Racing Insights, Wednesday 31/07/24
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 5.45 Sandown
- 6.00 Galway
- 7.10 Galway
- 7.55 Sandown
My own personal settings for the TS report...
...have generated just four runners of possible interest...
...and with two of the four taking each other on in one of our 'free' races, let's head over for a quick look at the 7.55 Sandown, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...
...where both Organic and Dancingwithmyself come here on the back of a win with the former having won three of her last four and the latter is two from four.
Ciara Pearl has lost her last three, but did win three in a row before those defeats, Xiomara ia a four-race maiden, but has been the runner-up in tow of her three Flat races and Winterfair is one from six, having won on the A/W at Wolverhampton on just her second start.
I Love Paris produced her best effort to date when a runner-up (beaten by a short head) at Newbury recently, but she remans a maiden after nine attempts, whilst Worrals has been in the first three home in each of her last five starts, winning once, but Alvesta is another nine-race maiden.
Ciara Pearl actually drops three classes here and Winterfair is down a level too, but Organic steps up one class and also wears cheekpieces for the first time, as Worrals now has a first-time tongue tie in place. We should have no fitness issues as all eight have raced inside the last six weeks with bottom-weight Alvesta turned back out quickest 11 days after finishing 5th of 9 at Newmarket.
She's one of three maidens in the race and of her five rivals who have managed to win a race, Winterfair and Worrals are both yet to score over today's trip, whilst Winterfair's fifth place of ten runners here over 7f on debut back in September is the only time any of these have raced here at Sandown before.
As I suspected based on the above, we get more guidance/assistance from the the place stats on Instant Expert than we do from the win side of things...
...where despite there not being much data available, we can see who has performed better than the others.
Similar past races have favoured runners drawn highest with runners in stalls 6 and 7 winning most often...
From a tactics perspective, it appears that there's no huge advantage in any particular running style, but hold-up horses have won less often...
...and the pace/draw heat map seems to suggest that the draw has more relevance than the pace...
...but let's see how these runners normally approach their races and how they might fit into our pace/draw heat map, shall we...
Summary
Organic won last time out and has won three of her last four. She's one of just three to have won over today's trip and she sits firmly in the green on pace/draw having been drawn in stall 6, so all things considered, she'd be the one for me here.
Dancingwithmyself also won well last out and has a high draw, so she's probably gong to be the main challenge to Organic, whilst if I was to pick a third horse, I'd probably go with Ciara Pearl who was in great form at this level earlier in the season and now drops back down in class.
Only Bet365 had prices out at 4.45pm on Tuesday and here's how they looked...
No column tomorrow (Wednesday) as I'm away at a family funeral, but I'll be back Thursday for a Friday preview as normal.