Daily Dabble, 27th June 2013
One in the frame and one just out of it yesterday, meant no pick up and we'll try again this afternoon.
Let's start with the...
Big Time Billy is worth taking on at little better than even money in what is a competitive handicap. Yes, he's won five in a row, but four of those were over three miles and hurdles. His only flat win in that sequence was a neck victory over this two mile trip off a rating of 57. On his three previous flat turf starts, he'd finished 434 and he might just get done for speed.
Against him, I'll take Rock Relief, himself a decent hurdler - winner of a Class 3 affair a couple of starts back. On the level, he was also a winner last time out, beating the same horse Big Time Billy did - Kodicil - a head. BTB beat him a neck, so there's nothing in it on that score. Rock Relief gave Kodicil five pounds, while BTB was in receipt of five. Today, Rock Relief gives BTB eight pounds, which effectively makes him two pounds well in. Ye follow?
Anyway, pounds and lengths aside, Rock Relief has very good course form, won't mind the ground, has been placed in five of his six Class 4 runs (winning once), and is in great form. He's about a 14/1 shot which is too big.
If we're still going, we'll have something to cheer in the second leg, which is the...
First Class was just touched off here last time time under identical conditions, by a 20/1 shot. He himself was a 16/1 shot but not unfancied. He's a seven furlong winner and has course and distance form figures of 32302. The 0 was on good to soft ground with all the placed efforts on good to firm or firm. Tonight it is good to firm, meaning our boy has another sound chance.
This is a drop in class for him - it was a Class 4 race last time - and he's in off bottom weight. He has three career victories from just 17 runs, and a further five places, making him pretty consistent.
He's 6/1 in places, and the double pays 104/1 BOG today with Stan James, with the place element running at just over 10.25/1
Back Rock Relief & First Class in an each way double with Stan James, the win part paying 104/1 (Best Odds Guaranteed)