Daily Dabble, 31st May 2013
No complaints about bad luck etc from yesterday as Mafi drifted in the market from our 8/1 out to 10/1, but gave a reasonable enough account of himself, before being outpaced late on. The end result was 6th of 9, but he was only four lengths off the winner and two lengths outside the money. That, of course, rendered Flameseeker's run largely irrelevant and it was just as well really. He showed very little and looked to be in reverse during the latter stages, before trailing home a distant 7th of 8 runners.
Mafi was still a decent enough pick, but Flameseeker was disappointing and I have far more hope of a return with two friday evening selections which start with the...
Viking Warrior won this contest a year ago carrying 5lbs more than he'll be asked to this evening. he has been running respectably of late without breaking any posts, but a return to Catterick generally sees him at his best. He has a career place strike of over 41% on the turf and despite only winning four of his 29 starts on grass, all four of his wins have been over today's trip and his record here over Course and Distance is two wins and five places from ten. This 70% place strike rate is more than enough to justify an E/W bet today, as he'll hopefully improve the already decent 50% ROI he has produced here and at prices as high as 8/1, he looks good value.
As I alluded to in today's Stat of the Day piece, I expect Small Fury to run well again today. She's a lightly raced, yet consistent and still progressive filly who runs only her seventh race and apart from finishing 4th on one occasion, has never been out of the places, winning two of those races. She has run twice at bath before, finishing second and third for trainer Jo Hughes, whose horses are running really well here at Bath this year, with three wins and three places from just ten attempts, rewarding E/W backers with profits of over 14pts (70%) at SP. The 6/1 currently on offer here looks more than fair.
The double pays 62/1 today and the place part is priced at just over 9/2 (4.72/1), both with either of Stan James or William Hill (BOG, of course!).
Back Viking Warrior and Small Fury in an each way double with either of Stan James or William Hill, the win part paying 62/1 (Best Odds Guaranteed)