Daily Dabble, 9th April 2013

Daily Dabble : 08/04/13

Daily Dabble : 09/04/13

Daily Dabble, 9th April 2013

Another Mattie was a non-runner yesterday, and Mazij - wouldn't you know it? - got run out of the places late and finished a close up fourth at 13/2, having been friendless in the betting.

Must try harder. We'll double up at Carlisle today, starting with the riskier of the pair in the...

2.20 Carlisle

Taking the third choice in a six horse race means we need one of the top two to underperform, and I think that's entirely possible here. The favourite, Dolatulo, won a jumpers' bumper at Southwell last time but that shouldn't disguise the fact that he finds it very hard to win. Indeed, he'd not previously won for seventeen races! He does have some high class form, but the pick of it is all on softer than today's good ground.

Second favourite is Drill Sergeant, another high class type making his chase debut for a trainer who is bang out of form. He might not jump well, and he might be under the McCain cloud. Or he might win. But he's worth opposing at the price.

Which brings me, eventually, to Alta Rock, a horse which loves fast ground. His two wins have been on good and good to firm over hurdles, and he's got the benefit of a run over the bigger obstacles. I'm pretty sure he'll run better on quicker today, as his form on good or faster is 3011 and on slower is 6P7724. He's around the 6/1 mark.

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I'm doubling him up with ...

3.50 Carlisle

An open looking handicap, but one horse stands out to me. Wayne Manor was a decent enough flat horse, and his three runs over hurdles so far were surely to get today's handicap mark. He races off 100 here, but with the four year old allowance carries just 10-09, and he will be expected to fare much better than the 656 form figures he's achieved to date.

This is his fourth run off a layoff and, combined with a half mile step up in trip (he won over two miles on the flat), he can go close. He's around the 5/1 peg.

The win double pays 89/2 with BetFred, best odds guaranteed. The place double pays just under 5/1.

Back Alta Rock and Wayne Manor in an each way double with BetFred with the win part paying 89/2 (Best Odds Guaranteed)

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5 replies
  1. Lucky says:

    Two good looking selections today Matt. Let’s hope for a bit more luck this time.
    Again I’ve added two to make my yankee in the shape of Queen Aggie in the 3.10 Pont and Mucky Molly in the 5.05 Southwell, currently at 14/1 and 13/2 respectively. Would be nice to make a four-timer for a change.
    All the best
    Cheers

    • Mike A says:

      Due a payout, E/W double done and just for fun Lucky I’m following you in with a yankee. Cheers
      Mike

  2. Matt Bisogno says:

    Well I don’t know what to say. Alta Rock was tailed off, beaten by two complete no-hopers. There was money for it this morning, and that’s gone horribly adrift. Unfortunately, so has our daily dabble today.

    I do hope a few of you were on SotD pick, Dolphin Rock, which won at 9/2 (advised at 15/2)

    Matt

  3. Chris says:

    ok this is with the beauty of hindsight and i dont mean to criticise your skills, but i’m struggling to get to grips with the logic of todays selection Alta Rock. I only have an occasional peek at this when I get home just to see how its going and I guess I’m regularly picking the off days or its hitting a bit of a downswing. Anyway, I dont understand picking a horse in a 6 runner race hoping one of the top two has an off day, especially when one is such a short price. Surely you are looking at horses that have a reasonable chance of winning and if not agood chance of placing. I just think Alta Rock’s theory of getting a place throws away half the stake. I hope I haven’t upset you with this and made myself understood correctly. It’s just that with only 2 places up for grabs and hoping one of the top two underperforms seems a little bit shaky to me especially when there’s still the chance of another horse sneaking a place as well.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Chris, nobody is asking you to back this.

      The logic is simple: horse goes on decent ground; trainer in form; bits of money for the horse in the morning. That’s a strong (and potent, overall) combination.

      I also made cases for why the first two in the market might underperform. It was a novice chase as well, which means jumping has to come up to scratch.

      Honestly – and don’t take this the wrong way – if you can’t see the logic there, then the issue isn’t mine.

      Matt

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