Cheltenham Festival 2013: Day One Preview
It's here. It's finally here! Yes, race fans, Cheltenham Festival 2013 has arrived. And, at 13.30 on Tuesday afternoon, the roars from grandstand, pub and sofa will represent a huge collective exhalation after 361 days of holding our breath. Let it out. Let it all out. And now, let's bet!
Below are my Day One (Tuesday) thoughts.
1.30 WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) (2m 1/2f)
The first of twenty-seven races, and traditionally a cracker to raise the curtain on day one.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Key Stats
13/15 won last time out
17/18 ran within ten weeks (70 days)
1/31 horses rated above 142 in last fifteen years have won (highest, Cue Card, rated 159)
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Form Preview
The standout piece of form, and obvious starting point, is that of My Tent Or Yours' Betfair Hurdle win last time out. He sauntered clear there, to win by five lengths in the manner of a very high class animal.
The 'right' horses were close up there, implying that the form is very solid. Indeed, he gave seven pounds to the runner up, Cotton Mill, and he was in the betting for the Champion Hurdle (though now goes to the County Hurdle).
Quite simply, if he runs to that level of form - officially rated 162 - he WILL win. But. But... My Tent Or Yours has been beaten three times in his career already. Reasonable excuses could be made in each case, of course, but there can be no room for sick notes when pondering a 6/4 shot in the Supreme.
If you're not already on - I had a bit of 7/2 immediately after that Betfair romp - then you might be better advised to look for some each way value, especially as Skybet are offering four places and William Hill FIVE places. [Unless, of course you're using BetVictor's free bet if you lose offer].
Jezki leads the Irish challenge and, with the raiders having such a brilliant record in the race, he deserves a second glance. It's hard to crab the form of his three fairly easy wins in Ireland - two of them in Grade 1 contests - but I do have a few niggles.
Firstly, he's not run since Christmas, and that means he's bidding to defy the longest layoff since Captain Cee Bee won after four months off in 2008. Before him, you have to go back to Montelado in 1993 to find a winner which hadn't run in the same calendar year. (Cue Card was trying to overcome such a break when only fourth as 7/4 fav in 2011).
As well as the long absence, there is the fact that Jezki has also been beaten in both starts when there was a bigger field than twelve runners and, whilst that's too small a sample size to be conclusive, it suggests he might get bullied out of things in what will be a big turn out. For those reasons, as they say on Dragon's Den, I'm out.
Un Atout, Champagne Fever and Pique Sous are next in the Irish challenge, and all are trained by Willie Mullins. Un Atout could well be second favourite by tape rise, and this handsome son of Robin Des Champs is unbeaten in three starts outside of Graded company. All were on heavy ground and all were facile victories.
In fact, all three race comments from Racing Post conclude with the phrase "very easily". A Racing Post Rating for the last run of 153 is big (Jezki's best is 149), but he has yet to compete in this elevated company. More worrying perhaps, he has yet to race on quicker than heavy, though it is unlikely to be much less testing here.
He remains a horse of huge potential, and maybe he's the one to give My Tent Or Yours the most to think about. But he's short enough now, and again if you're not on already (I am, for interest money, at 16/1!), you may have missed the boat.
Pique Sous has run consistently well in nine races - five wins, a second and three thirds - but his best form is a stone shy of some of these, and he has far less scope to improve. He did run a cracker in the Champion Bumper last year, but even on that best piece of form, he has something to find with Champagne Fever. He is of mild interest if you're betting each way with William Hill, and their five places offer.
Champagne Fever is a horse I like a lot, and he's one which we know will go on any ground and we know will stay up the hill, because he did both in last year's Champion Bumper. His only really poor run was when stepped up to two and a half miles in heavy ground and, aside from that, he has lines of form to beat plenty of these.
Jezki beat him in a six runner race which would have played to that one's speed strengths. But Champagne Fever saw off that one - and Pique Sous - in the Cheltenham Bumper; and Melodic Rendezvous in the Punchestown Bumper. He'll try to make all, and will have plenty off the bridle turning for home.
Whether he's good enough to win is another matter, but under what ought to be optimal conditions, he's fair each way value.
The home defence is led by Dodging Bullets, Melodic Rendezvous and River Maigue. Dodging Bullets is one horse here which I find it hard to make a case for. I think he's been largely well placed, and well ridden, in small fields, and I believe his Christmas Hurdle rating flatters him.
Obviously, I might be wrong on that, and so be it. But on the balance of his form, I couldn't have him at the price. River Maigue was beaten a diminishing length and a half back in November and, in what will be a truer test of stamina, I'd be confident of him reversing placings this time around.
River Maigue was outsprinted last time, giving nine pounds to a younger (and very capable) rival in Far West, and he definitely needs a stiffer test like this will be.
Puffin Billy completes my ante-post portfolio on this race. I backed him at 12/1 and, after that defeat to Melodic Rendezvous, he was apparently lame. That news pushed his price out to 33/1, whereupon I had a 'just in case' fiver at 77.75 on Bet.fair, before support has moved him back in again.
If he was injured the last day, he ran pretty well. And if he is back to peak fitness, he's still over-priced.
I can't see anything else winning, though a quick word for the unraced over hurdles, Flying Cross. This nag is trained by David Pipe and is good enough to have a flat rating of 111. That rating was earned when a staying on third in the Irish St Leger, a Group 1, in soft ground. He's been off for almost two years and has never publicly jumped a hurdle, but given the ground, he could outclass many of these and maybe - only maybe - nab fourth or fifth at a monster price. Again, Skybet or William Hill with the deeper place markets are the places to go if that's a compelling enough case for you! (Caveat emptor, naturally).
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Tips
Most likely Supreme Novices' winner: My Tent Or Yours
Best each way: Champagne Fever
Other to consider: Puffin Billy
Monster outsider who might burgle a place: Flying Cross
Best Supreme Novices' Hurdle Bookmaker Offers
BetVictor will refund all losing bets on the race, up to £50.
Racebets will refund your day of race wagers on this race if My Tent Or Yours wins! And if you're a new customer, and enter 'geegeez' into the My Account > Bonus code box, they'll give you a completely free £10 bet. (Terms apply).
William Hill are offering FIVE places (quarter the odds) on this race, and they'll match you for £50.
2.05 RACING POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) (2m)
We step onto the chase course for the first time, and it's the speedy young guns to the fore in the Arkle Challenge Trophy. Hold on to your hats!
Arkle Trophy Key Stats
Last 23 winners were aged five to eight years (20 of them 5, 6 or 7)
Eight of last ten winners had either won at Cheltenham before, or been placed at the Festival
15/15 11/1 or shorter
Arkle Trophy Form Preview
The Arkle is a thrilling two mile chase contested by the fastest novice chasers around. Because they are inexperienced horses, spills can occur as well as thrills, and it's a brave man who gets stuck in at very short odds. Of the five horses sent off 2/1 or shorter in the last fifteen years, only Azertyuiop and Sprinter Sacre were good enough on the day to win. They were priced at 5/4 and 8/11 respectively.
This year sees another odds on shot line up in the formidable frame of Simonsig. Now, whilst he's no Sprinter Sacre (which horse is?), he's clearly a very talented animal, as seven wins from eight rules runs testifies.
He's only had the two chases and the merit of those can be questioned, as a) only five other horses have finished in those races (and only eight lined up), and b) they've collectively managed to win just one subsequent race.
On the bright side, Simonsig was a very classy hurdler, rated 157 when winning at Aintree, having already won the Neptune at the Festival last year. Former classy hurdlers do have an exceptional record in the Arkle, and clearly the favourite owes his price to his finesse over the smaller obstacles.
On the downside, he's not run since late December, and his trainer has been consistently frustrated by the weather when trying to get a run and/or a racecourse gallop into him. He will be fit, but will he be race fit? Odds on leaves very little margin for error.
The second favourite and, to many people, the only (or at least the chief) threat is Overturn, a nine-year-old trained by Donald McCain. The last horse his age to win this race was Danish Flight back in 1988. True, only three short priced horses of that age have run in the last fifteen years, but 5/2 Captain Cee Bee (8th), 7/1 Adamant Approach (fell), and 9/2 Barton (7th) give little cause for optimism.
In fact, only 10/1 Nipper Reed in 1999 was good enough to make the frame, from twelve older horses to try during that decade and a half period.
Overturn did run second in the Champion Hurdle last year, but there was a feeling that he stole a march on all bar Rock On Ruby - at least, I have that feeling - and he'll be trying to steal a march again this year. His hurdle rating nevertheless is a whopping 164, but again, his chase form leaves much to the imagination.
Specifically, he's competed in three four runner chases, and beaten little, with the exception of a 'not off' (going for a novices' handicap chase) Tetlami the last day.
That form is reasonable, with the latter having won since against some fair types, but he (Tetlami) definitely improved from the Overturn run to his Huntingdon win.
He's an out and out front-runner, and will bid to get out and stay out on a testing track. The first part of that bid looks a certainty. Whether he can stay out is a much tougher question to answer.
If there is another challenger in the race, then it is the horse which has shown most already over fences, Arvika Ligeonniere. This fellow has already won two Grade 1's in Ireland, and had a penalty kick for the hat-trick last time before taking a soft fall.
'Only' rated 140 over hurdles, he's a fair bit to find with the first two in the betting on that score, but he does have more experience over fences than that pair, and he will undoubtedly stay every yard of the trip. Actually, the main problem with him is that there's a good chance this triple two-and-a-half mile winner will be outpaced, perhaps badly outpaced.
He will be staying on up the hill - as he was when fourth in the 2010 potato race (Albert Bartlett) - but the front pair could be away and gone.
Nevertheless, something has to finish third, and he's by far the most obvious choice.
Arkle Trophy Tips
It's a really shallow race and there's not much to go at from a betting perspective. The most likely winner is Simonsig, but he's been off a long time. The next most likely winner is Overturn, but he's quite old and will have to make all, which is not easy round here.
And then there's Arvika Ligeonniere, who looks a fair each way bet to nothing.
Most likely Arkle winner: Simonsig
Next Best: Overturn
Best each way: Arvika Ligeonniere
Others to consider: none especially
Best Arkle Chase Bookmaker Offer
2.40 JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) (3m 1/2f)
Race three, and the first of the handicaps. If the two shorties have obliged in the first two races, then this contest offers some respite for the bookies. It also offers punters a chance to make a big score and almost guarantee a profit from day one. Would that it was as easy as that!
JLT Handicap Chase Key Stats
Last 13 winners rated 143 or below
Last 14 winners aged 7-10
6/15 won last time out (10/15 1-2-3 last time out)
12/15 carried 10-12 or less (14/15 11-02 or less)
7/15 placed at Festival before
JLT Handicap Chase Form Preview
Although with most Festival handicaps, we're ideally looking for a horse with scope to post a new ratings high, the Festival Handicap Chase tends to be won by a horse with a good recent record, a nice weight and previous Cheltenham form (nine of the last fifteen winners had run at least three times at the track, and eleven at least once).
I'll use the historical bar to exclude any horse rated 143+, which takes out a few of the fancied horses, notably the favourite, Our Mick.
With the defection of my ante-post fancy, Duke Of Lucca, due to the ground, the first horse of interest is Fruity O’Rooney, who ran a cracker last year to claim silver off a notch of 140. This time he's one pound less to carry and a mark of 139. As a ten year old, he is the same age as recent winners, Chief Dan George and Joes Edge.
Clearly needing his seasonal debut this term, he improved considerably to finish a fair seventh of 19 in the Hennessy at Newbury. Since then, two placed efforts in similar class handicap chases at a respectful distance behind Katenko should have put him spot on for another crack at this pot.
If he can get maintain a prominent position in the early skirmishes, Fruity should give us a bold run for our money.
The Package has finished second and fourth in the last two renewals of the race, and has plenty of other track form. He was only beaten seven lengths last year off 139, but is now rated 146 which, with its commensurate weight-carrying requirement, looks likely to hold him.
Conversely, when Alfie Sherrin won this last year, he was off 129, and now has 135, which may not be enough to prevent another brave attempt. His main target this season is likely to be the Grand National however, and although Sunnyhillboy almost won the National having won here for the same connections last year, it's a rare feat and I'd bet against him being 100% tuned up for this. In any case, his best form is on quicker ground.
Merry King is a very interesting horse in this race. I was pretty sure he'd go for the National Hunt Chase, but now re-routed, he might run a big race. Sure, he's only six and they don't generally win the JLT, but he's got bags of stamina and comes from highly respected connections.
JLT Handicap Chase Tips
Super competitive, as almost all of the Festival handicaps are, and I'll be taking a couple against the field, mainly in hope rather than expectation.
Best each way value for JLT Handicap Chase winner: Fruity O'Rooney
Others to consider: Alfie Sherrin, Merry King
Best JLT Handicap Chase Bookmaker Offer
FIVE places with bet365, BetVictor, BetFred, Bluesq, Boylesport, SkyBet and totesport.
3.20 STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) (2m 1/2f)
The highlight of day one, the Champion Hurdle, is one of THE great races in the year. The first single figure field for 33 years will tussle to win the Blue Riband of hurdling, and the last three winners - Rock On Ruby, Hurricane Fly, and Binocular - represent an imposing bar for the remainder. They're joined by pretenders such as Zarkandar, Cinders And Ashes and Countrywide Flame in a race which more than makes up for in quality what it lacks in quantity.
Champion Hurdle Key Stats
24 of the last 30 winners won last time out
All of the last 15 winners were placed 1-2-3 last time out
17 of the last 20 winners were aged 6-8
Champion Hurdle Form Preview
This is a really tricky race to assess, due to the prevailing soft and heavy ground all winter; the unsatisfactorily slow gallops in the trials; and, the fact that three previous Champion Hurdle winners lock horns. Nevertheless, we still need to take a view!
Let's start with the ante-post favourite since last March, Hurricane Fly, a horse which has been surprisingly weak in the betting in recent days. He won this in 2011 and was third last year when he was given a fair amount of ground to make up. He closed up well before the turn in but couldn't make up the remaining ground up the hill.
There are plenty who are prepared to forgive that, as they claim that the Mullins stable was under a cloud at the time, and the horse didn't look himself before the race. Possible, for sure.
But I take the view that - as a nine year old - the Fly's best days are likely behind him, and I'd be a bit surprised if he was able to regain the crown which slipped twelve months ago. Luckily for me, there are bookmakers who will refund losing bets if I'm wrong about that (thank you Paddy Power, see below), so there's little point in taking a chance on him in any case.
Zarkandar is next in, and it's far easier for me to make a case for him. Winner of a very well contested Triumph Hurdle in 2011, Zarkandar returned last year in the Champion Hurdle as a five year old. Historically, a very tricky age (physical immaturity/inexperience) at which to win the Champion, Zark ran with huge promise to be fifth, beaten only six and a three-quarter lengths.
He was staying on really well at the end there, and another fifty yards would have seen him collect the bronze medal. That, allied to the fact that I retain a suspicion that the front pair - Rock On Ruby and Overturn - stole a march on the rest, and the far quaggier underfoot this time, give him every chance in my book.
Since then, Zarkandar has won his three starts this term and done it in impressive fashion, including when readily seeing off Grandouet, and Khyber Kim. He's a much more experienced and physically mature specimen this time around, and I expect him to run a blinder.
The main danger to him may be his ex-stable mate - nominally at least - and now Harry Fry's flag bearer, Rock On Ruby. I say 'nominally' because officially Rock On Ruby was trained by Paul Nicholls last season. However, he was trained at Nicholls' then satellite yard in Seaborough, by... Harry Fry. Fry now trains out of Seaborough under his own name and, well, he's doing a fantastic job of it. Indeed, to date, he's recorded a level stakes profit of 59.46 units from his first 55 runners as a trainer! And, if you think that's good, since the turn of the year half of his 22 runners have won for a profit of 42.46 points!!!
Anyway, back to Rock On Ruby, and it's true he was given a brilliant ride by Noel Fehily to win last year. But there was little fluke about it: he was travelling well for longer than most and took ground out of a couple of the first five home in the last furlong. By the finish, he was almost four lengths better than the next best, and he's had a really good preparation since.
Third on unsuitably heavy ground behind Zarkandar in mid-December, he then waltzed away from Countrywide Flame at Doncaster last time. It has to be said that the fatal fall of Darlan there probably saved him from defeat, and that horse would have been favourite for this race if he'd not met such a horrific and untimely end.
If there's another horse in the race with the scope to improve into a Champion Hurdler, it is probably Cinders And Ashes rather than Countrywide Flame. The latter won the Triumph Hurdle and the former the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last year, so both have an affinity with track and trip.
But Countrywide Flame is probably a little shy of Champion class, despite an extremely admirable battling attribute. Whilst he may prove me wrong, I'm sweeter on Cinders And Ashes chance.
There was a lot to like about the way C&A travelled when winning that race, off a fevered pace, and he was always holding Darlan, who finished best of the rest, just over a length behind. However, Cinders did walk through the last hurdle there and a repeat of that would make it very hard for him to go to the ball.
Since then, this season has been disappointing, ostensibly at least. A remote second to Countrywide Flame in the Fighting Fifth last December was put down to the heavy, heavy ground, as was a laboured fifth in the Christmas Hurdle on similarly sodden turf 25 days later.
Cinders And Ashes hasn't been seen since, but is alleged to have worked very well in a recent racecourse gallop at Bangor. I'm not a huge fan of horses coming to the Festival off extended breaks, but in the circumstances, another run on seriously deep ground could have finished him for the year.
He still doesn't have ideal ground conditions now, and looks set for a minor role (alas for another of my ante-post 16/1 vouchers.
Binocular is nine now, the same age as Hurricane Fly, and he too looks a bit on the long-toothed side to be taking the headlines here. Although he was a long way out of his ground in last year's Champion Hurdle, he was being closed down rapidly by Zarkandar, who had more to give there, and who will finish in front of him here.
Since then, Binocular was well beaten under tender handling in the Irish Champion Hurdle. He should have been second there, but wouldn't have challenged Hurricane Fly, who was a fitter rival on the day, and who holds a 3-0 head to head record.
Champion Hurdle Tips
As you can see, the form lines are fairly incestuous, and it's not that easy to take a view on who is most likely to come out in front this time. There are some reservations about what sort of pace there might be in the race, and it could become tactical. As such, we ought to look for a bit of value, and that's how I'll play.
Champion Hurdle best bet: Zarkandar (I backed him over the weekend with the 'money back if Fly wins' offer).
Champion Hurdle Best Bookie Offer
Paddy Power will refund all bets on the Champion Hurdle if Hurricane Fly wins. They'll also match new customers' first deposit up to £50 with a free bet.
4.00 GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE (A Cross Country Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) (3m7f)
A looooong race, and one for specialists. I covered this recently in my Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase preview, and haven't changed my mind since then.
In a nutshell, then, this is a specialists' race where weight is less important than experience.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Key Stats
7/8 winners have been Irish-trained (the one 'failure' was when A New Story failed by a head to win last year)
8/8 had experience of the cross country course
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Form Preview
Three horses vie for favouritism here: Arabella Boy, Outlaw Pete, and Uncle Junior. They're followed in close proximity in the market by Bostons Angel, Sizing Australia and Big Shu. But I don't make the race anywhere near as competitive as that! In fact, I reckon there are only four which can win, and only three which I think might win...
Last year's winner, Balthazar King, just clung on from the fourteen-year-old, A New Story, but is a late non-runner due to the soft ground. In my view, both of them benefited from the losses of Garde Champetre and Scotsirish, two classy horses who were almost certain to have played a hand in the finish.
He wasn't my idea of the winner, especially not on soft ground. Firstly, he hadn't run since mid-November and that had to be a concern. And secondly, he was beaten by the very slow Uncle Junior on that last run when he (Balthazar) was match fit. He'd had three months off prior to winning last year, so may go best fresh, but this is a long way to last out in the mud if you're only 98% ready. Anyway, he doesn't now go, so it's all immaterial.
The first of my trio of possibles is Outlaw Pete. He's really come to himself since trying cross country, and is a Festival virgin. Despite that, he's competed in both the course trials in November and December last year, finishing third on his first sight of the track and winning the other attempt by seven lengths from Bostons Angel (Uncle Junior and Arabella Boy both uncharacteristically unseated riders that day).
He's been kept on the boil since, with two runs in conventional handicap chases, where he's performed respectably, and I think he'll take a lot of beating on a course he now knows well enough. He looks nailed on for the frame, bar a fall or a 'wrong course' farce.
Arabella Boy is the latest off the Enda Bolger production line - Bolger's won this race four of the eight times it's been run - and as such is sure to have been extremely well drilled. The Boy has become something of a Punchestown cross country specialist, but unseated on his only attempt so far round Cheltenham's tied shoelace circuit. The ground has come right for him, as all his five career wins have been on soft or heavy going.
And the last one I'm drawn to is that old warhorse, A New Story. Yes, he's FIFTEEN years old. And what a story it would be if A New Story could win. If you think it's fanciful, then consider that he was beaten the length of a betting slip last year, and has a full record in this race of 34132. That's more impressive than any other runner, and though he could be regressive now, he's a big enough price to take a chance, off a similarly low profile build up to previous years.
Uncle Junior, Bostons Angel, and Sizing Australia are all too slow to win this; and Big Shu will be having only his second start outside of hunter chase/bumper fields, and his first sight of Cheltenham's track. That's enough for me to say 'no way'.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Tips
Arabella Boy will have everything to suit and looks the most likely winner, and at a fair price (around 5/1) as well. Outlaw Pete should also go very well. A New Story is a huge price and that - coupled with his race record - merits a throwaway investment.
Most likely Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner: Arabella Boy
Other strong contender: Outlaw Pete
Best each way bet: A New Story
Best Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Bookmaker Offer
If your horse is fifth, BetFred will refund the place part of each way bets as a free bet. (Not great, but better than nothing!)
4.40 OLBG MARES´ HURDLE Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) (2m4f)
OLBG Mares' Hurdle Key Stats
Quevega has won this race for the last four years, and there have only been five renewals.
OLBG Mares' Hurdle Form Preview
This is a race which, from a win perspective, is extremely Quevega-centric. Willie Mullins' fragile mare has been raced ever-so-sparingly in recent seasons. Indeed, for the past three years, she's had two runs per season: here and in the Punchestown stayers' hurdle. And she's won both races. All three times!
She bids for an impressive five-timer in this race and is about ten pounds clear on ratings. Without unnecessarily complicating the issue, Quevega will win barring accidents. She's a fair price at just north of 1-2, in my opinion (if you like trading two's to get one's).
So, the battle is for the places, and that's a much more open affair. Last year, although Quevega put four lengths between herself and the rest in the bunch sprint that concluded that race, the next nine home were separated by just three lengths!
The mare I like most to follow Quevega home is the one that got closest to her last time, Kentford Grey Lady. I really like this lass. She's a smashing sort and travelling well off a strong pace with a testing run for home suits her best, as she showed at the Festival last year.
She also demonstrated it when winning at Sandown, and when third behind Reve de Sivola and Oscar Whisky last time. Her two defeats - RdS/OW aside - this season were in slowly run small field contests which I don't believe play to her strengths.
In a race which seems always to have more quantity than quality, she's a rare mare with talent in there. And her battling attribute means she's a pretty decent bet for the places.
Une Artiste has been super-consistent and, with hindsight, was a knockout price when winning the Fred Winter last year at 40/1. She's won six of her eight hurdle races, and only a fourth against the boys in the Adonis Hurdle and a refused to race blot her copybook. Given that she's generally a reliable proposition to start her races, I'd not be unduly concerned by the latter incident and she looks sure to go close again.
One (fairly) lively outsider is Kauto Shiny. Obviously, any horse called Kauto gets a second look around here, and this French import is a typical Tom George type. He has a satellite yard out in France (I think), and only really brings the ones he believes could be Cheltenham prospects over. Why else would you travel when the prize money is generally so moderate in Britain?!
Anyway, Kauto Shiny ran a lovely prep race on her first UK start, when third to Ma Filleule, giving that one five pounds. She was staying on there, and that's something which must aid her on the more testing Cleeve Hill course.
OLBG Mares' Hurdle Tips
So, somewhat unspectacularly, I expect the first three in the betting to be the first three home, though I think the short favourite will win and I think Kentford Grey Lady offers better place value than Une Artiste. Kauto Shiny looks interesting at a big price to make the frame.
Obvious win selection: Quevega
Best each way/forecast option: Kentford Grey Lady
Lively outsiders: Kauto Shiny
5.15 REWARDS4RACING NOVICES´ HANDICAP CHASE (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-140) (2m 4 1/2f)
Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase Key Stats
A fairly new race this, with just eight runnings so far.
8/8 finished first or second last time out.
7/8 beaten on first two chase starts
7/8 from top five in the betting
6/8 aged seven
Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase Form Preview
This is a plotters' paradise, with good horses improving on apparently moderate chase form prior to their third run, in general. Copper Bleu won from three pounds below his hurdle rating; Chapoturgeon within two pounds of his hurdle rating; and Finger Onthe Pulse from a whopping thirteen pounds below his hurdle figure;
Horses which look ahead of the handicapper based on hurdle ratings or form profile are Colour Squadron, Carlito Brigante, Ohio Gold, and Restless Harry.
Carlito Brigante has previously won the Coral Cup here, and also bagged a novice chase in October last year, proving his liking for good ground and this course. He's been rated 137 as opposed to a hurdles rating of 153 but, because he won't want conditions too sodden, he's off the shortlist.
Colour Squadron might just be better on this softer ground, and he definitely has a decent rating here, having been rated a few pounds higher over the smaller obstacles, and he's been pretty tenderly handled in his races so far, presumably with a big day like this in mind. I've backed him at 10/1 already (win only) but am not entirely sure his jumping will stand this test.
Ohio Gold is a maiden chaser, as was 2008 winner Finger Onthe Pulse, and comes from the wily and respected Tizzard connections. He's been third on all three chase runs to date, and will be fine whatever the going. He's generally run well in bigger fields and was only twelve lengths behind First Lieutenant in the 2011 Neptune.
Restless Harry is another with an outside chance, given a chase rating nine pounds lower than his hurdle mark. His winning has all been in single figure fields though, and he might just get crowded out of it here. If he doesn't, he's rated to run well on the sort of juicy turf he loves.
Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase Tips
This is a race which almost always goes to a plot horse.
Best win option: Colour Squadron
Each way at a price: Ohio Gold
Massive outsider with a squeak: Restless Harry
And that's Monday. However it goes for you, remember this is only day one of four. There is much still to go at, but there are some tempting prospects on this first afternoon of the spectacular 2013 Cheltenham Festival.