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Royal Ascot 2026: Day 2 Preview, Trends, Tips

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It's Day Two, Wednesday, at Royal Ascot and we have seven more top class races to watch / puzzles to solve. They are led off by the juvenile fillies but, before that, a couple of reminders...

Reminder 1: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Wednesday trends page here

Reminder 2: we've got a free £50 Tix competition every day. Bet £5 or more into the placepot/jackpot pools via Tix and, if you played the highest ROI ticket on the day, you'll get an extra £50 - on top of the 5% bonus paid to ALL winning bets placed through Tix. Click here to take part

 

Our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race
(*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).

 

 

2.30 THE QUEEN MARY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

Trends

All of the last 11 UK and Irish trained winners had run in the last 50 days.
10 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had won at least one of their last two races.
9 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had won 50% of their races.
11 of the last 15 winners had their last run over 5f (or less).
14 of the last 18 winners were sent off 4/1 or shorter last time out.
8 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners won their last race.
7 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had suffered at least one defeat.
11 of the last 15 winners had run once or twice in their career.
All 33 horses that last raced at Windsor have been beaten.
Since 2003, all 28 runners that last ran on the UK AW have been beaten.

Race Analysis

It's the race that Wesley Ward has had most success in (four wins) and it seems to have spurred a couple of his compatriots to join him on a trans-Atlantic mission this year. With a runner from France also set to line up it gives a truly international feel to the race.

We'll start by removing the maidens, those outside the top 3 last time, those which haven't won 50% of their career races and any that last ran on the all-weather. 11 of the last 12 winners have been drawn 10 or higher (6 of the last 11 were drawn 20+) with the US Speedball Campanelle the only one to recently defy a low draw when coming out of stall 1 in 2020.

If we apply these trends and look for those with a high draw we can reduce the field down to nine possibles.

Wesley Ward runs two with Ruiva subject of a few good reports and apparently his number one hope after trouncing her field over 4 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs. As is usual for the Ward juveniles she made all that day and I'm guessing we can expect similar tactics here from a favourable draw. She's yet to race on turf although Ward assures us she worked fantastic on the surface the other day. Only time will tell if she can handle the start, the surface and a jockey who has never raced outside of North America before.

That's too many maybe's for me and I'm happy to look elsewhere.

His other runner, Shining Moment, was equally impressive when also making all the running at Churchill Downs but she did it on the 5f turf track and that may be in her favour. The booking of jockey Oisin Murphy is eyecatching and I think she'll run a big race at a big price from an even more favourable draw (21).

But the Ward runner was really put in her place on debut by another American raider, MORE CHAMPAGNE, and has 6 1/2 lengths to find with that rival from their encounter on the turf at Keeneland back in April. Shining Moment pulled far too hard that day and set a ferocious pace up front making her a sitting duck as she swung into the straight. It was therefore no surprise to see her fold tamely in the last half furlong or so which allowed More Champagne, who had enjoyed the perfect run through the race, an easy victory as she came up alongside beautifully before quickening away to the line. The front two were miles clear of the rest of the field.

Coming out of stall 14 the Thomas Morley-trained filly should get another fast pace to aim at and, unlike the Ward filly, her jockey, John Velazquez, is no stranger to Ascot with four wins to his name at the Royal meeting. I think she's a cracking each way bet with five places on offer with most of the bookmakers.

 

Suggestion: More Champagne 1/2pt EW 14/1 (5 places)

 

 

Tix Pointers: In the past 11 years, there were four winning favourites and three second picks coming home in front. The jolly placed in two of the other four years, with another second choice making the frame in 2018... but in 2024 we got 22/1 (co 10th fav of 4), 50/1, 50/1. Incredibly, the placepot only paid £916.60 that day, the rest of the results being much more punter-friendly.

High drawn horses have an excellent record, especially on quicker ground.

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3.05 THE QUEEN'S VASE (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Formerly a two-miler the Queen's Vase was foreshortened to a mile and three-quarters in 2017, and at the same time was elevated to Group 2 status in recognition of the importance of the staying Pattern for the health of the breed. That decision was instantly vindicated as the first winner of the new version was the mighty Stradivarius, who would go on to carry all before him for the next six seasons.

If hoping for the emergence of another such luminary seems somewhat fantastical, it is a more realistic aspiration that the list of Group 1 winners - including Queen's Vase / St Leger doublers Kew Gardens and Eldar Eldarov - might be extended.

Favoured this time is the Andrew Balding-trained Galiyan, stepping out of maiden company after a solid staying effort at Chester's May meeting over a mile and a half. Three of the last five winners were unraced at two and twice raced at three, so there are precedents. That said, two of that trio won Listed contests on their previous start, and the third was sent off a more agreeable 15/2 when claiming his QV. Galiyan looks very short on what he's achieved to date - he must be really good at home.

There's a bit more form meat on the Limestone bone, Joseph O'Brien's New Bay colt having won the Listed Yeats Stakes last time. That was the same stepping stone deployed by connections of last year's winner, Carmers, which add further to this one's appeal. Limestone has a nice level of experience, which perhaps means he lacks the upside of some of his peers; nevertheless it was a significant step up in form when significantly stepped up in trip for the first time at Navan. He's yet to race on good or quicker.

Aidan rolls the stamina dice with Port Of Spain, a lesser Ballydoyle light heretofore, and beaten in a handicap last time out. In his defence, that handicap was the kingmaker London Gold Cup at Newbury, where he didn't get the smoothest of trips and was beaten four lengths. By St Mark's Basilica out of a Duke Of Marmalade mare, there's a murmur of robustness in the blood lines; mostly, though, this is a trust play: Aidan has a hundred - literally - colts to aim at this race, and Port Of Spain is the nomination. He's got it right six times in the last 13 years meaning a win this time would grant him 50% of the winners over 14 years. Still, I'm having to squint pretty hard, and away from the actual form book to make his case.

Asakir looked all over the winner of the Yeats Stakes before ceding to Limestone late on. Limestone had led the field for more than half the race before three horses went by him; then, in the final quarter mile, Asakir cruised to the front before getting chased down by the winner. The pair pulled eight clear of a fancied APO'B runner and the form looks good. In the back of my mind I'm wondering if a different ride on Asakir could reverse placings with Limestone - at the respective prices, I want to crystallise that image. He is another yet to race on a sound surface and is not necessarily bred for it; but I'm getting out of my lane with that sort of chat.

The stoutly bred Del Maro - by Camelot out of a Maxios mare who herself won the German Oaks - was born to be good. Unfortunately, the numbers on his form profile don't quite match that smart pedigree, yet. The extra three furlongs and a bigger field should place more emphasis on staying power, and that should elicit improvement notwithstanding this will be his eighth start compared with some having only their third. He is another who can conceivably go well.

There's a Royal runner in this field's midst, too. Point Of Law was a clearcut winner of a Newbury maiden last time despite looking very green on his second career start. Always handy, they quickened off a steady early tempo and I'd be inclined to mark up a couple of the beaten horses more than the winner. None of the four to race again from that day has won, the third and fourth both finding one too good since. The Gosden stable won this, as referenced, with Stradavarius in 2017 and also with Gregory in 2023. The latter's profile was not dissimilar though he'd already secured Listed honours by the time he arrived at Ascot.

Still they come. Unbeaten in two Ravenspire runs for the Executors of the Late Sheikh Mohamed Obaid and Karl Burke, and he's probably a tad over-priced for all that he's achieved very little in those two small fields novice scores. And Archie Watson's decent Royal Ascot record means Wareeth - two from three either side of a clunk in Listed company - cannot be wholly ignored. He's bred stoutly and could enjoy this half mile longer trek.

Suggestion: Lots of possibles, including Port Of Spain for which I'm hard pressed to make a case (which normally means I've missed something material). That Yeats Stakes form is probably above average and both the winner and second, Limestone and Asakir, have cases to be made assuming they handle the terra firmer. Of the rest, Galiyan is too short but has obvious potential; and Del Maro could make the frame.

Try 7/2 Limestone for the win, and/or 9/1 Asakir or 14/1 Del Maro each way.

 

Tix Pointers: Consistently one of the more predictable races at the meeting, with five winning favourites joined by the same number of second favourites prevailing, and a brace of third choices since 2013. Indeed, the longest priced winner bar one was 15/2 (beat the favourite). When Aidan shocked us with 33/1 Sword Fighter in 2016, the 8/1 fourth favourite hit the frame, too.

As well as Aidan (obvs), look out for Charlie A and Andrew B, both of whom have saddled more than a third of their runners into the frame.

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3.40 THE DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by David Massey

A bigger field than is normally the case for the Duke Of Cambridge this year, although we did have fourteen runners a couple of years ago. Which was nice.

John & Thady Gosden have won this three times in the last five years so it makes some sense to start with Friendly Soul. Yes, the Mare That Closed Haydock DownTM, or something, thankfully returns here in one piece, and for all her quirks she looked in good form at Haydock before the incident, bowling along happily on the front and yet to be asked to go about her business when the hole appeared, and she was quickly pulled up. Essentially, take Haydock and the Musidora run - when she hung her chance away - out of the equation and you’ve got a very talented mare with some top-class efforts to her name. And that includes a defeat of Kalpana in the Pretty Polly back in the day, lest we forget. Nicely drawn in stall 5, she’ll have the hard-pulling Falakeyah to take her into the race and she looks the one to beat, assuming all is well after that last day mishap.

Blue Bolt has been made early favourite for this. Her best piece of form to date came when second in the Sun Chariot last year, that run capping off a season where she did nothing but improve and gave the impression she’d be even better at four. She didn’t need to be at her best to win the Listed Conqueror Fillies Stakes on her reappearance and she won with plenty in hand, backed off the boards to do so (Kon Tiki, She’s Perfect and Arisaig in behind). She’s clearly smart and, for all she’s bred to get a bit further than a mile, she isn’t short of speed; she is just about the right favourite if short enough on balance, though.

Hold-up performers have had their share of success in this in recent times (think Crimson Advocate last year, Rogue Millenium in 2023 and Indie Angel in 2021) and if they do go a step too quickly then the strong-travelling Catalina Delcarpio looks the one to be with. Her only disappointment (I say disappointing, it really wasn’t a bad effort) came in the Ribblesdale last year when she appeared not to quite see out the twelve furlongs. I think it was that, rather than the firm ground, that caused the defeat, but in any case she looked a much-improved filly when winning the Listed Amethyst Stakes at Leopardstown last month. Responding well to pressure, she took it up with half a furlong to run, and was strong at the finish. There was a lot to like about the way she went about things there, and as long as Billy Lee finds room on her - a low draw could make things a little tricky in that regard - I think she looks the main danger to Friendly Soul.

I do like to try and make a case for an outsider, as you know, but I have to be honest with you here and say that’s proving something of a struggle. I don’t suppose it’s impossible to see Arisaig dropped out the back and Jamie Spencer trying to bring her with a late run but stall 1 is going to make that difficult, a lot of luck will be required. I have a soft spot for Dash Of Azure though, and she did run well enough in the Sandringham last year (a closing fifth at the line) to suggest a mile is within her compass, for all she’s generally been kept to seven furlongs. Stall 13 and Rossa Ryan both look positives, and maybe if there’s an each-way swing with the extra places to be had, it’s her. Watch for her late on the scene.

Selection: Dutch 9/2 Friendly Soul and 8/1 Catalina Delcarpio, or take a wild swing at 66/1 Dash Of Azure

 

Tix Pointers: John & Thady Gosden three times, and Sr. once in his sole name, have four of the most recent six renewals.

Although four-year-olds have won 12 of the past 13, five-year-olds actually have a superior place strike rate (36% vs 24%) and PRB (0.54 vs 0.5). To wit, aside from a year when the two 5yos were 33/1 and a year when there were none of that age, there's only been a single year when a mare of that age has missed the frame - of course, it was last year. The vast majority of runners are younger, but don't dismiss the fives.

Four jollies got it done since 2013, but only one since 2017. However, the first or second market choice has made the frame every year in that time.

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4.20 THE PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Rory Delargy

In terms of pure class, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes is one of the highlights of the Royal Meeting and class tends to come to the fore, with only two winners at double-digit odds since Lear Spear sprung a 20/1 surprise in 1999. Six winning favourites in the last 20 runnings isn’t far behind market expectations, but there is clearly no edge in either backing or laying market leaders blindly.

Ombudsman won this last year having suffered defeat in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes (to the reopposing Almaqam, albeit conceding that rival 3lb), and he arrives here having won that prep this time around, and that despite suffering a setback since scoring in the Dubai Turf at Meydan in March. He is at his best on good or quicker ground, so conditions are again in his favour and he has strong form claims on balance.

The problem that Ombudsman faces here is that he has yet to meet a contender of the calibre of Daryz, winner of last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Well, that isn’t strictly true, as the unfancied Daryz was well behind Ombudsman in the International Stakes at York last summer, with Francis-Henri Graffard’s charge seeming to find the step up to Group 1 company too much after wins in four lesser races since making a belated debut in April last year.

If that defeat seemed to burst Daryz’s bubble in the minds of some pundits, they might have been nodding to themselves when he was beaten again by Croix du Nord in the Group 3 Prix du Prince d’Orange at Longchamp in September; but others sat up and took notice, seeing an improved effort even in defeat and noting that the fast-finishing Daryz would have won in a couple more strides and would have learned plenty from the experience. His supporters had plenty to cheer about when a more battle-hardened Daryz showed up for the Arc and turned the tables in no uncertain terms to prove himself to be a genuine superstar, catching Minnie Hauk with a strong late run and pulling 5½ lengths clear of the field as the pair battled it out.

That was a big improvement from Daryz, and one which could have been put down to the emphasis on stamina given it was his first try at 1½m, so it’s been noteworthy that he has been imperious in two Group 1 wins this season while stepping back in trip, winning the Prix Ganay (1m2½f) by 3½ lengths before scoring by the same margin in the Prix Aga Khan IV (formerly Prix d’Ispahan) when dropped to an extended 1m1f. I was with him in the Arc on the basis that he would be suited by the trip, but I must say he has taken a big leap forward in my estimation, looking to have the measure of his rivals in the Ganay and the Ispahan before unleashing a devastating late kick.

He’s neither a one-dimensional stayer nor a mudlark – Timeform have the going as good for his Ganay win and only a little slower for the Ispahan, and his wins this season have set a remarkable precedent. In the last century, no three-year-old has won the Arc and then gone on to do the Ganay/Ispahan double despite the prestige of those races, and that’s largely because most Arc winners tend to get a little slower with age, or at least better suited to 1½m than shorter; but Daryz is that absolute rarity – a top class middle-distance performer who is getting quicker with age.

*For the record, the Arc/Ganay/Ispahan treble had only previously been completed by two outstanding horses: Sagace (who won the Arc as a four-year-old and took the other pair of races the following season) and Allez France (second in the Arc at three before landing the Ganay/Ispahan/Arc treble the following season).

The prospect of “firm” in the going description is the one unknown for Daryz, but while it’s easy to suggest he’s best on ground softer than good, that is partly down to the fact that French going descriptions almost always err on the soft side. It’s very possible that he might prove even better on quick ground – that is certainly the case for stablemate Calandagan despite that horse’s early wins coming on softer, while Daryz’s most talented half-brother, Dariyan, won the Prix Ganay on ground that Timeform described as good-to-firm. Their dam, Daryakana, also gained her biggest success when beating Spanish Moon on a sound surface in the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase, so I think ground concerns could well be wide of the mark.

Suggestion: Back Daryz at 2/1

 

Tix Pointers: It's been very close between the four- and five-year-olds since 2013, younger leading 7-6 in wins and 22-9 in win/places... but the junior cohort was much more strongly represented. Looking instead at percentages, which we must, fives beat fours 20.7% to 13.5% on the win angle; but fours beat fives 42% to 31% on win/place, and 56% to 53% on PRB.

Six-year-olds and up were 0 from 18, two places, and a lamentable 11% PRB.

One of the top pair in the market has made the frame every year since 2003.

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5.00 THE ROYAL HUNT CUP (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby

It feels like it’s always said you want a high drawn hold up horse for races like this, but is that backed up by historical data?



There is no clear advantage from the above, so we need to dig a bit deeper.

 



This is a bit more insightful.

The top seven stalls, based on PRB3, are all 17 or higher, with four of those being no lower than 24.

Looking solely at the last ten renewals of this race, five were won by stall 21 or higher, but three have been won by 7 or lower. This doesn’t necessarily prove that no draw bias exists, but it does suggest that the draw bias can change from year to year.

The strange thing about the Ascot straight course is that you can be sure a certain side is favoured, and then in the next race, or on the next day, the complete opposite appears to be the case.

Last year is a good example of this. In the 2025 Royal Hunt Cup, the 1st and 4th were drawn 32 and 30 respectively, whilst the 2nd, 3rd and 5th were drawn in the three lowest stalls. Then in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f) the next day, the first six home were all drawn 25 or higher. So on the Wednesday extreme draws were favoured (either side) and on Thursday you absolutely had to be on the stands’ side rail.

You can go poor very quickly trying to focus on the draw too much in straight course races here, but a very high draw is rarely a big negative.

As for pace, the above image shows that wherever you are drawn, being delivered late is a pretty hefty advantage.



It’s always important to analyse the pace map, too. It’s very interesting that many of the early pace angles here seem to be clustered around the middle, with Linwood (16) the most likely front runner and One Smack Mack (13) and Archivist (18) other possibilities. This further muddies the draw waters, as the pace setters might come up the middle, or they could go either side from those draws.

From the lower draws, I think the market is correct in making La Botte and Indalo the two most interesting contenders. The former was runner up in last year’s Britannia off just a few pounds lower and since a poor run in the Lincoln, it looks to me as though connections have been looking after his mark for this.

As for Indalo, he’s been amazingly consistent and has proven himself in some of the biggest cavalry charges, so his credentials are pretty solid.

With the pace setup as it is, I can’t rule out the middle draws, and the one I’d be interested in is Irish challenger Jagged Edge. He’s won his last three starts at this trip, was hugely impressive when winning last time out and he’s another with a favourable run style.

From the high draws I really like the look of Blue Brother, but as first reserve he needs one to come out so he can get a run. He was a massive eye-catcher in this race twelve months ago, when getting no run throughout, and having not run since he’s back off the same mark.

Rogue Diplomat is one of only two horses drawn higher than Blue Brother and he’s assured of a run. He ran very well against a draw and pace bias in the Spring Cup at Newbury and can probably be forgiven a lesser effort since in France. I do think he might want a bit more juice in the ground, but I’ve seen plenty of horses that enjoy cut run well on fast ground on this straight course.

So that’s five horses on my shortlist, which is too many to back.

Suggestion
I definitely want to have JAGGED EDGE (16/1) on my side. He’s gone up 9lbs for his latest win, but I don’t see many ‘potential group horses in a handicap’ in the field, and he definitely looks like he could be one. Stalls 15 and 11 have won this in the past six years so he has a massive chance as long as it’s not like last year’s race where you have to be very high or very low. I hope the positioning of the early pace stops that from happening.

If BLUE BROTHER (12/1) gets a run, he’s the other one I want to back, but assuming he doesn’t get in I’d take a chance on ROGUE DIPLOMAT at the prices (20/1) as my second bet. The handicapper has struggled to get a hold of him as he often only just does enough, and his Spring Cup run, which has worked out well, was eye-catching enough. The ground wasn’t exactly slow that day either.

Any of these could turn out to be badly drawn once the race is run, so I’d be keeping stakes win only, despite bookies paying plenty of places. With that in mind, I’m sure you’ll get even better prices on the day on the Exchanges.

I’ll have to leave the low draws. If it’s evident the far side is favoured before this race is run, you’d hope Jagged Edge could tack over from 15 to give us a chance.

 

Tix Pointers: It usually pays to focus away from the top of the weights and on more lightly raced four-year-olds, ideally held up for a late run. It is a very, very tricky race though, where spreading out seems the only way to go.

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5.35 THE KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Fillies' Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

The Kensington Palace is a 1-mile handicap open to four-year-olds and upwards for fillies and mares only. It is a relatively new race for the meeting, inaugurated in 2021. In terms of trends, then, with only five renewals there aren’t really enough races to have built up firm patterns; and for the first three years the contest was run on the round course, with only the last two on the straight course. The two straight course races have both shown a high to middle draw bias so it will be interesting to see what happens today. One trainer has done well from a small sample, that being Ralph Beckett. He has saddled four runners from which he had one winner and two others placed.

The pace map for the race looks like this:

 

 

Here are some of the main contenders:

Radiant Beauty – four wins out of her last seven runs including a very decent win over course and distance last time on 9th May. Won that from the front and generally runs close to or up with the pace. Has gone up 6lb for that run but her revised mark does not look insurmountable. Drawn 14.

Alobayyah – trained by William Haggas and was an impressive winner on debut on soft ground at Yarmouth in the Autumn of 2024. Her 3yo year was disappointing but she was a real eyecatcher last time when third over course and distance to Radiant Beauty, finishing very strongly after being given too much to do. If she comes on for that run, she will be a big player. Drawn 16.

Stateira – a four-time winner from ten starts with three wins from her last five. Stateira is the highest rated runner in the race having been raised 27lbs since November, and it could be tough carrying that much weight. Drawn 13.

Zgharta – was disappointing at Ascot last time in the race already mentioned won by Radiant Beauty. She was well beaten in sixth that day despite being favourite but looks feasibly weighted if she can put that run behind her. It's interesting that Oisin Murphy remains on board given another runner from the Balding yard he would be eligible to ride. Draw 6 is possibly not ideal.

All Moonshine – yet to race on the turf but has been super impressive on the all weather. Third on debut and three wins on the bounce since. It is difficult to predict how she will perform on the turf for the first time especially having not been seen since February, but Andrew Balding is respected and is one to consider. Jason Watson rides after Oisin opted for Zgharta. Drawn 12.

Song N Dance – yet another horse from the Ascot race won by Radiant Beauty, Song N Dance finishing second. Ridden by the excellent Saffie Osborne and could have a good draw in 19. Looks slightly better value than some of the other horses that contested that Ascot race.

 

Suggestion: Most of the horses at or near the head of the betting are drawn in the middle (stalls 12 to 16). In races like this I tend to split stakes and at least back two, sometimes three if bigger prices. However, I am drawn here to the top section of the market and therefore I am sticking with one and that is 11/1 Song N Dance.  She looks a bigger price than she should be. Back each way with as many places as you can get.

 

Tix Pointers: Only two of the 23 mares aged 5+ have placed; the other 18 places in this race's five year history were taken by four-year-olds (a cohort which dominate entries annually).

The shortest priced winner was 10/1 (5th favourite) and no placed horse has returned shorter than 13/2 so it's tricky again. Keep some powder dry for these last two legs!

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6.10 THE WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Much to the frustration of some - notably 2021 and 2025 winning trainer Eve Johnson Houghton, though she was far from alone - the Windsor Castle has seen its distance increase from five to six furlongs but, more materially, with a condition that eligibility is only to those whose sire won over seven furlongs-plus as a juvenile or a mile and up at three. None of those flashy pure speed types here, then...

A look at the represented stallions make for odd reading, to be sure. In place of Ardad and Blue Point are the likes of Dubawi, Wootton Bassett and, slightly hilariously, Cracksman. The one sire amongst the entries that makes most sense on traditional readings of such things is Kodi Bear, a getter of legion swift juvies. Unhelpfully, though not unsurprisingly, he is responsible for more runners - four - than any other stallion in the lineup.

Let's kick off with the massive-priced Troublesome Guest, then. A daughter of Kodi, obvs, she made a lovely debut in a valuable novice event at Newmarket a month ago. Drawn very high, as with very low presumed a help, she'd be a dream result for two of the wiliest old hands in town, Messrs Margarson and Egan Sr. I hope she runs very well for them - and can actually see her outperforming her price, too.

Staying high, the Territories colt Ruler's Control moves from a win over five on heavy to six on good to firm. The way he travelled through the race gives hope that he'll have no bother in this melting pot setup and he's another Joseph runner with prospects.

On the other side of the track, favourite Sergei Diaghilev has box two. Trained by Aidan O'Brien - four from 11 with 6f 2yos, two more placed, in the past four Royal Ascots - and ridden by Ryan Moore, the pair have form in that context of 41120119. A son of Wootton Bassett out of a Galileo mare he is a Coolmore archetype, and he justified odds of 4/6 when taking a six furlong Curragh maiden (good) three and a half weeks ago. Assuming low is a fair place to be, he looks certain to go well.

Down the middle - ish - is Controlla, a daughter of Night Of Thunder who started out in stakes company, narrowly failing to reel in the leader in a Naas Group 3. She was a 25/1 chance that day and has demonstrable class as well as the sort of speed and stamina combination needed to get competitively to the line in a race like this. Like Troublesome Guest, she gets a five pound concession from the colts.

Middleham Park Racing have been at it a while now and they know very well what they're about. Two runners here, with two of the foremost trainers of juveniles - including at the Royal meeting - in Archie Watson and Clive Cox. Archie sends Alpe d'Huez, for whom it was all downhill (geddit?) in the Woodcote at Epsom last time. This son of Kodi Bear was staying on at the finish at the Derby meeting and ought to appreciate this stiffer test.

I think Clive Cox could be the best trainer of juvenile sprinters in Britain and we get to test that theory with Boleto, another Wootton Bassett, who did plenty wrong on debut at Pontefract a fortnight ago but still got up under a cute Callum Rodriguez ride. This lad needs to step forward a bundle and probably doesn't have a brilliant draw either, but in Clive and CalRod we can trust.

Lots of others with some sort of a chance that I find it very hard to quantify.

Selection: I'm mainly staying close to the top of the market here. Huge respect for Sergei Diaghalev who may just win, but 5/2 or so in a field of 25 feels wrong. It may not be, of course! Controlla looks a pretty fair each way alternative at 4/1. She brings the best form, though has nothing with which to back it up, and she could be smart. Interesting that connections opted for the newly extended Norfolk against the boys rather than the fillies only Albany at the same trip. In the long grass - the very long grass - are 20/1 Boleto and 66/1 Troublesome Guest, both of which are wildly speculative and should be staked commensurately!

 

That's Day 2, then. Mostly really tricky, on paper at least. Best of luck wth your Wednesday wagers and we'll be back for Ladies' Day tomorrow.

- Matt

Royal Ascot 2026: Day One Preview, Tips

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Royal Ascot 2026: Day One Preview, Trends, Tips

For most flat enthusiasts, it's the best week of the racing calendar as five days of elite action unfold in the presence of royalty at the 2026 Royal Ascot festival.

There are plenty of domestic runners from the pointiest part of the ability pyramid, alongside a select smattering of international players and a veritable glut of young, unexposed could-be-anythings. Yes, it will be an exciting sensory overload and punting will not generally be straightforward; but winners, where they're found, are likely to reward well. So let's see if we can't shine a light on two or three.

I have enlisted some expert support in previewing the racing from Dave Renham, David Massey, Rory Delargy, Gavin Priestley and Sam Darby, all familiar names to long-term readers of the blog and, crucially, all great judges with their own approaches to solving the puzzle. To round out each day's septet of previews, and as editor across all content, you're lumbered with me, I'm afraid.

To Tuesday, Day 1 of Royal Ascot, then, a perennial feast of Group 1 action, kicking off as tradition dictates with the Queen Anne Stakes, a straight mile G1 race for older horses.

 

Side note 1: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Tuesday trends page here.

Side note 2: we've got a free £50 Tix competition every day. Bet £5 or more into the placepot/jackpot pools via Tix and, if you played the highest ROI ticket on the day, you'll get an extra £50 - on top of the 5% bonus paid to ALL winning bets placed through Tix. Click here to take part

 

Our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race
(*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).

 

 

Royal Ascot Day 1 Going/Weather News

The going for day one of Royal Ascot, Tuesday 16th June, is: Good to Firm. 

GoingStick at 8.30am:

Stands’ side: 8.6

Centre: 8.6

Far side: 8.3

Round: 7.6

Stalls:
Straight Course: centre
Round Course: inside 

Rail movements:
The rail on the Round Course will be positioned approximately 4yds out from approximately 9f out to the home straight. This will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.

4.20pm +7 yards (approximately)
5.00pm +14 yards (approximately)
5.35pm +14 yards (approximately)
6.10pm +14 yards (approximately) 

Weather:
Dry overnight to Tuesday morning. 0.4mm rain on Monday. 5mm rain recorded through the past 7 days to Tuesday. Dry, warm day is forecast. It is forecast to be generally dry through the week, with an occasional light shower possible on Wednesday and Friday. Max temp expected to be between 22 and 26 to Thursday when they could increase further.

 

2.30 THE QUEEN ANNE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Dave Renham

A few race trends for the last 15 years of this four-year-olds and upwards mile Group 1 contest:

Age

4yos recorded 11 wins from 83 runners (13.3%); 31% placed.

5yo have had 3 wins from 58 runners (5.2%); 22% placed.

6yo and up had just 1 win from 36 runners (2.8%); 11% placed.

4yos have provided the most runners albeit from the biggest sample. However, their win strike rate is comfortably the best and their placed performance has also been best.

Market factors

8 wins for favourites, four of which started odds on

Horses priced 11/8 or shorter have won 7 races from just 9 qualifiers. To BSP backing all such runners would have yielded a 40p in the £ profit.

However, since 2018 there have been four big-priced winners – two at 33/1 and two at 14/1.

Course form

Course winners secured 10 wins from 58 runners (17.2%) with 36% placed.

Those without a course win had 5 wins from 119 runners (4.2%) with 18% placed.

A win at the course has definitely been a strong positive over the past 15 years.

Course LTO

9 winners ran LTO at Newbury from 68 runners (13.2%) with almost all of them (65) having raced in the Lockinge. Hence, the Lockinge has been by far the best trial for this contest in recent years, and backing ALL runners blind who ran in the Lockinge LTO would have produced returns just under 50 pence in the £.

Race Class LTO

12 of the last 15 winners raced in a Group 1 race LTO. LTO Group 1 runners have provided roughly 55% of the total runners in the race and 80% of the winners.

Career win percentage

British or Irish runners with career win percentage of 60% or more provided 7 winners from just 22 runners.

 

Queen Anne Stakes Pace Map

 

Before we look at some of the leading players, we can see there is not much pace on here, with only one of the nine horses, OperaBallo, having led in one of his last four starts, and he did that just once. Hence, this could be run at a false pace, which often complicates matters somewhat.

 

This year’s contenders

Notable Speech – fourth in the race last year where things didn’t go to plan. He pulled hard that day, was short of room at the 2-furlong pole, then lost ground going sharply right before the jockey dropped his whip. He was beaten just over two lengths. A year later he comes here as favourite having been in very good form recently, winning three of out his last four races, including the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Lockinge. He is trained by Charlie Appleby and clearly has a strong chance. The slight concern is that he has not been seen at his best at this venue.

Docklands – did this column a huge favour last year having been tipped up each way at 25/1 in the morning. He loves Ascot's straight mile with his record reading three wins, three seconds, a third, and a close-up fourth of 16. Despite now being six, he looks as good as ever based on his two runs this year – a Listed win at Doncaster in March and then an excellent third at Sha Tin in the Group 1 FWD Champion’s mile in April. The only slight negative is that he has a few pounds to find with Notable Speech on Official Ratings. The lack of pace in the race shouldn’t be a problem as last year they went off quite slow and that did not inconvenience him.

Opera Ballo – the second string from the Appleby yard but a leading contender. A regular winner having taken seven of his nine career starts. He won the Bet365 mile at Sandown last time and is joint highest rated in the field with Notable Speech on 125.

More Thunder – This time last year he was running in the Wokingham handicap at the Royal meeting but has since progressed to Group 1 level, finishing second last time to Notable Speech in the Lockinge. He struggled to lay up with the pace early then and gave himself too much to do; if he can sit more handily this time his chance increases, which if the pace map is anything to go by he should be able to do. Further, that was his first run of the season so we can expect him to come on for that.

 

Suggestion: Notable Speech looks the one based on recent form, but at the prices I’m happy to split a point between two against him with More Thunder and Docklands.

 

Tix Pointers: The favourite has placed in seven of the last 10 years.

However, in 2018 (15 ran) the result was 33/1, 10/1 (4th fav), 20/1; and in 2019 (16 ran) we had 14/1 (co 6th fav of 3), 20/1, 20/1.

Four- and five-year-olds have won 12 of the last 13 renewals.

Older horses are 1 from 32 with a PRB of only 37% during that time. Four-year-olds have by far the best record.

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3.05 THE COVENTRY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

Trends

17 of the last 18 winners had won their last start.
17 of the last 18 winners had won a race at Class 4 or higher.
All of the last 18 winners had their previous run in a Class 4 race or higher race.
15 of the last 18 winners were unbeaten over 6f.
16 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd favourite on their last run.
16 of the last 18 winners had run 1 or 2 times.
14 of the last 18 winners were unbeaten coming into the race.
13 of the last 15 British trained winners had their previous run over 6f. 

 

Race Analysis

If we look for one or two runs and a win last time out we can reduce the field by half and then by removing those that weren't well fancied in the betting last time we can lose a couple more. That gives us a nice shortlist to look through.

Archie Watson won the Coventry in 2022 and on the whole his runners have run well in this race (although all three of his runners last year were unplaced - best performance was 6th at 100/1). If we simply concentrate on his runners that had had just one run, over 6f on the turf which they had won, we see that these types have finished 31220. That's a winner at 8/1 and places at 40/1, 20/1 and 6/1.

Following the same trainer didn't work out for us last year but I'm going to give him another try as his sole entry SIOUXPERB looked very promising when skating home on his debut by four lengths at Yarmouth as the well fancied 4/6 favourite. The Yarmouth race was run on similar ground to what he'll encounter here and the form has been advertised since with the second home, who was a further three lengths clear of the rest of the field, going on to win his next two starts. Those two wins included a decent looking class 2 Novice event at Newmarket last time out which he won by more than three lengths under a 6lb penalty.

His form looks sound and if able to post a similar performance it should give him excellent each way chances.

 

Suggestion: SIOUXPERB 1pt EW 14/1 (4 places)

 

 

Tix Pointers: Aidan O'Brien has won with four of the five winning favourites in the past decade.

During that period, the fav placed only five times with two second favs hitting the board in the other five.

Of the remaining trio of Coventry's, it's been a random number generator of a podium: 2017 saw 11/1, 33/1, 8/1 (jt 3rd fav); in 2021, it was 11/1 (jt 6th fav), 66/1, 25/1; and in 2024 the impossible 80/1, 40/1 (jt 15th fav!), 66/1.

It might be worth playing a few tickets with the some wildness here.

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3.40 THE KING CHARLES III STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Rory Delargy

A huge field means the draw will surely influence the result and that’s much the same as last year when stalls 14-17 filled the first four spots in a 20-runner affair (three of the last four spots went to stalls 19-21, for balance, so it’s not simply a case of higher is better, but that smart horses drawn together can help each other in straight-track races).

Last year’s winner American Affair is a great starting point as he was drawn 16 last year and now has an eye-catching berth in stall 18, with speedsters Big Mojo and favourite Overpass on either side. In terms of overall pace, the presence in high stalls of speedy sorts Jakajaro and Mission Central helps fill out the pace profile of the high-drawn group, and it will be a surprise if that speed does not hold up throughout the race.

Not only does American Affair find himself drawn where the best of the pace is in the King Charles III, but we already know he’s best when asked to come late off such a strong pace, so having genuine contenders to set the race up for him means he can have no excuse. He will, in truth, need to be at least as good as he was last year to prevail, and he’s easily forgiven a rare below-par run in the Minster Stakes at York. Jim Goldie has long been a master at getting his sprinters to retain their form well beyond the first flush of youth.

In terms of dangers, there are several obvious ones, with Big Mojo and Overpass unlikely to roll over even if getting involved in a strong gallop. The latter has done much of his running in Australia over 6f, giving the impression that a stiff five might be his perfect scenario at a track like Ascot. His presence on the stands flank counts against those early pacers around him who need to dominate, but if they go very hard then there are some among the lower stalls who will be finishing strongly.

My pick of that half of the field is last year’s Commonwealth Cup heroine Time For Sandals, who will relish a strongly run five here and will be doing good late work. She’s another who can be forgiven her modest run in the Minster Stakes, with 6f on softish ground blunting her speed, especially when short of peak fitness. She appeals as the value danger, and indeed for exotics, while outsider Behike is another for that list having made a big impression at Lingfield. He is very much in the “could be anything” category, and is sure to do better still, for all Newmarket or Goodwood later in the summer may be more appropriate.

Suggestion: 1pt e/w American Affair @ 8/1 (Coral – 5 places; 7/1 & 15/2 general)

 

Tix Pointers: Only Battaash upheld the honour of market leaders since 2013.

In spite of that, the fav and/or second fav has hit the frame in nine of the last ten years; last year, however, it was 11/1, 28/1, 9/1 (3rd fav).

Five-year-olds and up have a very good record in the race (note the PRB stats).

 

 

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4.20 THE ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Never mind the width, feel the quality... a short field of six for this year's St James's Palace Stakes, the usual rendez-vous point of European Guineas winners. The winners of the English and Irish 2000 Guineas are in attendance, so too the beaten favourite in the French version, but the Poulains victor is a late absentee having caught a cold (or some such) at the weekend. Pity.

No matter, though, because in Bow Echo and Gstaad we have a proper match, with a couple of spicy curve balls in play to boot.

Both the aforementioned graced Newmarket's 2000 Guineas in early May, Bow Echo charging clear of Gstaad by most of three lengths - fully eight lengths back to the third - to stretch his unbeaten run to four in the manner of a generational talent. If that sounds hyperbolic, it might yet be; but the ratings guys fell of their perches with excitement at what they witnessed. Timeform went 131, Racing Post Ratings plumped for 127 and the BHA, racing's official scorer, went 126. These were the best, or joint best, ratings since Frankel's electric performance in the race in 2011.

Gstaad, for his part, franked the form emphatically when coming three lengths clear in the Irish 2000 Guineas three weeks later.

If there is a problem, and there may not be, it's that the depth of both races is highly questionable. Prior the Newmarket race, pundits and ratings outlets alike were decrying the absence of star quality; and when Gstaad lined at the Curragh he was 4/11 favourite, with the only credible rival on market telling (Distant Storm, the distant third horse from Newmarket) running up, against at a respectful distance. The fifth, seventh and ninth from Newmarket have been well beaten since, though the 11th placed horse did win next time out... in a Class 4 handicap at Kempton.

If the form has the substance the ratings lads say it does, Bow Echo ought to win on all known evidence. But if it's been overrated by flattering defeats of sub-standard horses then the door is just ever so slightly ajar for a runner with a different profile. The obvious one on that score is Puerto Rico, whose juvenile level was solid and who disappointed connections in Paris in their Guineas. Still, he did finish fourth that day shaping as though he'd come on for the run: he was handy enough but just got outpaced before staying on at the one pace. The quick ground is an unknown but he was a dual Group 1 winners as a two-year-old (both in France, both very soft going).

Less exposed but more left field and with more to find is Talk Of New York, a four-time raced triple winner. Having started with a five length romp at Kempton he fell slightly short when taking on the Jumeirah 2000 Guineas in Meydan in late February. After that came a three-length score at Newmarket in conditions company before an impressive five length rout in the Heron Stakes, Listed, at Sandown nigh on three weeks ago. That was a progressive effort and, like the favourite, he's got more scope than the rest to again step forward; but perhaps that's fully reflected in current quotes of 9/2.

As a 2yo G1 winner Power Blue deserves a mention. He could be ridden from the front in a race where, unless Puerto Rico is sent on for Ballydoyle, there would be no obvious pace contention; and, with that sprint speed in his corner, he might offer a run for tiny stakes on this turning track - but it's still a very long climb to the line when the fuel gauge is in the red zone.

It'll be a nice day out for the new training partnership of Ismail Mohammed and Jose Santos with their lad, Lord Britain.

Suggestion: I think it's very likely that Bow Echo reasserts his class, but if there's a bet it might be a small 'without the favourite' stab at Puerto Rico whose juvenile form was close to Gstaad's and better than Bow Echo's.

Try Puerto Rico without the favourite for pennies, or perhaps a Bow Echo/Puerto Rico forecast (pays 10.8 with bet365 as I write).

 

Tix Pointers: Ten of the last 13 winners returned first or second favourite. Of the remaining three, two were third choice, and the jolly was placed behind 10/1 Circus Maximus in 2019.

Potential banker race?

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5.00 THE ASCOT STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Sam Darby

I do love these extreme distance handicaps, even if they are arguably just as unpredictable as races over the minimum trip.

Before I get stuck into the form, we need to have a look at possible draw and pace angles. At the very least they should tell us which horses are most/least likely to be favoured, even if the data can’t be used to completely rule anything out.


The quick takeaway from the above is that early leaders tend to not do brilliantly (judging by the PRB of 0.36) whilst there isn’t much between the other run styles.

As for this particular race, it looks unlikely to be a gruelling contest with very little early pace on offer. Ismahane is pretty much the only front runner or prominent racer in the field, so I can see this being steadily run and tactical.

That’s not only bad news for those likely to be dropped out early on (and there are a few of those), but I can also see this being an extremely rough race turning for home. A steady pace means a very well grouped field and there are sure to be plenty of hard luck stories, especially with those that get locked in on the rail.

That brings me on to the draw data here.

 


 

These races are rare, so there isn’t a massive sample size, but the data point towards higher draws being slightly disadvantaged - not a great shock over such a distance on a round course.

Perhaps the most telling insight comes from the draw and pace combination data. Again, it's not a huge sample size but it looks as though non extreme rides are great for low drawn runners and patient rides are best for those drawn middle to high.

Given the likely pace set up for this race, I’m not massively keen on those likely to be held up so a low draw and prominent ride might be the recipe for success.

As for the form book, in a ‘fair’ race the two I’d be most interested in would be Reaching High and Beylerbeyi.

Reaching High was well backed for this last year but he never got any sort of run at any stage and he was one of the most unlucky horses at the meeting. He hasn’t run since, so it’s pretty evident he’s been put away to win this race off the same mark. I have two issues with him, though, and they are his price (around 9/4) and, related, the chance he’s unlucky once again. I’d be getting him prominent from stall 8 to give him the best possible chance but I think you’ll find more likely winners at this price at the likes of Ripon and Hamilton this week, so I wouldn't be interested in backing him just to try to get a Royal Ascot winner at any cost.

As for Beylerbeyi, you only need to watch his winter runs on the all weather over inadequate trips, off this sort of mark, to know he’s a well handicapped horse. My worry with him is that he’ll be dropped out from stall 16 and he wants a decent gallop to aim at, which might leave him inconvenienced here. He’s halved in price since the final decs and whilst he’s another possible winner, I think the likely disadvantage provided by the run of the race is enough to make me reluctantly overlook him.

Simply put, I want a horse who might be able to pinch a bit of an advantage. It’s not easy to predict what will slot in behind Ismahane, the likely front runner, but Kizlyar and Glenroyal may be seen to best effect.

Kizlyar won a relatively uncompetitive race in Ireland last time out, but the 2nd and 3rd have finished 2nd and 1st since. He doesn’t have too many ground question marks (often a worry for some of the Irish runners in this) and seems to have a nice mix of speed and stamina.

If you can throw out a poor run at Galway last year when turned out again within 24 hours of winning, Glenroyal has effectively won his last three races on the flat. He’s got quite a bit to prove in terms of stamina in the form book, but he’s a full brother to an Irish Cesarewitch winner and a half brother to a winner of this race and it should aid his chance if this becomes a relative speed test for the trip.

I think it’s impossible to be confident about the Ascot Stakes as a betting race, but in terms of value I’d be backing Kizlyar at around 16/1 and Glenroyal at around 20/1 (both win only, there are enough question marks to put me off the place market). Reaching High has a really obvious chance, especially if able to get a good early position, and I’ll be kicking myself if Beylerbeyi wins but I just can’t back him in this sadly.

 

Suggestion: Split a point between 14/1 Kizlyar and 16/1 Glenroyal.

 

Tix Pointers: In 2015 and 2017 Ryan rode the winner for Willie - both returned fav. No other market leader has won since 2002!

Nine of the 13 winners were aged 6+, though placed percentages are a lot more evenly spread.

Willie hasn't won since 2018, and Ian Willie-ams (sorry) has claimed two prizes since then. Williams and Alan King (as well as the unrepresented this year Hughie Morrison) are the UK trainers on which to focus. Joseph O'Brien ran one (unplaced) in the 2024 Ascot Stakes; five (including 2nd 16/1, 3rd 33/1 and 4th 25/1) last year; and saddles seven this time!

Nevertheless, the worst market rank performance in the past decade was a fourth choice making the frame... until last year when the result was 20/1, 16/1 (6th fav), 33/1, 25/1 - as mentioned three of which were Joseph's, though that doesn't help much this year.

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5.35 THE WOLFERTON STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Run as a handicap until 2017, the Wolferton is one of the trappier races at the Royal meeting. Two years ago, Israr won and returned 11/4 favourite; he was the first since Mahsoob in 2015 and, therefore, the first of the non-handicap era. Roger Varian has two wins since 2020 and John (now with son Thady) Gosden has enjoyed five wins and five places from 21 starters. Both are represented this year.

The specific race conditions - that no horse shall have won a G1 or G2 since at least the previous August - makes it one of the few races not for progressive animals; that of course makes it more inscrutable, not less.

Although horses have won from very wide, five of the eight non-handicap winners were drawn 7 or lower. As the PRB3 (average percent of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) chart clearly outlines, inside is better all other things equal.

 

 

One thing I did notice when reviewing the run style of placed horses will probably become apparent to you when I share the following string: MMHMMMMHMLMPMMMMMMPHMHMLMPPMMPMM

All eight winners raced midfield and, as you can see, most of the placed horses did, too. The inference, borne out by the victors' odds and doubtless painful memory, too, if you habitually play this race, is that hard luck stories abound and it is very often the best trip that wins. That, clearly, makes life difficult.

Roger runs Enfjaar, a six-year-old with limited mileage. This lad ran fourth in the race last year when enduring a troubled passage from an inside stall. Trap seven is fine and, though he's older than probably ideal, this will have been a clear plan and he comes here off a lovely prep in a similar grade at Goodwood four weeks ago.

The Gosdens run Nahraan, unbeaten in three UK starts and third in a Group 3 in France last September. He lacks a run this season, which is a small negative, but the team know what they're doing (duh) so he can be expected to be plenty fit enough. I'm far from convinced by his form, however, for all that he retains obvious upside.

Last year's winner, Haatem, has an obvious chance again. Drawn 2, we know conditions suit and he backed up his Wolferton score with a good third in the Summer Mile over a trip shy of optimal. Given what looked an obvious sighter in the same Goodwood race contested by Enfjaar last time, he's a Wathnan wunner with weal pwospects.

Another string to the Wathnan Wolferton (enough with the W alliter-wation alweady!) bow is King's Gambit, third in the race a year ago. He ran a nice race from an unpromising position at Newmarket on his '26 debut before blowing out completely at Chester three weeks later. That was a too bad to be true effort but his typically held up run style may be suboptimal with so many mid-pack runners with gear changes ahead of him. No better man than Jamie for this gig, for all that the straight track is his muse.

Charlie saddles a couple at prices that look the types to be competitive in a race like this. The first is Ancient Wisdom, who will don first time cheekpieces in his quest to convert some consistent Pattern level form into a win. He'd probably prefer a bit more juice in the ground though he did win his novice on good to firm back in 2023. He's run 222 at ten furlongs, in G2, Listed and G3 company, and he'll probably settle midfield and hope for the gaps from stall 3. Billy Loughnane will be steering.

William Buick opts for Arabian Light, fourth in the Brigadier Gerard (G3) on his UK seasonal debut. He ran on well there having never been put in the race after missing the kick, and does have some solid upgrade figures to get him out of any pockets after the home turn.

The filly Survie is interesting. Although there are plenty of options for her sex, connections have opted to take on the fellas and Ryan will ride for connections of connections (Mrs Doreen Tabor, no less). She - Survie, not Mrs Tabor - has been mixing it in the best company: in the past twelve months she's run third in the Pretty Polly, second in the Prix Jean Romanet, fourth in the Prix Vermeille and third in the Neom Turf Cup in Saudi Arabia - all of those Group 1 races.

This is a sizeable step down then, though she was a well beaten third in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket when last seen. There was also a stable switch at the turn of the year - from Nicolas Clement to George Boughey - and this former G2 winner and multi-G1 placer has a class edge if she's, erm, man enough against males. There is a slight question mark about the ground, too; her best form is with some cut and that last day clunk was on similarly good to firm terrain as she'll encounter here. If not for that, I'd have fancied her chances.

It pays to respect anything Francis-Henri Graffard brings over, but Map Of Stars has looked decidedly out of sorts since running well in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes over the same course and distance at last year's Royal meeting. Similar respect comments apply to Joseph O'Brien runners - he seems to be operating at another level this campaign - but his pair have car parked in 14 and 15 of 16 which greatly tempers enthusiasm.

I'm not seeing the case for making Wimbledon Hawkeye a single figure price even if it was a badly needed prep race last time. It could be argued that his best form is over ten furlongs on quick ground, so there's that; but it's not easy to see him reversing Sandown form with Arabian Light, particularly from stall 13. Not without a chance but looks short enough to my eye.

Ditto Ghostwriter, making his debut for Kevin Philippart de Foy and his first run since last year's Royal Ascot when he was third in the Hardwicke (1m4f G2). He has back class and this looks his trip, but it'll be a heck of a training performance after 360 days off the course.

Suggestion: As you'll have gathered it's a messy old race. I'm going to split a small stake three ways: I do quite like Arabian Light (20/1 Coral) and expect he'll step considerably forward from his prep run. I also feel like Enfjaar (12/1 Coral) has a chance to redeem a difficult transit a year prior, and I can't resist a tiny bit on Survie (14/1 Hills) despite the going concerns. Very far from confident with any of those, it should be said.

 

Tix Pointers: Only two winning favourites and one second pick since 2013.

However, nine and a half jollies have hit the frame, the wrong joint fav for placepot purposes placing in 2024.

They were joined by two second picks, a third choice and two fourth in. Probably still need to spread out a little in the 'lucky last'...

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6.10 THE COPPER HORSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by David Massey

When I watched Klassleader beat Sing Us A Song in the Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap at York last month I was convinced I’d seen a very strong piece of handicap form, much as I had when I witnessed Merchant winning a similarly competitive York handicap the season before. William Haggas loves sending these potential blots to York - we saw another at the weekend with Extremely Zain - and the form from those races almost always works out well.

So whilst we aren’t seeing Klassleader here (and I'd not be shocked if his next outing was in Group company) we do get Sing Us A Song, and I make him the one to beat. He needed his first run of the season at Epsom when third to Night Breeze in the Metropolitan, the track possibly not suiting him either, and showed the benefits of that when going to York last month. He made a lot of the running there, doing plenty of the donkey work and never given a moment’s peace from Will Scarlet on the front; when you think that, at the line, Will Scarlet was some 17 lengths behind Sing Us A Song, it shows what an excellent shift the latter put in. He’s probably been beaten by a very good horse and the 2lb rise he got for that looks lenient to my eyes. James McDonald takes the ride here.

That’s because James Doyle jumps Wathnan ship to their other contender, Valiancy, who is the Haggas representative. He did nothing but improve as a 3yo, and started this season on the right foot, successful over 13f at Hamilton and barely coming off the bridle to win. He was put up 8lb for that, which looks fair, but if you think James Doyle never chooses the wrong Wathnan one, you only have to go back a year to recall Fallen Angel finishing third to Crimson Advocate in the Duke Of Cambridge to find some evidence of that. McDonald was the beneficiary that day so, with apologies to the Doyler, here’s hoping history repeats itself…

I will be having a saver - and a reverse forecast - with Daiquiri Bay though, because if he wins, having convinced myself there’s a big 14f handicap in him for over a year now, it might just ruin my week. I somewhat fell for him after he won at Chester last year, amazed that one his size was able to handle the Roodee's tight turns as well as he did, and when he turned up in the King George V Stakes here last year, was sure he was going to run a big race. Eighth doesn’t tell you how well he actually ran, the trip just looking on the short side, and a third in the Melrose at York later in the season backed up that impression.

Gelded last autumn, he came back to run a career best when beating Gamrai at Newmarket over a mile and a half in May, stamina once again looking his long suit, and I feel a step up to this trip can only be a plus point. A real trier, which is always half the battle, he’ll have his conditions and can go well.

Suggestion: Back Sing Us A Song at 17/2, and/or Daiquiri Bay at 7/1. Maybe even try a small stakes reverse forecast.

 

Monday Musings: Nasty Business

/in /by

I’ll be missing the whole of Royal Ascot this week, so the freshly cleaned morning suit will remain on its hanger in the wardrobe, writes Tony Stafford. But the reason for it - ten days’ puppy watch while the beloved takes an educational language trip to Italy – brought home to me yet another reason why the UK is rapidly becoming the nastiest, most cynical and rapacious country in Europe

It’s long been annoying that Stansted airport – other airports are similarly greedy - charges a not inconsiderable amount just for dropping off a passenger at the Terminal. On Saturday, something since my last visit appeared to have changed.

I had never noticed directions to free drop-off – involves a bus – but this time I did. Anxious for a quick departure though, we made our way directly to the Terminal knowing a payment was needed. All my previous visits had involved paying by card at the end of the road after the Terminal but this time, all there is to see is a sign saying, “don’t forget to pay by tomorrow.”

At 3.30 am I jolted awake – “payment!” Trying to get on the right site, my bleary eyes were drawn to “airport-service.co.uk”. I went through the steps and was shocked to see an overall charge of £26, £10 for payment and £16 additional for “service”.  So, £26 for a one-minute slide through.

I knew I’d never paid even as much as £10 before and luckily, I was sufficiently awake to hesitate before pressing the button. I scanned the page again and noticed somewhere – “there are cheaper ways to pay this charge” or something of the like. I think it’s only when you get as close to paying as I had that this message appears.

“Airport-service.co.uk” was close enough to the top of the list that all drop-offees must visit - in second place behind the airport’s own payment site. The skilfully worded legend must draw many equally initially gullible people as me every day. Just while I was there, there was a non-stop succession of cars and taxis unloading. Nice work for the airport whether it was on their site or on that of the oh-so-helpful “Service” crowd, that no doubt passes on the tenner and pockets the rest.

There has been much discussion about the damaging effect of the internet on under-16s and the possible moves to ban them from using it over the past few days. How about a more general cleaning-up so that companies like Airport-service.co.uk are no longer allowed to fleece the public with such bare-faced misdirection?

So you’ve guessed. I’m annoyed to miss the five racing days of the year that I anticipate above all others – even more so than those two lovely spells at York with Mr and Mrs Cannon.

Those of you who can go will have a first-day feast in the clashes between the Charlie Appleby pair of Notable Speech and Opera Ballo and the William Haggas-trained More Thunder in the Queen Anne Stakes, and then the rematch between the 2,000 Guineas 1-2 Bow Echo (George Boughey) and Gstaad (Aidan O’Brien) in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

The lure of Royal Ascot means that in both races there are talented horses waiting for a slip-up from the anticipated principals. The Queen Anne’s straight mile has been the source of a host of surprises, not least when Brook got the race in 1974 (I was there) upon the disqualification of the first three finishers. Docklands’ success at 12/1 in the race last year ought not to count as one of those.

Harry Eustace’s six-year-old has never been out of the first four in seven runs on the track and that sole fourth place was close up and barely a length behind the 100/1 winner Cicero’s Gift in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day over the course and distance last October. Since then, he has been clocking up the air miles and annexing foreign currency with a series of good runs in the Far East, either side of an easy win at Doncaster in March.

Again, though, has he the resources to withstand the sort of acceleration that the 2024 2,000 Guineas winner Notable Speech can unleash? The latest version of that came with a devastating burst to win a very competitive renewal of the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury a month ago.

Charlie can back him up with the seven-time-winning (from nine) Opera Ballo, whose demolition of Field Of Gold in the bet365 Mile at Sandown elevated him into an elite category.

Then there’s More Thunder, from the William Haggas team and the one singled out by Tom Marquand as the pick of his stables’ riches over the week. Haggas comes into the week in form, again with some spectacular results from his handicappers (really?) over the past few days.

I read an article quoting my old pal Kieran Fallon suggesting that maybe his son Cieren (different spelling - and accent!) could make a challenge for the jockeys’ title with Oisin this year. If he keeps getting on the right Haggas ones – he did on Saturday at York while Tom Marquand was messing around at Sandown, and had the pleasant task of a steering job, even after repeated blockages on his way through on Extremely Zain in a modestly-endowed for the day seven-furlong handicap.

Runing off 93 in a 0-95 handicap after two wins from two, Extremely Zain was the proverbial Group horse running in a handicap, except he was more probably a Group 1 horse dancing though a handicap. I don’t now how the handicapper was expected to put a figure on his initial wide-margin debut win and then narrow second victory in a Newbury novice.

He must have thought he was safe with 93. One hundred and three wouldn’t have made much difference. The much more valuable six-furlong sprint will seem – when it appears on the screen as a result or on paper if anyone still reads form in that way – much more closely-fought.

The truth is that Zac Lloyd, son of English-born but top Australian jockey Jeff, had everything well under control in that big field. Thunder Call was on 85. He’s another almost sure to get to three figures with a couple of well-chosen and remunerative stopping points along the way.

The rematch between Bow Echo and Gstaad will be the main item for many. At Newmarket, Bow Echo comfortably had the measure of Gstaad while both had the rest of the Classic field miles behind. Gstaad went on to win in Ireland but, with Bow Echo enjoying a steady build-up under Boughey’s single-minded approach, it’s hard to see how this unbeaten colt could be relinquishing his position at the top of the miling tree. I can’t wait to see him get his hands (hooves) on the older bunch.

In the far-off olden days, they would have had a runoff over four miles to decide things later in the day.

Talking of history, one of my favourite races down the years has been the Ascot Stakes. This year, the 20 runners include one from France, six from England and 13 from Ireland, including seven from Oaks-winning trainer Joseph O’Brien. Where have our staying handicappers gone?

James Owen does run one and I’m sure he wishes the lower-rated Carlton could have been high enough to get in; maybe he would have without the Irish logjam. He’ll probably run on Saturday in the level weights and slightly longer Queen Alexandra. The way he finished in the Chester Plate suggests he’ll stay the trip. Get your topper and tails ready, Mick!

I often sound off about handicappers, but in going for one of the non-Joseph Irish contingent, I admit the task in assessing a horse with one win on debut over 1m4f, a third place over 1m6f behind fellow Stakes entry Kizlyar (O’Brien), and then, from his mark of 91 from two outings, a smooth win last time over one mile, is a tricky one!

Now trainer Henry De Bromhead is asking his five-year-old Tim Toe to travel two and a half times as far. Champion Hurdles are one thing, but Henry also loves to go for the posh pots on the flat and this would be a splendid addition to his lengthy jumps honours board.

- TS

Royal Ascot 2026: Must Know Betting Angles

/in , /by

Royal Ascot – Exploring a variety of angles

Royal Ascot 2026 is less than a week away, writes Dave Renham. It's obviously one of the biggest meetings of the year and it is one of my favourites, in my top three along with Cheltenham and Goodwood. In this article I will delve into Royal Ascot results data going back ten years (2016-2025) in preparation for the upcoming five days of the festival. I will be looking at some areas I have not previously publicly examined in depth, so I'm excited to get cracking. Profit/ loss figures have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission.

Last year For Royal Ascot I looked at Group 1 races and in 2024 I focused on the mile handicaps. In this piece, as the title indicates, I am going to look at a variety of angles. Let’s get started.

Royal Ascot Draw Bias

Straight Track Drawn Bias (up to a mile)

Where horses are berthed in the stalls often has a big say in certain big field races on the straight track. Below are some recent examples, starting with the 2023 Sandringham Handicap run over a mile. The first nine runners home, along with their post positions, were:

 

Ascot race card: list of 9 horses, trainers, jockeys and odds for the Sandringham Stakes (Fillies) 3yo.

 

There was a clear high to middle draw bias in this race with eight of the first nine home, and all of the first seven, racing stands’ side. Not only that several of these runners were big prices with a 33/1 second, a 66/1 third and a 50/1 in fifth.

The next example occurred in 2024:

 

Race results page for Ascot Buckingham Palace Stakes handicap; table lists horses, trainers, jockeys, weights, and finishing positions.

 

This renewal of the Buckingham Palace Handicap, run over a furlong less than the Sandringham, again witnessed a very substantial bias in favour of high to middle berthed runners. The first ten home were drawn 18 or higher and all raced stands’ side. And the second and third placed horses were 28/1 and 25/1.

Last year's edition of the same race saw a near carbon copy occur as the result below shows:

 

Ascot Stakes results table: horses, trainers, weights, and placings (handicap race). Accessible summary of top eight finishers at Ascot.

 

The first four home exited from the highest five stalls. Indeed, it should also be noted that the 2023 renewal of this contest also favoured high to middle drawn runners (best finishing position of a horse drawn in single figures was ninth). Based on these recent races, when they line up in the Buckingham Palace Stakes this year it will be tempting to completely ignore those runners drawn low.

However, although we get some handicap races on the straight course that show a significant draw bias, when we look at all such races over the past ten years, the draw breakdown by ‘thirds’ are probably more even than might have been expected.

 

Pie chart titled 'Royal Ascot 2016-2025' showing win% by draw position for straight course handicaps (5f-1m); Low 27%, Mid 39%, High 34% (legend colors: Low green, Mid purple, High blue).

 

Lowish draws have won the smallest percentage, but I must admit I had expected a figure at least five percentage points lower. Middle draws have been the most successful in terms of wins at least, perhaps because plenty of the big field races are contested down the centre of the track thus meaning no lost ground manoeuvring for position.

Of course, we can view this draw data in a different way by looking at Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB). This potentially gives us a more accurate picture as it considers all runners in all races, not just the winners. Here were the splits across the 59 races:

 

Bar chart showing PRB draw thirds by handicap level: Low 0.46, Middle 0.51, High 0.53 for Royal Ascot 2016–2025 straight course handicaps (5f–1m).

 

This is more the type of pattern I was expecting with high edging it over middle and low a few points behind. 46% of rivals beaten on a sample this size is material: it's quite tough for the low drawn horses.

 

Royal Ascot Round course Draw Bias (1m4f)

If you were thinking draw bias only has the potential to impact straight course races, think again. Over 1m 4f we have seen a strong draw bias, albeit from a smallish sample of 20 handicaps run over this trip over the past ten meetings. Let me share the win splits by third of the draw first:

 

Pie chart of win% by draw position for Royal Ascot handicaps over 1m4f (2016–2025): High 50%, Mid 35%, Low 15%

 

Low drawn runners have struggled, winning just three of the 20 races even though they ostensibly have the shortest distance to travel having been drawn closer to the inside running rail. Meanwhile, high draws won half of the sample races, with seven wins for the middle third. If we focus on the four lowest drawn horses versus the four highest drawn horses, we get this dichotomy:

 

Comparison table of performance for lowest vs highest 4 stalls: Runs 80; Wins 2 vs 10; Win% 2.5% vs 12.5%; WinPL -44.58 vs 41.41; ROI -55.73% vs 51.76%.

 

These numbers are quite powerful and are at least partially corroborated by the PRB figures:

 

Bar chart comparing PRBs for lowest four stalls (0.43) and highest four stalls (0.53) in Royal Ascot 2016–2025 handicaps over 1m4f.

 

Based on these stats, it is a challenge to be berthed in draws one to four, perhaps because one either has to use petrol to hold a position or else take back and ride for luck buried in the ruck. Middle to high draws hold sway with 13 of the 20 winners coming from the top half of the draw.

OK, moving on from the draw let’s now look at...

Odds Movement at Royal Ascot

Early Morning odds compared with Opening Show odds

One would assume market movements at Royal Ascot differ slightly compared with your average meeting. I was expecting the early morning odds (EMO) for most runners to be more accurate than usual, for example. Below are the percentages for horses that lengthened/drifted in price from EMO to Opening Show (OS), those that shortened, and those that stayed the same price. For the record, the EMO prices were taken from around 9.30am and I have used William Hill odds. The OS odds are based on when the market became ‘live’ so usually around 15 minutes before the start of the race.

 

Bar chart titled 'Royal Ascot 2016-2025 - Change in price from Early Morning Odds to Opening Show Odds'. Three orange bars show the percentage of runners: 'shorten' 39.0%, 'same price' 19.3%, and 'lengthen' 41.6%, illustrating changes in price.

 

These figures are very different from the figures for all flat races. The control group of 'all UK flat races' saw 52.6% of horses lengthen in price, 36.4% shorten and 11% stayed the same. Hence, at Royal Ascot the market sees far fewer horses lengthen in price with their overall numbers similar to those that have shortened. In addition, far more horses have remained at the same price. Ultimately, I guess this is what we should expect – more accurate morning markets meaning less fluctuations during the day; and, perhaps, fewer horses defensively priced early in the day.

 

Opening Show odds compared with Starting Price

What about the price shifts in the minutes before the ‘off’? What type of changes do we see from the Opening Show on course to the final SP?

 

Bar chart showing the percentage of punters changing odds from Opening Show to Starting Price for Royal Ascot 2016–2025: shortened 28.7%, same price 38.8%, lengthened 32.6% (background in pink).

 

More horses remain at the same price than those that either shorten or lengthen/drift in price. Again, these figures differ markedly from the norm – in flat races as a whole, around 42% of runners drift in price, 24% remain the same price, while around 34% shorten. For those punters who bet close to the ‘off’, these stats will be useful to know.

There is one more comparison I would like to share before moving on. In all flat races horses that were clear favourite at early prices remained favourite at the off around 63% of the time. At Royal Ascot, more early morning favourites have retained favouritism at the ‘off’ than has been the norm with their figure standing at 73%.

Royal Ascot: Exchange Markets

BSP prices

I wanted to take a quick look at Betfair SP (BSP) to see if there has been a price band that offered some value. In Class 1 races the sweet spot seems to have been between BSP 5.0 and 10.0. This price grouping has seen 79 winners from 493 (SR 16%) for a profit of £60.67 (ROI +12.3%). Narrowing these Class 1 races down to the cream of the crop, the Group 1s, horses priced BSP 9.0 or lower has been the area to totally focus on. Backing all these runners blind would have seen us make a 16p in the £ on investment. Quite incredible, really.

In handicaps, the 5.0 to 10.0 band which was positive for Class 1 races was far from optimal here, producing just an 11.1% strike rate (27 winners from 243) for losses of £40.38 (ROI -20.3%). The best value in the handicaps was with longer priced horses – primarily those between 17.0 and 60.0. However, the strike rate is down at 4.5% across this huge cohort and hence finding the right horses within this odds bracket would have been tricky to say the least.

 

In-running betting/trading

Roughly 20% of all money bet on a horse race happens in running. At Royal Ascot, with competitive races, this percentage may edge up a point or two. I analysed some Royal Ascot in-running data in relation to ‘dobbing’. Dobbing or ‘DOB’ means ‘double or bust’. Essentially, dobbing is an in-play trading strategy employed by some traders where they are looking to double their original stake if their trade succeeds. Conversely, if the trade/DOB is unsuccessful they ‘bust’ or lose their stake.

I have written about dobbing before but for those who have not heard of it, I will offer a quick worked example. Let us imagine we back a horse at 10.0 for £10; in order to create a potential DOB we try and lay the horse at half the odds for double the stake – so we set a lay at 5.0 for £20. If the horse hits 5.0 or lower in running, our lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result we will win £10 (less commission).

The basic mathematics behind it are shown in the table below:

 

 

For dobbing to be profitable long term, we are probably looking to have a success rate of around 53% or more. This figure has to be a bit higher than a 50.1% baseline as we need to take commission into account.

Scene set, here are some Royal Ascot dobbing data. Mainly, I wanted to see if the price of the horse made a difference. Below is a graph that shows the dobbing percentages for different BSP price bands:

 

 

Horses priced under BSP 2.02 cannot ‘DOB’ hence why the lowest price band starts at 2.02. Horses priced between 2.02 and 4.25 have got close to a 50% dob rate, but the rest have been well below the type of figures we would be looking for to make a profit.

What about the distance of the race? Can that make a difference?

 

 

The graph clearly shows that the longer the race at Royal Ascot the more chance a horse has of dobbing. The longest distances of 2 miles or more have hit over 45% but still some way short of that 53% figure we would be looking for to edge towards profit.

If we combine the best BSP price band of 2.02 to 4.25 with races 2 miles or further, we would have hit a 65% DOB rate. However, before we get too excited this comes from a small sample of 23 runners.

Finally, on the in-play front, it should be noted that 80% of all winners traded higher than their BSP in running. So, if as a punter your preference is betting BSP, it may be worth considering setting pre-race a slightly higher figure than the expected BSP for a small proportion of your overall stake. For the record 39 of the 40 winners of 1-mile non-handicaps traded higher in running than their BSP.

 

Royal Ascot Trainer Form

Top Trainers by Win Strike Rate

Before closing, I wanted to review some Royal Ascot trainer data. With the level of racing being so competitive it is difficult for even the very best trainers to be consistently successful, and the highest win strike rate for any trainer who has had at least 50 runners in the past ten years is just 13.5% - not surprisingly it’s Aidan O’Brien. He has saddled an impressive 48 winners but from 355 runners.

John Gosden, and now with son Thady on the licence, has been the best of the British with 32 winners at a strike rate of 11.5%. No other trainer has saddled more than 20 winners and only three have hit double figures, namely Charlie Appleby (15), Andrew Balding (12) and Roger Varian (11).

To avoid big odds winners skewing bottom lines, let me share the trainer results for horses priced BSP 24.0 or less. To be included a trainer must have had at least 25 qualifying runners:

 

 

Seven of the 19 managed a profit but for some - notably Appleby, Beckett, Cox, Hannon and Joseph O’Brien - it has been hard going in terms of returns. Even Aidan O’Brien would have lost us more than 15p in the £.

 

Top Trainers by Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB)

It is also worth sharing the PRBs for these trainers with BSP 24.0 or lower priced runners and these were as follows:

 

 

One trainer in particular who we can say has been unlucky is Clive Cox. He has by far the best PRB of any of the trainers at 0.73, but has managed just three winners from 32. That PRB figure, though, does nod to the fact that Cox saddled ten placed runners as well as the trio of winners, and backing all of his Royal Ascot runners to place would have yielded a 25p in the £ profit on the Betfair Place market.

 

Specific Royal Ascot Trainer Angles

There are some additional trainer stats I wish to share based on the BSP price cap of 24.0.

  1. The Gosdens in Group 1s have secured a near 30% strike rate thanks to 13 winners from 44. Backing all runners blind would have yielded a return of 64 pence in the £.
  2. Meanwhile backing all Aidan O’Brien runners priced 24.0 or less would have seen significant losses of over 34p in the £.
  3. Charlie Appleby has a poor record when saddling the favourite at Royal Ascot with just three winners from 21 (SR 14.3%) for hefty losses of £13.49 (ROI -64.3%).
  4. Roger Varian has had an outstanding record when his horses have started favourite, winning 61.5% of the time thanks to eight winners from 13. Backing all Varian favourites to BSP would have seen an excellent profit of £20.31 (ROI +156.3%).
  5. Another poor Charlie Appleby stat is that in handicaps he has had just one win from 43 with losses of 84 pence in the £.
  6. Keep an eye on NH guru Willie Mullins when he sends a runner here that raced in a NH race last time out. Of the 23 such entries, six have won (SR 26.1%) for a profit of £11.94 (ROI +51.9%). Backing these types to place on Betfair would have yielded a further 20p in the £ return.

 

Royal Ascot 2026 promises to be an absolute treat for us racing and betting fans. Hopefully there is something in this piece to help you get your nose in front whether you're a backer, a layer or a trader. Good luck to those who will be punting during this meeting. I'll be sharing the race previews with a strong panel of experts next week before returning with my regular column the following week.

Until then...

- DR

Monday Musings: Money Back!

/in /by

How many races do you think have been started from stalls in the UK since the obscure rule change which caused such havoc in the Epsom betting ring after Christmas Day won the Betfred Derby on Saturday, writes Tony Stafford.

I would suggest thousands, but that woke alteration allowed the Epsom stewards to declare never-in-the-hunt Betfred Derby favourite Benvenuto Cellini a non-runner for getting his leg over (rather stuck in) the stalls. No doubt he’ll be getting his leg over in the proscribed way later in life. Yes, this weekend we saw the first running of the Woke Derby.

Imperfect starts have always been a part of racing. While on this very public occasion the finicky stewards decided to intervene after the fact, multiple examples of slow starts historically have been ignored.

Often on the flat, starters let the fields go, not noticing when one or more horses might be in various states of discomfort in the stalls, their jockeys imploring “wait sir, wait!” Either they do or they don’t, tough! How many times have we seen hoods coming off too late? What an unseemly dish to set before the King!

Then while jumping starts at the workaday meetings are allowed to go off where the jockeys want to be placed, at the big very public and most important meetings like Cheltenham and Aintree, again fussy officialdom often ruins the race. Multiple false starts and unsatisfactory standing still departures immediately end many horses’ chances before they go a yard.

Ahead of Saturday’s controversy, Christmas Day continued the theme that you can never ignore Aidan O’Brien’s “other runners” in the Derby. It proved a truism once more, the 7/1 winner attracting far more interest in the market than the favourite and even trumping presumed second choice Pierre Bonnard, a laboured seventh under Christophe Soumillon.

The key to finding the Derby winner is 1) with now ten of the last 15 winners (67%) of the race, it must be an Aidan horse. 2) if you ignore Ryan Moore who now has missed out on five of the last seven Coolmore winners, find a jockey that’s never got near winning it before, often one that’s never ridden in the race!

Step up Ronan Whelan. Like so many, Aidan included, Whelan spent plenty of time in his younger days with Jim Bolger. This is his second year as back up to Moore and super stand-in Wayne Lordan, and Epsom on Saturday was his ultimate reward.

It happened for Lordan with Lambourn last year and Lordan it was on the fourth O’Brien runner Action, who set the pace on Saturday with Christmas Day at his elbow. The other two Coolmore runners were held behind the nice even pace that Lordan excels at.

Into the straight it wasn’t long before Christmas Day took the lead, edging into the middle of the rain-softened ground and drawing away much as Lambourn and that other surprise O’Brien winner of the modern era, Serpentine, did in 2020. The difference this time was the ground. It had completely obliterated Calandagan in the £1 million Coolmore Coronation Cup earlier, won in spectacular fashion by George Scott’s Bay City Roller, and several in the Derby field were similarly inconvenienced.

Not Christmas Day though. His sire Camelot was an 8/13 shot when winning the race in 2012, the first of that run of ten in 15, with Joseph O’Brien in the saddle. Having beaten French Fifteen at Newmarket, it just needed the St Leger for him to emulate Nijinsky 42 years earlier. Encke has his name on the historical record but nobody believes him the moral winner.

With 14 runners contesting the prizes which went down from £1 million for the winner to £20k for tenth, there wasn’t much room for horses’ being eased, apart that was for the toiling Benvenuto Cellini who passed the post miles behind all bar last home Poker.

Though nothing ever seemed likely to catch the winner, with Maltese Cross, Joseph’s James J Braddock, and Bay Of Brilliance the next three home, I enjoyed seeing Julie Wood’s colours flashing home in fifth. Alderman earned his owner £80k, not bad for a horse rated only 83. Saturday’s 100/1 shot is in for a big hike tomorrow, but the thrill that the Richard Hannon colt gave her a day or so after her birthday is irreplaceable.

Very few owners stick as much to their principles and methods as Julie. While others wait until the yearling sales. Julie always buys foals on her own judgment. This one, a son of Study Of Man, cost 42,000gns at the foal sale in 2023 and has been well worth the wait. Many observers feel the lower limit of 80 for horses qualifying to run in the Derby should be raised. Mrs Wood, Hannon and Alderman are eloquent advocates of why it is fine as it is.

Sixth was another outsider, the Faye Bramey-trained Rebel Rocker, a 66/1 shot, although at 99, he was rated a full 16lb higher than the horse that ran past him in the closing stages. Faye has worked closely for a long time with A P McCoy and she is sure to have more success with Jennifer Dorey’s home bred.

Memories in horse racing are very short and I hadn’t remembered that Christmas Day started the 11/4 favourite for what many regard as the prime Derby trial, the Dante Stakes at York last month. He was comfortably put in his place in third by Item and, for a long time, that Andrew Balding-trained Juddmonte-owned colt was the biggest market threat to Saturday's favourite, winner of the Chester Vase as his trial.

But the ground was clearly a worry for Item as he drifted out to 11/2 before finishing a remote ninth. Christmas Day moved the other way in the market. Priced at 14/1 in the Racing Post forecast in the morning he started at half those odds and with the 25p in the pound deduction bookmakers could (although some did not) apply, that equates to nearer 5/1.

Camelot joins Galileo (four wins) and Australia, with Lambourn last year, as O’Brien Derby winners that then sired winners of the Classic. We always wondered which of the array of new stallions that would fill that area of Galileo’s brilliance. Camelot seems the most likely.

Friday’s Oaks was another O’Brien tour-de-force, but in this case it was son Joseph and the Frankel filly Thundering On that exploded past and away from the Gosdens’ well-supported Legacy Link by almost four lengths.

Until Thundering On appeared on the scene, victory seemed assured for Legacy Link as that Dubawi filly had taken it up from Sugar Island, least fancied of the three Aidan O’Brien runners at 25/1 and another daughter of Dubawi. I watched at close hand as Aidan saddled his three Oaks contenders in the paddock beforehand and had to smile when the first girth tried on the strapping Sugar Island failed to go around her by a good few inches. She is some physical specimen!

She looks one that will take her races going forward even though Thundering On was ten lengths ahead of her by the line. Sadly, my role as chief cheerleader fell flat. The boss’s 100/1 bet on favourite Amelia Earhart never looked like materialising. There’s aways next year, Matt!

If you were a trainer with a Derby (Motivator) and Oaks winner (Sariska) to your name, where would you prefer to have been on Saturday? Michael Bell found himself watching maybe 45 minutes of cricket al Lord’s on an awful day which not only spoilt the Test match for spectators on the worst pitch ever at the Headquarters of cricket, but also ruined hopes of a big attendance on the imaginatively improved Hill at Epsom.

At least Michael’s viewing of the Derby wasn’t interrupted, neither was his winner of a £51k race, £25k to the winner, that Blues And Royals won with a last-stride dip of the head at Musselburgh. Blues And Royals is in triple ownership, but I was delighted that the white colours, dark blue cap of Jonathan Barnett passed the line in front.

That’s three nice wins so far. Could he sneak into the Britannia, probably not, but that sort of win keeps owners happy. At least I had something to cheer on Saturday!

- TS

Analysing Racing Post Ratings (UK Flat)

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An Analysis of the Racing Post Ratings in UK Turf flat racing

An excellent addition to the Query Tool back in December 2025 was the ability to query Racing Post Ratings (RPR), writes Dave Renham. Hence, I, along with other Geegeez Gold members, can now delve into past stats for this long-established rating method.

In this article I plan to dig into RPRs to try and unearth some positive or negative angles that hopefully we can employ successfully this year and into the future. It is not for me discuss the pros and cons of how the RPR figure we see in the racecard is calculated. Ultimately, this is a formula or method that the Racing Post have been using for many years, so we need to assume they are happy with their product.

 

Introduction

My focus for this piece is UK turf flat racing and I will be analysing the RPR figures for this specific race code. The time frame studied runs from the start of 2020 through to the end of 2025, six full turf seasons. All profit/loss figures have been calculated to BSP less 2% commission.

In the past I have had conversations with respected racing analysts who have compiled ratings, be they speed or ability ratings, and, for them, to judge the effectiveness of their ratings the win strike rate is very important. The top-rated runner should have the highest win percentage, gradually reducing for the other ranking positions.

Obviously, it is hoped the top-rated runner is going to be the best performer in terms of returns as well; however, it is important to point out that regardless of how good a set of ratings is, speed or form-based, we cannot expect the top-rated runner to secure a blind profit over thousands of races.

 

Overall Performance by RPR Ranking

Let’s start with looking at the win percentages (strike rates) for different rated runners. This covers all races on the turf over the period of study. The horizontal axis is labelled from 1 which stands for the top-rated runner, 2 the second rated and so on:

 

Bar chart of Win SR% by RPR rating position (1 to 8+). Highest at 1st place with 22.5%, then 2nd 14.9%, 3rd 11.9%, 4th 10.8%, 5th 9.2%, 6th 8.2%, 7th 7.2%, and 8+ at 5.5%. Title: UK Turf Racing 2020 to 2025 All Races Position in the RPR Ratings by Win SR%.

 

The strike rate for top-rated runners has been better than one win in every five races which is excellent for any set of ratings. More importantly perhaps, the win percentages have correlated positively with the rated positions producing the sliding scale I was talking about earlier. It is interesting, though, to see quite a big gap between the top two rated.

If we look at the Each Way (win & placed) strike rates, we have seen a similar pattern:

 

Bar chart showing EW SR% ratings by finish position: 1st 46.8%, 2nd 36.6%, 3rd 31.7%, 4th 29.1%, 5th 26.7%, 6th 24.8%, 7th 22.7%, 8th+ 18.7%.

 

The top-rated runner has the highest percentage once more, and the sliding scale is replicated showing positive correlation with the win only figures.

Finally, in terms of the individual rating positions, let me share the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) figures. Being able to share these is down to another of the recent Geegeez additions of having PRB figures available in the Query Tool Results Summary. The splits were as follows:

 

Bar chart of UK turf RPR ratings by finish position; 1st = 0.63, down to 8+ = 0.43.

 

The same type of graph has appeared a third time. Therefore, the RPR ratings have conformed well to the pattern we would expect for a good set of ratings.

 

RPR Top Rated

Overview

From here, it made sense to me to focus on the RPR top-rated horses to see if there were any positive or indeed negative angles. Hence let me look at the record of every single RPR top-rated runner since 2020:

 

Performance summary table: Runs 26,084; Wins 5,861; Win % 22.47%; BSP P/L −1,565.67; BSP ROI −6%; PRB 0.63.

 

Despite the excellent strike rate, losses have been steeper than perhaps might have been expected. As a general rule I am guessing these runners have been notably overbet. It is now time to dig a bit deeper.

RPR top-rated runners - Yearly strike rates

Let me start the digging process by comparing the yearly figures.

 

Table of yearly performance (2020–2025) with Runs, Wins, Win %, BSP P/L, BSP ROI, and PRB. 2020: 3925 runs, 755 wins, 19.24% win; BSP P/L -182.38; ROI -4.65%; PRB 0.61. 2021: 5082 runs, 1084 wins, 21.33% win; BSP P/L -472.94; ROI -9.31%; PRB 0.62. 2022: 4245 runs, 1028 wins, 24.22% win; BSP P/L -350.64; ROI -8.26%; PRB 0.65. 2023: 4238 runs, 979 wins, 23.1% win; BSP P/L -341.44; ROI -8.06%; PRB 0.65. 2024: 4211 runs, 977 wins, 23.2% win; BSP P/L -125.14; ROI -2.97%; PRB 0.64. 2025: 4383 runs, 1038 wins, 23.68% win; BSP P/L -93.13; ROI -2.12%; PRB 0.64.

 

All years have shown a loss for the top-rated runner although the last two years have been the best, or least worst, in terms of returns.

RPR top-rated runners – Record by Month

A look now to see whether the time of year has made any difference to the returns. The graph below shows the splits:

 

Chart title reads: 'UK Turf Racing 2020 to 2025 - All Races BSP ROI% for Top-Rated RPR Runners by Month'. A 3D bar chart shows BSP ROI% by month (March/April through November) with negative ROI values in several months and positive values in others, and a legend mapping colors to each month. Axis labels read 'ROI% (BSP)' on the vertical axis and 'Month' on the horizontal axis.

 

Based on these data, the top-rated runners have performed far better in the Autumn than at any other time of the year. In the height of summer (July & August) top-rated RPR runners produced quite poor returns. I wonder if this has been a case of the top-rated runners being overbet even more than normal?

RPR top-rated runners - Market Rank

I would now like to share the performance of the top-rated runners in terms of market position / rank. The splits over the period of study were as follows:

 

Table of betting market ranks with runs, wins and profitability metrics. Rows: Favourite (10,237 runs; 3,736 wins; 36.5% win rate; BSP P/L -375.87; BSP ROI -3.67; PRB 0.75), 2nd favourite (5,204 runs; 1,123 wins; 21.58% win; -145.31; -2.79; 0.65), 3rd in betting (3,296 runs; 448 wins; 13.59% win; -344.49; -10.45; 0.58), 4th+ in betting (7,347 runs; 554 wins; 7.54% win; -700; -9.53; 0.48).

 

Overall, the RPR top-rated runners would have lost us far less money when most closely aligned with market sentiment, specifically when starting either favourite or second favourite.

RPR top-rated runners - Handicaps versus non-handicaps

The table below illustrates the difference between handicaps and non-handicaps in terms of RPR top-rated horses.

 

Table comparing two race types (Non-Handicap vs Handicap) with performance metrics: runs, wins, win percentage, BSP P/L, BSP ROI, and PRB.

 

As we should expected, top-rated non-handicap runners had the better win rate; but returns for each were very similar with an ROI difference between the two of just 0.58%.

RPR top-rated runners - Age of horse

Onto the age breakdown now.

 

Table of per-age statistics: Ages 2 through 9+, with Runs, Wins, Win %, BSP P/L (negative in red), BSP ROI, and PRB. Highlights include higher Wins and Run totals for older ages; red BSP values indicate losses.

 

There is a strong correlation between relative youth and win strike rate: younger top-rated RPR runners won a lot more than older ones. This is also true if we look at handicaps and non-handicaps separately.

One interesting age stat is for top-rated RPR 3yo runners in non-handicaps. They have had 902 winners from 2406 runners (SR 37.5%) for a very small loss of £22.04 (ROI -0.9%). This is the strongest cohort in terms of top-rated runners to date.

At the other end of the spectrum, older horses, those nine or above, have struggled in all races and they look best avoided.

 

RPR top-rated runners - Run style

Finally for top-rated runners I want to share performance by run style – possibly my favourite area of research. Firstly, a look at the win strike rates (within their specific run style groups):

 

Bar chart of win SR% by run style in UK turf racing 2020–2025: Led 32.9%, Prominent 24.6%, Mid Division 18.5%, Held up 15.9%.

 

We see an extremely familiar pattern when it comes to run style stats where early leaders/front runners have comfortably attained the best win percentage within their group while hold up horses endured the lowest.

Of course, we do not know pre-race what the run style of each horse will be and hence any profit/loss data shared is essentially hypothetical. However, I always like to show the splits to help emphasise the run style bias:

 

Informational table comparing run styles (Led, Prominent, Mid Division, Held Up) with Runs, Wins, Win %, BSP P/L, BSP ROI, and PRB values.

 

Essentially, if the RPR top-rated runner leads early then we have a huge value selection.

 

2nd Top Rated RPR

Overall, the performance of the top-rated RPR runner has been a little disappointing and, as I alluded to earlier, my feeling is that they have tended to be overbet. However, if the top-rated runner performance has been modest, horses second in the RPR Ratings have performed much better in terms of returns. Here are their overall figures:

 

Table of performance statistics: Runs 25,140; Wins 3,736; Win% 14.86; BSP P/L -176.57; BSP ROI -0.7; PRB 0.56.

 

Losses to £1 level stakes at BSP very close to break even over the period of study.

Let me drill deeper into the second rated runner to see whether we can find a positive angle or two.

 

RPR 2nd rated runners - Handicaps versus non-handicaps

I want to start with handicaps versus ‘nons’ as we immediately ‘hit’ our first positive.

 

Table comparing Non-Handicap and Handicap race types: Non-Handicap 6894 runs, 1277 wins (18.52%), BSP P/L 385.11, BSP ROI 5.59, PRB 0.63; Handicap 18246 runs, 2459 wins (13.48%), BSP P/L -561.68, BSP ROI -3.08, PRB 0.53.

 

Horses second in the ratings have made a steady profit in non-handicaps which is impressive considering this is every single qualifier. All of this profit came from younger horses, those aged two to four. This cohort hit a win rate of 19% thanks to 1186 wins from 6253 producing a profit of £438.40 (ROI +7%).

 

RPR 2nd rated runners – Horses with an ISP of 12/1 or less

As we know, some bottom lines can be skewed by big priced winners, so I narrowed down the group to those that had an Industry SP of 12/1 or less. Again, I have split handicaps and non-handicaps:

 

Table comparing race types: Non-Handicap vs Handicap statistics with runs, wins, win rate, BSP P/L, BSP ROI and PRB. Non-Handicap 5973 runs, 1244 wins (20.83%), BSP P/L 120.29, ROI 2.01, PRB 0.66; Handicap 14499 runs, 2336 wins (16.11%), BSP P/L -52.63, ROI -0.36, PRB 0.57.

 

Handicap runners made a very small loss, while non-handicap runners within this price bracket enjoyed returns of 2p in the £.

Let me now share three further positive angles I found for those second top in the RPR Ratings. I am going to keep the price restriction of 12/1 or shorter in place for all three:

  1. Second rated runners ridden by a claiming jockey produced 558 wins from 3420 (SR 16.3%) for a profit of £137.24 (ROI +4%).
  2. Fillies and mares when second in the ratings secured a strike rate of 18.2% (1145 wins from 6289) for a profit of £227.50 (ROI +3.6%).
  3. Sticking with mares, those aged five or six and second in the ratings enjoyed a great record, with 170 wins from 874 runners (SR 19.5%) for a decent profit of £233.71 (ROI +26.7%). It should be noted that five- and six-year-old mares would also have secured a small profit if focusing on horses priced over 12/1.

  

RPR 2nd rated runners – Run Style

Finally, let me share the run style figures for those second in the RPR Ratings. To allow the best comparison against the top-rated RPR stats shared earlier these results will cover all races and all prices:

 

Chart titled 'UK Turf Racing 2020 to 2025 - All Races Win SR% for Second rated RPR Runners by Run Style' showing four orange bars on a pink background: Led 22.0%, Prominent 16.4%, Mid Division 12.3%, Held up 10.9%, with a vertical axis labeled Win SR% and a Run Style axis listing Led, Prominent, Mid Division, Held up.

 

We'd expect lower strike rates for each group compared with the top-rated stats, but what about returns?

 

Table of run styles with statistics: Led (4673 runs, 1029 wins, 22.02% win rate; BSP P/L 2211.95; BSP ROI 47.33; PRB 0.62), Prominent (7020 runs, 1152 wins, 16.41% win rate; BSP P/L -41.4; BSP ROI -0.59; PRB 0.58), Mid Division (6351 runs, 784 wins, 12.34% win rate; BSP P/L -885.03; BSP ROI -13.94; PRB 0.55), Held Up (7011 runs, 764 wins, 10.9% win rate; BSP P/L -1421.43; BSP ROI -20.27; PRB 0.51).

 

The front running (led) stats have been off the chart in terms of potential returns. In contrast, the losses for mid div and held up runners were quite significant.

 

*

 

The Racing Post Ratings have been around since the late eighties when they were known as ‘Postmark’ and are long established. Based on the recent evidence shared in this piece, the better value has been with those runners rated second in the ratings. I think that top-rated runners have been consistently overbet, thus making the second rated runners better value generally speaking.

I have yet to dig into the performance of the Racing Post Ratings in terms of either All Weather or National Hunt codes; so it will be interesting to see what I find. That research will be done some time in the Autumn with hopefully enlightening articles to follow.

Until next time...

- DR

Monday Musings: Now I’ve Seen Everything

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Finally, after more than 70 years of watching horse racing, I can honestly say I’ve seen everything, writes Tony Stafford.

We’ve been used to witnessing Aidan O’Brien horses filling the first three positions in Classic races maybe not that frequently. It happens enough not to be a total surprise when it does. Never, though, I venture, have we seen anything to match the stage management that led to yesterday’s clean sweep in the Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) at Chantilly.

Aidan’s trio finished the right way round in the end as favourite Constitution River, yes over there rather than at Epsom on Saturday in the “real” Derby, under a sublime Ryan Moore, edged out Hawk Mountain and Christophe Soumillon, with outsider Montreal, on their heels in third under an inspired ride from the front by reliable number two Wayne Lordan.

I wonder how many of the Ballydoyle entourage bothered or even thought to risk a little on the Tricast on the Pari-Mutuel. It paid €167.55 for a €1 stake!

Sixteen horses turned out for this 10.5 furlongs with Ryan drawn widest bar-one in 15, a position reckoned by many experts impossible from which to win. Those experts, including the extremely experienced Sky Sports Racing team on scene, reckoned Ryan would have to “drop in” to overcome the disadvantageous position.

Instead, he “dropped out” widest of all in clear isolation in the early running as Lordan from the middle aimed and effected a fast break to get to the inside. Soumillon was soon at the head of the big group up the middle, and you could understand the enormity of the favourite’s task as Constitution River was needing plenty of encouragement throughout the entire race as he was so wide as the turns unfolded.

By the time they had straightened for home, the Ballydoyle trio had worked their way into the podium places as Karl Burke’s Hankelow, echoing his prominent role in the French 2,000 Guineas, started to flag. He had finished a close third over the mile at Longchamp behind St James’s Palace-bound Rayif and yesterday’s rival Komorebi.

The stock of that race took a dive yesterday, Komorebi finishing only tenth and Burke’s horse fading away to 13th.

Winding up for the final thrust a furlong from home, the three Coolmore colts were in a line. If anything, you were wondering, certainly I was, whether Montreal was going to spring the shock. Hawk Mountain, winner of last year’s Futurity at Doncaster where he beat next Saturday’s Epsom race favourite Benvenuto Cellini, was also fully extended, but Ryan was the one with the most resources at his disposal.

It wasn’t until the last 75 yards that the result was etched on the trophy with Michael Tabor’s blue edging out Derrick Smith’s purple, Sue Magnier’s second pink silks gracing the third home. That the final margin had stretched to threequarters of a length at the line suggested strongly that Constitution River would have had a favourite’s chance over another furlong and a half at Epsom had he been sent there.

For years, we’ve had the supreme hurdler turned nine-year-old embryo flat performer Constitution Hill as the most popular racehorse. Maybe Constitution River will do enough in his career to give pause for thought. The world as they say, is his – you know what.

And as if the O’Brien family didn’t have enough to celebrate yesterday, out of the pack into fourth came A Boy Named Susie. His trainer? None other than Aidan and Anne-Marie O’Brien’s younger son Donnacha and owned by his (Donnacha’s) sister Ana, no mean jockey herself until injury curtailed her career.

Yesterday’s winner and runner-up were among the 22 left in the Betfred Derby at the latest stage. The already humbled French – don’t fret mes chers, the English team were similarly blown away – do not have a single horse standing in the Classic unless connections wish to put up the requisite supplementary fee of £90,000 by noon today.

To recoup that, your horse would have to finish in the first four of the £1 million to the winner, and £2 million total, contest. Prizes for the Betfred Derby dribble down to tenth, almost in the way of the sales races for two-year-olds, but from a fittingly more handsome starting point.

The best that the home team could muster yesterday was the 37 grand picked up by fifth-home Alam. Aidan will be credited with £1.2 million in the French trainers’ prizemoney list or rather €1.37 million and the winner’s €857k (or if you prefer £745,000) will swell by another €282k as he is French-bred, while his stablemates are not. I wondered why they decided to go there!

Ana O’Brien’s 74 grand is likely to be swamped by what she can expect to field in offers for her colt from the ever-ravenous Australian stables who have so much money to spend.

As my old pal Lew Day told me the other week, he retained a half-share in his horse Raheen House when he went to race in Australia, there were maybe a hundred joint-owners sharing the other half, a worthwhile punt if you have the prizemoney to offer as they do.

I guess it’s possible there might be a supplementary entry or two, although whether anyone will be daring enough after this O’Brien 1-2-3 is debatable.

Suppose the bare 20 all stay in, that would mean ten for the home team including smart pair Item (Andrew Balding) and Maltese Cross (William Haggas) and again ten from Ireland, eight from Aidan and two trained by his elder son Joseph, including James J Braddock which got up late to beat Aidan’s Pierre Bonnard in the Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial at Leopardstown last time.

James J Braddock already has part Australian ownership, a group having acquired a share from noted Irish media expert (and Joseph advisor) Kevin Blake. Joseph bought the son of Zarak as a yearling for 40,000gns. His stud fee in France this year was €80k, so some bargain, never mind what he has already collected for his now part-owner. A share of the £1 million would still do nicely.

Benvenuto Cellini is now 2/1 best to make it 12 Derby wins for O’Brien and 13 for Michael Tabor. Item is only 4/1 now after that smooth Dante win at York, with Pierre Bonnard and Lingfield trial winner Maltese Cross coming next.

With the money after the winner standing at £400k; £200k; £130k; £80k; £50k; £35k; £30k; £25k and £20k, I wonder if we will see a Michael Dickinson-type domination on Saturday? Could the Famous Five of the 1983 Cheltenham Gold Cup be usurped by a Superb Six, a Superlative Seven of even an Extraordinary Eight? Probably not, and for the home trainers with hopes of winning the most important prize in the calendar, let’s hope it doesn’t happen.

I’m sure that Saturday’s revelation of the 16 six-day acceptors (four supplementary) for Friday’s Oaks at Epsom brought the chill of dread to the Editor with Precise poised to line up with/against Amelia Earhart depending on your point of view.

Does the stretching-out to 1m4f for the first time of an ultra-impressive Guineas-winning filly trump the emphatic Cheshire Oaks-winning form at just a half-furlong or so short of the Classic trip of her stablemate?

It might not even be a case of whether Ryan Moore or Wayne Lordan rides which of the pair. Lordan rode True Love to win the 1,000 Guineas as Moore on Precise was a sleepy seventh. At the Curragh, a rejuvenated, if you can call it that after one run off a setback, Precise with Lordan up, slaughtered her old rival, now under Ryan, with the finishing speed of a true champion.

He’s done it successfully before, but will Aidan want to test his belief that Precise will stay another four furlongs so soon after the Curragh against the certainty of knowing she would be the one to beat if turning up for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot? Nervy times – as I said, depending on your point of view.

What yesterday in Chantilly told us, is that even after all this time, Aidan O’Brien is getting better every year in his role as custodian of the Coolmore breeding operation. I’ll never again subscribe to the view that anything he attempts is unlikely to happen.

- TS

Analysis of 3yo and 3yo+ Maiden Races

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3yo and 3yo+ maidens – a deep dive

As I have mentioned before my preference from a betting perspective is flat racing and, within the flat sphere, I primarily bet in handicaps, writes Dave Renham. In this article however, I will be looking 3yo only and 3yo+ non-handicap maiden races. I have researched eight full years of data spanning from 2018 to 2025 for UK flat and AW racing. All profits and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission on any winning bets.

Market Rank

Let me start with the betting market and, specifically, the Betfair market (BSP). I want to share the stats by market position:

 

Table showing betting market by position (Favourite to 5th+ in betting): runs, wins, win% and BSP place line (PL) and ROI for each position.

 

Favourites have made the tiniest of profits to BSP, while those third in market rank have proved to be the best value. Once we hit fourth or bigger in the betting, we see a severe drop off in terms of returns. For the record, favourites returned a profit in both 3yo only and 3yo+ races. Betting all of the top three market ranked horses would have been a marginally profitable endeavour.

The focus clearly should be on horses near the top of the betting, then. This race type is market friendly - more market friendly than the norm. Indeed, if we compare the percentage of races won for horses priced BSP 10.0 or less in 3yo/3yo+ maidens compared with ALL races, we see quite a contrast:

 

Bar chart comparing win rates: ALL races 76.9% vs 3yo/3yo+ maiden races 87.6% (BSP ≤10).

 

As we can see the difference is more than 10%.

Moving on, for virtually all articles I write these days I implement a BSP price cap to try and avoid any huge priced winners skewing the figures. I will do that here, too, and, looking at the overall results, a price cap of BSP 14.0 or less makes sense. The remaining stats shared therefore are based only on horses within the stipulated price cap.

Sex of horse

My first port of call away from the betting market is to look at the record of male horses versus female ones. The breakdown below is based on the results of races open to both sexes. It makes no sense to include male or female only races in any such comparison:

 

Table comparing sex of horse with performance stats: runs, wins, win% and BSP profit/loss and ROI. Males: 2230 runs, 586 wins, 26.28% win; BSP PL -86.9, ROI -3.9%. Females: 772 runs, 181 wins, 23.45% win; BSP PL 70.49, ROI 9.13.

 

As is usually the case, we see far more male runners than females, but the females have provided the value, and by far the best returns of the two when focusing on runners priced BSP 14.0 or less.

Sticking with this theme, I wanted to compare the results of male runners – colts versus geldings. I assumed that the colts would outperform geldings, but I have been known to be wrong in the past. Let me start by comparing the win percentages or win strike rate for each:

 

3D bar chart comparing Win SR% in UK Flat/AW maiden races (2018–2025): Colts 28.5%, Geldings 23.6%; bars labeled Colts and Geldings with percentage values.

 

Colts have had a better win percentage by around 5% in absolute terms and a noteworthy 20% relatively; but has this equated to better value? The A/E index, based on BSP data, should be instructive:

 

Bar chart comparing A/E index: Colts 1.03 vs Geldings 0.96 in UK flat racing maiden races (2018–2025). Readable pink background with two orange bars.

 

According to these numbers, colts have been much better value than geldings, and if we now compare the returns, we can see that this has been the case:

 

Table comparing Colt and Gelding race stats: runs, wins, win percentage, BSP PL and BSP ROI; Colt 1382/394 (28.51%), BSP PL 4.97, ROI 0.36; Gelding 1208/285 (23.59%), BSP PL -99.32, ROI -8.22.

 

In terms of returns to BSP, geldings would have lost us over 8 pence in the £ more than colts, when priced BSP 14.0 or less. However, there is one positive gelding stat to share and that is the record of horses having their very first run after being gelded. This subset of runners won 69 races from 242 runners (SR 28.5%) for a profit of £17.22 (ROI +7.1%).

Age

In terms of age it only makes sense to share the data for races open to more than one age group so the table below includes only 3yo+ maidens over the past eight years.

 

Table of horse ages (3, 4, 5+) with performance: runs and wins, win rate, and BSP profit/loss and ROI.

 

All bar 187 runners have been aged three. As it turns out 4yos have provided the best value but, on average, we saw fewer than 20 qualifiers per year over the period of study. 5yos and up have the worst record from a small sample. It should be noted that this older age group have really struggled when priced above BSP 14.0 – that cohort won just three races from 357 runners. Even backing them to a Betfair place would have lost £161.88, almost half of stakes!

Career starts

Let's now look at exposure, in terms of career starts, to see what that has told us with the price cap in place.

 

Table of racing career statistics by starts (0 to 4+): runs, wins, win percentage, BSP PL, and BSP ROI.

 

Horses making their racecourse debut had the lowest strike rate, as we would expect, but they edged into profit (just). It seems that horses that are making their second start (1 career run) have been overbet, based on the fact that they lost nearly 10p in the £.

Horses with two prior starts have produced the best returns and, if we focus on those that were in the top three in the betting, their figures improve further to 277 wins from 869 (SR 31.9%) for a profit of £97.75 (ROI +11.3%). Maybe slightly surprisingly, horses with four or more career runs also edged into profit.

Position Last Time Out (LTO)

A look now at where the horse finished LTO. Firstly, a look at the win strike rates:

 

Bar chart of win SR% by finishing position in UK 3yo maiden races: 2nd 35.1%, 3rd 25.6%, 4th 25.5%, 5th 19.8%, 6th+ 18.3%

 

Horses that finished runner-up LTO recorded an excellent strike rate and, as we can see, the win rate reduced as the finishing position gets worse. The table below adds more colour:

 

Table of LTO positions with race stats: Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth or worse, listing Runs, Wins, Win %, BSP PL, and BSP ROI. Includes per-row values: Second (1094 runs, 384 wins, 35.1%, BSP PL 70.81, ROI 6.47); Third (773, 198, 25.61%, -93.18, -12.05); Fourth (550, 140, 25.45%, 69.34, 12.61); Fifth (395, 78, 19.75%, -53.6, -13.57); Sixth or worse (667, 122, 18.29%, -51.35, -7.7).

 

As the table shows, runners up have not only a good strike rate, but they have delivered decent profits, too. I am not sure why LTO 4ths have far better returns than those that finished third. My guess is that this is probably an anomaly, though looking at the similar win percentages it could be that they're a touch underbet in relation to third placed finishers.

Days since last run (DSLR)

There are two types of layoff abour which I would like to share some data, because both have shown a profit with runners BSP priced 14.0 or shorter. They are horses returning to the track quickly (within 10 days), and those absent for around 6 months or more (180 days+ to be precise). The table shows the two cohorts:

 

Table of DSLR performance by time period: 1–10 days: 161 runs, 47 wins (29.19%), BSP PL 16.11, BSP ROI 10.01; 180+ days: 565 runs, 153 wins (27.08%), BSP PL 40.5, BSP ROI 7.17.

 

So, either end of the spectrum has proved to be the value.

Trainer Angles

I will finish with some trainer stats. The table below includes those trainers who saddled at least 60 runners at a BSP of 14.0 or shorter during the eight-year review period:

 

Table of trainers with runs, wins, win percentage, and BSP values; highlights top performers and recent negative BSP figures.

 

It is somewhat surprising that only six of the 18 trainers recorded a profit considering what has been shared to date. Indeed, two of the six (bin Suroor and Watson) were only marginally in profit. The performances of Kevin Ryan and the Charlton stable have been especially poor in terms of their returns (worse than 40p in the £). Both look worth avoiding generally in these contests.

On the plus side the three ‘B’s - Balding, Boughey and Burke - all performed well with good strike rates and decent profits to boot.

Let me now share some of the strongest trainer stats (BSP 14.0 or less) I could find in these maiden races and that aforementioned trio own a few, as does the Gosden yard:

  1. Andrew Balding debutants have fared extremely well winning 13 races from 41 starts (SR 31.7%) for a healthy profit of £25.84 (ROI +63%).
  2. Balding with second and third favourites combined has won 25% of races (30 wins from 120) for a profit of £37.90 (ROI +31.6%).
  3. Any runner at Kempton from the Balding stable should be noted based on the past eight years of results. In this timeframe 10 of the 27 runners have won (SR 37%) for a profit of £20.04 (ROI +74.2%).
  4. Balding runners that finished second LTO won 27 races from 69 runners (SR 39.1%) for a profit of £19.28 (ROI +27.9%).
  5. When Oisin Murphy has been on board for Balding, their combined record reads 25 winners from 69 rides (SR 36.2%) for a profit of £32.44 (ROI +47%).
  6. Horses having their second career run for the Gosden stable did well hitting a one in three win rate thanks to 42 wins from 125 with profits of £22.01 (ROI +17.6%).
  7. The Gosdens also performed well with their market leaders thanks to 72 wins from 140 (SR 51.4%) for a profit of £22.92 (ROI +16.4%).
  8. Team Gosden’s second and third favs combined won 41 from 169 (SR 24.3%) for a tidy profit of £38.51 (ROI +22.8%).
  9. George Boughey runners when starting favourite won an amazing 75% of the time (15 wins from 20) for a profit of £12.19 (ROI +61%).
  10. Boughey debutants did well from a small sample, winning 7 races from 16 starts (SR 43.8%) for a profit of 7.20 (ROI +45%).
  11. Boughey’s runners were far better on the turf than the AW. His AW runners made a loss while the turf runners won 14 from 27 (SR 51.9%) for a profit of £32.15 (ROI +119.1%).
  12. Karl Burke-trained favourites scored 12 wins from 18 (SR 66.7%) for a profit of £7.26 (ROI +40.3%).
  13. Burke’s female runners underperformed but his male runners had an exceptional record. They won 16 races from 31, with colts winning 8 from 14 (SR 57.1%) for a profit of £15.06 (ROI +107.6%), and geldings 8 from 17 (SR 47.1%) for a profit of £13.83 (ROI +81.4%).

 

There are some extremely playable trainer stats there, and it will be interesting to see how many continue to prove profitable in the coming months and years.

 

*

 

These three-year-old and 3yo+ maidens have presented some surprisingly positive angles over the past few seasons and I will certainly be looking at more such races in the future with a view to potentially have a bet based on the research shared above. I hope there are some takeaways for you, too.

Until next time...

- DR

Monday Musings: Perfectly Precise

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You can routinely analyse form as pounds for lengths, but as yesterday’s Irish 1,000 Guineas proved, expecting past form to be repeated is not always as Precise as experts might think it to be, writes Tony Stafford.

On a weekend where Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore had previously got everything right in tandem, including Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas with Gstaad, along came Precise to make a monkey of Coolmore’s number one for the second time in less than a month.

Precise, a filly Ryan had never previously ridden owing to last autumn’s lengthy injury spell, was his mount as the 9/5 favourite in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket. She finished only seventh as stable-companion True Love, for one race at least, dispelled any doubts about her stamina for a Classic mile.

True Love, as did Precise, had experience at the top level on her side but also proven fitness with a run this year. Ryan instead partnered the filly that O’Brien had referred to in the most glowing of terms as she went through the grades last autumn. Precise’s preparation for the Rowley Mile had been interrupted this spring, but despite this, confidence in her remained strong.

The Coolmore team never shrinks from giving a back-up to their number one contender in the big races and now at the Curragh Precise was the perceived number two. The reasoning is, if one can’t win it, maybe the other one can. As somebody very wise used to say, it’s not what you lose, it’s what you win, and Coolmore has not been for many years over-protective of its top horses.

The race split into two groups, and Ryan on the far side on True Love sat close to Godolphin’s Abashiri, who had been ahead of Precise in fifth at Newmarket. When Moore asked for her effort, she smoothly got to William Buick’s mount but took a while to settle the issue. Then, from the back of the stands-side sextet, Wayne Lordan, as on True Love at Newmarket, upset the expected Ballydoyle order.

Precise was regarded by O’Brien last year as one of the best juvenile fillies he had ever trained. It must be a source of great pride that she is a product of his family’s Whisperview Trading Ltd breeding operation. The speed she showed here to cut back the front two in half a furlong and then power two-and-a half lengths clear was truly exhilarating. Aidan’s estimate of her ability and potential clearly wasn’t misguided.

At Newmarket, many were surprised that True Love, who with the precocity of being a five-furlong Queen Mary Royal Ascot winner hardly had the profile of a Guineas filly, lasted as well up the hill at HQ as she did. Here, it was Precise with extravagant acceleration that quickly made up the ground and burst clear. Now they have two more Classic winning fillies to grace their pedigrees for the coming years.

I know one person who will now be quaking in his boots as he awaits news of which of the Oaks, French Oaks or the Coronation Stakes over a mile at Royal Ascot will be the next option for Precise. How about the Oaks followed by the Coronation? And Aidan still has the facile French 1,000 winner Diamond Necklace to sort out a programme for. Most people seem to think it will be back to France for the Prix de Diane (French Oaks). You can’t make it up, as a pal of mine was saying at Yarmouth the other night.

He (no, not my friend at Yarmouth) has a decent bet at 100/1 about the existing Oaks favourite Amelia Earhart, but he must be in trepidation whether the Cheshire Oaks winner will have to contend with Precise. It will not be unprecedented for a dyed in the wool mile and a half filly to be usurped at Epsom by a speedier animal, even though you must have stayed if you win an Oaks - or a Derby for that matter. After all, they thought City Of Troy wouldn’t stay, but class and acceleration were his weapons.

The generations of Galileo colts and fillies have finally gone while probably his most potent successor as a stallion of potential champions, Wootton Bassett, is also no longer with us. His progeny will be available for a year or two more.

Market moves are always instructive at this time of year and the flow of money that has brought Wootton Bassett’s son Constitution River to the head of the Derby betting at 5/2, replacing his fellow Chester winner (Vase) Benvenuto Cellini at the head of some books has to be significant. Oath (Henry Cecil) in 1999 and Kris Kin, Michael Stoute, four years later, were the most recent Dee Stakes winners that went on to Epsom glory.

Constitution River had a concrete boost to what had seemed a bloodless seven-length margin in the ten-furlong test when the third horse home, Golden Story, won Saturday’s Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood for Karl Burke.

I know the ground can be soft at Chester, but it was still no mean feat on quick going for Constitution River to record comfortably the fastest-ever time for the race since its reduction to the present distance in the 1970s. Considering the strength of either homebreds from Coolmore with its colossal stock of top-class mares, or such as Whisperview Trading and other close, long-standing associates, it has become an unequal task for stables with the odd top class horse to stave off their power.

It is something of a surprise, then, that Constitution River comes from a French nursery and M V Magnier was able to buy him at €400k. It’s not that they are merely clever with producing and improving stallions – they also know how to work the sales.

Aidan’s love for Chester – he’s won the Vase 12 times and the Dee Stakes 13, including eight of the last nine – is well documented, and I’ve enjoyed seeing quite a few of them at close hand apart from missing the last two or three.

The winners haven’t always gone on to be stars at the top end of racing, but the 2024 scorer Capulet did take part in quite a momentous race in Sha Tin yesterday. Romantic Warrior, the eight-year-old who vies with sprinter Ka Ying Rising as the favourite horse in Hong Kong even though his younger rival deservedly had the edge on ratings as the top international horse of 2025, won the 24th race of his 31-run career.

It took him a long time to win the 1m4f turf event, James McDonald having to make up ground on two leaders turning for home. One of these, the former Capulet, now named Romantic Thor in Hong Kong, finished fourth as Romantic Warrior took his world leading career earnings beyond £28 million.

What Aidan didn’t win over the two days at the Curragh, sons Joseph and Donnacha filled in with three victories between them. Last month Donnacha took the four-year-old sprinter Comanche Brave on a speculative trip to Hong Kong to take on Ka Ying Rising. He finished fifth, eight lengths behind the home champion, a project which brought a handsome £80k reward for his first run of the year.

To show just how adaptable a stallion Wootton Bassett is, he is the sire of Comanche Brave, now the easy winner of the Group 3 Greenlands Stakes over six furlongs on Saturday. Good stallions get winners at all distances, subject to the quality of the mares. While it’s never a Precise rule of breeding, Coolmore seems always to have the bases covered. We’ll see just how well, when they collect the Derby and Oaks double. Mr Editor, I hope Precise stays away!

- TS

Instant Expert for 5f Handicaps: An Analysis

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An investigation into the Geegeez Instant Expert, Part 2

This is the second of a two-parter in which I take a look at the Instant Expert feature in more detail, writes Dave Renham. Last week, I shared some initial findings connected with 575 British 5f handicap races run in 2024. It would make sense to read that piece first here, if you have already not done so. This week I continue my digging and. as I did last time, sharing my findings as I dig! So, at this juncture, I am unsure whether the findings this week will be as interesting or indeed as positive as that first half.

Recap

To recap quickly, the 5f handicaps I am looking at exclude 2yo handicaps (known as nurseries), but include all other age classifications. Any profit/loss quoted will be calculated to Betfair SP (BSP) less 2% commission on any winners.

As I mentioned last week, the Instant Expert tab can be found on the top of the Geegeez Racecards, between the Profiler and Pace tabs.

Instant Expert provides the Geegeez Gold community with some useful, and quickly digestible, horse information. It has a unique ability to summarise the form profile of every runner in the race into this single view. Instant Expert covers the form of each horse in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of five key areas namely going, class, course, distance, and field size. This can be seen in the screenshot below where I have clicked the tab for the 2.52 at Beverley run on the 23rd April of this year:

 

Screenshot of a Beverly horse racing odds table showing horses, odds, and form data with columns for #, Dr, Name, Odds, R, P, and percentage indicators.

 

The parameters I am using in terms of generating the percentages for each horse in each category are:

2-year placed form (see top left above the grid), all races and all codes (see top right above the grid).

These parameters are the same as I used in last week’s article because clearly the data across both articles needs to be consistent. The display is colour coded to help us see things more clearly at a glance: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

In the above example I have ranked the runners by their scores which are based on The Shortlist scoring system (The ‘Sh’ column). Green percentages score three points, amber percentages score one, grey percentages zero and red percentages minus one. Hence across the five areas a horse can obtain a top score 15 (five greens), whereas the lowest score would be -5 (five reds). Users may change the parameters and dropdowns so, for example, if you prefer to look at 5-year win only form just click the relevant circles. Once this is done, the Shortlist scores will change.

In the illustrated race above I’m Next had the maximum score of 15, while Novello Lad and Ventura Express were joint second on nine, with Trilby ranked fourth scoring seven points. For the record, the result of the race was as follows:

 

Beverley racecard showing horse lineup, trainers and jockeys with weights and odds for the race.

 

The top ranked horse I’m Next went onto win this race, priced at 11/8. Trilby, the fourth ranked runner, was second at 9/2 while one of the joint second ranked runners Novello Lad came third at 10/1. Based on what we found out last week in terms of the performance of the rankings, this type of result will occur much more than say three horses ranked near the bottom coming first, second and third.

A line on ranking methodology

Before getting into the meat and bones of this second piece, let me briefly discuss ranking or rating methods for a few lines. The key to a good set of ratings/rankings is not whether the top-rated/ranked runners make a long-term profit. Of course, that would be an added bonus but, essentially, to measure the effectiveness of a rating set we need to look at the win strike rate and the percentages of rivals beaten (PRBs).

The top-rated/ranked runner should have the highest win percentage, the second highest should win next most often, and so on, gradually reducing for the other runners. Ideally there would be a significant difference in strike rate between say the top-rated with the fourth rated, and likewise with the fourth rated and the tenth rated, and so on. This type of finding would ideally be mirrored in the PRB stats.

It was noted in my first article that the PRBs produced the perfect graph when assessing Instant Expert Shortlist score rankings with the PRBs decreasing from highest ranked to lowest. The win strike rates also showed the right type of pattern although the seventh and eight ranked were marginally out of kilter scoring maybe 1 to 1.5% higher than would be expected. Overall, the rankings had the right 'feel' based on all the stats I uncovered.

Instant Expert Rank #1 by Betfair Starting Price

Having set the scene, coupled with some key recaps, let me start to crunch the numbers once more. Last time, I looked into the combined performance of the top two ranked runners in terms of their Instant Expert (IE) Shortlist scores across different areas. To start with here, I want to focus solely on the top ranked runner starting with...

Instant Expert (IE) top ranked runner by Price

I want to see whether the BSP prices of the top ranked horses make any difference to returns. I have split qualifiers into different price band groupings and here are the splits:

 

Table showing BSP Price Band performance: for each price band, the number of runs, wins, win percentage, BSP P/L and BSP ROI; lower bands show positive results, higher bands show losses (negative BSP P/L and ROI).

 

We would expect higher win rates for shorter priced runners, but it is interesting that the performance of the bigger priced top ranked runners, those BSP 15.0 or bigger, has been very poor. Overall, these qualifiers have managed just three wins from 111 runs (SR 2.7%) for a loss of £57.07 (ROI -51.4%). From this sample, it is clear that top ranked runners based on their Instant Expert Shortlist scores give the best value if priced under BSP 15.0.

Instant Expert (IE) top ranked runner by Price (4yo+ hcaps only)

Last week it was noted that the top two ranked runners combined performed far better when contesting 4yo+ handicaps compared with other race classifications. Therefore, I want to look at the top-ranked runners in 4yo+ handicaps using the same price band analysis. Here are the splits:

 

Table titled 'BSP Price Band' listing six bands with columns Runs, Wins, Win %, BSP P/L, and BSP ROI. Band ranges and values: 1.01 to 5.99 (98, 30, 30.61%, 22.74, 23.2%), 6.0 to 9.99 (65, 8, 12.31%, -3.42, -5.27%), 10.0 to 14.99 (37, 5, 13.51%, 22.52, 60.86%), 15.0 to 24.99 (25, 0, -25%, -25, -100%), 25.0 to 39.99 (9, 0, -9%, -9, -100%), 40.0 or bigger (3, 0, -3%, -3, -100%).

 

There were no wins at all for those priced BSP 15.0 or bigger – 0 from 37 to be precise. The well fancied runners, those under BSP 6.0, produced very solid looking results albeit from a modest sample size of 98 qualifiers. The overall results for horses priced under BSP 15.0 are 43 wins from 200 runs (SR 21.5%) for a profit of £41.83 (ROI +20.9%).

Instant Expert top ranked runner by Age (4yo+ hcaps only)

Sticking with 4yo+ handicaps for a minute, I want to see if the age of the horse has made any difference when it comes to the top ranked runner.

 

Table showing performance by dog age group (4yo–8yo+): runs, wins, win percentage, BSP P/L, and BSP ROI.

 

Based on these findings it does seem that once we get to horses aged seven or older, performance of the top ranked runner tails off notably. This older age group produced just two wins from 41 starts with losses of close to 81p in the £. Yes, it is small sample but comparing the PRBs, five- and six-yrear-olds combined had a PRB of 0.64, while those aged seven and up were significantly lower on 0.54.

Of course, finding value selections is the key to successful betting and looking for positive angles helps us in this regard. However, it is also important to try and find negative angles in order that we can discard (or at least downgrade) certain runners from our shortlisting process. If we can narrow down the field it will implicitly improve our chances of finding value selections. It needs to be said that we can never be 100% confident that discarded selections won’t win, because a handful always will; but if these runners represent very poor value, then in general they are worth discarding. We know we can't back every winner!

In the first article we saw that those ranked ninth and tenth produced significant losses of nearly 46p and 30p in the £ respectively. Combining their two records they delivered just 33 wins from 754 runners (SR 4.4%) for losses of £272.75 (ROI -36.2%).

Instant Expert rank of 9 or lower by Class

Now I appreciate that these runners ranked ninth or lower will only be relevant in races of at least nine runners, but I still want to share a few stats I have found for this group.

A look at these lower ranked runners by Class of Race. Here are the splits:

 

A table comparing lowly rated Instant Expert horses by race classes 2 through 6 with runs, wins, win percentage, starting price profit/loss, and starting price return on investment.

 

As expected, we see losses across the board. However, there is no clear pattern in terms of whether lower ranked runners have struggled more in higher or lower classes. The Class 5 returns are somewhat out of kilter, but a BSP 50.0 winner is responsible for making the ROI% lower than perhaps what it should be. What the stats from different classes do tell us is that these runners struggle when racing in all class levels.

IE rank of 9 or lower by Race Classification

I am now going to split the races by 3yo only, 3yo+ and 4yo+ races to see what effect this has had on these lower ranked horses:

 

Table comparing race classifications by age: 3yo only, 3yo+, and 4yo+. Columns are Runs, Wins, Win%, BSP P/L, and BSP ROI. Shows 3yo only: 112 runs, 4 wins, 3.57% win; 3yo+: 382 runs, 15 wins, 3.93% win; 4yo+: 260 runs, 14 wins, 5.38% win, with BSP P/L and BSP ROI values (red, negative) in the last two columns.

 

We see a lower strike rate in both the 3yo only and the 3yo+ group. These two also endured substantial losses to BSP. The 4yo+ group produced the best strike rate and almost broke even. However, all is not what it seems, as two of the 4yo+ winners were priced at BSP 50.0. Taking those two out and losses for the remaining 258 qualifiers would have been substantial, equating to around 38 pence in the £.

Digging a bit deeper, here are the numbers when we restrict all nine and lower ranked runners to those that were priced under BSP 15.0.

 

Race Classification table: 3 groups—3yo only, 3yo+, and 4yo+—with Runs, Wins, Win %, BSP P/L, and BSP ROI. 3yo only: 32 runs, 3 wins, 9.38% win rate, BSP P/L negative, BSP ROI negative. 3yo+: 120 runs, 11 wins, 9.17% win rate, BSP P/L -23.07, BSP ROI -19.23. 4yo+: 91 runs, 7 wins, 7.69% win rate, BSP P/L -30.22, BSP ROI -33.21.

 

So even as we move towards the more fancied end of the betting market losses remained steep, although the 3yo only data set is small.

One final stat I wish to share before moving on is the performance of these lower ranked runners (9+) when aged three. If we look at all 3yo qualifiers that had a BSP of 10.0 or bigger, just one of these runners won from 192 qualifiers. Losses were £166.50 (ROI -86.7%).

 

Individual Instant Expert Shortlist scores by PRB

Having looked at a plethora of Instant Expert Shortlist ranking stats across both articles, let's now consider the performance of individual scores. As noted earlier, these scores range from the highest, 15, to the lowest, -5. I am going to examine PRBs first and, in order for them to fit within the graph, I have combined next door positions. Hence the highest two possible scores have been combined (15 and 13), followed by the next two (12 and 11), all the way down to the two lowest scores of -4 and -5. Remember, it's not possible to achieve a Shortlist score of 14.

 

Bar chart showing Instant Expert Shortlist PRB scores for UK Racing 2024 5f handicaps (paired ranks). Highest score 0.60 for 15 & 13, decreasing to 0.40 for -4 & -5.

 

We see a very similar graph to the one I published in the first article which I referenced earlier – the one that examined the PRBs for different ranked runners. The higher ranked runners had higher PRBs, and we see the same pattern here. The very lowest scores have commensurately low PRBs so, on this evidence at least, horses with a score of minus two or less can generally be safely ignored. Even those scoring 0 or -1 have a note of caution about them with a PRB of just 0.45. For the record, the top score of 15 produced the highest PRB, at 0.62, with a score 13 achieving a PRB of 0.58, while 11 and 12 both scored 0.56, and 9 and 10 both hit 0.55: that's very pleasing linearity indeed.

 

 

Instant Expert individual scores 

Let me now share the strike rates, profit/loss, and ROI percentages for each individual Instant Expert (IE) Shortlist Score.

 

Table of performance metrics by score level from 15 to -5: runs, wins, win% and BSP P/L plus BSP ROI; positives shown in green, negatives in red.

 

Some of the sample sizes are relatively small such as for the scores of 10 or 12, which is one of three reasons why we cannot necessarily be seduced by bottom lines for these individual scores. The second reason is that some individual scores will have been skewed somewhat by a big priced winner or two. One such example is a BSP 80.0 winner for the -5 group. If we weed that winner out and examine the other 237 runners which scored -5, the ROI% drops to -35% and correlating far better with all the other horses whose Shortlist score was a negative value. The third reason is that a score of 1 or 2, or indeed even smaller, could actually be the highest Shortlist score in the race. One such example of this can be found from a Yarmouth race in July 2024 which is shown below:

 

Yarmouth 18:10 Handicap form: table of runners with horse, trainer, age, weight, jockey, and race details.

 

Merrimack was top ranked with a Shortlist score of just 2. For the record, he went on to win the race.

When looking at the strike rates for individual Shortlist scores there was not perfect correlation in terms of the strike rates always dropping as the scores decreased. However, when looking more generally the right strike rate pattern emerged and this can be seen to best effect when we group the highest IE scores together (11, 12, 13 and 15) and compare them to the lowest (-1, -2, -3, -4, -5).

 

Table of performance by shortlist score range: 11–15 → 577 runs, 96 wins, 16.64% win rate, BSP P/L -27.88, BSP ROI -4.83; -1 to -5 → 1,203 runs, 79 wins, 6.57% win rate, BSP P/L -314.85, BSP ROI -26.17.

 

Grouping like this does help to create more robust sample sizes and also smooths the data. This is further evidence of the potential effectiveness of Instant Expert, although I appreciate I have only looked at 575 UK handicap races, all run over 5f and from a single year, 2024. However, for this sample the correlation between ranking results and individual scores is primarily positive and makes me more hopeful that other result sets will produce similar results.

Instant Expert individual scores (4yo+ hcaps only)

It makes sense next to look at the 4yo+ handicap only data as these races to date have shown the most positive findings. Due to modest sample sizes, I have grouped the individual Instant Expert (IE) Shortlist scores into bands:

 

 

More positive correlation with both win rates and returns. This is replicated once more when we compare the PRBs:

 

Bar chart of PRB by Instant Expert Shortlist score bands: 11–15 = 0.59, 5–10 = 0.54, 0–4 = 0.48, −5 to −1 = 0.41.

 

For the record, horses scoring between 11 and 15 in 3yo only and 3yo+ handicaps had a lower PRB of 0.56. As with my first Instant Expert research offering, it seems 4yo+ handicaps see the Instant Expert at its most effective, when there is generally more data available from which to populate the scores and colour codings that the view thrives on.

 

**

Summary

In this article horses with negative IE Shortlist scores have performed very poorly across the board and are horses I believe we should be ignoring nine times out of ten. This type of performance is similar to what we noted with horses ranked ninth or lower in the first article. The same pattern is occurring – the higher ranked runners have totally outperformed lower ranked runners; higher individual Shortlist scores have outperformed lower scores.

Clearly, these two articles have only scratched the surface as far as the Geegeez Instant Expert is concerned. However, the early findings have shown that this tool has real potential to help pinpoint runners which should offer good value and others which likely represent poor value. Making money over the longer term when betting is about finding value. If we can do this regularly enough, we will come out in front. And, crucially, using tools like Instant Expert means we'll have fun in the process!

The Instant Expert tab is something I always look at when analysing races for potential betting opportunities and, I hope via these two articles, I have converted more Gold members to do likewise.

Until next time...

- DR

Monday Musings: A Laurel Crown

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York was fun, thanks again Jim and Mary, writes Tony Stafford. I did offer something in return for their amazing hospitality. Believing the expansive knowledge and judgment of friend and Ray Tooth sidekick Steve Gilbey, I guided my hosts to Thompsons Famous (yes that’s what they call themselves) Fish and Chip restaurant around ten miles along the A64 Malton Road.

Steve was right. Next time you are anywhere near, see if I am. No doubt all the Malton trainers know about it. Then on Friday, forsaking the pleasures of day three on the Knavesmire, it was down to London (at a snail’s pace thanks to traffic on the A1) for Ray’s annual birthday bash in the Mandarin Kitchen in Queensway.

Every time we go there – I think we were ten- or eleven-handed – it seems to get better. Probably eighty per cent of the tables are peopled by Chinese: that’s always the give-away. But enough of the food editorial. What about the racing? I’ll get back to the Dante meeting later.

On Sunday morning I watched the rerun of the Preakness Stakes, second leg of the American Triple Crown. I would happily have made the mistake of assuming it was staged in its usual (since 1873) spot at Pimlico racecourse, Maryland, but no, it was at another once-famous track in that state, Laurel Park, Pimlico temporarily closed for a $250 million makeover.

 

 

In the far-off distant days before I wrote for a living – is it a living? – I was always entranced at the end of each year when the best riders and horses from Europe made their pioneering trip across the Atlantic. Their target, the Washington DC Invitational, run at Laurel Park initially over 1m4f from its inception in 1952.

By 1994, the glamour had long evaporated and the race as we knew it was halted for ten years. They tried 1m2f, a more American-friendly distance, after which fewer horses of note were enticed over. The latest incarnation coincided with Laurel’s being consigned to a lesser status in the US rollcall of racetracks.

I was oblivious to the first two runnings, but the ill-fated Manny Mercer won that initial 1952 instalment. Joe’s brother wasn’t far off the awful fatal fall before the start of a race at Ascot which halted his probably championship-winning career. Manny’s daughter, Caroline, an infant at the time, married Pat Eddery and they were together for many years until after Pat’s retirement.

The next winner was a jockey riding at the end of his career, Charlie Smirke. Charlie was famed for his comment after winning the 1952 Derby: “What did I Tulyar?”, surely a fitting epitaph. The year after his Derby triumph he rode future top stallion Worden, for French handler Georges Bridgeland. Smirke was 47 and rode on for six more years after a career that began as a 14-year-old in 1920.

Of all the “invaders”, or more accurately “invitees”, surely the greatest of them was 1968 Derby winner, the Vincent O’Brien-trained Sir Ivor, the first of three victors in the race for Lester Piggott and the most spectacular of his Epsom nine. That was in 1968, his Derby year, at the time when many Americans ridiculed Lester’s riding style. He followed that with Karabas (Bernard van Cutsem) the next year. In 1980 he rode Argument for Maurice Zilber, an Egyptian who trained with great success in France, notably for Nelson Bunker Hunt, whose empire crashed when he tried to control the world’s silver market.

Of the home team in that glorious era, names such as evergreen Kelso in 1964 and before that dual winner Bald Eagle stand out. Among the fillies to have won it, the French-trained trio Dahlia (Zilber, Bunker Hunt), April Run and All Along were at the top of their respective generations. All Along was one of Walter Swinburn’s earlier international winners in his meteoric career.

Saturday’s Preakness harked back to the 1960’s TV show – four series 1964 to 1968 – The Man From U.N.C.L.E. I know I’m being pedantic with the full stops, but the Editor will be impressed that I can be when necessary. [Indeed I am! – Ed.]

In that show, Robert Vaughn played Napoleon Solo, and British actor David McCallum the Russian Ilya Kuryakin, as the pair toiled, largely successfully, to put the world to rights. How we could do with them at this time of ridiculous instability domestically and internationally!

Napoleon Solo also happens to be the name of Saturday’s winner, by just over a length. He didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby, while the first two in that initial Triple Crown race sidestepped Laurel. So, no Triple Crown winner again this year.

While American Pharoah and Justify have achieved that feat in recent times, the nearest miss during the post-Affirmed 1968 (Steve Cauthen) period was the Thoroughbred Corporation pair of Prince Ahmed bin Salman.

In 2001, the Corporation’s Point Given flopped in the Derby, but rallied to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, surprising many that he would stay the tough 1m4f around the biggest dirt circuit in North America. The following year, the shrewdly bought Arkansas Derby winner War Emblem made it four Triple Crown races in a row for the green and white stripes.

War Emblem, a 20/1 shot, made all to win the Derby – I was in the entourage cheering him on at Churchill Downs! – and the Preakness. Sadly, he didn’t get the trip in New York, so no Triple Crown. Even more sadly, Prince Ahmed died later that summer.

*

We saw some nice performances at York, notably and fittingly from two three-year-olds sporting the Juddmonte colours on a track where the farm’s founder, the late Khalid Abdullah, enjoyed so much success.

On Wednesday in the Musidora, Legacy Link was a gritty winner, rallying under Colin Keane to stave off Ed Walker’s previously unbeaten filly Felicitas. The following day, the Dante was a much more clear-cut win for Item from a couple of Coolmore/O’Brien “sighters” for the Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy combination.

Both the filly and colt are by Frankel, Juddmonte’s own homebred stallion and the world’s best horse of all time, most people believe. Each is a 5/1 chance to intrude on what might otherwise be a Ballydoyle Epsom hegemony. Benvenuto Cellini remains a firm 5/2 shot to make it 12 Derby successes for Aidan after his fluent performance at Chester.

To say Brian Meehan has made a slow start to the season is an understatement, but the Manton-based handler struck in the Listed Childwickbury Fillies’ Listed Trial at Newbury, his Esna comfortably holding off Sacred Ground, thus turning around form from the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket two weeks earlier.

Sam Sangster signed the ticket on the daughter of first-season sire Starman at 50k. While this half-sister to five winners might on that basis be an unlikely candidate for a 1m4f Classic, her siblings generally take more after their maternal grandsire, the peerless Galileo, sire of Frankel. In any, she's reportedly aiming at the Prix de Diane.

Meehan was also involved in the story of an owner who was introduced to me by a mutual friend. Lew Day, who had been an owner with Eric Wheeler for many years, was intending to upgrade his racing experience. Around Royal Ascot time in 2013, we met and he said he would like to buy a nice two-year-old. Anything any good, I reasoned privately, would be unbuyable at that stage, but I had seen a possible candidate in my regular Thursday jaunts to gallops morning at Manton where Ray Tooth had a few horses in training.

By this time Brian had still not sold one youngster, and I asked if it was for sale, as he had impressed me in his work. He was, and I suggested him to Lew. He balked at the price, but on St Leger Day, while I was up with a few friends representing Raymond as his Great Hall ran (unplaced) in the St Leger, said Spark Plug was making his debut at Bath.

I was busy in the pre-parade ring - I remember chatting to John Magnier who won the race with Aidan’s Leading Light. I hadn’t noticed my pals, brothers Kevin and Steve Howard, had sloped off without telling me and backed him – and he won at 12/1! That’s what friends are for it appears.

Lew got straight on the phone to Brian on the Monday and secured the colt, “at a higher price”, says Lew. Still, six wins, 11 places and a stonking victory as a five-year-old in the Cambridgeshire wasn’t a bad return on that investment.

Then Sam bought a nice youngster for 35k and the future Raheen House (named for Lew’s hotel in Ireland – no he’s a Londoner, not Irish) became a Group 3 winner for Brian, before a late switch to William Haggas. That involved the sale of a half-share to Australian interests. “I’d kept a half and there might have been 100 owners sharing the other bit,” recalls Lew. “He did win once over there, but I don’t think he took to racing in Australia. He’s now enjoying his retirement with a nice lady in Queensland”.

We lost contact probably five years ago and then on Friday morning, I noticed his name as the owner of a filly called Rossa Raheen, running in a handicap at Newbury. I speak regularly to Ollie Sangster, also based at Manton, who trains her and he reckoned she had an each-way chance, second time out for him.

I checked to see if I still had Lew’s number. I did and called. He was hopeful, so I napped Rossa Raheen that day and she flew home after a troubled run to finish a neck second – at 22/1! We won’t get anything like that next time I’m afraid, Lew, but it won’t get beat either.

In the intervening period, Lew has gone more seriously into breeding, concentrating at the upper end with such stallions as Kingman and Sea The Stars on one or other side of his three mares’ pedigrees. His covering stallions for the three this year are Baaeed (two) and St Mark’s Basilica, already responsible for one Classic winner from his first crop. Now with a total of ten horses, he retains all the enthusiasm he had when we first met, and I aim to keep in touch. You can’t forget your mates, even if at my age you forget who they are!

  • TS

 

Parish Notices, May 2026

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It's Dante day, and I'm on the iron horse headed north to the Knavesmire. While I've a moment I wanted to share a few notices about various things, some of them even related to horse racing...

HBF Survey

As longer suffering readers will know, I used to be Chair of the Horseracing Bettors Forum, a group of racing punters trying to lobby for the interests of all punters. It's a pretty thankless task, I can tell you, often because we - they - don't really know exactly what's vexing other bettors.

Well, with that in mind, HBF has released its one question survey, which asks respondents to order some items from most to least important. On the basis of the replies they get, that will inform their agenda for the coming year.

It will take you literally a minute or so to respond, please do if you want to contribute to the direction of travel for HBF.

Here's the link to the one minute HBF survey (and thanks) >>

 

Footy bet hedge

Again, those who have been around a while know that each July/August I offer my thoughts on the upcoming footy season with a little multiple bet. They're the proverbial curate's egg - good in places - and are shared as a footy/betting fan rather than any kind of expert.

Anyway, this season's play has done OK - here's the original post - and last night PSG sealed the French title while Stockport County booked their place at Wembley. To the stakes I played, that's £168.92 of £240 returned, with three tickets still live on County.

The current cash out offer is £391 or so, which will go up or down a little depending on whether Bolton finish the job away at Bradford.

 

 

If Stockport win the play off final, those three tickets return around £930 - or of you played for £2 stakes, £93. So it's worth thinking about hedging a little. I'm going to take one team out of the equation by waiting for the result of tonight's match, and will then lock in a bit of profit - most likely by backing Stockport's final opponent (though I haven't fully decided yet).

Of course, you may have already elected to cash your tickets for a profit of £320 after stakes are accounted for (or £32 for £2's)... entirely up to you. I'm just wanting to highlight that if you followed me in, we're in a strong position and should be pondering getting a bit of jam...

 

Geegeez

A couple of things on geegeez development. We've moved our development server this past fortnight, and it's not been straightforward. It doesn't affect live operations, but it has slowed down a couple of things I was hoping to have released this week. They're just about ready so with a following wind the first - new sectional results - will land next week.

I'm also conscious that for some users the report suite is slower than you'd like. It's also slower than I'd like. We're looking at a candidate solution for that and will be working up a 'proof of concept' in the coming weeks. If it flies, we'll be making some fairly major changes - all invisible to you, except for the speed uplift - in the background in coming months.

QT 2.0 is almost ready, featuring a raft of new variables across current run, last run and second last run... but I want to freshen the interface as well as upgrade the query options. That pushes the timeline out, too, I'm afraid... but it is happening!

So, there's a lot going on even though it may not appear to be the case. Bear with us for just a little longer.

 

Mindset

Apropos of nothing... actually, it popped up on my x feed because it got auto-posted on our geegeez account on that platform (give us a follow)... I re-watched for the umpteenth time a webinar I recorded a few years ago about 'setting up to succeed'.

I appreciate how narcissistic that probably sounds, but it's actually - and quite surprisingly, to my ear/eye at least - full of good sense that I value being reminded of twice every three years or so. If you've not seen it, or even if you have, it's one of the best things I've done and you can (re-)view it below if you'd like.

 

French Open tennis

And finally, or enfin if you prefer (you probably don't), the French Open tennis - the second Grand Slam of the season - gets underway on Monday at Roland Garros in Paris. There will be no Carlos Alcaraz, injured, so it's a reasonable opportunity for Novak to chase that elusive record-breaking Slam title. Alas, Sinner is currently in imperious form... Meanwhile, the women's draw looks more open, but the slower surface makes all matches more watchable - and more bettable!

One of my other projects is a website called tennisprofits.com, and for the next couple of days there's a special discounted Triple Slam ticket available. It covers the hottest four months of the calendar, taking in the clay in Paris, the grass is London and the hard blue courts in New York - and everything alongside and in between.

Four months' access for the price of three... and we're close to releasing a system builder there, too, which I think is just about the first of its kind. I made a little video which you can watch here if that sort of thing interests you, or might do.

TennisProfits.com is a very cool site where I get to look after the tech side and leave Paul Shires, our resident full-time pro trader, to be the subject matter expert. Dave Renham also chips in with some typically thought-provoking articles on his other wagering love. Oh, the link for the Triple Slam ticket is here.

 

That's all, we're done...

Right, back to trying to find a winner at York. Low was strongly favoured in the sprints yesterday, but my guess is they'll over-water to compensate. I'll be having a close look at how Persian Spring goes, drawn 10 and likely getting a late late show steer from Jamie Spencer, before deciding whether to play low in the two ensuing five furlong dashes. On the front is normally the way over the minimum here... but high or low remains to be seen.

Good luck,

Matt

Monday Musings: Ryan’s Choice

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And now the thinking starts, writes Tony Stafford. Ryan Moore has won two of the last nine editions of the Derby at Epsom for the Aidan O’Brien/Coolmore juggernaut, on Auguste Rodin in 2023 and City Of Troy the following year.

O’Brien has won six of the last nine. That means Ryan missed out on Wings Of Eagles (Padraig Beggy) in 2017; Anthony Van Dyck (Seamus Heffernan), two years later; Serpentine in a deserted Epsom in Covid year 2020 (Emmet McNamara) and Lambourn (Wayne Lordan) last year.

If you think one in three is bad luck, imagine Ryan’s conundrum this time around. Ballydoyle has the first five in the betting (or did before Pierre Bonnard’s defeat at Leopardstown yesterday) as O’Brien aims to make it 12 wins in the race, extending his own record. As previous history shows, he can win with any of them.

Victory for the stable will inevitably extend Michael Tabor and Sue Magnier’s tally to an eye-boggling 13 -   Pour Moi won it for them from the Andre Fabre yard in 2011. Long-time associate Derrick Smith came on board after the initial two victories for the stable, first for legendary stallion Galileo (2001), and High Chaparral the following year.

The two winners that Ryan did ride in that period (he also has two more earlier) both have their first foals on the ground this year, so there’s a chance some might be seen at the foal sales in the autumn. It’s likely though that many will be retained for racing. Those that do come on the market will be almost as eagerly sought as the initial progeny of Frankel following his unblemished racing career which gave such credit to Galileo, his sire.

Of the other quartet, Wings Of Eagles was a 40/1 shot when winning his Derby and then broke down within sight of the winning post at The Curragh, never to race again. He’s standing for €4k at one of Coolmore’s NH stud farms and is already getting some nice jumpers to his name.

Anthony Van Dyck was fatally injured during the running of the 2020 Melbourne Cup, won by Aidan O’Brien’s son Joseph with Australian-owned seven-year-old Twilight Payment.

Serpentine’s story deserves re-telling. In the Derby he was one of six O’Brien runners, the most fancied being Moore’s mount, Mogul. He was never to get into the race, like many others, while McNamara immediately sent Serpentine to the lead. He was a dozen lengths clear of the field at the three-furlong pole and held on to win unchallenged by five lengths with a strong tailwind blowing him home.

McNamara, who didn’t record a single race ride in his native Ireland that year, was immediately replaced on the horse, Christophe Soumillon taking over as Mogul and Moore gained their revenge in the Grand Prix de Paris that September. Mogul, a 3.4 million guinea yearling, won two more big races later that year. Coolmore originally stood him as a NH stallion. Now, along with fellow former O’Brien trainee Capri, he remains in Coolmore ownership, both horses having relocated to Wood Hall Stud in Shropshire, fee £2,500.

Serpentine, having collected the Derby on only his fourth race following a wide margin maiden victory at the third time of asking, never approached those heights in his career for Aidan, even trying 2m4f for the Gold Cup at Ascot the following season.

In all, Serpentine, who was gelded and then sent to Australia, has now raced 31 times and managed only one more success – over 1m2f. His latest effort on New Year’s Day 2026 was in a Group 2 handicap in which he finished 14th of 15! I doubt we’ll see much more of the nine-year-old, but in Australia anything goes.

Lambourn might have been demonstrating something of a Serpentine manoeuvre last year when making all while Ryan on favourite Delacroix got stuck in traffic some way behind and finished only ninth. That Delacroix could return to the track as soon as the Coral-Eclipse a month later and beat Ombudsman revealed his true merit. He stands at €40k at Coolmore.

Lambourn’s successful return in the ten-furlong Huxley Stakes at Chester last week confirmed him as more than just a one-pacer. It took plenty of pluck to hold off Bay City Roller but whether he’ll beat stablemate Jan Bruegel, not to mention Calandagan, in the £1 million Coolmore Coronation Cup at Epsom next month is another matter.

Until Isaac Newton showed his limitations in the Lingfield Derby Trial, won by William Haggas’s Maltese Cross narrowly from Ralph Beckett’s Bay Of Brilliance, O’Brien had mopped up all the colts’ – and for that matter fillies’ – Epsom trials.

As a result we have Benvenuto Cellini as 5/2 favourite after sluicing home in the Chester Vase; Constitution River next at 5/1 after winning a no-contest Dee Stakes following a long layoff; while Christmas Day, due to run in the Dante on Thursday at York, is a 12/1 shot along with Futurity winner Hawk Mountain, who reappeared with a smooth win at Longchamp in the Prix de Guiche a week yesterday.

In between we had Pierre Bonnard, smart last year but behind Christmas Day when they both returned to action last month. His effort in the five-runner trial at Leopardstown yesterday when beaten in a tight finish by son Joseph’s James J Braddock would seem to have diminished this one-time strong candidate’s chance on June 6.

And it doesn’t necessarily end there. After Aidan’s big five, there were another 11 still in the Betfred-sponsored Classic at the latest stage, from 37 entered all told. There’s still time for a Wings Of Eagles to emerge, although he did win the Dee Stakes, or a Serpentine to come from nowhere.

It won’t be an easy choice for Ryan – let’s hope the best jockey of his time gets it right. He certainly has come back from last year’s long spell on the sidelines with renewed vigour and possibly his best-ever standard, and that’s saying a lot!

Among the fillies, Amelia Earhart (5/2) supplanted the Gosdens’ I’m The One (5/1) as Oaks favourite with a comfortable success over that rival in the Cheshire Oaks, and it’s big odds bar the pair with the exception of Diamond Necklace, more likely heading back to Paris for the Prix de Diane. That Chester race felt beforehand like a re-match between the two big Oaks contending stables on a par with when Enable (John Gosden) easily beat O’Brien’s very smart filly Alluringly in the Vase before trouncing Rhododendron, Auguste Rodin’s mother, by five lengths at Epsom on her way to glory.

Over at Longchamp yesterday, under awful weather conditions and rapidly deteriorating going, the O’Brien team were expecting more success in the two French mile Classics. In the Poulains, for colts, late switch Puerto Rico, who was initially regarded as Coolmore’s 2,000 Guineas choice instead leaving that race to its runner-up Gstaad, started the 11/10 favourite. Disappointingly, he could finish only fourth behind the Francis-Henri Graffard, Mickael Barzalona, Aga Khan Studs horse Rayif.

The winner, drawn ideally on the inside, raced just behind the sole UK runner, Karl Burke’s Hankelow, then quickened off the last slight bend and won smoothly from a challenging pack. They were led home by the Andre Fabre/Godolphin runner Komorebi and William Buick, who finished strongly to pip Hankelow for second. Puerto Rico was a one-paced fourth and stablemate Dorset sixth.

In the fillies race, the Pouliches, O’Brien had the favourite in Diamond Necklace. Unbeaten in three starts at two, including in the Marcel Boussac on Arc Day, she and Ryan followed the Barzalona route up the inside and strode away majestically for an extremely easy success.

A filly from the first crop of the very smart St Mark’s Basilica, Diamond Necklace has the look of a potential champion. She was not inconvenienced by the soft ground and already it’s shaping up as a battle between her and 1,000 Guineas winner True Love, not to mention Precise, as to which is the best and where they might all be going next time out.

This was surprisingly only a second win for O’Brien in the race after Rose Gypsy as long ago as 2001, when she was a contemporary of Galileo. A lot of water has flown under Coolmore’s bridge since then.

**

Just one oddity from Saturday’s racing. When William Knight’s homebred five-year-old mare Royal Velvet made a successful step up to Pattern racing with a smooth success in the Group 3 Chartwell Stakes at Lingfield, that was her ninth win from only 21 starts. Of her 12 defeats, none has been in second place and she has recorded only one third placing.

That shows as she has gone from a rating of 69 to 99, when a race gets serious there is usually only one winner. Congratulations to Suzie Hartley, her owner, recently the subject of open-heart surgery but there to see her pride and joy give her a recuperative boost. It won’t be the last time either. Ascot here they come!

- TS

A First Look Under the Instant Expert Bonnet

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An initial investigation into Geegeez Instant Expert

I wonder how many people who read my weekly articles here are Geegeez Gold members? If you are, I think you're going to like this one... and if not, maybe it will give a gentle nudge to try things out, writes Dave Renham.

Introduction

One of the many benefits of being a Gold member are the daily racecards. These give far more ‘bang for our buck’ compared with other racing sites. Below is a screenshot of the racecard for a contest at Wolverhampton on Tuesday 5th May of this year:

 

Wolverhampton race card: table of horses with form, age, weight, trainer, jockey and current odds for 05-May-2026.

 

As we can see, there is the usual type of information we would see on most racecards such as the draw, recent form figures, name of the horse, age of the horse, weight carried, the trainer, jockey and official rating. However, we also get to have the Racing Post Rating (RPR) for each horse, the Racing Post Topspeed figure (TS), and Peter May’s excellent ratings (SR).

These extras are just the start, as if we cast our eyes to the top of the Racecard we can see some tabs: Full Form, Profiler, Instant Expert, Pace, Draw, Trends and Odds. Clicking on these tabs presents a wealth of further information and data in order to assist with our race analysis. There are also some icons just below these tabs (between the word ‘Horse’ and ‘Age’) with breeding data, jockey and trainer form etc, etc. So, to coin a phrase, these racecards are literally gold!

In this article I want to focus on the Instant Expert tab in a little more detail. This tab is exclusive to Geegeez, and the tab lets us see a variety of key data for horses as shown below using the same race as above:

 

Race card table showing horses with odds and running positions for May 5, 2016 race.

 

Instant Expert gives us punters key horse information. It has a unique ability to summarise the form profile of every runner in the race into a single easily digestible view. It covers the form of each horse in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of five key areas namely going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating for each horse with their last winning official rating. The display is colour coded to help see things more clearly at a glance: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures. It should be noted that the past data is taken from UK and Irish racing only so will not include overseas form.

Users have the ability to change parameters easily. In the above example I am using placed form over two years. This is my favoured combination, but at the touch of a button we can change this to one or five years, or even look beyond that for older horses using the ‘All’ tab. We can look at win data only if preferred over any of the four-time frame options. Also, we can expand individual areas if required; so for example when I look at All Weather races, after looking at the stats for the specific going, I will click the going tab, so it includes both standard going and standard to slow to give me extra data. Clearly, we can do the same with all other variables should we wish and I will often do this for longer distances on the distance dropdown. For example, if a National Hunt race is being run over 2 miles 1 furlong, I will expand a little by including past results from any race from 2 miles to 2 miles 2 furlongs.

In addition to drilling into each horse within the five key areas, we are able to look at sires, trainers and jockeys within those areas too should we wish. Sire data is particularly useful for 2yo races for example, when the majority of runners have little or no past form to speak of. Trainer data is something most punters like to look at, and I will always look at the trainer data when analysing any race. This Instant Expert tool is exceptionally useful, and we can crunch so much data within a matter of a few seconds.

In the last few months there has been a new addition to the Instant Expert template, namely a new column with scores based on The Shortlist scoring system. Green percentages score three points, one point for amber, none for grey, and minus one for red. Hence across the five areas horses can obtain a top score of 15 (five greens) and the lowest score is -5 (five reds). The scores update when you change the variables and dropdowns above the main data grid. In the screenshot I shared above, the Shortlist column has the heading ‘Sh’ and is highlighted in the green box.

In this race, we can see Kento had the highest Shortlist score of 11, whereas Tomarlo had the lowest figure of -3.

Having set the scene, I am now going to share some research I have undertaken connected with these Shortlist scores. I have used a data set that I used for run style / pace articles a year ago, in May 2025.  I will be looking at 5f handicap data from the whole of 2024 with the exception of 2yo handicaps, or nurseries, due to limited past horse form.

This sample covers 575 races and over 5000 horses with their individual Instant Expert Shortlist totals. This, therefore, is a reasonable sized sample, and I must say that adding over 5000 Shortlist scores to my Excel sheet was not the quickest process! [We're very grateful! - Ed.]

After all the leg work to input these individual scores, I hoped that I would find something worth sharing! Let’s see…

I am going to write this research up while crunching the numbers so, at this point, I do not know which way this will go. Normally, I do all the research, then crunch the numbers and then write it up. Therefore, it will read more in the present tense than usual.

So, to recap, the highest possible Shortlist score is 15 and the lowest -5 so one area I plan to look into will be the performance of different individual Shortlist scores. I guess the hope is that the higher scores, 12, 13 and 15, (14 is not a score that can be achieved), would certainly win more often and hopefully prove better value, than the lowest scores such as negative values of -1 to -5. However, there is a slight caveat to this because there will be plenty of races that are contested by horses with modest or poor long-term records and hence a Shortlist score of 3 or 4 could in fact be the highest Shortlist score in the race; so I will also need to rank the Shortlist scores in each race. One would hope and indeed expect that the higher ranked positions would win more often than the lower ranked ones and, assuming that is the case, does that lead to a difference in returns?

In terms of these ranked positions, there will be some horses in most races who have the same Shortlist score and therefore they will be treated as ‘joints’. In other words, if we have a five-runner race and the Shortlist scores are 13, 11, 8, 8 and 0 then the horses scoring ‘8’ with be ranked both ranked third, there will be no fourth ranked horse, with the horse with ‘0’ being ranked fifth. Fairly obviously I hope the 13 score would be ranked one or top, with the ‘11’ second.

In this article I will start by looking at the results with no price cap as I just want to examine the raw data first. Obviously, the odd big priced winner could skew the bottom lines, but I will mention it when that happens. I will probably use a price cap at various junctures, I’m just not sure exactly when as yet.

Instant Expert Shortlist (Sh) – Performance by Rank

My starting point is to look at the ranked positions of the Shortlist scores across all the handicap races in my sample. I began by comparing their win percentages / win strike rate. The graph below shows the breakdown:

 

Bar chart of Instant Expert Shortlist win SR% by rank: rank 1 at 17.4%, down to 4.3% for 10+.

 

The hope was that we would see the usual sliding scale from left to right as we normally do when we look at any type of ‘ranking’. Generally, that has been the case here, although those ranked seven and eight are slightly out of kilter. I think because there were a good number of ‘joint’ positions we should expect slightly more overlap than normal. The good news though is when we look at either end of the graph we see the top ranked runners winning the most often and those ninth or worse winning the least. Not only that but the top ranked have by far the best win rate and likewise those ninth or lower have by far the worst.

To build the picture further I want to look at the PRBs (Percentage of Rivals) for each rank. This metric essentially creates much bigger sample sizes as the figures are affected by all the runners in every race. Hence, I am hoping this graph will have the near perfect left to right sliding scale:

 

Bar chart of Instant Expert Shortlist PRB rankings for UK Racing 2024 5f handicaps; ranks 1–10+ with PRB values from 0.58 to 0.44.

 

0.58 is a strong PRB for the top ranked and we essentially see our ‘normal’ type of graph when analysing the performance of ratings or in this case rankings.

So, how does all this equate then into profit and loss returns? As I tend to do in all my pieces, I will use Betfair SP (BSP) less 2% commission on any winning bets for these calculations. Here are the splits:

 

Performance table by rank showing Runs, Wins, Win% and BSP P/L, BSP ROI for ranks 1 through 10+.

 

As far as I am concerned, it makes excellent reading if focusing solely on either end of the table. The top ranked runners have by far the best win strike rate, while the top two ranked runners combined have seen very small losses overall. Meanwhile those ranked ninth and tenth have produced significant losses of nearly 46p and 30p in the £ respectively. These definitely look to be horses to avoid.

However, we can see that those horses ranked seventh and eighth both made decent overall profits. At first glance this is not ideal as I would have preferred to see any profitable figures at, or near the top of, the table. However, both of their profit figures have been skewed by one big priced winner in each case. A horse called Rainyniteingeorgia won at Lingfield on 22nd December 2024 at the odds of 127.21 when ranked seventh. Take that winner out, and the remaining 427 horses ranked in seventh place would have made an overall loss. In terms of the eighth ranked winners Big Nut won at Musselburgh in August ‘24 at odds of 80.0 which wipes out a huge chunk of the eighth ranked runners’ profits.

Instant Expert Shortlist (Sh) – top two ranked runners

I want now to dig into the top two ranked runners in a bit more detail as when combined together they have not been that far from breaking even (losses of just under 2.5 pence in the £). With these combined results I am going to see if they have performed better or worse within different areas. To begin with, I am going to look at Class of Race. Here are the splits for each Class level combining the results of the top two ranked runners:

 

Table of six horse-race classes (Class 2–Class 6) with Runs, Wins, Win% and BSP P/L and BSP ROI. Class 6 has the highest activity (534 runs, 93 wins, 17.42% win rate) and a positive BSP ROI (0.28) with BSP P/L 1.51; other classes show fewer runs, lower win rates, and negative ROI trends.

 

The figures do not fluctuate massively. Lower win rates in Class 2 and 3 races is what I would expect as these races tend not only to be very competitive but have bigger fields. Bigger fields mean lower win percentages. Also, the data sets for both of these class brackets are relatively small. Returns are similar across the different classes, although in Class 4 races the losses were a tad above the rest.

How about if we split the top two ranked runners by the Race Age Classification? There are three main types being 3yo only races, 3yo+ (races for horses 3 years old and older), and 4yo+ (4 years old and older races). There was one 6yo+ race in the sample which is obviously too small to worry about!

Before digging into the stats for each I am hoping to find slightly better results for the more exposed runners, namely the 4yo+ races. I am also expecting that the 3yo+ races would be the least predictable with less exposed 3yos running against more exposed rivals. However, I have been known to be wrong before! Right, let's see how the top two ranked runners have fared across the three different age classification types:

 

Table of age classifications with performance metrics: Runs, Wins, Win %, BSP P/L, and BSP ROI for 3yo, 3yo+, and 4yo+ groups.

 

The 3yo only results are interesting; definitely better than I would have expected. The results for the 3yo+ and 4yo+ races seem to match my initial hypothesis which is pleasing. There is a significant difference in the strike rates between 4yo+ and 3yo+ races for these top two ranked runners. Also, the 4yo+ results for these runners see very decent returns of close to 16p in the £, compared with losses of over 17p in the £ in 3yo+ races.

However, before we get too carried away, the 4yo+ figures did have a BSP winner of 55.0 which accounts for a decent chunk of the overall profit figure. Therefore, it makes sense to implement a price cap when comparing these 3yo+ and 4yo+ results to avoid bigger priced runners potentially skewing bottom lines. Thus, for the next dataset I will include only horses that were priced under 15.0 BSP. Let's see if this changes things or not. I will build up the tension by first comparing the win and each way (win & placed) percentages for each:

 

Chart comparing win and each-way strike rates for 3yo+ vs 4yo+ races, showing Win SR% 21 (4yo+), 16.8 (3yo+); EW SR% 45 (4yo+), 40.9 (3yo+)

 

We see positive correlation with the 4yo+ top two ranked runners having outperformed their 3yo+ counterparts in both the win percentage and the EW percentage. This also correlates so far with what saw before I introduced a price cap. What about the profit/loss returns? The table below shows the splits and does the 4yo+ group come out on top as before?

 

Table of performance by age: 3yo+ with 518 runs, 87 wins (16.8%), BSP P/L -49.49, ROI -9.55; 4yo+ with 358 runs, 75 wins (20.95%), BSP P/L 55.51, ROI 15.51.

 

They have indeed, and comfortably so. Based on this sample, and I appreciate it is just one sample of races, it seems that the top two rated runners from the Instant Expert Shortlist scores should be considered a strong positive in 4yo+ handicaps.

Sticking with 4yo+ handicaps, how have the top two rated performed when they finished first, second or third LTO? Let’s find out:

 

Table of top-3 positions with columns for Runs, Wins, Win%, BSP P/L, and BSP ROI. Row 1 shows 70 runs, 20 wins (28.57%), BSP P/L 25.4 and corresponding BSP ROI; Row 2 shows 63 runs, 16 wins (25.4%), BSP P/L 12.67 and ROI; Row 3 shows 62 runs, 14 wins (22.58%), BSP P/L 23.72 and ROI value.

 

These figures are very impressive with each one showing a profit. I should add a caveat that each individual LTO position sample is fairly modest. However, to create a bigger sample, if we combine the results to include any horse that finished in the top three LTO we get 50 wins from 195 (SR 25.6%) for a healthy BSP profit of £54.17 (ROI +27.8%). Based on these findings, horses that finished in the first three LTO require close scrutiny if racing next time in a 4yo+ handicap when in the top two of the Instant Expert Shortlist scores.

 

Shortlist Rank Comparison: 3yo+ Handicaps vs 4yo+ Handicaps

Before finishing I want to share the PRBs for all individual Instant Expert Shortlist ranks for both 4yo+ handicaps and 3yo+ handicaps. We have seen already that the top two ranked runners have performed much better in 4yo+ races. How about using a PRB comparison across the board? The chart below gives us a neat graphical comparison:

 

Line chart comparing PRB by Instant Expert shortlist rank for 4yo+ (blue) vs 3yo+ (red); blue generally declines from ~0.59 to ~0.41, red from ~0.57 to ~0.44.

 

This graph perfectly illustrates why, for this sample of races, the ranking of Instant Expert Shortlist scores would have worked better in 4yo+ handicaps compared with their 3yo+ counterparts. The graph highlights the edge to higher ranked runners in 4yo+ handicaps coupled with the fact that the lower ranked runners perform less well when compared to the lower ranked 3yo+ groupings.

It is important to reiterate that what the graph shows is what we should expect from drilling into each horse in terms of their record on the going, in the specific race class, at the course, over the distance, and within a specific field size grouping. Handicappers aged four or older, as a rule, would have raced more often than 3yo handicappers over a full 2-year period. This would be especially true in the first half of the year, as 3yos only have two full years of races once they reach the end of their 3yo year, and that's assuming they started racing early on as juveniles.

More data for each of the five areas should be expected to be more robust and reliable.

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When I started this research, I was heading into the dark somewhat. I assumed I would have enough decent material for an article and, as it turns out, I have plenty more to delve into. And I haven’t even started to look at the individual Shortlist scores from 15 to -5 yet. All in good time!.

Based on my findings so far, the Instant Expert tab is one that is not only unique to Geegeez, but it really might have the potential to almost single-handedly improve our bottom line. That certainly seems the case for the data analysed to date.

Next week I will continue my research and share the rest of my findings.

Until then...

- DR

Making Sense of 3yo Class 2 Turf Handicaps

/in /by

Class 2 turf handicaps for 3yos only – a study

In this article I am going to take an in depth look at three-year-old (3yo) only Class 2 handicaps run on the turf, writes Dave Renham. These are the highest level of handicap, so they tend to be very competitive. We often hear pundits saying something like "this horse could be a Group horse in a handicap", and there will be some of these 3yos which prove them right by going on to tackle Listed and Group level in the future.

The data have been taken from UK flat races (turf only) spanning eight seasons, from 2018 to 2025. The profit/loss figures have been calculated to Betfair SP (BSP) less 2% commission. It should also be noted that 65% of all qualifying races were staged at one of four tracks: Ascot, Goodwood, Newmarket and York. Plenty of top-quality handicaps held at top-quality venues, and we should expect around 35-40 qualifying races from this point in time this season.

Market Factors

Let me kick off by looking at market factors. In the table below I have split the results by BSP:

 

Table showing BSP bands with Runs, Wins, Win % and BSP P/L and ROI, from 1.01–4.5 up to 30.01 and above.

 

Horses at the shorter end of the price range (BSP 4.5 or less) performed well, while there was not a single winner priced above BSP 70.0 which is slightly surprising. The 28.01 to 70.0 group have edged into profit but this often happens if we get two or three more big-priced winners than the norm across a specific time frame.

Based on the earlier evidence, it will probably come as no surprise to hear that favourites have made a blind profit over the past eight seasons. The favourite stats have been thus:

 

Racing stats: 351 runs, 105 wins, win% 29.91, BSP P/L 55.26, BSP ROI 15.74

 

Considering the competitiveness of these races, for favourites to return close to 16p in the £ ‘blind’ has been rather impressive. Favourites also did well at two courses in particular, Ascot and Newmarket, as can be seen in the following table:

 

Table comparing two racing courses: Ascot and Newmarket. Ascot: 72 runs, 24 wins (33.33%), BSP P/L 30.48, BSP ROI 42.33. Newmarket: 85 runs, 26 wins (30.59%), BSP P/L 11.2, BSP ROI 13.17.

 

Favourites also excelled from a small sample at Newbury with nine of the 14 winning (SR 64.3%) for a healthy profit of £23.50 (ROI +167.9%).

In terms of negative stats for favourites, market leaders struggled when racing up in the North or Scotland. In these contests their record reads 28 wins from 113 favs (SR 24.8%) for a loss of £14.67 to £1 level stakes, equating to losses of 13p in the £.

One final set of data for favourites that I will share looks at different distance bands. I have split the races distances into five groups in order to provide better sample sizes. The groups are 5f to 6.5f, 7f to 1m.5f, 1m 1f to 1m 2.5f, 1m 3f to 1m 4.5f and 1m 5f or longer. The BSP ROI percentages for each group have been as follows:

 

Bar chart titled 'UK turf flat racing 2018 to 2025 - 3yo only Class 2 handicaps' showing ROI% by distance bands: 5f–6.5f = 21.0, 7f–1m0.5f = 9.2, 1m1f–1m2.5f = 27.2, 1m3f–1m4.5f = 12.4, 1m5f+ = 13.4 (BSP).

 

All five groups proved profitable during the review period suggesting real consistency across the board when it comes to market leaders.

Having looked at the market, it is time to look into other areas. For the remainder of this piece, I will be using a BSP price cap of 18.0 to avoid any winners especially from the BSP 28.01 to 70.0 bracket potentially skewing individual bottom lines.

 

Sex of horse

Let me share some data now in terms of the sex of the horse running. It should be noted that there are far more male runners contesting these races than females. However, when female runners have competed against their male counterparts, they have struggled somewhat. So, below I have considered only mixed sex races to get a fair comparison between the two. I want to share the A/E indices for each group first – these are based on BSP prices so are the most accurate:

 

Bar chart comparing A/E BSP by sex of runner in mixed-sex turf flat races (2018–2025): Male 1.03, Female 0.82.

 

Males have offered far better value than females in these races and, when we look at the win rates / returns, we see positive correlation with that finding:

 

Table comparing horse performance by sex: Male (839 runs, 117 wins, 13.95% win rate; BSP P/L −51.98; BSP ROI −6.2%) vs Female (133 runs, 13 wins, 9.77% win rate; BSP P/L −38.56; BSP ROI −28.99%).

 

Male runners delivered a better strike rate and in terms of returns would have lost us around 22p in the £ less than females. Female runners have been relatively rare, but they have not been good investments.

It is also worth splitting male horse data to review the performance of colts versus geldings. These results include male only races as well as the mixed sex ones. The splits were thus:

 

Table comparing two male runners with performance stats: Colt: 1084 runs, 159 wins (14.67%); BSP P/L 8.64, BSP ROI 0.8. Gelding: 889 runs, 121 wins (13.61%); BSP P/L -100.12, BSP ROI -11.26.

 

As we can see, colts have comfortably outperformed geldings so that is another useful nugget of information we could potentially utilise in the future in these contests.

 

Weight carried

A look at weight carried now. These splits do not include any jockey claim, so the chart displays the actual weights each horse was allotted for the race. In terms of win rate, we witnessed the following:

 

Bar chart of win SR% by weight carried for 3-year-old Class 2 turf races (2018–2025): 11.8% (7st7lb–8st7lb), 13.4% (8st8lb–8st12lb), 13.5% (8st13lb–9st3lb), 16.0% (9st4lb–9st4lb).

 

This pattern, where horses carrying more weight win more often, tends to be the case in all types of flat handicaps. However, prices are generally well adjusted for this so that there is no clear edge to those horses that win more often. Time to see how the splits pan out here in terms of profit/loss/returns:

 

Table of weight carried bands with performance stats: weight ranges and corresponding runs, wins, win rate, BSP P/L, and BSP ROI (e.g., 7st7lb–8st7lb: 431 runs, 51 wins, 11.83%, -69, -16.01%; 8st8lb–8st12lb: 553 runs, 74 wins, 13.38%, -29.98, 5.42; 9st13lb–9st3lb: 615 runs, 66 wins, 10.83%, -73.57, -11.96; 9st4lb+–9st3lb: 599 runs, 96 wins, 16.03%, -19.33, -3.23.

 

Returns wise, the highest weighted runners only lost a small amount. There has been no clear pattern, although I would be a little wary of backing  lower weighted runners (8st 7lb or less) without a very good reason. It should be noted that if we dropped to 8st 4lb or less this cohort would have lost about 8p in the £ more tipping the scales at a little over 24p in the £.

 

Previous Career wins

Has the number of wins a horse has previously achieved made a difference over the past eight years? Let’s take a look:

 

Table comparing career-win categories (0, 1, 2, or 3+ wins) across Runs, Wins, Win % and BSP P/L and BSP ROI.

 

One or two prior wins seems to have been the optimum. Horses that have won three or more times were very poor value – I guess why this has been the case is because these runners have become more exposed and, therefore, open to less improvement. Indeed, horses that won at least three times and had raced at least six times had an even worse record, winning just 39 times from 340 (SR 11.5%) for losses of £85.07 (ROI -25%).

Considering briefly the number of previous runs in handicaps a horse has had, if we concentrate on runners that had at least six runs previously in handicaps they have scored just 9.6% of the time (21 wins from 219) for losses of £63.54 (ROI -29%).

Again, I am guessing some of these animals were just less open to improvement. Compare this to horses which had previously run just once in a handicap, such types enjoyin a positive record of 77 wins from 511 runners (SR 15.1%) for a profit of £26.54 (ROI +5.2%). These runners were far less exposed, with more scope for improvement, from their current handicap mark.

 

Finishing position LTO

Normally with last time out (LTO) finishing position we see LTO winners following up more often than runners-up, who in turn win more often than LTO thirds, and so on. We tend to see a sloping graph with the bars getting lower, the further down the field the horse finished last time. However, that pattern has not occurred for these races as the graph below shows:

 

Bar chart of win SR% by LTO finishing position in 3yo-only Class 2 handicaps: 1st 15.0%, 2nd 12.8%, 3rd 10.8%, 4th 13.3%, 5th or worse 14.2%.

 

The left-hand side of the graph starts in a familiar fashion, but then we see the bar rising on the right-hand side. Hence it seems that LTO position has not quite been as important as it can be for other types of races. The full splits were as follows:

 

Table of top five standings with Runs, Wins, Win% and BSP P/L and BSP ROI. 1st: 845 runs, 127 wins, 15.03% win; BSP P/L -7.73, BSP ROI -7.73. 2nd: 382 runs, 49 wins, 12.83%; BSP P/L -64.48, BSP ROI -16.88. 3rd: 231 runs, 25 wins, 10.82%; BSP P/L -65.13, BSP ROI -28.19. 4th: 180 runs, 24 wins, 13.33%; BSP P/L -32.35, BSP ROI -17.97. 5th or worse: 557 runs, 79 wins, 14.18%; BSP P/L 98.4, BSP ROI 17.67.

 

The value clearly has been with horses that finished fifth or worse LTO. They produced very strong profit figures as well as a decent win strike rate. These numbers for the 5th or worse cohort can be improved if restricting last time out runs to handicaps only. The figures then read 62 wins from 402 (SR 15.4%) for a profit of £117.08 (ROI +29.1%).

 

Course LTO

A quick look to see if the LTO course data has given us any past positives. Well, there have been four LTO courses that would have produced a profit. These have been:

 

Table comparing course performance: Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, York. Columns show Runs, Wins, Win %, BSP P/L, and BSP ROI.

 

Four of the top tracks in the country which I guess should come as no surprise, three of them representing 75% of the major 3yo Class 2 turf handicap hosts. The LTO York figures have been particularly eye-catching.

 

Trainer Angles

The final area to look at is trainers. Good individual trainer datasets have been hard to come by for most handlers but nine have had at least 50 horses run in these events (with the 18.0 BSP price cap) and their stats are shown in the table below. The trainers have been ordered alphabetically:

 

Table listing trainers with runs, wins, win % and betting metrics BSP P/L and BSP ROI.

 

Charlie Appleby, Andrew Balding, Clive Cox, the Gosden stable and Richard Hannon all performed well and made fair profits. In contrast, Ralph Beckett and Richard Fahey have both struggled, posting significant losses.

Appleby, Balding, the Gosdens and Hannon also fared notably well when  saddling the favourite.

 

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Summary

This piece of research has highlighted plenty of positives as well as negatives in these handicaps. Here is a quick ready reckoner for us:

 

Two-column table titled Positives and Negatives. Positives (six items): 1) Favourites (especially at Ascot, Newbury & Newmarket); 2) Colts; 3) Finished 5th or worse LTO; 4) Course LTO – Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, York; 5) Trainers – Appleby, Balding, Cox, Gosden, Hannon. Negatives (six items): 1) Favourites at Northern or Scottish tracks; 2) Females in mixed-sex races; 3) Weight 8st7lb or less (even more so if 8st4lb or less); 4) There are more previous wins in their career; 5) Trainers – Becket, Fahey; 6) Trainers – Beckett, Fahey.

 

Until next time...

- DR

 

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