Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature

Well I Declare 22nd February 2012

Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature

Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature

The cold spell seems to have gone for the time being and racing has returned to some form of normality. There's plenty of racing scheduled between now and the end of the weekend, so Malcolm Boyle has once more given us his thoughts about the upcoming fixtures. He's got all those vital stats for us as we take on the bookies yet again: here's what he has found for us this week...

 

WEDNESDAY 22/02: 

Doncaster: 

General Stats: Surviving NH race meetings at Doncaster are a rarity but when racing does take place, top jockeys such as Tony McCoy (35% strike rate) and Robert Thornton (26%) are worth keeping on the right side, as is Dominic Elsworth who has ridden six winners from twenty-four opportunities.  On the training front, Nicky Henderson (19/76), Paul Nicholls (12/45) and James Ewart (4/12) are names to note.

1.55: Favourites (both trained by Nicky Henderson) have won two of the three contests to date.

2.25: The three renewals have produced a top priced winner of 100/30, stats which include one successful market leader.

3.30: We still await the first successful market leader following three renewals during which time, only one favourite has finished in the frame.

4.05: Only two of the last six favourites have finished in the money, whilst successful market leaders have been conspicuous by their absence during the study period.

4.40: Both favourites (5/4 and 15/8) have obliged in this Hunter Chase event thus far.

5.10: Two of the three favourites have won the closing bumper event.

 

Ludlow: 

General Stats: Jackie Du Plessis is a trainer worth noting at Ludlow, irrespective of whether the two potential runners this week take their chance at Ludlow.  The trainer has saddled three winners via just four representatives to date.  Names more familiar to you to consider include John Ferguson (2/2) and Nicky Henderson (38/99).

1.35: Seven of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (the last seven), statistics which include four winners.

2.05: This is the second heat of the previous contest whereby the same stats obviously apply.

3.10: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals with four of the seven market leaders having finished in the frame to date (one winner).

4.15: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals (14/1--7/1--11/2) whilst three of the six market leaders have finished in the frame to date (one winner).

 

Kempton: 

General Stats: Although his strike rate and LSP figure is disappointing, Jim Crowley must be mentioned in despatches, now having ridden 100 winners at the Sunbury circuit!  Disappointing LSP figures are another way of pointing out that Jim’s winners tend to be well supported which from a punter’s perspective is perfectly acceptable.  The leading three trainers in terms of strike rates potentially represented on Wednesday are Andrew Balding, Marco Botti and Michael Wigham.

 

Lingfield:

General Stats: David Griffiths has four potential runners at the track this week and boasting a 4/11 ratio, the trainer’s representatives should always be treated with plenty of respect.  Mark Johnston (21%) continues to raid this venue to great effect given the number of his raiders.

 

THURSDAY 23/02: 

Huntingdon: 

General Stats: Barry Geraghty boasts an amazing 41% strike rate (13/32) at Hunting though that said, young Jack Quinlan’s (38%--6/16) record also demands attention.  This is another track where Nicky Henderson’s runners perform exceptionally well, whilst Jeremy Scott’s 4/6 ratio stands the closest inspection given his three potential runners on the card.

Class 3 novice chase event scheduled for 3.00: Favourites have won the last five renewals, whilst six-year-olds come to the gig on a five-timer.

Mares novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.00: Six-year-olds have won all three contests thus far.

Hunter chase event scheduled for 4.30: Just one favourite has obliged via six renewals though the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at just 13/2.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 5.00: We still await the first successful market leader following seven contests, whilst six-year-olds have landed five of the last six renewals.

 

Lingfield (NH): 

General Stats: Yacht London Lady is an interesting potential runner on both this and Huntingdon’s card on Thursday.  Young Brendan Powell is due to ride the horse and with Brendan boasting 2/3 figures at Lingfield, I guess the pilot would prefer this venue. Charlie Mann has saddled six winners via just seventeen runners at this venue during the last five years, whilst Nicky Henderson and Tim Vaughan also saddle more than their fair share of winners.

 

Kempton: 

General Stats: Favourites have a 40% strike rate in non handicap events at the venue in recent times, boasting 29% in handicap races which is an above average strike rate.  

 

Southwell: 

General Stats: Seven pound claimer Josh Baudains might not be a familiar name to you but the young pilot has ridden five winners at Southwell via just eleven rides to date!  Josh had two potential rides booked earlier in the week.

 

FRIDAY 24/02: 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sandown: 

General Stats: Don’t be too quick to knock an each way line through the chances of Kadoushki and Doushkirk if they take their chances on Friday as John Berry has saddled two of his five runners at Sandown to winning effect. Neil King (4/15) is another underrated trainer to respect with his horses at the venue.  

Conditional jockeys event scheduled for 1.50: The last three winners have scored at 25/1--14/1--12/1 whilst just two favourites have won via the last eight renewals.  Seven-year-olds have secured five of the eight contests during the study period.

Two mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.25: Although only two favourites have prevailed via the last eight renewals, the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at odds of 7/1.  Four of the last five winners carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Class 4 two-mile novice hurdle scheduled for 3.00: Five-year-olds have secured four of the eight available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include two winners (10/1 & 17/2).  Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame (no winners) with the shortest priced 8/15 market leader letting the side down.

Class 2 two-mile novice chase scheduled for 3.35: The last three favourites (following the success of the inaugural 8/13 market leader) have failed to secure toteplacepot positions though to be entirely fair, the trio contested win only and short field events.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle qualifier scheduled for 4.10: Seven contests have slipped by since a winning favourite was recorded whilst five-year-olds have secured four of the last five renewals.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.40: Only one of the five favourites (via three renewals) has secured a toteplacepot position (no winners).

The biggest priced winner of the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.10) was returned at 13/2 via the last seven contests during which time, two favourites have obliged.

 

Warwick: 

General Stats: Dr Richard Newland boasts an LSP figure of over twenty points via a 25% strike rate (four winners) at the venue. Richard held two options at the time of writing.  Nigel Twiston-Davies has been going through a lean spell but saddled a winner last weekend and Nigel boasts the best LSP figure (in excess of forty points) of potentially represented yards at Warwick on Friday.

Three mile novice chase event scheduled for 2.35: The biggest priced winner via three renewals to date was returned at 4/1 (one successful favourite).

Novice hurdle qualifying event scheduled for 3.10: Six of the last seven winners have scored at odds of 11/4 or less, stats which include three winning favourites.  Four six-year-olds have won during the study period with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four timer this time around.

Three mile handicap chase event scheduled for 3.45: Four of the last seven contests have been claimed by favourites whilst nine-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals.

The last seven winners of this juvenile hurdle event (scheduled for 4.20) have scored at odds of 7/2 or less, stats which include three successful market leaders.

 

Lingfield: 

General Stats: Skystream is Ian Semple’s only potential runner this week and having trained four of his nine runners at Lingfield to winning effect, Ian’s raider is worth an each way saver if offered the green light.

 

Wolverhampton:

General Stats: Precious few jockeys who have ridden the most winners at a venue also head LSP figures but then again, Joe Fanning is no ordinary pilot.  Having ridden seventy-seven winners at Dunstall Park during the last five years, Joe also boasts an LSP figure in excess of seventy points. Falcon’s Reign is Jeremy Noseda’s only potential runner at Wolverhampton on Friday, the trainer boasting current stats of 20/61 at the track.

 

SATURDAY 25/02: 

Chepstow:

General Stats: Lawney Hill has saddled two winners at Chepstow via just six runners and her only potential runner at the track on Saturday was Dunlough Bay who was due to contest the closing bumper event.  The six-year-old was also declared in a similar event at Fontwell on Sunday.

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 2.05: Six-year-olds have won four of the five renewals whilst two favourites have obliged.  The last four winners have scored at odds of 3/1 or less.

Class 4 two-mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.10: Just one favourite has obliged via five renewals to date, others winners having scored at 40/1--16/1--14/1.

 

Kempton (NH): 

General Stats: With Nicky Henderson having saddled sixty winners at Kempton during the last five years, the trainer is twenty-eight gold medallists clear of second placed Paul Nicholls during the period.

Given the general stats offering above, it will come as no surprise to learn that Nicky Henderson leads Paul Nicholls 3-2 via the last five renewals of the juvenile hurdle event which is scheduled to open the meeting at 2.00.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.30: Seven-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick, whilst eight-year-old shave won three of the previous four renewals.  Horses carrying weights of 11-4 or more have won six of the last eight contests, whilst favourites have secured five of the last nine races.

Grade 3 three-mile handicap chase event scheduled for 3.05: Philip Hobbs has a magnificent record in this event and the fact that the trainer only relies on Planet Of Sound this time around is a tip in itself.  The stable is experiencing a ‘cold spell’ just now however, whereby readers are advised to check results over the last few days before emptying piggy banks.  Only one of the last eight favourites has prevailed though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at just 11/1 which in a competitive race like this, is a decent enough record.

Six renewals have slipped by since a favourite won the ‘Dovecote’ (scheduled for 3.40) during which time, four five-year-olds have prevailed.

Cristal Bonus was the only Paul Nicholls representative declared at the penultimate entry stage, the trainer having saddled five of the last six winners of the ‘Pendil‘.  Market leaders have won four of the last five contests, whilst seven-year-olds come to the part on a four-timer.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.45: Winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence in the last nine renewals of this contest.

 

Newcastle: 

General Stats: David O’Meara (3/9) and Michael Dods (3/8) are perfectly capable of saddling winners at Newcastle on major race days.

Two and three-quarter mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.45: All seven available toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying a minimum of 11-4 or more.  All three favourites have finished in the frame (one winner), albeit a 2/11 market leader could only snare the silver medal two years ago.

Two and a half handicap chase contest scheduled for 2.20: The last nine winners have carried weights of 10-12 or more, whilst three favourites prevailed during the study contest.  Sue Smith has saddled the winner of three of the last four contests.

Two mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.55: Four of the five winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more.

‘Eider Chase’ scheduled for 3.25: Six renewals have slipped by since a favourite obliged whilst the last seven gold medallists carried 11-0 or more.

Two mile novice hurdle contest scheduled for 4.00: Four of the five market leaders have finished in the frame, stats which include three winners.

Three mile novice chase event scheduled for 4.35: Favourites have won three of the last four contests.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 5.10: The last three market leaders have prevailed.

 

Lingfield:

General Stats: Junoob was Tom Dascombe’s only potential runner on the card with the trainer boasting a strike rate of 27% via twenty-nine winners at the venue.  

 

SUNDAY 26/02: 

Fontwell: 

General Stats: Denis O’Regan is riding like a man possessed at the time of writing and with just one booked ride at Fontwell at the five-day stage, Philadelphus (scheduled to contest the 2.05 event) might be a way type to consider. Anthony Honeyball boasted recent figures of 4/8 at the time of writing and with a 5/16 ratio here at Fontwell, the chance of any representative receiving the green light from the trainer should be respected.  

Two and three-quarter mile novice chase scheduled for 2.35: Three of the four favourites have obliged but don’t take too much for granted as the market leader which ‘missed out’ was a Paul Nicholls representative which was sent off at 1/4!

Grade 2 ‘National Spirit Hurdle’ scheduled for 3.40: Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 11-7 or more during which time, three favourites obliged.  The biggest priced winner during the last decade was an 8/1 chance, whilst David Pipe and Alan King have both saddled two ‘recent’ winners.

‘Foxhunters Trial’ scheduled for 4.15: Paul Nicholls has saddled five winners during the last decade whilst nine of the ten winners in that time were returned at 5/1 or less (five winning favourites).  Nicky Henderson’s potential runner Barber’s Shop might go all the way to the top in this sector of the sport, having failed to fully realize his undoubted potential talent down the years.

Five-year-olds have won four of the six renewals of the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.15) with just one favourite having prevailed to date.

 

Towcester: 

General Stats: Susan Nock has saddled two of her four runners at Towcester to winning effect whereby her three potential representatives are worth a second glance.  Grant Cann (4/15) is another trainer generally ‘off the radar’ to treat with plenty of respect at this venue.

Two mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: The six renewals have produced a top priced winners of just 9/4 during the which time, four favourites have prevailed.

Selling handicap hurdle contest scheduled for 2.50: Five of the last six favourites have finished in the frame, albeit only one market leader secured the gold medal during the period.  Two of the last three winners have scored at 40/1 and 22/1 whilst the last six winners have carried a maximum weight of 11-2.

Two mile three furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.20: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last four contests whilst five of the last six gold medallists have carried weights of 11-2 or more.  The biggest priced winner was returned at odds of 6/1 during the which time, two favourites prevailed.

For the latest Irish Racing Trends, click here.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1