Well, I Declare!

Well I Declare: 20th March 2012

Well, I Declare!

Well, I Declare!

Good Morning Everyone and welcome to Mal Boyle's weekly racing preview, now in its new permanent slot of Tuesday mornings. There's generally more action on a Tuesday than a Sunday, so Mal has slightly adjusted his working week for us. Let's see what he's dug out for us this week:

TUESDAY 20/03:

Exeter:

General stats: Although both riders boast the same 22% strike rate at Exeter, this is one of the few venues in the land where Richard has ridden more winners than Tony McCoy.  Richard has ridden thirty seven winners at the venue compared to Tony’s twenty three, albeit via an additional sixty nine mounts.

2.30: Three of the six favourites have finished in the frame (one winner) to date, whilst sixteen of seventeen available toteplacepot places have been claimed by horses starting at 10/1 or less. Only one of the 35 horses starting at 11/1 or more has troubled the judge.

3.00: Philip Hobbs held just one entry (Marchand D’Argent) at the penultimate entry stage which is interesting, given that Philip has secured three of the seven renewals of this event.  Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

3.30: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals and a Paul Nicholls raider held every chance when coming down twelve months ago to bring successive victories to an end.

5.00: Six-year-olds have secured three of the four renewals thus far, whilst claiming six of the 12 available toteplacepot positions.  Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame (without winning).

 

Kempton:

General stats: Ralph Beckett boasts an LSP figure of over seventy points at Kempton via a 21% strike rate.  His Shamardal newcomer Finesse is Ralph’s only runner on the card, the filly having also held an entry later in the week.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Brian Ellison’s 24% strike rate at Southwell is only one per cent inferior to that of Mark Johnston and with a superior LSP figure of twenty eight compared to Mark’s five, anything Brian saddles at this venue on the level is worth a second glance.

 

WEDNESDAY 21/03:

Haydock:

General stats: Donald McCain has saddled nearly three times as many winners (34) than the next nearest handler (Sue Smith) relating to potentially represented yards at Haydock on Wednesday.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.40: Six and seven-year-olds have equally shared the last four renewals.

Class 4 handicap hurdle over two miles scheduled for 3.50: Five-year-olds won the first three renewals before a vintage representative finished second in a short field contest twelve months ago.

Two and a half mile ‘Fixed Brush’ event scheduled for 4.55: Donald McCain has saddled all three winners to date with the trainer holding three options for this year’s event at the time of writing.

Five-year-old have secured five of the nine available toteplacepot positions in the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.15), stats which include two (28/1 & 5/2) of the three winners.

 

Hereford:

General stats: Rebecca Curtis (five hurdle winners--three chase--ratio of 7/11 in the bumper division) has saddled a third of her runners at Hereford to winning effect.  Rebecca only had five representatives in the early part of the week and every one of them was at this venue.

Conditional jockeys event scheduled for 2.30: Favourites have won both renewals thus far by an aggregate distance of seventeen lengths.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.40: Six-year-old favourites have secured both races thus far.

Class 5 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Seven-year-olds carrying 11-5 or more have won both renewals to date.

 

Warwick:

General stats: Alan King held seven options on the card at the weekend and as Alan has only saddled more winners at Huntingdon than at Warwick throughout the land, his runners at the track demand plenty of respect.  Alan has saddled nine more winners here than Nicky Henderson which tells you everything you need to know, whilst securing a positive LSP figure for good measure.

Two mile five furlong maiden hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Six-year-olds have won four of the six renewals to date with five-year-olds securing the other two contests thus far.

Class 4 two mile novice hurdle scheduled for 2.55: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 via the last five contests.  The five favourites to have run date (last year’s marker leader was withdrawn at the start) have snared three gold and two silver medals, whilst five of the six winners were returned at odds of 9/4 or less.

Three mile five furlong handicap chase due to be contested at 3.30: The last five winners have carried weights of 11-4 or more.  Eight of the last nine jollies have been beaten (includes three pairs of joint favourites), albeit three market leaders have finished in the money during the period.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle due to be contested at 4.35: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-2 via just the six contests to date.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Ron Harris had saddled fifteen winners in 2012 at the time of writing and with an LSP figure of nearly forty two points at the track during the last five years, his seven potential runners at the venue in the early part of the week are worth a second glance.

 

THURSDAY 22/03:

Carlisle:

General stats: Venetia Williams saddled twelve beaten runners during the Cheltenham Festival but her 33.3% strike rate here at Carlisle is worth consideration, especially as her team were going well before last week’s big meeting. Venetia saddled a winner at Sunday’s meeting at the venue via just two runners on the card.

 

Chepstow:

General stats: Nick Williams and Vic Dartnall boast an combined LSP figure of thirty five points whilst offering similar respective 22% and 23% per strikes rate at the venue.

Novice hurdle event for mares scheduled for 2.10: Three of then last four renewals have been won by favourites of one description or another.  Market leaders have accounted for four of the last six contests (top priced winner of 6/1 during the period) since a 200/1 chance scored in 2005!

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.10: Six and seven-year-olds have equally shared the last four renewals of this contest between them.  Although only one favourite has scored via nine renewals since 2003, the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 10/1.

Two mile three furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.45: Market leaders come to the gig on a hat trick having secured an aggregate winning distance of 24 lengths during the last two years.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20: Nigel Twiston-Davies has saddled gold and silver medallists via just two renewals of the penultimate toteplacepot event on the card thus far and HUNTERS LODGE was Nigel’s only option at the penultimate entry stage.  Having saddled fourteen beaten horses at the Cheltenham Festival last week (just one silver medallist), Nigel will be keen to post some winners on the board.  Hunter’s Lodge held alternative engagements at Warwick on Wednesday and on Newbury’s card on Friday at the time of writing.

Five-year-olds have won the last four renewals of the closing bumper event which is was due to be contested at 5.25.


Fontwell:

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General stats: Anthony Honeyball’s runners generally slipped under the radar in February as the trainer boasted 6/17 stats at the time.  With a Ffos Las winner saddled at the weekend adding to the tally, the yard could be on a roll again at a venue where the trainer has a strike rate of 29%.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Northern based trainer Tom Tate held two entries at Kempton this week and with the trainer offering a strike rate of 22% at the venue, Tom’s runners are worth noting.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Seven of the last eleven runners saddled by Mark Johnston had won when I checked the stats on Sunday and taking his 24% strike rate at Dunstall Park into account, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore his raiders.

 

FRIDAY 23/03:

Newbury:

General stats: Nick Williams continues to send his runners to Newbury to good effect, boasting a 26% strike rate in recent times.  That said, Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are locked on 57 winners apiece in the last five years at the venue offering an aggregate strike rate of 22.9%.

Two mile five furlong maiden hurdle scheduled for 2.10: Six-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests with vintage representatives coming to this year’s gig on a four-timer.

Class 2 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.25: Philip Hobbs has won this event every other year since 2006 whereby his only penultimate stage entry TONY STAR warrants close inspection with the trend due to be extended this time around.  Tony Star just happens to be a five-year-old, vintage representatives having won five renewals of this event during the last decade.

Hunter chase contest due to be contested at 5.00: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick with three favourite having prevail via six renewals thus far.

A race for conditional and amateur riders scheduled for 5.30:  The last ten renewals have been won by horses returned at odds of 5/1 or less (six market leaders obliged during the study period).  Six-year-olds have won five of the last six contests, whilst nine winners during the last decade have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

 

Sedgefield:

General stats: Four of James Ewart’s last five runners had finished ‘in the three’ at the time of writing whereby his 27% strike rate (3/11) at Sedgefield should be taken into consideration if he offers the green light to Frontier Boy who is scheduled to contest the 4.35 event on Friday.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: It should be noted that at the time of writing when not too many jockey bookings for the meeting had been ‘confirmed’, Hayley Turner’s name was amongst them, the jockey having ridden no less than sixty seven winners at this venue alone.  And still some people suggest there is no place in the sport for lady riders! Hayley rode 322 winners (plus plenty more abroad) in four years between 2008 and 2011 whereby such people need to rethink their strategy when assessing jockey bookings.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Comments about the horses saddled by Mark Johnston at Wolverhampton earlier in the analysis should be taken into account, whilst John Gosden’s strike rate of 22% at the venue is worth noting.  John had saddled ten of his twenty six runners in 2012 to winning effect when his stats were last perused.

 

SATURDAY 24/03:

Bangor:

General stats: Dr Richard Newland had a couple of raiders pencilled in at Bangor and having recorded figures of 3/11 at the Welsh venue to date, Richard’s representatives are worth keeping on the right side when the trainer offers his inmates the green light.

Seventeen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.50: Five-year-olds have won five contests during the last decade, whilst favourites have secured five of the last eight contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at odds of 8/1.

Class 3 two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.50: Eight renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won though that said, bookmakers have not had things going all their won way as the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 8/1.  The last six winners have scored at 4/1 or less.  Eight-year-olds carrying weights of 10-11 or more have won three of the last five renewals.

Three mile handicap hurdle event due to be contested at 4.25: We still await the first successful market leader following seven renewals.  Just one of the last four favourites has secured a toteplacepot position.

Class 5 seventeen furlong handicap chase scheduled for 5.00: Favourites come to the gig on a  four-timer.

 

Kelso:

General stats: Lucinda Russell saddled her biggest winner to date at the Cheltenham Festival which was a well deserved reward for her consistent form in the training ranks.  Lucinda has saddled more winners (26) than the other potentially represented handlers at the track on Saturday which is a fine testimony to her ability. 

Seventeen furlong Class 3 handicap chase event scheduled for 3.30: We still await the first successful favourite following four renewals during which time, just one market leader has finished in the frame.

 

Newbury:

General stats: Oliver Sherwood’s recent Exeter winner Florafern was the trainer’s only potential runner on the card earlier in the week, Oliver boasting stats of 8/40 during the last five years.  That said, Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are locked on 57 winners apiece in the last five years at the venue offering an aggregate strike rate of 22.9%.

Juvenile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.30: Only one favourite has obliged via nine renewals since 2003.

Class 4 novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.10: Four of the last eight favourites have obliged during which time, six winners have been returned at odds of 3/1 or less.

Seventeen furlong handicap chase scheduled for 4.15: The first four favourites (via three renewals) all finished out of the frame, though market leaders of one description or another have won the last three contests.

Nicky Henderson held two options for the ‘junior bumper’ finale scheduled for 4.50.  Nicky has won two of the last three renewals.

 

Stratford:

General stats: Dr Darcey was John Berry’s only potential runner at the course on Saturday, John having saddled four of his ten runners at the track to success in recent years.  Charlie Longsdon is another trainer whose runners deserves plenty of respect at the venue.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.45: Favourites have won all four renewals, the races having been equally shared by eight and nine-year-olds thus far.

Two mile seven furlong handicap chase scheduled for 4.55: All four favourites have finished out with the washing.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe, Keith Dalgleish and David Barron are just three of many trainers who have raiders pencilled in for Saturday who target Lingfield to decent effect.

 

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2 replies
  1. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Cheers Dennis

    Good luck over the weekend….and beyond!

    I will be back on Tuesday with more of the same.

    Take care….Mal

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