Daily Stat Pack

Daily Stat Pack, 29th November 2013

Daily Stat Pack

Daily Stat Pack

FRIDAY 29/11:



Number of races at Doncaster: 42
Favourite stats: 20 (47.6%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 7/10 (70.0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Doncaster in 2013:
4--Nicky Henderson (4/11*-11/4**-5/2-9/4*)
4--Paul Nicholls (85/40-4/5*-Evs*-13/8*)
4--Keith Reveley (20/1-7/2-9/1-9/4*)
3--John Ferguson (11/2-10/11*-Evs*)
3--John Quinn (14/1-7/4*-7/2)
2--Henry Daly (11/2 & 15/2)
2--Venetia Williams (5/2* & 6/1)

Over half of the winners (22/42) have emerged from just seven stables

38/42 winners sent off at odds of 9/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--Paul Nicholls (11/4**-4/7-9/2-7/4**)
3--Alan King (3/1-9/4-13/2)
2--James Ewart (5/2 & 9/2)
2--Nicky Henderson (Evs & 11/10)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (2/1 & 5/1)
2--Jeremy Scott (7/2 & 7/4)
2--Tim Vaughan (3/1 & 1/2)




Number of races at Musselburgh: 43
Favourite stats: 16 (37.2% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 5/8 (62.5%)

Leading trainers of winners at Musselburgh in 2013:
8--Donald McCain (4/6*-1/5*-5/2-1/5*-17/2-7/4*-7/2-13/2)
3--Brian Ellison (7/1-9/2-5/1)
3--Venetia Williams (7/2-5/2*-9/4*)

42/43 winners (97.7%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

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Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--Donald McCain (5/2-4/9-11/10-10/11)
2--Rose Dobbin (5/4 & 11/4)
2--James Ewart (7/4 twice)
2--Peter Niven (4/1 & 7/4)
2--Nicky Richards (7/2 & 11/4)
2--Venetia Williams (3/1 & 12/5)




Number of races at Newbury: 42
Favourite stats: 18 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 4/6 (66.7%)

Leading trainers of winners at Newbury in 2013:
7--Paul Nicholls (5/4*-8/11*-4/5*-5/1-18/1-5/4*-5/4*)
4--Nicky Henderson (5/4*-5/1*-Evs*-1/16*)
3--Harry Fry (7/4*-15/8*-11/4*)

37/42 winners (88.1%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less.

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--David Pipe (3/1-4/1-11/4-11/10)
3--Nicky Henderson (9/4-5/2**-10/11)
3--Paul Nicholls (6/1**-5/2-2/5)
2--Alan King (6/4 & 6/1)
2--Richard Lee (4/1 & 3/1)
2--Tim Vaughan (3/1 & 10/3)

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.30: Paul Nicholls has saddled just eight runners in the lasteleven renewals of this novice hurdle event, and three of the Ditcheat raiders have snared gold, though his last three favourites (1/4-10/11-6/4) were only placed. Paul‘s only option earlier in the week was his French import Calipto. Seven favourites have won during the last sixteen years, whilst fourteen of the last sixteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less. Twelve of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

‘Pertempts’ three mile qualifier scheduled for 1.30: Seven of the eight favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions (five winners), though a 33/1 winner brought relief to the layers twelve months ago. Phillip Hobbs led in Fair Along last year having secured his third victory in the race within the last six years. Philip held two options for the contest at the penultimate entry stage.

Two and a half mile novice chase (Berkshire Chase) scheduled for 2.05: Nicky Henderson has secured five of the last thirteen renewals (including three of the last five contests) and the trainer’s only entry at the five day stage was Close Touch. Six favourites have won during the last eleven years, whilst the last fifteen winners have scored at 10/1 or less. Ten of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the extended study period.

Class 2 handicap chase event over two and a half miles due to be contested at 2.40: Six renewals have slipped by without a successful market leader having been recorded, whilst seven-year-olds have secured four of the last nine renewals. Vintage representatives come to the gig on a hat trick this time around. Colin Tizzard invariably raids this contest, having won two of the last four renewals and it’s worth noting that his potential runner Theatrical Star is a seven-year-old who should have (good/soft) ground conditions in his favour by the time that flag fall arrives.

Five-year-olds come to the party on a four timer in the novice hurdle for mares on the card which is scheduled for 3.15. Just one of the eight contests thus far has been won by a market leader, albeit the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 9/2.

Class 3 Maiden Hurdle scheduled for 3.45: Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals, whilst Nicky Henderson has claimed three victories during the last eleven years. Seven of the twelve favourites have won to date, the other five starting prices being returned at 50/1-16/1-8/1-11/2-7/2. Nine of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame.



No of races: 113
Favourite stats: 42 (37.2%--includes joint/co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/16 (50.0%)

Leading trainers at Wolverhampton:
9/33--David Evans (4/1***-4/1-7/2*-22/1-9/2*-5/4*-8/1-9/1-7/2*)
4/17--Michael Appleby (5/6*-7/2-4/1-5/4*)
3/6--Christine Dunnett (9/2-7/2-8/1)
3/7--Saeed Bin Suroor (8/11*-10/11*-2/1*)
3/9--Phil McBride (9/4-50/1-5/4*)
3/12-Tom Dascombe (11/10*-7/1-6/4*)
3/25--Mark Johnston (13/8*-7/1-15/2)
3/27--David O'Meara (16/1-5/1-11/1)

104/113 (92.0%) of winners returned at odds of 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of beaten favourites:
6--David Evans (7/4-2/1-9/4-4/1**-7/2**-4/1**)
5--Mark Johnston (5/2-Evs-10/3-13/8-11/4)
4--James Tate (11/8-5/4-7/4-11/4)
3--Marco Botti (5/4-13/8-Evs)
3--Keith Dalgleish (5/2-5/2-2/1)
3--Tim Easterby (6/4-5/2-3/1**)
3--Shaun Harris (2/1-3/1-5/2)
3--David O'Meara (4/6-11/10-9/2)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/1-8/13-4/11)

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7 replies
  1. Martin says:

    Hello Mal…..as ever a great write up.

    Found your analysis of the 2.40 at Newbury interesting, mentioning that C Tizzard has won two of the last four renewals of this race. Think Theatrical Star is well treated with conditions being in his favour and being bottom weight could run a big race.

    All the best Martin

  2. Mal
    Mal says:

    Cheers Martin….Theatrical Star has come in for a great deal of support this morning….here’s hoping!

  3. ynwajim says:

    Great stuff mal, this post always points to a few winners during the week – i do like the trainer habits info and how they target certain races. With that said I have had a bit on theatrical star, and also Cantlow – all his wins have come with a 16-30 day break, he rarely gets those conditions, some smart cheltenham festival form as well – we shall see.
    Your post has pointed me to the hobbs horses in the 1.30 – have an ew bet on arthurian legend – maybe speculative but has the form/hanciap mark to go close if reverting to hurles and blinkers do the trick, couldnt ignore 28/1!

    thanks again for superb piece, a must read before any wagers are placed!


  4. ynwajim says:

    went for the wrong hobbs horse as other runner nearly wins at 33/1, was 40s! shows power of following trainers who target races though! I see nichols won the first as well!

  5. Mal
    Mal says:

    Thanks for your kind comments Josh–keep the faith Sir…and confidence in yourself of course!

  6. Mal
    Mal says:

    Great call Josh with Cantlow! Something wrong with Theatrical Star by the look of things but he would not have beaten the winner in a month of Sunday’s!

  7. ynwajim says:

    Cheers Mal, and that is why racing is the best sport around – satisfaction of solving the puzzle, spotting something and horse winning, as well as getting paid, cannot be matched!! AP always looked in control, and luckily Eater’s jumping let him down, as if has a habit to do! Jumping quite a big asset in this game!

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