Racing Insights, Wednesday 29/11/23
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 1.35 Kelso
- 2.00 Hereford
- 3.20 Kelso
- 3.55 Dundalk
My own personal settings for the TS report...
...have highlighted the following runners...
14-day form...
30-day form...
5-year course form...
...from which, I think I'll take a look at Venetia Williams' Paseo and his nine rivals in the 3.10 Hereford, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1f on good ground...
Hipop des Ongrais and My Bad Lucy both won last time out, but the latter (like Glance from Clover and Paseo) has been off the track for around seven months, whilst the former raced eight weeks ago and the rest of the field have all been turned out in the last 2-4 weeks.
Langley Hundred and Pilot Show were both runners-up last time out and most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings with the exceptions being Faustinovick and Cobra Commander whose run of defeats currently stand at eight races each.
All three returning from a long break are also up in class here, as are Pilot Show and bottom-weight Cobra Commander (that's not going to end break an 8-race cold spell!), but Coral drops down a grade here.
Six of this field have raced here before, but none have won yet but half of them (top-weight Tide Times, Hipop des Ongrais, Pilot Show, Glance from Clover & Cobra Commander) have at least won over a similar trip and it's number 2 on the racecard, Hipop des Ongrais who catches the eye first on Instant Expert...
...whilst 'local hero' and featured runner Paseo looks pretty unsuited by conditions, as do Faustinovick and Coral.
Langley Hundred has yet to win over fences, but has only tackled them once, when a runner-up in a field of nine at Ludlow almost three weeks ago, despite returning from a six-month break whilst My Bad Lucy has won two of his last three good ground 3m chases.
Tide Times is interesting at 10lbs below his last winning mark because his 0 from 5 record at Class 4 doesn't tell the full story. Yes, he's not in the best of form, having been pulled up in three of his last five, but he had finished 211621 in his previous six including 1121 at Class 3, so he's certainly not out of his depth here off a dangerous mark.
With so much red on the above graphic, we should consider the place stats from those races...
...which suggest the top of the card might be the place to focus upon for the places, along with My Bad Lucy based on his win stats.
He's likely to be the front runner here, if the field's last few outings are anything to go by...
...with featured runner Paseo closer to the back than the front, but the racecard does have him marked as a fast finisher. Although we don't really have enough data from past races to make an accurate call about the best racing position to win from, I think it's fairly clear that leaders tend to make the frame more often than not...
...which is another tick in My Bad Lucy's box.
Summary
My Bad Lucy was one of the standouts from Instant Expert and his early pace looks like it could be enough to carry him into the frame. He's currently 8/1 with both Bet365 & Hills (the only books open), but that probably fair and arguably worth a small E/W play.
Whether he's ready to win after seven months off is debatable of course and I think he's going to have to repel Hipop des Ongrais if he is to win. Hipop returned from a 163-day break to win pretty comfortably last time out beating Red Happy by almost 3 lengths with the next best a further 27 lengths back! Red Happy is 2 from 2 since, including a Class 3 win last time out, so I'd be picking Hipop des Ongrais as my winner here.
He's priced at 3/1 with Hills, which again looks fair to me and I'd expect him to beat My Bad Lucy. As for who joins them in the frame, Langley Hundred might be the one after an impressive chase debut recently; he might well come on for the experience, but 4/1 is no E/W price for me and if I was to look further down the odds list, the interesting option is the 14/1 about Tide Times. He's not in great form (as I discussed earlier), but is good enough to beat several of these here if he completes the race. I wouldn't be going too deep on him, but he's surely better than 14/1 against this bunch?