Daily Stat Pack

Daily Stat Pack, 8th May 2013

Daily Stat Pack

Daily Stat Pack


2012 ‘May Meeting’ stats:

Only five favourites won via twenty-one races during which time, seventeen winners scored at odds of 9/1 or less.

Aidan O’Brien (5/2-11/10-Evens…all favourites) and Richard Fahey (8/1-11/2-3/1) led the way on three winners apiece, whilst Donald McCain (10/1 & 100/30) was the only other trainer to saddle more than one winner.

1.45: Twelve of the seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the last fifteen years.  Thirteen of the last fifteen winners have scored at 9/1 or less.  Five of the last ten winners have emerged from traps one or two.

2.15: ’Team Hills’ has fittingly (Robert Sangster’s name was added to the title six years ago) won this Cheshire Oaks three times in the last fifteen years and Charlie saddles two runners on this occasion. Fourteen of the eighteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.

2.45: This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril. Low numbers invariably rule the roost as four of the last six results (see below) confirm.  The most recent result is listed first as in all cases with draw details this week.

‘Draw factor' (eighteen and a half furlongs):

13-8-19-4 (16 ran-soft)
1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)
5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)
4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)
13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)
1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)
4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)
2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)
7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)
13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)
9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)


3.15: Only on three occasions during the last fifteen years has a runner emerging from either trap one or stall number two failed to gain a toteplacepot position in this event. The haul of just three gold medals in the process is nothing to write home about but the toteplacepot stat is impressive given that an average of thirteen horses have contested the race during the period.  Sixteen of the eighteen favourites have been beaten since 1997, whilst nine market leaders have finished in the frame during the period.
'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)
7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-7-5 (13 ran--good)
4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)
7-2-8 (14 ran--good)
6-7-4 (13 ran-good)
2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)
4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)
1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)
8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)
6-4-1 (12 ran-good)
6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
3.50: John Gosden has saddled four of the last ten winners (not represented every year) and Space Ship might improve the ratio on behalf of the yard,   Eleven of the last thirteen winners have scored at 3/1 or less.  Favourites have won seven of the last eight contests, whilst thirteen of the last sixteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.  Sir Michael Stoute has won the race three times of late whereby Russian Realm cannot be ruled out of the equation.


'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

11-7-2 (13 ran-soft)
6-3-8-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
2-8 (7 ran--good)
10-1-7 (11 ran--good to firm)
2-4-5 (9 ran--good)
4-10-1 (11 ran-good)
7-3-8 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-1 (6 ran-good to soft)
3-1-2 (8 ran-good to soft)
6 (4 ran-good to firm)
7-4 (7 ran-good to firm)
1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)
4-1 (5 ran-good)
2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-8-3 (10 ran-good)




Number of races at Newcastle: 22

Favourite stats: 5 (22.7% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/1

Leading trainers of winners at Newcastle in 2013:

3/10--Michael Dods (25/1-12/1-7/2**)

3/11--Richard Fahey (8/1-11/4-16/1)

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2/4--Eric Alston (22/1 & 16/1)

2/5--David Barron (3/1* & 7/2)

2/6--Alan Swinbank (5/2** & 7/2)

17/22 winners to date were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--David O'Meara (5/2-3/1-5/4-9/4)

3--Richard Fahey (7/4-7/4-5/2)

2--Richard Guest (14/5 & 11/4)

2--Kevin Ryan (8/13 & 7/2**)



Given the Ralph Beckett stats offers for Kempton on Tuesday, I can reveal that James Fanshawe matches Ralph’s 23% strike via 39 winners, though his LSP reading ‘only’ amounts to 66 points!




Number of races at Kelso: 36

Favourite stats: 11 (30.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/11 (36.4%)

Leading trainers of winners at Kelso in 2013:

4--Sue Smith (8/11*-16/1-Evs*-10/3)

3--Donald McCain (6/1-4/7*-4/1)

3--Nicky Richards (7/4-3/1-5/2)

3--John Wade (20/1-11/1-16/1)

2--Brian Ellison (9/4 & 5/2*)

2--Chris Grant (5/1 & 13/8*)

2--Keith Reveley (Evs* & 10/1)

2--J. Walton (10/1 & 10/11*)

33/36 winners to date have scored at odds of 11/1 or less (twenty-eight at a top price of 6/1).

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

3--D. McCain (Evs-1/4-11/8)

2--Nick Alexander (11/4** & 11/4)

2--David Pipe (10/11 & 11/10)

2--Pauline Robson (7/4 & 6/5)



Hughie Morrison saddles Decana in the 4.35 event, the trainer boasting a strike rate of 26% via thirty-seven winners at Southwell during the last five years.  Hughie tops up that impressive ratio with level stake profits of thirty points for good measure.

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