Racing Insights, Wednesday 29/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Kelso
  • 2.00 Hereford
  • 3.20 Kelso
  • 3.55 Dundalk

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

5-year course form...

...from which, I think I'll take a look at Venetia Williams' Paseo and his nine rivals in the 3.10 Hereford, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1f on good ground...

Hipop des Ongrais and My Bad Lucy both won last time out, but the latter (like Glance from Clover and Paseo) has been off the track for around seven months, whilst the former raced eight weeks ago and the rest of the field have all been turned out in the last 2-4 weeks.

Langley Hundred and Pilot Show were both runners-up last time out and most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings with the exceptions being Faustinovick and Cobra Commander whose run of defeats currently stand at eight races each.

All three returning from a long break are also up in class here, as are Pilot Show and bottom-weight Cobra Commander (that's not going to end break an 8-race cold spell!), but Coral drops down a grade here.

Six of this field have raced here before, but none have won yet but half of them (top-weight Tide Times, Hipop des Ongrais, Pilot Show, Glance from Clover & Cobra Commander) have at least won over a similar trip and it's number 2 on the racecard, Hipop des Ongrais who catches the eye first on Instant Expert...

...whilst 'local hero' and featured runner Paseo looks pretty unsuited by conditions, as do Faustinovick and Coral.

Langley Hundred has yet to win over fences, but has only tackled them once, when a runner-up in a field of nine at Ludlow almost three weeks ago, despite returning from a six-month break whilst My Bad Lucy has won two of his last three good ground 3m chases.

Tide Times is interesting at 10lbs below his last winning mark because his 0 from 5 record at Class 4 doesn't tell the full story. Yes, he's not in the best of form, having been pulled up in three of his last five, but he had finished 211621 in his previous six including 1121 at Class 3, so he's certainly not out of his depth here off a dangerous mark.

With so much red on the above graphic, we should consider the place stats from those races...

...which suggest the top of the card might be the place to focus upon for the places, along with My Bad Lucy based on his win stats.

He's likely to be the front runner here, if the field's last few outings are anything to go by...

...with featured runner Paseo closer to the back than the front, but the racecard does have him marked as a fast finisher. Although we don't really have enough data from past races to make an accurate call about the best racing position to win from, I think it's fairly clear that leaders tend to make the frame more often than not...

...which is another tick in My Bad Lucy's box.

Summary

My Bad Lucy was one of the standouts from Instant Expert and his early pace looks like it could be enough to carry him into the frame. He's currently 8/1 with both Bet365 & Hills (the only books open), but that probably fair and arguably worth a small E/W play.

Whether he's ready to win after seven months off is debatable of course and I think he's going to have to repel Hipop des Ongrais if he is to win. Hipop returned from a 163-day break to win pretty comfortably last time out beating Red Happy by almost 3 lengths with the next best a further 27 lengths back! Red Happy is 2 from 2 since, including a Class 3 win last time out, so I'd be picking Hipop des Ongrais as my winner here.

He's priced at 3/1 with Hills, which again looks fair to me and I'd expect him to beat My Bad Lucy. As for who joins them in the frame, Langley Hundred might be the one after an impressive chase debut recently; he might well come on for the experience, but 4/1 is no E/W price for me and if I was to look further down the odds list, the interesting option is the 14/1 about Tide Times. He's not in great form (as I discussed earlier), but is good enough to beat several of these here if he completes the race. I wouldn't be going too deep on him, but he's surely better than 14/1 against this bunch?

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/11/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 12.15 Sedgefield
  • 2.20 Sedgefield
  • 2.30 Tramore

Truth be told, the racing on offer in the UK for Tuesday looks dreadful at best, with the highest rated races being half a dozen Class 4 affairs including a pair of Novice races and a mares' maiden! Of the other three, two have just seven runners and as I do like to look for E/W value, I want more than seven runners, so we've landed on the 2.10 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys, where the trip is a left-handed 3m½f on heavy ground...

We've no LTO winners in the field, but the fast-finishing Steal My Sunshine has won two of his last three and only Mountain Leopard is winless in his last five, although Stratton Oakmount's run of form reading 1P12 came in Irish PTP contests. That said, it proves he stays and jumps and can carry 12 stones!

Ithaka's second run in a tongue-tie sees him drop down from Class 3 (16th of 18), whilst Glance from Clover (8th of 10) and Lelantos (7th of 12) both step up a class despite faring badly last time out and the former won't be helped by not having raced for 204 days.

Mind you, he's not the only one coming off a break, as Mountain Leopard and Our Bill's Aunt return from layoffs of 197 and 227 days respectively, with the other five runners all having had a run in the last month.

Lelantos is the sole runner to have either won here at Southwell or over a similar trip to this one and he has, in fact, won over course and distance, albeit just over two years ago off a mark 6lbs lower than today. That aside, Instant Expert suggests that none of the field have gone particularly well under today's expected conditions...

...where Lelantos probably shades it, although it's a fairly low bar and I think we're going to need to see the place data...

...where this quintet make most appeal on stats alone...

Three miles-plus on heavy ground might take some getting here at Southwell and from a small number of similar past races, we've found that leaders in 7-1o-runner contests of soft to heavy ground have often struggled to hang on to the lead...

...which, based on their most recent efforts, probably doesn't bode too well for the likes of Pure Theatre, Our Bill's Aunt and Mountain Leopard from the five I highlighted in Instant Expert...

...with those from course and distance winner Lelantos downwards looking better positioned here.

Summary

From the five runners I highlighted earlier, Stratton Oakmont and Lelantos make most appeal and I think both have a great chance of a top three finish. But, if I think Stratton Oakmont is going to be in the mix, I then need to consider Steal My Sunshine, who has a similar pace profile to Stratton and finished one place (4L) behind him last time out. Steal My Sunshine is 2lbs better off here and that should reduce the gap, making this pair more evenly matched.

It's not totally unfeasible that they're the first two home here and I think Stratton Oakmont should still just about hold Steal My Sunshine with Lelantos looking useful for a place. Elsewhere, I suspect Mountain Leopard being the biggest challenge to this trio.

No prices available at 3.15pm on Monday, but I'd be hoping for 11/2 or bigger about Stratton Oakmont and I doubt any of the other three will be long enough for me to go E/W, but you might.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 27/11/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 12.35 Ludlow
  • 3.05 Kempton

The first is a maiden hurdle, so let's try the 3.05 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m5f on good/good to soft ground...

THELASTHIGHKING finished 211 in his last three runs of the previous season and returned to action here at Kempton five weeks ago with a great run to finish second of seven despite being raised 5lbs and being off for 193 days. He could well strip fitter for the run, but does step up in trip and is up another 5lbs.

BEFORE MIDNIGHT hasn't won any of his eleven races over the last two years since winning by a short head at Ascot on November 2021 and was beaten by 39 lengths as 9th of 11 at Cheltenham last month, but does drop a class here.

GLOIRE D'ATHON has made the frame in 6 of 10 efforts over fences (5 wins) and his results in the 16 months from April '22 read 22111211, but was pulled up at Newbury earlier this month on his return from a 4-month break.

OUR JET looks like the first pick of the two Dan Skelton runners in the field and he was 3rd of 10 at Newbury earlier this month when returning from almost seven months off the track (had a wind op in that time). He was well beaten that day, though, coming home some 32 lengrths behind the winner of a well strung-out field. He now sports cheekpieces for the first time and could be of interest off this mark.

MULLINAREE makes a chase debut here 45 days after contesting a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Chepstow, where he was 5th of 7. Prior to that run, his career had been revitalised by wearing a hood and tongue tie during five successive wins over 2m3½f to 2m5½f on ground ranging from good to heavy, so going and trip shouldn't be his downfall here, but will he take to the bigger obstacles?

AMOOLA GOLD is the second of the Skelton duo and he receives weight all round. He's the sole LTO winner in the field and has won two of his last three, albeit both over hurdles wither side of finishing last of six (beaten by 58L) over fences at Haydock in March. His last chase win was a Listed contest at Ascot, but it was over two years ago and his form over fences since then reads 2643847736.

Instant Expert says that all five to have raced over fences have won at least once on good or good to soft ground and four of them have won at Class 3. Only three have been chasing at Kempton before and they're a collective 0 from 4, whilst Gloire D'Athon seems best suited to the trip...

Before Midnight has poor win records at both Class & trip, whilst Amoola Gold has a similar record over the distance. On base stats alone, Gloire D'Athon looks of interest. He normally runs in mid-division or slightly further forward, according to his last four outings and if all six run as they have been doing of late, he's likely to take third rank early doors...

...with chase debutant Mullinaree and Skelton second-stringer Amoola Gola the more likely front-runners. Should Gloire D'Athon want to make the frame or even go on to win, then his prominent running style might just bear fruit if this track/trip's results are anything to go by...

Summary

The Lasthighking is probably the best horse in the race and if he comes on for having had the run and reverts back to front-running like he did two starts ago, he'll be very difficult to beat. He is, however, as low as 13/8 and only as high as 15/8 and there's no guarantees that he won't be held up and he is up another 5lbs here, so whilst he's probably the one to beat, there's no value on the price.

Our Jet could go well if not left with too much to dao, but this isn't really a race I want to bet heavily on and I think for interest, I'll have a small E/W wager on Gloire D'Athon to outrun bet365's 16/1 price ticket. He'd not be an obvious winner, but his suitability for the test says he's too big at 16's.

Racing Insights, Saturday 25/11/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and 1-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 11.00 Lingfield
  • 11.30 Lingfield
  • 12.20 Ascot
  • 1.50 Haydock
  • 2.13 Huntingdon
  • 2.20 Haydock

Harry Derham & Paul O'Brien team up with Scrum Diddly in one of our 'free' races, but only three are set to go to post, so we'll look elsewhere for today's preview. We'll stick with the TJC Report, though and see how the Williams/Deutsch combo get on with Eleanor Bob up against the Honeyball/Twiston-Davies team's Credo in the 3.35 Haydock, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on soft ground; a race won by Venetia Williams' Fontaine Collonges last year and the race where Sam Twiston-Davies won on Crievehill back in 2019...

All of the field step up at least one class to run here with the two at the bottom of the weights, stepping up two levels. One of our featured runners, Credo, is the only one coming here off the back of a win, but Sidi Ismael, Docpickedme, Coconut Splash, Wasdell Dundalk and Bali Body were all in the frame, whilst only Coconut Splash and Cap du Nord are winless in seven or more outings (13 and 7 respectively to be precise and the former is 0 from 13 over fences).

Most of the field have been seen in the last four weeks, but top-weight Sidi Ismael hasn't raced for almost eight months, whilst our other featured runner, Eleanor Bob, hasn't raced since falling at Fontwell almost 21 months ago and both might well need the run.

We don't have much in the way of course/distance form with only Haute Estime having a Haydock win (2m3f hurdle) under his belt, whilst Docpickedme's 3m1f chase win at Southwell and Bali Body's 3m2f hurdles win at Hereford are the closest we've got to a distance success, but Instant Expert says that most of the field have won a chase in the 3m to 3m2f range and that most have won on good to soft or soft ground, so that could be promising...

...unlike Coconut Splash's dismal record of 12 defeats on this going. Cap du Nord's win record at Class 2 leaves plenty to be desired, as does his 2 from 22 over similar trips. I think it's fair to assume I won't be backing either of these two to win here, even if their place stats are a little better...

based on the place stats, I'm more drawn to the likes of Credo, Bali Body and Wasdell Dundalk, who are likely to make their run for home quite late, if their last four outings are anything to go by...

...whilst it looks like Eleanor Bob and Docpickedme might be left to their own devices to set the tempo of the contest, but that hasn't always been a successful tactic over fences here at Haydock...

Summary

I was drawn to Credo, Bali Body and Wasdell Dundalk at the Instant Expert phase of my analysis and the fact that all three like to come late is a bonus, so I think I'm going to focus on this trio. Credo is one of our two featured runners, she's the only LTO winner in the pack and her yard is going really well right now. The trainer/jockey combo have had a great year together and at 11/2 with Hills, we might have a nice little bet on our hands.

Wasdell Dundalk has been running really well for some time now, finishing 11122 over the last three months and although he's up another 2lbs here, he could make his presence felt and a 17/2 E/W bet might not be the worst decision you make this weekend, whilst Bali Body is still unexposed over fences, but has made the frame is all three efforts to date, finishing 312. He defied a 701-day absence to finish third at Wetherby three weeks ago and although up in class here, he does receive weight all round and would be another to consider from an E/W perspective at 10/1 with Bet365 who'll pay four places here.

Racing insights, Thursday 23/11/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 1.55 Thurles
  • 3.05 Thurles
  • 3.35 Newcastle
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

The last of that list is the highest-rated of the UK free races, so let's consider the 7.00 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

Our sole LTO winner, Sonnerie Power has left Roger Varian's yard in th elast five weeks and makes a debut for his new yard here, but is up two classes. Of his rivals, only Capital Theory was placed last time around and he's up one class here, as is bottom weight El Picador, who is one of five (along with Prydwen, Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent and Inuit) who have been beaten in at least their last seven races on the bounce.

Nolton Cross has been off the track the longest at 75 days, but that shouldn't really be an issue here and he's one of three (Prydwen and Capital Theory being the others) to have already won here at Wolverhampton, but only Zealandia had won over today's trip before.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, shows the field's success (or lack of) under similar conditions and we can show you Flat & A/W wins combined, as well as just the A/W data...

The obvious immediate standouts are Prydwen, Capital Theory and Nolton Cross, but they've hardly set the world on fire at Class 2 with just 2 combined wins from 31 efforts. Mind you, none of this field have particularly shone at this grade,but all bar Prydwen, Inuit, Sonnerie Power, El Picador and Oneforthegutter have won at Class 3.

When there's not much 'green' around on Instant Expert, I tend to then look at the place stats to see who might well run a decent race and be close to or in the frame, because one of those in the frame will go on to win! So here's the corresponding place data to those races above...

...where you could make a case for a handful of runners on Flat & A/W form, but the A/W data is considerably more clear-cut.

Somewhat unusually for a race of this distance, there is actually some semblance of a draw bias, although not huge with those drawn higher tending to do better from a win perspective...

...but this is somewhat tempered/conflicted by the PRB3 data which suggests the lower end of the draw tend to beat more rivals home...

...so maybe there's not a great deal to be made from the draw, I suppose it's down to how you interpret the data. What isn't in doubt, though, is the fact that front-runners really don't do very well over this type of contest...

...which, based on the evidence of the field's last few races, doesn't look too good for the likes of Capital Theory or Rhythmic Intent...

Summary

The two horses I like the most here, Chillingham and Capital Theory are the top two in the market at best prices of 9/2 and 5/1, but the former has little/no experience at trip/surface and the latter looks like failing to win by being the pace-maker. They're both more than capable of making the frame, but I'm not sure I want to put money on them and I think I'd like to focus on the others who made some appeal on Instant Expert ie Prydwen, Nolton Cross and Barenboim.

All three look like they could go well here and if I was pushed to nominate one as a potential winner, then it's be the 5/1 Nolton Cross who looks dangerous off his current mark. The other two might well need some luck in running, but at odds of around 9/1, they might well be of interest to E/W bettors.

PS No post tomorrow (Thursday for Friday) as I'm otherwise engaged, but back again with you on Friday.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Ffos Las
  • 2.30 Hexham
  • 3.50 Warwick
  • 5.45 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners of potential interest...

Both the 'free' list and the TS report have a Class 2 race amongst them, but the A/W option has more runners than the chase, so we're off to the 6.30 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W sprint handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

Chipstead is the only one of the field to have made the frame last time out, having finished third of eight on heavy ground at Windsor a month ago. He's also the only entire horse in the filed, since Clarendon House has been gelded since his last run twenty weeks ago, but we do have a 3 yr old filly in the shape of Glorious Angel.

Despite no LTO winner, only Clarendon House, May Sonic and Mondammej come here on a string of seven or more consecutive defeats (7, 7, and 27 to be precise) and the latter won't be helped by stepping up a class, as does Alligator Alley.

Bottom weight Strong Johnson actually steps up two classes, but the filly, Glorious Angel, ran in a Listed race at Newcastle recently after three successive runner-up finishes at 5f and she's now down in trip and class here.

We know that Clarendon House might need a run after twenty weeks off and Rocket Rodney's four month break might also pose problems, but the rest of the field have raced in the last month with Strong Johnson spotted at Newcastle last Friday!

All nine runners have won at least once over today's trip and both Alligator Alley and Mondammej are former course and distance winners. In fact, the latter won this race two years ago, but hasn't won any of twenty-seven races since, which is why Instant Expert below shows him racing off a mark 11lbs lower than his last win...

...where the two former C&D winners, Alligator Alley & Mondammej look best suited, but don't forget to factor in the latter's recent poor form. There's no data above for the two returning from a break, as both Clarendon House and Rocket Rodney are making A/W debuts here. The subsequent pace stats from those races above again paint Mondammej in a favourable light...

...and it's worth noting that although his last win was 2 days shy of 2 years ago, his 2-year place stats look like this...

...suggesting that whilst he'd be a surprising winner, he could well make the frame. His cause, however, won't be helped by being drawn in stall 8...

...over a course and distance where the first five stalls seem to be the place to be...

That said, a wide draw isn't necessarily a lost cause, if he can get out quickly...

...and this is backed up by our pace/draw heat map. which also offers a little surprise with the draw...

Sadly for Mondammej, that's where the good news quickly starts and finishes, as his last four outings suggest that he's going to be well down the pecking order for early pace...

...and that we should be looking at the top end of this chart for our 'most likelys' and if we put them in draw order, look at their last three runs and place them onto the heat map, we get...

...with the feeling that Chipstead gets to the bend first followed by Glorious Angel with Alligator Alley hoping the bend keeps him ahead of Clarendon House.

Summary

Based on the pace/draw situation, the two I like most here are Chipstead and Glorious Angel with Alligator Alley looking a danger to them. The latter was the pick of the pack on Instant Expert, too, so these are my shortlisted three for the frame.

Had this not been Chipstead's tapeta debut, then I'd have been backing him at 13/2 (Hills, only price on offer at 4.15pm) and that's a little shorter than I normally place E/W bets at, but your cutoff might be different. I think he holds the filly, Glorious Angel, at bay but she's not a bad bet for the places and at 7/1, you could be tempted there too.

As for Alligator Alley, he ran better than the bare result suggested at Newcastle recently, he's a former course and distance winner and has won four of his last seven on tapeta making him my pick here. his 4/1 ticket isn't massively generous, but probably worth taking.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/11/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with all three at least worth a second glance and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.55 Limerick
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton
  • 6.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford
  • 8.15 Wolverhampton

...and whilst I do normally try to 'marry up' the free feature with the free racecards, Alafdhal's race looks a bit of a stinker if truth be told, but the one before it looks better as it's as highly-rated a contest as you'll find in the UK on Tuesday. It is, of course, the 6.30 Chelmsford, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Baldomero has made the frame in his last two and in four of five despite not winning, whilst all bar bottom-weight Night On Earth (10 successive defeats) of his rivals have managed to win at least one of their last six.

Most of the field are dropping in class, as only Probe, Celsius and Night On Earth raced (unplaced) at Class 3 last time around, the others all dropp a class from Class 2, except Zaman Jemil who ran in a Listed race at Redcar. That was 37 days ago and most of the field have raced in the last two to ten weeks, but Celsius could be excused for needing a run after a six-month absence.

Probe has won over this trip at Newmarket and Wolverhampton with Zaman Jemil also having two wins at 6f; Newcastle & Thirsk, whilst Justcallmepete and Above are both course and distance winners with former also successful at Lingfield and Southwell over 6f on the A/W, as seen on Instant Expert...

...where Justcallmepete looks to be the best suited and probable market leader Baldomero seems to be all at sea. Mind you, he has only won 2 of 30 career starts (2/20 on the A/W), so I'm hoping his place stats paint him in a better light...

...and indeed they do. That said, on basic percentage terms he's only fourth on going, third on class and fourth on trip and I think Justcallmepete still looks better suited to these expected conditions. This pair will emerge from opposite ends of the stalls with our Draw Analyser suggesting that Baldomero is at the better end of the draw...

That doesn't mean that Justcallmepete can't/won't win, of course. He might well be one of the 9.38% of those drawn higher than 7 who go on to win here and if he has the right pace profile to win, then he'll have every chance. The Pace Analyser for those nearly-300 races above won't come as a surprise to many of you...

...nor, I suppose, will this pace/draw heat map...

So, the question is, who will take the races by the horns and go for it from the off? Well, if we look at this field's most recent efforts, you've have to say that Baldomero is far more likley to be up with the pace than Justcallmepete...

...and the resulting pace draw heat map...

...also says Baldomero.

Summary

Baldomero is probably the best runner in the race, he scored well on the Instant Expert place stats, is ideally drawn and seems to have the right pace profile for the contest and that's probably why he's the current (Monday 3.25pm) 11/4 favourite, but I can't be backing him at that price. Yes, he's consistent with 11 top-3 finishes from his last 20 outings, but he's a consistent loser, too, having failed to win any of those twenty races. I know that all runs come to an end at some point, but 11/4 about a horse on a 20-race losing streak, a 1 from 12 record on standard A/W, 0 from 6 at Class 3 and the same over 6f just doesn't scream value to me. I know he was only beaten by a short head last time out, but he's been raised 2lbs for that defeat, so I'll leave him.

Justcallmepete makes more sense to me at 9/2 which is probably a fair price. Yes, he's going to need a bit of luck overcoming pace and draw stats, but he has two good runs (a win and a runner-up) here over course and distance, so he knows what this place is all about and I'd rather back him than the fav.

Of the rest Zaman Jemil is interesting, a win and two places from his last five, he makes a polytrack debut here down in both class and trip and boasting a 1 from 1 record on the A/W so far, might well be involved in the shake-up, especially if towed along by Baldomero early doors.

Racing Insights, Monday 20/11/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 12.30 Plumpton
  • 3.20 Plumpton
  • 4.30 Kempton
  • 6.00 Kempton

The 'best' of those races would appear to be the 3.20 Plumpton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m1f on good to soft/soft ground...

NO RISK WITH LOU won on his hurdles debut a year ago and then also won on his chase debut at Huntingdon last time out, making virtually all on his way to a 7-lengfth success five weeks ago. Up 8lbs for the win, but should go well again.

RED WINDSOR made the frame in three (won once) of his five hurdles outings, but looked like he needed the run when last of 4 (85 lengths adrift) on chasing debut six weeks ago. He jumped well enough but just seemed to run out of steam.

GITCHE GUMEE won a bumper on debut in March '22 and then won next time out on hurdles debut some seven months later. Aside from a fall at Southwell two starts ago, has hurdled well in five subsequent runs and now makes a chasing & handicap debut seven months after his last outing.

KOTMASK started his career with back to back wins over hurdles (one at Class 2) and last season's hurdle form read 4322. Made a chasing debut at Kempton four weeks ago and defied a seven month layoff to finish third, beaten by less than seven lengths and should improve for the experience and for having had a run.

BONARC has yet to make the frame in five efforts over fences and has lost his last ten races in total since a win at Kilbeggan 18 months ago. His last run run saw him finish last of four at Sligo, some 47 lengths adrift and others look better placed here.

AVILES has been a runner-up in all five UK starts to date, including today (Sunday) at Fontwell, which puts his participation here in doubt, but having only gone down by a nose on chasing debut today, could be dangerous off a lowly mark of just 104.

All bar Aviles (obviously) and Red Windsor have scored over this type of trip in the UK, but we've no former course winners, according to Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Bonarc might well be all at sea on the going and at this grade, whilst his record at the trip is no better, so I'm happy to rule him out of contention right away. Elsewhere, we've admittedly not much data to work with, but Kotmask does at least seem like he'll relish the softness of the turf and that thought is backed up by his place data...

...which also highlights Aviles' continued door-knocking.

Pace is Monday's free feature and a quick click of the PACE tab for this race brings us to a screen like this...

...which suggests that Red Windsor will set the pace and Bonarc will be held up and if we consult our Pace Analyser for similar past races...

...we see that those racing further forward fare best, but leaders find themselves prone to being picked up by the stalking prominent runner late on. This looks better news for Aviles & No Risk With Lou than the others.

Summary

I don't like Bonarc at all, Gitche Gumme makes a handicap/chasing debut after a long layoff and pace-setter Red Windsor has a tendency to fade late on, so I'm against these three.

No Risk With Lou was very impressive on chase debut last time out and there's probably more to come from him, he fits the pace profile well and should put a decent effort in here, even if Instant Expert is against him. Kotmask was the pick on Instant Expert and was in good hurdling form last season. He has had the benefit of a recent pipe-opener over fences and should go well again, but the pace stats are against him, whilst Aviles is ultra-consistent (five runner-up finishes on the bonce) but always finds one too good for him.

None of the trip are a shoo-in, but 9/4 fav No Risk With Lou probably shades it based on his winning run last time out with little to separate the other pair, providing Aviles runs, that is.

Racing Insights, Saturday 18/11/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.35 Cheltenham
  • 1.19 Wetherby
  • 2.01 Lingfield
  • 2.12 Uttoxeter
  • 2.29 Wetherby
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton

And with the weather in mind, I'm playing it relatively safe by heading for the A/W (whilst my wife goes to Uttoxeter!) and 2.01 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Top weight Greatgadian is our sole LTO winner, but Regheeb is two from three in the UK and Udaberri was a runner-up 16 days ago. Udaberri, however, is one of just two (along with Throne Hall) without a win in seven or more outings and he's up two classes here which probably won't help to improve his 0/12 record on the A/W!

Top-weight and LTO winner Greatgadian is up one class, as is Citizen General but Storm Catcher, Forca Timao and Thundering all drop down from Class 2. This will be Regheeb's second run in a handicap and his first outing since being gelded, whilst Expressionless wears cheekpieces for the second time.

Thundering was last seen seven weeks ago and Citizen General has had 12 weeks off, but the rest of the pack have raced in the past five weeks with five of them seen this month already.

Despite his inexperience, Regheeb has already won over course and distance and Citizen General won here over 1m5f back in May, whilst Greatgadian, Storm Catcher, Throne Hall and Thundering have all won over similar trips elsewhere as documented by Instant Expert which suggests the lower half of the draw is stronger or better suited than the higher half...

The only cause for concern above might be the apparent 13lbs difference between Citizen General's mark of 88 as opposed to his victory off 75 here in May, but he has since won off 80 on turf, so whilst he still needs a career best effort to win here, the gulf isn't quite as large. The subsequent place stats make Udaberri's form a little more appealing, but I'm already doubting his chances here...

As you've probably guessed, Expressionless makes an A/W debut after eight mainly soft/heavy ground outings on turf where he has two wins and a place after landing back to back soft ground 1m½f contests in April this year.

Our Draw Analyser says that there shouldn't be too much of a bias at play here, but if any stall are more favourable than others, then the first four stalls are the place to be and with the lower draws having the best of it from Instant Expert, that might be the place to focus upon...

And whilst there might no be much in the draw, that's certainly not the case with pace/tempo/tactics, as our Pace Analyser clearly suggests that those racing prominently or leading fare best here...

...with the low drawn prominent/leading runners enjoying the most success...

If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent races...

...you'd suspect the early pace is going to come from one or more of Throne Hall, Forca Timao, Regheeb or Citizen General and they take their places on the heat map as follows...

...assuming, of course, they run how they have tended to of late.

From the heat map alone, Regheeb is the one who interests me most, especially if he allows Throne hall to do the running and he just sits in behind.

Summary

I think I want to be amongst those drawn lowest and they have the best Instant Expert scores and with pace in mind, the one I'm looking at is Regheeb at 7/2 (Bet365). He's drawn low, has the ideal pace profile, he's lightly raced but has won 2 of his 3 UK starts, including a course and distance success at this grade back in September.

Greatgadian is the 9/4 or 5/2 fav here and he ticks plenty of boxes, but his lack of early pace might cost him the race. This lack of pace throughout the field might lead to an unfancied runner nicking some of the place money and if that happens, then the 11/1 Forca Timao might well be able to take advantage from out wide.

Racing Insights, Friday 17/11/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers for Friday...

...plus I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races if needed...

  • 12.50 Wexford
  • 3.05 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 4.50 Newcastle
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.45 Dundalk

...but I think I'll stick with my H4C report qualifiers and have a look at Pockley and the 3.40 Newcastle, an 11-runner, 3yo+ A/W sprint handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Strong Johnson, Dickieburd and featured runner Pockely all come here off the back of a recent (7-10 days) win, whilst Bergerac, Treacherous and Ramon Di Loria were all placed on their last outings.

Bergerac, Venturous, Treacherous and Ramon di Loria are all winless in at least seven races (9, 19, 10 and 13 respectively) to be precise and the latter surely won't be helped by stepping up a class. Bergerac does, at least, drop down a class, as do Brooklyn Nine Nine and Be Proud.

Eight of the field have raced in the last fortnight or so and even Be Proud, Princess Karine (sole filly in the race), Venturous and Brooklyn Nine Nine shouldn't be rusty after short breaks of 20, 48, 59 and 68 days either.

Bergerac is the only runner yet to win at either track or trip with only Brooklyn Nine Nine and Treacherous of his rivals still seeking a first win at 5f. They have both, however, already won here at Newcastle over 6f, as has Dickieburd. Strong Johnson, Venturous (won this race in 2020), Be Proud, Ramon di Loria and featured runner Pockley have all scored over course and distance.

Instant Expert suggests that bottom weight Ramon di Loria might well be the least best suited to the conditions here...

...and his won record at going/course/trip are a concern, as are Treacherous' numbers on standard going and Be Proud's return at Class 4 in terms of wins. From the above, featured horse Pockley (as expected) and top weight Strong Johnson probably make most appeal on those numbers, but let's see if the place stats suggest any have been unlucky...

Well, from a place perspective, bottom weight Ramon di Loria certainly looks a different proposition and in draw order, these are the ones that make most appeal from the place data...

...and our draw analyser says that the first three of those seven might find it hardest to win here based on previous races...

That said, I'm always a little wary of leaning too heavily on past draw data for straight sprint, where there really shouldn't be much in it and it really should be fastest runner wins and this is backed up to some extent by the pace analysis of those 90-odd races above...

If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...we see that there aren't many happy to set the pace, but that Strong Johnson and Princess Karine look like being able to overcome a seemingly adverse low draw by getting away sharply.

Summary

I think I want to be focusing on the seven runners highlighted by the place data on Instant Expert and I'm going to stick my neck out and say I'm more interested in pace than I am in the draw here and I'm going to put Strong Johnson and Princess Karine forward as my main fancies for this one. They're both in good form, but Strong Johnson looks in better nick and beat Princess Karine on her last run. Only Bet365 have priced this up as of 3.00pm and they go 6/1 and 7/1 respectively and I'd take them to finish in that order. I might split stakes.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 16/11/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.30 Market Rasen
  • 1.15 Taunton
  • 3.10 Sedgefield
  • 3.15 Punchestown

Aside from a 5-runner Listed race at Market Rasen, there's nothing higher than a Class 4 contest in the UK on Thursday, so with that in mind, I'm going to swerve the free races and potential weather disruptions and head down to Essex for the 6.00 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

Top weight Sir Oliver is our only LTO winner in the field having won a 12-runner handicap over this trip at Lingfield nine days ago beating the re-opposing Riot (5th) and Jilly Cooper (12th) by 1.15 and 42 lengths respectively. Riot is however 5lbs better off with the winner today. Consistent placer Revolutionise, Society Lion and Englebert all made the frame last time around and G'daay, Society Lion, Eden Storm, Hot Chesnut and Engelbert have all won inside their last six outings.

The bottom three on the card are our class movers with Hot Chesnut down a level and Engelbert & Spacer up from Class 5 with the latter now blinkered for the first time, whilst Maxi Boy now makes a debut in a visor. Most of the filed have had a recent run, but Society Lion has had ten weeks off and Revolutionise races for the first time since a narrow course and distance defeat over seven months ago.

Maxi Boy is the only runner in the field yet to win over this trip and five (Sir Oliver, Revolutionise, G'daay, Riot & Hot Chesnut) have scored over track and trip, as seen here on Instant Expert...

...which although not painting too impressive a picture, does suggest the likes of Sir Oliver and Revolutionise might go well here. Riot, Little Boy Blue and Spacer are short on standard going wins, G'daay and Little boy Blue have poor Class 4 records on the A/W and Sir Oliver has struggled to get ahead here at Chelmsford in the past, whilst Hot Chesnut has hardly set the world on fire at this trip.

With not much winning form/green boxes above, it might prove prudent to look at the place stats to at least see who might be in the mix here...

...from which, I think I want to focus more on the runners in stalls 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 & 10...

...over a course and distance that our Draw Analyser suggests that there's very little to be gained from any particular stall...

On bare stats from 60+ races, it looks like high draws win more often, but low draws make the frame more consistently, so I'd be inclined to suggest the draw here, isn't as influential as race tactics aka pace might be and if we look at those races above through the Pace Analyser, we get a familiar Chelmsford picture...

...where prominent runners do well, but upfront is really the place to be, which should suit Maxi Boy, Sir Oliver and Revolutionise more than the other three on my whittled down version of Instant Expert...

...if they run like they normally do, of course!

Summary

If after discarding half of the field after the Instant Expert analysis, I'm left with the six runners above, then I'm more drawn to the first three named but Maxi Boy hasn't won any of his last seventeen and will need his first-time visor to perk him up a little. I'm not suggesting he can't/won't make the frame, but early odds (Only Hills showing prices at 2.30pm Wednesday) of 10/1 aren't doing it for me. Had he been 16's or bigger, I might have been tempted with a couple of quid.

This leaves me with Sir Oliver & Revolutionise and I suspect they'll finish in that order, but that suits me fine with a 5/1 win bet and a 17/2 E/W option at the time of writing.

Riot is the current 7/2 favourite and that sort of makes sense now that he's 5lbs better off with Sir Oliver with only just over a length to make up, but he tends to be held up and might well leave himself with too much to do here to win, but could well make the frame and even split my two picks.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Bangor
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 5.50 Newcastle
  • 7.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following quartet of runners for me to consider...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

And from all the races above, I'm going to look at the 7.30 Kempton, as it's on the free list and has a runner from the daily free feature in the shape of James Fanshawe's Royal Scandal. The race itself is a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

Cardano is the only LTO winner in this field, but Capital Theory, Enthrallment and Haku all had top three finishes. Most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings, but Graphite, Enthrallment and Kenzai Warrior have lost their last 9, 8 and 15 races respectively.

The latter's cause won't be helped by stepping up a class here, as do Enthrallment and Haku with Cardano and Buxted Too both up two grades, whilst Savvy Knight, Batemans Bay, Capital Theory and Geremia all drop down a level with Batemans Bay running in a handicap for just the second time, as does Adrian; Kenzai Warrior wears cheekpieces for the second time.

Adrian, Cardano, Graphite, Dark Moon Rising and Geremia have all won over this trip elsewhere, whilst the latter has scored here over two miles. Kenzai Warrior has also won here and that was over a mile, whilst Savvy Knight, Buxted Too, Royal Scandal and Haku are all former course and distance winners, as highlighted by Instant Expert...

...where featured runner Royal Scandal is the immediate eyecatcher, albeit of a small sample size. Buxted Too and Haku have good records at this type of trip, but Savvy Knight and Capital Theory share just 1 win from 14 attempts, however the latter has made the frame in 5 of his 7 defeats...

...and he (Capital Theory) looks to be a strong contender for the frame on the above evidence, as do Geremia and Haku. This trio will set off from opposite ends of the stalls, though with Capital Theory drawn in 1 and the other pair out in 9 & 11 but our Draw Analyser says that the draw shouldn't be the reason for a horse losing this race...

...with any advantage gained only being slight. This is pretty logical, I'd have thought with a mile and a half to run, the draw really shouldn't be an issue. The key here at Kempton over this type of trip is not to leave yourself too much to do, as the Pace Analyser says that hold-up horses fare worse than any others...

...which, based on the field's last three outings doesn't represent great news for the likes of Graphite, Dark Moon Rising, Batemans Bay and Geremia...

...but it looks like Capital Theory and Adrian will be amongst the early pacemakers.

Royal Scandal, Capital Theory, Geremia and Haku were the ones that stood out for me from Instant Expert, but only Capital Theory and Haku look like having decent enough pace profiles to do well here from that quartet. I'd add Adrian, Savvy Knight and Enthrallment into the mix on pace too, to give me a shortlist of five to consider here.

Summary

I've left myself with five to look at and two of them : Capital Theory (5/1), Royal Scandal (6/1) and Savvy Knight (13/2) are in the trio at the top end of the market, along with our featured runner. Of the three, I like Capital Theory the best, but I think 5/1 is too short here and the other pair aren't long enough for my liingto back E/W.

So, that brings me to Enthrallment, Haku and Adrian and of this trio, it's Enthrallment who interests me most as an E/W option at 17/2 with Hills who pay four places. He was a runner-up last time out beaten by less than a length but well clear of the pack and a similar run puts him in the frame again.

Adrian is a rank outsider with plenty to prove, but Haku could go well here. A former course and distance winner who looks in decent nick and was third over C&D off a pound higher last time out. He's currently available at 10/1 with Hills (4 places) and could also be a reasonable E/W bet.

Racing Insights, Thursday 09/11/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.50 Ludlow
  • 1.05 Clonmel
  • 3.10 Ludlow
  • 3.45 Ludlow
  • 3.55 Sedgefield

Those races above don't really grab my attention, so I'm going to have a look at the day's highest rated handicap hurdle in the UK, the 2.25 Newbury, a 12-runner, Class 2 affair over a left-handed 3m 52yds (+138 yds) on good to soft/soft ground...

Emitom, Young Butler and bottom-weight Equinus all won last time out, whilst Hititi has won his last three with Fifty Ball the only one without a 'recent' win, having lost eight on the bounce.

LTO winners Hititi, Emitom and Equinus are all up one class here, as are Zanza, Only the Bold and regular runner-up Martha Brae whilst another LTO winner Young Butler is up two classes for his yard debut for Paul O'Brien.

Conversely Our Power, Dolphin Square and Grumpy Charley all drop down from Class 1 action. Equinus and Fifty Ball last ran 11 and 33 days ago respectively, but the rest of the field have been off the track for six to nine months, during which time Only The Bold had wind surgery.

Only four of these (Bold Endeavour, Grumpy Charley, Martha Brae and Fifty Ball) have yet to win over a similar trip, whilst Dolphin Square and Emitom have won over course and distance. Our Power (2m1f hurdle), Zanza (2m½f, 2m6½f & 2m7½f chases) and Grumpy Charley (2m6½f & 3m2½f chases) are also former Newbury winners, as shown below on Instant Expert...

That's overall NH form, of course, so we now need to remove the chasing stats from the above, as follows...

...where only Fifty Ball has struggled to win with these underfoot conditions. We're a bit shy on Class 2 experience/wins, but Dolphin Square's 3 from 8 is decent enough. Zanza and Emitom are the pick on course hurdle wins, whilst the field's record at 3m+ looks a bit patchy in the main with Martha Brae's 1 from 11 looking particularly poor, although as you can see below, she did make the frame in four of her ten defeats...

From the above, Dolphin Square looks like being a candidate for an E/W bet with a solid line of green off a decent sample size of races and off a mark 4lbs lower than his last win back in December. He's also had 10 wins and 5 places from the 19 starts under today's jockey. If he runs like he has in his last four races and the rest of the field do the same, then I'd expect him to be quite prominent in the upper half of the field and he did win five races ago from a prominent position...

Bold Endeavour looks like being the one to set the tempo here, with likely favourite Equinus towards the rear along with Zanza and Young Butler, but our Pace Analyser of past similar races suggests that the back of the field might not be the place to run from...

Summary

Equinus is the current fav at a generally available 15/8, although Bet365 do offer 9/4. I think this is a bit skinny about a horse who is likely to have to pass most of the field late on. That said, he's unexposed at the trip and won well at Aintree last time out. He gets weight all round and isn't penalised for his LTO win and might well be the one to beat, but I can't be backing him at 15/8.

I'm not sure who'd beat him, though, if I'm honest. Front runner Bold Endeavour might try to put enough distance between himself and the fav, but he's carrying 12-0 which will be tough here and 13/2 isn't E/W territory for me. Sadly the same applies to 7/1 shot Hititi, who also comes here in great form and has a good pace profile for this race. he'd need a career best to win, but I think he's in with a great shout of making the frame (4 places) and I'd certainly be interested at 8's or bigger.

All of which brings me back to prolific placer Dolphin Square. He too has a good pace profile for this contest, his IE place stats are the best on offer and he gets on really well with today's jockey.

He's 4lbs below his last win and at 10/1 (generally), he's my E/W fancy, whilst at bigger (18's) odds, Our Power is an interest as he switches back to hurdles. He went into this year's Grand National off the back of consecutive Class 1 handicap chase wins over 3m and ran really well for a long way in the national before finishing 11th. he runs off 4lbs lower here and the drop in trip and easier jumping might just be his ticket.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.05 Musselburgh
  • 2.15 Musselburgh
  • 3.10 Dundalk
  • 4.25 Chepstow
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following pair of runners for me to consider...

30-day form...

Course 1-year form...

The TS report races and the free list both include a Class 2 contest, which is as good as it gets in the UK this Wednesday and we're going to focus on the race featuring James Fanshawe's 6 yr old gelding Fresh, as his race is easily the most valuable of the day at over £41k to the winner. The race, of course, is the 7.00 Kempton, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

Clearpoint was the only one of these to win last time out, but he's up two classes here. And although beaten on their latest outings, Prop Forward, Fivethousandtoone, Aramis Grey and Baldomero all had top-three finishes, but the latter is now up a class, as are the fast-finishing May Sonic, yard debutant Danger Alert, Justcallmepete, Watchya and Admiral D.

Fresh, May Sonic, Watchya, Baldomero and Admiral D are all without a win in at least seven races, having actually lost 9, 7, 7, 19 & 16 respectively on the bounce! Dubai Station is another making a yard debut here and featured horse Fresh will wear cheekpieces for the first time.

Four of this field raced just a week ago here over this course and distance at a class lower than this and here's how they finished in 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th in a 9-runner field won by another James Fanshawe horse...

Four others have raced in the last 23-39 days, but the final four may well need the run, as Dubai Station & Danger Alert return from 4 month breaks; Prop Forward has been off for six months and it's nine months since Fivethousandtoone was last seen

Baldomero is the only runner in the field yet to score over 6f, but he has at least won here at Kempton, albeit 20 races ago when landing a Class 2, 1m2f handicap just over 20 months ago. Six others have also been successful at this track with Prop Forward, Fresh, May Sonic, Danger Alert, Aramis Grey and Clearpoint all former course and distance winners and those wins are included in the following data from Instant Expert...

...where I have immediate concerns about Baldomero (going/class), Aramis Grey (class) and Fresh (trip). Fresh is also showing at 18lbs higher than his last A/W win, which would be a major issue, but that is tempered somewhat by the fact that his last win was off 91 on the Flat at Ascot, he's still 6lbs above that, of course and not in the best of form, but 6lbs is far better than 18lbs.

Despite his poor return at Class 2 on the A/W, Aramis Grey looks like being one of the best suited here behind May Sonic and the obvious pick, Prop Forward. His 1 from 8 at this grade might well contain a number of near misses, so let's check the place stats...

...which say he has made the frame in six of his seven Class 2 defeats and he's a real contender now. Prop Forward's 100% record across the line is impressive and both Fivethousandtoone and Baldomero have great numbers, but May Sonic now looks like a win or bust merchant.

Our Draw Analyser suggests a distinctive advantage to being placed in the lowest third of the draw for both win and place perspectives...

...which will be welcomed by connections of Justcallmepete, Dubai Station, May Sonic and Admiral D, but as we all know by now, getting a 'plum' draw is only half of the battle in these sprint contests and we really shouldn't underplay the pace/tactics side of the equation. Using those same 220+ races as above, our Pace Analyser says that as with many sprints, pace wins the race with leaders winning/placing far more often (percentage-wise) than the rest of the field...

In fact, the 290 leaders make up just 11.54% of the total runners, but account for 27.68% of the winners and 20.24% of the placer, but the interesting thing is that almost 46% of leaders who make the frame then go on to win. If we then look at how this field have raced in their three most recent outings, then it looks like another tick in the box for Instant Expert stand-out Prop Forward...

...and if we arrange the field into draw order and impose them onto the pace/draw heatmap...

...I'd suggest that Prop Forward beats Justcallmepete, Dubai Station, May Sonic and Admiral D to the bend and will get to cut across the apex and lead the way home with the rail at this disposal.

Summary

After looking at Instant Expert and the pace/draw combinations, it's difficult to envisage Prop Forward not being the one to beat. His A/W record reads 1131 with the last two being over this class, course and distance and whilst he's not been seen for six months, it's worth noting those last two A/W runs (over class, C&D) saw him third of eleven after 213 days off and he then won a 12-runner affair 251 days later on his next appearance, so this lay-off doesn't worry me.

We're not getting rich or upsetting the applecart by backing a 10/3 (Hills at 4.50pm) favourite, but Prop Forward looks the most likely to succeed in my eyes.

I like the look of Aramis Grey, but he's going to have to fly late on to get involved from the back, so if I was to look for a longer-priced E/W punt, then I think that the fast finishing May Sonic might be the one at 12/1 (Bet365, 4 places), whilst you could also make cases for both Baldomero (11/1 PP, 4 places) and Watchya (20/1 PP, 4 places) if they get away smartly from wider draws, as they should be able to cut across the runners in stalls 5 to 8 to give chase to Prop Forward.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/11/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where a few would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.12 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Chelmsford
  • 3.58 Fairyhouse
  • 4.40 Newcastle
  • 6.25 Newcastle

There are two Class 1 races on Tuesday and one of them is on our list of free races, so we're heading off for the 1.12 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ Fillies and Mares Listed contest over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Al Agaila won last time out and Coco Jamboo has won her last two, but both step up two classes here. Potapova, Zellie, Good Gracious and Pastiche were all runners-up last time around, but the last of that quartet is now up three classes, whilst Julia Augusta and Taarabb are both up one level despite failing to make the frame at Class 2.

Our card doesn't have the benefit of showing Zellie's French form which read 1112212 before her fourth place in last year's 1000 Guineas, so she's not the one with the longest losing run on display here, that would be Potapova, Queen Aminatu and Tarrabb, who all won seven races ago.

It's not a handicap contest, so all runners carry 9-2 with a 2lb allowance for the five 3yo's in the race, making Zellie and Nigiri joint best off at the weights with Coco Jamboo rated some 15lbs worse and I suspect the top four in the official ratings would be a useful starting point for someone who didn't want to analyse the full field.

Most of the field have raced inside the last 40 days and Tarrabb ran in early September, but Julia Augusta and Zellie have been off for six months, so their fitness might have to be taken on trust.

All bar Coco Jamboo, Pastiche and Zouky have already won over a mile, but only two have won here at Lingfield before (mind you, only three have run here!). Al Agaila has finished 311 in three starts here, winning twice over 1m2f after finishing third over this trip, whilst Queen Animatu's record here reads 113 with a win and a place over 7f and a win in this very race last year, making her the sole course and distance winner. For the sake of tying loose ends up, the other Lingfield run by this field saw Zouki finish last of five back in March after a 6-month break.

All this course/distance form is shown in Instant Expert, of course, along with results on standard going and Class 1 action...

...where Al Agaila and Queen Aminatu look the ones setting the standard. In addition to the above, three of these have raced at Class 2 on the A/W, with Al Agaila winning two of three, Queen Animatu winning her only attempt and Coco Jamboo finishing 3rd of 7 at Wolverhampton in March.

Our Draw Analyser suggests that there's no real advantage to a high or low draw, based on the evidence of almost 200 past similar races...

...but the Pace Analyser says that the further forward you can race, the greater the chance of winning or making the frame, based on that same set of races...

...and this is how the field have approached their last two races...

Summary

I suggested that those people wanting to avoid a full race analysis might want to focus upon Zellie, Potapova, Queen Animatu and Nigiri and I think this quartet along with the in-form and Instant Expert-highlighted Al Agaila will be the main protagonists.

I'd expert all bar Queen Aminatu of that bunch to race prominently, but she makes up for it by having an excellent set of numbers on Instant Expert. The early market would seem to agree with my shortlist here...

..and if those are the odds I've to play with, Al Agaila is the most obvious E/W option with Bet365 paying four places. As for a winner, there won't be much in it, but I'm hoping Queen Animatu gets towed into it earlier than normal, because I think she's best suited here if not left with too much work to do. 9/2 is probably about right here too.

Zellie is a classy filly who has won at Group 1 in France and was fourth in last year's 100 Guineas and I'd say she was the best horse in the race, but I'd be concerned about her needing a run after six months off. Potapova and Nigiri should both be in the mix, but I don't think they're quite at the level of Zellie/Queen Animatu, but I wouldn't be massively shocked if one or both edged my E/W pick out of the money and with Bet365 paying the first four home, I'm tempted with an E/W saver on Nigiri, especially if she drifts out a little.

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