Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature

Well I Declare 15th February 2012

Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature

Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature

After the recent decimation of the racing programme, the big thaw is well under way and we will now hopefully see an end to the disruption and abandonments of the last fortnight or so. With this in mind, Malcolm Boyle has once again cast his trained eye over the forthcoming meetings seeking out those winning states and interesting betting angles for us. Here's Mal's take on proceedings:

 

WEDNESDAY 15/02: 

Kelso: 

General stats: Lucinda Russell has saddled more winners (24) than any of the other represented trainers at Kelso on Wednesday as well as boasting the pest LSP figure of the handlers that have five or more gold medallists to their name during the last five years.

2.40: Five and six-year-olds have shared four of the five renewals to date, whilst favourites have secured three contests.

3.10: We still await the first winning favourite following three renewals.

4.10: Three of the four contests to date have been won by market leaders.

4.40: The three winners thus far have been returned at 66/1--40/1--14/1.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Charlie Mann held six options at the meeting earlier in the week, suggesting that the trainer is keen to improve his impressive 12/37 stats at the course.  Charlie boasts a level stake profit of over twenty-one points for good measure.

 

Kempton: 

General stats: Hackett (5.10) is an interesting declaration given that Shaun Lycett has won with three of the eight runners he has saddled at the venue thus far.  The four-year-old races from the right area of the weights according to past results, albeit only two races have been contested.

5.10: Both favourites (5/1 & 9/4) have obliged to date.

7.10: Market leaders (3/1 & 15/8) have won both contests thus far.

 

Lingfield: 

General stats: Jim Crowley has ridden one more winner than George Baker regarding jockeys who are riding at Lingfield today, George being twenty winners clear of third placed Luke Morris.  Mark Johnston remains in great form and with a 21% strike rate at this venue, all of Mark’s runners at Lingfield are entitled to plenty of respect.

2.00: Five of the last nine renewals have been won by favourites during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1.

3.00: We still await the first successful market leaders following three contests.  Just one of the three favourites secured a toteplacepot position.

3.30: Don’t ever listen to whingeing trainers.  Four-year-olds have won the last five renewals of this event yet there are no vintage representatives engaged this time around!

4.00: Four-year-olds have won four of the five renewals whilst winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence.

4.30: Four-year-olds have won four of the last six contests and in the years which ‘escaped’ the junior runners, a total just three vintage representatives were beaten.

 

THURSDAY 16/02: 

Leicester:

General stats: With a very busy schedule for Friday, Nicky Henderson still held eight options for Leicester On Thursday at a venue where the Seven Barrows maestro boasts a 45% strike rate which has produced a level stake profit of nineteen points.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.30: Six renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged.  That said, bookmaker’s have not had things going all their own way as the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 9/1 which given its handicap status, is not a bad record at all.

Hunter chase event scheduled for 3.00: Four of the five renewals have seen secured by favourites whilst the other gold medallist was returned at just 3/1.

Novice chase contest scheduled for 3.35: Only one of the three market leaders has secured a toteplacepot position thus far (no winners).

Two mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.05: Just one (joint) favourite has scored via six renewals.

Class 5 handicap chase event scheduled for 5.05: We still await the first successful market leader following six contests, whilst the last four winners have been burdened with a minimum weight of 11-3.  Four of the last five gold medallists scored at 25/1-14/1-12/1-11/1.

 

Musselburgh: 

General stats: Richard Johnson had one booked ride at Leicester and here at Musselburgh on Thursday whereby it will be a tip in itself regarding the direction Richard takes!  Johnson’s strike rate of 3/7 stands the closest inspection should the pilot travel north of the border.

 

Kempton: 

General stats: Richard Rowe has his team in good order just now and the trainer’s strike rate at Kempton stands at 5/18, boasting an LSP figure of fifty-three points for good measure.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Philip Makin rides this track as well as any jockey which his 22% strike rate proves, notwithstanding an LSP reading of nearly eighteen points.  Philip is eighteen winners clear of the next best pilot in terms of the represented jockeys at the track on Thursday.

 

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FRIDAY 17/02: 

Fakenham: 

General stats: Cannot help but note that despite top runners entered at his local track for the re-routed Newbury meeting, Nicky Henderson (41% strike rate at this venue) held seven entries at the Norfolk track on Friday.

Selling handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.30: Five renewals have passed by without a successful favourite being recorded, whilst 66/1 and 16/1 winners were recorded during the period.

Beginner’s Chase scheduled for 2.00: Three of the last four favourites have obliged, whilst the other market leader was beaten less than two lengths when securing the silver medal.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle race scheduled for 2.35: Four clear market leaders and one co favourite have won via seven contests, the biggest priced winners having scored at 5/1.

Class 3 handicap chase scheduled for 3.05: Lucy Wadham has trained two of the last three winners and Emperor Concerto was her only potential runner earlier in the week.

Novice handicap hurdle event scheduled at 3.40: Favourites have won both renewals thus far.

Bumper event scheduled for 4.45: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the last five renewals.

 

Newbury:

General stats: Nick Williams matches the 26% strike rate of Paul Nicholls at Newbury, albeit the Devon based trainer has saddled just fourteen per cent of the number of horses that Paul has declared in recent times.

‘Game Spirit Chase’ scheduled for 12.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last seven winners and Hold Fast was Paul’s only potential runner at the five-day stage.  The biggest priced winner during the last eight years was returned at 5/1 (three winning favourites).

Paul Nicholls has won four of the last five contests and now that his retired warrior Denman has had his name added to the title of this event (scheduled for 12.40), Paul’s two potential runners should be treated with plenty of respect.

Thirty one of the last thirty-six horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions in the Betfair Hurdle (scheduled for 1.15) carried weights of less than 11-2 (including seven of the last nine winners), whilst Nicky Henderson has trained four of the last twelve gold medallists. Nicky has also claimed an additional four toteplacepot positions in the process which makes for exceptional reading in what is always a competitive event.  Gary Moore has snared two of the last four renewals whilst five-year-olds have won three of the last five contests.  Five-year-olds secured gold, silver and bronze twelve months ago.  Six of the last thirteen favourites have finished in the frame (two winners).

Novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.50: Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last six winners.  Nicky Henderson was responsible for eleven of the forty-two penultimate stage entries.  The biggest priced winner during the last eight renewals was a 7/1 chance, whilst favourites come into the contest on a hat trick.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.25: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests.

‘Scilly Isles’ Novice Chase scheduled for 2.55: The last five favourites have won this event.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.30: The last eight winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more, whilst five-year-old have secured three of the last four contests.

 

Sandown:

General stats: For the second successive season, Sandown has suffered regarding Newbury’s re scheduled meeting, though it’s worth noting that leading trainer Paul Nicholls still potentially supports the card with three runners in the mix at the time of writing. Paul is ten clear of Nicky Henderson on the twenty-nine winner mark, with only three other potentially represented handlers in double figures, namely Alan King, David Pipe and Philip Hobbs.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.10: The last six winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more.

Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last nine winners of the ‘Royal Artillery’ which is scheduled for 3.15.

Class 4 novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.50: Five-year-olds have won three of the last four contests, with Nicky Henderson having saddled two of the gold medallists.

Novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.25: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick, whilst six-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests.

 

Lingfield: 

General stats: Two of the last five runners saddled by Tom Dascombe had won at the time of writing, with two other inmates securing silver medals during the period.  Tom boasts a 27% strike rate at Lingfield, stats which have produced an LSP figure of sixty-four points. Dascombe held three options for this meeting earlier in the week.   

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Farmers Hill was already ‘jocked up’ for the scheduled 6.45 event, with trainer Mark Hoad having saddled three of his ten runners at Wolverhampton to winning effect thus far.

 

SATURDAY 18/02: 

Ascot: 

General stats: John Ferguson held two options for the closing bumper event with unbeaten horses which makes for interested reading given his 2/2 record at the venue.  On a larger scale, Nicky Henderson rules supreme at Ascot, particularly in the hurdling sector.

Class 2 novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.15: Favourites have won two of the five renewals to date during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 3/1.

‘Reynoldstown’ event scheduled for 1.50: Nicky Henderson comes into the race on a hat trick, whilst six and seven-year-olds have equally shared the last eight renewals.

Grade 1 Betfair Chase (scheduled for 3.00): Market leaders have secured five of the last six renewals.

Two mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.10: Nicky Henderson has saddled both five-year-old winners to date.

Bumper event scheduled for 4.45: Nicky Henderson has secured four of the last six contests.  Nicky was not represented on the other two occasion!

 

Haydock: 

General stats: Emma Lavelle (3/11) and John Wade (2/8) are two trainers to keep on the right side, albeit Donald McCain tends to mop up plenty of races here, several winners of which are owned by Trevor Hemmings.

‘Victor Ludorum’ scheduled for 1.35: Favourites have secured the last five renewals of this Class 2 event.

Six-year-olds have won the last four renewals of the ‘Albert Bartlett’ which is scheduled for 2.10.

Favourites have failed to land a blow in this Grand National trial event since 2002 which is scheduled for 3.20.

Novice handicap chase event scheduled for 4.30: Winning favourites are conspicuous by their absence via six contests thus far.

 

Wincanton: 

General stats: Young O’Farrell boasts incredible figures of 7/18 at this venue and it’s worth noting that Wishes And Stars was his only booked mount earlier in the week. On the training front, keep a watchful eye on the runners from the yards of Susan Garner (4/14), Grant Cann (2/6) and Alison Batchelor (2/5).

Class 4 two and three-quarter mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.25: Four of the last five winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

Two and three-quarter mile handicap hurdle (Class 3) scheduled for 2.00: Alan King’s only potential runner was Lovcen with the trainer coming into the race on a hat trick.  Six renewals have slipped by without a successful market leader having been recorded

Two mile five furlong handicap chase event scheduled for 3.10: Favourites have won four of the last six contests.

Grade 2 ‘Kingwell Hurdle’ scheduled for 3.45: Eight of the last nine winners have been returned at odds of 9/2 or less, stats which include four successful market leaders.

Two mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.50: Five of the last six favourites have obliged, during which time the biggest priced winner was returned at just 5/2.  Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last six winners, not having been represented on one of the other three occasions.

 

Lingfield: 

General stats: Six of Bryan Smart’s last seven runners had finished ‘in the three’ (two winners) at the time of writing and with a strike rate of 31% at Lingfield, representatives should be kept on the right side.

 

SUNDAY 19/02: 

Ffos Las: 

General stats: John Tudor was down to ride Description at either Haydock or here at Ffos Las this weekend I guess the rider will be hoping to ride in Wales given his 2/3 record at the track.  Richard Lee is having a great season and the trainer held three options here earlier in the week, boasting a 6/17 strike rate at the venue.  An LSP reading of twenty-one points has also been recorded since the course opened for business back in 2009.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Vic Dartnall has plenty of horses entered this week, though it is his trio at Market Rasen which attract the eye, given Vic’s 3/7 ratio at the course. There is an extremely limited amount of history involved at Sunday’s two meetings.

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