Well, I Declare!

Well I Declare: 27th March 2012

Well, I Declare!

Well, I Declare!

The sun is shining, there's a week's racing to look forward to and Malcolm Boyle has just completed his weekly preview: what's not to be happy about?

So, without further ado, let's see what mal has picked out for us this week, shall we?

Mal starts this week with a general comment about the racing programme:  "The main factor over the next few weeks is the number of ‘new’ meetings staged which happens around the Easter period every year.  The date of Easter changes from year to year whereby the Grand National is fitted in where best in the eyes of the people who run the sport and new fixtures are ‘slotted in’ accordingly."

TUESDAY 27/03:

Hereford:

General Stats: Two of the up and coming trainers excel at Hereford on past performances.  Rebecca Curtis boasts a record of 15/46 via a 33% strike rate, whilst Charlie Longsdon has recorded a level stake profit of one hundred and eighteen points via ten winners.

2.10: We still await the first winning favourite following three contests, though two favourites have finished in the frame thus far.

2.40: Four of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include two winners.

 

Market Rasen:

General Stats: Two of the last six horses saddled by Kim Bailey have won, whilst the trainer boasts a recent strike rate of 35% via eight winners at the Lincolnshire venue.  Kim has two declarations on the card.

 

Southwell:

General Stats: David Nicholls (154 points) and David Barron (121) boast tremendous level stake profits at Southwell during the last five years.

3.30: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the nine available toteplacepot positions via three renewals, stats which include winners at 5/1 and 11/4.  Today’s two vintage representatives could offer each way/toteplacepot value, namely Slatey Hen and Ever Roses.  Richard Guest saddles Slatey Hen and it’s worth noting that the yard are enjoying a good period (nine winners this month), having landed a 53/1 forecast in this event twelve months ago.  Only one of the four favourites (winner of its respective race at 11/4) has finished in the frame.

5.30: Favourites have secured both renewals to date.

 

WEDNESDAY 28/03:

Ludlow:

General Stats: Rebecca Curtis is rapidly making a big name for herself in the sport and yet again, her stats here (7/26) stand out from the crowd.  I have reported the fact many times that Tony McCoy’s bookings for the yard are worth heeding and her four five-day stage entries are worth following if the relevant beasts receive the green light, especially if Tony is booked to ride them.

Two mile claiming hurdle race scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have secured five of the nine available toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include two of the three winners which were sent off at 9/1 and 4/1.  All three favourites have finished in the frame (one winner).

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.50: Although two of the last three market leaders have obliged, the other five favourites during the last decade all finished out with the washing.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20: All six winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-1 thus far.  Five of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include two winners via six renewals.

Hunter Chase event scheduled for 4.50: Six of the last seven favourites have finished in the money, stats which include four winners.

Four-year-olds had won six consecutive contests before an 11/8 six year-old Nicky Henderson favourite spoiled the figures twelve months ago in this closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.20).

 

Taunton:

General Stats: Lawney Hill has saddled four of her nine runners to winning effect at this venue whereby her two potential runners on the card create interest.  Paul Nicholls remains the man to follow however in more general terms.  Paul’s 34% ratio is all the more impressive when taking into account his sixty four winners at Taunton during the last five years.

 

Lingfield:

General Stats: Because of the amount of racing staged at Lingfield these days, not too many trainers boast healthy LSP stats, though Tom Dascombe (level stake profit of sixty-two points) bucks the trend.

 

Kempton:

General Stats: Richard Hannon is just two winners shy of the one hundred mark at Kempton during the last five years.  Readers should not back the trainer ‘blindly’ however as unfortunately, punters would have suffered a 152 point loss to level stakes during the period.

 

THURSDAY 29/03:

Ffos Las:

General Stats: Anthony Honeyball (4/10) and Richard Lee (6/20) have created something of a stir since racing began at this venue in 2009, though Nicky Henderson and Tony McCoy have ruled the respective roosts in general terms.

 

Newcastle:

General Stats: Chris Grant has saddled three of his last eleven runners to winning effect at the time of writing (6/1-11/4-2/1) and with the trainer boasting stats of 5/22 at Gosforth Park, stable representatives are worth a second glance.

 

Kempton:

General Stats: Luke Morris and Adam Kirby are both due to ride at the meeting having ridden 95 winners apiece at the Sunbury circuit during the last five years.

 

Wolverhampton:

General Stats: Charlie Hills boasts a level profit stake of five points at the venue during his brief training career thus far via 4/18 stats.

 

FRIDAY 30/03:

Newcastle:

General Stats: Two of the last three horses saddled by David O’Meara had won at the time of writing and with David boasting a strike rate of 29% (4/14) at Newcastle in recent times under the NH code, his four potential runners at the two-day meeting are worth taking into account.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Favourites have secured two gold and one silver medal thus far, the biggest priced winner to date being returned at 5/4.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.35: We still await the first successful favourites in recent times via six renewals during the last decade.  The six winners were returned at 33/1-22/1-12/1-10/1-6/1-9/2. The last five winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4.

Two and a half mile novice handicap chase contest scheduled for 4.10:  We still await the first winning favourite following three renewals.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 5.15: John Wade was not represented last year having won the first two contests via 9/2 and 100/30 chances.  John held one option for this year’s event at the time of writing, namely course and distance winner Harris Hawk with James Reveley already booked to ride.

 

Wetherby:

General Stats: If Richard Johnson and/or Felix De Giles ride at the meeting, readers are advised to offer plenty of respect to their mounts.  Richard has ridden ten of his twenty-three mounts (43%) to winning effect in recent times, whilst Felix boasts stats of 8/20 (40%) during the period.

 

Lingfield:

General Stats: A few decent priced winners have come our way this year via the runners of David Griffiths at Lingfield whose strike rate stands at 32% (6/19) which has produced an LSP figure of fourteen points.

 

Wolverhampton:

General Stats: Frank Sheridan is just the type of trainer to produce an upset when attention is focused elsewhere and his runners this week have a pre-Doncaster ‘shock factor’ to take into consideration.

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SATURDAY 31/03:

Doncaster:

General Stats: Richard Fahey was the only trainer at last year’s two day meeting to saddle more than one winner (three in total at 11/1, 13/2 & 11/2) whilst just four of the sixteen favourites obliged (13/8, 7/4, 10/3 & 5/1).  The trainers of the successful favourites respectively were Richard Hannon, Alan Bailey, John Quinn and Michael Bell.  No trainer saddled more than one beaten favourite, the shortest priced market leader failing to score being sent out by John Dunlop at odds of 5/4.  Last year’s toteplacepot dividend was £19,426.50 (just two favourites finished in the frame).  Out of interest, four figure dividends were also recorded in each of the previous two Lincoln day meetings.

‘Spring Mile’ scheduled for 2.05: Four-year-olds have secured eight renewals during the last decade during which time, just one favourite has obliged.  Eight winners were returned in double figures ranging is odds between 10/1 and 33/1.

‘Cammidge Trophy’ scheduled for 2.40: The last six winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst just one favourite has prevailed via the last eights contests.  A trio of three-year-olds were involved at the penultimate entry stage, though no junior winners have been recorded since Falcon Hill prevailed at 11/1 for Mark Johnston back in 2002.  That said, only five three-year-olds have subsequently contested the event.

‘Lincoln Handicap’ scheduled for 3.15: Roger Varian held two options at the time of writing and having saddled five of his ten runners at Doncaster to winning effect thus far, my ante post interest surrounds the relevant beast, namely Eton Forever, Roger’s only potential runner all week.  Willie Haggas has trained two of the last five winners whereby his only entry though to Saturday (Fury) could carry my cash as a saver.  Two of the last three favourites have prevailed (as have three of the last seven), whilst four market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade.

Effect of the draw via the last eight renewals at Doncaster during the last decade:

16-19-6-15 (21 ran-good)

1-5-10-14 (21 ran-soft)

9-3-2-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-3-16-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-21-2-1 (22 ran-good)

23-16-12-24 (24 ran-good)

6-7-1-12 (24 ran-good)

7-6-13-12 (23 ran-good to soft)

The other two renewals were contested at Redcar and Newcastle whereby the effect of the draw is obviously not relevant.

‘Brocklesby’ event scheduled for 3.50: Just one (co) favourite has won this famous two-year-old event during the last decade, though bookmakers have not had things going all their own way as eight of the ten winners were returned at odds ranging between 5/2 and 9/1.  The other point to note is that Richard Fahey won with six of the first 16 two-year-olds he saddled last term yet having won this race twice in the last five years, Richard was not represented at the five-day stage.  Dare we suggest at this early stage that Richard’s juveniles are not quite as forward this time around?  We shall see.

 

Stratford:

General Stats: Warren Greatrex has saddled three of his eight runners at Stratford to winning effect. Phil Middleton (3/10) and Sarah Humphrey (3/11) are other trainers worth a second glance relating to their declarations.

 

Uttoxeter:

General Stats: Nicky Henderson will probably welcome the lack of attention relating to the NH code on Saturday though either way, his 14/50 record (28%) at Uttoxeter in recent seasons warrants plenty of respect.

Two and a half mile maiden hurdle event scheduled for 3.05: Philip Hobbs won the first two contests before saddling the bronze medallist twelve months ago in the third renewal.  Philip held two options at the penultimate stage.

Mares bumper scheduled for 5.15: Five-year-olds have secured five of the nine available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include two of the three winners at 16/1 and 8/1.  We still await the first successful favourite, whilst just one market leader has finished in the frame.

 

Kempton:

General Stats: Non handicap races have produced a decent ratio for favourites at the Sunbury circuit.  Favourites boast a 42% ratio in two-year-old events, whilst 41% of market leaders have won races confined to three-year-olds during the last five years.

Maiden fillies juvenile event scheduled for 2.55: Richard Hannon held two options at the five-day stage whilst Richard Fahey was potentially represented by his Pastoral Pursuits raider Woodland Mill.  Richard’s March foal is related to Here Now and Why who was beaten a length first time up before scoring on his next two starts.

‘Roseberry Handicap’ scheduled for 3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-3 via the last ten renewals of this famous Class 2 eleven furlong handicap event.  Just one favourite has prevailed during the last decade, though three of the last four market leaders have finished in the frame from a toteplacepot perspective.

London Mile Qualifier--One mile handicap scheduled for 5.10: Mark Johnston was responsible for three of the seventeen five-day acceptors with Franny Norton on standby by to ride the trainer’s selected representative.

 

OVERVIEW OF DONCASTER ON SUNDAY 01/04:

You will have read about Richard Fahey’s record last year in Saturday’s general stats and it’s worth noting that all three of Richard’s winners were saddled on the second day of the meeting.  Richard also saddled winners at 6/1 and 5/1 on the second day of the meeting the previous year, whilst a 9/1 representative scored on Sunday 29th March 2009.

Five of last year’s market leaders on Sunday were beaten, the winners scoring at 15/8 (David Brown) and 100/30 (Mick Easterby). Beaten favourites were saddled by Barry Hills (2/1), Michael Bell (3/1), Richard Fahey (15/8), Tom Dascombe (5/2) and Mark Johnston 7/4.

Willie Haggas only held one entry all week through to Saturday but has three options on Town Moor on Sunday at the time of writing.

Sunday’s winners last year would have yielded a huge loss had they been followed for the rest of the season:

Jeer: Beaten on his next six starts until winning last time out.

King Of Jazz: Beaten on seven subsequent outings.

Lord Aeryn: Seven subsequent efforts without scoring.

King Of Eden: Won next time out before eight subsequent defeats.

Cracking Lass: Beaten on all three subsequent outings.

Barbican: Beaten in next three races before winning on four of his last five outings.

She’s A Character: Beaten in seven subsequent starts.

 

Toteplacepot dividends in the last three years relating to Sunday’s Doncaster results:

2011: £740.90

2010: 15,352.70 (just one favourite finished in the frame)

2009: 247.50

Average toteplacepot dividend during the last three years: £5,447.03

 

Class 2 Apprentice handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 3.20: Four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals, whilst two 5/1 favourites have obliged via the last three contests.  Four market leaders have finished in the frame since 2002 (eight renewals), stats which include three winners.  Richard Fahey has saddled a 6/1 winner and two placed horses at 16/1 and 13/2 in the last three years.  The standard of the winner has improved almost year on year as these official ratings confirm (2002-2011): 76-80-82-86-83-88-99-96.

Effect of the draw during the last decade (eight renewals):

4-17-8-14 (20 ran-good)

2-16-8-13 (18 ran-good to soft)

2-10-22-21 (20 ran-good to firm)

1-6-4-3 (17 ran-soft)

15-11-6 (15 ran-good)

3-7-2-5 (22 ran-good)

9-10-22-14 (22 ran-good)

22-12-20-15 (21 ran-good to soft)

 

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