winning and he won a really hot contest last time out at Newmarket. The 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th and 11th have all come out and won and several that ran well are yet to run again so that race could look even hotter within the next few months. He’s only up 3lbs for that which seems very kind. That race was over a couple of furlongs further, on easier ground, but HMS President is equally effective in these conditions and even ran well here on fast ground over 10f last season so there are no concerns about his speed.


HMS President did win last time out but he’s seemed to shirk it in a finish previously, a trait that has seen him finish 2nd in nine of his 33 runs. I’m happy to back him each way at 25/1 with a few bookies at the time of writing, but I also acknowledge the aforementioned pair are more likely winners and could easily relegate him to 2nd if he does indeed run well. So as well as that each way single I’ll be looking to back both Al Nafir and Teumessias Fox in straight forecasts with HMS President finishing 2nd, just as consolation in case he again finds less than expected in a finish. 

Sam Darby - Winning Post Profits. You can join my private service for just £1 if you click here.Sam Darby's Winning Post Profits

 

4.20 Coronation Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo fillies)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The Group 1 Coronation Stakes run over a mile is one of Europe’s premier races for three-year-old fillies. First run in 1840 its been won by some great fillies in recent years including Attraction, Russian Rhythm, Sky Lantern, Winter and Alpha Centauri. The race often brings together the winners of Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas with the French and Irish versions and can be a defining moment in a filly's career.

Just seven have been declared for this year’s race. Sadly, that septet doesn't include 1000 Guineas winner Mawj who misses the race due to coughing. That means we won’t see the much anticipated rematch between Mawj and Tahiyra.

Tahiyra was runner-up at Newmarket and went one place better when running out a decisive winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh. With no Mawj in the line-up, Dermot Weld's entry is likely to go off a very short-priced favourite. She’s got the change of gear that stamps her a high class filly and it would be great to see her put in a performance that shows her to be the best Classic female miler in Europe. Despite being a big fan of Tahiyra, on quick ground I think she could be vulnerable. However, which if any of her six rivals can take advantage?

The reliable Meditate finished runner-up to Tahiyra in the Irish 1000 Guineas as she did in last year’s Moyglare Stakes. Strictly on the formbook she can’t beat the favourite but quick ground does give her a chance of doing so.

Comhra seemingly put in a much improved effort when 1½ lengths 3rd of 10 in Irish 1000 Guineas. The application of the first time cheekpieces probably played their part in that good performance and if they continue to have the desired effect there’s no reason why she won’t be in the shake up.

Sounds Of Heaven improved plenty on her juvenile form when winning a York Listed race last month. She had one of today’s rivals, Queen For You, a short head back in second that day and I think she can confirm placings with that filly. The daughter of Kingman seemingly appreciated the quick ground at York so underfoot conditions should pose no terrors for her. I think she’s an exciting prospect who’s open to plenty of improvement and could be the one to take advantage should the firmer turf prove to be the undoing of the favourite.

Verdict: Tahiyra is the one they all must beat, and she may be good enough to get away with quick ground on this occasion. At the prices, though, I have to take her on. The obvious one is the consistent Meditate who will love the ground and should give her running. If there were three places available, I would be interested in Comhra each way. However, there aren’t, so I’m happy to take a chance on the improving Sounds Of Heaven who can give her trainer Jessica Harrington a third success in the race since 2018.

Suggestion: Sounds Of Heaven – 12/1 general

Royal Ascot 2023: Victor Value

 

5.00 Sandringham Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo fillies)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

It’s highly unlikely lightning will strike twice for me this week in fillies only handicaps but in I dive into what looks another challenging contest, this one for 3YOs only. Yet again I’ll be using my own trends and trainer pointers to help me out.

The trainers…

As this is a race for fillies only, it’s worth recapping some of my musings from Day 2, which did help me land on Villanova Queen, having unearthed Jessica Harrington’s fine record with the girls at this meeting. She’s now 4/14,6p with Royal Ascot Fillies and runs Foniska in this contest. She couldn’t, could she?

As per my preview on Day 2, John/Thady Gosden and Simon/Ed Crisford all have decent records with their fillies and are represented here also with four runners between them. As do Roger/Harry Charlton, they have a reserve here, so require a couple to withdraw in order to get a run. Roger Varian has a few runners also, and he operates at a greater than 15% win SR with his fillies.

Looking more closely in this race and trainers’ records with 3YO Fillies, the majority have a solid enough record, all bar four trainers with a greater than 10% win SR with such types. Roger Varian, William Haggas, John Gosden, Charlie Appleby all have between 17% and 19.5% win SR with their 3YO fillies and could be a group to focus on more generally with such types, and maybe in this race. I’d advise against backing them all though as you’d quickly burn through your betting bank.

One other trainer I’ll flag is Owen Burrows… it could be worth noting that at Ascot (all meetings), in handicaps, straight course only, he’s now 15 bets / 4 wins / 6p / 26% wsr / +10 Betfair SP. With those sent off 10/1 or shorter, 4/10, 6p. He runs Embrace in this, who ran in the 1000 Guineas when last seen. The yard are flying, 3/7, 5p in last 14 days, 78% rivals beaten. This filly also makes handicap debut, and Burrows is 5/19, 8p +3 SP with such types in the last 2 years, another stat worth noting. He operates at a 26% win SR with all his handicappers, which is a bit mad really, he knows the time of day and is worth keeping onside more generally.

Whatever my pokes do in this race, hopefully some those stats are of use moving forwards.

Those yards represented who look in particularly fine fettle include…Charlie Appleby, Aidan O’Brien, Ed Dunlop, Jessie Harrington, Owen Burrows and John/Thady Gosden.

Turning our attention to the ‘trainer race records’ – those trainers to have won the race previously in the last 15 renewals, represented this year…

  • Coppice / Marksman Queen / Bridestones (John/Thady Gosden)
  • Clounmacon (Johnny Murtagh)
  • Magical Sunset / Rich (Richard Hannon)

As always, those runners are worth a closer look.

 

The trends…

The trends for this are not as ‘strong’ as some of the other races this week, but a profile of having placed at least once in the last two starts, having placed once or twice this season and having had 2+ runs this season would have found 12 of the previous 15 winners (12/131 qualifiers, 33 places, just +12 Betfair SP) although this profile was 0/13 last year… however, if it bounces back, we’d be looking at a long list of eight in which we could focus…

Coppice, Jackie Oh, Marksman Queen, Choisya, Clounmacon, Orchid Bloom, Novus, Balalaika

 

Winning on seasonal return isn’t impossible in this, Roger Varian’s Cell Sa Beela the only one trying to do so this year.

William Haggas (0/15, 2p) and Aidan O’Brien (0/9, 2p) haven’t hit the board in this race in the period, which could pose a question for trends qualifiers Jackie Oh and Orchid Bloom, although given the yards, maybe just a matter of time.

 

To the horses…

To my eyes this race is towards the ‘nearly impossible’ end of the Royal Ascot puzzle scale and I’ve banked on my trends helping me out. Unexposed 3YO fillies, most in form, some having been highly tried, others more battle hardened in handicaps. Some of these will relish a strong pace and take big steps forward. The ground could also be plenty fast enough, which is an unknown for a fair few.

I will just mention the pace/race set up… almost all the sustained pace looks to be drawn middle to high, with Mrs Harrington’s Foniska the only pace setter low – she could get free on the front end, dropped in trip, with fast ground an unknown and is no forlorn hope to make all.

But, those drawn in the lower third or so could have their work cut out, unless there’s a track bias and low just rides quicker come Friday. I’ve ended up with three horses drawn 18+, so we’ll see if I’m on the right side…

Jackie Oh – 7s – one for Aidan O’Brien who’s yet to win this but does have a couple of placed efforts to his name. She hits my trends and I was impressed with her Irish 1000 Guineas effort, not far off them 2f out and not exactly stopping come the line when others went forward. The front two in that are classy and this is quite the drop in class. Ryan can ride a patient race drawn high and there’s a chance she gallops all over these, able to cruise along at a higher speed than a fair few in here. Fillies under big weights have won this and she could outclass them for her red hot connections. Her half-sister won this in 2020 also.

Novus – 16/1 - 25/1 – the first of two bigger priced EW pokes. Gary Moore is in fine form, as is his filly, who could well relish this step up to a mile, given there’s stamina galore on the dam side. She certainly wasn’t stopping at Goodwood when bolting up, in a race working out well. She brings a touch of ‘handicap hardiness’ to the party which could be a positive, and she looks to be drawn in the right place and has Andrea Atzeni to help her. She’s got a low weight and just looks overpriced. I suppose fast ground is a question, given her recent form on softer, but it’s more of an unknown and she ran well on Good to Firm over 5f on debut. So, here’s hoping. But at the odds, worth an interest EW wager.

Balalaika – 50/1 - 66/1 – she may be nowhere good enough here but Hayley Turner has won this twice in the last four years and it could be significant that she’s been booked. The horse arrives in form and drops back slightly in trip from Hamilton’s stiff 9f, which looked to stretch her a tad. That was a Sunday Series handicap and they’re competitive affairs which should stand her in good stead here. She can take a pull and they were aggressive with her there. She’s the sort who may well appreciate being buried off a relentless gallop and these are the conditions that can transform horses like this, leaving behind previous form. She hits my trends, Rebecca Menzies is a very good dual-purpose trainer and I’ll trust in Hayley to sneak her into 5th or 6th, which would be a decent result. And you never know!

 It’s likely I haven’t mentioned the winner of course but I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and my other previews. You can read similar musings by joining my FREE Newsletter at the link below…

Click here to join Josh's RTP newsletter

 

5.35 King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo colts & geldings)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

Sandwiched in the middle of the Derby and Irish Derby, the 'Ascot Derby' is usually a poor shadow of either of those Group 1's, and the Epsom winner hasn't shown up here in a very long time. We have therefore to be content with the also rans from Epsom, a few that missed it for one reason or another, a number of lesser lights from the O'Brien stable and a few trainers tilting at windmills hoping to pick up some place money.

The trends say we need a run as a 2yo, 1-3 seasonal runs, 2-7 career starts and the most recent within the last 12-56 days in a class 1-3 race where they finished top 4 (unless it was the Derby). Interestingly, 12 of the last 16 winners had yet to win a Group race.

This year we have the Derby runner-up making an appearance which brings a bit of class to proceedings. The last time the Derby second turned up was in 2010 when At First Sight finished 4th here having chased home Workforce at 100/1 on his previous start. King Of Steel ran a remarkable race considering it was his seasonal debut and he only gave way in the last half furlong with the front two pulling four lengths clear of the remainder. He is a worthy favourite.

We also have the 7th, 9th and 10th lining up to give the race a Derby Consolation look about it.

It is worth noting that only six winners of the King Edward had their last run at Epsom since 1997 but four of those have come in the last six years and four of the six runners in this years field did contest the Derby. Those six winners in total had finished 3rd, 5th (twice) and 10th (three times). Bizarrely, simply backing the 10th home in the Derby when he shows up here would have given you results of 1-3-1-1-5 and a LSP of +12.25pts. That weird and completely accidental stat would point to the chances of Arrest who was sent off favourite at Epsom but seemed to lose his chance before the race had even been run having boiled over before the start.

The two that didn't run at Epsom are Relentless Voyager, who was third in the Italian Derby last time out, and Continuous, who had run third in the Dante but was only 8th in the French Derby. He'll be looking to bounce back from that run with the form of his York run giving him every chance. He's definitely the pick of the pair who side-stepped Epsom and can't be discounted given his illustrious connections (won the race last year with the Derby 5th).

With that emerging trend for trainers to target the race with an also ran from the Derby, usually with those that had failed to handle the course or had an excuse for a poor run at Epsom, I'm going to side with the beaten favourite from the Derby to continue that fine run of horses finishing down the Blue Riband field before running well here.

SELECTION: ARREST (WIN) at 3/1 general

Click here for news of Gavin's 'Horses to Follow from Royal Ascot'

 

6.10 Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (5f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

There’s been some burn-ups over the years at Royal Ascot but I can’t remember the last time I saw one as loaded with pace as this is. 

Using Geegeez pace map it points to no fewer than a potential TWELVE front-runners if you look at the run styles from their last two runs, and that increases to 16 if you make it three runs. The potential for the pace to unravel in the last half-furlong is there for all to see and although I’ll be the first to say that hasn’t happened a lot this week as yet, we’re barely halfway as I write this and the ground is expected to continue to quicken up as the meeting goes on. 

 

 

So the way I’m looking at this at the moment is one that is very much an ar*e-covering exercise. I’ll chance my arm with something that might get clear and not come back, along with a couple that are likely to come from off the pace and weave through late, always an exciting watch at Ascot. 

Mick Appleby went quite close to winning this race with Fantasy Master back in 2021 and he’s got one of the fastest in the field in Michaela’s Boy, who now finds himself back in handicap company after good efforts in the 3yo Championships at Newcastle, where he again found 6f too far, and in the Listed Westow Stakes at York on his latest start where he had little chance on the figures but outran them to finish third. Freddie Larson has been unable to claim his 3lb on either of those starts but can do so here, so he takes off most of the 4lb he was raised for York. His early gate speed could take him clear of these and it’ll then be a matter of hanging on in the last 200yds. 

The other three I think are worth a mention are all “first-timers” of one description or another. 

In the case of Walbank, it’s a first start for Dominic Ffrench-Davis, with Amo Racing shuffling the pack as they do every now and then. Previously with David Loughnane, he went off favourite for the Norfolk last year and only found The Ridler too good. He lost little in defeat in the Molecomb but wasn’t seen after that until a below-par effort in the Westow, finishing well behind Michaela’s Boy. Ffrench-Davis doesn’t get too many first-time winners with other's castoffs though it’s interesting to note Maxi King won first time for him after leaving Loughnane earlier this year, so it can be done. The addition of blinkers might spark him back into life. 

Sweet Harmony looks one of those that will be held up off the pace to come through late, having form over both 6f and 7f, and there is the chance they’ll simply go too quickly for her. Having said that, she had the speed to lead over 6f at Haydock and looked worth a try at 5f on that running, finishing fourth to Get Ahead - just touched off in Group 2 company at Chantilly on her next start - after weakening late. Had she been equipped with blinkers she’d have been even more interesting, as trainer Richard Spencer has a very good record when applying such headgear first time, but she’s still of some interest with the cheekpieces today. 

A final swing will be Brave Nation, who looked a speedy 2yo last year, winning on debut and then finishing fourth in the Norfolk. Things unravelled rather quickly after that and in four starts since he’s only beaten two horses home. However, there was just a glimmer that all isn’t totally lost at Newmarket last time, as he travelled into the race nicely enough before finishing weakly again; hopes now rest on him being gelded since that effort. According to the H/S1 report, Michael Bell is 5-25 with first time gelded runners in the last two years (for a small profit to level stakes) and if it does turn him around you’ve a well-handicapped horse, being some 11lb lower than this time last year. There’s all sorts of risks attached, of course, but at 66-1 you don’t have to pay much to find out what, if any, ability remains. 

*

And that, dear reader, is that. 28 races covered by seven writers, five of them guests, across four days; and a great couple of winners already in their midst. Thank you for making geegeez.co.uk a part of your Royal Ascot 2023 experience and, if you like what we do and are not yet a member of our multi-award winning* Gold racecards and form tools service, you can take it for a spin for as little as £1 at this link.

Matt

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Royal Ascot 2023: Day 3 (Thursday) Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

To the middle day of five, and the feature race of the entire week, the Gold Cup. Run over two and a half miles, and evoking recent memories of both Frankie Dettori and Stradivarius, but perhaps more poignantly of Her late Majesty The Queen and Estimate's win a decade ago. The Queen's enthusiasm and social mandate for the sport is irreplaceable, and it is to be cherished that King Charles - and perhaps especially Queen Consort Camilla - are sprinkling some of their patronage across a meeting so fondly enjoyed by the former sovereign.

Let's get to the sport: Thursday's septet of sizzlers tees off at two-thirty with the...

 

2.30 Norfolk Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)

Presented by the "Cleeve Racing" service

A favourite has not won the Norfolk in the last 12 renewals; however it is not quite as open as you may first perceive, with 8 of the last 12 winners coming from the 2nd and 3rd favourite spots, respectively.

Unlike many races at the Royal meeting prior course form is not required with none of the last 12 winners having won at Ascot, but a win somewhere looks to be a must: 12/12 winners having had a previous run, and 11/12 having had at least one win in the build up to the race.

The question therefore is will Elite Status be the trend-destroyer? He was impressive on second start at Sandown, running a time way above par at the course and winning by an impressive five lengths. Surely if any horse is going to turn the grim record for favourites around, he is.

Noche Magica was beaten by Givemethebeatboys at the Curragh, that one running well in defeat on Tuesday in the Coventry Stakes. Noche Magica should improve for the surface and is dropped back to 5f, having won over that trip at Cork on debut. The 15/2 available at the moment looks more than fair, and it is of some note that the price is shortening. It is also very much worth mentioning that, from a small sample size, trainer, Paddy Twomey has his horses flying in the last 14 days.

A race where it typically pays to be up with the pace, the Wesley Ward talking horse, American Rascal, is likely to give them all something to aim at. Ward is quoted as saying, “he really is something” and, being the first foal of Lady Aurelia, herself a two-time winner here, in fantastic style in 2016 and 2017, out of the Breeders' Cup Classic winner Curlin, he could well be. If you are backing the Ward horse however, you are doing so out of the talk and hype largely and maybe, just maybe, that's enough!

Another horse, shortening as I write, is His Majesty for Ryan Moore and AP O'Brien, 10s in most places. A drop back to 5f will suit and he will be expected to improve for the surface, having won in Listed company at the Curragh on debut. It can pay to be drawn high and held-up in this race, and His Majesty will definitely make the short list.

Outside of those mentioned, nothing else leaps out of real interest. Elite Status looks to be the horse to break the trends and justify favouritism, but I will focus my attention on Noche Magica and His Majesty, the latter being one the market has caught on to.

Shortlist:
His Majesty 10/1
Noche Magica 13/2

 

3.05 King George V Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

25 of the last 26 winners finished top 3 last time out which is quite remarkable for such a competitive handicap while all of the last 13 winners finished top 2. Since 1997 there have been 22 winners to have won at least one of their last two starts with all four exceptions being maidens coming into this race.

All of the 13 winners since 2010 were rated 85-95. If we forget 2020 (the year of covid and a delayed start to the flat) we can also see that all of the last 13 winners had raced within the previous 40 days and had run at least twice that flat season.

Since 2007, all 32 horses to have raced in a maiden last time out have been beaten as have all 21 runners dropping down in trip compared to their last run. All 19 horses to have had their last run in a Group race this century have been beaten (Listed race runners are 1 win from 30 runners) while all five horses to race in a class 5 handicap last time have finished unplaced. Only two winners this century (2009 and 2012) had run more than seven times in their career up to this point with those two winners coming from the 59 horses with eight or more career starts.

Last year's winner, Secret State, was the first winner to carry more than 9-03 to victory since 2001. There had been 49 horses carrying 9-04 or more between those two winners.

John Gosden won this race in 1997 but has seen all 22 runners since then beaten with just four making the frame. His losers include 11 last time out winners, 20 that finished in the top four last time out and ten at under 8/1 including three favourites. He runs three this year with Burglar the mount of Frankie Dettori and the shortest price of the trio. He's won two of his three starts, both novice events either side of a defeat at odds on but the form from all three of those races looks poor with not a single winner coming from the 19 horses he's beaten.

Mark Johnston loved to have runners in this race and he won it five times between 2002 and 2018. He also had seven placed runners including the 3rd in 2020 and the 4th in 2019 from a total of 64 runners in the race. All five of his winners had run at least four times in their career, were rated 85+ and finished first or second last time out. Backing these Johnston types that were 12/1 or shorter would have given you the following results: 113014041017000 That's five winners and three places from 15 runners for a profit of +34.5pts. Son Charlie will be looking to restore the stable's great previous record in the race with Struth, who looks to fit the bill best of their two entries.

Another trainer looking to turn back the clock to former glories in this race is Sir Michael Stoute who won the King George V four times between 1998 and 2008 but has seen all 12 of his runners since get beaten (three placed). He's decided against running Nader King, despite having him jocked up earlier in the week, and that's thrown me a little as I had him down as my best handicap bet of the meeting. Back to the drawing board for me but that's probably a good sign to the chances of Perfuse who is now the only runner from the stable's three original entries.

I'm going to look away from the big name yards, though, to back a couple of outsiders. The first is DOUBLE MARCH who is one of only four runners to pass all the trends. He won at the course last time out in a race that has worked out very well with the 5th, 6th and 7th all winning since and both of the other two horses to have run since finishing second. In fact, in all of the races he's ever contested, there have been multiple subsequent race winners behind him including the Southwell maiden he won at the end of last season which has seen the runner up win his first two starts this season (now rated 91), the fourth win a maiden next time out at 28/1 (now rated 92) and the 5th win a novice event on his next start. Even the 9th home, beaten 12 lengths, is two from two this season and now rated 80. At Ascot last time Double March stayed on well to go clear in the final furlong before being eased close home and looking well worth a try at this longer trip. Up 7lb to 87 for that win I still think he's ahead of the handicapper and I fancy him to outrun his odds.

My other selection doesn't quite fit the trends but comes from the Hughie Morrison stable whose runners since 2010 have finished 35522. His runner this year, MR MISTOFFELEES is therefore greatly respected especially as he has been dropped a pound since his last run in the London Gold Cup handicap, a race that always provides lots of winners through the season. Plenty of subsequent winners have come out of the novice event he won at Kempton last December and he was only six lengths off Dante winner The Foxes in the Craven on his seasonal debut where subsequent easy winner Mostabshir was only a nose in front of him. We'll take as many places as we can and back him each way.

SELECTIONS: DOUBLE MARCH EW 25/1 / MISTER MISTOFFELEES EW 33/1 (6 PLACES)

Click here for news of Gavin's 'Horses to Follow from Royal Ascot'

 

3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

The Ascot Oaks as almost literally nobody calls the Ribblesdale has attracted a bumper field of 19 this year. That is the biggest since at least 1988, and the implication is that there's no standout contender. The betting suggests otherwise, however, with the undefeated-in-two Al Asifah a shade of odds on despite the massed ranks in opposition.

You'd be forgiven for asking, "Who?", because Al Asifah, trained by the Gosdens and ridden by Jim Crowley, only made her debut four weeks ago, in a Haydock maiden. She won by half the track, or just shy of five lengths to be more scientific, and then dished up in a Listed contest, again over ten furlongs, at Goodwood. The margin that day was six and a half lengths and she's clearly 'could be anything' material. Regardless of what she could be, she already is seven pounds clear of her nearest rivals on RPR's and, naturally after just the two appearances, retains a bundle of upside.

So what are the negatives? Well, one is inexperience and two is the chance of a troubled passage in such a congested field: she was held up on debut and raced mid-division last time out, but those were six- and seven-runner races respectively. It's one of the quirks of Ascot that a high draw over a mile and a half is actually a positive, which is counter-intuitive but well supported by any of win or place strike rate, or percentage of rivals beaten as the image below attests. Actually, it may be more accurate to say that low is inconvenienced because middle draws have done just fine, too. Al Asifah has stall 13.

She is also stepping up in trip and, though she's by Frankel, her dam was a miler though with stouter-staying horses close up in the pedigree: she's likely, but not certain, to stay on breeding for all that her visual impression was that she'll relish the extra quarter mile. The fact that the Gosdens have won four of the last six renewals of the Ribblesdale is another string to the bow of her chance.

 

 

But there are plenty of unexposed ascendant types bidding to topple her, led by Infinite Cosmos, Bluestocking and Warm Heart. The first named was only third to the Gosdens' Soul Sister in the Musidora, an Oaks trial, at York; but she had an unorthodox journey that day, missing the kick then pushed into the lead before fading from a furlong out. She may again be handy granted a level beginning but I'd expect a slightly more patient ride than bidding to make all. She is very much bred for this range, and beyond.

Bluestocking represents the Ralph Beckett Midas Touch with fillies; a dual Oaks-winning trainer, he's the only handler apart from Gosden and Aidan O'Brien to win the fillies' Epsom Classic since 2012! Bluestocking was a head behind Warm Heart when they met in the Listed Fillies' Trial at Newbury (10f, good) last time and was closing all the way to the line. Her pedigree doesn't scream middle distances but she'll get help from Frankie, who takes over from Rossa Ryan, in the saddle.

Ryan Moore partnered Warm Heart at Newbury and stays on board here. She's a typically well-bred Galileo filly, out of a mare who won three G1 sprints in Australia. Not necessarily a natural for twelve furlongs, then, and she was all out at the line over a quarter mile shorter last time; but she'd won over the same ten furlong trip on soft to heavy the time before and may see the longer yardage out.

One definitely bred for the gig is Maman Joon, by Sea The Stars out of a Norse Dancer mare. Her siblings include Candleford, a mile and a half winner at Royal Ascot last year, and Atty Persse, also a mile and a half winner at Royal Ascot, in 2017. Maman Joon is a two-race maiden, but the more recent of that brace was when fourth in the Oaks last time out. She's drawn wide in 15 and can improve enough to hit the frame with a reasonable conveyance through the race.

From France, Crown Princesse, trained by Fabrice Chappet, is an interesting contender: she has raced only on all-weather and very soft turf to date but the last of her four races - when a close third in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary over ten furlongs, puts her in the mix. The fact she's travelled implies no going concerns, and she's the sort to have a strong turn of foot as can be seen from the sectionals at Parislongchamp:

 

She may need more luck in the run than many from stall five, but if the gaps open she is expected to finish well.

Of the massive outsiders, perhaps Understated's case may be exactly that: she's yet to finish outside the first two in three starts, and looked to struggle with the track at Goodwood when second in a Listed race there last time (good, 10f). Back on a more conventional circuit, and emerging from a middle draw, she's expected to race handily and is bred to stay well.

In summary, this is all about Al Asifah, who will very likely win if getting a clean run. That 'if' makes odds on unattractive, and I'd rather risk a cup of tea win and sticky bun place about the chance of something at a price. In that context, 22/1 Maman Joon is the unfortunate to be encumbered by my wild speculation.

 

4.20 Gold Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The Gold Cup, run over 2m 4f, is one of the world’s most prestigious flat races, which has a long history dating back to 1807 and is arguably the highlight of Royal Ascot. The race attracts some of the best stayers in training, with notable winners including Yeats, who won the race four consecutive times from 2006 to 2009, and Stradivarius, who matched that feat between 2018 and 2021. In 2013 it was the late Queen’s mare Estimate who came out on top on a memorable day for the sport.

This year’s line-up doesn’t include a Yeats or Stradivarius. That said, fourteen have been declared for one of the trickiest renewals I can remember. I’m not really a trends player but I have noticed that four-year-old’s have a good recent record providing eight of the last 15 winners of the race. It’s also not really been a race for a shock winner with just one winner from 102 runners (-81, 9 placed) being returned 14/1 or bigger since 2008.

The bookies were going 10/3 the field on Wednesday morning with recent course winner Coltrane and last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov vying for favouritism.

Given that not many horses in the modern era stay a truly run 2m 4f it’s a bonus for supporters of Coltrane that the six-year-old is proven over course and distance having won the Ascot Stakes 12 months ago. He’s suited by a sound surface and won’t be far away. 

Eldar Eldarov was a good ½ length 2nd of 6 in Yorkshire Cup on his seasonal return. Has the class to win this and was doing his best work at the finish at York; he could well stay and may even improve for the step up to 2m 4f.  Trainer Roger Varian’s horses are going well so far this week.

Broome was a length further back in third in the Yorkshire Cup. I had fancied him for this after his win in the Dubai Gold Cup (2m) at Meydan, but Ryan Moore seems to prefer stablemate Emily Dickinson. She won a Listed race at Navan (1m6f) on her seasonal return but disappointed at Leopardstown last month. She has looked a thorough stayer, but it may depend what sort of mood she’s in: on a going day she’s a major contender. You have to respect Ryan’s choice, but Broome is a confirmed stayer and I think he’s overpriced. 

Subjectivist won the 2021 renewal but has only had two starts since suffering a serious tendon injury. He looked to have retained plenty of his old ability when a five-length 3rd of 15 to Broome at Meydan last time and, if he was back to his 2021 best, he would have an obvious chance. 

Courage Mon Ami made it a perfect three from three when winning a Goodwood handicap (1m 6f) on his appearance 26 days ago. On the evidence of his Goodwood success, he should stay 2m but whether he’ll stay 2m 4f is a an unknown, but looks worth a try. This is a huge step up in class.

Yibir was returning from a ten-month layoff when a respectable two length 4th of seven to Haskoy in Aston Park Stakes at Newbury last time. He shaped like the run was needed there and wants further than 1m4f these days. It is unclear if he will stay this marathon trip but he has the class to go close if he does.

Echoes In Rain is a smart hurdler who won a mares' Grade 1 hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last time. The seven-year-old showed she stays two miles on the flat when a neck 2nd of 30 to Waterville in the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh last September and, while she has plenty to find on Official Ratings, she’s trained by Willie Mullins so you can’t totally dismiss her.

Trueshan looks on the downgrade, and usually only runs with soft in the description; but he’s had wind surgery since finishing a seven length 4th of six to Coltrane in the Sagaro Stakes here last month.

Verdict: Coltrane and Eldar Eldarov are worthy market leaders and of the pair I prefer the claims of the latter. If 2021 winner Subjectivist was back to his best, then he would be tough to beat. Courage Mon Ami is open to any amount of progress but we must take a chance on his stamina as well as his class. BROOME might be overpriced due to Ryan Moore opting for stablemate Emily Dickinson and he’s my pick at double figure odds. 

Broome – 12/1 general

Royal Ascot 2023: Victor Value

 

5.00 Britannia Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

Ah, The Britannia Stakes… 33 unexposed 3 Year Olds, all still open to improvement run to run. Some will relish the occasion and relentless gallop we could see here, many will not. Nearly half the field won on their last start and you won’t be shocked to hear I’m relying on some help from my trends and trainer pointers…

 

The trends…

15/424, 60p (total winners, runners, placed horses)

  • 15/15 were top 2 at least once last three starts (were not: 067,4p)
  • 15/15 0-3 runs this season (4+ : 0/42, 2p)
  • 15/15 won by trainers with 1 or 2 runners in race (3+ : 0/71, 11p)
  • 14/15 had run over no further than 8.5f in career (had: 1/85, 10p)
  • 14/15 had not run at Ascot previously (had: 1/86, 8p)
  • 14/15 had won at least once last three starts (had not: 1/127, 13p)
  • 14/15 Top 5 last start (6th or lower: 1/98, 8p)
  • 14/15 did not run in a C1 race last start (did: 1/64, 6p)

 

Applying those pointers would have found 11 of the previous 15 winners (11/128 runners, 32p, +127 Betfair SP), although was 0/11 last year – that’s how it can go with this approach. If these trends bounce back this year, we’re looking at a long list of eight…

Quantum Impact, New Endeavour, Good Karma, Fort Vega, Naxos, Royal Cape, Highbank, Thunder Ball

 

The odds have been some guide in this, those sent off bigger than 28/1 SP 0/185,13p in the period. That could be something to keep an eye on.

An official rating of OR87-96 has been a sweet spot (excludes the top six in the weights this year) as has six or fewer career starts. Applying those pointers would leave five…

Quantum Impact, Good Karma, Fort Vega, Naxos, Royal Cape

 

The trainers…

Those to have won the race in the last fifteen renewals, with runners this year, are…

  • Quantum Impact (R Beckett)
  • New Endeavour (R Varian)
  • Royal Cape (H Morrison)
  • Carracci (A P O’Brien)

Of those trainers with runners in the race who look in particularly good form in the previous 14 days… Aidan O’Brien (6/19,11p, 75% RB - rivals beaten), Charlie Appleby (5/15,7p, 75% RB), Charlie Johnston (19/73, 31p, 57% RB), Jessie Harrington (6/25,10p, 62% RB), Dominic Ffrench Davis (3/9,3p, 57% RB)

That’s not to say other trainers are out of form of course, just those five yards are going particularly well.

In the last fifteen renewals this isn’t a race where the likes of Charlie Appleby (0/10,1p), Richard Hannon (0/20,2p) or John Gosden (0/25,5p)  have done overly well. Charlie Johnston has officially taken over the license from his dad Mark, and played an active role in recent years; but it isn’t a race they’ve done that well in either, now 0/34,3p. Maybe Charlie will have more luck under his own name. Of course, racing here is ultra-competitive and maybe one of those will get on the board this year, with nine runners between them.

 

To the horses…

In a race packed with unexposed 3YOs, including fifteeen last time out winners, I’ve stuck to my trends and trainer pointers and hope they work again. They may well do of course, and I’ve still picked the wrong ones from the long-list but my three against the field…

Quantum Impact – SP – the bookies are not taking many chances with Frankie’s rides this week but a few of his have drifted out nearer the off and it could be worth taking a chance on SP, if you don’t have ‘best odds guaranteed’. 6s could be getting on the short side in a race of this nature but the horse hits my profile and Ralph knows what’s required to win this race. Frankie is good friends with the owners and it will be significant he’s on.  He’s 8/21,12p +12 SP when riding for Ralph in the last year. There appears an even spread of pace on paper and it awaits to be seen if it’s best to be high or low. Hopefully there isn’t a track bias. The horse knows how to win and improved again stepped up to 1m on his last start. The 3rd there won a Class 2 on his next start so there’s substance to the form.

Royal Cape – 20/1 – another drawn low. Tom Marquand does well when riding for Hughie Morrison, 3/14,5p +18 SP in the last year, and the trainer knows what’s required around here. This horse was a bit keen at Haydock, got shuffled back and wasn’t in the best position when the tempo lifted. He ran on well under gentle encouragement, on ground he may have found plenty quick enough. The winner that day is fancied for the Group 3 Jersey Stakes on Saturday. He could well enjoy this sort of race set up, if patiently ridden and if settling early. Hopefully the occasion doesn’t get to him but he’s a big price for some fun interest.

Fort Vega – 22/1 – I thought it best to have one drawn high onside also, with pace that side also. Connections were thinking about the Irish 2000 Guineas and The Jersey Stakes for this horse, which suggests they think plenty of him and if they’re correct, he should be leaving behind a mark of OR89 in handicaps at some stage. Such Group level thinking may be fanciful but he’s got a progressive profile having won narrowly the last twice. He’s a powerful mover which should help in this sort of race and a more patient ride could also aid him, having hit the front plenty soon enough last time, but showing a great attitude to hold on. The third that day won his next start, adding some substance to the form. He’s a likeable horse who can hopefully outrun his odds, in another very tricky looking contest.

*Keep in mind almost all bookmakers are paying 1/4 1-2-3-4 in this race, with all profits on the race going to charity.

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5.35 Hampton Court Stakes (1m2f, Group 3, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

Another race where, in recent times, you’ve not had to delve too deeply to find the winner, although Claymore’s upsetting of the applecart last year, defeating the long odds-on Reach For The Moon in a small field, bucked the trend a little. There will be no such odds-on poke this year and it looks a much more competitive event, with a few with recent solid form taking on horses with a little to find on the figures, but for whom improvement may well be forthcoming. It makes for interesting punting. 

We’ll start with the form horses and on that score Caernarfon comes out as well as anything. I had her pegged as a soft ground horse but she showed that thinking all wrong with her third in the Oaks, where she improved enormously. She arguably shaped like the second-best horse in the race and was only run out of the silver very late on after trying to chase the winner down; and, for all that was a big step up in trip, I don’t see a drop back to ten furlongs here being a problem. She gets a useful 3lb fillies' sex allowance, and stall 10 is no disadvantage - the last time we had a 16-runner Hampton Court, the winner and second both came from double-figure draws. She holds strong claims and heads up my shortlist. 

Waipuro’s sixth in the Derby was a solid effort and afterwards trainer Ed Walker thought he didn’t stay and that a drop back to 10f would suit; but he had a pretty hard race there and might have left his effort for this behind. I like the horse and am happy to be proved wrong but I feel it may be another day for him. 

Frankie rides Epictetus for the Gosdens and he too has form in the bank, but their other runner, Torito, ridden by Benoit de la Sayette, holds better claims from my perspective. This fast-improving colt won the Lester Piggott Handicap at Epsom with a bit left in the tank, where runner-up Silver Sword had impressed me when scoring easily at Southwell the time before, so I rate the form strongly. He has a turn of foot, never a bad thing when Ascot is concerned, and looks smart. He’s second on my shortlist and will be in my placepots, too. 

If there’s one at a big price - and I can’t resist a big price, you all know that - Oviedo fits the bill nicely. Having had six starts already he’ll be ignored by most punters but I can put the line straight through two of those as they were on soft/heavy ground, which I don’t think he wants. Concentrate purely on his good and good to firm ground form and things look a bit brighter. He won his maiden at Doncaster in eyecatching fashion (the pair behind both next-time winners) before being thrown in against Chaldean in the Acomb, again shaping very well for third. He didn’t encounter good ground again until last time out at Redcar where, stepping up to a mile and a quarter, he easily took care of City Streak, himself a ready Chester winner the time before. That form leaves him short by a few pounds but a 40-1 price tag makes up for that, as does his wide draw in 16 which could be ideal for one that will be ridden prominently. Extra places are on offer and I won’t be able to resist a couple of quid each-way. 

 

6.10 Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

It was great to see this race return in 2020 after it was replaced on the card for five years and, it has to be said, this year’s renewal looks as difficult as ever! On Tuesday the rain not only had an effect on the ground but also seemingly on the draw. Prior to the morning downpour it was the stands’ side that had the highest going stick (higher means faster ground) but after the rain fell the far side had the highest reading. The action developed far side to middle in the straight course races so at the time of writing a lowish draw does seem to be preferred.

Wednesday’s racing will tell us more, especially the Queen Mary Stakes and the Royal Hunt Cup which are the biggest field straight course races on day two. It’s worth noting that the near side is yet to be explored and, according to Tuesday’s going stick readings, the near side was faster than the middle so you may wish to hold your bets until those races have been run in order to gain more evidence.

Pace will also play its part in determining where the best part of the course will be and the pace map, as usual, makes interesting reading.



It looks like all the pace is together in the centre stalls so they may end up coming up the middle in an arrowhead formation rather than splitting into multiple groups.

The market is heavily leaning towards the more unexposed runners and it’s easy to understand why. Of those at shorter prices I’d probably want to be against Biggles and Baradar (ground, assuming they don’t get thunderstorms on Thursday) and also Croupier (trip) whilst I think Unforgotten could land a race of this nature but he’s short enough all things considered now that he’s favourite.

Kingdom Come is closely matched with Unforgotten on their most recent outing and I think over this shorter trip Kingdom Come will reverse form with that rival, so I much prefer him at the prices given some bookies have Unforgotten at less than half the odds.

Northern Express is another one near the head of the betting that I quite like. This looks the ideal race for a smooth traveller like him and he was unlucky to be beaten by Croupier last time out at York so Northern Express should be the shorter of the pair here. Michael Dods’ runner looks an improved performer again this year and he ran an excellent 4th in the International Stakes 11 months ago off a 5lb lower mark.

There is no standout bet for me in this and to get involved in a race where half the field have valid claims I really want some big prices on my side.

There are several things NOT to like about Spirit Of The Light in this race. He’s well exposed, he has a poor win record for a horse of his quality and he ran very poorly in not one, but two course and distance races last season which is a big red flag. However, so many of his runs this season give him claims here. He ran some excellent races at Meydan in the early part of the year and then continued that form back here. His 2nd at Musselburgh in April on ground that was softer than ideal was brilliant form given the 4th and 5th have won since and the 1st, 3rd and 6th have also gone close. He holds Northern Express on that form.

He followed that up with an excellent 3rd at Newmarket where he finished on the heels of the subsequent 1st and 3rd in the Victoria Cup. On his most recent start he found 6f at York too sharp but he was making up eyecatching ground after meeting trouble in running and he again shaped extremely well. His price ranges from 14/1 to 25/1 at the time of writing and I’d be inclined to back him win only given he’s drawn very high, which could be a negative. Those poor course runs are also a factor in suggesting he shouldn’t be a place bet.

I’m even more keen on Accidental Agent, though, who is pretty much the outsider of the field at 50/1. The 2018 Queen Anne stakes winner is clearly on the decline but his rating may have declined more than his ability at this stage. He’s run some of his best races at Ascot and Newmarket: those venues have been the scene of his last five successes on turf. He looks to be at his best on straight courses and on decent ground, he’s won five from 22 on straight courses on good or better ground which is a fine record given he’s been highly tried in his time.

On last season’s form he has a decent chance in this. He was beaten 3½ lengths and 2½ lengths in similar course and distance handicaps last season off marks of 112 and 109 respectively and he’s now down to a mark of 101. He’s 16lbs better off with Northern Express for a 2¼ length beating in the International Stakes so has clear claims of finishing ahead of him. Even on his seasonal debut spin this year at Newmarket, on good ground off a 3lb higher mark, he has a decent chance given he wasn’t beaten far after being held up off one of the steadiest gallops you’ll ever see. Stall 8 might be just about perfect for him and he should be seen to best effect here on what will hopefully be decent ground.

So, to summarise, I’m looking to have an each way wager on Accidental Agent at around 50/1 and a smaller win only bet on Spirit Of Light at 20/1.

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That's a wrap on the third day of five for Royal Ascot 2023, and the third day of four here at geegeez.co.uk. It's tradition that readers are invited to rely on their own wiles for Saturday's card; but, before that, tune in again tomorrow for our 'home and away' previews of the Friday action.

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