In this extended double edition of Gold Nuggets, I cover two topics that I feel are super important for sharpening our understanding of value:
1. Result REviews: this is about looking back at the bigger priced winners on the day and trying to find snippets of form/data that gave the winner a chance. The objective is to a) better understand that every horse has some sort of chance, and b) start thinking more about that chance in terms of the odds available.
2. Creating a 'Tissue': That follows neatly into PREviewing a race and using the available information to rank horses in approximately order of their chance, and then to try to create a 'tissue' or odds line from the information you've aggregated. It's a great way of honing your skills and isolating value. Remember, we're comparing the tissue prices we come up with against the Starting Price market, not the early prices!
Don't forget, you can speed me up by clicking the little cog icon bottom right on the video, selecting 'Playback Speed' and then your choice from there - maybe 1.5x
Contents:
00:00 Introduction
01:40 Reviewing Results scene setter
03:15 Classy Al
11:45 Easy to find 20/1 winner (with Geegeez Gold!)
21:50 Point and shoot pace angle winner
25:15 Setting up your tissue on Geegeez Gold
26:15 Tissue overview: race helicopter view
30:50 Horse note taking
1:03:30 Converting notes into odds/probabilities
1:10:05 Comparing tissue with early prices
1:12:25 Summary: why we should do this from time to time
UPDATE: It's fair to say that I significantly under-estimated the chance of Love Your Work in the market. Incredibly, to my eye at least, he was sent off an odds-on shot. Regardless of the result (he was only fourth), I felt 4/6 was way too short - though I probably should have had him no bigger than 3/1 and just got it wrong, plain and simple.
Bookmark was extremely weak in the betting, presumably looking less than cherry ripe on his seasonal debut, but ran a very good race to be a closing third; he'll be an interesting one going forward. Swinton Noon was never going and ran as though something wonky, while Spantik was tenacious and stayed on well (as expected) in second (not expected) but just didn't have the pace to match Carrigillihy. Whatwouldyouknow and Quoteline Direct were fifth and sixth, pretty much in line with how I had them priced up.
The winner returned 5/1 and was 7/2 joint favourite on my tissue; second was 11/1 (7/1 on my tissue); and the third was 12/1 (7/2jf on my tissue). So a good race for me on this occasion but, it bears repeating, when the price disparity is as big as it was with Love Your Work (and Bookmark), it is more often than not the tissue compiler who has it wrong!
After a fortnight off, it's the return of Gold Nuggets, a (usually) weekly vidcast where I try to bring the Geegeez Gold toolkit to life for you, so that you can go and do some good (or gooder!) stuff for yourselves.
In this week's instalment, I reveal the reports I use to know more at the start of the flat turf season; and I also introduce Draw Analyser as a research tool that can put you miles in front of your fellow (non-geegeez) bettors. Next week, I'll dig further into that tool as well as illustrating some ways to profile individual horses for profit. That's for the future, but now let's get to today's Gold Nuggets...
Featuring:
00:00 Intro 01:28 Reports overview 02:36 The Shortlist 05:10 Trainer Jockey Combo Report 06:52 Report Angles [See also first link below] 08:35 Trainer Statistics 14 Day view 13:55 Trainer 1st Handicap Start 16:10 Trainer Change Report 18:40 Trainer 2yo 1st Start Report 21:40 Draw Analyser [See also second link below]
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/goldnuggets.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-03-30 17:53:402022-03-30 17:53:40Gold Nuggets #9: Prepping for the Flat Season, Part 1
Today we introduced another new feature, this time a relatively simple one called 'My Races'. The concept is merely to allow users to 'pin' races of interest to the top of what can often be a very long list of races, especially during the summer, and on Saturdays and Bank Holidays.
To select a race, just click the star to the left; and to deselect, click the same star a second time.
Here's a short three-minute video showing how you can use 'My Races' in conjunction with the racecard filters to rapidly whittle your idea of the wheat from the remaining chaff.
Week 2 of Gold Nuggets and, wouldn't you just know it, the racing is pants. That makes trying to identify interesting horses and angles tricky. In spite of that, I've a staying chaser with a jockey worth noting, a fit and versatile flat 'capper whose last run can be readily forgiven, a wide drawn pace horse in a truly awful contest, and a quick thought about the draw and pace on Southwell's new tapeta surface.
Pro tip: if I speak a little slowly for you, use the cog icon bottom right to change the playback speed.
In this first in a new series of videos and blog posts, I'll be looking at various elements of Geegeez Gold in search of a value approach, and maybe a value winner or two along the way as well.
Today's episode focuses on the importance of heavy ground form; and run style at a couple of courses and distances on the all weather.
Pro tip: if I speak a little slowly for you, use the cog icon bottom right to change the playback speed.
Ask a racing trainer or jockey, or a professional bettor, which is the best all-weather track in Britain and they'll likely tell you Lingfield or Kempton or perhaps Newcastle or even Chelmsford. What they won't say is Southwell. But all that looks about to change with the debut this tea time of the Rolleston venue's new tapeta surface.
It has been widely held that, conformationally, Southwell is the best oval in British all-weather racing, but its fibresand surface was a thoroughly marmite affair for horsemen and women, and their horses. To succeed on the fibresand you needed a relentless galloper who could either get out in front or stomach the fierce kickback.
But the fibresand is no more, and the best all-weather course layout is now married to a 'latest generation' version of tapeta that has been wooing all-comers in racing trials in recent weeks. And, from four o'clock this afternoon, we'll all be able to see for ourselves how it rides.
Available now
Here at geegeez.co.uk we're mindful that the surface change is material. To that end, we've introduced a new 'surface' filter on both Full Form and Profiler. These filters allow users to see how a horse has performed on the various different synthetic cushions as well as turf.
You'll find the Full Form surface filter in the 'Course' block:
Selecting it will show only those form lines on a corresponding surface. In the case of Southwell now, that means only tapeta past performances:
Profiler also now differentiates between surfaces:
Still to come
I'm aware that as a consequence of the surface change, historical draw and run style biases - as well as sectional pars - may now be redundant. But they also might not. Moreover, it is likely that in the short term there will be a 'bedding in' period which may not reflect any longer-term draw and/or pace prejudices that come to pass. With that in mind, I'm loathe to simply start again from zero but, depending on how the first few weeks - and perhaps months - go, we may add the surface stipulation to our historical Southwell draw/pace tables and charts, and to our par calculations.
With regards to the Draw and Pace Analyser tools, there is no intention to change those. Users looking to explore Southwell performance there should, in due course, select the year 2022 to [another future year]. This will display all tapeta data bar meetings between now and year end, five fixtures in all.
The feeling from the trial day is that the surface may still favour led and prominent early run styles, so it will be interesting to see if that plays out.
Hopefully that all makes sense. Any questions, please ask in the comments below.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/hammergun2.jpg389830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-12-07 10:14:182021-12-07 10:14:18A New Era Begins at Southwell Today
The final upgrades to Geegeez Gold for 2021 can be seen strutting their stuff in the video below... or for those who prefer words and pictures, I've outlined them on this page beneath the vid 👇
The headlines:
- Profiler gets charts!
- Profiler gets PRB!!
- Full Results get sexier sectional charts!!!
- Proximity Form is now a Racecard Options option!!!!
What's New in Geegeez Gold?
PRB on Profiler
Profiler has rapidly gained a sizable fan base, and hardly surprising as it readily cuts through the form to showcase optimal conditions for horses, trainers and sires - and even the odd jockey. This round of upgrades has a few treats for those Profiler fans, none bigger perhaps than the addition of PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) to the Profiler tables.
This new column, found on the right hand side, tells us how a horse (or trainer or jockey or sire) performed against the variable, and the sub-categories within it. For example, if you wanted to know how progeny of Frankel have fared by going, you can view that by win and each way percent, and now also via the PRB data.
A PRB of 0.50 equates to 50% of rivals beaten, in other words "we beat as many horses are we were beaten by", while 0.55 or better is a good performance and 0.45 or lower is a poor performance in general terms. With Frankel here, we'd expect him to go well and he does; but he does best away from soft or heavy turf. [The blue highlighted row is the going of the race in question and not really relevant to what I'm trying to illustrate].
PRB can be especially useful when the sample sizes are smaller, as every performance - be it a win, a place or a last placed finish - is awarded a score.
Charts on Profiler
Whoop! We've added charts to Profiler. You can view the data in line or bar format, and may select any of the variables within Profiler from a dropdown. Thereafter you can chart that variable against any of win strike rate, each way strike rate, win profit/loss, each way profit/loss, and of course, PRB.
Here's that going PRB in bar chart format:
And here is the line chart version:
There are controls on the line version, which include zooming in and out, and exporting to an image or csv file.
Also on Profiler...
We've also moved the Trainer, Jockey and Course variables to the bottom of the list. This is simply because they have so many rows that it can make scrolling down the Profiler page a little unwieldy. They're still present, of course, just a bit further down as a means of rendering the rest of the information more accessible.
Proximity Form: Racecard Options item
Proximity Form is a handy gauge of how well a horse ran based on the distance it was beaten. But, until now, users needed to select it via Full Form each time they logged in. Hereafter, it's simply a case of checking the box on your My Geegeez page:
The Px Form traffic lights will then automagically appear on the left hand side of your Full Form:
Full Result Sectional Chart Makeover
Finally, we've also deployed the same charting software we use on Profiler and Full Form for our sectional timing charts on full results. They look nice. 😊
Hovering over a runner name (or 'Par') at the bottom of the chart will highlight that line, making it easier to view the context. Hovering over a point on the chart will, as before, bring up a bunch of info about the horse at that point during the race.
Extra Racecard Filters
And finally, as an unadvertised bonus (!), we're also bringing you a couple of extra race filters on the racecards menu page. They are:
- A breakdown of National Hunt races by race code
- A breakdown of race type by handicap or non-handicap (replacing handicap or all)
These filters should be online later this week... everything else is live right now. Hopefully there's something of interest for you in the above.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/newcharts.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-11-30 19:18:032021-11-30 19:18:03Geegeez Gold Upgrades: December 2021
As longer term readers/subscribers will know, we're constantly investing in improving geegeez.co.uk and, in particular, the toolkit that is Geegeez Gold. In the past year and a half, we've added a new metric (Percentage of Rivals Beaten), the Profiler tab in the cards, a more mobile friendly version of the entire site, new reports for 1st time headgear and sectional fast finishers, and a whole host of smaller changes.
Many of those changes were perhaps geared towards more dedicated or experienced bettors; mindful of that, we wanted to do something that would have broader appeal and, arguably, would be more accessible to our army of casual/time-pressed players. And so, I'd like to introduce you to Bet Finder, the sixth tool in the Geegeez Gold kit bag, and free to all registered users for the remainder of September.
To help you get up and running straight away, there is a video below where I put Bet Finder through its paces and, after that, some words and pictures about the new tool for those who prefer to read than to listen.
What exactly is Bet Finder?
Bet Finder is a tool that allows the quick filtering of the hundreds of horses entered each day down to a handful of interest to you. It is literally push button easy to use.
Consisting of two tabs - Filters and Qualifiers - we begin on the Filters view, which looks like this:
Above is the 'fully open' view, and users can hide or show all sections with the '+' and '-' buttons top left:
Clicking on any blue header block will open that specific section. Here I've opened the 'Basic Filters' section:
There are buttons top right for 'Today' and 'Tomorrow', and to 'Reset' the filters.
[Note that when looking at the 'Tomorrow' data, some ratings do not get published until the evening.]
Selecting a filter will highlight it and reduce the value in brackets on the Qualifiers tab button - the number of qualifying horses satisfying the selected criteria.
In the example above, I've selected 'Beaten Favourite last time out' and 'Up in Class'. The Qualifiers tab tells me there are three horses matching those criteria.
Clicking the 'Qualifiers' button displays them:
The qualifier table can be sorted by any of the column headings, and clicking on the race time will take you to the race in question for further analysis if you're that way inclined.
There is a green 'CSV' button top right in the 'Qualifiers' view from which users may download the filtered list of qualifiers.
Beneath the Bet Finder tool itself is an explanation of what the filters are. Here, for example, are the explainers for 'Advanced Trainer Form Positive':
Where can I find the Bet Finder tool?
Bet Finder can be found from the Tools page here, or from the Tools menu anywhere on site.
Do I have access to Bet Finder?
If you want it, yes! From now until the end of September, Bet Finder is free to all registered users. From October onwards, it will move into the premium Geegeez Gold service.
If you're not already a registered subscriber, you can register here. If you are, and/or you're a Gold subscriber, just make sure you're logged in and go to the Bet Finder page.
I very much hope you'll find this new tool useful, and if you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please do share them in the 'replies' space below.
And if you're enjoying some success with a particular combination of filters and are happy to share, please do!
The second of three articles requested by readers was on the subject of the Profiler tab, which we introduced to Geegeez Gold racecards this time last year. So, in this post, I'll show you how it works and outline some use cases, including how you can get around the inflexibility of 'today's race conditions'.
I've recorded a video for those who prefer to watch/listen, and below that is a written version of the same (or very similar content). These links will take you to any specific section you might be interested in.
Profiler is a racecard tab that breaks a horse's (or jockey's or trainer's or sire's) form down by a range of race condition variables. In the example image below for a horse called Raha, we can see the FILTERS block at the top, common with our Full Form tab, and, beneath that, Raha's Going performance profile. All other variables are closed in the image, to highlight what is available to users.
The cyan coloured row with red edges highlights today's race condition: in this case, the going for today's race is good to soft.
WHEN should I use Profiler?
Profiler undoubtedly works best when there is a good amount of evidence in the form book. Its value is in compartmentalising that evidence such that patterns are easily visible. As such, it is typically more useful when researching the profiles of jockeys and, in my opinion, especially trainers and sires.
The example below shows trainer Paul Midgley's profile for going, distance and class.
Ignoring the cyan rows we can immediately see that he is almost a pure trainer of five-furlong sprinters, and his record at that trip is some way above his record over longer. We can also see that his all-weather form is not as good as his turf form; and we can see that his Class 1 and 2 record is inferior to lower class races, in win and place percent terms at least.
This is a five furlong race, so we can use the 'Distance' filter in the top block to narrow our analysis down only to that range. And I've also selected 'Hcap' as that is where the majority of Midgley's horses ply their trade. Let's see how the figures look now, for five furlong handicaps:
His record on good to soft or faster turf and, contrary to earlier perception, in higher class races is excellent. Note that the strike rate in Class 2 is much lower but the ROI is positive, just.
Things to be wary of with Profiler
As with all data sets, including Query Tool results, we need to be sensible and challenge the output rather than blindly accept it because we've been seduced by the black figures in the P/L column. In the example above, it makes sense that a relatively unfashionable trainer like Paul Midgley would be profitable in better class 5f handicaps while only maintaining a moderate strike rate in such company: as bettors, we have to be comfortable with long losing runs if we wish to play 7% hit rate trainers; it's not for the faint hearted, or those whose bankroll may be short stacked!
Outlying percentages or profit figures should always be treated with deep scepticism. Why is this singular condition so profitable? Does it make sense that, for example, Midgley 5f handicappers would show a positive ROI on good to soft ground particularly? Answer: almost certainly not, but his 5f 'cap runners' form on all turf going have a broadly aligned place percentage. That's far more reliable in the round.
Which leads me on to my next point: place percentages are more reliable than win percentages. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is more reliable again and we'll look to add that to Profiler at some point before too long.
HOW Should I use Profiler?
So that's what Profiler is, how it works, and a couple of things we need to be careful about. But how should we use it? While you'll quite probably have your own ideas about utility, allow me to suggest a couple. These take the form of either knowing more about today's race, or creating shortlists/QT angles/tracker entries. Let's begin with the latter.
These profiles can only be generated when a horse has run plenty, so the list of better class all-age handicaps in the second post above is instructive; but you might also run a query in Query Tool to get a list of Class 5 all weather six-furlong handicaps, for example.
Trainer Profiles
We've already looked at this to some degree with Paul Midgley above. But what if we want to test a specific scenario not linked to today's race conditions? Let's say we wanted to examine the widely-held contention that Venetia Williams-trained runners go well in deep ground over marathon trips; but alas Venetia has no runners today. Then what?
First port of call is the search box on the racecards and, having identified the person (or horse) we wish to investigate, click the arrow by their name to see if there are any upcoming entries:
In this case, Venetia has an entry later in the week. So I click on that entry to go to the racecard for it:
Hmm, it's a shorter distance good ground novice race. Does that matter? Not necessarily. I go to the Profiler tab, RESET MY FILTERS (important!), and then select the TRAINER button and Venetia's runner:
In the above, I've also chosen handicaps only and 'All NH'.
Now, looking at win or place strike rates in the going section can be misleading for two reasons. Firstly, races on bottomless ground generally have fewer runners than races on 'terra firmer'. And secondly, as punters, we need to know what the money impact is, so that's the ROI column.
As it happens, in this case, the ROI figures align with the win/place strike rates in that they are more positive. ROI for heavy ground is NOT positive, but it is closer to break even than for the majority of other going categories. The same is true for longer distances in the main, though not extreme distances (beyond 3m4f), although samples are small.
But the fact that this race is at 2m2f and on good ground is a bit of an obstacle to what we want to achieve in looking at deep ground and longer distances. The solution? Go to the Full Form tab for Venetia and find a recent race in which she saddled a runner on heavy ground over a trip. Here's Profiler for Royale Pagaille's astonishing performance in the Peter Marsh in January:
Note that I've selected all NH handicaps on heavy ground. We can see that those parameters were unprofitable in the last five years (the 'Heavy' line in the Going column). But looking at longer trips, it is indeed the case that there might be a small bit of juice in Venetia's heavy ground handicappers over trips from two-and-three-quarter miles or so, and up.
Sadly, though not remotely surprisingly, changing the date range to the last two years - something you absolutely should do, compare longer-term with shorter-term time frames - reveals the edge has evaporated:
But I don't want to leave you without after all this, so one Miss Williams edge that remains is in small fields:
The above is the two-year view of Venetia Williams' heavy ground handicappers (chase and hurdles) in small fields (2-7 runners). In such races she's been consistently profitable over one, two and five years. I was curious as to why, and it looks like most of them go from the front (group 4), or close to the front (3) - thanks QT!
[The 'null' run is where the run style could not be deduced from the in running comment]
Sire Profiles
Sires can be profiled in the exact same way as trainers above; and, as with trainers (and jockeys and horses), we can create either tracker or QT Angle entries - with associated notes - to be alerted of our profiles.
Unexposed Runners
A second sire use case is when trying to understand more about a horse having its first run, or its first run under different conditions. We may not be able to know how that individual horse will perform but we can get an idea of what might happen based on all runners with at least a 50% common lineage.
Here's Our New Buddy, stepping up two furlongs to a mile and a half tonight on her second handicap start:
She's been beaten far enough - 12L, 11L, 9L - in her most recent three runs for many to overlook her chance. But should they be so dismissive? Let's find out:
In Profiler, I've selected Our New Buddy and SIRE (New Approach) and Flat/Handicap/Age (3)/Distance (1m4f).
The trip should be a positive and, at this distance, progeny of New Approach have done well in lower level handicaps (see Class 3-6). I've included field size and weight as examples, though I'd not be getting too stoked about them as supporting ballast.
More credible is the bottom row of the Trainer Snippet intel on geegeez, see image below:
Our New Buddy may get whacked again this evening, but there are reasons to believe she can show more for the extended range and for the second try in handicap company.
As with all horseracing data - and indeed information in any other sphere - nothing is alpha and omega: we need to get as much awareness as we can in order to make the most informed decisions we can. Profiler is one more tool in our kit bag to that end.
Good luck,
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/profiler830x320.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-07-15 10:42:182021-07-15 11:09:10How to Use the Profiler Tab
Much has been made of sectional timing in the past 18 months or so, including by me, and it can indeed offer great insight into how races were run. But the challenge for publishers, including here at geegeez.co.uk, is to successfully answer the question, "How do I use sectional timing to inform my betting?". That will be the main focus of this article, but before that a spot of revision.
What Are Sectionals? And why should we care?
I recorded this video a little over a year ago and it is actually very good (I wouldn't normally say that about one of my recordings!) in terms of breaking things down. So, if you prefer to watch/listen rather than read, this is for you. If you prefer to read, scroll beneath the video box...
[Hint: if I speak too slowly for you, click the cog icon bottom right and change the playback speed to something more suitable]
I've written previously in some of my Clock Watcher posts about various terms and concepts related to sectionals, and those can be accessed from here.
The following blog posts are also useful if you want to really understand sectional timing concepts (and I would encourage you to block out a bit of time and work through them). They're here:
Tony's piece is quite high level and a good flavour of the subject; mine is a little lower to the ground but still overview stuff; while Simon's excellent paper is chapter and verse on both the mechanics and some practical applications of sectional data.
**
Understanding Sectional Data Terminology
Let's quickly whizz through some of the key terms and concepts applied to sectional content. First up, what even is a section?
Section
A section is simply a part of a race. A race is a 'section', though given that it is the start-to-finish section it doesn't tell us much about the sub-plots within the narrative. Sections are not quite arbitrary and they can be of varying lengths depending on who/where the intel is coming from.
Here at geegeez.co.uk, we have three different section types: by furlong, call points and OMC.
By furlong, as the name suggests, has a variable number of sections depending on how many furlongs there are in the race; 'call points' breaks a race into five roughly equal chunks; and OMC breaks a race into Opening, Middle and Closing chunks.
Sectionals
Within each section, we can establish the amount of time taken, distance travelled, and position in the race (and lengths behind the leader, or in front), as well as things like stride length and cadence (which are very much for another day).
Once we have, for instance, the sectional time, we can make comparisons: with the same horse in other race sections, with other horses in the race within the same section, and with historical data for races run over the same track and trip.
Sectional percentage
Rather than raw times, e.g. a 12 second furlong, we tend to convert those times into percentages of the overall race time, e.g. the horse completed the five furlong race in 60 seconds and recorded a 12 second furlong in the middle of the race, therefore that sectional percentage was 100% (see image). Do not get unduly hung up on the 'how'!
Finishing speed percentage
Finishing speed percentage is a sectional percentage where the 'to' of the section is the finish. For example, the section might be two furlongs out to the finish. We calculate finishing speed percentage in the same way as we do other sections, and this specific number tells us whether horses were finishing faster or slower than 100%. More pertinently, when compared with 'par', it tells us about the performance against historical standards.
This is important because some courses have, for instance, uphill finishes where the closing section will be slower than it is for level or downhill sections of the same track. Runners in all other races over that course and distance (and indeed other distances at the same course) will have encountered the same topology, allowing for comparisons. [Hopefully that makes sense]
Par
Par in the sectional context is an attempt at defining how much energy (in percentage terms) 'should' be expended in each part of a race based on our understanding of prior truly run races over the same course and distance. What is a truly run race? Good question. It is one where it can reasonably be considered that the leader at each section went close to optimally in terms of efficient use of its energy.
We calculate par not by averages but by a logarithmic scale of race rank percentiles. [Again, these are mechanics, you don't need to know this: I merely share for the more curious!]
In layman's terms, the par percentile in a five-furlong race (where most are truly run, but a fair number are overly fast) will be greater than the par percentile in a mile and a half race, where many more contests are tactical. Specifically, we use the 38th percentile to establish par for five-furlong races at a given track, and the 20th percentile for twelve furlong races.
Par is a line in the sand against which to compare performances in a race.
Enough with the terminology, how do we actually use this stuff?
**
Using Sectionals to Understand the Past, and the Future
As with all form study, sectionals provide historical performance context for today's race: they help us understand what a horse is capable of - and, importantly, what it might have to offer under a slightly more favourable setup/ride. This video outlines some scenarios to mine for and, if you prefer blog posts, beneath the video is a 'words and pictures' version of the same.
Punchbowl Flyer came into the Wokingham unbeaten in his previous two races and exited that race having finished no better than eighth of 21. But he was first home on his side of the draw and, crucially for this article, had a solid upgrade figure - see the right hand UP column in the image below.
The UP column contains sectional upgrade figures calculated based on finishing speed performance against par. A figure greater than five or so implies a horse may have been compromised by the run of the race and may have more to offer next time.
As we can see (in the middle of the image below), Punchbowl Flyer returned to winning ways just a few days later.
The coloured blobs show how PF raced in the Wokingham based on his time spent in each section: fast (orange), even to fast (yellow), even (green), slow (blue), slower (bluer)! Like many others, though to a greater degree, he went too hard too soon.
The line above the coloured blobs show his 'Future Form': a win at 11/4 in a £10k handicap.
Making a list of upgrade horses is a simple way of highlighting runners who might be ready to win soon.
Here's an example of a little novice sprint at Wolverhampton the other day, where a contested lead meant two horses completely blew each others' prospects:
Both Beauzon and Sidcot Swallet might be worth another chance if looking like getting an easy lead.
Beware the well beaten outsider with a big upgrade figure
Sometimes you'll see a big upgrade against a no-hoper beaten half the track. Remember, the figure is calculating inefficiency, and you'll find a few horses who were ridden inefficiently but who likely would not have been competitive even under an ultra-efficient ride. Here's an example:
Juriste, a 66/1 shot, was beaten 26 lengths in this 1m6f contest. He might be capable of a lot better but the balance of probabilities is that he's flattered by his upgrade figure of 12. As with all form reading, we still have to make subjective judgements along the way, though most are fairly clear-cut.
Big Upgrades in Slowly Run Races
Upgrade figures are NOT speed figures. They are 'inefficiency calculations'. When I was first playing with our UP numbers I tried applying them to a pure speed rating (Topspeed, though that's academic). They didn't really tell me anything, which wasn't a surprise as the two scales (UP and TS) are totally unrelated. But what I did discover, again far from a shock, was that bigger upgrades often occurred when the race was slow early.
That doesn't mean the upgrade figure has less merit; far from it. It is very useful to know, objectively, which horses are capable of producing a notable gear change off a steady gallop if today's race looks like being steadily run.
Fast Finishers
A second 'use case' for sectional data, and kind of a subset of the first one in a way, is identifying horses whose finishing effort was a good deal quicker than the race finishing speed as a whole. We call these fast finishers and they can be easily spotted in a couple of ways, one prescriptive and the other user-definable. Let's start with the easy way...
Easy Fast Finishers
We recently introduced a Fast Finishers report, which flags all of today's (and tomorrow's) runners that produced a finishing speed percentage which bettered the race finishing speed percentage by 2.5% or more. It looks a lot like this:
In this extremely convenient example from yesterday, the top two - based on 'sectional upgrade' (the right hand column, Sec Upg) - were tidy winners, at 3/1 and 5/1 respectively. Coincidentally, they also recorded the two largest finishing speed percentage differentials (FS% Diff). This is not usually the case.
As a side note, FS% Diff is calculated thus: ((Horse FS% / Race FS%) x 100) - 100
Taking the top one: ((105.14 / 98.52) x 100) - 100 =
(1.06719 x 100) - 100 = 106.719 - 100 = 6.719, rounded to 6.72
That's a verbose way of saying it is not Horse FS% - Race FS%!
Bespoke Fast Finishers
But what if you want to find your own performances of merit? Maybe you don't like our arbitrary '2.5% greater than race FS%' cut off. Fair enough. Here's what to do.
Open up the first result for a meeting, then select the 'OMC' and 'Sectionals' options. I also tend to have the 'Comments' open, and usually 'Running Lines' as well:
Remember to turn sectionals ON on your My Geegeez page in the 'Racecard Options' section. Default display option is 'None'.
OK, with things set up (you only have to do it once), work through the results comparing the race FS% with the runners' FS%'s. Once you find an interesting one, scout the in-running comment (and perhaps the Running Lines as well) to corroborate the numbers. Here's an example from that same Wolverhampton card where a number of beaten horses were compromised by the run of the race:
We're looking specifically at the percentage figure in the closing sectional block. Here, the race closing sectional/finishing speed percentage (3-0) is 103.3%. See the highlighted block top right.
The UP column reveals both fast and slow finishers: Punchbowl Flyer was an example of a slow finisher (did too much too soon) further up this post; and here we can see that all of Parikarma, Risaalaat, Reclaim Victory and, to a lesser degree, Castle Quarter, had too much to do.
Parikarma, whose FS% here was 106.5%, ran over a flat mile at Leicester a couple of days later and finished in similar fashion. She may win soon, perhaps over a slightly longer trip. Those others are all worth noting in their next couple of starts, assuming their general form credentials also stack up. [That is worth re-stating, though it may be quite obvious to some: a horse must have shown it is capable of competing against today's race conditions - or at least not shown it is incapable of competing - in order for any sectional insight to be useful].
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Sectional timing is a very useful means of understanding what happened in a race. As bettors, we need to be alive to horses capable of stepping forward in finishing position terms after races where they were to some degree compromised. Here at geegeez, we've tried to make the information as usable as possible via both our Fast Finishers report and our Upgrade figures, and I hope in the above you've been inspired to experiment with this data for yourself. If you're not currently a Gold subscriber, you can join us here.
Good luck,
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/img_60dc71653527e.png259894Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-06-30 17:14:292021-06-30 17:18:46Sectional Timing, and How To Use It
Just a few small tweaks this month, and some minor bug fixes.
DR / RS columns in Card form
The biggest of the small changes, for me at least, is the addition of draw (DR) and run style (RS) columns to the racecard inline form. These valuable snippets of info can help understand whether horses were compromised by their pace profile in relation to the race conditions and, by the same token, whether they were favoured by those things. In other words, whether a horse can be marked up or down for recent runs.
Of course, in the case of jumps races - as can be seen above with the 22nd December form line - the output shows only run style (RS). In case the notations are not self-explanatory, they are:
L - Led
P - Prominent
M - Midfield
H - Held up
I'm excited about this change!
Gelding notifications
We have also added a gelding notification to the cards where a horse or colt had previously raced as an 'entire' (i.e. with his testicles still attached!) but is now sans noix. We record this for the first three runs post-gelding, as g1, g2 and g3. This race today articulates the full gamut of g123:
A few other minor amends have also been taken care of, some of which you may not have even been aware were broken...
We changed the obnoxious green odds toggle on the card to a more congruent colour:
We reinstated official rating on Full Form mobile view:
We centred the 3LR label in pace data view (man, you've *no idea* how much this annoyed me!!)
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We made the season dropdown on Full Form contextual to a horse's previous run:
And we removed the 'Show/Hide Inline' buttons from the Horses for Courses and Hot Form reports. Because there was nothing to display inline!
All tiddlers in the grand scheme of things, but the ongoing removal of friction and the addition of bits of information amounts to a great deal over time. I hope there's something in the above that will make your Gold experience marginally better.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/tweaks1.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-06-09 11:12:142021-06-09 11:12:14Geegeez Gold: June 2021 Updates
Another month, another set of new features within Geegeez Gold designed to help you know more than other people about a race.
Before we start...
Did you know?
Mobile users hankering after the good old bad old days of pinch and swipe to expand the desktop view on a phone...
...can still do that!
Within the Chrome browser, tap the three dots menu option top right and then scroll down to "Desktop Site" and tap the check box. (See image)
Hey presto - it's back to the future!
If you use non-Android type of mobile device, this google search will likely find the right answer.
I hope that's helpful for anyone still struggling to come to terms with our slightly different mobile layout.
Right, back in the room. What's new in this release?
Fast Finishers report
The first of two new reports is the long-awaited Fast Finishers report. It is based on our sectional timing database and highlights horses that may have performed better - or may be capable of performing better - than first met the eye. These are typically horses that expended their energy sub-optimally for one reason or another, the contention being that with a more even distribution of their effort they could improve.
The report highlights horses which have completed the closing section of their race notably faster (2.5% or more) than the race finishing speed.
The report looks like this:
The race tempo - three coloured and labelled blocks - is included so users may compare with the pace projection in the PACE tab for today’s race.
The report can be filtered by finishing position in the ‘Fast Finisher’ race (FF Pos), number of runs since the FF race, the race finishing speed percentage (FSP), the horse FSP, and/or the sectional upgrade (Sec Upg) earned.
HINT: Look for either a recent run, or an older run where conditions match today’s. Also, importantly, consider whether the race today is likely to be run at a similar tempo to the one where the fast finish was achieved.
1st Time Headgear / Surgery Report
Also new in this release is something we're calling HS1 - no relation to the high speed rail link whose implementation polarising opinion almost as much as the two parts of the country it is slated to unite!
This view displays the two-year record of trainers running horses for the first time in specific headgear, or since undergoing publicly recorded surgery. It's a similar layout - the same, in fact - to Trainer and Sire Snippets, but naturally with different content.
Here's how it looks:
The 'All' tab is a rollup of the content from the individual headgear and surgery views, and may be the handiest digest on a daily basis.
It is worth saying that, in the main, the application of headgear should not be seen as a positive and, as such, most trainers have negative records. In the same vein, though to a lesser extent, surgical interventions imply a degree of dissatisfaction with prior track performance.
Note: horses gelded or having had wind surgery prior to their first start are excluded from the report, as are horses with a first time headgear combination (e.g. blinkers and tongue tie).
Fast Results Course Dropdown
Sometimes we just want to know the results from a single meeting, say for example when we've made a placepot bet or the like. On busier racing days it can be difficult to isolate those races of interest from the swathe of results... until now. We've added a handy course dropdown so you can get just the results from the meeting you're interested in.
It lives in the top block, here:
...and has very few surprises. In the below example, I've selected Lingfield on Saturday (where geegeez-sponsored rider Marco Ghiani recorded a near 153/1 double - go Marco!)...
Fast Results Course Dropdown
Show / hide odds toggle on racecard
Some people like to assess races blind - that is, without knowing the market - and we encourage users to try this at least from time to time as a barometer of race reading skill. To facilitate that, we already have an option on your My Geegeez page to show/hide odds.
But now we've made it even simpler to hide (and then display) the odds with a toggle button right in the race details bar. It can be found in the blue bar, and looks like this:
Odds toggle
Minor fixes / amendments
As well as the above, we've made a few bug fixes and small changes, as follows:
Removed the odds requirement when rating a race
Up until now, if you wanted to add comments or ratings into the racecard option behind the 'calculator' icon, you needed to include an estimate of odds. Now you don't if you don't want to. It's still reasonable practice to do that, in order to see how close to 100% (ish) book you can get, but it should be your choice. It is now.
By time racecard sortation fix
We recently introduced a bug to the sortation of the 'by time' view of today's races - a very useful feature, for me at least. That's fixed in this release.
CSV export on Report Angles
In line with other reports, we now have a csv export function on the Report Angles report. It's the green button top right.
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As always with new stuff, there is scope for issues to arise, either with the new stuff itself or, very occasionally, breaking something existing. If you spot anything we've missed, please do drop us a line to let us know. We'll get it sorted pronto.
Hope you like these new components. There are no game changers this time, but a good deal more helpful insight for your horseracing betting.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ffrep.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-05-25 12:37:032021-05-26 07:12:10Geegeez Gold: May 2021 Upgrades
If you logged into the geegeez racecards this morning and were surprised or confused by what you saw, sorry about that, and let me explain.
The video below highlights the four small (but highly visible) changes made, as do the words and pictures beneath the video - if you prefer to read than to watch.
Four small changes
Expandable / collapsible race meetings
We've tidied up the racecard menu page further by hiding all races behind their meeting header bar, as you can see below.
Clicking on a blue bar, for example, Naas, opens the races for that meeting:
Clicking the '+' or '-' buttons top left will expand all or collapse all meetings. Nice and tidy.
2. Added Irish racecourse info links
We've also added links to our Irish racecourse information pages. These are packed full of intel regarding course layout, draw or run style biases, top trainers and jockeys, upcoming races, recent results, latest news and more.
We now have these in place for all courses and I encourage you to check them out if you haven't already, especially for courses you're maybe less familiar with.
3. Mobile card menu tweaks
We've streamlined the mobile menu to provide more space in your device's 'viewport' for the actual race you're looking at. To do that, we simply removed some of the date buttons and placed them behind a dropdown.
As you can see below, things are a bit slicker now.
4. Added Race Conditions data
The sole 'new data' upgrade is the addition of race conditions information. This is found in the blue race bar on the right hand side. Clicking on that link reveals, inline, the conditions for the race. This is especially useful in non-handicap races where the weights horses carry are often a little confusing without such insight.
There is, as ever, more coming soon, so stay tuned!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/racecardmenuupgrades.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-04-26 10:38:182021-04-26 10:38:18Geegeez Upgrades: 26th April 2021
I'm excited to share that, later this week, we'll be introducing the new mobile version of the Geegeez Gold racecards and form tools. There will be little to no change to the desktop cards and tools, but users on tablet and mobile will see a quite distinctive new style. In the video below, I walk through how things will be in the new 'better mobile' world.
NOTE: This is change. Humans don't like change. Some things will require a little getting used to. Stick with it, please. I have, and I can tell you I now find the new mobile cards miles better than they were (and miles better than any others out there 😉 ). But, of course, I would say that, wouldn't I?!
Here's the vid...
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/mobilecards.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-03-29 19:43:012021-03-29 19:43:01Watch This! Geegeez Mobile Coming This Week
Not before time, in fact long after time is probably fairer to say, we're moving our services into the mobile world. The truth is that this has been something I've considered, and subsequently deferred, multiple times annually for the past five years.
The reason? It's really difficult to fit all of the racecard content you know and love into a smartphone screen (called a 'viewport').
My take has always been that it's better not to do something at all than to make a token effort at it, and so we've always shied from a mobile version of Geegeez Gold. Until now.
A further admission is that the reason we are working hard on a mobile version right now is that our hand has been forced somewhat. Google, who are a major source of new users discovering geegeez.co.uk, have since the start of 2021 introduced a 'mobile first' ranking policy. In plain English, if your site doesn't work well on a mobile device, you cannot expect to appear anywhere near the top of the search results. Bummer.
Anyway, that's the back story to how we've been working hard to bring the racecards and form tools fully into the mobile-iverse. And in the remainder of this article, I want to share where we've got to. As you'll see, we're not there yet; and as you'll also see we have had to make some concessions because of space constraints. It's my view that the more dedicated users will always prefer a desktop (or laptop) device to undertake their form study; but I also feel increasingly that we can offer a hefty subset of the most popular components on the smart device in your pocket. And tablet users may find their experience matches that of desktop/laptop.
IMPORTANT: THE DESKTOP VERSION YOU'RE USED TO WILL NOT CHANGE!
We're still working on the racecards and results tabs - they are the most complicated because they have the most features and functions - but the remainder of the racecards have been mobile-ized, as follows...
Cards Menu
The first page you land on when looking at a day's racing is the menu page. Desktop looks like this:
The new mobile version looks like this. The date buttons, plus search and tracker, have been neatly added at the top, with the dropdowns for all races and reports still available.
Below that, as you can see, part of the race titles cannot be seen, but these are visible by dragging across with your finger. The mobile version uses something called 'horizontal scroll' to enable users to easily view data at the right hand end of tables, and the first instance of that is on the cards menu.
Geegeez mobile racecard menu page
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Full Form
Desktop Full Form looks like this and, of course, that is a LOT of content to fit into a mobile window, especially in portrait (i.e. how we normally hold our phones: taller and thinner, rather than the shorter wider phone-on-its-side 'landscape') view.
The mobile Full Form also uses horizontal scroll in the data areas (second image below). We've recreated everything from the desktop version, including the 'show/hide' ability for Filters, Race Record, Race Entries and Race Form. These are how the Filters display on mobile.
Full Form race filters have been faithfully replicated on mobile
And here is the data content area:
Full Form data uses horizontal scroll to incorporate all information on a mobile viewport
In the above image, I've scrolled across a little so both the start and end of the table data are out of sight. Having been playing for a few days, this is a surprisingly useful way of displaying more information than there is room for on screen. [Of course, more is visible in landscape mode, i.e. if you rotate your phone 90 degrees; and tablet presents a fantastic - probably better even than desktop - experience].
Profiler
Profiler is also a complete and faithful replication of the desktop version, again using horizontal scroll to display the elements at the right hand end of tables. In this tab, most users are interested in the left hand side of the cyan highlighted rows and so this will work 'as is' for them.
Profiler works pretty much *native* on mobile
Instant Expert
Instant Expert has presented a lot of challenges, for two reasons. Firstly, it is our most popular view and so absolutely has to be the best it can be. Secondly, there is a huge amount of intel crammed into the view. Alas, those two elements are not especially compatible, so we've designed different views for portrait and landscape.
Portrait View
Looking at your phone in portrait (tall, thin) mode will display a basic overview of Instant Expert:
Instant Expert in portrait is a basic overview of the relevant form credentials of the field
We've retained 'win/place', 'all/hcap' and the date range filters, as well as the horse/trainer/jockey/sire and race code dropdown options. But we were unable to include the ratings column or the range dropdowns (e.g. going from soft to heavy, etc) in this view.
You'll also notice that the columns have gone from three colour blocks to one - again due to space limitations. The numbers in the blocks are 'runs' (for instance, Al Ozzdi has had three runs on today's going, the 'Go' column) and column sortation is done on the basis of percentages. While that is confusing on the face of it, it enables the retention of two key pieces of information: first, sorting by the horse with the best performance in percentage terms; and second, understanding how many runs that percentage was achieved against (i.e. not discounting a horse who has failed only once against a given criterion and, equally, not marking up a horse too much for going well just once against a given criterion).
Hopefully that all makes sense: the summary is that we've distilled all we can in terms of the available space. And I'm pretty happy with what we've achieved here.
Landscape View
In landscape - with your phone viewed on its side - you will see a much more familiar Instant Expert. Indeed, you'll see everything as you'd expect, including the inline form when tapping on a colour block.
Landscape Instant Expert is very close to the existing desktop version
All sortation of columns etc works as you know and love, and I'm delighted we've been able to exactly replicate the existing Instant Expert on mobile devices. It was a lot more fiddly than might first appear!
Pace
The pace tab is another that fits perfectly on your phone when viewed in landscape (side on), and we again use horizontal scroll to allow you to see everything in the more natural portrait mode. Here's portrait:
Pace tab is replicated faithfully and uses horizontal scroll for its portrait mode
Again, I've found this to be highly user-friendly even in portrait mode, and a big step up on the current messing around with pinch and zoom involved when out and about.
Draw
Draw is a clean experience even in portrait, the two slight changes being horizontal scroll to access the right hand columns in the tables; and the charts being a little more 'square' than is the case on desktop.
Top section of mobile draw tap in portrait mode
I've scrolled across to the right of the table in the above screenshot. As you can see, there are a lot of data in there, so we've added faint grey divider lines to break it up a touch. Still, it is a dense forest of numbers, I grant you.
Below is the heat map in mobile portrait view.
Draw Pace Heat Map in portrait mode
Odds
The odds view is a simple one and, though we've moved the form and 'best' columns, I don't think we've lost any of the value of this quick digest of the market.
Mobile odds tab view
Next Steps
So that's where we're at with the development. Right now, we're working on the card and results tabs, which will not include all current features I'm afraid - at least not in portrait mode - simply because of space constraints. Indeed, they will likely look more different than any of the other tabs (except portrait Instant Expert). After that, I'll need to go over everything to ensure it all 'hangs together' as it should. We will be working through the report suite and form tools as well in due course, but the main focus at this time has been on the racecards.
It's always a kiss of death to put release date timescales on these things, so what follows is assuming no major dramas manifest in the coming days: I hope we'll have the mobile cards live before the end of the month. *crosses fingers - and, indeed, legs*
This has been a thorny technical challenge because we didn't build 'from the ground up' but, rather, repurposed our existing content into a mobile format. But we're building it intuitively and to add as much value as possible while you're away from your desk. I promise, bathroom break form study will have never felt so good!
Matt
p.s. we are also working on sectional 'fast finishers' features which ought to be on stream in March. So much to follow in 2021: we're always re-investing in your Geegeez 🏆
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/frogonthebog.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-02-10 11:24:022021-02-10 13:00:19Sneak Preview: Geegeez is going Mobile
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