3.10 & 3.45 (two divisions): Favourites have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst eight of the ten winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less. Richard Fahey (saddled Blades Boy in the 3.45) has won three of the last seven contests and comes to the gig on a hat trick this time around.
4.20: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 3-2 via the last five renewals. Three of the seven favourites (via six renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include one (4/1) winner. David Nicholls saddles Mister Manannan having won two of the six contests with 20/1 and 6/1 gold medallists.
1.45: Barry Hills had saddled four of the last seven winners before his son Charlie took over the license last year. Charlie saddles Estifzaaz this time around. Three favourites have won via the last eight contests.
2.20: Nine favourites have prevailed during the last fifteen years, whilst twelve market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions. Thirteen of the last fifteen gold medallists were returned at odds of 5/1 or less, the other winners having both scored at 10/1. Favourites come to this year’s gig on a six timer, whilst this race has proved to be a positive pointer towards Royal Ascot in the last six years. The 2009 winner (Art Connoisseur) went to win the Coventry Stakes whilst Gilded followed up by landing the ’Queen Mary’ having won this contest four years ago. Sandwiched in between was Spirit Of Sharjah who finished third in the Norfolk Stakes before running second in the ’Flying Childers’ later in the season. The 2011 winner Jack Who’s He was ‘only’ beaten six and a quarter lengths in the ’Coventry’ when sent off a no hoper at odds of 50/1.
3.30: Richard Hannon grabs the headlines here, as the trainer has snared three gold, four silver and two bronze medals during the last fifteen years. Richard saddles Emell and Alhebayeb this time around. Three of the last seven favourites have prevailed, whilst nine of the last fifteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions (four winners). All fifteen winners during the study period were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.
4.10: Five favourites have won this trial for the 1,000 Guineas in recent times, whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the fifteen year study period. The last three winners have scored at 28/1-14/1-6/1 hailing from the respective top yards of Richard Hannon, Richard Fahey and Mick Channon.
4.40: Seven of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the last fourteen years, statistics which include three winners. Mark Johnston saddles Alta Lelia this time around, having saddled four of the last nine winners.
5.15: John Gosden has declared his Galileo colt Space Ship who will be John’s sixth runner in the race, the trainer having saddled 20/1 and 7/1 winners in the contest thus far. We still await the first successful market leaders following five renewals.
5.45: Nine renewals have slipped by since a horse carried 9-7 to victory in the finale.
CHELTENHAM NH DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Cheltenham: 35
Favourite stats: 13 (37.1%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 4/6
Leading trainers of winners at Cheltenham in 2013:
6--Nicky Henderson (5/2-1/5*-1/4*-16/1-8/15*-11/4*)
5--Willie Mullins (25/1-9/4*-8/11*-13/8*-5/1)
2--Rebecca Curtis (7/1 & 11/8*)
2--Tony Martin (20/1 & 10/1)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (11/4* & 25/1)
2--Colin Tizzard (28/1 & 7/2)
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (16/1 & 7/2)
2--Venetia Williams (4/1* & 50/1)
23/35 winners have been returned at odds of 10/1 or less
Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--P. Nicholls (10/11-4/1-6/1**-5/2)
4--David Pipe (5/2-7/2-11/8-9/4)
3--Nicky Henderson (9/4-15/8-5/2)
2--John Ferguson (8/1** & 6/1**)
2--Donald McCain (13/2 & 11/2)
Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Six of the last ten renewals have been secured by the favourite whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 7/1. Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners during the study period, whilst six year-olds have secured six of the last eight contests, coming to this year’s gig on a five timer.
Three and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.45: Five of the six favourites have finished out of the frame (via five renewals), albeit the other market leader won the respective event at 2/1. Ten of the fifteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum weight of 11-3, including the last four winners at 12/1-15/2-15/2-2/1.
Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.20: Philip Hobbs has saddled three of the last four winners and the trainer held two options for this year’s renewal at the time of writing.
Grade 2 Silver Trophy Chase scheduled for 3.55: Favourites have won five contests during the last eleven years, with Paul Nicholls (four entries this time around) having saddled four gold medallists during the period. Eight-year-olds come to this year’s gig on a five timer.
Three mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.20: Nine of the last ten winners have carried weights of 10-10 or more, whilst favourites have secured four of the last eight contests. Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last eight winners, with six, seven and eight-year-olds having won every contest during the last decade.. Nine winners during the last eleven years have won at odds of 9/1 or less.
Class 2 novice chase scheduled for 4.55: Although ‘only’ four favourites have won during the last eleven years (market leaders come to the party on a four timer this time around), the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at just 6/1. Seven-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals and with four of the eleven penultimate entries hailing from the vintage, seven-year-olds were 7/4 to extend the run before form was taken into consideration.
Michael (JM) Murphy is a jockey who has sneaked under the radar to good effect at Kempton of late, having ridden nine winners via a 23% strike rate whilst amassing an LSP reading of seven points.