2025 Greatwood Gold Cup Trends

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This Saturday’s Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup is a Handicap Chase staged at Newbury racecourse and is always a hotly-contested event. The race is run over a distance of 2m4f and is currently sponsored by BetVictor, who are also supporting the Greatwood charity. It was first run in 2004 and since then has been dominated by top UK National Hunt trainer Paul Nicholls – who has won the race a staggering nine times - anything he runs should, therefore, be respected.

Here at GeeGeez, we look back at recent winners of the race and give you all the key trends to take into the 2025 renewal – this year run on Saturday 1st March – for example, did you know 17 of the last 20 winners were aged 8 or younger?

Recent Greatwood Gold Cup Chase Winners

2024 - HELTENHAM (17/2)
2023 - THE BIG BITE (12/1)
2022 – PAINT THE DREAM (8/1)
2021 - UMBRIGADO (13/2)
2020 - No Race
2019 – SAN BENEDETO  (11/1)
2018 – Abandoned
2017 – THOMAS CRAPPER (8/1)
2016 – SAMETEGAL (7/1)
2015 – SOUND INVESTMENT (7/2 fav)
2014 – SHANGANI (3/1 fav)
2013 – PACHA Du POLDER (18/1)
2012 – AERIAL (10/3 fav)
2011 – FINE PARCHMENT (12/1)
2010 – BIG FELLA THANKS (8/1)
2009 – NEW LITTLE BRIC (14/1)
2008 – NATAL (3/1 jfav)
2007 – MADISON du BERLAIS (12/1)
2006 – HORUS (22/1) dead-heat
2006 – CORNISH SET (5/1 fav) dead-heat
2005 – SUPREME PRINCE (7/1)
2004 – ISIO (11/2)

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Greatwood Gold Cup Chase Betting Trends

18/20 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
17/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
17/20 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
17/20 – Won over this trip (2m4f) previously (or further)
16/20 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
14/20 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
13/20 – Officially rated 139 or higher
13/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/20 – Favourites placed
9/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
9/20 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
9/20 – Won by a French-bred horse
8/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
7/20 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/20 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/20 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/20 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
3/20 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/20 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1
No winning favourite in the last 7 runnings
Paint The Dream won the race in 2022
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

 

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Racing Insights, Saturday 07/09/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

... on 30-day form...

...1-year form...

... and 1-year course form...

 

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Ascot
  • 2.45 Ascot
  • 3.15 Kempton
  • 4.12 Stratford
  • 4.40 Haydock
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...and with all three listed Trainer/Jockey combos having a runner in the same race on our free list, I suppose it makes sense to see how Arkhalia Flynn, Red Hat Eagle and Orbaan might get on in the 4.40 Haydock, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good to soft ground...

Arkhalia Flynn won last time out and comes here on a hat-trick, having won three and placed once in his last four outings, whilst bottom weight Mr Swivell also won and he’s now two from his last four. As well as being in good nick, this pair are both 3yr olds, so they like Asteverdi and Rogue Encore get a 5lbs weight allowance here.

Aside from the two winners, Asteverdi is our only LTO placer, having finished third a fortnight ago. Most of the field have, however, won at least one of their last seven outings but Rogue Encore is a five-race maiden and Autumn Festival, Nap Hand and Leadenhall are currently on losing streaks of 10, 9 & 9 races respectively.

The top two in the weights, Orbaan and Red Hat Eagle both drop down a class today and Stockpyle is down two grades, but both Beylerbeyi and bottom-weight Mr Swivell take a step up in class.

All bar Nap Hand and the maiden Rogue Encore have already won at least once over today’s trip with Pearl Eye and Leadenhall both former course and distance winners. Arkhalia Flynn has also scored here at Haydock, landing a 7f handicap too months ago, as shown on Instant Expert, which thankfully has a fair smattering of green about it…

...with Arkhalia Flynn and Pearl Eye the standouts despite not having won (or run in one case) on good to soft ground. Asteverdi is sure to like the going, but I doubt Autumn Festival will and this wouldn't be his preferred trip, a fact which seemingly also applies to Orbaan. Leadenhall has the worst Class 4 record and he's only 1 from 6 at the trip too, so he might struggle here, even if his place stats look solid...

Red Hat Eagle is worryingly 14lbs higher than his last turf win and 8lbs higher than a subsequent A/W success at Chelmsford.

I'm going to use the above data to eliminate Orbaan from my enquiries before moving onto draw and pace, which will hopefull both help me narrow down this field. If truth be told, the draw data is fairly inconclusive, but those drawn more centrally seem to have the worst records for win and place...

...so that might not be the best news for Rogue Encore, Nap Hand, Autumn Festival or Beylerbeyl, whilst the pace stats from the same races suggest a front-runner might b the one to be on...

...and this is backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

...with low-drawn front runners the preferred option. We can see how this field have been ridden n their last few races as follows...

There's not much pace in the race, if truth be told and we might well get a falsely run race, which would play into the hands (hooves?) of the lower half of that pace chart, runners who are used to not having to put their effort in until later in the race.

Summary

It normally pays to crack on with thing here at Haydock, but with a field lacking much in the way of early pace, the race could be a falsely run affair and I think the hold-up types might prosper here.

Of those in the lower half of the pace chart, Arkhalia Flynn seems the obvious pick. He's in great form (1311), gets a weight allowance, had a line of green on Instant Expert and is drawn lowest of all. He was the 11/4 favourite with Bet365 on the early (3pm) show, but that might actually be a decent price.

Elsewhere and for similar reasons, I like Pearl Eye and with the bookies paying four places, 10/1 could be an attractive E/W proposition here.

Racing Insights, Friday 06/09/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just one qualifier for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.35 Haydock
  • 2.45 Bangor
  • 4.25 Down Royal
  • 7.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton
  • 9.00 Kempton

And if I'm honest, none of those races above really float my boat, so I'll switch my attention to the day's highest-rated race, the 4.45 Ascot, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

It looks like a pretty open contest between ten runners who failed to even make the frame last time out, but Dear My Friend has won three of his last eight, Hafeet Alain is two from four, Bennetot and Theoryofeverything both won their penultimate race, Navagio is two from seven, Son of Man won on debut six starts ago and Inspiritus has two wins and fur runner-up finishes from his last eight.

Conversely Awaal, Tempus and Classic are winless in their most recent 7, 14 and 7 races respectively.

All ten ran in this grade last time out and Son of Man makes a yard debut for Jim Boyle, whilst receiving a 5lb weight allowance as the sole 3yo in the race, but he's one of four runners (along with Theoryofeverything, Classic and Inspiritus) who have yet to win over today's trip, whilst only Tempus has scored here at Ascot previously, landing a pair of course and distance handicaps in 2020 and 2022, but sadly they don't show up on the two-year overview on Instant Expert, which says he's 0 from 6 here in that period...

He's also 0/5 at Class 2 and 0/10 over a mile, which probably explains why he's 13lbs below his last win. Hafeet Alain is probably the best asuited by these conditions, but there are questions to be asked about Bennetot (class/trip), Theoryofeverything (class), Classic (class/trip) and Awaal (class), if I apply 'my red after 5+ runs' criteria/rule. With so much red around, we're going to ned to look at the place data to see if any have come close to winning...

...and this launches Awaal right into contention too. He's going to race from widest of all in stall 10 and whilst there's a marginal win bias for those drawn more centrally, he's in the right place to make the frame as the PB3 scores suggest stalls 4 and higher are the ideal starting points if we use a figure of 0.50 as our benchmark...

From a pace perspective, leaders and hold-up horses tend to fare best with those caught in the middle not doing as well...

...and if recent efforts are anything to go by, the pace is likley to be set by Hafeet Alain and Inspiritus...

...with Bennetot and Navagio the likely back markers.

Summary

There's no real standout pick for me here today having done my usual checks. I've got it in my head that the likes of Awaal and Bennetot would be the ones to beat today based on past endeavours, but if I'm putting horses forward based on the racecard/tools provided, then there's nothing there to back up my thoughts and we're not relying on gut feeling here.

What the above analysis does tell us is that Hafeet Alain has won two of his last four and was the pick on Instant Expert. he's also likely to set the tempo of the race which gives him a great chance of making the frame, so my tentative suggestion today is Hafeet Alain as an E/W option. He was a 10/1 shot at 3.50pm with Hills, but will probably find at least one rival too good for him.

Racing Insights, Thursday 05/09/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.20 Salisbury
  • 3.30 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Newbury
  • 6.15 Clonmel
  • 7.10 Newbury
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

And aside from a Class 2 maiden for 2yo fillies (not my bag at all), the highest-rated of those is the 7.10 Newbury, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

A competitive-looking race on paper with plenty of info on the racecard itself, so let's start there and look at recent form, where Bright comes here seeking a hat-trick after a place and two wins from his last three. Regal Envoy is 2 from 6 and Miss Stormy Knight is 3 from 4.

Of the other nine runners, Supreme King, Vince Lombardi and Arnaz have one win each from their last seven outings, but Justcallmepete, Capotes Dream, Lahab and Al Shabab are all winless in their previous 11, 10, and 11 races respectively, whilst Haziym, Book of Life and Al Shabab are all still maidens after 13, 5 and 8 attempts.

Most of the field raced at this Class 4 level last time out, but top weight Regal Envoy and fast finisher Lahab both drop down from Class 3, whilst Vince Lombardi, Arnaz and the afore-mentioned maiden Book of Life all step up a level.

The maiden Haziym will wear a visor for the first time here and Miss Stormy Knight is signified as a fast finisher. She's also getting a 2lb weight for age allowance as one of three 3yr olds (along with Arnaz and Al Shabab) in the contest.

Book Of Life and Vince Lombardi have both had a couple of months rest since their last unplaced outings, but the others have all raced at least once on the last three weeks or so and whilst we 've previous course winners from the seven who've tackled this track before, we do have seven previous winners over today's trip with only our three maidens plus Arnax and Lahab failing to do so, according to Instant Expert, which paints a fairly sorry picture over the last two years...

...although Miss Stormy Knight does catch the eye immediately on going/trip with the only two real standout positive pieces of data, but there are plenty of negatives and my old adage is that if the card can't always tell you who to back, it can invariably steer you away from runners like Supreme King (class), Vince Lombardi (trip), Justcallmepete  (class/trip), Capote's Dream (class/trip) and Lahab (class) who all look unlikely winners at this point, even if the latter is now rated 10lbs lower than his sole win just over a year ago.

There is, of course, a possibility that the afore-mentioned quintet have been unlucky not to win more often and could well have come close to winning, so let's check the place stats from the same races as above...

Sadly, most of the reasons to swerve those horses are still in play, but Capote's Dream has a good place record at this grade and a reasonable one at the trip, so he might still figure in my calculations for the places. And if after deciding to focus on this half of the field...

...after Instant Expert, I'm hoping that if there's any draw bias that it'll be towards those drawn highest and I don't normally expect that to be the case over a fast straight 6f, but somewhat surprisingly off an albeit small sample size...

...stalls 6, 7, 8 and 11 have far better win ratios than the others, although I suspect that pace that might have  greater bearing on today's result, so let's check how those 30-odd races above were actually won...

No surprises this time, that's exactly what I though I'd see over a straight, fast six and these two sets of data create a pretty predictable pace/draw heat map...

So, all I need now is for one of more of Instant Expert survivors to be a front-runner and here's how they raced in their last four outings...

...with only Regal Envoy fitting that brief.

Summary

From Instant Expert and the pace/draw analysis together, Regal Envoy is the standout character and has to be in my final thoughts. Bright is our form horse finishing 311 in his last three and has to be respected, which leaves me with one to find for my 3 against the field and of the four options left over from Instant Expert, I'm going with Miss Stormy Knight. She's not ideally suited by the pace data, but has won three of her last four, all over this trip and on good to form ground. She's also getting that 2lb allowance, which could be useful.

I'd not seen any prices until 4.45pm Wednesday and here's how the market looked at that point with only Bet365 open for business...

The bookies will pay four places here, so I'd be happy to put Miss Stormy Knight forward as an E/W possible, whilst Regal Envoy looks much better value than Bright, but I'd expect it to be very tight between the pair.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 04/09/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following handful of runners to consider...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Lingfield
  • 4.20 Kilbeggan
  • 4.42 Bath
  • 5.03 Southwell
  • 5.30 Kilbeggan
  • 6.45 Hamilton

...giving me a total of eight UK races to choose from, the highest rated of which are a pair of Class 4 handicaps at Bath and Kempton, but Ashariba from the TS report above only faces five rivals, so we're off to the 4.42 Bath from the free list, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 4, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a right-handed trip of just beyond 1m3½f on good ground that is currently a little softer in places, but the forecast is for dry weather...

None of the eight managed to win last time out, but Ciara Pearl (won two starts ago) and Bas Blue were runners-up, whilst Divine Presence (also a winner two starts ago) and One Glance both finished third. Ciara Pearl has won four of her last eight and five of her last ten, Miss Dolly Rocker won seven races back and Ville Natale won three races ago, but the bottom three runners on the card (One Glance, Bas Blue & Baynoona) are still maidens after 3, 8 and 4 attempts respectively, whilst Spirit of the Bay has lost eight in a row.

The top four of the card (Ciara Pearl, Miss Dolly Rocker, Divine Presence & Ville Natale) are all dropping down from Class 3, as is One Glance who makes both a handicap debut and a turf debut. Spirit Of The Bay and bottom weight Baynoona both step up a class and this will be Baynoona's second run in a handicap but her first run for new handler Susan Gardner.

Five of this field are still three year old, putting four year olds Ciara Pearl and Miss Dolly Rocker alongside the 6yo Spirit Of The Bay as the trio not receiving an 8lbs weight allowance here. Miss Dolly Rocker is also the only runner here to have tackled this trip before (5th of 8, beaten by just over 5L LTO), but four (Ciara Pearl, Miss Dolly Rocker, Divine Presence & Spirit Of The Bay) have raced here at Bath before for a combined 1 win and 4 placed finishes from 8 efforts. Instant Expert shows Ciara Pearl as the one to have scored here, as she landed a Class 5, 1m2f handicap here at the end of April...

Not a great deal to write home about here, which is unsurprising for a field short on wins but Ciara Pearl's Bath win stands out. Spirit Of The Bay's recent poor form has mainly come in this grade and 1 win from 6 isn't great and probably explains why she's now 11lbs below her last win and if truth be told, the place stats don't paint her in much of a better light either...

...but they do look reasonable for Ciara Pearl, Miss Dolly Rocker, Divine Presence and Bas Bleu. One Glance clearly gets the trip, but has yet to run on grass. As for the draw, I expanded the search criteria for distance, going and field size to get a meaningful/workable sample size, but the draw seems inconclusive...

,,,there's not much in it from the win stats, although those drawn highest have fared slightly worse, but it's the lower drawn runners who haven't quite made the frame as often, so I'd not be hanging my hat on the draw data too much here. If we then look at how those 100+ races above were won, a much clearer pattern emerges..

...backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

...which shows that front-runners prevail no matter where they are drawn. We then look back at the field's most recent (or all in One Glance's case) runs to see how they might run here...

...and although we've no out and out front runner here, it wouldn't be a huge leap to suggest that Ciara Pearl (drawn low) might take this on after three prominent runs (or further forward) from her last four.

Summary

Ciara Pearl is the form horse here and drops in class, she's the sole course winner in the field and seemingly most likely from the pace/draw heat map, so she'd be the one for me here.

Bas Blue may well be an 8-race maiden, but has been in the first three home in five of her last six races and came within a neck of landing a 1m4f handicap at Newbury at this grade last time out. A similar run here puts her right in the mix. Divine Presence has been running well of late recently and would be in my thoughts, but for the fact that she's likely to be off the pace and if handling the switch to turf, One Glance is interesting on handicap debut after a pair of third place finishes over 1m4f at Kempton and could be an E/W contender based on these odds at 5pm Tuesday...

Racing Insights, Tuesday 03/09/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where we've two runners in the same race at Brighton. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.20 Goodwood
  • 3.05 Southwell
  • 4.40 Goodwood
  • 4.50 Southwell
  • 6.30 Southwell

...and with Aggagio and Master Milliner from the Shortlist running in one of our free races, it makes sense to look at the 4.40 Goodwood (a race Aggagio won in 2022), an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 2m on good ground...

Only the afore-mentioned Master Milliner managed to win last time out. but Beamish was a runner-up and both The Grand Visir & East India Dock finished third, the former doing so for the second successive race.

Calling The Wind won his penultimate race, LTO-winner Master Milliner is three from his last seven, Ben Lilly is two from six and East India Dock won five starts ago. Beamish, Aggagio, Diamond Bay and The Grand Visir are, however, winless in 7, 7, 8 and 30 races respectively.

Only the top three in the weights ran at Class 2 last time out with the other five all stepping up in class at least one level with Aggagio and Ben Lilly up two classes. This pair might also be in need of a run after respective absences of 155 and 225 days, but Calling The Wind has been off the track longer than the previous pair combined, as he now runs for the first time in just over 13 months.

As the sole 3yo in the field, bottom weight Est India Dock is afforded a huge 11lbs allowance, but he's one of only two runners (along with Beamish) yet to win over today's trip. Our two runners from the Shortlist, Master Milliner and Aggagio are former course and distance winners, whilst Calling The Wind won here over 2m4½f way back in July 2021 as seen on Instant Expert below...

Most of the field have decent place stats, but Diamond Bay and The Grand Visir both look weak, whilst from a win perspective, it's our Shortlisted duo plus Ben Lilly who catch the eye.

As you'd expect for two mile flat race, there doesn't seem to be much to be had from the draw...

...but the pace angle is a different kettle of fish. Hold-up horses have the worst place record and front-runners tend to get reeled in by those just behind, so it's best to avoid leaders and hold-up types for win bets and hold-up horses for place purposes...

...which, based on the field's last few runs, would suggest that Aggaggio will be the one with the target on his back...

...whilst the pace/draw heat map suggests that Aggagio and East India Dock are the least advantaged...

Summary

Aggagio, Ben Lilly and Calling The Wind look like they might need the run and Diamond Bay has only made the frame once in eight starts, so I don't really want to back any of those.

The Grand Visir has been third in each of his last two, but only 4 ran last time out and he has lost 30 on the bounce, so I can't back him either, effectively leaving me with Beamish, Master Milliner and East India Dock against the field.

As of 7.15pm on Monday, this trio were best priced at 13/2, 9/2 and 11/8 as the top three in the market. 11/8 about East India Dock doesn't scream value to me, so he's not for me and the tentative play here is an E/W suggestion at 13/2 with Beamish.

Racing Insights, Monday 02/09/24

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Sorry for the late posting of the column today, I've had some tech gremlins going on at home the past few days, but hopefully all is now fixed!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Brighton
  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 4.10 Roscommon
  • 7.30 Windsor

Of the three UK races above, the one with the most runners is the 7.30 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground...

Betweenthesticks won last time out, whilst Jungle Run finished third on his last start. Tilsworth Ony Ta and Glamorous Joy both won their penultimate outings and Cabeza De Llave won six races ago, but Papa Don't Preach, Agostino and Jungle Run are currently on losing streaks of 12, 7 & 9 respectively, whilst Chiedozie is still a maiden after 13 attempts.

Tilsworth Ony Ta and Glamorous Joy both drop down a class here and as a three year old, the latter gets a 1lb weight allowance, as does the maiden Chiedozie.

Chiedozie is, of course, yet to win over 5f, but so are Agostino and Jungle Run, whilst Tilsworth Ony Ta and Cabeza de Llave are both former course and distance winners, albeit from July 2022 and June 2022 respectively.

These course and distance wins are too far back to make it onto what looks a pretty bleak 2-year window on Instant Expert...

...which probably doesn't help mus find a winner, but does highlight the scarcity of wins in general from this field and more specifically Betweenthesticks at going/trip, Papa Don't Preach (trip), Agostino (trip) and also Cabeza de Llave at the trip. let's hope the place records are more helpful...

At last, some green! But Papa Don't Preach still struggles at the trip, whilst both Agostino and Cabeza de Llave look generally weak, although the latter is now some 10lbs below his last turf win (he did win on the A/W fairly recently off 57, though). Betweenthesticks has some decent numbers too and at 13lbs below his last turf win, he could be dangerous too. Tilsworth Ony Ta is probably/possibly the pick of the pack on place stats.

On a quick straight 5f, there shouldn't be much of a draw bias here, but past races have favoured those drawn highest, especially from stall 5 and higher, when it comes to making the frame...

...but pace (our daily feature) is clearly a different matter with over half of front-runners holding on for at least a place and over 40% of those placers going on to win. The graph shows an almost linear improvement in win chances the further forward a horse races here over 5f at Windsor...

...which based on recent runs, could be good news for the likes of Agostino, Betweenthesticks, Jungle Run and Tilsworth Ony Ta...

Summary

Pace is generally key here over the shorter trips at Windsor and on that basis, I'm splitting the pack in half and focusing upon Agostino, Betweenthesticks, Jungle Run and Tilsworth Ony Ta from the pace data above. If we then look back at the draw stats, Jungle Run looks least favoured from stall one as the other trio will emerge from boxes 5, 6 and 8.

Agostino was the weakest of the four on Instant Expert and has yet to win any of twelve starts on Turf, making the frame just once, so I'm effectively picking between Tilsworth Ony Ta and Betweenthesticks with the latter in marginally better form.

Betweenthesticks is the most likely winner today in my opinion, but at odds ranging from 15/8 to 9/4 as of 8.35am on Monday, I'm not really tempted to jump in. You can, however, get 8/1 about Tilsworth from Bet365, Sky & Hills, so that might be the E/W value play today, but as ever on a Monday my advice is not to dig too deeply into your pockets.

Racing Insights, Friday 30/08/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just two qualifiers for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.15 Thirsk
  • 4.05 Down Royal
  • 4.15 Thirsk
  • 4.45 Southwell
  • 4.50 Thirsk
  • 7.25 Wexford

...and I think I'll look at the first of our list of free races, the 3.15 Thirsk, a 9-runner, Class 3 , 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

...where Makanah was the only one to win last time out, although top-weight Ventura Express, Tinto and Trilby were all placed third and all nine runners have won at least one of their last six outings with Ventura Express and Miss Bodacious scoring twice.

Brazen Bolt and Trilby both drop down from Class 2, but Rousing Encore, Miss Bodacious and Beattie Is Back are all up one class for a race that sees both Rousing Encore and Reveiller make debuts for their new handlers, whilst Miss Bodacious will wear a visor for the first time. She, along with Reveiller, will receive a useful 3lbs weight for age allowance here too.

Most of the field have raced at least once in the last five weeks and Reveiller latest run was eight weeks ago, but Beattie Is Back might well need the run, having been in the shed since mid-May 2023 and he's also one of just three runners here (Ventura Express and Reveiller) yet to win over today's trip. Of the six who have won over 6f previously, class-dropper Brazen Bolt and Tinto are course and distance winners, whilst Makanah has also won at this venue, albeit over 5f way back in mid-May 2019, which of course, won't show up on the two-year form record on Instant Expert, which suggests that Tinto might struggle at this level, having lost 12 of 14 starts at Class 3...

...whereas Makanah has won half of his four efforts. Tinto's record over this trip is even worse than his Class 3 numbers, whilst Rousing Encore makes no appeal at all. Perhaps they've been unlucky and have a string of placed finishes behind them? Let's check...

Unsurprisingly, that's not the case, but Brazen Bolt is now in my mind as a possible placer. In addition to those numbers above, he has been in the frame four times from five on good ground and he's only a pound higher than his last win and he's well drawn here in stall 4. You don't usually get much of a draw bias over a straight 6f on decent ground, but those drawn in the lowest six stalls do seem to have performed a little better than those in 7 or higher...

...but if that's a bit of a surprise, then the fact that front-runners fare best here won't be too much of a shock...

...giving us this pace/draw heat map...

...suggesting that the best positions would be a low-drawn leader or mid-drawn runners in prominent/mid-division places. And if we look at the field's most recent races...

...there's no real proven front runner, but Brazen Bolt and Rousing Encore seem best suited by the pace/draw situation

Summary

Makanah, Ventura Express, Tinto and Trilby performed the best last time out. Brazen Bolt and Trilby both drop down from Class 2 and Makanah, Ventura Express, Tinto and Brazen Bolt were the picks from Instant Expert, whilst Brazen Bolt and Rousing Encore seem best suited by pace/draw.

Of those mentioned above, I think I like Trilby best based on his third placed run in a higher grade from out of the handicap last time out and he'd be my pick ahead of Makanah. It's then easy to make a case for any of the other three, but I think I'd side with Brazen Bolt. he ticks more boxes for me and is likely to offer the best value, speaking of which : here's the market as of 3.50pm Thursday...

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/08/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.55 Ffos Las
  • 4.00 Navan
  • 5.05 Navan
  • 5.20 Newbury
  • 7.12 Southwell

...and as Thursday night is Racing League Night, we're off to Nottinghamshire for the 7.12 Southwell for race 39, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 8 yards shy of 2m½f on standard tapeta...

...where bottom weight (thanks to his 3yo 12lb weight allowance) Warmonger is the form horse, having won each of his last three starts. Cardano also won last time out, whilst Solent Gateway and Manxman had top three finishes. Those without a win in seven starts, however include Solent Gateway and Soowaih after eleven and ten consecutive defeats respectively, whilst Boldly is a nine-race maiden.

Only Wahraan (4th of 8), Manxman (3rd of 11) and Cinnodin (5th of 11) raced at this Class 3 level last time out as Solent Gateway, Cardano, Robusto, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois all step up a class. Form horse Warmonger is up two levels, but Shagpyle does drop in class here.

The entire field have raced at least once in the last eight weeks and Cinnodin is the only previous course winner of the five to have visited this venue, having landed a Class 6, 1m6f handicap here back in April 2023. He and five others have also won over a similar trip to this one, but Wahraan, Cardano, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois are yet to score at either track or trip, whilst Instant Expert says none of the field have a Class 3 win to their name in the last two years...

Robusto and Warmonger have a trio of wins at going/trip respectively and the only real alarm bells so far surround Solent Gateway's ability to win over 2m, having lost 11 of 12 attempts. he has made the frame in 4 of those defeats, but I won't be backing him today, especially after seeing the rest of his place form...

It's probably the end of the road for me with Wahraan too at this point as others seem better poised.

It's a two-mile race on standard going, so I wouldn't have expected any huge draw bias and wasn't surprised/ disappointed with the data, even if those drawn centrally have had slightly better results...

...and it's a bit of a mixed bag with pace too, as leaders and mid-division runners haven't done as well as the stalking prominent types or those held up for a late run...

...giving us quite a few draw/pace combos that have been reasonably successful...

...whilst in terms of this field's last few runs and their own pace/draw make-up...

...Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih and Warmonger are fully in the 'preferred zone' with Manxman just shy thanks to a hold up run two starts ago and Le Rouge Chinois on the cusp due to draw vagaries.

Summary

Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih, Warmonger, Manxman and Le Rouge Chinois would be the ones to consider from the pace/draw angle, but I ruled Solent Gateway out earlier and Soowaih has lost eleven on the bounce.

Of the remaining five runners, Cardano, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois have yert to win at either track or trip, leaving me with the form pair Manxman and Warmonger. Warmonger will find this tougher, up two classes and carrying a 10lb penalty for his last win. he's now rated 20lbs higher than two months ago and whilst he'll be popular here, I think he might be susceptible as a front-runner to getting reeled in by Manxman, who'll probably offer more value too.

A quick look at the market as of 4.25pm Wednesday backed up my theory...

...but I'd be happy to take Manxman and Warmonger as my 1-2. Some bookies wil pay four places here and if you were looking for some E/W action, then Cardano might fit the bill at 10/1 or bigger.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 28/08/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...and have highlighted just one runner of possible interest...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.15 Catterick
  • 4.05 Musselburgh
  • 5.18 Bellewstown
  • 7.30 Kempton

...and I think I'll have a look at Baraq and the 8.00 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Baraq did make the frame, when 3rd of 14 over a mile at Southwell at the start of the month. He is however, a 4-race maiden and both South Pole and Liam Swagger have yet to get off the mark too, after three and six attempts respectively. The whole 8-runner field has won just 7 of 46 so far, but have made the frame twenty times (43.5%)

Liam Swagger has only raced in a handicap once before and it's the first crack for South Pole, Niigata and featured runner Baraq. South Pole and Niigata both run for the first time since being gelded and both will sport new equipment; South Pole will be tongue-tied and Niigata will be blinkered.

Niigata also steps up a class here, as does Baraq, but New Chelsea and True Wisdom drop down a level, whilst Into battle drops two classes.

The two who have recently been gelded haven't raced for nine and eleven weeks, but the other half dozen have all had an outing in the last four weeks and both Magico and Into Battle have already won here at Kempton.

Those wins will show below on Instant Expert, but with a field only having seven total wins, we'd better also look at the place stats...

Magico and Into Battle seems the best positioned based on the win stats, albeit off a very small sample size of races. New Chelsea is the most experienced at this level and has made the frame in half of his six defeats, but the concern already is that he always seems to find at least or two runners too good for him and I suppose you can say the same about Liam Swagger at the trip.

Our Draw Analyser says there's little to be gained from being drawn in a particular section of the stalls, although runners in stalls 1 and 2 have relatively poor records, which might not be good news for Into Battle and New Chelsea, but I wouldn't rule any horse out based purely on the draw stats over 1m3f here at Kempton...

Pace, however, is a different story, as hold-up horses have found it really difficult to win from behind here...

Thankfully, we don't seem to have any hold-up types in this race, although Magico was slow away three starts ago...

Summary

So we've an inexperienced field and no real pace or draw bias to help us whittle down the contenders, but New Chelsea has made the frame five times from nine and Baraq has done so three times from four. Into Battle and Magico were the initial standouts from Instant Expert and I think I'd want these four rather than the other four runners in the race.

Into Battle drops two classes here and that might just tip the balance slightly his way, but otherwise I don't think there's that much between the four of them. Perhaps the market as of 5.40pm Tuesday will help...

...or maybe not! Sod's Law seems to have prevailed here; there's no E/W route out for me to hedge my bets and I'd probably agree with the bookies that Baraq might be marginally better than New Chelsea and Magico, but I wouldn't invest too much of your time nor money on this one!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 27/08/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first three would certainly be of interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.40 Musselburgh
  • 2.55 Ripon
  • 3.40 Musselburgh
  • 6.15 Bellewstown

...but to be honest, the days racing is really pooor and I think I'm actually going to swerve the whole lot and just look at the day's highest-rated race.

OK, so that's going to be the 6.25 Stratford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over almost 2m3½f on good/good to firm ground. It's not an ideal race to cover, but it's the best on the day and here's the card...

AL ZARAQAAN won four chases on the bounce last summer and won again at Cartmel back in May. Well beaten in two runs since finishing 12th of 13 and 13th of 16, but does drop in class/trip today.

EL BORRACHO last won just over a year ago at Bangor and hasn't tackled a fence since finishing last of 11 back at the same track in May. Since then he has been well beaten in a 2m Flat race and a 2m4f hurdle, but was 3rd of 9 over 1m6f at Haydock earlier this month.

LA DOMANIALE was a course and distance winner here just over two years ago and has only raced seven times since. She won at Aintree in May 2023 and was 3rd of 7 here over C&D a year ago before ending the season as a runner-up at Worcester. her seasonal return saw her just 15th of 16 at Market Rasen, but she's down in class/trip here.

ONEMOREFORTHEROAD won a 2m2f chase at Kempton back in April for a second success inside four outings and was a Kempton runner-up next time out, but has been 6th of 8 and 9th of 13 in two runs since, so much will depend which version of this useful chaser turns up.

ROTTEN ROW had a run of eight defeats between chase wins at Tramore in August 2023 and here at Stratford over 2m4½f in early June on his penultimate outing. Subsequently beaten by nine lengths as fourth home of eleven at Cartmel, a current mark of 118 might be a tad too high for him as he steps up two classes.

GREY SKIES won back to back chases at Sedgefield and Perth in March/April 2023, but has failed to win any of eleven starts since, despite four runner-up finishes and is up in class after a 54 length defeat at Bangor last time out. He has, however, had wind surgery since that run and also wears a tongue-tie for the first time today.

The two-year Instant Expert overview doesn't really push me in any direction, but it does raise queries about bottom weight Grey Skies...

...pretty self-explanatory stuff, of course. Grey Skies doesn't seem suited by the going, El Borracho has the worst Class 2 record, Rotten Row would probably prefer a different trip and he's 7lbs higher than his last win. He has made the frame on one of those three distance defeats and Grey Skies has made the frame twice on this going, but El Borracho is still struggling for class, according to the place stats...

Small field chases over this kind of trip here at Stratford have favoured horses willing to get n with things and set the tempo, which might well be El Borracho's saving grace if recent efforts are anything to go by...

...but he's likely to have company from Onemorefortheroad here.

Summary

Not much to discuss here to be honest, but my thoughts are that Rotten Row is probably the least poor of a bad bunch running in what looks a really poor race for a Class 2 handicap. My issue with Rotten Row, though, is that he's currently (4.45pm Monday) only a 2/1 shot and there's no value there for me. The other five were bracketed in the 9/2 to 13/2 range, so no scope for an E/W bet just yet and my advice here would be to not have a bet.

If I was to pick one, it'd be a tentative nudge towards Grey Skies after a wind op and a drop in trip or maybe a very small E/W punt on current 13/2 outsider El Borracho (based on the pace angle) if he was to drift a little further.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 26/08/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.47 Southwell
  • 3.05 Downpatrick
  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 3.40 Downpatrick
  • 3.52 Epsom
  • 6.05 Southwell

I was almost tempted by the Amateur Derby, but the best (on paper, anyway) of these looks like being the 3.35 Chepstow, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good to soft ground...

...where every single runner is up in class and both Kalama Sunshine and Fact or Fable come here on the back of a win with the former having five wins and two runner-up finishes from her last seven starts including finishes of 1121 over course and distance.

Stockpyle, Valkyrian, Believe You Me, Racing Demon and Fact Or Fable have all won at least two of their last five runs, but Magical Merlin and Macs Dilemma are winless in eight and eleven respectively.

Lady Flora is the sole 3yo in the race and receives a 6lbs allowance for that and like half of the field will be ridden by a claimer. Trainer John O'Shea sends three runners here and aside from Racing Demon who returns from a 53-day break, the field have all had a race this month.

Magical Merlin and Bantry have yet to win at track or trip and of the ten previous course winners here at Catterick, only Believe You Me, Macs Dilemma and Soi Dao are without a course and distance win, although the latter has won over this trip elsewhere, but she's only one from eight over the last couple of years as referenced by Instant Expert...

...where the top half of the card looks stronger than the bottom and Macs Dilemma, Letter of The Law and Bantry all look weak with the latter also having a terrible place record...

...and I think I want to be focusing upon these runners today...

Our Draw Analyser says that off an albeit small sample of races that those drawn more centrally have performed best, but it is a small sample so we must tread carefully...

...whilst the Pace Analysis of those races says that horses who race further forward have the best chances of making the frame and going on to win...

...with the pace/draw heat map looking like this...

...and this field's most recent outings suggest we could have a bit of a burn up...

Of the seven runners I highlighted from Instant Expert, I'm going to cross Racing Demon off after seeing that he's likely to be held up. A quick glance back at the pace/draw heat map says that ideally we'd have a mid-drawn front runner (Valkyrian), a mid-drawn prominent runner (Lady Flora) and a high-drawn leader (Stockpyle) and seeing as we have one of each, we'll take them to the final analysis.

Summary

Instant Expert, Draw, Pace and the Pace/Draw combinations have brought us to a three-runner shortlist of Valkyrian, Lady Flora and Stockpyle, who I think all have a great chance of at least making the frame. I'd also like to throw Kalama Sunrise's name into the equation/hat, because even though she doesn't appear to fit well here in stall 2, she'll certainly be up with the pace, she did score well on Instant Expert, she's in great form and is the track/trip specialist.

Kalama Sunrise is, therefore my marginal pick just ahead of the excellent Lady Flora. These two should be too good for the others, but Stockpyle & Valkyrian might have a good battle for minor honours. No odds were available at 3.55pm Sunday, but with the bookies paying four places here, if we can get 8/1 or bigger about any of these four, a nice E/W bet could be the ticket.

Racing Insights, Saturday 24/08/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 3.00 York
  • 3.05 Killarney
  • 3.15 Goodwood
  • 3.20 Newmarket
  • 5.25 Killarney
  • 6.00 Redcar

from which I'm taking a look at the Group 2 City of York Stakes from the free list aka the 3.00 York, an 8-runner affair for horses aged 3 or over and the trip is a left-handed 7f on good ground...

My initial thoughts were that this race might well boil down to a battle between Kinross (who won this race in 2022 and 2023) and Lake Forest (who gets a 5lb allowance as the sole 3yo in the race) for the right to finish second behind Audience, who I suspect will go off as a pretty short favourite, but let's have a proper look.

ART POWER has been useful in the past and ended last season with a Gr1 win on Champions Day at Ascot. Has yet to win in five attempts this season, but was a 4-lengths second to Audience in the Gr2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood 25 days ago, although he was afforded a soft lead that day.

AUDIENCE ran alone and made all to win the Gr1 Lockinge at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance in May, but was only fifth in the Queen Anne a month later. He soon put that run behind him to land the afore-mentioned Lennox at Goodwood 25 days ago and looks the one to beat here.

FIVETHOUSANDTOONE has only won one of eighteen starts on the Flat and having finished 17th of 18 and 17th of 25 in his last two starts (both Class 2 handicaps), he'd not be high on many shortlists here.

KINROSS was a Gr1 winner on Champions Day to end the 2022 season after winning this race and another Gr2 contest at Doncaster. He also won the Lennox and this race last year and was third behind Audience and Art Power in this year's Lennox after blowing the start. He'll need to get away sharper if he want a third win in this race.

SHOULDVEBEENARING has lost ten on the bounce in the UK since landing a listed race at Newmarket in May 2023 and whilst he has four top three finishes at Class 1 during that run of defeats, you'd have to think there are at least one or two to beat him again today.

VAFORTINO won a Listed race at Redcar back in October and was sixth in this year's Wokingham followed by a near-three length defeat in a Chester Listed contest last time out. A steady performer, but steady cuts little mustard at Group 2!

BREEGE gets a 3lb weight allowance as the only female in the race and she started this season the same way she finished the last one, making the frame but losing by a head in a Listed race (Ascot & Goodwood) but she did last the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth at Epsom in June. Only 7th of 9 last time out and this is a tougher race, so she's likely to be down the pecking order once more.

LAKE FOREST gets that useful 5lb 3yo allowance here and comes here in good nick. He won the Gimcrack here over 6f last August and has been a runner-up at both Gr1 and Gr3 in his two races this term. Tends to run on late, so the step up to 7f might suit and after just seven races, he's not fully exposed.

INSTANT EXPERT almost inevitably points us back towards Audience and Kinross...

...and highlights Vafortino's lack of success at this trip. Breege is also winless in five attempts at 7f and has a really poor win return in Class 1 contests, losing 10 of 11, although she has made the frame in half of those ten defeats...

...and she is relatively well drawn if past races here are anything to go by...

That said, the draw influence isn't huge as the bend here on the 7f track is quite gentle and it's often race positioning aka pace that settles the contests here...

...with front-runners having most joy, which could be good news for the likes of Art Power, Audience and Breege based on their most recent efforts...

Summary

I still think Audience is the best in the race and will win here, but we're not getting rich at odds ranging from 5/4 to 6/4. Kinross and Lake Forest are still what I consider to be next bests, but at 11/4 to 4/1 probably offer little value/point to a bet, so it might well be the likes of Art Power as an E/W option at 12's today. He split Audience and Kinross last time out, so could he do it again?

Racing Insights, Friday 23/08/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced no qualifiers...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.10 Newmarket
  • 2.25 York
  • 3.45 Ffos Las
  • 4.30 Newmarket
  • 5.50 Goodwood
  • 7.12 Killarney

...the highest rated of which is the 2.25 York, a 9-runner, Group 2 contest for horses aged 3 or over. The going is expected to be good firm and the trip is a left-handed 2m 78yds after a 22 yard rail adjustment...

Al Nayyir hasn't raced in the UK for almost four years since his debut at Kempton, but has won two of his last eight in France. Alsakib won last time out and has won three of his last seven. Gregory made the frame last time out for a fifth defeat on the bounce since completing a hat-trick in the Queen's Vase at Ascot in June '23. Point Lonsdale was third in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time out and won the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May on his last UK outing.

Quickthorn won the Gr1 Goodwood Cup last August, but has failed to impress in his three runs since finishing 6th of 7 in this race last year, then last of 5 and 4th of 8 in two lower class races. Tashkan won a Class 2 handicap at Chester last September and came within a length of landing the Cesarewitch a fortnight later, but has been disappointing this term, going down by 32L and 10l in his two starts.

Vauban won a 16-runner Class 2 handicap at Ascot in June '23 and then a Group 3 contest at Naas seven weeks later and has made the frame in a couple of group 2 races this season already. Night Sparkle won a trio of handicaps back to back last summer and has been a runner-up in three of his four starts this year. Align The Stars comes here off the back of three handicap successes, but will step up in both class and trip today.

Al Nayyir has been gelded since his last run and also makes a yard debut for Tom Clover, meaning this will be his fourth yard debut in ten races! The 5yo mare Night Sparkle receives a 3lbs weight allowance here and Align The Stars receives a more than useful 12lbs as the race's only 3 yr old.

Alsakib was a Group 3 winner here at York on his last outing and of his rivals, only Quickthorn has won over this trip, scoring over course and distance under today's jockey Tom Marquand in this very race in 2022, as seen on Instant Expert...

...where Alsakib is probably the standout overall, but Point Lonsdale does have those three Class 1 wins to his name. Tashkan, Vauban, and Night Sparkle have struggled to win top-flight races, whilst the first two of that trio look the weakest on that graphic, but Vauban does have this knack of making the frame, which means I'm not ruling him out of my thoughts just yet...

Over a race of this distance, I wouldn't expect the draw to be a massively deciding factor, but runners in stall 1 have a ridiculously high win ration in comparison to the rest of the stalls...

...landing almost a quarter of those races above. The pace stats for those races above aren't entirely conclusive either, but horses running in mid-division have fared the best, whilst those setting the pace have had a target on their backs...

If we look at how this field have approached their most recent outings, it's difficult to assume who might be setting the tempo today, as all bar Vauban and Alsakib have an average pace score of 3.00 (prominent) or higher!

Summary

I think that seven of the nine might get involved in a bit of a bunfight for the lead at some point and this might lead to some wilting under the pressure, opening the door for a late run from Vauban and/or Alsakib, both of whom are more than capable of making the frame.

As for those seeking to set the pace, Night Sparkle and Align the Stars both scored well on Instant Expert, but in races like this, the cream usually rises to the top and I think that Point Lonsdale is the best horse in the race, even if the stats above don't back me up and for me, he's definitely in my top three today.

I'd then take two of Vauban, Alsakib, Night Sparkle and Align The Stars and it's the latter I'm ruling out first. Yes, he's in great form, but steps up in trip and this is a far tougher proposition than a Class 2 handicap. He's only 3 yrs old and bigger/better days are on his horizon, but probably not today.

Night Sparkle looks like the perennial bridesmaid and might struggle back amongst male company, so I'm dropping her here too, leaving me with Point Lonsdale as my best in race and Vauban/Alsakib as my possible placers, so let's check the market at 4.50pm Thursday...

Point Lonsdale isn't a surprising favourite here and he's pretty much about the price I expected (I'd jotted 2/1 to 5/2 on my pad). Vauban looks terribly short for a horse that rarely wins under these conditions, but Alsakib is very interesting from an E/W perspective at 10/1.

Racing Insights, Thursday 22/08/24

/in /by

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.10 Newton Abbot
  • 2.25 York
  • 6.15 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle
  • 7.55 Leopardstown

...from which, we'll head (as we tend to on a Thursday) for the Racing League and Race 32, the 7.15 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed trip just shy of 1m4½f on standard to slow tapeta...

Lexington Knight won last time out and has won two of his last five, Night breeze has won each of his last three and Tafsir won last time out too for a third win in six outings and an eighth successive top-3 finish.

Corsican Caper has also won three of his last six and most of the field have at least one win in their recent form line, but Who's Glen is a three-race maiden whilst John Chard VC is winless in seven races/two years and now makes an A/W debut. Who's Glen has, however, made the frame in each of his three outings to date.

Plenty of these are moving class today, but only Kamboo drops down a level for his second run in a handicap. Matchless, Lexington Knight, Dark Jedi, John Chard VC and Percy Jones all step up one class; Who's Glen makes a handicap debut and Corsican Caper makes a yard debut as both step up two classes with in-form Tafsir stepping up three levels here, which could be tough.

Top weight True Courage did run at this grade last time out, but after three indifferent efforts is now fitted with blinkers for the first time. Kamboo is the highest-rated runner in the race off a mark of 87 (2lbd higher than True Courage), but as one of two 3yr olds in the race (along with handicap debutant Who's Glen) in the race, benefits from a very handy 9lbs weight allowance today.

Most of this field have had at least one outing in the last four weeks, but Percy Jones, Kamboo and Corsican Caper return from short breaks of 54, 63 and 77 days respectively, whilst Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week layoff since a 51 length defeat over hurdles at Fontwell. In fact, his last six outings have all been over hurdles and hasn't raced on level ground since finishing fourth of seven, beaten by sixteen lengths over 1m4f at Catterick ten months ago.

Matchless is one for four runners here (Kamboo, John Chard VC and Who's Glen being the others) yet to win over a similar trip to this one. Four other runners have also won here at Newcastle in the past with True Courage, La Pulga and Lexington Knight all former course and distance winners, whilst Furzig won here over 1m2f way back in July 2019, but that would even register on the five-year form on Instant Expert, never mind this two-year overview...

...where True Courage is probably the main standout runner. Corsican Caper, Furzig, Night Breeze and Lexington Knight have multiple wins at this trip, but Dark Jedi and La Pulga have really struggled to win, whilst Percy Jones hasn't fared that much better. Tafsir and Furzig are a combined 0 from 14 here at Newcastle over the last two years, whilst Matchless, Furzig and La Pulga are a combined 1 from 27 at Class 3! It's probably safe to assume that I'll not be backing Tafsir, Matchless, Dark Jedi, Furzig, La Pulza or Percy Jones to win here, but half of that group remain in contention for the places so far, now that I've seen this...

They're still not high up in my thoughts, of course, but they are still part of this group I'm now focusing on...

..as we now check whether any might be aided or hindered by the draw. Before I look at the draw stats, I'd say that I'd be surprised in stall position made or broke a horse's chances of winning when there's over a mile and a half to run after the gates open, but I'd better check the stats anyway, because we know that data doesn't lie!

And that data would actually suggest that those drawn highest have fared best of all. from a win perspective, stalls 4, 5, 6 and 10+ have had the best win percentages, but we're not talking huge margins here...

...although it is technically good news for Matchless, True Courage, Night Breeze, Lexington Knight and La Pulga. Sadly, if we thought that the draw data was particularly helpful, the pace stats are even less useful today, I'm afraid, with no real clear pattern...

..and this is reflected in the pace/draw heat map...

So, when this happens, I tend to go back to the racecard and Instant Expert to help guide me.

Summary

It's not an exact science, but if I refer to Instant Expert and the place data and focus upon those with three blocks of green, I'm suddenly only looking at four runners...

...and all four fit the slight draw bias we mentioned earlier.

Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week break from racing and tackling a first non-NH race in ten months might test his fitness. It's also almost sixteen months since he last won on the level and he has yet to make the frame in seven A/W starts, so that's an easy decision to drop him from my list of possibles.

This leaves me with a trio in racecard order of True Courage, Lexington Knight and Night Breeze and I think true Courage is definitely the weaker of the three. I don't however see much between Lexington Knight and Night Breeze, but if pushed to stick my neck out, I'd probably go with Night Breeze who rarely runs a bad race.

A market check at 5.15pm Wednesday showed this...

...and with bookies paying four places, Lexington Knight and True Courage both fall into what I'd class as being "E/W backable"

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