Racing Insights, Wednesday 31/07/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 5.45 Sandown
  • 6.00 Galway
  • 7.10 Galway
  • 7.55 Sandown

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just four runners of possible interest...

...and with two of the four taking each other on in one of our 'free' races, let's head over for a quick look at the 7.55 Sandown, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...

...where both Organic and Dancingwithmyself come here on the back of a win with the former having won three of her last four and the latter is two from four.

Ciara Pearl has lost her last three, but did win three in a row before those defeats, Xiomara ia a four-race maiden, but has been the runner-up in tow of her three Flat races and Winterfair is one from six, having won on the A/W at Wolverhampton on just her second start.

I Love Paris produced her best effort to date when a runner-up (beaten by a short head) at Newbury recently, but she remans a maiden after nine attempts, whilst Worrals has been in the first three home in each of her last five starts, winning once, but Alvesta is another nine-race maiden.

Ciara Pearl actually drops three classes here and Winterfair is down a level too, but Organic steps up one class and also wears cheekpieces for the first time, as Worrals now has a first-time tongue tie in place. We should have no fitness issues as all eight have raced inside the last six weeks with bottom-weight Alvesta turned back out quickest 11 days after finishing 5th of 9 at Newmarket.

She's one of three maidens in the race and of her five rivals who have managed to win a race, Winterfair and Worrals are both yet to score over today's trip, whilst Winterfair's fifth place of ten runners here over 7f on debut back in September is the only time any of these have raced here at Sandown before.

As I suspected based on the above, we get more guidance/assistance from the the place stats on Instant Expert than we do from the win side of things...

...where despite there not being much data available, we can see who has performed better than the others.

Similar past races have favoured runners drawn highest with runners in stalls 6 and 7 winning most often...

From a tactics perspective, it appears that there's no huge advantage in any particular running style, but hold-up horses have won less often...

...and the pace/draw heat map seems to suggest that the draw has more relevance than the pace...

...but let's see how these runners normally approach their races and how they might fit into our pace/draw heat map, shall we...

Summary

Organic won last time out and has won three of her last four. She's one of just three to have won over today's trip and she sits firmly in the green on pace/draw having been drawn in stall 6, so all things considered, she'd be the one for me here.

Dancingwithmyself also won well last out and has a high draw, so she's probably gong to be the main challenge to Organic, whilst if I was to pick a third horse, I'd probably go with Ciara Pearl who was in great form at this level earlier in the season and now drops back down in class.

Only Bet365 had prices out at 4.45pm on Tuesday and here's how they looked...

No column tomorrow (Wednesday) as I'm away at a family funeral, but I'll be back Thursday for a Friday preview as normal.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/07/24

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

My fairly restrictive settings (you get to choose your own) for The Shortlist have generated the following qualifiers..

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 3.10 Yarmouth
  • 5.55 Goodwood
  • 6.35 Ffos Las
  • 8.15 Galway

The logical place to start would be with 15-scoring Kinross in the 3.00 Goodwood from our 'free' list, of course and whilst other writers here on Geegeez are probably better qualified to write about this race, it's a useful exercise to see how the toolkit can be applied to a top-class race like this 8-runner, Group 2, 3yo+ flat contest over a right-handed 7f on good ground...

Tiber Flow fell two starts ago when clipping heels at York, but came back to win at Haydock last time out. English Oak has gone one better and comes here on a hat-trick after handicap wins at Haydock and Ascot, whilst Noble Dynasty has won his last four including a Group 3 success last time out.

English Oak will find this tougher, stepping up in class as the only runner in the field who didn't race at Class 1 last time around and all eight horses have raced at least once in the last 17 (Kinross) to 52 (Tiber Flow) days, so we should have no fitness issues.

Audience, Art Power, Kinross and Chicago Critic have all won two of their last seven (six for the latter), but Pogo is on a run of eight defeats since a Group 2 success back in October 2022. Art Power and Chicago Critic have yet to win over today's trip, whilst only Kinross has won here at Goodwood in the past, scoring over course and distance twice when winning this very race in 2021 and 2023. Instant Expert says that his Class 1 record is the best on show today over the last two years...

...and it is he and Noble Dynasty that catch the eye here. Pogo and Tiber Flow have poor win ratios at Class 1 and the former has also struggled to score over this trip. Kinross is lightly raced on good ground, but over the last two years has four wins and a place from six efforts on good to firm or good to soft.

After looking at the two-year place stats...

...I'm ready to dismiss Art Power, Pogo and Tiber Flow as I head to see whether there's anything to be had from the draw and it looks like 'low is go!'...

...which is a tad unfortunate as I've just dismissed the runners in stalls 1 and 3! As for the pace of those races above, those setting the fractions appear to have done best of all, but hold-up types also have a good record as shown below on both the pace stats and the pace/draw heat map...

So, the ideal make-up is a low or high draw for front runners or for a hold-up horse from a low draw and based on this field's last few runs...

...Pogo is becoming a bit of a fly in the ointment with his low draw and front-running style! The stats say he could well make the frame, but form suggests otherwise for me. Noble Dynasty ticks the high-drawn leader box for us here whilst Chicago Critic might have a squeak of a chance from the back of the field, seeing as I'm already against Tiber Flow!

Summary

It has to be Noble Dynasty and Kinross for me and probably in that order and I'm not in the least surprised to see them as the 10/3 joint favs at 4pm on Monday. As for the others, they're all in with a chance of nicking a place, I suppose.

Only Chicago Critic (16/1), Art Power (25/1) and Pogo (25/1) were priced higher than my usual 8/1 E/W cut-off price and if I had to choose one of those three to outrun the odds, it would probably be Chicago Critic, but he'll need a career best effort. That said, he is well in at the weights, carrying 12lbs less than the highest-rated runner Audience who is supposedly 11lbs better than him.



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Racing Insights, Monday 29/07/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 4.35 Southwell
  • 4.50 Galway
  • 7.40 Windsor
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

All three UK races are the same standard, so with it being a Monday night, let's have a quick look at the 7.40 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over slightly further than a mile around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

Atlantis Blue and More Than A Feeling both got off the mark last time out, albeit after 14 and 4 defeats respectively. Delicacy was third after a pair of runner-up finishes, but remains a maiden after eight starts, whilst Resonance is a seven-race maiden. Mirroring is 1 from 8, having won four starts ago at Epsom, back in August 2023 and Mizuumi is 1 from 4 despite winning on debut back in December. She has been last home of four in two of her three starts since. Cherry Hill has won just one of ten, which was at Kempton in September of last year. She has been beaten four times since, including being last home of ten on two occasions.

Mirroring will wear a hood for the first time today, whilst the fast-finisher More Than A Feelin steps up in class, as does Cherry Hill. At the ages of 4 and 5, the top three on the card (Atlantis Blue, Resonance & Soi Dao) are effectively 8lbs out of the handicap here, as they don't get the weight allowance that the five others get as three year olds. Resonance last raced just over eight weeks ago and the others have all had a run in the last 33 days. Despite the field only having won 8 of 93 combined starts (Soi Dao is 3 from 36 out of that!), Atlantis Blue, Soi Dao and Mizuumi have all still managed a win over today's trip. Only four of the field have raced at Windsor before (once each) with two placed efforts being the best results to date, meaning that we're probably going to get more from the place element of Instant Expert than we are from the win stats...

All of which is pretty uninspiring if truth be told, isn't it? That said, Atlantis Blue, Delicacy and Cherry Hill are probably the take-aways from this. These three will run from stalls 2, 5 and 6 and whilst there's no huge draw bias here, the lower drawn runners might just have a slight edge...

...but it is slight, for sure. Race positioning, however, is a different matter. We call this PACE and it's Monday's free feature and Windsor certainly suits those brave enough to set the tempo and if we look at how those races above have panned out, you'd probably agree with me that pace is more important than draw today...

...and this belief is backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

If we then look at the pace scores from the field's last few races...

...you'd have to say that Atlantis Blue and Delicacy would be best positioned.

Summary

From Instant Expert, Atlantis Blue, Delicacy and Cherry Hill had the edge and it's Atlantis Blue and Delicacy who look best positioned on pace, so that's the pair I'm siding with here. I've no prices (as of Sunday 4.15pm) to guide me, so I'll suggest that Delicacy would be the one I'd go with marginally. She seems in more consistent form despite winning and the booking of Tom Marquand is a bonus here.

 



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Racing Insights, Saturday 27/07/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated no UK combos for me to check out but thankfully, as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover...

  • 2.05 York
  • 2.10 Chester
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.15 Ascot
  • 6.30 Salisbury
  • 6.45 Lingfield

...and I've got reasons for not wanting to look at any of those like maidens, jump jockeys on the Flat and field sizes, so I'm going to randomly select the day's highest rated/most valuable race that has at least 6 runners and that happens to be the 2.25 Ascot, an 8-runner, 3yo+ Fillies & Mares Group 3 Flat contest over a right-handed mile on good/good to firm ground that is being watered to stop it getting any quicker...

I strongly suspect that this will be a race of two halves with the three three year olds (Devoted Queen, Friendly Soul & Soprano) using their 8lbs weight allowance to battle with Sirona for positions in the first four home.

One of those 3yo's Devoted Queen is our only LTO winner and she defends a 3 from 3 record here today. Elsewhere Doom won three starts ago and has seven top-3 finishes on the bounce, whilst Naomi Lapaglia has won two of her six starts but might need a run after a 10 month break.

Sirona won four starts ago and then made the frame in a pair of Group 3 races before a 4 length Group 1 defeat last time out. Friendly Soul has won two of her three starts, but was well beaten in the Musidora and Soprano won here over course and distance five weeks ago and was third in a Listed race last time out.

On the cold list, though, are Julia Augusta and Thornbrook after ten and seven successive defeats respectively, but both have won over today's trip unlike Doom and Sirona, whilst our sole course win was that by the fast-finisher Soprano over this track and trip five weeks ago. Instant Expert looks like this...

...with the three year olds taking centre stage, although Doom and Sirona have good place records. Sirona and Thornbrook's Class 1 stats aren't great, though and Sirona has also been found wanting at this trip, so I'm less keen on her right now even if the draw might help her more than Thornbrook in stall 1...

...there's not actually much in it to be fair, especially from a place perspective and I suspect it'll be race tactics aka pace that sorts the wheat from the chaff here.

That said, there's not a great deal there either, but those in mid-division have fared slightly better than the others, which could be good news for Devoted Queen and Friendly Soul based on past efforts...

Summary

The three 3yo's are the best off at the weights with the 4yo Sirona having the joint highest OR and it's these four that I think are the ones to focus on.

Sirona obviously doesn't have the 8lbs weight allowance and wasn't as impressive on Instant Expert as the other three, plus her late run hold-up style could go against her here, so she's going to be the odd one out of my quartet, leaving me with Devoted Queen, Friendly Soul & Soprano.

I don't think there's much between them, but on form you'd have to put Soprano third and then make a decision on the other two. Devoted Queen is drawn higher, but Friendly Soul has pace either side of her, but she did run poorly last time out, so its Devoted Queen - Friendly Soul - Soprano for me.



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Racing Insights, Friday 26/07/24

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Ascot
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 3.10 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Ascot
  • 6.30 Sandown
  • 6.50 Chepstow

...the highest-rated of which is the 3.35 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on good/good to firm ground...

Chasing Aphrodite, Insanity and Mutaawid all won last time out, whilst Burdett Road, Hosaamm, Wonder Kid and Mount Atlas all had top-three finishes.

All nine runners have won at least one of their last three outings, but whilst Burdett Road and Tabletalk drop down in class today, Chasing Aphrodite and Wonder Kid are up from Class 3, Insanity is up from Class 4 and Hosaamm steps up from Class 5 for his handicap debut.

It's also handicap debut day for Mutaaid, Tabletalk and Mount Atlas, whilst Alfred Boucher runs for the first time since being pulled up at Chester 22 months ago. He's entitled to need the run, but might be worth keeping an eye out for in future as he finished 2212 at Class 2 in the four runs before he was pulled up LTO.

Top weight Burdett Road might also need the run as he comes back from a six month break since a Grade 2 runner-up run at Cheltenham over hurdles and now runs on the Flat for the first time in eleven months. Insanity has been off the track for three months, but the others have all had at least one run in the last 13 (Wonder Kid) to 55 (Tabletalk) days.

Only four of this field (Alfred Boucher, Insanity, Mutaawid & Wonder Kid) have scored over today's trip with Alfred Boucher winning over course and distance three years ago; Burdett Road (1m2f) and Chasing Aphrodite (1m) have also tasted success on this track in the past as shown below in the 2-year stats on Instant Expert...

As you can see, the going shouldn't be an issue to most of this field, but they are shy on Class 2 runs/wins although Chasing Aphrodite is also 2 from 3 at Class 3. Insanity and Wonder Kid are the pick of the pack over this trip, but the latter is now rated some 11lbs higher than his last win, as is top-weight Burdett Road. The place stats from those races tell a similar story and neither help nor hinder us...

With regards to the draw, past races here over this going, track and trip have favoured runners in stalls 5, 6 and 7 from a win perspective, with those berthed in stall 5 or higher having the best chance of making the frame, although the margins are a little tighter for the places...

...whilst the pace data from those races suggests that horses can win from anywhere in the pack, even if those in mid-division haven't quite done as well as others...

...creating this resultant draw/pace heat map...

So, we can see where we'd like each runner to be in the field as they run. Those drawn centrally can run their own race, but those drawn lowest will probably need to lead, whilst the higher drawn trio would be advised to sit in. We now need to check how they 'normally' run, now some of these only have three runs to their name, so looking at the entire field's last three outings...

...we see that Burdett Road might well fulfil the role of high drawn hold-up horse, whilst from the lowest drawn trio, Chasing Aphrodite and Mutaawid may well be the ones setting the tempo of the race.

Summary

I think I'm going to go with the three who aren't drawn centrally, but do tick the pace/draw heat map boxes ie Chasing Aphrodite, Mutaawid and Burdett Road.

I know Burdett Road might need the run, but his last two races were a win and a runner-up finish in Grade 2 company, albeit over hurdles and his last flat handicap run saw him win here at Ascot at this grade last year. he'd be an unlikely winner, but a 'live' E/W prospect if the price is/was right.

Chasing Aphrodite and Mutaawid both won last time out, one has won here and one has won over this trip, but the handicap debutant Mutaawid gets an 11lbs weight for age allowance and that should swing things his way .

The bookies, however, take a slightly different view on things and at 5.30pm Thursday they went...

...they do agree that Mutaawid is the likeliest winner here, but are less keen on Burdett Road and very cold about Chasing Aphrodite's prospects, but I think he might be a decent 14/1 E/W bet.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 25/07/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.45 Doncaster
  • 4.55 Sandown
  • 5.30 Yarmouth
  • 7.00 Yarmouth
  • 7.45 Newbury
  • 7.50 Leopardstown

...and the highest-rated of the five UK races above is Race 4 of the new season of the Racing League aka the 7.00 Yarmouth, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

My immediate thoughts were that this might well be a three-way battle between (in card order) Yantarni, Love Billy Boy and Pedro Valentino, but I don't want to dismiss any of these too soon, of course.

Love Billy Boy won last time out, as did Oliver Show who has won two of his three, a feat only bettered by Yantarni who has won each of his last three. Pedro Valentino has won two of his last five Exquisite Acclaim is two from six and Woodstock is two from seven.
Storm Star has raced just three times, but won on debut as did Ziggys Condor who is 0 from 5 since despite two really good runner-up finishes at York. Farhh To Shy, Holy Fire and How Impressive are on the cold list, though after 8, 11 and 7 respective consecutive defeats.

Farhh To Shy's cause may be helped by a drop down in class, as do Love Billy Boy and Ziggy's Condor, but Oliver Show, the cold Holy Fire and joint bottom weight Pedro Valentino all step up one class, whilst it's a two-step rise for in-form Yantarni.

The other joint bottom weight runner, Storm Star, runs in a handicap for just the second time, whilst Ziggy's Condor is now fitted with cheekpieces. Oliver Show hasn't been seen for 101 days since winning at Kempton (15th April), but the others have all had at least one run in the last six weeks.

Four of this field (Holy Fire, Love Billy Boy, Ziggy's Condor and Storm Star) have yet to win over today's trip, whilst Farhh To Shy is the only course and distance winner here, having won this race last year off a pound higher. That's great, of course, but she hasn't won since! How Impressive also won here last September, getting home by three quarters of a length over 6f off a mark 5lbs lower than today's. Both of these course wins can be seen on the 2 year win version of today's feature, Instant Expert...

...where the in-form Yantarni is probably the one that catches the eye first, especially over today's trip. There aren't too many areas for concern above, but Woodstock's 1 from 7 over 7f is a slight worry, but that win was just two starts ago plus he also won over this trip on the A/W at Wolverhampton back in April. You'll also notice below that Woodstock has made the frame in half of those six defeats, suggesting that he might be one to watch from an E/W perspective...

...and at this point (without ruling any out), I'm more interested in the runners emerging from stalls 1, 4, 5, 8 and 10. I'm not too concerned that they're spread across the range of the stalls, but I don't expect much advantage from the draw here, as shown from previous contests here...

...but a straight run on good to form ground here at Yarmouth always screams "early pace" to me and those 70-odd race above have certainly favoured those brave enough to try to win the race from the front...

...which opens the door slightly for the likes of Exquisite Acclaim and How Impressive, based on their recent efforts...

...although what I suspect will happen here is that they'll tow the nearby Pedro Valentino, Yantarni and Love Billy Boy in to the race and ultimately get swallowed up by them.

Summary

I started by suggesting that this might well be a three-way battle between (in card order) Yantarni, Love Billy Boy and Pedro Valentino and to be honest, I've not seen too much to shake/sway me from that, although Woodstock also became of interest during the process. I think Woodstock has a live (if slim) chance of making the frame, but I think he's going to need one of my trio to slip up to do so. That said at 20/1 with Betfair/PP, I wouldn't you off a small E/W bet, although I'd take the 18/1 and 4 places from Sky, if you're going to back him.

Now back to my chosen trio and based on the above, I'm going with the 9/2 Pedro Valentino to hold off the 4/1 Yantarni and Love Billy Boy, who is bordering on E/W territory at 15/2.

Odds quoted as of 5.15pm Wednesday.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/07/24

 

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.50 Lingfield

  • 3.28 Wexford

  • 6.20 Naas

  • 6.45 Leicester

  • 7.05 Salisbury

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated a reasonable sized stack of runners of interest...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...1-year course form...

...and 5-year course form...

It's another low-grade day of racing in the UK,  but we do have two races on our 'free' list that have runners from my TS Report and whilst two runners from the report go in the 2.50 Lingfield race, I think the 6.45 Leicester might be a better race to work with. It's a 7-runner (sadly), Class 5, 3yo+ fillies’ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on good to firm ground and here’s how they’re due to line up…

This looks (on paper, at least) to be a pretty open contest with several having claims, but only Chicago Gal comes here on the back of a win, having scored at Beverley on Monday. She was a runner-up in her previous race, so she’s in good nick. None of her rivals made the places last time out, but Rock N Roll Pinkie won two starts ago and Dance Time was a winner four races back.

Typical Woman, however, is winless in nine and Maritime Lady is a seven-race maiden (placed just once), whilst both Miss Monte Carlo and Edna E Mode have yet to get off the mark after three races..

LTO winner Chicago Gal steps up a class here, but top-weight Rock N Roll Pinkie and handicap debutant Miss Monte Carlo both drop down a level. Fellow handicap debutant and joint bottom weight Edna E Mode makes a yard debut for Stuart Edmunds, having left Harry Charlton after just three starts.

The other joint bottom-weight, Maritime Lady will wear cheekpieces for the first time and aside from Miss Monte Carlo, the field have all had at least one run in the last month or so; Miss Monte Carlo might need the outing, as she’s been off track for 19 weeks since finishing 4th of 7, beaten by some 16 lengths over 1m3f on the A/W at Southwell in mid-March.

Of the four runners with a career win to their name, only Dance Time has won over today’s trip, whilst the whole field is 0 from 4 here at Leicester with just Chicago Gal making the frame, according to Instant Expert

...which sadly doesn't give me as much help as I'd hoped it might. The Class 5 records are poor across the board, but Chicago Gal has finished 721 in three starts at Class 6 on the Flat and Rock N Roll Pinkie's results are 171 and she was a Class 4 runner-up back in May.

In past similar races, horses drawn more centrally tend to have fared best,

...particularly stalls 3 to 5 for the win and stalls 2 to 6 for the places, which won't be the best news that connections of Edna E Mode and Typical Woman have had.

Furthermore, those 60-odd races above have suited those willing to set the tempo of the race from the front with leaders winning more often than any other running style, whilst the place stats say that the further forward a horse runs, the better its chances of making the frame, which could be good news for Edna E Mode and Dance Time, based on their last few outings...

Summary

The form horse is Chicago Gal, of course and if she runs here just two days after a comfortable win at Beverley, she'd be the one to beat even if that goes against the data above. After all, she was also a course and distance runner-up two starts ago.

As for another to make the frame, then the stats above point towards Dance Time. She has finished 31253 in her last five, so does tend to be there or thereabouts. She's drawn slap bang centre of the stalls, likes to race prominently and is the only runner in the race to have won over today's trip.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/07/24

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a couple at least worth a second glance. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.30 Lingfield
  • 4.15 Musselburgh
  • 6.53 Ballinrobe
  • 7.53 Ballinrobe

There's one Class 3 race in the UK on Tuesday, but I don't do Novice events, so the remaining 21 races are either Class 5 or Class 6, the most valuable of which features Rock Melody from The Shortlist, so let's have a look at that 3.45 Musselburgh, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground...

Eight year old Ghathanfar is the oldest runner in the field, but comes here a fortnight after finishing third of nine at Pontefract beaten by little more than half a length, whilst Le Beau Garcon won by a similar margin (beating the re-opposing Khabib into second) at Thirsk four weeks ago.

None of the other eight runners managed to make the frame on their last outings and aside from Le Beau Garcon, only Profitable Edge (twice), Ziggy's Queen, Classy Al and Albegone (twice) have managed a win in their last seven outings; Khabib, Rock Melody, Ghathanfar, Vadamiah and Pockley are on losing runs of 9, 7, 23, 10 and 14 races respectively with the last of that quintet, Pockley, yet to win on Turf after 26 attempts!

Of the ten, only Ghathanfar ran at this grade with all of his rivals actually dropping in class today. Most drop down from Class 4, but Rock Melody, Classy Al and Pockley all drop down two levels here and none of the field should have any fitness/sharpness issues, as they've all raced in the last 14 (Ghathanfar) to 37 (Rock Melody) days.

All ten have also won over today's trip at least once and three (Ziggy's Queen, Rock Melody & Albegone) have all won over course distance, whilst Ghathanfar was a winner here over 7f just over four years ago, which, of course, won't show up on the 2yr record on Instant Expert!

As you'd expect Rock Melody from The Shortlist is the immediate eye-catcher here, as most of the field have poor records on good ground. Classy Al has struggled to win at Class 5 and the trip has been an issue for Khabib, Le Beau Garcon, Ziggy's Queen and Vadamiah, but two of this quartet do have have good place stats...

...with only the runners in stalls 1 & 10 (Pockely & Khabib) having no green at all. It's a straight 5f on good ground, so you wouldn't expect the draw to have too much influence, but for some reason those drawn more centrally have struggled to win, whilst those drawn highest have the best place records...

...whilst in terms of pace/tactics, those 65 races above have tended to favour front runners, like most straight 5f races do in fairness...

...which gives us a bit of a mixed bag on the pace/draw heat map...

...where the three most successful combos are high drawn leaders, low drawn leaders and high drawn mid-division runners, so let's see how this field have approached their recent races...

Summary

The low-drawn front runner Ghathanfar is the obvious starting point, but despite a recent run of results reading 32303, he still strikes me more as a placer than a winner having failed to win any of his last 23 races. Vadamiah ticks the high drawn leader box, but he's also winless in ten, making the frame in just two of those defeats.

This brings Khabib into the equation next, as the high-drawn mid-division runner and although he was only fifth last time out, he was a half-length runner-up to the in-form Le Beau Garcon two starts ago on the latter's last outing and Khabib is now 2lbs better off today. We should also remember Rock Melody from The Shortlist who has ideal conditions here.

That said, I suspect the in-form Le Beau Garcon will be the one to beat here with Khabib, Rock Melody and Ghathanfar scrapping for the places behind him. We had no market at 3pm Monday, but I'd be looking at getting a reasonable (4/1-ish?) price about LBG and then taking a small E/W punt on whichever of Khabib, Rock Melody and Ghathanfar (if any!) trade at 8/1 or bigger.



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Racing Insights, Monday 22/07/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 6.10 Ballinrobe
  • 6.20 Windsor
  • 7.30 Beverley
  • 7.50 Windsor

...the highest-rated of which is only Class 4. Mind you, as ide from one Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap Chase at nearby (to me, anyway) Cartmel, Class 4 is as good as it gets in the UK on another miserable Monday. The race in question here is the 7.50 Windsor, a six-runner, Class 4, fillies' flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

NAAEY was a runner-up and then a winner on her first two starts (both at Class 5), but found life tougher last time out when 7th of 8 (beaten by 15 lengths) in a Listed race at Pontefract, just under a fortnight ago. She's now down three classes for her handicap debut and should put up a better show here.

MOTHER MARY has gone six races without a win, since landing a 7f Novice event at Thirsk almost a year ago. She has failed to even make the frame in three handicap runs to date and was 15th of 24 in a Class 2 handicap at Royal Ascot last time out. She drops two classes to run here, but it's hard to have much confidence in her and she steps up in trip by 2f.

WARREN HILL tends to be there or thereabouts without clocking the wins up as recent results of 4144 would testify. She has won two of the thirteen career starts so far and is probably best left watched on her return from over five months off track. Both career wins have however been over today's trip.

STAR JASMINE won over a mile on heavy ground at Bath at the start of April and was only beaten by a short head and a nose over 1m1f at Hamilton seven weeks ago but was disappointing at York last time out when only 10th of 18. She's down in class here, though and also gets a 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

SEEK AND DESTROY makes a handicap debut after finishing second (beaten by a nose) and then first over today's trip. Both races were Class 5 affairs, though, so she's up in class here today, but her last run/win was here over course and distance. Also gets a 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

SEA REGAL has also only raced three times before and managed to win over today's trip two starts ago. She didn't seem to 'get' 1m4f last time out, but now drops back in trip. She is, however, up in class for her handicap debut, but does benefit from that 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

We're obviously not holding too much data about a field of six with a combined 35 races (Warren Hill & Mother Mary have raced 21 times between them!), but this is what Instant Expert can tell us...

Only Warren Hill has won a flat handicap so far and she's now rated 6lbs higher than that win, but she has two good runs under her belt on good to firm ground, despite not winning, but she has won at the trip and has also made the frame in one of her Class 4 defeats, as well as over 1m2f. Seek and Destroy is probably the best equipped off what little data we do have. She'll emerge from stall 1 today, but I don't think there's a 'good' or a 'bad' part of the stalls to emerge from here, based on past results, anyway...

...so I'm hoping to get some help from our feature of the day 'PACE' which we can assess in two ways. Firstly we can see how those 70-odd races above have been won...

...with front-runners definitely the horses to be on. Secondly, regarding pace, we can also look at how his field have approached their last few races ie...

...suggesting that Sea Regal, Seek And Destroy and possibly Naaey will be the ones setting the tempo.

Summary

Seek And Destroy won over course and distance last time out, having narrowly failed to win her previous outing. She was the standout on Instant Expert, albeit off limited data and she's likely to be front and forward early doors here, just as is needed at Windsor, so it's Seek And Destroy for me today.

There are then pros and cons for each of the other five as to who might pose the biggest challenge, but Sea Regal will also be prominent and dis win over this trip at the last time she tackled it. She also gets the weight allowance like Seek And Destroy, so Sea Regal is my next best here.

At 4.50pm Sunday, Bet365 were offering 4/1 and 11/4 about Seek An d Destroy respectively with Naaey a 2/1 favourite, so we might have a bit of value.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 20/07/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 3.35 Newbury
  • 4.50 Curragh
  • 5.20 Newbury
  • 5.45 Doncaster
  • 8.30 Haydock

...and of the ten races above, the one that probably suits me best (although I won't know until I'm in the middle of it!) would initially appear to be the 5.20 Newbury, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

Top-weight Zouky hasn't been seen for fifteen weeks since finishing 5th of 10 at Kempton in a Listed race, but she drops two classes here. She has won here over 6f and 7f in the past, but as the sole 4yo in the race she's effectively penalised to the tune of 8lbs.

Bellarchi's last win was in mid-May over this trip at a higher class and she has won two of her last seven. She's the quickest turned out in the field, having been 7th of 11 at Ascot a week ago.

Circe has only raced five times to date (4 on the Flat) finishing third and first in her first two starts, but has failed to place since and now returns from a 12-week break.

Sunfall was third of seven at Chester three weeks ago and has won two of her last four and drops in class here.

Battle Queen also drops in class and also won two starts ago, but finished 6th at Ascot four weeks ago. Mind you, it was a 30-runner handicap, so she wasn't disgraced.

Shemozzle has finished 132 in her three starts to date and was only beaten by a neck at Haydock eight weeks ago on her last outing. She now steps up in class for her handicap debut.

Bottom weight Dramatic Effect is our only LTO winner, having landed a Class 4 Novice event over this trip at Goodwood six weeks ago. Prior to that she was 4th of 9 on handicap debut and she now steps up in class for a second tilt at a handicap.

With so many inexperienced runners here, we've not much to show you on Instant Expert, if truth be told...

...but we can see that most of the field have had at least one decent run on good ground and that a couple of them have made the frame at this level.

A straight run on good ground generally means that there's little to be gained from the draw, aside from the fact that those drawn lowest often have the rail as a guide to keep them straight and this seems to be the case here too...

...whereas with the pace stats from those races, it's a different story and it's the hold-up horses that have fared best of all, especially from a place perspective, although leaders have also won their fair share and it looks like the prominent chaser is the one to avoid here...

...and this is how our field have approached their last few races...

...with Sunfall and Dramatic Effect the more likely back markers.

Summary

There's not a lot to choose between them here, but I think it's Sunfall for me. She's in good form (1013), she's drawn low and will be held up, both of which look ideal for this track/trip.

As for the rest, I think Battle Queen might be the one who creates most problems for my pick, having won at Nottingham in May and was subsequently sixth in the 30-runner Sandringham handicap at Royal Ascot from stall 1. Interestingly the five that beat her came from stalls 18, 33, 28, 4 and 22, so she was second home of her group.

I'm early to press today (now 2.25pm Friday), as I've got to get to the dentist this afternoon, so no prices available just yet.

Have a great weekend,
Chris



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Racing Insights, Friday 19/07/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have generated just the one runner for me to consider...

Thankfully, this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 2.50 Nottingham
  • 4.45 Newbury
  • 5.07 Down Royal
  • 6.25 Newmarket
  • 8.10 Newmarket

...but the H4C race is rated higher than any of the list above, so I'm going to look at Jordan Electrics and the 6.35 Hamilton, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

...where my initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse race between the afore-mentioned Jordan Electrics from the H4C report and bottom-weight Tiriac.

Jordan Electrics actually comes here seeking a hat-trick and has three wins and a runner-up (beaten by a neck) finish from his last four outings and has five wins from his last seven. Top-weight Spangled Mac is the only other LTO winner in the field, but he has been away from the track for over eight months and might well be in need of a run before getting back to his best.

Aside from these two LTO winners, only Manila Scouse's runner-up (bt by 1.25L) effort at Thirsk a fortnight ago is the only place finish any of the field achieved on their last run and Rocket Rodney, Silky Wilkie, First Folio and Londoner are all winless in at least seven (10, 16, 13 & 12 to be precise!) runs.

First Folio's chances of a first win in 14 races surely won't be helped by a step up in class, as do the fast-finishing returnee Spangled Mac and Manila Scouse, whilst my two 'most likelys', Jordan Electrics & Tiriac, are both up two classes today.

Spangled Mac has a 5lb claimer on board to ease the burden of being top-weight, whilst it's first-time blinkers for Magical Spirit and a hood for Londoner.

Jordan Electrics has five wins and four further places from fourteen efforts over course and distance, hence his place on the H4C report, but Manila Scouse has also won over track and trip as recently as early June, three starts ago. Rocket Rodney and Londoner are the only two without a win over today's trip and in addition to our two course and distance winners, Silky Wilkie has also won here, scoring over 5f on her sole previous visit to the track two years and four days ago, which therefore doesn't quite make it onto the two-year record on Instant Expert...

The sharper eyed amongst you will notice that I've also included Class 3 results, because none of them have won in this grade on the Flat over the last couple of years! There's no shock to find that Jordan Electrics is the eyecatcher and my main areas of concern are for First Folio, Raatea and Manila Scouse at the trip. Perhaps they've been unlucky not to win and have made the frame in gallant defeats?

Well, there's definitely some form of redemption for Manila Scouse, whose place stats suggest that he might well be an E/W contender here, but First Folio and Raatea still look vulnerable over the trip.

As you'd probably expect by now, a straight six furlongs on good ground shouldn't really be too affected by the draw, but front-running is to be rewarded...

...which, surprise surprise, is yet more good news for Jordan Electrics...

...but another blow to Raatea's chances.

Summary

You'll be surprised to hear/read that I'm with Jordan Electrics for this one. The above sets of data make it hard to oppose this in-form track and trip specialist, even if he is up in weight and class. We're not getting rich off this 3/1 fav**, but he should be the winner. As for a second option, Manila Scouse looks good as a possible E/W bet, especially if we can get more than the 13/2** currently being offered.

**odds are from Hills, only book open at 4.25pm Thursday.

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 18/07/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.40 Chepstow
  • 4.45 Leopardstown
  • 4.55 Hamilton
  • 6.30 Epsom
  • 7.42 Killarney
  • 8.30 Leopardstown

...where the 'best' (highest rated, anyway!) of the three UK races looks like being the 6.30 Epsom, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f (+33yds after rail movements) on good to soft ground...

Blenheim Star was the only one of this field to have won their last race and she has won three of her last four, making her the clear form horse here. Uncle Dick was a runner-up nine days, having won his previous race and Hello Cotai was also a runner-up a week ago and has made the frame in four of his last five, but the fact remains that he's a nine-race maiden.

Charlie Mason was third on his last outing and did win four starts ago, but aside from the two maidens Hello Cotai (9 attempts) and Seamore (three attempts), only Roundabout has struggled to win of late, going down on eight successive occasions since a win at Bath at the end of last August.

Half of the field are moving class here with three (Uncle Dick, Blenheim Star & Hello Cotai) stepping up a level whilst top weight Shot of Love drops down from Class 4. Seamore makes a handicap debut some ten weeks after the last of three fairly nondescript efforts in Novice company and I should point out that five of this field are only 3 yrs old, meaning they get a 9lb allowance that Shot Of Love (4yo), Uncle Dick (6yo) and Roundabout Silver (5yo) don't benefit from.

We've not much to report in the way of course/distance successes, but Unreal Connection's sole career win from eight starts came here at Epsom over 7f eleven months and six starts ago, whilst Uncle Dick was winner over 1m½f at Wolverhampton way back in January 2021. All of this means that Shot of Love's last Flat win (10 months ago) is the only time any of this field have won over course and distance.

The positives from Instant Expert are that Uncle Dick and Blenheim Star have excellent records over this kind of trip winning a collective 9 of 14 (64.3%) races on the Flat, but conversely Roundabout Silver's 0 from 7 at Class 5 isn't something to write home about...

...and although he has a reasonable place record at the going/track/trip, he has only made the frame once in those seven defeats at this level...

Elsewhere Hello Cotai's recent run of near misses raises his profile as a potential placer, but I still think this might be between those who excel at the trip ie Uncle Dick and Blenheim Star, who will race from stalls 3 and 6 over a track and trip that (to me at least) doesn't seem to offer any discernible draw bias, other than that those drawn lowest have an inferior place record, despite winning their fair share of races...

...and I suspect that it'll be race tactics and race positioning aka pace that determines the outcome here, as the best way of winning here is to set the tempo from the front.

...and the advice is that if you can't set the pace, you might as conserve energy at the back of the field and then come with a late run, taking advantage of those who've blown themselves out getting up the hill. Based on recent outings, Shot of Love is likely to be the pacemaker today, with the likes of Uncle Dick, Blenheim Star and Charlie Mason the ones coming with a late run.

Summary

It has been Blenheim Star and Uncle Dick getting the mentions throughout my summary. Both are in good form, of course, but Blenheim Star is in the better form and benefits from that 9lbs age allowance, so I'd take Blenheim Star to beat Uncle Dick here. As for the other placer, Hello Cotai has made the frame in four of his last five and he could easily makes that five from six here.

I'd no odds to quote at 4pm Wednesday, but I wouldn't be too surprised in the top three in the market are my 1-2-3 and I suspect that none will be E/W backable, but if you wanted an E/W play, then Charlie Mason might be best positioned to edge one of my three out as he's likely to come late with Blenheim Star and Uncle Dick, who might just tow him into contention.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/07/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Uttoxeter
  • 4.55 Thirsk
  • 5.20 Killarney
  • 7.50 Killarney
  • 8.10 Yarmouth

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

I'll be honest with you here, Wednesday looks like being one of the worst days of racing that I've seen for a while, but the show must go on. I know we've a couple of TS report runners in the same race, but 15-runner hurdles aren't my bag, so I'll head for the relative 'comfort' of the flat and a quick look at the 8.10 Yarmouth, an 11-runner, Class 6 (I know!), 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight six furlongs on good to soft ground...

None of these come here on the back of a win, but Moreginplease and Porfin were both runners-up after also being placed on their penultimate outings. Bluebells Boy was third recently and a course and distance winner prior to that and only Dion Baker, Fletchers Flight, Moreginplease and Porfin have also had a win in their last five outings.

Bluebells Boy and Munificent are denoted as fast finishers and top weight Dion Baker is the only class mover, dropping down from Class 5. Six-race maiden Melisende now wears blinkers for the first time and Majorelle Blue makes a yard debut for Simon Pearce in what will be just her fifth start and second in handicap company.

She may well need the run after six months off track, as aside from Munificent (last seen ten weeks ago), all her rivals have had at least one outing in the last five weeks.

As you'd expect from such a lowly race, we don't have much in the way of course/distance wins, but Fletcher's Flight and Moreginplease have both own over this trip before, whilst Dion Baker (7f), Munificent (5f) and Enchanted Night (5f) have all won here at Yarmouth in the past, although I should point out that the latter has an overall career record of 1 win in 45 efforts!

We know that Bluebells Boy won over course and distance two starts and nineteen days ago, but Porfin also achieved that feat five weeks ago for his first ever Yarmouth success, according to Instant Expert...

...which doesn't really give us much to work on. Bluebells Boy, Porfin and Munificent probably lead the way here, but the numbers aren't terribly exciting, so I'm hoping to get more from the place stats...

...which, in fairness, are more helpful and do point to some decent efforts being produced. There's not really much on that graphic that would rule any of them out of contention, but Dion Baker, Bluebells Boy, Moreginplease, Porfin, Munificent and Enchanted Night catch the eye most here from stalls 3, 5, 6, 7, 9 and 11. I'm already fairly dismissive of stall 3 Enchanted Night's chances of a second career win on his 46th start, so if there's any draw bias to be had, I'm hoping it's the higher stalls that benefit...

Sadly, that's not quite the case, as lower drawn runners have come out slightly better, but I'm never too convinced about the draw on a straight sprint being as decisive as the pace/tactics might be and in those races above it has been the prominent stalker who has prevailed and if we look at this field's last few efforts...

...it would appear that Dion Baker will set the pace of the race and thus become the target to be picked off by the likes of Porfin, who seems to have the best pace/draw profile here.

Summary

A poor race full of poor runners, but one of them will win and I hope it's Porfin. He won here over course and distance four starts ago and has been a runner-up at Wolverhampton in each of his last two outings, so he's in good nick. He's only 3lbs higher than his last winning mark and scored well on Instant Expert. Tie that in with his seemingly excellent pace/draw profile and he's the one to beat for me here.

On level terms Bluebells Boy is probably the 'best' in the the race, but he's up 7lbs from his own last course an distance win and seems unsuited by the pace/draw. That said, I fully expect him to be in the mix.

Aside from those two, I've little enthusiasm for the others and without seeing a market for the race (it's only 2.40pm Tuesday as I write this), it's hard to suggest an E/W possible, but maybe Moreginplease or Havana Smoke?



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/07/24

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with one of obviously more interest than the other. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.15 Nottingham
  • 4.00 Beverley
  • 4.15 Nottingham
  • 7.30 Kempton

And Sod's Law dictates that's the less interesting runner from The Shortlist that runs in one of our 'free' races, but hat race is still the most appealing of the four listed, so let's focus on Drama and his eight opponents in the 7.30 Kempton, a Class 4, A/W handicap for three year old runners over a straight 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win last time out, but featured runner Drama was a runner-up as was Tennessee Gold, whilst Gutsy Girl was third for the second race in a row since reappearing from a nine-month break. Rosa Applause was fourth here over course and distance denying her a hat-trick and True Promise has won two of his four career starts.

Secret Bid is two from five, Drama won two starts ago, Tennessee Gold was a winner three races back and both Media Shooter and Boann are two from seven, leaving just Eulace Peacock without a 'recent' win or win of any kind, as he's 0 from 7 career starts.

Eulace Peacock has moved yards since his last defeat 14 weeks ago and now debuts for Martin Dunne, making just a second handicap appearance, as do Rosa Applause and Gutsy Girl. Eulace Peacock's cause won't be helped by a step up in class, though as both he and Tennessee Gold move up from Class 5, whilst True promise and Media Shooter drop one and two classes respectively.

We know that Eulace Peacock hasn't raced for 14 weeks, but all of his rivals have raced in the last 15 (Boann) to 31 (Media Shooter) days, which might put this out of form runner at yet another disadvantage.

As a seven-race maiden, he clearly has no course or distance wins to his name, but of his eight rivals, only Secret Bid has yet to win over today's trip, whilst Drama, Media Shooter, Boann and Tennessee Gold have all prevailed over course and distance...

Instant Expert backs up Drama's position on The Shortlist, but also shows the most experienced runner in the field (13 starts), Media Shooter, in a really good light too...

Obviously Eulace Peacock has no winning form and Gutsy Girl makes an A/W debut after finishes of 4133 on the Flat, whilst True Promise's 2 from 2 A/W record is from the tapeta at Newcastle. Tennessee Gold might well be receiving weight from most of these, but he's now 11lbs higher than his last win (C&D three starts ago) and 3lbs higher than two subsequent defeats, so he might be in the assessor's grip.

The place stats tell a similar story to the win stats and are fairly self-explanatory...

Let's now look at the draw, because there really shouldn't be a massive bias over a straight six furlongs on an artificial surface, but here's the data from the last couple of years...

And whilst there does seem a gradual decline in success the higher a horse is drawn, I wouldn't personally says that there's a huge advantage in getting a low draw. It is certainly useful and the likes of Tennessee Gold, Gutsy Girl and Secret Bid will be pleased, but I suspect that (as in most sprints) pace will be the key to the race and here we're looking (as in most sprints) for prominent/front runners...

...which based on the field's recent exploits, could be good news for Rosa Applause, but not so great for Tennessee Gold

Summary

It's a pretty open contest here and I agree with the market as of 5.15pm Monday, in that any one of at least five runners could win this...

...but I think that pace wins the race and that the in-form front runner Rosa Applause is the one for me at 9/2. She's in great nick, her yard are firing at the moment and they have a good record at this venue. Her jockey rides well here and he's also in good form, so it's Rosa Applause for me. Yes, she was just over 1.25 lengths behind Drama last time out, but she's 5lbs better off here and that swings it.

I'd expect good runs from the likes of Drama and Media Shooter based on their past records under similar circumstances, but Secret Bid might just be worth an E/W bet at 12/1 as he drops to 6f for the first time. He likes to be up with the pace and having weakened in the final furlong on his last two efforts over 7f, the drop to 6 might just suit.



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Racing Insights, Monday 15/07/23

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 3.50 Downpatrick
  • 5.50 Killarney
  • 7.25 Killarney
  • 8.10 Wolverhampton
  • 8.20 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to have a quick look at the 8.20 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

FORM : Fast Steps, Expert Witness and Morcar all won their last races and God of Fire comes here on a hat-trick. pink Lily has won two of her last three, whilst only Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are winless in at least seven races, having been beaten in their previous ten, seven and eight outings respectively.

CLASS : All four LTO winners are up one class here, as is the fast-finishing Tribal Wisdom who was a half-length runner-up to Morcar last time around. Pink Lily also steps up in class after failing to complete a hat-trick when only fourth of five at Newmarket. Spirit of the Bay should find this a little easier today, as she drops down a class after finishing 6th of 7 over 1m2f here at Windsor, beaten by more than eight lengths a fortnight ago.

LAST RACE : All thirteen runners have had at least one run in the last five (God of Fire) to thirty-one (New Heights) days, so all should be race-tuned.

COURSE/DISTANCE RECORDS : Only the out of form trio of Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are yet to win over today's trip, whilst all four course winners (Fast Steps, Silver Gunn, Morcar and Monteria) have won over course and distance and for more stats we now turn to Instant Expert, where Fast Steps is probably the eye-catcher if any...

Only the out of form trio of Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are yet to win over today's trip, whilst all four course winners (Fast Steps, Silver Gunn, Morcar and Monteria) have won over course and distance and for more stats we now turn to Instant Expert, where Fast Steps is probably the eye-catcher if there is one...

New Heights and Morcar should also like the underfoot conditions, but Silver Gunn is 0 from 5 on good to firm, the same record that both New Heights and Morcar have at Class 4, whilst the trip seems to have been an issue for Silver Gunn, Spirit of the Bay and Tribal Wisdom, but at least Spirit of the Bay is now rated 6lbs lower than her last win with Fast Steps, God of Fire, Expert Witness and Pink Lily all at 5/6 lbs higher than their last wins.

From a place perspective...

Fast Steps still looks the one to beat but from the going/class/course/distance categories Expert Witness also has two blocks of green and is untried at class/track and at this stage, the ones I'm still interested in are...

Previous similar races haven't shown much in the way of a draw bias, but that's not entirely unexpected over a trip of this distance with both left and right handed turns...

...but this is where our feature of the day, the pace data, comes into its own. Those races above were quite fairly shared out through the various sectors of the stalls, but they were dominated by front-runners...

...who won 24% of the races by providing just 10.2% of the runners and also accounted for over 18.5% of the placers, so whilst the draw might not make or break a runner's chances here at Windsor, there's certainly an advantage in being up with the pace and if we consider how these horses have approached their last few races...

...that's got be a positive for the likes of God of Fire, Expert Witness, Morcar and Pink Lily.

Summary

Fast Steps was the standout from Instant Expert and is a former course and distance winner and would probably be my pick, but for the way he has been ridden in recent races. He's going to need to get involved a little sooner here if he's to win and with that not certain to happen, I'll keep him as a placer rather than a winner.

I'm going to then take the first two from the pace list of God of Fire, Expert Witness, Morcar and Pink Lily, as they bring the best recent form to the table, God of Fire heads the pace charts and Expert Witness was the other standout from Instant Expert.

All of which gives me God of Fire, Expert Witness and Fast Steps as my three against the field. Expert Witness' LTO win came over this trip at Salisbury four weeks ago and she beat God Of Fire by a length and three quarters off equal weights. God of Fire is two from two since then and will now carry 3lbs more than Expert Witness, so I'm going to side with Expert Witness here.

We'd no odds available at 3.30pm on Sunday (early dart for the football!), so here are the best 'guesstimates' from Oddschecker, Racing Post and Timeform respectively...

...which suggest there might be a bit of value in the price for Expert Witness here.



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