Racing Insights, Monday 19/06/23

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Carlisle
  • 5.00 Lingfield
  • 5.10 Kilbeggan
  • 6.35 Windsor
  • 7.43 Kilbeggan

And as PACE is the free feature, let's tackle a sprint in the 5.00 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

Spirit of Breeze and Sabah Al Ward are still maidens after five and four attempts respectively and neither have even made the frame and I don't see that changing here. The rest of the field have all won at least one of their last five outings with Alpine Goal the sole LTO winner.

That was here over course and distance (Diomed Spirit has also won over C&D) less than a fortnight ago and she now steps up one class (as does Cuban Grey) and she is denoted as being a fast finisher. Destiny's Spirit and Cuban Grey are also both former winners over this trip.

Most of the field have raced in the last six weeks, but Diomed Spirit may need the run after a run of poor form last season was halted by a six months absence and he might well need the run and he's probably carrying too weight here.

Elsewhere, Sabah Al Ward runs in a handciap for the just the second time and now wears a hood for the first time as well as a first time in a tongue tie. Spirit of Breeze also makes a debut in a tongue-tie.

I already think that this race is beyond the two maidens and Diomed Spirit's long layoff after some poor runs makes me uncomfortable, so I'm only really interested in these runners on Instant Expert...

...where Cuban Grey looks like one to be swerved! His stats on standard going and over this trip are particularly awful and he's going to sent packing from my analysis, unless he's just been unluvky and has made the frame regularly...

The numbers are admittedly better, but he's still the worst of the four and has to say goodbye, leaving us with runners in stalls 3, 4 & 6, but over the last 100 or so races over this course and distance, there doesn't seem to be any discernible advantage to being in a certain stall...

...although stall 3's stats are the best, but I think not anomalous and unreliable, whereas feature of the day, the PACE angle, is a totally different matter...

...where the data suggests the further forward you race, the better chance of winning/placing, suiting Skallywag Bay best of all, if the field's most recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

The three horses I've left in to the PACE analysis are the three I'd want to be with. Destiny's Spirit looks the outlier here and least likely to win, but at 16/1 with Skybet paying three places must be worth a small E/W punt.

As for the other pair, they're the market leaders and I know the pace says Skallywag Bay should make all and win, I just think that Alpine Girl's C&D win last time out might just edge it for her here. Either way Alpine Girl at 9/4 and Skallywag Bay at 7/2 would be my two for the reverse forecast/exacta.

Racing Insights, Saturday 17/06/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a stack of qualifiers for me to consider...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Chester
  • 3.05 York
  • 3.10 Hexham
  • 3.45 Hexham
  • 4.20 Hexham
  • 5.55 Leicester

Now, two of our free races from Hexham also contain runners from my TJC qualifiers, but the free list has a Class 1 race that it would be rude to ignore, so we're going back to the Knavesmire (where my 1-2-3 finished 3-1-2 for a £170 trifecta and I'd a couple of E/W successes) for a tilt at the Listed Grand Cup Stakes. Your cards have it as the 3.05 York, a 7-runner flat contest for horses aged 4 and over who will tackle the left-handed mile and three quarters on good to firm ground...

The bookies seem to think it's a two-horse race here between Israr and Quickthorn with Roberto Escobarr not quite as good as them, but much better than the rest...

...they might well be right, of course, but (a) that's not always the case and (b) we might still find something here...

ROBERTO ESCOBARR has 3 wins and 2 further places from ten starts on the Flat and landed this very race two years ago. His best result to date is a Group 3 win on his last outing, but that means he now concedes 5lbs to the boys and 10lbs to the girls here, making life tough.

ISRAR has 3 wins and 3 places from 9 and was narrowly beaten in a Newbury Group 3 last time out, when headed on the line in the Aston Park stakes four weeks ago. There was no disgrace in getting caught by a typical flying Frankie Dettori finish after a 196-day layoff and he should strip fitter here slightly down in grade.

OUTBOX is a useful Class 2 (or lower) handicapper, but a win and two places from 14 efforts at class1 speaks for itself, as does a current losing streak of eleven races stretching back a week shy of two years.

QUICKTHORN stays all day, as shown when he landed the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup here in August of last year, finishing 14 lengths clear after racing 2m½f. He hasn't quite hit those heights since, but was only three lengths down over course and distance in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup last month, despite being hampered late on and coming off a 31-week absence. Like Israr, should come on for the run and also down further in grade.

RHYTHMIC INTENT has won just 4 of 29 so far and was only 4th of 8 at Ascot last time out. Admittedly he wasn't beaten by far, but that was a Class 3 handicap, he's winless in six and now makes a Class 1 debut. Surely he's only here to try and beat a couple for some prize money or to keep stable mate Quinault (runs in the 3.45 race) company in the van.

CHING SHIH gets a 5lb allowance as one of two 4yo fillies in the race and she won a Class 4 Novice event on her second outing way back in October 2021. Only four races since then, all at Class 1 (a Gr 3 followed by 3 x Listed) and she's never looked like winning although she did stay on well last time out when upped in trip to 1m4f, finishing 3rd of 9 and might (I did say might) actually benefit from another two furlongs here (siblings are 12 from 87 over 1m5f to 1m7f on the Flat over the last three seasons), but not one you'd expect to be winning here.

DIVINE JEWEL is like, most Frankel offspring, useful and consistent. She hasn't been out of the first three home in any of her six starts so far (232122), but that's all at Classes 4 & 5 (C5 for the sole win) and you've got to expect this to be far too tough. I'd say she's the worst of the bunch, but her 5lb weight allowance might drag her into the pack.

At this point, I'd be inclined to agree with the bookies about it being a two-horse race, but let's see if Instant Expert can give us a way in...

...where the favourites don't actually stand out too much. Israr lacks relevant experience and Quickthorn has just about done enough to avoid being in the red and it's top weight Roberto Escobarr who looks best suited if it wasn't for the weight penalty for his LTO success, whilst the place stats make all of them look better apart from poor Ching Shih...

As a statistician, I struggle with the concept of arguing against proven data, but sometimes (rarely), I have to ask myself to check twice and this is one of those occasions. Check out the draw data for races here at York over 1m4f and beyond on good to firm ground...

Surely there can't be that much of an advantage in being drawn highest in a small field over such long races? Yet even the stall-by-stall analysis says there is...

...suggesting that three of the outsiders, Ching Shih, Rhythmic Intent and Outbox might have some form of advantage here. This might sound dangerous/controversial, but I'm exercising my own judgement/interpretation here and I'm ignoring that data, because even if that trio are helped by the draw, I don't think they're good enough to make full use of it! Personally, I think race tactics (ie pace) and actually class/ability will come to the forefront here.

Regarding pace, those 38 races above don't really show a pace bias either (wow, I'm not getting much help from the data today!), aside from saying that racing just behind the leader(s) haven't fared as well as other running styles, which based on the following...

...might put Israr at a disadvantage behind Quickthorn.

Summary

Sadly, at this point I'm going to tell you what you probably already know from my opening gambit that...it's a two-horse race here between Israr and Quickthorn with Roberto Escobarr not quite as good as them, but much better than the rest...and that's about the sum of it. Of the favs, I prefer the 15/8 Quickthorn over the 7/4 Israr, but it's not a race I'd want to throw much money at.

Roberto should grab third, unless the weight gets to him and with Ching Shih carrying some 10lbs less, she might be the one who comes from the back to challenge him. That said, we're only getting paid on two places here, so maybe it's a "grab a brew and put your feet up" kind of race after all.

Have a great weekend everyone and Happy Fathers Day to all of you dads.

Racing Insights, Friday 16/06/23

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one 'possible'...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 York
  • 6.10 Fontwell
  • 6.15 Fairyhouse
  • 6.35 Cork
  • 7.45 Cork
  • 7.50 Goodwood

...and we'll head to the Knavesmire for the first from the 'free' list, the 1.50 York, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap for apprentice jockeys. The trip is a left-handed 1m2½f on good to firm ground, that will be a little slower in places and here's how they'll line up...

Steady improver Westernesse was a winner last time out, as were Menelaus and Showmedemoney, but Jean Baptiste, Aqwaam, Highwaygrey and Poet's Dawn are winless in 10, 6, 7 & 5 races respectively.

Plenty of class movers here, as only Pledge of Honour & raced at Class 4 LTO. Highwaygrey drops down two classes here, whilst Jean Baptiste, Solanna & Poet's Dream are all down 1. Our trio of LTO winners, Westernesse, Menelaus & Showmedemoney are all up a level, as is bottom weight Dougies Dream despite three poor efforts at Class 5 in the last couple of months.

Menelaus wears a visor for the first time today and we should have no rustiness issues here, with all ten having raced in the last five weeks, with Menelaus seen most recently when winning at Thirsk 11 days ago, getting off the mark at the tenth time of asking.

That win was over a mile, so he's one of just four (inc Westernesse, Aqwaam & Dougies Dream) yet to win over a similar trip to this one, whilst Poet's Dawn is the only previous York winner, albeit over 1m1f three years ago!

That win is shown below on a fairly sad-looking Instant Expert graphic that contains many warning bells...

...and those warnings are..

  • GOING - Jean Baptiste & Poet's Dawn
  • CLASS - Pledge of Honour & Aqwaam (note that Jean Baptiste has won a Class 2 and that Pledge of Honour, Highwaygrey & Poet's Dream have won at Class 3)
  • COURSE - Despite his win here, Poet's Dawn is just 1 from 14 at this venue and that's not good enough
  • DISTANCE - Jean Baptiste & Poet's Dawn
  • WEIGHT - Solanna is 10lbs higher than his win two starts ago and 15lbs higher than his win three starts ago, but he is down in class and by 2lbs from LTO.

Based on everything to this point, I going to omit Jean Baptiste, Poet's Dawn and Dougies Dream before I even look at the field's place stats...

...where Aqwaam looks weak at Class 4 and Highwaygrey looks a steady performer, but there's nothing here that says back or dismiss to any of them yet.

Our Draw Analyser says that past similar races ie

...don't actually show a massive draw bias and they really shouldn't over 10.5 furlongs if truth be told, but stalls 3 & 7 have fared (abnormally?) well...

...so that might offer a little encouragement to the likes of Solanna and Aqwaam, whilst running those 80 races above through our Pace Analyser, it would seem that the best approach here would be to get tucked in behind the leader(s) in a prominent position...

Hold-up types fare next best to prominent runners, but leaders have struggled to see the job out to a satisfactory conclusion, which might not bode well for likely front-runner Showmedemoney...

...whilst Highwaygrey and Pledge of Honour would appear to be the ones being waited with.

Summary

The one ticking most boxes for me so far is Westernesse, whose form of 2223231 over the last year has shown steady improvement, culminating in a first win at Pontefract recently. the way he stayed on that day suggests that the extra furlong or so here should be right up his street and although he's the early (only bet365 were open at 4.15) 3/1 favourite, he should be the one to beat here, especially as the second and third from his win have both won at Class 4 since and although he's up 3lbs, his jockey Mark Winn (in decent nick too at 7 from 24 over the last fortnight) takes the same amount off, so it's Westernesse for me today.

As for the placers, you can make a case for most of  the six of them and I think Menelaus is probably the 'best of the rest' and handy for forecast purposes, but definitely too short for me to go E/W at 7/2! E/W options for me here would probably end up being runners like Pledge of Honour and/or Highwaygrey at 9's and 12's respectively.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/06/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.20 Newbury
  • 2.50 Newbury
  • 4.30 Newbury
  • 5.10 Yarmouth
  • 5.50 Worcester
  • 7.40 Haydock

...from which, we'll look at the 4.30 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Only Shobiz won last time out and since making the frame without winning his first five races, has now won three from seven. Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike also have at least one win in their recent form-line.  Shobiz also benefits from a drop in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous, whilst Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class. Dakota Power actually drops two classes for his handicap debut some 558 days after his last outing when last home of three at Wolverhampton, making this also his turf debut!

Elsewhere Capote's Dream adds a first-time tongue to go with his cheekpieces, American Star wears blinkers for the second time and it's a third run in cheekpieces for Magnificence, who is the only one in the field yet to win at this type of trip. American Star has won here over 7f, whilst Shobiz won over course and distance last time out.

All bar the returning Dakota Power have raced in the last two months with Magnificence having ran as recently as last Friday, when a half length runner-up at Haydock. He goes off the same mark here, which according to Instant Expert is 3lbs higher than his last win and the weights show three runners well below their last winning marks...

I've left the above as Flat and A/W just to show turf debutant Dakota Power's decent A/W stats, but when we look at just Flat records...

...the ones of immediate interest would be American Star, Shobiz, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse in card order. Jack's Point hasn't fared well at this trip with 1 win from 9, but he is only 1 from 26 on the Flat overall, so he'd not be one to hang your hat on anyway. Elsewhere, there are no real alarms ringing and there's not much above to cause me to discard any others just yet.

In terms of draw stats, the bare data suggest those drawn lowest would have the upper hand...

...but there really should be too much of a draw bias over a straight 6f here and the PRB data suggests a more even spread of results...

There is a slight drop off for stall 10 in the 10-runner races, but otherwise, there's not a great deal of difference between 'best' and 'worst' stalls 2 and 9, which then suggests that as with many straight sixes on decent ground, it'll all be about pace but those races used above for the draw data aren't entirely conclusive, but you don't want to be backing a hold-up horse if you've ideas about winning here...

Leaders tend to hang on for a place, but only 29.2% of those making the frame go on to win and it's a similar return for prominent running placers, but almost 70% of those making the frame from mid-division go on to win, whilst again hold-up horses fare poorly. Based on how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...you'd have concerns about Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse trying to make up ground in what might well be a falsely-run race. American Star and Dakota Power might be the ones to take it on, whilst it could well be Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence in that prized mid-division position.

Summary

From above, the positives... Shobiz won last time out; Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike all have a fairly recent win on their form lines. Shobiz drops in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous. American Star is a course winner over 7 and Shobiz has own over track and trip. Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence might get an advantage racing in mid-division.

The negatives... American Star, Capote's Dream, Jack's Point and Magnificence are without a recent win. Dakota Power hasn't raced on turf before and hasn't raced for a very longtime. Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class and the former is the only one without a win at this trip, whilst Jack's Point has a really poor Flat record. Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse look like struggling from a hold-up position.

And from all that, Shobiz is the one whose positives far outweigh any possible negatives, which would explain why he's the early 5/4 favourite. I'm not really a fan of backing horses at that kind of price, but he really should be winning this quite cosily. Second favourite Magnificence ran well last week off today's mark, but is up in class and has been out of sorts for a long time.

Only three horses, aside from Shobiz emerge from the analysis slightly in credit after taking the negatives from the positives and they are American Star, Treacherous and Strike. If i'm honest, I don't see of them really challenging the winner, but all have a shout of making the frame, if things fall their way, of course.

Treacherous is too short to go E/W at 11/2, but American Star (12/1) & Strike (14/1) might be worth a small punt here.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 14/06/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.40 Newton Abbot
  • 4.10 Newton Abbot
  • 4.50 Haydock
  • 5.00 Yarmouth
  • 8.30 Limerick

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and the first of the two jumps contests looks the best on paper of all the featured races, so we're off to Devon for the 3.40 Newton Abbot, a 7-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m½f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

Top weight Light n Strike and bottom weight Elios D'or both won last time out, Clear The Runway has won five of his last six, but Geronimo's apparent good run of results all came in 2 and 3-runner races! Kauto The King won this race last year and won again next time out, but hasn't won any of seven since.

Geronimo is up a level here, as is Elios D'or and whilst it looks like Noahthirtytwored is up three classes here, that's from an A/W outing, but he's still up two grades here, as is Kauto the King, whilst Magic Saint really is up three classes.

Last year's winner Kauto The King wears cheekpieces for the first-time and it's a debut in blinkers for Magic Saint today in a field where all seven have already won over a similar trip and Noahthirtytwored joins Kauto The King as a course and distance winner.

Most of these have raced in the last three weeks, but it's five weeks rest for Geronimo which shouldn't be an issue, but Clear The Runway might well need the run on his first outing for almost eight months.

Instant Expert's NH stats say that all bar one have already won a chase on similar going to today and that four of the field are previous Class 2 chase winners...

...and this points towards Light n Strike, Clear The Runway, Geronimo and Kauto The King has being best suited to the task, whilst the place stats bring Elios D'or into the equation...

I wouldn't rule any of them out just on those two graphics, but I want to look at a couple of interesting weight differences. Magic Saint did indeed win a Class 2 handicap chase off 152 at Cheltenham back in November 2020 and was plying his trade at Gr 3 until Jan '22 before he went hunter chasing this year. He did win off 137 in March, so is still technically 10lbs below his last win. As for Noahthirtytwored, he did win relatively recently off 109 and the subsequent 13lb rise seems excessive.

Kauto The King won this last year and the report of the race reads..."raced in 3rd, awkward and pushed along after 9th, went 2nd 4 out, ridden before 2 out, led last, driven out to win by 1.5 lengths"... which is pretty congruent with what our Pace Analysis suggests...

Those racing furthest forward have the best chances of winning/placing and those chances diminish more the further down the field you position yourself, which might not be the best news for the likes of Noahthirtytwored...

...although he did lead last time out.

Summary

If truth be told, there's no real standout performer here and it might well be a process of elimination.

From the racecard, I've doubts about Magic Saint, Noahthirtytwored and Kauto the King stepping up two classes or more after defeats. Clear The Runway might need a run and was well beaten last time out. Geronimo's better runs have come in really small fields and Kauto The King is winless in seven.

Instant Expert wasn't great for Magic Saint, Noahthirtytwored and Elios D'or as potential winners, although the latter has good place numbers. Noahthirtytwored also seemed up against it on weight, but Magic Saint has won off far higher marks than this one.

And when it came to pace, none of them are out and out hold up types, so I wouldn't actually be too concerned about any of them from that perspective.

Now I've written the above, the only one I've no real qualms with looks like top weight and LTO winner Light n Strike, which is probably why he's the 5/2 favourite here. The others with fewer red marks by their names on my jotter are Geronimo and Elios D'Or and one of those pair might well make the frame too. The former will be more attractively priced, of course, but the latter is a regular placer. Elsewhere, Magic Saint would be a huge danger if running to the levels he's capable of, but something just doesn't seem right with him.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 13/06/23

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.50 Brighton
  • 2.10 Salisbury
  • 2.30 Southwell
  • 3.00 Southwell
  • 4.40 Salisbury
  • 5.10 Salisbury

...and the highest rated from those two sets of races is the last of the free ones, the 5.10 Salisbury, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Three of these (Spirit of the Bay, Alba Longa & Spring Fever all won last time out, whilst Haughty is the only maiden in the field, albeit off just five starts. half of the field ran at this Class 4 level last time out, but Timeless Melody drops in from Class 2 and haughty is down one class, whilst Alba Longa and Spring fever both step up one level.

In a fairly inexperienced field, half of them (Timeless Melody, Alba Longa, Spring Fever & Gentle Whinny) run in handicap company for just the second time and none of the field have won here at Brighton before. That said, only Totnes has actually been here before! Spirit of the Bay, Spring Fever and Dayzee have at least won over this trip.

Bottom weight Haughty might need the run as she comes off a nine-month break, but her rivals have all race at least once this term. We''re not getting too much from Instant Expert today, as the field only have 51 previous outings between them and top weight Spirit of the Bay accounts for 21 of those races, but let's see what data we do have...

...all fairly self-explanatory and the one catching my eye is Spirit of the Bay, especially from a place perspective. She's top weight and drawn second widest in stall 7 and whilst the draw stats suggest those drawn lowest would fare best, the raw data actually says there's not really a massive bias at play here...

...and that stall 7 has done as well as any other berthing...

So, it's not a long race and the ground is quick with no real draw bias, so PACE might well be the key here and from those races above that we used for the draw data, we see that...

...the further forward you race, the better your chances of winning/making the frame, which based on this field's more recent efforts...

...is the fly in Spirit of the Bay's ointment and the ones best off here are probably the first four named.

Summary

Largely inexperienced horses with little relevant race data. The draw is unlikely to affect the race and there's not actually that much pace early on. Spring Fever looks the most likely winner on form/pace, but at odds of 7/4 to 15/8, I'm not really interested in backing her.

Up to the pace section, I was looking to back Spirit of the Bay to make the frame but the pace stats are troubling. That said, she ran really well at Haydock last time and easily has the best place stats in this field. had she been in 8/1 to 11/1 kind of price, I'd probably have left her alone, based on pace as she might need the contest to fall apart ahead of her, but at 14/1 I've been tempted into an E/W tickle.

Racing Insights, Monday 12/06/23

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.30 Lingfield
  • 7.00 Pontefract
  • 7.30 Pontefract
  • 8.10 Windsor
  • 8.40 Windsor

...and on paper, if nothing else, the first of our two Yorkshire races looks the best of the five freebies, so I'm heading about 40 miles East of my house for the 7.00 Pontefract, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed mile and a half on good to firm ground...

The top two in the weights, Matchless and La Pulga both won last time out, as did Carrilgillihy, whilst only Real Terms, Glasses Up and Hezmie are winless in five or more.

None of the field raced at Class 3 LTO, with only top weight Matchless dropping in class. His eight rivals are all up one or two classes here with Carrilgillihy, Cmon Kenny and the out of form Hezmie the ones moving up from Class 5.

Carrilgillihy is the only one to have won at Ponty before and he's 4 from 4 at the tack including 3 over course and distance. Matchless, Zealandia and Real terms have at least won ove rthe trip before now.

The entire field have raced in the last four weeks with La Pulga rested for just four days after a convincing win over 1m5f at Hamilton last week and we've no new headgear/equipment etc to discuss. In fact, Zealandia wears cheekpieces for the third time and he's the only with any headgear in a field that, according to Instant Expert, contains half a dozen good to firm winners and just three former Class 3 victors...

Although there's not a great deal of green there, the only real worry is that 2/20 Class 3 record for Glasses Up. Mind you, he is on a 23-rce losing strak, so he's unlikely to be a player here over a track/trip that doesn't have as big a draw bias as you'd initially think...

Stall 5 has done particularly (but anomalously) well, but  and draw in the first seven stalls would be fine. This, of course, isn't great news for Zealandia & Matchless and it's the lower half of the draw (1-5) that have filled the places most often, but here at Ponty, feature of the day, PACE, often rules the race and from those races above...

...and although hold-up horses have almost won their fair share of races, the front half of the pack is where you'd want to be and based on this field's recent running styles, this is where I'd draw my line on PACE...

And when we combine both pace and draw stats and put them on our heat map, we get...

Summary

From the above data, it's Carrigillihy for me here today. He won last time out and is only up 3lbs, he's 4 from 4 here (inc 3 at C&D) and shows up best on pace/draw. He's currently 7/1 with a few firms and that looks massive and could even be an E/W option, especially with Sky who are paying four places again.

As for the places, they could well go to La Pulga (10/3 fav) and Matchless (13/2), the latter would be shorter if he had a better draw, having won LTO but now dropping in class, he could be dangerous here.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 10/06/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

..plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.55 Punchestown
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 4.00 Bangor
  • 5.00 Beverley
  • 6.00 Punchestown
  • 7.30 Chepstow

...and from all the above, we have one from the TJC Report running in one of our free races, so let's head to North Wales where local hero Donald McCain and his 8 yr old Heartbreak Kid are likely to be popular in the 4.00 Bangor, a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase taking in 15 fences over a left-handed 2m4½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

Featured horse Heartbreak Kid is our only LTO winner, having broken a 7-race losing spell by winning here over course and distance three weeks ago. Norley has won two of his last three and is 3 from 6 and Midnight Jewel has won 6 of his last 12, whilst Joly Maker is 3 from 8, but Ridgeway has won just one of his last nine. Yggdrasil and Fire Away, however are winless in six and seven respectively.

Yggdrasil makes a first appearance for David Pipe just seven weeks after his final outing for Jane Williams and he wears blinkers for the first time too. That seven week break is the longest of all the runners here with the remainder having raced in the last 12 to 26 days.

Only Norley, Fire Away and Ridgeway have yet to win here over course and distance, but the first two of that trio have at least won over a similar trip in the past. Instant Expert then tells me that only Yggdrasil is winless in good ground NH contests, albeit from just two efforts and we learn that all of them have won at least one Class 4 contest (Yggdrasil and Fire Away have both won at C3 too)...

Fire Away's recent poor form is reflected by a 17lb drop in weight from his last win and although Heartbreak Kid is up 5lbs from his recent win here, he's still 4lbs lower than his Uttoxeter victory last year and both Norley and Midnight Jewel have greater gaps back to their last winning mark that the kid's 5lbs.

Joly Maker's form on good ground and at Class 4 is wretched at 2/21 and 1/15 and his sole Class 4 win came on heavy ground, although that was only three starts ago. Midnight Jewel's best form has been at Class 5, but his record under today's 3lb claimer Lilly Pinchin reads 1211F24, so they clearly get on well.

The above data is for all NH races, so let's have quick look at their chasing records...

...where there are some really good numbers, especially from Heartbreak Kid and Midnight Jewel. Only the going blots the record of Yggdrasil and Norley and these four look like the main contenders here and three of them look like they'll be the ones setting the tone of the race...

...whilst Norley will be waited with. That said, the approach to a contest like this rarely boils down to pace, as there's little bias if any at play in this type of contest...

I know it looks like mid-div runners do really badly, but the sample size is so small that had two more runners won, they'd be at 17.4% up with the others, so I'm not ruling any out here on pace, but I am purely focusing on the four better runners from Instant Expert.

Summary

I've already cast Fire Away, Ridgeway and Joly Maker aside for reasons that will have become obvious earlier on, but I need to jettison one of my shortlist to leave me with my 1-2-3 and the unlucky one here is going to be Yggdrasil. He's sure to improve under David Pipe, but that might take a little more time and his form is the worst of my final four, so my top three are (alphabetically) Heartbreak Kid, Midnight Jewel & Norley.

Heartbreak Kid won LTO after a cold spell and although up 5lbs is still 4lbs lower than a win from last year. He won by 6 lengths here over course and distance LTO and that could have been a much bigger margin, such was the way he put the race to bed late on. Trainer & Jockey have excellent individual and joint records here and that C&D win will have given the horse vital experience.

Midnight Jewel is 211F2 over fences and was contesting the lead at the last when he fell. He's solid at this level and gets on really well with today's jockey. Had a pipe-opener over hurdles recently after a break of 196 days and should be fighting fit here today.

Norley won back to back Class 4 handicaps over similar trips to this one inside ten days in April, one over hurdles and then his first chase success. That got him walloped with a 9lb rise next/last time out, when he was only 3rd of 5 here over course and distance three weeks ago, when 10.75 lengths behind Heartbreak Kid.

The Kid beat Norley last time out by almost 11 lengths and although Norley is now 6lbs better off, I don't see him overturning that result, especially as the winner seemed to have plenty in hand. Midnight Jewel is likely to make this more of a contest, though and I don't see there being too much between him and Heartbreak Kid, so they'd be my 1-2 with Norley third best of the trio.

Heartbreak Kid should be winning this, but if he's not on his game like he wasn't for the fifteen months between his last two wins, incurring some heavy losses along the way, he could get turned over here. From the limited odds available at 4.45pm on Friday, Heartbreak Kid was the 15/8 favourite with Bet365 offering 9/2 against Midnight Jewel and I don't think the horses are that far apart, so whilst the Kid should win, the value call here is Midnight Jewel.

Racing Insights, Friday 09/06/23

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for this Friday...

...but thankfully I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.50 Market Rasen
  • 3.10 Thirsk
  • 4.55 Bath
  • 6.15 Clonmel
  • 7.35 Goodwood
  • 8.10 Goodwood

...and the first of those 'free' races looks the best standard on paper, so we're off to Lincolnshire for the 2.50 Market Rasen, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m5½f (after a +216 yard rail adjustment!) on good ground...

As ever, I'll approach this in the same way I taught my children to solve maths problems : list the details you already know! And for us that means taking the data presented to us on the racecard, starting with FORM...

...where King Alexander comes here seeking a hat-trick, whilst Mullinaree completed that feat last time out and now seeks a fourth win on the bounce. Elsewhere Hang In There has 5 wins and two runner-up finishes from his last nine runs and only three (Luttrell Lad, Celestial Horizon and Didtheyleaveuoutto) are on long losing runs, having lost their last 11, 7 and 16 races respectively!

The next thing I consider is CLASS and only four of these (Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds, Impulsive One & Luttrell Lad) raced at this Class 2 level LTO witht he first named a runner-up at Aintree in a better race than this. Of the other seven, only The Wounded Knee drops in class, after being pulled up in a Grade 2 Novice hurdle at Kelso three months ago, whilst Celestial Horizon, Didtheyleaveuoutto and Sacre Coeur all step up from Class 3 and with Celestial Horizon and Didtheyleaveuoutto both being on lengthy losing runs, it's tough to see the step up in class helping them here. Mind you, it could be worse, because King Alexander, Mullinaree and Runswick Bay are all up two classes, but at least that first pair are in good form.

At this point, I then like to check if there's ANYTHING NEW going on with the runners that might affect their performance and there's a fair bit here, as Impulsive One, The Wounded Knee and Sacre Coeur are all making debuts for their new yards and it'll be just the second handicap outing for The Wounded Knee, as it will be for King Alexander, who is 2 from 2 since a wind op, a fact that will hearten connections of Sacre Coeur and Runswick bay as those horses now run for the first time since their own surgeries. Slightly less invasive for Luttrell Lad, though, as he just has a first-time tongue tie in place.

COURSE/DISTANCE form is very important too and Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds and Luttrell Lad have all won won here before (in a 2m6½f chase, 2m5f hurdle and a 2m1f bumper respectively), whilst Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds, Impulsive One, King Alexander and Runswick Bay have all won over a similar trip to this one.

And the last thing I tend to look at on the racecard is the number of DAYS SINCE LAST RUN, as we don't really want rusty horses coming off long layoffs or those turned back out too quickly and we thankfully have neither here. Sacre Coeur and The Wounded Knee have been rested for 99 and 97 days respectively, but that's not excessive, whilst all their rival have had at least a couple of weeks' rest to freshen up.

I would then turn to the excellent INSTANT EXPERT feature for some some more data and as you'll see below, some of these have got some decent NH numbers behind them and Sacre Coeur is the only one yet to win on good ground (her only win was on soft ground three starts ago). Five of this field have already won a Class 2 contest (six have actually won at Class 1!) and only Celestial Horizon has yet to score over a trip of 2m4f to 2m6f...

...and the traffic light system used above should be pretty self-explanatory, but the rating column might not. Essentially T =  today's official rating ie a horse's mark and L is the runner's last winning mark and the standout figure is that 21lb difference for The Wounded Knee, who won a Class 4 handicap hurdle at Perth off a mark of 108 nine months ago, but is now rated at 129, which looks punitive to me. Didtheyleaveuoutto may have won twice at this grade, but a 20% strike rate isn't good and allied to his recent poor form and a 1in 7 record at similar trips, you'd be brave to back him here.

Based on everything I've put down so far, these are now the runners that I'd want to choose from...

...and I'd then focus on handicap hurdle form...

...and eliminate Runswick Bay from my list. The in-form pair of King Alexander and Mullinaree are untried at class/trip, as both step up in grade here and whilst they're definite contenders here, it's the top pair on the card catching the eye from Instant Expert. From here, we normally then look at the draw, the pace stats and how they work together, but there is no draw in an NH contest, of course, so let's head directly to the PACE data we hold under in our Pace Analyser tool...

...which says that similar races here in the past have been most beneficial to front-runners and that blindly backing known front-runners could turn a profit. Known hold-up types are generally to be avoided here and based off recent outings this wouldn't seem to apply to my 'final five'...

Summary

King Alexander, Mullinaree and Hang In There bring the best form to the table, but the first pair are both up two grades, whilst the latter has scored at both track and trip, albeit on different days! Hang In There also caught the eye on Instant Expert, along with Earlofthecotswolds and it is this pair who seem best suited by the pace profile required here. All of which suggests that Impulsive One is the most vulnerable of my five and that I prefer Hang In There and Earlofthecotswolds over the LTO winners King Alexander and Mullinaree.

Hang In There makes more appeal to me as the winner here based on recent form and the 6/1 offered by Hills at 4.45pm looks a bit big, so I'd take that. Earlofthecotswolds is 15/2, which is probably about right and is borderline E/W territory for me, but he has a great chance of making the frame and if I had to choose between King Alexander and Mullinaree, I'd probably side with the former, King Alexander, who is the early 11/4 fav. His win LTO was more impressive than Mullinaree's and the latter is now worse off at the weights. I'm leaving him out of my 1-2-3, but I reckon he won't be far away.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 08/06/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.50 Ffos Las
  • 3.25 Ffos Las
  • 5.15 Hamilton
  • 6.30 Leopardstown
  • 8.50 Chelmsford

...from which, we're off to the Speedway in Essex for the 8.50 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard going polytrack...

My initial reaction was that this might well be a three-horse race between (alphabetically at this stage, of course!) Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested, but let's see if the data we have at our disposal backs up or disproves my gut feeling.

The last named of my trio is the only LTO winner in the field and has two wins and a place from her last three outings, as does my first-named Anificas Beauty, Miss Sarajevo was a winner five starts ago, but the remainder are winless in at least five or even eleven in the case of maiden Topo Chico.

Lightly raced Bell Song has been third in each of her last two starts and as one of five (plus Invested, Miss Sarjevo, Kynsa & Topo Chico) three year olds in the race, she'll get a useful 10lb weight allowance here. All bar Exigency (who drops down a class) ran at this level last time out, so they should now know what to expect, but it is a first handicap run for both Bell Song & Kynsa and just a second for Invested after scoring on hcp debut just over five weeks ago and she now wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Anificas Beauty and Miss Sarajevo have both won over course and distance, whilst the only other two previous course winners are also the only other 7f winners with Nikki's Girl wining over 6f here and then over 7f at Leicester and Lingfield (AW), whilst Invested also won here over 6f and was a 7f winner at Yarmouth last time out.

The afore-mentioned Nikki's Girl might well need the run here as she turns out for the first time since mid-October, but all her rivals have been seen in the last six weeks.

Feature of the day Instant Expert shows two of my chosen trio in a very good light, but Bell Song is a three-race maiden, despite making the frame twice in April, so her win line is all red, as it is for half of the field...

That might initially ring a few alarm bells, notably for Kodias Sangarius (class), Nikki's Girl (class), Hot Chesnut (class/distance) and Topo Chico (class/distance), but Anificas Beauty & Invested do catch the eye, as does Miss Sarajevo in fairness. The place stats will undoubtedly show some of these in a better light, because i already know that bottom-weight Topo Chico is better than her win stats might suggest with six places from her nine A/W starts...

...from which, I'd only really be interested in the following...

Those numbers speak for themselves and I won't patronise you by going through them here. Interestingly, we have two low drawn runners in Invested and Topo Chico plus the four widest/highest drawn of all, so i need to dig out the draw stats to see if any of the half-dozen might be afforded an advantage from the off...

But that's not as clear cut as it might at first seem, because if we isolate the individual stalls...

...the stats for stall 2 are an anomaly in my opinion and without them in the data, the bias is far less pronounced and it's really the pace aspect of this race that will decide the winner in my opinion. Chelmsford is now well known as a front-runners paradise and when we look at the pace profiles of the horses that won those races above in the draw analyisis...

...the win percentages rise almost exponentially, the further forward your horse runs. Hold-up horses fare really badly from both win and place perspectives, mid-division runners win almost twice as often as them and prominent runners slightly more than twice the rate of the mid-divs with leaders scoring almost twice as often as the prominent runners themselves. At other tracks, an IV of 1.41 scored here by the prominent runners would be enough for top ranking, but such is the low strike rate further back, that's not the case here.

So, who might lead them out? Well, according to the field's last few runs...

...I'd say that Anifica's Beauty may try to make all, chased by Invested...

, whilst there's not much between the other four of the shortlisted six...

Summary

I started with three runners who I thought would be the main protagonists ie Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested and of those, Anificas Beauty and Invested have both been very strong throughout the various stages of analysis and with their pace profiles in particular, they're going to be my 1-2.

Bell Song is probably the best of the other shortlisted horses, but you could easily make a case for the other three to steal third spot from the inexperienced 3yr old. Of my 1-2, I'm still along the lines of 'pace wins the race' and so it's Anificas Beauty over Invested here for me.

Sadly (or reassuringly, depending on the state of your glass) the bookies agree with me and have my trio of Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested at 4/1, 4/1 and 7/2 respectively with no other runner shorter than 11/1! So I'll take Anificas Beauty over Invested as my 1-2. Bell Song should complete the tricast/trifecta, but for an E/W option, Topo Chico certainly makes the frame on a regualr basis, she receives weight all round and has a 3lb claimer on board, which makes her a very interesting option at 14/1 E/W with Bet365, as of 5.05pm.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 07/06/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.00 Newbury
  • 2.35 Newbury
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 6.30 Curragh
  • 7.10 Ripon
  • 8.00 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

The best of the free/TS report races seems to be the one featuring William Haggas' Ecucator on the All-Weather and whilst the field is a bit bigger than I'm generally comfortable with, there's always the prospect of a decent E/W bet with most bookies paying 4 places (Sky go 5, of course!) in the 8.25 Kempton, a 14-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

Second Slip is our only LTO winner, but he hasn't raced in over 21months and might be a little rusty here, as might Winterwatch, Enthrallment, Graphite and Moving Lights after respective breaks of 231, 244, 247 and 312 days, as they take on nine others who have all been seen in the last six weeks.

Form-wise, Educator, Tashi, Winterwatch, Enthrallment and Dal Mallart all made the frame on their last outing, whilst of the 14-strong field only Savvy Knight and Tashi are winless in seven (or 11 in Tashi's case!)

Ten of the field ran at this level when last seen with Dal Mallart stepping up from Class 4 and top-weight Stay Well, Moving Light and Celtic Art all coming down from Class 2. Second Slip had wind surgery during his long lay-off and now ears a tongue-tie for the first time and this will be Enthrallment's first run for Kevin de Foy after leaving Ireland and Dermot Weld behind.

Winterwatch has won here over two miles (on his last A/W run) and over this trip at Catterick, whilst Second Slip, Graphite Savvy Knight, Celtic Art and Neandra also have 1m4f successes under their belts, whilst our two other former course winners, Stay Well and Moving Light have both scored here over track & trip.

Instant Expert then adds to those stats by showing that nine have already raced on standard to slow surfaces, producing wins for four of them and we also have six Class 3 winners on Flat/AW...

The top two on the card are the ones initially catching the eye here, but Winterwatch's two going wins is interesting too and I suspect we'll learn more from the place data...

...from which, I think I want to focus on...

I'm aware that such a brutal cut early on might have cost me the winner or a placer, but in these bigger fields, I only really want horses with relevant past form. This six are spread across the track in stalls 2, 3, 4, 8, 10 & 12 on a track/trip with no huge discernible draw bias...

...although some of the lower drawn horses have fared best...

...which would be better news for Stay Well than it would be for say, Winterwatch.  And as regard for pace, there's very little between the six based on their last four outings...

.and with the whole field's pace scores looking like this...

...we're likely to get a falsely-run race over a course and distance where those brave enough to take it on have done well in the past...

Summary

I pick these races 'blind' and do the analysis as I go along, so I never know where we're going to end up and here we've ended up in the state of inconclusive!  The only LTO winner hasn't run for ages and most of these have a fairly recent win. Instant Expert gave me a shortlist of six based on place form and pace/draw didn't really help us at, so in these cases, you either walk away (smart move) or you use that unquantifiable extra factor : 'gut feeling'

My gut feeling tells me that I want to be with Stay Well and Winterwatch depending on price and that Moving Light from the Shortlist might go off and set the pace and hope to hold on for a top four finish. I'll be back later (just after 3pm now)when there are some odds to look at.

Now approaching 4.30pm and we've got odds from Hills, who have installed Stay Well as the 9/2 favourite and whilst I think he could be the one, I'm not really interested at that price. Winterwatch and Moving Light, however, are at 9's and 12's respectively and could be the E/W play(s) here.

Educator from the TS report is 2nd fav, but has never raced on the A/W, so 11/2 is a bit short there for me, but 8/1 is interesting about the LTO winner Second Slip. Yeah, he's been away for a good while, but his A/W form reads 3121 so he could be another candidate for the frame.

This race could get very interesting in the closing stages, but it's not one to hang your hat (or your wallet!) on.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 06/06/23

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...but none of those really stand out, aside from two taking each other on at Leicester.. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.30 Leicester
  • 5.20 Southwell
  • 6.45 Wetherby
  • 7.35 Lingfield

...and as luck would have it, The Shortlist race from Leicester is on our 'free' list, so it'd be rude not to look at the 3.30 Leicester after all! It's a 9-runner (poss E/W options?), Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

Thapa VC is the only LTO winner here, but Maxi Boy, Ernie's Valentine, Makeen, Touchwood and Royal Musketeer all recorded top=three finishes. Thapa VC is 2 from 3 and the only one in the field with a win from their last five outings and is denoted as a fast finisher, but he's also our only class riser.

The top five on the card are all down in class by at least one grade with Golden Spice and Above both dropping down two levels and the former runs for the first time since a wind op, whilst the other Shortlist horse, Amber Island wears first-time cheekpieces and these two from the Shortlist are the only females in the race.

All bar two of the field have raced in the past three weeks, but Golden Spice has had a three month break, whilst Maxi Boy hasn't been seen since mid-September 2021 and may well need the run. Above, Makeen, Thapa VC and Royal Musketeer have all won over 7f elsewhere, but our shortlist horses, Golden Spice & Amber Island are both course and distance winners; Ernie's Valentine has also won here, landing a 5f novice event on debut two years ago.

In addition to the above, Instant Expert tells us that all bar Golden Spice and Above have won on good to firm and that we've five previous Class 4 turf winners...

Maxi Boy who might need the run has yet to win at this trip and Above would prefer to be running on the All-Weather. Makeen's Class 4 form probably looks better from a place perspective, but Royal Musketeer just really looks up against it today. Let's check those place stats, because they suggest that the majority of these would be entitled to at least challenge for a place in the frame...

...Royal Musketeer aside, that is! A slight nagging doubt re: Golden Spice on good to firm ground, but there are some pretty solid place stats here for a race that has previously suited those draw lowest...

...which is another tick for 'form horse' Thapa VC. Those races highlighted above have not only favoured those drawn lowest, but also those racing most prominently...

Unfortunately for Thapa VC, his last four runs suggest that he's likely to be waited with...

...and his last two wins have both been from the back over 7f. He is, however, noted as a fast finisher and closed in quickly enough to win on good to fork last time out, so although his pace profile isn't ideal, he could still win. Conversely Golden Spice looks to have the 'best' pace makeup here, but runs from the widest stall, so she's in a similar dilemma to Thapa VC.

The best pace/draw combination here over 7f at Leicester on good to form ground has actually been a low drawn, mid-divisional runner...

so that's not a million miles from where we've got Thapa VC...

...but Amber Island scores well here in a race where the pace/draw hasn't really benefited any of them.

Summary

There's a lack of pace here and this could lead to a falsely run race with runners waiting for others to make a move and if this happens, it will play right into the hands of the fast finishing Thapa VC. He's won two of his last three, he's won each of his last two over 7f and won both from the back, so connections must be satisfied with his turn of pace late on. He's the only one of the field with any recent winning form and I think he's the one for me here.

He's currently priced at 11/2 with both Hills & Bet365, which seems fair to me. As for the placers, I don't really fancy the shortlist horses Golden Spice and Amber Island nor Maxi Boy, but any of the others could mount a realistic challenge to make the frame. If I was to pick any, I'd want a decent price so I could go E/W and that probably brings me to the 9/1 Touchwood. His pace/draw profile doesn't look good, but he's essentially only one stall away from having the ideal combo and he has ran well enough to finish third twice in the last three weeks.

Racing Insights, Saturday 03/06/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day overall form...

1-year overall form...

Course 1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.50 Epsom
  • 1.50 Musselburgh
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 5.45 Stratford
  • 6.10 Lingfield
  • 8.00 Tramore

...and although the Epsom 'freebie' is a Group 3 contest, we do have a qualifier from my TJC Report running in a 'free' race, so we're heading twenty miles South East of the Downs for the 6.10 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard polytrack...

Featured horse Citizen General is the only LTO winner in the field, having won here over slightly further (1m5f) three weeks ago, taking his current run to three wins and a runner-up finish from his last five outings. Of his rivals, only Appier had a top 3 finish on their last run and he also won two starts ago. Open Champion, Arcadian Friend and Night Eagle are the others with a win inside their last five runs.

Citizen General is up in class here, as are Nawras, Arcadian Friend and Crimson King, but top-weight Open Champion actually drops down a level here from a ninth place (of 10!) finish at Epsom 39 days ago. That break is the longest of the six to have had a recent run, but Bright Start, Nawras and Arcadian Friend might be a little rusty coming off respective absences of 132, 203 and 255 days.

Bright Start, Liseo and Nawras have won at neither track nor trip, but the other six have done both with four (Open Champion, Appier, Arcadian Friend and Crimson King) having won over course and distance at the same time. This will be Nawras' handicap debut after just four stats, whilst it's Liseo's seventh outing, but only his second in a handicap and his first in cheekpieces.

Aside from not winning here or over this trip, Bright Start, Liseo and Nawras have no A/W wins yet, according to Instant Expert...

It turns out that the trio are actually 0 from 20 between them and despite making the frame in 5 of his 10 starts, the winless Bright Start must be vulnerable here and if I was to discard any runners here, if would be the bottom foru on the above graphic, leaving me with (in draw order)...

Arcadian Friend is probably the weakest of the five on that evidence and carrying 10lbs more than his last win might prove difficult here, but he is drawn highest of my quintet for a race that has favoured those drawn highest, especially for the places...

...but as you all probably know, I'm not a massive fan of the school of thought that says the draw can't kill you before you stat over trips like this, so we should focus on tactics/race positioning ie pace and those races above haven't been overly kind to pace-setters or dwellers...

...with those racing just off the pace or in mid-field reaping the most rewards, which might suit the bottom trio on this graphic more than the two above them...

...with our pace/draw heat map suggesting that Open Champion could be well suited here...

Summary

Open Champion looks well placed to bounce back to form after struggling on unsuitably soft ground LTO and he did won over course and distance on his only other previous visit to Lingfield. He's currently priced at 10/1 with Bet365 and I think that's a decent price for an E/W tilt.

I say E/W, because I think featured horse Citizen General and Appier tick more boxes for me based on the evidence/data above and whilst I doubt there'll be much between them, Citizen General won last time out and he won here, so he just edges it for me. The bookies also think it'll be tight and they've gone 10/3 joint favs on the pair.

Good Luck and have a great weekend.

Chris

Racing Insights, Friday 02/06/23

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.10 Epsom
  • 6.05 Stratford
  • 6.35 Stratford
  • 7.20 Tramore
  • 8.05 Stratford
  • 8.25 Catterick

...the best of which is clearly the Coronation Cup aka the 3.10 Epsom, a 5-runner, Group 1 flat contest for runners aged 4 and over. The trip is a left handed mile and a half on good ground and here's the card...

Only five go to post and you could make a reasonable case for all of them, so let's have a quick look at them...

HURRICANE LANE won the Dante, the Irish Derby and the St Leger last season and won the Gr2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket four weeks ago. Loves good ground, has won a couple of times at this trip and is a major contender here.

POINT LONSDALE has won a pair of Gr3 and a pair of Gr2 contests but hasn't quite got his nose in front at Group 1. Steps up to 1m4f for the first time and whilst he is undoubtedly talented, I fear the ground might be too quick for him here on the faster side of good.

TUNNES won the German St Leger and a Munich Group 1 race last autumn and now makes a UK debut 40 days after finishing second in the Gr2 Carl Jaspers Preis at Cologne. This is tougher and he was beaten by more than 3 lengths last time out, despite going off at 9/10.

WESTOVER was third in the Derby here last year before going on to win the Irish version three weeks later. Hasn't been seen in UK/Ireland since flopping in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes at Ascot last July, but was sixth in the Arc and ran a very good second behind Equinox in the Gr1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan ten weeks ago. Much will depend on which Westover turns up.

EMILY UPJOHN is the only female in the race and she too hasn't been seen for some time, as it's now 230 days since she landed the Gr1 Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot in October. She was unlucky not to win the Oaks here a year ago, going down by just a short head despite stumbling out of the stalls. Her 3lb allowance might be key, because she's a classy filly. Oh, and don't forget the Frankie factor!

Instant Expert only covers UK/Irish form, so we've nothing on Tunnes, but just look how good his rivals have performed under similar conditions...

All three course losers did make the frame and there's very little for me to pick apart here. The three to have tackled this trip have all actually done better over shorter and Point Lonsdale's best form is on soft (or worse) ground, so this might be a bit quick for him in the sunshine.

There's not a huge draw bias here, as you'd probably expect from a small field over a fairly long race...

...although those drawn higher do edge it on place results. Pace, however, is a different story...

Prominent runners fare best, suggesting that leaders get stalked and passed, whilst a hold-up approach is a definite no-no here on the Downs over this trip in a small field. That said, none of the four we have data for are hold-up horses, based on their last four outings...

...but those numbers suggest Point Lonsdale and Westover might fight it out and become vulnerable to being picked off by Hurricane Lane and Emily Upjohn.

Summary

I've disregarded Tunnes because I don't know a great deal about him and I don't think his run last time out was good enough to make him a likely winner here, so I'm down to the four I do have data about.

Point Lonsdale and Westover might do too much early on and become targets and I think the ground will be too quick for the former. Hurricane Lane's past achievements speak for themselves and Emily Upjohn is a really good filly and her 3lbs allowance will be more than useful here, so I'm taking Hurricane Lane to beat Emily Upjohn.

The bookies disagree and they've go Westover as the 9/4 fav, whilst my 1-2 are currently 4/1 and 3/1, but the market isn't always right!

Racing Insights, Thursday 01/06/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.55 Fairyhouse
  • 5.05 Roscommon
  • 5.40 Market Rasen
  • 5.50 Carlisle
  • 6.00 Fairyhouse
  • 6.50 Carlisle

If truth be told, I don't particularly like any of the 'free' races, so I'm going off piste by looking at the highest rated flat race of the day, the 4.20 Ripon, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

Both Pisanello and Cockalorum won last time out and all bar Society Red and Baryshnikov have won at least one of their last six outings, although the latter ran really well to fin.sh third recently in a race we covered in this column. In his favour here, is that he's down in class, as is top weight Imperial Sands, but Cockalorum, Nigwa, Tarbaan and Society Red all step up in grade.

Cockalorum has been off the track the longest, but 42 days is hardly an eternity and shouldn't affect his running here. All bar Imperial Sands, Pisanello and Tarbaan have already scored over course and distance, but the latter has at least won at today's trip, whilst Instant Expert says that all bar Imperial Sands have won on good ground and that only half of the field have scored at Class 3...

...and the inference from above is that we should be focusing our efforts on this group...

...although Cockalorum's 0 from 9 at this grade is a concern, as is Pisanello's 0 from 4 at the trip. That concern re: Pisanello isn't really alleviated by place form either...

...but I won't rule him nor Cockalorum out at this stage. My five runners are spread across the stalls from box 1 to 7 for a track/trip that hasn't really suited those drawn highest...

...whilst the winners of those races above have tended to be those up with the pace...

So, the draw hasn't been too kind to Cockalorum/Nigwa there, but what about the pace? Are any of our five willing to set the fractions here? Well, we can only guess / make a reasoned assumption and to do this, we can look at the field's most recent four races...

...and that's better news for Cockalorum, but not great for Baryshnikov or Pisanello.

Summary

I shortlisted five and none really tick all the boxes for me here. In draw order...

Pisanello is up in class and weight and might get outpaced early on.

Baryshnikov might leave himself too much to do as he did earlier this week, but he did run well when he got going and is now down in class.

Tarbaan is neither here nor there on the above, but looks less exposed under these conditions, will like the ground and the trip and gets weight from most of his rivals. Mid draw & mid-pace, probably more a placer than a winner.

Cockalorum has a poor record at Class 3 and doesn't have the best draw and although he won last time out, is now up in class and weight

Nigwa is second on the shortlist's pace chart, but all three discarded horses will probably be ahead of him in the early stages, he has the worst of the draw of my shortlisted five and if he runs like he did last time, will have to pass most of the field to win.

Honestly, any of the five could win this. Its not a great race, but it's an evenly-matched open contest that even the three discards could run well in.

Do I want to back any of these to win? No, but if I wanted to put a couple of quid down for an interest, I think I'd back Tarbaan at 11/1 E/W and if pushed I'd say Baryshnikov or Pisanello, but without any real conviction.

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