Daily Dabble

Daily Dabble, 10th July 2013

Daily Dabble: 10/07/13

Daily Dabble: 10/07/13

Daily Dabble, 10th July 2013

Unfortunately, yesterday went the way I feared it might. Sweet Martoni was the more speculative of the two selections at 16/1 and although she ran well enough under a decent ride from Mickael Barzalona, it wasn't quite enough. As it was, she was less than 2 lengths away from the money back in 5th place, but she was by no means disgraced.

The safer option, Bapak Muda, didn't fare quite as well as I thought he might, as he was beaten late in the final furlong by a 33/1 shot. E/W Singles backers will have just about got their stakes back from a 5/1 second placed finish.

Not really good enough, if I'm brutally honest and I expect better today, starting with the..

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4.40 Yarmouth

Tornado Battle is a half-brother to At The Brink, a winner of some 13 races at a mile or shorter and also to Juniper Pass, a US Grade 2 winner over a mile, so there's plenty in the breeding to suggest he'll have some pace. He ran very green on debut, finishing 5th of 6, but has been away from the track since that debut almost five months ago. Trainer mark Johnston is very good at taking horses away for lengthy breaks and then returning to win with seven winners from twenty-five this season alone with horses coming off breaks of 3 to 6 months. This doesn't look a strong contest at all and he looks massively overpriced at odds of up to 11/1 in places, although a more realistic 8/1 seems the general consensus.

8.40 Worcester

Fairyinthewind is till very unexposed at this level with just three NH starts to date and she makes her handicap debut this evening. She was, admittedly, very disappointing last time out when running at Wincanton off a stiff weight, but she had looked very good when landing a maiden hurdle by seven lengths over today's course and distance on her previous outing. I wouldn't be at all surprised if she made a big impact now sent out in handicap company and if her jumping holds up, I'd expect her to be there or thereabouts at the close. Speed between the hurdles should be an issue with this one, as she has plenty of good runs under her belt on the flat at trips of up to 1m 2f and achieved an Official Rating of 74.  The current odds of 7/1 look fair to me and I think she has a very good chance of landing what looks like an open contest.

Today's double pays 89/1 BOG today with Bet365, whilst the place element is priced at just over 13/2 (6.68/1 to be exact).

Back Tornado BattleFairyinthewind in an each way double with Bet365 with the win part paying 89/1 (Best Odds Guaranteed)

***PS Don't forget, you can find all today's racecards right here!***

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7 replies
  1. icj says:

    With the dailydabble selections hurtling towards the -100 pt figure in less than 4 months is there any thought at geegeez towers about it’s viability ? I appreciate one or two good days could wipe out the deficit but at what stage would you expect anyone remotely serious about their betting to draw a line in the sand ?. Personally the most frustrating aspect has been the effect these selections seem to have had on the once profitable SOTD tips. To my mind they’ve suffered greatly due to the change in format.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      The first point I’d address is the correlation (or lack of) between SotD and the Daily Dabble. The two blogs are mutually exclusive and the introduction of the double has had no bearing upon SoTD’s selections and/or its performance.

      The only thing the two have in common is that they are both generally (but not wholly) written by me. And since I write those pieces, I can categorically say that one doesn’t have any bearing on the other.

  2. icj says:

    SoTD has been a superb addition to the site and very successful. But it’s changed since the appearance of the daily dabble. The vast majority of selections are between the 2/1-5/1 mark and are 1pt win, as opposed to the bigger e/w pokes of last year. Suppose i’ll just have to lump it and try and find my own from now on !

    Thanks for the reply and all the very best for the future guys.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      We did an analysis about the bigger E/W selections and it was shown that they weren’t as profitable as the sub 6/1 stuff we’re currently concentrating on.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Col

      I would say that we’ve obviously been disappointed with how DD has gone, and we’ve been mulling a change to the approach for a while. I think, in part triggered by your question, we’re going to change to a shorter priced win only double, which will be on trial until the end of the month. If it goes well, we’ll persist. If not, we’ll wave bye bye to DD. There’s little point continuing with something where the big win double is such an elusive beast. It does show how hard it is to land a double from just two picks!

      Matt

  3. Paul D says:

    Difficult to call this one as clearly the double isn’t working by itself, however as a source of additional information and single tips it’s not doing too badly, as shown by a 7/1 winner tonight (which of course I forgot to put on!).I’ve very quickly treated the double as a low stake speculative punt and focused on one or both of the selections, so from my point of view it’s still a useful service and I’d miss it.

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