‘John Porter’ event scheduled for 1.50: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests. Three favourites have won during the last eight years during which time, seven gold medallists were returned at a top price of 13/2.
Newbury Spring Cup scheduled for 2.20: Four-year-olds have won ten renewals during the last fifteen years whilst claiming thirty of the sixty available toteplacepot positions in the process! Six of the seventeen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via fourteen renewals in the last fifteen years, statistics which include one (9/2 joint favourite) winner.
(draw details--eight furlongs)
7-21-8-11 (22 ran-soft)
10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)
12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)
20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)
11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)
11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)
13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)
22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)
26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)
14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)
20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)
6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)
14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)
‘Fred Darling’ scheduled for 2.55: Mick Channon has saddled four winners during the last eleven years, though Mick is without an entry this year (stat retained for those of you who keep records). My attention is turned to Ralph Beckett accordingly, the trainer have declared Waterway Run on this occasion, Ralph having won three of the last eight renewals. The Arch filly was beaten just four lengths in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile last year having won the ‘Oh So Sharp’ at Newmarket in pleasing style on her previous start.
‘Greenham Stakes’ scheduled for 3.30: Richard Hannon has saddled four winners during the last eleven years with Richard potentially being represented by Olympic Glory (Richard Hughes already ’jocked up’) and Havana Gold this time around.
NOTTINGHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Nottingham: 7
Favourite stats: 2 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 0/1
Trainers of winners at Nottingham in 2013:
1/1--Mrs K. Burke (9/4)
1/1--Robert Cowell (6/5*)
1/1--Tim Pitt (14/1)
1/2--Mel Brittain (40/1)
1/2--Ed Dunlop (6/4*)
1/3--Ralph Beckett (11/1)
1/4--Richard Fahey (14/1)
4/7 winners were returned at odds of 11/1 or more
Trainers of beaten favourites:
2--Andrew Balding (7/2 & 7/4)
1--Michael Bell (7/4)
1--Luca Cumani (11/10)
1--Ed Dunlop (5/6)
Five furlong fillies handicap scheduled for 6.30: Only one favourite has obliged via the eight contests during the last decade, albeit six golf medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less. Six winners carried 8-13 or more to victory.
Three-year-old handicap scheduled for 7.00: The last eleven winners all carried weights of 8-13 or more to victory.
Class 6 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 8.00: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last six contests during which time, five winners scored at a top price of 6/1 (favourite).
Class 5 six furlong maiden event scheduled for 2.50: Only one successful favourite to report via the last nine renewals. Three-year-olds have won every contest during the last decade.
Class 3 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 3.25: Winners at 181/-14/1-12/1-12/1-17/2 have accompanied the only successful favourite in this contest to date via just the six renewals. Four-year-olds have won three contests, whilst five winners were burdened with a minimum weight of nine stones.
Seven furlongs conditions event scheduled for 5.10: We still await the first winning favourite following six renewals of the race, albeit the top priced winner to date was a 6/1 chance. Richard Fahey and David Nicholls (both with entries at the time of writing) have saddled a brace of winners thus far.
AYR NH DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Ayr: 49
Favourite stats: 24 (49.0% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/12 (66.7%)
Leading trainers of winners at Ayr in 2013:
10--Donald McCain (5/4*-Evs*-8/15*-5/4*-9/4**-8/13*-2/9*-5/1**-7/2-8/11*)
9--Lucinda Russell (7/2-5/6*-4/9*-5/4*-7/2-11/8**-2/1*-5/1-10/3*)
5--Jim Goldie (12/1-6/1-10/1-6/1-13/8*)
4--J.J. Lambe (16/1-4/1-8/1-9/4*)
3--Nick Alexander (11/4-5/1-7/1)
44/49 winners scored at a top price of 10/1
Trainers of most beaten favourites:
5--Donald McCain (11/8**-13/8-9/4**-11/10-11/10)
4--David Pipe (4/6-8/11-11/8-6/5)
2--Nick Alexander (9/4** & 10/3)
2--Lucinda Russell (5/1** & 11/8)
‘Future Champion Novice chase’ scheduled for 2.05: The biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned last year at 8/1, whilst four favourites scored during the period. Paul Nicholls has saddled winners at 7/2-3/1-11/4-9/4 during the study period. Paul held two options at the five day stage.
Scottish Champion Hurdle scheduled for 2.40: The previous ten winners had carried weights of 10-13 or less before an Alan King representative won last year despite being burdened with 11-6. Six-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst nine winners during the last decade scored at odds of 17/2 or less, statistics which include two clear market leaders and one joint favourite.
Scottish Grand National scheduled for 3.50: Only four of the fourteen favourites during the last eleven years finished in the frame (no winners). Horses aged eight or more have won seventeen of the last eighteen renewals. Eight-year-olds have won seven of the relevant contests. Tony McCoy has not ridden the winner of the Scottish National since 1997, his one and only success in the contest to date.
Novice handicap chase scheduled for 5.00: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last nine contests, whilst successful market leaders during the last decade are only conspicuous by their absence.
BANGOR NH DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Bangor: 14
Favourite stats: 7 (50.0% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 2/3 (66.7%)
Leading trainers of winners at Bangor in 2013:
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (15/2 & 11/4**)
13/14 winners were returned at odds of 15/2 or less
Trainers of most beaten favourites:
3--Donald McCain (11/10-5/6-2/1)
George Baker held a couple of entries on this card earlier in the week, the trainer boasting a healthy strike rate of 22% via forty winners at Dunstall Park, statistics which are backed up by an LSP reading of twenty six points.