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The £5 million mark for Aidan O’Brien in the UK this year has easily been passed, Constitution River and to a lesser extent his third-placed stablemate Hawk Mountain seeing to that in Saturday’s Coral-Eclipse Stakes, writes Tony Stafford.
The Sandown victory made it 12 Group 1 wins in a season already for the stable and most commentators seemed to be calling it a formality that he would exceed his own worldwide season’s best of 28. Just 16 to go – still sounds a lot to me.
Amid the euphoria about Constitution River, fully deserved after the style of his triumph in a race which might not have gone entirely to plan, we need to examine the dearth of home talent either capable of or certainly willing to take on the O’Brien stars this year.
In the Irish Derby, the nearest UK runner behind an O’Brien 1-2-3 was Owen Burrows with the much-fancied Raaheeb in fourth, eight lengths behind the winner Benvenuto Cellini. Richard Hannon was the only other raider from these shores and his Bunyola Bay, after briefly helping make the pace, finished a tailed-off last of eight.
On Saturday, three from home challenged four O’Brien runners, three for Aidan and one for his younger son Donnacha. The market suggested either Saddadd (Roger Varian) or Gethin (Burrows again) would get in amongst them, Gethin even having the services of his owner’s King’s Gambit (Harry Charlton) as the pacemaking counter to Coolmore’s Flushing Meadows. Both are four-year-olds, so where was the home Classic generation?
Gethin had been a close second to Ombudsman last time out while Saddadd had limbered up with a third to Almaqam and Bay City Roller in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh in May.
Both started 4/1, although Gethin had been much shorter earlier in the week. Market confidence in the favourite grew the closer to race time it got and the performance showed that this time the Ballydoyle bush telegraph was in full working order.
Saddadd did show with some promise going to two out until Ryan Moore employed overdrive on the winner and that was that. As with Raaheeb in the Irish Derby, he was eight lengths back at the line. Gethin had already shot his bolt by that time, a brief flirtation with the lead early in the straight quickly evaporating to the extent that he was another seven lengths back in fifth, with only the gasping pacemakers in his wake.
There will be more than enough comment on the winner who, after all, had under Ryan overcome the difficulty of an apparently impossible outside draw to win the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) ahead of Hawk Mountain and another stablemate, Montreal.
The margin between the pair was extended from three-parts of a length to more than three and the argument that he would have won the Derby had he been routed to Epsom rather than Chantilly grows ever more convincing.
Now though it’s the Juddmonte, Irish Champion and our Champion Stakes – stallion-maker events all. As I hinted earlier in the piece, however, there’s another intriguing angle to this story. In a determined second place, just nudging ahead of Hawk Mountain close home, was A Boy Named Susie.
You may wonder why a colt would be given such a name. People of my age group know that the great film actor John Wayne was born Marion. This has a simpler explanation: the colt’s mum was called Soho Susie, a daughter of Montjeu, the great Coolmore stallion and Galileo’s counterpart for so many years at the stud. The Johnny Cash song, A Boy Named Sue must be the reason and a clever one too. Nobody will forget his name!
Soho Susie is also the half-sister to Tony O’Callaghan’s prolific winner-producing stallion Mehmas. Anne O’Callaghan, Tony’s wife, is John Magnier’s sister.
A Boy Named Susie, trained by Donnacha, is owned by his sister Ana. I always loved seeing her full given name Anastasia in racecards when she was a highly promising jockey until injury curtailed her career.
She entrusted her brother with the training of A Boy Named Susie, unlike two other nice horses that elder brother Joseph handled for her to win races before selling profitably later. This colt, a 200k son of Coolmore’s Starspangledbanner, made a winning start with a three-length stroll at Killarney last summer.
You might have expected a graduated campaign, but Donnacha launched his sister’s pride and joy immediately into Group company and, so far, they have yet to be rewarded with another win.
Never mind, the prizemoney tally is now up to £370k from seven subsequent runs. He has been second three times, third once and fourth on another three occasions, but the progression has been steady and consistent.
And the names of the winners of those seven races? His second two-year-old race produced a promising fourth in the Irish EBF Futurity (Group 2) behind Constitution River. Another Group 2 fourth place followed, albeit last of four but only five lengths adrift of Benvenuto Cellini in the Champion Juvenile Group 2 at Leopardstown.
He stepped up next time with a short-head second to Christmas Day in the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes at Leopardstown and wound up for the year with another second, two lengths behind Pierre Bonnard in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
Things didn’t get any easier in 2026, starting out with third to Christmas Day in the time-honoured Derby trial, the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown. Then it was on to Chantilly for fourth in the Jockey Club and thence his finest hour on Saturday in the Eclipse.
The winners thus of his seven races since that debut have been Constitution River three times, Benvenuto Cellini, Christmas Day twice and Pierre Bonnard. “Dad, could you forget to enter anything next time?” could be the obvious refrain from Donnacha. “No chance, son. You find something I haven’t spotted!”
The horses that have won his races have gone on to success in the Derby (Christmas Day), Irish Derby (Benvenuto Cellini), French Derby and Eclipse (Constitution River), The only “flop” if you could call him that is Pierre Bonnard, just the third in the Irish Derby on the credit side since he beat Susie in France last October.
But where oh where are our Group 1 middle-distance horses? A look through Horses In Training shows legions of expensively bought and classically bred middle-distance animals in several powerful yards in Newmarket, Lambourn and elsewhere. Does the trials programme get going too late as against such races as the Ballysax early on in Ireland?
Whatever the reason, the big home teams haven’t been able to stem the tide. You thought King Canute had a tough job! After Sandown, O’Brien senior is already more than five-eighths of the way towards his record tally of £8.3 million set two years ago with the help of City Of Troy – and he still has that brilliant horse’s progeny to come on stream.
The future’s grim, the future’s Coolmore!
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It was sad to hear of the death of Graham Bradley at 65. He hadn’t been in the best of health for some time. Despite spending many years trying to atone for earlier misdemeanours, this most stylish of jockeys was never allowed a licence to train.
Having been in the Michael Dickinson yard in its heyday and as the winner of the 1983 Cheltenham Gold Cup on Bregawn, heading home the Famous Five, he would have had plenty of expertise to make the transition to trainer.
He wouldn’t have been the first or last brilliant jump jockey to lose his way, but it seemed he was always the one marked out for “special” negative treatment by racing’s authorities.
Equally, it was also sad to hear of the passing of Peter Waney, whose West End restaurants Zuma and Meraki have long been a feature of the London scene.
Karachi-born, Waney and his family moved to Mumbai at the time of the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947. He later became a long-standing owner with the Hannon stable. The only time I went to a Waney restaurant was when Ray Tooth took his staff (and me, thanks Ray!) to Dubai a decade or so ago. Waney arranged to squeeze the dozen or so of us in an otherwise fully booked evening session at Zuma and the food was delightful. Farewell Peter, your many racing friends will miss you.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/ConstitutionRiver_CoralEclipse_2026.png316830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2026-07-06 03:50:532026-07-05 14:59:22Monday Musings: Where are the Brits?
In this article, I will be looking at horses running on the all-weather (AW) in the months of July and August, writes Dave Renham. Data have been taken from 2017 to 2025 UK AW races and profits/losses calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP), less 2% commission on any winning bets.
Naturally, the focus for most in July and August is the turf with some big meetings including three of the biggest of the year at Newmarket, Goodwood and York. However, away from the limelight, has all-weather racing during those months offered punters an edge in any way over the past few years? Let’s start digging to find out.
Market Rank
I want to look first at the betting market focusing on market rank or position in the betting. I am using the BSP ranked positions for this:
The value has been with those second in the market, a cohort that secured a blind return of just over 3p in the £. Indeed, when focusing on non-handicaps only, this group enjoyed 175 winners from 694 runners (SR 25.2%) for a profit of £76.38 with returns of 11p in the £.
In terms of favourites, we can see they suffered overall losses of 5.5p in the £, and it was non-handicap market leaders that struggled the most. Such runners won nearly 41% of the time (285 wins from 697), but their losses were steep: £69.45 (ROI -10%).
Digging into this group a little more, if we look at the record of 2-year-old favourites in non-handicaps we can see that they performed very poorly. They managed 122 wins from 377 runs (SR 37.8%) but at a loss of £59.45 (ROI -18.4%). Narrowing the 2yo non-handicap favourite data down further to 2yo maiden races, favourites endured a dreadful time of time of it with just 21 winners from 78 runners (SR 26.9%) for significant losses of £32.81 (ROI -42.1%).
It is also worth noting that horses sent off sixth or bigger in the betting performed quite poorly, losing close to 20 pence for every £1 staked.
Regular readers know that I like to concentrate on 'non-rags', so let me split the results by those that were BSP 16.0 or less versus those BSP 16.01 or more:
This perhaps should not come as such a big surprise based on the findings shared earlier about horses sixth or bigger in the betting; a good chunk of such runners would have ended up in the BSP 16.01 or more group. In fact, if we focus on an even bigger priced cohort, those BSP 30.0 or longer, that would have lost over 32p in the £.
Clearly July and August has been a time where not many big priced winners have popped up on the sand. Thus, hereafter, I will be focusing on horses that were priced BSP 16.0 or less only.
Sex of horse
Let's now look at the record of male horses versus female ones. The splits below are based on the results of races open to both sexes. It makes no sense to include male or female only races in any such comparison:
There was well over twice as many male runners, which is the norm, and they recorded a better win rate, also the norm. In terms of returns males edged that, too.
The difference between the sexes widens a little when we look specifically at mixed age handicap races. The breakdown was as follows:
Well, it certainly widens in terms of returns with males having a slightly bigger upside here. From an A/E (BSP) index perspective, a metric that measures value, males in mixed handicaps have offered better value as the graph below shows.
A figure above 1.00 indicates value and male runners have edged above that hitting 1.04.
Age of horse
For this section I have ignored two-year-olds as there is little point comparing them to other age groups.
The biggest takeaway from here is the very poor performance of older horses: losses of just over 33p in the £ has been very poor. For the record, 3yos have a similar record in 3yo only races compared to those open to 3yos and older ones.
Position Last Time Out (LTO)
Let us see how the most recent run has affected performance based on last time out finishing position.
LTO winners nudged into a very small profit, while horses that finished second produced huge profits. Their A/E (BSP) figure stands at an impressive 1.12.
Race type LTO
I wondered if a run on the AW last time or on the turf would make a difference, and when I looked at the strike rates there was a difference of just over 1.5% as the graph below shows:
Does this strike rate difference affect the profit and loss figures? The table below reveals all:
The answer is an emphatic ‘yes’, thanks to a difference of £462.41 between the two to £1 level stakes. The difference in terms of returns was a smidge above 8p in the £. Clearly, based on these numbers, a run last time on the turf is preferable.
We saw earlier that both last time out winners and last out runners up were profitable over the period of study. When those most recent firsts or seconds were on turf, the figures improved further as the table below shows:
Not only have the strike rates improved but the returns have, too. The ROI% increase for LTO winners was around 4% while for last time runners up it increased by nearly 10%. The A/E (BSP) index for this cohort of runners up stands at a very healthy 1.22. Hence, any horse that finished first or second LTO on the turf needs close scrutiny this July and August when running next on the AW.
Trainers
On to trainer performance now. Below is a table containing all trainers who had at least 100 runners on the AW in July and August (2017-2025) priced BSP 16.0 or less. The table is sorted by win strike rate:
There were more trainers in profit than in loss in this table (19 of the 28), with several showing good returns. Let me share a few observations:
George Boughey
Over the last two years Boughey's record reads 10 wins from 36 (SR 27.8%) for a profit of £34.90 (ROI +96.9%). He also did well when his runners started second in the betting market. This cohort won 35.7% of the time (10 from 28) for a profit of £15.64 (ROI +55.9%).
John+Thady Gosden
Look out for Gosden-trained favourites. Their 61 qualifiers fared very well, winning 55.7% of the time and returning just below 20p in the £.
Richard Hughes
Horses second in the betting have been profitable for Hughes thanks to 12 wins from 40 (SR 30%) for a surplus of £13.52 (ROI +33.8%). He also had an exceptional record with LTO winners, scoring with 50% of their follow-up AW starts (10 wins from 20) for a healthy profit of £17.96 (ROI +89.8%).
Sir Mark Prescott
Sir Mark has been consistent across all six AW tracks producing profits at five. The only losing course for him was Wolverhampton where he had minimal losses of 4p in the £. Horses that finished fourth or worse LTO had a good record on the all-weather in July and August for the stable thanks 19 wins from 65 (SR 29.2%) for a profit of £31.55 (ROI +48.5%).
Roger Varian
Varian has performed well with second favourites, claiming 17 wins from 56 runners (SR 30.4%) for a profit of £16.20 (ROI +18.2%). He had a good record specifically when sending runners to Lingfield: 10 wins from 27 (SR 37%) for a profit of £7.62 (ROI +28.2%).
Archie Watson
Take note when Watson runners appear at Lingfield. His record reads an excellent 10 wins from 30 (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £24.79 (ROI +88.6%). He also did well at Wolverhampton with 21 winners from 58 (SR 36.2%) for a profit to BSP of £26.15 (ROI +45.1%). Watson's LTO winners performed with credit winning 12 of 30 starts (SR 40%) for a profit of £5.97 (ROI +19.9%).
Earlier I shared the fact that a LTO run on the turf had been preferable, and below is a graph showing the trainers with the best records with horses that raced in a turf flat race LTO. To qualify, they must have had at least 75 qualifiers and recorded a profit. The graph shows their relevant returns on investment to BSP.
There were some excellent returns especially for Messrs. Botti, Fahey, Palmer and Prescott.
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That wraps up this piece and it there have been plenty of positive angles highlighted for racing on the AW over the months of July and August, as well as some clear negatives.
Below is a quick summary of positives and negatives, mainly focusing on horses priced 16.0 or less BSP. The aide memoire excludes trainer findings as there were so many different positive angles, highlighted separately above.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Judicial_Callum_geegeez.webp7791100Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2026-06-30 15:08:272026-06-30 15:08:27A Look at Summer All-Weather Racing
One, two, three, it’s easy as ABC, or rather it’s easy as shelling peas for AOB, writes Tony Stafford.
It was thought in some circles beforehand that Irish Derby win number 18 might have been threatened by the unbeaten and highly regarded Owen Burrows-trained Shadwell colt Raaheeb.
Backed down to 11/4 second favouritism here, behind Betfred Derby phantom non-runner (that ran!) Benvenuto Cellini, he did win the race for the non-Ballydoyle team.
For the record, this one-two-three was led by Frankel’s son Benvenuto Cellini (Ryan Moore) by almost two lengths, from Christmas Day and his Epsom partner Ronan Whelan, with Pierre Bonard an honourable third just behind. Raaheeb beat the rest by five lengths, but trailed home half a dozen lengths behind Pierre Bonnard and Wayne Lordan.
So Ryan got his second Derby win of the year, following on from the Prix du Jockey Club when he and Constitution River led home Hawk Mountain and Montreal over the ten and a half furlongs at Chantilly for a rather less overwhelming Coolmore trifecta.
That makes it at least half a dozen O’Brien three-year-old colts that will continue to dominate Group 1 middle-distance races for the rest of the year.
While not everyone agreed with the declaring of Benvenuto Cellini a non-runner, one who was vocal in applauding the decision was Peter Brant, in whose green colours the son of Frankel runs, but with all the usual Coolmore team as partners.
Brant is also on the team associated with Christmas Day. Like the regulars, he now has the Irish and English Derby winners in his ownership and the 28 lengths by which Benvenuto Cellini trailed home his teammate at Epsom has been officially expunged from the records. As in, “It wasn’t me, guv!”
The main plank of Peter’s justification was that Ryan was unable to take up the prominent position that had been planned for at Epsom. He couldn’t, he said, owing to that odd “caught up in the framework” incident, but he wasn’t all that close early on yesterday either as the team’s outsider Action set a fast pace from Christmas Day.
While he did show impressive pace to catch Christmas Day once Action had faded away, neither the second nor the third did anything to diminish his reputation. Both placed colts are by Camelot and must be among the prime contenders to maintain Coolmore and O’Brien’s customary strong hand in the St Leger.
Apart from the Irish Oaks, that pretty much does it for the spring/summer 2026 Classics and if hadn’t been for Bow Echo and George Boughey, this year would have been almost a whitewash for the O’Brien team.
I’ve been waiting for a suitable time to contradict everyone else’s pronunciation of the 2,000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes winner’s name.
George Hill, whose granddaughter Grace Learoyd-Hill, 20, won a big showjumping class for senior newcomers at Newport on Saturday – a star for the future he hopes, any sponsor out there? – tells me the Bow should be pronounced as Bough. It relates to the echo from the bow of a boat. You heard it here first.
If the Derby form from Epsom stood up well this weekend, the Oaks suffered a less satisfactory result when easy English winner Thundering On (Joseph O’Brien) could finish only fourth behind the five-year-old mare Estrange in the Pretty Polly Stakes.
David O’Meara has had to be patient with the Cheveley Park Stud-owned mare, who was running for only the ninth time (six wins) in her career. The long-held plan has been the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and that looks ever more feasible – even though Coolmore and the French will throw everything at her. She better get it done this October as top geldings like Calandagan and Goliath will be eligible to run in it twelve months hence. “Mon Dieu”, said M. Fabre.
I was interested to catch Dan Skelton yesterday talking about his season’s target which remains aiming to beat Martin Pipe’s record of 243 wins in a single jumps campaign, set in 1999/2000.
We kept watching almost in awe as his prize money tally for the term ending late April approached and then passed £5 million. His 194 winners from 1,094 runners realised £5,045,615. Putting that in perspective, O’Brien has won 40 races in Ireland this flat season, with earnings exceeding €3 million. I doubt it will be long before he passes Skelton’s 2025/26 tally in the UK this year. His 15 2026 wins have contributed to £4,679,151 win and place earnings.
And it won’t be getting easier for anyone to challenge him for the top prizes next season. A series of smart juvenile winners over the three days of the Irish Derby weekend was climaxed by the scintillating six-length romp of Sea The Stars filly Alpha in the opening seven-furlong fillies’ maiden yesterday.
A smart-looking and pedigree-powerful squad opposed this filly who was making her second start. Ryan took her to the front from the outset and she made all to beat stablemate Ibelieveicanfly by an easy six lengths.
When the two fillies made their debuts together a few weeks back, Ryan rode Ibelieveicanfly and Wayne Lordan was on Alpha, the pair going off as 2/1 joint-favourites, finishing in second and fourth respectively.
Ryan was on the right one this time and having been one and a half lengths Ibelieveicanfly’s superior then, she emphatically extended the margin. The winner’s dam, Alpha Centauri, was a top-class filly rated 123. If ever there was a long-range Oaks candidate, surely Alpha must be an early front-runner.
Having endured those unreal temperatures at the backend of last week, I must applaud the decision of the BHA to stage early-morning fixtures rather than afternoon programmes. The French have been doing it for ages – their meetings last week at Deauville (8.30 am) and Chantilly at 8.45, so an hour earlier here, were halfway done before Doncaster began at 10.15am.
My mate Richard Farnese won’t have been happy. There is a tradition with many Yarmouth racecourse regulars to stop off on the way to the track to his Café La Continental for a sumptuous breakfast. I confess to that predilection.
I cannot bear the thought of all those superb all-day breakfasts going uneaten. A race sponsor at Yarmouth for many years, I trust Richard will have been on site last week to remind everyone that he would still be open for breakfasts after the last race at 1 pm.
Horses aged three or older: analysing their first run in a flat handicap
In this article, as the title states, I will be looking horses having their first run in a handicap race on the flat, writes Dave Renham. Specifically, I am ignoring two-year-olds and focusing solely on horses aged three or older. Data have been taken from 2018 to 2025 in UK flat and AW handicaps with profit/loss calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP), less 2% commission on any winning bets.
All Qualifiers
Let me start by looking at the results for all qualifiers across the eight years of study.
As we can see these horses have won roughly once in every nine starts and have made an overall profit. Of course, the figures are skewed somewhat with nine winners priced over 100.0 BSP, the highest being BSP 431.91. Hence, as I tend to do with most of my articles, it makes sense to impose a price cap to try and avoid certain stats looking better than they actually are. I think including horses up to BSP 16.0 is a sensible price point to use, and I will implement that for the remainder of the article.
So, let me look therefore at the figures for all qualifiers that were priced BSP 16.0 or less.
We still see a small overall profit which is interesting. It is clearly worth digging a bit deeper given this positive starting point.
Race Class
I want to look first at the ROI percentages for all these qualifiers (BSP 16.0 or less) in their respective Race Class.
I have grouped Class 7 with the Class 6 results and for the record there were only seven qualifiers from Class 7 races. There were four Class 1 handicaps during the period of study, but they don’t exist anymore, so it seemed pointless to add them in.
The graph shows that Class 2 qualifiers struggled in comparison, and the table below gives us a deeper breakdown:
Class 2 handicaps are contested by the best handicappers so that might be a reason why horses having their first run in a handicap struggled a little at that level. All other Class brackets edged into profit, with Class 3 first-timers doing best.
Age of horse
Now, let me split the results by age.
It should come as no surprise that the vast majority of runners have been aged three and, overall, they have had a solid record. Not many older horses (aged five or more) qualified, as would be expected, but actually as a group they have done well.
Sex of horse
Now I would like to look at the record of male horses versus female ones. The breakdown below is based on the results of mixed sex races, those races open to both sexes. It makes no sense to include male or female only races in any such comparison:
There was roughly double the number of male runners, which is the norm, and although they had a better win rate, females have been slightly better value when priced BSP 16.0 or less. However, in truth there has been little in it.
Position LTO
Let me now look at performance based on last time out position. The graph below shows the returns to BSP for each group:
As the graph illustrates, the value has been with horses that were soundly beaten last time (those finishing sixth or worse). Below is a table showing more keys stats including strike rate and the actual profit/loss figures.
My perception looking at all the evidence is that horses that finished second last time have been overbet, which makes sense to me, whereas those finishing sixth or worse have been under bet, hence they have offered a bit of value.
Previous Career runs
How about previous number of career runs? Has that made any difference? Let's take a look:
The vast majority of qualifiers had raced three to five times previously which makes sense because most horses qualify for their first handicap run after three previous career runs. This group produced the best returns as we can see. The performance of those with six or more runs was the poorest, but even losses of just over 6p in the £ is not the worst we have ever seen by some way.
Previous runs over the distance
I wondered if the number of previous runs over the race distance made any difference. Here are the splits:
Based on these stats, previous distance runs of zero or one have both given positive outcomes. Performance has started to tail off a little for runners with two previous runs over the distance, getting slightly worse for three, and then being relatively poor once we get to four or more. Albeit the four or more group is very small in comparison with the others.
Trainer Angles
Onto the area that many readers enjoy most: trainers and their performance. Below is a table containing all trainers who had at least 75 runners making their first run in a handicap when priced BSP 16.0 or less:
There are more trainers in profit than showing a loss in this table, (23 vs 12), with a few standouts. The Charlton stable, Kevin Ryan, Hugo Palmer, Alan King, Sir Mark Prescott and Richard Hughes have all managed to achieve returns in excess of 30 pence in the £. Let me share some ‘extras’ in regard to these six stables:
The Charlton stable had six winning years in a row from 2019 to 2024, but 2025 did saw just one winner from 17. Variance, or something else?
Kevin Ryan had an outstanding record with his sprinters when making their handicap debut. Of the 60 runners over five or six furlongs 18 won (SR 30%) for a healthy profit of £74.85 (ROI +124.7%). He also did well at Newcastle scoring six times from 17 runners (SR 35.3%) for a profit of £14.87 (ROI +87.5%).
Hugo Palmer has been consistent with six winning years out of eight.
Over 1m 4f Alan King’s runners have excelled, winning seven races from just 16 runners returning a huge 264p in the £.
Sir Mark Prescott has long been renowned for this handicap debutants. He is 5 from 10 at Yarmouth over the past eight seasons and 8 from 25 at Wolverhampton securing decent profits at both. Ignoring his favourites, which tend to be over bet, his record reads 26 wins from 106 (SR 34.5%) for a profit of £52.64 (ROI +48.7%). Also keep an eye out for his runners that finished well beaten last time out. Those that finished sixth or further down the field LTO have won 30 times on handicap debut from 101 starts (SR 29.7%) for a profit to BSP of £26.95 (ROI +26.7%).
Richard Hughes, like Palmer, has been very consistent with seven winning years out of eight. His female runners have secured returns of over 78p in the £.
With most of the runners being 3yos, I want to examine trainer records with 3yos running in 3yo only races compared with running in 3yo+ ones. Firstly, the overall trainer numbers from 3yo only handicaps:
Again, several trainers stand out, and below is a graph showing the trainers with the highest A/E indices based on BSP prices. This is a metric that helps to determine good value. All these figures are above 1.20 which are very strong indeed.
I will be keeping any eye out for handicap debutants in 3yo only races from these stables this year. For the record Richard Hughes turned a profit with these runners in seven of the eight years; Richard Hannon and the Charlton stable in six apiece.
Now a look at the 3yo+ handicap race data for these trainers with their 3yos have their first run in a handicap:
We drop down now to roughly half the trainers in profit, which makes sense I guess considering these 3yos will be up against older, more seasoned horses in such races. Also, the sample sizes for most of the trainers are smaller than the 3yo only ones, and in many cases much smaller. Only Saeed bin Suroor has run more 3yo debutants in races for older horses compared to races for 3yos only.
I thought it would be a good idea next to compare both the win strike rates and the A/E (BSP) indices for each trainer in 3yo races versus 3yo+ races with their 3yos. Remember the price cap is in place still at BSP 16.0. I have colour coded the A/E indices – anything 1.15 or above suggest good value and is coloured blue; anything 0.80 or lower is coloured red which suggests poor value.
There are some significant differences for certain trainers when comparing their records in the different age group races. Below is a quick ready reckoner table to show the trainers with the biggest contrasts:
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That's all for this one. Lots to go at in terms of profitable angles for three-year-olds running first time in a handicap. Here's hoping we catch a nice one or two in the coming days, weeks and months. Until next time...
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/MrProfessor_LincolnHandicap2024_Doncaster.png319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2026-06-23 14:42:352026-07-03 08:45:033yo+ First Time in a Handicap: An Analysis
Considering how fit he looked the last time I saw him on one of his visits with the Aidan O’Brien team last year, it’s almost unfathomable that it’s 36 years (27 January 1990 to be exact) that Dean Gallagher outrode the top-class Graham McCourt to guide Willsford home first in a staying chase at Cheltenham for the Jenny Pitman stable, writes Tony Stafford.
Two runs and two races later, McCourt and Norton’s Coin gained their revenge over Jenny, this time as a 100/1 shot in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Sirrell Griffiths saddled the winner, with Toby Tobias and Mark Pitman a close runner-up ahead of the odds-on Desert Orchid in third.
Mark Pitman stepped into the Gold Cup top spot a year later with Garrison Savannah, beating off the top French horse The Fellow in a tight finish. After his riding career, Mark Pitman had some productive years as a trainer but it’s been a while since he held a licence.
Dean had a tricky time of it with Jenny. I’ve often wondered whether the presence of her son in the yard put a subconscious antipathy towards a man whose riding talent was clear to most as being superior to that of his colleague and rival.
At this point I should declare an interest. I knew Dean’s father Tom from the days he worked as a travelling head lad for Jim Bolger. I think he may already have left for a similar role with Dermot Weld when he called and said that Dean needed a change of scene and could I get him a job in England?
At that time, I was involved with several horses in the Rod Simpson yard and, as with Simon Whitworth whose solicitor father Eric contacted me with a similar request at around the same time, I suggested Rod. They both moved there but Dean was too heavy to ride exclusively on the flat and the switch to a jumps yard was sensible. I’ve since mulled whether an offer from Martin Pipe for Dean to join as his conditional rider would have been a better move, but Rod and a couple of his major owners persuaded him to stay. Also, one of the many changes in the Rules might have proved a problem too had he joined.
At Jenny’s, Dean shared the winners and to some extent the rides with Mark, but the relationship with the trainer was apparently never easy and one morning on the gallops, Dean snapped, untacked his horse and walked back to the yard with his saddle - but without the horse. If it’s not true, Dean, I have heard the story enough times to believe it is!
From there it wasn’t a career path strewn with roses but eventually he teamed up with owner Paul Green and for him rode the ex-French Hors La Loi III to victory in the 2002 Champion Hurdle, trained by James Fanshawe.
Later, he was mainly associated with the top French yard of Frederic Cottin riding four Grade 1s and many other Graded race winners across the Channel.
Since remarrying and settling down close to Ballydoyle, he is one of many other top former race riders – Adrian Maguire another – whose skills have been appreciated by Aidan. Here he was – I wasn’t as you know – in the entourage with his regular morning ride, Scandinavia, who won that epic Gold Cup duel on Thursday against the brave Trawlerman.
Mark Pitman was also there, as his former riding colleague Luke Harvey pointed out before a race later in the week, helping the stalls team load up the massive fields that were a frequent feature of many races. One horse was particularly explosive before its race and Mark was deposited on his backside right in front of the ITV cameras. Happily, he got up grinning. There’s something about racing. If it’s in your blood, it takes a lot to get rid of it!
If there was some excitement to be had at the despatch area, never can an Ascot crowd have been as thrilled by so many tight finishes. If you take the purely arbitrary notion of half a length – a margin that rightly could convince supporters of more than one horse in any race that they would be in with a chance right up to the line – an amazing 23 of the 35 races were settled by that amount or less.
Both on the Tuesday and Thursday, all seven races were so concluded and on Saturday only the opening Norfolk Stakes, won thrillingly by three-and-a-half lengths by the Clive Cox-trained and Rossa Ryan-ridden Orthodox, escaped the narrow margin parameters.
His win was my highlight of the week in talent terms. Five furlongs anywhere requires terrific speed, but on quick ground at Ascot with three Wesley Ward “rockets” setting the pace, each on its designated portion of Berkshire, it didn’t need much imagination to believe a come-from-behind horse would prevail.
I’ll never grow tired of watching Rossa bringing the son of Havana Grey through at the furlong pole to challenge two of the Wesley runners. He sluiced past them, quickly opening up a winning distance that was only exceeded by Ombudsman as he obliterated a rallying Minnie Hauk and Daryz by four lengths in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.
The Norfolk is usually the best guide to the future sprinting hierarchy. Orthodox might have won by seven or eight lengths had he been able to tackle the extra furlong of a Coventry or, from this year, the Listed Windsor Castle, but Clive loves his sprinters and no doubt will have his plans.
The obvious route would be the Gimcrack and Middle Park over six. How about, though, taking on the much less defined older generations in the Nunthorpe and the Prix de l’Abbaye staying at the minimum?
Watching from home had its downside. Marmite Chapman, shoes (or were they spats?) providing an instant antipathy, is getting above even himself. The post-race demarcation was illustrated with Orthodox’s win, Rishi Persad telling Clive Cox he would require speaking to Chapman as if trainers’ opinions were above his pay grade. It fell to him only to speak to jockeys.
As well as the post-race duties, Matt now has free rein to roam the paddock and tell trainers before their races how the jockey should ride their horses. The irritating way he dogged William Haggas through the week made one wonder what reaction he would have got from William’s late father-in-law. “Something off!” would be my best bet.
I’m surprised that the highly talented Fozzy Stack, having endured a second sycophantic few seconds – it seemed longer – from Matt, to have as a parting shot when he was already walking away as, “You’re a good trainer!” must have been fuel enough for him to come back and deck the self-styled arbiter of all racing knowledge.
I didn’t hear it at the time, but after hearing advice from Chapman as how best to ride his horse, world-leading jockey James McDonald was heard – I’m told – to reply: “How many winners have you ridden, mate?”
But it’s an entertainment business, moved jollily and knowledgeably along by Ed Chamberlin, with loyal lieutenants Jason Weaver, Francesca Cumani and Adele Mulrennan, showing their respective abilities. There’s also, of course, the true expert, Ruby Walsh, what an asset! Some of it gets repetitive, not least the genuflecting to Kevin Blake. Then again, as Matt would presumably say, “How many Derby third placed finishers have you bought for 50 grand?”
Joseph O’Brien readily acknowledges Blake’s contribution to the planning that brought five Ascot wins and three second places, bettered only by two more wins for Aidan, seven representing a joint best for him over 30 years as he went past the career century during the meeting.
You only need to look on the list which reveals trainers that have had at least one third place to see some unexpected names among the non-winners. I wonder if Chapman, if he even finds time to trouble speaking to them, would he say, “Hi there, …, you’re a bad trainer!”?
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Scandinavia_GoldCup_Ascot_2026.png263830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2026-06-22 06:11:382026-06-22 09:04:01Monday Musings: A Thrilling Ascot
On we go, to the fourth day of five at Royal Ascot but the final day of our full preview coverage. I hope we've managed to add some fun - and maybe a winner or two - to your week. There have been some fireworks already and perhaps, if it's not being greedy, we can add to the pyrotechnics one more time...
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The going for day four of Royal Ascot, Friday 19th June, is: Good to Firm.
GoingStick readings at 8.30am: Stands’ side: 8.9
Centre: 8.9
Far side: 8.3
Round: 7.6
Stalls: Straight Course: centre
Round Course: inside
Weather: Dry overnight to Friday morning. It is forecast to be generally dry through the remainder of the week. Max temps expected to be between 26 and 28c through to Saturday.
Watering: Watered 5mm on whole track overnight.
2.30 THE ALBANY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)
Presented by Gavin Priestley
6 of the last 7 winners had raced in the previous 30-34 day period and we have four fillies this year that fit the bill.
Two of the four finished 1st and 2nd in a Newmarket novice in the middle of May and it's the runner up that appeals the most due to her stable's previous notable record in the race.
There were four maiden winners of this race between 2005 and 2011 with the last two being trained by the Channon yard who also won three of the first ten renewals of the Albany (the third of their three winners had been beaten under a length at the same Newmarket May meeting as the selection).
It was Andrew Balding's Jolivette that won that Newmarket race but fellow newcomer Topaz ran on really well to move into contention from the rear of the field as they entered the final furlong. She reeled in a number of challengers and kept on in eyecatching fashion without quite getting to Jolivette, who had got the first run on the field, and she had to settle for finishing a neck down at the line. Topaz entered a lot of notebooks for that run and she'll be winning races for a stable with previous pedigree with this type of filly.
She certainly doesn't deserve to be twice the price of the Newmarket winner and seems to offer a fair bit of value for a yard looking to reclaim former glories.
Suggestion: Try Topaz EW 25/1 (4 places)
Tix Pointers: All of the last 13 winners also won last time out; but plenty of big priced horses have made the frame. I'll be spreading out with last day winners.
The newest Group 1 at the Royal meeting, the Commonwealth Cup has bridged a glaring gap for top class three-year-olds that either failed to stay the Guineas trip or were never intended to go that far.
Although fields are usually large, winners have tended to be lurking in the shallows: ten of the 11 winners to date were sent off 12/1 or shorter and in the top five (including joints) in the betting. Of course, lobbing a curveball, was last year's scorer, Time For Sandals at 25/1. She was a third filly to win the race from 45 starters; the fairer sex has a similar win rate but a better place rate and a much better PRB.
With 22 scheduled to go to post, it might be worth noting that the two longest priced winners were when the field size was 21+. Only the electric Campanelle was able to go gate to wire, eight of the 11 winners settling in the second half of the field through the early stages.
The best trials have been the Sandy Lane, the Carnarvon and the 2000 Guineas.
Venetian Sun won the Sandy Lane at Haydock last time having looked a non-stayer in the 1000 Guineas previously. As a juvenile she lowered Gstaad's colours in the G1 Prix Morny and is unbeaten at 6f or shorter. She'll be at peak fitness and was ultra-impressive last time out. The problem is that she's very short - 6/4 in a field of 22 for a Group 1.
Aidan O'Brien is naturally represented here, by the runner-up from the Carnarvon Stakes, Albert Einstein. He's not won above Group 3 level and there's no clear reason why he should reverse form on this more testing track with the re-opposing winner that day, Song Of The Clyde. Moreover, Aidan's record in the Commonwealth Cup is uncharacteristically average: just one win (Caravaggio) from 18 starters. He's had favourites sent off 5/6, 10/11, evens, 11/4 and 10/3 with only the aforementioned horse-named-after-a-painter getting it done, at 5/6. You don't need to be Einstein to figure that the Ballydoyle runner is a bit on the skinny side at 6/1.
Carnarvon winners are actually two from two in this, both Eqtidaar and Shaquille doubling up; that means Song Of The Clyde deserves at least a second squint. He was a rock solid juvenile, winning almost half a million quid courtesy of valuable sales races in which he won and ran second in fields of 21. He does tend to race prominently or on the lead and he'll need the far side rail to ride quicker than it has done in the early part of the week from his berth in 2, but he fits on form.
On the high side, Wesley Ward runs Outfielder, fourth (beaten 2.75L) in Venetian Sun's Morny and a winner of both starts Stateside this season. Fast turf is no issue to this dirt bred US speedster - he has two wins on firm over there - but a straight six with an uphill finish might be tough to sustain for a horse that wears his heart on his sleeve out front. Still, he'll likely offer a bold sight for backers and was still hanging tough with a furlong to go in the one mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last autumn (he really should have run in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, as I wrote at the time!).
Also high is the second Aidan arrow, Charles Darwin: Ballydoyle have really sent their top scientists to this one. Darwin was drawn similarly high when winning the five furlong Norfolk at this meeting last year and added a verdict over the extra furlong on debut in 2026. He clunked in a G3 last time, Ryan reporting he thought the horse had lost its action, and Wayne Lordan takes over now. Lordan has won five Group 1's since the beginning of last season, including both the Newmarket and Irish 1000 Guineas this spring. This son of No Nay Never was unbeaten in four prior to that last day glitch and gets first time blinkers here; he's a certain forward goer which, as mentioned, may not be a positive.
There is actually a ton of pace drawn high. As well as Outfielder and Charles Darwin, Rock On Thunder (drawn 22) and Fitzella (16) are also habitual trailblazers, as to a slightly lesser degree Brussels (18), the third APO'B runner. That might mean they go too hard stands side; but, if they don't, the likeliest to pick up the pieces are Venetian Sun (13) and Wise Approach (15).
The last named is a bit of a forgotten man in this. He was less than a length behind Venetian Sun in the Morny before winning the Group 1 Middle Park over 6f. True, he's underwhelmed twice in the spring, when beaten about three lengths in each of the Pavilion Stakes (a trial for this) and the Carnarvon; but what if those were sighters for his primary target, the Commonwealth Cup? An alternative theory is that he hasn't trained on - and that holds some water at this stage - but his price is playable and he figures to get a pace setup most likely.
Coppull won the Pavilion last time, and as a two-year-old was a close third to Wise Approach in the Middle Park and a slightly more distant third behind Gstaad in the Coventry. He has two solid bits of track and trip form, then, and is genuine Group 1 class. Stall 14 sandwiches him between Venetian Sun and Wise Approach.
If high numbers have had the best of it so far this week (Tue/Wed as I write this Thursday morning), the stall positions of CC winners gives pause for thought. To wit, last year stall 1 of 21, then 1 of 14, 3 of 13, 1 of 20, 11 of 15, 10 of 16, 4 of 9, and 3 of 22. Hmm. But let's take a breath and consider the evidence more broadly.
The chart above is PRB3 (the average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) by actual draw position (accounting for non-runners). This is a really good way of smoothing the curve and getting under the skin of seemingly counter-intuitive draw bias numbers. What it shows is that low draws have performed pretty well, especially very low; but so, too, have very high numbers: it appears that being close to either rail is an advantage. That makes a lot more sense even if it doesn't especially help us find the winner, not obviously at any rate.
What we can say is that those drawn in the middle have tended to struggle, which brings in Wise Approach and Venetian Sun. Good grief, help!
There's one more I want to highlight. Drawn 3 is Division, a Wathnan Racing-owned son of Kingman who has probably been screaming for a setup like this. He won a 13-runner Listed race at York over six last October and then, in two spins this term, ran an eyecatching closing third in the Pavilion (course and distance) and then got closest to Venetian Sun in the Sandy Lane at Haydock. He is a closer and, while most of the pace is high, the low numbers have Song Of The Clyde (2), Zanthos (1) and Havana Anna (7). They look sure to carry Division into the mix on his side, from where it's a case of whether they're in front or behind the other lot - assuming there's a, erm, division in the field.
Suggestion: It's a really tricky race if you, like me, want to oppose the 'obvious' filly in the field, Venetian Sun. She might very well win but I can't be taking 6/4. Instead I'm going make two small each way plays, on Wise Approach and Division. If low is again the place to be - or at least not the place not to be (eh?) - 12/1 Divisionshould be bang there. Wise Approach, also 12/1, does require a touch more imagination, but if you like VS from 13 you can't mind WA from 15; he obviously needs to step up on his 2026 level thus far.
Tix Pointers: It's not been a crazy race from a placepot perspective. That said, last year was 25/1, 28/1, 20/1, with the first two home drawn 1 and 20 in a field of 21. I'm definitely going deeper than the favourite on my A tickets.
3.40 THE DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)
Presented by Sam Darby
This will be my strongest fancy of the week in what is traditionally my favourite race of the meeting - hopefully we’re rewarded. I tend to only bet in the handicaps, and the straight course races are obviously highly unpredictable, not just because of the number of runners but also because the draw bias can be difficult to get right. There is a clear draw bias over 12f though, and that doesn’t change from race to race or meeting to meeting fortunately.
Even a quick glance at the above shows a strong draw bias towards the higher numbers and, particularly, away from the low numbers. In terms of PRB3, even the worst of the double figure stalls is pretty much better than any single figure stall and the best single figure stalls come out as 8 and 9. It’s not impossible to defy a lower draw, of course - the last three winners of this race have come from single figures (7, 4 and 9). However, the previous seven winners came from 19, 19, 14,12, 12, 19 and 18. Before I delve into the pace map and form, the other thing worth flagging is the role the draw plays in any pace bias. To defy a lower draw, you generally need to be prominent. That makes perfect sense given the patiently ridden horses from low stalls will often meet significant trouble in running in such large fields. The sweet spot appears to be a middle to high draw, with a prominent or mid division racing style. The pace map below is sorted high draws at the top to low draws at the bottom.
There look to be three potential front runners in this, all drawn middle to high. I’m not convinced they’ll go massively hard, but it does look likely to be run at an even gallop at least, and should be a pretty fair race on that score. I’ll cut straight to the chase. The horse I really like for this is HOPEWELL ROCK. For those of you who have read other previews and articles I’ve written, you’ll probably know that hot form plays a huge part in my selection process. I already liked Hopewell Rock for this at the five day stage, but he was given an almighty form boost in the final race on day one of this meeting. On seasonal debut at Newmarket, in a steadily run contest, Hopewell Rock did well to finish 3rd (beaten just 1.75 lengths) after being held up out the back. The first two home were Daiquiri Bay and Gamrai, who held the first two positions throughout. That pair then finished 1st and 2nd again in the Copper Horse Stakes on Tuesday. Opportunity was the ante post favourite for this but I already thought he might be vulnerable having gone up 8lbs for winning what looked a fairly weak race last time, albeit winning it very well. He’s now been handed stall 1, which has a dreadful record in these races, and I’d be very confident in opposing this horse. Warrant Holder fared much better with the draw (17) and he’s sure to be popular given his profile. It’s worth noting though that he was 5.5 lengths behind Hopewell Rock at Leicester in October and is now 11lbs worse off with that rival. That’s not to say he can’t reverse the form eight months later - a lot of water has passed under the bridge since - but Warrant Holder’s subsequent exploits are another form boost for the selection. That horse is probably the main danger to Hopewell Rock, whilst at bigger prices, I could see Plage De Havre running into the places. He looks held by the handicapper, but his Old Newton Cup demolition job last year worked out extremely well, and being 10lbs higher for winning that race by four lengths makes him vulnerable to less exposed rivals without ruling him out. It will be interesting to see what race position Hopewell Rock can get early. I’d have definitely preferred a higher draw to guarantee a wider trip. From stall 8, I still worry that James McDonald won’t have done his homework and he’ll switch him inside and have him out the back. He will have a massive chance of riding the winner if he can keep wider and slot in around mid division, before challenging down the outside in the straight. If you can get 5/1+, I think he’s still okay as an each way bet.
Suggestion: Back Hopewell Rock e/w at 5/1+
Tix Pointers: High draws are fine here, and horses patiently ridden and lucky in the run are those on which to focus. Obviously we won't know which are which on either count until after the race - annoying!
If the St James's Palace Stakes on Tuesday is a confluence of the European 2000 Guineas form, then the Coronation Stakes is the 1000 Guineas' equivalent. Sadly, with no French entry this year it looks a straight match between the winners at Newmarket and the Curragh, both trained by that man Aidan.
At Newmarket, Precise was favoured and ridden by Ryan Moore but True Love won, ridden by Wayne Lordan. Precise, racing on the other side of the track, was beaten five lengths by a winner that was a neck shy of two lengths better than anything else in the race.
If we thought we had our miling queen crowned, the Curragh was a reset of pre-Newmarket thinking. This time, True Love was favoured and ridden by Moore, but Precise re-asserted her primacy in the hands of Wayne Lordan. Precise 1 True Love 1, but Wayne 2 Ryan 0. How frustrating it must be for a jockey in such a position.
Precise is likely to be waited with, as is her wont, and in a smallish field that ought not to be an issue; she looks good to go 2-1 ahead on her fellow Classic-winning stablemate, and 4/6 might not be an uncharitable offer from the layers either, if odds on is your thing.
If there's one thing that tempers enthusiasm, it's O'Brien's relatively poor record in the Coronation Stakes. Since 2009, he's saddled 24 fillies and won just twice, with Lillie Langtry in 2010 and Winter in 2017. Hermosa was beaten at evens, Found at 13/8, Homecoming Queen at 9/4, Opera Singer at 10/3 and Meditate and Together, both 7/2. Food for thought, at least.
I got the impression that Newmarket may have taken plenty out of True Love, who was clearly riper that day, when she ran fairly flat at the Curragh - albeit still grabbing the silver medal. As such, I'd be more wary of her this time. Depending on whether I'm right or wrong on that, there are one or two each way places to play for so let's go deeper into the field.
Touleen raced on the same (wrong) side as Precise in the 1000 Guineas, and finished half a length in front of that one though no match for Evolutionist (a noted absentee here) who 'won' that far side race. She'd previously run a lovely race in defeat in the Fred Darling, closing for second over the inadequate seven furlongs at Newbury. Owen Burrows is a trainer I respect more than most and he's eminently capable with a decent Shadwell horse (think Hukum, Alflaila, Minzaal, Anmaat). There's a feeling this filly has a bit more to come and, though there needs to be on the balance of respective form, she's a definite place player at least.
We haven't seen Balantina since last season, which didn't stop Inspiral in 2022; but that filly was unbeaten whereas this one brings solid but not outstanding claims to the party. Her trainer, Donnacha O'Brien, won this two years ago with Porta Fortuna but she arrived with a neck second in the 1000 Guineas under her belt. There are enough reasons to discount her this time though I'll be very interested to see how she runs with a view to the second half of the campaign.
Fourth at the Curragh was Black Caviar Gold, and she gets a first time visor here. Trainer Paddy Twomey has reached for the visor five times in the past two years, saddling a winner and two seconds from that quintet. They were all very well fancied, however, so that doesn't really tell us anything! This filly doesn't look good enough, in truth.
Similar comments apply to each of Timeforshowcasing, Moon Target and Rose Ghaiyyath, but Sukanya may not be completely without hope. She won the Fred Darling, beating Touleen, before running no sort of a race in the Irish 1000. She got a bump at the start there and was lit up and keen as a result; as such, she was entitled to guzzle her gas before the race was over. It wouldn't be the biggest shock if she made the frame.
Suggestion: This is not a deep renewal and 4/6 PRECISE probably wins. The obvious alternative, True Love from the same stable, looks opposable I think, making 9/1 Touleenreasonable each way value. Hail Mary players might consider a ha'penny each way on 40/1 Sukanya in case her Curragh spin was a chuck out.
Tix Pointers: The favourite or second favourite has placed in 12 of the last 13 years. Favourite banker?
A 3yo fillies handicap over the straight mile to finish my week’s work. I’ll start by taking a look at the 15-year trends, which see four strong pointers.
Market Rank
Six wins for the SP favourites (seven for the BSP fav) so, despite having big fields generally (11 of the races with 20+ runners), the market has proved a good guide as far as market leaders are concerned.
Price LTO
Related, 14 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 17/2 or less LTO. A further 31 were placed. Horses priced 9/1 or bigger LTO have won just once from 123 runners (10 placed).
Weight Rank
Seven of the last 15 winners have come from the top four in the weights (inc. joint 4th). This equates to 47% of the winners from just under 20% of the total runners. Also, a further 14 were placed.
Position LTO
Eight of the last 15 winners won LTO. This equates to 53% of the winners from just 28% of the total runners.
We have a few angles for those who follow long term race trends, then.
Looking at the draw now, and last year the first three horses were drawn 2, 6 and 1, whereas in 2023 the first seven home were drawn middle to high. This race has not been that easy to predict draw wise, unlike some of the other straight course races that have tended to show a more reliable and consistent bias. However, I personally will take high to middle over low unless the ground comes up soft, which given the forecast seems very unlikely.
Moving onto run style / pace, 10 of the last 11 winners, and 36 of 44 win & placed runners, were either held up or raced no closer than midfield early. This seems to be a race where waiting tactics are the order of the day. Here is the pace map this time around:
All the early pace looks to be in the high numbers here so a middle to high draw could be the place to be.
Here are some of the leading contenders...
Seet – trained by the Gosdens who won this race in 2023 with Coppice. Is a very good trends fit and seems to have the right pace profile albeit having had just three career runs (six of the last 18 winners had just the three runs). Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking and, since 2008, the Moore/Gosden combo has secured 40 wins from 149 rides hitting close to a 27%-win rate, and this year they are currently seven from 12. Drawn 20 looks decent based on the pace map.
Glyfada – not seen on a racecourse as a 2yo but has had two wins and a second from three starts this year. Irish raiders have been successful a couple of times in the last 15 years. Oisin Murphy takes the ride which looks a positive. Drawn 31 which I am thinking might be a good one.
Symbol of Majesty – another from the Gosden yard. Was beaten favourite last time at Wolverhampton when getting poorly positioned from off the pace. Will need to bounce back. Drawn 21.
Darn Hot Gallop – Out of her depth in the 1000 Guineas but previously was three from three at a lower level. If the stable really thought the horse had the potential to be competitive at Group 1 level, then she must have a chance here.
Rosa Inglesa – Charlie Fellows bagged this race in consecutive years in 2019 and 2020 and runs Rosa Inglesa this time. Last time out was a comfortable winner at Nottingham and has been raised 9lb for that success. That doesn’t look too harsh to me. Drawn 19.
Suggestion: Famous last words but I want to be drawn middle to high here and hence my three favoured horses are Seet (drawn 20), Rosa Inglesa (drawn 19) and Glyfada (drawn 31). I’m going to suggest 5/1 Seet to win and 9/1 Glyfadaeach way.
Tix Pointers: A race where staying close to the top of the market has served very well. And a patient ride (midfield or held up) has got 11 of the last 13 winners.
5.35 THE KING EDWARD VII STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Rory Delargy
Traditionally known as the ‘Ascot Derby’ the King Edward VII is rarely a target for those who have gone to Epsom due to its proximity, and it no longer enjoys the status it once enjoyed for all it still retains Group 2 status. Derby flop Ancient Egypt bids to get his career back on track but while I’d excuse his Epsom run on account of the soft ground, it almost always pays to pass over those who come here via Epsom, and he may have to wait for another day.
The race appears to be a clash between Gallinule Stakes winner Causeway and the Kempton novice winner Water Into Wine and the argument is whether the former can utilise his experience against a horse who had little more than an exercise gallop against vastly inferior rivals last time.
Causeway is a typical Coolmore product, being a son of Wootton Bassett out of a beautifully bred daughter of Galileo. His profile suggests that the trip could be an issue as he raced at a mile or shorter on his first four runs, but there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and Coolmore have been breeding Galileo to speedily bred mares to produce middle-distance stars for long enough to know how the magic happens.
Causeway stepped up to ten furlongs in the Gallinule, a Group 3 that has thrown out champions like Ardross and Assert in bygone days, but only Leading Light has gone on to much greater things of recent winners and Causeway beat only a useful bunch to score at the Curragh. That said, he did score in the style of an improving colt, repelling the challenge of Zia Zabel with more in hand than a head would suggest. On the evidence of the run, he will stay this longer trip and looks a solid contender.
Water Into Wine has won a maiden and a novice in two starts, both over 1m3f, and has yet to be extended. The question with him is working out how much substance there is beneath the obvious style, and whether it’s enough to justify favouritism here. First of all, I’ll admit he didn’t beat anything of merit at Kempton last time when cruising to an 11-length win; but his victory on debut at Newbury is a better effort to judge him on, and he was less experienced than the colt he slammed into second that day. That colt, Richard Hannon’s Alderman, went on to Epsom on the back of that second-place effort and finished a highly creditable fifth to Christmas Day in the Derby, beating the likes of Pierre Bonnard, Ancient Egypt and Item by upwards of 2¾ lengths. That might flatter him a little but Water Into Wine made him look slow at Newbury and the winner is entitled to take another step forward given he’s yet to be fully tested.
Some are wary of the switch from all-weather to turf for big races, but Newbury proves he’s effective on firmish ground and I’m inclined to take a very positive view of his form, with his campaign reminiscent of the way Lucarno was campaigned for the same connections before winning the St Leger. I think John Gosden has been quite clever to come here rather than the Queen’s Vase as he was likely to find a smaller field, which will help to offset his inexperience. Causeway will be by far his toughest opponent and will not lie down, but I expect Water To Wine won’t need a miracle to maintain his unbeaten record.
Suggestion: 1pt Exacta Water To Wine/Causeway
Tix Pointers: Only the Covid edition messed things up for jollies on the placepot ticket. As the last leg, it might be one in which to bank and lay the favourite for a place on the exchange?
6.10 THE PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)
Presented by David Massey
There’s a fair spread of pace across the course here, although I’d be surprised if anything led up the speedball that is Revival Power from the low numbers. I’m a massive fan of hers, she did me a few good turns last year but it is worth remembering she did get herself a bit stewed up before the Queen Mary last year and her effort fizzled out as a result. If she can keep a lid on things this time around then obviously her chance would increase, but I suspect there are other targets for her in the second half of the season and it’ll probably be a watching brief.
Only two horses with single-figure draws have hit the frame in this in the last five years; compare that to nine drawn 20 or above that have delivered an each-way return (and that includes three winners) and it probably pays to stick with those drawn high. With that, I think Starmade, from stall 30, makes plenty of interest.
So far Starmade has won twice on the all-weather, successful over 6f at Newcastle last time out (third a winner since) and whilst his three turf efforts don’t match that form, he’s only raced on ground described by Timeform as either soft or good to soft. There must be a chance he is going to improve for quicker conditions here, and the way he travels strongly towards the midfield/rear in his races is probably the right sort of runstyle required to win this. I see some 25s around as I type; 20s and bigger looks perfectly fair.
Dickensian, second in the Windsor Castle last year, is more obvious but is worth pointing out all the same. Last year, he was showing a lot of speed in his races and not always seeing them out, so it was interesting to see new tactics employed on his reappearance at York last month, Shane Gray dropping him out and allowing a fast pace to come back to him at the finish. He showed plenty of tenacity to poke his head in front late on, and that form looks strong; the second home, Simplify, is an improver, and third home Aspect Island lost nothing in defeat when finishing midfield in the King Charles III Stakes here on Tuesday. There should be more to come from him now he’s shown himself tactically versatile.
To complete the shortlist, there's nothing wrong with the claims of James Owen's Cherry Baker. Her profile is probably a bit less sexy than a few, but she's nicely drawn, has the right hold-up run style, and it's a case of whether a drop to five furlongs is going to suit. It might, as for all she's been tried over seven furlongs and a mile, her best form has come over six, her record at that trip reading 112; she comes here in cracking form after two good efforts at Chester. It's not hard to see her finishing off well, and she's one you should at least have in all your exotics here.
Suggestion: Try Starmadee/w at 25/1 or bigger, or Dickensian at 12/1
*
That's it from us for Royal Ascot week. As always, we invite you to go solo on Saturday, and wish you all the best of luck. Thank you very much to my fantastic support (Dave Renham, Sam Darby, Gavin Priestley, David Massey and Rory Delargy) and, mostly, thank you very much to you for following along with us. I hope you've been lucky.
Enjoy the rest of the sport!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Cercene_CoronationStakes2025.png318830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2026-06-18 14:08:402026-06-19 15:39:37Royal Ascot 2026: Day Four Preview, Trends, Tips
It's Gold Cup day, or Ladies' Day - or even Thursday, or Day 3. The hump day of Royal Ascot features the showcase event, the Gold Cup, a Group 1 run over two and a half miles. There is, of course, a further trio of top class shermozzles either side of that blockbuster, so let's get to it...
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Soil Moisture: 41%, readings taken on Thursday at 8.30am.
Rails: The rail on the round course is now at full width everywhere. Providing fresh ground today from 9f out to the Home straight
Stalls: Straight Course: Centre
Round Course: Inside
2.30 THE CHESHAM STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
In a change to the running order, the Chesham appears as the first race of the Ladies' Day card, a trappy seven-furlong juvenile heat for Listed honours.
The Chesham cheat code appears to be thus: either a once-raced Aidan that got beat, or one of the top three unbeaten-in-one horses in the market. That would have got you nine of the last 11 winners, one of the other pair being the unbackable Holloway Boy on debut and the other the dual winner Pinatubo. Those winners included 12/1 Snellen and 14/1 Suits You.
Taking that approach aligns quite well with the market, the nominated APO'B runner Aix La Chapelle heading the field. He was easy enough to back when sent off 4/1 on his debut (7f, good to yielding) a fortnight ago, and had plenty to do a quarter mile from home. But the further they went the more inevitable was the son of Justify's victory, eventually pulling away by a widening length and a half. He made up a good five lengths in those final two furlongs and looks the obvious one to beat granted normal improvement.
Richard Hannon sends Aperoll with a similar profile to the favourite. She, too, is a once raced winner from about a fortnight ago, though she was more handily placed when taking a Newbury novice over six and a half furlongs. A daughter of Ghaiyyath, she's a January foal and as such is entitled to a precocity edge on most of her rivals. Plenty of fillies have won the Chesham in recent times, including Bedtime Story (2024) and Snellen (2023) as well as September (2017).
Karl Burke won this race in 2022 with the unraced Holloway Boy - some feat - and he's since further advertised himself as one of the top trainers in the country, particularly when it comes to juveniles. He's represented by Revels, easy three length winner of a Redcar maiden a month ago on his sole start. The second has yet to run again but the third won by almost five lengths on his next outing. This son of Lope De Vega is, unsurprisingly perhaps, owned by a member of the Mars family - Ms L Mars, in fact - and she's another that can obviously step forward. [Proud of myself for resisting all kinds of sugar/confectionery puns there].
Time For The Moon shouted his credentials when blitzing a field of Musselburgh novices by 7½ lengths - yikes. However, that was on his second start so he's less scope to improve than the once raced brigade, and - respectfully - it was Musselburgh and the time was good but not great. Moreover, he's gone from the front in his two races so far, with only last year's winner, Humidity, managing to make all in the past decade. It's not easy to do. Still, he has credentials.
Sea Venture has had the sole start, bolting up by three lengths in a Haydock fillies' maiden four weeks, and she is another unexposed runner. The form awaits a boost, though, with none of the five runners since making the frame; that includes the second and fourth, both beaten more than five lengths on their next starts.
Another son of Justify, Nola Soul, travels across for trainer John Stack. He beat a couple of Aidan's as well as a horse called Chesham, presumably fancied at some point to wind up here; closest to him that day, however, was King Of Cloughan which runs in the Windsor Castle on Wednesday: that clearly will be a line of the merit of the form, with the third-placed horse already having won since.
The most expensive horse in the field is an Amo-owned Charlie Johnston-trained Frankel colt called Pikachu. Named after the cute little pokemon, he was second on debut at Thirsk, behind the more experienced Alfred Wallace - another headed for Wednesday's Windsor Castle - and should improve plenty for that. He's a place player at least.
Suggestion: Aidan won this in 2024, 2021, 2020, 2017 and 2016; but he didn't win in three of the past four years. Aix La Chapelle has a very good chance and I think I'll save on him; but I'm going to have a point apiece on a couple at prices, Aperoll and Revels. Not because I'm thirsty and hungry, you understand, but rather because both bring impressive unbeaten-in-one form to the party and look definite value at around 10/1.
Tix Pointers: Keep it Aidan on A, and unbeaten winners of one on B.
3.05 THE KING GEORGE V STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)
Presented by Rory Delargy
The most interesting angle into this 1½m handicap is the effect of the draw. Logically, on a round course, the uneducated view (including among jockeys and trainers who should know better) is that being drawn close to the inside is a positive, and being drawn very wide is a negative. The truth is very different, as results of races over course and distance, and particularly the King George V, show. Here are the results since 2021 based on stall number:
As you can see, a very wide draw is no disadvantage (such results are borne out on a wider scale) and while those drawn low can and do get involved, they are the ones who tend to require a bit of luck in the run. When the field fans out in the straight, those who come widest tend to end up on the quicker ground and when races are run at a strong gallop as they usually are, those coming late and wide are at an advantage. 2022 was a year where the pace slackened mid-race, favouring those who were well positioned at that point, but it’s a rarity for pace to drop in that way with plenty usually keen to press on.
The pace map suggests that low-drawn horses should dominate the early stages but because those who want to lead are drawn close together, there must also be a decent chance that they get involved in a battle for primacy that produces some overly strong early fractions. Those on the front end can enhance their chances by dapping on the brakes at that point as a relentless gallop will play to the hold-up horses, but predicting mid-race tactics is almost impossible in advance and I’m relying on the pace map which predicts the gallop will be strong.
A strong pace isn’t just an indicator of where in the field the winner might emerge, but confirms that whatever horse wins will have had to show stamina for the trip; on that basis, I’d be keen to exclude those who appear best at up to 1¼m. A key trial for this is the London Gold Cup at Newbury, which this year saw Lost Boys beat Sahara King and Tierra Del Toro. That was over 1¼m and I thought Tierra Del Toro was the one of the principals who would most benefit from the extra quarter mile here, as he took time to hit top gear before staying on best of all in the closing stages. He was without a prep run for that valuable contest, so I expect him to improve a little more for that first outing of the season, and while I’d prefer him to be drawn wider, stall 10 looks a good spot to stalk the leaders while keeping out of trouble. Ralph Beckett’s Lope de Vega gelding is untried at the trip and his half-brother Alcaraz has won only at 1¼m, but their dam is a full-sister to dual Arc winner Treve, which gives plenty of confidence that he will relish 1½m.
Cannes is one who looks sure to benefit from a test of stamina having landed a decent maiden over the trip at Leopardstown last month. That form looked good at the time and has been franked by wins for the third and fourth placed horses since (second yet to race again), while Cannes is likely to do better still as his stamina is drawn out in a well-run race, his dam being a half-sister to Mojo Star, who was runner-up in the Derby, St Leger and the Gold Cup here. I don’t think the Leopardstown contest got to the bottom of Cannes and he remains completely unexposed. Joseph O’Brien had his handicap record at Royal Ascot questioned at the start of the week, but saddling the 1-2 in the Ascot Stakes answered such criticism in resounding fashion. Stall 21 is a cracking position based on recent results of this race and he should have the race run to suit.
Tix Pointers: High draws are where it's been at. One day it won't go that way, but usually that's the counter-intuitive route in Royal Ascot handicaps over 1m4f.
John & Thady Gosden’s Legacy Link seemingly holds all the aces here. Her dam is Frankel’s full sister, and this filly is already building a little legacy (pardon the wordplay) of her own, still looking far from the finished project when winning the Musidora at York, outbattling the smoother-travelling Felicitas; and then her second in the Oaks to Thundering On, where she saw out the mile and a half well enough, another step forward.
She is, on form, the one to beat. But look at the prices of the last five winners; 7-1, 12-1, 13-2, 11-4, 18-1. Not a favourite in sight, and we’ve seen the likes of Kalpana, Al Asifah and Noon Star, good fillies all, turned over after previous good runs in Musidoras, Pretty Pollys and Oaks's. Yes, it’s been a bit of a favourites' graveyard recently, and that gives you hope if you’re taking her on.
Gilded Prize has been made second favourite by the books but it’s hard to see what that's based on. Yes, she was impressive enough when winning a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud back in April; but that form would need improving on, and she looked a bit on the slow side when easily brushed aside at Longchamp last time. This step up in trip might help, but all in all she looks short enough.
Earth Shot is improving for William Haggas and her head second to Inis Mor in the Height Of Fashion at Goodwood looks better after the winner finished third in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly last weekend, a very good run. On the bare form she has a lot to find, but she’s going the right way and her pedigree offers plenty of hope she’ll improve again for moving up in trip, the dam a winner at a mile and three-quarters. I like her profile and she is on my shortlist.
Aidan O’Brien has won this for the last three years with lesser fancied fillies, and Composing fits the bill as far as that profile is concerned. She’s getting a pair of blinkers to try and get her back on track, and that did the trick for Port Fairy a couple of years ago when O’Brien equipped her with a first-time visor. Impressive when rattling off a hat-trick last summer, including in G2 and G3 company, she appears to have lost her way this year; but her last of six at Longchamp last time wasn’t a bad effort strictly on the figures, and given she’s looked a bit short on gears this mile and a half could help. I can’t quite bring myself to put the red pen through her, given her trainer's recent record in the race. I think she might keep drifting and if there’s some 20-1 around on the day, I can see myself having a small win-only bet.
I think, if there’s going to be an upset, then Ralph Beckett’s Lady Roisia might be the one to supply it. If there’s one horse that’s almost cast-iron to be guaranteed to appreciate a step up to twelve furlongs then it’s her: the dam was Oaks winner Talent (also trained by Beckett) and there’s stamina on the sire’s side, too. Badly in need of her first run of the season at Newbury when third to Esna, she’ll strip a lot fitter for that here and I liked her physically when she won at Nottingham at the back end of last year. In a race that keeps throwing up little surprises, let’s hope she’s the latest in that line; at 20-1, I make her the each-way bet here.
Suggestion: Try Lady Roisia each way at 20/1
Tix Pointers: Aidan and Team Gosden have won ten of the last dozen renewals. They were unplaced in the other two though, so maybe leave a trailing leg?
The Gold Cup is historically the centrepiece of the entire Royal Ascot meeting, and chronologically precisely that fulcrum, with 17 races before and the same number after. It might be that races like the St James's Palace Stakes have become a little more fashionable with speed admired over resolve these days, but this is always a compelling watch and frequently the province of the returning champ - who doesn't love that?
This century has given us the brilliant four-time winner Yeats, triple scorer Stradivarius, and dual champs Royal Rebel and Kyprios. Where better to begin, then, than with the defending Gold Cup hero Trawlerman? It's fair to say that I was a little unkind to him in the aftermath of last year's Gold Cup, opining that a seven-year-old couldn't be improving and that he'd been given a very soft time of it on the front end that day.
While there was some truth in my brickbats, Trawlerman went unbeaten in two further races last term, the G2 Lonsdale Cup and the G1 Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. A feature of his wins has been a mid-race injection of pace and then even finishing fractions: in plain English, he gets his rivals out of their comfort zone early and then keeps them uncomfortable.
It's probably fair to say that it was far from a vintage renewal last year, and indeed that the staying crop was below par as a whole. That counts against the dependable but (relatively) limited Sweet William, stablemate of Trawlerman, who possibly doesn't quite stay this far either. He did win the Doncaster Cup over 2m2f and kicked off 2026 with a win in the Sagaro here over two miles. A very likeable chap, he's not on my mind for this.
Of the other golden oldies, Dubai Future stayed on into a never dangerous 3rd a year ago and he's 50/1; he will presumably again be ridden to pick up pieces. And Al Nayyir has been consistent, mainly in defeat and usually at slightly below top class.
Joseph O'Brien showed his talents with stayers on the flat on Tuesday when saddling a 1-2 over the course and distance in the Ascot Stakes, so his Al Riffa is worth a second glance. Now six, he was a Group 1 winner in Germany in 2024, and he doubled his top tier tally when bagging last year's Irish St Leger over 1m6f. Since then, he's been racking up the Avios (and almost £300,000 in prizemoney), with good runs in defeat in Australia, Hong Kong, Dubai and France. This will be a half mile trip increase and he's not certain to stay, but he does bring a level of form few of his rivals can boast.
It's been quite the journey for Caballo De Mar, beaten 15 lengths in a novice stakes this week two years ago - to be fair, the winner was Ombudsman! - and a seven-race maiden before breaking his duck, off 64, in an Ayr handicap in September 2024. What fun connections have had since, as this unfashionably bred and cheaply bought son of Phoenix Of Spain has totted up nine wins via that starter at Ayr, then Southwell four times on the bounce (!), Haydock, Dortmund and Longchamp twice - both Group 1's. Additionally, he ran second in the Chester Cup, the Copper Horse Stakes here last year, the Dubai Gold Cup and in Sweet William's Sagaro. Wow. I do have a niggle that some of those overseas wins were a little below the level needed here, and I suspect Al Riffa will reverse the French form from last time if he sees out the extra yardage.
The other new kids on the block and, aged four with a bit more improvement potentially, are Rahiebb and Scandinavia. Rahiebb is trained by Roger Varian and, after a three-year-old season of knocking on the door - most notably when a neck second to Scandinavia in the St Leger - the more mature four-year-old model was an unequivocal winner of the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup in mid-May. That was 1m6f and he'll go almost a full Wokingham further here, which is the major question mark. His late sectionals certainly lend credence to the idea that he will stay but it's a risk that needs factoring into his price.
Rahiebb's old rival Scandinavia comes here on a five match unbeaten run that started in the G3 Bahrain Trophy last July and has taken in the Goodwood Cup, the St Leger (Doncaster), the Vintage Crop (Navan) and the Saval Beg at Leopardstown. As a result of that nap hand he's a very short price here, but he's not actually stepped forward on his level of form across that quintet of scores. He definitely looks under-priced to me and I'm taking him on, for all that he obviously has a sexy knack of getting the job done.
In the end, it looks a three-horse go between the top trio in the market: Scandinavia, Rahiebb and Trawlerman. Although he still sets the standard, my feeling is that Trawlerman, on seasonal bow and now aged eight, is vulnerable to the more progressive four-year-olds. There was only a neck between Scandinavia and Rahiebb in the St Leger last autumn, the latter finishing well and just failing to get up. With both of them needing to prove they stay this far, the value call is definitely Rahiebb.
I expect that Al Riffa could get into the first four if he stays, and maybe onto the podium. He's clear best of the rest for me.
Suggestion: Back Rahiebb to win at 4/1. Have a look at Al Riffa e/w at 10/1.
Tix Pointers: Another Aidan/Gosden benefit. Probably keeping it simple here as plenty of problems to follow...
4.50 THE BRITANNIA STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)
Presented by Sam Darby
I shared the historic draw and pace data in yesterday’s Royal Hunt Cup preview, so if you want to reference that before having a bet, you’ll find it in the Day Two preview article here. As I am writing this before Wednesday’s racing begins, I have less information than you’ll have by the time you read this. But on Tuesday it definitely looked as though high draws were advantageous on the straight course; it will be interesting to see if that changes on Wednesday. The spread of the early pace could have an impact on any potential draw bias here, so the pace map should be insightful.
The pace is pretty evenly spread across the course - and there looks to be lots of it! Given the straight course tends to favour patient rides anyway, this really could be a race where you want to be held up out back and played late. It goes without saying that any amount of these horses could be well ahead of their marks, such is the nature of these big field 3yo handicaps where pretty much every runner is lightly raced. This is more of a race to follow going forward, rather than to bet on, but that doesn’t mean we can’t back the winner as well! There are two horses that I like in this one. My more favoured pick would be Outback Heat, who was well backed following the final decs on Tuesday. He won a course and distance handicap on his most recent start, coming from last to first. Winning that race before landing the Britannia Stakes is a path this trainer took with Docklands back in 2023 and Harry Eustace also saddled the runner up in this race last year (La Botte). After just three starts, Outback Heat is entitled to improve as much as anything in this field and he beat the subsequent Silver Bowl winner (who reopposes here on worse terms) in that race, alongside some other runners who have placed since in good races. He’s drawn in 18, which might be a bit closer to the middle than ideal, but it does give him the obvious option of switching to the near side. My main question mark is Kaiya Fraser keeping the ride. He’s been on board for all three runs so far, so at least knows the horse well, but I’d have preferred one of the top jockeys. The other one who catches my eye is Wechaad for Roger Varian. He’s a bit more exposed than some of these, with six runs under his belt, and whilst I’m on the negatives, maybe he wants a bit more cut in the ground. He caught the eye on seasonal reappearance at Goodwood though, in a race that is often a good guide for this (2021 winner Perotto took the same route), where he not only did best of those held up but he did best of the high draws, too. Any draw/pace students out there will know how detrimental stall 15 is over 7f at Goodwood, so that effort can be massively marked up. He’s drawn in stall 28, whereas many of the market fancies appear to be low drawn. If the higher drawn horses are at an advantage, like I think they could be, then there should be some really nice value to be had.
Suggestion: Try each way Outback Heat at 11/1, and Wechaad at 9/1.
Tix Pointers: One of the top four in the market has usually won this, but a couple of wacky placepot results involved the joint fifth and joint seventh in the markets being the highest betting rank placed horse. Spread out!
- yet to win at Group level (15 of the last 15 winners)
- an official rating of 103+ (14/15)
- raced 3-7 times in their career (14/15)
- came from the top 4 in the betting (13/15)
- returned less than 8/1 (14/15)
13 of the last 15 winners had won at least one of their last three starts and had finished top 6 in all of those three starts (14/15).
3 of the last 15 winners last raced at Epsom (from just 9 such runners).
In the last 15 years, all 22 runners that had their last start in a class 3-5 race, all 15 horses that last ran in the 2000 Guineas, all 12 horses that last ran in a Group 2 and all 6 horses that last ran on the all weather have been beaten.
Traditionally this is a race for those who missed the Derby due to stamina doubts or those that did run in the Derby but didn't stay. The trends are pretty strong and leave us looking at easy Listed winner Endorsement or Lingfield Derby Trial flop Maho Bay.
By Dubawi out of a Dandy Man mare, Maho Bay is probably not bred to stay, especially since everything in his pedigree ran (well) at up to a mile. He'd looked good when taking a Newmarket novice over ten furlongs in handsome style but stopped quickly over the Derby trip in the Lingfield trial. This step down will certainly suit but he needs to find more than his demonstrated level of form.
The form of Endorsement is rock solid having run a 1/2 length second to Derby winner Christmas Day and filling the same position by the same margin behind Derby third James J Braddock in two of the top Irish Derby Trials ealier in the Spring. He was last seen trouncing his field in a 12f Listed contest by over 7 lengths and is another favourite who has the level required to win this Group 3 with the only question to answer being whether he can perform just as well back over 10f.
Suggestion: Back Endorsement at 9/4
Tix Pointers: Every one of the last 13 winners started in the first four in the betting. Only one of the last eight winners also won last time out. So a fancied runner that perhaps doesn't look like one?
6.10 THE BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)
Presented by Dave Renham
This race was taken off the calendar in 2015 but reinstated in 2020. Hence in terms of trends, I am looking at the last ten renewals, which cover 2011 to 2014 and 2020 to 2025.
Two wins for horses from the top four of the betting, with both being favourite (last two years). Five winners priced between 12/1 and 18/1; the other three were 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1.
4yos have won six of the last ten (60%) from 40% of the total runners. 4yos do have the best placed record (roughly double compared with the other age groups combined).
7yos and older have a poor record win 0 wins and just 5 places from 45 runners.
Seven of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter on their most recent start. This equates to 70% of the winners from just 42% of the total runners.
Draw
The number of runners each year has fluctuated between 23 and 29 so for my draw analysis I am using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail. Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.
Looking at the last ten renewals, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account, so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:
As the numbers show horses drawn within ten stalls of the stands’ rail have had a significant edge in this race over the past ten years. Indeed, last year’s race saw a huge draw bias as the race result below shows:
Now, draw bias can come and go at the Royal meeting, but personally a middle to higher draw would be my preference in this race unless the ground came up soft.
Run Style
In terms of run style 29 of the 40 win/placed runners over the last ten renewals were held up or raced mid division. Hold up horses have the best record when we analyse the PRBs hitting 0.58. Generally, a horse coming off the pace would be preferred.
For a field this size there is a surprising lack of genuine front runners. River King looks the most likely from 14, but it will be interesting to see therefore how quickly they go early.
With a maximum field declared here are my thoughts on a few of them.
Defence Minister – has been unlucky with the draw several times in the past with a prime example being his most recent race, over course and distance. There he was drawn on the wrong side, finishing third of his group but 17th overall. The two runners in his group that finished in front of him both ran well next time so his run was far better than the finishing position suggested. However, based on recent renewals of this race, he could have been unlucky with the draw again as he has a low berth in 8.
Hickory – definitely has age against him in terms of past trends for this race, but with two wins and five placed runs at Ascot he clearly loves it here. Having said that he was disappointing over C&D first time up this season. Was not suited by the run of the race at Sandown last time as it was dominated by horses that were up with the pace that day. Will need a career best to win, but may be worth a look in markets offering lots of places. Has the right type of run style and he is drawn in the middle so has options.
Cosi Bello – Lightly raced four-year-old with just five career starts (three wins, one second, one fourth). Up 2lbs for his seasonal debut win at Haydock in May after which trainer Charlie Fellowes said, "the Buckingham Palace Stakes is the obvious target. I think we’ll go straight there and keep him fresh. The stiff seven will suit him perfectly." Tends to race from off the pace which should be a plus, and he is drawn in 26.
Great Acclaim – Has raced over course and distance three times including when second of 28 last time out. He has been raised two pounds for that effort but his mark of 100 looks fair. His other two runs over course and distance also saw good efforts with another big field second and a 4th of 15. He has a very consistent profile and if excluding his 2yo career he has won six and been placed seven times from 24 starts. Could be well drawn in 23.
The Wizard Of Eye – Beat Great Acclaim over course and distance last time which was his second track/trip success. Raised five pounds for that win and would need a career best at the age of seven to win this. Could be ideally drawn though in 29.
Dance In The Storm – Has had seven runs on the turf with two wins and two placed efforts. Won first time up this year at Chepstow before disappointing at Epsom on Oaks day when fifth of 16. Epsom might not have suited her and if we can forgive that run then she should be there or thereabouts. Looks the best of the very low drawn runners.
River King – Not been out of the first three in five turf starts and has a PRB of 0.91. Comfortable winner from the front at Newbury LTO over 1 mile and likely to press on early here dropped a furlong. It’s hard to win from the front at Ascot but has a clear form chance. Drawn 14.
Suggestion: The draw could play a big part here again, but we can never be 100 per cent sure how that will pan out. In such a big field I am happy to try three against the field. I’m taking 20/1 Great Acclaim and 8/1 Cosi Bello from the higher draws and from the lower draws I will take a bit of a flyer on 25/1 Defence Minister as I have always been a fan of negative draw bias.
And that's a wrap for Ladies' Day. It doesn't get any easier, does it? But it should be another cracking day of sport, and one good winner will apologise for many other wagering missteps.
It's Day Two, Wednesday, at Royal Ascot and we have seven more top class races to watch / puzzles to solve. They are led off by the juvenile fillies but, before that, a couple of reminders...
Reminder 2: we've got a free £50 Tix competition every day. Bet £5 or more into the placepot/jackpot pools via Tix and, if you played the highest ROI ticket on the day, you'll get an extra £50 - on top of the 5% bonus paid to ALL winning bets placed through Tix. Click here to take part
Our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race
(*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).
The going for day two of Royal Ascot, Wednesday 17th June, is: Good to Firm.
GoingStick at 8.30am: Stands’ side: 8.9 Centre: 8.7 Far side: 8.5 Round: 7.6
Stalls: Straight Course: centre Round Course: inside
Rail movements: The rail on the Round Course will be positioned approximately 4yds out from approximately 9f out to the home straight. This will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.
Weather: Dry overnight to Wednesday morning. It is forecast to be generally dry through the week, with an occasional shower possible on Friday. Max temp expected to be between 22 and 26 to Thursday when they could increase further.
2.30 THE QUEEN MARY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Gavin Priestley
Trends
All of the last 11 UK and Irish trained winners had run in the last 50 days.
10 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had won at least one of their last two races.
9 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had won 50% of their races.
11 of the last 15 winners had their last run over 5f (or less).
14 of the last 18 winners were sent off 4/1 or shorter last time out.
8 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners won their last race.
7 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had suffered at least one defeat.
11 of the last 15 winners had run once or twice in their career.
All 33 horses that last raced at Windsor have been beaten.
Since 2003, all 28 runners that last ran on the UK AW have been beaten.
Race Analysis
It's the race that Wesley Ward has had most success in (four wins) and it seems to have spurred a couple of his compatriots to join him on a trans-Atlantic mission this year. With a runner from France also set to line up it gives a truly international feel to the race.
We'll start by removing the maidens, those outside the top 3 last time, those which haven't won 50% of their career races and any that last ran on the all-weather. 11 of the last 12 winners have been drawn 10 or higher (6 of the last 11 were drawn 20+) with the US Speedball Campanelle the only one to recently defy a low draw when coming out of stall 1 in 2020.
If we apply these trends and look for those with a high draw we can reduce the field down to nine possibles.
Wesley Ward runs two with Ruiva subject of a few good reports and apparently his number one hope after trouncing her field over 4 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs. As is usual for the Ward juveniles she made all that day and I'm guessing we can expect similar tactics here from a favourable draw. She's yet to race on turf although Ward assures us she worked fantastic on the surface the other day. Only time will tell if she can handle the start, the surface and a jockey who has never raced outside of North America before.
That's too many maybe's for me and I'm happy to look elsewhere.
His other runner, Shining Moment, was equally impressive when also making all the running at Churchill Downs but she did it on the 5f turf track and that may be in her favour. The booking of jockey Oisin Murphy is eyecatching and I think she'll run a big race at a big price from an even more favourable draw (21).
But the Ward runner was really put in her place on debut by another American raider, MORE CHAMPAGNE, and has 6 1/2 lengths to find with that rival from their encounter on the turf at Keeneland back in April. Shining Moment pulled far too hard that day and set a ferocious pace up front making her a sitting duck as she swung into the straight. It was therefore no surprise to see her fold tamely in the last half furlong or so which allowed More Champagne, who had enjoyed the perfect run through the race, an easy victory as she came up alongside beautifully before quickening away to the line. The front two were miles clear of the rest of the field.
Coming out of stall 14 the Thomas Morley-trained filly should get another fast pace to aim at and, unlike the Ward filly, her jockey, John Velazquez, is no stranger to Ascot with four wins to his name at the Royal meeting. I think she's a cracking each way bet with five places on offer with most of the bookmakers.
Suggestion: More Champagne 1/2pt EW 14/1 (5 places)
Tix Pointers: In the past 11 years, there were four winning favourites and three second picks coming home in front. The jolly placed in two of the other four years, with another second choice making the frame in 2018... but in 2024 we got 22/1 (co 10th fav of 4), 50/1, 50/1. Incredibly, the placepot only paid £916.60 that day, the rest of the results being much more punter-friendly.
High drawn horses have an excellent record, especially on quicker ground.
Formerly a two-miler the Queen's Vase was foreshortened to a mile and three-quarters in 2017, and at the same time was elevated to Group 2 status in recognition of the importance of the staying Pattern for the health of the breed. That decision was instantly vindicated as the first winner of the new version was the mighty Stradivarius, who would go on to carry all before him for the next six seasons.
If hoping for the emergence of another such luminary seems somewhat fantastical, it is a more realistic aspiration that the list of Group 1 winners - including Queen's Vase / St Leger doublers Kew Gardens and Eldar Eldarov - might be extended.
Favoured this time is the Andrew Balding-trained Galiyan, stepping out of maiden company after a solid staying effort at Chester's May meeting over a mile and a half. Three of the last five winners were unraced at two and twice raced at three, so there are precedents. That said, two of that trio won Listed contests on their previous start, and the third was sent off a more agreeable 15/2 when claiming his QV. Galiyan looks very short on what he's achieved to date - he must be really good at home.
There's a bit more form meat on the Limestone bone, Joseph O'Brien's New Bay colt having won the Listed Yeats Stakes last time. That was the same stepping stone deployed by connections of last year's winner, Carmers, which add further to this one's appeal. Limestone has a nice level of experience, which perhaps means he lacks the upside of some of his peers; nevertheless it was a significant step up in form when significantly stepped up in trip for the first time at Navan. He's yet to race on good or quicker.
Aidan rolls the stamina dice with Port Of Spain, a lesser Ballydoyle light heretofore, and beaten in a handicap last time out. In his defence, that handicap was the kingmaker London Gold Cup at Newbury, where he didn't get the smoothest of trips and was beaten four lengths. By St Mark's Basilica out of a Duke Of Marmalade mare, there's a murmur of robustness in the blood lines; mostly, though, this is a trust play: Aidan has a hundred - literally - colts to aim at this race, and Port Of Spain is the nomination. He's got it right six times in the last 13 years meaning a win this time would grant him 50% of the winners over 14 years. Still, I'm having to squint pretty hard, and away from the actual form book to make his case.
Asakir looked all over the winner of the Yeats Stakes before ceding to Limestone late on. Limestone had led the field for more than half the race before three horses went by him; then, in the final quarter mile, Asakir cruised to the front before getting chased down by the winner. The pair pulled eight clear of a fancied APO'B runner and the form looks good. In the back of my mind I'm wondering if a different ride on Asakir could reverse placings with Limestone - at the respective prices, I want to crystallise that image. He is another yet to race on a sound surface and is not necessarily bred for it; but I'm getting out of my lane with that sort of chat.
The stoutly bred Del Maro - by Camelot out of a Maxios mare who herself won the German Oaks - was born to be good. Unfortunately, the numbers on his form profile don't quite match that smart pedigree, yet. The extra three furlongs and a bigger field should place more emphasis on staying power, and that should elicit improvement notwithstanding this will be his eighth start compared with some having only their third. He is another who can conceivably go well.
There's a Royal runner in this field's midst, too. Point Of Law was a clearcut winner of a Newbury maiden last time despite looking very green on his second career start. Always handy, they quickened off a steady early tempo and I'd be inclined to mark up a couple of the beaten horses more than the winner. None of the four to race again from that day has won, the third and fourth both finding one too good since. The Gosden stable won this, as referenced, with Stradavarius in 2017 and also with Gregory in 2023. The latter's profile was not dissimilar though he'd already secured Listed honours by the time he arrived at Ascot.
Still they come. Unbeaten in two Ravenspire runs for the Executors of the Late Sheikh Mohamed Obaid and Karl Burke, and he's probably a tad over-priced for all that he's achieved very little in those two small fields novice scores. And Archie Watson's decent Royal Ascot record means Wareeth - two from three either side of a clunk in Listed company - cannot be wholly ignored. He's bred stoutly and could enjoy this half mile longer trek.
Suggestion: Lots of possibles, including Port Of Spain for which I'm hard pressed to make a case (which normally means I've missed something material). That Yeats Stakes form is probably above average and both the winner and second, Limestone and Asakir, have cases to be made assuming they handle the terra firmer. Of the rest, Galiyan is too short but has obvious potential; and Del Maro could make the frame.
Try 7/2 Limestone for the win, and/or 9/1 Asakir or 14/1 Del Maro each way.
Tix Pointers: Consistently one of the more predictable races at the meeting, with five winning favourites joined by the same number of second favourites prevailing, and a brace of third choices since 2013. Indeed, the longest priced winner bar one was 15/2 (beat the favourite). When Aidan shocked us with 33/1 Sword Fighter in 2016, the 8/1 fourth favourite hit the frame, too.
As well as Aidan (obvs), look out for Charlie A and Andrew B, both of whom have saddled more than a third of their runners into the frame.
3.40 THE DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by David Massey
A bigger field than is normally the case for the Duke Of Cambridge this year, although we did have fourteen runners a couple of years ago. Which was nice.
John & Thady Gosden have won this three times in the last five years so it makes some sense to start with Friendly Soul. Yes, the Mare That Closed Haydock DownTM, or something, thankfully returns here in one piece, and for all her quirks she looked in good form at Haydock before the incident, bowling along happily on the front and yet to be asked to go about her business when the hole appeared, and she was quickly pulled up. Essentially, take Haydock and the Musidora run - when she hung her chance away - out of the equation and you’ve got a very talented mare with some top-class efforts to her name. And that includes a defeat of Kalpana in the Pretty Polly back in the day, lest we forget. Nicely drawn in stall 5, she’ll have the hard-pulling Falakeyah to take her into the race and she looks the one to beat, assuming all is well after that last day mishap.
Blue Bolt has been made early favourite for this. Her best piece of form to date came when second in the Sun Chariot last year, that run capping off a season where she did nothing but improve and gave the impression she’d be even better at four. She didn’t need to be at her best to win the Listed Conqueror Fillies Stakes on her reappearance and she won with plenty in hand, backed off the boards to do so (Kon Tiki, She’s Perfect and Arisaig in behind). She’s clearly smart and, for all she’s bred to get a bit further than a mile, she isn’t short of speed; she is just about the right favourite if short enough on balance, though.
Hold-up performers have had their share of success in this in recent times (think Crimson Advocate last year, Rogue Millenium in 2023 and Indie Angel in 2021) and if they do go a step too quickly then the strong-travelling Catalina Delcarpio looks the one to be with. Her only disappointment (I say disappointing, it really wasn’t a bad effort) came in the Ribblesdale last year when she appeared not to quite see out the twelve furlongs. I think it was that, rather than the firm ground, that caused the defeat, but in any case she looked a much-improved filly when winning the Listed Amethyst Stakes at Leopardstown last month. Responding well to pressure, she took it up with half a furlong to run, and was strong at the finish. There was a lot to like about the way she went about things there, and as long as Billy Lee finds room on her - a low draw could make things a little tricky in that regard - I think she looks the main danger to Friendly Soul.
I do like to try and make a case for an outsider, as you know, but I have to be honest with you here and say that’s proving something of a struggle. I don’t suppose it’s impossible to see Arisaig dropped out the back and Jamie Spencer trying to bring her with a late run but stall 1 is going to make that difficult, a lot of luck will be required. I have a soft spot for Dash Of Azure though, and she did run well enough in the Sandringham last year (a closing fifth at the line) to suggest a mile is within her compass, for all she’s generally been kept to seven furlongs. Stall 13 and Rossa Ryan both look positives, and maybe if there’s an each-way swing with the extra places to be had, it’s her. Watch for her late on the scene.
Selection: Dutch 9/2 Friendly Soul and 8/1 Catalina Delcarpio, or take a wild swing at 66/1 Dash Of Azure
Tix Pointers: John & Thady Gosden three times, and Sr. once in his sole name, have four of the most recent six renewals.
Although four-year-olds have won 12 of the past 13, five-year-olds actually have a superior place strike rate (36% vs 24%) and PRB (0.54 vs 0.5). To wit, aside from a year when the two 5yos were 33/1 and a year when there were none of that age, there's only been a single year when a mare of that age has missed the frame - of course, it was last year. The vast majority of runners are younger, but don't dismiss the fives.
Four jollies got it done since 2013, but only one since 2017. However, the first or second market choice has made the frame every year in that time.
4.20 THE PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Rory Delargy
In terms of pure class, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes is one of the highlights of the Royal Meeting and class tends to come to the fore, with only two winners at double-digit odds since Lear Spear sprung a 20/1 surprise in 1999. Six winning favourites in the last 20 runnings isn’t far behind market expectations, but there is clearly no edge in either backing or laying market leaders blindly.
Ombudsman won this last year having suffered defeat in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes (to the reopposing Almaqam, albeit conceding that rival 3lb), and he arrives here having won that prep this time around, and that despite suffering a setback since scoring in the Dubai Turf at Meydan in March. He is at his best on good or quicker ground, so conditions are again in his favour and he has strong form claims on balance.
The problem that Ombudsman faces here is that he has yet to meet a contender of the calibre of Daryz, winner of last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Well, that isn’t strictly true, as the unfancied Daryz was well behind Ombudsman in the International Stakes at York last summer, with Francis-Henri Graffard’s charge seeming to find the step up to Group 1 company too much after wins in four lesser races since making a belated debut in April last year.
If that defeat seemed to burst Daryz’s bubble in the minds of some pundits, they might have been nodding to themselves when he was beaten again by Croix du Nord in the Group 3 Prix du Prince d’Orange at Longchamp in September; but others sat up and took notice, seeing an improved effort even in defeat and noting that the fast-finishing Daryz would have won in a couple more strides and would have learned plenty from the experience. His supporters had plenty to cheer about when a more battle-hardened Daryz showed up for the Arc and turned the tables in no uncertain terms to prove himself to be a genuine superstar, catching Minnie Hauk with a strong late run and pulling 5½ lengths clear of the field as the pair battled it out.
That was a big improvement from Daryz, and one which could have been put down to the emphasis on stamina given it was his first try at 1½m, so it’s been noteworthy that he has been imperious in two Group 1 wins this season while stepping back in trip, winning the Prix Ganay (1m2½f) by 3½ lengths before scoring by the same margin in the Prix Aga Khan IV (formerly Prix d’Ispahan) when dropped to an extended 1m1f. I was with him in the Arc on the basis that he would be suited by the trip, but I must say he has taken a big leap forward in my estimation, looking to have the measure of his rivals in the Ganay and the Ispahan before unleashing a devastating late kick.
He’s neither a one-dimensional stayer nor a mudlark – Timeform have the going as good for his Ganay win and only a little slower for the Ispahan, and his wins this season have set a remarkable precedent. In the last century, no three-year-old has won the Arc and then gone on to do the Ganay/Ispahan double despite the prestige of those races, and that’s largely because most Arc winners tend to get a little slower with age, or at least better suited to 1½m than shorter; but Daryz is that absolute rarity – a top class middle-distance performer who is getting quicker with age.
*For the record, the Arc/Ganay/Ispahan treble had only previously been completed by two outstanding horses: Sagace (who won the Arc as a four-year-old and took the other pair of races the following season) and Allez France (second in the Arc at three before landing the Ganay/Ispahan/Arc treble the following season).
The prospect of “firm” in the going description is the one unknown for Daryz, but while it’s easy to suggest he’s best on ground softer than good, that is partly down to the fact that French going descriptions almost always err on the soft side. It’s very possible that he might prove even better on quick ground – that is certainly the case for stablemate Calandagan despite that horse’s early wins coming on softer, while Daryz’s most talented half-brother, Dariyan, won the Prix Ganay on ground that Timeform described as good-to-firm. Their dam, Daryakana, also gained her biggest success when beating Spanish Moon on a sound surface in the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase, so I think ground concerns could well be wide of the mark.
Suggestion: Back Daryz at 2/1
Tix Pointers: It's been very close between the four- and five-year-olds since 2013, younger leading 7-6 in wins and 22-9 in win/places... but the junior cohort was much more strongly represented. Looking instead at percentages, which we must, fives beat fours 20.7% to 13.5% on the win angle; but fours beat fives 42% to 31% on win/place, and 56% to 53% on PRB.
Six-year-olds and up were 0 from 18, two places, and a lamentable 11% PRB.
One of the top pair in the market has made the frame every year since 2003.
5.00 THE ROYAL HUNT CUP (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)
Presented by Sam Darby
It feels like it’s always said you want a high drawn hold up horse for races like this, but is that backed up by historical data?
There is no clear advantage from the above, so we need to dig a bit deeper.
This is a bit more insightful. The top seven stalls, based on PRB3, are all 17 or higher, with four of those being no lower than 24. Looking solely at the last ten renewals of this race, five were won by stall 21 or higher, but three have been won by 7 or lower. This doesn’t necessarily prove that no draw bias exists, but it does suggest that the draw bias can change from year to year. The strange thing about the Ascot straight course is that you can be sure a certain side is favoured, and then in the next race, or on the next day, the complete opposite appears to be the case. Last year is a good example of this. In the 2025 Royal Hunt Cup, the 1st and 4th were drawn 32 and 30 respectively, whilst the 2nd, 3rd and 5th were drawn in the three lowest stalls. Then in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f) the next day, the first six home were all drawn 25 or higher. So on the Wednesday extreme draws were favoured (either side) and on Thursday you absolutely had to be on the stands’ side rail. You can go poor very quickly trying to focus on the draw too much in straight course races here, but a very high draw is rarely a big negative. As for pace, the above image shows that wherever you are drawn, being delivered late is a pretty hefty advantage.
It’s always important to analyse the pace map, too. It’s very interesting that many of the early pace angles here seem to be clustered around the middle, with Linwood (16) the most likely front runner and One Smack Mack (13) and Archivist (18) other possibilities. This further muddies the draw waters, as the pace setters might come up the middle, or they could go either side from those draws. From the lower draws, I think the market is correct in making La Botte and Indalo the two most interesting contenders. The former was runner up in last year’s Britannia off just a few pounds lower and since a poor run in the Lincoln, it looks to me as though connections have been looking after his mark for this. As for Indalo, he’s been amazingly consistent and has proven himself in some of the biggest cavalry charges, so his credentials are pretty solid. With the pace setup as it is, I can’t rule out the middle draws, and the one I’d be interested in is Irish challenger Jagged Edge. He’s won his last three starts at this trip, was hugely impressive when winning last time out and he’s another with a favourable run style. From the high draws I really like the look of Blue Brother, but as first reserve he needs one to come out so he can get a run. He was a massive eye-catcher in this race twelve months ago, when getting no run throughout, and having not run since he’s back off the same mark. Rogue Diplomat is one of only two horses drawn higher than Blue Brother and he’s assured of a run. He ran very well against a draw and pace bias in the Spring Cup at Newbury and can probably be forgiven a lesser effort since in France. I do think he might want a bit more juice in the ground, but I’ve seen plenty of horses that enjoy cut run well on fast ground on this straight course. So that’s five horses on my shortlist, which is too many to back.
Suggestion I definitely want to have JAGGED EDGE (16/1) on my side. He’s gone up 9lbs for his latest win, but I don’t see many ‘potential group horses in a handicap’ in the field, and he definitely looks like he could be one. Stalls 15 and 11 have won this in the past six years so he has a massive chance as long as it’s not like last year’s race where you have to be very high or very low. I hope the positioning of the early pace stops that from happening. If BLUE BROTHER (12/1) gets a run, he’s the other one I want to back, but assuming he doesn’t get in I’d take a chance on ROGUE DIPLOMAT at the prices (20/1) as my second bet. The handicapper has struggled to get a hold of him as he often only just does enough, and his Spring Cup run, which has worked out well, was eye-catching enough. The ground wasn’t exactly slow that day either. Any of these could turn out to be badly drawn once the race is run, so I’d be keeping stakes win only, despite bookies paying plenty of places. With that in mind, I’m sure you’ll get even better prices on the day on the Exchanges. I’ll have to leave the low draws. If it’s evident the far side is favoured before this race is run, you’d hope Jagged Edge could tack over from 15 to give us a chance.
Tix Pointers: It usually pays to focus away from the top of the weights and on more lightly raced four-year-olds, ideally held up for a late run. It is a very, very tricky race though, where spreading out seems the only way to go.
5.35 THE KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Fillies' Handicap)
Presented by Dave Renham
The Kensington Palace is a 1-mile handicap open to four-year-olds and upwards for fillies and mares only. It is a relatively new race for the meeting, inaugurated in 2021. In terms of trends, then, with only five renewals there aren’t really enough races to have built up firm patterns; and for the first three years the contest was run on the round course, with only the last two on the straight course. The two straight course races have both shown a high to middle draw bias so it will be interesting to see what happens today. One trainer has done well from a small sample, that being Ralph Beckett. He has saddled four runners from which he had one winner and two others placed.
The pace map for the race looks like this:
Here are some of the main contenders:
Radiant Beauty – four wins out of her last seven runs including a very decent win over course and distance last time on 9th May. Won that from the front and generally runs close to or up with the pace. Has gone up 6lb for that run but her revised mark does not look insurmountable. Drawn 14.
Alobayyah – trained by William Haggas and was an impressive winner on debut on soft ground at Yarmouth in the Autumn of 2024. Her 3yo year was disappointing but she was a real eyecatcher last time when third over course and distance to Radiant Beauty, finishing very strongly after being given too much to do. If she comes on for that run, she will be a big player. Drawn 16.
Stateira – a four-time winner from ten starts with three wins from her last five. Stateira is the highest rated runner in the race having been raised 27lbs since November, and it could be tough carrying that much weight. Drawn 13.
Zgharta – was disappointing at Ascot last time in the race already mentioned won by Radiant Beauty. She was well beaten in sixth that day despite being favourite but looks feasibly weighted if she can put that run behind her. It's interesting that Oisin Murphy remains on board given another runner from the Balding yard he would be eligible to ride. Draw 6 is possibly not ideal.
All Moonshine – yet to race on the turf but has been super impressive on the all weather. Third on debut and three wins on the bounce since. It is difficult to predict how she will perform on the turf for the first time especially having not been seen since February, but Andrew Balding is respected and is one to consider. Jason Watson rides after Oisin opted for Zgharta. Drawn 12.
Song N Dance – yet another horse from the Ascot race won by Radiant Beauty, Song N Dance finishing second. Ridden by the excellent Saffie Osborne and could have a good draw in 19. Looks slightly better value than some of the other horses that contested that Ascot race.
Suggestion: Most of the horses at or near the head of the betting are drawn in the middle (stalls 12 to 16). In races like this I tend to split stakes and at least back two, sometimes three if bigger prices. However, I am drawn here to the top section of the market and therefore I am sticking with one and that is 11/1 Song N Dance. She looks a bigger price than she should be. Back each way with as many places as you can get.
Tix Pointers: Only two of the 23 mares aged 5+ have placed; the other 18 places in this race's five year history were taken by four-year-olds (a cohort which dominate entries annually).
The shortest priced winner was 10/1 (5th favourite) and no placed horse has returned shorter than 13/2 so it's tricky again. Keep some powder dry for these last two legs!
6.10 THE WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
Much to the frustration of some - notably 2021 and 2025 winning trainer Eve Johnson Houghton, though she was far from alone - the Windsor Castle has seen its distance increase from five to six furlongs but, more materially, with a condition that eligibility is only to those whose sire won over seven furlongs-plus as a juvenile or a mile and up at three. None of those flashy pure speed types here, then...
A look at the represented stallions make for odd reading, to be sure. In place of Ardad and Blue Point are the likes of Dubawi, Wootton Bassett and, slightly hilariously, Cracksman. The one sire amongst the entries that makes most sense on traditional readings of such things is Kodi Bear, a getter of legion swift juvies. Unhelpfully, though not unsurprisingly, he is responsible for more runners - four - than any other stallion in the lineup.
Let's kick off with the massive-priced Troublesome Guest, then. A daughter of Kodi, obvs, she made a lovely debut in a valuable novice event at Newmarket a month ago. Drawn very high, as with very low presumed a help, she'd be a dream result for two of the wiliest old hands in town, Messrs Margarson and Egan Sr. I hope she runs very well for them - and can actually see her outperforming her price, too.
Staying high, the Territories colt Ruler's Control moves from a win over five on heavy to six on good to firm. The way he travelled through the race gives hope that he'll have no bother in this melting pot setup and he's another Joseph runner with prospects.
On the other side of the track, favourite Sergei Diaghilev has box two. Trained by Aidan O'Brien - four from 11 with 6f 2yos, two more placed, in the past four Royal Ascots - and ridden by Ryan Moore, the pair have form in that context of 41120119. A son of Wootton Bassett out of a Galileo mare he is a Coolmore archetype, and he justified odds of 4/6 when taking a six furlong Curragh maiden (good) three and a half weeks ago. Assuming low is a fair place to be, he looks certain to go well.
Down the middle - ish - is Controlla, a daughter of Night Of Thunder who started out in stakes company, narrowly failing to reel in the leader in a Naas Group 3. She was a 25/1 chance that day and has demonstrable class as well as the sort of speed and stamina combination needed to get competitively to the line in a race like this. Like Troublesome Guest, she gets a five pound concession from the colts.
Middleham Park Racing have been at it a while now and they know very well what they're about. Two runners here, with two of the foremost trainers of juveniles - including at the Royal meeting - in Archie Watson and Clive Cox. Archie sends Alpe d'Huez, for whom it was all downhill (geddit?) in the Woodcote at Epsom last time. This son of Kodi Bear was staying on at the finish at the Derby meeting and ought to appreciate this stiffer test.
I think Clive Cox could be the best trainer of juvenile sprinters in Britain and we get to test that theory with Boleto, another Wootton Bassett, who did plenty wrong on debut at Pontefract a fortnight ago but still got up under a cute Callum Rodriguez ride. This lad needs to step forward a bundle and probably doesn't have a brilliant draw either, but in Clive and CalRod we can trust.
Lots of others with some sort of a chance that I find it very hard to quantify.
Selection: I'm mainly staying close to the top of the market here. Huge respect for Sergei Diaghalev who may just win, but 5/2 or so in a field of 25 feels wrong. It may not be, of course! Controllalooks a pretty fair each way alternative at 4/1. She brings the best form, though has nothing with which to back it up, and she could be smart. Interesting that connections opted for the newly extended Norfolk against the boys rather than the fillies only Albany at the same trip. In the long grass - the very long grass - are 20/1 Boletoand 66/1 Troublesome Guest, both of which are wildly speculative and should be staked commensurately!
That's Day 2, then. Mostly really tricky, on paper at least. Best of luck wth your Wednesday wagers and we'll be back for Ladies' Day tomorrow.
For most flat enthusiasts, it's the best week of the racing calendar as five days of elite action unfold in the presence of royalty at the 2026 Royal Ascot festival.
There are plenty of domestic runners from the pointiest part of the ability pyramid, alongside a select smattering of international players and a veritable glut of young, unexposed could-be-anythings. Yes, it will be an exciting sensory overload and punting will not generally be straightforward; but winners, where they're found, are likely to reward well. So let's see if we can't shine a light on two or three.
I have enlisted some expert support in previewing the racing from Dave Renham, David Massey, Rory Delargy, Gavin Priestley and Sam Darby, all familiar names to long-term readers of the blog and, crucially, all great judges with their own approaches to solving the puzzle. To round out each day's septet of previews, and as editor across all content, you're lumbered with me, I'm afraid.
To Tuesday, Day 1 of Royal Ascot, then, a perennial feast of Group 1 action, kicking off as tradition dictates with the Queen Anne Stakes, a straight mile G1 race for older horses.
Side note 2: we've got a free £50 Tix competition every day. Bet £5 or more into the placepot/jackpot pools via Tix and, if you played the highest ROI ticket on the day, you'll get an extra £50 - on top of the 5% bonus paid to ALL winning bets placed through Tix. Click here to take part
Our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race
(*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).
Royal Ascot Day 1 Going/Weather News
The going for day one of Royal Ascot, Tuesday 16th June, is: Good to Firm.
GoingStick at 8.30am:
Stands’ side: 8.6
Centre: 8.6
Far side: 8.3
Round: 7.6
Stalls: Straight Course: centre Round Course: inside
Rail movements: The rail on the Round Course will be positioned approximately 4yds out from approximately 9f out to the home straight. This will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.
Weather: Dry overnight to Tuesday morning. 0.4mm rain on Monday. 5mm rain recorded through the past 7 days to Tuesday. Dry, warm day is forecast. It is forecast to be generally dry through the week, with an occasional light shower possible on Wednesday and Friday. Max temp expected to be between 22 and 26 to Thursday when they could increase further.
2.30 THE QUEEN ANNE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Dave Renham
A few race trends for the last 15 years of this four-year-olds and upwards mile Group 1 contest:
Age
4yos recorded 11 wins from 83 runners (13.3%); 31% placed.
5yo have had 3 wins from 58 runners (5.2%); 22% placed.
6yo and up had just 1 win from 36 runners (2.8%); 11% placed.
4yos have provided the most runners albeit from the biggest sample. However, their win strike rate is comfortably the best and their placed performance has also been best.
Market factors
8 wins for favourites, four of which started odds on
Horses priced 11/8 or shorter have won 7 races from just 9 qualifiers. To BSP backing all such runners would have yielded a 40p in the £ profit.
However, since 2018 there have been four big-priced winners – two at 33/1 and two at 14/1.
Course form
Course winners secured 10 wins from 58 runners (17.2%) with 36% placed.
Those without a course win had 5 wins from 119 runners (4.2%) with 18% placed.
A win at the course has definitely been a strong positive over the past 15 years.
Course LTO
9 winners ran LTO at Newbury from 68 runners (13.2%) with almost all of them (65) having raced in the Lockinge. Hence, the Lockinge has been by far the best trial for this contest in recent years, and backing ALL runners blind who ran in the Lockinge LTO would have produced returns just under 50 pence in the £.
Race Class LTO
12 of the last 15 winners raced in a Group 1 race LTO. LTO Group 1 runners have provided roughly 55% of the total runners in the race and 80% of the winners.
Career win percentage
British or Irish runners with career win percentage of 60% or more provided 7 winners from just 22 runners.
Queen Anne Stakes Pace Map
Before we look at some of the leading players, we can see there is not much pace on here, with only one of the nine horses, OperaBallo, having led in one of his last four starts, and he did that just once. Hence, this could be run at a false pace, which often complicates matters somewhat.
This year’s contenders
Notable Speech – fourth in the race last year where things didn’t go to plan. He pulled hard that day, was short of room at the 2-furlong pole, then lost ground going sharply right before the jockey dropped his whip. He was beaten just over two lengths. A year later he comes here as favourite having been in very good form recently, winning three of out his last four races, including the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Lockinge. He is trained by Charlie Appleby and clearly has a strong chance. The slight concern is that he has not been seen at his best at this venue.
Docklands – did this column a huge favour last year having been tipped up each way at 25/1 in the morning. He loves Ascot's straight mile with his record reading three wins, three seconds, a third, and a close-up fourth of 16. Despite now being six, he looks as good as ever based on his two runs this year – a Listed win at Doncaster in March and then an excellent third at Sha Tin in the Group 1 FWD Champion’s mile in April. The only slight negative is that he has a few pounds to find with Notable Speech on Official Ratings. The lack of pace in the race shouldn’t be a problem as last year they went off quite slow and that did not inconvenience him.
Opera Ballo – the second string from the Appleby yard but a leading contender. A regular winner having taken seven of his nine career starts. He won the Bet365 mile at Sandown last time and is joint highest rated in the field with Notable Speech on 125.
More Thunder – This time last year he was running in the Wokingham handicap at the Royal meeting but has since progressed to Group 1 level, finishing second last time to Notable Speech in the Lockinge. He struggled to lay up with the pace early then and gave himself too much to do; if he can sit more handily this time his chance increases, which if the pace map is anything to go by he should be able to do. Further, that was his first run of the season so we can expect him to come on for that.
Suggestion: Notable Speech looks the one based on recent form, but at the prices I’m happy to split a point between two against him with More Thunder and Docklands.
Tix Pointers: The favourite has placed in seven of the last 10 years.
However, in 2018 (15 ran) the result was 33/1, 10/1 (4th fav), 20/1; and in 2019 (16 ran) we had 14/1 (co 6th fav of 3), 20/1, 20/1.
Four- and five-year-olds have won 12 of the last 13 renewals.
Older horses are 1 from 32 with a PRB of only 37% during that time. Four-year-olds have by far the best record.
17 of the last 18 winners had won their last start.
17 of the last 18 winners had won a race at Class 4 or higher.
All of the last 18 winners had their previous run in a Class 4 race or higher race.
15 of the last 18 winners were unbeaten over 6f.
16 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd favourite on their last run.
16 of the last 18 winners had run 1 or 2 times.
14 of the last 18 winners were unbeaten coming into the race.
13 of the last 15 British trained winners had their previous run over 6f.
Race Analysis
If we look for one or two runs and a win last time out we can reduce the field by half and then by removing those that weren't well fancied in the betting last time we can lose a couple more. That gives us a nice shortlist to look through.
Archie Watson won the Coventry in 2022 and on the whole his runners have run well in this race (although all three of his runners last year were unplaced - best performance was 6th at 100/1). If we simply concentrate on his runners that had had just one run, over 6f on the turf which they had won, we see that these types have finished 31220. That's a winner at 8/1 and places at 40/1, 20/1 and 6/1.
Following the same trainer didn't work out for us last year but I'm going to give him another try as his sole entry SIOUXPERB looked very promising when skating home on his debut by four lengths at Yarmouth as the well fancied 4/6 favourite. The Yarmouth race was run on similar ground to what he'll encounter here and the form has been advertised since with the second home, who was a further three lengths clear of the rest of the field, going on to win his next two starts. Those two wins included a decent looking class 2 Novice event at Newmarket last time out which he won by more than three lengths under a 6lb penalty.
His form looks sound and if able to post a similar performance it should give him excellent each way chances.
Suggestion: SIOUXPERB 1pt EW 14/1 (4 places)
Tix Pointers: Aidan O'Brien has won with four of the five winning favourites in the past decade.
During that period, the fav placed only five times with two second favs hitting the board in the other five.
Of the remaining trio of Coventry's, it's been a random number generator of a podium: 2017 saw 11/1, 33/1, 8/1 (jt 3rd fav); in 2021, it was 11/1 (jt 6th fav), 66/1, 25/1; and in 2024 the impossible 80/1, 40/1 (jt 15th fav!), 66/1.
It might be worth playing a few tickets with the some wildness here.
3.40 THE KING CHARLES III STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Rory Delargy
A huge field means the draw will surely influence the result and that’s much the same as last year when stalls 14-17 filled the first four spots in a 20-runner affair (three of the last four spots went to stalls 19-21, for balance, so it’s not simply a case of higher is better, but that smart horses drawn together can help each other in straight-track races).
Last year’s winner American Affair is a great starting point as he was drawn 16 last year and now has an eye-catching berth in stall 18, with speedsters Big Mojo and favourite Overpass on either side. In terms of overall pace, the presence in high stalls of speedy sorts Jakajaro and Mission Central helps fill out the pace profile of the high-drawn group, and it will be a surprise if that speed does not hold up throughout the race.
Not only does American Affair find himself drawn where the best of the pace is in the King Charles III, but we already know he’s best when asked to come late off such a strong pace, so having genuine contenders to set the race up for him means he can have no excuse. He will, in truth, need to be at least as good as he was last year to prevail, and he’s easily forgiven a rare below-par run in the Minster Stakes at York. Jim Goldie has long been a master at getting his sprinters to retain their form well beyond the first flush of youth.
In terms of dangers, there are several obvious ones, with Big Mojo and Overpass unlikely to roll over even if getting involved in a strong gallop. The latter has done much of his running in Australia over 6f, giving the impression that a stiff five might be his perfect scenario at a track like Ascot. His presence on the stands flank counts against those early pacers around him who need to dominate, but if they go very hard then there are some among the lower stalls who will be finishing strongly.
My pick of that half of the field is last year’s Commonwealth Cup heroine Time For Sandals, who will relish a strongly run five here and will be doing good late work. She’s another who can be forgiven her modest run in the Minster Stakes, with 6f on softish ground blunting her speed, especially when short of peak fitness. She appeals as the value danger, and indeed for exotics, while outsider Behike is another for that list having made a big impression at Lingfield. He is very much in the “could be anything” category, and is sure to do better still, for all Newmarket or Goodwood later in the summer may be more appropriate.
4.20 THE ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
Never mind the width, feel the quality... a short field of six for this year's St James's Palace Stakes, the usual rendez-vous point of European Guineas winners. The winners of the English and Irish 2000 Guineas are in attendance, so too the beaten favourite in the French version, but the Poulains victor is a late absentee having caught a cold (or some such) at the weekend. Pity.
No matter, though, because in Bow Echo and Gstaad we have a proper match, with a couple of spicy curve balls in play to boot.
Both the aforementioned graced Newmarket's 2000 Guineas in early May, Bow Echo charging clear of Gstaad by most of three lengths - fully eight lengths back to the third - to stretch his unbeaten run to four in the manner of a generational talent. If that sounds hyperbolic, it might yet be; but the ratings guys fell of their perches with excitement at what they witnessed. Timeform went 131, Racing Post Ratings plumped for 127 and the BHA, racing's official scorer, went 126. These were the best, or joint best, ratings since Frankel's electric performance in the race in 2011.
Gstaad, for his part, franked the form emphatically when coming three lengths clear in the Irish 2000 Guineas three weeks later.
If there is a problem, and there may not be, it's that the depth of both races is highly questionable. Prior the Newmarket race, pundits and ratings outlets alike were decrying the absence of star quality; and when Gstaad lined at the Curragh he was 4/11 favourite, with the only credible rival on market telling (Distant Storm, the distant third horse from Newmarket) running up, against at a respectful distance. The fifth, seventh and ninth from Newmarket have been well beaten since, though the 11th placed horse did win next time out... in a Class 4 handicap at Kempton.
If the form has the substance the ratings lads say it does, Bow Echo ought to win on all known evidence. But if it's been overrated by flattering defeats of sub-standard horses then the door is just ever so slightly ajar for a runner with a different profile. The obvious one on that score is Puerto Rico, whose juvenile level was solid and who disappointed connections in Paris in their Guineas. Still, he did finish fourth that day shaping as though he'd come on for the run: he was handy enough but just got outpaced before staying on at the one pace. The quick ground is an unknown but he was a dual Group 1 winners as a two-year-old (both in France, both very soft going).
Less exposed but more left field and with more to find is Talk Of New York, a four-time raced triple winner. Having started with a five length romp at Kempton he fell slightly short when taking on the Jumeirah 2000 Guineas in Meydan in late February. After that came a three-length score at Newmarket in conditions company before an impressive five length rout in the Heron Stakes, Listed, at Sandown nigh on three weeks ago. That was a progressive effort and, like the favourite, he's got more scope than the rest to again step forward; but perhaps that's fully reflected in current quotes of 9/2.
As a 2yo G1 winner Power Blue deserves a mention. He could be ridden from the front in a race where, unless Puerto Rico is sent on for Ballydoyle, there would be no obvious pace contention; and, with that sprint speed in his corner, he might offer a run for tiny stakes on this turning track - but it's still a very long climb to the line when the fuel gauge is in the red zone.
It'll be a nice day out for the new training partnership of Ismail Mohammed and Jose Santos with their lad, Lord Britain.
Suggestion: I think it's very likely that Bow Echo reasserts his class, but if there's a bet it might be a small 'without the favourite' stab at Puerto Rico whose juvenile form was close to Gstaad's and better than Bow Echo's.
Try Puerto Rico without the favourite for pennies, or perhaps a Bow Echo/Puerto Rico forecast (pays 10.8 with bet365 as I write).
Tix Pointers: Ten of the last 13 winners returned first or second favourite. Of the remaining three, two were third choice, and the jolly was placed behind 10/1 Circus Maximus in 2019.
5.00 THE ASCOT STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)
Presented by Sam Darby
I do love these extreme distance handicaps, even if they are arguably just as unpredictable as races over the minimum trip.
Before I get stuck into the form, we need to have a look at possible draw and pace angles. At the very least they should tell us which horses are most/least likely to be favoured, even if the data can’t be used to completely rule anything out.
The quick takeaway from the above is that early leaders tend to not do brilliantly (judging by the PRB of 0.36) whilst there isn’t much between the other run styles. As for this particular race, it looks unlikely to be a gruelling contest with very little early pace on offer. Ismahane is pretty much the only front runner or prominent racer in the field, so I can see this being steadily run and tactical. That’s not only bad news for those likely to be dropped out early on (and there are a few of those), but I can also see this being an extremely rough race turning for home. A steady pace means a very well grouped field and there are sure to be plenty of hard luck stories, especially with those that get locked in on the rail. That brings me on to the draw data here.
These races are rare, so there isn’t a massive sample size, but the data point towards higher draws being slightly disadvantaged - not a great shock over such a distance on a round course. Perhaps the most telling insight comes from the draw and pace combination data. Again, it's not a huge sample size but it looks as though non extreme rides are great for low drawn runners and patient rides are best for those drawn middle to high. Given the likely pace set up for this race, I’m not massively keen on those likely to be held up so a low draw and prominent ride might be the recipe for success. As for the form book, in a ‘fair’ race the two I’d be most interested in would be Reaching High and Beylerbeyi. Reaching High was well backed for this last year but he never got any sort of run at any stage and he was one of the most unlucky horses at the meeting. He hasn’t run since, so it’s pretty evident he’s been put away to win this race off the same mark. I have two issues with him, though, and they are his price (around 9/4) and, related, the chance he’s unlucky once again. I’d be getting him prominent from stall 8 to give him the best possible chance but I think you’ll find more likely winners at this price at the likes of Ripon and Hamilton this week, so I wouldn't be interested in backing him just to try to get a Royal Ascot winner at any cost. As for Beylerbeyi, you only need to watch his winter runs on the all weather over inadequate trips, off this sort of mark, to know he’s a well handicapped horse. My worry with him is that he’ll be dropped out from stall 16 and he wants a decent gallop to aim at, which might leave him inconvenienced here. He’s halved in price since the final decs and whilst he’s another possible winner, I think the likely disadvantage provided by the run of the race is enough to make me reluctantly overlook him. Simply put, I want a horse who might be able to pinch a bit of an advantage. It’s not easy to predict what will slot in behind Ismahane, the likely front runner, but Kizlyar and Glenroyal may be seen to best effect. Kizlyar won a relatively uncompetitive race in Ireland last time out, but the 2nd and 3rd have finished 2nd and 1st since. He doesn’t have too many ground question marks (often a worry for some of the Irish runners in this) and seems to have a nice mix of speed and stamina. If you can throw out a poor run at Galway last year when turned out again within 24 hours of winning, Glenroyal has effectively won his last three races on the flat. He’s got quite a bit to prove in terms of stamina in the form book, but he’s a full brother to an Irish Cesarewitch winner and a half brother to a winner of this race and it should aid his chance if this becomes a relative speed test for the trip. I think it’s impossible to be confident about the Ascot Stakes as a betting race, but in terms of value I’d be backing Kizlyar at around 16/1 and Glenroyal at around 20/1 (both win only, there are enough question marks to put me off the place market). Reaching High has a really obvious chance, especially if able to get a good early position, and I’ll be kicking myself if Beylerbeyi wins but I just can’t back him in this sadly.
Suggestion: Split a point between 14/1 Kizlyar and 16/1 Glenroyal.
Tix Pointers: In 2015 and 2017 Ryan rode the winner for Willie - both returned fav. No other market leader has won since 2002!
Nine of the 13 winners were aged 6+, though placed percentages are a lot more evenly spread.
Willie hasn't won since 2018, and Ian Willie-ams (sorry) has claimed two prizes since then. Williams and Alan King (as well as the unrepresented this year Hughie Morrison) are the UK trainers on which to focus. Joseph O'Brien ran one (unplaced) in the 2024 Ascot Stakes; five (including 2nd 16/1, 3rd 33/1 and 4th 25/1) last year; and saddles seven this time!
Nevertheless, the worst market rank performance in the past decade was a fourth choice making the frame... until last year when the result was 20/1, 16/1 (6th fav), 33/1, 25/1 - as mentioned three of which were Joseph's, though that doesn't help much this year.
Run as a handicap until 2017, the Wolferton is one of the trappier races at the Royal meeting. Two years ago, Israr won and returned 11/4 favourite; he was the first since Mahsoob in 2015 and, therefore, the first of the non-handicap era. Roger Varian has two wins since 2020 and John (now with son Thady) Gosden has enjoyed five wins and five places from 21 starters. Both are represented this year.
The specific race conditions - that no horse shall have won a G1 or G2 since at least the previous August - makes it one of the few races not for progressive animals; that of course makes it more inscrutable, not less.
Although horses have won from very wide, five of the eight non-handicap winners were drawn 7 or lower. As the PRB3 (average percent of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) chart clearly outlines, inside is better all other things equal.
One thing I did notice when reviewing the run style of placed horses will probably become apparent to you when I share the following string: MMHMMMMHMLMPMMMMMMPHMHMLMPPMMPMM
All eight winners raced midfield and, as you can see, most of the placed horses did, too. The inference, borne out by the victors' odds and doubtless painful memory, too, if you habitually play this race, is that hard luck stories abound and it is very often the best trip that wins. That, clearly, makes life difficult.
Roger runs Enfjaar, a six-year-old with limited mileage. This lad ran fourth in the race last year when enduring a troubled passage from an inside stall. Trap seven is fine and, though he's older than probably ideal, this will have been a clear plan and he comes here off a lovely prep in a similar grade at Goodwood four weeks ago.
The Gosdens run Nahraan, unbeaten in three UK starts and third in a Group 3 in France last September. He lacks a run this season, which is a small negative, but the team know what they're doing (duh) so he can be expected to be plenty fit enough. I'm far from convinced by his form, however, for all that he retains obvious upside.
Last year's winner, Haatem, has an obvious chance again. Drawn 2, we know conditions suit and he backed up his Wolferton score with a good third in the Summer Mile over a trip shy of optimal. Given what looked an obvious sighter in the same Goodwood race contested by Enfjaar last time, he's a Wathnan wunner with weal pwospects.
Another string to the Wathnan Wolferton (enough with the W alliter-wation alweady!) bow is King's Gambit, third in the race a year ago. He ran a nice race from an unpromising position at Newmarket on his '26 debut before blowing out completely at Chester three weeks later. That was a too bad to be true effort but his typically held up run style may be suboptimal with so many mid-pack runners with gear changes ahead of him. No better man than Jamie for this gig, for all that the straight track is his muse.
Charlie saddles a couple at prices that look the types to be competitive in a race like this. The first is Ancient Wisdom, who will don first time cheekpieces in his quest to convert some consistent Pattern level form into a win. He'd probably prefer a bit more juice in the ground though he did win his novice on good to firm back in 2023. He's run 222 at ten furlongs, in G2, Listed and G3 company, and he'll probably settle midfield and hope for the gaps from stall 3. Billy Loughnane will be steering.
William Buick opts for Arabian Light, fourth in the Brigadier Gerard (G3) on his UK seasonal debut. He ran on well there having never been put in the race after missing the kick, and does have some solid upgrade figures to get him out of any pockets after the home turn.
The filly Survie is interesting. Although there are plenty of options for her sex, connections have opted to take on the fellas and Ryan will ride for connections of connections (Mrs Doreen Tabor, no less). She - Survie, not Mrs Tabor - has been mixing it in the best company: in the past twelve months she's run third in the Pretty Polly, second in the Prix Jean Romanet, fourth in the Prix Vermeille and third in the Neom Turf Cup in Saudi Arabia - all of those Group 1 races.
This is a sizeable step down then, though she was a well beaten third in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket when last seen. There was also a stable switch at the turn of the year - from Nicolas Clement to George Boughey - and this former G2 winner and multi-G1 placer has a class edge if she's, erm, man enough against males. There is a slight question mark about the ground, too; her best form is with some cut and that last day clunk was on similarly good to firm terrain as she'll encounter here. If not for that, I'd have fancied her chances.
It pays to respect anything Francis-Henri Graffard brings over, but Map Of Stars has looked decidedly out of sorts since running well in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes over the same course and distance at last year's Royal meeting. Similar respect comments apply to Joseph O'Brien runners - he seems to be operating at another level this campaign - but his pair have car parked in 14 and 15 of 16 which greatly tempers enthusiasm.
I'm not seeing the case for making Wimbledon Hawkeye a single figure price even if it was a badly needed prep race last time. It could be argued that his best form is over ten furlongs on quick ground, so there's that; but it's not easy to see him reversing Sandown form with Arabian Light, particularly from stall 13. Not without a chance but looks short enough to my eye.
Ditto Ghostwriter, making his debut for Kevin Philippart de Foy and his first run since last year's Royal Ascot when he was third in the Hardwicke (1m4f G2). He has back class and this looks his trip, but it'll be a heck of a training performance after 360 days off the course.
Suggestion: As you'll have gathered it's a messy old race. I'm going to split a small stake three ways: I do quite like Arabian Light (20/1 Coral) and expect he'll step considerably forward from his prep run. I also feel like Enfjaar (12/1 Coral) has a chance to redeem a difficult transit a year prior, and I can't resist a tiny bit on Survie (14/1 Hills) despite the going concerns. Very far from confident with any of those, it should be said.
Tix Pointers: Only two winning favourites and one second pick since 2013.
However, nine and a half jollies have hit the frame, the wrong joint fav for placepot purposes placing in 2024.
They were joined by two second picks, a third choice and two fourth in. Probably still need to spread out a little in the 'lucky last'...
6.10 THE COPPER HORSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)
Presented by David Massey
When I watched Klassleader beat Sing Us A Song in the Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap at York last month I was convinced I’d seen a very strong piece of handicap form, much as I had when I witnessed Merchant winning a similarly competitive York handicap the season before. William Haggas loves sending these potential blots to York - we saw another at the weekend with Extremely Zain - and the form from those races almost always works out well.
So whilst we aren’t seeing Klassleader here (and I'd not be shocked if his next outing was in Group company) we do get Sing Us A Song, and I make him the one to beat. He needed his first run of the season at Epsom when third to Night Breeze in the Metropolitan, the track possibly not suiting him either, and showed the benefits of that when going to York last month. He made a lot of the running there, doing plenty of the donkey work and never given a moment’s peace from Will Scarlet on the front; when you think that, at the line, Will Scarlet was some 17 lengths behind Sing Us A Song, it shows what an excellent shift the latter put in. He’s probably been beaten by a very good horse and the 2lb rise he got for that looks lenient to my eyes. James McDonald takes the ride here.
That’s because James Doyle jumps Wathnan ship to their other contender, Valiancy, who is the Haggas representative. He did nothing but improve as a 3yo, and started this season on the right foot, successful over 13f at Hamilton and barely coming off the bridle to win. He was put up 8lb for that, which looks fair, but if you think James Doyle never chooses the wrong Wathnan one, you only have to go back a year to recall Fallen Angel finishing third to Crimson Advocate in the Duke Of Cambridge to find some evidence of that. McDonald was the beneficiary that day so, with apologies to the Doyler, here’s hoping history repeats itself…
I will be having a saver - and a reverse forecast - with Daiquiri Bay though, because if he wins, having convinced myself there’s a big 14f handicap in him for over a year now, it might just ruin my week. I somewhat fell for him after he won at Chester last year, amazed that one his size was able to handle the Roodee's tight turns as well as he did, and when he turned up in the King George V Stakes here last year, was sure he was going to run a big race. Eighth doesn’t tell you how well he actually ran, the trip just looking on the short side, and a third in the Melrose at York later in the season backed up that impression.
Gelded last autumn, he came back to run a career best when beating Gamrai at Newmarket over a mile and a half in May, stamina once again looking his long suit, and I feel a step up to this trip can only be a plus point. A real trier, which is always half the battle, he’ll have his conditions and can go well.
Suggestion: Back Sing Us A Song at 17/2, and/or Daiquiri Bay at 7/1. Maybe even try a small stakes reverse forecast.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/royalascot2017_gates.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2026-06-15 12:37:042026-06-16 13:00:56Royal Ascot 2026: Day One Preview, Tips
I’ll be missing the whole of Royal Ascot this week, so the freshly cleaned morning suit will remain on its hanger in the wardrobe, writes Tony Stafford. But the reason for it - ten days’ puppy watch while the beloved takes an educational language trip to Italy – brought home to me yet another reason why the UK is rapidly becoming the nastiest, most cynical and rapacious country in Europe
It’s long been annoying that Stansted airport – other airports are similarly greedy - charges a not inconsiderable amount just for dropping off a passenger at the Terminal. On Saturday, something since my last visit appeared to have changed.
I had never noticed directions to free drop-off – involves a bus – but this time I did. Anxious for a quick departure though, we made our way directly to the Terminal knowing a payment was needed. All my previous visits had involved paying by card at the end of the road after the Terminal but this time, all there is to see is a sign saying, “don’t forget to pay by tomorrow.”
At 3.30 am I jolted awake – “payment!” Trying to get on the right site, my bleary eyes were drawn to “airport-service.co.uk”. I went through the steps and was shocked to see an overall charge of £26, £10 for payment and £16 additional for “service”. So, £26 for a one-minute slide through.
I knew I’d never paid even as much as £10 before and luckily, I was sufficiently awake to hesitate before pressing the button. I scanned the page again and noticed somewhere – “there are cheaper ways to pay this charge” or something of the like. I think it’s only when you get as close to paying as I had that this message appears.
“Airport-service.co.uk” was close enough to the top of the list that all drop-offees must visit - in second place behind the airport’s own payment site. The skilfully worded legend must draw many equally initially gullible people as me every day. Just while I was there, there was a non-stop succession of cars and taxis unloading. Nice work for the airport whether it was on their site or on that of the oh-so-helpful “Service” crowd, that no doubt passes on the tenner and pockets the rest.
There has been much discussion about the damaging effect of the internet on under-16s and the possible moves to ban them from using it over the past few days. How about a more general cleaning-up so that companies like Airport-service.co.uk are no longer allowed to fleece the public with such bare-faced misdirection?
So you’ve guessed. I’m annoyed to miss the five racing days of the year that I anticipate above all others – even more so than those two lovely spells at York with Mr and Mrs Cannon.
Those of you who can go will have a first-day feast in the clashes between the Charlie Appleby pair of Notable Speech and Opera Ballo and the William Haggas-trained More Thunder in the Queen Anne Stakes, and then the rematch between the 2,000 Guineas 1-2 Bow Echo (George Boughey) and Gstaad (Aidan O’Brien) in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
The lure of Royal Ascot means that in both races there are talented horses waiting for a slip-up from the anticipated principals. The Queen Anne’s straight mile has been the source of a host of surprises, not least when Brook got the race in 1974 (I was there) upon the disqualification of the first three finishers. Docklands’ success at 12/1 in the race last year ought not to count as one of those.
Harry Eustace’s six-year-old has never been out of the first four in seven runs on the track and that sole fourth place was close up and barely a length behind the 100/1 winner Cicero’s Gift in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day over the course and distance last October. Since then, he has been clocking up the air miles and annexing foreign currency with a series of good runs in the Far East, either side of an easy win at Doncaster in March.
Again, though, has he the resources to withstand the sort of acceleration that the 2024 2,000 Guineas winner Notable Speech can unleash? The latest version of that came with a devastating burst to win a very competitive renewal of the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury a month ago.
Charlie can back him up with the seven-time-winning (from nine) Opera Ballo, whose demolition of Field Of Gold in the bet365 Mile at Sandown elevated him into an elite category.
Then there’s More Thunder, from the William Haggas team and the one singled out by Tom Marquand as the pick of his stables’ riches over the week. Haggas comes into the week in form, again with some spectacular results from his handicappers (really?) over the past few days.
I read an article quoting my old pal Kieran Fallon suggesting that maybe his son Cieren (different spelling - and accent!) could make a challenge for the jockeys’ title with Oisin this year. If he keeps getting on the right Haggas ones – he did on Saturday at York while Tom Marquand was messing around at Sandown, and had the pleasant task of a steering job, even after repeated blockages on his way through on Extremely Zain in a modestly-endowed for the day seven-furlong handicap.
Runing off 93 in a 0-95 handicap after two wins from two, Extremely Zain was the proverbial Group horse running in a handicap, except he was more probably a Group 1 horse dancing though a handicap. I don’t now how the handicapper was expected to put a figure on his initial wide-margin debut win and then narrow second victory in a Newbury novice.
He must have thought he was safe with 93. One hundred and three wouldn’t have made much difference. The much more valuable six-furlong sprint will seem – when it appears on the screen as a result or on paper if anyone still reads form in that way – much more closely-fought.
The truth is that Zac Lloyd, son of English-born but top Australian jockey Jeff, had everything well under control in that big field. Thunder Call was on 85. He’s another almost sure to get to three figures with a couple of well-chosen and remunerative stopping points along the way.
The rematch between Bow Echo and Gstaad will be the main item for many. At Newmarket, Bow Echo comfortably had the measure of Gstaad while both had the rest of the Classic field miles behind. Gstaad went on to win in Ireland but, with Bow Echo enjoying a steady build-up under Boughey’s single-minded approach, it’s hard to see how this unbeaten colt could be relinquishing his position at the top of the miling tree. I can’t wait to see him get his hands (hooves) on the older bunch.
In the far-off olden days, they would have had a runoff over four miles to decide things later in the day.
Talking of history, one of my favourite races down the years has been the Ascot Stakes. This year, the 20 runners include one from France, six from England and 13 from Ireland, including seven from Oaks-winning trainer Joseph O’Brien. Where have our staying handicappers gone?
James Owen does run one and I’m sure he wishes the lower-rated Carlton could have been high enough to get in; maybe he would have without the Irish logjam. He’ll probably run on Saturday in the level weights and slightly longer Queen Alexandra. The way he finished in the Chester Plate suggests he’ll stay the trip. Get your topper and tails ready, Mick!
I often sound off about handicappers, but in going for one of the non-Joseph Irish contingent, I admit the task in assessing a horse with one win on debut over 1m4f, a third place over 1m6f behind fellow Stakes entry Kizlyar (O’Brien), and then, from his mark of 91 from two outings, a smooth win last time over one mile, is a tricky one!
Now trainer Henry De Bromhead is asking his five-year-old Tim Toe to travel two and a half times as far. Champion Hurdles are one thing, but Henry also loves to go for the posh pots on the flat and this would be a splendid addition to his lengthy jumps honours board.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/RoyalAscot_marco.jpg320839Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2026-06-15 05:40:372026-06-15 05:42:31Monday Musings: Nasty Business
Royal Ascot 2026 is less than a week away, writes Dave Renham. It's obviously one of the biggest meetings of the year and it is one of my favourites, in my top three along with Cheltenham and Goodwood. In this article I will delve into Royal Ascot results data going back ten years (2016-2025) in preparation for the upcoming five days of the festival. I will be looking at some areas I have not previously publicly examined in depth, so I'm excited to get cracking. Profit/ loss figures have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission.
Last year For Royal Ascot I looked at Group 1 races and in 2024 I focused on the mile handicaps. In this piece, as the title indicates, I am going to look at a variety of angles. Let’s get started.
Royal Ascot Draw Bias
Straight Track Drawn Bias (up to a mile)
Where horses are berthed in the stalls often has a big say in certain big field races on the straight track. Below are some recent examples, starting with the 2023 Sandringham Handicap run over a mile. The first nine runners home, along with their post positions, were:
There was a clear high to middle draw bias in this race with eight of the first nine home, and all of the first seven, racing stands’ side. Not only that several of these runners were big prices with a 33/1 second, a 66/1 third and a 50/1 in fifth.
The next example occurred in 2024:
This renewal of the Buckingham Palace Handicap, run over a furlong less than the Sandringham, again witnessed a very substantial bias in favour of high to middle berthed runners. The first ten home were drawn 18 or higher and all raced stands’ side. And the second and third placed horses were 28/1 and 25/1.
Last year's edition of the same race saw a near carbon copy occur as the result below shows:
The first four home exited from the highest five stalls. Indeed, it should also be noted that the 2023 renewal of this contest also favoured high to middle drawn runners (best finishing position of a horse drawn in single figures was ninth). Based on these recent races, when they line up in the Buckingham Palace Stakes this year it will be tempting to completely ignore those runners drawn low.
However, although we get some handicap races on the straight course that show a significant draw bias, when we look at all such races over the past ten years, the draw breakdown by ‘thirds’ are probably more even than might have been expected.
Lowish draws have won the smallest percentage, but I must admit I had expected a figure at least five percentage points lower. Middle draws have been the most successful in terms of wins at least, perhaps because plenty of the big field races are contested down the centre of the track thus meaning no lost ground manoeuvring for position.
Of course, we can view this draw data in a different way by looking at Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB). This potentially gives us a more accurate picture as it considers all runners in all races, not just the winners. Here were the splits across the 59 races:
This is more the type of pattern I was expecting with high edging it over middle and low a few points behind. 46% of rivals beaten on a sample this size is material: it's quite tough for the low drawn horses.
Royal Ascot Round course Draw Bias (1m4f)
If you were thinking draw bias only has the potential to impact straight course races, think again. Over 1m 4f we have seen a strong draw bias, albeit from a smallish sample of 20 handicaps run over this trip over the past ten meetings. Let me share the win splits by third of the draw first:
Low drawn runners have struggled, winning just three of the 20 races even though they ostensibly have the shortest distance to travel having been drawn closer to the inside running rail. Meanwhile, high draws won half of the sample races, with seven wins for the middle third. If we focus on the four lowest drawn horses versus the four highest drawn horses, we get this dichotomy:
These numbers are quite powerful and are at least partially corroborated by the PRB figures:
Based on these stats, it is a challenge to be berthed in draws one to four, perhaps because one either has to use petrol to hold a position or else take back and ride for luck buried in the ruck. Middle to high draws hold sway with 13 of the 20 winners coming from the top half of the draw.
OK, moving on from the draw let’s now look at...
Odds Movement at Royal Ascot
Early Morning odds compared with Opening Show odds
One would assume market movements at Royal Ascot differ slightly compared with your average meeting. I was expecting the early morning odds (EMO) for most runners to be more accurate than usual, for example. Below are the percentages for horses that lengthened/drifted in price from EMO to Opening Show (OS), those that shortened, and those that stayed the same price. For the record, the EMO prices were taken from around 9.30am and I have used William Hill odds. The OS odds are based on when the market became ‘live’ so usually around 15 minutes before the start of the race.
These figures are very different from the figures for all flat races. The control group of 'all UK flat races' saw 52.6% of horses lengthen in price, 36.4% shorten and 11% stayed the same. Hence, at Royal Ascot the market sees far fewer horses lengthen in price with their overall numbers similar to those that have shortened. In addition, far more horses have remained at the same price. Ultimately, I guess this is what we should expect – more accurate morning markets meaning less fluctuations during the day; and, perhaps, fewer horses defensively priced early in the day.
Opening Show odds compared with Starting Price
What about the price shifts in the minutes before the ‘off’? What type of changes do we see from the Opening Show on course to the final SP?
More horses remain at the same price than those that either shorten or lengthen/drift in price. Again, these figures differ markedly from the norm – in flat races as a whole, around 42% of runners drift in price, 24% remain the same price, while around 34% shorten. For those punters who bet close to the ‘off’, these stats will be useful to know.
There is one more comparison I would like to share before moving on. In all flat races horses that were clear favourite at early prices remained favourite at the off around 63% of the time. At Royal Ascot, more early morning favourites have retained favouritism at the ‘off’ than has been the norm with their figure standing at 73%.
Royal Ascot: Exchange Markets
BSP prices
I wanted to take a quick look at Betfair SP (BSP) to see if there has been a price band that offered some value. In Class 1 races the sweet spot seems to have been between BSP 5.0 and 10.0. This price grouping has seen 79 winners from 493 (SR 16%) for a profit of £60.67 (ROI +12.3%). Narrowing these Class 1 races down to the cream of the crop, the Group 1s, horses priced BSP 9.0 or lower has been the area to totally focus on. Backing all these runners blind would have seen us make a 16p in the £ on investment. Quite incredible, really.
In handicaps, the 5.0 to 10.0 band which was positive for Class 1 races was far from optimal here, producing just an 11.1% strike rate (27 winners from 243) for losses of £40.38 (ROI -20.3%). The best value in the handicaps was with longer priced horses – primarily those between 17.0 and 60.0. However, the strike rate is down at 4.5% across this huge cohort and hence finding the right horses within this odds bracket would have been tricky to say the least.
In-running betting/trading
Roughly 20% of all money bet on a horse race happens in running. At Royal Ascot, with competitive races, this percentage may edge up a point or two. I analysed some Royal Ascot in-running data in relation to ‘dobbing’. Dobbing or ‘DOB’ means ‘double or bust’. Essentially, dobbing is an in-play trading strategy employed by some traders where they are looking to double their original stake if their trade succeeds. Conversely, if the trade/DOB is unsuccessful they ‘bust’ or lose their stake.
I have written about dobbing before but for those who have not heard of it, I will offer a quick worked example. Let us imagine we back a horse at 10.0 for £10; in order to create a potential DOB we try and lay the horse at half the odds for double the stake – so we set a lay at 5.0 for £20. If the horse hits 5.0 or lower in running, our lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result we will win £10 (less commission).
The basic mathematics behind it are shown in the table below:
For dobbing to be profitable long term, we are probably looking to have a success rate of around 53% or more. This figure has to be a bit higher than a 50.1% baseline as we need to take commission into account.
Scene set, here are some Royal Ascot dobbing data. Mainly, I wanted to see if the price of the horse made a difference. Below is a graph that shows the dobbing percentages for different BSP price bands:
Horses priced under BSP 2.02 cannot ‘DOB’ hence why the lowest price band starts at 2.02. Horses priced between 2.02 and 4.25 have got close to a 50% dob rate, but the rest have been well below the type of figures we would be looking for to make a profit.
What about the distance of the race? Can that make a difference?
The graph clearly shows that the longer the race at Royal Ascot the more chance a horse has of dobbing. The longest distances of 2 miles or more have hit over 45% but still some way short of that 53% figure we would be looking for to edge towards profit.
If we combine the best BSP price band of 2.02 to 4.25 with races 2 miles or further, we would have hit a 65% DOB rate. However, before we get too excited this comes from a small sample of 23 runners.
Finally, on the in-play front, it should be noted that 80% of all winners traded higher than their BSP in running. So, if as a punter your preference is betting BSP, it may be worth considering setting pre-race a slightly higher figure than the expected BSP for a small proportion of your overall stake. For the record 39 of the 40 winners of 1-mile non-handicaps traded higher in running than their BSP.
Royal Ascot Trainer Form
Top Trainers by Win Strike Rate
Before closing, I wanted to review some Royal Ascot trainer data. With the level of racing being so competitive it is difficult for even the very best trainers to be consistently successful, and the highest win strike rate for any trainer who has had at least 50 runners in the past ten years is just 13.5% - not surprisingly it’s Aidan O’Brien. He has saddled an impressive 48 winners but from 355 runners.
John Gosden, and now with son Thady on the licence, has been the best of the British with 32 winners at a strike rate of 11.5%. No other trainer has saddled more than 20 winners and only three have hit double figures, namely Charlie Appleby (15), Andrew Balding (12) and Roger Varian (11).
To avoid big odds winners skewing bottom lines, let me share the trainer results for horses priced BSP 24.0 or less. To be included a trainer must have had at least 25 qualifying runners:
Seven of the 19 managed a profit but for some - notably Appleby, Beckett, Cox, Hannon and Joseph O’Brien - it has been hard going in terms of returns. Even Aidan O’Brien would have lost us more than 15p in the £.
Top Trainers by Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB)
It is also worth sharing the PRBs for these trainers with BSP 24.0 or lower priced runners and these were as follows:
One trainer in particular who we can say has been unlucky is Clive Cox. He has by far the best PRB of any of the trainers at 0.73, but has managed just three winners from 32. That PRB figure, though, does nod to the fact that Cox saddled ten placed runners as well as the trio of winners, and backing all of his Royal Ascot runners to place would have yielded a 25p in the £ profit on the Betfair Place market.
Specific Royal Ascot Trainer Angles
There are some additional trainer stats I wish to share based on the BSP price cap of 24.0.
The Gosdens in Group 1s have secured a near 30% strike rate thanks to 13 winners from 44. Backing all runners blind would have yielded a return of 64 pence in the £.
Meanwhile backing all Aidan O’Brien runners priced 24.0 or less would have seen significant losses of over 34p in the £.
Charlie Appleby has a poor record when saddling the favourite at Royal Ascot with just three winners from 21 (SR 14.3%) for hefty losses of £13.49 (ROI -64.3%).
Roger Varian has had an outstanding record when his horses have started favourite, winning 61.5% of the time thanks to eight winners from 13. Backing all Varian favourites to BSP would have seen an excellent profit of £20.31 (ROI +156.3%).
Another poor Charlie Appleby stat is that in handicaps he has had just one win from 43 with losses of 84 pence in the £.
Keep an eye on NH guru Willie Mullins when he sends a runner here that raced in a NH race last time out. Of the 23 such entries, six have won (SR 26.1%) for a profit of £11.94 (ROI +51.9%). Backing these types to place on Betfair would have yielded a further 20p in the £ return.
Royal Ascot 2026 promises to be an absolute treat for us racing and betting fans. Hopefully there is something in this piece to help you get your nose in front whether you're a backer, a layer or a trader. Good luck to those who will be punting during this meeting. I'll be sharing the race previews with a strong panel of experts next week before returning with my regular column the following week.
How many races do you think have been started from stalls in the UK since the obscure rule change which caused such havoc in the Epsom betting ring after Christmas Day won the Betfred Derby on Saturday, writes Tony Stafford.
I would suggest thousands, but that woke alteration allowed the Epsom stewards to declare never-in-the-hunt Betfred Derby favourite Benvenuto Cellini a non-runner for getting his leg over (rather stuck in) the stalls. No doubt he’ll be getting his leg over in the proscribed way later in life. Yes, this weekend we saw the first running of the Woke Derby.
Imperfect starts have always been a part of racing. While on this very public occasion the finicky stewards decided to intervene after the fact, multiple examples of slow starts historically have been ignored.
Often on the flat, starters let the fields go, not noticing when one or more horses might be in various states of discomfort in the stalls, their jockeys imploring “wait sir, wait!” Either they do or they don’t, tough! How many times have we seen hoods coming off too late? What an unseemly dish to set before the King!
Then while jumping starts at the workaday meetings are allowed to go off where the jockeys want to be placed, at the big very public and most important meetings like Cheltenham and Aintree, again fussy officialdom often ruins the race. Multiple false starts and unsatisfactory standing still departures immediately end many horses’ chances before they go a yard.
Ahead of Saturday’s controversy, Christmas Day continued the theme that you can never ignore Aidan O’Brien’s “other runners” in the Derby. It proved a truism once more, the 7/1 winner attracting far more interest in the market than the favourite and even trumping presumed second choice Pierre Bonnard, a laboured seventh under Christophe Soumillon.
The key to finding the Derby winner is 1) with now ten of the last 15 winners (67%) of the race, it must be an Aidan horse. 2) if you ignore Ryan Moore who now has missed out on five of the last seven Coolmore winners, find a jockey that’s never got near winning it before, often one that’s never ridden in the race!
Step up Ronan Whelan. Like so many, Aidan included, Whelan spent plenty of time in his younger days with Jim Bolger. This is his second year as back up to Moore and super stand-in Wayne Lordan, and Epsom on Saturday was his ultimate reward.
It happened for Lordan with Lambourn last year and Lordan it was on the fourth O’Brien runner Action, who set the pace on Saturday with Christmas Day at his elbow. The other two Coolmore runners were held behind the nice even pace that Lordan excels at.
Into the straight it wasn’t long before Christmas Day took the lead, edging into the middle of the rain-softened ground and drawing away much as Lambourn and that other surprise O’Brien winner of the modern era, Serpentine, did in 2020. The difference this time was the ground. It had completely obliterated Calandagan in the £1 million Coolmore Coronation Cup earlier, won in spectacular fashion by George Scott’s Bay City Roller, and several in the Derby field were similarly inconvenienced.
Not Christmas Day though. His sire Camelot was an 8/13 shot when winning the race in 2012, the first of that run of ten in 15, with Joseph O’Brien in the saddle. Having beaten French Fifteen at Newmarket, it just needed the St Leger for him to emulate Nijinsky 42 years earlier. Encke has his name on the historical record but nobody believes him the moral winner.
With 14 runners contesting the prizes which went down from £1 million for the winner to £20k for tenth, there wasn’t much room for horses’ being eased, apart that was for the toiling Benvenuto Cellini who passed the post miles behind all bar last home Poker.
Though nothing ever seemed likely to catch the winner, with Maltese Cross, Joseph’s James J Braddock, and Bay Of Brilliance the next three home, I enjoyed seeing Julie Wood’s colours flashing home in fifth. Alderman earned his owner £80k, not bad for a horse rated only 83. Saturday’s 100/1 shot is in for a big hike tomorrow, but the thrill that the Richard Hannon colt gave her a day or so after her birthday is irreplaceable.
Very few owners stick as much to their principles and methods as Julie. While others wait until the yearling sales. Julie always buys foals on her own judgment. This one, a son of Study Of Man, cost 42,000gns at the foal sale in 2023 and has been well worth the wait. Many observers feel the lower limit of 80 for horses qualifying to run in the Derby should be raised. Mrs Wood, Hannon and Alderman are eloquent advocates of why it is fine as it is.
Sixth was another outsider, the Faye Bramey-trained Rebel Rocker, a 66/1 shot, although at 99, he was rated a full 16lb higher than the horse that ran past him in the closing stages. Faye has worked closely for a long time with A P McCoy and she is sure to have more success with Jennifer Dorey’s home bred.
Memories in horse racing are very short and I hadn’t remembered that Christmas Day started the 11/4 favourite for what many regard as the prime Derby trial, the Dante Stakes at York last month. He was comfortably put in his place in third by Item and, for a long time, that Andrew Balding-trained Juddmonte-owned colt was the biggest market threat to Saturday's favourite, winner of the Chester Vase as his trial.
But the ground was clearly a worry for Item as he drifted out to 11/2 before finishing a remote ninth. Christmas Day moved the other way in the market. Priced at 14/1 in the Racing Post forecast in the morning he started at half those odds and with the 25p in the pound deduction bookmakers could (although some did not) apply, that equates to nearer 5/1.
Camelot joins Galileo (four wins) and Australia, with Lambourn last year, as O’Brien Derby winners that then sired winners of the Classic. We always wondered which of the array of new stallions that would fill that area of Galileo’s brilliance. Camelot seems the most likely.
Friday’s Oaks was another O’Brien tour-de-force, but in this case it was son Joseph and the Frankel filly Thundering On that exploded past and away from the Gosdens’ well-supported Legacy Link by almost four lengths.
Until Thundering On appeared on the scene, victory seemed assured for Legacy Link as that Dubawi filly had taken it up from Sugar Island, least fancied of the three Aidan O’Brien runners at 25/1 and another daughter of Dubawi. I watched at close hand as Aidan saddled his three Oaks contenders in the paddock beforehand and had to smile when the first girth tried on the strapping Sugar Island failed to go around her by a good few inches. She is some physical specimen!
She looks one that will take her races going forward even though Thundering On was ten lengths ahead of her by the line. Sadly, my role as chief cheerleader fell flat. The boss’s 100/1 bet on favourite Amelia Earhart never looked like materialising. There’s aways next year, Matt!
If you were a trainer with a Derby (Motivator) and Oaks winner (Sariska) to your name, where would you prefer to have been on Saturday? Michael Bell found himself watching maybe 45 minutes of cricket al Lord’s on an awful day which not only spoilt the Test match for spectators on the worst pitch ever at the Headquarters of cricket, but also ruined hopes of a big attendance on the imaginatively improved Hill at Epsom.
At least Michael’s viewing of the Derby wasn’t interrupted, neither was his winner of a £51k race, £25k to the winner, that Blues And Royals won with a last-stride dip of the head at Musselburgh. Blues And Royals is in triple ownership, but I was delighted that the white colours, dark blue cap of Jonathan Barnett passed the line in front.
That’s three nice wins so far. Could he sneak into the Britannia, probably not, but that sort of win keeps owners happy. At least I had something to cheer on Saturday!
An Analysis of the Racing Post Ratings in UK Turf flat racing
An excellent addition to the Query Tool back in December 2025 was the ability to query Racing Post Ratings (RPR), writes Dave Renham. Hence, I, along with other Geegeez Gold members, can now delve into past stats for this long-established rating method.
In this article I plan to dig into RPRs to try and unearth some positive or negative angles that hopefully we can employ successfully this year and into the future. It is not for me discuss the pros and cons of how the RPR figure we see in the racecard is calculated. Ultimately, this is a formula or method that the Racing Post have been using for many years, so we need to assume they are happy with their product.
Introduction
My focus for this piece is UK turf flat racing and I will be analysing the RPR figures for this specific race code. The time frame studied runs from the start of 2020 through to the end of 2025, six full turf seasons. All profit/loss figures have been calculated to BSP less 2% commission.
In the past I have had conversations with respected racing analysts who have compiled ratings, be they speed or ability ratings, and, for them, to judge the effectiveness of their ratings the win strike rate is very important. The top-rated runner should have the highest win percentage, gradually reducing for the other ranking positions.
Obviously, it is hoped the top-rated runner is going to be the best performer in terms of returns as well; however, it is important to point out that regardless of how good a set of ratings is, speed or form-based, we cannot expect the top-rated runner to secure a blind profit over thousands of races.
Overall Performance by RPR Ranking
Let’s start with looking at the win percentages (strike rates) for different rated runners. This covers all races on the turf over the period of study. The horizontal axis is labelled from 1 which stands for the top-rated runner, 2 the second rated and so on:
The strike rate for top-rated runners has been better than one win in every five races which is excellent for any set of ratings. More importantly perhaps, the win percentages have correlated positively with the rated positions producing the sliding scale I was talking about earlier. It is interesting, though, to see quite a big gap between the top two rated.
If we look at the Each Way (win & placed) strike rates, we have seen a similar pattern:
The top-rated runner has the highest percentage once more, and the sliding scale is replicated showing positive correlation with the win only figures.
Finally, in terms of the individual rating positions, let me share the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) figures. Being able to share these is down to another of the recent Geegeez additions of having PRB figures available in the Query Tool Results Summary. The splits were as follows:
The same type of graph has appeared a third time. Therefore, the RPR ratings have conformed well to the pattern we would expect for a good set of ratings.
RPR Top Rated
Overview
From here, it made sense to me to focus on the RPR top-rated horses to see if there were any positive or indeed negative angles. Hence let me look at the record of every single RPR top-rated runner since 2020:
Despite the excellent strike rate, losses have been steeper than perhaps might have been expected. As a general rule I am guessing these runners have been notably overbet. It is now time to dig a bit deeper.
RPR top-rated runners - Yearly strike rates
Let me start the digging process by comparing the yearly figures.
All years have shown a loss for the top-rated runner although the last two years have been the best, or least worst, in terms of returns.
RPR top-rated runners – Record by Month
A look now to see whether the time of year has made any difference to the returns. The graph below shows the splits:
Based on these data, the top-rated runners have performed far better in the Autumn than at any other time of the year. In the height of summer (July & August) top-rated RPR runners produced quite poor returns. I wonder if this has been a case of the top-rated runners being overbet even more than normal?
RPR top-rated runners - Market Rank
I would now like to share the performance of the top-rated runners in terms of market position / rank. The splits over the period of study were as follows:
Overall, the RPR top-rated runners would have lost us far less money when most closely aligned with market sentiment, specifically when starting either favourite or second favourite.
RPR top-rated runners - Handicaps versus non-handicaps
The table below illustrates the difference between handicaps and non-handicaps in terms of RPR top-rated horses.
As we should expected, top-rated non-handicap runners had the better win rate; but returns for each were very similar with an ROI difference between the two of just 0.58%.
RPR top-rated runners - Age of horse
Onto the age breakdown now.
There is a strong correlation between relative youth and win strike rate: younger top-rated RPR runners won a lot more than older ones. This is also true if we look at handicaps and non-handicaps separately.
One interesting age stat is for top-rated RPR 3yo runners in non-handicaps. They have had 902 winners from 2406 runners (SR 37.5%) for a very small loss of £22.04 (ROI -0.9%). This is the strongest cohort in terms of top-rated runners to date.
At the other end of the spectrum, older horses, those nine or above, have struggled in all races and they look best avoided.
RPR top-rated runners - Run style
Finally for top-rated runners I want to share performance by run style – possibly my favourite area of research. Firstly, a look at the win strike rates (within their specific run style groups):
We see an extremely familiar pattern when it comes to run style stats where early leaders/front runners have comfortably attained the best win percentage within their group while hold up horses endured the lowest.
Of course, we do not know pre-race what the run style of each horse will be and hence any profit/loss data shared is essentially hypothetical. However, I always like to show the splits to help emphasise the run style bias:
Essentially, if the RPR top-rated runner leads early then we have a huge value selection.
2nd Top Rated RPR
Overall, the performance of the top-rated RPR runner has been a little disappointing and, as I alluded to earlier, my feeling is that they have tended to be overbet. However, if the top-rated runner performance has been modest, horses second in the RPR Ratings have performed much better in terms of returns. Here are their overall figures:
Losses to £1 level stakes at BSP very close to break even over the period of study.
Let me drill deeper into the second rated runner to see whether we can find a positive angle or two.
RPR 2nd rated runners - Handicaps versus non-handicaps
I want to start with handicaps versus ‘nons’ as we immediately ‘hit’ our first positive.
Horses second in the ratings have made a steady profit in non-handicaps which is impressive considering this is every single qualifier. All of this profit came from younger horses, those aged two to four. This cohort hit a win rate of 19% thanks to 1186 wins from 6253 producing a profit of £438.40 (ROI +7%).
RPR 2nd rated runners – Horses with an ISP of 12/1 or less
As we know, some bottom lines can be skewed by big priced winners, so I narrowed down the group to those that had an Industry SP of 12/1 or less. Again, I have split handicaps and non-handicaps:
Handicap runners made a very small loss, while non-handicap runners within this price bracket enjoyed returns of 2p in the £.
Let me now share three further positive angles I found for those second top in the RPR Ratings. I am going to keep the price restriction of 12/1 or shorter in place for all three:
Second rated runners ridden by a claiming jockey produced 558 wins from 3420 (SR 16.3%) for a profit of £137.24 (ROI +4%).
Fillies and mares when second in the ratings secured a strike rate of 18.2% (1145 wins from 6289) for a profit of £227.50 (ROI +3.6%).
Sticking with mares, those aged five or six and second in the ratings enjoyed a great record, with 170 wins from 874 runners (SR 19.5%) for a decent profit of £233.71 (ROI +26.7%). It should be noted that five- and six-year-old mares would also have secured a small profit if focusing on horses priced over 12/1.
RPR 2nd rated runners – Run Style
Finally, let me share the run style figures for those second in the RPR Ratings. To allow the best comparison against the top-rated RPR stats shared earlier these results will cover all races and all prices:
We'd expect lower strike rates for each group compared with the top-rated stats, but what about returns?
The front running (led) stats have been off the chart in terms of potential returns. In contrast, the losses for mid div and held up runners were quite significant.
*
The Racing Post Ratings have been around since the late eighties when they were known as ‘Postmark’ and are long established. Based on the recent evidence shared in this piece, the better value has been with those runners rated second in the ratings. I think that top-rated runners have been consistently overbet, thus making the second rated runners better value generally speaking.
I have yet to dig into the performance of the Racing Post Ratings in terms of either All Weather or National Hunt codes; so it will be interesting to see what I find. That research will be done some time in the Autumn with hopefully enlightening articles to follow.
Until next time...
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Cercene_CoronationStakes2025.png318830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2026-06-02 17:37:422026-06-02 17:37:42Analysing Racing Post Ratings (UK Flat)
Finally, after more than 70 years of watching horse racing, I can honestly say I’ve seen everything, writes Tony Stafford.
We’ve been used to witnessing Aidan O’Brien horses filling the first three positions in Classic races maybe not that frequently. It happens enough not to be a total surprise when it does. Never, though, I venture, have we seen anything to match the stage management that led to yesterday’s clean sweep in the Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) at Chantilly.
Aidan’s trio finished the right way round in the end as favourite Constitution River, yes over there rather than at Epsom on Saturday in the “real” Derby, under a sublime Ryan Moore, edged out Hawk Mountain and Christophe Soumillon, with outsider Montreal, on their heels in third under an inspired ride from the front by reliable number two Wayne Lordan.
I wonder how many of the Ballydoyle entourage bothered or even thought to risk a little on the Tricast on the Pari-Mutuel. It paid €167.55 for a €1 stake!
Sixteen horses turned out for this 10.5 furlongs with Ryan drawn widest bar-one in 15, a position reckoned by many experts impossible from which to win. Those experts, including the extremely experienced Sky Sports Racing team on scene, reckoned Ryan would have to “drop in” to overcome the disadvantageous position.
Instead, he “dropped out” widest of all in clear isolation in the early running as Lordan from the middle aimed and effected a fast break to get to the inside. Soumillon was soon at the head of the big group up the middle, and you could understand the enormity of the favourite’s task as Constitution River was needing plenty of encouragement throughout the entire race as he was so wide as the turns unfolded.
By the time they had straightened for home, the Ballydoyle trio had worked their way into the podium places as Karl Burke’s Hankelow, echoing his prominent role in the French 2,000 Guineas, started to flag. He had finished a close third over the mile at Longchamp behind St James’s Palace-bound Rayif and yesterday’s rival Komorebi.
The stock of that race took a dive yesterday, Komorebi finishing only tenth and Burke’s horse fading away to 13th.
Winding up for the final thrust a furlong from home, the three Coolmore colts were in a line. If anything, you were wondering, certainly I was, whether Montreal was going to spring the shock. Hawk Mountain, winner of last year’s Futurity at Doncaster where he beat next Saturday’s Epsom race favourite Benvenuto Cellini, was also fully extended, but Ryan was the one with the most resources at his disposal.
It wasn’t until the last 75 yards that the result was etched on the trophy with Michael Tabor’s blue edging out Derrick Smith’s purple, Sue Magnier’s second pink silks gracing the third home. That the final margin had stretched to threequarters of a length at the line suggested strongly that Constitution River would have had a favourite’s chance over another furlong and a half at Epsom had he been sent there.
For years, we’ve had the supreme hurdler turned nine-year-old embryo flat performer Constitution Hill as the most popular racehorse. Maybe Constitution River will do enough in his career to give pause for thought. The world as they say, is his – you know what.
And as if the O’Brien family didn’t have enough to celebrate yesterday, out of the pack into fourth came A Boy Named Susie. His trainer? None other than Aidan and Anne-Marie O’Brien’s younger son Donnacha and owned by his (Donnacha’s) sister Ana, no mean jockey herself until injury curtailed her career.
Yesterday’s winner and runner-up were among the 22 left in the Betfred Derby at the latest stage. The already humbled French – don’t fret mes chers, the English team were similarly blown away – do not have a single horse standing in the Classic unless connections wish to put up the requisite supplementary fee of £90,000 by noon today.
To recoup that, your horse would have to finish in the first four of the £1 million to the winner, and £2 million total, contest. Prizes for the Betfred Derby dribble down to tenth, almost in the way of the sales races for two-year-olds, but from a fittingly more handsome starting point.
The best that the home team could muster yesterday was the 37 grand picked up by fifth-home Alam. Aidan will be credited with £1.2 million in the French trainers’ prizemoney list or rather €1.37 million and the winner’s €857k (or if you prefer £745,000) will swell by another €282k as he is French-bred, while his stablemates are not. I wondered why they decided to go there!
Ana O’Brien’s 74 grand is likely to be swamped by what she can expect to field in offers for her colt from the ever-ravenous Australian stables who have so much money to spend.
As my old pal Lew Day told me the other week, he retained a half-share in his horse Raheen House when he went to race in Australia, there were maybe a hundred joint-owners sharing the other half, a worthwhile punt if you have the prizemoney to offer as they do.
I guess it’s possible there might be a supplementary entry or two, although whether anyone will be daring enough after this O’Brien 1-2-3 is debatable.
Suppose the bare 20 all stay in, that would mean ten for the home team including smart pair Item (Andrew Balding) and Maltese Cross (William Haggas) and again ten from Ireland, eight from Aidan and two trained by his elder son Joseph, including James J Braddock which got up late to beat Aidan’s Pierre Bonnard in the Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial at Leopardstown last time.
James J Braddock already has part Australian ownership, a group having acquired a share from noted Irish media expert (and Joseph advisor) Kevin Blake. Joseph bought the son of Zarak as a yearling for 40,000gns. His stud fee in France this year was €80k, so some bargain, never mind what he has already collected for his now part-owner. A share of the £1 million would still do nicely.
Benvenuto Cellini is now 2/1 best to make it 12 Derby wins for O’Brien and 13 for Michael Tabor. Item is only 4/1 now after that smooth Dante win at York, with Pierre Bonnard and Lingfield trial winner Maltese Cross coming next.
With the money after the winner standing at £400k; £200k; £130k; £80k; £50k; £35k; £30k; £25k and £20k, I wonder if we will see a Michael Dickinson-type domination on Saturday? Could the Famous Five of the 1983 Cheltenham Gold Cup be usurped by a Superb Six, a Superlative Seven of even an Extraordinary Eight? Probably not, and for the home trainers with hopes of winning the most important prize in the calendar, let’s hope it doesn’t happen.
I’m sure that Saturday’s revelation of the 16 six-day acceptors (four supplementary) for Friday’s Oaks at Epsom brought the chill of dread to the Editor with Precise poised to line up with/against Amelia Earhart depending on your point of view.
Does the stretching-out to 1m4f for the first time of an ultra-impressive Guineas-winning filly trump the emphatic Cheshire Oaks-winning form at just a half-furlong or so short of the Classic trip of her stablemate?
It might not even be a case of whether Ryan Moore or Wayne Lordan rides which of the pair. Lordan rode True Love to win the 1,000 Guineas as Moore on Precise was a sleepy seventh. At the Curragh, a rejuvenated, if you can call it that after one run off a setback, Precise with Lordan up, slaughtered her old rival, now under Ryan, with the finishing speed of a true champion.
He’s done it successfully before, but will Aidan want to test his belief that Precise will stay another four furlongs so soon after the Curragh against the certainty of knowing she would be the one to beat if turning up for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot? Nervy times – as I said, depending on your point of view.
What yesterday in Chantilly told us, is that even after all this time, Aidan O’Brien is getting better every year in his role as custodian of the Coolmore breeding operation. I’ll never again subscribe to the view that anything he attempts is unlikely to happen.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ConstitutionRiver_PrixduJockeyClub_2026.png316830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2026-06-01 07:18:562026-06-01 07:45:58Monday Musings: Now I’ve Seen Everything
As I have mentioned before my preference from a betting perspective is flat racing and, within the flat sphere, I primarily bet in handicaps, writes Dave Renham. In this article however, I will be looking 3yo only and 3yo+ non-handicap maiden races. I have researched eight full years of data spanning from 2018 to 2025 for UK flat and AW racing. All profits and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission on any winning bets.
Market Rank
Let me start with the betting market and, specifically, the Betfair market (BSP). I want to share the stats by market position:
Favourites have made the tiniest of profits to BSP, while those third in market rank have proved to be the best value. Once we hit fourth or bigger in the betting, we see a severe drop off in terms of returns. For the record, favourites returned a profit in both 3yo only and 3yo+ races. Betting all of the top three market ranked horses would have been a marginally profitable endeavour.
The focus clearly should be on horses near the top of the betting, then. This race type is market friendly - more market friendly than the norm. Indeed, if we compare the percentage of races won for horses priced BSP 10.0 or less in 3yo/3yo+ maidens compared with ALL races, we see quite a contrast:
As we can see the difference is more than 10%.
Moving on, for virtually all articles I write these days I implement a BSP price cap to try and avoid any huge priced winners skewing the figures. I will do that here, too, and, looking at the overall results, a price cap of BSP 14.0 or less makes sense. The remaining stats shared therefore are based only on horses within the stipulated price cap.
Sex of horse
My first port of call away from the betting market is to look at the record of male horses versus female ones. The breakdown below is based on the results of races open to both sexes. It makes no sense to include male or female only races in any such comparison:
As is usually the case, we see far more male runners than females, but the females have provided the value, and by far the best returns of the two when focusing on runners priced BSP 14.0 or less.
Sticking with this theme, I wanted to compare the results of male runners – colts versus geldings. I assumed that the colts would outperform geldings, but I have been known to be wrong in the past. Let me start by comparing the win percentages or win strike rate for each:
Colts have had a better win percentage by around 5% in absolute terms and a noteworthy 20% relatively; but has this equated to better value? The A/E index, based on BSP data, should be instructive:
According to these numbers, colts have been much better value than geldings, and if we now compare the returns, we can see that this has been the case:
In terms of returns to BSP, geldings would have lost us over 8 pence in the £ more than colts, when priced BSP 14.0 or less. However, there is one positive gelding stat to share and that is the record of horses having their very first run after being gelded. This subset of runners won 69 races from 242 runners (SR 28.5%) for a profit of £17.22 (ROI +7.1%).
Age
In terms of age it only makes sense to share the data for races open to more than one age group so the table below includes only 3yo+ maidens over the past eight years.
All bar 187 runners have been aged three. As it turns out 4yos have provided the best value but, on average, we saw fewer than 20 qualifiers per year over the period of study. 5yos and up have the worst record from a small sample. It should be noted that this older age group have really struggled when priced above BSP 14.0 – that cohort won just three races from 357 runners. Even backing them to a Betfair place would have lost £161.88, almost half of stakes!
Career starts
Let's now look at exposure, in terms of career starts, to see what that has told us with the price cap in place.
Horses making their racecourse debut had the lowest strike rate, as we would expect, but they edged into profit (just). It seems that horses that are making their second start (1 career run) have been overbet, based on the fact that they lost nearly 10p in the £.
Horses with two prior starts have produced the best returns and, if we focus on those that were in the top three in the betting, their figures improve further to 277 wins from 869 (SR 31.9%) for a profit of £97.75 (ROI +11.3%). Maybe slightly surprisingly, horses with four or more career runs also edged into profit.
Position Last Time Out (LTO)
A look now at where the horse finished LTO. Firstly, a look at the win strike rates:
Horses that finished runner-up LTO recorded an excellent strike rate and, as we can see, the win rate reduced as the finishing position gets worse. The table below adds more colour:
As the table shows, runners up have not only a good strike rate, but they have delivered decent profits, too. I am not sure why LTO 4ths have far better returns than those that finished third. My guess is that this is probably an anomaly, though looking at the similar win percentages it could be that they're a touch underbet in relation to third placed finishers.
Days since last run (DSLR)
There are two types of layoff abour which I would like to share some data, because both have shown a profit with runners BSP priced 14.0 or shorter. They are horses returning to the track quickly (within 10 days), and those absent for around 6 months or more (180 days+ to be precise). The table shows the two cohorts:
So, either end of the spectrum has proved to be the value.
Trainer Angles
I will finish with some trainer stats. The table below includes those trainers who saddled at least 60 runners at a BSP of 14.0 or shorter during the eight-year review period:
It is somewhat surprising that only six of the 18 trainers recorded a profit considering what has been shared to date. Indeed, two of the six (bin Suroor and Watson) were only marginally in profit. The performances of Kevin Ryan and the Charlton stable have been especially poor in terms of their returns (worse than 40p in the £). Both look worth avoiding generally in these contests.
On the plus side the three ‘B’s - Balding, Boughey and Burke - all performed well with good strike rates and decent profits to boot.
Let me now share some of the strongest trainer stats (BSP 14.0 or less) I could find in these maiden races and that aforementioned trio own a few, as does the Gosden yard:
Andrew Balding debutants have fared extremely well winning 13 races from 41 starts (SR 31.7%) for a healthy profit of £25.84 (ROI +63%).
Balding with second and third favourites combined has won 25% of races (30 wins from 120) for a profit of £37.90 (ROI +31.6%).
Any runner at Kempton from the Balding stable should be noted based on the past eight years of results. In this timeframe 10 of the 27 runners have won (SR 37%) for a profit of £20.04 (ROI +74.2%).
Balding runners that finished second LTO won 27 races from 69 runners (SR 39.1%) for a profit of £19.28 (ROI +27.9%).
When Oisin Murphy has been on board for Balding, their combined record reads 25 winners from 69 rides (SR 36.2%) for a profit of £32.44 (ROI +47%).
Horses having their second career run for the Gosden stable did well hitting a one in three win rate thanks to 42 wins from 125 with profits of £22.01 (ROI +17.6%).
The Gosdens also performed well with their market leaders thanks to 72 wins from 140 (SR 51.4%) for a profit of £22.92 (ROI +16.4%).
Team Gosden’s second and third favs combined won 41 from 169 (SR 24.3%) for a tidy profit of £38.51 (ROI +22.8%).
George Boughey runners when starting favourite won an amazing 75% of the time (15 wins from 20) for a profit of £12.19 (ROI +61%).
Boughey debutants did well from a small sample, winning 7 races from 16 starts (SR 43.8%) for a profit of 7.20 (ROI +45%).
Boughey’s runners were far better on the turf than the AW. His AW runners made a loss while the turf runners won 14 from 27 (SR 51.9%) for a profit of £32.15 (ROI +119.1%).
Karl Burke-trained favourites scored 12 wins from 18 (SR 66.7%) for a profit of £7.26 (ROI +40.3%).
Burke’s female runners underperformed but his male runners had an exceptional record. They won 16 races from 31, with colts winning 8 from 14 (SR 57.1%) for a profit of £15.06 (ROI +107.6%), and geldings 8 from 17 (SR 47.1%) for a profit of £13.83 (ROI +81.4%).
There are some extremely playable trainer stats there, and it will be interesting to see how many continue to prove profitable in the coming months and years.
*
These three-year-old and 3yo+ maidens have presented some surprisingly positive angles over the past few seasons and I will certainly be looking at more such races in the future with a view to potentially have a bet based on the research shared above. I hope there are some takeaways for you, too.
Until next time...
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/KarlBurke_maiden.png320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2026-05-27 08:16:092026-06-01 07:45:32Analysis of 3yo and 3yo+ Maiden Races
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