When Horses Change Stable: Part 1
In my next two articles I am going to look at horses that have switched stables on the flat, writes Dave Renham. This one will look at the first run for a new yard, and the next one will examine the second run for new connections. The one stipulation is that the switch is from a horse that has been running on the flat (i.e. not National Hunt). This is mainly because there are some dual-purpose horses that switch yards each year from a dedicated National Hunt stable to a flat stable.
The data has been taken from the last ten full years (2015-2024) of flat racing in the UK (turf/AW) and all profit and loss has been calculated to Betfair SP with 2% commission applied on any winners.
All Trainer Changes
Let's start by looking at all horses having their first run for a new trainer:
Overall, stable switchers made a profit to BSP but of course these figures are skewed by some very big prices going in. The strike rate is around one win in every 12 so we are relying on enough big prices winning for us to cancel out the numerous losing selections. Below I have shown how these figures have fluctuated year on year in terms of profit/loss to £1 level stakes to BSP:
The journey to the overall 732 unit profit has not been a smooth one, to say the least. It seems clear that we need to be far more selective in our approach.
Trainer Change: Market Factors
Let's now examine market factors in terms of the more fancied end of the market, starting with stable switchers that started favourite on their first start for a new yard. For market rank I am using Betfair Exchange prices, so the Exchange market leaders. Here are the results:
Favourites have just edged into profit which is always good to see. Splitting favourites into non-handicap versus handicap we get the following results:
There have been far more handicap switchers than in non-handicaps, and that group has provided the profits. Handicap favourites have also secured a decent A/E index of 1.00.
Next, let's combine second and third favourites to see how they fared.
We have similar figures here with a very small profit being achieved. It's worth breaking down by race type once more:
We again see a similar scenario here with second/third favourites in handicaps making a decent profit. The non-handicap results are actually quite poor with losses of over 16 pence in the £.
If we now combine the handicap results for those horses that started in the top three in the betting on their first start after switching stables, we get the following yearly splits:
The table shows seven winning years out of ten with the last six years all seeing a BSP profit.
Trainer Change: Last Time Out (LTO) Performance
I would like to look at last time out performance next in terms of a horse's finishing position on its most recent start. Here are the findings:
We have similar strike rates for those that finished first, second or third LTO. As you might expect, this drops considerably for horses that finished fourth or worse. LTO winners were profitable, but it is the bigger prices that have made this happen. Those LTO winners that were priced 18.0 or bigger at BSP produced 26 winners from 454 runners (SR 5.7%) for a profit of £377.15 (ROI +83.1%). Once again if we restrict things to just handicap races these figures improve to 24 wins from 385 (SR 6.2%) for a profit of £399.30 (ROI +103.7%).
Trainer Change: Gender of Horse
Time to compare the sex of the horse next. Male horses tend to slightly outperform female horses, winning roughly 1.12 times as often. To create this figure, I divided the male win strike rate by the female win strike rate in all flat races over the past ten years. That is the benchmark. The win strike rates for first time switchers are as follows:
When dividing these strike rates, we get a figure of 1.27. This suggests perhaps that male horses settle more quickly in their new surroundings compared with female horses.
There is also a big difference between the two in terms of profit and loss too:
Based on the figures, it does seem that male horses are a far better bet than females when having their first run for a new trainer.
It is also worth noting that female runners have performed better when having at least a month at their new yard before running again. Female stable switchers that returned to the track within 30 days lost 36 pence in the £ with an A/E index of 0.71; those which were rested 31 days or more would have lost you less than 2p in the £ with an A/E index of 0.91.
Trainer Change: Individual Trainer Records
I am sure the most interesting data for most readers will be the individual trainer results. Below is a list of all trainers that have run at least 100 qualifiers, ordered by win strike rate:
16 of the 27 in this list proved profitable to BSP and I would like to focus on a few of them, starting with Mick Appleby.
Appleby’s strike rate of close to 19% is exceptional considering his overall strike rate for all runners is just over 11%. He seems to have a knack of getting the best out of his new recruits first time out. Below is a graph detailing his profit and loss by year:
Seven winning years, two losing years and 2023 effectively hitting a break-even scenario. It should be noted that a good chunk of these profits occurred between 2015 and 2019. However, Appleby has still proved profitable overall in the past five years although to a lesser extent as the market cottons on.
Appleby is not one for turning his new recruits out again quickly after acquiring from another yard: only 11% of them have returned to the track within 30 days. This policy of having longer with the horse before its first run for the stable has proved to be a good one.
Do take note of Appleby runners that drop back in distance. This cohort has provided him with 35 winners from 161 qualifiers (SR 21.7%) for a profit at Betfair SP of £138.25 (ROI +85.9%). One key attribute in a trainer is being able to pinpoint the exact best distance that a horse should run: Mick seems very good at this.
Kevin de Foy is a relatively new trainer on the block but his figures are very solid, hitting close to one win in every five runs. He has done particularly well when his runners have started as favourite – 10 wins from 23 (SR 43.5%) for a profit of £8.74 (ROI +38%). Like Appleby he is not a fan of turning his new recruits out quickly, with just five of his 112 runners racing within the first month. Indeed, his record with those runners off the track for 150 days or more is highly impressive. They have won 10 of the their 43 starts (SR 23.3%) for a profit of £19.76 (ROI +46%).
David Loughnane has produced a solid 15% win rate with horses new to his yard, and they have performed particularly well when having their first stable start on the all-weather. This cohort won 16 of 89 starts (SR 19.8%) for a healthy profit of £35.15 (ROI +39.5%). That improves further if restricting runners to those that stick to the all-weather having raced LTO on a non-turf surface as well. These runners have scored 13 times from 53 (SR 24.5%) for a profit of £45.35 (ROI +85.6%). There has been one negative and that is horses aged five or older. They have won just twice from 33 starts (SR 6.1%) and lost 40p in the £. Loughnane has a far better record with his three- and four-year-olds who both have win strike rates of over 17%.
Archie Watson has secured the best strike rate of all the trainers in the table hitting close to 23%. He has been extremely consistent with his win percentage being 19% or higher in every year since 2017. For the record he was 0 from 6 in 2016 and had no qualifiers in 2015. He has been profitable in every year bar one since 2018 with the losing year (2019) producing only small losses of under 4p in the £.
One of the strongest stats Watson has is when he books Hollie Doyle to ride his new recruits. This combo has provided 16 winners from just 47 runners (SR 34%) for a BSP profit of £85.26 (ROI +181.4%). A second very strong stat, arguably even stronger than the Doyle one, is when his new runners race after a break in excess of 300 days. These runners have won an amazing 48% of the time (12 wins from 25) for a mouthwatering profit of £55.89 (ROI +223.58).
Below is a graph highlighting all trainers with 100+ runners that have secured an A/E index of over 1.00 suggesting their runners have offered punters value. Not surprisingly perhaps Appleby, de Foy, Loughnane and Watson are all there:
In terms of trainers with poor records, perhaps the most surprising is Richard Fahey. In fact, he has not had a winner on first switching to his yard since June 2020, a run of 36 consecutive losers. There are a few very poor stats for Fahey including his turf record of just 4 wins from 80, and his record with female horses which stands at 1 win from 32.
Other stables to be cautious about on first start after a switch seem to be Stuart Williams and the Moore's, Gary and Josh.
**
I think I've unearthed plenty of useful stats in the research to date. Some of my favourites include:
- Trainer change runners in the top three in the betting in handicaps have produced solid long-term profits
- Male horses running first time for a new yard have performed far better than female horses
- Trainers Mick Appleby, Kevin De Foy, David Loughnane and Archie Watson all have very good records with trainer switch runners
- Trainers Richard Fahey, Gary/Josh Moore and Stuart Williams have poor records on their first run for the yard
In part 2, I will be sharing my findings on how trainer change runners fare on their second starts for their new yards. See you next time.
- DR