Juvenile event scheduled for 1.45: Five favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst ten market leaders snared toteplacepot positions during the period. The biggest priced winner during the last decade was an 11/1 chance (2011). Richard Hannon (three options this time around) has saddled three winners during the last decade, statistics which include two of the last three gold medallists.
‘Wood Ditton’ scheduled for 2.20: Ten of the eighteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the fifteen year study period.
‘Tattersalls Millions’ event scheduled for 2.55: All four favourites have finished out with the washing behind winners returned at 25/1 & 10/1 (Richard Hannon), 9/1 (Michael Bell) and 8/1 (John Gosden).
Listed ‘Abernant Stakes’ scheduled for 3.30: Four-year-olds have won six renewals during the last fifteen years, whilst claiming seventeen of the forty four available toteplacepot positions during the study period. Three market leaders have prevailed (within the last nine years), whilst seven of the sixteen favourites have reached the frame during the study period.
Group 3 ‘Craven Stakes’ due to be contested at 4.05: Nine of the sixteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the study period. Favourites have won four of the last six renewals, the other recent winners having scored at 9/4 & 9/2). Richard Hannon was responsible for five of the fourteen penultimate stage declarations, the trainer having secured three of the last five available toteplacepot positions. Richard saddled last year’s 9/2 winner whilst securing the 20/1 forecast dividend.
‘Earl of Sefton’ event scheduled for 4.45: Four-year-olds have claimed nine of the last fifteen renewals whilst securing over half (22/38) of the available toteplacepot positions. Eleven of the seventeen market leaders have reached the frame (three winners) during the study period.
Three-year-old maiden event for fillies scheduled for 5.20: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last nine winners and with Ryan Moore already booked to ride Call Ahead (one of two options for the trainer this time around), the Three Valleys filly will be on my short list, albeit she lacks big race entries at this moment in time. Nine winners during the last eleven years have been returned at odds of 15/2 or less, statistics which include three successful favourites.
Eight renewals had slipped by since a favourite prevailed until last year’s successful 2/1 market leader obliged in the closing one and a quarter mile handicap contest which is scheduled for 5.45. Mark Johnston has secured two of the last four contests with the trainer holding just the one option on this occasion. The horse in question is Mark’s Galileo filly Alta Lilea who was also entered in a race on Wednesday’s card at the venue. An Epsom Derby entry at the time of writing, the beaten favourite scored at the first time of asking last year under good to soft conditions.
Eleven favourites obliged via the first twenty eight races at Ripon last season (first four meetings) which equates to a strike rate of 39.3% (well above average), with twenty one winners scoring at odds of 9/1 or less.
Sir Henry Cecil (10/1-3/1**-Evs*) and Richard Fahey (11/2-7/2**-10/3) led the way with three winners, with two apiece for Mark Johnston (5/2* & 8/11*), Tim Easterby (14/1 & 13/2), Bill Turner (14/1 & 9/2*) and Elaine Burke (50/1 & 5/4*). These six trainers accounted for half the winners at Ripon during the study period.
CHELTENHAM NH DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Cheltenham: 35
Favourite stats: 13 (37.1%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 4/6
Leading trainers of winners at Cheltenham in 2013:
6--Nicky Henderson (5/2-1/5*-1/4*-16/1-8/15*-11/4*)
5--Willie Mullins (25/1-9/4*-8/11*-13/8*-5/1)
2--Rebecca Curtis (7/1 & 11/8*)
2--Tony Martin (20/1 & 10/1)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (11/4* & 25/1)
2--Colin Tizzard (28/1 & 7/2)
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (16/1 & 7/2)
2--Venetia Williams (4/1* & 50/1)
23/35 winners have been returned at odds of 10/1 or less
Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--P. Nicholls (10/11-4/1-6/1**-5/2)
4--David Pipe (5/2-7/2-11/8-9/4)
3--Nicky Henderson (9/4-15/8-5/2)
2--John Ferguson (8/1** & 6/1**)
2--Donald McCain (13/2 & 11/2)
Two mile five furlong handicap chase for novices scheduled for 2.35: The last four winners have scored at 33/1-14/1-10/1-6/1 whilst three other winners during the last eleven years were returned at odds ranging between 10/1 and 12/1. Eight of the fifteen market leaders have secured win and place positions during the study period, stats which include three successful favourites. Five of the last seven winners have carried 11-3 or more.
Listed handicap hurdle event over two miles & five furlongs scheduled for 3.10: Nicky Henderson comes to the party on a hat trick with two options at the time of writing. One on favourite has obliged in the last six years though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was a 17/2 chance. Five and six-year-olds have (equally) secured eight of the last ten renewals.
Twenty five furlong handicap chase event due to be contested at 3.45: Three favourites (5/1-9/2-9/2) have won during the last decade during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 17/2 which is a phenomenal stat relating to long distance handicap chases. Nine-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-4 during the study period, whilst both Philip Hobbs and Paul Nicholls have secured a brace of winners apiece of late. Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-12.
Three mile Class 2 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals whilst the only successful (two) favourites during the period emerged in the last three years. That said, nine-year olds have won three of the last five contests. Only three of the twelve favourites secured toteplacepot positions. Paul Nicholls (three options at the time of writing) was saddling his third winner in the last eight years twelve months ago.
Conditional jockeys’ event scheduled for 4.55: Three of the seven favourites (via five renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions, stats which include one successful (3/1) joint market leader. Cruchain (Dai Burchell) comes to the gig on a hat trick, having been the only horse to complete the course twelve months ago.
Four and five-year-olds have shared the last ten renewals of the mares bumper event, scheduled for 5.25. Nicky Henderson has secured four of the last eight contests.
Gerard Butler had just two horses entered for races this week at the time of writing, one of which was here at Wolverhampton where course and distance winner (from his only start to date) Welsh Sunrise was due to contest the 8.25 event. Gerard boasts a 24% strike rate (via twenty one winners) at the venue, stats which are backed up by an LSP reading of fifty points.