Today’s opening paragraphs all relate to the Grand National and I guess the best place to start is how to place your bets, as daft as that might seem! It’s not quite as obvious as you might think because the overwhelming evidence is to ensure that you take a price about your selection, rather than leave it to the starting price fiasco which ensues at around 4 o’clock on Grand National day.
Ever since Tony McCoy’s 10/1 victory aboard don’t Push It three years ago, I have been determined to get this message across, especially as Tony’s first Grand National winner was freely available at 20/1 on the morning of the race! Here is a detailed look at the last five Grand National renewals in terms of prices:
2012: The first fifteen horses in the SP market produced an ’over round’ potential profit of 9.8% for bookmakers, leaving the other twenty-five contenders ’running for the layers’.
2011: The first seventeen horses (40 runners) in the book accounted for a potential profit of 10.7% for bookmakers.
2010: Half the field (20/40) produced a potential profit of 16.7% for the layers.
2009: The front three horses in the betting (7/1-8/1-8/1) accounted for 34.7% of the book in a race which produced a 46% total margin for layers.
2008: The first five horses in the market (full percentage of 47%) accounted for 51.5% of the figures.
Hopefully the lesson has been learned by now. Please pass this information onto ‘occasional’ punters that you know who are ‘sitting ducks’ for the bookmakers.
With some bookmakers paying down to the first six horses home from an each way perspective, these trainers/jockeys have occupied fifth and sixth positions during the last decade.
3--Paul Nicholls (33/1-16/1-14/1)
2--Donald McCain (12/1 & 7/1**)
2--Willie Mullins (14/1 & 15/2)
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (25/1 & 20/1)
1--Nicky Henderson (40/1)
1--Dessie Hughes (100/1)
1--Jonjo O'Neill (66/1)
2--Niall P Madden (100/1 & 14/1)
2--Jason Maguire (12/1 & 7/1*)
1--David Casey (14/1)
1--Noel Fehily (66/1)
1--Barry Geraghty (66/1)
1--Richie McGrath (50/1)
1--Denis O'Regan (12/1)
1--Harry Skelton (16/1)
1--Andrew Tinkler (100/1)
1--Joe Tizzard (33/1)
1--Sam Twiston Davies (20/1)
1--Sam Waley Cohen (40/1)
1--Ruby Walsh (15/2)
1--Christian Williams (14/1)
Trainers without potential runners this year and jockeys who have retired were not listed.
Let’s hope we do not witness a repeat of the type of result which occurred just six years ago!
The 2007 was a good renewal for the layers, especially from an each way perspective as the frame was filled by horses starting at 33/1-12/1-33/1-100/1, with fourteen of the first fifteen horses in the betting finishing out with the washing, statistics which included all three 8/1 co favourites. With previous winners Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter also finishing out of the money, this was one of the best (each way) results for bookmakers in recent history.
21 female jockeys have participated in the big race with last years third placed effort of Katie Walsh aboard Seabass the pick of the pilots to date.
The record of horses ridden by female jockeys:
One placed--six unplaced--fourteen failed to complete the course though to be entirely fair, eleven of those runners started at odds ranging between 100/1 and 500/1.
Fifteen Irish trained winners have been recorded, with six winners from across the Irish Sea having been successful since 1999. It's worth noting that five of those Irish winners carried a maximum burden of 10-12 which used to be the trend before Hedgehunter upset the apple cart when carrying 11-1 to victory in 2005. The previous winner to carry eleven stones was Rhyme 'N' Reason back in 1988. Things have changed now, as the last four winners have carried weights ranging between 11-0 & 11-6.
And now more specific comments relating to the action on...
Mersey novices hurdle event (Group 2) scheduled for 1.45: 13/35 renewals to date have been won by favourites, including seven of the last sixteen market leaders. Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 8-7 via the last 24 contests. Nicky Henderson had never won this race until two years ago when Spirit Son scored, with Nicky following up that success with Simonsig last year.
Group 1 Maghull Novice Chase scheduled for 2.15: Nicky ‘boasts’ exactly the same stats as for the previous race (no winners until two years ago), coming to this year’s gig on a hat trick. Paul Nicholls has won five renewals since 1999. Four of the last six market leaders have won, the biggest priced winner during the period having scored at 100/30.
Group 1 Liverpool Hurdle due to be contested at 2.50: With Big Bucks being an absentee this year, the complexion of the contest is changed beyond belief, the Paul Nicholls representative having hugely contributed to the decent record of ten successful favourites during the last eighteen years.
Listed handicap chase over three miles and one furlong scheduled for 3.25: Only one (9/2) favourite has scored during the last decade, with ten of the last eleven winners having carried a maximum burden of 11-2. Jonjo O’Neill boasts the best record in the training sector having saddled four of the last 13 winners.
Grand National scheduled for 4.15: Ten-year-olds lead the nine-year-olds 7-6 via the last seventeen renewals. Nine-year-olds have won nine of the last thirty renewals. Only five favourites have won via the last twenty-nine renewals. Irish trainers have won six of the last fourteen events. Only three grey horses have won the big race, last year’s winner being the first for fifty-one years.
Two mile handicap hurdle (Conditional/Amateur jockeys) event scheduled for 5.05: The last eighteen contests have eluded the various favourites down the years, with 13 winners being returned in double figures. The last six winners have scored at 66/1-28/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-10/1. Six-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around. Irish trainers have saddled four winners during the last decade.
Champion Bumper event scheduled for 5.35: Only one (6/5) favourite has won the closing event during the last decade, the other gold medallists having prevailed at odds ranging between 8/1 & 66/1. Five winners scored at odds of 25/1 or more during the period. Nigel Twiston leads the trainer stats with three winners since 1998. Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight renewals.
Maiden event for fillies scheduled for 2.10: Alan Swinbank had saddled three of his last five runners to winning effect at the time of writing and his raider Lady Artiste was the only filly already ‘jocked up’ with Robert Winston in the saddle. Robert’s last three rides for the trainer as I write included two gold medallists, whilst the third was beaten a neck into second place.
CHEPSTOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Chepstow: 35
Favourite stats: 13 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 3/7 (42.8%)
Trainers of winners at Chepstow in 2013:
2--Vic Dartnall (9/2 & 7/2)
2--Mark Gillard (9/4* twice)
2--Martin Keighley (7/2 twice)
2--Sophie Leech (25/1 & 7/2)
2--Donald McCain (1/7* & 5/2)
2--Seamus Mullins (28/1 & 7/2)
2--Jeremy Scott (6/4** & 4/1)
2--Michael Scudamore (10/1 & 20/1)
2--Mark Sheppard (6/4* & 11/2)
2--Colin Tizzard (9/2 & 11/4*)
1--Mark Bradstock (5/2*)
1--R.B. Chanin (10/11*)
1--Rebecca Curtis (7/2)
1--Henry Daly (11/4*)
1--John Ferguson (10/3)
1--Philip Hobbs (7/2)
1--Richard Lee (16/1)
1--Graeme McPherson (28/1)
1--Neil Mulholland (6/4*)
1--Paul Nicholls (10/11*)
1--David Pipe (5/1**)
1--Andrew Price (66/1)
1--David Rees (7/1)
1--Harry Whittington (4/1*)
1--Venetia Williams (7/1)
29/35 winners scored at odds of 10/1 or less
Trainers of beaten favourites:
4--Paul Nicholls (7/4-9/4-11/4-8/11)
2--Rebecca Curtis (11/8 & 11/4)
2--Bernard Llewellyn (9/4 & 3/1)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (5/1** & 6/4)
2--Venetia Williams (10/11 & 5/6)
1--Bob Buckler (2/1)
1--Claire Dyson (7/2)
1--Tom George (2/1)
1--Mark Gillard (10/11)
1--Philip Hobbs (6/4**)
1--Susan Johnson (6/4)
1--Donald McCain (5/2)
1--Gary Moore (11/4)
1--Fergal O'Brien (3/1**)
1--David Pipe (5/2)
1--Brendan Powell (9/4)
1--Tim Vaughan (3/1**)
1--Evan Williams (11/4)
One mile Listed event due to be contested at 3.00: Favourites have won four of the last eight events during which time, six gold medallists were returned at odds of 5/2. That said, three of the other winners during the last nine years have scored at 25/1, 20/1 & 14/1.
Hornboy (scheduled to contest the 8.20 event on the card) was Jeremy Noseda’s only potential runner at Wolverhampton this week and with Jeremy having won with his last two runners at the time of writing, the tip might be worth taking if the Medicean colt is offered the green light at the weekend. Jeremy boasts a recent strike rate of 32% at the track via thirty-one winners, whilst amassing an LSP figure of eleven points.